The Hardball Times -- Ben Jacobs http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-06-19T08:32:15+00:00 Scouting Strasburg http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/scouting-strasburg/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/scouting-strasburg/#When:02:07:15
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The biggest difference between them is on offense, where the Red Sox ranked second with 845 runs scored and the Rays were ninth with 775. That difference is the main reason the Red Sox should pull out a victory in the ALCS. Of course, we can look a lot more in depth than that, starting with the pitching matchups.

Games 1 and 5 will feature Daisuke Matsuzaka (2.90 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 1.6 K/BB) for Boston against James Shields (3.56 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 4.0 K/BB) for Tampa Bay. Games 2 and 6 will be Boston's Josh Beckett (4.03 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 5.1 K/BB) against Tampa Bay's Scott Kazmir (3.49 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 2.4 K/BB). Games 3 and 7 will pit Boston's Jon Lester (3.21 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.3 K/BB) against Tampa Bay's Matt Garza (3.70 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 2.2 K/BB). And Game 4 will be Tim Wakefield (4.13 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 2.0 K/BB) for Boston against Andy Sonnanstine (4.38 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 3.4 K/BB) for Tampa Bay.

Shields probably has been less irritating than Matsuzaka this season, but Matsuzaka has done a better job of preventing runs despite issuing so many walks. The problem is that Matsuzaka's walks have prevented him from pitching as deep into games on a consistent basis as Shields does. Overall, this match-up is probably even.

Beckett vs. Kazmir normally would be a classic power match-up, with Beckett getting a slight edge because of his longer record. However, Kazmir was the better pitcher this season and Beckett's still dealing with an oblique injury. He didn't pitch well against the Angels in the first round and it looked like the injury was bothering him. If he hasn't improved since Sunday, Kazmir probably will have a big advantage in this match-up. As is, you probably have to give Kazmir a slight edge going in.

Lester has been the most consistently good pitcher for the Red Sox this season, and he was flat-out dominant in his two ALDS starts. Garza had a good season, but it wasn't quite as good as Lester's and he got tagged for five runs in six innings against the White Sox. This is Boston's biggest advantage on the mound.

Wakefield quietly had a very good season, although you never know what you're going to get from him in any given game. He was significantly better at home (3.10 ERA) this season, and he'll pitch there in Game 4, but he wasn't at all good against the Rays (5.87 ERA in three starts). Sonnanstine had a solid season and didn't allow a run in two starts against the Red Sox. Given the unpredictability of Wakefield and the inexperience of Sonnanstine, this one's probably a toss-up.

The bullpen is a little bit of a strange match-up; the Red Sox have a set closer while the Rays go somewhat by committee, but both teams have several good relievers.

Jonathan Papelbon posted a 2.34 ERA in the regular season and then pitched five scoreless innings in the ALDS as Boston's closer. He's backed up by Justin Masterson (2.36 ERA), Hideki Okajima (2.61 ERA), Manny Delcarmen (3.27 ERA) and Javier Lopez (2.43 ERA).

Grant Balfour has been Tampa Bay's best reliever, posting a 1.54 ERA and a ridiculous 12.7 K/9 rate during the regular season. The Rays also have J.P. Howell (2.22 ERA), Dan Wheeler (3.12 ERA, picked up the one save in the ALDS) and Chad Bradford (2.12 ERA, although that 17/15 K/BB ratio is terrible).

The Red Sox probably have the edge in bullpens just because of Papelbon, who has a longer record of being an excellent reliever than anybody on either team. If the Rays add Troy Percival to the ALCS roster, it helps the Red Sox no matter what role he's used in. Similarly, the Red Sox would be helping Rays if they add Mike Timlin.

Offensively, the Red Sox led the league with a .358 on-base percentage and were third with a .447 slugging percentage, while the Rays were tied for fifth with a .340 OBP and eighth with a .422 SLG.

The Red Sox will suffer some from not having Mike Lowell available, but they still have five very good hitters in Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia (people were worried about him after a terrible ALDS last season too, and then he went 15-for-47 with two homers and four doubles in the ALCS and World Series). And Jacoby Ellsbury posted only a .729 OPS during the regular season, but he was on fire late in the year and carried that momentum through the ALDS.

Tampa Bay's offense relies heavily on Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena to produce runs, and both were excellent in the ALDS. But Dioner Navarro, B.J. Upton and Akinori Iwamura also stepped up with monster performances in the series, and Tampa Bay probably will need another two or three players to step up and help Pena and Longoria this series.

One of the biggest problems for Tampa Bay's offense may be just putting the ball in play. The Rays were second in the league with 1,224 strikeouts this season, while Boston's pitchers led the league with 1,185 strikeouts. And the Red Sox allowed a .390 SLG that was second-best in the league, which will make things hard on a Tampa Bay team that was mediocre at hitting for power in the regular season.

Prediction: Red Sox in seven.

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The Red Sox could easily have swept this series, or the Angels could have taken Game 4 and forced a Game 5 where anything could have happened. Heck, they could have swept the series themselves without too many plays changing.

Of course, none of that actually happened, so let's take a look at the biggest reasons the Red Sox did win in four games.

  • Jon Lester. Much was made before the series about Josh Beckett being unable to pitch Game 1 for Boston. Lester went out and showed how silly that talk was by allowing just a single unearned run in 14 innings, taking the Red Sox through seven innings with a lead in both his starts. And Lester needed to be that good to give the Red Sox a chance to win Games 1 and 4 because his opponent, John Lackey, only allowed four runs in 13.2 innings (a 2.63 ERA).

  • Outs on the basepaths. The Angels made two outs on the bases that really shifted momentum in Games 1 and 4. In Game 1, Boston led 2-1 in the eighth when Vlad Guerrero hit a one-out single. Torii Hunter followed with a pop single behind first base, and Kevin Youkilis corralled the ball quickly and threw out Guerrero trying to take third. Instead of first and second with one out, they had a runner on first with two outs and didn't score. In Game 4, it was tied in the ninth when pinch-runner Reggie Willits ended up at third with one out. Erick Aybar then failed to make contact on a suicide squeeze, leaving Willits dead halfway to home plate and ending the threat.

  • The closers. Francisco Rodriguez set a record for saves during the regular season, but there was nothing in his performance to suggest he was a better bet for success in the playoffs than Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon pitched five scoreless innings in the series, although he did get a blown save in Game 2 when he came in with a man on third and nobody out and retired six batters in a row. Rodriguez, meanwhile, allowed J.D. Drew's winning two-run homer in Game 2 and loaded the bases in the 10th in Game 3 before escaping with the score still tied.

  • The ninth inning. If not for that one inning throughout the series, the Angels did pretty well. In the ninth innings of the four games, Boston scored five runs and allowed none. In all the other innings, Boston scored 13 runs and the Angels scored 13 runs. Of course, this ties in pretty closely with the previous item.

  • Jason Bay. He was the best hitter for either team in this series, hitting .412 with two homers and two doubles. His two-run homer in the sixth inning of Game 1 gave the Red Sox a 2-1 lead, his three-run shot in the first inning of Game 2 gave the Red Sox a 4-0 lead and his one-out double in the ninth inning of Game 4 set up Jed Lowrie for a series-winning single.

  • L.A. power outage. The No. 3 and 4 hitters for the Angels (Mark Teixeira and Guerrero) combined to go 14-for-30 in the series. Normally when your two best hitters combine for a nearly .500 average, it means you're going to score runs in bunches. In this series, however, 13 of those 14 hits were singles (Guerrero hit a double) and the two of them combined for just one RBI. No. 5 hitter Hunter also had a singles-only seven-hit performance, but he did drive in five runs. Because the Angels were hitting so many singles (36 of their 42 hits), they were mostly scoring just a run at a time. They only scored multiple runs in an inning twice (two runs both times), while the Red Sox scored multiple runs six times (with a high of four). The Red Sox had four fewer hits in the series, but they had seven more extra-base hits.

There were obviously other reasons the Red Sox won, but those were some of the big ones. Some of them (Lester, the L.A. power outage) were fairly predictable. Others (the basepath outs, in particular) were not. Ultimately, the Red Sox were the more talented but less healthy team and they got the breaks they needed to win the series.

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The simple fact is that the Red Sox have a better team than the Angels. Boston outscored its opponents by 151 runs this season, while the Angels only outscored theirs by 68. The run differentials say the Red Sox should have been eight games better than the Angels, not five games worse. You can scoff at run differentials all you want, but last year they said the Red Sox should have been 13 games better the Angels and then they went out and pounded the Angels into oblivion.

Realistically, this series could go either way as the teams are very evenly matched, despite the fact that the Angels took eight of nine during the regular season. It's worth noting that of those nine games, only four featured a Boston starting pitcher who is likely to make a start in this series, so what happened in those games isn't really all that informative.

Speaking of pitchers likely to make a start in this series, let's get down to those matchups. Since this is the extended series (if they go the full five games, it will take them eight days), both teams can get by with just three starting pitchers. Games 1 and 4 will feature Boston's Jon Lester (3.21 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.3 K/BB) against LA's John Lackey (3.75 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 3.3 K/BB). Games 2 and 5 will pit Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka (2.90 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 1.6 K/BB) against LA's Ervin Santana (3.49 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 4.6 K/BB). And Game 3 will be Boston's Josh Beckett (4.03 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 5.1 K/BB) vs. LA's Joe Saunders (3.41 ERA, 4.7 K/9, 1.9 K/BB).

As you can see, all six of those pitchers are quite good. The Red Sox would rather have had Beckett going in Games 1 and 4 because of his history as a postseason ace, but he's actually only been their third-best option most of the year.

Lester has been Boston's most consistent pitcher this season. When you account for their home parks, he's been a good bit better than Lackey. If you were going to award the advantage to one pitcher or the other based on what they've done this season, you'd have to give it to Lester. Lackey obviously has a longer track record of success, but aside from his near no-hitter in July, not much of that success has come against the Red Sox (including the playoffs, he has a 4.71 ERA against them in eight starts over the past four seasons).

Matsuzaka was third in the AL in ERA, but he also led the league in walks. However, as far as weaknesses go, that's a good one to have against the Angels, who were 12th in the AL with 481 walks this season. Matsuzaka was so effective despite his wildness because he was so hard to hit; he allowed a .211 batting average that was easily the best for any pitcher who threw at least 160 innings (and second to Justin Duchscherer among pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings). Santana was certainly less maddening for fans of his team than Matsuzaka, but he was not a more effective pitcher overall.

The third game is the only one where the Angels appear to have an advantage based on this season, but Beckett's peripherals suggest a pitcher with better than a 4.03 ERA and his postseason resume is outstanding (1.73 ERA in 72.2 innings). The big concern is his health, which is the reason he's not starting Game 1. If his oblique allows him to pitch up to his capabilities on Sunday, it would be hard to argue that Saunders gives his team a better chance to win. Based on health, you probably have to give Saunders the edge here, but it's slight.

Next we come to the bullpen, where the Angels have a closer who just set the major league record with 62 saves. But that does not mean they have the better closer in this matchup. Francisco Rodriguez converted 62 of 69 save opportunities (90 percent) with a 2.24 ERA, 10.1 K/9 and 2.3 K/BB. Boston's Jonathan Papelbon converted 41 of 46 save opportunities (89 percent) with a 2.34 ERA, 10.0 K/9 and 9.6 K/BB.

They look pretty similar in every area except walks, where Papelbon has a significant advantage. That Rodriguez walks hitters about four times as often as Papelbon is significant because the Red Sox led the AL with 646 walks this season. If Rodriguez comes in to protect a lead in this series, his only weakness plays into the Boston offense's biggest strength, which turns a very even matchup of closers into a very slight advantage for the Red Sox. It's also worth noting that Rodriguez didn't pitch more than a single inning all season, while Papelbon got more than three outs in a game 13 times. It'll be interesting to see whether Mike Scioscia is more willing to extend K-Rod in the playoffs, and whether Rodriguez will be up to it if so.

The rest of the bullpen is very good for both teams. Boston has Justin Masterson (2.36 ERA), Javier Lopez (2.43 ERA), Hideki Okajima (2.61 ERA) and Manny Delcarmen (3.27 ERA) while LA has Jose Arredondo (1.62 ERA), Scot Shields (2.70 ERA) and Darren Oliver (2.88 ERA).

While the two teams have been pretty even with their pitching this season, Boston's offense has been much better. The Red Sox were second in the AL with 845 runs, first with a .358 OBP and third with a .447 SLG. The Angels were 10th with 765 runs, 11th with a .330 OBP and ninth with a .413 SLG. Those numbers are somewhat misleading because the Angels didn't have Mark Teixeira the whole season, but the offensive advantage still lies with a healthy Boston team.

The Angels have two really good hitters—Teixeira and Vlad Guerrero— (maybe three if you think Mike Napoli is really this good) and one pretty good hitter (Torii Hunter).

The Red Sox have Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Dustin Pedroia and Mike Lowell.

The big question there is the health of Lowell and Drew. Both have been severely limited by injuries in the second half of the season and they only saw action in three games between them in the final two weeks. But the news has been positive on both early this week as they work out and it sounds like both will be ready to start Game 1.

If Drew is unable to go, the Red Sox would likely move Jacoby Ellsbury to right field and start Coco Crisp in center, which would be a downgrade, but Ellsbury and Crisp have both come on strong late in the season to make their overall numbers respectable. If Lowell can't go, the Red Sox could move Youkilis to third and start Mark Kotsay or Sean Casey at first or move Jed Lowrie to third and start Alex Cora at shortstop.

With the injuries to Lowell and Drew and the addition of Teixeira in LA, the gap between the offenses is smaller than at first glance. However, the Red Sox still have the more consistently dangerous lineup. They've also added a speed element that they haven't always had that will be more difficult for the Angels to deal with if they use Napoli at catcher in every game. Ellsbury, Pedroia and Crisp are a combined 90-for-109 (82.6 percent) on steal attempts while Napoli has only thrown out 17.5 percent of attempted base stealers this season.

The difference in quality of offense is made a little bigger by the fact that LA's style is not particularly suited to playing against the Red Sox. Even with Teixeira and Napoli showing patience and power, the Angels as a team rely on putting the ball in play. They're near the bottom of the league in walks and strikeouts and have fewer "defense independent" plays (walks, strikeouts, homers, hit batters) than all but four teams. So the defense is frequently a factor when the Angels are at bat.

For the Red Sox, that's a good thing. They were fourth in the AL in defensive efficiency (the rate at which balls in play are turned into outs) and Pedroia, Lowrie, Ellsbury, Crisp and, when healthy, Drew and Lowell are all good to very good defenders. Even Bay, who's nothing special in the outfield, helps them out because he's a big improvement over Manny Ramirez defensively.

If Drew, Lowell and Beckett were all completely healthy, I'd say the Red Sox have a healthy advantage and might even predict another sweep. As is, Boston probably has a slight edge that could grow if those players show they can be effective.

Prediction: Red Sox in four.

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If the season ended today, the Red Sox would indeed make the playoffs. But they're still looking up at the surprising Tampa Bay Rays, and they have the New York Yankees and either the Minnesota Twins or Chicago White Sox right on their heels in the wild card race. Let's take a Clint Eastwood-themed look at how they got where they are. (Note: All stats are through Monday's games.)

The Good

The starting rotation has been the biggest strength so far for the Red Sox.

Of the five pitchers currently in the Boston rotation, four of them have been at least good. Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester have been fantastic, although Matsuzaka did miss some time to injury. Tim Wakefield has been very solid, cutting about a run off his 2007 ERA. And Josh Beckett has been good despite not being the dominant ace he was last season.

It's not a stretch to say that the Red Sox have four of the 25 best healthy starting pitchers in the AL, which is quite a feat.

Even two of the fill-ins (Justin Masterson for nine starts and Bartolo Colon for six) have been good.

All together, Boston has gotten a 3.86 ERA from its rotation, which is even better than the 4.21 mark from last season.

The offense has been quite good, mostly thanks to Kevin Youkilis, who has taken his game to another level, and J.D. Drew, who has bounced back nicely from a very disappointing first season in Boston. Both sport an OPS just south of .950.

Dustin Pedroia is following up his Rookie of the Year campaign with a similar effort his sophomore season. And Manny Ramirez was hitting better than he did in a subpar 2007 effort.

The bullpen has also been mostly good for the Red Sox, although it gets maligned frequently. Jonathan Papelbon is his typical dominant self at closer and Hideki Okajima, Javy Lopez and David Aardsma have all been good.

The Bad

The reason the bullpen gets brought up as a weakness is because two of the four pitchers mentioned above (Lopez and Aardsma), tend to not pitch in the most crucial, late-inning situations. After Papelbon and Okajima (who draws some criticism himself because his off nights are particularly tough to watch), Manny Delcarmen has generally been Terry Francona's third-favorite reliever. And while Delcarmen hasn't been flat-out awful, he's been nowhere near as good as he was in 2007.

One player is noticeably absent from the good category: David Ortiz. Boston's fearsome slugger started the season in a terrible slump. Then, just as he was getting back to his normal level, he injured his wrist. Ortiz returned in late July and has put up solid if not spectacular numbers since then. However, he felt something click in his wrist in his final at-bat Monday, and it's unclear whether it's a problem. At this point, it's unclear how effective Ortiz will be the rest of the season or even if he'll make it through the rest of the season.

The Ugly

The captain and two kids.

When Jason Varitek signed his last contract extension with the Red Sox, it was clear that the final year of that deal might be a problem. It is. Varitek's offense has completely disappeared, as he's hitting just .220 and getting on base at a .311 clip.

While everybody knew things might go south for Varitek this season, people had high hopes for rookies Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz.

Ellsbury was a dynamic addition to the Red Sox for the stretch run and in the playoffs, and Buchholz threw a no-hitter in September. This season has been a much different story.

Ellsbury is hitting an anemic .259/.323/.352 and has even begun to struggle on the basepaths, getting thrown out on three of his four steal attempts in July after going 34-for-38 in the first three months. He's gotten worse as the season's gone along, as his monthly OPS has fallen from .853 to .771 to .591 to .566.

Buchholz has struggled mightily in two separate stints with the Red Sox this season, posting a 5.94 ERA in 13 starts. He's striking out plenty of hitters (8.7 per nine innings), but he's also issuing a lot of walks (4.5 per nine innings) and batters are finding it pretty easy to get hits off him.

Unforgiven

Ramirez seemed on the verge of leaving Boston several times during his career with the Red Sox, either because he asked to be traded or because the team was growing tired of his "Manny Being Manny" moments. Each time, however, the moment passed, everybody made nice and they moved on together.

This season promised to be the most peaceful of his Red Sox career, as a happy-go-lucky Manny arrived at spring training and announced he wanted to end his career in Boston. Alas, somewhere between February and July, Manny went back to being Boston's (20) Million Dollar Baby, missing games for questionable reasons, complaining about his contract and opining that the Red Sox didn't deserve him.

This time, apparently, he went too far, and the players and coaches alike decided they'd had enough of him. GM Theo Epstein obliged and sent Ramirez along with A Fistful of Dollars (OK, I'll stop now) to the Dodgers while bringing in Jason Bay from the Pirates.

However, this isn't a disaster. As Alex Eisenberg wrote Monday, swapping Ramirez for Bay, once you factor in defense and baserunning (not to mention attitude), may not make the Red Sox any worse this season, and it certainly makes them better next season.

The Schedule

The toughest series remaining for the Red Sox are Friday through Monday at the Chicago White Sox, Aug. 26-28 at the New York Yankees and Sept. 15-17 at Tampa Bay. Those 10 games are against three of the four teams fighting with Boston for a playoff spot, and they're all on the road, where the Red Sox are an abysmal 24-33.

If the Red Sox can keep themselves in or near playoff position through Aug. 28, they figure to be in pretty good shape. After that series at Yankee Stadium, Boston will have 28 games left, and 19 of them will be in Fenway Park, where the Red Sox are 40-16.

As far as the quality of the teams the Red Sox have left, starting tonight Boston has 49 games left. About half of them (24) are against teams that are middle of the pack, within six games on way or the other of .500. Five of the other 25 are against teams worse than that, while 20 are against teams better than that. So it's not an easy schedule.

Outlook

A great deal hinges on Ortiz's wrist. If he's able to play and hit the way he has in the past, the Red Sox have a lineup with dangerous hitters in the first six slots. If he can't play or can't play up to his abilities, it will greatly weaken the lineup.

With a healthy Ortiz, the Red Sox have no real weakness. The starting lineup will be very strong, the rotation in loaded and the bullpen is good enough, especially with Papelbon at the back of it.

The Red Sox still have the best run differential in the AL, which means even though they don't have the best record in the league, they've fundamentally been the best team in the league over the first 113 games. If they continue to score 5 runs a game while only allowing 4.1, they'll almost certainly make the playoffs, whether they pass the Rays for the AL East title or hold off the Yankees and the AL Central runner-up for the wild card.

However, because they haven't taken full advantage of their impressive performance thus far, they've left themselves no margin for error. A serious injury (whether to Ortiz or another key player), a slump or just a bad bounce here and there could keep them from having a chance to defend their title.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Ben Jacobs 2008-08-06T05:06:15+00:00 Five Questions: Boston Red Sox http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-boston-red-sox3/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-boston-red-sox3/#When:04:06:15
1. Is the rotation now a concern?

Early in the offseason, Boston's rotation appeared to feature Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield, with rookie Clay Buchholz filling in for injuries or replacing an ineffective starter at some point during the season.

Now, however, Schilling's out for at least half the season and may not pitch at all this year, and Beckett's back spasms forced him to skip the trip to Japan. Beckett's eligible to come off the DL April 4, but all indications are that he'll skip Boston's season-opening trips to Oakland and Toronto and pitch the home opener on April 8. Assuming that's the case, he'll essentially miss only one start and there's no reason to expect the back to be a recurring problem.

Losing Schilling is more of a blow to the team's depth than to the team's actual chances of winning. Schilling's 41, and was likely to miss time at some point even if he didn't have this injury. And while he's had an ERA below 4.00 each of the past two seasons, he was probably more likely to be above 4.00 this season than below. Buchholz may not be able to post a sub-4.00 ERA quite yet, but there's no reason to think he can't be in the mid-4s. Replacing Schilling's innings with Buchholz's innings is unlikely to be a dramatic drop for the Red Sox.

The issue is that if somebody else gets hurt, the Red Sox will be left scrambling for a starter. Beckett has had trouble making it through an entire season without missing at least a few starts, Wakefield's 41 years old and neither Lester nor Buchholz has ever thrown more than 150 innings in a professional season, so the odds of the Red Sox making it the entire year with only five starters are very, very low.

Boston starting pitchers posted a 4.21 ERA in 2007. For them to match that this season, Beckett will need to be every bit as good as he was last year, Buchholz will have to post at worst a 4.50 ERA in his rookie season and one or all of Matsuzaka, Lester and Wakefield will need to improve on their 2007 performances. And if any of them needs to miss a start or two, whoever fills in will need to not completely stink.

2. What's going on in center field?

In Japan, Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp each started one game. That does not, however, mean they're going to split time in center field equally throughout the season.

Unless he struggles, the majority of the playing time should go to Ellsbury this season. However, Crisp will still see action because the Red Sox want to showcase him for a trade at some point. And that trade is still likely to happen before July 31. The Red Sox have been patient to not give Crisp away, which is smart. There will be a point where a contender is unhappy with the performance it's getting from center field. That team will see Crisp as a good player who isn't making too much money and isn't tied up for too many years, and will give the Red Sox a legit prospect for him.

The best guess here is that Crisp starts about a game a week and sees time as a late-inning replacement in half the other games before getting traded before the end of May.

3. Will the two biggest 2007 disappointments bounce back?

The Red Sox signed free agents Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew to big deals before the 2007 season, expecting big things from both. Instead, Lugo posted the worst season of his career and Drew had his worst season since he was a rookie.

It was only two games, but it was good to see Lugo hit three singles in six at-bats in Japan. His problem in 2007 wasn't power or patience, but hitting singles. His home run, double and walk rates were pretty much in line with the rest of his career, but his rate of hitting singles was by far the lowest of his career. If he can bring his singles rate back in line with the rest of his career, his OPS can easily climb by 100 points.

Drew didn't play in either game because of back issues, which is kind of funny. Coming into 2007, injuries were what you worried about with Drew, not lack of performance. Instead, he played 140 games for just the third time in his career, but he had a .796 OPS after four consecutive seasons with an OPS of at least .885.

At 32, Drew is getting older, but he's not so old that his ability to hit should be disappearing completely. It's much more likely that 2007 was either a fluke off-year or a difficulty adjusting to Boston and the AL. It may be unrealistic to get his OPS back up to his .890 career average, but he can certainly split the difference between that and last season's .796. Whether he can play 140 games again is a different question.

4. Are the Red Sox going to get any offense from their catcher?

If you had to pick one candidate to have a significant decline from his 2007 performance, it would be Jason Varitek. After three consecutive seasons with an OPS+ around 120 from 2003-2005, Varitek's OPS+ fell all the way to 83 in 2006. He bounced back nicely last season with a .788 OPS for a 103 OPS+.

However, he's now 36 years old and his swing is very slow. In the two games to open the season in Japan, he didn't just go hitless, he looked like he might not get a hit all season. That's obviously an exaggeration, but striking out six times in your first eight at-bats, even for somebody who has always struck out a lot, is not a good thing. Varitek should still hit some home runs and draw some walks, but it wouldn't be a shock to see his batting average drop into the .230s, as it did in 2006.

5. Which strategy to defend a World Series is better?

After winning the 2004 World Series, the Red Sox made significant changes before the next Opening Day. Of the 25 players on the World Series roster, seven were gone by the start of 2005, including starting pitchers Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe and starting shortstop Orlando Cabrera.

This time, only three players who were on the 2007 World Series roster are missing from the 2008 team. What's more, everybody who either had at least 200 at-bats or pitched at least 50 innings last season is back, at least for now, so even the guys who are gone were minor factors in 2007.

Which way is better? Well, the Red Sox made some good decisions in 2004 and some that weren't great. Letting Martinez leave was smart, because it was nearly certain that he wasn't going to stay healthy for the entire four-year deal he wanted, and he hasn't. But the team probably should have just re-signed Cabrera, because the Sox have used three shortstops in the three seasons since he left and all have been disappointments.

This season, the Red Sox really had only two tough decisions. The first was whether to re-sign Mike Lowell, and he made that easy on them by deciding to accept less to stay in Boston than he could have gotten elsewhere.

The other was whether to trade several players, including at least one player who figures to play a big role this season, to land Johan Santana. Since they easily could have trumped the package the Mets gave the Twins, it's pretty clear that they decided they didn't need Santana and would keep their young guys. If Schilling's injury had been revealed three months earlier, it's very possible this offseason would have had a different look.

Ultimately, this year's title defense should go better than the last one. The Red Sox made it back to the playoffs in 2005, but they didn't look like a particularly good team by the time they were losing to the White Sox. With all the reliable veterans returning and several promising youngsters getting bigger roles, Boston should be every bit as good when the 2008 playoffs start as it was at the end of the 2007 playoffs.

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Start with the starting pitching, which was brilliant.

Josh Beckett set the tone, allowing one run in seven dominant innings to win his fifth consecutive postseason start. But everybody expected the Boston ace to come through with a gem. The rest of the Red Sox rotation was much more questionable.

Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester had combined for a 4.23 ERA during the regular season and a 4.42 ERA during the first two rounds of the playoffs. In the World Series, they combined to allow only three runs in 16.1 innings, good for a 1.65 ERA. All three also left their games with the lead.

That none of those three pitchers was asked to finish the sixth inning is a tribute to manager Terry Francona. Knowing the offensive capabilities of the Colorado Rockies and the depth of his bullpen, he turned to the relievers as soon as his starting pitchers found trouble after the fifth.

The bullpen wasn't as dominant as it had been at times during the season, but it did enough to make sure that all four starting pitchers got the win.

Hideki Okajima, who had been nearly unhittable in the first two rounds of the postseason, allowed two big homers, allowing the Rockies to pull within a run in games three and four.

But the one reliever who never wavered was closer Jonathan Papelbon. He pitched 4.1 scoreless innings in the World Series, giving him a total of nine innings of shutout ball in the playoffs.

His usage, again, is a tribute to Francona. During the regular season, Francona asked Papelbon to get more than three outs only four times in 59 appearances. In the playoffs, he changed strategies to maximize his best reliever, sending Papelbon out for more than one inning six times in seven appearances. The Bulldog (has any player ever epitomized his college's mascot better?) came through every time.

The offense also came through when it needed to. After blitzing the Rockies for 13 runs in the first game, game two was a much calmer affair.

The Rockies led for the only time in the series until Boston's patience at the plate finally wore down Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez. In the fourth inning, it was a Mike Lowell walk, a J.D. Drew single and a Jason Varitek sacrifice fly that tied the game. The next inning, a walk started things again as David Ortiz reached on the free pass, moved up on Manny Ramirez' single and scored on Lowell's double.

That was enough for Schilling and the bullpen.

The Red Sox jumped out quickly in game three thanks to three rookies. Jacoby Ellsbury doubled twice, Dustin Pedroia hit a bunt single and starting pitcher Matsuzaka hit a two-run single in a six-run third inning that could have been even worse had Ramirez been called safe on a close play at home plate.

When Matsuzaka and the bullpen coughed up five runs of that 6-0 lead, the offense got going again with light hitters Julio Lugo and Coco Crisp reaching on a walk and a single, followed by back-to-back doubles from Ellsbury and Pedroia.

In game four, it was time for the Red Sox to chip away again, scoring single runs in the first (Ellsbury double and Ortiz single), fifth (Lowell double and Varitek single) and seventh (Lowell home run) to take a 3-0 lead.

When the Rockies scored their first run of the game in the seventh, Boston even found offense from an unexpected spot: Bobby Kielty homered on the only pitch he saw in the World Series.

Kielty's pinch-hit homer was just another example of every move Francona made working out.

After struggling during the first two rounds of the playoffs, Crisp was benched in favor of Ellsbury, who hit .438 with four doubles, four runs scored and three RBIs in the sweep and could have won a World Series MVP award before his rookie season.

But Crisp didn't go unused during the postseason—he moved into center field in the later innings while Ellsbury slid to left or right to replace Ramirez or Drew defensively. That may have prevented the tying run from scoring in game four when Ellsbury was able to track down Jamey Carroll's flyball at the wall in left, a play Ramirez may not have been able to make.

The Red Sox pitched better, hit better and were managed better during the World Series, and they proved without a doubt that they were the best team in baseball in 2007.

In fact, this is the first time since 1998 that the team that was clearly the best in the majors ended up winning the World Series. That year, the Yankees went 125-50, outscoring opponents 1,027 to 690.

The Red Sox didn't quite match New York's plus-337 run differential, but they came close. After a great regular season and a dominant postseason, they scored 966 runs and allowed 703, an advantage of 263. Including the postseason, the Yankees (plus-183) had the next-best run differential and the Rockies (plus-109) were the only other team to outscore its opponents by at least 100 runs.

With the best record in baseball, the best run differential in baseball and a World Series title, the Red Sox proved there was one simple reason they won the AL East and then beat the Angels, the Indians and the Rockies: They were the best team in baseball.

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First, the AL went 137-115 in interleague play, good for a .544 winning percentage. Over a 162-game season, that would translate to 88 wins. The NL's .456 winning percentage would translate to 74 wins. Does that mean the average AL team is 14 games better than the average NL team? No, but it does demonstrate the gap in talent between the leagues.

Second, the AL had four teams win at least 94 games this season. The NL didn't have a single team win more than 90 games.

The Red Sox just finished playing what were probably two of the four best teams in the major leagues, outscoring them 70-36 to go 7-3 over a 10-game span. Add that to their regular season numbers, and they've outscored their opponents 937-693. With that kind of run differential, they would be expected to go approximately 111-61 over 172 games, so they're probably even a little more talented than the 103-69 mark they've posted so far.

The Rockies, even with their 42-16 scoring advantage in the playoffs, have outscored opponents 902-772 this year. That should give a team about a .577 winning percentage, which would project to 98-72 over 170 games. The Rockies have hit that number almost exactly, going 97-73.

So, the Red Sox played in the better league, posted a better record and were probably even more talented than their record showed.

The disparity that those numbers paint between the two teams becomes apparent when you look at the individual players. In the lineup, there's only one position where you would definitely say the Rockies have a big advantage: Colorado shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is a lot better than Boston's Julio Lugo. Colorado first baseman Todd Helton is a better hitter than Kevin Youkilis, but it's not a huge gap. Rockies right fielder Brad Hawpe had a better season than J.D. Drew, but Drew's shown the ability to match or surpass what Hawpe did this season.

The Red Sox have large advantages at catcher (Jason Varitek over Yorvit Torrealba) and second base (Dustin Pedroia over Kaz Matsui), and third baseman Mike Lowell is a little better than Garret Atkins. In the games at Boston, the difference between designated hitter David Ortiz and Ryan Spilborghs will be massive.

Matt Holliday was Colorado's best hitter and you could try to make an argument that he's better than Boston left fielder Manny Ramirez, but Holliday's numbers on the road (.301/.374/.485) were pretty similar to the line Ramirez put up on the road (.289/.373/.498). And all Ramirez has done in the postseason is hit .400/.578/.833.

Center field would be about a wash if the Red Sox use Coco Crisp, but there's a good chance they'll start Jacoby Ellsbury instead, which would give them an advantage over Colorado's Willy Taveras.

In all, Boston's offense posted a 107 OPS+ this season (meaning it was about seven percent better than average, adjusted for league and park), compare to a 103 for Colorado. Since both teams have used mostly the same position players all season, those numbers are fairly indicative of the advantage the Red Sox should have offensively in the World Series.

The problem comes with the pitching.

Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez, Manny Corpas, Josh Fogg, Franklin Morales and Brian Fuentes have pitched 82.5 percent of Colorado's innings so far in the postseason. Those six pitchers threw only 43.6 percent of Colorado's innings during the regular season.

The difference isn't quite so stark for the Red Sox, but Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon have combined to pitch 77.4 percent of Boston's postseason innings compared to 47.5 percent in the regular season.

Since the pitching is being distributed so differently, it hardly makes sense to compare Colorado's 111 ERA+ to Boston's 123 ERA+.

Going game by game, the matchups do not seem to favor the Rockies.

In games one and five, Josh Beckett will face Jeff Francis. Beckett posted a 145 ERA+ compared to a 114 ERA+ for Francis. Both have been excellent in the postseason, with Beckett going 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA in 23 innings and Francis posting a 2-0 mark with a 2.13 ERA. Based on what he's done so far this postseason, it's hard to bet against Beckett.

Games two and six should feature Curt Schilling against Ubaldo Jimenez. During the regular season, Schilling (122 ERA+) was better than Jimenez (112 ERA+). In the postseason, Schilling has two excellent starts and one poor start for a 3.38 ERA in 18 2/3 innings. Jimenez has an excellent 1.59 ERA in his two starts, but you have to wonder how he's done it while walking eight batters in 11 1/3 innings. Against a patient and powerful team like the Red Sox, that kind of wildness could be disastrous.

Games three and seven will likely be Daisuke Matsuzaka against Josh Fogg. Matsuzaka's been very inconsistent, but he was better than Fogg over the course of the season (108 ERA+ to 97). Fogg has pitched well during the postseason so far, but at best this matchup is a push for the Rockies.

Game four is something of a wild card. With Tim Wakefield off the World Series roster, the Red Sox will probably turn to Jon Lester, who was solid but not spectacular this season (104 ERA+). The Rockies will start Aaron Cook, who posted a 116 ERA+ this season but hasn't pitched since Aug. 10. It's hard to know how he'll fare in his first action in more than two months.

The bullpens may be a tossup for the series. Papelbon (1.85 ERA in the regular season, 6 1/3 scoreless innings in the playoffs) and Okajima (2.22 ERA in the regular season, 7 1/3 scoreless innings in the playoffs) have been excellent for Boston, but so have Colorado's Corpas (2.08 ERA in the regular season, one run in 8 2/3 playoff innings) and Matt Herges (2.96 ERA in the regular season, 3 2/3 scoreless innings in the playoffs).

The biggest concern for Boston being able to win the series is that they'll have to play three games in Colorado. There are at least two reasons why that is worrisome.

First, there's no designated hitter. That means either Boston has to lose Ortiz's lethal bat, or it has to weaken its defense at first base and lose the quality bat of Youkilis. Neither option is good for the Red Sox.

Second, while Ramirez can appear to be an acceptable defensive left fielder at Fenway Park, he will be exposed as a brutal defender in the spacious outfield in Colorado. The Red Sox will be able to mitigate this in the late innings with defensive replacements (either Ellsbury coming off the bench to play left or Crisp coming off the bench to play center and Ellsbury moving to left).

Still, the Red Sox have a significantly better offense for the four games in Boston, and the teams are probably fairly even offensively for the games in Colorado. With the starting pitching favoring the Red Sox and the bullpens pretty evenly matched, the Red Sox should be able to take care of the Rockies in six or seven games.

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In this ALCS, Boston's victory boils down to these: having the pitching to shut the Indians down four times and having the power and patience to overcome a lot of double plays.

The pitching is probably the more surprising reason for Boston's win, not because the Red Sox didn't have good pitching during the regular season, but rather because their advantage in the ALCS came where you wouldn't have expected it.

The Indians were supposed to have an advantage in the first and second starters with C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona pitted against Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling. Instead, the Red Sox won three of those four matchups and could easily have won all four.

Beckett, who earned the ALCS MVP award, was amazing. He allowed three runs in 14 innings on nine hits and one walk with 18 strikeouts. His counterpart, Sabathia, struggled, allowing 12 runs in 10.1 innings on 17 hits and seven walks with nine strikeouts.

In game one, Beckett was solid while Sabathia imploded, and the Red Sox cruised to victory. In game five, Sabathia pitched much better, but Beckett threw a gem and the Red Sox eventually pulled away for an easy win.

While most people expected Beckett and Sabathia to have similar success, it shouldn't have been a shock that the Red Sox won both games, because Beckett and Sabathia were almost even in performance in the regular season. That wasn't the case with Carmona and Schilling, and the Indians were counting on Carmona to thoroughly outpitch Schilling in this series.

It didn't happen. Schilling allowed seven runs in 11.2 innings on 15 hits and no walks with eight strikeouts. Carmona yielded 11 runs in six innings on 10 hits and nine walks with seven strikeouts.

Both pitchers stunk in game two, getting knocked out of the game by the end of the fifth inning. The Indians eventually triumphed in 11 when Boston ran out of relievers and had to use Eric Gagne, who predictably opened the floodgates.

In game six, however, Schilling bounced back to pitch seven strong innings, while Carmona was even worse. He lasted only two innings and helped put the Indians in an early 10-1 hole.

On the other hand, the Indians were not necessarily supposed to have an advantage in the third and fourth starters, but they did. Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd combined to allow seven runs in 17.2 innings while Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield allowed 11 runs in 14.1 innings.

The saving grace for the Red Sox is that after losing games three and four with Matsuzaka and Wakefield pitching, Matsuzaka was able to come back in game seven and at least give the bullpen the lead after five innings.

And that's where the Red Sox had their biggest advantage: relief pitching. Yes, some of the Boston relievers (Gagne, in particular) struggled, but the duo at the end of the game was nearly perfect.

Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon each pitched five scoreless innings in the series, combining to allow seven hits and four walks while striking out six. In game seven, Okajima took a 3-2 lead in the top of the sixth and handed a 5-2 lead to Papelbon in the top of the eighth, and that was that.

The Indians were supposed to have a relief tandem just as good as, if not better than, Boston's, but it didn't turn out that way.

Rafael Betancourt was every bit as good as advertised through the first six games, pitching 6.1 scoreless innings while allowing only one hit and no walks and striking out five. In game seven, however, he entered with the Indians trailing 3-2 in the bottom of the seventh and promptly blew any chance Cleveland had of rallying. Betancourt allowed two runs in the seventh and then five more in the eighth as the Red Sox pulled away.

At least Betancourt was effective in some of the games, though. Rafael Perez made three appearances in the series and was able to get only one out each time. He allowed eight runs (six earned) on seven hits and two walks.

The advantage the quartet of Beckett, Schilling, Papelbon and Okajima ultimately held over Sabathia, Carmona, Betancourt and Perez was perhaps the biggest reason Boston had a chance to win the ALCS, even though most people would have thought the Indians had the edge when matching up those four before the series.

But even with the quality pitching they got, the Red Sox still had to score enough runs, and they tried their best to make that difficult at times.

Boston let the Indians off the hook numerous times by either failing to get a big hit with runners in scoring position or, even worse, making two outs at once. The Red Sox grounded into an amazing 14 double plays in the seven games, with the anemic bat of Julio Lugo accounting for four of them.

The Red Sox still managed to score runs in bunches, however, because they put a bunch of men on base and put 10 balls over the fence.

The top six batters in Boston's lineup (Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew) combined to go 60 for 155 (a .387 average) with 26 walks. That means each of those six players was on base approximately two times each game.

They also hit the ball hard. The six blasted 11 doubles, a triple and nine home runs. Even with all the double plays and the light-hitting bottom third of the order, that kind of production is enough to score a lot of runs.

And that's just what the Red Sox did, scoring at least six runs in five of the seven games. They were fortunate that their four best offensive games synched up nicely with their four best-pitched games. And because of that, they now have a chance to win the World Series for the second time in four seasons.

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The Red Sox aren't a particularly bad matchup for the Indians in terms of what they do, they're just a better team overall.

During the regular season, Boston scored 867 runs to Cleveland's 811. The Red Sox also allowed 657 runs, compared to 704 for the Indians. Part of that difference in runs allowed came from the defenses, where Boston is second in the AL with a .712 defensive efficiency while Cleveland is seventh with a .693 mark. So while the tied for the best record in the AL, the Red Sox were fundamentally a significantly better team.

Of course, these games aren't being played during the regular season. Cleveland's offense is probably better now than it was for much of the season, as Asdrubal Cabrera is playing every day and Franklin Gutierrez is getting significant playing time, which means the Indians aren't wasting any more at-bats on Josh Barfield and they're wasting fewer at-bats on Trot Nixon.

The problem for the Indians is that Boston's offense also appears to be better, and in a more dangerous way. While the Indians have upgraded from the terrible bats of Barfield and Nixon to the solid-but-not-spectacular bats of Cabrera and Gutierrez, the Red Sox seem to have upgraded from the good bat of hurt Manny Ramirez to the great bat of healthy Manny Ramirez.

After hitting .296/.388/.493 (a line that would have made him Cleveland's best hitter, by the way) during the regular season, Ramirez destroyed the Angels in the ALDS to the tune of .375/.615/1.125. It was only three games, but it certainly looked like taking most of September off allowed Ramirez to go into the playoffs fully healthy.

With Ramirez back at full strength, the Red Sox once again have a lineup with two terrifying hitters in it. The Indians don't have any free outs like Julio Lugo in their lineup, but unless Travis Hafner starts hitting like he did from 2004-06, they don't have anybody you're truly afraid to pitch to.

But having the less-impressive lineup isn't new for the Indians, since they just won a series against the team that had the scariest lineup in all of baseball. The difference is that they no longer have the other advantages to offset the difference in the starting lineups.

Against the Yankees, the Indians clearly had a huge advantage with the first two starters. C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona combined for a 3.14 ERA during the regular season while Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte combined for a 3.89 ERA. And the difference was probably even bigger when you take home parks into account.

The gap is much smaller against the Red Sox. Sabathia's numbers were essentially the same as Beckett's during the regular season. The only advantage he had was in the 40-plus extra innings he threw, but that doesn't matter in the playoffs. In fact, Beckett might get extra innings in the postseason if the Red Sox decide to start him on three days rest in game four. He already showed in the 2003 World Series that he's capable of pitching on short rest, and the strange ALCS schedule would then have him available on full rest for a potential game seven.

Game 2 (and either 5 or 6) is where the Indians appear to have a real advantage as Carmona (3.06 ERA) was significantly better than Curt Schilling (3.87 ERA) during the regular season. But the mitigating factor there is that Schilling has always shown the ability to step up in the postseason (he's now 9-2 with a 1.93 ERA in 16 playoff starts) and he looked fresher against the Angels than he had in a long time.

After that, the starting pitching becomes a crapshoot. Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook are thoroughly mediocre for the Indians (as much as has been made of Byrd's clinching win over the Yankees, two runs in five innings isn't that great and he was very lucky that it wasn't a lot worse), while Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield are thoroughly unpredictable for the Red Sox. It's very likely that both bullpens make an appearance by the sixth inning for any games not started by Sabathia, Carmona, Beckett or Schilling.

That leads to another advantage for the Red Sox. Against the Angels, Boston's advantage in the bullpen was that Los Angeles didn't have as many quality arms to use if they needed to keep a game close. The Indians do have as many quality bullpen arms as Boston, but they're going to allow Boston to have a huge edge at one crucial spot: the closer.

The group of Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez, Aaron Fultz and Jensen Lewis for Cleveland is a bit better than Boston's group of Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Mike Timlin and Javier Lopez. But Joe Borowski (5.07 ERA) can't even approach Jonathan Papelbon (1.85 ERA) at closer.

The Indians could make relief pitching a nice advantage for themselves if they decided not to use Borowski in a close game unless he's the last option, but they've already shown they won't do that. If there's a save situation in the ninth inning or extra innings, Eric Wedge is going to call on Borowski even if Betancourt or Perez is still available. And that might be what ends up costing Cleveland this series.

When two teams are close in talent, as the Red Sox and Indians are, you need to search for any edge you can find.

The Red Sox have the edge in defense and on offense, and the starting pitching matchups are pretty even. If the Indians took Borowski out of the equation, like the Red Sox will almost certainly do with Eric Gagne, then they'd give themselves at least a small advantage in the bullpen. Opting to continue using Borowski as they have all season will likely cost Cleveland at least one win at some point in the next week and a half.

That's why the Red Sox are going to win in six or seven games.

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