The Hardball Times -- Bobby Mueller http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-22T08:05:15+00:00 Jack Morris: the winningest pitcher of the 1980s http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/jack-morris-the-winningest-pitcher-of-the-1980s/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/jack-morris-the-winningest-pitcher-of-the-1980s/#When:09:05:15 The only two certainties in life are death and taxes.
—Mark Twain.

At times attributed to Mark Twain, Benjamin Franklin, and Christopher Bullock, the above quote isn’t exactly correct. One other certainty in life is that a sportswriter supporting Jack Morris for the Hall of Fame will ALWAYS mention two things about Morris: His 10-inning, complete-game, 1-0 shutout of the Braves in game seven of the 1991 World Series and that he won more games than any other pitcher during the 1980s.

This article supporting Jack Morris for the Hall of Fame mentions both, of course, even adding a little something extra: "Morris won more games than any pitcher during the 1980s. Every pitcher that won the most games in a given decade deep into history before that has been inducted into the Hall." It’s the second part of that statement that sent me to Baseball-Reference’s Play Index.

Yes, it’s true, every "Winningest Pitcher of the ____s" before Morris is in the Hall of Fame. But is this important? Does anyone know who the winningest pitcher of the 1970s was? Or the 1960s? Or any decade before Morris? It seems that the only pitcher ever mentioned as the "Winningest Pitcher of the ____s" is Jack Morris. This is often a big part of the writer’s argument that Morris should be in the Hall of Fame.

With the "Winningest Pitcher of the ____s" in mind, I decided to look back at the men who hold this title for the previous nine decades to see how Morris compares.




































































































































Range Pitcher Decade Wins Decade WAR Decade WAR Rank Decade ERA+ Decade ERA+ Rank Career WAR Career WAR Rank Career ERA+ Career ERA+ Rank
The 1900s Christy Mathewson 236 61.1 2nd 142 4th 87.7 14th 137 11th
The 1910s Walter Johnson 265 90.8 1st 183 1st 127.7 3rd 147 3rd
The 1920s Burleigh Grimes 190 32.4 9th 112 18th 37.2 158th 108 170th
The 1930s Lefty Grove 199 69.4 1st 162 1st 98.3 7th 148 2nd
The 1940s Hal Newhouser 170 50 1st 138 1st 56.3 52nd 130 19th
The 1950s Warren Spahn 202 58.6 2nd 126 4th 93.4 11th 119 61st
The 1960s Juan Marichal 191 56.7 2nd 136 2nd 64 37th 123 37th
The 1970s Jim Palmer 186 52.5 5th 137 2nd 63.5 39th 126 29th
The 1980s Jack Morris 162 27.9 12th 109 13th 39.3 141st 105 219th


Yikes! Two of these guys clearly do not belong with the others—Burleigh Grimes and Jack Morris. Most of the other "Winningest Pitchers of the ____s" are among the best pitchers in the history of baseball (Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove) and are more than worthy Hall of Fame pitchers. Every pitcher except Grimes and Morris not only led the decade in wins, but were also among the top five in WAR and ERA+ for that decade. Grimes and Morris, despite leading their respective decades in wins, do not come close to the others in WAR and ERA+. Let’s take a closer look:

Christy Mathewson—Winningest Pitcher of the 00s—From 1900 to 1909, Mathewson won the most games, had the second-highest WAR, and the fourth-best ERA+ of pitchers with more than 1000 innings pitched. In addition, Mathewson won 373 games over 17 seasons with a career ERA+ of 137, good for 11th all-time among pitchers with a minimum of 2000 innings pitched. He is 14th in career WAR. Mathewson was among the inaugural inductees to the Hall of Fame in 1936, getting 90.7% of the vote and joining Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, and Walter Johnson in that first class. He’s a slam-dunk Hall of Fame pitcher, regardless of his status as the winningest pitcher of the 00s. That he won more games than any other pitcher from 1900 to 1909 is incidental to his Hall of Fame credentials.

Walter Johnson—Winningest Pitcher of the 10s—From 1910 to 1919, Johnson won 265 games and accumulated 90.8 WAR with an ERA+ of 183, leading all pitchers in each category. Johnson is in the running for greatest pitcher of all time. He won 416 games with an ERA+ of 147. He is 3rd in career WAR and career ERA+. Of all the "Winningest Pitchers of the ____s" on this list, he’s the best. Johnson, like Mathewson, was part of the first class of honorees at the Hall of Fame in 1936.

Burleigh Grimes—Winningest Pitcher of the 20s—Ack! Grimes is the most-comparable pitcher on this list to Jack Morris and he clearly does not rank with the other Hall of Fame pitchers listed here. While he did win the most games of any pitcher during the 1920s, Grimes was 9th in WAR for the decade and 18th in ERA+. His rank in career WAR is 158th. His career ERA+ is 170th. In his first year of eligibility for the Hall of Fame (1937), Grimes got 0.5 percent of the vote. He received votes in 10 Hall of Fame elections over the next 18 years and never received more than 6 percent of the vote. In 1956, more than 20 years after he’d been retired, Grimes started to gain some traction in Hall of Fame voting when his total increased from 1.2 to 13 percent. Two years later, he was up to 26.7 percent. In 1960, he peaked at 34.2 percent, then dropped back down to 26.9 percent in 1962. He was not elected by the BBWAA but did get into the Hall of Fame in 1964 thanks to the Veteran’s Committee. By most measures, Grimes is among the worst starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame, and possibly THE worst.

Lefty Grove—Winningest Pitcher of the 30s—Grove, like Walter Johnson, has a case as the greatest pitcher of all time. He won exactly 300 games in his career but that total would have been much higher if his debut in the major leagues hadn’t been delayed. Grove won over 100 games for the independently-operated minor league Baltimore Orioles before owner Jack Dunn finally sold his rights to the Philadelphia Athletics, so Grove didn’t pitch in the major leagues until he was 25 years old. In the 1930s, Grove won the most games, accumulated the most WAR, and had the best ERA+ of any pitcher. For his career, Grove is 7th all time in WAR and 2nd in ERA+. He doesn’t need the title of “Winningest Pitcher of the 30s” to seal his Hall of Fame case.

Hal Newhouser—Winningest Pitcher of the 40s—like Grove, Newhouser led his decade in wins, WAR, and ERA+. Unlike Grove, Newhouser is not among the “inner circle” of Hall of Fame pitchers. Newhouser had fewer wins (207) than many Hall of Fame starting pitchers and he got the bulk of those wins in just seven seasons. From 1944 to 1950, Newhouser won 151 games with an ERA+ of 145. He won 80 games over a three-year stretch from 1944 to 1946, when he won back-to-back MVP awards and finished 2nd the third year. In the five years before and after that stretch, Newhouser never won more than 9 games. For his career, Newhouser ranks 52nd in WAR and 19th in ERA+. In 12 years on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, Newhouser was generally in the 20 percent range, peaking at 42.8 percent in 1975, the last year he was eligible. His induction to the Hall of Fame came by way of the Veteran’s Committee in 1992. His place in the Hall of Fame is almost entirely due to his excellent stretch of pitching from ’44 to ’50.

Warren Spahn—Winningest Pitcher of the 50s—Spahn doesn’t have the peak of Grove or Newhouser, but he had a longer career than either and finished with 363 wins. During the 1950s, Spahn had 202 wins, was second in WAR and fourth in ERA+. In his career, Spahn was 11th all time in WAR, but just 61st in ERA+, which ranks him just below Bob Lemon and above Bert Blyleven. Spahn was selected to the HOF in his first year of eligibility in 1973 by the BBWAA, with 83.2% of the vote.

Juan Marichal—Winningest Pitcher of the 60s—Marichal finished second to Bob Gibson in WAR for the decade and second to Sandy Koufax in ERA+. By Hall of Fame standards, Marichal had a relatively short career (16 seasons) and low number of wins (243). The bulk of his career came in 13 years between 1961 and 1973 and he was effectively done as a major league pitcher at the age of 36. Marichal finished his career with 64 WAR, good for 37th all time, and an ERA+ of 123, also 37th all time. It took him three years to be elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA, going from 58.1 percent of the vote to 73.5 percent to 83.7 percent, gaining entry in 1983.

Jim Palmer—Winningest Pitcher of the 70s—Palmer is similar to Marichal. While he did win more games than any other pitcher during the 1970s, he did not lead in WAR or ERA+, finished fifth in WAR and second in ERA+ for the decade. In his career, Palmer had 63.5 WAR, good for 39th place, two spots behind Marichal. He did outdo Marichal in ERA+, finishing at 126 and 29th place all time. Palmer was selected to the Hall of Fame in 1990, his first year on the ballot, getting 92.6% of the vote.

Jack Morris—Winningest Pitcher of the 80s—Now we get to the main man, Jack Morris. All of the pitchers above, except for Burleigh Grimes, not only led their decade in wins, but also finished among the top five in WAR and ERA+ for their decade. These "Winningest Pitchers of the ____s" include three pitchers among the top 15 in career WAR, two others in the top forty, one ranked 52nd in career WAR . . . and Burleigh Grimes, ranked 158th. Back to Morris. During the 1980s, Jack Morris won more games than any other pitcher. He was also 12th in WAR for the decade and 13th in ERA+. The pitchers who had similar value to Morris in the 80s include John Tudor, Bret Saberhagen, Charlie Hough, and Mario Soto. None of those pitchers have sportswriters banging a drum for their Hall of Fame candidacy. In his career, Morris had 39.3 WAR, good for 141st all time, just behind Javier Vazquez and a bit ahead of Al Leiter. His ERA+ is even worse—105, which ranks him 219th, in the company of Tim Wakefield and Ken Holtzman.

When it comes to "Winningest Pitchers of the ____s," Jack Morris is much closer to Burleigh Grimes than any other pitcher on this list. Grimes, as mentioned above, may be the worst starting pitcher in the Hall of Fame. Every pitcher on this list, except Grimes, has a legitimate Hall of Fame case that does not rest on their status of having won more games than any other pitcher during a specified number of years.

If you can’t build a Hall of Fame case for Jack Morris based on traditional metrics, such as wins or ERA (42nd and 326th all time), and you can’t build one on advanced metrics likes career WAR or ERA+ (141st and 219th all time), then you have to build it on one great World Series victory and a mantra, “Winningest Pitcher of the 1980s.” That mantra falls apart upon closer inspection. Jack Morris does not belong in a group that includes Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson, or Lefty Grove. He does not belong in a group that includes Warren Spahn, Juan Marichal, and Jim Palmer. He can keep company with Burleigh Grimes, but that does not make him a Hall of Fame pitcher.

Looking Ahead










































Range Pitcher Decade Wins Decade WAR Decade WAR Rank Decade ERA+ Decade ERA+ Rank Career WAR Career WAR Rank Career ERA+ Career ERA+ Rank
The 1990s Greg Maddux 176 61.1 2nd 162 1st 96.8 8th 132 17th
The 2000s Andy Pettitte 148 26.8 17th 115 15th 49.9 78th 117 71st


That being said, Morris is on the cusp of entry. He became eligible in 2000 and sat in the 20 percent range for the first five years on the ballot. In year six, he gained 7 percent, up to 33.3 percent. After eight years on the ballot, he was up to 37.1 percent. After 10 years, he was at 44 percent. He made another jump in 2010, held steady in 2011, then made his biggest leap yet in 2012, up to 66.7 percent. He’s close. If he does make it, then the narrative can continue, even if it is misleading.

As quoted above, "Every pitcher that won the most games in a given decade deep into history before that has been inducted into the Hall." Morris has a good chance of continuing this trend. If he does, the next "Winningest Pitcher of the ____s" is a no-brainer Hall of Famer—Greg Maddux. We likely won’t repeatedly hear that Maddux won more games in the 90s than any other pitcher because his accomplishments don’t need that piece of trivia to uphold his candidacy. Maddux won 355 games. He’s eighth all time in WAR and 17th in ERA+. His credentials are beyond reproach.

After Maddux, though, comes another questionable Hall of Fame candidate—Andy Pettitte. Andy Pettitte won more games than any other pitcher from 2000 to 2009, just like Jack Morris and Burleigh Grimes in their respective decades. Also like Morris and Grimes, Pettitte was nowhere near the best pitcher of the decade. In fact, he was 17th in WAR and 15th in ERA+ from 2000 to 2009, marks even worse than Jack Morris in the 80s. For his career, Pettitte is 78th in WAR and 71st in ERA+.

Still, in a few years, when Andy Pettitte hits the ballot and his career accomplishments do not make him a slam-dunk Hall of Fame pitcher, get ready to hear that Andy Pettitte won more games than any other pitcher in the 00s. There will be sportswriters who will use it to support his candidacy, but that piece of trivia shouldn’t make him a Hall of Fame pitcher. It shouldn’t work for Jack Morris either.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Bobby Mueller 2012-01-26T09:05:15+00:00 Why the steroids scandal doesn’t bother me http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/why-the-steroids-scandal-doesnt-bother-me/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/why-the-steroids-scandal-doesnt-bother-me/#When:14:34:15
Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Bobby Mueller 2009-02-10T14:34:15+00:00 If I Were a Carpenter http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/if-i-were-a-carpenter/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/if-i-were-a-carpenter/#When:04:08:15 Everybody in baseball realizes that Gil Meche has an outstanding quality to his pitches. You can talk to people and they'll tell that this guy should win 15-plus games a year. I see this guy entering the prime years of his career. Guys just don't break into the major leagues as a No. 1 or No. 2 starter. Look at Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz. It takes time.
-Royals general manager Dayton Moore, on signing Gil Meche earlier this offseason. (Bob Nightengale, USA Today)

Gil Meche in the company of Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz? Really? Being a longtime resident of Seattle, where I’ve been able to witness first-hand the thorough mediocrity that is Gil Meche, I couldn’t believe what I was reading when I happened upon this quote from Dayton Moore.

I quickly started an e-mail to my baseball buddies making fun of Moore, even researching the early-career statistics of the pitchers mentioned above to show alongside the uninspiring numbers of Gil Meche. Meche has pitched six seasons for the Mariners, for a total of 815.1 innings. These are the numbers for Meche heading into 2007 and for the pitchers named above at similar points in their careers:
Years Name      Team  Lg    W   L   G   GS  CG    IP   ERA  WHIP  K/9  BB/9  K/BB HR/9
  6  Meche      SEA  AL    55  44 147  143   4  815.1 4.65  1.44  6.3   4.0   1.6  1.2
  6  Santana    MIN  AL    59  25 184  108   4  856.0 3.31  1.13  9.5   2.8   3.4  0.9
  6  Carpenter  TOR  AL    49  50 152  135  12  870.2 4.83  1.51  6.3   3.4   1.8  1.1
  5  Glavine    ATL  NL    53  52 139  139  17  892.2 3.81  1.28  5.2   2.9   1.8  0.7
  5  Smoltz     ATL  NL    57  54 146  146  25  979.2 3.50  1.23  6.8   3.2   2.1  0.7
Looking at the numbers, Santana, Glavine and Smoltz were head-and-shoulders better than Meche is at this point. But Chris Carpenter appears similarly bad, maybe even worse. Hmm … Because Carpenter has been one of the top pitchers in the National League over the last three years, it’s easy to forget that he wasn’t a very good pitcher for the first six years of his career.

In fact, Meche had more wins and a better ERA, and the same strikeout rate. Meche has walked more batters and given up slightly more homers than Carpenter gave up during his first six seasons but, statistically, there isn’t much difference here.

So this called for further research. Gil Meche and Chris Carpenter? Does Gil Meche have a chance to turn into Chris Carpenter, as Dayton Moore and the Royals are hoping for? Is it worth $55 million to find out?

The Early-Career Similarities

Chris Carpenter is 6’ 6” tall and weighs 230 pounds. He was a first-round draft pick (15th overall) in the June 1993 draft. He didn’t pitch professionally in 1993, but started his career at the age of 19 at the rookie league level in 1994, putting up the following numbers: 
 Year   Age Level     W   L     IP    ERA   WHIP   K/9  BB/9  K/BB
 1994   19  Rookie    6   3   84.2   2.76   1.36   8.5   4.1   2.1
Meche is 6’3” tall and weighs 220 pounds. He was also a first-round pick (22nd overall), taken in the 1996 draft. He pitched just three innings in rookie ball in 1996, then pitched regularly at two levels of Single-A at the age of 18 in 1997, with good results:
 Year   Age Level     W   L     IP    ERA   WHIP   K/9  BB/9  K/BB
 1997   18  A-/A+     3   6   86.2   3.84   1.33   7.9   2.9   2.7
At this point, both pitchers are off to a similar start, with Meche performing as good or better while pitching at a higher level at a younger age.

Over the next two years, Carpenter climbed up the ranks. He pitched nearly 100 innings in Single-A before being moved up to Double-A for 64.1 more innings at the age of 20. Interestingly, even though he had good ERA and WHIP numbers at the Single-A level, his command was poor (4.5 walks per nine innings) and he wasn’t striking out many batters (5.1 strikeouts per nine innings). Despite the poor peripherals, he was moved up to Double-A, where he continued to struggle with control (4.3 walks per nine innings), but did improve his strikeout rate to 7.4.

After putting up an ERA of 5.18 in Double-A at the age of 20, Carpenter lowered that number to 3.94 in his second go-round at that level, while increasing his strikeout rate slightly to 7.9 in 1996. Unfortunately, his control got worse, rising to 4.8 walks per nine innings.

While Carpenter was making small strides at this stage of his career, Meche saw much quicker progress in his second and third professional seasons. Pitching as a 19-year-old in Single-A, Meche threw 149 innings of 3.44 ERA ball with a strikeout rate of 10.1. That performance put him on the fast track.

In an organization that is now notorious for aggressively pushing prospects up the ranks of the minor league system, Meche moved up three levels, making the rise from Single-A in 1998, all the way up to the major leagues as a 20-year-old in 1999. Along the way, he saw his strikeout rate drop from 8.5 at the Double-A level to 4.9 in 85.2 major league innings, while his walks ballooned to 6.0 per nine innings upon reaching the big leagues. Looking back, it appears obvious that he was rushed.

At this point, both pitchers had spend roughly three years in their respective organizations, with Carpenter having made his way to the Double-A level at the age of 21, putting up a combined pitching line in the minors of:
   W   L     IP    ERA   WHIP   K/9  BB/9  K/BB
  19  24  419.2   3.47   1.39   7.3   4.5   1.6
Meanwhile, Meche, despite being a year younger, had already spent a half-season in the big leagues, having zoomed his way through four levels of professional baseball with a composite pitching line of:
   W   L     IP    ERA   WHIP   K/9  BB/9  K/BB
  24  24  414.1   3.74   1.38   8.1   4.1     2
Carpenter had a slightly better ERA, but Meche was striking out more batters and walking fewer while being younger for each level of play, and had already made his major league debut. Once again, the advantage goes to Meche in this early-career comparison.

Heading into his fourth professional season, Carpenter received a very favorable write-up in Baseball Prospectus:
Toronto’s #1 pick in the ’93 draft. Scouts drool about his makeup as much as his sinking fastball and power curve. He’s extremely raw, but he’s the best pitching prospect in the organization, and may surface in Toronto sometime in ’97. Pitched well in the AFL.

BP would prove prophetic, as Carpenter did make it to the big leagues in 1997, throwing 81.1 innings of major league ball, but not particularly well with an ERA over 5.00 and a middling strikeout-rate, along with a continued propensity to walk too many batters:
Year Age  Level          W    L    IP   ERA  WHIP    K/9   BB/9   K/BB
          AAA            4    9 120.0  4.50  1.38    7.3    4.0    1.8
          AL             3    7  81.1  5.09  1.78    6.1    4.1    1.5
 1997   22  Combined     7   16 201.1  4.74  1.54    6.8    4.0    1.7

How to Ruin a Good Pitching Prospect

After his rapid rise through the ranks, Meche had his first Prospectus write-up in 2000. It delivered a strong warning:
Go to the head of the class if you saw this coming. Meche was the youngest hurler to advance four levels in less than a year and throw at least 75 league-average innings in the majors since Dwight Gooden lit up the Big Apple as a teenager in 1984. Overworked, Gooden tore his rotator cuff at age 24 and was never the same. There is a lesson to be learned from Gooden’s demise. While Piniella deserves credit for using Meche judiciously last year, there is a misguided tendency to increase a young pitcher's workload based on major-league experience instead of age, which is the relevant variable.
With the Mariners, Meche often had difficulty controlling his breaking pitches, so he would abandon them and survive by spotting his fastball. That's not a recipe for continued success.

Meche did experience arm trouble in 2000, coming down with what was described as a “dead arm” and missed a good portion of the season. In his time in the bigs, though, he put up great numbers for a 21-year-old:
Year Age  Level          W    L    IP   ERA  WHIP    K/9   BB/9   K/BB
          AAA            1    1  14.0  3.86  1.43    9.6    6.4    1.5
          AL             4    4  85.2  3.78  1.34    6.3    4.2    1.5
2000  21  Combined       5    5  99.2  3.79  1.35    6.8    4.5    1.5
Unfortunately, the heavy workload at a young age would take its toll, and the "dead arm" would prove to be much worse than originally thought.

While Meche reached the big leagues as a 20-year-old in 1999 and had better-than-league-average numbers as a 20- and 21-year-old pitching in the big leagues, Carpenter made his Major League debut at the age of 22 in 1997, with a below average ERA of 5.09 and middling peripherals (6.1 strikeouts against 4.1 walks per nine innings). At this point, had Meche and Carpenter been exact contemporaries, Meche would appear to be the better prospect. The biggest concern would be that “dead arm” he experienced.

Two Roads Diverged in the Woods…

In 2001, Baseball Prospectus sounded a loud, ominous note in its write-up of Gil Meche heading into the 2001 season:
Gil Meche lost 10 mph off his mid-90s fastball last year, sometimes from one inning to the next. Despite being examined by more doctors than a stripper at an AMA convention, his ailment garnered no more technical description than a "dead arm." That’s certainly distressing, but his performance while working at such a disadvantage suggests how dominant he could be when healthy. With no substantive diagnosis, the Mariners enter this season unsure what to expect but certain that Meche’s return is crucial to their success.

As it turned out, Meche’s return wasn’t crucial to the Mariners success—they had an AL-record 116 wins in 2001. Unfortunately for Meche, he had no part in the season’s glorious run. In February 2001, Meche had rotator cuff surgery, followed by exploratory surgery on his right AC joint in October. He missed the entire season, of course, and suddenly a promising young future was greatly in doubt.

While Meche’s career went badly off track in his fourth professional season (disregarding the three innings he pitched in 1996), Carpenter became a fixture in the Blue Jays rotation starting in his fifth professional season, putting up four straight years of 150 or more innings. Still, this was definitely not the Chris Carpenter we would see in later years. The early-career Chris Carpenter was a fourth starter type, far from the ace he would become in St. Louis. From 1998 to 2001, Carpenter threw nearly 800 innings with a record of 45-45 and an ERA of 4.74. He was striking out 6.8 batters per nine but allowing four walks as well.

As Carpenter saw his career start to progress in his fifth professional season, Meche struggled to return to what had once been a promising start. After missing the entire 2001 season, Meche came back to pitch in Double-A in 2002, albeit poorly (6.51 ERA, 4.4 walks per nine innings). Still, considering this was basically a rehab assignment, just getting out on the mound was progress. Meche’s season wasn’t without problems, though, as he spent some time on the disabled list. By the end of the season, he was throwing in the 90s again, providing some hope for the future.

Strangely, rather than be cautious with him, the Mariners sent Meche to pitch in the winter leagues. Continuing their assault on Meche’s right arm, the Mariners upped his workload from 65 innings in 2002 to 186.1 innings in 2003. In that season, Meche went 15-13 with a 4.59 ERA and 6.3 K/9, while putting up his lowest walk rate in 6 years (3.0 BB/9). Predictably, after that large increase in workload following major shoulder surgery, his performance regressed in 2004 resulting in his demotion to AAA for part of the season. Over the last two years he’s struggled to be a league-average pitcher while throwing a combined 330 innings. He shows great potential at times but his post-surgery career has been decidedly mediocre.

While Meche had major arm problems at a young age, missing his age 22 season to surgery, Carpenter ran into arm trouble following a new career-high in innings (215.7) in 2001 at the age of 26. He had 3 stints on the disabled list in 2002 before finally being diagnosed with a torn labrum. He then pitched just 15 minor league innings in 2003.

Where Are We Now?

Which brings us to the comparison between Meche and Carpenter as Meche heads into the 2007 season. Looking again at the numbers from above and eliminating Santana, Glavine, and Smoltz from the conversation, this chart shows how Meche and Carpenter compare at roughly the same stage of their respective careers: 
Years  Name       Team  Lg    W   L   G   GS  CG     IP  ERA  WHIP K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9
  6    Meche      SEA   AL   55  44 147  143   4  815.3 4.65  1.44 6.3  4.0  1.6  1.2
  6    Carpenter  TOR   AL   49  50 152  135  12  870.7 4.83  1.51 6.3  3.4  1.8  1.1

According to baseball-reference.com, the 4th-most similar pitcher to Gil Meche through his age 27 season is Chris Carpenter (and Jason Schmidt is #5). After two years largely lost to injury, Carpenter headed into the 2004 season at the age of 29 with low expectations. BP2004 had this to say:
Carpenter is coming off labrum surgery, which makes him something of an unknown quantity for 2004. Still, it’s a reasonable gamble for a team that’s in need of rotation help. He’ll never be anything better than a solid fourth starter, but then again his minor league numbers never really portended anything greater, despite the hype.
Carpenter’s PECOTA projection for 2004 was uninspiring:
111.7 IP, 127 H, 33 BB, 66 K, 15 HR, 4.64 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

This time, BP was not so prophetic. Rather than becoming a solid fourth starter, Carpenter turned into an ace. All he’s done in the last 3 seasons is go 51-18 with a 3.10 ERA, a 7.7 K/9, and a greatly-improved 1.8 BB/9. Along the way, he’s won a Cy Young award and a World Series championship. The difference between his first six major league seasons and the last three is substantial:
Name       Team   Years      W   L  IP  ERA   WHIP  K/9  BB/9   K/BB
Carpenter  TOR  1997-2002   49  50 871 4.83   1.51  6.3  3.40    1.8
Carpenter  SLN  2004-2006   51  18 645  3.1   1.08  7.7  1.80    4.2
Carpenter made huge improvements in ERA, baserunners allowed, strikeout and walk rate, and lowered his HR/9. Statistically, he looks like a different pitcher. Of course, moving to the National League helped but it appears that something changed for Chris Carpenter. No one would have predicted the recent three-year stretch Carpenter has had based on his previous numbers, just as no one (except Moore) expects Gil Meche to suddenly turn into an ace. So, is Dayton Moore on to something, can Gil Meche turn into Chris Carpenter?

A Worthy $55 million Gamble?

Perhaps Moore is thinking, ‘If Chris Carpenter can suddenly find success at age 29 after years of mediocrity, maybe Gil Meche can do the same thing at age 28?’ They were both first-round draft picks taken out of high school, both had similar minor league numbers and similar major league numbers for their first six years, and both had arm problems that caused them to miss significant time. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility. For this to happen, where would Meche need to improve? Let’s look at one last set of numbers:
Name       Team    Year    Age   W   L     IP    ERA WHIP   K/9   BB/9  K/BB    GB%  P/PA
Carpenter  SLN     2004     29  15   5    182   3.46  1.1  7.50    1.9   4.0    52%   3.6
Carpenter  SLN     2005     30  21   5  241.7   2.83  1.1  7.90    1.9   4.2    55%   3.6
Carpenter  SLN     2006     31  15   8  221.7   3.09  1.1  7.50    1.7   4.3    53%   3.6
           Three-year total         51  18  645.3   3.10  1.1  7.70    1.8   4.2    54%   3.6


Name       Team    Year   Age    W   L     IP    ERA WHIP   K/9   BB/9  K/BB    GB%  P/PA
Meche      SEA     2004     25   7   7  127.7   5.01  1.5  7.00    3.3   2.1    37%   4.1
Meche      SEA     2005     26  10   8  143.3   5.09  1.6  5.20    4.5   1.2    40%   4.0
Meche      SEA     2006     27  11   8  186.7   4.48  1.4  7.50    4.1   1.9    43%   4.1
           Three-year total         28  23  457.7   4.82  1.5  6.60    4.0   1.7    40%   4.1

Since joining the Cardinals, Carpenter has upped his strikeout rate by 1.4 batters per nine while lowering his walk rate by 1.6 batters per nine. As you can see, he’s also been much more efficient over the last three years than Gil Meche has been (3.6 pitches/plate appearance versus 4.1). For Meche to make similar strides in his pitching career at this point, he would have to maintain last season’s career-best strikeout rate AND significantly reduce his walk rate. But that isn’t the only thing holding Meche back.

Another big factor in Carpenter’s success is his high ground ball rate. Carpenter is a superb ground ball pitcher, placing 10th in GB% for all qualifying pitchers in MLB last season. Meche has improved his GB% in each of the last two seasons but still has a long way to go to get up to Carpenter’s level. In fact, among qualifying pitchers, Meche’s GB% of 43.1% last season beat out just four pitchers: Jon Lieber, Ian Snell, Rodrigo Lopez, and Jason Marquis. And even though Carpenter is Meche’s 4th-most comparable pitcher through the age of 27 according to Baseball-Reference.com, the MOST-comparable pitcher to Gil Meche through the age of 27 is . . . Jason Marquis.

Basically, Dayton Moore spent $55 million on a lottery ticket that he’s hoping turns into riches (Chris Carpenter) but that has a much greater chance of being a collosal waste of cash (Jason Marquis). I can see the foundation upon which his hopes are built but I just don’t see this lottery ticket coming up a winner.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Bobby Mueller 2007-02-12T04:08:15+00:00