The Hardball Times -- Chris Constancio http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-17T08:57:15+00:00 The best major leaguers $50,000 can buy http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-best-major-leaguers-50000-can-buy/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-best-major-leaguers-50000-can-buy/#When:04:10:15 Johan Santana threatens to change that. While it is uncommon to find future stars in the draft, there are plenty of useful players available. Dan Uggla, Josh Hamilton and Joakim Soria all played important roles on their new teams following the Rule 5 draft in recent seasons.

On Thursday, the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft resulted in 18 selections. As usual, most of the players profile as middle relief pitchers or backup position players. I have ranked my favorite selections among the relief pitchers and position players in the following two lists.

The Relief Pitchers

1. Randor Bierd
Selected by the Baltimore Orioles (No. 3 overall)
Year Level    IP   K  BB  HR   ERA
2006    A-  38.1  41  15   2  6.57
2007    A   22.0  29   6   8  2.05
2007   AA   45.2  52  10   0  3.35

My personal top choice among available pitching talent in the Rule 5 draft, Bierd's 2.14 fielding-independent ERA ranked third among Eastern League pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched in 2007. That places him between Clay Buchholz (2.03) and Joba Chamberlain (2.56), though those top prospects achieved their dominance in starting roles. Bierd's career was sidetracked by Tommy John surgery two years ago, but the 23-year-old has bounced back with great control and and his sinking fastball/slider combination should yield at least an average strikeout rate in the major leagues. While Bierd is likely slated for a middle relief role with the Orioles, he does have more than two pitches and experienced some success as a spot starter in the minor leagues.

2. Carlos Guevara
Selected by the Florida Marlins (No. 5 overall) and traded to the Padres
Year Level    IP   K  BB  HR   ERA
2006   AA   77.1  89  27   6  3.72
2007   AA   62.0  87  23   3  3.45

Guevara struck out one-third of all opposing batters this year. That strikeout rate will probably drop significantly against more experienced hitters who learn to lay off his screwball, but then again Eastern League hitters certainly had plenty of chances to adapt over the past two years. Cincinnati is investing a lot of resources in its bullpen, so it is difficult for me to understand why the Reds let an affordable middle relief option like Guevara go unprotected while later drafting Sergio Valenzuela, a reliever who has yet to pitch beyond Single-A ball.

3. Fernando Hernandez
Selected by the Oakland Athletics (No. 9 overall)
Year Level    IP   K  BB  HR   ERA
2006    A+  65.1  81  32   4  4.33
2007   AA   85.1  84  23   4  3.06

Hernandez cut his walk rate nearly in half while moving up a level to Double-A Birmingham this summer. Then, he dominated the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League in 12 appearances this fall. Oakland has spots up for grabs in its bullpen, so Hernandez has a good chance of sticking with his new organization.

4. Tim Lahey
Selected by the Tampa Bay Rays (No. 1 overall) and traded to the Chicago Cubs
Year Level    IP   K  BB  HR   ERA
2006    A+  72.2  57  27   1  4.33
2007   AA   78.1  56  33   8  3.45
2007  AAA    3.0  3    2   0  9.00

Lahey, a converted catcher, is still relatively new to pitching. Converted pitchers can be intriguing Rule 5 picks because it's rare to find 24-year-old pitchers who probably have not yet reached their peak ability. Lahey is rapidly improving and lowered his walk rate from 13% in April and May to 8% during the final two months of his season at Double-A New Britain. He doesn't need to improve his ability to induce ground balls, however, because his fastball has always had exceptional sink. Fifty-eight percent of Lahey's batted balls allowed were hit on the ground in 2007.

5. Steven Register
Selected by the New York Mets (No. 13 overall)
Year Level    IP   K  BB  HR   ERA
2006  AA   155.0  77  53  25  5.57
2007   AA   58.0  48  16   8  4.03

Register's development stalled when he was a starting pitcher, so the Rockies gave him a chance to close for the Tulsa Drillers in 2007. The 24-year-old did have experience as a closer in college, and he improved in the role. He was hittable at times and his strikeout rate dipped and his walk rate rose toward the end of the season, so it remains to be seen if he has enough to stick with the Mets.

The Position Players

1. Brian Barton
Selected by the St. Louis Cardinals (No. 10 overall)
Year Level  AB  AVG  OBP  SLG
2006    A+  295 .308 .410 .515
2006   AA   151 .351 .415 .503
2007   AA   389 .314 .416 .440
2007  AAA    87 .264 .333 .333

Barton maintained an OBP above .400 at every major stop of his professional career, but his on-base rates have been boosted by unusually high batting average of balls in play at many points in his career, even though he doesn't hit an above-average rate of line drives. If his batting average falls to .260 or so in the major leagues, it is likely that would still maintain an OBP of .340 or so with limited power. That's So Taguchi's production at a fraction of the cost. And if his ailing knee doesn't give him any more trouble, there is a chance that Barton could develop into an above-average fourth outfielder.

2. Callix Crabbe
Selected by the San Diego Padres (#17 overall)
Year Level  AB  AVG  OBP  SLG
2006   AA  472 .267 .368 .345
2007  AAA  457 .287 .377 .435

The Rule 5 draft was made for guys like Crabbe. He was blocked by players with higher upside in Milwaukee, but he could be the perfect low-cost utility player for another team. Crabbe mostly played second base for Triple-A Nashville, but he also logged innings at all three outfield positions. The speedy player doesn't show much power at the plate, but his good on-base skills are supported by average contact skills and exceptional patience at the plate.

3. Garrett Guzman
Selected by the Washington Nationals (No. 16 overall)
Year Level  AB  AVG  OBP  SLG
2006    A+ 259 .274 .310 .409
2006   AA  222 .275 .333 .446
2007   AA  475 .312 .359 .453

A car accident slowed Guzman's ascent to the major leagues two years ago, but he has developed into a strong fourth outfielder candidate since then. An exceptional contact hitter, Guzman will likely hit for a good batting average in the major leagues even though his rate of getting on base and power production will be average at best. Guzman's role with the Nationals is unclear; they have already added outfielders Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge this month.

4. Matt Whitney
Selected by the Washington Nationals (No. 7 overall) 
Year Level  AB  AVG  OBP  SLG
2006    A+ 345 .206 .294 .362
2007    A  286 .308 .377 .542
2007   AA  226 .288 .347 .549

He was facing less experienced pitchers in 2007 and doesn't play a premium position, but 32 home runs is 32 home runs. Whitney is just a year removed from a .294 OBP and leading the Carolina League in strikeouts, so his story would be a remarkable one if he could stick with the Nationals.

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Most Improved Contact

Wladimir Balentien

Seattle Mariners | OF | 23 years old
            SO%   BB%  ISOP
2005   A+ 23.8%  6.1%  .262
2006  AA  29.7% 13.4%  .205
2007 AAA  19.2% 10.4%  .218

Balentien has developed into a complete hitter over the past two seasons. While he has always had exceptional raw power, he added patience to his repertoire in 2006 and walked more times in that season than he had in his entire professional career. In 2007, Balentien drastically cut down on his strikeouts while maintaining above-average patience and power. He still won't be a high average hitter in the major leagues, but he can now hit enough to be a good fourth outfielder and useful power bat off the bench for the Mariners.

Reid Brignac

Tampa Bay Devil Rays | SS | 21 years old
           PA   SO%   BB%  ISOP
2005   A  565 23.2%  7.1%  .152
2006   A+ 455 18.0%  7.7%  .231
2006  AA  121 24.6%  5.8%  .173
2007  AA  599 15.7%  9.7%  .173

Brignac experienced a breakout season at the hitter-friendly California League last year, and his plate approach continued to improve as he posted career-best walk rates and strikeout rates in the Southern League this year. His traditional statistics were underwhelming in 2007 as he only hit .260 in a full season with the Montgomery Biscuits. The components of that performance are highly encouraging, however.

Asdrubal Cabrera

Cleveland Indians | 2B/SS | 21 years old
           PA   SO%   BB%  ISOP
2005   A  229 14.0% 13.2%  .156
2005   A+ 244 19.3%  6.1%  .134
2006 AAA  233 21.9% 10.8%  .124
2006 AAA  208 18.8%  3.8%  .074
2007  AA  425  9.9% 10.6%  .144
2007 MLB  186 15.6%  9.1%  .138

Cabrera was widely regarded as a defense-only infielder until this year, and it was hard to view him as anything else given the way he was rushed to Triple-A and overmatched against much more experienced pitchers. Cabrera struck out so often that he only posted .263 and .236 batting averages for Tacoma and Buffalo last year. He started the 2007 season down a level in the Double-A Eastern League, where he made contact enough to post a .310 batting average and .381 OBP. By the end of the season, he was maintaining those skills in the middle of a major league pennant race.

Honorable Mentions: Chris Nelson, Paulo Orlando, Nelson Robledo, and Nate Schierholtz


Most Improved Walk Rates

Neil Walker

Pittsburgh Pirates | 3B | 22 years old
           PA   SO%   BB%  ISOP
2005   A  520 13.7%  3.9%  .151
2006   A+ 294 13.9%  6.5%  .125
2007  AA  431 14.8% 11.4%  .174

The switch-hitting Walker improved his on-base skills and power production while learning a new position in 2007. The Pittsburgh-area native has always possessed a pretty swing, and now his well-rounded offensive performance deserves positive attention as well.

Matt Tuiasosopo

Seattle Mariners | 3B | 21 years old
           PA   SO%   BB%  ISOP
2005   A  466 20.7%  9.5%  .110
2006   A  252 23.0%  5.6%  .073
2006  AA  240 26.7%  8.3%  .033
2007  AA  550 20.5% 14.2%  .144

It looked like Tuiasosopo made a mistake. He was lured away from a promising football career when the Mariners offered him a $2.3 million signing bonus, and he struggled at every level until this year. In 2007, he cut down on his strikeouts and was among the league's top ten line drive hitters and top ten most patient hitters. And he's only 21 years old.

Drew Macias

Drew Macias | CF | 24 years old
           PA   SO%   BB%  ISOP
2005   A+ 546 14.2%  8.3%  .107
2006  AA  485 19.4%  9.1%  .109
2007  AA  394 13.5% 13.7%  .148
2007 AAA  131 19.1% 16.0%  .127

While the light-hitting Macias batted in the bottom half of his teams' lineup all year, he demonstrated the speed and patience of a traditional leadoff hitter. Macias was called up to San Diego in the final week of the 2007 season, but he did not get an at-bat.

Honorable Mentions: Eric Campbell, Dexter Fowler, John Jaso, and Alan Rick


Most Improved Power

Geovany Soto

Chicago Cubs | C | 24 years old
           PA   SO%   BB%  ISOP
2005 AAA  345 22.3% 13.9%  .089
2006 AAA  391 21.0% 10.5%  .114
2007 AAA  447 23.3% 11.6%  .299

Soto has a strong arm and good skills behind the plate, and was viewed as a well-rounded backup catcher for most of his career. Then, he launched 26 home runs and drove in 109 runs in only 110 games for Triple-A Iowa this year. Soto will compete for the starting job in Chicago in 2008.

Chase Headley

San Diego Padres | 3B | 23 years old
           PA   SO%   BB%  ISOP
2005   A- 260 13.1% 13.1%  .173
2006   A+ 570 16.8% 13.0%  .143
2007  AA  529 21.6% 15.3%  .250

Headley was in a hitter-friendly league, but 63 extra-base hits is noteworthy in any context. He may force a trade or position move for the Padres' Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Jed Lowrie

Boston Red Sox | 2B/SS | 23 years old
           PA   SO%   BB%  ISOP
2005   A- 240 12.5% 14.2%  .120
2006   A+ 436 14.9% 12.4%  .112
2007  AA  337 14.2% 16.4%  .204
2007 AAA  177 18.6%  6.8%  .206

Did Lowrie improve or was he just finally healthy? Either way, he quietly emerged as a top prospect while Boston's major league rookies were grabbing the spotlight during the 2007 season. Lowrie has always demonstrated exceptional on-base skills, and his improved power production suggests he's a well-rounded hitter who could compete for a role in Boston as soon as next year.

Honorable Mentions: Jeff Clement, Fernando Perez, Pablo Sandoval, and Jordan Schafer

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Constancio 2007-11-08T04:05:15+00:00 Rethinking MLE: The role of experience http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/rethinking-mle-the-role-of-experience/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/rethinking-mle-the-role-of-experience/#When:04:04:15 park factors are certainly better than ever, and there are methods for estimating MLE beyond Triple-A leagues.

Still, a lot hasn't changed. For many analysts, the basic construction of hitters' MLE still involves adjusting offensive rate statistics by a multiplier that is supposed to work for all players in a certain park or league context. There's nothing wrong with that, and I suspect that method is good enough for many people. Over the next three months, however, I will examine some of the factors that affect the translation of statistics across professional baseball leagues. I'll conclude that there is lots of room to individualize MLE based on player characteristics, but I won't try and sell you on a brand new type of major league equivalency, and I'll spare you from learning any new acronyms. I don't believe any of that is necessary. Instead, I hope to simply expand the discussion of what makes up a good MLE and maybe inspire a change or two in some of the systems that are out there.

I have a few new ideas to share, but many of the topics will be based on common sense or widely shared knowledge among scouts and other baseball anlaysts. This is the case in today's article, where I'll take a look at the effect of repeating a league. Prospects who struggle in Double-A for a season and emerge as top hitters during their second or third tour around the league often inspire praise with caveats of "...but he's repeating the league." This seems like a reasonable concern given that comfort with a particular league—including knowledge of parks and some of the opposing pitchers and coaches—should positively affect the offensive performance of a league veteran. Hitters who are new to a league may be at a disadvantage.

Should this factor into major league equivalencies? I have started to look at the differences in how minor league statistics relate to major league statistics by dividing hitters into two groups. The "inexperienced" hitters have fewer than 300 plate appearances at the Triple-A level prior to the target season in which they play in both Triple-A and MLB leagues. The "experienced" hitters have at least 300 plate appearances at the Triple-A or MLB level prior to the target season. I restricted my sample to hitters between the ages of 23 and 27 with at least 100 plate appearances in both Triple-A and MLB within one season. Here are the results for strikeout rates in the 2004-2007 seasons:
                Hitters' Strikeout Rates 2004-2007
                 n  Age     AAA    MLB  Difference
Inexperienced   54  24.6  16.0%  18.5%  +2.5%   
Experienced     66  25.4  16.6%  20.2%  +3.6%
If you want to think about these differences as multipliers that are commonly used in estimating major league equivalencies, the experienced hitters' strikeout rate increases by 1.22 times and the inexperienced hitters' strikeout rate increases by about 1.15. The direction of the effects for walk rates are similar, though the effect of experience is not quite as strong. Depending on how you assess minor league hitters' power, the effect of experience can be even stronger. These are the kinds of differences that were expected if we bought into the common belief that league repeaters are at an advantage. The implication is that minor league hitters adjusting to a new league should be penalized less than a minor league veterans' performance when calculating minor league equivalencies.

Note that the average age of the players in the two groups is different; the average 'experienced' player is about nine months older than the average inexperienced player. Is age rather than experience the important variable here? Regression analysis suggests age is a non-significant factor once accounting for experience, but given the small number of cases in my dataset it's difficult to conclusively dismiss age as a factor. It's likely that many organizations only challenge young and inexperienced players at the highest levels of competition if the players' tools are exceptionally well-regarded. I excluded super-prospects who reached Triple-A before the age of 23 from this study for this reason, but it's still a concern that could be influencing the results we're seeing here.

It's clear that knowledge of players' experience should factor into the interpretation of minor league statistics. For example, Jeff Mathis cut down his strikeout rate for Triple-A Salt Lake this season, but 2007 is Mathis' third tour through the Pacific Coast League. When translating his performance, analysts are justified in treating his contact rate slightly differently than players without the benefit of much Triple-A experience prior to this year (such as Yunel Escobar, Brendan Ryan, and Kurt Suzuki). In fact, both Suzuki and Mathis are catchers of about the same age who both struck out in about 17% of plate appearances in the Pacific Coast League earlier this year. While Suzuki's strikeout rate has remained about the same after he transitioned to the American League, Mathis' strikeout rate increased to about 22% after his promotion. This is an exaggerated difference in outcomes at the major league level, but it's consistent with the results shared above.

Why do these differences matter? Well, strikeouts are one facet of a hitters' performance that influences the number of balls in play and therefore affects many of the offensive measures we really care about, such as on-base average. An individualized major league equivalency that accounts for experience rather than a "one size fits all" approach to translating strikeout rates might only result in a difference of a couple hits in full season's worth of translated performance, but if this approach is applied to many facets of players' performance the cumulative gains could be practically quite significant.

So, experience matters. And while the above results only scratch the surface of translating Triple-A rate statistics, this is a principle that can probably be applied to a number of performance characteristics across many different contexts. In any context, we should not presume to interpret inexperienced players' performances the same way we would interpret minor league veterans' performances.

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The minor leagues are designed to be educational, however, so split-season statistics among young minor leaguers might be a leading indicator of development. For example, current Rookie of the Year candidate Ryan Braun was among the top second-half performers after a modest first half performance in 2006.

Analysis of split seasons doesn't always have predictive value for developing ballplayers, of course. I recently predicted a breakout season for Van Pope partly because of his strong second-half performance in 2006. While Pope is better than his .221 average might lead you to believe, he still isn't having anything resembling a breakout season this year.

With that caveat in mind, it can still be fun to look at the top performers and speculate on what this means for their future. I will list the top 15 second-half performances in the minor leagues by players under 24 and rank them by wOBA. This statistic, featured prominently in The Book, is a run value estimate that is scaled to look like on-base percentage. Strikeout percentsage, walk percentage and isolated power (slugging-batting average) are also listed for each hitter:
Top Under-24 Minor Leaguers Since June 15
Org Name               Age    Level   PA     K%   BB%  ISOP  wOBA
TEX Chris Davis         21    A+/AA  221  26.2%  7.2%  .373  .474
TB  Ryan Royster        21        A  226  25.7%  7.1%  .314  .453
TEX John Mayberry       23    A+/AA  199  23.6%  6.0%  .269  .435
TEX Mauro Gomez         22        A  218  22.9%  4.1%  .277  .435
CLE Matt Whitney        23     A/A+  217  21.1%  8.3%  .255  .431
CLE Josh Rodriguez      22       A+  239  18.4%  8.8%  .231  .421
LA  Lucas May           22       A+  213  23.0%  4.2%  .221  .421
WAS Francisco Plasencia 23     A/A+  232  18.5% 10.8%  .244  .420
CIN Jay Bruce           20 A+/AA/AAA 231  25.1%  8.7%  .271  .420
SD  Matt Antonelli      23    A+/AA  244  14.3% 13.9%  .226  .418
COL Chris Nelson        21       A+  255  12.9% 11.8%  .277  .410
BOS Jon Still           22       A+  248  15.7% 23.0%  .250  .407  
CHC Brian Dopirak       23       A+  219  22.8%  8.2%  .229  .406
LA  Anthony Hatch       23       A+  207  16.4%  5.3%  .226  .406
BOS Jed Lowrie          23   AA/AAA  266  17.7% 10.2%  .252  .401

Here are notes on some of these prospects:

Chris Davis

Texas Rangers | 3B | 22 years old
The bad news is that Davis' all-or-nothing approach prevents him from becoming an above-average on-base threat. Also, much of his power occurred at his hitter-friendly Bakersfield of the California League. On the other hand, he is hitting everywhere. Davis already has slugged eight home runs since a promotion to Double-A Frisco earlier this month. Perhaps most importantly, Davis' breakout season has occurred while he moved across the infield from first base to third base. That kind of flexibility should keep him from stalling at Triple-A for the next few years.

John Mayberry

Texas Rangers | RF | 23 years old
The Rangers' patience with Mayberry is finally starting to pay off. He isn't a well-rounded hitter yet, but he also isn't striking out any more often than he was at a lower level last year and his raw power has translated to 30 home runs this year.

Matt Whitney

Cleveland Indians | 1B | 23 years old
The highly-touted prospect from the 2002 draft class has survived a series of surgeries since breaking his leg in the spring following his professional debut. He was finally healthy enough to play third base in the Carolina League last year, when he demonstrated modest power while striking out in one of every three plate appearances. He began 2007 in Single-A, earned a promotion in June, and has continued to hit the ball hard all year. His discipline has worsened throughout the year and he is striking out four times for every walk he has earned in August. Whiteney has also moved into a first base/designated hitter role, so he'll need to keep up this pace to contend for a major league role in another year or two.

Josh Rodriguez

Cleveland Indians | SS | 22 years old
Rodriguez was considered among the top NCAA infield prospects just a few years ago, but his professional career had been modest until a few months ago. Rodriguez had the worst first half among all the players in this list, so the jump in performance from April to August might be the most extreme among all prospects in baseball this year.

Jay Bruce

Cincinnati Reds | OF | 20 years old
Not much to say here. He's probably the best prospect still playing in the minor leagues. I do worry that, as I predicted with Alex Gordon last year, Bruce won't have the smoothest transition to the major leagues next year due to his inconsistent ability to make contact.

Matt Antonelli

San Diego Padres | 2B | 22 years old
Antonelli earned a $1.5M bonus last year because of his exceptional athelticism and polished plate approach, but his power potential was unknown. The 22-year-old transitioned from third base to second base this year and, along the way, he learned to load his hands and hit for some power. The following chart plots 15-day averages in isolated power over the course of Antonelli's career:

Antonelli would be a solid prospect at third base. At second base, he's a great one.

Chris Nelson

Colorado Rockies | SS | 21 years old
The ninth overall pick of the 2004 draft continues to develop slowly into the player the Rockies imagined he would be. Nelson made some notable improvements in the first half of the 2007 season when he walked and made contact more often than ever before. In July, he slugged nine home runs. Before then, Nelson had never hit more than three in a month.

Jon Still

Boston Red Sox | 1B | 22 years old
That's not a typo in the table above; Jon Still really has walked in 23% of his plate appearances since mid-June. Among full-time minor leaguers, only Taylor Teagrden has walked more frequently than Still this year. He could finish his season particularly strong now that he's playing half his games in a windy, fly-ball-friendly home stadium.

Jed Lowrie

Boston Red Sox | SS | 23 years old
Lowrie might be the most underhyped prospect playing for a big-market baseball franchise. He struggled with an ankle injury in 2006 and fell under the radar of most fans as fellow 2005 draftees Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz emerged as top prospects. In 2007, Lowrie has remained healthy while holding his own at shortstop and demonstrating solid on-base skills and above-average power for a middle infielder.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Constancio 2007-08-21T07:05:15+00:00 Why do sinking fastballs cause groundballs? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-do-sinking-fastballs-cause-groundballs/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-do-sinking-fastballs-cause-groundballs/#When:04:05:15
As John Walsh has noted, there is a relationship between vertical movement and batted ball outcomes—pitches with downward movement result in more groundballs than other pitches. I do not think we can pinpoint the cause of this relationship without considering pitch location, however.

What follows is a preliminary examination of the relationship of pitch location, pitch type and batted ball types using enhanced gameday data of 12 pitchers. Six of the pitchers are known for their above-average sinking fastballs, while the other six are known for above-average four-seam, or rising, fastballs. Note that rising fastballs do not actually rise but can appear to when the batter expects more of a downward break. With regard to sinking fastballs, I make no effort to differentiate a sinker and two-seam fastball in this study.

This study uses a convenience sample because enhanced gameday data is not in all major league parks. There were not enough data to include some very relevant pitchers, such as Chien Ming Wang and Brandon Webb, in this study. The pitchers included in this study also were selected because identifying the fastball of interest was relatively straightforward given the other pitches in their repertoire.

The sinking fastball group includes data from Roy Halladay, Fausto Carmona, Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Roy Oswalt and Andrew Miller.
The four-seam fastball group includes Kelvim Escobar, Daniel Cabrera, Matt Cain, A.J. Burnett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Lincecum.

For each pitcher, I sampled 40 fastballs that opposing hitters swung at (excluding bunts and foul balls). Each swing was categorized as a swing-and-miss strike, a groundball or an airborne ball (line drives, pop-ups, and fly balls). We can visually represent the distribution of outcomes for each pitcher by sorting the pitches into nine zones.
Here are the results for the four-seam fastballs:




This series of graphs is mapped to portray the pitcher's point of view. In other words, the graph in the lower right corner represents pitches close to right-handed hitters' knees. Each graph includes tick marks at 25% intervals.

Here are the results for the sinking fastballs:



Now, the data are a bit noisy because left- and right-handed batters were mixed together in this dataset and we are dealing with a relatively small sample in each group, but these images should make a few trends apparent. First, pitches over the heart of the strike zone lead to a lot of airborne balls for both types of pitchers. This should come as no surprise. Second, pitchers with good four-seam fastballs get more swings and misses than pitchers with sinking fastballs.

It's also clear that location does matter when pitchers are throwing four-seam fastballs. Throwing four-seam fastballs at or above the letters is a high-risk/high-reward activity that leads to plenty of swings and misses and also a lot of fly balls. Keeping the ball low will lead to more groundballs.

The story is a bit different for pitchers with sinking fastballs. Pitches result in groundballs at least 20% of the time in every one of the zones. If we aggregate the data bit more and use an imaginary horizontal line through the middle of the strike zone to divide all pitches into two groups, we get the following results:
              Sinking Fastballs    Four-Seam Fastballs
                 Low   High           Low    High
Airborne       32.6%  30.6%         33.3%   29.5%
Groundballs    31.2%  33.6%         26.2%   13.5%
Strikes        36.3%  35.7%         40.4%   57.0%

I think this more clearly answers the question of why sinking fastballs lead to groundballs. The location of sinking fastballs does not appear to be related to the batted ball outcome. In fact, the high pitches were hit on the ground a bit more frequently than the low pitches from this group, though the difference is not statistically significant.

It's too early to make any bold conclusions. Nuanced interpretations will be possible when more data are available to support more rigorous methods. The preliminary results do not support location-dependent theory for why sinking fastballs result in groundballs, however. Instead, this evidence suggests that sinking fastballs lead to groundballs because hitters are swinging on top of pitches in all areas of the strike zone.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Constancio 2007-08-03T04:05:15+00:00 Can these young pitchers turn it around? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/can-these-young-pitchers-turn-it-around/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/can-these-young-pitchers-turn-it-around/#When:16:03:15 struggling minor league hitters. This week, I'll examine four young pitchers who are looking to rebound from disappointing performances.

Jimmy Barthmaier

Houston Astros | RHP | 23 years old
Barthmaier has struggled with consistency and control throughout his minor league career, but his mid-90s fastball and hard breaking ball have kept him on the prospect radar. This season he is giving up tons of runs and posting a losing record:
            IP  W  L  SO  BB  HR  ERA
2006  A+ 146.2 11  8 134  67   6  3.62
2007  AA  63.2  2  7  53  32   8  6.08

Barthmaier is still struggling with control—he allowed six walks in his last outing—but he's really the same type of prospect he was six months ago. He has struck out nearly one-fifth of opposing batters since a slow start to the season and his .372 batting average of balls in play (BABIP) seems to be more damning of his infielders than Barthmaier himself, given the large number of groundball hits he has allowed.

In summary, Astros fans shouldn't be particularly alarmed by the 6.08 ERA. On the other hand, he hasn't made a whole lot of progress over the past year and perhaps it's time to think about using his two great pitches in a new role.

Prognosis: Fair. A move to the bullpen might do some good, though.

Brandon Erbe

Baltimore Orioles | RHP | 19 years old
Erbe began the season as Baltimore's top pitching prospect, but his performance has been underwhelming in the Carolina League. He isn't striking out a high proportion of opposing batters and his walk rate is alarming.
            IP  W  L  SO  BB  HR  ERA
2006  A  114.2  5  9 133  47   2  3.22
2007  A+  83.2  6  3  75  46   9  5.27

It isn't pretty, but I'm not particularly worried about Erbe. If you want to, you can ignore a disastrous May 16 start and Erbe's numbers won't look so bad.

I'm less interested in picking and choosing numbers, however, and more interested in figuring out how seriously to take bad performances. Erbe's disappointing results have a lot to do with his inconsistent control. If you search for comparable 19-year-olds with slightly above-average strikeout rates and poor walk rates, however, you'll find a handful went on to notable major league careers (including Joel Zumaya most recently). For that reason, it's clearly too soon to write off Erbe's chances of becoming a good major league pitcher. That said, he's taken a step back during the first half of the season and has something to prove over the next couple months.

Prognosis: Fair. Erbe has time to turn things around.

Will Inman

Milwaukee Brewers | RHP | 20 years old
Inman rocketed through Single-A baseball despite modest fastball velocity. Six starts after a promotion to Double-A Huntsville, Inman is struggling for the first time in his career:
             IP  W  L  SO  BB  HR  ERA
2006   A  110.2 10  2 134  24   3  1.71
2007   A+  78.2  4  3  98  23   4  1.72
2007  AA   26.1  1  4  30  13   8  6.84

Is this is a dismissable artifact of a small sample of performances, or is Inman's stuff finally failing him?
I can't be too disappointed in any 20-year-old who is struggling against much older competition in Double-A baseball, and Inman's component statistics suggest he'll be fine in the long run. First, he's striking out nearly 25% of all opposing batters in Double-A. That's a dropoff from his exceptional rates in the lower minor leagues, but it's still quite good. If he was able to finish the season with a similar strikeout rate, he would be among the top 10 Southern League pitchers in this regard and certainly the youngest among that group.

Also, Inman hasn't been terribly lucky with the balls in play he has allowed. A high proportion of fly balls have left the ballpark during windy days. And, like the previously mentioned Barthmaier, Inman is surrendering many groundball hits—more than 35% of groundballs have gone for hits. It is likely that these rates will regress to more typical levels in the near future.

Prognosis: Good. Expect a strong final two months.

Donnie Veal

Chicago Cubs | LHP | 22 years old
During the offseason, Veal was widely praised as a top pitching prospect, occasionally inspired comparisons to Dontrelle Willis.
            IP  W  L  SO  BB  HR  ERA
2006   A  73.2  5  3  86  40   4  2.69
2006   A+ 80.2  6  2  88  42   3  1.67
2007  AA  89.0  5  7  87  56   8  5.36

A glance at Veal's fielding-independent ERA last year could have told you his 2006 season was a fluke. The reason is clear: Veal simply walks too many batters. He always has. And while the optimistic fan can dream of what kind of player Veal will become if he cuts down on his walks, the fact is pitchers rarely fix control problems if they are still struggling at Veal's age. If you look for southpaws with comparable strikeout and walk rates at Veal's age and level of competition, you'll find players like Joey Eischen, Luis Martinez and Adam Bostick. In other words, you don't see many good major league starters begin their career the way Veal has.

Prognosis: Not good, if he hasn't figured out how to throw strikes yet...

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Constancio 2007-07-17T16:03:15+00:00 Can these young hitters turn it around? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/can-these-young-hitters-turn-it-around/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/can-these-young-hitters-turn-it-around/#When:04:06:15 similar article last year resulted in moderately successful predictions, including an optimistic report on a Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who bounced back from a slow start to the 2006 season and is now slugging with the Atlanta Braves. This year, I'll devote one article each to hitters and pitchers. Today we'll look at five hitters who experienced disappointing starts to the 2007 season.

Elvis Andrus
Atlanta Braves | Position: Shortstop | 18 years old

The Braves' toolsy shortstop prospect held his own as one of the youngest players participating in full-season ball last year, so his underwhelming results at the plate were not a concern. This year, the 18-year-old was promoted to the Carolina League and continues to struggle offensively, which is finally starting to inspire questions about his performance.

There is a lot to pick apart about his offensive performance; he's striking out a little too often, he's mostly pounding the ball into the ground when he makes contact, and his power production is nearly absent. These certainly are not good signs and in all likelihood Andrus won't drive the ball enough to become more than an average major league shortstop.

On the other hand, you could have pointed out the same negative aspects of a performance when looking at a 19-year-old Grady Sizemore or a 20-year-old Alexis Rios early in their careers. Andrus won't celebrate his 19th birthday until next month. There is plenty of time for him to develop strength and refine his approach at the plate.

Prognosis: Wait and see. Performance isn't encouraging, but still far too young to write off.

Reid Brignac
Tampa Bay Devil Rays| Position: Shortstop | 21 years old

Expectations were high after Brignac slugged 21 home runs in the California League and had no trouble adjusting to the Double-A Southern League in 2006. This year, the results have not been pretty:
YEAR LEVEL  PA  AVG  OBP  SLG
2006    A+ 455 .326 .380 .557
2006   AA  121 .300 .355 .473
2007   AA  305 .239 .292 .387

His power numbers are down since he left his hitter-friendly high Single-A league, but you still can't find any other legit shortstop prospect under the age of 22 who already looks like a regular 20-plus home run hitter.

Beyond the decreased power numbers, his performance only looks bad because of an ugly batting average. I doubt that will last. Brignac's .262 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is unusually low given his well above-average rate of hitting line drives. If he continues to make good contact, he will probably finish the season with a batting average closer to .280 than .240, and his on-base and slugging percentages will consequently start to look like those of a top prospect once again.

Prognosis: Good. Expect a full recovery

Trevor Crowe
Cleveland Indians | Position: Outfield | 23 years old

Crowe struggled in the second half of the 2006 season, but it was widely believed to have something to do with a temporary move to the infield. Crowe has returned to the outfield since then but the results at the plate have not been encouraging. He's really not as bad as his .210 average indicates, but his struggles should not come as a complete surprise:
YEAR LEVEL Trevor Crowe League Average  
            LD  GB      LD  GB 
2006    A+  13% 52%     13% 48%
2006    AA  13% 48%     15% 47%
2007    AA  13% 54%     15% 47%

Crowe is a groundball hitter who doesn't hit enough line drives to maintain a high batting average or hit a meaningful number extra-base hits. He is a good example of why I worry about players in the lower minors who collect a lot of infield hits. In the first year or two of professional baseball, speedy prospects can mask poor contact by running hard enough to reach base safely or take an extra base on weakly hit ball in the outfield. It usually doesn't work so well against better competition in the upper minor and major leagues. Wily Taveras is the exception to the rule. Perhaps Jacoby Ellsbury is as well?

Time will tell. Crowe's patience and contact skills should still carry him to the major leagues, but he is projecting as more of a fringe corner outfielder or average center fielder at best.

Prognosis: Not good. Lower your expectations

Andy LaRoche
Los Angeles Dodgers | Position: Third Base | 23 years old

After a disappointing promotion to the Dodgers, LaRoche has struggled to put up results in the Pacific Coast League. He is only hitting .268 with three home runs. His mediocre performance sticks out because he was expected to put up big numbers in the hitter-friendly context of Las Vegas in the Pacific Coast League.

I think a more granular view of his performance yields plenty of encouraging signs. He's basically the same type of hitter he was when he was dominating Double-A Jacksonville last year. His walk rate is well above-average, he continues to be among the league's best at avoiding strikeouts, and he hits a lot of line drives. He was having a fantastic month of June before a diving catch led to a sore shoulder and week-long stint on the disabled list. He returned with a 3-for-4 effort including two doubles this weekend, and I think there is a lot to be optimistic about.

Prognosis: Good. Expect a full recovery.

Van Pope
Atlanta Braves | Position: Third Base | 23 years old

I described Pope as a breakout candidate earlier this year and I looked pretty foolish as he struggled to hit above .200 for the first couple months of the season. I believed he turned a corner with a strong second half performance in 2006, but it appears that he might just be a slow starter. His isolated power of .222 during the month of June was a promising sign, and I suspect he'll find a way to finish the season with 15 to 20 home runs despite his poor start.

Additionally, he's been among the minor league's unluckiest hitters with a low batting average of balls in play. His first half could not have been much worse, and he's bound to see better results over the next couple months.

Prognosis: Fair. Expect another strong second half.



Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Constancio 2007-07-05T04:06:15+00:00 Drafting high school pitchers http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pick-a-high-school-pitcher/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pick-a-high-school-pitcher/#When:04:06:15 televised draft will feature plenty of top-end high school pitching talent in the first two rounds, and some of these pitchers will ask for multi-million dollar bonuses. Do certain types of elite high school pitchers command higher bonuses than others? Are these investments actually correlated with pitchers' success?

First, I selected the top 10 high school pitchers (ranked by signing bonus) in the 1996-2000 drafts and observed a relationship between signing bonuses and peak velocity:

Points located at the "1" on the y-axis represent the peak velocity of individuals earning the highest singing bonus among high school pitchers in their draft, points located at "2" represent the peak velocity of pitchers with the second-highest signing bonus, and so on. "Peak velocity", or the maximum recorded fastball velocity as reported by a reliable source before the player was drafted, isn't the only important velocity-related characteristic. I rely on peak velocity is because it's a straightforward number that does an adequate job of communicating one aspect of a pitcher, but it is also convenient for data collection purposes because peak velocities are widely available in archived newspaper reports of drafted players. For example, next weekend's newspaper reports of Rick Porcello will likely mention that he "has been clocked as high as 97 mph" more often than his ability to maintain velocity deep into games, the quality of his curveball, or his pitchability.

Peak velocity is a significant predictor of signing bonuses for top high school pitchers during the five-year period I studied, and I used an ordinal regression model to examine the relationship between other variables (including physical characteristics and geography) and the rank of signing bonuses among high school pitching prospects in the first and second rounds of the draft. As it turns out, peak velocity and pitcher handedness are two variables that are statistically significant predictors of signing bonuses from 1996-2000. Let's examine the pitching prospects—past and present—with some grouping according to handedness and velocity:

High-Velocity Left-Handed Pitchers

Power lefties are rare, and as a result they command bonuses that almost always rank among the top three when compared to other high school pitchers' bounties in any given draft. The performance record is uninspiring, however.

Best Bonus: Ryan Anderson (1997)
Top Three Bonuses Among HS Pitchers in Draft: 87.5%
Percent Making it Past Double-A in Six Years: 25.0%
Current Major Leaguers (drafted 1996-2000): C.C. Sabathia
2007 Draftees Who Belong To This Category: Madison Bumgarner

High-Velocity Right-Handed Pitchers

Although some of the heftiest bonuses were handed out to pitchers in this group, most of these pitchers were more affordable than their left-handed counterparts. This group was also the most successful in terms of reaching the major leagues. Rick Porcello leads a deep 2007 draft class of young right-handed pitchers who can throw in the mid- to upper-90's

Best Bonuses: Matt White (1996) and Josh Beckett (1999)
Top Three Bonuses Among HS Pitchers in Draft: 35.3%
Percent Making it Past Double-A in Six Years: 76.5%
Current Major Leaguers (drafted 1996-2000): Josh Beckett, Boof Bonser, and Adam Eaton
2007 Draftees Who Belong To This Category: Phillipe Aumont (Quebec), Blake Beaven (Texas), Matt Harvey, Michael Main (Florida), Jarrod Parker (Indiana), and Rick Porcello (New Jersey)

Moderate-Velocity Left-Handed Pitchers

I wish I had a dollar for every time I read a comparison between a soft-tossing left-handed pitching prospect and crafty veterans like Tom Glavine and Jamie Moyer. Most of the southpaws with low-90s fastballs who are among the top 10 pitching prospects because of their control or advanced secondary pitches. They do not typically earn top bonuses but this group made it past Double-A at a higher rate than the high-velocity southpaws, perhaps because of more well-rounded skills.

Best Bonus: Mike Stodolka (2000)
Top Three Bonuses Among HS Pitchers in Draft: 11.1%
Percent Making it Past Double-A in Six Years: 44.4%
Current Major Leaguers (drafted 1996-2000): None. Sean Burnett is closest.
2007 Draftees Who Belong To This Category: Josh Smoker (Georgia) and Jack McGeary (Massachusetts)

Moderate-Velocity Right-Handed Pitchers

Right-handed pitchers who don't throw 94 mph or better are not compensated as well as other top pitchers drafted out of high school. As a group, moderate-velocity right-handed pitchers represented the biggest bargain among high school pitchers from 1996 to 2000. These pitchers are the least unique in terms of velocity and handedness, so the individuals who were advanced enough to earn top 10 bonuses often demonstrated durability, mature pitchability, and quality pitches beyond their merely average major league fastballs.

Best Bonuses: Jon Garland (1997)
Top Three Bonuses Among HS Pitchers in Draft: 6.2%
Percent Making it Past Double-A in Six Years: 50%
Current Major Leaguers (drafted 1996-2000): Jon Garland, Jake Westbrook and Adam Wainwright
2007 Draftees Who Belong To This Category: Tim Alderson

Who is Overvalued, Undervalued?

Top left-handed high school pitching prospects generally earned better signing bonuses more than top right-handed draftees, but only 35% of the southpaws in this sample threw at least 25 innings at the major league level within six years of being drafted. Were left-handed high school pitchers overvalued? It's too small of a sample to make any strong conclusions, but it's possible that talent evaluators are more forgiving of deficiencies in young left-handed pitching prospects—particularly hard-throwing left-handed pitchers—because there are so few opportunities to develop these kinds of players. Many of these pitchers don't overcome those deficiencies and players like Madison Bumgarner, a hard-throwing southpaw who will probably command a bonus of over $1 million following a first-round selection this year, present a tempting challenge for scouts and player development personnel. There are serious concerns about the consistency of his motion and his raw secondary stuff, but a team who is willing to believe they can address those weaknesses and develop a once-in-a-generation talent will be happy to take on the risk.

Expectations

There is no shortage of quality high school pitchers eligible for the 2007 draft, so what should we expect of them? If history is any lesson, most won't make an impact at the major league level. Here is a representation of high school pitchers' highest level of competition with at least 25 inning pitched within six years of being drafted in the 1996-2000 drafts:

In other words, about half of the pitchers make it to Triple-A baseball or beyond within six years of their draft selection. And although 38% of the top 10 high school pitchers in each of these drafts made it to the major leagues, only eight of the 50 pitchers (16%) in this sample tossed a total of 100 innings or more at the major league level within six years of being drafted.

So there it is. The number of players involved in this retrospective is small because this work-in-progress is part of a larger time-consuming data collection process. But I think this can be a useful start for a discussion about trends in evaluating high school pitchers.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Constancio 2007-06-07T04:06:15+00:00 Ten hitting prospects worth knowing about http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ten-hitting-prospects-worth-knowing-about-2007/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ten-hitting-prospects-worth-knowing-about-2007/#When:04:03:15 my summary of pitchers off to hot starts with a similar list of young position players. The following players were generally not considered among their respective organizations' top five prospects before the season started, but all are off to good starts and could be considered top prospects by the end of the year.

Bryan Anderson
C | St. Louis Cardinals | 20
YEAR     LVL   AB   AVG   OBP   SLG  HR  XBH  BB  SO
2007      AA  125  .280  .355  .424  3    11  14  21
The left-handed hitting catcher has continued to produce at the plate following an aggressive promotion to Double-A Texas League. Anderson remains patient at the plate and already matched his home run total from last year. He has success hitting to all fields; more than 40% of his line drives and flyballs are hit to the opposite field. The 20-year-old is still learning the nuances of his position, but he has thrown out more than 45% of runners attempting to steal this season.

Wladimir Balentien
RF | Seattle Mariners | 22
YEAR     LVL   AB   AVG   OBP   SLG  HR  XBH  BB  SO
2007     AAA  187  .337  .404  .572  11   22  21  35
Balentien's raw power has attracted attention since his professional career began. His aggressive approach at the plate was a problem for most of his career, and Balentien struck out in more than 25% of his plate appearances during the first four years of his career. In 2006, he demonstrated some patience at the plate and walked in more than 13% of his plate appearances. He also improved his contact rate in the second half of the 2006 season. This year, he's making contact often enough to hit .337 and post an OBP above .400 while continuing to launch plenty of doubles and long home runs. Once a one-dimensional slugger, Balentien finally is looking like a well-rounded hitter capable of contributing to a major league lineup as soon as this year.

Asdrubal Cabrera
SS | Cleveland Indians | 21
YEAR     LVL   AB   AVG   OBP   SLG  HR  XBH  BB  SO
2007      AA  152  .309  .399  .500   6   16  22  21
The Indians acquired Cabrera as part of the Ben Broussard/Eduardo Perez deal with Seattle last year. The Mariners rushed Cabrera up to Triple-A Tacoma in his first full season of professional baseball, so I am not worried that the Indians have moved him down to the Double-A Akron this year. Cabrera, a strong defensive shortstop, continues to improve his on-base skills (he has more walks than strikeouts this year) and hit for some power while playing half his games in a home park that isn't conducive to extra-base hits.

Chris Carter
1B | Chicago White Sox | 20
YEAR     LVL   AB   AVG   OBP   SLG  HR  XBH  BB  SO
2007      A+  192  .307  .379  .563  10   27  21  33
The powerful right-handed hitter already has 26 extra-base hits this year, but Carter's improved ability to make contact is what puts him on this list. Like Balentien, Carter was widely assumed to be a one-dimensional hitter before this season but has made adjustments to become a productive and well-rounded hitter this year. Carter has struck out only 30 times this year, and that improvement has not come at the expense of good contact. More than 20% of his batted balls have been line drives.

Aaron Cunningham
LF | Chicago White Sox | 21
YEAR     LVL   AB   AVG   OBP   SLG  HR  XBH  BB  SO
2007      A+  191  .288  .355  .492   7   21  21  30
Carter's teammate was featured on my preseason list of breakout candidates, and he has not disappointed. Since moving up to the Carolina League, the former sixth-round pick has incrementally improved his walk rate, strikeout rate and power production. Cunningham could finish the year as Chicago's most valuable prospect.

Jared Goedert
3B | Cleveland Indians | 22
YEAR     LVL   AB   AVG   OBP   SLG  HR  XBH  BB  SO
2007      A+  165  .364  .475  .715  16   26  35  29
I first started following Goedert when he won an organizational award for "hard hit percentage" last year. This year, he's pacing the league with 16 home runs already. The former ninth-round pick just celebrated his 22nd birthday, so the Indians could challenge him with a promotion to the Carolina League later this year.

Jed Lowrie
SS | Boston Red Sox | 23
YEAR     LVL   AB   AVG   OBP   SLG  HR  XBH  BB  SO
2007      AA  138  .283  .422  .442   2   15  33  25
An ankle injury and early season slump caused many Sox fans to forget about Lowrie last year when fellow 2005 draftees Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, and Michael Bowden established themselves as top prospects. He finally heated up in August, hitting .327/.383 /.529, and has picked up where he left off in Double-A Portland. Lowrie's power production is still mostly limited to doubles and triples, but he is consistently making contact and his OBP is buoyed by a league-leading walk rate (19% of all plate appearances).

Desmond Jennings
CF | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 20
YEAR     LVL   AB   AVG   OBP   SLG  HR  XBH  BB  SO
2007       A  177  .299  .386  .418   3   12  22  25
Jennings is positioned to lead the next generation of Rays outfield prospects. The former three-sport star is going to draw Carl Crawford comparisons, but he already is showing more patience at the plate than Crawford ever has by walking in 11% of his plate appearances. Jennings is a good contact hitter but is not just slapping the ball on the ground and using his speed to get on base; 16% of his batted balls are line drives and he already has a dozen extra-base hits. Jennings likes to run; he is 21-for-30 in stolen base attempts this year.

Taylor Teagarden
C | Texas Rangers | 23
YEAR     LVL   AB   AVG   OBP   SLG  HR  XBH  BB  SO
2007      A+   99  .323  .481  .646   8   16  28  22
Teagarden was drafted out of Texas as a strong defensive catcher, but his bat has impressed this year. He is leading the California League in isolated power while hitting the ball hard to all fields. He missed a year of development due to elbow surgery, so he is older than most prospects in the California League and we shouldn't get too excited until we see what Teagarden does against more age-appropriate competition in a less hitter-friendly environment. Still, there's a lot to like about his performance thus far.

John Whittleman
3B | Texas Rangers | 20
YEAR     LVL   AB   AVG   OBP   SLG  HR  XBH  BB  SO
2007       A  156  .353  .444  .641   9   26  28  36
Whittleman struggled in his first full season of professional baseball, but he made steady improvement in putting the ball in play and flashed some power last July. He returned to the Midwest League this year and has quickly established himself as one of the league's best hitters. Whittleman's patient approach has fueled a .451 OBP. More than 21% of his batted balls have been line drives, and Whittleman already has launched 26 extra-base hits. His defense remains a concern, however. Whittleman has comitted seven errors in his last 10 games at third base.



Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Constancio 2007-05-29T04:03:15+00:00 Ten Pitching Prospects Worth Knowing About http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ten-pitching-prospects-worth-knowing-about-2007/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ten-pitching-prospects-worth-knowing-about-2007/#When:04:10:15 Last year's attempt to identify relatively unknown pitchers experiencing strong starts was fruitful, so I'll return with an effort to introduce players who were generally not considered among their respective organization's top five prospects before the season started. All of these pitchers are off to good starts and could be among their organization's top pitching prospects by the end of the year.

Brett Anderson
LHP | Arizona Diamondbacks | 19
Anderson, a second-round pick of the 2006 draft, has been a bright spot on an otherwise underachieving South Bend team.
YEAR	LVL	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2007      A     7     41.1     34      13        8       0       5      50     1.74

He will probably always need to answer the questions that accompany a finesse lefty as he progresses through the professional ranks, but the early results are exceptional. He is striking out 10 times as many batters as he is walking while inducing more ground balls than anyone else in the Midwest league. That combination of skills is going to result in success at any level of baseball.

Tim Dillard
RHP | Milwaukee Brewers | 24
The Brewers have the best pair of prospects in the minor leagues right now in Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo. They also have another guy who is flying under the radar and could contribute to the back of the Brewers rotation as soon as this year:
YEAR	LVL	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2007    AAA     7     40.1     45      16       15       2       9      23     3.35

Dillard's fastball velocity is underwhelming and he probably won't ever exceed 100 strikeouts in a season, but he has everything he needs to overcome his modest velocity; durability, excellent control, and an effective sinker. Nearly 60% of batted balls allowed by Dillard have been hit on the ground, and he has only allowed 12 home runs in his last 200 innings pitched.

Tommy Hanson
RHP | Atlanta Braves | 20
A draft and follow from the 2005 draft, Hanson's young career has been nothing but successful.
YEAR	LVL	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2007      A     7     36.0     24      12        9       1      10      59     3.83

He is already striking out over one-third of opposing batters, and the 6-foot-6 righthander has size and youth on his side.

David Hernandez
RHP | Baltimore Orioles | 22
Hernandez fell to round 16 of the 2005 draft due to concerns about his signability, but the Orioles lured him into the organization with a generous signing bonus. While teammate Brandon Erbe is getting a lot of attention, Hernandez has gone relatively unnoticed despite striking out nearly one quarter of all opposing batters as a professional.
YEAR	LVL	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2007     A+     8     40.0     38      19       17       4      12      42     3.83

Hernandez just celebrated his 22nd birthday last weekend, so he is succeeding versus age-appropriate competition. Inconsistent control and slight flyball tendencies will limit his effectiveness, but he could be a solid starting pitcher for the Orioles if he continues to get batters to swing and miss in the upper minor leagues.

Jeffrey Manship
Most prospect-watchers know about his teammate at Notre Dame, but Manship has put together the more impressive professional debut.
RHP | Minnesota Twins | 22
YEAR	LVL	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2007      A     7     43.0     28      10        9       2       5      46     1.88

It's important not to get too excited by these numbers, as college-trained arms typically don't have much trouble competing against Single-A hitters. It will be important to see how Manship handles hitters in the Florida State League and Eastern League over the next two years, but for now he's doing everything he should be and more with a 10/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in Beloit.

Chris Mason
RHP | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 22
Mason's strong start in 2006 was overshadowed when his strikeout rate dipped, his control faltered, and he started leaving the ball up in the zone and surrendering too many fly balls during the final two months of his first full professional season. He appears well-rested and has bounced back with another great start this year:
YEAR	LVL	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2007     AA     7     38.0     40      16       12       2       8      36     2.84


Andy Sonnanstine
RHP | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 23
The durable innings-eater continues to get batters to swing and miss by changing arm angles and effectively locating his secondary pitches and underwhelming fastball.
YEAR	LVL	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2007    AAA     8     52.2     35      14       12       5       9      57     2.88

This is Sonnanstine's second year on the list, and everything I said last year is still true.

Oswaldo Sosa
RHP | Minnesota Twins | 21
I first started to learn more about the 21-year-old Venezuelan when Hardball Times co-founder Aaron Gleeman reported that Ron Gardenhire mentioned Sosa as a candidate for the Twins rotation six months ago. One month later, Bryan Smith nominated Sosa as the minor league's most underrated talent in January. Sosa has not disappointed:
YEAR	LVL	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2007     A+     7     33.0     36      14       13       1      10      31     3.55

Over the past couple years, Sosa has added velocity to a fastball that has enough sinking movement to induce an above-average proportion of ground balls. He could earn a promotion to Double-A New Britain in the near future, but the Twins have enough young pitching to avoid rushing him to the major leagues before 2008.

Daryl Thompson
RHP | Cincinnati Reds | 21
Thompson came to the Reds as part of the much-maligned Austin Kearns trade. He was a high risk/high reward acquisition; his stuff was excellent before he experienced the kind of shoulder troubles that most pitchers struggle to return from. So far, it looks like his recovery is going well:
YEAR	LVL	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2007      A     5     28.0     16       3        3       1       2      24     0.96

The 0.96 ERA overstates his ability to some extent, but his control has impeccable and he has not been very hittable during the first six weeks of baseball. Thompson recently earned a promotion to the Florida State League, and he could emerge as the Reds' top minor league pitching prospect in a few months if Homer Bailey moves to Cincinnati.

Virgil Vasquez
RHP | Detroit Tigers | 24
YEAR	LVL	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2007    AAA     7     40.2     40      15       13       4      10      50     2.88

While he has always demonstrated consistency in throwing strikes, Vasquez has always been too hittable to project as a major league starter. In his second time through the Double-A Eastern League last year, he posted a 3.73 ERA and struck out about 18% of opposing batters. That wasn't bad, but he also wasn't inspiring much interest as a prospect. That all changed last November, when he was one of the few effective pitchers in the hitter-dominated Arizona Fall League. He finished the fall league regular season with 24 consecutive scoreless innings, and picked up where he left off in Triple-A Toledo this year. His strikeout rate jumped to 30% and he earned a spot start in Detroit. He was hit hard in his major league debut, and Vasquez needs to maintain his surprisingly strong strikeout rate to overcome his vulnerability to home runs at the next level.

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