The Hardball Times -- Chad Evely

The Hardball Times -- Chad Evely http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-17T08:57:15+00:00 Lopsided batter/pitcher match-ups of the 1990s and 2000s http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/lopsided-batter-pitcher-matchups-of-the-1990s-and-2000s/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/lopsided-batter-pitcher-matchups-of-the-1990s-and-2000s/#When:07:15:15 Retrosheet and their brethren, we can now re-discover those lopsided match-ups.

This is the last of a four-part series highlighting match-ups in which pitchers most dominated batters. Today: the five most lopsided match-ups of the 1990s and 2000s. For each, I have listed the overall ranking of lopsidedness to give you an idea of where it stands all-time. Match-ups are placed in a decade according to the median year of their career match-ups. So if they first faced off in 1973 and last faced off in 1984, the median year is [(1973+1984) / 2] = 1978.5 and their match-up is placed in the '70s. To give an idea of the bias towards older match-ups, eight of the top nine come from the 1960s and every one from 1-27 is from the '60s or '70s.

If you'd like to understand my methodology in more detail, take a gander at the original article.

#28. Rafael Palmeiro vs. David Wells (10.5 RC, 79 PAs, 1989-2005) View match-up

Actual: 3.5 RC | 13-76 | .171/.203/.289 | 0.492 OPS | 8 K, 2 BB, 1 HBP
Expected: 14.0 RC | 20-68 | .295/.382/.536 | 0.917 OPS | 9 K, 10 BB, 1 HBP

After 16 seasons spent making Rafael Palmeiro’s life difficult on the field whenever given the opportunity (including only one hit in their last 27 match-ups), David Wells did his best to do the same off the field. When Palmeiro tested positive for steroids on Aug. 1, 2005, Wells was one of the most outspoken players in criticizing him, going so far as to call for MLB to require Palmeiro to take a lie detector test to determine how long the steroid use had lasted.

"If he’s been doing it a while," Wells said, "then go ahead and erase [his accomplishments]. It’s a shame to do it, but you know you have to do it." Palmeiro himself would probably be in favor of striking his performance against Wells off the record books.

Rafael Palmeiro also struggled against NONE.
David Wells also dominated Omar Vizquel (7.5 RC).

#34. Ken Griffey Jr. vs. Chuck Finley (10.2 RC, 78 PAs, 1990-2002) View match-up

Actual: 4.2 RC | 12-73 | .164/.218/.301 | 0.519 OPS | 18 K, 5 BB, 0 HBP
Expected: 14.3 RC | 20-67 | .298/.384/.565 | 0.949 OPS | 11 K 9 BB, 1 HBP

After an extremely slow start to this match-up, Ken Griffey Jr. went on a tear to nearly bring his actual RC in line with his expected in 1993. Ultimately, Finley got the better of Griffey, who closed out this match-up with a less-than-stellar 1-for-29.

Ken Griffey Jr. also struggled against Kevin Appier (6.9 RC) and Mike Mussina (6.6 RC).
Chuck Finley also dominated NONE.

#36. Cecil Fielder vs. Roger Clemens (10.1 RC, 50 PAs, 1990-1997) View match-up

Actual: -2.3 RC | 2-46| .043/.120/.043 | 0.163 OPS | 21 K, 4 BB, 0 HBP
Expected: 7.8 RC | 11-43 | .262/.354/.502 | 0.856 OPS | 11 K, 6 BB, 0 HBP

Of the two career hits (both singles) that Fielder managed against Clemens, one of them came on May 21, 1997, the day Clemens recorded his 200th career win. Is this relevant in any way to their match-up as whole? Nope, not really. Cecil was bad. Very bad. We can leave it at that.

Cecil Fielder also struggled against NONE.

Roger Clemens also dominated Roberto Alomar (9.6 RC), Julio Franco (8.3 RC), Mark McGwire (8.0 RC), Rickey Henderson (7.9 RC), Devon White (7.4 RC), J.T. Snow (7.3 RC), Albert Belle (7.3 RC), Vizquel (7.0 RC), Greg Vaughn (6.8 RC) and Nomar Garciaparra (6.4 RC).

#40. Jeff Blauser vs. Andy Benes (10.0 RC, 62 PAs, 1989-1997) View match-up

Actual: -1.1 RC | 5-57| .088/.145/.105 | 0.250 OPS | 10 K, 4 BB, 0 HBP
Expected: 8.9 RC | 15-53 | .276/.365/.427 | 0.792 OPS | 10 K, 7 BB, 1 HBP

A 42-plate appearance hitless streak would be enough to swing any batter/pitcher match-up toward the pitcher. Jeff Blauser/Andy Benes was no exception.

Jeff Blauser also struggled against NONE.
Andy Benes also dominated NONE.

#53. Sammy Sosa vs. Darryl Kile (9.8 RC, 64 PAs, 1994-2001) View match-up

Actual: 2.2 RC | 8-60 | .133/.172/.283 | 0.455 OPS | 23 K, 3 BB, 0 HBP
Expected: 12.0 RC | 17-56 | .295/.368/.598 | 0.966 OPS | 15 K, 7 BB, 0 HBP

The "red line of expectation," as exactly no one will call the expected RC line in these graphs, is typically almost linear. The PAs in a single season will always create a straight line but season to season the line will reflect the variability of batter performance and (usually) the gradual decline of Father Time. Sosa’s line is ever so exponential, reflecting his late-career performance boom. If you're looking for a cause, don't ask fellow listee Rafael Palmeiro.

Whatever the reason, Sosa’s performance against Kile would have failed to meet even the most modest expectations.

Sammy Sosa also struggled against Ismael Valdez (7.9 RC) and Roy Oswalt (6.6 RC).

Darryl Kile also dominated NONE.

I hope you've enjoyed this trip down Memory Lopsidedness Lane. Thanks for reading.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chad Evely 2012-05-18T07:15:15+00:00 Lopsided batter/pitcher match-ups of the 1980s http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/lopsided-batter-pitcher-matchups-of-the-1980s/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/lopsided-batter-pitcher-matchups-of-the-1980s/#When:06:33:15 Retrosheet and their brethren, we can now re-discover those lopsided match-ups.

This is the third of a four-part series highlighting match-ups in which pitchers most dominated batters. Today: the five most lopsided match-ups of the 1980s. For each, I have listed the overall ranking of lopsidedness to give you an idea of where it stands all-time. Match-ups are placed in a decade according to their median year. So if they first faced off in 1973 and last faced off in 1984, the median year is [(1973+1984) / 2] = 1978.5 and their match-up is placed in the '70s. To give an idea of the bias towards older match-ups, eight of the top nine come from the 1960s and every single matchup from 1-27 is from the '60s or '70s.

If you'd like to understand my methodology in more detail, take a gander at the original article.

No. 31. Robin Yount vs. Bert Blyleven (10.2 RC, 114 PAs, 1974-1992) View match-up

Actual: 6.0 RC | 20-110 | .182/.211/.300 | 0.511 OPS | 4 K, 4 BB, 0 HBP
Expected: 16.2 RC | 29-102 | .288/.350/.430 | 0.780 OPS | 12 K, 10 BB, 1 HBP

As a rookie, Robin Yount said, "If I have to face guys like Bert Blyleven, I don’t think I’m going to make it at this level." His words proved prophetic, as seen in his stat line. Luckily for Yount, he was allowed to face other pitchers as well; Hall of Fame voters would probably have voted differently if his career stats mirrored the .182 batting average against Blyleven.

Yount also struggled against NONE.
Blyleven also dominated Alvin Davis (8.6 RC), Sal Bando (8.4 RC), Bill Melton (8.2 RC), Reggie Jackson (8.0 RC), Pat Kelly (8.0 RC), Don Slaught (7.1 RC), Al Bumbry (6.8 RC) and George Brett (6.7 RC).

No. 41. Don Baylor vs. Rick Langford (10.0 RC, 53 PAs, 1977-1986) View match-up

Actual: -2.5 RC | 3-51 | .059/.094/.078 | 0.173 OPS | 10 K, 2 BB, 0 HBP
Expected: 7.5 RC | 12-46 | .266/.343/.446 | 0.789 OPS | 5 K, 5 BB, 1 HBP

Don Baylor is No. 4 on the all-time list in career HBP. Perhaps that Rick Langford never plunked him prevented him from feeling comfortable in their match-up. Regardless of the reason, the results were not pretty for Baylor. In the 53 career PAs between these players, Baylor had two hitless streaks of at least 16 PAs.

Baylor also struggled against Frank Tanana (7.4 RC).
Langford also dominated John Mayberry (7.3 RC).

No. 45. Gary Carter vs. Joaquin Andujar (9.9 RC, 88 PAs, 1977-1985) View match-up

Actual: 3.9 RC | 12-81 | .148/.207/.259 | 0.466 OPS | 9 K, 4 BB, 2 HBP
Expected: 13.8 RC | 22-78 | .283/.356/.486 | 0.843 OPS | 9 K, 9 BB, 1 HBP

After a career spent terrorizing Gary Carter, Joaquin Andujar certainly didn’t let up in the last year of their rivalry. During the first game of the 1985 season—Carter’s debut as a Met—Andujar drilled him in the elbow with a hard sinker in the first inning. In the third, Andujar struck Carter out looking and in the fourth got him to ground out with two outs and two on. Then, to add to Carter’s miserable day, Andujar stole second off him in the fifth, one of only seven steals in Andujar’s entire 13-year career. Ultimately, Carter had the last laugh that day with a walk-off homer in the 10th.

Carter also struggled against Rick Reuschel (8.8 RC), Mike Krukow (6.9 RC) and Joe Niekro (6.7 RC).
Andujar also dominated Keith Moreland (6.5 RC) .

No. 60. Brian Downing vs. Scott McGregor (9.5 RC, 85 PAs, 1977-1987) View match-up

Actual: 3.3 RC | 12-78 | .154/.212/.231 | 0.443 OPS | 2 K, 6 BB, 0 HBP
Expected: 12.8 RC | 19-72 | .272/.374/.441 | 0.815 OPS | 9 K, 11 BB, 1 HBP

Between 1977 and 1987, Brian Downing and Scott McGregor faced off in 27 games. In those games, McGregor’s team had a 19-8 record, likely helped by keeping Downing’s bat in check.

Downing also struggled against Mike Moore (6.7 RC).
McGregor also dominated Jason Thompson (6.7 RC).

No. 68. Claudell Washington vs. Nolan Ryan (9.1 RC, 102 PAs, 1974-1989) View match-up

Actual: 4.3 RC | 13-90 | .144/.225/.244 | 0.470 OPS | 39 K, 10 BB, 0 HBP
Expected: 13.5 RC | 26-94 | .278/.327/.424 | 0.751 OPS | 17 K, 7 BB, 1 HBP

Claudell Washington showed decent power (five doubles, two triples) against Nolan Ryan on those rare occurrences when he could actually manage to make contact with the ball. Struggling to do so against Ryan certainly wasn’t unique to Washington, but striking out in 37 percent plate appearances (compared to 17 percent for his career) dug a pretty deep hole that he couldn’t claw his way out of.

Washington also struggled against NONE.
Ryan also dominated Carlos May (8.6 RC), Chili Davis (8.1 RC), Jorge Orta (7.2 RC) and Thurman Munson (6.6 RC).

Stay tuned for our final article, highlighting the most lopsided match-ups of the 1990s and 2000s.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chad Evely 2012-05-11T06:33:15+00:00 Lopsided batter/pitcher match-ups of the 1970s http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/lopsided-batter-pitcher-matchups-of-the-1970s/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/lopsided-batter-pitcher-matchups-of-the-1970s/#When:06:53:15 Retrosheet and its brethren, we can now re-discover those lopsided matchups.

This is the second of a four-part series highlighting match-ups in which pitchers most dominated batters. Part one is here. Today: the five most lopsided match-ups of the 1970s.

For each match-up, I have listed the overall ranking of lopsidedness to give you an idea of where it stands all-time. These are placed in a decade according to the median year of the players' career match-ups. So if they first faced off in 1973 and last faced off in 1984, the median year is [(1973+1984) / 2] = 1978.5 and their match-up is placed in the '70s. To give an idea of the bias towards older match-ups, eight of the top nine match-ups come from the 1960s and every single one from 1-27 is from the '60s or '70s.

If you'd like to understand my methodology in more detail, take a gander at the original article.

No. 5. Frank Robinson vs. Catfish Hunter (14.1 RC, 108 PAs, 1966-1974) View match-up

Actual: 5.5 RC | 15-98 | .153/.231/.265 | 0.497 OPS | 17 K, 10 BB, 0 HBP
Expected: 19.6 RC | 27-91 | .294/.398/.534 | 0.932 OPS | 15 K, 14 BB, 2 HBP

Frank Robinson moved to the AL in 1966 for his age 30 season which, unfortunately for him, began his rivalry with Catfish Hunter. Perhaps it’s unfair to include this match-up given that, according to WAR, seven of Robinson’s top 10 offensive seasons came before he first faced Hunter. That the listed expected stats are based only on this latter part of Robinson’s career demonstrates just how dominant a hitter he was… against everyone but Catfish Hunter.

Frank Robinson also struggled against Don Drysdale (7.6 RC), Joe Gibbon (7.2 RC), Stan Williams (6.6 RC) and Bob Gibson (6.3 RC).

Catfish Hunter also dominated Amos Otis (10.3 RC), Ken McMullen (7.8 RC), Cesar Tovar (7.5 RC), Carl Yastrzemski (7.3 RC), Frank Howard (7.1 RC) and Aurelio Rodriguez (6.4 RC).

No. 10. Matty Alou vs. Gaylord Perry (12.4 RC, 108 PAs, 1966-1973) View match-up

Actual: 3.2 RC | 18-104 | .173/.204/.202 | 0.406 OPS | 7 K, 4 BB, 0 HBP
Expected: 15.6 RC | 33-101 | .326/.361/.398 | 0.759 OPS | 7 K, 5 BB, 1 HBP

Matty Alou and Gaylord Perry were teammates early in their careers, both in the minors and on the San Francisco Giants, but when Alou was traded to the Pirates for Joe Gibbon and Ozzie Virgil before the 1966 season a rivalry was born. Perry must have picked up some tips on how to pitch Alou when teammates because Alou managed only 18 hits in 104 ABs as opponents.

Matty Alou also struggled against Larry Jackson (7.7 RC).

Gaylord Perry also dominated Lee May (10.7 RC), Carl Yastrzemski (10.2 RC), George Scott (10.0 RC), Curt Flood (8.7 RC), Bob Bailey (8.5 RC) and Lou Brock (7.6 RC).

No. 13. Dick Allen vs. Fergie Jenkins (12.0 RC, 76 PAs, 1966-1977) View match-up

Actual: 1.6 RC | 12-75 | .160/.171/.240 | 0.411 OPS | 24 K, 1 BB, 0 HBP
Expected: 13.7 RC | 19-65 | .292/.383/.551 | 0.934 OPS | 17 K, 10 BB, 0 HBP

On July 10, 1990, at the age of 48, Dick Allen "jerked a pitch from Fergie Jenkins into the left-field bleachers for a three-run, first-inning homer" in an Old-Timers game at Wrigley Field. If only he had performed as well throughout their big-league careers, he might not have appeared on this list.

Dick Allen also struggled against Don Drysdale (11.5 RC), Luke Walker (6.6 RC) and Phil Niekro (6.5 RC).

Fergie Jenkins also dominated Deron Johnson (9.8 RC), Sal Bando (8.3 RC), Bobby Bonds (7.8 RC), Joe Rudi (7.5 RC) and Tommy Helms (6.7 RC).

No. 16. Pete Rose vs. Randy Jones (11.5 RC, 98 PAs, 1973-1982) View match-up

Actual: 3.7 RC | 17-93 | .183/.224/.204 | 0.429 OPS | 6 K, 5 BB, 0 HBP
Expected: 15.2 RC | 27-86 | .312/.390/.419 | 0.808 OPS | 5 K, 10 BB, 1 HBP

Over the course of their careers, Pete Rose had four different lengthy hitless streaks against Randy Jones. Rose, a switch-hitter, took an unorthodox approach to try to end the one spanning the 1975 and 1976 seasons: by batting left handed against the lefty Jones. Seeing this, Jones said, "You sure you want to do this?" "Oh, just pitch," Rose called back. Three sliders to the outside corner of the plate and one strikeout later, Rose retreated back to a dugout full of laughing teammates.

Pete Rose also struggled against Bob Forsch (8.2 RC), Jerry Reuss (7.1 RC) and Sandy Koufax (6.6 RC).

Randy Jones also dominated NONE.

No. 17. Roy White vs. Jim Kaat (11.4 RC, 89 PAs, 1966-1975) View match-up

Actual: 1.2 RC | 12-85 | .141/.169/.200 | 0.369 OPS | 12 K, 3 BB, 0 HBP
Expected: 12.6 RC | 21-77 | .272/.362/.412 | 0.774 OPS | 9 K, 11 BB, 0 HBP

I challenge anyone still reading to find something interesting that occurred between these two.

Roy White also struggle againstWilbur Wood (8.6 RC).
Jim Kaat also dominated Reggie Jackson (8.1 RC), Leon Wagner (7.1 RC) and Lee Thomas (6.8 RC).

Up next: the 1980s.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chad Evely 2012-05-04T06:53:15+00:00 Lopsided batter/pitcher match-ups http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/lopsided-batter-pitcher-matchups/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/lopsided-batter-pitcher-matchups/#When:08:28:15
For the purposes of this study, we’re interested not in those cases where a pitcher dominated a poor batter but where a pitcher dominated a good/great batter. That Hall of Famers feature prominently in the final list seems to indicate that we were successful. I’ll be brief in my description of the methodology, knowing that math-in-prose is not exactly the most popular writing form. If anyone is interested in the nitty-gritty, feel free to ask in the comments section.

After an explanation of the methodology, we'll look at the most lopsided match-ups of the late 1950s and 1960s. I've got three more articles lined up for more recent times, so stay tuned.

Methodology

At the core of the comparison, I needed a single number to describe offensive performance. I wanted it to be cumulative stat rather than a rate in order to pick out those match-ups with a large sample size rather than limited at-bat flukes. I settled on the 2002 version of Runs Created (hereafter referred to as "RC"), but removed the baserunning components to focus on the batter/pitcher match-up.

After some thought, I also removed the penalty for grounding into a double play; ultimately it didn’t seem fair to penalize the batter for grounding out with a runner on first if I wasn’t going to reward him for getting an RBI with a runner in scoring position. The RC stat gives a good approximation of the value of a plate appearance (hereafter referred to as "PA") on a scale that’s easy to understand and the 2002 version has the added benefit of approximating actual runs created in very small sample sizes, allowing us to view a fairly accurate value for a single PA.

For some context: in 2011, the average team scored 4.28 runs per game, while the total RC tallied was 4.32. Here are a couple of RC values scaled to an average season to give an idea of the range of values we’re talking about:

2011 MLB Avg, 502 PA:	57 RC
Mario Mendoza, Career 502 PA Avg:	26 RC
Barry Bonds, 2001, 502 PA:	139 RC

Now that we’ve decided on a statistic, we can start having some fun. To determine lopsided match-ups, we must first know how we expect the batter to fare. If Jeff Mathis hits like Jeff Mathis against a particular pitcher, it’s to be expected. If new teammate Jose Bautista hits like Jeff Mathis against a pitcher, we’re on to something. To establish this baseline of expected performance, only those seasons where a batter has at least 200 plate appearances are taken into account.

The batter’s season performance is then separated into two groups: all PAs against the pitcher in question and all other PAs. The RC against all other pitchers is divided by total PAs to determine how many runs we’re expecting that batter to create in a single plate appearance. This single PA expectation is then multiplied by the number of PAs against the pitcher in question to determine the total expected RC against that pitcher if the batter were to perform at the same level as his season averages.

The difference between the expected RC and the actual RC against the pitcher tells us whether the batter under- or over-performed over the course of a season and by how much. Once this difference is determined for each season these players faced each other, it is added across their careers to come up with the total difference in expected and actual RC in the match-up. In most cases, a large difference in a single season will even out over the course of a career, but those instances of sustained lopsidedness indicate the truly unbalanced match-ups we’re seeking.

This methodology was applied to all batter/pitcher match-ups between 1956 and 2011. I settled on 1956 as a starting point since it’s the first season where Retrosheet has play-by-play data for at least 95 percent of games played, which seemed like a reasonable threshold. I toyed with the idea of introducing a scaling factor to bring each year into a common scoring environment but ultimately decided the raw numbers better captured the spirit of the study.

Enough with the boring stuff and onto the results. For each match-up, I have given the actual stats against the pitcher as well as the "expected" stats if the batter were to have performed against that pitcher the same way he did against the rest of the competition he faced in the seasons in question. While far from a baseball historian, I have done a little research into each match-up to bring a little life to the numbers.

Over time, the average number of plate appearances between a particular batter and a particular pitcher has decreased, making our method inherently biased toward older match-ups, particularly the '50s and '60s. I would expect that the biggest culprits are expansion, scheduling changes, fifth starters, increased player movement and increased reliever usage. Since more plate appearances mean a higher magnitude of dominance for those older match-ups, rather than presenting a straight Top 10 list the results have been divided to show the top five match-ups in each decade.

For each match-up, I have listed the overall ranking of lopsidedness to give you an idea of where it stands all-time. Match-ups are placed in a decade according to the median year of their career match-ups. So if they first faced off in 1973 and last faced off in 1984, the median year is [(1973+1984) / 2] = 1978.5 and their match-up is placed in the '70s. To give an idea of the aforementioned era bias towards older match-ups, eight of the top nine match-ups come from the 1960s and every single match-up from 1-27 is from the '60s or '70s.

I have included a graph of each match-up, an explanation of which can be found in the comments for the No. 1 match-up (Eddie Mathews vs. Don Drysdale). I have also listed which additional pitchers a batter "struggled" against and conversely which additional batters a pitcher "dominated," showing any additional match-ups involving these players that appear in the top 500 all-time.

Let me know if you like this idea. I had originally planned to include the match-ups from the pitchers' perspective—those cases where a good pitcher struggled against a particular batter—but decided the article was long enough as is. I may still do this in the future if this idea seems as interesting to others as it has been to me.

Following are the top five lopsided match-ups between 1956 and 1960:

No. 1. Eddie Mathews vs. Don Drysdale (18.4 RC, 229 PAs, 1956-1967) View Matchup

Actual: 20.0 RC | 40-206 | .194/.275/.335 | 0.610 OPS | 32 SO, 21 BB, 2 HBP
Expected: 38.4 RC | 53-194 | .275/.378/.506 | 0.884 OPS | 33 SO, 32 BB, 1 HBP

On June 13, 1957 in the top of the 2nd, a brawl erupted after Drysdale hit Mathews’ teammate Johnny Logan with a pitch that led to both players’ ejections. Clicking the second link will take you to a Life article of the altercation, complete with a photograph of Mathews clocking Drysdale with a leaping right hand. The next season, on June 26, 1958, Drysdale beaned Mathews in the first inning. Up until this point, Mathews was dominating the match-up to the tune of 7-22 (.318/.400/.591) with two home runs. Whether the beanball allowed Drysdale to gain the upper hand or not, the rest of their career match-up belonged to Drysdale (33-184, .179/.256/.304).

The following graph gives a detailed account of the career match-up between Mathews and Drysdale. It contains a whole lot of information so it might look somewhat intimidating at first, but here is a brief explanation:
{exp:list_maker}The red line indicates the cumulative Runs Created (plotted on left-hand scale) that we would have expected Mathews to have produced as their career match-up progresses.
The black line indicates the cumulative Runs Created that Mathews actually produced, plotted on the left-hand scale.
The bars indicate the result of every plate appearance between these two players. The height corresponds to the Runs Created by that PA, plotted on the right-hand scale. A key at the top shows what each color means. For example: all green bars are hits, with the shortest being singles and the highest HRs. {/exp:list_maker}
Analyzing their match-up, we can see the aforementioned HBP indicated by the dark blue bar early in 1958. At that point, the black line is slightly above the red, showing us that Mathews had been producing better than expected up until that point in their match-up. Mathews’ production then leveled off and he couldn’t keep up with the slow, steady train of expectation.

Eddie Mathews also struggled against Mike McCormick (9.8 RC), Turk Farrell (7.9 RC), Johnny Klippstein (7.5 RC), Johnny Antonelli (7.1 RC) and Harvey Haddix (6.6 RC).

Don Drysdale also dominated Orlando Cepeda (15.1 RC), Dick Allen (11.5 RC), Joe Adcock (9.4 RC), Mike Shannon (7.6 RC), Felipe Alou (7.9 RC), Frank Robinson (7.6 RC) and Tom Haller (7.2 RC).

No. 2. Willie Davis vs. Juan Marichal (16.2 RC, 196 PAs, 1961-1973) View Matchup

Actual: 9.1 RC | 33-189 | .175/.185/.296 | 0.481 OPS | 23 SO, 2 BB, 1 HBP
Expected: 25.3 RC | 52-182 | .283/.318/.417 | 0.735 OPS | 19 SO, 9 BB, 1 HBP

Marichal hit Willie Davis with only one pitch during their long, intertwined careers but it was a big one, breaking Davis’ jaw in the third inning of a game on July 19, 1969. They had already matched up over 100 times at that point, so it’s hard to see a correlation to Davis’ struggles against Marichal but it is certainly interesting that two famous HBPs come up in our first two match-ups. Davis showed good power in this match-up but hit for a terrible average with very few walks.

Willie Davis also struggled against NONE.

Marichal also dominated Willie Stargell (12.5 RC), Johnny Roseboro (10.7 RC), Tony Taylor (10.6 RC), Ron Fairly (9.0 RC), Ernie Banks (7.5 RC), Gordy Coleman (7.1 RC), Johnny Edwards (7.0 RC), Tony Perez (7.0 RC), Rusty Staub (6.7 RC) and Sonny Jackson (6.5 RC).

No. 3. Charlie Neal vs. Bob Friend (15.5 RC, 103 PAs, 1957-1963) View Matchup

Actual: -1.9 RC | 9-95 | .095/.139/.116 | 0.254 OPS | 19 SO, 4 BB, 1 HBP
Expected: 13.6 RC | 24-90 | .265/.337/.413 | 0.750 OPS | 15 SO, 10 BB, 1 HBP

This match-up has less than half the career PAs of Mathews/Drysdale and just over half the career PAs of Davis/Marichal. It shows up this high in our rankings purely on the magnitude of awfulness that was Charlie Neal’s performance against Bob Friend. Take a look at those numbers; they’re wondrous.

Charlie Neal also struggled against Don Elston (6.9 RC).

Bob Friend also dominated NONE.

No. 4. Orlando Cepeda vs. Don Drysdale (15.1 RC, 164 PAs, 1958-1968) View Matchup

Actual: 12.8 RC | 35-154 | .227/.262/.305 | 0.567 OPS | 23 SO, 4 BB, 4 HBP
Expected: 28.0 RC | 47-150 | .310/.358/.528 | 0.886 OPS | 23 SO, 10 BB, 2 HBP

In his very first game as a big leaguer, Orlando Cepeda went 0-2 against Drysdale. However, once Drysdale was replaced in the fourth by Don Bessent, Cepeda homered in what was only his third major league at-bat. The Giants were on their way to an 8-0 victory and Cepeda was on his way to a Hall of Fame career. He did, however, never fare much better against Drysdale, who appears once again as the primary nemesis for a batter.

Drysdale appears four times in the all-time top 75 of this list (Dick Allen and Joe Adcock being the other tortured batters); surely leading the league in HBP in five different seasons must have played some part in getting into the heads of specific batters. Orlando Cepeda seems to have agreed, once saying "The trick against Drysdale is to hit him before he hits you."

Orlando Cepeda also struggled against Don Cardwell (8.4 RC)

Don Drysdale also dominated Eddie Mathews (18.4 RC), Dick Allen (11.5 RC), Joe Adcock (9.4 RC), Mike Shannon (7.6 RC), Felipe Alou (7.9 RC), Frank Robinson (7.6 RC) and Tom Haller (7.2 RC)

No. 6. Hank Aaron vs. Bob Gibson (13.9 RC, 180 PAs, 1959-1974) View Matchup

Actual: 19.5 RC | 35-163 | .215/.278/.423 | 0.701 OPS | 32 SO, 15 BB, 0 HBP
Expected: 33.4 RC | 48-159 | .305/.378/.569 | 0.946 OPS | 19 SO, 19 BB, 0 HBP

Hank Aaron wasn’t particularly terrible in this match-up, but he suffers from years of establishing high expectations. Although he was never hit by a Bob Gibson pitch Aaron still seems to have thought about it, once giving the following advice to a young Dusty Baker:

"Don't dig in against Bob Gibson; he'll knock you down. He'd knock down his own grandmother if she dared to challenge him. Don't stare at him, don't smile at him, don't talk to him. He doesn't like it. If you happen to hit a home run, don't run too slow, don't run too fast. If you happen to want to celebrate, get in the tunnel first. And if he hits you, don't charge the mound, because he's a Gold Glove boxer."

Hank Aaron also struggled against Jack Sanford (9.9 RC), Jim Brosnan (9.2), Glen Hobbie (8.8 RC), Turk Farrell (7.5 RC), Don Sutton (7.4 RC), Tom Seaver (6.9 RC) and Bob Bruce (6.8 RC).

Bob Gibson also dominated Roberto Clemente (12.9 RC), Willie Mays (9.8 RC), Tony Perez (9.6 RC), Ron Santo (8.7 RC), Bill Mazeroski (8.6 RC), Rusty Staub (7.9 RC), Jim Hickman (7.6 RC), Tony Taylor (7.4 RC), Maury Wills (7.1 RC), Glenn Beckert (7.0 RC), Jerry Grote (6.9 RC) and Frank Robinson (6.3 RC).

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chad Evely 2012-04-27T08:28:15+00:00 Verlander’s strong starts, revisited http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/verlanders-strong-starts-revisited/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/verlanders-strong-starts-revisited/#When:09:23:15
Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chad Evely 2011-11-17T09:23:15+00:00 Justin Verlander’s strong starts http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/justin-verlanders-strong-start/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/justin-verlanders-strong-start/#When:08:29:15 Justin Verlander looked unhittable. As Tigers fans can attest, when his curveball is working and he doesn’t rely too heavily on his fastball, looking unhittable is nothing new for Verlander. This particular no-hit bid unraveled in the eighth, due in part to a preening ex-star, an ejected hothead and poor fielding by Verlander himself. The knockout blow came off the bat of Maicer Izturis with two outs in the inning, ending Verlander’s chance for a second no-hitter of the season four outs short.

Beyond his unhittable-ness, Verlander has shown an amazing ability to start games strong this season. Twice (including Sunday), Verlander has lost a no-hit bid after seven innings, once more after five and four other times after three innings. Additionally, he has begun his day with three perfect innings—one full time through the opposing batting order—five total times. These numbers see quite impressive, but how do they compare with other pitchers throughout history? (Because of the limitations of the available data, the rest of this article will deal only with the 1960 season and later.)

First, let’s look at Verlander’s 2011 season and how deep into each game he took his no-hit/perfect game bid. The listed number of outs is the last out before the no-hitter ended. For example, his first start’s listed six outs indicates that he pitched two full innings of no-hit baseball and the 10 outs in his second start indicates three full innings plus one additional out (3.1 innings).

To determine how Verlander’s season of strong starts compares historically, a simple scoring method will be applied to pick out other great seasons. Since a no-hit bid becomes more difficult and unlikely the deeper into the game it goes, a strictly linear score will not do. Most would probably agree that a nine-inning no-hitter is more than three times more difficult than a three-inning one. To compensate for this, a simple compounding element will be added. Additionally a bonus will be added to reward a pitcher for how deep into the game he stayed perfect (no walks, errors, hit batsmen, etc.). The formula for our “Strong Start Score,” then, is simply:

{exp:list_maker}Take number of outs the no-hit bid lasted
Multiply by the last full inning of no-hit baseball completed
Add the number of full innings pitcher stayed perfect for, squared {/exp:list_maker}As an example, Verlander’s no-hit bid on Sunday lasted 23 outs or 7.2 innings, making his base Strong Start Score equal to 161 (23*7). His perfect day lasted until he walked Bobby Abreu with two outs in the fourth. Since his bid for a perfect game lasted three full innings, we’ll add nine points (3*3), making the total Strong Start Score for this game 170 points. By tying our score to both the number of outs and number of full innings we reward pitchers for every out while also reflecting how the excitement and tension of a no-hitter is ratcheted up with each full inning that passes.

Now that the mathematical housekeeping is taken care of, we can look at some of the greatest seasons of strong starts since 1960. The following list was compiled by applying the previously described scoring method to every game, then adding together all of a pitcher’s starts over the course of a season. The seasons are sorted by total score but a per-game average is also shown. The number of times each pitcher took a no-hit bid past the fifth through ninth innings is also listed:

It’s certainly no surprise that Nolan Ryan—the owner of seven career no-hitters—features prominently on this list, although it is somewhat surprisingly that his best season is one that didn’t feature a no-hitter. Of all pitchers with more than 10 games pitched, Jose DeLeon in 1983 has the highest per-game average (39.6), but starting only 15 games prevented him from making the list. In those 15 starts, however, he took four different no-hit bids into the sixth inning.

How does Justin Verlander’s 2011 season compare to this list? In just 24 starts, Verlander already ranks No. 5, with a per-game average below only the aforementioned Jose De Leon season. Here is his current line:

If we project this line to include 10 more starts, he will reside at the top of the list by a wide margin:

Whether he achieves this ambitious projection or not (how exactly does one throw 0.4 no-hitters?) Verlander’s 2011 season is already one of the greatest of all-time, making each of the rest of his starts must-watch events, not just for Tigers fans but for baseball fans everywhere.

For those interested in seeing the distribution of every partial no-hit bid since 1960, the following chart shows the total number of no-hit bids that lasted up until a certain point in the game. As an example, 2,953 pitchers had a no-hitter after 15 outs (five innings), but only 2,273 of them were able to get that first out of the sixth inning.

Interestingly, there are two instances where a no-hitter lasted into and through the 10th inning and both were achieved by Jim Maloney in 1965. In the first game, his no-hit bid was lost (along with the game) when he gave up a solo home run to lead off the 11th. In the second, his teammates came through with a solo home run of their own in the top of the 10th and Maloney finished off the no-hitter in the bottom half of the inning.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chad Evely 2011-08-03T08:29:15+00:00