The Hardball Times -- Chris Neault http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-24T08:08:15+00:00 Carlos Beltran Surgery: What to Expect in 2010 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/carlos-beltran-surgery-what-to-expect-in-2010/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/carlos-beltran-surgery-what-to-expect-in-2010/#When:08:51:15 Carlos Beltran when he was confined to exercising in a pool for a significant part of the year. All of the symptoms - right knee pain with weight bearing, pain with any type of jogging or running, cutting and pivoting, swelling - all screamed to an articular cartilage problem. The "bone bruise", as it was diagnosed, was actually Osteoarthritis (OA). Bone bruises are painful much in the same way as OA, but they get substantially better given enough time. OA really does not.

It is now announced that he underwent microfracture surgery on his right knee today - a surgery that will certainly sideline him for three months, and in most cases for people who have this done, longer. It is interesting to note that Beltran went with his own physician - Dr. Richard Steadman (Colorado), who is one of the foremost leaders in microfracture surgery anywhere.

Could he be back in three to four months? Sure he could, but it is not likely. Every knee is different, and depending on the location of the cartilage defect, the size and the depth of the defect, recovery could be different. Not to mention that each individual deals with injury differently, and perceives pain differently. There's really no easy answer.

Beltran should miss the entire Spring Training schedule, but it really would not surprise me if he struggled with his rehab and has this linger into May or June. I say this due to the chronic nature of his knee pain and the fact that with any chronic, painful condition, what once were normal movement patterns can become quite altered (compensatory gait, altered balance and motor skills/proprioception about the joint).

Even if he does come back this season, what are the chances that he will have the same speed, agility, and explosiveness that has made him a fantasy mainstay for so many years? We already know that he is not a lock for a high batting average (although he has had a couple .300-plus seasons), and his stolen base totals are now going to be on life support. He has also had a three-year decline in his SLG%, ISO, and HR totals, and has become more of a ground ball hitter, as evidenced by his three-year increase in GB%.

I am ignoring him completely in all draft formats, unless it is an NL-only league with a couple of DL spots for stashing.

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Colby Rasmus, St. Louis: He reminds me of Grady Sizemore, but with less speed. Don't think just because he only has one stolen base this season that he doesn't have the wheels. In the minors, he averaged nearly 15 steals per season, which may translate to 10-12 in MLB. I don't care who you are, if you hit behind Albert Pujols, you're going to get the best opportunities possible to produce. Rasmus has been a top prospect for a few years now, and he is finally starting to show his skills at the major league level. He could eclipse the 40-double mark this year, and while his average should dip to a more reasonable .270-ish range, it wouldn't surprise me to see him accrue 65 RBI by season's end.

Nolan Reimold, Baltimore: Formerly the No. 3 prospect in the Orioles organization, Reimold has finally earned every day playing time with the Birds. The way he has been playing, he could be the dark horse for AL ROY. The power is there, and his plate discipline has been pretty darn good. I would compare him to Conor Jackson, except with more power potential. Once some of his teammates begin to rebound from slumps (Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora), the RBI opportunities will rise. I could see him finishing the season with close to 20 HR and 70 RBI with a .280 average.

Chris Young, Arizona: You don't go from hitting 54 HR and 170 RBI combined over the previous two seasons to hitting a measly six HR in nearly 250 plate appearances this season. His walk and strikeout rates remain very similar to the past few seasons, which is encouraging, but the main difference is that his GB/FB rate is so much lower than what has been the norm for him. He could be pressing a bit, so it could be a batting mechanics issue causing him to keep popping the ball up (his HR/FB rate is down sharply). If he can figure things out, expect a rebound in the second half. He is nursing a groin injury right now, but it is unlikely that he will need to miss any great length of time, so I would try to trade for him now while you still can get good value. He may even be lingering on some free agent lists in some mixed leagues.

Jay Bruce, Cincinnati: This guy launched 21 HR as a rookie last season and has had a very rough go of it in 2009. His BABIP is currently the lowest among all qualifying players in MLB at a ghastly .199! A guy with this type of talent simply should not be hitting this badly. While a demotion doesn't seem likely, he may benefit from some time off to get his head straight. In the meantime, check and see if he is available on your free agent list and snag him for what could be a resurgence in the second half. He is way too good to keep hitting this poorly (just look at how he severely crushed minor league pitching).

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The MRI came back showing only a grade I sprain, and nothing more. More importantly, Marmol is feeling fine now, and he was able to throw a pain-free bullpen session today. He is going to be available to pitch on Tuesday. This is nothing for fantasy owners to worry about going forward. With Kevin Gregg currently in the doghouse, Marmol seems to be entrenched as the closer for the Cubs. It was ridiculous for Lou Piniella to tab Gregg as the closer at the beginning of the season, when Marmol was clearly the better pitcher. Place Marmol back in your lineup with confidence.

Trevor Hoffman was activated on Sunday, after spending time on the DL since March 30 with an oblique strain. When I think of Hoffman, I can't help but think of Troy Percival. Other than their proximity in age, these are two guys who are going to be injury prone for the rest of their careers. With Hoffman back in the closer's seat, Carlos Villanueva shifts back to a setup role, and makes for a fine addition in leagues that count holds. In Yahoo leagues, Villanueva has dual eligibility (SP/RP). Hoffman owners may want to keep him on speed dial, if not on their roster.

Jose Valverde's strained right calf is going to keep him out at least through mid-week, as he aggravated the injury on Sunday after pushing off to run towards first base on a grounder. He had already been out of action from last Wednesday through Friday. The fact that his injury was aggravated without much activity, and that he has what is called "pitting edema" in his lower leg (i.e. moderate swelling that leaves an indentation in the skin when pressed) indicates that it was probably a grade 2 strain. He is still limping quite noticeably, so the prospects of having him ready by Friday are poor. The Astros are trying to avoid placing him on the DL, but I wouldn't bet on a return this week, so I would say he is probably 70 percent likely to hit the DL. Latroy Hakwins is the de facto closer in his absence. You've got to be pretty desperate for saves if you want to add Hawkins.

Joakim Soria is going to be treated with kid gloves, so if there is any hint that he isn't right by the end of the week, he probably will be sent to the DL. He is clearly the most valuable pitcher in their bullpen, if not their entire staff, so don't be surprised if he doesn't return this week. He has been dealing with a sore, stiff right shoulder. As we have learned, this type of nomenclature can be misleading. This phrase has been used in situations where the injury ended up being a rotator cuff tear, labrum tear, tendonitis, and more, so you never know.

An encouraging sign was that Soria threw 30-35 easy throws yesterday in a bullpen session on flat ground, without pain, but it was well under maximal effort. If the Royals were overly concerned, or if there was something more serious going on, he would not have been allowed to even pick up a ball. This tells me that there is probably no rotator cuff or labral tear to worry about here. This could be a situation similar to what Matt Lindstrom dealt with earlier this spring. With Soria likely to be out until the weekend at the earliest, Juan Cruz and Kyle Farnsworth are the options to close out games. Cruz is the one I would target, and the better pitcher overall for the job.

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1. Will Josh Johnson continue to improve, following his successful return in 2008?


Absolutely. He is further removed from Tommy John surgery, and even when he returned early last year, his stuff was scintillating at times. With a repertoire consisting of a fastball, slider, and changeup, he is able to keep hitters honest. His average fastball was in the 93-94 mph range last year, which was up from previous seasons, when he averaged 91-92. So far, spring training has seen Johnson pitch some lights-out baseball. Not only has he logged 16 innings of two-run ball, but he has also issued only four walks while posting a 1.13 ERA with 14 strikeouts. Wednesday’s outing was very good, as he struck out seven batters in just five innings.

Typically, pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery have difficulty harnessing their control, as they regain their “feel” for the ball and their release point. On occasion, pitchers returning from TJ surgery will have some tingling or numbness in the medial digits of the hand, which can lead to decreased ability to fine tune the grip and release of the ball. Also, the decrease in joint awareness (proprioception) at the elbow due to the removal of the UCL and its receptors that send information on joint position (proprioceptors) is yet another obstacle pitchers have to face.

In 14 starts last season, he went 7-1 over 87.3 innings pitched, amassing 77 strikeouts and walking a mere 27 batters. His BB/9 rate of 2.78 was better than his breakout campaign of 2006 when he held a rate of 3.90. His K/BB ratio of 2.85 was much improved when compared to 1.96 in ’06. He was better than Johan Santana in terms of FIP (3.41 vs. 3.51), and essentially the same in K/G (8.2 for J.J., 8.3 for Johan), all while inducing ground balls 47.6 percent of the time.

Given these numbers, I would expect Johnson to be even better in 2009. Expect him to log close to 180 innings, with 12-15 wins not nearly out of the question. He could end up being the Marlins best starter this year. I would project his line to be something like: 180 innings, 14 wins, 3.40 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 161 strikeouts.


2. Will the rest of the young Marlins pitching staff step up and become the best rotation in the NL East?


The Nationals clearly own the worst rotation in the division, and the Mets have an average to sub-par setup following Santana. The Phillies are going to trot out Chan Ho Park and Joe Blanton, while hoping to get another solid year from the ageless wonder, Jamie Moyer.

This leaves the revamped Braves rotation (offseason additions of Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, and Kenshin Kawakami) and the talented youth of the Marlins as the top two rotations in the division, in my opinion. The young Marlins hurlers have the ability to be very solid in ’09. Ricky Nolasco (1.10 WHIP, 186 strikeouts), Josh Johnson (7-1), Chris Volstad (2.88 ERA), and Andrew Miller all posted FIPs under 4.00, while no-hitter alum, Anibal Sanchez, continues to work into form following rotator cuff surgery. Of these, Johnson, Volstad, and Sanchez all threw less than 85 innings last season. If Miller can continue to improve by maintaining his strikeout rate, lowering his walk and HR/G ratios, we may be looking at the most complete one through four rotation in the division, or one of the best in the entire NL.


3. Is Cameron Maybin going to be successful as a leadoff hitter?


Yes, but only if he can continue to raise his selectivity at the plate and draw more walks. If he reverts back to the form he displayed back when he was rushed to the show by the Tigers, then he will have to be moved from the leadoff spot. His minor league numbers indicate that he should be close to a 1/2 BB/K player, but he will more than likely maintain a 30 percent strikeout rate, meaning that you can bank on 140-150 strikeouts this year.

He is having a tremendous spring training thus far, and if you look at his late-season production from last year (16-for-32, four stolen bases, perfect fielding percentage), you can see the glimpses of what this guy can bring to the table as an all-around player. He is going to get plenty of game action this season, and the Marlins will let him run. And run some more. Especially with Hanley Ramirez likely to be used more sparingly on the base paths, in an attempt to avoid injury to his surgically repaired left shoulder.

In 500 at-bats this season (which he is likely to get), I would put Maybin at around a .270 average, with 15 home runs, 60 RBIs, and about 35 steals. While 100 runs is going to be quite a reach, I would bet on around 80-85.

4. How will the closer’s role pan out?


The 100-mph (averaging 97 mph fastball), flame-throwing Matt Lindstrom is already dealing with a rotator cuff strain, and is sidelined for the next week or so. Ultimately, I foresee Leo Nunez claiming the role and running away with it. Nunez was a solid, if unspectacular pitcher last year with the Royals, but he has the ability to notch seven strikeouts’s per 9 innings. His WHIP of 1.24 in both ’08 and ’07 will probably hold around that level, while his ERA will land somewhere in the mid-3.00s.

Lindstrom has the live arm and the higher strikeout potential, but is generally considered to be wilder with his command and may not be best suited for the big pressure situations late in games where walks will absolutely kill you. He probably will never notch a WHIP under 1.30, but his ERA will stay in the low-3.00s due to his ability to induce the ground ball to get out of jams. Lindstrom will get first crack at the closing duties when he returns from his cuff strain, but I still have a hunch that this is a time sharing opportunity, and that Nunez is going to end up with more saves when all is said and done.

5. Is Gaby Sanchez the answer at first base? What about Dallas McPherson?


If spring training is any indication, then no, neither of them are the answer. McPherson has struck out 11 times in just 37 AB for a .237 BA, while drawing only one walk. He also has no home runs after showing colossal home run prowess in Triple-A last year (42 home runs). Sanchez is also struggling, as he has only six hits in 30 at-bats, for a .226 batting average prior to Wednesday’s 2-for-5 performance. Neither player has shown the willingness to take a walk, though Sanchez’s minor league record shows that he is a very patient hitter who is capable of a solid average and average to moderate power.

After McPherson landed in the Marlins organization last year, he drastically improved his walk rates. If McPherson doesn’t get back on track with his plate approach, he could be playing himself out of more regular playing time. If Sanchez is not handed the first base gig, then Jorge Cantu could also slide across the diamond and play first, while a platoon of Wes Helms and McPherson would be at third. The return of Alfredo Amezaga would further cloud the situation and add more time-sharing possibilities.



Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Neault 2009-03-19T05:04:15+00:00 Fantasy Quandary: The Alex Rodriguez Hip Surgery http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-quandary-the-alex-rodriguez-hip-surgery/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-quandary-the-alex-rodriguez-hip-surgery/#When:04:28:15 Alex Rodriguez to be undraftable (I called him a “major risk”), there are likely just as many managers out there who are strongly considering him for an early or mid-round selection (especially in head-to-head leagues with DL spots). The aim of this article is to describe the anatomy, the surgical procedure, implications for the baseball athlete, and the resulting fantasy scenarios that have arisen from the situation.

The History

In a physical examination during spring training, Yankees team physician Chris Ahmad advised Rodriguez to seek consultation with renowned hip specialist Dr. Marc Phillippon. As a result, it was found that he had a tear in his labrum, as well as a cyst on the labrum that needed to be drained. The cyst was the minor aspect of his condition, and was a secondary result—not the cause—of the labrum tear.

Initially, the Yankees reported that Rodriguez would opt to play out the season with the stiffness in his right hip, choosing conservative rehabilitative efforts and anti-inflammatory medication over invasive surgery that could have potentially sidelined him for upwards of four months.

The decision to go the conservative route did not last long, however, as it was reported shortly after he had the cyst drained that he would undergo arthroscopic surgery that would allow him to return during the season, and would, in essence, partially correct his hip problems.

The Anatomy

Here is a fantastic illustration of the Acetabulum and the Labrum (from the Journal of the American Physical Therapy Association Website). The labrum is a rim of fibrocartilage that lines the rim of the hip socket that reduces contact stress and provides stability (1) to an already deep and stable hip joint by increasing it’s depth by 21 percent. It is wide and thin in the front, and thick in the posterior aspect. Due to poor blood supply, the labrum often requires surgical repair to approximate the torn edges. The outer one-third of the labrum has limited blood supply, so small, focal tears to these regions may heal over time with rest (not typical).

If left untreated, the rate of degeneration of the hip may increase, likely leading to the early need of hip replacement or resurfacing procedures. The labrum is usually torn with sports and activities that require repetitive twisting and rotation with the hip—especially when combined with axial loading (weight bearing) and rapid hip flexion and extension.

The Effects on Rodriguez’s Game

A-Rod’s tear is in the posterior labrum, which is often torn with repetitive hip extension combined with abduction and external rotation—much like when a third baseman/shortstop must push off forcefully to get to a hard hit for a backhand attempt. It may also be torn by axial loading combined with forceful rotation; such is the case with the act of swinging the bat.

We may see hesitance at the plate when he returns, so you can probably expect a decline in his power numbers this season once he returns. He may also struggle to hit pitches on the inner half of the plate, which requires greater pelvic rotation (and hence, hip rotation) to get the bat through the zone. In addition, the Yankees will likely decide to run Rodriguez less frequently as well, leading to much lower stolen base numbers.

Here is a nice illustration (from the New York Times) that describes the hip labrum and shows how the labrum is affected by baseball activities.

The Surgery

Dr. Marc Phillippon performed surgery on Rodriguez on Monday morning in Vail, Colo. The procedure was a "hybrid" surgery that would allow for him to return to the field sooner than later. Phillippon expects him to be out for six to nine weeks. Brian Cashman reported today that he expects Rodriguez to return to game action “sometime in May.”

Monday’s surgery—the first in a series of two—included a labral repair (sutures are used to repair the tear), debridement (as is standard in arthroscopy), and a small "Pincer" impingement trimming. This is where there is osseous (bone) malformation on the rim of the socket that needs to be smoothed down to prevent pinching and discomfort in the hip. It also allows for the hip to extend (in this case because it was in the posterior aspect of the joint) more smoothly and without painful interruption.

A-Rod will still need to have an additional surgery in the offseason to address the "Cam" impingement (Femoral head against the socket). Sometimes in a hip arthroscopy, the surgeon will find bone spurs that grow along the rim of the Acetabulum (hip socket) that create Femoroacetabular impingement, and can also lead to further labral tearing, cartilage degeneration, cyst formation, and pain. Dr. Phillippon said that Rodriguez would “absolutely” be ready for the start of spring training in 2010.

The offseason surgery will be reserved for any additional repair of the labrum (if needed), and to address the "Cam” portion of the impingement, which is located on the Femoral head. Sometimes, this includes chondroplasty or microfracture procedures, depending on the extent of damage.

Fantasy Implications

Previously, I had written that I would not be taking A-Rod early in fantasy drafts even if he did not opt for surgery: "For what it is worth, I am not going to be drafting A-Rod in the first round. Given this news, I probably would not draft him unless he drops to the third round or later (which probably won't happen), so it looks like I will not have A-Rod on any of my teams in 2009."

Well, now I won't be taking A-Rod before round five. If he fell to round six or seven, I would snag him and hope for the best, but I won't be gambling on my core of players from the first five rounds. The decision to draft A-Rod also largely depends on the format of your league (H2H vs. Roto), roster size, and DL spots. In H2H leagues with ample DL spots, you could try to wait and draft A-Rod in the third, fourth, or even fifth rounds, and stash him on your DL until he returns. In roto leagues, where cumulative stats are the name of the game, you probably would be best served to wait a couple of rounds later if you decided to draft A-Rod at all.

The best-case scenario has A-Rod returning in late April or early/mid May. Even then, there is no guarantee that he will be completely pain-free, though he should be more comfortable. Remember, he will still have some structural restriction remaining from the "Cam" impingement that is to be addressed in the offseason.

The fantasy impact also extends to the rest of the Yankees lineup, particularly to new addition Mark Teixeira. Tex will no longer have A-Rod’s bat in the lineup, which will take away some favorable pitches, but he is certainly no slouch at the plate either. While his RBI totals will rise over the first month-plus, it is uncertain how the lineup will play out once A-Rod returns. It is probably 50-50 as to whether Teixeira hits in front of or behind Rodriguez.

In the meantime, Yankees fans will have to get used to seeing Cody Ransom over at the hot corner, unless they go out and acquire a more proven veteran.

Projections for Alex Rodriguez in 2009

He will likely miss all of April and part of early May. Even when he returns, he will likely exhibit a decrease in power, batting average, and stolen bases. It is also not out of the realm of possibility that his hip acts up and sends him to the DL at some point when he returns. These hip procedures tend to be finicky at times, especially when work is done to the bone. Also, remember that he still has some areas of deficiency in the hip that will need to be addressed in the offseason. If the Yankees fall out of contention somehow, A-Rod may be shut down early so that he is more likely to be ready for spring training in 2010.

My preliminary forecast for the balance of the season is .282/.378/.505, 21 HR, 70 RBI, and 5 SB.

References

(1) Tan V, Seldes RM, Katz MA, et al. Contribution of acetabular labrum to articulating surface area and femoral head coverage in adult hip joints: an anatomic study in cadavera. Am J Orthop 2001;30 :809 –812.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Neault 2009-03-11T04:28:15+00:00 Jeff Francis likely sidelined http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/jeff-francis-likely-sidelined-with-shoulder-injury/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/jeff-francis-likely-sidelined-with-shoulder-injury/#When:06:34:15 Jeff Francis dealt with pain in his throwing shoulder that eventually landed him on the DL. At the time, it was considered to be nothing major, but even after he returned from the DL, he was never the same, and ended up back on the shelf. Now it is being reported that he may undergo “exploratory surgery” on the same shoulder.

While Francis is not a stud fantasy pitcher, he can be very useful in NL-only and deep mixed leagues. Managers in such leagues are going to want to know what to expect from him in 2009, because he is a good source of wins and serviceable ratios and strikeouts.

So, what is going on with Francis, and what kind of production—if any—can you expect in 2009? In a situation like this, it makes most sense to look at the past, and see how it relates to what is going on in the present.

Rewind to 2008

Last season, he was put on the DL in June, and after three rehab starts, he returned to the Rockies in August, only to succumb to persistent shoulder pain toward the end of the month. He ended the season with a dismal 5.01 ERA and a 4-10 record, logging only 24 starts.

Last year, manager Clint Hurdle said, “He’s been suffering from an inconsistent arm slot since Opening Day…I don’t think he’s felt the inflammation since then, but it’s become more a part of the problem.” Unless Francis had been trying to alter his arm slot intentionally, you can figure that something was causing him to do so.

If pain from raising his arm and shoulder higher made him change his delivery, it probably indicates some form of rotator cuff-related pathology.

Progress is slow in 2009

Francis is still in the phase of his throwing program where he is throwing only on flat ground, and is currently throwing from 120 feet. He is behind schedule if he plans to be back by Opening Day. He had announced in January that he would not pitch in the World Baseball Classic for Canada.

When I hear the phrase “exploratory surgery,” I usually fear the worst. The term usually is used when it is uncertain what is causing a particular set of symptoms. He already has gone the route of rest, rehabilitation, cortisone injections and throwing programs. A recent MRI revealed the increasingly used “no structural damage.” Though this phrase is sometimes correct, it does not mean that nothing is wrong. Not in the least.

More concerning to me is when I read things like, “If it turns out that Francis does require surgery, he wants to have it as soon as possible so that it won't affect his 2010 season.” What this means to me is that it is possible that those close to the situation fear that the surgery will reveal damage that will require season-ending surgery. A simple arthroscopic debridement would not end his season. A repair of the rotator cuff and/or labrum certainly would.

So, what is taking so long? Everything seems to be pointing to some form of rotator cuff pathology.

Francis has been quoted as saying, "I've done a lot of shoulder strengthening of the decelerator muscles. I had some instability and some weaknesses there. That's what we've been working on the last three or four months.” The decelerator muscles are the rotator cuff muscles, primarily the external rotators (infraspinatus, supraspinatus, and teres minor).

In addition, Francis’ agent, Jim Lindell, has said that there is fluid build-up in the front of Francis’ shoulder and that it is “sore all the time.” These are not good signs. Fluid retention and pain in the area—especially after having a Cortisone injection—could indicate that the damage is more on the serious side.

If the problem is not structural, i.e. cartilage or bone, then the cause of the swelling must be ligament, tendon, joint capsule or muscle. It is anyone’s guess at this time, but we should find out soon enough.

Fantasy outlook

I would not expect the results of an exploratory surgery to lean in his favor. If he has yet to respond to conservative treatment, it is likely because more invasive intervention is necessary. Given his symptoms, this might not be a good thing. If I were an NL-only or deep mixed league manager who has yet to draft, I would put Francis on my “avoid” list—just take him off your draft board entirely. Even if he is able to return to action in ’09, he probably won’t start enough games to warrant a selection on draft day.



Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Neault 2009-02-06T06:34:15+00:00 Troy Glaus to Miss Start of Season http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/troy-glaus-to-miss-start-of-season/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/troy-glaus-to-miss-start-of-season/#When:15:57:15
Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Neault 2009-01-23T15:57:15+00:00 Cubs, Red Sox and Indians add injury risks http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/cubs-red-sox-and-indians-add-injury-risks/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/cubs-red-sox-and-indians-add-injury-risks/#When:05:01:15 Brad Penny to a one-year deal, while the Yankees have finally washed their hands of Carl Pavano's hideous contract (the Indians signed him to a one-year deal). Meanwhile, the Cubs strapped themselves with what seems to be a questionable three-year deal with the oft-injured Milton Bradley . What makes this deal look worse is that the Rays were able to snag Pat Burrell for two years and $16 million.

Brad Penny

In the case of Penny, the deal makes sense for both sides. Penny gets to play for a contender, while the Red Sox receive insurance in case Tim Wakefield's shoulder acts up again, or if Clay Buchholz doesn't pan out the way they hope he will. There are also lingering questions about the durability of Josh Beckett following last season's struggles with numerous injuries.

The only downside here is that Penny dealt with an ailing shoulder through a great portion of the '08 season, and his numbers are going to slide regardless with a move to Fenway. His road numbers historically have been worse than his home splits.

Penny is a risk due to his lengthy history of biceps injuries, as well as shoulder, forearm and back strains. In 2008, he was diagnosed with tendinitis, bursitis, inflammation and scar tissue formation (though the latter two are not actually diagnoses). I am not sold on his shoulder problems being past him. When healthy, he usually strikes out six to seven batters per game, but the past two seasons this has dropped to four or five. His walk rates and home run rates also have increased.

Steer clear. I would add him only in the late rounds of your mixed league drafts. If he ends up on your waiver wire and he lands a spot in the rotation during spring training, add him and hope for the best. Remember, he will not be pitching in a friendly home stadium any longer. He probably will end up in the 4.25-4.50 ERA range, and he will be detrimental in the WHIP department—likely in the 1.35-1.45 area.

Carl Pavano

The Indians plan to slot Pavano in the rotation behind Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona and Anthony Reyes, though Reyes and Pavano could swap places. He could make his season debut at the new Yankee Stadium against his former team. Though his stats in 2008 were certainly not eye-popping (4-2, 5.77 ERA, 15 strikeouts in 34.1 innings), he had impressed enough teams with his physical attributes to draw some attention in the offseason. At least three other teams were interested in adding him, including Boston.

He has never been a big strikeout guy, and his record has been extremely volatile, even going back to his early days in Montreal. His ceiling is probably as a decent, if not erratic, fourth or fifth starter. A good projection for Pavano is an ERA somewhere in the mid-to-high 4s with five or six strikeouts per nine innings. Due to his injury history, you can't expect much more than about 15 starts, with anything additional being a bonus.

I am avoiding him in in drafts of all but the deepest mixed leagues. AL-only owners might target him late in their drafts with the expectations of him being a boom or complete bust, and should have several solid options before even considering him.


Milton Bradley

Bradley always has been a player who, if healthy, can take over games and carry a team. This was evident last season when he was able to produce sweet numbers in the Rangers lineup. He also plays plus defense. Of course, the downside is his inability to stay healthy for extended periods. He has played more than 100 games only three times in his career (more than 120 only twice). Expect more of the same from Bradley—.300/.390/.540, 15-20 homers and 65-70 RBI— assuming he stays healthy.

As always, Bradley should be drafted in the middle rounds of mixed leagues, preferably as a third or fourth outfielder. In weekly head-to-head leagues, he is capable of carrying teams to wins single-handedly when he's on a hot streak.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Neault 2009-01-09T05:01:15+00:00 John Smoltz to the Red Sox? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/john-smoltz-to-the-red-sox/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/john-smoltz-to-the-red-sox/#When:06:20:15
Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Neault 2009-01-08T06:20:15+00:00 What can we expect from Carlos Quentin in ‘09? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/what-can-we-expect-from-carlos-quentin-in-09/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/what-can-we-expect-from-carlos-quentin-in-09/#When:05:03:15 Carlos Quentin was either the biggest draft day steal or the most shrewd free agent/waiver pickup of the 2008 fantasy baseball season. Owners who had Quentin on their roster almost certainly were competing for the league title at season’s end. My friend Ray added him in our 12-team league, and the combination of him, Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun and Geovany Soto was simply too much to handle. He went on to win the league in just his second season of playing fantasy baseball! Great stuff.

Unfortunately, Quentin suffered a season-ending injury that cut his breakout campaign short. He was among the league leaders in many offensive categories at the time of his self-inflicted hand injury. Quentin was a legitimate candidate for AL MVP at the time of his injury.

He is expected to be back for spring training; there should be no residual effects from his injury that would limit him from a physical standpoint. While Quentin will surely be selected somewhere before the fourth or fifth rounds, fantasy owners are faced with a daunting question: Was his 2008 season a fluke, or is he for real?

We’ll take a look at his numbers from a sabermetric view, and also peek at his earlier record at Arizona and in the minors. After that, we should have a better understanding of where he should be selected and what to anticipate production-wise. All statistics used here are thanks to the guys over at Fangraphs.

Carlos Quentin’s player card can be seen here.

In the minors

He was picked 29th overall in the 2003 draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks after a hugely successful college career at Stanford (one of five finalists for the Golden Spikes Award). Quentin spent parts of 2006 and 2007 at the Diamondbacks' Triple-A affiliate, the Tucson Sidewinders.

Here are his minor league totals:

118 GP, 132 H in 433 AB (.305), 13 HR, 79 RBI, 42 doubles, 54 BB, 60 K, 5 SB

2006 (AAA): .377 OBP, .487 SLG, .865 OPS, .198 ISO, .316 BABIP
2007 (AAA): .395 OBP, .574 SLG, .969 OPS, .226 ISO, .371 BABIP

I placed his doubles total in italics because I am a believer in “gap power often turns into greater home run power” with younger players. He amassed 42 doubles in just 433 at-bats, while his SLG, OPS and ISO all continued to escalate. While his high BABIP (especially in ’07) indicates luck is involved, I still see his ISO numbers and doubles totals as indicators that Quentin was beginning to lock himself in as a legit power threat.

In the desert

Called up in 2006, Quentin seemed overmatched at times, with a 20.5 strikeout percentage (34 K in 57 GP). He struggled to find the consistency he had at Tucson, hitting .253. He did, however, make his hits count. In 166 at-bats, he tagged 13 doubles and nine homers, and racked up 32 RBI. Certainly, the Diamondbacks had to be pleased with this. Extrapolated over a 500-AB season, that would be approximately 27 HR and 96 RBI. Not bad at all.

But 2007 was a lost cause for Quentin, as he struggled to produce following offseason shoulder surgery on the Glenoid labrum (cartilage) of his left shoulder. It is possible that this is what caused him to struggle late in the 2006 season as well.

With a torn labrum, the shoulder becomes less stable, uncomfortable, or even painful. It may also lead to apprehension with certain movements. With right-handed batters, the follow-through of the swing will rotate the left shoulder rapidly outward (external rotation), placing stress on the anterior aspect of the shoulder, as well as the labrum. With the tear in his left shoulder, it is possible that he had discomfort or apprehension on the follow-through of his swing. This would not only decrease his ability to drive the ball with force, but also hinder his bat control.

He scuffled to a .214 average, and struck out at a 23.5 percent rate. With an OBP of .298 and an OPS of .647, the D-Backs made the decision to demote him to Triple-A. He was dealt to the Chicago White Sox in the offseason. The Diamondbacks' unwillingness to be patient with Quentin following shoulder surgery would prove quite a mistake.

White Sox steal a star

The White Sox, looking to get some youthful right-handed power in their outfield, were able to steal Quentin from the Diamondbacks for a song (first baseman Christopher Carter). Another year past shoulder surgery and apparently healthy, Quentin produced one of the best out-of-the-blue performances in recent fantasy baseball history.

April and May were torrid months for Quentin: 14 homers and 48 RBI. He slugged over .600 in April, July and August, and finished the year with a .288/.394/.571 line, with 36 homers and 100 RBI. He actually performed better after the All-Star break: He hit .277/.375/.525 before, and .312/.436/.681 after.

Injury strikes

On Sept. 5, Quentin injured his wrist after hitting it with his bat out of frustration after fouling off a pitch. He missed the remainder of the season, and took with him a major chunk of production from each fantasy team that had him. Sox manager Ozzie Guillen had a somewhat entertaining take on the injury, saying, "That's up to him, (whether or not to stop hitting the knob with his fist.) He's not my child. My job is winning games. My job is putting guys out there. I'm not going to tell the players what to do, what not to do. The only thing I tell them is don't go drink and drive. That's it." I outlined his injury at my DL Informer site.

2009 forecast

After his Herculean effort in 2008, it would be easy to take Quentin in the upper echelon of players. Is he first-round worthy? No. Second or third round? Absolutely. I have no worries in regard to his injury history, and he is going to be hitting in a prime spot in the White Sox batting order (likely third) with plenty of protection from Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye. A resurgence from Paul Konerko would be an added bonus.

Based on his undeniable power, low BABIP in 2008 (.280), and ability to draw walks at a decent rate, I foresee another outstanding season. He is yet another season past shoulder surgery, so this should be a non-issue at this point.

2009 Projections: .287/.379/.521/.900, 30 HR, 105 RBI




Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Neault 2008-12-05T05:03:15+00:00