The Hardball Times -- Corey Seidman http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-24T08:08:15+00:00 Why the Philles lost the World Series http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-the-philles-lost-the-world-series/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-the-philles-lost-the-world-series/#When:06:47:15
I was four years old when the Phils lost the 1993 World Series, so aside from the 2007 sweep at the hands of the Rockies, I hadn’t been through a competitive postseason series that saw my team come up short.

But, without mincing words, the Phillies didn’t deserve to win the 2009 World Series. They failed to capitalize on a Game One win on the road, and were blatantly outplayed over the next five games. When opposing a fantasy baseball team like the Yankees, there is no margin for error. If you have runners in scoring position with less than two outs against the highest scoring team in all of major league baseball, you better knock them in.

The Phillies failed to capitalize with runners on time and time again, while their counterparts seemed to thrive in high-pressure situations. The clinching Game Six was merely a microcosm of the entire series; the Phils went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position and left 10 men on-base, en route to a 7-3 loss.

After the NLDS and NLCS, I outlined the main reasons for the Phillies’ triumph. Several ingredients were: Ryan Howard’s transformation into a postseason monster, timely hitting at the bottom of the order, a dazzling performance by Pedro Martinez, the bullpen's abilityto bear down and strand runners in key situations, and, not to be forgotten, intelligent decision-making from Charlie Manuel.

Aside from Carlos Ruiz hitting .333 out of the eighth and ninth spots in the lineup, none of these factors carried over into the World Series.

Howard, who looked unstoppable before the week-long layoff in between rounds, went 4-for-23, with one homer, three RBIs, and a World Series record 13 strikeouts. In Games Two through Five, he was 1-for-14 with 10 strikeouts.

The bottom of the Phillies order was absolutely dreadful in the World Series. Pedro Feliz came up big in Game Four, going 3-for-4 with a game-tying homer in the eighth, but was 1-for-19 in the other five games. Ben Francisco, who played left field in two games in New York while Raul Ibanez played DH, went 0-for-6. Ruiz was the lone bright spot, leading all Phillies with a .333 batting average and .478 OBP.

Martinez, coming off of a magnificent start in the NLCS (seven innings, three hits, zero runs,) effectively shut down eight of the nine members of the Yankees lineup. All Yankees-not-named-Hideki Matsui were 7-for-35 against the righthander. Unfortunately, Matsui was 4-for-4, with two home runs, 5 RBIs and a walk vs. Pedro, skewing his numbers drastically. The Yankees may not have proved to be Pedro’s “daddy,” but Matsui, himself, certainly did.

The Phillies bullpen wasn’t hit exceptionally hard, but the unit didn’t live up to the standards it had set during the Divisional and Championship Series. Chan Ho Park, Ryan Madson, J.A. Happ and Scott Eyre combined to give up a mere two earned runs in 12.2 innings, but Brad Lidge, Chad Durbin, and Brett Myers struggled, giving up eight runs in 3.1 innings. Durbin couldn’t stop the Yankees either time he came in, and Lidge’s meltdown in Game Four dramatically changed the series, shifting an unquantifiable amount of momentum in the favor of the Yankees.

Manuel made several strange decisions, but, as I said with Joe Torre in the NLCS, it is much more difficult to push all the right buttons when you are constantly playing from behind. Manuel probably should not have left Martinez in during the seventh inning of Game Two, and, in my opinion, should have removed him after the second inning of Game Six. It was abundantly clear that Pedro had absolutely nothing in his second start. His fastball, which had reached as high as 92 mph previously, was hovering in the 84-86 range. Every Yankees player was hitting him hard, and if not for badly placed line-drive outs, the game could have gotten ugly much faster.

This year just wasn’t the Phillies year. Despite 93 regular season wins, and nine more in the playoffs, this was a flawed team. A lack of situational hitting and any sort of bench plagued the Phillies all season, and both aspects reared their ugly heads in the World Series. But more importantly, the season-long struggles of Lidge and Cole Hamels were once again prevalent at the most inopportune of times, and the performances of those two will surely be cited as the main reasons the Phillies fell short of repeating as World Champions.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Corey Seidman 2009-11-06T06:47:15+00:00 Why the Phillies will win the World Series http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-the-phillies-will-win-the-world-series/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-the-phillies-will-win-the-world-series/#When:05:59:15 Cliff Lee’s absolutely dominant performance in Game One.

The Phillies prized mid-season acquisition continued his unreal 2009 postseason by pitching a complete game in a 6-1, statement-making Phillies win. Unfortunately, he lost the shutout in the ninth inning due to an error by Jimmy Rollins, who continued the Phillies' streak of throwing into the opposing dugout rather than first base. All told, Lee allowed six hits and no walks, while striking out 10. He hasn’t allowed a free pass in three of four postseason starts, leading to a ridiculously low 0.60 WHIP. The most impressive aspect of Lee’s outing was his superiority over Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, who went a combined 0-for-8 with five strikeouts.

Best ever?


No writer should ever have to say this, but Cliff Lee’s performance in these playoffs has transcended words. His 0.54 ERA is the lowest ever recorded by a pitcher with 30 or more postseason innings. That’s right, the lowest in the history of this sport, which has been played since the presidency of Chester A. Arthur.

Looking ahead


Before the World Series started, I was ready to pick the Phillies to win in six games. Needless to say, that didn’t change after Game One. No, Lee will not be available to pitch again until at least Game Four, but that does not change the fact that the Phillies lineup came to play Wednesday night, scoring twice off Yankees ace CC Sabathia, twice off setup man Phil Hughes (both runs were inherited by AL K/9 leader David Robertson), and, for good measure, twice more off of Brian Bruney in the ninth inning.

Big hits came from all spots of the lineup, as Chase Utley homered twice, Ryan Howard doubled twice and drove in a run, Raul Ibanez had a huge two-out, two-run single, and Carlos Ruiz, Jimmy Rollins, and Shane Victorino all contributed to a few more insurance runs. Just like the previous two rounds, the offensive output was a complete team effort, showing that from top-to-bottom, this Phillies lineup is as good as it gets.

A.J. vs. Pedro


Traditional thinking would give the Yankees the advantage in Game Two, as they have their high-priced No. 2 starter, A.J. Burnett, on the mound, to face a “past-his-prime” Pedro Martinez. But Burnett does not have a pretty history against this specific Phillies lineup, and Martinez is coming off a seven inning, three hit performance that was easily his best outing with his new team.

Since 2006, Burnett is 1-2 with a 5.89 ERA in three starts against the Phils. He has allowed six homers in those three starts and hasn’t gotten out of the sixth inning in any of them. Rollins, Utley, Ruiz, and Jayson Werth have all homered once off Burnett, and Ryan Howard and likely-DH Matt Stairs have homered off the righthander twice.

Burnett has struggled against the Phillies because he is precisely the type of pitcher that this team is built to hit: a hard-throwing righty with bad control. This year, Burnett had the worst walk rate of his career since his first season, checking in at 4.22 walks per nine innings. Slightly more than half of his pitches—50.1 percent to be exact—were out of the strike zone, which doesn't bode well against a patient Phillies lineup that includes five players (Ruiz, Utley, Werth, Rollins, Ibanez) who swing at less than one quarter of the pitches they are thrown out of the zone.

Burnett, much like Pedro, will have to rely on the generosity of Game Two’s home plate umpire. If Burnett isn’t getting calls on borderline pitches, his effectiveness will drop significantly, because he is wild enough as it is. If Martinez can’t get calls on the corners, he, too, will assuredly struggle.

Movement and corner-painting are Pedro’s “bread and butter” at this point in his career, and the Yankees lineup will not give in—they’re even more patient than the Phillies. All Yankees regulars not named "Robinson Cano" are above league average at not swinging at pitches out of the zone.

Leaving the past


Much has been made about Pedro Martinez’s history vs. the Yankees, but I don’t see how the events of 2003 will impact his performance in Game Two. The numbers I’ve laid before you concerning Burnett have all been compiled in the last four seasons against a Phillies lineup that has remained the same, for the most part.

But this Yankees lineup is completely different from the one Pedro faced while pitching for the Red Sox, aside from Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada, two hitters that Martinez has held in check in his career. Posada has displayed a bit of power against Pedro, homering four times in 60 at-bats, but he is hitting just .183 off the right-hander. Jeter is hitting .256/.347/.395 off Pedro, with an OPS more than 100 points lower than his career number.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I am fully aware that Pedro Martinez circa 2003 possessed a different skill set than he currently does. Therefore, all numbers that he compiled against hitters like Jeter and Posada in that span of time should be thrown out the window. Jeter and Posada, in 2009, are better than Martinez, in 2009. If common sense tells you to throw out his outings against the Yankees in 2003, it also tells you to remove the batter-vs.-pitcher numbers Pedro put together during the prime of his career, when he just so happened to be one of the greatest pitchers to ever toe the rubber.

To me, the Game Two pitching matchup is even. If Pedro can maneuver in-and-out of the strike zone like he did against the Dodgers, he should out-pitch Burnett, who, despite his price tag, has never cemented himself as an elite pitcher.

Game Three


In Game Three, the advantage goes to Andy Pettitte, a pitcher the Phillies have only faced twice since 2006. In each outing, the lefty went seven innings and gave up four earned runs. The reason I see the Phillies struggling, however, is because Pettitte, the major-league record holder in pickoffs, will completely neutralize their running game, even with Jorge Posada behind the plate.

Pettitte’s splits are practically the same against righties (.270, one home run in 45 at-bats) and lefties (.271, one home run in 45 at-bats,) so it’s not as if the Phillies are facing a truly dominant southpaw. But after going up against two flamethrowers in Sabathia and Burnett, Pettitte could spell trouble for this lineup.

Tired of waiting


Cole Hamels has struggled all season and, quite frankly, I’m sick of making excuses for him. Early in the season, I blamed it on his absurdly high BABIP that would eventually regress. Then, I blamed it on the “Order of Operations” theory, which would explain his struggles as being the result of going “double-walk-homer-strikeout” rather than “homer-double-walk-strikeout.”

None of his peripherals decreased in 2009, which is a good sign, but last year’s World Series MVP just has not shown any ability whatsoever to recapture the magic he once had. More importantly, Hamels hasn’t been able to pitch effectively as a frontrunner. In all three of his prior postseason starts, he’s been handed a big lead and failed to hold his opponents down. If he pitches well against the Yankees, it will be an example of his true talent coming out at the right time.

But don’t bank on it.

No more bullpen talk


In my opinion, the one proven fact of the 2009 playoffs has been that bullpen-talk is meaningless. Pitchers who toss fewer than 50 or 60 innings simply cannot be viewed as “shutdown” guys. Rafael Betancourt, Huston Street, Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong Chih-Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Phil Hughes, and David Robertson were all touted as great relievers, coming off of strong regular seasons. But all have fallen victim to the Phillies multifaceted offense.

The reason for this? Well, it’s all about the situation. During the regular season, all of these men were used primarily in leads. Facing the Orioles or Padres with nobody on and nobody out in the eighth inning of a game in mid-July is much different than coming in with the bases loaded and one out in September. Therefore, it doesn’t matter which team may have a better bullpen on paper. Don’t believe me? Look at Brad Lidge’s 2009 season, then his 2009 postseason.

The situation will always dictate a reliever's level of effectiveness.


The impact of Game One


The Phillies have now won the opening games of their last six playoff series—every round in 2008, and now every round in 2009. The road gets easier from here, as the Phillies now have the same number of home-games remaining as the Yankees do, and> hold a 1-0 advantage.

Eleven of the past 12 Game One winners have gone on to win the World Series, and since 1995, teams that win Game One on the road are 4-1.

It sure is nice building an early lead, especially when home-cooking is on the horizon.

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To put it bluntly, the battle for the National League championship pitted a varsity team against a K-8 after-school baseball program. The Phillies focused, played instinctively, and treated these semi-finals as if they were just another collection of games in mid-June. The Dodgers pressed, strayed away from throwing strikes in hitters' counts, and played “not to lose.”

I don’t mean to disrespect the 2009 Los Angeles Dodgers, for they did beat the Phillies in four of seven regular season meetings en route to the National League’s best record. They have a good nucleus of young talent (Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Clayton Kershaw) that they hope will reach their peak at the same time.

But they also have young guys who appear to be declining, such as Russell Martin (the new Jason Kendall) and Chad Billingsley, as well as the rapidly aging Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal, who went 8-for-40 in the NLCS. Furcal was supposed to be the Dodgers' igniter, yet he failed to score a run in the series. Ramirez was supposed to be the middle-of-the-order run-producer extraordinaire, but he didn’t drive in a single run after the fifth inning of Game One.

Coming into the NLCS, the Phillies appeared to have an advantage on the Dodgers, but the gap between the teams wasn’t as gigantic as these five games showed. The Phils had the more powerful offense, reliable defense and superior starting pitching, but the Dodgers held a massive edge in the bullpen, where they sported the likes of 2009 unhittables Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill and Hong Chih-Kuo.

Against a left-handed-heavy Phillies lineup, devastating lefties Sherrill and Kuo were supposed to thrive. The Dodgers held a distinct advantage on the bench, too, which supported the rear ends of Jim Thome, Mark Loretta, Juan Pierre and Orlando Hudson.

Suffice it to say, the Phillies absolutely pounded the oft-praised Dodgers bullpen, scoring 14 runs on 21 hits off the unit in 21 innings, while also drawing 14 huge walks. In addition to displaying a fondness for multiples of seven against LA’s relief corps, the Phillies played their brand of baseball against the Dodgers pen. They were extremely patient, worked deep counts, and executed with runners in scoring position. For five games, the entire Dodgers pitching staff looked scared and outmatched by this dynamic Philadelphia offense.

Two single innings represented the Dodgers' fear of failure in this series: the ninth inning of Game Four and the first inning of Game Five. In the final frame of Game Four, Broxton pitched around his old nemesis Matt Stairs with one out and the bases empty, walking him on four pitches. This took Broxton out of his element: He hit Carlos Ruiz one pitch later, and eventually surrendered a game-winning two-run double to Jimmy Rollins that will forever be etched in the minds of Philly faithful.

The very next time the Dodgers sent out a pitcher and eight fielders, Vicente Padilla easily got past Rollins and Shane Victorino, but then got behind in the count to Chase Utley and refused to give in. Padilla walked Utley, then threw four pitches way out of the zone to Ryan Howard due to fear that the “The Big Piece” would once again carve his initials into the major league postseason record book.

Much like Broxton with Stairs, Padilla didn’t trust his stuff enough, and paid the price when Jayson Werth blasted a three-run homer that set the tone in the Phillies' clincher.

All the blame cannot be placed on the Dodgers starting rotation or bullpen, however, because it was up to the Phillies to execute, which they did, just about every time. Sure, the Dodgers bullpen was critically acclaimed throughout the season, but if they pitched only against the Phillies, you better believe those ERAs, FIPs, and BB/K/HR rates would be vastly different. Throwing a fastball by Chase Headley at Petco Park in mid-August is much different than attempting to get one past Chase Utley at Citizens Bank Park in October.

In between the Phillies' ridiculous offensive output and the Dodgers' pitching woes came a bunch of head-scratchers from Joe Torre that only helped the Phils. For no logical reason, Torre refused to play second baseman Orlando Hudson. I understand that Ronnie Belliard had a high slugging percentage and a number of timely hits after coming to the Dodgers from the Nationals on Aug. 30, but his hot streak had been over for some time, and the minimal offensive advantage that Torre feels Belliard provides is undeniably negated by his inferior fielding. Hudson’s legs, switch-hitting and defense (even after all the injuries) are still more threatening than what Belliard provides in the two-hole, seven-hole, or wherever else Torre felt he needed to bat his undeserved starter.

Another baffling decision was not pinch-hitting Thome with the bases loaded in the eighth inning of a 9-4 Phillies lead in Game Five. Torre elected to let Martin strike out with one away, and then let Casey “the Grinder/Battler/insert stupid analyst cliché here” Blake ground out for the 9,000th time this series. All the while, Thome waited in the on-deck circle. I fail to see the logic in this. Both Martin and Blake struggled in the series, and both are much worse candidates to face Ryan Madson than Thome. Even if the presence of Thome were to force Charlie Manuel to counter with Scott Eyre, isn’t Thome vs. Eyre a more favorable matchup for LA than Martin/Blake vs. Madson?

In contrast, Manuel pulled all the right strings and didn’t worry about the feelings of his players. Cole Hamels couldn’t hold big leads in Games One or Five, a la Adam Eaton, and Manuel didn’t let last year’s NLCS and World Series MVP stick around to work through it. Hamels’ effectiveness was nowhere to be found, and Manuel played the “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” card, reaping the benefits both times. In Torre’s defense, managing is much more difficult and subject to scrutiny when you’re playing from behind in 34 out of 45 innings.

A key factor in this series was the ability of the Phillies to put up crooked numbers. The Phils scored in 16 different half-innings over five games, and scored two runs or more in 11 of them. Meanwhile, the Dodgers scored more than one run in an inning only four times throughout the series. Why, you may ask? Because the Dodgers pitchers out-walked the Phillies 23-to-12. Six walks a game isn’t going to get it done against the Phillies—this lineup is too deadly to dilly-dally with.

So many different Phillies stepped up in this series. Howard has had one of the most impressive postseasons in major league history, tallying an RBI in a ML-record eight consecutive playoff games. Rollins’ game-winning two-run double in Game Four was the most substantial swing of momentum in the series. Jayson Werth hit three mammoth home runs in the NLCS to set the Phillies' all-time record for playoff homers, with seven. Utley reached base in every game—what else is new? He now holds the record for most consecutive playoff games reaching base safely, with 25. Victorino went 7-for-19 with a double, triple, three homers, six RBI and four runs scored. Ruiz, the Phillies' very own Mr. October, started the scoring in Game One with a three-run big fly off Kershaw, and reached base in 11 of 19 plate appearances!

On the mound, Cliff Lee was brilliant once again, tossing eight scoreless innings, with 10 strikeouts and no walks. Through two rounds, he has now allowed a mere two runs in 24.1 innings pitched. Pedro Martinez dazzled in Game Two, giving up two hits in seven shutout innings. Brad Lidge, after allowing nearly two baserunners per inning in the regular season, saw only two Dodgers reach base in three outings. And not to be overlooked is the stellar performance of Chad Durbin, a 2008 blessing and 2009 disappointment, who came in during four different situations (three of which were crucial) and refused to let a Dodger reach base.

What will transpire in the World Series is anyone’s guess. Predictions in sports are like TVs in the backseat’s head-rest—they’re useless. The bullpens of the Rockies and Dodgers were each labeled as reasons for the Phillies' impending demise, yet here we are, waiting one long week for the World Series. The Phillies one-through-eight hitters have disposed of every “great” reliever they’ve faced, and their pitchers have made Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Ramirez, Furcal and Kemp all look like different forms of Eric Bruntlett.

By the time the World Series returns to Philadelphia, the Phillies will have held baseball’s crown for more than one calendar year. It doesn’t matter who or what has stood in their way during the title defense; every attempt at dethroning the Phils has been futile. It’s as if this team listens to the traffic report on the radio and hears about four-car pileups and overturned tractor trailers, but when they actually get there, the streets are clear. What’s supposed to stop them now, a fantasy baseball team led by Joe Girardi with a $210 million payroll?

I’ll believe it when I see it.

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But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Before even thinking about another championship, the Phillies will have to move past the Los Angeles Dodgers, their NLCS foe for the second consecutive year.

In the 2008 postseason, the Phillies used back-to-back home wins to take a commanding 2-0 series lead over the Dodgers, before dropping Game Three to Hiroki Kuroda in L.A. Kuroda’s involvement in this NLCS is key, because the righthander was 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in last year’s playoffs and has killed the Phillies during his brief two-year career in America.

A pitcher that the Phillies once had a chance to sign, Kuroda has made them pay in four career starts (one in the playoffs), going 2-0 with a 1.44 ERA, allowing only four runs over 25 innings pitched, while striking out 20. His 0.68 WHIP against the Phillies is ridiculous, and every Phillies fan is hoping that the bulging disk in his neck will sideline him for one more week. Joe Torre told the Los Angeles Times on Tuesday that a decision concerning Kuroda’s status for the NLCS would be coming the following day.

After losing to Kuroda in the ’08 NLCS, the Phillies used the late-inning heroics of Shane Victorino and Matt Stairs, who each hit two-run homers off Dodger relievers in a memorable eighth inning of Game Four, in order to capture the momentum. Two days later, Cole Hamels pitched brilliantly and the Phillies clinched the NLCS.

But this time around, the Dodgers bullpen is a force to be reckoned with. George Sherrill, the best trade deadline acquisition not named Cliff Lee or Matt Holliday, is just what the Dodgers need in the late innings of this series—a devastating situational lefty. Left-handed hitters were 10-for-78 off Sherrill in ’09, with only two extra-base hits (both doubles) and a pathetic .340 OPS.

After joining the Dodgers, Sherrill allowed only two runs over 27.2 innings and became the eighth-inning gluestick for closer Jonathan Broxton. A series with the left-handed-heavy Phillies is exactly why the Dodgers went out and traded for Sherrill in late July. Kudos to Ned Colletti.

The Phillies lineup is 2-for-9 off Sherrill, with Matt Stairs being the only batter to face him more than once. Only Stairs and Raul Ibanez have gotten hits off the dominant lefty, while Chase Utley is 0-for-1 with a strikeout and Ryan Howard has never faced him.

The bullpen is obviously L.A.’s strongest asset, as Sherrill isn’t even the only tough southpaw. Hong-Chih Kuo has held the Phillies to 5-for-30 lifetime and has never allowed an extra-base hit. The fact that Broxton represents the Phils' best chance of late hits in this series is scary.

The absolute key to this series will be the score of the games entering the seventh inning. If the Dodgers have as much as a two-run lead, the game could very well be over. Don’t expect the late-inning drama that the Phillies provided in the NLDS or last year’s NLCS, because this Dodgers bullpen is too stacked for that.

Luckily for the Phils, the Dodgers don’t really offer in much in terms of starting pitching. If Kuroda is unable to go, their three-man rotation will include Clayton Kershaw, Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla. Honestly, if you would have told me in 2003 that Wolf and Padilla (two disappointing former Phillies) would be standing in the way of a second straight World Series berth for the Phils, I would have laughed in your face and cried myself to sleep wondering if I’d ever witness a championship for my beloved team. Don’t judge me, it was an exaggeration. Maybe.

The Phillies have always slapped Kershaw around—he's 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA in his career against them, with 21 hits and 11 walks allowed in 20 innings. Like just about any major league pitcher, though, Kershaw has fanned quite a few Phillies in his time—23 to be exact. While the young lefty is clearly the most talented of the Dodger starters, this Phillies' lineup has never seemed to care.

Wolf had two starts against the Phils this season, one good and one bad. Control has always been the X-factor for the former Phillie, and you better believe he will be tested by an extremely patient lineup.

Padilla defines the word “enigma,” and my prediction is that he will follow up his tremendous start against the Cardinals with a stinker against the Phillies. In one start against the Phils, he allowed seven runs and two homers in six innings pitched. I can tell you firsthand that this is a guy who has never put it together for a long enough time to be considered reliable. I watched him for years, and every time he seemed to realize his potential and toss a gem, he followed it up with a start that reminded us all just who he is. For every fist-pump Padilla generates, two eye-rolls and a shake of the head are bound to follow.

For the Phillies, Cole Hamels is the key to the pitching staff. He will likely start Game One, with either Pedro Martinez or Joe Blanton following in Game Two, and Cliff Lee after that. Over six starts, Hamels is 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA against the Dodgers in his career. This season, Hamels was brilliant against L.A., allowing only one earned run in 16 innings, while allowing 13 total baserunners and striking out 14.

Despite an up-and-down ’09 season, Hamels should fare well in this series. He has a history of stifling the boys in blue, and that should continue at spacious Dodger Stadium. The keys with Hamels are always the establishment of his fastball in the first three innings and his pitch count. In addition to very bad luck (.325 BABIP), much of the reason for his tumultuous season could be attributed to his newfound inability to put hitters away. After getting ahead in counts, Hamels would allow foul ball after foul ball, increasing his pitch count and decreasing his ability to sneak something by the opposition.

The Phillies' offensive X-factors will be Jimmy Rollins and Jayson Werth. As Rollins showed in the ninth inning of Games Three and Four, any time he can get on base with less than two outs, the Phillies do great things. Rollins got on base to begin an inning 80 times this season, and scored 54 runs. This means that he scores 70 percent of the time when he gets on to start an inning! Shane Victorino is on one of his scorching streaks right now, and with the power that comes after him, Rollins could get the Phillies rolling in this series if he could just get on base his first time up.

Werth is a key to the NLCS because Torre has made it clear that he won’t hesitate to give Howard the same treatment he gave Albert Pujols this year—plenty of intentional walks. If this happens, Werth should have a great series with two lefties on the mound in Kershaw and Wolf. Werth is to left-handed pitching what Ryan Howard is to right-handed pitching—death. Since 2007, Werth is hitting .319/.421/.635/1.056 off lefties, with 35 homers in 392 at-bats. If all pitchers were lefties, Werth would be Pujols, Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, you pick a legend.

The Dodgers' success will hinge on whether or not Manny Ramirez can be superhuman like he was in the ‘08 NLCS, and if Andre Ethier can hit the lefties that the Phillies will be throwing at him. In 165 at-bats against lefties during the regular season, Ethier hit .194/.283/.345 with six homers. He is 3-for-16 lifetime off Hamels and 0-for-3 against Lee, but he has had success off the Phillies' situational lefty, Scott Eyre, going 3-for-4 with a double and a homer.

The Phillies will win this series because Rollins will ignite the offense and the team will get to the Dodgers' starters early enough to make their dynamic bullpen irrelevant. I see the series going six games, with the Phillies losing one of Hamels’ or Lee’s starts, as well as Game Three, with Martinez or Blanton on the mound.

This Dodgers team is improved from last season, but it still lacks the power the Phillies possess. Sure, L.A. had the highest batting average and on-base percentage in the National League, but the command of Lee (1.67 BB/9) and Hamels (2 BB/9) will negate a patient Dodgers lineup.

If Kuo, Sherrill and Broxton could each be reincarnated as starting pitchers before first pitch Thursday night, the Dodgers would have a chance. But unfortunately for the “passionate” fans out west, that ain’t happenin’.

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For starters, the starting pitching of the Phillies is better prepared to face a tough Rockies lineup in two hitter-friendly parks. By giving Cole Hamels the nod in Game One, the Phillies will allow Cliff Lee, an ace, to pitch against the Rockies' No. 2 or No. 3 starter. This will give the Phillies a clear advantage in Game Two or Three, and when considering the fact that Hamels and Jimenez are both low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 types themselves, it’s hard to give the Rockies the advantage in Game One at Citizens Bank Park. Despite Hamels’ seemingly year-long struggles, the lefty had his best month of the season in September, compiling a 3.32 ERA with 40 strikeouts in 43.1 innings and a .238 opponents batting average.

Assuming Lee faces Aaron Cook in Game Two, the Game Three pitching matchup becomes interesting. The reigning champs have to decide among Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ and Pedro Martinez. With Charlie Manuel saying that Happ would be able to pitch in relief during the first two games and still start Game Four, it appears that Blanton will get the call.

For the Rockies, the clear choice for Game Three would be the white-hot Jorge de la Rosa, but he is battling a tight left groin that may, at best, make him less effective, and at worst, sideline him for the NLDS. The best bet for the Rockies would be to start Jason Marquis instead.

De la Rosa was terrible against the Phillies in two outings this season, going 0-2 with an 11.17 ERA, a .364 opponents batting average, and a WHIP just under 2.00. In contrast, Marquis fared well in his lone start against the Phillies in 2009, allowing only two runs over seven innings. Obviously, three total starts between the two pitchers is a very small sample size, but the difference in production is largely due to the fact that the Phillies struggle more against sinkerballers than flame-throwers. A pitcher notorious for inducing ground balls, Marquis had the best year of his career in that department, giving up grounders 55.6 percent of the time, for a ridiculously effective 2.03 ground ball/fly ball ratio. Marquis was third among major league pitchers in both categories, behind Joel Pineiro and Derek Lowe.

The Rockies come into the series with the better bullpen, which features Huston Street (35 saves, two blown saves), Rafael Betancourt, who has been nearly unhittable since donning a Rockies uniform, and enigmas like Franklin Morales and recently acquired Jose Contreras. The Phillies pen is in shambles, as Chan Ho Park and J.C. Romero are likely out for the season, Brett Myers and Scott Eyre are being handled with kid gloves due to previous injuries, and the closer situation is in flux.

This may sound crazy, given that Brad Lidge has blown more saves this season than you can count on both hands, but he remains the best option to close due to the team’s many injuries to late-inning relievers. Ryan Madson needs to be the glue in the eighth inning so that the entire bullpen isn’t topsy-turvy, and unless Madson can work quickly in his first inning of work, Lidge would be the best bet for the ninth frame.

When comparing the lineups of the two teams, the Phillies are favored slightly. The Phils and Rockies were first and second, respectively, in the NL in runs scored, home runs and slugging percentage, proving that both are multi-faceted, dynamic offensive teams. The Rockies led in OPS.

While the Phillies one-through-eight hitters have seldom strayed from their position in the order, the Rockies lineup has changed several times. The emergence of Carlos Gonzalez as a solid hitter (.320, 12 homers in the second half) gives them the good problem of having four quality outfielders in Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Brad Hawpe and Seth Smith. It will be interesting to see who receives at-bats.

Unlike in 2007, when they quite simply experienced a power outage at the most inopportune time, the Phillies are a battle-tested team much better prepared to face Colorado pitching. It’s a bit ironic that the Phillies were sapped of their power in that series, because so was Coors Field for a brief moment in Game Three of the ’07 NLDS.

This time around, the Phils have an offensive identity. They won’t hesitate to force the oft-erratic Jimenez to throw a lot of pitches, because outside of Jimmy Rollins, Raul Ibanez and Pedro Feliz, this is an extremely patient lineup. Rollins and Shane Victorino should each have big series, which will serve as the main key to the Phillies success. The power from the three-through-six hitters is so overwhelming and consistent that, so long as the table-setters do their job, the Phils shouldn’t have a problem putting up a fair share of crooked numbers.

With that said, the Rockies offense is not going to lie down and die. Troy Tulowitzki is the key to the Colorado lineup, and it isn’t outside of the realm of possibility that he and Phillies-killer Todd Helton could carry the offense in a short series. But on paper: advantage Phillies.

Defensively, the advantage also goes to the Phillies, who, thanks to a fine defensive season from Ryan Howard and unexpected excellence from Ibanez in left field, are now solid at every position. They committed 76 errors, second least in the majors (the Pirates were better). In addition, the Phillies were fourth in the NL with a 28.2 UZR, and when comparing only the projected starting lineups of both defenses in this series, the Phillies have a 33.8 to -14.8 advantage.

These advantages obviously do not mean as much in a short, five-game series as they would throughout a marathon season, but they still display clear Philadelphia superiority in three out of four facets.

When the first pitch is thrown Wednesday at 2:37 p.m. and all of the stats reset, Phillies-Rockies Part II will be an entertaining match-up between the two NL playoff teams that are actually riding a bit of momentum. But this time, the Phillies feature a playoff-tested nucleus that has “been there before” (that still feels so weird to say) and the Rockies are not the buzz saw they were in 2007.

Sequels often fail to live up to the standards set by the original. But for Phillies fans, this one will have a much happier ending.

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