http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-17T08:57:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-sophomore-studs-and-duds/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-sophomore-studs-and-duds/#When:05:04:15 Oliver’s projections to see what kind of strides, or step-backs, can be expected in 2011.

(With so many intriguing players to sift through, we’ll be doing this in two parts, with the criteria being only those players who saw at least 300 plate appearances last season. Sorry Carlos Santana followers, you’ll have to purchase the THT Forecasts to read the praise Oliver heaps on the young backstop.)

Mike Stanton

2009 line: .255 AVG/76 R/28 HR/92 RBI/3 SB (551 PAs @ AA/A+)
2010 line: .259 AVG/45 R/22 HR/59 RBI/5 SB (396 PAs)
2011 Oliver projection: .283 AVG/90 R/46 HR/120 RBI/5 SB (574 PAs)

Oliver thinks ... Stanton is destined for fantasy superstardom this year. Coming in as the second-ranked outfielder, Oliver projects a home run title, and an RBI total surpassed by only the great Albert Pujols. Most interestingly, the system foresees a significant increase in batting average, the one thing that figured to stunt Stanton's growth into an elite fantasy asset.

I think ... Oliver is one optimistic S.O.B.—not necessarily about Stanton's power potential, although I do think 46 home runs and 120 RBIs represent an absolute ceiling more than a realistic expectation. The .283 average is where I think the system gets a little hyperbolic. In almost 1,200 minor league at-bats, Stanton never hit above .300 in a full season and was a career .274 hitter. His strikeout rate was the main culprit, sitting at a bloated 31 percent. It was an even more elevated 34.3 percent last season—a number that ranked as the fifth-highest mark in the league, and placed him in the company of notorious average-killers Mark Reynolds, Jack Cust, Adam Dunn and Russell Branyan. Also similar to those players, Stanton made contact on 70 percent or less of the pitches he swung at, a feat only 10 hitters achieved in 2010.

One thing that could lead to a higher average than his profile indicates is his ability to draw a walk. His bases on balls percentage sat above 11 percent in the minors, but was only 8.6 last year. So based on that history, typical age progression, and his restraint in chasing bad pitches—his O-Swing percentage was close to the league average last year—it's reasonable to assume Stanton will draw walks at a higher clip in his second season, which inevitably will lead to better pitches to hit, and, perhaps, the rise in batting average Oliver projects.

And if that happens, if he approaches an average of .280, there's little doubt Stanton finishes as a top five outfielder. And if the 2010 average is replicated, well, he'll still be a top 20 player at the position. In other words, you're either getting good, or great, if you pay for Stanton's services on draft day.

Buster Posey

2009 line: .325 AVG/84 R/18 HR/80 RBI/6 SB (497 PAs @ AAA/A+)
2010 line: .305 AVG/58 R/18 HR/67 RBI/0 SB (443 PAs)
2011 Oliver projection: .299 AVG/74 R/20 HR/81 RBI/1 SB (568 PAs)

Oliver thinks ... the average is totally legit, but the power will level off some, preventing him from seriously challenging Joe Mauer's status as fantasy's top catcher. The system does think he'll give Brian McCann a run for his money though.

I Think ... Oliver and I are on the same page when it comes to Posey. Last year's rookie of the year hit 18 homers in 406 at-bats (22.5 AB/HR), which surprised many considering he totaled just 11 in 303 career Triple-A at-bats (27.5 AB/HR). Oliver thinks he'll split the difference between the two totals, projecting a homer every 25.1 at-bats. That seems likely given the low volume of fly balls Posey hits (33 percent) and his profile as a high average, line-drive hitter.

Speaking of the average, he was a career .333 hitter in the minors, and he registered a 0.84 BB/K ratio. In his first major league go-around, he actually struck out less, but he also walked considerably less, leading to a 0.55 BB/K. With more experience that ratio is sure to improve, and Oliver agrees, forecasting a 0.65 BB/K.

Looking at his linear pitch type values on Fangraphs, Posey was one of the best hitters in the league against curveballs and change-ups, and he was a plus hitter against fastballs as well. The slider seemed to be the only pitch with which he struggled, a fact pitchers repeatedly tried to exploit—he saw the 13th-highest percentage of sliders among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances. That strategy didn’t exactly work, further confirming Posey as a mature, bust-proof sophomore slugger. If you're looking for a comp, think Billy Butler with catcher eligibility.

Jason Heyward

2009 line: .323 AVG/69 R/17 HR/63 RBI/10 SB (422 PAs @ AAA/AA/A+)
2010 line: .277 AVG/83 R/18 HR/72 RBI/11 SB (520 PAs)
2011 Oliver projection: .297 AVG/77 R/22 HR/78 RBI/8 SB (538 PAs)

Oliver thinks ... the batting average will approach .300, but the counting stats will hang around last year's totals, making Heyward a top 25 outfielder in the class of Nick Markakis, Hunter Pence and Torii Hunter.

I think ... based on the tangible (i.e., his past numbers), the projections seem perfectly reasonable, but I also think Oliver forgot Heyward is supposed to be a transcendent, once-in-a-generation superstar (and that he dealt with a lingering, and power-hindering, thumb injury a good portion of his rookie year).

While the 5x5 numbers don't blow you out of the water, Heyward demonstrated total command of the strike zone last year, registering a 14.6 walk percentage and ranking among the most restrained hitters in terms of swing percentage on balls outside the zone. According to his pitch-type values, he also recorded a positive number against the four pitches he saw most frequently, another indication of Heyward's advanced ability at the plate.

The two things that held his numbers down somewhat were a strikeout rate approaching 25 percent and a 27.2 flyball percentage. Considering his outstanding plate discipline and ability to successfully hit all pitches, along with his 15.7 strikeout percentage in the minors, it's fairly safe to predict a drop in strikeouts in his sophomore year (Oliver projects 19.4 percent). That should considerably help his average creep up near .300, and possibly beyond, depending on how much improvement he makes.

As for the flyball percentage, it ranked as the ninth-lowest mark in the league last year, with only Derek Jeter, Elvis Andrus, Skip Shumaker, Juan Pierre, Michael Bourn, Ichiro Suzuki, Nyjer Morgan and Ryan Theriot elevating a smaller percentage of balls into the air. Those eight guys combined for a grand total of 26 homers, so it's amazing, really, that Heyward was able to park 18 balls while keeping such company. If he can raise his flyball percentage into the 30-35 range, which is still below league average, 25 homers should be guaranteed, especially considering the natural power progression expected of a man Heyward's size.

So while the projection may suggest taking a somewhat cautious approach on draft day, I suggest being ultra-aggressive if you want to play with Heyward this year—all he needs are a few minor tweaks to become the fantasy phenom everyone's predicted.

Ike Davis

2009 line: .298 AVG/58 R/20 HR/71 RBI/0 SB (488 PAs @ AA/A+)
2010 line: .264 AVG/73 R/19 HR/71 RBI/3 SB (523 PAs)
2011 Oliver projection: .270 AVG/71 R/21 HR/80 RBI/1 SB (569 PAs)

Oliver thinks ... if Davis were an outfielder, he'd be worth starting in 12-team leagues. He's not, of course, which means his .270/20/80 line makes him the 25th ranked first baseman. Useful as a corner infielder, but not someone for whom to hold high fantasy expectations.

I think ... Davis could see more growth than the system projects. His strikeout percentage was definitely too high at 26.4, which helped depress his batting average, but a walk rate of 12.0 allowed him to maintain an on-base percentage of over .350, making the inflated strikeout rate easier to stomach.

He struggled at the plate during the middle of the season, but regained his form over the last two months, compiling a .294 average and a walk percentage of 15.8, one of the highest percentages in the league over that span. That’s a good indication he made the necessary adjustments to combat what opposing pitchers were doing, always a positive sign in a young hitter. Unfortunately, his power never spiked, and his ISO of .176 ranked 17th at the first base position. And that's the rub— he has the potential to be a high average/walk guy, but without sufficient power, he’ll remain a backup in 12-team leagues.

An oddity I found while digesting the numbers: Davis saw only 39.4 percent of his pitches in the strike zone, the third-lowest percentage in the league. One reason could be his ineffectiveness against breaking pitches. Looking at his linear pitch type weights, Davis registered a negative value on breaking pitches and a plus value on fastballs, which was the major reason he saw the seventh-lowest percentage of fastballs, and the fourth-highest percentage of curveballs among qualified hitters. A steady diet of breaking stuff, obviously, leads to fewer strikes in the zone compared to a high volume of fastballs and change-ups.

As for the fantasy relevance, improvement in his ability to handle breaking pitches, coupled with his already outstanding eye, could force pitchers to feed him more strikes, which, in turn, could lead to better pitches to drive. And that may just help him go from a 20-homer threat to a potential 30-homer guy. Just a theory, but worth looking into if you’re searching for a reason to draft Davis as a sleeper candidate.

Starlin Castro

2009 line: .299 AVG/56 R/3 HR/49 RBI/28 SB (509 PAs @ AA/A+)
2010 line: .300 AVG/53 R/3 HR/41 RBI/10 SB (506 PAs)
2011 Oliver projection: .293 AVG/66 R/5 HR/52 RBI/13 SB (551 PAs)

Oliver thinks ... at a position shallower than the entire cast of The Real Housewives of Orange County combined, Castro is advanced enough to be your regular SS, although don't expect much more than he offered in 2010.

I think ... Oliver's right in projecting only moderate growth, but I say dream big. Outside of the top three (Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes), there's not a shortstop on the board that I feel comfortable drafting in the first 10 rounds. So why not wait, and then reach a round or two early for the top five potential of Castro?

The wunderkind feasted on lefties last year (.339 average) and was solid against righties (.286), and while his three home runs don't indicate much pop, he actually registered a .108 ISO to go along with his .300 average. I bring that up because only Tulowitzki, Ramirez, Rafael Furcal and Castro were able to produce an ISO above 1.00 and an average of .300 or better at the shortstop position in 2010. Throw out homers, and Castro's 36 extra-base hits were the fifth-best total at the position, and he did it in just 463 at-bats, 100 fewer than the next closest guy above him.

Some will point to his fortuitous .346 BABIP and predict a batting average decline, but as a speedy player with a GB% over 50, a higher than normal BABIP is to be expected, as evidenced by the .356 career mark of both Ichiro Suzuki and Derek Jeter.

Ultimately, what will determine whether Castro becomes an elite shortstop or simply middle infield filler will be his ability to turn his raw speed into stolen base production. When he first got the call to the bigs, Castro was apprehensive on the base paths, attempting just three steals in 58 games before the All-Star break. He became more aggressive down the stretch, though, swiping nine bases on 15 attempts in 67 games after the break. In his only full season in the minors, Castro had 28 steals in 127 games, so we know he has the speed to get it done; he just needs to learn the nuances behind the art. With more experience, that will come, making 20 stolen bases very attainable.

In case you're wondering, only five players in the majors had 20 or more steals and a .300 average last season: Carl Crawford, Ichiro Suzuki, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez and Shin-Soo Choo.

Honorable mention:

Tyler Colvin

2009 line: .286 AVG/69 R/15 HR/60 RBI/8 SB (459 PAs @ AA/A+)
2010 line: .254 AVG/60 R/20 HR/56 RBI/6 SB (394 PAs)
2011 Oliver projection: .246 AVG/58 R/16 HR/61 RBI/5 SB (498 PAs)

Even if you extrapolate Colvin's numbers out to THT Forecast for plate appearances (609), Oliver doesn't think Colvin will amount to anything other than a spare outfield part in 12-team leagues. That's mostly because of an average expected to hang around .250. In nearly 2,000 minor league plate-appearances, none above Double-A, Colvin posted a 0.30 BB/K ratio, the exact ratio he had in his rookie season. That low a number doesn't usually equate to a high average, and neither does his 71.9 percent contact rate.

The power is legitimate, though, probably more so than Oliver projects. Colvin registered a .246 ISO last season, and it was .225 during his final year in Double-A, but the system thinks he'll be good for only a .176 mark this year. He'll be battling with Kosuke Fukudome for playing time, but NL-only leaguers need to be on high alert, and Colvin could be mixed-league worthy if he can fine-tune his batting eye.

Jose Tabata

2009 line: .293 AVG/52 R/5 HR/35 RBI/11 SB (402 PAs @ AAA/AA)
2010 line: .299 AVG/61 R/4 HR/35 RBI/19 SB (441 PAs)
2011 Oliver projection: .291 AVG/76 R/9 HR/59 RBI/22 SB (603 PAs)

Upon being called up in June, the 20-something-year-old prospect had 29 extra-base hits in barely 400 at-bats, slightly bettered his .297 career minor league average, and stole 19 bags, which, if combined with his Triple-A numbers, totaled 44 steals in 155 games in 2010.

Oliver envisions the average and slight pop being maintained, but that Tabata's not quite the elite base-stealer last season suggested he is. The numbers seem to back that up. His speed score of 6.4 wasn't overly impressive, and neither was his 73 percent success rate on stolen bases—of the 19 players who stole 30 or more bases last season, only three had success rates lower 73 percent. It wasn't much higher in the minors (75 percent), so perhaps Oliver is on to something. Either way, as a fourth fantasy outfielder, Tabata won't kill you in any category, and looks to be a plus producer in at least two.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Ryan 2011-02-15T05:04:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-joining-the-elite/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-joining-the-elite/#When:10:59:15
In 2009, only nine pitchers managed to do both, but last year, the year of the pitcher, 14 guys qualified. Here’s a look at that list (among starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings):

Tim Lincecum
Jon Lester
Yovani Gallardo
Jonathan Sanchez
Francisco Liriano
Jered Weaver
Clayton Kershaw
Mat Latos
Josh Johnson
Cole Hamels
Justin Verlander
Colby Lewis
Ryan Dempster
Ubaldo Jimenez

It’s basically a who’s who of elite fantasy pitchers, although I am surprised to see Dempster’s name in the group. Only two starters topped the 8.5 K/9 mark and failed to produce an ERA under 4.00—Brandon Morrow, who actually led all starters with 10.9 K/9, and Bud Norris, both of whom we’ll soon discuss.

At first I found it a little weird that 14 of 16 pitchers with a K/9 over 8.5 also had sub-4.00 ERAs, but upon further thought, not so much. High strikeout guys typically do one of two things: either they dial back their stuff to gain more control, and in the process suffer reduced strikeout rates, or they fail to consistently harness/control their arsenal, and are sent to the bullpen. What we’re searching for in this week’s edition of Twisting Oliver, is that rare pitcher who can make the necessary adjustments without losing what makes him special—the ability to miss multitudes of bats.

What follow is a group of pitchers that Oliver thinks are 2011 contenders to join the elite, and reach the pre-determined benchmarks for ERA and K/9.

Brandon Morrow

2009: 4.39 ERA/1.57 WHIP/8.1 K/9 (69.2 IP)
2010: 4.49 ERA/1.38 WHIP/10.9 K/9 (146 IP)
2011 Oliver: 4.17 ERA/1.32 WHIP/9.2 K/9 (126 IP)

Sporting an ERA of 6.00 heading into June, Morrow reined in his stuff, and produced a 3.53 ERA/1.24 WHIP to go along with a K/9 of 11.3 from June-August, including a one-hit, 17 strikeout, complete game shutout of the Rays. He was put in the garage in September to limit his innings.

Oliver thinks ... the ratios will trend downward, and the strikeouts will continue to come in bunches. If you extrapolate the Oliver numbers out using the THT Forecast for innings pitched (200), Morrow comes in as a top 50 pitcher, essentially a No. 4 starter in 12-team rotations.

I think ... there're plenty of reasons to indicate he'll better Oliver's projections. His xFIP sat at 3.63 last season, a significant difference from his 4.49 ERA. His BABIP of .348 was the fourth highest mark in the league. Both those numbers, combined with his productive summer, point to an ERA that could easily sit in the 3.50 range. As for that productive summer, it coincided perfectly with Bengie Molina becoming his personal catcher. The fireballer credits Molina with turning him on to the benefit of dialing down his power stuff ever so slightly, and relying more on his off-speed pitches. The result: a BB/9 ratio that went from 5.3 in the first two months, to 3.2 after, and a full inning increase in the length of his outings (from five innings to six).

Entering his age 26 season, Morrow appears ready to handle a full-season, meaning 200 innings, and 200 strikeouts, are a good bet—assuming, of course, that he stays healthy, which has been a problem in the past. There will be plenty of sleeper buzz heading into the season, so much so that he'll probably graduate from that designation by the time your draft rolls around. That means you'll have to reach a bit to secure his services. I think it'll prove worth it.


Edinson Volquez

2009: 4.35 ERA/1.32 WHIP/8.5 K/9 (49.2 IP)
2010: 4.31 ERA/1.50 WHIP/9.6 K/9 (62.2 IP)
2011 Oliver: 3.99 ERA/1.36 WHIP/8.8 K/9 (107.5 IP)

After a stellar 2008 season in which he posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.32 WHIP to go along with 206 Ks in 196 innings, Volquez blew out his elbow in June of '09 and missed the first three months of last year rehabbing it. He struggled when he returned, but settled down in August, compiling a 3.48 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 in his final nine starts.

Oliver thinks ... his recent tendency to give out free passes at alarming rates will be fixed, or at least improved enough to keep his ratios in check. After racking up a 5.3 BB/9 the past two years, the system projects that number to be a full point lower this season, mirroring the 4.2 BB/9 he possessed in 2008.

I think ... he stands to see significant improvement in that area as well, which should help him last deeper into games, giving him plenty of opportunities to rack up wins for a Reds team expected to contend for the NL Central crown. He was clearly experiencing elbow issues in 2009, no doubt altering his throwing motion and contributing to the wildness. Last year, he was pitching on a 12-month layoff, and was predictably rusty in the finer points of pitching, like locating pitches with consistency.

Now that he's fully healthy and will be properly prepped heading into the season, there's no reason to think his walk rate won't return to previous levels. Also working in his favor were an inflated .326 BABIP, and an xFIP of 3.87, which was actually lower than the number he posted during his breakout 2008 season. Pitching half his games in Great American Launching Pad does him no favors, but Volquez took steps to combat that last season, registering a career-high 53.9 groundball percentage. As for the strikeouts, those should be of no concern: He's posted a K/9 above 8.5 every year in Cincinnati, and his fastball averaged 93.8 mph in '10, a tick above where it was at pre-TJ surgery. If he can manage 180 innings, Volquez represents top 25 upside, with a top 75 price tag.

Rich Harden

2009: 4.09 ERA/1.34 WHIP/10.9 K/9 (141 IP)
2010: 5.58 ERA/1.66 WHIP/7.3 K/9 (92 IP)
2011 Oliver: 4.19 ERA/1.36 WHIP/9.6 K/9 (135 IP)

It's no surprise Harden pitched just 92 innings for the Rangers last year—that’s kind of his thing—but what was surprising were the outlandishly high ratios and the falling K/9 rate, all of which represented career lows. On the plus side, he did post a career high BB/9 of 6.1 percent. Oh, wait ...

Oliver thinks ... Harden's capable of replicating his 2009 line in Chicago. With seven very successful, albeit very abbreviated, seasons on his resume, it's certainly understandable why the system isn't willing to write the frustrating hurler off after one bad year. Further supporting Oliver's hope of a bounce-back: Harden is returning to McAfee Coliseum, where he holds a 2.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 302.1 career innings.

I think ... there are two ways to look at this:

Glass half full: He's only 29 years old, giving hope to the possibility last year was just a bad year; nothing more, nothing less. When he was sent down to Triple-A on a rehab stint, Harden had a 13.1 K/9, and, most importantly, walked only 3.1 hitters per nine. So the ability seems to still be there. His walk rate in the bigs was so out of line with his career average of 4.1 that it's reasonable to think his control issues were a result of a correctable mechanical or mental flaw. Plus, there's the return to Oakland, a much more pitcher-friendly ballpark than Arlington.

Glass half empty: Not only were his numbers down in nearly every single relevant category, and startling so at that, but he lost two miles an hour each off his fastball and slider—basically the only two pitches he throws. As a result, his swinging strike percentage fell to 7.7, down from 15.1 in '09. He was once considered a groundball pitcher, but Harden's fly ball percentage rose for the fourth year in a row, coming in at an extreme 51.2 percent. He may only be 29, but he has more than 800 innings on his already fragile body, and judging from the loss of velocity and control, he's starting to break down. Oakland hasn't even committed a spot in the rotation to Harden, and a role in the bullpen has been discussed.

The verdict: Argument B is much, MUCH stronger, but at the price he's going to cost you (free), Harden is worth a bench stash if you’re playing deep. You know, just in case.


Jorge de la Rosa

2009: 4.38 ERA/1.37 WHIP/9.4 K/9 (185 IP)
2010: 4.22 ERA/1.31 WHIP/8.4 K/9 (121.2 IP)
2011 Oliver: 3.89 ERA/1.32 WHIP/9.2 K/9 (156 IP)

The wildly unpredictable hurler won 19 of 22 games over the final four months of ’09, compiling a 3.94 ERA with a 9.4 K/9. He started last year in much the same fashion, winning three of his first four starts and posting a 3.56 ERA/1.21 WHIP/8.0 K/9 line in the process. A torn flexor tendon in, fittingly, the middle finger on his pitching hand cost him all of May and June, but he returned to record a 3.56 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over his final 14 outings.

Oliver thinks ... he's in for a career year. With a strikeout rate projected to once again exceed 9.0, and the continued decline of his ratios, the system ranks De la Rosa just outside the top 50 starting pitchers. If he can remain malady-free, 200 innings—and thus a top 30 ranking—are possible.

I Think ... the best is yet to come for DLR, but not necessarily in the strikeout department. According to his .278 BABIP, he was a tad lucky last year, but his HR/FB ratio was inordinately high at 15.8, a four point increase from 2009. If that number regresses to somewhere in the neighborhood of his career norm (11.7), De la Rosa could post a HR/9 under 1.0 for the first time in his career, thanks primarily to his increasing ability to keep the ball on the ground and out of the thin Colorado air. Last year, he produced a 1.81 GB/FB ratio, which ranked among the top 15 best marks in the league.

The reason for the improved ratio—it had never been above 1.31 with the Rockies—can likely be traced to his use of a change-up as his preferred second pitch instead of a slider. According to PITCHf/x, he used his change-up, which has a heavy sink to it, 29.4 percent of the time in 2010, as opposed to only 8.7 percent in 2009. The use of his slider went in the other direction, from 23.5 percent in '09 to five percent last season. That proved to be a good thing, as his groundball-inducing change-up was one of the best in baseball.

The modified repertoire could have played a role in his falling strikeout rate, though, as the power fastball/slider combo he previously used is more conducive to high whiff totals. All that said, even if his K/9 hovers around 8.0, I’d still draft DLR as a top 50 pitcher simply based on the improving peripherals.


Daniel Hudson

2009: 2.32 ERA/0.94 WHIP/ 10.1 K/9 (147.1 IP in the minors)
2010: 2.45 ERA/0.99 WHIP/7.9 K/9 (95.1 IP)
2011 Oliver Line: 3.84 ERA/1.23 WHIP/8.4 K/9 (170 IP)

One of the White Sox' top pitching prospects entering the 2010 season, Hudson was called up in July, surrendered 11 runs in his first 15 innings, and was promptly traded to the Diamondbacks. Hudson then made 11 starts for Arizona to close out the season, endearing himself to fantasy owners by compiling a 1.69 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 7.9 K/9. Kenny Williams, I'm sure, was not pleased.

Oliver thinks ... he’s the real deal, and ready to perform like a No. 2 starters in 12-teamers. Coming in as the 24th ranked pitcher—directly ahead of Chris Carpenter, Ricky Nolasco and Chad Billingsley—Hudson will likely be drafted much lower, providing the opportunity for major value on draft day.

I think ... I'm all in. Hudson dominated at every level in his brief stint in the minors, averaging a lofty 10.6 K/9 while walking just 2.9 guys per nine, and that ability translated nicely in his first extended big league action. The hulking hurler (6-foot-3, 225) registered a fastball velocity of 92.5 in '10, and showed excellent secondary pitches, especially his change-up, which ranked as the most valuable change in the game according to Fangraphs linear weights.

The ERA expectations do need to be kept in check, though. Despite the sub-2.00 ERA in Arizona, his xFIP hovered around 3.75, and he received good fortune in his BABIP (.245), HR/FB rate (7.1), and strand rate (83.1-percent, fourth highest mark in the league). An increase in homers especially could be of concern, as his 45.5 flyball percentage coupled with a HR/FB rate expected to regress to the mean, could lead to a long ball problem similar to what Dan Haren suffered from last season. While that's reason to exhibit a modicum of restraint come draft day, the K/9 upside, polished repertoire, and low walk rate (1.8 BB/9 in Arizona), are enough to make me throw caution to the wind, and draft Hudson as a top 30 starter.

A quick look at a few other candidates:

Gio Gonzalez

2009: 5.75 ERA/1.71 WHIP/9.9 K/9 (98.2 IP)
2010: 3.23 ERA/1.31 WHIP/7.7 K/9 (200.2 IP)
2011 Oliver: 4.24 ERA/1.42 WHIP/8.6 K/9 (177 IP)

Gonzalez suffered a big drop-off in his K rate between '09 and last year, but as you'll notice above, it was accompanied by a precipitous drop in his ERA, which more than made up for the decreased strikeouts. Pick a category, any category (other than K rate), and Gonzalez made positive strides in 2010, lowering his BB/9 by a full point, down to a manageable 4.1, and increasing his groundball percentage for a third straight season. He also showed improved effectiveness in all three of his pitches. Since he's still only 25, look for Gonzalez to take another positive step in his development, and while the ERA will probably be closer to 4.00 than 3.00—his xFIP came in at 4.18 last year—there's a good possibility his K rate rebounds and reaches the 8.5 K/9 threshold.

Bud Norris

2009: 4.53 ERA/1.50 WHIP/8.7 K/9 (55.2 IP)
2010: 4.92 ERA/1.48 WHIP/9.3 K/9 (153.2 IP)
2011 Oliver: 4.52 ERA/1.47 WHIP/8.6 K/9 (154 IP)

Norris held a 6.80 ERA and 5.4 BB/9 through his first nine starts, went down the minors, worked on his control, and returned late in June a different man. Well, a different pitcher, anyway. Over his final 18 starts, Norris produced a 4.17 ERA and lowered his BB/9 to 4.1, while still keeping his K/9 at a healthy 8.5. His minor league numbers suggest there's more improvement to be had in his control (3.7 career BB/9), and in 134.2 Triple-A innings, he holds a 2.67 ERA. If he learns to harness his potent arsenal, which includes a 93.6 mph fastball (average speed) and a plus, power slider, Norris could easily be a top 50 starting pitcher in 2011. Won't cost you much to find out, either.

James McDonald

2009 Line: 4.00 ERA/1.49 WHIP/7.7 K/9 (63 IP)
2010 Line: 4.02 ERA/1.38 WHIP/8.5 K/9 (71.2 IP)
2011 Oliver Line: 4.22 ERA/1.41 WHIP/8.3 K/9 (133 IP)

McDonald was sent to Pittsburgh in August and struggled initially, but thrived in September, allowing three or fewer runs in all six of his starts. All told, in 11 starts with the Pirates, he posted a 3.52 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9. A nice line, but there are warning flags. While his ERA impressed, his xFIP came in at 4.03 thanks to a unsustainably low 3.6 HR/FB ratio. Also, as with almost all the guys we’ve discussed, McDonald’s career BB/9 sits above 4.0, and he failed to pitch past the sixth inning in seven of his 11 starts with Pittsburgh, despite averaging 97 pitches per outing. If forced to choose between McDonald and Norris right now, I’d draft the latter, but a nice spring out of the former could easily sway my decision.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Ryan 2011-01-25T10:59:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-september-standouts/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-september-standouts/#When:11:28:15 Jose Bautista led the league with 10 homers (he only totaled 13 the whole season), and a Cincinnati Reds outfielder arrived from Triple-A to hit five homers and steal seven bases, which he followed up by totaling 22 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 2010. That player? Drew Stubbs, of course. We also met Julio Borbon, whose four homers in 37 games proved to be a result of a fortuitous HR/FB ratio rather than a sign his power was blossoming. (He managed just three in 137 games last year.)

Moving our attention to September 2010, let's look at four of the top hitting performers during the final month that will have owners debating whether to believe in, or bypass come draft day.


Kila Ka'aihue:

September Line: .261 AVG/15 R/6 HR/18 RBI (110 PAs)
2011 Oliver Line: .260 AVG/76 R/26 HR/80 RBI (582 PAs)

After being stranded at Triple-A for three straight seasons, the Royals finally made room for Ka’aihue in early August. He struggled initially, prompting some to prematurely label him a "Quad A" All-Star. When September hit, though, so did Ka'aihue.

Oliver Thinks ... the skill set that made Ka'aihue one of the most patient boppers in all the minors will translate nicely to the big leagues. In over 1,110 Triple-A plate appearances, the Big Pineapple averaged a bomb every 16 at-bats, and his BB/K was an excellent 1.2. Slated to see every day action at first base and DH in 2010, Oliver projects a home run every 18 at-bats, and a still stupendous 0.97 BB/K for Ka'aihue, which, if he does that, will place him firmly in the top 15 of fantasy first basemen.

I Think ... if he amasses close to 600 PAs, the Oliver projection may even be on the low-end. Ka'aihue's penciled into the cleanup role for the Royals, right behind .300 machine Billy Butler, which should lead to plenty of RBI opportunities. And considering his ability to draw a free pass, he'll be on base enough to put up a sneaky-good run total for a lumbering 1B/DH (think a young Adam Dunn).

His 49.3 FB% was on the extreme end, which isn’t such a bad place to be; of the 11 qualified players (400 plate appearances) to post a FB% of 49 or greater last season, only Jonny Gomes (18) failed to hit at least 23 home runs. If Ka’aihue avoids a massive slump, and if he sees a slight bump in his HR/FB ratio (it sat at 11.4 last year), he has a legitimate shot at 30 homers over a full season.

The .217 batting average he posted last year is worrisome, but it was primarily due to a crummy .231 BABIP. The .260 average Oliver projects appears spot-on—his MLE average came in it at .264 last year. Although, with some extra luck on top of his already anticipated improvement in the BABIP department, his average could easily hit .280. My suggestion: draft him based on the 2011 Oliver line, but feel free to secretly hope for a little more.


Ryan Raburn:

September Line: .358 AVG/18 R/5 HR/18 RBI (116 PAs)
2011 Oliver Line: .275 AVG/53 R/17 HR/60 RBI (415 PAs)

The versatile Raburn, in his age-29 season, finally received extended playing time late in the year. He didn't disappoint, smacking 13 homers in the final two months, with an average well north of .300. Impressive as his stats were, questions still abound as to whether he's the next Jayson Werth, or simply a utility player who burst into flames for a two month stretch.

Oliver Thinks ... he was unconscionably hot in August/September, but that there's legitimate pop in his wood, and the average will be usable. If we use the THT Forecast for ABs (499), and extrapolate his Oliver projections out, Raburn comes in with 71 runs, 23 homers, and 80 RBIs—numbers befitting a third outfielder in 12-team leagues.

I Think ... if he can handle a full-time role over the length of the season, he’ll hit those projections and then some. I don’t know that he can, though. As a part-timer in '09, he bopped an impressive 16 balls out of the park, while registering a 17.0 HR/FB ratio and .241 isolated power number. As his playing time increased in 2010, those numbers regressed, though still remained healthy at 12.2 and .194 respectively. Whether those totals simply normalized, or if they’ll continue to fall as pitchers see him on a more consistent basis is where the questions come in.

While he’s currently the Tigers starting left fielder, he’s not without competition. Last season’s surprise rookie, Brennan Boesch, will be breathing down his neck, and Raburn will undoubtedly feel the pressure to produce right out of the gate, something he’s never been able to do—in 152 career at-bats in April and May, he's posted a .209 average, failing to go yard a single time. If Raburn doesn’t receive the same kind of luck he experienced over the final two months of last season, which is probable considering his BABIP sat at .380, a slow start could easily morph into a prolonged slump, and removal from the starting lineup.

If you can use him at second base—Raburn played 18 games there last year—bump him up your cheat sheets considerably, but as an outfield-only commodity, it'd be wise not to extend yourself too much on a 30-year old player with such an untested track record.


Peter Bourjos:

September Line: .206 AVG/11 R/4 HR/8 RBI/6 SB (106 PAs)
2011 Oliver Line: .254 AVG/73 R/11 HR/55 RBI/23 SB (589 PAs)

The speedy Bourjos made it the bigs on the strength of his elite defensive skills in center field, and once there, flashed the kind of speed/power combo that makes fantasy owners salivate on draft day. The average, though, was low enough to trigger the gag reflex.

Oliver Thinks ... you can pencil in a 10/20 season for the man Torii Hunter referred to as "the fastest white guy I ever saw." And the average, while still not appealing, should be closer to the .293 number he posted over five minor league seasons than the Mendoza level he performed at last year.

I Think ... the upside is unmistakable—in 415 ABs at Triple-A last season, Bourjos hit .314 with 13 homers, 12 triples, and 27 stolen bases—but his inability to draw a walk, combined with a high strikeout rate (he registered just two walks against 25 strikeouts in September), make me leery. His BB/K ratio of 0.36 in the minors doesn't suggest his big-league performance was terribly flukey, and if it continues, he’ll struggle to reach base enough to avoid a minor league recall, elite defense and base-stealing prowess or not.

Interestingly, and you can make of this stat what you want, but only five players saw a larger majority of pitches inside the strike zone than Bourjos last season. As you would expect, the guys ahead of him were of the slap-hitting variety, suggesting opposing pitchers weren't afraid to serve up hittable balls to players with such low power outputs. Bourjos looks the part of those players, but as his .177 ISO indicates, he's not.

My take: without a lengthy scouting report on the books, pitchers saw a speed guy hitting in the nine-hole, and approached him as they would others of that ilk. As a result, Bourjos saw an inordinately high volume of drivable balls. As pitchers become more familiar with the type of hitter he is, they'll predictably adjust their approach, in turn, forcing Bourjos to adjust his. Whether or not he's capable of doing so is up for debate, but I'm not willing to invest more than a buck to find out.

Danny Espinosa:

September Line: .214 AVG/16 R/6 HR/15 RBI/0 SB (112 PAs)
2011 Oliver Line: .244 AVG/73 R/19 HR/69 RBI/15 SB (599 PAs)

Espinosa didn't get called up until rosters expanded in September, but when he arrived, he arrived with a bang, hitting three homers in his first five games, and finishing the month with six bombs. Of his 22 hits, 11 went for extra bases, though 22 hits in 103 at-bats was a tad disconcerting.

Oliver Thinks ... the middle infielder is ready to produce elite counting numbers in his first full season. The average won’t be pretty, but compared to his competitors—the second base position produced just 10 qualified players with a batting average above .270 last year—his power/speed production will still be enough to make him a top 15 player at the position.

I Think ... one look at his minor league numbers—40 HRs, 145 RBI, 56 SBs in 275 games—is enough to ignore the .214 average, which was held down by a .239 BABIP in his brief stint with the Nats last year. His ISO of .233 was bettered by only Troy Tulowitzki and Jed Lowrie among middle infielders with 100 plate appearances. To be fair, it’s a small sample size, and his best number in that category in the minors was .202, but even if he registers an ISO of .176 this season, as Oliver projects, that’s still a reasonably high number for his position.

Some may question the lofty steals total since he only attempted two stolen bases in a month of action, and was thrown out both times, but that was more likely a result of only finding himself on first base a measly 21 times in 28 games, rather than an indictment on his speed. He'll need to cut down on his strikeouts (29.1 K% with a 14.3 SwStr% last year) to keep the average from killing his value, but if he continues to drive the ball, he’ll be afforded a fairly long leash during his rookie season, providing him enough opportunities to make a late-round pick in 12-team mixers well worth the investment.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Ryan 2011-01-18T11:28:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-stretching-out-the-arms/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-stretching-out-the-arms/#When:09:01:15
As we inch closer to April, we'll start focusing in on specific types of player, and adding more weight as we go, but for now, here's a brief, and admittedly random, look at a few hurlers whose Oliver projection caught my eye upon first glance.

As will be the case throughout, I've used Tom Tango's formula of 2*W + SV + K/5 + IP - (H + BB + ER)/2 to assign a position rank based on what Oliver projects for the upcoming season.

For an in-depth explanation of the Oliver Projections, make sure to read creator Brian Cartwright's write-up. And if you haven't already, don’t forget to purchase the THT Forecasts to gain access to all the projections, along with many other useful tools to help you dominate your league in 2011.


Colby Lewis

2009: 2.96 ERA/0.99 WHIP/9.4 K/9
2010: 3.72 ERA/1.18WHIP/8.8 K/9
2011 Oliver: 3.20 ERA/1.12 WHIP/8.5 K/9

After altering his delivery, refining his slider, and learning how to pound the strike zone in Japan, Lewis came back to the U.S. a completely different pitcher than when he left in '07. The result: a World Series appearance, and a plaque on his mantle proclaiming him the "2010 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper of the Year." Or there should be anyway.

Oliver Thinks...he can be even better this season. Lewis' end totals last season were predictably higher than what he posted abroad, but the skill-set translated nicely. Lewis was among the elite in terms of his K/9 (8.8) and finished with a K/BB ratio (3.0) that ranked in the top 25 of starting pitchers.

I Think...Oliver's infatuation with Lewis, which began prior to last year and proved spot-on, is well founded. Nothing was out of line with his BABIP in 2010, and his FIP (3.55) and xFIP (3.93) were both under four. His strand rate was on par with the league average, and his brilliant postseason (1.72 ERA in four starts), proved his arm is capable of handling 200 innings, and then some. He was also remarkably consistent, completing six innings in 24 of his 32 starts, and only giving up more than four runs on three occasions.

His posted FB% of 44.9 is a bit worrisome considering the homer-friendly environs of Arlington, but his HR/FB rate was a pretty normal 8.2 last year, and it was even lower at home (6.6) than it was on the road (9.3). According to the Tango ranks, Lewis comes in as the 11th-best starting pitcher on the board, and while I think that may be a tad high, a second consecutive top-20 finish seems entirely possible.


Ricky Romero

2009: 4.30 ERA/1.52 WHIP/7.1 K/9
2010: 3.73 ERA/1.29 WHIP/7.5 K/9
2011 Oliver: 4.45 ERA/1.45 WHIP/6.8 K/9

Romero was brilliant over the first month of 2010, posting a 2.25 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 7.7 K/9 in his first five starts, but his numbers returned to the realm of the reasonable, and he posted a 4.03 ERA/1.36 WHIP from May on. Still, for a 25-year-old pitcher in the toughest division in baseball, his second season can only be considered a success.

Oliver Thinks...we're more likely to get the 2009 version of Romero than the 2010 model. Despite his lofty draft status (sixth pick in the 2005 draft), Romero's minor league numbers were so unimpressive (4.42 ERA/1.47 WHIP/7.0 K/9 in 430 minor league innings) that many fantasy owners remain skeptical about his big league ceiling. Apparently, so does Oliver.

I Think...I believe in Romero more than most. His xFIP was nearly identical to his ERA last year (3.75 ERA to 3.73 xFIP), and, by almost all measures, he made positive strides as a sophomore, despite a BABIP that registered 31 points lower. Already an extreme groundball inducer, Romero ever-so-slightly improved in that department, drawing grounders 55.2% of the time, one of only nine players with a number above 55%. His K/BB saw a healthy bump, from 1.78 to 2.12, and his HR/FB ratio declined from an inflated 12.8% in '09 to a more tolerable 9.4% in 2010.

Pitching in the AL East does him no favors, but if he can take another small step in his development. and limit the major blowups – he allowed 35% of his total earned runs in just five starts – Romero looks destined to far outperform his Oliver projection.


Josh Johnson

2009: 3.23 ERA/3.40 WHIP/8.2 K/9
2010: 2.30 ERA/1.11 WHIP/9.1 K/9
2011 Oliver: 3.29 ERA/1.19 WHIP/8.1 K/9

Johnson finished 2010 with an NL-leading 2.30 ERA, and from the start of May to the end of July, there wasn't a pitcher in the fantasy universe as dominant as the hulking righty. He posted a 1.31 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 during that stretch, and at one point reeled off 13 straight starts without surrendering more than two runs, though with the Marlins sputtering at the plate, he only managed to record seven wins. August got a little bumpy, and he was shut down in early September with a balky back, but in the end, nobody was complaining.

Oliver Thinks...J.J. isn't an SP1 in 12-team leagues. Even if you take the THT Forecast for innings pitched (195 instead of the 175 Oliver projects), Johnson only comes in as the 16th-best starting pitcher, sandwiched between Tommy Hanson and Roy Oswalt.

I Think...Johnson has better chance to finish as the top pitcher in the game than outside the top 20. His xFIP (3.15) was 85 points higher than his ERA last year, which was an expected discrepancy considering he posted a league-low 4.2% HR/FB. That ratio will definitely rise in 2011, but with a career number of 7.1%, don’t look for it inflate too much, giving him room for regression while still being able to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA.

As for the rest of his numbers, his K/9 increased from 8.2 to 9.1, thanks in large part to a 2.5 point jump in his Swinging Strike percentage (SwStr%), which at 11.8% was good for the third-highest mark in the league. Also positively, his BB/9 decreased from 2.50 to 2.35, marking the second straight season he's seen his strikeouts head north, while his walks went south. Entering his physical prime, the only thing holding Johnson back is a potentially hindered win total, but even that won’t be enough to stop him from being an SP1 in all formats.

Mike Leake

2009: 1.71 ERA/0.84 WHIP/10.2 K/9 (at Arizona State)
2010: 4.23 ERA/1.49 WHIP/5.9 K/9
2011 Oliver: 3.52 ERA/1.21 WHIP/7.5 K/9

Bypassing the minors completely, Leake proved worthy by posting a 2.22 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through his first 11 starts. Then he ran smack into the wall in June, and watched his ERA inflate until he was sent to the bullpen in August.

Oliver Thinks...he'll take a significant step forward in his second year, lowering his ERA 71 points, his WHIP 28 points, and increasing his K/9 from 5.9 to 7.5, which, if you extrapolate those projection out to the THT Forecast for IP (190), places him firmly in the top 30 of SP.

I Think...the optimism is understandable – Leake induced ground balls at a 50% clip, and after issuing 12 free passes in his first two starts, only allowed 35 in his final 20 outings, good for a 2.5 BB/9 that would have ranked in the top third among qualified pitchers. BUT, his BABIP of .317 was above the league norm, and his HR/FB ratio was quite high at 13.2%. That can be explained away partly by his groundball tendency and home ballpark, but it was still three points higher than any other Reds pitcher with at least 100 innings pitched. He also failed to strike out more than six hitters in any outing, and only surpassed five Ks three times.

One could argue his expansive repertoire, good control, and knowledge of his craft are sure to lead to better numbers, and that after the league adjusted to him last year, it's his turn to make the adjustments. I wouldn't necessarily argue against those points, but considering the plethora of quality starting options in Cincinnati right now, there's a decent shot Leake isn't even in the rotation at the beginning of the season. Obviously, the situation will remain fluid right up until the end of spring training, but I have a hard time envisioning he's anything more than a matchup play in 12-teamers in 2011.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Ryan 2011-01-12T09:01:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-wading-into-the-batting-pool/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-wading-into-the-batting-pool/#When:08:02:15
That leaves a two-month window between January and February for me to relax, read a book or two, and spend some much-needed quality time with the wife. Yeah, right. And let my competition get a two-month head start on their prep work? I don't think so. Shunning evenings on the couch watching Boardwalk Empire for evenings in front of the computer studying xFIP is how trophies are hoisted and bragging rights are earned.

There are plenty of ways to get wet, but in this space, I want to specifically use the Oliver projections in the THT Forecasts as our springboard into the fantasy world. If you're unfamiliar with Oliver, creator Brian Cartwright has a must-read article explaining all the intricacies. Put in ultra-simplistic terms, it's a full-featured player projection system that uses a weighted mean of the previous three seasons, adjusted for age and park factor, and regressed to the mean.

Oliver's predictions shouldn't be viewed as the gospel truth, but rather as a tool by which to judge, compare, and dissect particular players and their fantasy prospects for the upcoming season. Consider this initial offering a dipping of the toe into the batter pool. Next week we'll get in up to our waist in pitchers, and the week after, we'll jump headfirst into the deep end. For now, though, here's a player at each position whose Oliver projection randomly caught my eye upon first glance.

One last note: I've used Tom Tango's formula of HR + SB + (H -.27*AB) + R/3 + RBI/3 to assign a position rank based on Oliver's projections. It's a widely-used, effective gauge of 5x5 value, and when applied to Oliver, shows a big-picture view of who the computer likes and who it doesn't.

CATCHER:

Matt Wieters

2009: .287 AVG/35 R/9 HR/43 RBI (385 PA)
2010: .249 AVG/37 R/11 HR/55 RBI (502 PA)
2011 Oliver: .266 AVG/62 R/16 HR/66 RBI (543 PA)

When Wieters was called up in 2009, he was supposed to be an MLB-ready backstop with good pop and a guaranteed .300 average in his back pocket. Instead, he's struggled to keep his average above .250, and the power has failed to befit a man once hyped as "God in Cleats." Perhaps "Kurt Suzuki in an Orioles Uniform" would have been a more appropriate moniker.

Oliver Thinks...the Suzuki comparison is spot on. According to the Tango formula, Oliver values Wieters as the 9th-ranked catcher, right behind the balanced, but unspectacular, Suzuki. Even with an anticipated power increase, Wieters won’t fulfill expectation until the BA migrates north of .280, at the very least.

I Think...a full explosion is still possible, but mainly because I just spent an inordinate amount of time re-familiarizing myself with Wieters' drool-worthy minor league numbers (32 HR/.343 AVG in 578 AB). He made some positive strides last year, walking a bit more, striking out less, and improving his overall contact rate by 5.2 percent. He even decreased his Swinging Strike percentage (SwStr%) to 7.2, a big drop from the 10.5 number he posted in '09.

The gains, though, failed to show up in his end numbers, primarily due to a BABIP that plummeted nearly 70 points, from .356 in '09 to .287 in '10. Assuming the BABIP normalizes somewhere between the two and he continues to make small strides in his approach, the Oliver line seems like a reasonable floor to pencil in for Wieters.

FIRST BASE:

Kendry Morales

2009: .306 AVG/86 R/34 HR/108 RBI (622 PA)
2010: .290 AVG/29 R/11 HR/38 RBI (211 PA)
2011 Oliver: .292 AVG/59 R/22HR/73 RBI (446 PA)

After a remarkably consistent 2009 season that saw him exceed nearly every expectation, Morales followed it up in 2010 by doing something at the plate no player in recent memory has been able to accomplish – though to be fair, not many have attempted to fracture their fibula while celebrating a game-winning grand slam.

Oliver Thinks...the Baseball Gods have it in for Morales. Taking into account his injury-shortened year and the lone full season of MLB production on his resume, Oliver projects him at only 446 plate appearances (407 AB), predictably stifling his counting numbers, and placing him just outside the top 15 at the position.

I Think...based on the data, it's understandable why Oliver is concerned about durability, but considering the freakish nature of last year's injury and the lack of past ailments, the worry seems unwarranted in this specific case. Last year, albeit in only two months of action, Morales showed no signs that his 2009 season was a fluke, and if you extrapolate the projections out to 500 AB, you'll see Oliver agrees, showing 27 HR, 91 RBI, and 73 runs. That kind of production would sandwich him firmly between Justin Morneau and Kevin Youkilis in the rankings, which seems just about perfect.

SECOND BASE:

Dan Uggla

2009: .243 AVG/84 R/31 HR/90 RBI (668 PA)
2010: .287 AVG/100 R/33 HR/105 RBI (674 PA)
2011 Oliver: .266 AVG/81 R/32 HR/97 RBI (619 PA)

Uggla has four straight 30-homer seasons, and, despite hitting in the middle of mostly mediocre Marlins lineups, he's never driven in fewer than 88 runs in his career. At a second base position light on depth, and even lighter in power production, Uggla's consistent bopping looks extremely appealing.

Oliver Thinks...even if you factor in a 20-point drop in BA, the only second baseman more appealing than Uggla is Chase Utley. That may have something to with the system's preference towards players with greasy, slicked-back hair, or maybe it's a sign Oliver hates all things related to New York (Robinson Cano) and Boston (Dustin Pedroia). Either way, Uggla projects as the only two-bagger to top 30 homers (as he was last year), and the only player north of 90 RBI (only he and Cano hit that total in '10).

I Think...it's hard to argue that a 30/100 season won't happen if Uggla manages to play more than 145 games, which he's done every year of his career. Personally, I'd still take Cano and Pedroia over him, mostly because a healthy batting average – even a .266 mark – can't be counted on out of Uggla. In five seasons, he's been total feast or famine, finishing with an average below .245 twice, and above .280 twice.

Considering all his peripherals held true to form last year, with the only notable difference coming in a BABIP 28 points above his career norm, it's logical to conclude 2011 won't feature the type of average that leads to the elite standing Oliver is suggesting.

THIRD BASE:

Pablo Sandoval

2009: .330 AVG/79 R/25 HR/90 RBI (633 PA)
2010: .268 AVG/61 R/13 HR/63 RBI (618 PA)
Oliver 2011: .299 AVG/77 R/21 HR/86 RBI (598 PA)

There wasn't a bigger disappointment, both literally and figuratively, than Sandoval in 2010. After being drafted as a top-five guy at third base, he was nearly unownable, especially in H2H leagues, where he provided a .336 average and nine homers in the months of April and August, but hit just .231 with four long balls in the other four months combined.

Oliver Thinks...Sandoval will, at long last, embrace the philosophy of "diet and exercise" during the offseason, and hopefully stop swinging at so many crappy pitches. Well, Oliver doesn't use those words exactly, but they’re certainly implied, because the only way the average bounces back to .300 and the power creeps into the 20-plus range is if he makes both a priority.

I Think...I'm sketched out by the thought of drafting him as a top-five player at 3B again, which Oliver indicates is a good idea. Last year his already inflated O-Swing% (swings at pitches outside the strike zone) jumped from 41.7 to 44.6 – with only Vladimir Guerrero embodying the "nose to toes" approach more than Pablo. Even more disconcerting, the percentage of pitches Sandoval swung at inside the zone dropped from 83.0 to 78.9, while his contact rate stayed static at 82%.

This indicates he was swinging at more bad pitches and fewer good ones, while making the same amount of contact—a recipe for declining batting average if I’ve ever seen one. I’m not quite ready to write him off as a cautionary tale of unchecked excess, but it’ll take a noticeably trimmer Sandoval, accompanied by glowing reports of a more restrained approach at the plate, before I’m willing to jump back on the Panda’s back.

SHORTSTOP:

Jose Reyes

2008: .297 AVG/113 R/16 HR/68 RBI/56 SB (763 PA)
2010: .282 AVG/83 R/11 HR/54 RBI/30 SB (603 PA)
Oliver 2011: .280 AVG/78 R/9 HR/51 RBI/24 SB (511 PA)

After an injury-marred '09 campaign, Reyes saw his production return exactly to the level it was prior to the calf injuries. Well, almost exactly. His stolen base total dropped to a very pedestrian 30, down from the 56 he pilfered in his last healthy season.

Oliver Thinks...age, injury, and a lack of walks will again prevent him from being an upper-echelon base stealer. Even if you take out the injury concerns and extrapolate Oliver's projections to 700 PAs, 33 SBs are all you get.

I Think...if Reyes stays healthy all year, he's still capable of a 50-stolen base season. Big “IF,” though. Last year he missed nearly all of training camp and the first week of the season with a thyroid issue, and dealt with an oblique strain that caused him to miss half of July and hindered his running ability when he did return. When Reyes was ailment-free he was very effective, swiping 29 of 36 bags outside of July, but the lack of attempts is of notable concern.

After averaging 80 attempts between 2005-08, he only registered 40 last season. You can chalk some of that up to injuries, but the plummeting walk rate, which fell to 5.5%, by far the lowest number he'd produced since '05, had as much to do with it as anything. Obviously, fewer walks equal fewer opportunities to steal bases. Oliver thinks that number will bounce-back to 7.2% in 2011, and if it does, and he stays healthy, the speed is still blazing enough to return Reyes to elite status. As it stands, he ranks a distant third at the disturbingly weak SS position.

OUTFIELDER:

Jason Bay

2009: .267 AVG/103 R/36 HR/119 RBI/10 SB (638 PA)
2010: .259 AVG/48 R/6 HR/47 RBI/10 SB (401 PA)
2011 Oliver: .263 AVG/72 R/22 HR/75 RBI/8 SB (544 PA)

Bay, fresh off a 36 HR/119 RBI season, was one of the worst hitters in baseball last season. In 95 games – his season was mercifully ended by a concussion in July – the 32-year-old managed to hit a home run in just four contests, finishing with a whopping six on the year, and his ISO fell from .269 to .144.

Oliver Thinks...similar to David Wright, Bay's power will return in his second season in Citi Field. Not to his Red Sox levels, but enough so that he's draftable as a third outfielder in 12-team leagues.

I Think...it's been proven that Citi Field wasn't the sole culprit for Bay's steep decline, though what was, I still have no idea. His K:BB ratio was pretty close to his career norm, and nothing was askew with his batted-ball numbers, either (other than his career-low 5.1% HR/FB, of course).

The only thing worth noting was an elevated swing percentage, particularly on balls outside the zone, but it's hard to tell if that was the result of a change in approach, or simply the byproduct of frustrated hacking that often accompanies prolonged slumps. Unless his skill set completely deteriorated on the flight from Boston to New York, Bay is an excellent bounce-back candidate you'll be able to purchase at a bargain-basement price.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Chris Ryan 2011-01-05T08:02:15+00:00