The Hardball Times -- Craig Strain http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-20T08:09:15+00:00 The remains of the season: Florida Marlins http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-remains-of-the-season-florida-marlins/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-remains-of-the-season-florida-marlins/#When:05:05:15
But before we look ahead, let's see how in the world the Marlins got into this position, for it may tell us something about what lies ahead.

The pitching


At the start of the season, everyone, including me, picked the Marlins to finish either last or next-to-last in the NL East, with good reason. Sure, the team could hit, but the first three in the starting rotation consisted of Mark Hendrickson, Rick VandenHurk and Andrew Miller. While VandenHurk and Miller have the talent to one day be quality major league starters, they aren't there yet. Scott Olsen was recovering from shoulder tendinitis and Ricky Nolasco was still trying to build arm strength after missing all of 2007 with an elbow injury. Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez were nowhere in sight after having surgery during the offseason. Johnson had the Tommy John procedure and Sanchez underwent shoulder surgery.

Needless to say. the starting rotation performed as advertised in the early going, Olsen and Nolasco were still rehabbing, but in the majors. Hendrickson, VandenHurk and Miller spent most of their time trying to make it through to the fifth. But the one thing no one thought about when making predictions was the Marlins bullpen. For most of the year and especially most of the first half, the Marlins' pen saved the day. They were able to come in and clean up the messes. By keeping the team in the game, they allowed the bats to catch up. The Marlins lead the majors with 33 come-from-behind wins.

Eventually, Nolasco and Olsen came into form and the Marlins now had two quality starters and three other guys who might throw a good game every now and then. At least the bullpen got a couple of days off every week.

And then Santa Claus came in July. Josh Johnson made his first start of the season on July 10. Chris Volstad took the mound for his first start on July 11 and Anibal Sanchez joined the party on July 31.

Marlins starting pitchers
Pitcher			ERA+
Scott Olsen 		103
Ricky Nolasco		106
Josh Johnson		124
Chris Volstad		155
Anibal Sanchez		 98
Mark Hendrickson	 72
Rick VandenHurk		 54
Andrew Miller		 74
Burke Badenhop		 68
Ryan Tucker		 49

VandenHurk, Miller, Badenhop and Tucker are now all down in the minors for further development. Hendrickson is mainly being used as an innings eater in blowout games.

The offense


When the season started, the Marlins hitters did what they do best: come out of their shoes when they swing. For most of the season, the Marlins led the majors in home runs. And they may still when the season ends but some of the more profligate home run hitters are in a bit of a slump. (But more on that later.)

The Marlins are the first team in the history of the National League to have all four infielders hit at least 20 home runs. And they are on pace to be the only team ever in MLB history to have all four infielders hit at least 25 home runs. Currently, Dan Uggla has 26, Hanley Ramirez 25, Mike Jacobs 24 and Jorge Cantu 20.

The Marlins are dead last in the NL in sacrifice hits. The Fish don't play small ball. However, they are fourth in the NL in extra base hits while playing half their games in a pitchers' home park.

The one good feature of swinging as hard as you can is that the team doesn't ground into many double plays. In fact, the Marlins have hit into only 65 this season, the second lowest total in the NL behind Milwaukee's 61.

What's ahead


The Marlins have four of their five starters from 2006 back. As has been pointed out, this is not the same group that put up those, shall we say, less-than-desirable numbers earlier in the season.

The bullpen is still looking strong and with the September call-ups just ahead, should finish the season without a lot of wear and tear.

The offense, unfortunately, is in a slump. Since the All-Star break, the Marlins are only hitting .236/.325/.397, off from the before-break averages of .256/.321/.441.

The main culprits for the decline are Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla and Cody Ross. Since the break, Ramirez is hitting .217/.347/.361 as opposed to his before-break numbers of .311/.391/.566. Uggla during this time is .179/.273/.333 and before the All-Star game was producing at .286/.374/.605. Ross since July 17 is hitting .203/.295./.362; pre-break he was batting .266/.316/.512.

Going on the theory that none of the three has forgotten how to hit, they will eventually emerge from their slumber and start putting up good numbers again.

The Marlins have, at the time I am writing this, 22 home games and 20 road games left on the schedule. Unfortunately, most of those are against teams in contention, including traveling to Arizona for three and St. Louis for three. The good news is that the Marlins still have six games each with the Phillies and the Mets and therefore can control their own destiny. On the negative side, the Marlins play the Braves six times before the end of season and that is a team they just haven't figured out how to beat consistently.

The Marlins haven't lost more than four games in a row all season and they did that twice—once in May and the other time in June. On the flip side, the Marlins' longest win streak this season is seven games.

The Fish are grinders and they're not going away. It is possible that the Phillies or the Mets could go on a run and run away, but I don't see that happening. I'm guessing when that final series takes place in New York against the Mets, it will mean something more to the Marlins than just the chance to play spoiler.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Craig Strain 2008-08-12T05:05:15+00:00 Five Questions: Florida Marlins http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-florida-marlins3/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-florida-marlins3/#When:04:05:15
There was one important fact that no one factored into the projections—the rookies were extremely talented. As they became comfortable in their surroundings, the talent started to shine through.

The Marlins went on a run that sent sportscasters scrambling to learn how to pronounce the names of players. On Sept. 4, their record improved to 69-68, thus becoming the first team in major league history to be 20 games below .500 and come back over .500 in the same season.

To top it off, they were in the wild card hunt and somewhere along the way, they became the favorite underdog of many. Unfortunately, the long season took its toll on the rookies. Some started wearing down and others suffered injuries. The young Marlins struggled down the stretch and finished the year 78-84.

So what does the 2007 season hold for the Marlins?

Let's break that question down into the five most relevant questions for the Marlins this season.

Here we go:

1. Will the now second-year position players continue to improve or is a "sophomore slump" in their future?

Certainly no one knows for sure, but this is how I see it. First and foremost, they are talented hitters. Last season they were able to surprise the other teams that had no idea what their strengths and weaknesses were as hitters. For example: Miguel Olivo is an excellent first ball, fastball hitter. With him manning the eight hole, the first half of the season pitchers would try to get ahead by throwing a fastball on the first pitch. Of course this was to Olivo's liking and he was doing well at the plate. As the season went on, the other teams finally realized that a fastball on the first pitch wasn't the best approach when facing Olivo. So they adjusted and started throwing breaking balls. Well, much like Pedro Cerrano, the results for Olivo in this change in strategy were not so good.

In other words, the other teams now have videos, scouting reports and experience in facing the Marlins' young hitters. It will be up to the young Fish to adjust. If they do, a "sophomore slump" is not a problem. If they don't, it will be a painful learning experience.

2. Will the young pitchers be able to duplicate or better last season's results?

The young pitchers are the backbone of the organization. The problem for the 2007 season already is starting to rear its ugly head. Can they stay healthy?

Let's look at each pitcher:

Anibal Sanchez ended last season with 200 innings—his previous high was 136 innings. When a young arm is extended for the first time, as I'm sure you know, it often fails to perform to the same level the following year. Sanchez already has been shut down for a short period during spring training with shoulder issues.

Scott Olsen threw 187 innings in 2006. His previous high was also 136 innings. Olsen ended the season better than he began it, pitching-wise. If he can keep his mechanics in check, he should be fine.

Ricky Nolasco threw only 140 innings last season but ended up hitting the proverbial wall in early September and was removed from the rotation. Nolasco was going to compete for the 2007 closer's role until injuries to teammates made it necessary for him to rejoin the starting rotation.

Josh Johnson ended the season on the DL and even after a good offseason throwing regimen, he already has been shut down for a nerve injury in his pitching arm and will miss at least the first two months of the season.

Sergio Mitre is finally back with the squad after shoulder inflammation kept him out most of the season. He has looked good in spring training and is building arm strength.

Bottom line: If they can stay healthy they won't have any problem matching or bettering last year's results. But that "if" is really big.

3. How's the middle relief looking for 2007?

Middle relief has been a real problem for the Marlins for the last two seasons. Management addressed the problem by making two trades during the offseason. It added Kevin Gregg, Henry Owens and Matt Lindstrom. Owens and Lindstrom are rookies who consistently throw their fastballs in the upper 90s.

Taylor Tankersley, who was thought to be the leading candidate for the closer's role, has shoulder inflammation and is doubtful to start the season with the club. Tankersley's injury leaves Renyel Pinto as the lefty in the bullpen.

Just as every spring, the standard statement is "the Marlins made some additions this offseason and it really improved the pen."

We will see. One thing I do know, the bullpen is younger than the 2006 edition and the lack of experience could be a problem. But then again, the added experience didn't help middle relief much last season.

[Editor's note: This story was submitted before the Marlins acquired Jorge Julio from the Diamondbacks].

4. Will Miguel Cabrera and/or Dontrelle Willis be traded before the 2008 season?

No. Quit asking.

Every indication from the front office is the Marlins will retain the two through their arbitration years. Both players will become free agents after the 2009 season and the team is happy to go year to year until that point.

What happens after the 2009 season depends on whether the Marlins are able to land a stadium deal. If a stadium isn't in the works, both probably will be allowed to walk or be traded before the end of the 2009 season. If a stadium is in the team's future, it will try to sign both of them for longer term contracts.

5. Is a stadium deal finally in the works?

Uh, maybe.

A retractable-roof stadium is funded for all but $30 million. Tax rebate legislation is in both houses of the state legislature to will cover the difference.

The Marlins have been this far before. Last year the rebate actually passed the Senate but died on the floor of the House when the clock ran out on the legislative session.

Everyone is cautiously optimistic but they have been here before and it didn't happen. Maybe it will this year.

The Marlins are going to face a lot of hurdles and unknowns during the 2007 season. Some of the now second-year players should improve on last season's output, while others will regress.

The team's strongest point is that they are very talented. Maybe just as important, they don't believe they should regress.

The Marlins should finish fourth or even third in a really good year in the NL East, with a record very similar to last season's. The best guess is that they will end the season around 81-81.

The Marlins are still on the steep part of the learning curve and will be going through growing pains all season. However, as Marlins fans, we can look forward to another fun season with "our unpredictable kids." The "doing great things" seasons are still a couple of years away. Assuming no career-ending injuries, the "doing great things" seasons will happen.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Craig Strain 2007-03-27T04:05:15+00:00