The Hardball Times -- Derek Ambrosino http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-23T08:50:15+00:00 The hardest thing http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-hardest-thing/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-hardest-thing/#When:07:12:15 Miguel Cabrera right now—owners would line up around the block. But, the action that requires the most self-discipline is to sell high on a known stud. But, objectively, it’s the proper move.

Let’s think through a rational approach to trading Miguel Cabrera.

I think it’s agreed that if Cabrera finishes this season at 110/40/130/.330, he’d have justified a first overall pick—even if somebody else winds up as the top overall producer.

Cabrera, as great as he is, is essentially a known quantity and when it comes to known quantities, we can think of potential production lines in terms of probability. An “average” Cabrera season represents the most probable outcome, and as you travel away from that mark—in either direction—the probability of such a season decreases. I’d consider the hypothetical season line I proposed above as slightly toward the good side of average for Miggy— maybe half a standard deviation to the plus, if I had to estimate. Now, here’s the question: Does his start to this season change those expectations?

Essentially, it does not. Miguel Cabrera is still a known quantity. There’s was a non-negligible probability for him to produce a .350/45/150 season before the season started, and that probability still exists. But, the fact that he had this torrid first quarter that has him on pace for a season out of the 1930s doesn’t necessarily make the +2 standard deviation more likely than the average season, or more likely than such a season was on draft night.

So, while it is exciting and very tempting to think that Cabrera is in the midst of re-calibrating his ceiling, at the age of 30 it’s more likely that he’s produced 35 pdercent of his full output in 25 percent of the elapsed time frame. That’s the essence of selling high.

Further, if Cabrera does wind up posting a significantly better-than-average season, all he’d have to do to achieve that would be to be his “normal self” for the rest of the season. To have a fantastic season, by his own standards, all he really needs to do is be 100 percent of himself for three quarters of the season after having been more like 120 percent of himself for another quarter.

So, the takeaway here is that the two most likely outcomes for Cabrera throughout the rest of 2013 are that he is either his average self, or less than that. If you are selling him, you are most likely selling a quantity worse than what you acquired on draft day, or most cautiously, the same quantity you acquired.

However, one would have to assume that his value on the market is higher than ever now. And, this is why, as hard as it may be, the right thing to do today is to sell. Solicit offers at the very least!

Part of the reason Cabrera owners are reticent to trade him is centered on the potential failure of the players for whom they trade more than a relatively irrational expectation of future super-Miggy production. Cabrera is probably the most consistent producer in the game and a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I’m sympathetic to this line of thought. Reliability is an important facet of a player from a fantasy perspective, but it is a hand that shouldn’t be overplayed.

Generally speaking, I would not suggest swinging for the fences when trying to trade Cabrera. You want to increase production while not substantially increasing volatility. Therefore, I would not simply look for the pre-ranked top-25 player who is just having the worst season and blindly try to add him. If you are going to try for the biggest elite player turnaround possible, I’d suggest qualifying that strategy by looking for the player who best fits this archetype: the most historically consistent player still in the neighborhood of physical prime whose early season swoon has the weakest external explanation.

Some of the highest pre-ranked players off to bad starts don’t necessarily fit that mold well. Albert Pujols comes close, but it seems he’s less than 100 percent physically more often nowadays. Either a DL stint or playing through lingering pain are harbingers of disappointment.

Josh Hamilton fits the bill somewhat too, but I don’t think he’s been very consistent. His two best seasons have been somewhat anomalous. Last year, he posted career high home run and RBI numbers, and in his MVP season he put up an uncharacteristically high batting average. Plus, he’s been injured fairly regularly. He usually finds a way to be elite, but it’s hard to determine what to expect in terms of how he’s going to get there, which is a problem from a team-building standpoint.

Matt Kemp kind of fits the bill, but is coming off an injury. And so on, and so forth.

If you are comfortable with the rebound potential of any of those players, they make fine targets, but I wouldn’t stay away from a trade simply because you can’t easily identify a perfect target who has been a major disappointment. Another strategy would be to ask for a pretty reliable high-level player who is chugging along only a bit below expectation and then try to add on top of that.

Owners of Joey Votto or Andrew McCutchen or Adrian Beltre are probably not dancing in the streets right now, but these players have been fine thus far. Perhaps there’s some “value” to be gained in adding those players, and you can add an additional highly useful player into the deal. That’s a second way to win. If you were to ask for one of those players plus that team’s best closer or second best (or in some cases, best) starter, you could probably get it.

At the very least, Cabrera is so hot right now that there’s almost no offer you could propose to another owner that he’d consider offensively bad. Announce on the message board that you are entertaining offers. Create a bidding war. You can always say no.

Do something! Create action. Derive information.

There are likely owners in your league willing to overpay for Cabrera, but the burden of drawing them out is on his owner’s shoulders.

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Last week, in my shallowest league, a cold Dan Uggla surfaced on the waiver wire. I hadn’t entered the store of available players to look for a power-hitting middle infielder, or any middle infielder at all, actually. I had just stopped in to browse the spot starting pitchers section. But, like when you are in one of those discount stores and you see an item from a brand normally too high-end to show up at that store, my interests were certainly piqued. Now, this is not the nicest model the second baseman brand makes, and as mentioned, I had no intent to pick up a middle infielder, but the allure of discounted luxury goods can be alluring… even if there’s a chance this Dan Uggla is an irregular. So, I picked him up.

But, did I make the right decision? Is it a good idea to pick up a player simply because he represents a bargain?

In some cases, I think there is a very strong argument for this philosophy – amass talent and decide what to do with it later. And, if you are going to employ this strategy, early in the season is the time to do it. However, the other variable with this strategy is whether your team has current glaring needs. In my case, my offense has been stellar but my pitching has been atrocious. Beyond that, I’m falling a bit too far behind the pace in innings. Even if I feel that much of my staff will come around in the long run (and, I do), I still need the flexibility of that roster spot to take advantage of decent waiver wire options matched up against the Astros and Marlins.

So, I did what your favorite rapper or pop star does with the $8,000 outfit from his/her video. I used my Dan Uggla once or twice and then I returned it. After dropping it off, I bought a lovely start from Nick Tepesch against the Astros and then a productive day from Lyle Overbay on the travel day. I was hoping Uggla would remain available, and allow me to use him regularly on those travel days, when I typically look for spot bats as opposed to spot arms. He may have even convinced me to drop or trade somebody else to make room for him as a regular part of my wardrobe. But, unlike when actually shopping, I couldn’t hide a sweater in the housewares section so I could buy it next time I returned to the store. So, a day or two later, somebody else picked up Uggla.

At the end of the day, I’m comfortable with my decision to prioritize need over value in a vacuum. I have way more room to improve in pitching and need to try to augment my rotation via the wire, either by repeated wise plays or by catching lightening in a bottle on that end. The name of the game is to earn the most points, not accumulate the most talent or value.

How do you balance need vs. value when combing the available players in your league?

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That said, each year, a number of players come out of nowhere and stick as top-25 or top-50 players. Today, I’ll look the offensive players currently in the top 25, but who were projected outside the top-100 and choose which I think has the best chance of retaining elite value for the full season.

My current choices are Chris Davis, Coco Crisp, Nate McLouth, Dexter Fowler, John Buck, and Wilin Rosario.

McLouth does have some potential and Buck does have legit power, but they will likely be borderline roster-able in 12-team mixed leagues by year’s end. I’d sell high on either without question.

Some expected big things from Rosario, but there are still a few things that worry me, mainly his plate discipline. I wouldn’t be in a rush to trade him, but I’d entertain offers. He should finish as a top five catcher, and that’s nothing to sneeze at. Even as an elite catching option, it’s difficult for catchers to break into the very top of the season rankings among all players.

When it comes to Chris Davis, the most impressive thing I’ve seen from him this year has been improved plate discipline. We need to see if this continues for the season—I’m not yet convinced. As of now, I still expect basically the same thing I did coming into the season. But, if the walk rate holds for a few more weeks, I may have to reassess Davis and his sublime power

Coco Crisp is a good player who has been beset by injuries and had his production capped by hitting atop some weak offenses. There’s no reason why a healthy Crisp can’t flirt with being a top-75 player and provide 40 or more steals. But, retaining top-25 value is a reach. He’s unlikely to hit above .280 and is below average in homers and RBI.

This leaves us with my choice among this group—Dexter Fowler. I was incredibly high on Fowler coming into this season and have reaped the rewards in the leagues in which I nabbed him. There’s a lot to like about Fowler. He’s displayed very good on-base skills both in the minors and in the bigs and has consistently upped his ISO each year as a pro. Is this the year that a significant number of his doubles and triples become homers? It’s certainly within the realm of possibility. Though, I don’t expect him to continue to hit homers at this clip, 17-22 dingers is quite possible, as he enters his prime (age 27) and shows continued development. Also promising is that five of eight early season long balls have come away from Coors.

The other area that would really boost his game would be an improvement as a base stealer. Fowler certainly has the speed to be a very good one, but he has never seemed to get the technique down pat. He’s stolen as many as 43 bases in the minors, but never at a very good success rate. In the majors, he’s ran less often each year, as his inability to turn his speed into highly successful stealing revealed itself. Still, he’s three for four early in 2013 and could still put a total in the mid-teens.

As long as Fowler continues to get on at a high rate, he’ll have plenty of chances to both swipe a few bags and score a bunch of runs. An end season line of something like .300/90/20/70/15 does not seem unrealistic at all, and that’s just outside top-25 production—maybe top 40 or so. I would not move Fowler for anything but an established stud.

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Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Derek Ambrosino 2013-04-25T22:54:15+00:00 Crisis management http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/avoiding-common-crisis-pitfalls/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/avoiding-common-crisis-pitfalls/#When:07:01:15 endowment effect. An oversimplification of this phenomenon is that one tends to overvalue what he holds and undervalue what others hold. When dealing with crisis management, anything that prevents you from acting decisively and quickly is especially detrimental. In this column I’ll discuss a few strategic and mental pitfalls to avoid when dealing with a crisis.

The young fantasy season has already yielded some injuries that would reach the level of “crisis” for owners. From an owner’s perspective, perhaps the most detrimental injury thus far has been that of Jose Reyes. Not only is Reyes one of the most valuable commodities in the fantasy universe, but he also plays a shallow position and was likely relied upon by his owners to carry a tremendous load in the stolen base category. A player of his nature is among the most irreplaceable assets. Still, Reyes owners are now forced to make lemonade.

The standard endowment effect may even be enhanced in the Reyes situation. In addition to glorifying Reyes and shortchanging other options, an owner may be tempted to anchor his expectations for a replacement to the elite level player he had in the first place. This is a problematic thought to which one must not succumb—you are not entitled to a new superstar simply because you lost one. Following such faulty logic will hurt you in two ways.

It is important to realize that one must, in the immortal words of John Wooden, be quick, but don’t hurry. If you limit yourself to having to find ways to get a Troy Tulowitzki or Starlin Castro to fill that spot, you drastically foreclose your options and lengthen the amount of time it will require to work a deal—presuming you are even able to do so.

The best thing to do is to take a solid player at your deepest position and look to trade him for a solid shortstop. That’s the first manifestation of faulty thinking in a crisis—the longer it takes to act, the longer the crisis will severely impact operations. Acting quickly means minimizing the amount of time you will bear a replacement level player in your active roster. It is also best if you can find a player who approximates the skill set of Reyes—maybe somebody like Elvis Andrus.

This brings me to the other pitfall of miring oneself in the pursuit of another superstar. Other elite level players may be fantastic assets, but they don’t necessarily fill the same role and balance your team as it was originally constructed. Adding Tulowitzki would be fantastic, but it would probably lead your team to having a power surplus without addressing the speed deficiency.

Another strategy might be to take a player who is highly valuable, but not a five-category player and try to redistribute that value more evenly across the shortstop position and the needed categories. I’d guess that the closest Jose Reyes clone out there would be Jimmy Rollins. So, you might want to take one of your best players and try to trade for Rollins, plus a poor man’s version of the player you offer. Maybe Prince Fielder was your first round pick and Reyes your second, and you try to trade Fielder for Rollins and a fifth-to-eighth-round first baseman.

If your options are not so nearly laid out, you may need to retool at multiple positions. This can be necessary at times, but I try hard to avoid relying on plans that add multiple layers of variables. Each trade you require to make your team whole is essentially an assumption that you will be able to execute a trade—and trades can be hard to execute.

So, if you turn a speedy top-of-the-order shortstop into a middle-of-the-order shortstop with no speed, you now are essentially presented with the same challenge again—flip another player in the reverse direction—before you are back where you need to be. Again, sometimes circumstances force us into difficult choices, but a cascade of moves to retool is always harder to execute than you convince yourself it will be.

These are obviously all hypothetical situations, but the underlying idea is that you need to do what is practically most useful as opposed to what you might be tempted to want to do psychologically.



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Similarly, for those I don’t buy, I’m not implying the player will be a bust, just that I see no reason to adjust preseason expectations for the player in light of him having a hot start.


Hot starts I’m buying


Dexter Fowler
Fowler wasn’t too far from breaking out last year. He put up double digit homers and steals and a .389 OBP. Having hit in the lower third of the lineup in roughly a quarter of his games, that stellar OBP translated into only 72 runs. When hitting in the one-two slots, where he is locked into in 2013, Fowler scored runs at a clip of roughly 90 per 162.

At age 27, Fowler should be entering his prime and I expected an increase in power—his SLG has increased each year of his career. Coming into the season, Yahoo ranked Fowler as their 52nd best outfield-eligible player, but by the end of the season, I predict he will be more of a top-30 outfielder and top-100 player.

Shin-Soo Choo
Since he was pre-ranked by Yahoo at 77 and 23rd among outfielders, I can’t say Choo was disrespected coming into the season. At his peak in 2009/2010, Choo was a legitimate five-category asset and a top-50 player. Hitting leadoff this season, it will be hard for him to put up above average RBIs, so he may now be more of a four-category player.

But he is still set up with a good chance to have the most valuable fantasy season of his career. Playing his home games in the Cincinnati will boost his home run totals, and hitting atop a very good Reds lineup should position him and his career .383 OBP to score more than 100 runs, a milestone reached by only 12 players in 2012. If he remains healthy, Choo could finish as a top-15 outfielder and a top 40 overall value.

Hot starts I’m not buying


Chris Davis
I don’t have anything against Chris Davis. I think he is a fine fantasy first baseman with a pretty well-defined skill set. I don’t think his scorching start is a complete anomaly; the man did hit 33 homers last year. But this column is about trying to determine whether players are likely to produce well beyond preseason expectations, and I don’t see enough evidence from Davis to indicate this to be the case—and certainly not from today forward, as we’ve most likely already seen his best week of the season.

In a very small 2013 sample size, he is striking out less often and walking more frequently. But, over his career he’s struck out in almost 31 pdercent of his plate appearances and walked in only 6 percent. I need to see the trend of this first week continue for a while longer before I anoint him a changed man and reevaluate his ceiling. I’d say to trade him now if you can, after having already reaped three weeks' worth of production in one.

Justin Masterson
Masterson has previously tempted fans to think he’s capable of taking the leap from just a guy into a legitimate mound asset. To kick of 2013, he’s been teasing fans again, but I’m not buying it. While he has struck out a batter per inning, he’s also walked seven in 13 frames—control has traditionally been one of Masterson’s problems.

Further, looking into the PITCHf/x data, he doesn’t seem to be doing anything particularly differently than that which has produced mediocrity in years past. The biggest difference from previous years is that he is throwing his slider a bit more and getting good results. It remains to be seen whether its efficacy can be maintained if hitters adjust and look for it a bit more. In a standard 12-team mixed league, I predict Masterson will spend time on a number of different teams as well as on the waiver wire in the course of the season.

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Concerning cold starts


Salvador Perez
Perez has been the recipient of considerable superlatives from many around the Kansas City Royals organization. He burst onto the scene last year and tore the cover off the ball before injuring himself. This left many fantasy owners eager to own Perez in 2013, expecting a real offensive star at the catcher position.

The first week of 2013 has not been kind to Perez though, who is sporting an ugly .200/.226/.233 line. If this keeps up, he’ll be demoted from the four/five slot in the batting order. One thing I worry about with Perez is that throughout his minor league career, he was not the power threat many investing in him have pegged him. Granted, we are talking about seasons when Perez was 18–20 years old, but his profile seemed more like a free swinger higher average type.

I don’t blame his owners for rolling the dice, but I would not be surprised if he struggles on and off throughout the entire season and finishes up being borderline waiver wire material in standard leagues.

Jason Kipnis
2012 was a tale of two halves for the 55th pre-ranked fantasy player of 2013. In the final 69 games of the season, Kipnis posted a .232/.322/.328 line, with 33 runs, 27 RBIs, three homers, and 11 steals. There aren’t too many players pre-ranked as a top-five option at their position who spent half of 2012 as a replacement-level player.

I deliberately avoided Kipnis is my drafts, given his price, and if I were a Kipnis owner and could get close to preseason value for him, I’d jump ship. He rode a surprising 2011 call-up into a great first half of 2012 and is now coming back to earth. I’d be quite surprised if he finishes the season ranked in the top 100.

What, me worry?


R.A. Dickey.
Dickey is certainly a player about whom there are varying opinions and, therefore, different owners probably have different expectations for him. While I did not expect him to repeat his 2012 Cy Young season, he did have a three-year track record of being highly effective and I was expecting a top 12-18 starter. I am not ready to jump off that position yet. Knuckleball pitchers will take their share of lumps and have their share of bad outings. As long as Dickey gets a handle on his control—he’s been uncharacteristically wild in his first two outings—he’ll settle in and be quite valuable.

Mike Trout
I am covering Trout here only because there was a segment of owners who did not believe him to be a legitimate No. 1 overall pick. One week into the season, he hasn’t stolen a base or hit a longball and has scored only three times. Don’t fret though. The skill set is still there and even with a decent amount of regression, it’s hard to see Trout not turning in a top-five season.

Now is the time to start knocking on the door of Trout owners. Those who selected him begrudgingly on the word of others and against their personal inclinations may be feeling skeptical and vindicated by this start and may be looking for a mulligan in their first round pick. Offer a late first-rounder or early second-rounder for him… it can’t hurt.

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While many top-flight middle relievers can have value to a team, their skill sets and production levels are largely replaceable on the wire. It is the path to closing that most significantly differentiates similar options. Here are a few things I consider when evaluating this.

  • Stability and skill of current closer. This is the most formidable obstacle facing a middle-reliever looking to close: Is the current closer likely to lose his job because of poor performance?


  • Skill level of middle reliever. Is this player actually better than, or at least comparable to, the player currently closing? If he gets the job, can he keep it? Is the player good enough to push for consideration as a closer even if current closer merely falters, but does not full-on implode? Is the player good enough to have value to your team without closing?


  • Injury history of current closer. Injuries are tough to predict, but all things being equal a pitcher behind Huston Street is more likely to inherit a job than one behind Jonathan Papelbon.


  • Competition within bullpen for inheritance. At times, a team may have a shaky closing situation, but it is unclear who is next in line for the job. The best situation for a would-be closer is to be the clear, single successor.


  • Likelihood of trades. This will become more important as the season progresses. If the incumbent is a trade candidate, that boosts the value the player next in line.


Ranking these players at any given time is not an exact science, so I look at these posts as an opportunity to promote discussion. Also as a disclaimer, I’m avoiding players on the disabled list (i.e., Ryan Madson). I will include a player currently involved in closer-by-committee situations only if I see his emergence as a singular owner of the job as likely. Remember, this column is about players most likely to see a drastic boost in value, not just options to vulture a handful of saves.

And, away we go.

1. Kyuji Fujikawa. Fujikawa averaged almost 12 K/9 in his career in Japan and hasn’t posted an ERA above 2.01 in the last eight seasons. Carlos Marmol is a disaster waiting to happen and failed to nail down the first save opportunity of the Chicago Cubs season. This is likely to be the first non-injury-related closing change this season.

2.Kenley Jansen. I know Brandon League has a big contract and Jansen has some heart issues, but my impression is that people are overthinking this one. The Dodgers are trying to win and they don’t care about money; talent will win out sooner than later. Additionally, Jansen’s ridiculous strikeout numbers make him among the most valuable non-closers.

3. Ryan Cook. I really like Ryan Cook. Grant Balfour is a quality pitcher, but at the age of 35, I don’t totally trust his health or performance. On the other hand, Cook is an emerging bullpen stud.

4. David Robertson The man with the high socks is stuck behind the greatest closer in the history of the game, but Mariano Rivera is 43 and coming off an injury. Rafael Soriano is in Washington, and Robertson is slated to be the man if Rivera goes down again. Robertson also has a multi-year record of production worthy of mixed-league ownership even without a closing gig.

5. David Hernandez. Here’s a relatively unknown K-monster with a smidge of closer experience situated behind a very good incumbent with an injury history. J.J. Putz has shed a bit of his injury-risk reputation over the past few seasons, so it’s possible that I am overestimating his risk, but Hernandez is a good bet for 85–100 punch-outs out of the bullpen regardless, so that’s a pretty solid base to fall back on.

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In a typical 5X5 league, saves are worth 10 Percent of the overall points available to each team, so the category certainly can’t be ignored. It’s also among the categories easiest to ensure high team performance if an owner prioritizes it. Instead of embracing the extreme philosophy of not paying for saves, perhaps it is better to look at some principles that will help you spend wisely.

Don’t pay for saves—pay for skills


When I think about not paying for saves, I think about the “don’t” in two ways. First, don’t consider saves as the inherent value of the player. Instead, pay for is the cross-category production a player will give you while occupying a closer role. The substantial value of elite closers is not rooted in their save total, but in their extremely valuable production on a per-inning basis.

Elite closers do wonders for a team’s ERA and WHIP while racking up Ks with outstanding efficiency. That is what is worth paying for. Because of the role the player occupies, he will accumulate needed saves in the process. In this respect, the idea of not paying for saves is less an absolute and guidance akin to “don’t chase wins” for starting pitchers.

The inverse way to interpret the idea of not paying for saves is equally valid. Don’t ascribe disproportionate value to a player simply because he can earn saves. I’ve written in the past about how it is a bad sign for a fantasy team if it must rely on too many “specialists”—players who contribute significantly in one category, but are a liability in several others. So, perhaps it is more accurate to say, don’t pay for only saves.

Don’t be fooled by past randomness


Several years ago, Derek Carty did some work to try to determine whether it was possible to predict which players would get the most save opportunities and the most saves. His conclusion backs what many savvy fantasy players have felt intuitively: Saves are not particularly predictable. Therefore, something else NOT to pay for is the perception that any specific player will have a significant advantage over his peers because his team will generate a uniquely high number of save opportunities. This is another nuance of the don’t pay for saves mantra: Base your investments on what is predictable.

What we do know is that saves are generated by pitchers with opportunity to fill the closer role and the skills to convert the opportunities received. This leads us to want to pay for pitchers with a firm hold on a job (either by skills advantage over the team’s other options, or by virtue of a large contract) and the underlying skills to be a highly effective pitcher. Don’t overthink this.

Pay the cover, but skip the VIP access


Using what we know from the two points above, the best way to derive value from our closer spend is to use the tier system and let the value fall into your lap.

When it comes to closers there’s usually a small group of elite options, a handful of corrosive situations and liabilities, and then a large chunk of B and C students that fall in the middle. Often, these players are very similar and it pays to look at them interchangeably for purposes of team building.

Acquire the cheapest players within the tiers of your target and basically just hope that random variation goes your way. If you get health and stability, you should compete in the category without much collateral damage. And, if you get some good luck on the opportunity and performance variation sides, you’ll be set up for a great run.

Of course, all the other general rules on player selection apply as well. If you have what you feel is a valid reason to bump up or demote a specific player, do so. But, generally speaking, while it’s always good to have an opinion, closers represent an area where it can be good to let the market drive your decision more than it should when filling other positions.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Derek Ambrosino 2013-03-27T07:27:15+00:00 Put your money where your opinions are http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/put-your-money-where-your-opinions-are/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/put-your-money-where-your-opinions-are/#When:07:01:15
Whatever your strategy, the common goal is to have control of who winds up on your roster. Therefore, one of the drivers of your budget allocation strategy should be to put your money where your opinions are. If you have strong preferences among the high-priced players, spend early and freely to get your choice. But if you prefer to have your pick of sleepers and later-round players, make sure you save enough money to do so.

One of the trappings of the barstool fantasy chatter is that you may feel as if you have to have very strong opinions on every player, and particularly on the marquee players. I reject this notion. Counter-intuitively, one of the hallmarks of a well-studied owner is that some decisions don’t matter as much as others. It’s okay to decide you want a top-tier first baseman, but not have super strong preferences among them.

In an auction league, you have to back your opinion with dollars, and each dollar you put up to acquire your choice of player should represent your relative strength of opinion in favor of that player versus a counterpart. Keeping this in mind helps elucidate the value of ranking players in tiers or grouping similar types of players.

For example, while I see both Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Gonzalez individually, I also see them similarly as cornerstone outfield assets. In an auction setting, if you were to ask me which one I like better, my answer would probably be "whichever one I can get cheaper.” I’d rather have the $4 (or whatever) between their costs than have my pick of the two.

The reason why I often decide “I’d rather have the money” is that the leverage of each extra dollar you hold increases as the overall pot of money in owners’ hands dwindles (provided you don’t wildly mismanage your funds). So, the dollar you save by making the frugal choice among the elite players can give you substantial control over the player pool in the middle and later rounds. If Cutch and Cargo have seasons as expected, having one as opposed to the other is unlikely to be the reason you win, but correctly identifying a $2 breakout star turns exponential profits.

All things equal, I usually prefer to have the extra dollar to pay $2 for my sleeper than the choice between two similar elite options I both like.

This is not to say that the examples I used in this post represent the only, or the absolute correct, way to allocate your funds. You may have a very strong opinion on some of the highest ranked players, or even a strong opinion between two seemingly similar players. If that’s the case, vote with your dollars. I simply want to reiterate that sometimes the decisions made between high-end players have actually the least impact overall. If you can avoid losing your league on your three most expensive players, you’ll be in a position to contend.

When studying the player pool, make note of your strongest opinions. Consider whether they cluster among high-end, mid-tier, or low-price players. From there, make sure you use your “discretionary” dollars in the areas of the auction where your opinions are strongest, not simply where the prices are highest.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Derek Ambrosino 2013-03-19T07:01:15+00:00