http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2012 2012-05-26T10:48:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-real-replacement-level-of-starting-pitching/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-real-replacement-level-of-starting-pitching/#When:05:26:15
What I did isn’t really out of the ordinary; I simply placed an extremely high price on one of my team’s better hitters if I was going to be receiving a starting pitcher in return. Many of us have a sense that pitchers are harder to trade—or fetch less—than hitters. They do. Or, they should.

Most simply, trade value comes down to replacement level. If you play in a daily league with unlimited, or liberally limited, roster moves and are in need of a starting pitcher (as we are), the replacement level starter can actually be pretty high, provided you are willing to exert some effort and display a bit of ingenuity. Elevating the replacement level of a position player is much more difficult.

While one may tempted to look at the top few starters floating on his league’s waiver wire to define a replacement level starter, that’s not the reality for the shrewd owner. Let’s try to estimate what the real value of a replacement starter can easily be with a little effort and planning.

Let’s assume for the sake of this article that 180 innings is a reasonable target to expect from each pitcher in the starting corps. This works out to about 30 innings a month. Remember, nobody says that those innings must all come from the same player. If you can find one opportunity to spot start a waiver wire pitcher per week and fill that spot with a middle reliever the rest of the time, you should be able to piece together a high quality pitching line. (This is easier, operationally, when all roster spots are P instead of RP-, SP-specific; one of oft-stated my pet peeves!)

I’m not a hardcore researcher-writer, so I’m going to pluck numbers here for the purposes of illustration—there are so many variations of league size that calculating the average stats of a waiver wire pitcher would be an exercise in the arbitrary anyway. However, in a 12-team mixed league, it’s not unreasonable to think that your standard omni-available pitcher might have a skill level of something like 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, six K/9 and one win per 3.5 starts.

You have to find only one opportunity a week when you think one of any of these pitchers, against various opponents, with various skill sets, and in various run environments can perform above his average. It’s not that much of a stretch to think you can coach these pitchers up to a line more along the lines of 4.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 6.5 K/P and one win per three starts. Of course, depending on the choices you make, you could wind up with better rates and lower Ks or the reverse. Frankly, that’s one of the benefits of this approach as well; it allows you to chase what you most need. Though to be fair, if the alternative is trading for a quality pitcher, that player should be able to help you everywhere.

Proceeding, it’s not too difficult to find waiver wire middle relievers who post numbers more along the lines of 2.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 and one W per 15 innings pitched.

At the end of the day, you are looking at six innings from your starter per week and three innings from your reliever. This should net you somewhere between 27 and 33 innings per month. For simplicity’s sake, let’s take the mathematical middle and mete out 30 innings of this composition “replacement pitcher” with a ratio of two to one starter to reliever innings and extrapolate that across a six-month season.

IP: 180
ERA: 3.66
WHIP 1.28
K: 130
W: 11

That’s not bad for a free additional starter, right? That line doesn’t hurt you anywhere!

So, if I can get this for free, what would it take for me to give up, say a healthy Paul Konerko? A lot more than Tommy Hanson, right? And, if I told you I probably still wouldn’t do it even for David Price, you might think I’m taking it too far, but I really wouldn’t be acting so unreasonably, correct?

These names may or not be random.

My free pitcher may be a 10 or 15 percent drop from a pitcher like Price, with some additional variability regarding wins. For either the star or the composite replacement, win are difficult to predict.

However, when the most attractive first basemen on the wire are players like Justin Smoak, there is just very little chance I can find 85-90 percent of Paul Konerko in the free agent pool. Maybe I can really micromanage meticulously and elevate my replacement level production, but that’s ton more effort than just grabbing one of a dozen relievers and keeping an eye out for decent pitchers facing the Pirates, Mariners or Padres (preferably at Petco).

There’s a second benefit of filling my needed pitching slot this way as opposed to trading a premium bat for a quality arm. My injury risk from that pitching spot is nil. I’m not relying on any single pitcher. I simply need to find roughly four quality spot starting opportunities a month and select from a plentiful pool of capable set-up arms. If I trade for Price and he gets hurt, I gave up Konerko for nothing, or for very little.

The last point may not be totally fair, as I still hold the injury risk of Konerko. So, if he gets hurt and I didn’t trade him for Price, I’m left holding the bag. But, the point stands. Remember, I’m not trading Konerko for Price, but trading the difference between Konerko and his replacement for the difference between Price and his.

One final point regarding this theory: While it may be intuitive to think that you are exposing yourself to a greater degree of expected variance in performance by using a conglomerate of pitchers and therefore not allowing any individual performer the opportunity for his performance to normalize, that is not the case. Your starter-by-committee has a cumulative expected performance as does the individual pitcher. Any greater likelihood of variance would be due to particular pitchers having larger individual variances in expected performance; the fact that you are using one player versus 15 or 30 is essentially irrelevant.

In conclusion, it can be considered reasonable to highly value elite hitting and demand others "overpay” if they are selling you pitching. Of course, if you are hoarding hitting such that you are amassing surplus production that doesn’t influence your point totals, then you need to redistribute your assets. But, remember, it isn’t too difficult to put together a quite serviceable replacement level pitcher from the scraps on the wire, without giving away anything but a floating roster spot.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Derek Ambrosino 2012-05-23T05:26:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/mythbusting-closer-edition/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/mythbusting-closer-edition/#When:08:38:15
To begin with, not all those who lost their jobs or suffered injury did so under similar circumstances. Also, not all of those who lost their jobs were particularly costly acquisitions to their owners in the first place. Actually, there are a lot of factors mitigating the simplicity of the “I told you so” message from the "don’t pay for closers" camp.

Let’s first think about the context behind some of the losses of jobs by closers.

Mariano Rivera’s situation is fittingly unique, as his career and stability from a fantasy perspective has been unique as well. Even the most staunch advocate of not paying for saves would grant that Mo was as sure a thing as any player on the board. (Ironically, his offensive counterpart in this realm may have been the previously unflappable Albert Pujols.)

I think we can all agree that Rivera’s injury falls into the category of freak injury to star player with no pre-draft red flags, health-wise. What happened to Rivera could have just as easily happened to a position player; his position has no relevance so his case should not enter this discussion. This general situation applies to others as well, but I’ve separated Rivera because of his singular record of consistently other-worldly performance

On the flip side of Rivera’s rock solid elite stature, we’ve seen many closers with shaky or unestablished records lose their jobs, somewhat predictably. Most likely, few of these players cost their owners considerably in the first place. Players who fall into this camp include Javy Guerra, Grant Balfour, Hector Santiago, and (perhaps soon to come) Frank Francisco.

For these players, the considerable chance of not keeping the job all season was factored into their preseason prices. One can’t exactly feel shocked, awed, and cheated out of their investment in these scenarios.

The next group of players includes those with red flaga who suffered injuries. Brad Lidge, Andrew Bailey and Huston Street miss time due to injury almost every season. There were known concerns about Brian Wilson’s health before most drafts. For these players too, the risks based on their histories were reflected in their prices.

Moving on, we come to players who got injured more unexpectedly. This group includes Sergio Santos, Kyle Farnsworth, Ryan Madson and Joakim Soria (if your draft occurred before those injuries), and Carlos Marmol.

Some of these players will return and may also reclaim their jobs and put together decent seasons. It’s too early to tell. But, the point here is that unless one can establish that closers are more prone to injury than other players, these players were priced fairly and if they disappoint, it will be due to forces beyond their control. Injury is a possibility for all players, and the fact that it may seem injuries occurred to closers at a greater rate than to other players isn’t relevant unless you can establish that this isn’t random.

When you account for all the prior groups of players, you are left with only a few who have lost their jobs despite preseason expectation that they will be healthy and productive. The players who fall into this group are Jordan Walden and Heath Bell. Perhaps Carlos Marmol was on this path too, but if his performance was related to his subsequent DL stint his case is inconclusive at best.

So, when thinking about the volatility of the position, excluding injury, we see that there hasn’t been the string of “busts” that this dominant narrative of a nonstop closing carousel might lead us to believe. But, wait, there’s more.

Many of the players who lost their jobs, either due to performance or injury, still have reasonable likelihoods of regaining the closer role and ultimately earning their draft price or close to it. Included among these players are all the legitimate “busts” thus far, including Marmol.

Also countering the conclusion of the "don’t pay for saves" choir is the fact that—just like every year—many of the cheap preseason options are turning in perfectly serviceable to even star-caliber seasons. Jim Johnson, Brett Myers, Jonathan Broxton and Brandon League have been great. Matt Capps has been serviceable. Joe Nathan is looking something like his former self. If you spent $2 on Grant Balfour, you’re upset now. But, if you spent those same $2 on Jim Johnson, you are loving life.

Meanwhile, many of the heirs to these vacated closing positions don’t appear to have either long-term windows of opportunity or the skill set to prove valuable commodities for the rest of the season. In order for the “don’t pay for saves” argument to hold, not only does there need to be considerable turnover in the position, but that turnover needs to produce valuable players free for the taking. Even if the first half of this equation has been achieved, I don’t think Rafael Dolis, Scott Downs and Steve Cishek qualify as the latter.

Of course none of this means that paying for saves has proven to be a particularly sound investment this year, but the way the season has played out thus far points to this being the case because of circumstantial occurrences and not inherently flawed strategy.

I also have somewhat distinct opinions on “paying for saves” in auction leagues as opposed to draft leagues, but that’s an issue I’ll touch on in its own column in the future.

Rounding up, the question we’re left with now is whether there is actionable information to be gained from this argument. Along those lines, I’d say that the developments in the closer position this year may affect different GMs differently. Some may fear the perceived instability and question the value of their own closers, leading to opportunities for acquisition. Others may see the instability as a reason to double down on their higher end assets, resulting in increased perceived value of the Jonathan Papelbons and Craig Kimbrels of the position. So, depending on the owner, the overall dynamic at the position may either open or close the market.

The bigger takeaway, however, is that many of the displaced closers are still better investments than their replacements. I’d rather own Marmol, Walden or Bell than any of their bullpen counterparts—though I do love Ernesto Frieri, who probably could run away with the job if given the chance.

Many closers who get displaced will get another shot; they weren’t installed as their teams’ closers accidentally. When the next great thing often actually only proves to be the next mediocre thing, the value of the last mediocre thing is often totally ignored. It’s easier and a lot cheaper to speculate on those who have lost their jobs but haven’t seen it get far away from them than it is to chase the hype of the next-in-line closer—the major league equivalent of the fan-favorite back-up quarterback. If you have room on your roster, scoop up recently displaced closers when they are dropped; many of these relationships are of the on-again, off-again variety.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Derek Ambrosino 2012-05-15T08:38:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/longview/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/longview/#When:08:48:15
Earlier this week, I exchanged emails with a reader who was frustrated because this kind of transaction happened a few times in his league, benefiting the same team repeatedly. This reader was not alleging collusion had taken place, but he was upset that this owner was building his team into a prohibitive favorite, assembling a roster one would never be able to legitimately obtain if the league were to redraft/auction today. He was curious as to whether I saw any recourse for him and the other owners who had not been fleeced but were finding the competitive advantage tilting further toward an alleged dream team.

I don’t think any sort of intervention would be justifiable in this case and I told him the best advice I could give him is to get his own ski mask and try to raid the trade market as effectively as his competitor. But, there are some general themes worth discussing in regard to this issue.

The path to fantasy sports dominance is almost always a stepwise process whereby a successful owner gets the marginally to moderately better side of several decisions over the course of the year. Great rosters simply don’t fall from the sky. With this in mind, it is important to keep an eye on others’ rosters throughout your league. When it comes time to make a trade, you don’t want to inadvertently give a competitor the lane to a title in the process of improving your own team.

While improving your team is goal unto itself, it is not the ultimate goal. As an owner, you should be defining realistic mid- and long-term goals and moving toward them. Right now, in most leagues, winning it all should still be a conceivable goal for virtually all owners. In pursuing your larger goal, you need to understand how your decisions impact the other teams in your league.

In my reply to this reader I noted that I’ve been in situations before where I chose not to make a mutually beneficial trade with an owner with an established lead in the standings because I didn’t want to further strengthen that particular team. My immediate goal of improving my team was at odds with my long term goals of winning the league and/or assembling one of the strongest keeper cores in the league.

As the season plays out, you may have to adjust your goals if you perceive the biggest bounties to no longer be realistically obtainable. As that happens, you may find yourself on the opposite side of the “don’t hand another team the title” issue. If you are able to identify this tipping point early and accurately, you can often sell your soul for your flesh in a manner that will net you earthly profit even if not spiritual bliss.

A front-running team often has no shortage of resources and if you match needs correctly, you should actually be able to get $1.10 or $1.20 on the dollar for the specific assets that team needs to put it over the top. Other teams in the league might dislike you helping somebody else win in exchange for that team helping you place or show, but as long as there are actual ends in sight, nobody can rightfully criticize you for making a calculated concession.

To some readers, this may conjure up the endless debate about whether cellar-dwelling teams should be trading with front runners in the second half of the season. For my thoughts on that issue, I’d refer you to this piece. What I’m talking about here though is slightly different; here I’m concerned with keeping short and long term goals in sight and in balance, and acting assertively and shrewdly to make sure you see the writing on the wall early on and do something about it if and when you do.

This is why the “[owner x] is giving [owner y] the championship,” is an insufficient argument for protesting a trade. Such an argument lacks context. The primary criterion on which a trade should be judged is always whether both owners are acting (or at least intending to act) in their best interest at the time. Sometimes, it is in your best interest to not make a trade that benefits your team if that trade makes a favorite even stronger. At other times, it may be in your interest to “give [owner y] the championship” to secure your own standing.

With all that said, it is absolutely critical to iterate the obvious, which is that nobody can predict the future with certainty. To be sure, in early May, nobody in any league can say with any credibility that any trade that goes down ensures anybody will win or lose anything. Even later in the season, such a contention just means that the odds have been adjusted in one teams favor in the most objective consensus sense. The paradox, of course, here is that we all make our fortunes on knowing better than the next guy and the objective consensus. Commissioners out there must protect the rights of owners to make their bets and profit from them. The challenge is drawing the line between counterintuitive and reckless behavior.

Finishing up on a cautionary note, consider the following two points as food for thought for those who get tempted to cast a veto vote on the perceived of an “unfair” trade resulting in perceived prohibitive dominance by another team.

One, some of these bizarre trades actually work out in favor of the team that appears to be getting fleeced at the time of the transaction. This is one of the absolute worst scenarios in which a commissioner can find him/herself and it produces an owner completely justified in being irate. Commissioners should heed the Hippocratic Oath and make all attempts to avoid doing harm. One behavior a good commissioner displays is protecting him/herself from falling into the stickiest of situations.

Anecdote time. This past football season, a good friend of mine was involved in a trade in his fantasy league that got overturned because the league’s consensus was he didn’t give up enough in a combo deal that netted him Adrian Peterson. So, the league and commissioner forced him to take Victor Cruz out of the trade and replace him with Stevie Johnson so the other owner could get more… Needless to say, this turned into a mess as the other owner would have actually won the initial trade but actually lost when the league stepped in to try to make the deal more even.

Virtually everybody was upset. The owner who didn’t get Cruz was irate and threatened to withhold his league dues because his foresight was rendered impotent. Other teams in the league that now had to contend with a team boasting both Peterson and dominant Cruz were upset because my friend wound up with both studs. In attempt to preclude the assembly of a perceived dream team, the league facilitated the assembly of an actual dream team.

Two, you can’t judge one piece of straw more harshly than the previous simply because it was the one that, in your subjective view, broke the camel’s back. Decisions about transactions must be made individually without regard to the cumulative effect of previous transactions. If it wouldn’t be overturn-able if I did it, it’s not overturn-able when you do it.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Derek Ambrosino 2012-05-08T08:48:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/tht-vs.-fangraphs/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/tht-vs.-fangraphs/#When:06:53:15
The THT vs. Fangraphs league features six writers from each organization. The format is standard deep-roster, mixed-league player universe, auction, FAAB set-up. But, after that things get a bit interesting.

First off, the league is sponsored by Fantasy Squared, which is basically what you’d guess it to be. Fantasy Squared is ostensibly a fantasy game for fantasy leagues. As a secondary market fantasy game, it offers some interesting opportunities.

Users of Fantasy Squared can purchase stock in teams in expert leagues, allowing them to bet on who is going to win the league. The market-based price changes in real-time based upon factors like current standings, new player developments, etc. So, you know how you like to take an article one of us writes about our league drafts/auctions and claim to know which owner has the best team? Well, this is an opportunity to put your money where your mouth is. You can also bet against particular owners.

Other propositions are open for wagering as well. For example, you can bet on who will get the better of a trade.

It’s a really cool idea—so cool, I wish I'd thought of it! I suggest you take a peek at the demo video, which explains the concept in a bit more depth than I have done here.

Currently, Fantasy Squared is in its beta test stage, so not all the options that will ultimately be available are open to everybody. But, the plan is for this service to be able to be added on to any existing private league, so you and your buddies can bet on the activity in your own league, as well as be attached to numerous existing public expert leagues, so our readers can prove to us what we all really know already—they’re smarter than we are!

Being a sponsor doesn’t simply mean that I will write an article prominently featuring Fantasy Squared as a form of free advertising. THT vs. Fangraphs has a philanthropic component to it as well, and Fantasy Squared is already exercising its corporate social responsibility arm, so to speak. Each expert is putting up a couple of bucks of their own money and we are each playing for a charity. Fantasy Squared is putting up some scratch as well. The winning team will get to choose the charity to which the prize is ultimately donated.

We’ll be checking in with periodic updates regarding the progress of the league, and in a follow-up article I’ll plug the charities chosen by each participant. A month in, the standings are disproportionately in favor of the THT crew, with Ben Pritchett establishing a dominant early season lead.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Derek Ambrosino 2012-05-01T06:53:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/sustainable-profits/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/sustainable-profits/#When:06:34:15 Omar Infante is off to a tremendous start and sitting among the fantasy elite on rankings boards, but he is not going to hit 35 homers. The following players look to generally be doing what they can be expected to do and are being rewarded for it in their season-to-date ranks.

Emilio Bonafacio
Original Yahoo rank: 143
Current Yahoo rank: 38
Current season stats: 7/0/1/5/.316

Miami’s fantasy utility man is currently on pace for 81 steals and that is not going to happen, but broadly speaking Bonafacio is basically doing what he does. (He’s also on pace for only 16 RBI, which also won’t happen.) Coming into the season, those who were high on him thought of Bonafacio as a potential 3-category player, and a cheaper and more versatile alternative to players like Michael Bourn, Dee Gordon, and Brett Gardner. Those who acted on such a presumption are looking wise now and I suspect they will continue to appear that way at season’s end. Bonafacio may not finish the season among the top 50, but an elite stolen base total, plenty of runs, and a helpful batting average are reasonable expectations. He also walks enough to continue to justify hitting in the top of line-up—not as if a lack of that skill would matter when playing Ozzieball. I’d acquire Bonafacio with confidence. The flexibility he adds to a roster is also an undervalued commodity.

Dee Gordon
Original Yahoo rank: 90
Current Yahoo rank: 44
Current season stats: 7/0/2/7/.200

Not counting fielder’s choices, Gordon has reached base 12 times this season and attempted 8 steals. Yes, he’s mostly a one-trick-pony, but he’s really good at that trick, and performing it over and over is really all that is needed to establish upper echelon fantasy value.

Yes, I worry about his low OBP, fueled by a low AVG. And, yes, I worry about his early strikeout rates. But, luckily, I don’t really worry about Don Mattingly being Joe Maddon.

To some extent, Gordon has gotten lucky by scoring 7 times while only avoiding making an out in 12 PAs; Matt Kemp is not going to hit 80 homers and Andre Either is not going to hit .455 with runners in scoring position. But, seeing Gordon’s stat line brings to mind the first full season from Jose Reyes, who scored 99 runs despite sporting a chilling .300 OBP simply because of his ability to get himself around the bases in the all-too-rare opportunities he gave himself as a hitter.

Nolan Reimold
Original Yahoo rank: 274
Current Yahoo rank: 105
Current season stats: 2/2/4/1/.323

I’m a believer in Nolan Reimold, and while he’s certainly not a .300+ hitter, I think his overall rank vicinity is generally sustainable. He will not hit for this high an average, but he’s gotten the shaft thus far, RBI-wise, so things should probably balance out over the long term.

It’s beginning to become obvious to the Orioles that they need to get Reimold’s bat in the line-up one way or another. Endy Chavez is not much of an obstacle in the outfield, nor are there many DH-threats holding him back from nearly full time ABs. And, given those ABs, Reimold will produce. Owned in only 15% of Yahoo leagues, this could be a player who can give your team outfield depth.

Reimold hit for power both throughout his Minor League years and in most of his opportunities with the O’s. He doesn’t suffer from distressing splits against righties and he should even be able to contribute 8 – 12 steals over the course of a full season. I expect him to be shallow mixed league relevant all year as a 4th or 5th OF.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Derek Ambrosino 2012-04-17T06:34:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/early-impressions/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/early-impressions/#When:09:11:15
Encapsulated in this truth is a smaller kernel that isn’t widely articulated, perhaps because it is an inconvenient truth for most of those in the business of prognosticating and offering advice. That smaller kernel of truth is that it is virtually impossible for your preseason speculations to have been proven or disproven yet.

While a hot week may feel as if it has more significance because it happens to correspond with an educated guess you made in the preseason, your prediction is still far from the threshold of proof or disproof. As I’ve written before, the insight more readily attainable at this point in the season pertains to trends such as usage patterns and bullpen hierarchies.

However, the fact that much of what we want to know can’t yet be known does not preclude people in positions such as mine from offering their opinions. There’s nothing wrong with that—and I’m about to offer some shortly—but it is important to remember that such opinions aren’t necessarily more informed than they were a week ago simply because teams have a handful of games under their belts.

With that disclaimer in mind, here are some observations and opinions that attempt to blend empiricism and objective patterns with educated speculation.

Reports of David Wright’s death have been widely exaggerated
Many were down on Wright coming into the season, both because of potential health issues and more disappointing recent campaigns than stellar ones. But Wright has started the season off hot. I had written in the offseason that I expected Wright to bounce back this year, and I still expect that to be the case.

The new, shorter dimensions at Citi Field allow Wright to prosper by reverting to his natural approach at the plate. I’ve noticed in past years that Wright had adopted more torque in his swing and seemingly attempted to pull the ball more in an attempt to salvage his power numbers. Early indications are that he is shedding that tendency. Health issues still loom, but presumably Wright’s stock fell further than it should because the concern and uncertainty about his health hit their peaks during prime fantasy draft period.

As I’m writing this, news has broken regarding Wright’s now-injured pinky. It looks like he’ll be in a splint and miss some time; additional info probably will be known Wednesday, the day this piece runs. My observations here relate more to Wright’s ability to produce truly elite fantasy value than his ability to stay on the field. I worry more about that latter than the former and, obviously, playing hurt mitigates anybody’s ability.

The rebirth of Ichiro … meh
Another player whose stock hit bottom this offseason was Ichiro Suzuki. Coming off a poor season and at 38 years of age, the soft-hitting former batting-average monster wasn’t attracting many fantasy suitors this draft season. But he, too, is off to great start, and now that he’s hitting third, perhaps there’s some renewed optimism about Ichiro’s fantasy prowess.

Overall, color me unconvinced. My skepticism is not reflective of a lack of faith in Ichiro—I do think he will be better than last year—but I still question how much fantasy value to which such an improvement will translate. Hitting third sounds like a nice proposition, but Seattle’s offense is so anemic that it’s almost like a paper-only benefit.

Further, I don’t believe in Chone Figgins either, and I think it’s likely that if Ichiro does continue to hit, he’ll just be moved back into the leadoff spot. Either way, he faces an uphill battle. As a middle-of-the-order hitter, it will be difficult for him to drive in a ton of runs without hitting for more power, and as a top-of-the-order hitter, it will difficult for him to amass a gaudy runs-scored mark with his supporting cast.

So, at best, Ichiro becomes what he used to be, which is a player who really couldn’t earn his price unless he hit .350. Batting average is an underrated fantasy asset, but still, Ichiro is a middling commodity, and since vintage Ichiro was overvalued in the first place, anybody who thinks "he’s back” likely values him too highly now. If Ichiro keeps up to the point that his resurgence becomes a real storyline, I’d be looking to sell.

Matt Kemp is not really going to go 50-50
Selling a superstar at the height of his powers is one of the most difficult things for a fantasy owner to bring him or herself to do. However, when hype and talent crescendo, and you get a sprinkling of small-sample-size luck to boot, it’s worth exploring the market. After coming into the season as the consensus top overall fantasy player, Kemp has begun this season on an absolute tear. Who knows what other owners might be willing to pay for him?

I may have mentioned in this column before that I have a bit of a sneaker addiction, so I’m going to make an analogy here. When a hyped, limited sneaker is released, many of those people lining up to buy that pair are doing so with the intent to resell them. If hype reaches critical levels and there happens to be real demand for the shoe beyond its limited nature (the nexus of “hype” and “talent”) the secondary market explodes immediately.

That sneaker will fetch its highest price on ebay within 24 to 72 hours. Down the line, it will still be easy to sell that pair for much above retail, but that premium commanded when the commodity is “now” fades. Kemp may now be in that window of price maximization. It’s worth finding out what other owners will (or will not) pay for The Bison. Oh, and sneaker resellers—get a life!

Bullpens remain volatile
As usual, we’ve already witnessed some surprises, semi-surprises, and implosions out of various bullpens around the league. Alfredo Aceves and Mark Melancon have both struggled. Hector Santiago emerged with the closer job over Matt Thornton and Addison Reed. Joel Peralta seems to have given way to Fernando Rodney after one poor appearance. Sergio Santos has blown two saves already with Francisco Cordero waiting in the wings. Jonathan Broxton was given first chair in Kansas City, leaving Greg Holland without a closer gig.

None of these situations should be considered permanent. If possible, I’d avoid dropping any of these players. Quality middle relievers with a potential path to saves, an undervalued commodity class to begin with, are players whose values can skyrocket on a moment’s notice. I’d much rather drop a middling player with bounce-back aspirations, a Jason Bay type, than a player like Thornton who could become quite valuable and tradable in the span of two weeks.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Derek Ambrosino 2012-04-11T09:11:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/mr.-right-now/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/mr.-right-now/#When:09:12:15
I’m often asked about rostering uber-prospects like Bryce Harper or Mike Trout in standard, non-keeper leagues. My position on these players is more tepid than most. While owning potentially elite talents like Trout or Harper is a sexy proposition and good for the psyche because it feels like you have a bullet remaining in the chamber that your opponents don’t have, I’m not sure it’s all that practical. Oftentimes that bullet either doesn’t get fired until the battle is nearly over or turns out to be a blank.

As I’ve written many times before, talent is only one side of the production equation, opportunity being the other. A talented player lacking opportunity may have some value to various owners, but in the strictest sense, only production actually has value in the immediate term.

Earlier this week, a friend in a standard 12-team league asked whether he should drop Harper to add Mark Melancon, given the news of Andrew Bailey’s thumb problems. I told him to go for it. My friend has now inherited a valuable closer. Melancon is about as unsexy as you can get, but turning potential energy into kinetic is the name of the game.

I’d just like to offer a few more thoughts on why holding onto a blue-chip prospect may not be the best of ideas when playing in standard non-keeper leagues.

Bringing sand to the beach
Each year, players emerge from the waiver wire to become stars, or at least valuable fantasy contributors. If you hamstring your roster flexibility by retaining a player who isn’t in the majors, you increase the likelihood of missing out on breakout players on the waiver wire. Finding this year’s breakout players takes some skill and some luck, but you have to be in it to win it.

Playing shorthanded
Another manifestation of the opportunity cost to roster non-MLB players is that you get zero production from that bench spot until the player is called up. If you’ve ever charted your projected categorical production against milestone targets from the previous season while drafting or auctioning, you may have noticed that you almost always comes up slightly short of your targets.

One of the reasons this happens is because throughout the season teams get production from their bench. When your starters are given a day off or a team has an off day and you rotate your bench bats in, you get production. Those one and two runs and RBIs add up over time. A player not rostered by a major league team can’t help you on off days or fill in for a player getting a day off.

As in real sports, winning in fantasy sports requires contributions from each and every roster spot. If you are waiting for your prospect to be given his chance, you are playing a man short until that happens and relying on his production to outstrip that of your other options by a wide enough margin that it compensates for past missed opportunities.

I’ve seen it work; a friend of mine got a huge boost from a drafted-and-stashed Evan Longoria and won our league in 2008. But, I’ve seen it fail more often.

Value above replacement
Unless you play in a deep, or AL- or NL-only league, there are likely competent, reasonably productive players who receive regular playing time on your waiver wire. The higher the caliber of player on the wire, the greater the opportunity cost of holding onto a prospect.

Not only do you forfeit greater production while the prospect keeps the roster spot dead, but the bar for what the prospect must produce upon call-up is raised. Many top prospects don’t produce much more than league-average numbers in their first taste of MLB action. The pain of missing out on flexibility and other breakout players is magnified if your prince turns into a toad as soon as he heads out to the big dance.

Why not troll/ambulance chase instead?
Injured players provide much of the same appeal as prospects, but their opportunity cost is lower. If you roster Ryan Howard or Chase Utley, they will not cost you a roster spot once they are put on the DL. This means you can still visit the waiver wire singles bar, rotating bench players in to maximize games played, and you still have the chance of elite talent and production finding its way onto your roster later in the season.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Derek Ambrosino 2012-04-04T09:12:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/cramming-the-smart-way/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/cramming-the-smart-way/#When:09:12:15
I consider myself a good test taker, and because I got that reputation, I was often sought for advice in regard to taking the SAT. Many of those who asked me about it hadn’t really prepared and began freaking out as the test crept up. The first piece of advice I always gave people in that situation is to focus on information and knowledge that you can guarantee you will use. This means focusing on breadth of knowledge instead of depth, and focusing on strategy and familiarizing yourself with scoring systems and such as opposed to trying to cram as much content into your head as possible.

The first instinct many of the frantic students had was to begin studying vocabulary lists, as that was a major piece of many of the SAT review books. Similarly, a frantic fantasy leaguer may be tempted to start reading as many articles as possible, gobbling up any list of “sleepers” his or her Google search pings back. This is exactly the wrong approach. Instead, bring your attention to higher-level issues.

Understand your league scoring and settings
On the SAT, one of the most important things people needed to learn was the math of guessing—when it was to your advantage to do so. In fantasy baseball, one of the first things to acquaint yourself with is your league settings. If you’re not in a traditional 5x5 league, here is your first opportunity to start identifying value. Sometimes, there is categorical imbalance in the settings chosen.

Does your league scoring disproportionately value rate stats? Do you have a very low innings limit? Do you use on-base percentage instead of batting average? Two catchers? These are all opportunities to identify players with enhanced value in your particular league.

Focus on grouping players into tiers
Instead of trying to read in-depth on every player, take a look at ADPs or projected draft prices and try to identify patterns within positions. For example, here are a few patterns I’ve noticed this year. First basemen aren’t as plentiful as often thought, and second base is deeper than people think. Shortstop is very thin, while thid base is top-heavy, but not deep.

Within these positions you will also find additional patterns. Take shortstop, for example. You have a big three, then a handful of fairly similar decent options, and then not much to be excited about, minus a few interesting gambles.

A general rule of thumb by which one can often abide is to avoid being the drafter who breaks the barrier between tiers. If there are five players whose auction value all project to be within four dollars, more often than not, you will get a better bargain buying the second-to-last player in that group than buying the first player in that group. Jeff Gross recently published a series of articles that focuses on breaking players into tiers at each position.

Devise a general strategy
It’s important to approach a draft with a plan. Some of the overall principles guiding your strategy will likely come from any insight you glean from analyzing your league setup. Other principles will be guided by insights derived from taking your bird’s-eye approach to the player pool. Maybe you want to fill your middle infield early. Maybe you don’t like the back-end closer options. Thinking strategically can help force you to turn your opinions into actionable knowledge.

Make cheat sheets for steals and saves
Steals and saves are the two single categories in most limited supply. Make sure you have a list of each team’s projected closer as well as the next-in-lines for the most tenuous situations. Compile a list of players likely to steal 20 or bases. If it gets late in the draft and you find yourself behind in these categories, you should be able to find a cheap player to fill this need. Plus, given the thin supply of these categories, you want to track as they come off the board.

Set some benchmarks
If your league is a repeat league, it should be synched to the previous years’ standings. Look at what it took to win each category the previous season and get a feel for what statistical totals are required to compete in each category.

Understand the type of player you are
Are you quick to wire? Do you have an itchy drop finger? If you don’t think you can’t be the first to act on closer news, you might want to draft more or better closers. If you don’t have a lot of patience, you may not want to draft unproven younger players. Think about how to assemble a team that matches your personality. This is also a way to differentiate similarly priced players on grounds not explicitly tied to having intimate knowledge of their skill sets, spring performance, etc.

Plan to make use of the draft clock
While skill is one side of the production equation, opportunity is the other. If you are in a draft, start anticipating who the highest-ranked available players will be when it’s your turn. Then you can do some quick cramming. Are there injury issues? Is there a plan to shuffle their prior batting order position? Will playing time be an issue?

If you haven’t had a chance to do much research in advance, this is one way to narrow the player pool to those on whom you will likely have to actually make a decision. Many players are not viable options for your team, either because of need or because of what other drafters do. If you spend your cram time reading deeply on a player, it goes for zilch if you wind up never having to make a decision on that particular player.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Derek Ambrosino 2012-03-21T09:12:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/solve-for-adp-pt.-2/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/solve-for-adp-pt.-2/#When:09:11:15 column that took generally reasonable, though arbitrary projections for various players and ran those numbers through baseballmonster’s player rate data for last year to get a feel for what those players would have to do to live up to their ADP. A more thorough explanation of the process is included in the original column.

That column got a good reaction, and some of you specifically asked me to do some more of these. So, here’s another mini-round of Solving for ADP, taking three more players whose ADPs jumped out at me as intriguing for one reason or another.


Giancarlo Stanton
ADP: 25

Okay, so what if I just wanted to type “Giancarlo Stanton?” Pretty big things are expected of this young man, and I wouldn’t claim the following hypothetical season to be among the most aggressive projections I’ve seen.

R:90
HR: 37
RBI: 103
SB: 4
AVG: .264

2010 Equivalent overall rank: 21

Many of us at THT are high on Stanton. I’m not the highest, but I am aboard the bandwagon. Still, when I saw an ADP of 25, I was quite curious as to how much profit and loss potential there would be at that price. Well, it appears that if you love Stanton, there’s still a legitimate chance at profit at the 25th overall pick.

If Stanton steps even further forward in the power department, or is the beneficiary of some modest BABIP luck, there’s top 15 potential to be tapped, top 12 if he can swipe double digit bases, which many young players are able to do just by virtue of being young.

Stanton certainly would be on my radar in the mid 20s. In fact, if you’re among those of us who generally stay away from the super elite starting pitchers, he might start popping up into your sights in the late teens.


Starlin Castro
ADP: 42

Castro strikes me as a medium fish in a small pond. Let’s see what the following season would net you.

R:85
HR: 10
RBI: 68
SB: 23
AVG: .300

2010 Equivalent overall rank: 47

There are two ways to interpret the data above. If you want to focus on the positional value aspect of Castro’s fourth-rounder candidacy, you can note that shortstop is a barren wasteland and getting the consensus fourth-best player at his position in the fourth round isn’t a bad deal.

The fact that a fairly standard season would return about 90 cents on your dollar while earning you a sound positional advantage over a number of teams in your league paints a picture of Castro as a somewhat safe investment around his ADP.

That doesn’t happen to be the camp to which I belong. I tend to think Castro is being overdrafted. I want production over “value” early in the draft. I’d rather invest highly in one of the Big Three shortstops, or wait for the last player in the Castro, Rollins, Cabrera, Andrus (and maybe Jeter) tier. Basically, Castro projects to be the first player from the second tier at his position to be drafted, and that’s a pick I try to avoid making. I just don’t see the potential to profit from this pick.

It should be mentioned that there’s a minority out there who believe Castro will have a bit of a power breakout this season. This would be the key to Castro turning a positive return on his ADP. If you think 16–18 homers is in the cards for Castro, then that changes his projected value, and maybe you should take the plunge. With 40 combined steals and homers, he would separate himself a bit further from the others in his tier and stand alone between the Tulos and and Hanleys and the Cabreras and Andruses.

On another note, while it wouldn’t come the same way, it’s possible that Dee Gordon nets similar overall value, by basically being Michael Bourn as a shortstop.

Alex Rodriguez
ADP: 58

Has the A-Rod backlash jumped the shark? It’s hard to project a season for A-Rod, given that he’s been unable to stay healthy the last several seasons. Still, the counting numbers tally prolifically when he’s on the field. How about something like this?

R:78
HR: 27
RBI: 80
SB: 6
AVG: .268

2010 Equivalent overall rank: 53

Perhaps the A-Rod hate has gone too far. There are two things about the Rodriguez equation that I like from a fantasy investment perspective. The first thing to like is that if he plays a full season, you get massive value from this pick. He’s no longer an MVP candidate, but as far as I can tell, Rodriguez probably is a good bet to produce similarly to Mark Teixeira in a full season’s worth of at-bats.

The other side of the equation is that A-Rod, if he were to miss time, is likely to miss consecutive chunks of games as opposed to suffering nagging injuries. That DNP profile is easier to manage, as weekly-lineup-settings leaguers have certainty, and all A-Rod owners can pick up a decent player off waivers and plug him into their lineups for a week or two at a time.

While A-Rod may or may not return his ADP value, he will outproduce his ADP in per-game production, which means that if you spend a late-round pick, or a dollar or two, on a contingency plan, you should probably be able to eke out a profit from your investment in the third base position if you select in A-Rod.

That is not to say Rodriguez is the only value to be had at the position. Aramis Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, and Kevin Youkilis are all being drafted after A-Rod and have their own appealing upsides, as well.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Derek Ambrosino 2012-03-14T09:11:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/why-im-not-worried-about-ryan-braun/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/why-im-not-worried-about-ryan-braun/#When:09:10:15 Ryan Braun. In fact, prior to the urine sample heard ‘round the world, I was ready to anoint Braun my top overall fantasy pick for 2012.

Since taking the league by storm in 2007, Braun has done nothing but put up at least borderline first-round value every season of his career. If I owned Matt Kemp and was asked whether I would sign for Braun’s career-average production from Kemp in 2012, I’d whip out my Mont Blanc and site.

However, it’s been a busy offseason for Mr. Braun, and additional news has impacted the landscape of potential No. 1 options. Miguel Cabrera is looking down the barrel of third base-eligibility, and Albert Pujols has changed teams. The Kemp supports are still out in force, as well.

As of now, Miggy is my top overall player. As far as Braun, I think it’s hard to make a case for him being anything less than the fourth overall ranked player. I can see a case for Pujols and Kemp in addition to Cabrera, but after that, I run out of legitimate contenders.

Since there are several issues swirling around Braun right now, I’d like to offer my takes on which factors don’t worry me and which do.

Am I worried that Braun was a cheater and that all his majestic baseball powers came from performance-enhancing drugs, so now all of a sudden he won’t be awesome any more because he’ll have to stop taking them?

No. First of all, and I’m going to risk derailing my article and being labeled an apologist here, his legal team’s choice to advance a breech of protocol defense does not even preclude the possibility that he also could have been innocent outright. When you are facing charges in a court of sorts, you mount the defense that is most likely to win, not the one that if successful will make you look the best in the eyes of public.

Talk from Braun’s camp all along was that the substance was banned but not performance enhancing. Even if that were true—like, say, if the prevailing rumor were true—it’s likely he’d still have to serve the suspension. Braun’s obligation is to be on the field for the team that pays him millions of dollars to win them ballgames. So, if he convinced the public he didn’t cheat but just violated the policy (and, let’s be real, that’s an essentially impossible border to straddle in public opinion), it wouldn’t have done him or the Brewers any good anyway.

All that said, it doesn’t matter to me whether he was “using something” and now he won’t be. I have to see him fail before I think of him as anything but one of the very few best players in the sport. You don’t become a perennial MVP candidate by taking a pill.

This is where the over-the-top self-righteousness of the pubic can create value for you in a draft. Don’t buy into arguments driven by the morality police. Until it is proven otherwise—on the field—Braun is an absolutely fantastic baseball player and one of the most valuable fantasy commodities available.

Am I worried about the loss Prince Fielder as his “protection?”

No. Last year, Braun was intentionally walked two times while Fielder was awarded a league-leading 32 intentional passes. Some say Braun won’t be pitched to as much, and he won’t have a stud to drive him in so often. I don’t buy the idea that this will affect Braun’s overall value. I feel this way for several reasons.

Even if Braun does get a significantly higher amount of IBBs, so what? Did the 32 IBBs hurt Fielder’s value much last season? Not particularly, as he still scored 95 runs with Casey McGehee posting .617 OPS in 116 games out of the fifth spot in the order. In terms of enticing pitchers to issue a free pass, Aramis Ramirez will provide greater protection than McGehee provided for Fielder last season.

Also, keep in mind that players who post gaudy IBB totals often seem to be those known to have good plate discipline in the first place, like Fielder. This makes sense because the risk of “pitching around” a well-disciplined and highly dangerous hitter is great and the reward is low, as they are less likely to swing at your non-strike offerings anyway, and a mistake could very costly. (I’ve advanced this theory in regard to Barry Bonds many times in the past.) Braun does not fall into this camp, so while the context may call for a ton of IBBs, his makeup as a batter may not.

But, for the sake of argument, let’s even grant the notion that Braun is given, say, 20 more intentional passes. I’m not sure how that really hurts his value. Fielder managed to score 95 runs with an inept hitter behind him largely because his gaudy walk total, bolstered by a healthy dose of intentional walks, pushed his on-base percentage comfortably above .400. In the previous three seasons, Fielder has had two great seasons and one simply good one; Braun broke 100 runs scored each time.

But, I’m not finished. Twenty more free passes would also result in 20 more chances for Braun to steal bases, and the more times he reaches base, the more chances he has to score runs. Substituting 20 chances to drive in runs for 20 guaranteed times reaching first base could very well actually boost a player like Braun’s value.

Lineup protection is largely a myth in the first place, and this is a non-issue at worst and a blessing in disguise at best.

Finally, the other top overall candidate most similar to Braun is Kemp. Isn’t Kemp’s “protection” even weaker than Braun’s expected “protection?” Wasn’t it just as weak last year? Did it matter? Lineup protection issues can’t be considered any greater detriment to Braun than they are to Kemp.

So, what are you worried about?

The public and a potential media circus. It will be critical for Braun to get off to good start, though if he gets off to too good of a start, that could precipitate its own set of woes. What Braun needs to avoid is doing anything, performance-wise, to feed the write-by-numbers palaver of either "player newly off juice now stinks" or "cheater gets away with crime and taunts league by dominating."

Over time, Braun will revert to his career norms if left alone, but the public scrutiny of a media circus can grate on a player and move toward becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Braun just has to go out and be Braun, but if he doesn’t, he will invite the storylines and coverage that can draw a season out to feel like an eternity, and over time that begins to affect one’s play.

I think Braun will be fine and will put together a standard, awesome Ryan Braun campaign. What I fear most when it comes to reasons why that might not happen have nothing to do with Ryan Braun.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Derek Ambrosino 2012-02-29T09:10:15+00:00