The Hardball Times -- Larry Mahnken http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-06-20T08:10:15+00:00 Why the Yankees won the World Series http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-the-yankees-won-the-world-series/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-the-yankees-won-the-world-series/#When:05:06:15
The city was still in mourning, but for almost a month the Yankees had provided a welcome distraction to a city that needed it. They had come back from a 2-0 series deficit against the A’s in the division series, trounced the 116-win Mariners in the ALCS, and two nights in a row, they had tied the Diamondbacks with a two-out, two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth inning. Now they were three outs away, with the greatest closer in history on the mound, with the bottom of the Arizona lineup at the plate. The dynasty of the late 1990s was about to extend into the 21st Century with a fourth consecutive World Championship. The parade would not be through the Canyon of Heroes this year—that was too close to Ground Zero—but there would be a parade, and the city needed a parade. They were just three outs away.

They never got those three outs, and as Luis Gonzalez’s soft blooper dropped over the head of Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera looked back with a look that said, “You got me this time, but we’ll be back.”

But they wouldn’t be back, not with that team, anyway. Some of the core would retire that offseason, some would be allowed to leave as free agents, and eight years later, just four players from that 2001 team remained: Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, and Rivera.

Last Wednesday was Nov. 4, and again Rivera took the mound needing three outs to clinch the World Championship—the first time in those eight years the Yankees had come so close. This time there was no disaster, and an easy grounder to Robinson Cano clinched the 27th Championship that had eluded the Yankees in Arizona.

The Phillies entered the World Series having lost just one game in each of their previous five postseason series. The team featured a power-laden lineup that was perhaps more dangerous than any the Yankees had faced all year. They were not intimidated by the Yankees at all, and before the series their shortstop Jimmy Rollins had boldly predicted that Philadelphia would win the series in five games, “six if we’re nice.” Instead, they went down in six, and if not for the performance of their ace, Cliff Lee, may well have been swept.

A large part of the relative ease with which the Yankees toppled the Phillies lies in the putrid performance of the top of Philadelphia’s lineup. Chase Utley hit five home runs in the series to tie a record, but four of those home runs were solo shots, because the guys in front of him weren’t getting on. Rollins, Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard combined for a .191/.296/.279 line surrounding Utley—something to which the Yankees, starting lefties in four of six games, likely contributed, but can’t be entirely credited for.

Philadelphia’s bullpen played a large role in the Yankees’ victory, too, combining for a 5.74 ERA, the low point being Brad Lidge’s three-run ninth inning implosion in his one and only appearance after the Phillies had tied Game Four in the bottom of the eighth inning.

The Yankees’ performances were almost the opposite of the Phillies’. Their No. 3 hitter, Mark Teixeira, had an awful series, except for a game-tying home run in the second game of the series. Jeter and Johnny Damon combined for a .388/.434/.490 line, and while Alex Rodriguez hit only .250 and drew just three walks, his home run in Game Three and ninth-inning double in Game Four were crucial hits in the series. And, of course, Hideki Matsui, the series MVP, was otherworldly. Starting just three games and getting one pinch-hit plate appearance in the other three, Matsui was still the most potent run producer in the series, hitting .615 with three homers and eight RBIs—two of those homers giving the Yankees leads they would never relinquish.

Pitching was more hit-or-miss for the Yankees. CC Sabathia struggled with command in both of his starts, but was able to avoid giving up more than a run in any one inning, and three of the five runs he gave up were on Utley’s homers. A.J. Burnett was dominant in his Game Two start, but awful in his Game Five start. Pettitte was, at best, OK in his two starts.

Joe Girardi lost faith in the Yankees’ bullpen as the playoffs went on, leaning more heavily on Rivera than he had planned to, but in the series much of the bullpen was quite good. Joba Chamberlain gave up the game-tying home run to Pedro Feliz in Game Four, but gave up only one other hit in his three appearances, while striking out four with one walk. Damaso Marte redeemed his season with five strikeouts in four appearances, including a Game Six strikeout of Utley that May have sealed the series. Alfredo Aceves and David Robertson kept the Yankees within striking distance in what at first appeared to be a Phillies blowout in Game Five, although the comeback came up just short. And Rivera was almost perfect in closing out all four Yankee wins, two of them with more than three outs.

The Phillies certainly can point to any of a number of dreadful performances and declare they should have made a better showing in the series—in the clubhouse after Game Six, Rollins told reporters that the Phillies were better than the Yankees—but New York overcame dreadful performances themselves. Cano, Nick Swisher, Posada and Teixeira combined for a .167/.244/.282 line after going .289/.368/.528 in the regular season, but the team still scored more than five runs a game in the series.

In the end, the Yankees won because they were the best team, and they played better. You can say whatever you want about how they assembled their roster in becoming the best team, but they very clearly were the best.

This year may have been the last shot this team had at winning the World Series; almost every player on the roster saw an improvement over his 2008 performance, and for many of the team's stars, the effects of time are overdue. That’s not to say the Yankees won’t be back—they have money to spend and there are some talented players on whom they might spend this offseason, and they may even get back by standing pat. But unlike 2001, when the core of Jeter, Posada, Pettitte and Rivera had spent their entire careers knowing almost nothing but championships, the last eight years shows that no matter how much you spend and how much talent you hoard, the final triumph is never an easy one to achieve.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Larry Mahnken 2009-11-09T05:06:15+00:00 Why the Yankees will win the World Series http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-the-yankees-will-win-the-world-series/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-the-yankees-will-win-the-world-series/#When:05:13:15 Chris Chambliss christened the renovated Stadium with the franchise’s 30th pennant. Both teams faced off in the World Series that year against the respective defending World Champions, and the 2009 squad is no different: winning a record 40th pennant in New Yankee Stadium’s inaugural season, facing off against the defending World Champion Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies come in hot, steamrolling the Rockies and Dodgers in four and five games respectively, and showing mettle in coming back in the ninth inning in the fourth game of both series to avoid series-tying losses. They won’t give up their title easily, and the Yankees will have to be at their best to take it from them. Despite the general dislike of the Yankees and frustration over the cold weather that this series will be played in, it is generally conceded that this World Series offers the best possible matchup, and is likely to present a worthy battle for Major League Baseball’s championship.

When they met in late May during interleague play, the Phillies took two of three at Yankee Stadium to break a nine-game Yankees winning streak, but the Yankees came back in the ninth inning of both of the last two games, the first time to win, the second to force extra innings. Those three games showed how well-matched these teams were, and how hard the Yankees will have to play to triumph.

There are some clear advantages for the Yankees coming into this series, beside the obvious home field advantage. For starters, they are clearly, on paper, the more talented team.

The middle of the Phillies order—Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez and Jayson Werth—appears to match up extremely well to the Yankees’ middle—Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada—but it’s the top and middle of the lineup where the Yankees have a heavy edge. Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon are much better at getting on base than Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino, work the count better, and also displaying comparable power and base-stealing ability.

The bottom of the Phillies lineup drops off, as most lineups do, with Pedro Feliz and Carlos Ruiz, while the Yankees’ keeps going with Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher, who posted OBPs over .350 and hit 25 or more homers each. Melky Cabrera is the “weak” spot in the lineup, but his numbers were above league-average for a center fielder, and he was able to tear up the Angels in the ALCS with a .391 batting average. The loss of the DH in the NL parks obviously drops Matsui from the lineup, but the depth of the Yankees’ lineup means that their three through six hitters remain about the same in quality, and in CC Sabathia’s second start, they’ll even have the edge in the 9th batting slot.

The Phillies are also extremely reliant on the home run, scoring just 450 runs without a homer, compared to the Yankees’ 540. If the balls do not fly out of the park in the World Series, the Phillies might have a hard time keeping up with the Yankees’ attack, which Twins manager Ron Gardenhire characterized as a “continuous pressure”.

Lefty-righty matchups don’t faze the Yankees, either. The only two Yankees hitters to show any kind of platoon split are Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon, a righty and a lefty. The same can’t quite be said for the Phillies, who did hit lefties slightly better than righties as a team this season, but whose best hitter, Ryan Howard, has grown increasingly inept against lefty pitchers, which the Yankees will be starting in four or five of the seven games, with two other lefties coming out of the pen.

Those starters are another edge for the Yankees, who will likely be using CC Sabathia twice on short rest in the series, and his matchup against Cliff Lee in Game One negates what would normally be viewed as a certain win by the Phillies. Philadelphia isn’t intimidated by Sabathia after knocking him out of Game One of the NLDS last season, but that start was Sabathia’s fifth in 17 days, while tonight’s start will be Sabathia’s fifth in 27 days.

The rest of the rotation for the Yankees offers solid but less overpowering talent, with A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte posting a 3.38 ERA against two of the best offenses in the American League during the first two rounds, with the only bad start being Burnett’s six-run Game Five in the ALCS.

The Phillies on the other hand are a little shakier after Cliff Lee. The Yankees are 23-15 all-time against Game Two starter Pedro Martinez, including seven wins in their last 10 times facing him. Cole Hamels was the 2008 World Series MVP, but who struggled for much of the season and has put up three poor starts so far in the postseason.

Should the games be decided by the bullpens (as more than one certainly will be), the Yankees have a probable edge as well. Despite some struggles in the first two rounds, Phil Hughes has been a dominant setup man for the Yankees all season, and is more likely than not to continue being so in the next week. Mariano Rivera is his untouchable self (and had the Rockies or Dodgers had him, the Phillies’ first two postseason series might have gone very differently), and the rest of the Yankees’ pen was generally effective in the first two rounds.

The Phils, on the other hand, struggled to find reliable relievers in the bullpen all season, with their previously untouchable closer, Brad Lidge, posting an astonishing 7.21 ERA in almost 60 innings and leading the majors with 11 blown saves. He’s been perfect in the postseason so far, but five games do not negate a whole season of struggles, and he remains a bit of a question mark in the ninth inning of a close game.

So all of these factors, all of which seem to clearly favor the Yankees, make the Bronx Bombers a cinch for their record 27th World Championship, right? Wrong.

The difference in all of these things is relatively insignificant, and seven games are too few for whatever advantage the Yankees might have to become apparent. The series will be decided by the little unpredictable things: a two-out rally, a double by a light hitter, a double play by a big slugger. Errors, bad pitches, bad managerial decisions and perhaps another blown call by an umpire will have a greater impact than who had a better No. 7 hitter, talent-wise. The Phillies’ extended wait for the start of the series may have an impact, but it didn’t last year in a similar situation with the Rays. Rain may mess up the Yankees’ pitching rotation, or even enhance it by allowing them to start just three starters on full rest in the first six games, should they get rainouts at the right times. Chad Gaudin, Joe Blanton or J.A. Happ may get starts later in the series, and may either pitch their team out of the game, or singlehandedly win it for them with a dominating performance.

Still, I expect the Yankees to prevail. There is so much front-line talent complemented by so much depth that the Yankees need a lot to go wrong for them to be defeated. This is the team that the Yankees have tried to put together since tearing apart the core of the late '90s teams after the 2001 World Series. This is more or less the roster that Brian Cashman wanted to put together after taking total control of the front office in2005. They’re four wins away from reaching that goal they’ve chased for almost a decade. They’re the best team in baseball, and they have seven more games to prove it.

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But the Angels exposed the Yankees as an old, slow, defensively terrible team without much bullpen depth, and in the years that followed the Yankees ceased to be "the" top team in the league to "a" top team, to just another good team, to just another also-ran. 2009 was the first time since that series where the Yankees could be pointed to as clearly the best team in baseball, so it was appropriate that the Angels stood in the way of their first pennant in six years.

It was, in the end, a closely fought series, though not necessarily a well-played one. The Angels battled the Yankees in every game, and had just a few plays turned differently, the series would have had a different outcome. The Yankees walked away with their 40th pennant, and these are the reasons why.

Greed


No, I don’t mean the Yankees’ greed for top free agents—that hadn’t won them much of anything in previous years, anyway. No, this is the greed of MLB in trying to secure as many prime-time games as possible by adding an extra day off to the League Championship Series, allowing the Yankees to use only three starting pitchers, negating the Yankees’ biggest weakness and one of the Angels’ biggest advantages.

The extra day allowed the Yankees to start CC Sabathia three times in seven games—only once on short rest—while using A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte on full rest in their two starts. They avoided any starts from Chad Gaudin or Joba Chamberlain. The Angels, on the other hand, had a four-man rotation set from the start, which would have given them a distinct advantage had the Yankees been forced to do the same.

Sabathia went on to shut the Angels down twice on his way to MVP honors, forcing the Angels to win every game against Burnett and Pettitte to stay alive, something they failed to do.

Limiting the boners


Going in, one of the storylines about the Angels’ success since Mike Scioscia took over the team, and success against the Yankees in particular, was how the Angels "played the game the right way," and how they executed all the fundamentals. In the bottom of the first of Game One, that storyline was challenged.

With two out and Johnny Damon on second, John Lackey induced a weak popup to the left side from Hideki Matsui. Erick Aybar and Chone Figgins moved over to it, and then inexplicably let the ball drop between them without so much as reaching to catch it, scoring Damon. A throwing error on a pickoff in the sixth by Lackey led to the Yankees’ fourth run, and while Sabathia’s pitching ensured that the Yankees probably would have won anyway, it set a tone for the series.

In Game Two, Erick Aybar neglected to touch second base on an easy double play (which despite the controversy was an indisputably correct call), giving the Yankees a chance to win the game with a runner on second and one out (though they would fail to capitalize), and Maicer Izturis’s ill-advised attempt at a forceout in the 13th sent home the winning run when it went past Aybar.

Finally, in the decisive Game Six, trailing by just one run in the bottom of the eighth, Scott Kazmir threw away two sacrifice bunt attempts, sending home an insurance run and setting up another, sealing the pennant for the Yankees. There were other failings in the series, but those were the most important ones. The Yankees were generally able to limit their serious failures to an idiotic baserunning play in Game Four that Tim McClelland screwed up the call on, but ultimately didn’t matter much.

Saliva



Just kidding.

Angels fanboys thought they had caught something when they posted a video of Mariano Rivera spitting while holding the ball, and accused the greatest relief ace in postseason history of building his career on an illegal pitch. Ignoring that a spitter acts nothing like Rivera’s pitches do, the video itself showed Rivera’s spit passing nowhere near the baseball. Rivera laughed off the accusation when questioned about it, and continued to be his dominating self.

He finished off the Angels in the ninth in Game One, then kept the game tied for over two innings in Game Two. He saved the Yankees from a first-and-third nobody out situation in Game Three, and then in Game Six pitched two innings to finish off the game and the series.

Rivera wasn’t perfect in the series, but the near-automatic nature of his appearances has been a calming agent on the Yankees for years. In the postseason, where he pitches nearly every day, he’s one of the most valuable players the Yankees have. In a postseason where closers have suffered notable failures, Rivera’s value stands out even more.

Lineup depth



In the ALCS, Hideki Matsui posted a measly .670 OPS. Mark Teixeira's was a puny .550, and Nick Swisher put up a pathetic .442. Still, the Yankees scored at least four runs in every game, and posted a team OPS of .835 in the series.

The Yankees’ lineup is so deep that even four horrid performances couldn’t shut them down. Sure, Joe Saunders kept them in check for most of Game Two, and John Lackey did the same for most of Game Five, but the lineup kept grinding away, putting guys on base, getting scoring opportunities, even if they couldn’t always cash in. The non-reliance on any one or two players put the Yankees in a position to win every game, and in the end the Angels couldn’t overcome that.

Fallen angels



The Angels did their part to lose the series on offense, too. Vlad Guerrero, Howie Kendrick and Jeff Mathis had great series, and Torii Hunter had an okay series, but everyone else in the Angels lineup was horrid.

Bobby Abreu and Figgins combined for a .250 OBP and .455 OPS at the top of the lineup, and the rest of the team had a .453 OPS. The Angels survived on the strength of their starting pitching—it was their bullpen and lineup that let them down.

A-Rod


Once again, Alex Rodriguez had a magnificent series, his game-tying home run with the raindrops falling in the bottom of the 11th in Game Two may go down as the iconic moment of his career. Not once during the entire series did he swing at a ball and not make contact, and his 1.519 OPS would have made him a worthy co-MVP. His unclutch reputation is apparently dead and buried as he prepares for his first World Series, still seeking the one thing he has yet to accomplish in his career.

The Yankees move on to face the defending World Champion Phillies this week in what promises to be their toughest challenge yet. They’ve made it back to the World Series for the first time since Aaron Boone’s homer, but that year ended with a bitter defeat to the Marlins. The Yankees have played all year with a determination that nothing will be handed to them, and that attitude has served them well. It will be a necessary attitude to maintain in the coming games.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Larry Mahnken 2009-10-27T08:45:15+00:00 Why the Yankees will beat the Angels http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-the-yankees-will-beat-the-angels/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-the-yankees-will-beat-the-angels/#When:14:14:15 Orlando Hernandez was on the mound having retired 12 of the last 13 batters, having posted a 2.40 postseason ERA up to that point. The Yankees were ready to head to Anaheim leading two games to none, just six outs away.

Two pitches into the inning, the game was tied on a Garret Anderson home run, and five pitches later Troy Glaus untied it. A third run that inning and another in the ninth gave the Angels an 8-6 victory, and home field advantage.

No worries, the Yankees took a 6-1 lead into the bottom of the third inning of Game Three. And still the Angels came on, tying the game with two outs in the seventh, sealing the victory with three in the eighth. A 2-1 fifth inning lead for the Yankees was easily brushed aside with an eight-run fifth, and the Yankees found themselves bounced from the ALDS for the first time since 1997.

Since those four days in October, 2002, the Angels have been a thorn in the Yankees’ side. They’d played the Yankees great in the previous seasons, including winning the season series against the 1998 Yankees, but it wasn’t until the 2002 ALDS that they became a dreaded opponent in New York. After winning the 2003 season series 6-3, the Yankees lost every year until this one, when they managed a split with victories in the last two head-to-head games.

The Angels beat the Yankees with a style particularly suited to exploiting the Yankees’ weaknesses. They don’t walk much, but they also don’t strike much, forcing the Yankees’ defense to make plays. They are aggressive on the basepaths, forcing defenders to rush throws, leading to mistakes. Their pitchers keep the ball in the strike zone, and generally in the park—so the Yankees have difficulty wearing a pitcher down or getting a lot of runs when they hit it out.

It’s not as bad for the Yankees against the Angels as it has been for the Twins against the Yankees (or the Angels, for that matter). New York has certainly struggled head-to-head, but it looks worse than it is because the Angels are the only AL team not to have a losing record against the Yankees since 1998.

That being said, while they certainly don’t have the advantages they had in the first round, the Yankees have an excellent chance to win the ALCS and advance to the World Series for the first time since 2003. Here’s why the World Series will be played in New York this year:

Extra days off


MLB added an extra day off to the League Championship Series this season, between Games Four and Five. While the Angels are going with a four man rotation, the Yankees are probably going to use CC Sabathia on short rest in Game Four, and full rest in Game Seven (if necessary). Doing so allows the Yankees to avoid a sticky situation in having to start either Joba Chamberlain or Chad Gaudin in Game Four, at the same time maximizing the number of times they get to use their best starter.

The Angels have hit Sabathia reasonably well in the past, but you should never expect to beat a good pitcher, and Sabathia has been particularly good since his last start in LA heading into the All Star break.

Of course, rain on Friday would change all those plans.

Clutch-Rod


With his game-tying homers against Joe Nathan and Carl Pavano in the ALDS, Alex Rodriguez lifted a ton of pressure off of his shoulders, having previously developed a reputation as a player who could never and would never come through when it counted most. If he struggles in an ALCS loss, that reputation could make a comeback, but at this point A-Rod has to be coming to the park with renewed confidence in his ability to take over a game.

In 2005 he came into the ALDS on the heels of one of his most dominant offensive seasons, and the Angels weren’t willing to let him beat them. They walked A-Rod six times in five games, allowing him a .435 batting average—but when they didn’t walk him, they kept the ball where he couldn’t drive it. The strategy worked perfectly, as Rodriguez tried to do too much and swung at pitches he should have taken, getting himself out.

The Angels may try that strategy again this year – Rodriguez has a career .333/.393/1.000 line against them – and maybe A-Rod will be more patient and pass the buck to Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada. Perhaps they’ll challenge him, and perhaps he’ll make them pay.

What’s important is that A-Rod isn’t really a question mark anymore, everyone expects him to hit well in the ALCS this year, and if the rest of the lineup wakes up after a relatively quiet ALDS, they could pound the Angels.

Joba


Needing only three scheduled starters for the ALDS, Joe Girardi moved Joba Chamberlain into the bullpen for the first round, and while not the dominating force he was in 1997, he pitched well in all three games, leading to Girardi considering starting Gaudin in the first round should they need a fourth starter.

Joba in the pen pitching well gives the Yankees an embarrassment of riches in the bullpen. Mariano Rivera, Phil Hughes, Alfredo Aceves and David Robertson mean that the Yankees may not need to get more than a few innings out of Gaudin in a Game Four, and may even be able to shut down the Angels’ persistent attack in the late innings.

They don’t have midges in Los Angeles, right?

Home field advantage

Although a bit of a homer haven, Yankee Stadium wasn’t that extreme of a hitters’ park this season. It was particularly advantageous to left-handed hitters, and the Yankees can put out a lineup with seven of those. The Yankees were one of the better road teams in baseball, but at home they were the best, winning over 70% of their home games. The Angels, on the other hand, were only one game better at home than on the road, and the Yankees played them better in New York than LA.

That’s not to say that the Yankees will sweep at home, but it’s more likely that they’ll go 3-1 at home and win one of three in LA than it is that they’d have split 2 in LA and won two of three at home.

Frankly, it’s impossible to say that the Yankees will beat the Angels. There is a long history of frustration there for the Yankees, but starting the series with a couple of wins could make that a non-factor.

The Angels are a great team, a tough opponent, and a worthy challenge for the Yankees. If nothing else, it should be a great series to watch, but stressful for fans of both teams.

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It’s been almost five years, and the Yankees haven’t won a postseason series since. They went down in five to the Angels in 2005 and in four to the Tigers and Indians the following seasons. They finally missed the playoffs altogether last season. They lost for myriad reasons – because their defense was too porous, their rotation too shaky, their lineup too streaky. They were unable to keep the Angels down, unable to get up against the Tigers pitching, unable to concentrate in a swarm of midges.

Other teams have had similar postseason misfortunes, but with the Yankees' payroll and reputation, their first-round failings have been particularly embarrassing. Missing the playoffs last season hadn’t dulled expectations at all. With the Yankees, it’s World Series or bust, and tonight they start their quest to get back to the Fall Classic.

In baseball, there’s no such thing as a sure thing. The last team to win the World Series after posting the best regular-season record was the historically great 1998 Yankees, who are the only 100-win team since 1986 to win a ring. All of the opponents are good teams, they’re all playing to win every game at any cost, and there are three levels to conquer. The team with the best chance to win the World Series is still more likely to not win the World Series. That’s the nature of the game, where the most you can say about any team is that they’ll probably win – but they often don’t.

Keeping that in mind, things have been set up almost perfectly for the Yankees this year. Several weeks ago, it appeared certain that the Yankees would have to get past the Detroit Tigers in the first round, with Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello lined up and ready to shut down the Yankees just as the ’06 Tigers and ’07 Indians did. But the Tigers blew a seven-game lead in the final month of the season and were forced to a one-game playoff in Minnesota for the division title, where they were toppled in 12 innings by the Twins.

Just as with the Tigers and Indians in the last two postseasons, the Yankees rolled over the Twins this season, winning three straight come-from-behind walkoff victories in May on their way to a 7-0 head-to-head record. But it goes beyond that. Since Ron Gardenhire took over the Twins in 2002, the Yankees are an astonishing 47-16 against the Twins, including 22-11 at the Metrodome. It’s the worst record of any AL team against the Yankees during that stretch.

More than that, the Twins’ rotation has been thrown off kilter by the necessity to push the season to its absolute limit. Their nominal ace, Scott Baker, will only be available to start Game Three after starting the playoff game yesterday, leaving rookie Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn to start the other four potential games. Both pitchers have been strong down the stretch, but neither is the type of shutdown pitcher that teams covet in the postseason. Both are as likely to be knocked out in the early innings as they are to pitch a gem, giving the Yankees another decided advantage.

But the Yankees aren’t likely to win just because they lucked into the best possible opponent. They would be more likely than not to win no matter who their first-round opponent was, because they’re simply the best team in baseball.

The rotation isn’t the best by any means, but at least in the first round there are no pushovers. CC Sabathia is the ace the Yankees have sought for years. He has pitched in a dominant fashion, particularly down the stretch, and established the “automatic win” reputation that Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson never quite lived up to during their stints in New York. A.J. Burnett starts Game Two having given up two or fewer runs in five of his last six starts – something he has accomplished in more than half his starts this season. Andy Pettitte faces Baker in Game Three, having turned his season around at the All Star Break, going 6-3 with a 3.31 ERA the rest of the way. The only question mark in their rotation has been Joba Chamberlain, who with the eight-day series format won’t have to make a start in the first round, being relegated to the bullpen, where he was so dominant in 2007.

The bullpen has also developed into strength for the team, with Phil Hughes emerging as a dominant setup man after being moved to the bullpen in midseason, posting a 1.40 ERA with more than 11 K/9. Alfredo Aceves was able to put out fires in the middle innings, then stay in the game multiple innings to give the team a chance to climb back into the game, vulturing 10 wins along the way. David Robertson became a valuable middle reliever with 13 K/9 and a 4.7:1 K/BB ratio, and Phil Coke provided solid work as a LOOGY, but was rarely effective outside that role. And, of course, the incredible Mariano Rivera posted another near-perfect season, his 1.76 ERA giving him an incredible 1.87 ERA in 511 innings since he turned 33.

And finally, the lineup was unequivocally the best in the game. The offense led the majors in hits, homers, walks, OBP, SLG, and of course, runs scored. Their lineup features eight hitters with an OPS+ above 120, with the only batter who fell short of that – their No. 9 batter Melky Cabrera – still hitting above average for his position. The incredible depth led to an almost slump-proof lineup. Only once did the Yankees go more than two games without scoring four runs, and in that one three-game stretch, they won all three games. They scored fewer than three runs just 24 times all season. They scored 10 or more 23 times. It almost seemed commonplace for the team to go most of the game without being able to buy a hit, only to explode in the final innings, making many of their wins especially dramatic.

The lineup might be even more dangerous if Alex Rodriguez continues to play in the postseason as he did in the regular season, something he hasn’t been able to do since that fateful night in Boston. Helping Rodriguez is the three off days in the series, meaning that Game Four is the only time he’d have to play back-to-back games. Coming off his Spring Training hip surgery, Rodriguez was given regular days off during the season to recover, and his results coming off of that rest were incredible. In 23 games after a day off, Rodriguez batted .350 with seven homers and 28 RBI, with a .448 OBP and .675 SLG, for an otherworldly 1.123 OPS. The off days allow the Yankees to leverage their bullpen to maximum effect as well, being able to pitch Hughes and Rivera in multiple innings without having to worry about losing them for the next game in four of the five potential games. The Yankees could potentially get a combined three or more innings a game out of two pitchers who’ve combined for a 1.61 ERA out of the bullpen this season, essentially turning games into six-inning affairs in a way that the Yankees haven’t seen since Rivera-Wetteland in 1996.

The Yankees can only hope that the 2009 postseason turns out as well 1996 did, but the path before them is not an easy one. They’ll have to beat a Red Sox team that has played them tooth and nail all year or an Angels team that has been the bane of their existence since the late '90s to get to the World Series, and any opponent coming out of the NL will be a formidable challenge. Of all their challenges, the one the Twins offer will be the least difficult to overcome, but a challenge is presented anyway. They face the certain MVP of the league, a deep bullpen with an almost unhittable closer, a rotation that played a major role in the Twins’ epic comeback, and a lineup that can win games in every possible fashion. If momentum is a real thing, that certainly goes in the Twins’ favor. The overnight flight to New York won’t be a factor, as it is a turnaround that teams are making constantly during the regular season without suffering any noticeable consequences.

The Yankees are by no means a sure thing, but appear to be as close to one as there is in the first round. Still, a short series can turn on a single play, and even the worst player on the field can have a huge positive impact. But the Yankees have so many advantages, and so few disadvantages, it’s hard to say anything but it would be a surprise to not see them back in the ALCS, perhaps back in Fenway Park, trying to win that 40th pennant that slipped away five years ago.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Larry Mahnken 2009-10-07T06:06:15+00:00 Why the Yankees lost to the Indians http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-the-yankees-lost/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-the-yankees-lost/#When:04:10:15 Fausto Carmona was great, but the Yankees were also awful. Chien-Ming Wang was awful, but the Indians were also great. Blame goes hand-in-hand with credit, and you can’t place the responsibility for any event on one player—if someone failed, someone did something right to help them fail.

So why did the Yankees lose? Because they played poorly, and the Indians played well. Did they lose because the Indians had Carmona and Sabathia? Not any more than they lost because Chien-Ming Wang pitched two of the worst games of his career.

Joe Torre, no doubt, is gone now. Likely gone with him are Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Bobby Abreu, Roger Clemens, and perhaps some other stars. A new era is beginning in the Bronx, built around the kids. And it may well be a glorious era, but it is also not likely to be a successful one immediately. Unless some of the stars who I predicted to defect above stay with New York, you will not see the Yankees in October next year.

But that’s looking forward. Looking backwards, there is the matter of blame to be dished out. Everyone, of course, could have done more, but there are a few players in particular whose performances wounded the team, in some cases mortally.

Chien-Ming Wang: 0-2, 19.06, 5.2 IP, 14 H, 4 BB, 2 Ks, 3 HRs

You can stop right now, really. The Yankees lost because Chien-Ming Wang was awful, awful, awful. If he was okay in game one, they probably would have won. If he was okay in game four, they probably would have won. Instead, he made it nearly impossible for them to win either game—and they lost them both.

This isn’t really a problem of design: game one was the second-worst start of Wang’s career, game four was the ninth-worst. Maybe you’d like a better pitcher to start game one of a series, but there’s nothing really wrong with going with someone like Wang in that situation.

But the fact remains that Wang didn’t get his sinker down and couldn’t throw strikes, allowing the Indians to wait for and drive pitches up in the zone. Maybe there was something physically wrong with Wang, or maybe it was just bad luck two times in a row. The cause isn’t nearly as important as the results, which were disastrous.

Jorge Posada: .133/.235/.200, 0 RBI

After a career offensive season, Posada, who has rarely been a postseason factor in his career, had perhaps his worst playoffs ever. Not only did he hit horribly, but he failed to stop two blockable wild pitches in the eighth inning on Friday that allowed Grady Sizemore to advance to second and then score, taking a win away from the Yankees. That wasn’t entirely Posada’s fault, of course, but it was still a failing on his part.

Posada’s strikeout to end the season was possibly his late at-bat as a Yankee. After his spectacular regular season, Posada will be an attractive free agent to most teams, and the Yankees—despite not having any apparent replacement for him arriving any time soon—might be willing to let him leave. Posada might not be keen on returning anyway, with Joe Torre likely out the door.

Derek Jeter: .176/.176/.176, 3 H, 0 XBH, 0 R, 0 RBI, 0 BB, 3 GIDP

The Teflon Yankee has had awful postseason series’ before, but always seemed to redeem himself with a great series later on, or a big play in the bad series. Sometimes he did neither, but escaped blame for no other reason than his past successes.

It’s hard to see how Jeter can escape blame in this one.

He was a non-factor in games one and two, and despite a couple of singles early in game four, he may have sealed the team’s fate by killing a 1st-and-3rd one-out rally with a double play in the sixth. To be fair, Jeter has been hurt down the stretch, but even a hurt Jeter should do better than three singles, zero walks and three GIDPs.

Hideki Matsui: .182/.438/.182, 2 H, 0 XBH, 0 RBI

The five walks and four runs scored mask Matsui’s utter failure to be a useful hitter this series. Two singles and no RBIs were all he could muster, which was especially bad considering that he started the series as A-Rod’s protection.

Matsui can be a dangerous hitter at times, but he’s a mediocre fielder at best, and a terrible burden on the lineup when he’s slumping.

Joe Torre

This was probably Torre’s last game in pinstripes, and while it may not be fair that he’ll take the blame for this, he didn’t have a very good series.

In game one, he was too slow with the hook on Wang—it wasn’t a case of a guy getting unlucky that night, Wang was throwing bad pitches and getting properly punished for it. Torre should have lifted him after it was 4-1, brought in Hughes instead of Ohlendorf, and maybe given the team a chance. Instead, Ohlendorf turned a decent lead into a huge lead, and the game was over halfway through. Then Torre inexplicably brought Hughes in for mopup duty.

In game two, Torre probably should have had Rivera ready in the eighth and lifted Chamberlain after the first wild pitch. Chamberlain was wild all inning, clearly was struggling with the bugs, and the team couldn’t afford to give up a single run in that situation. Might they have lost anyway? Sure, Rivera would have had to get out of a runner-on-third with one out situation, but Torre should have recognized that right then was the most important out of the game, and Rivera, not Chamberlain, was the pitcher who should be trying to get it.

Finally, in game four he made the error of starting Doug Mientkiewicz over Jason Giambi. He justified it by saying that if Wang pitched well they could use the defense, but when Wang didn’t pitch well, they immediately needed the offense, and Torre stuck with Mientkiewicz anyway. And so a man who batted .500/.579/1.313 against the Indians this season got four plate appearances against them this series, all in the name of first base defense.

There are dozens of good reasons to not bring Joe Torre back. The Yankees’ loss this series isn’t one of them, but he had a bad series.

Alex Rodriguez: .267/.353/.467, 1 RBI, 1 XBH

A-Rod has been unfairly blamed disproportionately for the Yankees’ losses in 2004, 2005 and 2006, while somehow being ignored for his contributions in the 2004 ALDS. He finally got out of a huge postseason slump in the final two games of this series, but while he’s not the reason they lost, he could have done a lot more to help them win. Indeed, he probably could have carried them to victory with a slightly better performance in the right spots.

In game one, Rodriguez was walked in his two most important plate appearances, popping out with a runner on and two outs a runner on first. It was a solid game with little opportunity to make a difference – and ultimately anything he could have done wouldn’t have changed the outcome.

In game two, Alex struck out three times with runners on base, twice with a runner on second. A single in either of those two chances would have won the game, as would a double in the other one. A home run in any plate appearance of course would have had the same impact. It was a total failure by the offense that day, but you can’t completely discount A-Rod’s failure because of it.

They won game three, and he did fine, so there’s nothing to nitpick there.

In the elimination game he got an infield hit and a home run, but in the first inning when the team had a glorious opportunity to get back into it with two on and one out, he struck out swinging, killing the momentum.

Of all the “goats”, A-Rod is the least responsible for the team’s loss—but he had opportunities to make a difference with just a little success—a single, a double, even a walk in a couple of situations. By his own standards he didn’t have a great series, but it was definitely a solid one.

Most importantly for him, the pressure of hitting in the postseason is somewhat gone—he hit quite well his final two games, and there shouldn’t be many questions going forward—whether it be in New York or elsewhere. The biggest cause of his postseason struggles the past couple of season hasn’t been a lack of clutch ability, but a tendency to dwell on his failures. As his slump got worse, he dwelled on it more and tried too hard. With the four hits in two games, particularly the home run, he likely won’t dwell anymore, and wherever he plays his next postseason series, he’s likely to have a huge impact.

And thus ends the Yankees season. Had they won the AL East, it could have been remembered fondly by Yankees fans. As it was, they came back from well behind to even make it into October, but they let up down the stretch because they didn’t care how they got into the playoffs, so long as they go in. Without a division title, with a meek exit in the first round, and with a like Red Sox championship coming in the next few weeks, there will be little to remember fondly for Yankees fans in 2007.

But it’s probably the last October they’ll have for a little while. Maybe next time they’ll appreciate it more.

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The Indians come into this series with the Yankees holding a distinct advantage in starting pitching. Perhaps the Yankees are better equipped to win Games three and four than Cleveland, but in C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, the Indians have two legitimate Cy Young candidates, while New York’s only candidate is only one if you overvalue wins.

But what if the Indians lose game one or two? Just because one pitcher is better doesn’t mean they’re going to win, or even pitch well. That’s not a character thing, it’s just dumb luck. Sometimes you just don’t have it. Sometimes it happens in October.

Do I think the Yankees are going to beat the Indians? I really haven’t made up my mind yet. I know they can, and I hope they will, but they have a hard road ahead.

If the Indians get spectacular starting pitching in this series, they’ll probably win. But if they don’t get it, here are five reasons the Yankees will advance to the ALCS:

The monster that devoured Cleveland

"Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice-versa” – Casey Stengel

The 2006 Yankees entered the playoffs with “The Best Lineup Ever”. They lost in four games, scoring just 14 runs. But they were shut down by Kenny Rogers and Jeremy Bonderman, who aren’t quite what you think of when you imagine “playoff pitching.” No disrespect to those two guys, but it was basically a fluke that they got shut down like that right then. They shouldn’t have scored six or seven runs a game, but they should have scored more than what they did.

This season, the talent in the lineup is inferior to what they had in 2006, but it is still spectacular. The offense has been particularly explosive since the end of May, when they turned it all around. Over those last 112 games, they hit .298/.373/.480, averaging 6.3 runs a game.

They almost certainly won’t do that against Sabathia and Carmona, but they should score enough runs to win if Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte pitch well.

Take your rules and shove ‘em

Joba Chamberlain has been utterly dominant in relief since getting the call-up in August. His 1156 ERA+ this year was the highest ever by any pitcher to give up at least one earned run, and he really was that good.

To protect his future, the team instituted “rules” about how he could and would be used. Always to start an inning, no more than two innings, never two days in a row, and two days off if he threw 35 pitches.

In the season’s final week, they finally began to stretch him: bringing him in mid-inning, bringing him in with runners on, bringing him in on back-to-back days. It’s obvious that in the postseason they’re not going to let arbitrary rules keep him out of the game—only fatigue will. For Yankees fans, this should bring back memories of 1996, when Mariano Rivera and John Wetteland turned games into six-inning contests. If the Yankees get a lead, it could be game over.

There’s no place like home… your home, that is

The Indians have home-field advantage, but the Yankees probably don’t care about that. Since Jacobs Field opened in 1994, the Yanks have gone 39-22 in Cleveland during the regular season, the second-highest winning percentage they’ve had at any current AL ballpark—including Yankee Stadium. For some reason, the Yankees play well in Cleveland, and they’re not going to be bothered if they have to go there for a game five.

7 > 8

By choosing to play the eight-day division series, the Red Sox gave the Yankees a break. The Indians can still use Sabathia and Carmona four times, but they’d need to use Sabathia on short rest, which should make him a bit more hittable.

And if the Indians decide to save Sabathia for game five, the Yankees catch an even bigger break, taking their swings against a league-average pitcher, at best. Unless Mike Mussina is really terrible, they can and should win that game.

All Things Must Pass

Ultimately, the Yankees’ chances in this series, in the entire postseason, come down to one man: Alex Rodriguez.

For the first time since coming to New York, Rodriguez has met the expectations of Yankees fans. Of course, he had the best season of his career by a wide margin, which sums up how unreasonable the expectations were in the first place. And, of course, if he doesn’t have a good postseason, Yankees fans and the media will be on his case again.

A-Rod has done well in the postseason before, and he’s done well with the Yankees, but ever since giving them the lead in game four of the 2004 ALCS, he’s been 4-for-44 with one extra-base hit. His failures were a large part of the reason the Yankees lost their last three postseason series, and if he does it again, they’re doomed.

A-Rod will almost certainly come up with runners on base in this series. He’ll have a chance to make a difference, and if he takes advantage of those opportunities, the Yankees will probably win. If A-Rod has an OPS over 1.000 in this series, the Yankees will probably win. If he has a sub-.700 OPS, they almost certainly will lose.

The concept of being “due” is a false one, but it is true that Rodriguez is more likely to hit .300 in this series than .200. When he’s on, he can carry this team on his own. If he does it again, it could be a very happy October in the Bronx.


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Didn't I write this last year? Yes, yes, this is all very familiar. Just like last year, the Yankees took control of Game 1 early and held on for the win, then lost a two-run lead halfway through the second game. Bobby Abreu is scheduled to run over Johnny Damon in right-center sometime Sunday afternoon.

If the Yankees eventually lose this series, they lost it in the early innings of yesterday's game. They lost it when Derek Jeter, fresh off an MVP-worthy season and a 5-5 Game 1, tried to lay down a bunt on the first pitch he saw, instead popping up to Ivan Rodriguez. They lost it when they failed to bring home a single run with runners on first and second and nobody out in the second inning. In each of the first three innings of the game, the Yankees got the leadoff runner on. They should have scored at least one run over the three innings, they could have scored several. They could have put the game, and the series, away in the first few innings. Instead, they didn't score until Damon's two-out three-run homer in the fourth, and that was it.

You wanna blame Alex Rodriguez? Fine, blame A-Rod. He did strike out with the bases loaded in the first—but he struck out on two unhittable fastballs over the inside part of the plate and a spectacular curveball that started inside and broke into the strike zone. Gary Sheffield, on the other hand, who has done less to help the Yankees win a postseason series than A-Rod has, struck out two times himself, also stranded three runners, and killed a potential rally in the third with a double play. The upshot of moving A-Rod to the sixth spot in the lineup is that when he's failed, it's after those in front of him failed first. He didn't help them yesterday, but it's not his fault they lost.

You want to say the Yankees' great lineup got shut down by great pitching? If you're talking about the bullpen, you'd be right, but Justin Verlander, a very good pitcher, gave up 11 baserunners in just over five innings. Mike Mussina pitched better than him, but the difference was that Verlander's opponent let him off the hook. Mussina's didn't.

The Tigers made up for Tuesday's blown opportunities by not wasting the opportunities they got from Mussina yesterday. Five times the Tigers got a runner to second base, and they brought him home three times. But for horribly executed and poorly thought-out two-out bunt single attempt by Craig Monroe in the fifth, there were no real mistake by the Tigers on the offensive side of the ball. They didn't try to "make things happen" like they did in Game 1, thus costing themselves great scoring opportunities that could have panned out without trying to make anything happen, and simply trusted in their own ability to get the job done. Manager Jim Leyland has complained that many observers have treated the Tigers like they don't deserve to be on the same field as the Yankees, but in Game 1, Leyland managed like they didn't deserve to be on the same field, and needed to go to extraordinary lengths to somehow be competitive with this awesome juggernaut. Yesterday he let the team play, and in doing so, they proved that they belong.

And now, stunningly, the Tigers are in control of the series. Not just because they have home field advantage—though the Yankees have a better road record than the Tigers have a home record, and won three of four at Comerica earlier this season. No, the Tigers’ advantage is in that they don’t have to rely on Randy Johnson and Jaret Wright in the next two days. They don’t have to hope that an epidural injection will allow them to keep the game close, they don’t have to wonder who they’ll pitch in the sixth inning of Game 4 when their starter runs out of gas, no matter how well he pitches. They’re not running two aces out there, but in comparison to what the Yankees have, they might as well be. And the Yankees will have to find a way to win one of those two games to stay alive.

The Yankees do have one distinct advantage tonight, though. Detroit’s starter, Kenny Rogers has had a terrible postseason history. He nearly pitched the Yankees out of the playoffs three times in 1996, but three comebacks allowed the Yankees to win all three games. He was beaten twice in the 1999 NL playoffs before Game 6 of the NLCS, where, as the Mets were about to become the first team to ever erase a 3-0 playoff series deficit, he walked in the pennant clinching run without ever coming close. In his postseason career he’s 0-3 with a 8.85 ERA and 16 walks in 20.1 innings. As Michael Kay said in 1996, it’s amazing that Rogers took a perfect game into the ninth inning and didn’t walk anybody.

But it gets better for the Yankees, in a way. In 14 career starts against the Yankees, Rogers is 2-7 with a 8.14 ERA. His teams are 2-12 in those 14 games, with the last win coming on Aug. 17, 1993. Thirteen years ago.

And more pertinent to tomorrow’s game, the eight Yankees starters who’ve faced Rogers have a combined batting line of .375/.470/.763—and if the numbers are balanced so that each batter’s rate stats get an equal share of the total, that line jumps to .403/.474/.865. (The only Yankee never to face Rogers is Robinson Cano).

So even if the epidural injections Johnson has received don’t help, so long as Torre doesn’t keep an inffective Johnson in the game too long, the Yankees have a very good chance to win. And if they somehow don’t score off of Rogers, the credit for that should probably go squarely on their own shoulders.

And if Johnson gets bombed, and Rogers doesn’t; if the Tigers take the series lead with Jeremy Bonderman facing Wright at home on Saturday, the chances of this series going back to New York are slim. The Yankees play their most important game since a mid-August series in Fenway tonight. They swept all of those games. They’ll need to win this one too.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Larry Mahnken 2006-10-06T04:10:15+00:00 ALDS: Tigers vs. Yankees: Defining Moments http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/defining-moments/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/defining-moments/#When:04:12:15 Melky Cabrera, and thanks to two brilliant deadline deals by general manager Brian Cashman, went into October with a lineup with a legitimate claim to being the greatest ever assembled.

And if they don’t win the World Series, none of that will be remembered. The Yankees still live in the shadow of the 1990s, the second half of which they dominated in a way that few teams have since the last great Yankees dynasty in the mid-20th century. There have been some great moments, but there have been even greater moments in recent memory, none of them tainted with the sour taste of October defeat. It’s not necessarily a sense of entitlement. Rather, a hamburger doesn’t taste as good when you’re used to eating steak.

The Tigers haven’t had steak in a long time. A long, long time. The Tigers haven’t won a pennant in 22 years, or made the playoffs in 19. Their last winning season before this one was 1993, and they’d lost 90 or more games in eight of the last 10 seasons.

And yet, though not to nearly the same degree as the Yankees, how the 2006 Detroit Tigers are remembered will be determined by the postseason.

The Tigers exploded out of the gate, rolling to the best record in baseball while playing in probably the toughest division in baseball. At 76-36, they were already five wins ahead of their previous season total, already assured of their best season since 2000, their first in Comerica Park. And a division title, their first since 1987, seemed certain: they led the White Sox by 10 games, the Twins by 10.5.

And then it all fell apart. They lost the last two games of a home series to the Twins, got swept in Chicago, won two of three from a slumping Red Sox team, lost three of four at home to the Rangers, split four games with the White Sox, lost two of three to the Indians, and then lost two of three in Yankee Stadium—barely avoiding a sweep when Craig Monroe hit a two-out, two-strike, three-run homer in the ninth inning of the second game. Suddenly, on Sept. 1, they were 83-51, just 4.5 up on the White Sox, just five up on the Twins.

Still, they came into the final weekend of the season with a playoff spot assured, and the division title likely, with the Twins facing the White Sox, while they hosted the Royals, who they were 14-1 against. Unless the Twins somehow did better against Chicago than the Tigers did against the Royals, Detroit would win the division.

Do 50 games define a season? Do three? Does one? For the Tigers, 19-31 down the stretch—the worst final 50 games for any postseason team in history—0-3 at home against a 100-loss team, blowing a 6-0 lead on the final day of the season to lose the division—it may well define them. Tigers fans came out of the weekend with a sour taste in their mouths. On Aug. 7, the 2006 season was a triumph, even if they lost in October, even if they lost in the first round. Fifty games later, those first 112 games look like they may have been a fluke, because the Tigers of the last 50 games played like the Tigers of the last 5 years.

And so the next week will come to determine how 2006 is remembered. If the Tigers can make a good showing against the Yankees, let alone beat them, fans can go into the 2007 season knowing that this team really was that good, that the last third of the season, not the first two thirds, was the fluke. That it was worth it.

Game 1

So far… not so good. The Tigers had a chance early to take the lead on Chien-Ming Wang and the Yankees. In the top of the second, they had first and second with nobody out, but Ivan Rodriguez swung and missed on a hit and run, killing the lead runner, then went on to strike out, killing the rally. The next innin, Brandon Inge failed to advance the leadoff hitter from second to third with no outs, and Placido Polanco ended the threat with an inning-ending double play with Marcus Thames on third.

The Yankees finally broke through in the third. They’d stranded a runner on first in the first, and gotten two on with two outs in the second, but they exploded out of the gate in the third. Johnny Damon reached on an infield single, Derek Jeter doubled to left-center, and Bobby Abreu doubled them both home to give the Yankees the lead. But the relentless Yankees attack didn’t end there. Gary Sheffield singled Abreu home, and Jason Giambi clubbed the ball over the right field wall to open up a 5-0 lead.

The Tigers got back into the game in the fifth, adding to a Monroe leadoff homer with a two-out rally that drove home two more, making the score 5-3, but in the sixth, the Yankees put together a two-out rally of their own. After Damon singled to left-center, Jeter ripped the ball down the left field line to move Damon to third, but instead of throwing to second to keep Jeter at first, Monroe threw towards third, which allowed an alert Jeter to take the extra base and move into scoring position. Abreu’s second 2-RBI hit made them pay for the mistake, and instead of 6-3, it was 7-3.

To their credit, the Tigers never folded. After Mike Myers relieved Wang with two outs in the seventh, Curtis Granderson homered to make it 7-4, and two hits off Scott Proctor put runners on first and third for Magglio Ordonez. But Ordonez, who was the lead runner who was caught stealing on a double steal in the second and who had ended the two-out rally in the fifth, once again killed the rally, flying out to Damon in center. An eighth inning homer by Jeter, his fifth hit of the game, put the final nail in the coffin, and the Yankees won the game 8-4.

Nothing that happened last night does anything to disprove the notion that the Tigers are not as good as their record. Nate Robertson didn’t really pitch terribly, but he didn’t pitch that well, and the Yankees are too good a lineup to let a pitcher get away with that. They hit fairly well against quality pitching, but wasted opportunities to put runs on the board and gave no real indication that they can win this series without getting outstanding pitching, something they’ve had a difficult time providing lately.

However, unlike the other two losers on Tuesday afternoon, the Twins and Padres, they left Game 1 without there necessarily being a special sense of urgency to win Game 2. For one, unlike those teams, they didn’t have home field advantage before the game and a disadvantage after it. They didn’t lose with their best pitcher on the mound like the other two teams did, and more importantly, they didn’t have any great expectation of winning this game. They knew the could win, but to lose hardly deflates them. The Twins and Padres put themselves into near must-win situations, the Tigers simply missed an opportunity to put the Yankees in one.

But still, going into Game 2, this ALDS looks to be going like it was expected, the Yankees were just too much for the Tigers to handle. And while the loss doesn’t really add any pressure to the Tigers, it doesn’t help them redefine their 2006 season. To do that, they don’t need to win tonight. But they do need to make it closer.

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