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    <title>The Hardball Times -- Eric Hinz</title>
    <link>http://www.hardballtimes.com/main</link>
    <description>Baseball. Insight. Daily.</description>
    <dc:language>en</dc:language>
    <dc:creator>studes@hardballtimes.com</dc:creator>
    <dc:rights>Copyright 2013</dc:rights>
    <dc:date>2013-05-23T08:50:15+00:00</dc:date>
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    <item>
      <title>Confessions of a fantasy baseball addict:&amp;nbsp; Semi&#45;bailing</title>
       
<link>http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/confessions&#45;of&#45;a&#45;fantasy&#45;baseball&#45;addict&#45;semi&#45;bailing/</link>

<guid>http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/confessions-of-a-fantasy-baseball-addict-semi-bailing/#When:05:22:15</guid>
       
<description><![CDATA[For the past two weeks, I have focused on bailing and will continue to do so into a third week.  By now, you’ve likely seen the first couple bail trades and received notification from a couple other teams that they’re bailing, too.  The problem right now is the teams that have ended their 2009 seasons have likely scooped up what was easily available and dealt enough to bloat the rosters of a couple other teams.<br />
<br />
Despite the intentions of a couple more teams to bail, those competitive teams who didn’t luck out in round one of bail season have the same constraints (roster violations, cap problems, not as attractive cheap player) dealing with you, a third, fourth or fifth team to declare,  as they did with the first movers.  This leaves you sitting in lower half of the standings with no real chance to win it all but no chance to sink to the bottom for free agent priority.<br />
<br />
This is an uncomfortable place to be as your team can’t take the free-for-all risks on players the last place teams do nor can you expect to catch-up to the roster-enhanced teams at the top.  Likely, you have already lost out on <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/7287/carlos-gonzalez" title="Carlos Gonzalez ">Carlos Gonzalez </a>in free agent priority and stood no chance of grabbing the newest Washington Nationals closer <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=macdougal" class="player">Mike MacDougal</a>.<br />
<br />
What is needed, though rarely advised, is a strategy that straddles the fence between competing in 2009 and setting-up for a run in 2010 and beyond.  In real life, people understand that sitting on the fence of a two-sided battle leaves one open to crossfire from both sides.  In fantasy baseball, that knowledge leads many to conclude and/or advise that fantasy players should either go all out (Flags fly forever!) or quit entirely on the current season.<br />
<br />
These intuitively appealing conclusions are then buttressed by the math of expected payouts that provides the sheen of mathematical certainty.  If you decide the likelihood of finishing in the money is already small, the chance of winning everything is zero.  Multiplying that probability by the payouts for each money finish gives an expected payout. <br />
 <br />
An easier way to figure this, and the one I believe is more frequently employed, is a payback analysis.  If the first place finish is 10 times the entry fee, then one needs win just once every 10 years to break even.  Who isn’t confident they can win more frequently than that? So the decision to go for it all next season has been intuitively and mathematically justified.<br />
<br />
The monkey wrench is there are considerably fewer teams who can accept your out-of-time players and/or expensive keepers.  What do you do?  Many force a bail deal and end-up making trades that marginally look better for themselves only to see a piece get hurt, lose their job or get traded to the other league before 2010 rolls around.  This isn’t the best option.<br />
<br />
A better decision is to toss out the all-or-nothing, flags-fly-forever advise and the expected outcomes/payback analysis and semi-punt the season.  Yes, sit on the fence.  The question is how to execute this fence-straddling decision.<br />
<br />
First, the counting categories on offense are nearly impossible to semi-bail on because every team knows home runs, RBIs, wins, strikeouts and saves.  The place to look are the ratios categories.  These escape the simple math of “+1” involved the counting categories.<br />
<br />
Why?  Ratios are basically weighted averages, and these are not intuitively appealing but work very slyly to improve a team on both ends.    A ratio category worsens with every hit or walked allowed and every at-bat without an accompanying hit.  That provides three ways to improve: by adding players who are net gains, subtracting net losses and avoiding negative outcomes.<br />
<br />
Typically, this is easiest to do by dumping hitting in favor of pitching.  Given your unimpressive performance, you’re likely in the bottom half of the pitching ratios anyhow.  Every team has good hitters and understands them much better as a result of ease of counting math.  The difference between the bailing team’s hitters and the winning ones are just magnitude.  The teams at the top have 10 or more contributing hitters and those near the bottom have 7 or less due to inexplicable ineffectiveness (<a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/745/david-ortiz" title="David Ortiz">David Ortiz</a>), injury or lack of opportunity.<br />
<br />
What you do is look to deal your hitters for the other guys pitchers.  A three-or four-for-one trade that nets you Yovanni Gallardo sets-up a possible ratio run as time passes.  Given the ubiquity of the harmless middle reliever, you also begin to shed your mediocre starting pitching when you can’t trade it to set-up a synergistic situation that has you adding a high inning great ratios starter and avoiding high innings mediocre-to-bad ratios SP.<br />
<br />
Does this work?  Do you believe a team can successfully straddle between bailing and competing?  Have you done it, intentionally or not?<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/downloads/" target="new">Click here</a> to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]>

</description>
      <dc:creator>Eric Hinz</dc:creator>
      <dc:date>2009-06-08T05:22:15+00:00</dc:date>

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    <item>
      <title>Confessions of a fantasy baseball addict:&amp;nbsp; What about bailing?</title>
       
<link>http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/confessions&#45;of&#45;a&#45;fantasy&#45;baseball&#45;addict&#45;what&#45;about&#45;bailing/</link>

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<description><![CDATA[With the first two calendar months of the season in the books, the time to look towards next season is occurring whether one wants to or not.  Even if you think your team needs just a couple more weeks to recover, the other four or five teams at the bottom of the pack may think otherwise and make decisions that force your hand.  For standard leagues, this essentially means focusing on the upcoming fantasy football season.  For keeper leagues, though, it means something entirely different.  Well for at least the week or two it takes to restructure your roster for a run at the league championship in 2010.  In other words, bailing.<br />
<br />
Bailing is an interesting phenomenon in 2009.  The rules from the Official Rotisserie Baseball Handbook spoke specifically about player contracts in subsequent years.  Essentially, the game was intended to be of the keeper league variety and AL- or NL-only.  Then came the internet with its ease of standings calculation and free mixed leagues from internet service providers looking to bring eyeballs to their websites to bury traditional rotisserie baseball.<br />
<br />
Before long, the game of “rotisserie baseball” morphed in “fantasy baseball” and its most popular format was the mixed league re-draft version.  After several years of this, most participants playing fantasy baseball don’t know any better.  So bailing becomes just another phrase with no real meaning.<br />
<br />
For the hardcore minority who know only the “pure” version of the game, bailing brings all sorts of mixed feelings.  On one hand, you understand and accept it as a rational decision by those who see little chance of finishing in the money this season and look to improve those chances for the following season.  On the other hand, you know it destroys the competitive balance of the current season by juicing the teams who receive the players from the bailing team while watching the bailing team drop in the counting categories and give points to those teams who happened to be trailing the bailing team before hand.<br />
<br />
The question is how to balance the two competing forces.  Like water going downhill, teams in keeper leagues will find a way to prepare for the next season when they are no longer competitive in the current one. Mitigating the competitive destruction bailing wrought, or attempting to do so, is the goal.<br />
The unhip way to do it is to allow a free-for-all that puts no limits on who and what can be dealt from the bailer to the bailee.  Typically, this leads to a team dealing <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=pujols" class="player">Albert Pujols </a>and <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/1736/jose-reyes">Jose Reyes </a>for <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/8553/gerardo--parra">Gerardo Parra </a>and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=posey-001bus">Buster Posey</a>.  This is a scary environment and doesn’t ameliorate the corrosive and divisive effects of the bail.<br />
<br />
So the next to come is the in-season salary cap.  Essentially, the goal is not to unlopside the bail trade, but keep any one team from acquiring both Pujols and Reyes.  Instead, each goes to separate teams for a player whose future value (a combination of salary, ability and control) is greater than the current value of Pujols or Reyes.  This retains the freedom each team has to make whatever deal they feel best serves their future interests but prevents a team from supercharging his roster with two or three superstars.<br />
<br />
From this point, the subjective evaluations of the bailing team turn towards the subjective evaluations of the other teams.  Whether it is a commissioner veto or a league wide one, the teams not involved in the trade get final say on whether the bail trade moves forward. <br />
<br />
Or rules can be established prescribing a fixed amount of distance between teams in the standings determines who can and cannot trade or a fixed distance between players salaries/round drafted are set.  Penalties can also be assessed towards the teams who decide to violate these rules such as costing a team a draft penalties such as hits in draft order or salary cap.<br />
<br />
All these efforts are attempts to balance the ability of a losing team to construct a more successful team for the following season(s) versus the inherent unfairness of the bail trade.   All are also efforts to balance the subjective player valuations of the two teams involved in the bail trade versus those of the other six, eight, 10 teams in the league whose seasons are not completely sunk or hoping to still make a run for the Yoo-hoo.<br />
<br />
And that is how teams are compelled to think bail even if they do not want to do so.<br />
<br />
Are there solutions to the bail crisis or are there just not-as-bad options?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/downloads/" target="new">Click here</a> to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]>

</description>
      <dc:creator>Eric Hinz</dc:creator>
      <dc:date>2009-06-01T04:37:15+00:00</dc:date>

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    <item>
      <title>Confessions of a fantasy baseball addict: Bailing</title>
       
<link>http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/confessions&#45;of&#45;a&#45;fantasy&#45;baseball&#45;addict&#45;bailing/</link>

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<description><![CDATA[With Memorial Day here, bail season has officially opened.  No matter how true the assertion that 75 percent of the season remains, everyone treats this time of the season as the one to stop making fair offers to teams in the bottom third of the standings.  Whether those four teams think so or not, forces are aligned to make their bailing a self-fulfilling prophecy.<br />
 <br />
Because the top teams know bailing is near, the teams at the bottom cannot make trades to deal from their strengths to address their weaknesses because those top teams sense the fire sale on the horizon and don’t want to be stuck making an even swap when just a little more patience will yield two or three times as much in a bail trade. <br />
  <br />
A week passes, and the worst teams find themselves frustrated at their inability to complete a trade.   On top of this frustration, there was the previous two months of angst and doubt about their floundering squad.  So where does that leave a bottom team?  Entertaining the idea of bailing despite the fact that two thirds of the season remains.<br />
<br />
Once the first bail trade is executed, the chances for the other teams to compete just became harder as they are less likely to overcome a team who just juiced himself on a three-for-one deal: an out-of-time Ryan Howard, Michael Bourn and Brad Lidge for a super cheap Colby Rasmus, Garret Mock and Travis Ishikawa.  As a result, those teams begin prodding the other bottom feeders for their own three-for-one bail trade.<br />
<br />
That first bail trade is key.  Once consummated, the teams competing against the lucky bail recipient now want their own bail trades.  How can the other bottom teams improve after one of their own just broke their cartel and cut the best deal it could?  They can’t.  So another team bails.  Two of the top teams are now juicing.  And so on.<br />
<br />
Within a couple of weeks of Memorial Day, the hopes of teams waiting for their players to regress to their mean in a positive fashion while seeing those above them in the standings regress the other way  have been dashed with just a third of the season completed.  The juiced teams have locked in those gains and have set themselves up to continue the status quo.<br />
<br />
What can the few teams that are competing do against the juiced ones?  Hope their league rules are set-up to allow teams that finish just out of the money to get first dibs on minor leaguers recalled during the season or selected in the 2010 drafts.<br />
<br />
What if your league does a worst-to-first free agent pick-up and the Washington Nationals bring Steven Strasburg to the majors this season?  Well, the teams the bailed first and won the race to the bottom squeeze those unjuiced middle teams.  They are not in position to grab Strasburg this year but can’t compete against the bail recipients this season on free agent priority.<br />
<br />
The view is glum for those fantasy teams who find themselves in the bottom tier of their leagues, but a final four months of mediocrity looms thanks to all that bail season wrought.  Except for me.  My place in the cellar is only temporary.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/confessions-of-a-fantasy-baseball-addict-the-next-juan-pierre/" title="Last Week:">Last Week:</a>  I wrote about keeping an eye on some players who have been worthless so far, but stand to gain their pre-season expected value with a “fortuitous” turn of events.  None of the players are yet to get that “Pierre Opportunity.”   If I were bailing, I’d try to get those players are the roster filler portions of the deal.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/downloads/" target="new">Click here</a> to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]>

</description>
      <dc:creator>Eric Hinz</dc:creator>
      <dc:date>2009-05-26T07:26:15+00:00</dc:date>

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      <title>Confessions of a fantasy baseball addict:&amp;nbsp; The next Juan Pierre</title>
       
<link>http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/confessions&#45;of&#45;a&#45;fantasy&#45;baseball&#45;addict&#45;the&#45;next&#45;juan&#45;pierre/</link>

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<description><![CDATA[The Los Angeles Dodgers were rolling with an outfield of Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Andre Either.  All three were producing like elite outfielders, and there was no room for anyone else.  The player most despised by the sabre-punditry, <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=pierre" class="player">Juan Pierre</a>, was finally the sunk cost it vociferously advocated for,and his value in fantasy baseball was zero.<br />
<br />
Then Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games due to steroid usage.  Pierre zoomed from nothing to potentially becoming the player he had always been: a high contact, no power, all speed hitter.  <br />
<br />
With doubts present, Pierre has proven everyone wrong and hit over .400 since being given the chance to earn his $9 million salary.  In addition to hitting for a high average, he is stealing bases and getting extra-base hits.  There is little question that Pierre has recovered his fantasy value after sitting on his owners’ active roster for a month and contributing little.<br />
<br />
The question one wants to ask is who is the next player to go from zero to sixty and increase his fantasy value like Pierre did.   The top two players right now are Minnesota Twins outfielder <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=gomez" class="player">Carlos Gomez </a>and Texas Rangers catcher <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=teagarden" class="player">Taylor Teagarden</a>.<br />
<br />
Both entered the season as platoon players (Gomez with Delmon Young, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer and Teagarden with Jarrod Saltalamacchia) and both had the advantage of being considered better defensive players than their competition, making the expectation that Gomez and Teagarden would receive their fair share of at-bats reasonable.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately, both players have been relegated to back-up status.  Gomez appears to be the victim of Denard Span’s plate discipline, Michael Cuddyer’s veteran-ness and Delmon Young’s future trade value.  Teagarden appears to be sitting so that Saltalamacchia can get a last chance to prove his value as a hitter and improve his trade value.<br />
<br />
Gomez and Teagarden should both still meet expectations if they can get playing time. Gomez is still an excellent defender with tantalizing speed.  Full-time at-bats makes him a 30-plus steal player, and Teagarden still has the power and plate discipline to be a 15 home run, .260 average catcher.  Like the unforeseen Manny Ramirez suspension that made Pierre a legitimate fantasy contributor, all that is needed is an unforeseen event to make them valuable once more. <br />
<br />
Here are a few other players to watch along the same lines:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=belliard" class="player">1B/2B/3B Ronnie Belliard, Washington Nationals</a>:  Injuries all over the Nationals infield in 2008 allowed Belliard to prove his value and qualify at three positions for 2009.  His teammates' continuing good health stand in his way of doing the same in 2009. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=gonzalez" class="player">2B Edgar Gonzalez, San Diego Padres</a>:  As a 30-year-old rookie, Adrian’s older brother hit .274 with seven home runs in 325 at-bats.  The Padres decided to add veteran middle infielder David Eckstein and shift him to second full-time.  Whether the money spent outweighs the marginal improvement in defense seems immaterial given the Padres’ mandate to go cheap in 2009.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=velez" class="player">2B/OF Eugenio Velez, San Francisco Giants</a>:  The speedster was part of a three-headed spring competition with Kevin Frandsen and Emmanuel Burriss.  Burriss has received all the playing time at second while Velez has languished on the bench. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/confessions-of-a-fantasy-baseball-addict-panic-time/" title="Last Week:">Last Week:</a>  I advocated not panicking on established players who have struggled so far.  The debate turned towards a hypothetical sell high of <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=young" class="player">Michael Young</a> for <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=peralta" class="player">Jhonny Peralta</a>.  From Sunday to Saturday, Young went 11-for-22 with a steal and two RBIs, and Peralta went 13-for-27 with six RBIs.<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/downloads/" target="new">Click here</a> to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]>

</description>
      <dc:creator>Eric Hinz</dc:creator>
      <dc:date>2009-05-18T05:53:15+00:00</dc:date>

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      <title>Confessions of a fantasy baseball addict:&amp;nbsp; Panic time</title>
       
<link>http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/confessions&#45;of&#45;a&#45;fantasy&#45;baseball&#45;addict&#45;panic&#45;time/</link>

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<description><![CDATA[As most hitters have accumulated over 100 plate appearances, many fantasy leaguers are beginning to see their players’ good and/or bad starts to the 2009 season as indicative of the 2009 full season performances.  This is normally the point where all the patience exercised in the first 20 percent of the season will be spent, and it is the worst time to panic, no matter how bad <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=peralta" class="player">Jhonny Peralta</a>, <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=ortiz" class="player">David Ortiz</a>, <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=tulowitzki" class="player">Troy Tulowitzki</a>, <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=rollins" class="player">Jimmy Rollins </a>or <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=kouzmanoff" class="player">Kevin Kouzmanoff </a> look right now. <br />
<br />
Of course, if you play in a mixed league, there is a lot less to worry about as you are likely (should be) sitting most of these players.  Or have the option to do so thanks to a relatively deep pool of full-time players.  Boo hoo, you have to start <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=guzman" class="player">Christian Guzman</a> until Jimmy Rollins begins to heat-up.  <br />
<br />
In AL- and NL-only leagues, want to sit Peralta?  Assuming you even have the option to reserve an active player, who you sending in?  <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=cedeno" class="player">Ronny Cedeno</a>?  <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=hernandez" class="player">Luis Hernandez</a>?  Good luck with that!  This is why the option to sit any struggling player is close to nil, and the temptation to sell low is nearly impossible to resist.  <br />
<br />
Once a single league fantasy player capitulates on a Peralta, an even more detrimental situation persists.  No matter how frequently the fantasy baseball punditry says you should “buy low,” no one wants to do it.  As a matter of fact, those same people who won’t buy low and also won’t  “selling high”.  Are you dealing <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=young" class="player">Michael Young</a> for Jhonny Peralta?  <br />
<br />
Five weeks ago, you wouldn’t touch it thanks to the dearth of power amongst the American League shortstops.  Now that Michael Young has hit eight home runs to Peralta’s one long ball, you’re terrified of acquiring Peralta despite his being younger and demonstrating 20 home run power more frequently over the past couple seasons than Young has.<br />
<br />
So what happens?  The panicking owner of Jhonny Peralta is compelled to settle for a sell-high player like <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=chavez" class="player">Endy Chavez</a> because Endy is likely to play every day, hit around .300, steal 30-plus bases and hit a handful of home runs, because that is what the 31-year-old career defensive replacement has done on a pro-rated basis this season and Peralta has caused too much agita for too long already. <br />
<br />
Once the deal is consummated, it is quickly followed by Peralta hitting four homers in the next 10 games while Chavez justifies his career part-timer status with a 2-25 bender that ends in a couple days off from his manager “to clear his head.”<br />
<br />
How can you avoid committing this too common mistake in an AL- or NL-only league?  Look at the team willing to deal Endy Chavez (or any player who's been hot for 100 at-bats) and ask yourself, "If Peralta had four home runs right now, who would I accept for him in a trade?"  If the team doesn’t have enough to make you consider an offer, then hold Peralta and wait for the player the other team offered to cool.  By then, you will have likely seen a flip in the standings.<br />
<br />
Selling low in an AL/NL-only league means death especially if the player you acquired was sold high to you in the deal as you have locked in one players worst spell of the season while missing out on the other's best.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/confessions-of-a-fantasy-baseball-addict-picking-up-the-hyped-prospect/" title="Last Week Follow-up:">Last Week Follow-up:</a>  I argued last week that mixed leaguers shouldn't be rushing out and picking-up the hot prospect.  While this is general advice, the Cleveland Indians' recalled one of the top power prospects in the minor leagues in <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=laporta" class="player">OF Matt LaPorta</a>.  He certainly fits the bill and went 2-for-13 with a home run. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/confessions-of-fantasy-baseball-addict-who-is-the-really-back-up-closer-in-/" title="Double follow-up:">Double follow-up:</a>  Two weeks ago, I identified <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=wright" class="player">RHP Jamey Wright </a> as a speculative pick in AL-only leagues for saves .  On Saturday, Royals manager Trey Hillman said <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=cruz" class="player">Juan Cruz</a> and Wright would lead a committee of closers while <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=soria" class="player">Joakim Soria </a>deals with his recurrence of shoulder discomfort.<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/downloads/" target="new">Click here</a> to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]>

</description>
      <dc:creator>Eric Hinz</dc:creator>
      <dc:date>2009-05-11T05:59:15+00:00</dc:date>

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      <title>Confessions of a fantasy baseball addict:&amp;nbsp; Picking up the hyped prospect</title>
       
<link>http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/confessions&#45;of&#45;a&#45;fantasy&#45;baseball&#45;addict&#45;picking&#45;up&#45;the&#45;hyped&#45;prospect/</link>

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<description><![CDATA[Saturday saw one of the most anticipated call-ups of the 2009 season.  The Cleveland Indians recalled one of the games top right-handed power prospects, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=laport001mat" target="new">OF Matt LaPorta</a>.  And promptly sat him on the bench so lefty hitting <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=dellucci" class="player">Dave Dellucci </a>could DH against right-hander <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=miner" class="player">Zach Miner</a>.<br />
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A week and a half earlier, the Los Angeles Angels saw their top power threat, <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=guerrero" class="player">OF Vladimir Guerrero</a>, go on the disabled list with a torn pectoral muscle.  With the team’s top power prospect <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodbr01.shtml" target="new">Brandon Wood </a>ripping up Triple-A, many in the baseball and fantasy industry saw his recall inevitably leading to the full-time at-bats we richly believed he deserved.  Instead, manager Mike Scioscia batted the likes of <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=izturis" class="player">Macier Izturis </a>and <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=quinlan" class="player">Robb Quinlan </a>in the three-hole and/or at DH and has used Wood in just three games over that period.<br />
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Other than the excitement of rostering the next hyped rookie, playing time enigmas like Wood and LaPorta mean close to nothing to the typical mixed league player.  With an abundance of free agent hitters in the player pool, there is nothing to compel the mixed leaguer to add a player whose professional production consists entirely of rosy projections rather than one whose production has been demonstrated at the major league level.<br />
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In single league formats, though, rostering the next hyped rookie is imperative.  With a player pool consisting of little used back-up catchers, fifth outfielders and obligatory back-ups in the middle infield, there exists only the potential of rosy projections.  Even when those projections prove to be more thorn than rose, fantasy players in AL- and NL-only leagues still get more production than otherwise was freely available.<br />
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Addtionally, the AL/NL-only player cannot allow a potential full-time player to go to a competitor's team because the free agent pool already reflects the number of these players at any one time: zero.  Very rarely are there more than a team or two in an AL/NL Only league who doesn't have a dead spot on their active roster.  A typical mixed league free agent pool is filled with multiple starting players at each available positions, and every team has everyday players on their active rosters<br />
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Because the opportunity cost for hyped rookies is so low in AL- and NL-only leagues (losing nothing relative to the freely available players nor by cutting productive active players), getting excited about the chance to add a Brandon Wood or Matt LaPorta becomes an event in fantasy baseball.  The question that remains unanswered at this point is why an industry currently dominated by mixed league formats generates any excitement at all about a prospect.<br />
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Others call-ups to watch who can still help AL- and NL-Only leaguers without a marquee role:<br />
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<b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gamel-001mat" target="new">3B Mat Gamel, Milwaukee Brewers:</a></b>  The lefty masher is toying with Triple-A the way Matt LaPorta did.  The Brewers currently play Craig Counsell at 3B against left-handed starters.  Gamels’ bat would seem to be quite an improvement over that.  Left sides of platoons make for quality options in single format leagues.<br />
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<b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=bard--001dan" target="new">RP Daniel Bard, Boston Red Sox:</a> </b> The converted starter does nothing but strike out hitters or keep the ball on the ground (23 strikeouts in 13.2 innings with a 2.20 GO/FO ratio at Triple-A).  He has no chance at closing in Boston but has the type of arm that makes LIMA adherents drool.  Mixed leaguers need not apply.<br />
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<b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/venabwi01.shtml" target="new">OF Will Venable, San Diego Padres:</a></b>  The Padres have outfield at-bats for the taking.  First baseman Kyle Blanks would be a no-brainer NL-only grab if the Padres played him in the outfield.  That doesn’t seem likely as he only plays there before Triple-A games and not during them.  Venable, however, is the starting center fielder and could help NL-only teams if recalled.<br />
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<b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=maxwel001jus" target="new">OF Justin Maxwell, Washington Nationals:</a></b>  In a week long stint with the Nats, Maxwell stole three bases to remind fantasy leaguers of the 27 home run, 35 steal season he had between Low- and High-A in 2007.  There doesn’t appear to be anywhere for Maxwell to play with Lastings Milledge awaiting the end of his Triple-A banishment and Elijah Dukes currently in center field for the Nats.  This would prevent any mixed leaguer from adding him, but NL-only ones can benefit from 10 at-bats per week if they come with a steal and a home run every other week.<br />
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<b><a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/confessions-of-fantasy-baseball-addict-who-is-the-really-back-up-closer-in-/" target="new">Last Week Follow-Up</a>:</b>  Kansas City Royals middle reliever Jamey Wright pitched in the ninth inning of a 9-1 loss and the eighth inning of a couple games but did not pitch in the ninth of any of the four games the Royals won while closer Joakim Soria was recovering.  Juan Cruz received the only save opportunity and converted it successfully.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/downloads/" target="new">Click here</a> to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]>

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      <dc:creator>Eric Hinz</dc:creator>
      <dc:date>2009-05-04T06:23:15+00:00</dc:date>

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      <title>Confessions of  fantasy baseball addict:&amp;nbsp; Who is really the back&#45;up closer in Kansas City</title>
       
<link>http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/confessions&#45;of&#45;fantasy&#45;baseball&#45;addict&#45;who&#45;is&#45;the&#45;really&#45;back&#45;up&#45;closer&#45;in&#45;/</link>

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<description><![CDATA[Single league format fantasy baseball leagues, henceforth known as AL-only and NL-only leagues,  have proven to be less popular than their younger, more prolific mixed league cousins. Whether this is good or bad is a question of personal taste, as each has its pluses and minuses.<br />
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When playing in an AL- or NL-only leagues, one is compelled to know more about every team than one does playing in a mixed league.  Exactly who cares about <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=Erstad" class="player">Darin Erstad</a> (anymore) or the necessity of rostering <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=Berroa" class="player">Angel Berroa</a>?  How you answer that question is a good predictor of whether you prefer mixed leagues or AL- and NL-only ones.<br />
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I want to know about both players and make roster decisions based on each.  That is why I prefer AL- and NL-only leagues.  The rationale behind adding, reserving, waiving and keeping players of Erstad’s and Berroa’s ilk will be the weekly focus of Confessions of a Fantasy Baseball Expert.<br />
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For what it's worth, Erstad’s value derives from the possibility of <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=Bourn" class="player">Michael Bourn</a> repeating as the hitting version of <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=Chacon" class="player">Shawn Chacon</a> (a one-category player whose additional category contributions are complete negatives) and the Astros proclivity for veteran players regardless of on-the-field production.<br />
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2004 Shawn Chacon: 35 Saves, 7.11 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 1 W, 52 K<br />
2008 Michael Bourn:  41 SBs,  .229 AVG, 5 HR, 29 RBI, 57 Runs<br />
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Friday afternoon brought the announcement, signalled by the previous eight day’s of non-use, that Kansas City Royals’ closer <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=Soria" class="player">Joakim Soria </a>will miss at the next three to five days to rest shoulder discomfort.  While this sent mixed leaguers looking to add <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=cruz" class="player">Juan Cruz</a>, the AL-only player had to dig deeper as Cruz was taken at the draft as was everyother likely back-up closer.<br />
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The challenge presented to the AL-only player is finding the next next in-line closer.  This is difficult because most peripheral statistical analysis has already identified the reliever most likely to succeed and become the closer at the first opportunity.  Hence, Juan Cruz and his 12.8 K/9 is typically enough.  Missed by most fantasy leaguers was Cruz’ declining GB%. The complement, in the geometric sense, of a declining GB% is an increasing LD%/FB%, neither of which are positives for any pitcher much less one who is supposed to preserve wins in the 9th inning.<br />
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As one can see, 2009 has continued the trend with early concerns in an increased HR/G and HR/F.<br />
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<pre>   Year     Tm     LD%     GB%     IF/F    K/G     BB/G    HR/G   *HR/F    P/PA    LOB%
  2004    ATL    20.20%  44.60%  10.30%    9      3.9     0.9    11.60%    4     82.50%
  2005    OAK    19.20%  45.50%  17.10%   8.2     5.3     1.2    17.20%   3.8    54.40%
  2006    ARI    22.90%  39.90%  9.40%    8.3     4.4     0.66   7.90%     4     72.50%
  2007    ARI    18.50%  34.80%  7.90%    12.9    4.8     1.04   11.30%   4.3    74.80%
  2008    ARI    15.70%  26.90%  6.50%    12.8    5.6     0.9    8.10%    4.6    83.60%
  2009     KC    28.60%  28.60%  22.20%   6.5     5.2     1.3    15.40%   4.4    89.30%</pre><br />
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So the question is who is next in line?  I know this is unanalytical, but <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=Farnsworth" class="player">Kyle Farnsworth </a>is dismissed out of hand.  As a Yankees fan, I know he is reliable for just one thing: a home run at the wrong time.  As a matter of fact, the two taters Farnsworth has served this season both resulted in Royals losses.<br />
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There exist two additional options that playing in an AL-only league would force one to explore.  Both are failed starting pitchers who arrived in Kansas City via horrible environments for starting pitchers.  <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=wright" class="player">RHP Jamey Wright</a> arrived via free agency after being converted to relief pitching by the Rangers last season, while <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=Tejeda" class="player">Robinson Tejada</a> came to Kansas City after Texas gave-up on the then-26 year-old when couldn’t strikeout enough batters to overcome some atrocious control (5.9 K/9 versus 5.1 BB/9).<br />
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Tejeda offers the the one peripheral skill most fantasy leaguers desire in a potential closing find: a high K/9.  For Tejeda, the move from the rotation to the bullpen had a gamma rays exposure-like effect on his strikeout rate.  As a starter, he struck out a fewer than six per nine innings.  Once he went to the bullpen, that rate skyrocketed to more than 10 per nine innings with the early 2009 results showing an astronomical 16.3 per nine innings!<br />
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That would typically be enough to tilt the typical owner into deciding to add Robinson Tejeda from the free agent pool in a saves gamble.  But hold on!  Tejeda has not managed to get any control of his walk rate in his move to the bullpen.  Apparently, that gamma rays exposure had the same effect on Tejeda as it did on Bruce Banner: incredible strength with minimal control!  Nevermind the distressing GB%.<br />
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<pre>  Year     Tm      Lg     LD%     GB%     IF/F    K/G     BB/G    HR/G   *HR/F    P/PA    LOB%
  2005    PHI      NL    20.90%  35.70%  13.70%   7.4     5.3     0.52   5.10%     4     75.60%
  2006    TEX      AL    17.50%  37.10%  10.50%   4.7     3.7     1.17   9.10%    3.8    75.00%
  2007    TEX      AL    14.30%  35.00%  13.80%   5.9     5.1     1.45   12.30%   3.9    64.40%
  2008    TEX      AL    30.00%  25.00%  11.10%   5.3     6.6     1.33   12.00%   4.7    46.50%
  2008     KC      AL    17.70%  34.40%  19.60%   10.1    4.7     0.74   8.70%    4.1    66.10%
  2009     KC      AL    0.00%   16.70%   N/A     16.3    9.8      0     0.00%    4.4    88.90%</pre><br />
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This leaves Jamey Wright as the logical free agent saves gamble from the Kansas City bullpen.  Jamey Wright has one particular skill that makes him the attractive option to close in the event Joakim Soria’s shoulder is more serious than the team is currently letting on.  Wright has a GB% in excess of 60 percent. <br />
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In addition, his K/9 was an acceptable 6.1 in 2007.  So far in 2009, Wright has upped that to 7.1 and decreased his BB/9 from last season’s 3.6  to 1.2.  This is the kind of statistical discovery that makes fantasy owners’ days!<br />
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<pre>  Year     Tm     LD%     GB%     IF/F    K/G     BB/G    HR/G   *HR/F    P/PA    LOB%
  2004    COL    22.30%  49.80%  17.60%   4.4     4.8     0.86   11.40%   3.8    77.20%
  2005    COL    20.30%  52.70%  7.10%     5       4      1.08   13.30%   3.5    66.90%
  2006     SF    18.40%  58.10%  8.30%    4.5     3.7     0.92   15.30%   3.5    66.80%
  2007    TEX    17.20%  54.80%  11.90%   4.6     4.8     0.7    10.00%   3.8    75.70%
  2008    TEX    19.60%  61.90%   N/A     6.1     3.6     0.51   9.60%    3.8    61.20%
  2009     KC    13.00%  65.20%  20.00%   7.3     1.2     1.22   26.90%   3.2   107.10%</pre><br />
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Right now, you’ve got one of two reactions depending on your fantasy format preference.  Either you feel you have lost 10 minutes of your life that you can never recover or you are readying to click over to your fantasy league website(s) to add Jamey Wright.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/downloads/" target="new">Click here</a> to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]>

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      <dc:creator>Eric Hinz</dc:creator>
      <dc:date>2009-04-27T05:05:15+00:00</dc:date>

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