http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2012 2012-02-10T11:32:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/how-much-is-your-fantasy-team-worth/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/how-much-is-your-fantasy-team-worth/#When:06:24:15
Maybe the answer holds some clues toward how we should begin to approach fantasy team valuations.

In past decade, there’s been tremendous advancements in sabermetrics, forecasting services like PECOTA, and player evaluation punditry. We’re even getting close to figuring out the worth of individual players to fantasy teams using value-above-replacement metrics or the parallax method that THT’s John Burnson described this month.

But how about a fantasy team? How much is your team worth?

If you play in a money league, obviously it’s not worth the same as it was the first day of the season. If you invested $100 in a 12-team team league and you’re close to winning $1000, maybe your team is worth several multiples of what you first invested. Conversely, if you invested $100 and your team is languishing in last place, maybe it’s worth nothing.

Allow me to get fanciful for a moment.

Imagine a derivatives market where buyers and sellers of fantasy teams got together during the course of a season to sell futures contracts. Successful teams might look to hedge against unpredictable bad luck and injuries by selling a stake in their team. Unsuccessful teams might look to recover any investment by selling a share in their sinking team to speculators.

Maybe just as importantly, during the course of a season, a team’s fluctuating share price could be an indication of whether a fantasy owner needs to become more active making moves or sit back and let luck normalize.

Who knows whether an idea like this is actually feasible. Would there be enough liquidity in the market to actually get it off the ground? What sorts of information would an owner need to report about his teams so that others could properly analyze the team's financial prospects?

Those are just some questions:

But it’s an idea we think holds potential. Hell, if someone can offer fantasy sports insurance, a derivative market can't be that far away.

We’re curious to hear any innovation you’d like to see in the fantasy sports marketplace. Leave them in the comments section below.

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What do you think has a greater impact on one’s ability to win a fantasy baseball league: player evaluation or strategy?

Most of the responders seemed to believe that evaluation was the more crucial skill. However, if the question was adjusted to consider just the final two weeks of the season in a tight, competitive fantasy league, would the responders adjust their answers?

I hope so.

Most competitors in most leagues are out of competition by now. With only a dozen or so games to go, player evaluation is mostly directed at recapping the season or discussing the next one. Football has started, and many fantasy enthusiasts have directed their efforts in that direction.

But if one is lucky enough to be involved in a close, thrilling finish, there can be an enormous amount of strategic gamesmanship involved.

In some leagues, we witness variants of old game theory problems including “Prisoner’s Dilemma” and “Chicken:” What’s the other person thinking I’m thinking? If your team and your closest competitor are locked in a tight struggle for both ERA and strikeouts, for example, it helps to know if you’re competitor is going to aggressively make a lot of starts to chase strikeouts or conservatively protect ERA. Otherwise, making a lot of starts without your competitor doing the same could put ERA at risk.

In other leagues, we might see competitors unwittingly measure the economic advantages and disadvantages of hoarding. If you hold a dominant position in steals, for instance, and nobody else in your league can come close to touching you in that category, does it make sense to hold onto a speedster like Michael Bourn or release him for needed help in other categories? What if your main competitor has room for points growth in steals and is No. 3 on waiver wire priority? Do you take the risk of letting him have your player?

The final few weeks of the season can be the time of the year when competitors pursue wild strategies. For example, a team focused on maintaining a small lead in a ratio category like AVG, ERA, or WHIP above all else may pare down their active roster to the bare minimum.

Conversely, a team desperate for a few wins as the maximum innings limit approaches may attempt to grab as many spot starters as they can on that final day they reach—and surpass—the innings limit. (Most fantasy service providers will allow a fantasy team to go above the maximum amount of innings that final day.)

Let’s not forget pleading and nudging as an appropriate strategy. In Tout Wars AL this year, Mike Siano of MLB and Lawr Michaels of Creativesports.com are in a tight battle and Siano is browbeating other owners in the league to put their best foot forward.

Almost everything is fair when a title is on the line. But pay attention to the strategy involved.

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Two years later in 2008, Kemp started to show more consistency at the plate and earned regular at-bats. I traded for him and he was unbelievably productive for my team. In the midst of a championship run, however, I decided to cash him in by trading his keeper value for a bevy of superstars who helped me win a title.

At the time, I had Alex Rios on my team and noted the amazing similarity in the statistical profile of Kemp and Rios. Last year, Kemp had 18 HR, 35 SB, 93 R, 76 RBI, and a .290 BA. Meanwhile, Rios had 15 HR, 32 SB, 91 R, 79 RBI, and a .291 BA. The two were virtual clones.

This season, Kemp has taken a monumental leap forward whereas Rios has totally lost the good will of the fantasy community.

The Dodgers outfielder is approaching a 25-35 season with a batting average over .300. He’s been tremendously valuable, and fantasy pundits from Ron Shandler to RayGu have started to hype him as a viable top-five player overall going into the 2010 season.

Not so fast, I say.

I believe there are several reasons to still be slightly cautious about Kemp going forward. Obviously, Kemp is still young (he’s turning 25 next week so happy birthday, Matt) and has the ability to improve—a factor that no doubt counts in his favor. Yet, I see Kemp as being the type of player who carries far more risk than many people acknowledge.

Strikeouts/Batting Average: This season to date, Kemp has struck out 126 times and walked 48 times in 593 plate appearances. His strikeout rate (23.4%) is very high and his walk rate (8.2%) is below average. With a .305 BA, it’s evident that he’s getting quite lucky on balls in play (.362). Throughout his career, Kemp has maintained a high BABIP and according to the xBABIP calculator, he’s due a .337 xBABIP. Still, that’s 25 points of good luck in the average department. How would Kemp look if he only sported an average in the .270/.280 range?

Troubles versus right-handed pitchers: Kemp has some of the most noticeable handedness splits in all of baseball. One of the major factors behind his success this season has been utter domination of left-handed pitchers. He’s hitting .381/.451/.669 versus lefties compared to just .283/.335/.452 against righties. A closer look at the splits reveals a very good batting eye versus left-handers (16 strikeouts to 15 walks) and a horrible batting eye versus right-handers (110 strikeouts to 33 walks). His splits suggest room for some regression downward against righties, unfortunately. Opposing managers would also be wise to either avoid pitching left-handers against him or, when they do, walk him intentionally. After all, Kemp rarely steals when a left-handed pitcher is on the mound.

Power: Kemp hit 18 HR last year. Currently, he’s got 23 and counting. Many scouts projected he’d have 40 HR upside and the growth trends are encouraging. Still, his Isolated Power percentage is only .195—the territory of Hunter Pence, Mike Cameron, and Marlon Byrd. Furthermore, as long as he remains a member of the LA Dodgers, he’ll have to battle the power valley that is Dodger Stadium, particularly unkind to right-handed sluggers.

Speed: As mentioned above, Kemp is on a path toward surpassing 35 SB this season, an extraordinary achievement for a player who is 6-foot-3 and approximately 225 pounds. Players measuring those dimensions aren’t typically speed demons and when they do surpass 30 SB, as Alex Rodriguez did in 1998, it tends to be followed by a few years of more moderate steals production. In 2006, Baseball Prospectus writer Kevin Goldstein wrote this about the then-prospect outfielder: “At 230 pounds, Kemp’s plus speed could dissipate quickly.” Reportedly, Kemp showed up to spring training this year in excellent condition, and his success rate on the base-paths this year (81%) show no cause for concern, yet we’ve likely seen the best from Kemp in the steals department.

Positional scarcity: People will disagree about the level of depth next year at outfielder, but in my mind, it’s pretty deep. For instance, take PECOTA’s No. 1 most comparable player to Matt Kemp—Hunter Pence. He won’t go in the top seven rounds, in all probability. With batting average regression and less speed, Kemp could easily fall back into Hunter Pence/Alex Rios/Corey Hart territory. These players will carry about as much upside but a lot less risk thanks to depressed valuations. Kemp, on the other hand, has become a fantasy darling and that could be reason to stay away.

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I feel this is much too low for the Twins backstop. In fact, I believe he deserves serious consideration as the top pick overall. After all, he might be this season’s fantasy MVP.

Whether you find this statement ridiculous or not may depend on your view of weighting value according to position. Over the years, positional weights have been measured in various ways (VORP, WARP, Win Shares, etc.) but in terms of fantasy, here’s how I’d describe it: If your catcher outproduces your competitor’s catcher by 10 HR, your competitor has to field a lineup that outproduces your lineup by 10 HRs at the other positions just to stay even.

As of Sunday, here’s Joe Mauer’s line on the season: 25 HR, 79 RBI, 77 R, 3 SB, and a .367 AVG

How extraordinary is this?

Well, let’s compare Joe Mauer to the 11 other most-owned catchers in CBS Sports fantasy leagues: Victor Martinez, AJ Pierzynski, Mike Napoli, Kurt Suzuki, Jorge Posada, Brandon Inge, Miguel Montero, Bengie Molina, Russell Martin, Matt Wieters, and Ryan Doumit.

These 11 players averaged these totals as of last Sunday: 13 HR, 52 RBI, 47 R, 2 SB, and a .271 AVG

Joe Mauer has outproduced the average catcher in a 12-team league by 12 HR, 27 RBI, 30 R, 1 SB, and 96 points in batting average.

Ask most people who is the fantasy MVP in 2009 and undoubtedly the answer is Albert Pujols.

I also compared Pujols’ numbers to these 11 first baseman: Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis, Justin Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez, Derrek Lee, Joey Votto, Carlos Pena, and Lance Berkman.

Pujols outproduced his peers on average by 12 HR, 22 RBI, 28 R, 11 SB, and 32 points in batting average.

Close, but Mauer has got a very slight edge.

Consider the fact too that all of Pujols’ peers were owned from day one this season. In contrast, many fantasy teams didn’t get the best from Brandon Inge, Miguel Montero, and Kurt Suzuki. Instead, they suffered through disappointing returns from Geovany Soto, Chris Iannetta, and Ramon Hernandez. Mauer’s edge over the average catcher in a fantasy league grows.

Even more extraordinary is the fact that Mauer didn’t play his first game of the season until May 1. But owners of Joe Mauer probably were playing someone else, and even if that temp produced a modest line in April like 2 HR, 9 R, 9 RBI, these are stats that can be counted towards Mauer’s owner’s ledger.

Many people involved in fantasy baseball tend to dismiss catchers the way that people involved in fantasy football dismiss kickers. But to see a player outperform his positional peers to this degree demands notice.

Joe Mauer may be the most valuable player in baseball this year, and so it raises the forthcoming question—why wouldn’t you take this player entering his Age 27 season with one of the first few picks?

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In the final month, justifying a player's roster slot becomes more difficult. Even players who you may expect to perform better than what’s available on the waiver wire should be subject to close scrutiny. Is your team better off cutting a player for the opportunity to use that player’s roster spot for a stream of alternative available players with good daily matchups?

You might see Milton Bradley, for example, as offering better potential than anybody available on your waiver wire. But how much better will Bradley be than the pool of players who are not rostered in your league? If the answer is “just a little,” he probably deserves to be cut.

Here’s why.

Over the course of a season, under a large sample size of games, you can feel confident that a player projected above the masses will indeed perform up to those expectations. (It won’t always happen, but it will more times than not.) But with fewer games to play, the rule of small sample sizes dictates that practically anything can happen, and player performance will not always match skill level. Accordingly, one should be less confident that a projection will bear out.

That’s the first reason.

Of course, a smaller degree of confidence doesn’t mean no confidence. If you see Player X as being better than Waiver Wire Players A, B, and C, there remains a reasonable probability that Player X will outperform many of those available players. But you still may wish to cut him.

In many leagues, teams find themselves below the maximum games allowed per position or find they have a number of innings to yet pitch. A team holding a player who barely outperforms the waiver wire pool may wish to analyze whether it would get more production from players who contribute every day. After all, major league baseball clubs have off days and on those days, unless your league allows for a very deep bench of reserves, you’re probably sacrificing an opportunity to have a player with a good matchup in your active lineup to hold onto a player who isn’t playing.

This becomes especially true for pitchers as they only play once or twice per week. It sometimes helps to work backward.

For example, last week, the San Diego Padres announced they would be shutting down young phenom Mat Latos after just two more starts. Both of those starts are away from the pitching haven, Petco Park. Anybody who heard the announcement last Thursday might have asked: Is holding Latos for 10 days and two away starts worth more than opening his roster position for the best 10 spot starts in that intervening time?

A question like this can only be answered by looking at the standings and your league’s positional allowances. A team under their innings pace and with breathing room in ERA and WHIP might wish to take quantity over quality. The same is true on the batting end—a team that feels points stability in batting average might look to amass as many games as possible from batters, and thus, more runs, RBIs, steals and home runs.

This advice only applies to daily transactional roto leagues, of course. And we’re brought back to our argument on the confidence factor. With just a month left of baseball, it’s hard to say that a player with a certain skill set is going to have production that matches those skills. What we can say with more confidence is that more games typically means more production.

For a player only barely better than the rest, you may wish to part ways for the above reasons.

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Although it may seem early to begin contemplating next season when we have about six weeks left in the current one, many people who play fantasy baseball have already started to think about next year. In many keeper leagues, the trade deadline has just passed or will be coming soon, and many teams are trying to position themselves for success in 2010.

Sometimes, it's hard to sort through values when so many things can happen between now and next April, but I figured the best way to get started was to take the "wisdom of crowds" by recruiting a bunch of smart fantasy baseball enthusiasts and conducting a mock draft on my blog. To add to this crowd-sourcing project, I told all of the participants they would be competing for a prize. The masses—that means you—will be voting on the team that did the best job in drafting.

So what players' stock has risen this year? What players' stock has fallen? Where will breakouts like Mark Reynolds, Ben Zobrist, Aaron Hill, Justin Upton, Zach Greinke, Wandy Rodriguez and Ubaldo Jimenez be picked next season?

Our first mock draft of 2010 may hold some clues.

We conducted two rounds daily. Each day, I asked the participants to give me a list of the 20 best players remaining, sorted by draft priority. As a result, I was able to not only administer this draft, but also to get inside the participants' heads and measure variation in their valuations.

For example, on day one, all participants would have drafted Pujols, Hanley, Braun, and Utley in the first round. These guys are solid bets to be there next year. Will Mark Reynolds also be in the cream of the crop? Right now, it's too early to tell. A couple of drafters had him high. But many others didn't have him listed as a top 20 player.

From the looks of the draft and into the minds of the participants involved, players whose stock has risen for 2010 and who could escalate higher in the coming months include: Carl Crawford, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Joe Mauer, Ryan Zimmerman, Kendry Morales, Pablo Sandoval, Jayson Werth, Jon Lester, and Javier Vazquez.

In turn, here are some players on the wane whose stock could fall much further than what you see below: David Wright, Jose Reyes, Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, and Francisco Rodriguez.

It's also clear by this draft that second base is experiencing a bit of a renaissance. By round five of this draft, most of the teams had already lined up their second baseman. In contrast, talent at shortstop seems meager, especially with Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins falling to second/third round territory.

What are your thoughts? Who was over-drafted and who deserves the newfound respect? Also, please vote in the poll of who had the best draft. I've sorted the draft by rosters. Plus, a prize is on the line.

Round 1

1. The Sports Banter – Albert Pujols

2. Hamboners – Hanley Ramirez

3. The Devil Wears Prado – Ryan Braun

4. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Chase Utley

5. Evil Empire – Mark Reynolds

6. Unruhlies – Alex Rodriguez

7. .Beyond the Box Score – Tim Lincecum

8. He Thrills B. Mills – Carl Crawford

9. The Fat and the Furious – David Wright

10. The Juicy Danglers — Matt Holliday


Round 2

11. The Juicy Danglers — Justin Upton

12. The Fat and the Furious — Prince Fielder

13. He Thrills B. Mills — Miguel Cabrera

14. Beyond the Box Score —Matt Kemp

15. Unruhlies — Ian Kinsler

16. Evil Empire — Evan Longoria

17. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Mark Teixeira

18. The Devil Wears Prado — Jose Reyes

19. Hamboners — Grady Sizemore

20. The Sports Banter — Justin Morneau


Round 3

21. The Sports Banter – Ichiro Suzuki

22. Hamboners – Ryan Howard

23. The Devil Wears Prado – Joe Mauer

24. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Derek Jeter

25. Evil Empire – Brandon Phillips

26. Unruhlies – Johan Santana

27. Beyond the Box Score – Dan Haren

28. He Thrills B. Mills – Manny Ramirez

29. The Fat and the Furious – Brian Roberts

30. The Juicy Danglers — Jimmy Rollins


Round 4

31. The Juicy Danglers — Ryan Zimmerman

32. The Fat and the Furious — Jason Bay

33. He Thrills B. Mills — Carlos Beltran

34. Beyond the Box Score — Zach Greinke

35. Unruhlies — Roy Halladay

36. Evil Empire — Troy Tulowitzki

37. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Bobby Abreu

38. The Devil Wears Prado — Kevin Youkilis

39. Hamboners — Adrian Gonzalez

40. The Sports Banter — Dustin Pedroia


Round 5

41. The Sports Banter – Josh Hamilton

42. Hamboners – Javier Vazquez

43. The Devil Wears Prado – B.J. Upton

44. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – CC Sabathia

45. Evil Empire – Curtis Granderson

46. Unruhlies – Brian McCann

47. Beyond the Box Score – Ben Zobrist

48. He Thrills B. Mills – Aaron Hill

49. The Fat and the Furious – Lance Berkman

50. The Juicy Danglers — Robinson Cano


Round 6

51. The Juicy Danglers — Joey Votto

52. The Fat and the Furious — Felix Hernandez

53. He Thrills B. Mills — Carlos Lee

54. Beyond the Box Score — Jacoby Ellsbury

55. Unruhlies — Nick Markakis

56. Evil Empire — Victor Martinez

57. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Justin Verlander

58. The Devil Wears Prado — Aramis Ramirez

59. Hamboners — Adam Dunn

60. The Sports Banter — Alfonso Soriano


Round 7

61. The Sports Banter – Alexei Ramirez

62. Hamboners – Cliff Lee

63. The Devil Wears Prado – Josh Beckett

64. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Nelson Cruz

65. Evil Empire – Adam Jones

66. Unruhlies – Jonathan Papelbon

67. Beyond the Box Score – Nate McLouth

68. He Thrills B. Mills – Yovani Gallardo

69. The Fat and the Furious – Adam Lind

70. The Juicy Danglers — Jayson Werth


Round 8

71. The Juicy Danglers — Matt Cain

72. The Fat and the Furious — Raul Ibanez

73. He Thrills B. Mills — Michael Young

74. Beyond the Box Score — Andrew McCutchen

75. Unruhlies — Kendry Morales

76. Evil Empire — Hunter Pence

77. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Shane Victorino

78. The Devil Wears Prado — Josh Johnson

79. Hamboners — Andre Ethier

80. The Sports Banter — Jon Lester


Round 9

81. The Sports Banter – Adam Wainwright

82. Hamboners – Pablo Sandoval

83. The Devil Wears Prado – Torii Hunter

84. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Johnny Damon

85. Evil Empire – Mariano Rivera

86. Unruhlies – Alex Rios

87. Beyond the Box Score – Joe Nathan

88. He Thrills B. Mills – Jake Peavy

89. The Fat and the Furious – Chris Carpenter

90. The Juicy Danglers — Shin Soo Choo


Round 10

91. The Juicy Danglers — AJ Burnett

92. The Fat and the Furious — Clayton Kershaw

93. He Thrills B. Mills — Geovany Soto

94. Beyond the Box Score — Ryan Doumit

95. Unruhlies — Cole Hamels

96. Evil Empire — Derrek Lee

97. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Chad Billingsley

98. The Devil Wears Prado — Carlos Quentin

99. Hamboners — Howie Kendrick

100. The Sports Banter — Tommy Hanson


Round 11

101. The Sports Banter – Matt Wieters

102. Hamboners – Russell Martin

103. The Devil Wears Prado – Asdrubal Cabrera

104. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – James Shields

105. Evil Empire – Joba Chamberlain

106. Unruhlies – Vladimir Guerrero

107. Beyond the Box Score – Chipper Jones

108. He Thrills B. Mills – Gordon Beckham

109. The Fat and the Furious – Jason Bartlett

110. The Juicy Danglers — Jered Weaver


Round 12

111. The Juicy Danglers — Wandy Rodriguez

112. The Fat and the Furious — John Lackey

113. He Thrills B. Mills — Jonathan Broxton

114. Beyond the Box Score — Ricky Nolasco

115. Unruhlies — Stephen Drew

116. Evil Empire — Roy Oswalt

117. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Chone Figgins

118. The Devil Wears Prado — Max Scherzer

119. Hamboners — Jarrod Washburn

120. The Sports Banter — Matt Garza


Round 13

121. The Sports Banter – Mark DeRosa

122. Hamboners – Brandon Webb

123. The Devil Wears Prado – Ubaldo Jimenez

124. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Mike Napoli

125. Evil Empire – Rich Harden

126. Unruhlies – John Danks

127. Beyond the Box Score – Carlos Pena

128. He Thrills B. Mills – Scott Baker

129. The Fat and the Furious – Francisco Rodriguez

130. The Juicy Danglers — Miguel Montero


Round 14

131. The Juicy Danglers — Jose Valverde

132. The Fat and the Furious — Jorge Posada

133. He Thrills B. Mills — Jair Jurrjens

134. Beyond the Box Score — Jhonny Peralta

135. Unruhlies — Dexter Fowler

136. Evil Empire — David Price

137. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Heath Bell

138. The Devil Wears Prado — Joakim Soria

139. Hamboners — Andrew Bailey

140. The Sports Banter — Brian Fuentes


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Eriq Gardner 2009-08-18T06:38:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/what-kind-of-risk-taker-are-you/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/what-kind-of-risk-taker-are-you/#When:06:58:15
Lottery players have a very high probability of coming up short but typically don’t stake much investment in their gambles. Stock market players, on the other hand, are willing to put a lot more on the line with a smaller probability of coming up short.

Here’s an example.

I participate in a league where I’ve been bouncing between second and sixth place for the last few weeks. The most competitive categories are ERA and wins. Right now, my team leads most of my competitors in those two categories, but the margin is extremely small. Problem is, in order to catch up to the first place team in the league, I’d need to make a major move in steals, and now my team is being offered Carl Crawford and a good reliever for one of my team’s best pitchers, Adam Wainwright, and a player who was projected to have about three times as many steals as he currently does. Do I do the deal?

Regardless of the answer, my team would be making a risk. Accept the deal as any stock market player would and risk a ton of points in the pitching categories—My team might finish in first, but there's a small chance it could finish in sixth place.

Reject the deal as any lottery player would and gamble on some lower possibility for making up the points differential with the first place team—My team might still finish in first, but more probably second or third.

Behavioral economists have had fun through the years studying different choices on uncertain outcomes. Although this is a realm of study loosely tied into game theory, I’m unaware of any researcher who has taken time to analyze fantasy sports competitions. Instead, they’ve gravitated to games like poker and blackjack and even game shows like “Deal or No Deal.”

Most of the studies I’ve seen seem to indicate that the vast majority of people behave like lottery players when making risky decisions. They prefer wherever possible to avoid the possibility of big losses even if they forsake optimal odds. On the other hand, there’s something in economics that’s coincidentally called “prospect theory,” whereby people evaluate potential gains and losses depending on some psychological reference point. For example, two teams in two different leagues with the exact same trade offer on the table as the one described above might come to different outcomes based on one team having achieved early setbacks and late success versus the other team having achieved early success and recent setbacks.

I also think something like this is good to keep in mind when making an offer to another team. You may believe you are making one that serves the rational interests of your trading partner, but are you selling an equity to someone who prefers a lottery ticket? Are you marketing a low-probability chance to win millions to a team less fearful of losses? Understand someone’s tolerance for seeking or avoiding risk or aptitude for measuring gains and losses and you may begin to get a sense about how to trade with them.

And oh yeah … I took the deal.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Eriq Gardner 2009-08-11T06:58:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/designing-a-better-league/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/designing-a-better-league/#When:05:59:15
Can we blame them? By August, fantasy leagues are populated with team owners who have no hope of finishing first. Meanwhile, there’s more important things to attend to—like watching crazy YouTube videos or the start of the football season.

Unfortunately, orphaned fantasy teams create havoc. In Head-to-Head leagues, some teams may get into the playoffs and others may miss out on the basis of scheduling luck. In rotisserie leagues, a non-competitive team is liable to give away free points and influence the final standings.

The advent of keeper leagues was supposed to offer some salvation to the sin of negligence by promoting ongoing attention to one’s team. Sleep in September and potentially miss out on a call-up who might help a team rebound the following season. But most keeper leagues tend to exacerbate the problem with so-called “dump deals,” whereby out-of-competition teams trade their superstars for better keeper prospects. Once a team has forfeited their best players, they become even more unlikely to pay attention during the final weeks of the season.

Last week on THT Fantasy, Jonathan Halket covered the controversies surrounding dump trades, but for all the acrimony these trades inspire, I believe the larger issue was missed. Dealing with issues like fairness and free markets is all good and fine, but are we sure that fantasy baseball has set up the right kinds of incentives to drive market participants toward the finish line?

In the last couple of years, I’ve advocated change in the leagues in which I participate. My goal has been to minimize the controversies entailing the fairness of trades, to create a system that isn’t too rulebook onerous, and most importantly, to approach the problem as any good economist would—by focusing squarely on incentives.

Right now, in most leagues, there’s no incentive to compete for many teams. Right now, in many keeper leagues, there’s no incentive for those who find themselves out of competition to hold onto star athletes. That’s the target for improvement.

Here are examples of changes we’ve made in my leagues.

I participate in a 20-team H2H keeper league. Each team has a 30-man roster and an additional reserve list of minor league players. With approximately 760 players on rosters, you wouldn’t expect to find any singular team in this league fielding All-Stars at every position, but thanks to the emergence of “dump deals,” that’s exactly what’s happened in past years.

So we decided to change things this past offseason by instituting a new incentive system. Every team that misses out on the playoffs competes in a consolation tournament. The winner of this tournament gets an extra keeper. In addition, similar to real-life Major League Baseball’s Elias Rankings on free agents, teams in my fantasy league are allowed to cash in superstars at the end of the season for picks in the league’s minor league draft. Of course, in order to have a good shot in the consolation tournament and in order to take advantage of consolation draft picks, teams need to hold onto superstars—not dump them in any trade.

I also participate in a 16-team roto keeper auction league. Similarly, dump deals used to bedevil this league and many teams lost interest.

So we decided to offer any “out of money” team that improves its standing after the All-Star break a discount on a player’s keeper price. For example, Team X buys Albert Pujols for $33. Team X is in last place at the All-Star break. Instead of trading Pujols for Jason Heyward, Team X keeps Pujols and has better luck in the second half, improving his points total by 33 percent. As a result, Team X gets to take 33 percent off the price of any of his keepers. So if Team X wants to keep Pujols, the salary is only $22, making the Cardinals All-Star a phenomenally attractive keeper. This also mirrors real-life baseball, as many free agents become more likely to sign contracts with teams showing competitive fight.

So far, the discount keeper rule has been a wild success. The consolation tournament and draft pick exchange rules have only had moderate impact. We’re still tinkering around the edges to get things right.

If there’s a takeaway here, it’s this: If a dispute comes up in your league, make sure you examine the root causes of the dispute. There are too many legislators and lawyers in leagues, but not enough economists. Considering fantasy baseball is a stats-obsessed endeavor, that’s ironic.

***

On another note, I’m holding the first mock draft of the 2010 season. I’m doing this in order to help teams sort through prospective values as they look to trade this year with next year in mind. I’m even giving away a prize. If you are interested in participating, find details on my Website.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Eriq Gardner 2009-08-04T05:59:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/trade-deadline-a-few-bullpen-situations-to-watch/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/trade-deadline-a-few-bullpen-situations-to-watch/#When:05:03:15
Some leagues may be won and lost this week on the basis of the quickest waiver wire trigger finger. Will there be any major sources of saves to come into fantasy leagues over the next few days? Time to review some bullpen situations just in case…

Arizona: Chad Qualls has the job at the moment and he’s been absolutely solid. Unfortunately, the team is nearly out of contention, and reportedly at least a dozen teams have inquired about the Diamondbacks’ ace reliever. Earlier in the month, the team traded reliever Tony Pena to the White Sox. Pena probably figured to be Qualls’ replacement, but now that he’s gone, where would the team turn? The most logical candidate is Jon Rauch, who has closer experience and currently serves as the team’s eighth inning setup guy. However, Rauch has been positively dreadful this year with a slipping K/9 rate and borderline command. He’s been much more lucky of late than good, and it’s hard to figure he’d keep the job very long—if he gets it at all. Instead, deeper leagues may wish to roster Juan Guttierez (more impressive than his stats show) or Clay Zavada.

San Diego: The Padres have told teams they are open to hearing offers on Heath Bell, although supposedly, they have also told teams the price will be high to attain Bell. Many people have speculated that Edward Mujica would be Bell’s replacement, but Mujica has been inconsistent this year. A few too many fly balls and walks limits his ability to lock down the closer role. Meanwhile, the Padres bullpen is stuffed with more candidates, including Luke Gregerson (50 strikeouts in under 44 innings), Mike Adams (a 1.06 ERA and 0.76 WHIP since returning from DL), and Greg Burke (one of those closer-of-the-future guys). This has all the earmarks of a closer-by-committee.

Cincinnati: There have been mixed reports about whether the Reds are buyers or sellers at the deadline. If the team decided to sell its closer, Francisco Cordero, a number of teams would be interested. The team doesn’t have a clear-cut heir apparent. David Weathers is pitching eighth innings at the moment and has been very solid this season. However, Weathers will be 40 years old in September, and if the team wishes to think about next season and give a kid a shot, they could turn to Nick Masset, sporting an impressive 2.55 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.

Pittsburgh: The trade-aggressive Pirates seem inclined to trade Matt Capps. The closer has been terrible this year, so maybe the question should be why anybody would want him. Regardless, if Capps goes, the team would need to find a replacement. The most logical candidate is current setup guy John Grabow, but his 25 walks in 44 innings is hardly impressive. Our bet is that Joel Hanrahan might eventually end the season as he started the season—a closer. Hanrahan has good stuff but had underperformed his peripherals in Washington. As a Pirate, though, he’s got a 3.38 ERA. So far, so good.

Toronto: Last week, Scott Downs let up five earned runs in three innings, perhaps tamping down trade interest from other teams. However, he’s been solid most of the year and if the price is right, Toronto might very well dish him for a prospect. Jason Frasor would presumably pick up the job again, although he was shaky in the role when given the opportunity to fill in for an injured Downs earlier this season. Keep an eye on Brandon League, who has combined impressive strikeout ability with a great groundball rate. The team could always pick up a reliever in trade too, especially if Downs is part of a Roy Halladay deal.

Who else might go? Will there be deals that nobody anticipates?

I'll be posting fantasy analysis on breaking trades this week on Twitter @fantasyfix

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Eriq Gardner 2009-07-28T05:03:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/dont-give-up-on-batting-average-just-yet/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/dont-give-up-on-batting-average-just-yet/#When:07:25:15
The premise behind such logic is typically based on the notion that average is a rate stat, and with a few thousand at-bats already accumulated, the opportunity to move AVG significantly becomes tougher as the season progresses. For example, a team that maintains a batting average of .272 at the half-way point and wants to get it up to .282, will need to accomplish a .292 average for the rest of the season.

That might seem daunting and we’re guessing that a lot of fantasy teams simply give up on chasing average thanks to the army of pundits who declare moving average upwards at this point of the season to be a Sisyphean task.

I have doubts about this logic. I think it’s quite foolish to assume that catching up in average is any bit more tough than making up ground in any other category. In some regards, I believe there's benefit to chasing a high average despite what conventional wisdom might say.

The first problem with typical analysis on batting average is one of perception.

Making a .292 average the rest of the year might seem intimidating. But what if I told you that you only needed to get 30 more hits than your competitors? Would that change your mind?

After all, average is merely hits divided by at-bats. If we normalize the denominator by assuming that teams in a given league will achieve roughly the same amount of at-bats, all that’s left is hits. (There are some factors why teams won’t get the same number of at-bats, but the spread in a typical league isn’t that large.) If teams in your league each accomplish roughly 3000 at-bats from here until the end of the season, the difference between your competitors’ assumed .282 average and your desired .292 average over those remaining at-bats translates to 30 hits.

Is 30 hits more daunting than, say, a gap of 10 steals? I’ll leave that up to you do decide.

“But wait,” you say. “Doesn’t the fact that I’m stuck with a .272 average at this moment indicate that I don’t have the players to achieve a .292 average the rest of the way?”

Answer: It depends.

The second problem with conventional wisdom that states that moving AVG up at this point of year is a fool’s errand is that it ignores economics—specifically supply-and-demand curves concerning available player talent. Sure, moving your average up with your current roster might be tough, but how about all those players who might potentially help you in the free agent pool?

People who play fantasy baseball love batters who hit home runs and steal bases. Typically, they give less respect to high-average players who don’t contribute in the power and speed categories.

Look at every hitter in baseball this year with at least 15 HR so far. How many of them are owned in your league? All of them?

Look at every hitter in baseball this year with at least 15 SB so far. How many of them are owned in your league? All but one or two?

Now look at every hitter in baseball this year with at least a .300 BA in at least 200 plate appearances. Are players like Martin Prado, Nick Johnson, Skip Schumacher, Maicer Izturis, Cristian Guzman, Scott Podsednik, Alberto Callaspo owned in your league? Would they be that hard to attain in trade? Unless you play in a very deep league with a shallow player pool, I’m guessing there’s good supply and mediocre demand on a batter who makes good contact with the ball and can be expected to put up a high average.

(Bonus note: Alberto Callaspo has 31 more hits than Jay “Batting Average Killer” Bruce to date. Did someone say 30?)

Often in fantasy leagues, we’re forced to make choices at this point of the season. Our teams might not be in position to dominate every category and finding a few extra points may be the difference between winning and coming in second place. We may choose to attack a certain category and give up on another category because that’s where we see the best opportunity for standings gain.

But be careful how decisions on punting one category can influence your team’s standing in the other categories.

The third and last problem with advice that tells teams that chasing AVG is a foolish endeavor at this point of the season is that it ignores the full ramifications and trade-offs of a team that elects to punt the category.

To drive this point home, I took the top 150 batters in the 2008 season. I wanted to determine the correlation between a batter’s success in an individual category and that batter’s overall value. The table below measures the degree of correlation on a scale of -1 to 1. The higher the number, the stronger relationship between a batter’s single category success and overall category success.

Category: Correlation with Overall Value
Runs: 0.79
RBIs: 0.66
Average: 0.54
Home Runs: 0.54
Steals: 0.26

As you see, average is roughly as important to a batter’s overall success as home runs, and certainly more important than stolen bases. Another way to look at this is to say that a fantasy team stands a better chance of giving up on steals without damaging their position in the other categories than to give up on average without hurting their team in categories such as runs and RBIs.

Ask most analysts to identify the statistical category that fantasy teams will find it easiest to make up ground in roto leagues, and many may answer, “steals,” because it’s a counting category that’s relatively scarce and having one good speed threat can make quite a difference. However, this advice ignores the fact that most batters who steal a lot of bases do little much else to help out.

The same can't be said about average. A batter doing well in average has a better shot at doing well in other categories. This could be reason alone not to give up on the category.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Eriq Gardner 2009-07-21T07:25:15+00:00