The Hardball Times -- Greg Simons

Is 5/125 the new 5/55?

Greg Simons — 2013-05-21T07:05:15+00:00

Once upon a time, eight-figure annual salaries in baseball were a big deal. Dropping $10 million or more on a player garnered a team plenty of attention—and often just as much criticism. Of course, it still does today, but there are scores of players making that much or more, so it's less of a concern now.

One thing that always has held true is that paying too much for mediocre or worse performance is undesirable, and paying a fortune for a replacement-level player is an atrocious way for a team to spend its money. Occasionally, a contract length and dollar value will crop up repeatedly in conjunction with under-performing players, serving as a cautionary tale of agreed-upon terms that result in less-than-expected results. It's happened before, it's happening now, and it will happen again.

The table setter

In the lates 1990s, the Dodgers had a talented but enigmatic pitcher named Darren Dreifort. After a 1994 bullpen cup of coffee in which he recorded six saves, Dreifort required Tommy John surgery and missed all of the '95 season. He returned to the bigs in 1996 for another brief run, and in '97 threw 63 innings of relief, saved four games and posted a nice 136 ERA+.

With Tommy John surgery in the ever-distant past, Los Angeles inserted Dreifort into the 1998 rotation, where he posted an even 4.00 ERA (101 ERA+) and continued to strike out nearly a batter per inning. Mediocre 1999 and 2000 seasons saw him win a total of 25 games with ERA+ numbers 10 percent worse and four percent better than average, respectively.

At this point, free agency loomed. Having invested years in Dreifort's development, the Dodgers figured he was worth keeping around, so they inked him to a five-year, $55 million contract. Soon afterward, Dreifort imploded.

His 2001 campaign saw Dreifort garner four victories while posting a 5.13 ERA and 78 ERA+ over 94.2 frames before a second Tommy John procedure and flexor tendon repair were necessary. His '02 season was highlighted solely by right knee surgery to repair loose cartilage. Pitching infrequently when he wasn't in the shop for MCL, labrum, ACL and meniscus repairs, Dreifort was mediocre over 121 innings in 2003 and '04. Shoulder surgery in early '05 wiped out that season and ended his career.

Totaling up his meager contributions from 2001 to 2005, Dreifort went 9-15 with a 4.64 ERA over 205.2 innings of work. He provided something on the order of 0.2 (Baseball-Reference) to 2.3 (FanGraphs) WAR. Being generous and giving him the higher number, that's $23.9 million per win, several times the typical going rate those days.

You could call Dreifort a bust—and you'd be correct—but he had a worthy successor.

Round two

To be fair, the equivalent five-year, $55 million pact Gil Meche signed with the Kansas City Royals wasn't nearly as atrocious as Dreifort's deal. Still, there are enough parallels that the two deals are worth comparing.

Meche made 15 starts for Seattle in both 1999 and 2000, throwing exactly 85.2 innings each year, though he improved his numbers across the board in his second campaign.

IP    ERA   ERA+  HR   BB   K   K/BB
85.2  4.73  105    9   57  47   0.82
85.2  3.78  121    7   40  60   1.50

Meche missed all of 2001 following surgery for a frayed labrum—rarely a good omen—though he came back to have four solid, if not particularly notable, campaigns for the Mariners, with ERA+ values ranging from 83 to 99. He never threw more than 186.2 innings in any of those years, though he went on the DL only once.

Meche was a free agent following the 2006 season, and he found a home in KC with the aforementioned contract, and his first two seasons were more than worth the $11 million average per annum he was receiving. He threw more than 210 frames in both years with 125 and 109 ERA+ marks, respectively, and he earned an All-Star nod in 2007.

Lower back, arm and shoulder woes plagued Meche throughout 2009, limiting him to 23 starts, 129 innings and an ERA over 5.00 (ERA + of 87). The 2010 season was even worse; he was able to throw only 61.2 frames with a 5.69 ERA (74 ERA+) and an astronomical walk rate (5.5 per nine) nearly as high as Meche's strikeout rate (6.0 K/9).

His long-term shoulder problems having taken their toll, Meche decided enough was enough and retired rather than take KC's $12.4 million salary obligation for the 2011 campaign. It was a surprisingly selfless decision that few other players have made.

FanGraphs (10.1) and B-Ref (10.2) agree quite closely on Meche's WAR value over the length of his contract. Considering his terrific first two seasons with the Royals, and that he was paid only $42.6 million over his four years with KC, his $4.2 million per WAR was a reasonable price.

Still, the team paid $18.8 million for Meche's first 9.2 WAR and $23.8 for the remaining 1.0. Kansas City may not have gotten him had it offered a two-year deal, but that's obviously where the value lay. Meche's collapse on the back end of his deal is a glaring warning for franchises investing long-term in pitchers.

However, it's not just moundsmen who can prove to be more costly that they're worth.

Merely a platoon player?

As we jump forward a few seasons and way up in dollars, we come to Ryan Howard and the five-year, $125 million extension he signed with Philadelphia early in the 2010 campaign. The deal kicked in last year, paying him "only" $20 million that season and this current one before rising to $25 million in '14-'16 with a $23 million option for 2017 or a $10 million buyout. So the total years and value could be greater than they currently stand, but we'll consider only the guaranteed portion of the pact.

Timing is everything, and timing of the Phillies' huge investment hardly could have been worse. Howard's 2011 season ended with his making the final out of the NLDS against St. Louis, and in the process rupturing his Achilles' tendon. The lengthy recovery—made even longer by a related infection—cost him about half the 2012 campaign. And when he returned to the field, Howard wasn't the same player he was before.

Though he exhibited good pop with 14 homers in his half season last year, Howard produced only a .219/.295/.423 triple-slash line, good for a 89 OPS+. He struck out nearly four times as often has he walked (99:25 K:BB ratio), and his already limited defensive ability was further reduced. Both FanGraphs and B-Ref "credit" Howard with -1.1 WAR for his overall contributions.

Thus far, this season has gone just about the same as last year. Howard was batting .245/.282/.430 through Sunday, with six long balls and a 90 OPS+. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has further diminished to 46:9. While showing a slightly lesser propensity to whiff in this strikeout-heavy era, Howard is either less feared or less patient, as his current walk pace would put his season total only slightly more than half as high as his next-lowest mark.

Howard is 33—an old and injured 33—and he's unlikely to recover his previous form. And even that form wasn't as spectacular as his massive power skills led many to believe. Despite consecutive seasons of 58, 47, 48, and 45 home runs in 2006-09, he topped 5.0 WAR only during that 58-homer '06 campaign.

That's just how awful Howard has become at all the other aspects of the game of baseball. He's slow, he's a poor defender at the easiest defensive position, he's seen his walk (and on-base percentage) numbers slide, and he's never been good against lefty pitchers. There certainly are reasonable questions about WAR's ability to measure defense accurately, but when a slugger loses a good portion of his ability to slug, he's not worth much.

And that's the problem facing the Phillies. They'll be paying Howard to be a top-notch hitter for a five-year stretch, and so far he's been a below average producer at the plate. It's impossible to compute the cost per WAR of his contract because he hasn't accumulated any.

Howard's situation is a great example of buyer beware, but if it's still not enough, read on.

A very special case

When the No. 1 pick in the draft works his way to the majors and eventually wins an MVP award, it's typically an excellent example of great talent on the part of the player, scouting by those who have watched the game for decades and player development by the organization that chose the superstar. With Josh Hamilton, the story isn't nearly so straightforward.

After he was drafted by Tampa Bay in 1999, drug addiction and myriad other problems derailed his career for an extended period. Hamilton didn't play baseball at any professional level in 2003-05. However, he made up for lost time by bursting onto the scene with Cincinnati in 2007 after being taken in the Rule 5 draft by the Cubs and being dealt to the Reds.

Hamilton ripped 19 long balls in only 337 at-bats and posted a 131 OPS+. Needing pitching and fearing he might be a flash in the pan or fall back off the wagon, Cincinnati dealt Hamilton to Texas that winter for Edinson Volquez and Danny Herrera. Needless to say, the Reds were wrong.

Hamilton reached 30 home runs and 100 RBIs three times in five years with Texas, captured a batting title, and was a five-time All-Star, three-time Silver Slugger recipient and the 2010 AL MVP. During that stretch, his total base salary was just shy of $23.8 million. Regardless of your preferred WAR flavor (22.2 rWAR, 21.6 fWAR), Hamilton earned a mere $1.1 million per WAR, a tremendous bargain for the Rangers.

Despite his excellent past performance, Texas was another team wary of investing too much much or time into Hamilton's next deal, so he took his talents to Hollywood, or somewhere in that general vicinity, earning a deal identical to Howard's in terms of years and dollars.

And now we may be getting an idea of why so many previous organizations were concerned about the long-term health of Josh Hamilton. Small sample size and all that, but there were signs last year that Hamilton was slipping. He's never been one to take many walks, although last year he had his second-highest total ever, but the 162 whiffs Hamilton recorded in 2012 were 28 percent above his next-highest total and the first time he topped 100 since 2008. Again, in his favor, he did post his highest games-played total since that year.

This season has been about as bad as anyone could have envisioned for Hamilton. He's batting .216/.271/.351 through Sunday, with five homers and 12 RBI&mash;a year after reaching 43 and 128, respectively. His 2010 slugging percentage of .633 is higher than this year's OPS of .622, which yields a 74 OPS+, and he has a WAR value of -0.2 (fWAR) to -0.7 (rWAR).

Similar to Albert Pujols a year ago, the Angels have to be hoping their extravagant long-term investment is merely off to a rough start and will break out any day now. At a year younger and only $1 million more in annual salary over half the duration of his deal, Los Angeles isn't on the hook for nearly as much overall money as with Pujols, but the team can't be happy about the prospect of spending roughly $50 million a year for what is currently replacement-level performance.

Who's next?

Teams have to pay a premium for premium talent, in terms of both dollars and years. It's just the way negotiations go these days. The dollars are huge, but players in their early 30s should be somewhere near their peak. It's those pesky late-30s/early-40s seasons that really foul things up.

There are numerous stories of players—Alex Rodriguez, Todd Helton, Carlos Lee, Mike Hampton and Jeff Bagwell come quickly to mind—whose last season or two (or more) of a long-term deal were drags on a team's payroll and performance. One thing we can be sure of is that these types of deals will continue, as free agents typically have multiple suitors for their multitude of talents.

There have been several long-term extensions signed by players, especially pitchers, in the last season or two. It will be very interesting to see how they work out as we approach the end of this decade. If history is any lesson, my advice is to enjoy the present, because the future could be quite painful—and expensive.

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How much do hot/cold starts matter?

Greg Simons — 2013-05-14T07:12:15+00:00

Recently, Baseball Prospectus reprinted an article by Rany Jazayerli that estimated how teams would perform based on: 1) the previous three years' results, and 2) their current-year record. His goal was to evaluate whether teams that came out of the gate much better or worse than they had performed in the recent past indicate a new performance level or merely upcoming regression.

My goal is to use Jazayerli's formula to look at: 1) how teams were expected to do this year based on past results, and 2) how this season's early returns have impacted teams' anticipated fortunes. His formula weighs the previous three year's records (plus a regression-to-.500 factor) as approximately:

0.45*Year N-1  +  0.30*.500  +  0.15*Year N-2  +  0.10*Year N-3

Given these variables, here were the projected 2013 standings before play began.

AL East      W   L
Yankees      91  71
Rays         88  74
Orioles      83  79
Blue Jays    78  84
Red Sox      78  84

AL Central   W   L
Tigers       86  76
White Sox    83  79
Royals       74  88
Indians      74  88
Twins        73  89

AL West      W   L
Rangers      89  73
Athletics    86  76
Angels       85  77
Mariners     74  88
Astros       65  97


NL East      W   L
Braves       89  73
Nationals    87  75
Phillies     85  77
Mets         77  85
Marlins      74  88

NL Central   W   L
Reds         89  73
Cardinals    86  76
Brewers      83  79
Pirates      77  85
Cubs         70  92

NL West      W   L
Giants       89  73
Dodgers      83  79
D'backs      81  81
Padres       78  84
Rockies      72  90

There aren't too many big surprises in those numbers, though a few things jump out when compared to THT's preseason predictions.

From a big-picture perspective, it's odd to see four of the six projected division winners with exactly 89 victories, only one team forecast to win more than 90 games, and a single franchise pegged for a sub-70 victory total. Such is regression to the mean.

In the AL East, we thought Toronto's influx of talent from Miami—something the formula would know nothing about—would launch the Blue Jays to a division title, while Rany's rules would leave them in a battle for the cellar. (We'll talk about the "wisdom" of our prediction a little later.) We also thought Baltimore would flop back to the cellar, while Jazayerli's formula keeps the Orioles above .500.

In the AL Central, THTers flip-flopped Cleveland and Chicago, but that's not too much a deviation from history's forecast.

Both systems projected a three-way battle for the AL West title.

Aside from switching the top two teams in the tight race for the NL East championship, we matched up well.

Similar to it's AL counterpart, the NL Central had one mid-pack flip-flop vs. Rany's predictions.

We had the free-spending Los Angeles Dodgers emerging as NL West champs ahead of Jazayerli's Giants, with the rest of the division the same.

Of course, that's how we and Rany's system expected the end-of-season standings to look. What happens between Game 1 and Game 162—the shape of the season on a day-to-day basis—is anybody's guess. We won't know how the two predictions methods compare until October, so that's something worth revisiting at the appropriate time.

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For now, we have the opportunity to apply the second part of the Jazayerli methodology to see how teams' early-season results have impacted their expected overall season records. As we approach the quarter pole, some teams are spot on with where they were expected to be, while others have seen big deviations. Below are the updated projections, division by division, which we'll follow with a look at some of the more interesting cases.

Standings through May 12. Rounding caused some Change values not to match the cited win/loss adjustments.

AL East      W   L   Change
Yankees      96  66  +5
Orioles      89  73  +6
Rays         86  76  -2
Red Sox      84  78  +7
Blue Jays    71  91  -6

Is there no stopping the Yankees juggernaut? Even with nearly $100 million—about four full Astros rosters—of player salaries on the disabled list, New York is tied for baseball's best record. This hot start has boosted the Yankees' major league-leading projection of 91 victories up to a stellar 96. It seems that rumors of the Yankees' demise have been greatly exaggerated.

The O's are showing that last season's awesome record in one-run and extra-inning games may have been prescient in general if not in the same specific manner.

The Rays? Yawn.

Boston is bouncing back well from last year's cellar-dwelling debacle, though the Red Sox's red-hot first month has become more of a soft orange glow.

And then we get to Toronto. Rany's formula didn't expect great things, but the Blue Jays' deals with the Marlins and Mets—in which they acquired Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, R.A. Dickey and others—led many, including us, to forecast a strong season up north. However, it seems the only thing Toronto acquired was expensive misery, as thus far the Jays have underperformed even their modest 78-win prediction by several games.

AL Central   W   L   Change
Tigers       89  73  +2
Indians      81  81  +7
Royals       78  84  +4
White Sox    78  84  -6
Twins        76  86  +3

Detroit continues to be the class of the division, ticking its numbers up slightly with a solid start to the season.

Selfishly, the best thing about Cleveland's nice beginning to the campaign is that the Indians now are projected to finish in second place, where the plurality of THT voters placed them. A .500 record is not what the Tribe is after, so they need to keep their improvements intact to maintain their early-season gains.

Ah, the Royals, steadily drifting along aimlessly, though at least these days they're mediocre instead of awful.

And the next-best thing about the early-season results is Chicago dropping to a projected fourth-place finish (percentage points behind KC), where we put the Sox before the season began. The Pale Hose need to right the ship or their season will be Dunn in.

Minnesota is moderately relevant at the moment, but that's unlikely to last.

AL West      W   L   Change
Rangers      96  66  +6
Athletics    83  79  -3
Angels       77  85  -9
Mariners     75  87  +1
Astros       56  106 -9

Texas is acting as if losing Josh Hamilton was no big deal, though it's the pitching that's leading the way. Despite playing in one of the game's better hitters' parks, the Rangers have allowed the fewest runs in the American League, second in all of baseball.

Oakland will need another late-season charge, something the A's have excelled at in the last decade, if they're going to chase down Texas again. Don't count on it, but don't be surprised by it, either.

Los Angeles is acting as if signing Josh Hamilton was no big deal. His .203/.253/.331 triple-slash line sure hasn't helped the Angels' cause, and neither has Albert Pujols' .234/.317/.390 line. Those are mighty sad returns on $50 million-a-year investments. Maybe they should just go out and get more Mike Trouts.

Seattle has Felix Hernandez and ... well, that's about it.

Ugh! Houston was expected to be awful, forecast to lose 97 games. Reality is so much worse. At least they finally reached double-digit wins. However, at their current pace, the '62 Mets are in their sights.

NL East      W   L   Change
Braves       90  72  +1
Nationals    87  75  +0
Phillies     81  81  -4
Mets         73  89  -4
Marlins      63  99  -11

Atlanta and Washington are right where everyone expected them to be, battling atop the division and ahead of the rest of the pack.

The Phillies are a bit worse than history suggested they would be, but age and injuries are taking their toll rapidly. Unlike the Yankees, the Phillies haven't been able to take other teams' offcasts and turn them into stars. Put another way, Delmon Young is no Vernon Wells.

No one expected the NL New York team to do much, and, well, it hasn't. Maybe the Mets need to find an Iron Man and Thor, and bring back Hulk to go with their Captain America.

Everyone knew Miami was going to stink, but the Marlins' current 115-loss pace is even more odious than expected. While they've already dropped 11 games off their preseason pace, the miniscule bit of good news is that the Marlins currently are projected to lose "only" 99 games. Something tells me that number will hit triple digits by the All-Star break.

NL Central   W   L   Change
Cardinals    93  69  +7
Reds         91  71  +2
Pirates      83  79  +6
Brewers      78  84  -5
Cubs         68  94  -2

St. Louis has gone from being a team expected to battle for a Wild Card to tied for baseball's best record. The Cardinals may end up duking it out for a playoff spot by the time their year is done, but the seven-game bump they've enjoyed since the campaign began certainly positions them much better in their quest for a spot in October.

Cincinnati has edged its projected record up a bit, and the Reds have some key players coming back from injury. They'll be in the hunt all year long, just as everyone anticipated.

Pittsburgh is going to have a winning record! Book it. It's done. What's that? The Pirates have done this before the last couple of years? Oh, yeah. Well, this time it's for real. Maybe. Maybe ... ???

A recent 1-9 stretch has turned things sour for Milwaukee after an earlier nine-game winning streak. The Brew Crew's yo-yo season could bring them back up into contention again, but the recent news that Corey Hart could be out longer than expected won't help their cause.

Chicago is about as bad as expected, but at least the Cubs are locking up their young stars for the time when they once again will be relevant.

NL West      W   L   Change
Giants       92  70  +4
D-backs      85  77  +3
Rockies      78  84  +6
Dodgers      77  85  -6
Padres       75  87  -3

Matt Cain has stunk, and Ryan Vogelsong has been much worse than that, yet San Francisco is playing very well. How are the Giants doing it? Madison Bumgarner has been fantastic, Barry Zito is shocking the world with a terrific year, Tim Lincecum has been solid, and the hitters are spreading the wealth. The starting pitchers may shuffle their roles as the year goes on, but this is a pretty good formula for success.

The Diamondbacks were seen as a possible sleeper team, which means some people overestimated them and others underestimated them. They been slightly better than expected, so I guess they fit the mold so far.

Colorado's hot start has upped its expected record by a half-dozen games, but the Rockies still are forecast to have a losing record. They'd probably be happy just to avoid the cellar.

Especially if it came at the expense of Los Angeles. And speaking of expense, LA's boosting of its payroll well north of the $200 million mark was supposed to be evidence that the Dodgers were going to be serious contenders this season and a team that makes runs deep into October year after year. Yeah, and they were supposed to have eight starting pitchers, too. It's funny how these things work out.

San Diego ... What is there to say? The Padres were supposed to be bad, and they are. The Padres' minor league system has lots of depth, but until it starts spitting out some more good players, many fans will be more tempted by the beach than by the local nine.

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We'll come back later in the year to check again on which teams are holding their own compared to their preseason forecasts, which ones are ahead of the curve, and which are lagging behind their expected pace.

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What nobody is talking about

Greg Simons — 2013-05-08T07:13:15+00:00

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Baseball’s most boring player

Greg Simons — 2013-04-30T07:13:15+00:00

Perhaps his mother would prefer that he be called nondescript, and maybe that would be more kind, but I believe I've identified the least exciting player in the game today. But before we reveal the identity of said player, let's investigate exactly how he earned this dubious distinction. How does one become the most boring player in baseball?

It's a fairly lengthy path, an honor earned by flying under the radar for several seasons while doing very little to draw attention to oneself. It's not a heavy burden, so there's not really much effort required. Actually the less effort, perhaps the better, because if you try not to be noticed, oftentimes that's exactly when you do something to get noticed.

Teams

The first step in being a boring ballplayer is to play for teams that aren't flashy. You can't be inconspicuous if you're a New York Yankee, a member of the Boston Red Sox, or part of the new-money Dodgers. Even if you're the 25th man on the roster, reporters will say and write things about you because of the constant media scrutiny those teams receive. Find a small market and enjoy the anonymity.

Actually, the player I'm talking about has managed to find himself in a large media market, but he found a way around this problem: He plays for a bad team.

Bad teams don't get nearly as much attention as good teams, and rightfully so. Sure, in the spring every team has some degree of optimism, a rosy outlook on the future required to get fans excited and to sell tickets, but some squads come into the year destined for the golf course instead of the diamond in October. If you play for one of these franchises, discretion is more likely.

One thing to be wary of is if your team starts to improve too much. If this happens, and you're fighting for a playoff spot—or, heaven forbid, your team makes the postseason—forget it. ESPN, Fox Sports, TBS and countless others will be milling around your clubhouse, asking questions and comparing your team to its opponent. It's just a matter of time before they focus their lenses and microphones on you.

If something like this situation appears on the horizon, jump ship. Maybe you get traded, perhaps you're a free agent with plenty of low-key options. Talk to your agent and get out of the spotlight, pronto!

Performance

This is an area over which a player has some control. Sure, your opponents will do everything they can to get you out, but if you're in the majors, you're obviously a talented ballplayer. The trick is not to seem too talented. What you're looking for is a mediocre level of skill across a broad range of categories. Don't specialize in anything—power, speed, batting average, striking out or walking—or someone will bring it up.

The best bet is a broad base of skills. This type of player does poorly in Hall of Fame voting, and they certainly don't get much press in the day-to-day coverage of baseball. The flip side is, you have to do well enough to keep a job. If you just plain stink, talking heads will be calling for you to be traded, cut, sent to the minors or even drawn and quartered. Do well enough to keep a job, just not too well. The player I'm talking about has averaged roughly 2.4 WAR per season. Perfect.

When it comes to power, well, everyone still digs the long ball. Home runs are popular. Don't hit many of them. Baseball's current leading non-leading man never has hit more than a baker's dozen homers, nor has he poked fewer than five in a season, and who talks about a guy who only sometimes reaches double digits in long balls? Nobody.

The same rule applies on the basepaths. Sure, if you lack power, you'll need to swipe some bags to keep your team happy, but don't overdo it. Run once in a while to show some effort, but try to keep your annual total under 10. My guy snagged 11 bases one season, but he's been good for only about seven a year, on average.

Try to keep the triple-slash line blasé, too. A decent batting average, acceptable on-base percentage and a dollop of slugginess should do the trick. Mr. Boring is roughly .280 hitter. While his OBP is over .350, which makes some number crunchers and front-office types take notice, most fans won't be impressed. And a slugging percentage around .420 won't get anyone's blood flowing. The total package yields an OPS+ just a few points over 100. Excellent.

Defensively, don't be too flashy. A Web Gem holds the risk of lingering if it's a really good one, putting your mug on the tube night after night until someone tops you. Even better, if you can perform so non-spectacularly that your team shifts you around at times to accommodate other players, people are less likely to associate you with one defensive spot.

Naturally, winning awards—or even receiving votes—is frowned upon. Ditto in regards to leading the league in any category. Our non-hero did show up on a small number of Rookie of the Year ballots his first year, but that's it. He's never received an All-Star nod, a Gold Glove or a Silver Slugger award. He led the league in getting hit by pitches one season but has no other blank ink on his ledger.

All of this mediocrity helps with another item: salary. If you make a bunch of money or sign a long-term deal, people will talk. Sure, your family would be thrilled if you hauled in hundreds of millions of dollars, but the paparazzi will be kept at bay if you ink solid short-term deals.

Personal life

Speaking of paparazzi, this should go without saying, but don't do anything that gets TMZ on your case. This means no mentions in PED investigations, no commissioning paintings of yourself as a centaur, and no sending ladies home with a gift basket after a night on the town.

Actually, when it comes to personal relations, being married is best, because stability is anything but newsworthy. Kids are good, but have them in the offseason so you don't have to miss any games and have the birth publicized. And if you do have kids, have them one at a time. A Minnesota player's wife having twins is too cutesy for the media to resist.

The reveal

So, who is the guy I'm anointing the most boring player in the game? It's David DeJesus. Go ahead, click on his name, check out his stats, and try to stay awake while doing so—I'll wait.

Pretty darn boring, isn't he? What does he do that's flashy? Nothing.

You might ask how I even identified him, what got my attention about DeJesus. Well, he's on my fantasy team for the second straight year, taken in the reserve rounds as "just a guy," someone to fill in when a regular outfielder hits the disabled list.

Do you agree? Is DeJesus the most anonymous player in the game? If not, who's your nominee? Let us all know in the comments below.

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Previously on a Hall of Fame path

Greg Simons — 2013-04-23T07:22:15+00:00

"If he keeps it up, he's a lock for the Hall of Fame." "At this rate, he'll be in Cooperstown five years after he retires." "The ways he's going, this guy is a sure-fire Hall of Famer."

You've doubtlessly read variations on that theme countless time about numerous players. A guy gets off to a terrific start to his career, he gives no indication of slowing down, and his future looks clear. Induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame appears to be no more than a formality.

But then something happens. Injuries, drug problems, or the ever-unexplainable dropoff in performance that often can be explained quite simply: baseball is really difficult, and staying among the elite takes a rare, special combination of skill, endurance, adaptability and good fortune.

Those who survive this gantlet become Hank Aaron, Mike Schmidt or Tom Seaver. Those who don't become Darryl Strawberry, Dale Murphy or Fernando Valenzuela—players who for one reason or another didn't make it through the labyrinth without being devoured by the minotaur.

What about today's players? Sure, we can see those who are all but guaranteed their spots in Cooperstown—Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Albert Pujols, to name but three. But what of those whose path is still somewhat unclear, those who at various times have elicited comments similar to those above, but since have seen their destinies become more cloudy?

Those are the players of interest today. And while you may not share the same opinion of whether these ballplayers are future Hall of Famers, it should make for some interesting discussion.

Chase Utley

Utley began his Phillies career with two mediocre partial seasons in 2003-04, but then he got a full-time job and took off. From 2005 to 2009, he received MVP votes in five seasons, was tabbed for four All-Star appearances, and was a four-time Silver Slugger winner. Utley also finished in the National League top five in bWAR in every one of those seasons, coming in as high as second in '08 and '09.

He provided an excellent combination of average, power, speed, and defense, a total package nearly any player would be envious of. He wasn't even afraid to take a pitch to the body, leading the league in hits-by-pitch for three consecutive years.

One small concern is that Utley's career started a bit late, meaning that his first full season of 2005 was his age-26 campaign. Most Hall of Famers have been starters for several seasons by that age. However, after that half-decade of dominance, Utley was only 30 and had plenty of time to add to his impressive resume.

Since that time, though, Utley has seen his playing time and performance drop as knee problems have limited him. He hasn't topped 115 games played since '09, his best home run total has been 16, and his OPS+ has been 123, 110 and 113 after ranging between 125 and 146 in his prime.

Coming into the 2013 season, Utley's career marks were a .288/.376/.500 triple-slash line with a 126 OPS+, 199 home runs, 739 RBIs, 779 runs scored, 121 stolen bases. Those are all solid, but his rate stats have been falling ever since 2010, though this year he's off to basically a career-average start.

Unless you're Bill Mazeroski, you're not getting into the Hall as a defensive second baseman, and Utley's injury history has reduced his effectiveness in the field a bit, and his increasing age will reduce it further, so he's going to have to hit his way into Cooperstown. At age 34, it's looking less and less likely that this will happen. Utley is a terrific ballplayer, but barring a significant upswing in performance, he's not a future Hall of Famer.

Johan Santana

It's interesting that so many people—even those who are sabermetrically inclined—question the decision to move a pitcher from the bullpen to the rotation, even if the player came up through the minors as a starter. It's odd because Earl Weaver, a darling of saber circles, was renowned for doing this as a manager. It's also odd because it's the path Santana took as his career grew from killer reliever to top-notch starter.

Similar to Utley, Santana began his major league career with two partial seasons, mostly coming out of the Twins' bullpen, but starting on occasion, too. He wasn't very good in those initial campaigns, but things started to click in his third year, 2002. Santana was a starter in about half of his appearances, and overall he threw 108.1 innings with 137 strikeouts, a 2.99 ERA and a 150 ERA+. The next season featured similar usage and success, but with better control, over an additional 50 innings.

In 2004, Minnesota took the reins off, and Santana began a reign of terror on hitters everywhere. He had a three-year run in which he won 20, 16 and 19 games, lost a grand total of only 19, and led the American League in strikeouts, ERA+ and WHIP all three years—and his WHIP never topped 1.00 in that time. He also won two Cy Young awards and came in third the other season.

The next two seasons, one with the Twins and the next following a trade to the Mets, were very impressive, if slightly less so. Santana did lead the NL in ERA and innings pitched in his Mets debut in 2008, and the following two years also were very good, though his innings totals fell short of 200 for the first time since '04.

Then the injury bug, which has nibbled at Santana from time to time, bit hard. A torn anterior capsule in his throwing shoulder cost him all of 2011. He came back in 2012 to pitch rather poorly over a half season, and now he's staring at a potential career-ending second tear of his left anterior capsule.

To this point, Santana has a mere 139 wins (against 78 losses, for a .641 winning percentage), 1,988 punchouts in 2,025.2 innngs, a 136 ERA+ and WAR totals of 50.7 (Basball-Referece, 96th all time among pitchers) and 47.4 (FanGraphs). A huge problem for Santana is that, "to this point" may equate to "he ends his career with..." as a return is far from certain, particularly with the guaranteed portion of his contract expiring this year.

If he comes back at all, that dreaded combination of age and injury indicate Santana is highly unlikely to recapture his former glory. What once looked like a career that could rival Roberto Clemente as the best ever by a Rule 5 acquisition now looks like it is all but over, and unquestionably shy of Cooperstown's standards.

Roy Oswalt

Oswalt didn't dawdle at the start of his career like Utley and Santana. Instead, as a starter for the Astros, he led the NL in winning percentage his rookie year with an .824 (14-3) mark, finished second in Rookie of the Year voting, was fifth in the Cy Young tally and even received some MVP votes. With a strikeout-per-nine rate of 9.1, only 1.5 walks per nine, a 170 ERA+ and a 1.06 WHIP, the future looked quite bright for this righty hurler.

And the next several seasons were very impressive as Oswalt won 20 games twice and 19 games another time in Seasons Two through Five, along with 17, 15 and 14 victories in the following three years. His ERA+ never was lower than 119 during his first nine campaigns, and though he never captured a Cy Young award, he was in the top five a total of five times. A mediocre 2009 was followed by a strong 2010 split between Houston and Philadelphia.

Unfortunately, things have petered out quickly since then. Oswalt was solid in 2011 with a 104 ERA+, but over only 139 innings. Last season with Texas was a disaster, as his 5.80 ERA and 79 ERA+ in 59 innings demonstrate. Oswalt reportedly is considering pitching again this season in what would be his age-35 campaign, though whether he can both find a job and perform effectively is highly debatable.

Once again we have a player who started out strong—even more so than the others—and put up a string of terrific seasons, but couldn't maintain that pace, or even a presence on the field that would boost his counting stats. If Oswalt is done, he finishes with 163 victories, a .629 winning percentage, 3.28 ERA and 130 ERA+ over 2,213 innings. WAR puts him at 50.8 (B-Ref, 95th all time among pitchers) and 48.8 (FG).

Overall, Oswalt's numbers looks pretty similar to Santana's, and if they aren't good enough to put the latter into the Hall, they won't be good enough for the former, either.

Todd Helton

Now here's a guy who started out like a house afire. A nice-sized cup of coffee in 1997 was the prelude to Helton's explosion onto the scene. For the next decade, Helton batted over .300 each season, peaking at a league-leading .372 in 2000. He stroked 20 or more home runs for eight consecutive years, maxing out at 49 in 2001, and he had a five-year stretch of over 100 RBI, topping out with 147 in 2000 and 146 in 2001. His OPS+ over his first 10 full seasons ranged from 118 to 165, giving pause to anyone who claimed Helton was a Coors Field creation.

Though some people certainly remained skeptical about the home-field benefits he enjoyed, enough voters appreciated Helton's game to make him a runner-up for Rookie of the Year, five-time All-Star, four-time Silver Slugger, three-time Gold Glover and recipient of MVP votes in six seasons, peaking with a fifth-place finish in that phenomenal 2000 campaign. (In addition to leading the league in average and RBI that year, he topped the senior circuit in hits, doubles, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and total bases.)

Helton tapered off somewhat as he entered his early 30s, with back and hip issues and a host of other maladies slowing him down. Though he produced a couple of solid seasons in 2009 and 2011, Helton has been essentially average at the plate for the past five years, and his first-base defense isn't what it used to be. And the words "Helton" and "speed" will not share a sentence unless a phrase such as "lacking in" is included.

The difficulty for Helton is that the bar for elite first basemen is set so incredibly high. Being very good for a long time is impressive, but being awesome for more than a decade is the minimum required to be a Cooperstown-level first sacker. A career triple-slash line of .320/.418/.544 and OPS of 963 look mighty fine, but Denver's thin air limits Helton's OPS+ to a solid-but-unspectacular 135. His homer total of 355 is light, too, particularly given his home park, and his bWAR mark of 61.6 (fWAR of 56.6) is only 108th among hitters, tied with Sal Bando. (Interestingly, Mark McGwire is just a touch ahead of Helton at 62.0 bWAR.)

Durability is Helton's bugaboo. Had he the health and stamina to maintain the power stroke of his 20s—and maybe if the video-game numbers of the early 2000s still were prominent—Helton would have a much better Hall of Fame case. As is, though, he was merely a terrific player for a decade and a decent one over the following seven seasons. That kind of resume should ensure Helton's legacy in Colorado and beyond, but not all the way to upstate New York.

Roy Halladay

I didn't want to lead off with Halladay, because I figured those who think he's already a Hall of Famer might have stopped reading right then. And while I'll concede he is a good candidate for enshrinement, I don't know if Halladay is the slam dunk many seem to think he is, if he has the resume Hall of Fame voters are looking for. Hear me out.

On the plus side, Halladay has won 66.3 percent of his decisions, with a 3.33 ERA, a 1.33 ERA+, and a 3.69 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's a two-time Cy Young award winner with two other runner-up finishes and a total of seven top-five finishes, and he has made eight All-Star squads. Additionally, his top season win totals of 22, 21, 20 and 19 are such to catch the eye of traditionalists.

On the other hand, Halladay has "only" 201 total victories and a middling 6.9 strikeouts-per-nine mark, whiffing just 2,086 batters in his career, a number A.J. Burnett is close to. He's had only two middling seasons since his atrocious 10.64 ERA year in 2000 (mentioned primarily to show how well he bounced back from adversity), though one was last year, and his 2013 campaign has begun poorly.

Given the increased emphasis on bullpens and the decreased emphasis on pitcher wins, it's likely many voters see Halladay's value. He's currently 40th all time in bWAR with 66.3 and has accumulated 68.3 fWAR, and another three WAR would push him into Baseball-Reference's top 30. Basically, if he can keep going at even a workmanlike pace for two or three more years, it's difficult to see a scenario in which Halladay does not get voted into Cooperstown not long after his career ends.

Others

There were a few other active players I considered investigating further, but I declined for a variety of reasons. Tim Lincecum was stellar for four years, but that's not enough time to establish an interesting case. Alex Rodriguez is in his own bizarre category—in this discussion and many others. Manny Ramirez is still going, though on the other side of the world, and his two suspensions complicate his case in a unique manner. Lance Berkman may be worth studying, too, but he didn't seem to have that strong mid-career support these other fellows did.

Your turn

So, what do you think? Which of these players are headed to Cooperstown? Who else fits this description and deserves mention? The Comments section awaits your input.

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FCC failure

Greg Simons — 2013-04-22T19:24:15+00:00

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Everything matters

Greg Simons — 2013-04-16T07:19:15+00:00

(All stats are through Sunday, April 14.)

As always, the early stages of the baseball season lead to some funky numbers for individuals and teams. There are hot starts, cold starts and mediocre starts. Some players are far exceeding expectations, others are struggling to get their WARs into positive territory, and still others have you looking at their stats and saying, "Yep, that looks about right."

Which of these numbers are significant? All of them, of course. No, they're not significant in the sense that we can expect to see Chris Davis, John Buck and Dexter Fowler atop the home run leader board at season's end—though Justin Upton is a good candidate.

Nor will Jake Westbrook maintain a 0.00 ERA all season long while striking out 2.3 batters per nine innings, and Edinson Volquez won't post an 11.68 ERA for the year while punching out 6.6 men per nine. The Braves aren't going to win 92 percent of their games, either, even if they finally get some production from B.J. Upton and Jason Heyward (my preseason pick for NL MVP), who are batting a combined .134 thus far.

These numbers have meaning in the sense that they're in the books, "and can't nothin' take that away" from those who compiled them. Many sabermetricians cry "small sample size" and "it's early," and they're right, but that doesn't mean we can't tease out some trends in the early going that are at least worth following.

Want some examples? Okay, how about these...

Whiffs galore

The American League's newest team, the Houston Astros, are striking out at a record-breaking pace. Through their first 12 games, the 'Stros have 121 Ks, and that 10.08-per-game rate is over 1.5 strikeouts above the mark of the all-time champions, last year's Oakland A's, who had 1,387 Ks, or 8.56 per game. Will Houston continue to whiff at that rate? Certainly not, but the Astros may become the first team ever to strike out once per inning for an entire campaign.

Consider that the Astros are going to be awful this season. They're young, with only Carlos Pena and Rick Ankiel over 30 among the hitters (and the same constraint leaves only Erik Bedard and Jose Veras among the pitchers). With that youth comes inexperience.

Having traded away several experienced batters (and pitchers, too) the last two or three years, Houston management knew the team would be in for quite a rough stretch, and not surprisingly, those growing pains include learning how to hit against the best pitchers on the planet.

Of course, striking out carries less stigma than it used to, and the parade of bullpen pitchers these days means nearly every moundsman is going full tilt on every pitch. Mix in a new set of opposing hurlers with the move to the AL, and the Astros' pups are somewhat literally out of their league.

Experience and the law of averages, or regression to the mean if you're so inclined, should bring Houston's strikeout totals back to a reasonable level, but perhaps not so reasonable to avoid setting a record for team whiffs in a single season.

Tough breaks, literally

Within a stretch of a few days, both Los Angeles teams had key starting pitchers break bones. First, Jered Weaver broke his left elbow while avoiding a liner back up the middle. Just days later, Zack Greinke was the recipient of a broken collarbone courtesy of Carlos Quentin. Fortunately, the injuries were to the non-throwing sides of their bodies, making their recoveries shorter and less worrisome. Weaver is expected to return in four to six weeks, Greinke in about two months.

Still, losing a major rotation piece stings for both teams. Weaver clearly is the best pitcher on the Angels staff, so even though Garrett Richards should be an adequate fill-in, the LA team from Anaheim is going to be undermanned while battling Texas and Oakland in what is likely to be a three-team scuffle in the AL West.

Slipping a game or two off the pace because of a short-term pitching deficiency could be the difference between a division title or a Wild Card, or maybe between playing baseball or golf in October. Oh, yeah, and the Angels have started the year 4-8, so there's that little concern, too.

The Dodgers also are likely to find themselves in a season-long tussle, with the Giants their likely arch-rivals. In the National League, there appear to be six teams—those two plus the Braves, Nationals, Reds and Cardinals—battling for five playoff spots.

Throw a sleeper team or two—the Diamondbacks, Pirates, or the mystery team—into the mix, and you have a tough scrum ahead for the next five-and-a-half months. Losing an ace pitcher for one-third of the season is the first ingredient in a recipe for being the sixth-best team in the league and on the outside looking in come playoff time.

Blowing it big-time

Yes, the closer role often is overrated. Many closers are simply failed starters, guys who didn't have the pitch repertoire, stamina, talent, or health to take the mound successfully every fifth day. Still, the ability to shut down the opponent in the final frame, to slam the door on an attempted comeback, has quantifiable, if immeasurable, impact on a team. We know a win is a win, but we don't know the psychological impact of finishing off a hard-fought victory or a choking away a seemingly assured win.

The NL Central is ground zero for closer implosions so far this season. With Jason Motte on the disabled list and possibly facing season-ending Tommy John surgery, Mitchell Boggs was handed the closer role. Prior to 2013, Boggs had converted only four of 11 save opportunities, and he's continued that trend this season, saving two games and failing to do so two other times.

With an 11.37 ERA and 2.05 WHIP, Boggs is instilling very little confidence in the Cardinals or their fans, and too many more blown saves could mean trouble as St. Louis dukes it out with Cincinnati throughout the year. With Trevor Rosenthal also performing below expectations, the Cards may turn to Edward Mujica—who took the loss on Sunday—to close out games. Regardless of who gets the ball in the ninth, the Redbirds need to get their bullpen in order very soon.

Neither the Cubs nor Brewers are likely to be competitive this season, but that doesn't mean they don't care if they have a good closer, if only so they can deal him to a contender later this summer. Well, Carlos Marmol and John Axford have seen their already deflated stock values plummet.

Marmol was removed "temporarily" from Chicago's ninth-inning role, and his 7.94 ERA and 2.12 WHIP explain why. Actually, his 27.00 ERA and 4.80 WHIP at the time of his demotion explained why, as Marmol has thrown four scoreless innings with a 1.00 WHIP since becoming a middle reliever.

Axford currently sports a lovely 18.69 ERA and 2.54 WHIP, and they are that low because he blanked St. Louis for one frame on Saturday. The would-be closer wasn't used in Sunday's tight contest at all, indicative of how little trust the team has in him at this point.

Yes, these are microscopic sample sizes, and these pitchers are bound to get better, but with relievers throwing so few innings, it could be a while before their numbers look respectable. And for a team like the Cubs, who are openly looking to deal Marmol, they need those numbers to get better sooner rather than later.

Blown calls

When Marty Foster rang up the Rays' Ben Zobrist to end Tampa Bay's recent 5-4 loss to the Rangers—on what was one of the more egregious game-ending calls in the internet era—he set off a firestorm, and apologizing afterward just added fuel to the blaze.

Will that loss cost the Tampa Bay a playoff berth? Possibly. Will the victory push Texas into the postseason? Maybe. Yes, it was only one game, and there are five and a half still to play, but a one-game difference in the standings could be crucial come September.

Aside from the playoff implications of the call, we witnessed yet one more awful call by an umpire. The cries for robotic strike zones rung out once again, and they won't get any quieter when every play is available quite literally at our fingertips.

With Bud Selig not set to retire until sometime in the next millennium, it's questionable whether replay will be expanded significantly anytime soon. But with each and every major faux pas the umpires make, we're getting closer and closer to a time when technology ensures the calls are called correctly.

Near-perfect games

With perfect games becoming so cliche after we saw three last season, and six in the last four years (plus nine more plain-ol' no-hitters in that time frame), perhaps Yu Darvish was hoping to follow Armando Galarraga's example and become more memorable for not quite achieving perfection.

If he'd planned it better, Darvish would have bobbled that comebacker, thrown it to first base at the perfect time to force a bang-bang play, and left us all subjected to countless replays of the ball hitting the first baseman's mitt at the same instant the runner's foot touched the bag. Yeah, if only...

Will perfect games and no-hitters become so commonplace that we get bored by them? Are we there already? Just asking those questions reveals how spoiled we become by the recent mound mastery that's been on display.

Jose Fernandez

The formula for dealing with hot prospects is simple. When they're ready for the bigs, let them simmer in the minors a few weeks longer so the team will have control over them for an extra season. This goes double for a team out of contention and triple for one on a limited budget, since avoiding Super Two status is a financial windfall.

And then there are the Miami Marlins and the way they are handling Jose Fernandez. After advancing only to High-A ball last season—though he thoroughly dominated hitters all season long—Fernandez seemed destined for Double-A to begin 2013. If he continued to mow down batters, he'd move up to Triple-A, and he might even get a big league look come September.

But with Miami extraordinarily unlikely to be competitive for at least the next two years, even that promotion schedule would have been aggressive. Keep the wunderkind down on the farm, wait until the major league roster is improved, and then unleash Fernandez's reign of terror on major league hitters.

Nope. The Marlins shocked everyone by putting Fernandez in their major league rotation to start the season, and he has a 0.82 ERA, 13 strikeouts and a 0.73 WHIP in his first 11 innings.

Is this a trend we'll see other teams follow? Not bloody likely. The Tampa Bay RFays will keep Wil Myers in Durham until they know he won't cost them a few extra million in 2016. Oscar Taveras and Jurickson Profar are in the minors because of the positional logjams in front of them and the savvy of the front offices that drafted them. These franchises know how to balance the win-now vs. win-later equation. The Marlins are just crazy.

Not that this is news. The team that has won two World Series without capturing a division crown, that squeezed a ballpark out of an apathetic surrounding population (with some helpful governmental intervention) and put a gaudy freak show beyond the left-field wall, that traded for Ozzie Guillen to be its manager—that team does things its own way.

Watching the Marlins pull crazy shenanigans is a trend we can count on to last well beyond the first month of the season.

-----

If your favorite team is in first place, don't schedule your vacation around the postseason just yet. Or if your fantasy team is blowing away the competition, don't get prepped for your Yoohoo shower. But it's certainly a fun time to do a little smack talkin', even if you know it could blow up in your face.

On the flip side, if your hometown team is in the cellar or your fantasy squad is last in the majority of the categories, don't panic. However, being in the running come late summer will be that much more difficult, because your team has put itself in a hole that must be dug out of.

It's early, but the season has begun. The games of spring training meant zilch, but the games of April mean exactly as much as those of September, so pay attention to it all. There's plenty of noise interfering with the signal, but the message your team is broadcasting has meaning, even if the static makes it difficult to comprehend.

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Why we’re all wrong

Greg Simons — 2013-04-10T07:15:15+00:00

This might seem like an odd topic given that just last week we published our 2013 season predictions. Every spring, we—and many others—try our best to consider the talent on hand for each team and determine how things will shake out come October. And every fall we find that, often to a significant extent, we were off base.

Sure, some of those miscalculations are due to injuries. The 2011 Boston Red Sox may not have called it a season in July and dealt many of their pricey players to the Los Angeles Dodgers if their other high-dollar players were healthy and effective. On the flip side, the Cincinnati Reds were expected to be good last year, and they were. Yes, they lost Joey Votto for much of the season, but having their five initial rotation members take the ball in all but one start played a significant role in Cincinnati's division title. So, yeah, injuries.

A truly nebulous factor many baseball analysts use to account for their failed predictions is the all-encompassing "luck." A team outperforms its Pythagorean record? Must be good luck. A hitter posts a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) 50 points below the league average? Sucks to be him, but it will balance out next year. Lady Luck giveth, and Lady Luck taketh away.

But what are the other reasons prognosticators flub the upcoming year's standings, let alone something as fickle as MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year selections? Why do we sometimes fail to see the forest, the trees, and even the sky from time to time?

One factor—and this is something we call managers out on frequently—is that we're conservative. Few people want to stand out for fear of looking foolish. (One exception is our own Mat Kovach, who is such an indomitable Indians fan that he picks them to win the World Series every year and even donated a "t" from his first name to help create the "Go Tribe!" slogan.)

If last March a member of our staff had picked the O's and A's to make the playoffs, imagine the invective that would have been directed at the author of those picks. The comments section would have been awash with accusations of homerism, mind-altering drugs or just plain stupidity. And the THT internal mailing list would have been much worse.

Another key factor we outsiders aren't privy to is what exactly goes on within front offices. This isn't an appeal-to-authority argument, where we should hand over our minds to those "in the know," but an acknowledgement that the people running teams have more resources, more data and more expertise than any of us. And sometimes those people are clever enough to make moves that from the fans' perspective look crazy but work out beautifully.

How did the 2012 Orioles have only one pitcher start more than 20 games or pitch more than 134 innings yet still win 93 games? How did Baltimore survive despite using a grand total of 52 players—26 pitchers and 26 position players—over the course of the campaign? And how on earth do the O's go 29-9 in one-run games and win 16 consecutive extra-inning affairs?

Yeah, I know, it's luck, it's not repeatable, and it's not sustainable. It worked for the most of the 2012 season, though, didn't it? Okay, but how?

Certainly, general manager Dan Duquette deserves credit for signing key contributors like Nate McLouth and Wei-Yin Chen, trading for the likes of Jason Hammel, Joe Saunders and Pedro Strop, and shuttling players on and off the 25-man roster, such as shortstop-turned third baseman Manny Machado. And manager Buck Showalter—long considered an excellent field general—mixed, matched, tweaked and toyed with his lineup and rotation with devastating efficacy. He put his players in spots where they could succeed, and they came through quite often.

Will that happen again in 2013? Everyone (including me) says no, but if Baltimore outperforms its expected record yet again this season—even if it's to a lesser extent—should anyone really be shocked?

On the other coast, sabermetric darling Billy Beane enjoyed a renaissance after a fallow stretch in Oakland. I'll admitted that I had begun to wonder if Beane's success had been linked to having the trio of Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder in the rotation for their prime seasons, but the team's late-season surge to the AL West title last year demonstrated Beane can do more than ride his big horses to victory.

Beane and the rest of the Oakland front office showed they still know how to put together a competitive team while keeping costs down. Signing Yoenis Cespedes and Bartolo Colon (not to overlook his PED suspension), trading for Josh Reddick, Jarrod Parker, and Tommy Milone, and grabbing Travis Blackley off waivers are a few examples of the acumen the A's demonstrated in assembling last year's division champion on the cheap.

Counting on another set of fantastic performances from rookie pitchers isn't realistic, but adding reinforcements this winter such as catcher John Jaso, shortstop Jed Lowrie and outfielder Chris Young will once again give Oakland an opportunity to run with the big boys from Anaheim and Arlington. You know, the ones printing money from their new television deals.

The poor little A's—with a stadium they desperately want to leave behind, attendance figures dwarfed by most of their competition, and another meager payroll—are quite likely to put a scare into the Angels and Rangers all season long.

The thing is, even if Baltimore and Oakland fall flat this year, there will be a team or two that looked dead in the water in March that will be alive and kicking in September, thrashing the supposed favorites and making a run for October glory.

But who will it be? Let's try out a few scenarios.

The Mets? Maybe. If they can patch together a major league-quality outfield, John Buck and Travis d'Arnaud provide a good return for R.A. Dickey, and the young pitching coalesces, New York could challenge the Nationals and Braves.

The Royals? They have a collection of highly touted young hitters who all could click at the same time, James Shields could anchor the rotation, and Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana and Wade Davis could follow him with above-average mound performances. The Tigers look terrific again, but they waited until the final week of the 2012 campaign to assert themselves. A lackadaisical Detroit summer could open up an opportunity for Kansas City to surprise.

The Rockies? Sure, why not? (Okay, probably not, but work with me.) If Colorado's hitters can thump the ball outside Denver, and they can get some health and consistency from the rotation—meaning the bullpen doesn't have to throw four innings a game—the Rockies could make the $200-million Dodgers and defending world champion Giants nervous.

This type of "what-if" scenarios can be created for every seemingly sad-sack team. And one or two of those shot-in-the-dark schemes actually are quite likely to happen. We just don't know which ones.

Hope and faith are alive and well in baseball. Large-market vs. small-market, big payroll vs. little payroll, three million fans compared to half that—those factors all play a part, but they don't tell the whole story. Intelligence, planning, and coaching; a new baby in the family, a divorce, or other personal situations; and, yes, plain ol' luck—this multitude of characteristics of a baseball season will hold sway, too, influencing the games in unforeseen ways.

We take our best guesses at how the season will play out, but we do so knowing we'll be wrong. It's one of the beauties of baseball, and I wouldn't want it any other way.

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2013 staff predictions

Greg Simons — 2013-04-01T07:13:15+00:00

Sure, the season may have (just barely) begun already, but that doesn't invalidate these predictions from THT's staff. This merry band of prognosticators took a stab at foretelling how the 2013 season will play out, a subject we'll revisit for reward and ridicule at the end of the year. For now, see how our contributors' picks compare to your own.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

                      1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th
John Barten           TB     TOR    BAL    NYY    BOS
Mike Clark            TOR    NYY    TB     BAL    BOS
Joe Distelheim        TB     TOR    NYY    BOS    BAL
Matt Filippi          TOR    NYY    TB     BOS    BAL
Nick Fleder           TOR    TB     NYY    BOS    BAL
James Gentile         TB     TOR    NYY    BOS    BAL
Jeffrey Gross         TOR    TB     BAL    NYY    BOS
Sam Hendrickson       TB     TOR    NYY    BOS    BAL
Matt Hunter           TOR    TB     NYY    BOS    BAL
Chris Jaffe           TB     BOS    NYY    BAL    TOR
Brad Johnson          TOR    TB     BAL    NYY    BOS
Dan Lependorf         TB     TOR    NYY    BOS    BAL
Jason Linden          TOR    TB     BOS    BAL    NYY
Bruce Markusen        TOR    TB     NYY    BAL    BOS
Greg Simons           TB     TOR    BOS    NYY    BAL
Dave Studeman         TB     TOR    NYY    BOS    BAL
Paul Francis Sullivan TB     TOR    NYY    BAL    BOS
Shane Tourtellotte    TOR    TB     BOS    BAL    NYY
Steve Treder          TB     TOR    NYY    BOS    BAL
Doug Wachter          TOR    TB     BOS    NYY    BAL 
Jack Weiland          TOR    TB     BOS    NYY    BAL

Consensus             TOR    TB     NYY    BOS    BAL

By the narrowest of margins, 11-10, the Blue Jays are predicted to take the AL East over the Rays. The Yankees, perennial playoff participants, will have to hope they can snag the second Wild Card from third place. The Red Sox are expected to bounce back from last season's cellar-dweller status all the way up to fourth place. Meanwhile, last year's close-and-late darlings, the Orioles, don't appear to have Lady Luck favoring them in 2013.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

                      1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th
John Barten           DET    KC     CHW    CLE    MIN
Mike Clark            DET    KC     CHW    CLE    MIN
Joe Distelheim        DET    KC     CLE    CHW    MIN
Matt Filippi          DET    CLE    CHW    KC     MIN
Nick Fleder           CLE    DET    KC     CHW    MIN
James Gentile         DET    CHW    CLE    KC     MIN
Jeffrey Gross         DET    CLE    KC     CHW    MIN
Sam Hendrickson       DET    CHW    KC     MIN    CLE
Matt Hunter           DET    CLE    KC     CHW    MIN
Chris Jaffe           DET    KC     CHW    CLE    MIN
Brad Johnson          DET    CHW    CLE    KC     MIN
Dan Lependorf         DET    CHW    CLE    KC     MIN
Jason Linden          DET    CLE    CHW    KC     MIN
Bruce Markusen        KC     DET    CLE    CHW    MIN
Greg Simons           DET    CLE    CHW    KC     MIN
Dave Studeman         DET    CHW    CLE    KC     MIN
Paul Francis Sullivan DET    KC     CHW    CLE    MIN
Shane Tourtellotte    DET    CLE    KC     CHW    MIN
Steve Treder          DET    CHW    CLE    KC     MIN
Doug Wachter          DET    CLE    KC     CHW    MIN
Jack Weiland          DET    CLE    KC     CHW    MIN

Consensus             DET    CLE    KC     CHW    MIN

Receiving 19 of 21 votes first-place votes, the Tigers are clear favorites in the AL Central. After that, though, things get very, very muddy. The Indians, with their new manager and two pricey outfield signings, squeak into second place. The Royals edge the White Sox for third thanks to Kansas City receiving one first-place vote. (That crazy Bruce!) The Twins finishing anywhere other than last would be a stunner (unless you're Sam), though we said the same thing about Baltimore last preseason.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

                      1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th
John Barten           TEX    LAA    SEA    OAK    HOU
Mike Clark            LAA    OAK    TEX    SEA    HOU
Joe Distelheim        LAA    OAK    TEX    SEA    HOU
Matt Filippi          LAA    TEX    OAK    SEA    HOU
Nick Fleder           LAA    SEA    OAK    TEX    HOU
James Gentile         LAA    TEX    OAK    SEA    HOU
Jeffrey Gross         LAA    OAK    TEX    SEA    HOU
Sam Hendrickson       OAK    LAA    TEX    SEA    HOU
Matt Hunter           LAA    TEX    OAK    SEA    HOU
Chris Jaffe           LAA    TEX    OAK    SEA    HOU
Brad Johnson          TEX    LAA    OAK    SEA    HOU
Dan Lependorf         TEX    OAK    LAA    SEA    HOU
Jason Linden          LAA    OAK    TEX    SEA    HOU
Bruce Markusen        LAA    OAK    TEX    SEA    HOU
Greg Simons           LAA    OAK    TEX    SEA    HOU
Dave Studeman         TEX    LAA    OAK    SEA    HOU
Paul Francis Sullivan LAA    OAK    TEX    SEA    HOU
Shane Tourtellotte    LAA    TEX    OAK    SEA    HOU
Steve Treder          LAA    OAK    TEX    SEA    HOU
Doug Wachter          LAA    TEX    OAK    SEA    HOU 
Jack Weiland          TEX    LAA    OAK    SEA    HOU

Consensus             LAA    TEX    OAK    SEA    HOU

The Angels are favored by nearly three-fourths of our staff members, with the Rangers taking all but one of the remaining first-place tallies. The A's are not expected to relive last year's surprise run to the AL West title (unless you're Sam—again), picked to come in third. With one exception, the Mariners took all the fourth-place votes, and the AL's newest squad, the Astros, are unanimously seen as a last-place team.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

                      1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th
John Barten           WAS    ATL    NYM    PHI    MIA
Mike Clark            WAS    ATL    PHI    MIA    NYM
Joe Distelheim        WAS    ATL    PHI    NYM    MIA
Matt Filippi          WAS    ATL    PHI    NYM    MIA
Nick Fleder           WAS    ATL    PHI    NYM    MIA
James Gentile         WAS    ATL    PHI    NYM    MIA
Jeffrey Gross         ATL    WAS    PHI    NYM    MIA
Sam Hendrickson       WAS    ATL    PHI    NYM    MIA
Matt Hunter           WAS    ATL    NYM    PHI    MIA
Chris Jaffe           WAS    ATL    PHI    MIA    NYM
Brad Johnson          WAS    ATL    PHI    NYM    MIA
Dan Lependorf         WAS    ATL    PHI    NYM    MIA
Jason Linden          WAS    ATL    PHI    NYM    MIA
Bruce Markusen        WAS    ATL    PHI    NYM    MIA
Greg Simons           WAS    ATL    PHI    NYM    MIA
Dave Studeman         ATL    WAS    PHI    NYM    MIA
Paul Francis Sullivan WAS    ATL    PHI    MIA    NYM
Shane Tourtellotte    WAS    ATL    PHI    NYM    MIA
Steve Treder          WAS    ATL    PHI    NYM    MIA
Doug Wachter          WAS    ATL    NYM    PHI    MIA 
Jack Weiland          WAS    ATL    PHI    MIA    NYM

Consensus             WAS    ATL    PHI    NYM    MIA

Matching Detroit with 19 first-place votes are the Nationals, while the Braves took the same number of second-place selections. The Phillies have been chosen to repeat their mediocrity, the Mets are picked to avoid the cellar, a position 17 voters designated for the dirt-cheap Marlins.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

                      1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th
John Barten           STL    CIN    MIL    CHC    PIT
Mike Clark            CIN    STL    PIT    MIL    CHC
Joe Distelheim        CIN    STL    MIL    PIT    CHC
Matt Filippi          CIN    STL    MIL    PIT    CHC
Nick Fleder           CIN    PIT    STL    MIL    CHC
James Gentile         CIN    STL    PIT    MIL    CHC
Jeffrey Gross         STL    CIN    PIT    CHC    MIL
Sam Hendrickson       CIN    STL    PIT    MIL    CHC
Matt Hunter           CIN    STL    MIL    PIT    CHC
Chris Jaffe           STL    CIN    MIL    PIT    CHC
Brad Johnson          STL    CIN    MIL    CHC    PIT
Dan Lependorf         CIN    STL    PIT    MIL    CHC
Jason Linden          CIN    STL    MIL    PIT    CHC
Bruce Markusen        CIN    STL    PIT    MIL    CHC
Greg Simons           CIN    STL    PIT    MIL    CHC
Dave Studeman         STL    CIN    PIT    MIL    CHC
Paul Francis Sullivan STL    CIN    PIT    MIL    CHC
Shane Tourtellotte    CIN    STL    PIT    MIL    CHC
Steve Treder          STL    CIN    MIL    CHC    PIT
Doug Wachter          CIN    STL    MIL    CHC    PIT
Jack Weiland          CIN    STL    CHC    PIT    MIL

Consensus             CIN    STL    PIT    MIL    CHC

Two-thirds of THTers see the Reds as the NL Central champs, while the rest favor the Cardinals. In another tight vote in a Central division, the Pirates just edge the Brewers for third place. In something less than a landslide, the Cubs are chosen for the cellar.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

                      1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th
John Barten           SF     ARI    LAD    SD     COL
Mike Clark            LAD    SF     ARI    SD     COL
Joe Distelheim        ARI    LAD    SF     SD     COL
Matt Filippi          LAD    SF     ARI    SD     COL
Nick Fleder           SF     LAD    ARI    SD     COL
James Gentile         LAD    SF     ARI    SD     COL
Jeffrey Gross         LAD    ARI    SF     SD     COL
Sam Hendrickson       SF     ARI    LAD    SD     COL
Matt Hunter           LAD    ARI    SF     SD     COL
Chris Jaffe           LAD    SF     SD     ARI    COL
Brad Johnson          SF     ARI    LAD    SD     COL
Dan Lependorf         SF     LAD    ARI    SD     COL
Jason Linden          LAD    SF     ARI    SD     COL
Bruce Markusen        LAD    SF     ARI    COL    SD
Greg Simons           LAD    SF     ARI    SD     COL
Dave Studeman         LAD    SF     ARI    SD     COL
Paul Francis Sullivan SF     LAD    SD     ARI    COL
Shane Tourtellotte    LAD    SF     ARI    SD     COL
Steve Treder          SF     LAD    ARI    SD     COL
Doug Wachter          SF     LAD    ARI    SD     COL
Jack Weiland          LAD    SF     ARI    SD     COL

Consensus             LAD    SF     ARI    SD     COL

The big-spending Dodgers look to be buying an NL West title, pushing last year's world champion Giants to second. Arizona and its gaggle of outfielders are slated for third place. About the only nice thing to say about the Padres is that Bruce picked them for last, preventing the Rockies from sweeping that spot.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WILD CARDS/AWARDS

                      AL WC      AL MVP             AL Cy Young         AL ROY
John Barten           TOR/LAA    Mike Trout         Justin Verlander    Jurickson Profar
Mike Clark            NYY/OAK    Mike Trout         Justin Verlander    Jurickson Profar
Joe Distelheim        TOR/OAK    Yoenis Cespedes    Yu Darvish          Wil Myers
Matt Filippi          NYY/TEX    Robinson Cano      Felix Hernandez     Aaron Hicks
Nick Fleder           TB/LAA     Evan Longoria      Yu Darvish          Jackie Bradley Jr.
James Gentile         TOR/NYY    Mike Trout         Justin Verlander    Wil Myers
Jeffrey Gross         TB/OAK     Jose Bautista      Yu Darvish          Jurickson Profar
Sam Hendrickson       TOR/LAA    Jose Bautista      Felix Hernandez     Jackie Bradley Jr.
Matt Hunter           TB/TEX     Robinson Cano      David Price         Aaron Hicks
Chris Jaffe           BOS/TEX    Mike Trout         Justin Verlander    N/A
Brad Johnson          LAA/OAK    Albert Pujols      Justin Verlander    Jackie Bradley Jr.
Dan Lependorf         TOR/OAK    Mike Trout         Chris Sale          Wil Myers
Jason Linden          TB/BOS     Mike Trout         Justin Verlander    N/A
Bruce Markusen        TB/TEX     Mike Trout         Justin Verlander    Jackie Bradley Jr.
Greg Simons           TOR/OAK    Mike Trout         Justin Verlander    Wil Myers
Dave Studeman         TOR/LAA    Mike Trout         Yu Darvish          Wil Myers
Paul Francis Sullivan TOR/OAK    Evan Longoria      Jered Weaver        Chris Archer
Shane Tourtellotte    TB/LAA     Evan Longoria      Yu Darvish          Jackie Bradley Jr.
Steve Treder          TOR/OAK    Mike Trout         Justin Verlander    Wil Myers
Doug Wachter          TB/TEX     Mike Trout         Justin Verlander    Aaron Hicks
Jack Weiland          TB/LAA     Evan Longoria      Justin Verlander    Wil Myers

Consensus             TB/OAK     Mike Trout         Justin Verlander    Wil Myers

Among those teams not predicted to win their division, the Rays and A's got the most Wild Card votes, eight apiece. Last year's Rookie of the Year, Mike Trout, is forecast to be capture the MVP award many thought he should have had last season. Justin Verlander, baseball's newest ultra-wealthy pitcher, looks set to recapture his Cy Young form, and the plurality of voters anointed Wil Myers as this campaign's Rookie of the Year.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WILD CARDS/AWARDS

                      NL WC      NL MVP             NL Cy Young         NL ROY
John Barten           ATL/CIN    Matt Holliday      Stephen Strasburg   Zack Wheeler
Mike Clark            ATL/STL    Joey Votto         Stephen Strasburg   Oscar Taveras
Joe Distelheim        ATL/LAD    Joey Votto         Stephen Strasburg   Gerrit Cole
Matt Filippi          ATL/STL    Bryce Harper       Stephen Strasburg   Adam Eaton
Nick Fleder           ATL/LAD    Giancarlo Stanton  Stephen Strasburg   Julio Teheran 
James Gentile         WAS/CIN    Joey Votto         Stephen Strasburg   Oscar Taveras
Jeffrey Gross         WAS/ARI    Bryce Harper       Stephen Strasburg   Shelby Miller
Sam Hendrickson       ATL/STL    Joey Votto         Stephen Strasburg   Shelby Miller
Matt Hunter           ATL/STL    Joey Votto         Stephen Strasburg   Oscar Taveras
Chris Jaffe           ATL/SF     Joey Votto         Matt Cain           N/A 
Brad Johnson          ATL/PHI    Bryce Harper       Stephen Strasburg   Jedd Gyorko
Dan Lependorf         STL/LAD    Joey Votto         Gio Gonzalez        Julio Teheran
Jason Linden          ATL/STL    Joey Votto         Stephen Strasburg   N/A
Bruce Markusen        ATL/STL    Matt Kemp          Stephen Strasburg   Shelby Miller
Greg Simons           ATL/SF     Jason Heyward      Clayton Kershaw     Travis D'Arnaud
Dave Studeman         WAS/CIN    Joey Votto         Stephen Strasburg   Oscar Taveras
Paul Francis Sullivan ATL/CIN    Joey Votto         Clayton Kershaw     Oscar Taveras
Shane Tourtellotte    ATL/SF     Andrew McCutchen   Stephen Strasburg   Julio Teheran 
Steve Treder          ATL/CIN    Joey Votto         Matt Cain           Julio Teheran 
Doug Wachter          ATL/LAD    Andrew McCutchen   Gio Gonzalez        Shelby Miller 
Jack Weiland          ATL/SF     Joey Votto         Stephen Strasburg   Adam Eaton

Consensus             ATL/STL    Joey Votto         Stephen Strasburg   Oscar Taveras

The Braves are a clear first Wild Card, with the Cardinals slotting in to make another trip to Atlanta for the one-game showdown. A healthy Joey Votto means another MVP campaign, according to our voters. And a full, healthy season from Stephen Strasburg ought to be enough for him to earn his first Cy Young. In a much-divided vote, Oscar Taveras sneaks past Julio Teheran and Shelby Miller to earn the nod as ROY.

POSTSEASON, BABY!

John Barten             Rays      over Giants
Mike Clark              Nationals over Tigers
Joe Distelheim          Nationals over Tigers
Matt Filippi            Nationals over Angels
Nick Fleder             Rays      over Nationals
James Gentile           Nationals over Tigers
Jeffrey Gross           Braves    over Rays
Sam Hendrickson         Tigers    over Nationals
Matt Hunter             Angels    over Nationals
Chris Jaffe             Rays      over Braves
Brad Johnson            Nationals over Rangers
Dan Lependorf           Reds      over Tigers
Jason Linden            Reds      over Blue Jays
Bruce Markusen          Braves    over A's
Greg Simons             Nationals over Tigers
Dave Studeman           Nationals over Rays
Paul Francis Sullivan   Cardinals over Rays
Shane Tourtellotte      Tigers    over Nationals
Steve Treder            Nationals over Tigers
Doug Wachter            Nationals over Angels 
Jack Weiland            Reds      over Rays

Consensus               AL Champ: Tigers   NL Champ: Nationals   WS Champ: Nationals

Ladies and gentlemen, you read it here first. The Washington Nationals are going to defeat the Detroit Tigers to win the 2013 World Series title. Or not.

We can do our best to make these predictions, but few foresaw the Giants over Tigers last year. It's possible that this season will work out just as we anticipate, but it's much more likely that we'll be stunned by numerous developments within the game. That's why they play the games and why we love to follow along.

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Tough time for NL third sackers

Greg Simons — 2013-03-27T09:10:15+00:00

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