The Hardball Times -- Geoff Young

Five questions: San Diego Padres

Geoff Young — 2011-03-31T09:04:15+00:00

In the wake of one of the most successful and surprising (most analysts picked the Padres to finish last in the NL West, and I took a few good-natured jabs for picking them to finish ahead of Arizona) seasons in Padres history, the club finds itself in a state of flux. On the bright side, the Padres usually are in a state of flux and seem to be comfortable operating within that reality. As the song says, "Changes aren't permanent, but change is."

How do the Padres replace Adrian Gonzalez?

They don't.

In last year's preview, I advised fans to "enjoy him while you can and hope he brings something good in return when the time comes." Gonzalez is an elite talent. When you remove him from the equation, you can't plug someone else in and expect similar results. Not when you're operating with one of the smallest payrolls in baseball, anyway.

Short-term, the Padres have brought in Brad Hawpe and Jorge Cantu to duct tape the void. Both are coming off poor seasons, and neither cost much. The hope is that they'll party like it's 2009. Oliver pegs Hawpe at .253/.349/.442 and Cantu at .273/.322/.439, both of which fall well short of the .298/.396/.561 projected for Gonzalez. But then, there's a reason he is (or soon will be) much more expensive than Hawpe and Cantu.

The Padres also will rely on a more balanced attack, as opposed to the "superstar and scrubs" approach that netted them 90 wins in 2010. Intuitively, it seems that such diversification would help mitigate risk, but studies don't support that notion—at least not to the degree Padres fans might like.

Long-term, Anthony Rizzo, who came from Boston as part of the package for Gonzalez, is one option. Optimists point to their similar seasons at the same age while playing for Double-A Portland:

                  Yr Age Lg  PA   BA  OBP  SLG BB  SO
Anthony Rizzo   2010  20 EL 467 .263 .334 .481 45 100
Adrian Gonzalez 2002  20 EL 573 .266 .344 .437 54 112

We're cherry picking to illustrate a point, but naysayers could advance, say, Edgard Clemente as a counterexample (different home park, but same league):

                  Yr Age Lg  PA   BA  OBP  SLG BB  SO
Anthony Rizzo   2010  20 EL 467 .263 .334 .481 45 100
Edgard Clemente 1996  20 EL 543 .290 .365 .484 53 114

This speaks as much to the folly of relying solely on statistical comps as a basis for evaluation as it does anything, so let's see what the experts have to say. John Sickels calls Rizzo a Grade B prospect, Keith Law ranks him No. 38 overall among current MLB prospects, Kevin Goldstein rates him No. 3 in the Padres system, and Baseball America puts him at No. 2 (and No. 75 in all of baseball), citing him as the organization's best power hitter.

The best guess has Rizzo landing somewhere between the extremes of Gonzalez and Clemente. Maybe Adam LaRoche? Not to get too hung up on reading tea leaves, but that's about what Oliver expects. Of course, Rizzo is much younger now than LaRoche was when the latter got his shot, but the point is that Rizzo isn't Gonzalez. Few people are.

The other option is Kyle Blanks. Recovering from Tommy John surgery and still just 24, the mammoth right-handed hitter remains very much in the picture. Blanks isn't expected to be ready by Opening Day, but if he can regain his power stroke of 2009, the battle between him and Rizzo should be a fun one for the Padres and their fans to watch in 2012.

Will Cameron Maybin finally fulfill his potential?

Cameron Maybin and the Padres hope for greater things in San Diego. (Icon/SMI)

Maybin joins the Padres, his third organization, at age 24. The same once could be said of Gonzalez. They are completely different players, but as with Gonzalez, despite a few false starts, it's too early to give up on Maybin.

The former first-round draft pick owns a career .246/.313/.380 line in about a season's worth of big-league games. He's had trouble controlling the strike zone, which wasn't his strong suit in the minors either, where he hit a much more robust .306/.393/.478 in nearly 1,800 plate appearances.

Baseball America ranked Maybin among its top 10 prospects in baseball every year from 2007 through 2009. Oliver likes his chances this season, setting the bar at .271/.339/.422, which looks suspiciously like what Mike Cameron (to whom Maybin has been compared) did for the Padres in 2007.

The flip side of Cameron is Ruben Rivera, who peaked at age 20 in the Florida State League and then flopped. Padres fans have seen young center fielders come to San Diego and fail to deliver on their promise, so if there is skepticism on their part, Maybin can thank the likes of Rivera and Ray McDavid for that.

The good news for Maybin is that he's being asked to replace the ironically named Tony Gwynn Jr. Expectations are low, certainly lower than they were when Maybin went to Florida in the Miguel Cabrera deal. Being traded for Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica presumably brings with it less pressure than being traded for Cabrera.

Maybin probably won't turn into Cameron (and hopefully won't turn into Rivera), but he might become another David DeJesus or Shane Victorino. A team that suffered through Gwynn last year could use someone like that.

Beyond Mat Latos and Clayton Richard, who is in the rotation?

Local product Aaron Harang, who fell victim to Dusty Baker's meat grinder in Cincinnati, returns home in the hope of resurrecting his career a la fellow San Diegan Kevin Correia (who parlayed his stint there into a multi-year contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates this past winter). If healthy, Harang could help fill the void left by innings eater Jon Garland. The trouble is, Harang hasn't worked more than 185 innings since 2007. His average line over the past three seasons is 6-13, 4.71 ERA (90 ERA+), which hardly looks like that of a No. 3 starter.

Harang has been particularly susceptible to the long ball during the post-effective phase of his career. The good news for him and the Padres is that PETCO Park is where fly balls go to die. It's hard to imagine a better place for the 33-year-old right-hander to try and rebuild value.

Tim Stauffer, the former first-round pick who appeared to be a bust before blossoming into a legitimate big-league pitcher upon his return from shoulder surgery in 2009, figures to break camp as a member of the rotation for the first time in his career. Stauffer is 10-12 with a 2.66 ERA (140 ERA+) over the past two seasons. Questions remain about his ability to stay healthy (he hasn't worked as many as 160 innings since 2004, his first professional season), but if he can keep those issues behind him, the 29-year-old right-hander could be one of baseball's more pleasant surprises in 2011.

After Harang and Stauffer, the battle for No. 5 is wide open. The leading candidates are holdovers Wade LeBlanc and Cory Luebke (both left-handers) and newcomer Dustin Moseley (a right-hander).

LeBlanc pitched well at times last year but faded badly down the stretch, going 4-5 with a 5.91 ERA in the second half and ultimately losing his spot in the rotation. A finesse pitcher who gets in trouble when he leaves pitches up in the zone, LeBlanc had a terrible time away from PETCO Park, posting a 6.11 ERA on the road (versus 2.71 at home) and allowing opponents to hit .302/.358/.556 against him (think 2010 Adrian Beltre).

Luebke impressed in a September audition but has relatively little experience (26 games started, 155.1 IP) above A-ball. Given the fragility of those ahead of Luebke in the queue, he should see time in the big-league rotation this year but may start out back in the minors while the Padres take more time to evaluate LeBlanc.

As for Moseley, he served under Bud Black when the latter was pitching coach of the Angels. Moseley also is the only one among the three candidates to have significant bullpen experience. In fact, 60 percent of his 80 big-league appearances have come as a reliever. If he doesn't crack the rotation, he stands a good chance to stick as a long reliever/swingman. The same cannot be said of LeBlanc or Luebke.

The guess here is that LeBlanc will win the no. 5 spot, with Moseley working out of the bullpen and Luebke starting at Triple-A Tucson. But again, with Harang and Stauffer hardly the paradigms of health, there's a good chance that whoever "loses" this battle will see plenty of action with the big club this summer.

Can the bullpen repeat its stellar 2010 performance?

The Padres owned MLB's best bullpen ERA (2.81) last year. Opponents hit .220/.284/.336 (think poor man's Mike Matheny) against the San Diego relief corps. Will this happen again?

Probably not. Here's a look at how each of the key cogs did in terms of ERA in 2010 and what Oliver projects for them in the coming season:

Pitcher        2010 2011   Dif
Heath Bell     2.10 3.43 -1.33
Mike Adams     1.76 3.17 -1.41
Luke Gregerson 3.26 3.42 -0.16
Joe Thatcher   1.29 3.84 -2.55
Chad Qualls    7.32 3.95 +3.37
Ernesto Frieri 1.57 4.91 -2.34

Qualls should be better than last year, but that's damning with faint praise. As for the others, Oliver expects serious regression out of most. Gregerson figures to hold his ground, but everyone else is due to slip by at least 1.33 runs.

The numbers for Bell, Adams, and Frieri seem overly pessimistic to me. That said, even if you disagree with Oliver's exact conclusions, it's hard to dispute the philosophy that drives them, which is that many of these pitchers achieved better results than might reasonably be expected given their track records.

It is unlikely that any of Bell, Adams, Thatcher, and Frieri will exceed last year's performance, although one or two might come close to duplicating it. Still, individually and as a group, they probably will be less effective than they were in 2010.

The Padres leaned heavily on a talented bullpen last year and just missed the playoffs. With a thin rotation, the Padres need a strong encore from their relievers to have any shot at returning to the top of the NL West. Unfortunately, regression stacks the odds against this happening.

As the Padres demonstrated up until the final day of the 2010 season, just because the odds are against you doesn't mean you can't succeed. As most other teams with long odds will attest, though, there's usually a good reason for the long odds. Don't expect the bullpen to do what it did last year and nearly push the Padres into the playoffs.

Will people keep coming to games?

The Padres in 2010 reversed a downward trend in attendance. Here's an updated version of the table that ran in this space last year:

Year Attendance  Att/G
2004  3,016,752 37,244
2005  2,869,787 35,429
2006  2,659,757 32,837
2007  2,790,074 34,445
2008  2,427,535 29,970
2009  1,919,603 23,699
2010  2,131,774 26,318

On the one hand, this is encouraging. On the other, as with Qualls' ERA, our enthusiasm is tempered by the fact that there really isn't any other direction to head at this point.

The Padres enjoyed the fourth 90-win season in their 42 years of existence. In the process, they posted the 13th-best attendance-per-game figure in club history. It ranked behind, among other forgettable seasons, 2002 (96 losses, 10th-best attendance in team history) and 2008 (99 losses, 7th-best). If you're running the Padres, you're hoping for a little better showing, but minimal turnaround is better than none.

Meanwhile, the team spent this past offseason unloading its one true superstar—one of the best players in club history and a hometown kid—which couldn't have made the marketing department real happy. But in the process, GM Jed Hoyer did something unexpected—he went out and took steps to improve his club in the short term.

Does Hoyer believe the Padres can compete now? Or is he just trying to appease a restless fan base? In many respects, it doesn't matter. Hoyer spent precious little (having precious little to spend) and did what he could. And in so doing, he seems to have engendered a trust that eluded previous ownership/management regimes.

We won't know for sure until we see actual attendance figures, but here's an encouraging sign: Despite jettisoning their lone superstar, the Padres welcomed a "record crowd of over 21,000" to their February FanFest at PETCO Park. Granted, this was a free event, but the club did sell items at a "garage sale" that generated an unwieldy queue.

People are more excited about the Padres than might be expected given the circumstances. If any lingering bitterness from the inevitable Gonzalez trade remains, fans are hiding it well. How long they continue to do so, when they are being asked to subsidize a team that doesn't spend money on players and that probably won't enjoy another unexpected run (that's why it's unexpected, right?), is an open question that only time can answer.

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It never Raines in San Diego

Geoff Young — 2011-01-19T09:28:15+00:00

Background: Drugs, collusion, and one man's desire

After violating the collective bargaining agreement toward the end of 1985 by refusing to sign other teams' free agents, baseball's owners enjoyed the cost benefits so much that they did the same thing a year later. Several players were affected by these events, including the Montreal Expos' young star left fielder, Tim Raines.

Raines reportedly expressed interest in coming to San Diego as a free agent after his contract expired at the end of the 1986 season. The Padres, after years of being the National League's doormat, reached their first World Series in 1984 but had now fallen on hard times again. The addition of Raines, who at age 26 was about to win the NL batting title, could help return the Padres to their briefly found glory.

Then, toward the end of a 74-88 season, Padres president Ballard Smith drops this bomb, as related by Marc Appleman in the August 21 edition of the Los Angeles Times:

...the Padres will never take a player that had a substance-abuse problem. Never. Tim Raines is not going to play here.

In a San Diego Tribune article penned by Bob Slocum on the same day, Raines acknowledges his interest in the Padres and expresses disappointment that he won't get the chance to play for them:

San Diego probably would have been my first choice. They are an excellent club and they could use a leadoff man to become a contender.

Raines also responds to Smith's comments:

Why in the world would he say that? He doesn't even know what kind of person I am. And he's passing judgment on me because as a 22-year-old kid, four years ago in my first full big league season, I made a mistake.

Padres reverse stance, contact Raines

In January 1987, the Padres begin their pursuit of Raines. On January 8, Padres GM Jack McKeon explains their reversal to the Tribune's Barry Bloom:

The fact that he (Raines) has a drug-testing clause already in his contract makes things more flexible. Plus, he's been a model citizen, according to the Montreal people.

This is also where coded phrases hinting at collusion begin to appear. McKeon notes:

I'm interested in signing Raines, but under a fair and reasonable climate. I don't think anybody in baseball is interested in bidding wars anymore.

On January 23, Smith is quoted in another article by Bloom:

We made him a substantial offer today. We offered him an awful lot of money. Judging by the response of his agent (Tom Reich) on the phone, I'd say he wasn't too happy with it. He told me that Raines would never sign for anything less than he was offered by Montreal.

Smith also uses more coded language:

I think the era of the $2 million-a-year player is over. I guess Raines will shop around for a while and see what else he can get.

Raines is known to be interested in signing with one of three teams: The Padres, the Dodgers, or the Braves. The Braves are not expected to make an offer.

On January 24, Tom Friend of the Times reports that the Padres have pulled their three-year, $3.3 million offer off the table. Raines and Reich are seeking a three-year, $6 million deal.

Second attempt: Gwynn gets involved

On February 13, Bloom reports that Tony Gwynn has talked to Raines via phone. Gwynn expresses optimism:

I have a gut feeling that he really wants to play in San Diego. I really think it's going to happen. It's within reach. I think something is going to shake loose in a couple of days. I spoke to him for 10 minutes. I told him if there was anything I could do, I'd do it.

The Braves, meanwhile, won't talk to Raines. Reich's proposal to the Dodgers, believed to be three years, $4.5 million, is met with the news that the club is "satisfied with Ken Landreaux."

On February 14, Friend reports that Smith has called Reich and left a message. Smith says:

The indication is that Raines is saying he realizes he might have to take less than he was offered at Montreal... Based on that, we have interest.

On February 20, Bloom reports that the Padres have made a new offer to Raines. Smith reiterates his desire to bring Raines to San Diego:

I talked to his agent (Tom Reich) last night. I told them that we were very serious about him playing here and we knew to get him we'd have to increase our offer. There's no question about it. We want Tim Raines. And I'm going to try to get him.

Meanwhile, fan enthusiasm mounts. McKeon relates an anecdote in the February 21 Tribune:

I was up at a luncheon in Vista, and something like 200 people were chanting, 'Get Raines, get Raines.' That's the same thing I've been hearing all over San Diego. I'd love to have Raines. It makes us an instant contender.

A report in the February 25 Times notes that "100 of last year's season-ticket holders are refusing to renew unless the team signs free agent Tim Raines." Smith responds:

My reaction to that is we can't make our decisions based on the fans or sportswriters. We've got to try to do what we feel is best for the club.

On the same day, in the Tribune, Smith discusses the free agent market:

What the agents have to understand is that there is a salary readjustment going on in a lot of industries. Not just this one. This one is just so much more visible. You've got to remember that all these guys were offered an awful lot of money (by their original teams) and turned it down.

Reich remains hopeful, as illustrated by his statements in the February 27 Tribune:

I expect both players [Raines and another client, free agent catcher Lance Parrish] to be in uniform sometime in the next week to 10 days. I'm hitting the road tomorrow to Arizona and Florida. And I'm not coming home until both of them are signed.

The agent also expresses growing concern about players' inability to find work:

The great freeze out is not legal. There's no more striking example of that than Raines. If he's not the best player in the league, he's got to be among the top three.

Reich continues with even stronger language:

This is not a skirmish. It's not even a conventional war. It's a revolution of the landed gentry. They're not playing by collective bargaining rules. They're playing by homemade Park Avenue rules.

Padres stop talking again

The March 2 Tribune brings San Diegans news that the Padres have ended negotiations with Reich and Raines for a second time. Smith explains:

We have no plans to make any further offers to Tim Raines. We believe that our offer of $1.1 million per year over two years is the highest outstanding offer and to bid against ourselves would make no sense.

The Times provides additional explanation from Smith:

I made an honest effort. Remember, ours is the highest offer out there. Don't lose sight of that. I don't know what the 24 other teams were thinking. You can draw your own conclusions as to why they didn't make an offer, but I think Raines wanted too much.

In hindsight, the phrase "draw your own conclusions" seems rather brazen, as does Smith's additional remark that "If I were Montreal, I wouldn't pay him what they offered him before."

With the future in limbo, Expos third baseman Tim Wallach hasn't given up on the possibility that Raines will return to Montreal. Wallach is quoted in a March 7 Tribune article:

I still hold hope that he'll come back to us. I mean, nobody else has made him much of an offer. And this guy probably is the best player in the league.

Raines, meanwhile, sounds discouraged by the lack of progress on any front. Still, despite being publicly called out for past drug use by Padres management and being twice rebuked by the team in negotiations, Raines reiterates his desire to play for them:

At this point, I may not go to the team that gives me the best offer. I'm going to go to the place that's right for me. And San Diego is right on top.

Raines is practically begging the Padres to sign him and confesses in a March 13 Tribune article that this doesn't necessarily sit well with him:

The thing that really bothers me is that if I sign for $1.1 million, does that mean I shouldn't play as hard as I did last year? Clubs are going out and offering me less money. But they're expecting me to play better. The whole thing is hard for me to digest.

And he suspects there is more to his inability to sign with a club other than the Expos than meets the eye:

I'm somewhat of an example. I'm not going to say for sure. Something isn't right. Everybody knows that.

When you've got a man on his knees, do you really need to shoot?

Nearly two weeks after the Padres end talks, Raines approaches them. According to a March 15 Times article, he offers to sign a one-year deal with the Padres worth $1.3 million that could reach $1.5 million if incentives are met—well below his original asking price.

Bloom's March 17 article indicates that the Padres have rejected Raines a third time. Reich doesn't mince words:

It's very, very clear. This is conclusive. They looked at our proposal and told us they were going to go another way.

Smith is less forthcoming

I'm not going to say anything beyond what was written in the statement. What's important is this: He is not going to sign with us. We just have to move forward.

The prepared statement to which Smith refers includes this nugget:

I took this step based on our basic philosophy, which is that the long-term success of the franchise will be based on the players we develop through our excellent farm system.

You can ask Padres fans how well that worked.

Raines, meanwhile, after mentioning during an appearance on NBC's "The Today Show" that he might sign with San Diego, is stunned. From Friend's March 17 article:

This is kind of hard to understand. I was ready. Things were sounding so good. I couldn't have been happier. To have things going so good and all of a sudden, that's it? No more? It's hard to believe. And then it was for no reason. They never really gave a reason.

Locals are not amused

Reaction in San Diego is predictable. On March 17, Tribune columnist Nick Canepa takes Padres ownership to task:

There's just something nagging at me that won't go away, and it says the Kroc family hasn't wanted this fellow from the very beginning. Tim Raines, who has had a drug problem, is not Joan Kroc's kind of guy. Steve Garvey is.

The next day, Tribune columnist Tom Cushman fires a barb of his own at Kroc:

Unlike some teams set in the bedrock of huge corporations, the Padres are owned by the Kroc family, not by the family business (McDonald's). They therefore are subject to the whims of a chief executive (Joan Kroc) dealing from a personal fortune, not the bottom-line mentality of corporate accountants.

He also touches on the allegations of collusion:

I have no real knowledge of any blueprint for restoring fiscal control of baseball to the owners, but somebody is orchestrating a symphonic response to free agency by a group that, until recently, reminded one of the Spike Jones orchestra.

McKeon, meanwhile, must deal with assembling his team and notes that with Raines out of the picture, the Padres "want to look at Shane Mack and Shawn Abner a little more." Of course, a lifetime of staring at Abner won't turn him into one-hundredth the player Raines is on his worst day.

Bloom offers this tidbit in his March 18 article:

There is also a story going around that when Raines approached the Padres for Round Three of the talks, Smith had all but agreed to a two-year $2.6 million deal, but reneged at the last minute. The reason? Pressure from within baseball.

Bloom again raises the issue of collusion on March 24:

It's speculated that a deal was made at the Feb. 25 owners meeting in Dallas that would force free agents like Raines, Rich Gedman, Ron Guidry, Bob Horner and Bob Boone back to their original clubs.

Short- and long-term implications

Amidst various other dramas—mostly centering around Kroc's attempted sale of the club that fell through toward the end of May because the prospective buyer, Seattle Mariners owner George Argyros, apparently had alienated several of baseball's biggest power brokers (Uebberoth, Bart Giammati, Peter O'Malley)—the Padres find themselves with a dismal 12-39 record headed into June. In a June 4 article by Bloom, Gwynn laments missing out on Raines:

Those things always seem to have a way of coming back to haunt you. Something just tells me that this year, he's going to wear us out. He'll get something like 25 hits against us in 12 games. It wouldn't surprise me a bit because that's the way things seem to work out. What can you say? He's just a great player.

For the record, Gwynn was a better hitter than prognosticator. The Padres were one of the few teams Raines didn't destroy in 1987, as he hit just .182/.308/.250 against them in 52 plate appearances.

Raines hit .330/.429/.526 overall. McKeon's young hopefuls? Abner played 16 games, while Mack hit .239/.299/.361 in 267 plate appearances. Smith's excellent farm system? Outside of Roberto Alomar, the Padres haven't developed anyone as good as Raines since they failed to sign him in '87.

The remorse isn't limited to Padres players. In that same June 4 article, Raines ponders the possibilities:

I've known Tony now for three or four years and we've had a pretty good friendship. Just the chance for us to play together -- two up-and-coming players both on the same side -- would've have been attractive for both of us. It just happens that things didn't work out for me or him.

With the passable Carmelo Martinez in left field and the execrable Stan Jefferson in center field, the Padres finish the season 65-97. This represents a nine-game drop from 1986 and the club's worst showing in a non-strike-shortened season since 1974, when the Padres went 60-102 and were still shaking the expansion team tag. So much for that fleeting glimpse of respectability in 1984.

In September 1988, the owners are found guilty of colluding against free agents. The Padres, based on their treatment of Raines, are cited as major players. From Bloom's September 6 article:

The Padres evidently were part of the conspiracy which sent Tim Raines back to Montreal in 1986-87. According to the 81-page report issued in favor of the players last week by arbitrator George Nicolau in the Collusion II case, the league colluded against a number of free agents, including Raines.

Raines tried to undersell his services to the Padres, who cut off talks after protracted negotiations. Raines sat out the spring and, when he realized he would be frozen out of the market, re-signed with Montreal and joined the club on May 1.

Baseball fans in San Diego are left to wonder what might have been.

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More inverted records

Geoff Young — 2011-01-05T09:00:15+00:00

A while back, I reintroduced an old Bill James invention that translates a hitter's line into a pitching line. It's frivolous fun that has few, if any practical applications, but it helps pass the time between baseball seasons.

In response to the original article, readers offered many suggestions for further work. One suggestion was to focus on "average" players. That's sort of the premise here, although we will wander around a bit because... well, why not.

Preliminaries

To create our sample, I first identified all batting title qualifiers in 2010 (n = 151). After running the translations, I then identified all pitchers who worked at least 106 innings (n = 139) and added them to the pool, giving us a total of 290 players. I chose 106 innings as the threshold because that represents the lowest total among translated batting lines (Chase Utley's 2010 comes out to 106.1 IP) and it gives a number fairly similar to the number of hitters.

I then found the average translated pitching line of 151 batters:

                  IP   H  R ER HR BB  SO  ERA HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Sample average 140.0 149 83 75 18 54 103 4.81 1.16 3.48 6.65

As fate would have it, there are two hitters and a pitcher that matched this ERA in 2010. Here is the average line along with the lines of those players:

                  IP   H  R ER HR BB  SO  ERA HR/9 BB/9  SO/9
Sample average 140.0 149 83 75 18 54 103 4.81 1.16 3.48  6.65
Jason Hammel   177.2 201 97 95 18 47 141 4.81 0.91 2.38  7.14
Adam LaRoche   142.1 146 84 76 25 48 172 4.81 1.58 3.04 10.88
Raul Ibanez    144.0 154 86 77 16 68 108 4.81 1.00 4.25  6.75

Note that this is higher than the 2010 average MLB ERA (4.08), which makes sense since we are drawing only from the hitters who qualified for the batting title (and who presumably are better than those who didn't).

For grins, I also divided our sample of 151 hitters into 10 groups according to OPS+ (plus Cesar Izturis, who was so bad he gets his own group). Group A consisted of players in the top 10% (1-15), Group B the next 10% (16-31), and so on. Here are the translated lines for the "leader" of each group:

Grp Rnk OPS+ Player               IP   H   R  ER HR BB  SO  ERA HR/9 BB/9  SO/9
A     1 179  Miguel Cabrera    132.0 180 141 127 38 89  95 8.66 2.59 6.07  6.48
B    16 141  Adrian Beltre     144.1 189 110  99 28 40  82 6.17 1.75 2.49  5.11
C    31 130  Nick Swisher      141.0 163 103  93 29 58 139 5.94 1.85 3.70  8.87
D    46 122  Vladimir Guerrero 148.1 178  95  86 29 35  60 5.22 1.76 2.12  3.64
E    61 113  Stephen Drew      141.0 157  94  85 15 62 108 5.43 0.96 3.96  6.89
F    76 106  Adam LaRoche      142.1 146  84  76 25 48 172 4.81 1.58 3.04 10.88
G    91 102  Carlos Pena       132.0  95  72  65 28 87 158 4.43 1.91 5.93 10.77
H   106  95  Ben Zobrist       148.0 129  77  69 10 92 107 4.20 0.61 5.59  6.51
I   121  90  Derek Jeter       171.2 179  83  75 10 63 106 3.93 0.52 3.30  5.56
J   136  83  A.J. Pierzynski   125.0 128  50  45  9 15  39 3.24 0.65 1.08  2.81
Izt 151  50  Cesar Izturis     129.2 109  35  32  1 25  53 2.22 0.07 1.74  3.68

First off, mad props to the Orioles for letting Izturis qualify for the batting title. The gap between him and the second worst OPS+ among qualifiers (Alicides Escobar, 67) is greater than that between no. 59 (Mike Napoli, 113) and no. 104 (Starlin Castro, 97). Not every team would have the guts to stick a bat that bad out there every day, so way to go.

Cabrera's line doesn't compare with that of any pitcher in our sample, for the obvious reason that nobody (not even the Orioles) would let a guy work 106 innings while pitching like that. Izturis, on the other hand, matches up with the game's elite pitchers:

                   IP   H  R ER HR BB  SO  ERA HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Cesar Izturis   129.2 109 35 32  1 25  53 2.22 0.07 1.74 3.68
Felix Hernandez 249.2 194 80 63 17 70 232 2.27 0.61 2.52 8.36
Josh Johnson    183.2 155 51 47  7 48 186 2.30 0.34 2.35 9.11
Clay Buchholz   173.2 142 55 45  9 67 120 2.33 0.47 3.47 6.22

Close matches

The next thing I did was try to find roughly equivalent lines among hitters and pitchers. I approached this a number of different ways

My first attempt involved matching ERAs. There were many perfect matches, but here are the extremes. First the low end:

                    IP   H  R ER HR BB  SO  ERA HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Chone Figgins    167.2 156 67 60  1 74 114 3.22 0.05 3.97 6.12
Alberto Callaspo 148.1 149 59 53 10 31  42 3.22 0.61 1.88 2.55
Chris Carpenter  235.0 214 99 84 21 63 179 3.22 0.80 2.41 6.86

And then the high end:

                IP   H   R  ER HR BB  SO  ERA HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Nick Swisher 141.0 163 103  93 29 58 139 5.94 1.85 3.70 8.87
Scott Kazmir 150.0 158 103  99 25 79  93 5.94 1.50 4.74 5.58

Next I tried home runs. This ranged from several hitters and Brett Anderson at 6 to Joey Votto and Rodrigo Lopez at 37. Here is my favorite:

                   IP   H  R ER HR BB  SO  ERA HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Michael Cuddyer 159.0 165 80 72 14 58  93 4.08 0.79 3.28 5.26
Gavin Floyd     187.1 199 92 85 14 58 151 4.08 0.67 2.79 7.25

This one is cool because Cuddyer and Floyd match not only in homers but also in ERA and walks. Cuddyer and Floyd also are your Mr. Average for 2010, both checking in with an ERA that matches MLB average.

Others of note are these three, who had the same number of homers in nearly the same number of innings:

                      IP   H  R ER HR BB  SO  ERA HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Jeff Francoeur     121.1 113 53 48 13 30  81 3.56 0.96 2.23 6.01
Hisanori Takahashi 122.0 116 51 49 13 43 114 3.61 0.96 3.17 8.41

Brandon Phillips   162.1 172 86 77 18 46  83 4.27 1.00 2.55 4.60
Rick Porcello      162.2 188 96 89 18 38  84 4.92 1.00 2.10 4.65

Mike Young         168.0 186 93 84 21 50 115 4.50 1.13 2.68 6.16
Chris Narveson     167.2 172 96 93 21 59 137 4.99 1.13 3.17 7.35

I also looked at perfect BB/9 matches. Low end:

                   IP   H  R ER HR BB  SO  ERA HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Roy Halladay    250.2 231 74 68 24 30 219 2.44 0.86 1.08 7.86
A.J. Pierzynski 125.0 128 50 45  9 15  39 3.24 0.65 1.08 2.81

And high end:

                IP   H   R ER HR BB SO  ERA HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Luke Scott   112.0 127  91 82 27 59 98 6.59 2.17 4.74 7.88
Scott Kazmir 150.0 158 103 99 25 79 93 5.94 1.50 4.74 5.58

How about SO/9? Sure, why not; again, from low to high:

                   IP   H  R   ER HR BB  SO  ERA HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Carl Pavano     221.0 227  95  92 24 37 117 3.75 0.98 1.51 4.76
Shane Victorino 149.1 152  88  79 18 53  79 4.76 1.08 3.19 4.76

Bud Norris      153.2 151  94  84 18 77 158 4.92 1.05 4.51 9.25
Dan Uggla       145.0 169 115 104 33 78 149 6.46 2.05 4.84 9.25

A different approach

I eventually came up with a poor-man's variant on similarity scores. Lacking the resources to do exactly what I wanted, I lined up the 151 batters and 139 pitchers side by side, in ascending order of ERA. This gave 139 matched pairs, from Izturis (2.22 ERA) and Hernandez (2.27) to Robinson Cano (6.63 ERA) and Ryan Rowland-Smith (6.75).

Ideally, I would have evaluated each player against all other players, but instead I compared values from one row for each matched pair. I looked at the rate statistics—ERA, HR/9, BB/9, and SO/9—and calculated the difference between each. Then I summed all four values in a couple of different ways (it's a bit messy but it yields decent results; details can be found in References and Resources, for those interested in learning more and/or improving the method). I ran numbers for all 139 matched pairs and then sorted by lowest total differential. Here are the best matches:

                      IP   H   R  ER HR BB  SO  ERA HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Shane Victorino    149.1 152  88  79 18 53  79 4.76 1.08 3.19 4.76
Jake Westbrook     202.2 203  99  95 20 68 128 4.22 0.89 3.02 5.68

Starlin Castro     118.0 139  62  56  3 29  71 4.27 0.23 2.21 5.42
Jeremy Guthrie     209.1 193  93  89 25 50 119 3.83 1.07 2.15 5.12

Jhonny Peralta     145.0 137  69  62 15 53 103 3.85 0.93 3.29 6.39
Jon Garland        200.0 176  86  77 20 87 136 3.46 0.90 3.92 6.12

Ryan Braun         151.1 188 113 102 25 56 105 6.07 1.49 3.33 6.24
A.J. Burnett       186.2 204 118 109 25 78 145 5.26 1.21 3.76 6.99

Gaby Sanchez       146.1 156  88  79 19 57 101 4.86 1.17 3.51 6.21
Wade LeBlanc       146.0 157  69  69 24 51 110 4.25 1.48 3.14 6.78

Robinson Cano      150.2 200 123 111 29 57  77 6.63 1.73 3.40 4.60
Ryan Rowland-Smith 109.1 141  94  82 25 44  49 6.75 2.06 3.62 4.03

Alex Gonzalez      157.0 149  74  67 23 31 118 3.84 1.32 1.78 6.76
Hiroki Kuroda      196.1 180  87  74 15 48 159 3.39 0.69 2.20 7.29

Alexis Rios        148.2 161  80  72 21 38  93 4.36 1.27 2.30 5.63
Derek Lowe         193.2 204  88  86 18 61 136 4.00 0.84 2.83 6.32

Nyjer Morgan       139.0 129  55  50  0 40  88 3.24 0.00 2.59 5.70
R.A. Dickey        174.1 165  62  55 13 42 104 2.84 0.67 2.17 5.37

Casey McGehee      154.1 174  93  84 23 50 102 4.90 1.34 2.92 5.95
Jeff Niemann       174.1 159  86  85 25 61 131 4.39 1.29 3.15 6.76

Franklin Gutierrez 150.2 139  66  59 12 50 137 3.52 0.72 2.99 8.18
Cole Hamels        208.2 185  74  71 26 61 211 3.06 1.12 2.63 9.10

Victor Martinez    122.0 149  82  74 20 40  52 5.46 1.48 2.95 3.84
John Lannan        143.1 175  82  74 14 49  71 4.65 0.88 3.08 4.46

Brennan Boesch     118.0 119  64  58 14 40  99 4.42 1.07 3.05 7.55
Ross Ohlendorf     108.1 106  54  49 12 44  79 4.07 1.00 3.66 6.56

Jeff Francoeur     121.1 113  53  48 13 30  81 3.56 0.96 2.23 6.01
Matt Cain          223.1 181  84  78 22 61 177 3.14 0.89 2.46 7.13

Again, it's not perfect (and I am sure there are better ways to achieve the intended goal), but this gives us some idea of players with similarly shaped lines. Need a guy who serves up homers? Try Cano or Rowland-Smith. How about a control freak? You want Gonzalez or Kuroda. Maybe you're more of a strikeout guy: Gutierrez or Hamels. And on it goes, limited only by your imagination. Have fun!

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Epic pitchers duels, epilogue

Geoff Young — 2010-12-22T09:45:15+00:00

Following what was supposed to be the final installment of our four-part series, a request came in to examine some of the best pitchers duels of the past three decades. After all, our series concludes in 1972, which may be fuzzy (or worse) in the minds of many readers. Besides, who am I to turn down a request, especially one as fun as this?

When all else fails, lower your standards

For the current installment, we must tweak our parameters. There aren't any games in which both starters achieve Game Scores of 95 or higher (our criterion for identifying epic pitchers duels in previous installments). Part of the problem is that pitchers don't work insanely deep (11 innings or more) into games these days:

Decade 11+ IP
1920s  505
1930s  397
1940s  456
1950s  267
1960s  196
1970s  209
1980s   48*
1990s    2
2000s    0

* Eight of these (16.7 percent came courtesy of Billy Martin's 1980 A's—five by Mike Norris, and one each by Matt Keough, Rick Langford, and Steve McCatty. All four of those pitchers worked a 14-inning game that year. This is only tangentially related to the topic at hand, but damn...

Anyway, the point is, without working at least 11 innings, it's hard to rack up monster Game Scores. The decline in Game Scores of 95 or higher relative to those of 90 or higher over the decades mirrors the decline in really long starts:

Decade  90+ 95+  Pct
1920s   64  21  .328
1930s   64  21  .328
1940s  104  26  .250
1950s  107  27  .252
1960s  278  67  .241
1970s  199  41  .206
1980s  140  17  .163
1990s  170  34  .200
2000s  144  26  .181

Those pre-1960s totals may seem low, but the fact that fewer starts were being made back then (compare, e.g., 2,472 major league games in 1927 to 4,862 in 2007) probably accounts for much of the discrepancy. The first column is self-explanatory. The second column (90+) represents the number of games in which a pitcher achieved a Game Score of 90 or higher. The third does the same, but for a Game Score of 95 or higher.

The rightmost column is where the action is. It represents the percentage of 90+ Game Score starts that were also 95+ Game Score starts. To use horribly subjective terminology, it helps us separate "really good" starts from "really, really good" starts. Note the roughly declining trend over the decades. This seems to jibe well with the innings data. It's hard to get a Game Score of 90 while working fewer than 11 innings, but it's even harder to get a Game Score of 95 while doing the same:

        Game Score 90+  Game Score 95+
Decade  Tot  <11   Pct  Tot  <11   Pct
1920s    64   22  .344   21    3  .143
1930s    64   25  .391   21    4  .190
1940s   104   44  .423   26    2  .077
1950s   107   58  .542   27    3  .111
1960s   278  207  .745   67   33  .493
1970s   199  150  .754   41   17  .415
1980s   140  134  .957   17   13  .765
1990s   170  170 1.000   34   34 1.000
2000s   144  144 1.000   26   26 1.000
Total  1270  954  .751  280  135  .482

That's a long way to go to demonstrate a point, but it's important to understand why we're tweaking parameters before actually doing so. Plus, it's just neat to see how pitching has evolved over the years.

So, what parameters are we using? To get a reasonable number of games, we'll go with a minimum Game Score of 85. This gives us six games in the '80s, five in the '90s, and three in the current millennium. Because these aren't "epic" in the sense that duels in the past were, we'll focus on the single "best" duel from each decade, giving honorable mentions to the rest.

The word "best" is in quotes because this is a subjective matter. For our purposes, "best" is defined as a summation of the two Game Scores in question. With that perhaps overly lengthy introduction out of the way, let's look at some games.

Best pitchers duel of the 1980s

July 22, 1986: Montreal Expos (0) at Houston Astros (1), 10 innings

Box score

Combined Game Score: 181

               IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Floyd Youmans 9.0 3 1  1  1  0  8  85
Nolan Ryan    9.1 1 0  0  0  4 14  96

Youmans, a high school teammate of Dwight Gooden, was 22 years old at the time and a highly regarded young pitcher. Originally selected by the New York Mets in the second round of the 1982 June draft (three picks after David Wells), Youmans came to Montreal as part of the package for Gary Carter.

Despite occasional struggles with command, the hard-throwing right hander enjoyed success at an early age. His list of similar pitchers through age 22 includes the likes of Mat Latos and Carlos Zambrano. In The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1987, Youmans is identified as the 17th best starting pitcher in the National League (behind Bill Gullickson and ahead of Tom Browning). The comments read, in part:

...superb pitcher, but the end of his motion is not pretty. It looks to me like he'll hurt either his elbow or his back within two or three years.

James had the right idea, but the wrong body part. This is from The Scouting Report: 1990:

...persistent tendinitis in Floyd's right shoulder has made his fastball drop alarmingly in velocity. Youmans finally needed surgery on the shoulder.

Youmans was out of affiliated baseball (he pitched briefly in Independent leagues in 1995 and again in 2003) by 1989, at the ripe old age of 25.

Ryan was 39 years old when he threw this gem. He faced some good hitters, too (you may be familiar with Andre Dawson and Tim Raines). The only hit Ryan allowed came when catcher Mike Fitzgerald (another part of the Carter trade) doubled with one out in the fifth inning.

There weren't any real scoring opportunities for either team. Mitch Webster reached second base for the Expos with one out in the fourth inning, but Ryan struck out Dawson and got Tim Wallach to fly out to right field. The Astros had the same situation in the home half, but Youmans retired Davis and Kevin Bass to end the threat.

Montreal put a man in scoring position in the fifth (Fitzgerald's double) and again in the 10th. In the latter, Ryan walked two batters; manager Hal Lanier brought in the late Dave Smith, who put out the fire. Smith picked up the win when Glenn Davis led off the home half with a home run.

A quick perusal of The New York Times reveals no further details of the contest. It does, however, tell us that Greg Lemond led the Tour de France after 18 legs and that, 81 years earlier to the day, Philadelphia A's right-hander Weldon Henley no-hit the St. Louis Browns. Useless information in the current context, but interesting nonetheless...

Youmans would exact his revenge on Ryan and the Astros nearly a year later. The only two times these pitchers faced each other brought out the best in both. Youmans limited Houston to a single by Bass leading off the eighth, while Ryan gave up a whopping four hits in losing another 1-0 decision (this was the season in which Ryan finished with an 8-16 record despite leading the NL in ERA and strikeouts).

Honorable mentions, in descending order of combined Game Score

Oct, 1, 1982: New York Mets (1) at Philadelphia Phillies (0), 10 innings

Box score

Combined Game Score: 180

              IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Terry Leach 10.0 1 0  0  0  6  7  91
John Denny   9.0 1 0  0  0  3  7  89

Leach made 376 big-league appearances. Of those, 21 were starts. This was the second of those 21 starts. Despite not making his debut until age 27, Leach quietly had a nice little career. Think Scott Linebrink. As for Denny, the journeyman right hander didn't do much in 1982, but he surprised everyone by winning the NL Cy Young Award a year later.

The New York Times account of this game also contains an amusing anecdote:

The umpires arrived without their work uniforms, which had been sent someplace else by their airline, so they presided in makeshift outfits. Ed Montague called balls and strikes in a Phillies uniform, and his three colleagues wore slacks and sweaters.

If the sight of a man wearing a Phillies uniform crouched behind the plate gave Leach pause, he certainly didn't let it show.

Aug. 26, 1987: Cleveland Indians (0) at Milwaukee Brewers (1), 10 innings

Box score

Combined Game Score: 180

                IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
John Farrell   9.0 3 0  0  0  2  7  86
Teddy Higuera 10.0 3 0  0  0  2 10  94

Doug Jones took over for Farrell to start the 10th inning. He plunked the first batter he faced, Rob Deer (who had struck out in each of his first three trips to the plate). Mike Felder ran for Deer, advanced to second on a ground ball, and scored on a single by pinch-hitter Rick Manning. That's hardly a proper end to a stellar pitchers duel, but there it is.

James' comment on Higuera in The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1988 is revealing:

Higuera I suspect is one of the half-dozen pitchers in our generation who can work 8 to 10 innings a start without being destroyed by it... Managers establish as a normal workload the workload that Jack Morris and Teddy Higuera are capable of handling, but which destroys most pitchers in a year or two.

First, it ties in nicely with Higuera's performance in this game. Second, such handling (or something) apparently destroyed Higuera in a year or two anyway.

Sept. 6, 1985: New York Mets (2) at Los Angeles Dodgers (0), 13 innings

Box score

Combined Game Score: 174

                      IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Dwight Gooden        9.0 5 0  0  0  0 10  87
Fernando Valenzuela 11.0 6 0  0  0  3  5  87

Speaking of Youmans' high school teammate, here's a fun one that pitted two men who hurled eight shutouts at age 20. Gooden was in the midst of his sensational season, the best ever by a pitcher that age, while Valenzuela had accomplished the feat four years earlier.

The game's only runs came when Darryl Strawberry knocked a two-run double against Tom Niedenfuer to give the Mets the lead and, ultimately, the win. The Dodgers had a chance in their half of the 13th, but Bill Madlock popped out to first base against Jesse Orosco with the bases loaded to end the contest. Leach, a star in the previously mentioned 1982 Mets-Phillies game, worked in relief in this one.

Sept. 28, 1988: Los Angeles Dodgers (1) at San Diego Padres (2), 16 innings

Box score

Combined Game Score: 174

                 IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Orel Hershiser 10.0 4 0  0  0  1  3  86
Andy Hawkins   10.0 4 0  0  0  2  6  88

This is the start that pushed Hershiser past Don Drysdale for longest scoreless inning streak (59) in MLB history. With two on and two out in the 10th, Hershiser got Keith Moreland to fly out to right field and entered the record books. The Padres won when backup catcher Mark Parent, batting for Marvell Wynne, greeted incoming reliever Ricky Horton with a walkoff two-run homer to left.

April 10, 1980: New York Yankees (0) at Texas Rangers (1), 12 innings

Box score

Combined Game Score: 173

             IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Ron Guidry  9.0 2 0  0  0  0  4  87
Jon Matlack 9.0 3 0  0  0  0  5  86

Texas scored the lone run with one out in the 12th. With Mickey Rivers on third base, Yankees skipper Dick Howser had Tom Underwood intentionally walk Al Oliver and Buddy Bell to get to Richie Zisk. Howser then summoned Rich Gossage from the bullpen. Gossage uncorked a wild pitch, bringing home Rivers. This was Opening Day for both clubs. Welcome to the '80s.

Best pitchers duel of the 1990s

Aug. 1, 1990: Seattle Mariners (0) at Oakland Athletics (1), 11 innings

Box score

Combined Game Score: 188

               IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Erik Hanson  10.0 2 0  0  0  0 11  99
Dave Stewart 11.0 5 0  0  0  3  5  89

Stewart is the last big-league pitcher to work 11 innings in a game. He and Hanson were efficient, as the game took just two hours and 38 minutes.

Hanson is sort of forgotten these days, but once upon a time, he ranked among the more promising young pitchers in baseball. After going 9-5 for the Mariners as a 24-year-old, The Scouting Report: 1990 said of Hanson that he "appears to have the stuff to eventually become the ace of any staff." He followed that up with an 18-9, 3.24 ERA (122 ERA+) campaign during which he hurled this gem.

Young pitchers are a funny lot, though, and although Jim Bunning appears among Hanson's top 10 most similar pitchers through age 25 at Baseball-Reference, so also does Mark Fidrych. Still, Hanson dominated a very good A's team that would win 103 games and steamroller Boston in the ALCS before being shocked by Cincinnati in the World Series.

Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts against Hanson in this one; Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire did no better. If not for a fourth-inning wild pitch, Oakland would not have gotten a runner past first base against the lanky right hander out of Wake Forest.

Stewart was less dominant but equally effective. He gave up a double to Ken Griffey Jr. with two out in the first and again with one out in the 11th. Griffey never reached third base.

The A's finally broke through against Seattle closer Mike Schooler. With one out in the 11th, Oakland knocked three straight singles. The last, by Doug Jennings, came on a 1-2 pitch and drove home Lance Blankenship, who had come in to run for catcher Terry Steinbach.

Stewart was enjoying what would be the last of his four straight 20-win seasons (outside of that stretch, he never won more than 12 games in a season). He retired in 1995 with a career line of 168-129 and 3.95 ERA (100 ERA+). And in the random, but true department, nearly 77 percent of Stewart's victories came after he'd turned 30.

Honorable mentions, in descending order of combined Game Score

July 15, 1994: San Diego Padres (2) at New York Mets (1), 14 innings

Box score

Combined Game Score: 184

                  IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Andy Benes       8.0 2 0  0  0  1 14  91
Bret Saberhagen 10.0 5 0  0  0  0 11  93

Jeff Tabaka and Mike Maddux were the pitchers of record, a guy named Pedro Martinez (not the one you're thinking of; we'll get to him in a moment) worked two innings for San Diego, and Tim Mauser earned the first of his two career saves. Benes led the NL in strikeouts in '94. Impressively, this was only his second best performance against the Mets that month. Two weeks earlier, Benes had spun a one-hitter with 13 strikeouts, for a career-best Game Score of 97.

Saberhagen was a brilliant pitcher when healthy, which wasn't often. He had two Cy Young Awards (and more than half of his career victories) by age 25. The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1986 ranks his age 21 season among the best ever, along with Bob Feller, Vida Blue and Babe Ruth. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract ranks Saberhagen as the No. 79 pitcher of all time. In some respects, he is the opposite of Dave Stewart, recording nearly 72 percent of his wins before age 30.

The game remained scoreless through 13 innings. Tony Gwynn and Phil Plantier hit back-to-back homers in the 14th. David Segui doubled home pinch-hitter Luis Rivera in the bottom half, but Tabaka retired Jeff Kent and Rico Brogna to end the game.

June 25, 1999: St. Louis Cardinals (1) at Arizona Diamondbacks (0)

Box score

Combined Game Score: 178

               IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Jose Jimenez  9.0 0 0  0  0  2  8  93
Randy Johnson 9.0 5 1  1  0  2 14  85

Jimenez was in the midst of a miserable season in which he went 5-14 with a 5.85 ERA (79 ERA+). In this one, though, he outpitched a sure-fire Hall of Famer and shut down a potent Arizona lineup led by Luis Gonzalez (.336/.403/.549, 137 OPS+), Jay Bell (.289/.374/.557, 131 OPS+), Matt Williams (.303/.344/.536, 118 OPS+) and Steve Finley (.264/.336/.525, 113 OPS+).

Jimenez also benefited from two terrific defensive plays by right fielder Eric Davis, who robbed Andy Fox in the sixth and David Dellucci in the ninth. The only run came with two out in the ninth, when Thomas Howard singled home Darren Bragg.

For Johnson, although this represented a fine outing for him, it merely marked one of 50 big-league starts in which he achieved a Game Score of 85 or higher. Contrast that with Jimenez, who had 38 big-league starts... full stop. Jimenez later enjoyed some success as a reliever, saving 110 games over parts of seven seasons.

Colorado Rockies (1) at San Diego Padres (0), 11 innings

Box score

Combined Game Score: 178

              IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Darryl Kile 10.0 3 0  0  0  2  7  91
Kevin Brown  9.0 4 0  0  0  0  8  87

Kile led the NL in losses in '98, while Brown finished third in Cy Young Award voting, but on this Sunday afternoon in San Diego, their roles were reversed and Kile prevailed. The game's lone run came when Darryl Hamilton singled home Larry Walker, who had doubled with one out against left-hander Randy Myers.

The Padres had acquired Myers from Toronto a few weeks earlier for a 24-year-old catcher in High-A named Brian Loyd. It's not so much that the Blue Jays wanted Loyd as they wanted to rid themselves of Myers' burdensome contract. Padres GM Kevin Towers, in a rare bad trade, made the move to block Atlanta (whom he believed had interest in Myers) from claiming him on waivers.

A secondary reason for the trade was that Myers presumably would be tough on left-handed hitters. The careful reader will note, however, that both Hamilton and Walker batted from the left side. The Padres ended up paying Myers $13.58 million to pitch 17.1 innings, which comes out to a little more than $783,000 per inning—not the return on investment Towers had in mind.

July 27, 1990: Chicago Cubs (2) at Montreal Expos (0), 10 innings

Box score

Combined Game Score: 175

              IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Greg Maddux  9.0 2 0  0  0  1  5  87
Mark Gardner 9.0 4 0  0  0  1 10  88

One of the joys of this series has been watching David go up against Goliath and, if not outright beating him, then giving him one heckuva fight. Here is yet another example.

Maddux needs no introduction, but you may have forgotten Gardner, who was the Brett Tomko of his era. Gardner never won more than 13 games in a season or finished with an ERA+ of better than 107 (that would be '90, his rookie campaign). During his 13-year career, Gardner won 99 games and had an ERA+ of 88. He could pitch in a variety of roles and soak up innings—useful enough for someone who didn't reach the big leagues until he was 27.

On this Friday evening in Montreal, Gardner matched Maddux pitch for pitch. And he did it while subduing future Hall of Famers Ryne Sandberg and Andre Dawson, among others. The Cubs won in the 10th on the strength of a Shawon Dunston walk (!) and three straight singles by Gary Varsho, Dave Clark, and Sandberg.

Best pitchers duel of the 2000s

July 1, 2010: Cincinnati Reds (0) at Philadelphia Phillies (1), 11 innings

Box score

Combined Game Score: 178

              IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Travis Wood  9.0 1 0  0  0  0  8  93
Roy Halladay 9.0 5 0  0  0  1  9  85

The diminutive rookie left hander out of Little Rock, Ark., outpitched the man who would win the NL Cy Young Award. The Phillies prevailed when Jimmy Rollins singled to right against reliever Logan Ondrusek, driving home Carlos Ruiz for the game's only run. More could be said about this game, but it's still fresh in our minds so we'll leave it at that.

Honorable mentions, in descending order of combined Game Score

May 6, 2000: Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1) at Boston Red Sox (0)

Box score

Combined Game Score: 176

                IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Steve Trachsel 9.0 3 0  0  0  3 11  89
Pedro Martinez 9.0 6 1  1  0  1 17  87

Youmans vs Ryan, Jimenez vs Johnson, Gardner vs Maddux, Trachsel vs Martinez... trite as it may seem, this is why they play the games. With two out in the eighth, Greg Vaughn singled home Dave Martinez. Ballgame.

Trachsel worked his way into and out of a few jams. The Red Sox put runners at first and second in the second inning, but Trachsel retired the light-hitting Manny Alexander to escape unharmed. They put runners at the corners an inning later, but this time the decidedly more dangerous Carl Everett made out. They did the same in the sixth, with Mike Stanley and Jason Varitek failing to deliver.

Both pitchers struck out the side in the first inning. Martinez did it again in the second. Trachsel's 11 strikeouts represented a career high (which he would tie a year later) and an impressive total for someone who posted a 5.7 K/9 over parts of 16 big-league seasons.

May 28, 2002: Arizona Diamondbacks (0) at San Francisco Giants (1), 10 innings

Box score

Combined Game Score: 173

                IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Miguel Batista 9.0 1 0  0  0  1  3  87
Jason Schmidt  9.0 3 0  0  0  1  6  86

Poet, pitcher, friend of Miss Iowa... Batista does it all. And in this game, he neutralized a powerful Giants team (they would go on to represent the NL in the World Series) led by Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent.

Schmidt, meanwhile, was starting to find himself as a pitcher after several seasons of teasing. He took a step forward in 2002 before blossoming a year later.

Unlike Batista, who made it through the contest untested, Schmidt faced a tough situation in the seventh. He loaded the bases with one out, but got Mark Grace to fly out to shallow center field and fanned Rod Barajas to quell the threat.

San Francisco won in the bottom of the 10th. With lefty Mike Myers now on the hill, Bonds drew a leadoff walk. Right-hander Bret Prinz replaced Myers and gave up singles to Kent (on an 0-2 pitch) and Benito Santiago to end the contest.

Best pitchers duels by decade, 1920-2010

For the sake of completeness, and because this article isn't long enough already, here are the top pitching duels of each decade as determined by combined Game Score (CGS):

Decade     Date Pitchers (Game Score)                    CGS
1920s  05/01/20 Leon Cadore (140), Joe Oeschger (153)    296
1930s  07/02/33 Tex Carleton (106), Carl Hubbell (132)   238
1940s  07/21/45 Les Mueller (112), Russ Christopher (99) 211
1950s  08/13/54 Al Aber (101), Jack Harshman (109)       210
1960s  10/02/65 Chris Short (114), Rob Gardner (112)     226
1970s  09/24/71 Ken Forsch (98), Clay Kirby (109)        217
1980s  07/22/86 Floyd Youmans (85), Nolan Ryan (96)      181
1990s  08/01/90 Erik Hanson (99), Dave Stewart (89)      188
2000s  07/01/10 Travis Wood (93), Roy Halladay (85)      178

Never say never, but that duel between Cadore and Oeschger won't be surpassed. It's also possible that we've witnessed our last 200 combined Game Score performance; if you were one of the 6,339 in attendance at San Diego Stadium on Sept. 24, 1971, congratulations.

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Epic pitchers duels, Part 4

Geoff Young — 2010-12-15T08:49:15+00:00

In Part 1 of this series, we identified parameters for defining a great pitchers duel (the two starters both must have compiled Game Scores of 95 or higher) and examined games that met our criteria in the 1920s and 1930s. Part 2 covered the 1940s, while Part 3 covered the 1950s and 1960s. This, our final installment, looks back at the 1970s.

July 9, 1971: California Angels (0) at Oakland Athletics (1), 20 innings

Box score

            IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Rudy May  12.0 3 0  0  0  6 13 103
Vida Blue 11.0 7 0  0  0  0 17 100

May, a 26-year-old who attended high school in Oakland, pitched the game of his life in front of the hometown fans. He did it against a darned good team, too. The A's would win 101 games before getting trounced by Baltimore in the ALCS (and then winning the next three World Series).

The A's featured veterans Sal Bando, Mike Epstein, Reggie Jackson and Rick Monday, as well as a young Gene Tenace. In other words, May wasn't beating up on a bunch of nobodies.

May had originally been signed as an amateur free agent by the Minnesota Twins. After making minor-league stops in the White Sox and Phillies organizations, he came to the Angels in a December 1964 trade for fellow southpaw Bo Belinsky. On this Friday evening, May repeatedly abused a talented A's lineup.

He allowed a couple of baserunners to get on in the second inning but fanned his opposite number, Blue, to end the threat. The next time Oakland showed any signs of life came in the ninth, when Jackson led off with a walk and stole second base. Pitcher Blue Moon Odom then ran for Jackson (manager Dick Williams often employed Odom as a pinch-runner; it's not entirely clear why Odom entered in this case, although Jackson was out of the lineup the next day, so perhaps he'd suffered an injury of some sort).

After Tommy Davis flied to center, May intentionally walked Bando to face catcher Dave Duncan, who struck out. With light-hitting shortstop Larry Brown due up, Williams summoned Tenace from his bench; May struck him out, too, and that was that. (Tony LaRussa, whose long association with Duncan was just starting, would replace Brown in the field.)

May finally yielded to Eddie Fisher. During his stint, May faced 43 batters and allowed only two (Bando in the second, Jackson in the ninth) to reach scoring position. It was a dominant performance that would prove fruitless thanks to a similar showing from an even better southpaw.

Blue came up with the A's in 1969 and 1970, but 1971 was his first full year in the big leagues... and oh, what a year. At the ripe old age of 21, he led the American League in ERA (1.82) and shutouts (8), taking home the Cy Young and MVP awards. (He also worked a career-high 312 innings, perhaps helping explain why he slipped to a mere 151 the following season.)

How good was Blue's 1971 campaign? Well, no 21-year-old who qualified for the ERA title ever had a better ERA+:

Player          Year    IP ERA+
Vida Blue       1971 312.0 185
Smoky Joe Wood  1911 275.2 162
Hal Newhouser   1942 183.2 162
Bob Feller      1940 320.1 161
Mark Fidrych    1976 250.1 159
Babe Ruth       1916 323.2 158
Ralph Branca    1947 280.0 156
Bret Saberhagen 1985 235.1 145
Eppa Rixey      1912 162.0 144
Britt Burns     1980 238.0 143

WAR tells a similar story, with Blue (8.8) ranking second only to Feller (9.4) in that category. Point is, Blue enjoyed one of the most successful 21-year-old campaigns a pitcher has ever enjoyed. And against the Angels, in his finest season, Blue tossed his finest game.

He got into a little more trouble than May (because May, you recall, got into none whatsoever). The Angels mounted a serious threat in the sixth. Catcher Jerry Moses led off with a double to left. After May struck out, leadoff hitter Sandy Alomar Sr. singled to left, advancing Moses to third. With two men now in scoring position, Blue got serious, fanning Ken Berry and the once-dangerous Tony Conigliaro (acquired the previous October) to escape unharmed.

In the eighth, Blue surrendered a one-out single to May. Alomar, as he had two innings earlier, singled to left, setting the table for Berry and Conigliaro. But Blue again retired them, and that marked the Angels' last serious threat against him.

The relievers were stingy as well. Fisher worked five scoreless innings for California, escaping a bases-loaded jam in the 14th. On the opposite side, Hall-of-Fame closer Rollie Fingers spun seven shutout frames (he saved 17 games in 1971 but still occasionally started; besides, this was "only" the third longest relief appearance of his career).

In the 20th inning, with Angels right-hander Mel Queen beginning his third inning of work, Oakland finally broke though with the game's only run. Queen plunked Curt Blefary to start the frame. After Epstein popped out to first, Dick Green singled to left, moving Blefary up 90 feet. Next, Catfish Hunter, pinch-hitting for reliever (and winner) Darold Knowles, struck out. Angel Mangual proved to be an Angel killer, lining a pitch to right field for a single that brought home Blefary for the win.

According to the New York Times, the game, which had passed the 1 a.m. curfew, would have been suspended if not for Mangual's run-scoring hit. It also notes that the two teams combined for 43 strikeouts, which shattered the previous record of 36 set by the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants in 1964.

May finished the 1971 campaign 11-12 with a 3.02 ERA (107 ERA+). He spent parts of 16 seasons in the big leagues, going 152-156 with a 3.46 ERA (102 ERA+). May's best efforts came in his mid-30s, with the Montreal Expos (1979) and New York Yankees (1980, when he led the AL in ERA). May never was named to an All-Star team, making him one of the winningest pitchers since the All-Star game came into existence to be excluded from the proceedings.

As for Blue, 1971 represented the pinnacle of his career. After winning just six games the following season, Blue rebounded in 1973 and enjoyed a few solid campaigns with a very powerful Oakland team (winning 20 in '73 and 22 in '75) before moving acros the Bay and kicking around for a few more years.

The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract rates Blue as the No. 86 pitcher in baseball history, noting that he won as many games as Don Drysdale. Over parts of 17 seasons, Blue went 209-161 with a 3.27 ERA (108 ERA+). Among more recent players, Blue's career bears some resemblance to that of Kenny Rogers, although Blue was much more dominant at his peak.

Sept. 24, 1971: Houston Astros (2) at San Diego Padres (1), 21 innings

Box score

             IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Ken Forsch 13.0 6 1  1  0  1  8  98
Clay Kirby 15.0 8 1  1  1  3 15 109

Two teams headed nowhere... playing a doubleheader... on a Friday night. The two games lasted a total of 7 hours, 40 minutes. Attendance was given as 6,339, although precious few probably remained to see the Padres win the "nightcap" after losing the opener.

Unfortunately, no play-by-play data exists for this game (it's a credit to the outstanding work Retrosheet has done over the years that we are shocked when such data isn't available), so we'll turn our focus elsewhere.

What we know about the game:
{exp:list_maker}It took 5 hours, 25 minutes to complete
Bill Greif won in relief
In his final big-league appearance, Skip Guinn notched the only save of his career
Hall-of-Fame second baseman Joe Morgan went 0-for-8 with a walk
Johnny Jeter paced the Padres with four hits
Roger Metzger, Rich Chiles, and Forsch each had two hits for the Astros
Garry Jestadt, who collected three hits, drove home Nate Colbert in the second inning for the Padres' lone tally
Chiles homered off Kirby in the fourth
With Gary Ross on the mound, Jesus Alou scored the winning run {/exp:list_maker}The duel featured two promising young right-handers. The 24-year-old Forsch was finishing a fine rookie campaign in which he would go 8-8 with a 2.53 ERA (133 ERA+).

The former Oregon State Beaver (best pitcher to come out of that school, and it's not close) and brother of Bob Forsch spent much of his career shuttling between the rotation and bullpen before becoming a full-time starter in 1979 at age 32. He spent parts of 16 seasons in the big leagues, going 114-113 with a 3.37 ERA (106 ERA+). Imagine Kevin Millwood without Millwood's freakish 1999 campaign.

On the other side, Kirby was a hard thrower with little control. He broke triple digits in walks in each of his first four big-league seasons and ranked third (behind Bill Stoneman and Sam McDowell) in walks from 1969 to 1972.

Thanks to San Diego's inept offense in the early-'70s, Kirby managed to see his team lose the two best starts he ever made. The other came on June 7, 1972, against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He hurled 13 shutout innings, but the Padres never scored, ultimately falling in 18.

Kirby also once nearly tossed a no-hitter for the Padres but was lifted for a pinch-hitter in the eighth (to a chorus of boos from hometown fans that had little to cheer) by manager Preston Gomez. The Padres, despite Mat Latos' near-miss in 2010, are still looking for their first such gem.

July 14, 1972: Cleveland Indians (2) at Texas Rangers (0), 14 innings

Box score

                IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Gaylord Perry 13.0 9 0  0  0  3  9  95
Mike Paul     11.0 3 0  0  0  0 10 101

Perry danced, like his pitches, in and out of trouble all night. Thanks to shoddy defense by the Rangers, Perry ended up earning the victory, but for a while it looked he would yield first.

In the second inning, Texas put runners on second and third with one out. Perry struck out catcher Hal King and retired second baseman Lenny Randle (whose evening would get worse) on a flyball to left for the final out. Three innings later, the Rangers loaded the bases against Perry with two out, but the dangerous Don Mincher grounded to second to end the frame. They had other, smaller opportunities, but couldn't cash in on those either.

Paul, meanwhile, gave the Indians nothing. His first time through the lineup, he retired all nine batters, five via strikeout. He faced the minimum through seven innings, the only blemish being a single off the bat of Jack Brohamer with one out in the fourth (Brohamer was immediately erased when Alex Johnson rapped into a 6-3 double play).

Cleveland didn't get its next baserunner until right fielder Ron Lolich (cousin of Mickey Lolich) singled to left with two out in the eighth. The only other chance the Indians had against Paul came in the 10th, thanks to the defensive exploits of shortstop Toby Harrah (and perhaps foreshadowing events to come).

After Brohamer flied out to start the 10th, Johnson grounded to Harrah, who mishandled the ball. No problem: With Ray Fosse at the plate, Paul promptly picked Johnson off first base. Fosse then grounded to Harrah, who... yep, mishandled the ball. Texas skipper Ted Williams removed Harrah from the game, replacing him with Ted Kubiak (whether this bothered Harrah is anyone's guess; TNBJHBA suggests that Harrah conflicted with his manager back then, although if that's the case, he seems to have gotten over it). Williams needn't have bothered, as Graig Nettles popped to first for the final out.

The Indians finally broke through in the 14th, when Texas' defense again faltered. Right-hander Jim Panther, in his second inning of work, retired the first two batters he faced. Light-hitting shortstop Frank Duffy then bounced to third baseman Dave Nelson, who couldn't make the play. With Del Unser batting for Perry, Duffy swiped second. Unser followed with a grounder to Randle, who... couldn't make the play. A single by Buddy Bell drove home Duffy, and another by Brohamer (off Paul Lindblad, who replaced the unlucky Panther) plated Unser.

Ed Farmer worked the bottom half, preserving Pery's 15th win of the season. Perry would go on to win 24 games that year and the first of his two Cy Young Awards. (It was a dominant season. James opines in TNBJHBA that Perry's '72 performance was the best by an AL hurler since 1931, a fact obscured by his team's lousy record and the presence of a certain Steve Carlton in the National League.)

You know the important bits of Perry's career, but they bear repeating. He pitched parts of 22 seasons, retiring in 1983 with a 314-265 record and 3.11 ERA (117 ERA+). TNBJHBA ranks him no. 18 all time among pitchers, behind Jim Palmer and ahead of Ed Walsh.

Perry also gained fame for his use of the spitter. Or, as his then-5-year-old daughter Allison called it, "a hard slider." Like Ken Forsch, Perry had a brother who was a successful big-league pitcher, Jim Perry. Between them, they won 529 games (in TNBJHBA, James cites the Perrys as the best pitching family in baseball history).

As for Paul, the Indians were familiar with the University of Arizona left-hander. After all, they had taken him in the 20th round of the 1967 June draft. Paul spent four undistinguished (14-33, 4.39 ERA, 82 ERA+) seasons in Cleveland before being shipped to Texas in a deal for, among others, the aforementioned Unser.

In 1972, Paul inexplicably (and irrepeatably) turned in a brilliant performance. Despite a pedestrian 8-9 record, he sported a 2.17 ERA and 139 ERA+, both marks placing him sixth best in the AL. The following season saw him revert to mediocrity and get traded to the Cubs for young left-hander Larry Gura. A year later, Paul was done, with a career line of 27-48, 3.91 ERA (89 ERA+).

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Epic pitchers duels, Part 3

Geoff Young — 2010-12-08T09:06:15+00:00

In Part 1 of this series, we identified parameters for defining a great pitchers duel (the two starters both must have compiled Game Scores of 95 or higher) and examined games that met our criteria in the 1920s and 1930s. Part 2 covered the 1940s. The current installment moves ahead to the 1950s and 1960s.

Aug. 13, 1954: Detroit Tigers (0) at Chicago White Sox (1), 16 innings

Box score

                IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Al Aber       15.1 9 1 	1  0  3  8 101
Jack Harshman 16.0 9 0  0  0  7 12 109

In this battle of dueling southpaws, both men got into (and out of) second-inning jams. In the top half, a walk and two singles loaded the bases with one out for Frank Bolling, but Harshman fanned him and Aber to end the threat. The White Sox put two runners on in the bottom half, but Aber got Jim Rivera to ground out and Johnny Groth to pop up.

After that, two men on the bases at once became a rarity. The Tigers did it in the sixth, ninth, 13th and 16th innings (with Bill Tuttle making the final out in the ninth and 16th). The White Sox did it in the seventh (with Rivera this time popping up and Groth grounding out to end the inning) and 12th.

In the 16th, after Detroit left two runners stranded, Chico Carrasquel led off the home half with a single to left field. Carrasquel was forced out on a Nellie Fox sacrifice bunt attempt, bringing up Minnie Minoso, who smacked a triple to right that scored Fox and ended the game.

According to the New York Times, the end came with controversy:

The Tigers argued that an usher, stationed in foul territory to retrieve foul balls, had interfered with the outfielder, Al Kaline, but the umpires couldn't see it that way. They contended that the usher had left his chair and made a move toward the ball but did not touch it or interfere with Kaline.

The game also extended Harshman's scoreless innings streak to 28 and saw Detroit first baseman Wayne Belardi bat out of order. In the 15th inning, Belardi, who had entered the contest two frames earlier, popped to the catcher while batting in the No. 5 spot. The next inning, he laid down a sacrifice bunt in his correct No. 8 spot.

As for our pitching heroes, both were journeymen. They won 93 big-league games combined. Aber, part of a blockbuster trade a year earlier, finished the 1954 season with a 5-11 record and 3.97 ERA (94 ERA+). He was the Ray Fontenot of his day, although 25 years after Fontenot's career ended, he is barely remembered.

Harshman enjoyed a little more success, although his path to the Show was paved with oddities. In 1949, at Triple-A Minneapolis, the 21-year-old Harshman hit .270/.413/.570, leading the American Association in runs scored (121), and finishing second in homers (40) and walks (122). This was no fluke; he'd hit 36 homers at Victoria of the Western International League two years earlier and would hit 47 at Nashville of the Southern Association two years later. In fact, he hit 192 minor-league home runs (and 21 more in the big leagues).

Harshman went 14-8 with a 2.95 ERA (127 ERA+) in 1954, his first big-league campaign as a pitcher (he'd come up earlier with the New York Giants as a first baseman). He retired in 1961 (spending that final year back in the minors) with a 69-65 record and 3.50 ERA (109 ERA+) over parts of eight seasons. As a pitcher, Harshman was sort of like Britt Burns. As a hitter, he was like Carlos Zambrano.

July 2, 1963: Milwaukee Braves (0) at San Francisco Giants (1), 16 innings

Box score

                IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Warren Spahn  15.1 9 1  1  1  1  2  97
Juan Marichal 16.0 8 0  0  0  4 10 112

Two Hall-of-Fame pitchers... A walkoff homer by another enshrinee... What's not to love?

Spahn was 42 and near the end of his brilliant career; Marichal was 25 and, already an accomplished hurler, on his way to even better things. Both pitchers dominated. Not including the homer (we'll get to that in a moment), only two men reached third base in the entire game. Orlando Cepeda got there for the Giants with two out in the second inning. Teammate Harvey Kuenn did the same with two out in the 14th, when San Francisco blew a golden opportunity to end the game.

Kuenn led off with a double to center field. Spahn then intentionally walked Willie Mays to get to Willie McCovey, who popped out to the catcher. After Felipe Alou flied to center for the second out, Cepeda reached on an error by third baseman Denis Menke to load the bases. Ed Bailey then flied to center for the final out.

Marichal, for his part, never let anyone get past second base. Milwaukee managed to get two runners on just once—in the fourth inning. With two out, Norm Larker drew a walk. Mack Jones singled to left, advancing Larker 90 feet. Del Crandall then singled to right center, with Larker being thrown out at home by Mays to end the frame.

Finally, in the 16th, after Kuenn made the first out, Mays (there he goes again!) launched a home run to give Marichal and the Giants the victory. Mays, incidentally, is the only batter on either side to post a positive WPA in this one. Two days after the game, Spahn, Marichal, Bailey, Cepeda, Mays and McCovey all were named to the National League All-Star team, managed by San Francisco's Alvin Dark. (Hank Aaron, who went 0-for-6 with a walk against Marichal in this one, also made the team.)

Spahn finished the season 23-7 with a 2.60 ERA (124 ERA+), completing 22 of his 33 starts. (On a personal note, I'm a few months shy of my 42nd birthday, and it hurts just thinking about that—Spahn's complete games, not my birthday.)

Although Spahn hung around for two more seasons, 1963 marked the last time he was effective on a regular basis. After that, he went 13-29 with a 4.61 ERA (77 ERA+). Still, those hardly make a dent in what was a brilliant career that saw him finish with a 363-245 record, 3.09 ERA (119 ERA+), a Cy Young Award and four top-three finishes (when there was only one award for both leagues), and obscene amounts of black ink. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract ranks Spahn as the No. 5 pitcher of all time. More recently, our own Dave Studeman put him at No. 6.

TNBJHBA puts Marichal at No. 21, and for good reason. Although his career wasn't as long or as decorated as Spahn's (Marichal's best Cy Young finish came in 1971, when he placed eighth in an award for NL pitchers only), Marichal did OK for himself. In the season of his duel with Spahn, he led the league in wins (25) and innings pitched (321.1), finishing fourth in ERA (2.41) and strikeouts (248), and sixth in ERA+ (133).

Marichal retired following a brief stint with the Dodgers in 1975. Over parts of 16 seasons, he went 243-142 with a 2.89 ERA (123 ERA+).

Sept. 30, 1964: Pittsburgh Pirates (1) at Cincinnati Reds (0), 16 innings

Box score

              IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Bob Veale   12.1 7 0  0  0  8 16  97
Jim Maloney 11.0 3 0  0  0  2 13 102

Tom Tango once devised a pitch count estimator that runs like so:

3.3 PA + 1.5 SO + 2.2 BB, where PA = 3 IP + H + BB

Using the more conservative number of batters Veale faced according to the box score (52) rather than Tango's PA equation (which yields 55), we get an estimate of 213 pitches. That is an honest day's work by any definition. Maloney's estimate comes to 149—what a slacker.

For all their efforts, neither man figured in the outcome. The Reds had numerous chances to win but blew them all. They got Chico Ruiz to third base with one out in the fourth, but Frank Robinson and Deron Johnson couldn't drive him home. They left runners at the corners in the ninth; runners at second and third in 10th; and the bases loaded in the 11th, 13th and 14th. (Those last two were with one out, so all the Reds needed was a fly ball to the outfield. They got two infield popups, a strikeout, and a grounder to shortstop.)

The Pirates, meanwhile, couldn't get anything going. Between catcher Jerry May's single to center leading off the eighth and Donn Clendenon's double to right leading off the 16th, they failed to record a hit against Maloney and two relievers.

Clendenon's double was the game's first and only extra-base hit. He advanced to third on a sacrifice bunt by Bill Mazeroski and scored on a bunt single to first base by May. Al McBean, who retired Pete Rose, Ruiz, and Vada Pinson on consecutive grounders in the bottom half, won in relief. John Tsitouris absorbed the loss.

Although Pittsburgh won the contest, they lost their manager. According to the New York Times, Danny Murtaugh resigned after the game "because of his health."

The game itself had potential playoff implications. At the start of the day, Cincinnati had been tied with the Cardinals for first place in the NL. A St. Louis victory over the Phillies, coupled with the Reds' repeated failure to push across a single run, knocked Cincinnati out of the top spot. Although the Reds reclaimed their share of first place with one day remaining in the season, they ended up losing the pennant by a single game.

As for the principals, Veale enjoyed a fine campaign in 1964, his first as a rotation regular. He went 18-12, with a 2.74 ERA (128 ERA+), and led the league in walks and strikeouts. (Veale would lead the NL in walks every season from 1964 to 1968, except for '66, when he finished second to Tony Cloninger.)

Veale's 18 wins represented a career high. He retired in 1974 with a 120-95 record and a 3.07 ERA (113 ERA+). From a statistical standpoint, he's kind of like Sid Fernandez but with more complete games and fewer home runs allowed.

Maloney, meanwhile, had emerged in 1963 as a 23-game winner. He went 15-10 with a 2.71 ERA (133 ERA+) in 1964 and enjoyed a nice run from '63 to '69. Like Veale, Maloney had control issues, routinely finishing among the top five in walks allowed and twice leading the league in wild pitches.

Maloney retired in 1971 at age 31 with a 134-84 record and a 3.19 ERA (116 ERA+). His career numbers look a lot like what Chris Carpenter has done through age 35. Maloney also compares well to J.R. Richard.

These were both good pitchers with relatively short peaks. The career numbers of Veale and Maloney aren't all that dissimilar:

         GS     IP   W-L   ERA ERA+ H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Veale   255 1926.0 120-95 3.07 113  7.9  0.4  4.0  8.0
Maloney 262 1849.0 134-84 3.19 116  7.4  0.7  3.9  7.8

Oct. 2, 1965: Philadelphia Phillies (0) at New York Mets (0), 18 innings

Box score

            IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Chris Short 15 9 0  0  0  3 18 114
Rob Gardner 15 5 0  0  0  2  7 112

Twice since 1920 have two pitchers exceeded a Game Score of 110 in the same contest. The first was the Leon Cadore/Joe Oeschger duel discussed in Part 1 of our series. This is the second such game.

This was also the second game of the evening at Shea Stadium. Jim Bunning held the Mets to two singles in the first, handing them their 110th loss of the season, a 6-0 whitewashing. It was a rough night for the home team. The Mets went a combined 11-for-88 in the two games and failed to score in 27 innings.

Both Short and Gardner got into trouble almost immediately in the nightcap. The Phillies had runners at second and third with one out in the first inning, but Dick Stuart struck out and Alex Johnson flied out to end the frame. The Mets put runners at the corners in the bottom half, but Short struck out rookie Ron Swoboda looking to escape unscathed.

The Mets had scattered opportunities throughout the night. They loaded the bases in the third, but Danny Napoleon, who had replaced Swoboda (he was ejected after disputing the third strike in his first at-bat)—you guessed it, struck out looking for the final out. They put a couple more on base in the ninth and again in the 11th, but no dice.

The Phillies? Not including the first inning, they got just three runners into scoring position—one in the third, one in the 10th and one in the 15th. The game, which meant nothing to Philadelphia and even less to the Mets, eventually was called because of a curfew.

For the 27-year-old Short, this game put the finishing touches on arguably his best season in the big leagues. He went 18-11, with a 2.82 ERA (123 ERA+) and a career-high 237 strikeouts. The 18 strikeouts he notched against New York tied for high water mark in baseball that year (Jim Maloney matched that total, also against the Mets). Over parts of 15 seasons (all but one with the Phillies), Short went 135-132, with a 3.43 ERA (104 ERA+) before retiring in 1973.

Gardner, meanwhile, did something that Mets skipper Wes Westrum never should have let him do. The 20-year-old Gardner was making his fourth big-league start. Using Tango's pitch count estimator, we get a total of 190, which seems a tad excessive for someone so young.

Then again, Gardner had worked 241 innings two years earlier in the minors, so maybe it didn't matter. Whatever the case, his career fizzled. He spent all of 1966 with the Mets but was largely ineffective (133.2 IP, 5.12 ERA, 71 ERA+). Gardner bounced around until 1973, when he made his last big-league appearance. His final career line: 14-18, 4.35 ERA (79 ERA+).

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In defense of the Padres defense

Geoff Young — 2010-12-01T08:19:15+00:00

Some people, when visiting the lovely islands of Hawai'i, spend their days luxuriating beneath the sun along pristine white sand beaches. Others sit on the couch at their in-laws' house and pore over The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2011 for hours on end in the hope of gaining further insight into the game that, despite Bud Selig's assertions to the contrary, Abner Doubleday never invented.

Very well. Let us speak no more of these so-called "beaches"...

* * *

The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2011 contains, among many fascinating items, detailed information regarding the defensive performance of individual players and teams. From this, we can learn that the San Diego Padres improved many aspects of their defense from 2009 to 2010, which may help explain their overall improvement. (There are other factors, but we will leave those for another day.)

Before discussing some of these improvements, let us examine areas in which the Padres have remained consistent on defense in recent years. Two that stand out are the ability of their infielders to defend against the bunt and the inability of their outfielders to throw out baserunners attempting to advance.

According to metrics devised by John Dewan, the Padres were the best in defending against the bunt in 2008 and have ranked among the top 10 in MLB in each of the past two years. This is perhaps not surprising given that they have, in Adrian Gonzalez, a first baseman who possesses a strong arm and the willingness to use it.

They also had Kevin Kouzmanoff (who excelled at coming in on balls) at third base in 2008 and 2009, and Chase Headley (who, as we will see, excelled at everything) there last year. Having Greg Maddux on the mound every fifth day in '08 couldn't have hurt.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Padres have ranked last or second to last at keeping baserunners from advancing in each of the past three seasons:

         2008 2009 2010
XB/Opps* .509 .551 .518
Rank       29   30   29

*This is the number of extra bases taken by opposing baserunners divided by the number of opportunities to do so.

To provide context, the best teams typically (read "from 2008 to 2010" throughout this article) allow 39 to 40 percent of opposing baserunners to advance; the worst allow 51 to 55 percent. With the presence of such weak-armed outfielders as Brian Giles and Tony Gwynn Jr. in recent years, it should come as no great shock that the Padres have struggled in this area.

The good news, if you choose to view it as such, is that Padres outfielders have had fewer opportunities to keep runners from advancing than most teams:

       2008 2009 2010
Padres  424  428  388
Min     379  360  332
Max     549  532  515
Rank     19   17*  23

*Denotes tie

* * *

Those areas of stability notwithstanding, the Padres made significant advances in 2010, almost all of which came on the infield. Here are San Diego's defensive runs saved by position for 2009 and 2010, presented in descending order of improvement from the first year to the second:

   2009 2010 Dif
2B  -20    5 +25
3B    1   21 +20
SS  -14    2 +16
P     5   10  +5
RF   -4    1  +5
C     2    1  -1
LF    0   -1  -1
CF   17   14  -3
1B   12    0 -12
Tot  -1   53 +54

Curiously, the three biggest positive changes came about in radically different circumstances. David Eckstein was the Padres' primary second baseman both years, and yet, the position went from being a glaring weakness to a moderate strength without any change in personnel. As is the case with other aspects of player performance, defense is subject to yearly fluctuations.

At third base, the Padres replaced Kouzmanoff (who received some support for the National League Gold Glove on the basis of his extraordinarily low error total) with Headley, who in his first year as a starter at the position in the big leagues made more plays out of zone than any other NL third baseman, including Ryan Zimmerman.

At shortstop, the Padres saw improvement despite a lack of stability at the position. Where Everth Cabrera handled the bulk of the duty as a rookie in 2009, a triumvirate of Cabrera, Jerry Hairston Jr. and Miguel Tejada split it evenly in 2010. They combined to provide excellent defense, with Hairston being the best of the lot and Cabrera the worst.

* * *

Another way to look at the Padres' defense is through the lens of plus/minus, another fielding system invented by Dewan. Note again the change in middle infield play:

    2009 2010 Dif
MI   -38  +10 +48
CI   +18  +23  +5
OF   +31  +23  -8
Tot  +11  +56 +45
Rnk   12    3   -

According to this metric, San Diego's defensive improvement came almost entirely from the middle infield, with marginal gains on the corner infield nearly offsetting marginal losses in the outfield. This jibes reasonably well with the aforementioned runs saved numbers.

One more set of numbers supports the theory of improved infield play, and this is double plays. Despite being presented with fewer opportunities in 2010, the Padres turned more twin killings than in the previous year:

     2009 2010   Dif
Opps  318  295   -23
GDP   117  120    +3
Pct  .368 .407 +.039
Rnk    26   13     -

The Padres weren't great at turning the double play in 2010, but middle of the pack represents dramatic improvement over bottom five. The best teams typically convert 49 to 52 percent of their opportunities, while the worst convert 37 to 41 percent. Only three teams in MLB exhibited greater improvement in terms of percentage from 2009 to 2010. Here are the top five:

          2009 2010   Dif
Rockies   .359 .442 +.083
Blue Jays .420 .492 +.072
Yankees   .386 .443 +.057
Padres    .368 .407 +.039
White Sox .414 .453 +.039

For grins, here are the five worst "descenders" (it was a rough year for the American League West):

         2009 2010   Dif
Angels   .492 .387 -.105
Royals   .413 .332 -.081
Rangers  .478 .398 -.080
Pirates  .409 .336 -.073
Mariners .451 .397 -.054

The Rangers reached the World Series, so who knows. Then again, when most folks think about the Rangers, infield defense probably isn't the first thing that comes to mind.

As for the Padres, they infamously fell just short of the playoffs. There were many reasons for this, but defense—particularly on the infield—wasn't one of them.

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Epic pitchers duels (Part 1)

Geoff Young — 2010-11-26T11:20:15+00:00

What makes a battle between two pitchers "epic"? According to Merriam-Webster, "epic" means, among other things, "extending beyond the usual or ordinary, especially in size or scope." So one way to approach the problem would be to look for games in which both starting pitchers "extend beyond the ordinary."

Very well; we will need a metric to judge whether a particular performance meets this criterion. Fortunately, such a beast exists.

Bill James introduced the Game Score metric back in the day as a way of measuring the effectiveness of a starting pitcher in a single game. Roughly speaking, it judges a pitcher's performance on a scale of 0 to 100 (although it is possible to extend above or below those limits), with 50 representing an average start. The highest recorded Game Score in a nine-inning game is 105, recorded by the Cubs' Kerry Wood in 1998.

Returning to our original question, the criterion we will use for excellence is a Game Score of 95. This is an arbitrary number that was chosen primarily because the number of games in which both pitchers meet or exceed it is large enough to stimulate discussion but not so large as to overwhelm.

Since 1920, there have been 15 instances in which pitchers for both teams achieved Game Scores of 95 or higher. Not only were all these great pitching performances, they were great games.

May 1, 1920: Brooklyn Robins (1) at Boston Braves (1), 26 innings

Box score

                    IP  H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Leon Cadore, Bro  26.0 15 1  1  0  5  7 140
Joe Oeschger, BsN 26.0  9 1  1  0  4  7 153

The Robins collected nine hits (all singles) in this one; the Braves, 15. Ivy Olson singled home Ernie Krueger in the top of the fifth, Tony Boeckel singled home Walton Cruise (who had tripled) in the bottom of the sixth, and then Cadore and Oeschger took over.

Oeschger, who once roomed with the legendary Jim Thorpe, recalled the rain-threatened contest in a 1980 interview published in the Baseball Research Journal:

We didn't think the game would be played, but we had to report to the park. It was a Saturday, and I didn't think I would pitch because Manager Stallings usually pitched me on Sundays because I went to church. He always played his hunches. I was happy to get the starting job because Cadore was pitching, and he had beaten me 1-0 in 11 innings earlier in the season. I wanted to even things.

The late, great Jerome Holtzman wrote about this game in the November 2000 Baseball Digest. His article is peppered with snippets from contemporary newspaper accounts as well as quotes from Cadore, including this one:

Some of the ballplayers, particularly Ivy Olson, begged the umps to let it go one more inning but they overruled him and called it. Maybe it was just as well. Just what would have happened if they had lights in those days, is hard to tell.

The New York Times recap also noted that both pitchers benefited from fine defense:

In the seventeenth inning one of the most remarkable double plays ever seen in Boston retired Brooklyn. The bases were filled and one was out when Elliott grounded to Oeschger. Wheat was forced at the plate, but Gowdy's throw to Holke was low and was fumbled. Konetchy tried to score from second and Gowdy received Holke's throw to one side and threw himself blindly across the plate to meet Konetchy's spikes with bare fist.

If the long game took its toll on either pitcher, it didn't happen right away. Cadore, 29 at the time, finished the 1920 season with a 15-14 record and a 2.62 ERA (123 ERA+). He went 25-31 with a 4.23 ERA (95+ ERA) afterward and retired at age 33.

Oeschger went 15-13 with a 3.46 ERA (88 ERA+) in 1920. He followed that with his first (and only) 20-win season, finishing 20-14 with a 3.52 ERA (103 ERA+). Like Cadore, Oeschger retired at age 33.

One more aspect of the game is worth noting: It took three hours and 50 minutes. Contrast that with a nine-inning affair between the Red Sox and Yankees on Aug. 18, 2006, that lasted four hours and 45 minutes.

May 3, 1920: Brooklyn Robins (1) at Boston Braves (2), 19 innings

Box score

                      IP  H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Sherry Smith, Bro   18.1 13 2  2  0  5  3  97
Dana Fillingim, BsN 19.0 12 1  1  0  4  4 111

This came two days after the Cadore-Oeschger battle, which according to the New York Times didn't go over well with the players at the time:

The athletes argue that they draw down their salaries for playing nine-inning ball games, whereas in their last two meetings, Saturday and today, they have been obliged to labor a total of forty-five innings, or, in other words, five full games, as games are ordinarily measured, before being able to reach a decision.

The account goes on to note that the Robins, between the two games in Boston, had to play a 13-inning affair against the Phillies (which the Robins also lost) back at Ebbets Field. As the Times writer observed, "It isn't right, Simon Legree, it isn't right."

On the bright side, it makes for a great story 90 years after the fact.

As for the game in question, it duplicated the contest from two days earlier in many respects: Brooklyn scored a single run in the fifth, with Boston responding the next inning. In the fifth, Smith lined a one-out single to left. Leadoff man Olson did the same. After another hit loaded the bases, Jimmy Johnston singled to right. Smith came home to score, with Olson being thrown out at the plate. Hall-of-Famer Zack Wheat then flied to right to end the threat.

The Braves answered with two walks, a single, and a sacrifice fly off the bat of Walter Holke. Then, nothing but zeroes for a very long time. In the 17th inning, Brooklyn skipper Wilbert Robinson appealed to plate umpire Bob Hart to "call the game on account of darkness" but Hart refused. Robinson then pleaded his case to the other umpire, Barry McCormick, who "stood by his colleague's decision."

In the 19th, Fillingim walked two batters, but Brooklyn could not push across a run. In the bottom half, the Braves ended the game on consecutive one-out singles by John Sullivan, Holke and Boeckel. The contest had taken three hours and 5 minutes to play.

Smith, who is perhaps best known for his epic 14-inning battle against Red Sox southpaw Babe Ruth in the 1916 World Series (Smith lost that one, too), finished the 1920 campaign with an 11-9 record and 1.85 ERA (175 ERA+). He went on to make two brilliant starts in that season's fall classic, which his team lost to Cleveland.

Smith retired in 1927 with a 114-118 record and 3.32 ERA (108 ERA+). The World War I veteran later served as a coach for the Macon Peaches of the Southeastern League before leaving baseball and pursuing a career in law enforcement.

Fillingim, one of the last legal spitballers, went 47-73 with a 3.56 ERA (93 ERA+) over parts of eight big-league seasons and twice won 20 games in a season in the minors. The aggravation in 1922 of an old high school knee injury hastened the premature end of his career a few years later.

July 2, 1933: St. Louis Cardinals (0) at New York Giants (1), 18 innings

Box score

                    IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Tex Carleton, StL 16.0 8 0  0  0  7  7 106
Carl Hubbell, NYG 18.0 6 0  0  0  0 12 132

Since 1920, eight pitchers have worked 16 or more scoreless innings in a game. Rube Benton was the first (1920), Gaylord Perry the last (1967). Carleton and Hubbell are the only two men to accomplish the feat in the same game, and Carleton is the only pitcher whose team lost such a contest. Hubbell also worked more innings that Sunday at the Polo Grounds without issuing a walk than anyone has in a single game over at least the past 90 years.

This was the first game of a doubleheader. The Giants would sweep, winning both games by identical 1-0 scores. A Hughie Critz single with two out in the 18th off reliever Jesse Haines drove home Jo-Jo Moore to tally the opener's only run and give the home team its first win of the day in front of 50,000 fans. The New York Times was suitably impressed by Hubbell's performance:

The tall, somber left-hander rose to his greatest heights, surpassing even his brilliant no-hit classic of 1928.

Carleton, meanwhile, "was only slightly less brilliant." The Giants threatened in the 11th when they loaded the bases with one out, but Carleton induced Moore and catcher Gus Mancuso to ground out, thus escaping the inning unscathed.

In the 15th, Hall-of-Famer Bill Terry knocked a two-out triple. Carleton intentionally walked another Hall-of-Famer, Mel Ott, and retired third baseman Johnny Vergez to end the threat.

Hubbell went 23-12 with a 1.66 ERA (195 ERA+) and beat out Chuck Klein for National League MVP that year. This was the first of five straight 20-win seasons for Hubbell, who would retire in 1943 with a career line of 253-154, 2.98 ERA (130 ERA+) and be inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1947. Not bad for a guy who didn't reach the big leagues until age 25 because a former manager (Ty Cobb) forbade him from throwing his best pitch, the infamous screwball.

Carleton had a less distinguished career, being more the Mark Portugal or Ismael Valdez of his day. Carleton went 17-11 with a 3.38 ERA (104 ERA+) in 1933. He retired in 1940, following an eight-year stay in the big leagues, during which he compiled a 100-76 record and a 3.91 ERA (100 ERA+).

April 29, 1936: New York Giants (1) at St. Louis Cardinals (2), 17 innings

Box score

                    IP  H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Carl Hubbell, NYG 16.1 11 2  1  0  4  6  97
Roy Parmelee, StL 17.0  6 1  1  0  4  9 111

It took nearly three years, but the Cardinals managed to exact their revenge on Hubbell. To make matters worse, they did it with a pitcher who had toiled for the Giants a year earlier.

Parmelee wasn't an exceptional pitcher in most respects. Sure, he led the league in certain categories (walks once, wild pitches twice, and hit batsmen four times), but none worth celebrating. His career line of 59-55 and a 4.27 ERA (90 ERA+) leaves him within shouting distance of, say, Tony Armas Jr. or perhaps Daniel Cabrera, who similarly threw hard but with little control and therefore little success.

From The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers (quoting Parmelee's former catcher, Ray Hayworth):

He could throw hard. He would throw that sinker, which would hit on the front end of the plate and it would get you in the arms... he had a tremendous arm.

On this day, Parmelee battled his former teammate for 17 innings and came out on top. The game remained scoreless into the 12th inning, when Hank Leiber singled home Burgess Whitehead (for whom Parmelee had been traded four and a half months prior) to give the visitors a 1-0 lead.

The Cardinals answered in the bottom half and almost won the game then. With one out, Joe Medwick singled and Johnny Mize doubled. After Hubbell walked Spud Davis to load the bases, Charlie Gelbert singled to right, scoring Medwick. Pinch-runner Stu Martin, in for Mize, also tried to score on the play but was thrown out at home by Ott and the game continued.

A crowd of 4,500 watched the game, although not all survived. One person in attendance, Henry Hoffmann, "died of a heart attack a few seconds before the winning run was scored."

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Epic pitchers duels (Part 2)

Geoff Young — 2010-11-24T08:31:15+00:00

In Part 1 of this series, we identified parameters for defining a great pitchers duel (the two starters both must have compiled Game Scores of 95 or higher) and examined games that met our criteria in the 1920s and 1930s. The current installment moves ahead to the 1940s and 1950s.

Aug. 11, 1942: Detroit Tigers (0) at Cleveland Indians (0), 14 innings

Box score

                     IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Tommy Bridges, Det 14.0 9 0  0  0  5  8  97
Al Milnar, Cle     14.0 2 0  0  0  4  0 111

Bridges gets his own chapter in The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers. There, he is noted as "having the best curve of his generation." It was such a devastating pitch that he couldn't always control it, especially early in his career. Back in the '30s, Bridges issued 100 or more walks in six consecutive seasons, becoming the first pitcher to do so. (During that same period, he also gave up Babe Ruth's 700th career homer.)

Bridges had a successful career, finishing in 1946 with a 194-138 record and 3.57 ERA (126 ERA+) over parts of 16 seasons. He won 20 or more games in 1934, 1935 and 1936, and made six American League All-Star teams. If he wasn't a Hall-of-Famer, he was at least a darned good pitcher, sort of the Dave Stieb or David Cone of his era.

Milnar, for his part, flirted with a no-hitter in this one, finally relenting with two outs in the ninth, when Doc Cramer singled to right field. Rudy York singled later in the contest, but the Tigers never mounted a serious threat against Milnar, who became the only pitcher since at least 1920 to achieve a triple-digit Game Score while failing to record a strikeout. He is unlikely to be joined in that exclusive club any time soon.

The left-handed native of Cleveland wasn't averse to issuing a few walks himself. Milnar broke the century mark in 1941, after missing by one in each of the previous two seasons. He also joined Bridges on the 1940 All-Star team, although neither pitcher appeared in the game.

By 1942, Milnar was on the downside of his career. He went 6-8 with a 4.13 ERA (84 ERA+) that season and retired shortly thereafter with a 57-58 record and 4.22 ERA (97 ERA+)... numbers similar to those Mike Norris put up some 40 years later.

April 27, 1943: Philadelphia Athletics (2) at Washington Senators (1), 16 innings

Box score

                    IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Jesse Flores, PhA 15.2 6 1  1  0  6  3 100
Early Wynn, Was   13.0 6 0  0  0  1  4  98

On the same day the World Champion New York Giants acquired veteran catcher Ernie Lombardi, young screwballing right-hander Flores made his second big-league start and bested a Hall-of-Famer. The game remained scoreless until the 16th inning, when Philadelphia broke through against reliever Ray Scarborough for two runs on singles by Irv Hall and Bob Swift, a walk, and... well, the Associated Press accounts of the time call it an error by Senators second baseman Jerry Priddy, although this error doesn't appear in the box scores available today.

The Senators scored a run of their own in the bottom half when Bob Johnson (a player worth remembering) drove home Gene Moore with a base hit. But Roger Wolff, working in relief of Flores, secured the final out and the victory.

Flores, a native of Mexico who grew up picking oranges in Southern California, came to baseball because of his affiliation with the citrus growers. An article in the Summer 2003 Western Historical Quarterly quotes a prominent citrus company executive of the day:

In order to produce the desired workers, [Mexican males] have to become a member of a local society or baseball team . . . to increase their physical and mental capacity to do more work.

Flores would finish the season 12-14, with a 3.11 ERA (109 ERA+). He eventually spent parts of seven seasons in the big leagues, retiring in 1950 with a 44-59 record and 3.18 ERA (112 ERA+).

Flores' best work, aside from the one shining moment in Washington, D.C., came in the minors. He went 24-6 with a 2.38 ERA for Bisbee of the Arizona League in 1938 and 21-10 with a 3.04 ERA for the PCL San Diego Padres in 1949.

Despite Flores' reputation for being a slow worker ("far and away the most infuriating hurler in the big time," according to a quote in The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers), the game took 3 hours, 16 minutes to complete.

After his playing career ended, Flores became a scout. Some of his more notable discoveries include Reggie Smith, Lyman Bostock and Bert Blyleven.

Wynn was just starting his own fine career when this game took place. The 23-year-old from Alabama finished 1942 with an 18-12 record and a 2.91 ERA (110 ERA+). He later would break the 20-win barrier five times in his career and finish with a record of 300-244 and 3.53 ERA (107 ERA+), putting him in the same general category as guys like Tommy John and Jim Kaat. Wynn also was known for his tendency to throw inside, as this anecdote from The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract relates:

Somebody once said that he would knock down his own mother if she crowded the plate on him. "Why shouldn't I?" said Wynn. "My mother was a damned good hitter..."

July 21, 1945: Detroit Tigers (1) at Philadelphia Athletics (1), 24 innings

Box score

                        IP  H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Les Mueller, Det      19.2 13 1  0  0  5  6 112
Russ Christopher, PhA 13.0  5 1  1  0  2  8  99
Joe Berry, PhA        11.0  6 0  0  0  5  2  82*

*Game Scores are assigned to starters only, but Berry's performance in relief of Christopher deserves mention so his has been calculated as well, in the same manner as if he had started.

The game lasted 4 hours, 48 minutes, breaking the 39-year-old record for longest game by one minute. Plate umpire Bill Summers ultimately called the game because, as he admitted in AP accounts, "I couldn't see Dizzy Trout's fastball anymore. I don't think anyone else could."

The A's scored first, in the fourth inning. Dick Siebert reached first on an error by Rudy York, advanced to third on a Bobby Estalella double, and scored on a single by Buddy Rosar.

The Tigers answered in the seventh. Roy Cullenbine walked, advanced to third on a York single, and scored on a Doc Cramer groundout.

Philadelphia threatened in the 10th, but Hal Peck was thrown out at the plate by left fielder Jimmy Outlaw on a single by Estalella. Detroit had chances of its own in the 22nd and 24th, loading the bases for Bobby Maier both times. The weak-hitting third baseman flied out in the 22nd and rapped into a double play in the 24th.

Detroit catcher Bob Swift worked all 24 innings. (He would work 15 innings of a doubleheader the next day and start again the day after that thanks to a leg injury to the Tigers' other catcher, Paul Richards.) As Swift's Philadelphia counterpart, Rosar, quipped: "I didn't have any spring training. I packed the whole training course into one game."

This contest represents the pinnacle of Mueller's brief career (he made just 18 starts, all in '45, and a total of 30 appearances). The sidearming right-hander from Illinois won six big-league games but helped lead the Tigers to the World Series and earned a ring for beating the Cubs in that year's fall classic.

Christopher stuck around a little longer than Mueller. The right-hander from California went 13-13 with a 3.17 ERA (108 ERA+) in 1945, and finished his big-league career in 1948 with a 54-64 record and 3.37 ERA (106 ERA+).

The "other" pitcher here, Berry, didn't make his big-league debut until age 37 and didn't stick until two years later. The right-hander from Arkansas, 40 years old in 1945, led the AL in games that year and went 8-7 with a 2.35 ERA (145 ERA+). He pitched just one more season after that, retiring with a 21-22 record and a 2.45 ERA (140 ERA+). In more modern terms, Berry was a slightly inferior version of Akinori Otsuka.

June 8, 1947: Washington Senators (1) at Chicago White Sox (0), 18 innings

Box score

                      IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc
Walt Masterson, Was 16.0 6 0  0  0  6  7 111
Frank Papish, ChA   13.0 5 0  0  0  4  3  96

This was the first game of a doubleheader. The Senators eventually won when catcher Al Evans led off with a triple against reliever Earl Harrist and scored on a Sherry Robertson sacrifice fly, making a winner of Early Wynn, who had relieved Masterson.

According to the New York Times account, this marked the fourth 18-inning 1-0 game in baseball history. It had happened once in 1882, once in 1918 (with the Senators edging the White Sox in that one as well), and once in 1933.

The White Sox, who would win the second game of the doubleheader, had their chances in the opener. In the 16th inning, they loaded the bases against Masterson (who walked two batters in the frame) before Bob Kennedy flied to center to end the threat.

The game took place on what was hailed as Luke Appling Day. In a jarring sign of how baseball has changed over the years, between games, Appling was presented with an automobile "purchased through the donations of fans."

Masterson, who served in World War II, enjoyed his finest season in 1947. While playing for a miserable Senators team, he went 12-16 with a 3.13 ERA (119 ERA+) and made his second straight AL All-Star team.

In June 1949, Masterson was traded to the Red Sox. While in Boston, he apparently was taught to throw a slider... by Ted Williams. Masterson's career ended in 1956. Over parts of 14 seasons, he went 78-100 with a 4.15 ERA (97 ERA+).

Papish had a far shorter stay in the big leagues. The southpaw from Colorado first came up with the White Sox in '45. Already 27 years old, he started and relieved that season, as he would throughout his six-year career. Papish broke double digits in wins in 1947, the only time he would do so, sporting a 12-12 record and a 3.26 ERA (112 ERA+). He was sort of the John Henry Johnson or Ray Fontenot of his day, finishing his career 26-29 with a 3.48 ERA (106 ERA+).

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Notes from the Arizona Fall League

Geoff Young — 2010-11-17T08:16:15+00:00

I managed to take in a couple of Arizona Fall League games on Saturday. With the caveats that I am not a scout and that any given player may perform better or worse than he normally does in an individual game, here are one man's observations from the Valley of the Sun on this particular day.

Mesa Solar Sox at Peoria Javelinas

A $6 ticket gets you in the ballpark. With an announced attendance of 336, you sit wherever you want. It's not a bad way to spend a November afternoon. (Box score | Solar Sox stats | Javelinas stats)

Both starting pitchers struggled with their command. Mesa left-hander Robert Carson (Mets) went to three-ball counts on 6 of the 13 batters he faced. Peoria right-hander Eammon Portice (Red Sox) did the same on 6 of 15 batters. The relievers weren't any better. Give the hitters some credit, but not too much.

When people complain that baseball is boring, they are talking about games like this one. No pace, no flow. Everything takes more effort than it should.

Josh Harrison of the Mesa Solar Sox ducks away from a pitch in a November 13, 2010, contest against the Peoria Javelinas at Peoria.

Mesa's leadoff hitter in this game, Josh Harrison (Pirates), is a short but stocky second baseman. Kind of Ray Durham-esque. Harrison worked the count, made solid contact, and was very aggressive on the bases. He stole two bases, including third after a double to deep left in the fourth inning. (He scored when the catcher threw the ball away.)

Shortstop Andrew Romine (Angels) batted second and hit two doubles. Both were more a matter of placement than power.

Third baseman Josh Vitters (Cubs) didn't do anything remarkable, but he made solid contact in all six trips to the plate. He also stole two bases.

First baseman Matt Rizzotti (Phillies) is huge (6'5", 235 lbs) and patient. He drew four walks and struck out on a 3-2 pitch in his other plate appearance. He saw 26 pitches in the game: 19 balls, seven strikes.

Right fielder Andrew Lambo (Pirates) hit the ball hard several times. He singled twice but also drove two line drives deep to center field for outs.

Right-hander Chris Carpenter (Cubs) worked the fourth inning. His final line was mediocre but he was the only pitcher on either side with eye-popping stuff. His fastball was audible on hitting the catcher's mitt and he backed it up with a sharp slider that made Nate Tenbrink (Mariners) look horrible.

For the Javelinas, pitcher turned right fielder Adam Loewen (Blue Jays) didn't look completely lost at the plate; neither did he do anything to distinguish himself. He's a longshot to follow in Rick Ankiel's footsteps but it's hard not to root for a guy like that.

First baseman Mike McDade (Blue Jays) is built like Prince Fielder (6'1", 260 lbs). He singled twice and tripled off the wall in left-center that center fielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis (Mets) lost in the sun. It was a special moment, because McDade probably will never hit another triple in his life.

Jason Kipnis of the Peoria Javelinas strokes a double down the left field line in a Nov. 13, 2010, contest against the Mesa Solar Sox at Peoria.

Second baseman Jason Kipnis (Indians) put on a show. There were two afternoon games on Saturday, with the choices being one in Surprise (where Bryce Harper's team was playing) or one in Peoria (where Dustin Ackley's team was playing). Ackley is closer to the big leagues and is destroying the AFL, so I chose Peoria.

Naturally, he sat.

Kipnis got the call instead and went 4-for-4 with two doubles. He singled up the middle on an 0-2 pitch in the first, doubled to deep right-center on a 3-2 pitch in the fourth, grounded a double just inside the third base line in the sixth and lined a sharp single to left in the seventh. He appeared to have a plan at the plate and the ability to excute it.

Kipnis also played a passable second base. He was charged with an error when his flip to shortstop pulled Jose Iglesias (Red Sox) off the bag in the seventh. Two innings later, his team clinging to an 8-7 lead, he made a terrific back-handed stop on a ball off the bat of Vitters with the bases loaded and fired a strike to Iglesias to end the game. If the Padres don't yet regret failing to sign him in 2008, they will.

Peoria Saguaros vs Phoenix Desert Dogs at Glendale

The facility at Camelback Ranch Glendale is gorgeous but still has that factory showroom ambiance that time should fix.

The nightcap took place at the new (opened March 2009) Glendale facility that the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago White Sox now call their spring home. The ballpark is pristine, if lacking in the character that comes from having been inhabited for a fair amount of time and stories being told.

This game boasted a crowd of 865. A guy could get lost. (Box score | Saguaros stats | Desert Dogs stats)

It was announced beforehand that in order to protect the available pitchers, the contest would end after seven innings regardless of score.

Peoria center fielder Ben Revere (Twins) led off with a first-pitch check-swing tapper in front of home plate. He saw eight pitches in three trips to the plate and never hit the ball out of the infield.

Shortstop Eduardo Escobar (White Sox) didn't do anything at the plate but looked good in the field. No single play stood out; he just seemed to get to grounders without exerting much effort. You'd look up and the play was done. Then you'd look back at where he started and think, huh.

Second baseman Kristopher Negron (Reds), batting fifth, crushed a homer to left-center to lead off the fifth. The man following him in the lineup, designated hitter Chris Parmelee (Twins), drove a ball 380 feet to the left field wall in the second.

No one else did much. That's what happens when your team loses, 8-1.

For the Desert Dogs, center fielder Trayvon Robinson (Dodgers) had a different approach to leading off. He drew a bases-loaded walk and stole second in his first trip. He later doubled and singled.

The heart of the Phoenix order did damage. Left fielder Jerry Sands (Dodgers), batting third, homered over the 410-foot sign in center field in the first. The cleanup hitter, first baseman Stephen Parker (A's), doubled to deep left-center in the third and homered in the same general vicinity three innings later.

Sons of former big leaguers? Sure, they were there. Third baseman Ivan DeJesus Jr. (Dodgers) and catcher Matt Wallach (Dodgers) each drew a walk. Wallach also knocked a broken-bat double over the first baseman's head in the sixth that looks better in the box score than it did in real life.

On the pitching front, sidewinding right-hander Cory Gearrin (Braves) pitched well. He served up the homer to Negron but then retired six of the final seven batters he faced, including four via strikeout. Gearrin got Escobar to chase a particularly nasty slider down and in in the sixth.

Concluding thoughts

If you ever find yourself needing a baseball fix in November and it's at all feasible for you to do so, head out to the AFL. It's cheap, it's fun (even when the game drags a little, you're still at a ballpark), and you may be able to say that you saw the next big thing before most folks had heard of him. Not everyone will pan out, but you never know when you are watching future greatness.

The AFL has been in continuous operation since 1992 and has its own Hall of Fame that boasts an impressive collection of big-league stars. Had you been in Phoenix in any given November, you could have gotten a sneak peak at these players, in an intimate environment, before they became household names.

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