The Hardball Times -- Harry Pavlidis

Five questions: New York Mets

Harry Pavlidis — 2012-03-07T09:03:15+00:00

The Metropolitans will be celebrating their 50th anniversary in 2012. Jose Reyes has joined the ~~carnival~~ Miami Marlins. The National League East division didn't get any easier, so it may not be much of a party in Flushing. Here are a few things that are worth pondering as we head into the new season.

Will the new wall make a noticeable difference?

It's sure gonna look different. The Mets pulled in the outfield walls in a few places without changing the corner or dead-center distances. The wall has been lowered, too, so Met fans may be looking forward to a little more offense this season. This is a tale best told in pictures and, frankly, with as little speculation as possible.

Cutting the power alleys down to size is one thing, but cutting those fences down at the same time makes things interesting, at least on the surface. This overhead shot shows the basics—no more gimmicky gaps in right and center and a shaved down left-field. It comes from a Met's press release (via SBNation).

You've got a new row of seats in left and a new bar area in right. This is real space not some subtle reshaping of the outfield.

It will be nice to get a year of home run data from Hit Tracker and then map that back to the old layout. See you in a few months...but the purpose of these changes is to make the park more of a hitter-friendly place, obviously. As happy as this will make the hitters, the pitchers will surely be answering a different tone of question from the beat writers in the their postgame remarks.

Will Santana's shoulder cooperate?

Starting with the thought of Johan Santana and his recovery from a shoulder capsule injury, I asked Will Carroll and Dan Wade for names of other pitchers who had such an issue. Rich Harden, Mark Prior and Chris Carpenter were on my mind, and Carroll and Wade found quite a few from the last five years.

Rich Harden, Johan Santana, Chris Young, John Maine, Pedro Feliciano, Dallas Braden, Kelvim Escobar, Scott Bittle, Chien-Ming Wang, Mark Prior

Wade noticed what you may be noticing—that's a lot of (ex-)Mets. The severity of these injuries varies, from Maine's nasty bone spur up to the level of Prior and Carpenter, a procedure that involves things like winding fixed parts around the collar bone. So we have to give it a little more thought when picking a comp for Santana.

Carpenter, who injured his capsule in 2002, has recovered from that and subsequent Tommy John surgery. Prior has struggled, surfaced last year and found his way into a couple minor league games before non-arm injuries derailed him. Escobar hasn't pitched for a big-league organization (if any) since he was hurt in 2009. Harden, Braden, Felicia and Young are freshly injured. Bittle and Wang are at various stages of their comebacks, with the latter being, in Wade's estimate, the best comp for Santana.

Folks, those names in that list up there are in roughly chronological order. Don't count on Santana in 2012, if history tells us anything. Meanwhile, he is prepping as if he'll start the season on time. So don't count on history, if Santana's rehab tells us anything.

Is this David Wright's last year in Queens?

The Mets' star third baseman has been somewhat star-crossed. From his early trials of the next-gen batting helmet to a stress fracture in his back, he's heading into his age-29 season with two of his last three seasons being curtailed. The Mets have a big decision to make when the season ends, too.

Wright's contract is running out, and 2013 is either $1 million buyout or a $16 million team option. Wright hits well when healthy, and the adjusted walls could help his production at home this year. But I can't find a defensive metric that likes him (outside of the Fan Scouting Report, which isn't exactly glowing and put him as below average in 2011 for the first time in three years). Plus, the Mets are short on money.

So, we have a star player who has possibly peaked at the plate and may need to make a move across the diamond in the next year or two. Given the current situation on that side, one starts to wonder if Wright is jettisoned before the trade deadline.

Who gets the relief innings?

Short answer: the new guys.

The Mets bullpen began a transformation when Francisco Rodriguez was sent to the Brewers. In December, the transformation was completed. Three veteran relievers moved into the back of the bullpen, two via free-agent signings.

Mets 2011 innings leaders: relief pitchers

Pedro Beato
Bobby Parnell
D.J. Carrasco
Manny Acosta
Jason Isringhausen
Francisco Rodriguez*
Ryota Igarashi
Tim Byrdak**

* finished season with Milwaukee
** led team in games pitched

Mets 2012 projected innings leaders: relief pitchers (from THT Forecasts)

Parnell
Jon Rauch
Ramon Ramirez
Frank Francisco
Acosta
Byrdak
Carrasco
Beato

Weakened by Bernie—a question of degree

The 2012 Mets are already going to be arount $50 million cheaper than the 2011 Mets. As you probably know, the Wilpons, majority owners of the Mets, were hurt badly by the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme. Despite public claims to the contrary, this is impacting the Mets. Howard Megdal, of LoHud.com, wrote a book on the subject and has subsequently found himself on the wrong side of the Wilpons. Megdal is a quality journalist and has not stopped working the story.

As discussed in Megdal's book, the Wilpons ownership stake is held by Sterling Partners. Of the suite of Mets properties involved (team, ballpark and SNY network), only the broadcasting is profitable. Selling the network is not a viable option despite it's obvious appeal. Due to structuring of various debts, selling SNY would not put money back in the team's coffers.

So, sell a share of the unprofitable team to raise cash! Well, a deal to bring in a minority partner fell apart when Fred Wilpon realized he'd eventually lose control of the team he has owned since 1980. It's complicated, so read the book.

To summarize the latest news, the Wilpons are still seeking minority owners, but it's not likely that will boost payroll for the team. There are major debts that come due in 2014, a complex lawsuit that will determine how much money Sterling has to pay to Madoff victims, and the added drama of conflicting public statements from Fred Wilpon (often within the same interview). There's not much reason to expect this saga to be resolved anytime soon.

Meanwhile, Sandy Alderson is trying to get the organization on track. Happy 50th, Mets!

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We will not call this “Decisions brewing”

Harry Pavlidis — 2011-12-01T09:26:15+00:00

One of a series on dilemmas facing each major league teams this winter.

As we turn the page into the final month of 2011, the hot stove is heating up. The offseason's catalyst was new collective bargaining agreement, including new restrictions on draft bonuses and reduced costs for signing certain types of free agents.

The Brewers will look to defend their division title in 2012, and new CBA or not, this was destined to be a big offseason in Milwaukee. And not just because the general managers gathered for meetings there in November.

Starting pitching isn't going to be the a winter topic—the entire rotation is back for 2012. The starting outfield of Corey Hart, Nyjer Morgan and Ryan Braun will take up their same positions. Closer Jon Axford will anchor the bullpen, though the rest of the group is squishy. The other end of the battery should be unchanged, with Jonathan Lucroy being backed up by George Kottaras. There could be a new infield built around Rickie Weeks.

Losing Prince's power generation skills

Braun is already the franchise player, with a long-term contract and his MVP trophy tucked away. The first and most obvious question for Milwaukee is what to do with the other (erstwhile?) face of their franchise, slugging first baseman Prince Fielder. The second generation basher is on the market and looking for a long-term deal involving big dollars. With the Red Sox and Yankees already invested heavily at the position, it's the heavy guy and Albert Pujols looking for similar deals at the same time.

While that sounds like an opening, the Brewers are hoping to extend both Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, so they won't exactly be flush with cash if they make those deals. Prince's departure seemed a foregone conclusion by the time the 2011 playoffs were under way, so even a tight market for big contract first basemen is probably not enough to make a difference.

If Prince is gone, is it Mat Gamel's time? Casey McGehee fell out of favor (the hallucination-generating 100 RBI season has worn off) and Jerry Hairston Jr. is not an everyday player at a power position. At the moment, he's still a free agent and doesn't look like he'll be a holdover. Right now, it's Taylor Green, McGehee and Gamel for the corners. And... Yuni at short? He's a free agent, but the Brewers already upgraded shortstop before 2011... yes, Yuniesky Betancourt was actually a step up, which is really an indictment of Alcides Escobar. The Brewers did talk to Jimmy Rollins and even offered a deal to Clint Barmes, who ended up signing with Pittsburgh instead.

Going with guys in the system doesn't seem to be the way to go, at least not for a balanced approach. Taylor Green and Gamel at the infield corners feels more like "Four-A" than 4 WAR. Keeping McGehee around and picking up another right-handed bat who can play first and/or third would give the Brewers a platoon situation that would be envied by … very few, actually.

There's at least the possibility that the Brewers can limp through 2012 without any new investment in a corner infielder. You can't say the same thing about their shortstop situation, even though Yuni is open to returning. With nothing in the farm system (which was depleted—Brett Lawrie, et al.—to beef up the rotation), it's off to the free agent market for Doug Melvin and staff.

There's no doubt Melvin is active in the shortstop market. The Brewers have met with the agents for Rollins, Barmes and even Jose Reyes. While Barmes drew an offer, Rollins and Reyes are not likely targets. The colder it gets, the more likely a Yuni reunion is in order.

The Brewers do have free agent options at the corners. Aramis Ramirez is the biggest name on the third base side. He'd provide plenty of offense, but he's looking for three years and is going to get it. Given the market, even with his declining skills and possible trip across the diamond, demand is not lacking. Talking about (former) Cubs, Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena were both offered arbitration. Both are Type B, so it won't cost the Brewers a pick to pry them away from Pittsburgh or Chicago, respectively. Both have until Dec. 7 to accept or decline the offers, so it's possible there won't be any opportunity to bid on their services at all.

Ramirez was also offered arbitration, but the odds of him accepting are too small to contemplate. Pena and Lee (more so the former) are likely to decline. If either Lee or Pena hit the market, the Brewers will have a chance to gamble on a veteran at first.

The Brewers can stay in-house or go for cheap stop-gap measures (Lyle Overbay, Kevin Kouzmanoff) that don't seem much more attractive than the hand they currently hold. One benefit of staying in-house is keeping cash on hand for the 2012-2013 hot stove. Bringing back Hairston and Yuni for a season would also seem reasonable, but it seems like two-year deals are the norm in the current market.

So, welcome to December. The Brewers don't know what their infield will look like, the status quo is kinda scary and there are no obvious candidates.

Where's that confounded bridge?

The Milwaukee bullpen was overhauled before and during 2011, but now it's a big gap from Kameron Loe to Jon Axford. Given the need to spend money at three infield spots, the Brewers front office will need to be creative once again, but frugal, in building the bridge to Axford. This is an annual ~~ordeal~~ task for most clubs, usually an interesting and surprising market to follow.

Yovani Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson. Yadda yadda yadda. Axford.

The 2011 yadda squad's main members were Takashi Saito (could be back), Francisco Rodriguez (gone), LaTroy Hawkins (probably gone), Marco Estrada (still under contract), and even Sergio Mitre (gone) and Tim Dillard (still under contract and under-handed). Of course, there was the middle inning work of the aforementioned Mr. Loe.

The Brewers are talking to Saito, but otherwise it's the motley crew and any farmhands who emerge. Michael Fiers could be big league ready. He's been worked as a starter and closer coming up, and he's starting this winter for Caracas in the Venezuelan Winter League, so it's even possible he bumps Narveson to the bullpen. Baseball America named righty Wily Peralta the organization's top prospect this year, but he's probably a half season away, if not more. He's more likely to bump Narveson than Fiers is, albeit further down the line.

If Saito re-signs and Fiers contributes in some form, the Brewers pitching staff should round out "good enough" to compete. Outfield, catching, all set. But that infield. How will that play? Will it be Rickie and the Weaks?

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Brewer NLDS Preview

Harry Pavlidis — 2011-09-27T05:04:15+00:00

After a pair of third place finishes under manager Ken Macha, the Milwaukee Brewers reset heading into 2011 with a new manager and some new arms. Sub-.500 wasn't going to cut it this time around.

Increased expectations? No problem.

An impressive bunch

The Brew Crew were one of four preseason favorites in a bunched up National League Central. As the 2011 season progressed, rookie manager Ron Roenicke was enjoying his big three on the mound and in his line-up. One of those three, Prince Fielder, was in his contract year—you can see the Brewers revving up for what could be their last shot with the big man at first.

With Ryan Braun having an MVP-type year the Brewers were one of the top offensive teams in the National League. Able to survive losing Rickie Weeks for a stretch, and a dismal season from Casey McGehee, the Brewers have established themselves as a dangerous offense. Corey Hart's return to good health is almost lost in the commotion, and gives the club a fourth quality bat that can be deployed just about anywhere in the line-up.

The offseason was marked not just by the hiring of a new manager, but the flushing of the farm system to acquire Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. Both enjoyed the move from the American League and certainly did a fine job replacing Manny Parra and Dave Bush.

Let's say that again. Parra and Bush out. Greinke and Marcum in. And toss out a Chris Capuano on the exhale. The Brewers got rid of two fringe major leaguers and acquired two front-end starters. Oh my.

Jon Axford is still the closer, despite Takashi Saito's offseason signing and the deadline acquisition off Francisco Rodriguez raising some questions (particularly the latter). Saito has only had marginal impact on the bullpen (effective but in limited use) K-Rod has only grumbled a little bit about his set-up role, LaTroy Hawkins has been the good Hawkins. Kameron Loe has been effective in the middle innings, giving the Brewers a fairly deep bullpen.

The group has put up a 96 percent save percentage, with Axford blowing just two and the middle guys blowing another 17 (mostly hold opportunities that were fumbled). Loe has had the most troubles, but blown saves/holds are easier to recover from when they're in the sixth inning.

Triple threat

How good is this offense? Eight players have enough plate appearances to qualify for consideration. Five have an OPS+ over 100, and it's not even close (167, 158, 135, 122, 112). Two of the sub-par performers are actually not sub-par—cather Joathan Lucroy and shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt are not expected to carry the load on offense. Actually, Lucroy (90) and his back-up, George Kottaras (108), provided plenty of punch.

Bringing up the rear, with a dismal OPS+ of 71, is McGehee. Yuni is at 75, so, well, there you go. Roenicke is already hinting at replacing McGehee at third for the postseason. Jerry Hairston, Jr. is a likely choice, along with light-hitting Craig Counsell. The Brewers better hope McGehee finds his swing. What ever the case may be, if there's a hole in the line-up it's at the hot corner.

As we know, the Brewers are no longer a one-dimensional team. The 2010 version of their defense ranked near the bottom in DER (29) and Total Zone (28) and in the middle of the pack in UZR (16). With Yuni replacing Alcides Escobar at short and Nyjer Morgan taking most of the center field work away from Carlos Gomez, the 2011 edition of the Brew Crew defense suddenly a different beast.

To say they've improved is an understatement. The 2011 Brewers rank eighth in both UZR and Total Zone and have improved to 12th overall in DER. Not outstanding, but enough to give the pitching a boost. The Brewers upgraded staff combined with their improved defense for another impressive turnaround.

The bump in defense is reflected by a big drop in team ERA. This exceeds the FIP/xFIP/tERA/SIERA improvements from 2010 to 2011, but those metrics tell the same story (source). To top it all off, the improvements—about a full run in ERA and a half to two-thirds a run in the others—are roughly the same for both the rotation and the bullpen.

Deep offense, three legitimate front-end starters, an above-average defense and a shutdown bullpen. That should play in October.

Have you ever been experienced?

Roenicke may be a rookie manager, but he spent the last decade working for the Angels, most recently a five-season stint as Mike Scioscia's bench coach. He also played in the 1984 World Series, but, as this author is a Cub fan, I'm not allowed to talk about how he got there. The Brewer skipper has a ring from his days coaching third with the Angels and five more postseason trips (including three as the bench coach). It will be his first calling the shots, but it's hard to call Roenicke completely green when he comes to guiding the ship through October waters.

The 2008 Brewers snagged the NL Wild Card, only to lose in the opening round. Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Hart were all part of that team. Hairston went all the way with the 2009 Yankees. Counsell has two rings from his days in Florida and Arizona and was with the 2008 Brewer team. Pinch-hitter Mark Kotsay will be making his third trip to the postseason and is looking for his first World Series trip. Carlos Gomez has a trip as a Twin under his belt. Depending on what happens at third base, Roenicke may run out a line-up with five positions manned by players who have been there before.

The pitching staff is less experienced, particularly in the rotation. Gallardo made one start and one relief appearance in 2008 and Wolf got a pair for the Dodgers in 2009. Greinke and Marcum have never faced the glare of October, but this is what they signed-up for. K-Rod has been to five prior playoffs, including the 2002 Angels championship with Roenicke on the coaching staff. LaTroy Hawkins and Takashi Saito will be making their fourth trips to the postseason, but the rest of the bunch is untested, including closer Jon Axford. Assuming the starters carry their load, the Brewers will be able to avoid their middle relievers and get the ball to their most effective and experienced bunch. Really, this is nothing unique in terms of middle relief avoidance.

In a nutshell, the Brew Crew has a productive offense that's core is making their second postseason trip together. The bullpen has a veteran presence but the postseason experience in the rotation is thin. One could easily dismiss the inexperience of the starting pitching in light of the sheer quality of the group.

NLDS outlook

Barring a pitching implosion, the Brewers lone weakness appears to be third base. Every flaw is exposed in the post-season, but it's hard to view McGehee's plight as an Achilles heel. Whether it's Atlanta or Arizona, the Brewers should be favored in the opening round. Given their home/road splits, the Brewers would be well-served if they can wrap up home field advantage heading into the short opening series.

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NL Central: Brew Crew cruising

Harry Pavlidis — 2011-08-29T10:05:15+00:00

Sizzle. Fizzle. The two phases of play in the 2011 National League Central division.

What was expected to be a three-team race turned into four. And then—in the blink of an eye—it was over.

The last time we checked in, the fading Reds were surprisingly going to the second division while the Pirates were leading the race.

The sizzling race turned to fizzling in a matter of days. The Pirates and the Cardinals started following the Reds while the Brewers took off.

Checking our crystal ball

Here at THT, we can proudly say we saw some of this coming. THT Forecasts were predicting (around July 18) the following winning percentages for the rest of the season:

Reds      .573
Cardinals .529
Brewers   .522
Pirates   .371
Cubs      .492
Astros    .426

And actual records since our last check-in (through August 27):

Reds      .526 (-.047)
Cardinals .487 (-.042)
Brewers   .769 (+.247)
Pirates   .350 (-.021)
Cubs      .500 (+.008)
Astros    .308 (-.118)

The number in parentheses is how far off the actual records are from the projected ones back a couple weeks ahead of the non-waiver trading deadline.

The Brewers have gone nuts, blowing away expectations. The Reds and the Cardinals both fell short of the forecast (and out of the race), while the Bucs were just about as bad as expected. The Cubs matched expectations better than any of the six, while the woeful Astros have actually gone well below their forecast.

We were projecting the rest of the season, so these teams all have a chance to move closer to, or further away from, these projections as we move into and through September.

Passing the Bucs

The Pirates only went as far as their pitching staff could take them. Granted, that was first place in early August, but the finish line is a little more down the road. The Pirates may have hit the wall shortly after their peak, but the taste of success should make 2012 the most highly anticipated season in their recent history.

During an August series with the Cubs, both the Chicago radio and TV broadcast teams made the same observation (same press notes?)—that the Bucs had worked their staff past its normal limit.

We'll look at this problem a little more closely after the season (in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2012, coming this fall), but for now the situation can be summarized by a brief review of their 2011 innings leaders (through August 28) and those same pitchers' 2010 workload. Numbers include minor and major league totals.

Paul Maholm 162.1 (185.1)
Kevin Correia 154.0 (145.0)
Jeff Karstens 152.0 (138.2)
James McDonald 145.0 (71.2)
Charlie Morton 144.0 (159.2)

Correia almost reached 200 innings as a Padre in 2009, and Maholm's 2010 workload was typical for the veteran. Morton's lack of a full major league season is important, but he hasn't reached his red zone by any means. McDonald hasn't worked this much since the low minors, and Karstens has pushed past anything he's racked up in the last five plus years.

Whether it be by exposure to big league hitters or by workload alone, three out of five Pirate starters have gone into new territory, and Correia is on the DL.

Change in Chicago

The Cubs began their second annual late-season surge under Mike Quade. The 2011 edition wasn't so much of a surge, though, and it doesn't appear to be sustainable into September.

The Chicago pitching staff is still not intact, with Andrew Cashner's return to the 2012 rotation being predicated on staying healthy in the September bullpen and getting stretched out in the Arizona Fall League. Meanwhile, he rehabs in the Southern League, and the 2011 rotation is at three-fifths strength—which is essentially the level it's been since early April when both Cashner and Randy Wells hit the DL.

The second regular (well...) pitcher who has gone absent, thereby keeping Casey Coleman and Rodrigo Lopez around, is none other than the currently suspended Carlos Zambrano. You may have heard about that. And the Jim Hendry firing. The Cubs have quietly commenced a GM search, and there has been no news on Big Z as both parties await the settling of their grievance.

With Hendry out and Zambrano likely gone, what remains to be seen is how the many other changes are coming for the Cubs. Will Quade be back? Will Aramis Ramirez's option be picked up? Will Ryan Dempster exercise his? Will the high-priced, highly-touted 2011 draft class work out? At least we can address the first few topics this winter. While there is hope on the North Side, but the present and near future look rough.

Strong brew

Talking about rough, batting against the Brewers is no treat. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder have the well-deserved reputation as a solid offensive duo, enough to keep the offense chugging without the injured Rickie Weeks.

But it's the pitching staff that has pulled this team away from the pack of contenders they were with in July. Adding Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke to the front of their rotation this offseason not only gave them a great one-two punch, it turned Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf into a formidable three-four pair.

Fifth man Chris Narveson had a strong first half but hasn't been terribly impressive of late. To make matters worse, he cut his hand fixing his glove and ended up on the DL. He's also spent some time (when off-days allowed) in the bullpen since being reactivated. I think we know who is going to be out of the playoff rotation already.

The Brew Crew looks set in the late innings, too. Takashi Saito (84 career saves), Francisco Rodriguez (291) and John Axford (65) all have big league closer credentials of some form. Heck, K-Rod reworked his contract so the Brewers could work him as a set-up guy without triggering his ultra-expensive 2012 option.

LaTroy Hawkins (87) is far removed from his days as a closer and doesn't strike batters out enough to merit high leverage work, but he's more than adequate as a middle relief and occasional set-up option.

They still have time to blow this thing, but the pitching looks too deep, and Weeks could be back in a just a few, um...weeks.

Small bites

Did you hear about Fielder's walk-up music? Apparently the big man went to the plate three times with three different songs about money in one game. Red herring or the first sign of an extension for Prince?

Houston's Jordan Lyles is picking up minor league innings in relief. Watching their Oklahoma City affiliate play is the best way to stay in touch with recognizable players in that organization.

Hey, Aroldis Chapman is good again. He was lights out in July but leveled off a bit in August. Still, from July 18 to August 26, the Cuban southpaw struck out 27 batters in 17 innings of work. That makes his seven walks seem like no big deal (correctly). Opponents have managed just eight singles and one double against him (during the same period ).

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Surprise central

Harry Pavlidis — 2011-07-18T09:03:15+00:00

The NL Central has—for the most part—gone as expected. It has also been the scene of one of the biggest (and most enjoyable) surprises of the baseball season.

It was supposed to be a three-team race. The Reds, Brewers and Cardinals all stood apart from the rest of the division, but not each other. There was a clear favorite for the fourth spot, but they weren't expected to be in contention.

That team, of course, was the Cubs. The prevailing thought this spring was reflected well in the pre-season picks by THT staffers. Milwaukee and Cincinnati were co-favorites, with St. Louis tucked into third (but not far behind). The consensus pegged the Pirates behind the Cubs in fifth place with the Astros in the anchor slot.

But that's not quite what happened.

There's a three-team race with a fourth club in the hunt. But No. 4 is the Reds (who are currently below .500) and the virtual tie up top includes the Pirates. The Cubs are nowhere to be seen, except over the horizon from where the Astros stand.

This was not expected. Pittsburgh had a sub-par offense and cellar-dwelling pitching and defense in 2010. The hitting has improved, but the pitching and defense have turned things around.

The Pirates are such a surprise, the rest-of-season projections from THT Forecasts anticipate the Pirates tanking.This seems unlikely, as that would require the Astros out-playing them. While that seems nearly impossible, those projections do hint at the possibility that the 2011 Pirates won't look quite so good when all is said and done.

NL Central standings
Actual records, expected/Pythagorean record, division record, THT "rest-of-way" projection, RoW record that is required to meet that projection.

Tm     W  L pythWL vCent    THT   RoW
STL   50 44  50-44 19-15  86-76 36-32
MIL   50 45  46-49 20-17  85-77 35-32
PIT   48 44  47-45 21-13  74-88 26-44
CIN   46 48  50-44 27-20  85-77 39-29
CHC   38 57  38-57 12-24  71-91 33-34
HOU   31 63  36-58 15-25 60-102 29-39

Is Pittsburgh playing over its head? Or is this a team that will stay in the thick of it?

In our last look at the NL Central, the Pirates were already the surprise of the division. They've come up in the standings since early June, so the final segment of the season gives a great baseball city a chance to get behind its team.

Pitching and defense will remain the key for Pittsburgh. Their team wOBA is the lowest in the division (.303), while the Cardinals, Reds and Brewers occupy the top spots in the entire National League (.332, .324 and .324, respectively). Disadvantage, Pittsburgh.

On defense, the Reds have the edge across the league in both Fielding Runs (24.9) and defensive efficiency (.722). The Pirates are second-best among Central teams and in the top five in the league (9.6, .716). The Cardinals and Brewers are harder to peg down (FR and DER don't agree on either), but they're a step below the Pirates—at least.

Hey, why are the Reds below .500? Pitching.

The Reds and Astros have the lowest-ranked pitching staffs by both Fangraphs WAR and Baseball Prospectus VORP. The Reds have used 10 different starting pitchers so far, and Aroldis Chapman has not been the dominating force many expected. Not even in Triple-A. Bronson Arroyo and Edinson Volquez have posted numbers that are barely acceptable for a fifth or sixth starter.

The Cardinals and Pirates have fared better than the Reds, but not by much. Both are in the lower rungs of National League pitching staffs. The Brewers have been the class of the Central with four solid starters (plus Randy Wolf). Shaun Marcum's health could derail things, but the addition of Francisco Rodriguez gives John Axford some help. K-Rod's vesting option has been waived, so the closer controversy could be a second fly in the ~~ointment~~ beer.

The Pirates have one of the better ERAs in the league, but both FIP and xFIP slide them to the bottom. So the key for the Pirates is better described as adequate pitching bolstered by a strong defense. They've had a busy disabled list (and used somewhere around 194 different catchers), so more runs may take the pressure off the defense if and when Jose Tabata and Pedro Alvarez return and produce. Until then, it's Andrew McCutchen and a supporting cast.

The Forecast-based second half still seems pessimistic, but there are a few red flags in play for Pittsburgh. The Reds can hope for some improvement via regression for at least two of their frontline pitchers, so there will be pressure on the upstarts from behind. It should be an entertaining summer, and we should all expect the unexpected enjoy of a four-team race.

PITCH-f/x batting

It's time to turn the tables and look at things from the batting side. Here's how the NL Central offenses measure up.

Swing rate
Astros (.468), Cubs (.466), Brewers (.455), Reds (.452), Cardinals (.450), Pirates (.449)

Called ball-to-called strike ratio
Cardinals (2.3), Reds (2.1), 4-way tie (2.0)

Whiff rate
Cubs (.221), Reds (.220), Astros (.218), Brewers (.216), Pirates (.216), Cardinals (.194)

The Cardinals are patient and discerning. The Pirates are also patient, but take more strikes. The Cubs and the Astros have a bad combination of free swingers who catch a lot of air. The Reds are all right, but they have the lowest groundball rate (44 percent) by 2 percentage points and the highest pop-up rate (7.5 percent) by about 1 point. I'm sure they'd trade the infield flies for worm burners, all else being equal.

Favorite pitch
Cubs: cutters (.543 swing rate)

Change-ups are thrown in counts that see higher swing rates, but the Cubs and Astros (sliders) swing more at something other than a change. Useless fact of the day candidate?

Most spit-upon pitch
Cardinals: curves (.364 swing rate)

Every team lays off the curve, but the patient Redbirds take it to the extreme.

Whiff and crush. Or not.
{exp:list_maker}The Cubs miss a lot of curves (.335 whiff rate, second in the division) but hit them the hardest (.577 SLGCON leads by a long shot).
The Reds handle changes the same way, with a division-high mark in whiffs (.311) and SLGCON (.545).
The Brewers own the cutter, with a division low .193 whiff and division high .553 SLGCON.
The Cardinals own the slider, with a division low .308 whiff and division high .589 SLGCON.
The Astros are getting beat by fastballs, whiffing the most (.179) and SLGCON-ing the least (.501).
The Pirates don't miss too many curves (league best .243 whiff) but do nothing with them (.351 SLGCON, worst of any NL Central team against any pitch). {/exp:list_maker}

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Hot Holland

Harry Pavlidis — 2011-07-15T16:16:15+00:00

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2011 Futures Game PITCHf/x

Harry Pavlidis — 2011-07-12T07:48:15+00:00

Ah, the joys of the Futures Game and PITCHf/x. When All-Star week arrives, the kids gather in the host park and play a game. With a handful of exceptions, it's like a sudden wave of sneak previews—a quick look at a guy you haven't seen before and may not see again for a couple years, if ever.

A total of 19 pitchers got in the game this year, including three guys who participated in 2010. One of those three also happens to be one of the two pitchers who actually has some big league experience. A fifth PITCHf/x veteran has some Arizona Fall League data for comparison. So 14 newbies and five updates. Starting with the familiar...

I know you

The graphics below include all the PITCHf/x data available for the five updates. From left to right, spin movement (with gravity included and with a longer slice of the flight than you see in Gameday's numbers) color-coded by speed; spin movement color-coded by pitch type; pitch speed and spin direction color-coded by pitch type. Click to enlarge.

Henderson Alvarez

Alvarez participated in the 2010 Futures Game in ~~Anaheim~~ ~~L.A.~~ Southern California. The Blue Jays prospect threw fastballs and sliders this year while he showed his slider and even some sinkers in 2010. What is possibly a noteworthy improvement in 2011 is a cleaned-up release point. Alvarez showed a tendency to drop his arm slot last year, but he was consistently on top this time around.

Jhan Marinez

Facing a single right-handed hitter, Marinez threw some heaters and sliders. If he had staying in to face a lefty, we may have seen Marinez throw a change-up. I'm wondering if we'd see him slide over a good 12 inches toward the first base side of the rubber like he did in 2010 with the Marlins.

Shelby Miller

This future Cardinal didn't break 95 mph at this Futures Game, although he did it last year. It looks like Miller threw some sinkers to left-handed hitters—he faced only a pair of righties in 2010—and we got to see his change-up. Across the two appearances Miller has allowed five balls in play, all grounders.

Brad Peacock

The Nationals sent Peacock to Arizona last fall, so this was a quick check-up on the 41st rounder from the 2007 draft. He's been outstanding in Double-A this years, sporting a nifty 5.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Like Miller, he didn't crack 95 in this outing but has shown 95+ in his previous PITCHf/x games.

Julio Teheran

One of the top prospects in baseball. A two-time spot-starter for the Braves. A Futures Game repeater. Seeing Teheran via PITCHf/x is no longer a cause for unusual excitement, but Teheran himself still is. He was the deserving starter for the World team this year after working the fourth inning in 2010.

Hello there

With these one-off PITCHf/x samples, it's a best-effort on sinker/fastball separation.

Jarred Cosart

The hard-throwing Phillie probably won't be rushed, but Cosart flashed a two-seam (possibly; marked as sinker) and four-seam fastball that can make some tongues wag.

Kyle Gibson

Gibson's velocity may be somewhat mundane relative to the rest of the field, but he had impressive sinking action on his two-seam (and primary) fastball. The Twins' top pick in 2009 is already 100 innings into his Triple-A career.

Matt Harvey

Harvey chose college over the Twins after being selected in the third round in 2007. The Mets made him their first pick in 2010, so that worked out. Harvey is in Double-A now and hopefully headed to the AFL in October. We only got three fastballs (were they sinkers?) from the last pitcher to get into the game on Sunday.

Liam Hendriks

Hendriks was signed by the Twins out of Australia. The Perth native is stingy with the walks and is probably throwing both two-seam sinkers and four-seam fastballs. Not eye-popping velocity, but above average (at least in this short stint) with movement and, apparently, in the zone? Sounds good.

Kelvin Herrera

Herrera has moved full-time into the bullpen and into a closer's role in 2011. The result? 10.2 strike outs and 1.2 walks per nine innings across two levels. This could be your next closer, Kansas City.

Carlos Martinez (Matias)

Matias/Martinez (his name has been, umm, updated since the Cardinals signed him) displayed an explosive fastball, 97 and 98 mph, and I believe some of them were two-seamers.

Matt Moore

Moore touched 99 a couple times—from the left side. I know a certain Cuban southpaw has made many forget just how rare that type of velocity is out of a left-handed pitcher, but that is awfully unusual and impressive. And I'm not 100 percent convinced they were (all) four-seamers. The Rays typically don't rush guys, but Moore could be hard to hold back.

James Paxton

Paxton was one of the top collegiate arms available in the 2009 draft when the Blue Jays took him as a supplemental pick. Failing to reach an agreement, Paxton opted to go back to Kentucky. Scott Boras was involved somewhere around this point, yadda yadda yadda, and the NCAA ruled Paxton ineligible to return. So it was off to Indy ball with a reputation as a tough sign. The Mariners scooped him up the fourth round in 2010, bringing the British Columbia native back to the Pacific Northwest.

Martin Perez

Perez is just 20 but is already in his second full season in the Texas League. He made his Double-A debut with five starts back in 2009 when he was just 18 years old. Perez cracked 95 in the Futures Game, including once with his sinker.

Drew Pomeranz

Talking about top-shelf college arms, the Indians made Pomeranz the fifth overall pick in 2010. He was touching 95 (barely) in the Futures Game, so he came pretty much as advertised. Big, left-handed, and most of the markings of a solid big league starter.

Tyler Skaggs

Skaggs started the game for the USA squad, which should tell you something about his reputation. And/or his parent team. He was a supplemental pick by the Angels in 2009 and was shipped to Arizona in the Dan Haren trade. Impressively, this Futures Game start came a few days ahead of his 20th birthday and he's not pitched above Advanced Single-A. Yet. He's been promoted to Double-A. He probably mixed some sinkers in with his fastball. One thing to ponder is that he seemed to drop his arm on all his off-speed pitches.

Tyler Thornburg

The Brewers' third-round pick from 2010 has worked his way up to the Florida League, which is about right for a well regarded 22-year old pitcher. Listed under six feet tall, he still hit 95 in his appearance. He gets comparisons with Tim Lincecum, and maybe there's a little bit of Freak in Thornburg's delivery, but I don't see the launch-off-the-rubber move that marks Lincecum.

Jacob Turner

Turner is a 6-foot-5 righty out of Mark Buehrle's hometown. The Tigers made him the ninth overall pick in 2009 right out of high school. He's pitching very well in Double-A, and he could be pushing for a rotation spot next spring.

Arodys Vizcaino

A Yankee signee, Vizcaino came to the Braves in the Javier Vazquez trade. He's moved up to Double-A after starting the season in Advanced Single-A. Assuming he stays in the rotation, he'll move slower than some of the other guys above. His workload has been limited by injury.

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Humber’s slider fascination

Harry Pavlidis — 2011-06-26T13:28:15+00:00

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NL Central: Mostly, the arms hold form

Harry Pavlidis — 2011-06-06T15:53:15+00:00

Once upon a time, a division battle was formed. The champs were setting up to withstand blows both left and right. The makers of ale added premium hops from Canada and Kansas City. A Bird's wing was clipped and a Ray was beamed to Chicago. By air or by sea, two were plotting a chart to the cellar.

The story has been blown off course at a few points, but the dust is starting to settle and the real stories of the 2011 National League Central are really not far off from what was teed up in March. We'll be checking in on the pitching staffs at this juncture; the bats will wait until our second check-up.

With Memorial Day and a third of a season behind us, the Pirates are near .500 and have the league's co-leader in pitching wins. The Cubs have put as much as 60 percent of their rotation on the disabled list and are charging backwards toward the Astros. The Cardinals have established themselves as division leaders without the services of their ace. The Brewers had to wait for their new stars to get healthy while the Reds got to fully explore the depth of their rotation stock.

Cardinals

Any season that looks to be a rough one for the Cardinals turns into a season in contention. They keep doing it, year after year,, and 2011 is no different, with the Redbirds in first place with a patchwork pitching staff. Adam Wainwright losing the season to Tommy John surgery would normally be a gut blow to any team's hope, but the Cardinals have the Midas touch of pitching coach Dave Duncan and a generally weak division on their side.

Wainwright's injury and the subsequent focus on the rotation turned out to be a distraction for Cardinal followers. The real issues were in the bullpen and took a couple of months to sort out. The Cardinals are actually on the low-end of relievers used (11), but on the high-end of closers used (seven guys in save situations, five in earnest).

Ryan Franklin was horrid, blowing four out of five saves before Tony LaRussa started cycling through his other relievers. Fernando Salas emerged as closer after Eduardo Sanchez, Mitchell Boggs and Trever Miller all seemingly were given a shot. Boggs is now being stretched out in Triple-A and is targeted for the rotation, perhaps this year.

Outside of a rain-induced start for Miguel Batista, the Cardinals got to June with five starters. When Kyle McClellan's impresive season was disrupted, Lance Lynn answered the call and made his major league debut.

The rotation is not in perfect shape without its ace, and moreso with McClellan's hip injury. When placed on the DL, the erstwhile relief pitcher was already within reach of his normal inning total. It's not clear how much longer the Cardinals would've been able to run him out.

But Chris Carpenter's 1-5 win-loss record says nothing about his contributions and Jaime Garcia has been dominant (outside of one epically bad start in Colorado). Jake Westbrook has been solid and Kyle Lohse has been putting his healthy forearm to good use and filling the strike zone. They may not have their big three, but they have a more-than-solid four.

Brewers

The Brewers finished 2010 with one big problem: pitching. The Miller Park inhabitants could score runs, but preventing them was a whole different story. A pair of trades lurched the Brewers toward respectability and legitimate contention. Or so it seemed. As it turned out, they had to wait a little bit before things would come together.

Zack Greinke's ribs slowly healed after an offseason basketball injury derailed his spring training. Rounding into shape, the former Cy Young winner is now fronting the Milwaukee rotation. Fellow new arrival Shaun Marcum started slowly but began dominating with his change-up. There were some concerns about his shoulder, but those are fading into the dark corners of April's memories. Returning ace Yovani Gallardo completes the trio that could be the best group in the division, due to Wainwright's hiatus.

With a big three now intact, the Brewers are bolstered by two lefty curveball throwers in the back of the rotation. That sounds pretty good, doesn't it? Chris Narveson was very good early on, and Randy Wolf has been solid. The Brewers really don't need Narveson to act like a front line starter, and Wolf can hit some speed bumps. They're not guys you want slotted two-three, but four-five works like a charm.

While the rotation was coming into focus this spring, the Brewers still had to deal with their bullpen. They've managed to put together a group that gets it done with ground balls and not a lot of strikeouts. The bat missers on this team are in the rotation.

John Axford is the closer as planned, and his supporting cast (which includes Marco Estrada, the newly acquired Sergio Mitre and Kameron Loe) is coming together nicely. Outside of Estrada, the Brewers' primary relivers are worm killers. Five members of the bullpen have a groundball rate higher than 50 percent, and only Estrada and Zach Braddock have below-average rates.

Reds

The Reds were this author's pick to repeat as division champions. A few events have intervened.

Arrest. Injury. Demotion.

In in a bizarre occurence, Mike Leake was nabbed for shoplifting. We all need t-shirts, one way or another. Leake also found himself struggling on the mound (again) and was sent to the minors. That was more bizarre, since his only no-major league pro experience had been in the Arizona Fall League.

While in Louisville, Leake had a chance to catch up with Aroldis Chapman. Chapman had a stint of low velocity (for him) early in the season, but recovered. Sort of. His control is still nonexistent (for the most part) and his shoulder balkly. DL and rehab were the course of action, and Chapman is still in the minor leagues. Leake, meanwhile, came back up when Edinson Volquez was demoted.

The Reds have used nine starters already. Two have been consistently effective, although those guys haven't combined for a dozen starts yet. Leake has split time between Louisville, the bullpen and the starting five. Volquez made 10 starts and struck out 53 in 51 innings—along with 38 walks. Travis Wood and Bronson Arroyo have struggled, while Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey have excelled.

Thing is, Arroyo and Wood have each made more starts than Cueto and Bailey combined. Cueto missed April while on the DL, and Bailey is there now. Even swingmen Sam LeCure and Matt Maloney dealt with injuries, thinning out the bullpen and the rotation depth. The Reds are very thankful for that rotation depth: It's kept them from falling out of contention. Guys will need to get healthy and/or on track during June... or the upstart Pirates could sneak past.

Pirates

This is a good pitching staff. Along with the Cardinals, the Bucs are one-two in the division in strike rate, SLGCON and groundball rate. They are on the low end of whiff rates, while the Cardinals are not.

The names may not evoke awe, but the Pirates have their own big three. Kevin Correia was a an unimpressive choice for Opening Day, but is now tied for the league lead in wins. Paul Maholm has been a solid, veteran presence and Charlie Morton has emerged as the ace with comparisons to Roy Halladay. Morton does throw a cutter, sinker and breaking pitch, but the similarities don't stop there. They have similar body and delivery types, and have posted similar results in 2011.

While the excitement in Pittsburgh has generally been reserved for the Pirates' up-and-coming position players, the pitching has taken this team out of the cellar and near the .500 mark. The Pirates haven't had a winning team in nearly 20 years. Could the streak be coming to an end?

Joel Hanrahan has been closing games for the Pirates since late 2010, and he's been very effective in 2011. His strikeout rate has dropped from over one-per-inning in his career and he's now averaging five fewer strikeouts per nine innings than in 2010. But he hasn't blown a save and his fastball/slider combo are just as wicked as before. No cause for worry at the moment—unless you're an opposing hitter.

Cubs

The Cubs figured to rely on pitching as their strength in 2011. Spotty defense and questionable offense were clearly going to be the problems. The defense has been sub-standard but the offense has shown signs of life. The pitching staff has been, for the most part, a disaster.

Matt Garza was doing just fine as the new No. 3 guy until a minor elbow issue put him on the DL. He's due back soon, but the timing was awful. The Cubs were already scraping the barrel for starters.

Andrew Cashner got past five innings in his first start in April, and is now on the 60-day DL with a rotator cuff strain. Carlos Silva stomped away in a huff after spring training, and has watched from the Yankees farm as nine different Cubs took the ball as starters. Randy Wells came back from a forearm strain, but is still not 100 percent.

Doug Davis and Rodrigo Lopez weren't even Cubs in March, and both have started games. Davis remains in the rotation for now, having made just one good start after a few awful outings. At least Jeff Russell is no longer “starting” games (bullpen days) and Casey Coleman is working things out in Iowa.

In front of Garza, things haven't been perfect either. Ryan Dempster started poorly, but has regained his form. Carlos Zambrano has been himself, not great, but quite good. Outside of Sean Marshall, the bullpen has been dicey. As of late, super closer Carlos Marmol has been losing velocity and getting hit very hard. At this point, the Cubs are just trying to stay ahead of Houston.

Astros

Let's see. Mark Melancon has done nicely in the wake of Brandon Lyon's injury. Jordan Lyles looked nice in his debut.

What else? Wandy Rodriguez is on the DL, Brett Myers is looking nothing like the ace he was last year, J.A. Happ is a No. 4 starter, nothing more, and Bud Norris may be the best pitcher on the staff.

It's been a train wreck. Like the Cubs, the Astros have a low groundball rate at a high SLGCON against. Unlike the Cubs, the Astros staff doesn't miss bats. Like the Brewers, it's the starters who miss bats and the relievers who kill worms.

Wandy's injury was a shame; he was pitching well and fronting the staff. Myers has started to round into form, but until Lyles came up, the Nelson Figueroa/Aneury Rodriguez innings were very costly. Rodriguez, a Rule 5 acquisition, has moved back to the bullpen where he seems best suited. Figueroa was outrighted to Triple-A, where he seems best suited.

Summary

Some of the finer points may have been hard to pick up in a crystal ball, but the top three teams in the division are the teams expected to be in that mix. The Cubs' regression and the surge by the Pirates are not too terribly far-fetched, even with only the slightest benefit of hindsight.

As of this writing, the Reds, Astros and Cubs are the bottom three in NL team ERA. The Pirates, Brewers and Cardinals are five, six and seven. Yes, the Bucs and the Brewers have the best staff ERAs in the division. OK, maybe that would've sounded far-fetched three months ago.

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Lance Lynn debuts for St. Louis

Harry Pavlidis — 2011-06-03T11:21:15+00:00

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