The Hardball Times -- Jason Dunbar http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-06-18T08:13:15+00:00 Which starters have lost the most velocity since 2011? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/which-starters-have-lost-the-most-velocity-since-2011/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/which-starters-have-lost-the-most-velocity-since-2011/#When:08:24:15
But is this always true?

Clearly, velocity isn’t the be-all/end-all for success in major league baseball. Jamie Moyer came back from the dead to don a major league uniform and he can barely top 80 mph. But it seems that the general belief is that power pitchers suffer more than finesse hurlers when it comes to loss of velocity.

With that in mind, let’s look at the current starting pitchers who have undergone the greatest decreases in velocity since last season, with an eye toward why (and if there’s any real sort of relation to poorer performances).

The following are the top five decreases in miles per hour (using each starter’s main fastball type). All miles-per-hour numbers are thanks to brooksbaseball.net, as of Monday, May 21.

American League starters



1. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

As Cy Young voters showed us a couple of years ago, his 3-3 record can essentially be ignored. And if anyone’s worried about the loss of 2.5 mph off his average sinker, they shouldn’t be—at least not according to the numbers.

Last season, Hernandez threw his go-to pitch at an average speed of 93.8 mph, but it is down to 91.4 in ’12. Clearly, he can live there if he continues to hit his spots. And he is.

His K/9 rate is the highest it has ever been since he came into the league, at 8.76, and his walk rate is 2.73, just about matching his career average. King Felix has the arsenal and control to adjust to the drop in speed, so, no problems here.

There is really no good explanation as to why the drop is taking place (that we know of), but Jeff Sullivan of Baseball Nation has a good explanation as to why he surviving at the lowered speeds (other than the ridiculous movement on his pitches):

He gets “ten inches more extension than the average [pitcher] … Long story short, while Felix's fastball velocity is down this year, it looks slower to us than it does to the hitters. He might be sitting at 90-93, but he might look like 91-94, or 92-95.”

In other words, his reach is longer, so it looks much faster to the hitter coming out of his hand. All hail King Felix.

2. Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians

Masterson relies on his four-seamer nearly as much as his sinker, and has lost significant speed off each pitch. In addition, the sinker isn’t exactly dropping off the table, as he sits at 1-3 with a 5.04 ERA. His K/9 rate is down while his walks are up.

Things are just not going well for the former Red Sox prospect in 2012.

The sinker has gone from 92.7 mph to 90.3, while the four-seamer dropped to 91.9 mph from 94.2. This is a problem, considering that the two pitches combined account for 68 percent of all balls thrown by the 27-year-old.

We can perhaps chalk his troubles up to mechanical issues, as he is perfectly healthy by all accounts. And there’s no reason for a pitcher who lives and dies by his fastball/sinker combo to take anything off of those two pitches intentionally.

Clearly, the loss in velocity hurts in Masterson’s case, but his control is the real kicker. Who knows, maybe the speed will come back if/when the command does.

3. Carl Pavano, Minnesota Twins

Probably no one outside of Minnesota and mustache aficionados cares much about Carl Pavano anymore, so I won’t spend much time here. But for a guy who throws a sinker over half the time he pitches, a loss of 2.4 mph probably doesn’t help.

This year, though, he’s approximately where you’d expect him to be—hovering around .500 with an ERA close to 5.00.

At this point, he’s an innings-eater for the Twins, and the decreased velocity is probably just due to age. Even so, if the trend continues, Pavano and his spectacular mustache won’t be around much longer for fans to marvel at.

4. Tommy Hunter, Baltimore Orioles

Hunter, dealt to the O’s last summer in the Koji Uehara deal, seems to be roughly the same hurler who came over from the Rangers, despite a loss of nearly two mph off his four-seamer.

His K/9 rate is up this year, but so are his walks. His ERA is a tick higher than his career mark, and his BABIP sits at .273. He’s also taken off well over two mph from his sinker, but his significant reliance on this (so far) effective pitch has his groundball rate up to a career-high 45.9 percent.

There’s no clear relation to a drop in velocity and decreased success on this one.

5. Bartolo Colon, Oakland A’s

Bartolo Colon’s unibrow is distracting. So is the rubber tire wrapped around his chin. But that still doesn’t explain his performance on Wednesday, April 18.

The man threw 38 consecutive strikes against the Angels, a feat that will trump the aforementioned physical attributes when it comes to top Colon memories.

As far as the loss in velocity, the 1.7 mph drop from his average sinker, combined with the strike-streak, is a testament to the control vs. speed debate: a big leaguer can survive, as long as the control is there.

National League starters


1. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants

The presence of Big Time Timmy Jim, the man with the most hilarious self-assigned nickname of all time, really isn’t a surprise here (though I didn’t expect him to top the list).

Lincecum has lost 2.5 miles per hour off of his average fastball, which is unsettling since he’s relying on it more heavily now that he’s dialed back the frequency of his slider. Reports out of camp that he was shelving the breaking pitch to save wear and tear on his arm didn’t entirely pan out, but 14 percent of his pitches this year have been sliders, compared to 29 percent in 2011.

Is he hurt? All signs point to no.

His ERA is inflated (6.04), but his K/9 rate is up over 10, higher than the last two seasons. His ground-ball percentage is right around his career average, and his BABIP is seventh-highest in the majors at .353.

So, he’ll probably be fine. Here’s hoping he avoids injury and gets craftier as he ages.

2. Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants

Vogelsong’s 2011 was a nice, heartwarming story. But did anybody really expect it to continue for the 34-year-old? Aside from Brian Sabean and Vogelsong’s mom, probably not.

The thing is, those expectations would be wrong, because he’s doing it again. Sort of. His ERA sits at 2.66 over 40.2 innings, though his BABIP is pretty low at .243. Also, his BB/9 rate is up slightly to 3.8 from 3.1 last year.

Despite the fact that he’s lost over two mph off his four-seamer thus far, he continues to be valuable for the Giants. How long that will last is anyone’s guess.

3. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies

Not only has he lost 1.9 mph from his cutter (down to 89.6 mph), his sinker has fallen off as well (down from 92.7 in ’11 to 91.6). The decreased velocity of the sinker wouldn’t even register here, but for the cutter as well.

Has it affected him much?

Maybe a little. His K/9 rate is down from 8.47 last year to 6.99 thus far, while his groundball percentage is down and his walks are up (almost negligibly). Also, this is the second year in a row that he’s lost a little something off the cutter.

He may just be getting old.

I would expect things to even out for him as the season goes on, if for no other reason than his name is Roy Halladay.

4. Erik Bedard, Pittsburgh Pirates

I think we can just chalk this (and his career) up to injuries and call it a day. Bedard may be trade bait for a contender come July, but I’d be wary here if I were a buyer. The Red Sox learned that the hard way last season when they picked him up out of desperation for the back end of the rotation.

The former Oriole and Mariner has lost 1.7 mph off his fastball, a situation that needs to improve for the 33-year-old as the season goes on, as he is living around 89 mph these days (though his strikeout and walk numbers are very respectable thus far).

His numbers aren’t bad by any means, as he sports a 3.07 ERA over 41 innings for the Pirates, but I wouldn’t expect that to hold (or his body to, either), should he be traded to a contender.

5. Kevin Correia, Pittsburgh Pirates

Every time Kevin Correia records an out, an angel gets its wings.

All kidding aside, Correia’s numbers are hurting across the board, including the loss of 1.6 mph off his four-seamer. Unlike others such as Halladay and Hernandez, he clearly doesn’t have the pitching acumen to deal with such a drop.

As we can see, a drop in velocity happens for a variety of reasons: old age, injury, mechanical flaw, change of approach, or being named Kevin Correia. When these things occur, it isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as long as the pitcher can compensate with control.

With that said, it will be interesting to see which, if any, can reverse the trend the rest of the way.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jason Dunbar 2012-05-24T08:24:15+00:00 What is the best swing-and-miss pitch in baseball right now? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-is-the-best-swing-and-miss-pitch-in-baseball-right-now/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-is-the-best-swing-and-miss-pitch-in-baseball-right-now/#When:08:50:15
A swing-and-miss can be one of the most spectacularly violent moments in all of sports, and often happens dozens of times within a single game.

With that said, when I discovered the whiff/swing tool so generously provided by the guys over at Brooksbaseball.net, an obsession was born. Brooks Baseball has been both a godsend to my baseball watching experience and a bar-of-soap-in-a-gym-sock to my family life—I think my wife filed divorce papers last week while I was surfing its pages. Yet I still can’t give it up.

As a Red Sox fan, I began tinkering with the feature while wondering how dialed-back Daniel Bard’s stuff has become since his conversion to starter. Reports coming out of spring training said he’d developed a second, tamer version of his notorious video-game slider. Bard’s fastball certainly had something taken off—he wasn’t throwing 99 miles per hour anymore, which was to be expected. But his slider looked as good as ever. A quick check with the numbers over at Brooks, and it turns out I didn’t need glasses (more on that later).

I did more and more digging, until eventually I combed through every pitcher (and breaking ball) in the majors and came up with combined whiff/swing data from 2011 and ’12 in a search for the pitch with the highest swing-and-miss rate in baseball over the past year or so. These are my results.

I’ve broken the leaders down between 2012 starters and relievers by league, including guys who are on the 15-day DL (but not on the 60-day, or are currently in the minors). The minimum for all pitches is 200 times thrown, to ensure a big enough sample size of pitches.

The question I was kicking around: If there was a situation where you absolutely had to keep the ball out of play, which pitch would give you the best chance, and who throws it? Here are the results.

(Note: all whiff/swing stats reflect numbers appearing on Brooksbaseball.net through Wednesday, May 9.)

National League starters


1. Cole Hamels’ changeup

Hamels is currently taking a lot of heat for his actions concerning Nationals phenom Bryce Harper, but that doesn’t take away from his repertoire on the mound. The 27-year-old California native has dropped his off-speed pitch on hitters at a mind-boggling whiff rate of 50.12 percent since the start of 2011 (926 times thrown).

This sort of weaponry hasn’t hurt Hamels’ numbers (in a contract year, no less), as he is 4-1 over 40.1 innings pitched, and sports a 2.45 ERA. He’s upped his K/9 rate from 2011’s 8.1 to 9.8 so far this year as well.

2. James McDonald’s slider

Though the 27-year-old Pirate is showing signs of figuring it out in the early going, this is probably our first example of a guy with tantalizing stuff who just can’t put it all together.

Yet, one thing’s for sure: his slider has worked spectacularly for him over the past season or so. Though the explanation may just be small sample size (he’s thrown it 231 times since the start of 2011), hitters are still whiffing at an impressive 49 percent rate during that span.

3. Jeff Samardzija’s splitter/change-up

Though Brooks has this pitch classified as a splitter, I came across this bit from Bradley Woodrum of FanGraphs:

I’m not entirely convinced these are two different pitches. His splitter and change-up travel at nearly the same speed and have nearly the same break. The PITCHf/x algorithm did not even detect a splitter until Sunday night, so I’m inclined to think it’s all just the change-up. And his change-up is good; rather, it’s good enough. It’s about as fast as his slider and has been moderately effective through his career. As a surprise pitch or a put-away pitch against lefties, it works admirably.

This is the 27-year-old’s first season as a member of the Cubs rotation, so the 234 times-thrown is a little low for a starter. But whether it’s a splitter or a change-up, the off-speed pitch seems to be working for him.

Here’s hoping the former Notre Dame wideout keeps up his early season success and is able to live up to the initial promise he showed for the Cubs.

4. Clayton Kershaw’s curveball

Kershaw’s 12-to-6 curve is truly a jaw-dropping pitch when it’s on, and probably doesn’t need much of an introduction here. And though it was especially effective, it was just one of many weapons Kershaw rode to the 2011 NL Cy Young Award.

He does use it sparingly, though, throwing the hook just 205 times since the beginning of ’11 for a 45.86 percent whiff rate.

5. Edinson Volquez’s change-up

Swapped in the Mat Latos deal from Cincinnati in the offseason, Volquez may be seeing the start of a resurgence in the transition to San Diego’s Petco Park.

Whatever the cause of his 2.98 ERA over 42.1 innings, park factor certainly doesn’t figure into the 44.54 percent whiff-rate the 28-year-old has racked up on 685 chang-eups thrown since the start of 2011.

American League starters


1. Daniel Bard’s slider

The slider is Bard’s best weapon, hands down, and is one of the best breaking pitches in the AL. Though he probably takes the top spot on this list due to the time he spent as a reliever last season (reducing his attempts and allowing him to ramp things up as a reliever), his whiff-rate has actually increased from 50.48 to 58.33 percent this year.

Across the two seasons combined, he’s thrown 368 sliders for a 52.53 percent swing-and-miss rate. Now if the 26-year-old can just put it all together as a starter for Boston.

2. Ricky Romero’s change-up

Having the opportunity to see Romero pitch on a semi-regular basis is highly entertaining, and his change-up is one reason why. Since the start of 2011, the 27-year-old has thrown it 711 times for a 43.13 percent whiff-rate.

Though he’s off to a 4-0 start for the Jays, his K/9-rate is down from 7.1 to 6.2 thus far. One reason may be that hitters are whiffing on the off-speed pitch 29.73 percent of the time, down from 44.88 in 2011.

Note: Chicago’s Chris Sale and his slider held down the No. 2 slot (46.66 percent whiff-rate, 567 times thrown), but the converted reliever has gone back to the ‘pen (at least for now) after making five starts for the White Sox.

3. Ivan Nova’s slider

The Yankees seem to have a found a middle of the rotation-type in the 25-year-old Nova. He’s set up the slider to the tune of a 42.77 percent whiff-rate and a 3-1 record thus far in ’12. If nothing else, the pitch will probably help propel him to just under 200 innings and double-digit wins this year for the Yanks.

4. CC Sabathia’s slider

Perhaps the most impressive entry on the AL list, Sabathia has thrown his slider a whopping 1,204 times since the start of last season. Clearly, there are no small-sample size issues here. (No, that wasn’t a weight joke, for once.)

Hitters have swung and missed at the breaking ball at a rate of 42.77 percent since the beginning of 2011.

5. Francisco Liriano's slider

If this doesn’t illustrate the frustration that Twins fans have felt at watching Liriano, then I don’t know what does. Not only does Liriano hold down the fifth spot, but his change-up comes in at No. 6.

With an arsenal like that, it’s mind-boggling that Liriano isn’t an annual Cy Young contender. But he’s just another—and perhaps one of the greatest—examples of how “stuff” isn’t everything.

Right now, he's 0-5 with a 9.45 ERA, and the whiff rates on the two aforementioned pitches have fallen significantly from last year to this.

National League relievers


1. Jonny Venters’ slider

In case you were wondering: This is the answer to my initial question. If you absolutely have to keep the ball out of play in a single situation, Venters’ slider is the way to go.

Though his 95-mph sinker is more famed (and rightfully so, as Baseball Nation named it the best pitch in baseball in 2011), the slider comes with a far higher whiff-rate. The Braves’ lefty reliever fired off 312 of them since the start of 2011, inducing a swing-and-miss 69.18 of the time. Ridiculous.

2. Joel Hanrahan’s slider

Despite blowing his first save of the season on Tuesday vs. the Nationals, the 30-year-old has had a successful start to the season, which comes on the heels of a 2011 campaign that saw him post a 1.83 ERA. His best swing-and-miss weapon, the slider, misses bats 58.50 percent of the time (220 times thrown).

3. Henry Rodriguez’ curve

Henry Rodriguez sports a ridiculous whiff-rate when he drops his hook (55.6 percent on 256 times thrown). The problem is, he’s thrown only seven of them this season, compared to 2011’s 249. He seems to have replaced the curve with a slider, which comes with an impressive (if not meaningless, at this early point) whiff rate at 54.55 percent (26 thrown).

One can’t knock him for this move, though, as he has six saves and a 2.84 ERA for the upstart Nationals thus far.

American League relievers


1. Jordan Walden’s slider

Ironically, a lack of control on this breaking ball is one of the reasons Walden lost his closing job for the Angels. Now that newly minted closer Scott Downs is injured, Walden may win back the role if he can recapture the form that garnered him a 2011 All-Star appearance.

The first step on the road to reclamation will be regaining control of his slider, which hitters missed at an amazing rate of 64.21 percent (201 times thrown).

Once again, Walden is a prime example that a single swing-and-miss weapon doesn’t necessarily correlate to success as a pitcher.

2. Sergio Santos’ slider

Shoulder injuries aside, when Santos takes the mound for the Blue Jays, his slider misses opponents’ bats at the second-highest rate in the American League since the beginning of 2011, at 64.21 percent.

Though his 317 sliders went for a 65 percent whiff-rate last year, his rate was down significantly (53.85 percent) before he went down in late April.

3. Aaron Crow’s slider

He's a possible starter down the road for Kansas City, so the whiff rate on this pitch will probably decline as his career goes on. The book on him has been that he has been unable to get lefties out, though that hasn’t exactly held true this season (again, possibly due to a small sample size).

In any case, Crow’s slider comes in at an impressive 52.52 swing-and-miss rate, good for third among current AL relievers.

So, there you have it. A whiff pitch the size of Thor’s hammer doesn’t necessarily correlate to success, but it sure helps in a lot of cases. It certainly isn’t a detriment to viewing pleasure, either.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jason Dunbar 2012-05-11T08:50:15+00:00