The Hardball Times -- Joe Dimino http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-06-17T08:01:15+00:00 2010: If we still had pennant races http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/2010-if-we-still-had-pennant-races/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/2010-if-we-still-had-pennant-races/#When:19:49:15
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Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Joe Dimino 2005-05-07T05:12:15+00:00 Five Questions: Baltimore Orioles http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-baltimore-orioles/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-baltimore-orioles/#When:04:03:15 1. What can they expect from Sammy Sosa?Slammin' Sammy has been in a three-year decline pattern, his OPS+ dwindled to 110 from 201 over that time-frame. That's an awful trend for a player who is now 36 years old.

His playing time has declined as well over that time (games played: 160-150-137-126). It's quite likely some of the decline can be explained by injuries, as opposed to just aging - though those are obviously intermingled. So the move to the AL, where he can DH and give his body a break without leaving the lineup, should help.

I think he will at least post numbers similar to last year (539 PA; .255/.332/.517), but he'll probably bounce back with better numbers and more playing time. He's got a little something to prove, and his comments at the time of the trade reflect that of someone who is getting some focus back. Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections agree, and they don't account for the likely improved health/focus.

I realize these intangibles are useless in projecting groups of players, but in individual cases they can help sometimes.

2. Was Sosa worth the price?

I know some of you Oriole diehards are saying, "Two Sammy Sosa questions, what about the rest of the team?"

Well, the rest of your team is possibly the most, "who cares" combination of talents in the major leagues. They aren't bad enough to be interesting from the, "you have to look at the train wreck," perspective like the 2003 Tigers or last year's Diamondbacks.

There isn't a collection of young talent just waiting to break out like the 1993 Indians or 1982-86 Twins.

Sure, Javy Lopez, Miguel Tejada, and Melvin Mora are near the top of the game at their positions. Still, this is simply your classic forgettable 77-85 team.

Back to Sammy. From a money perspective it was a very good move. Sammy will only cost the Orioles $8.85 million for the season. Despite ownership's claims that the financial sky is falling with the coming of the Nationals, the Orioles can afford it, since they came up short on every big name they went after in the off-season. The only other significant addition was Steve Kline. It's not as if that money would have been better spent elsewhere. Without this trade it was just lining Mr. Angelos' pockets.

On the field he didn't cost much either. Jerry Hairston is a nice guy to have around; he gets on base and has improved over the last two seasons - when he's been on the field. But he is basically an average player if he's playing second base, as an outfielder or DH . . . not so much.

Since the team is committed to Brian Roberts, Hairston really didn't have a role here, there are plenty of OF/DH types in orange and black these days.

The kids they gave up are nothing special either. Mike Fontenot was a first round draft pick in 2001 (interestingly, to me anyway, he was their compensation pick for Mike Mussina). But he's 25 now and he has been pretty disappointing. He looks like he's most likely on his way to being a decent utility guy, not a regular.

Baseball-Reference guru Sean Forman once told me that the biggest thing he learned from doing the Iowa Farm Report was just how good the minor league stats were from even weak major league regulars. I remember him referencing Mark Lemke as an example. So I looked him up and sure enough, Lemke hit .270-.290 with 16-20 HR each season from 1986-88. Pretty good pop for a great defensive 2B prospect in the mid-1980s.

The point of that diversion (other than my finally getting a chance to work it into an article) is that even a player like that only turned into Mark Lemke. Mike Fontenot's chance of being remembered by baseball fans 15 years from now is pretty remote unless he goes the Francisco Cabrera school of immortality.

Dave Crouthers was a third round pick in 2001. He's also 25 and put up a 5.03 ERA in Double-A last year. He is somewhat better than that would lead you to believe, as he fanned 138 batters in 140 IP, but he also walked 68 and gave up 23 dingers. He's a longshot at best.

On the field, I don't think anyone can say with any certainty whether or not it's a good idea. Sammy could bounce back to his 2002-03 level (2001 isn't happening again, of course), or he could continue the decline and be out of the game before next opening day. Hairston is okay but had no place on the team and Fontenot or Crothers could possibly have a good career, but very likely won't. It's easy to lump trades into a 90/10 type certainty on who won the deal (especially with hindsight), but really it's more like 60/40 the great majority of the time (especially at the time of the deal), and this one is no different. Personally, I would have made the deal if I were Beatagan and it were presented to me.

3. Speaking of which, what's the verdict on Beatagan (Flaneattie?) so far?

Jim Beattie and Mike Flanagan took over the reigns of the organization just before the 2002 winter meetings. It was too late at that point to do anything for the 2003 season, other than sneak Mora off to an island somewhere and replace him with George Brett.

During the year they flipped lame-duck starter Sidney Ponson for a nice package, including Kurt Ainsworth, Damian Moss and Ryan Hannaman.

Maybe nice package, 'at the time,' would have been more appropriate.

Ainsworth was regarded as a top prospect about two months before the trade (he made 11 starts with an ERA+ of 112 for the Giants early that season), until it was discovered that he had a broken shoulder. The O's decided to 'buy low' but so far Ainsworth has been unable to return to form. He's going under the knife again; perhaps he'll be back in 2006.

Hannaman had 367 K's in 316 minor league innings, but he also has a bum shoulder now and a future that is in doubt (he's 24 in August and he still hasn't thrown a pitch above A-ball).

Moss was just involved to eat some innings over the rest of 2003 and landed in Tampa in 2004.

I can't fault this deal at all. Right move, wrong result. The O's were even able to resign Ponson in the offseason. They found the best offer and took it; unfortunately nothing went right afterward.

The next winter they were given some money to play with, and they used it to bring Tejada, Lopez and Rafael Palmeiro into the fold. Life was definitely injected in an offense that improved from 10th in the AL in R/G to 6th.

Some (like me) felt that signing Lopez and Palmeiro didn't make a lot of sense for a team that wasn't expected to contend for a few years. The Palmeiro move was a waste - BJ Surhoff was just as good. But Lopez filled a gaping hole perfectly. I'm still unsure that he'll maintain this level of production until the Orioles become good enough to contend.

Beatagan also did a great job picking up 30-year old minor league veteran David Newhan off the scrap heap in June. After two years out of the affiliated minors he came back in 2003 and hit well for Colorado Springs, then tore the cover off the ball for Oklahoma early last year (.328/.387/.557). He hit .311/.361/.453 for the Orioles, filling in as an OF/DH/3B.

This winter they added Kline, which makes a strong bullpen stronger, and decided to rent Sosa for a year. Neither move is bad, but they were unable to fill one of the gaping holes in their rotation. It's generally accepted that this is because the purse-strings have been tightened with the Expos moving 40 miles down I-95. If that's the case, it's tough to fault them.

Overall I think these guys have done a pretty solid job considering the situation they started with. They've added to the talent base, they haven't been burned in trades and have identified some freely available talent and gone after it. I give them a solid "B" grade at this point.

4. Will this team ever acquire or develop any pitching?

What went unnoticed by most was that the pitching/fielding improved, from 10th to 7th in R/G. Last spring, I told some Oriole fans that whether or not it was a successful season would not be determined by the wins and losses. It would be determined by whether not they could find three guys that could pitch. At that point, I reasoned, they could go out and sign a pitcher or two and they'd magically have a legitimate staff. You can't just sign five I would tell them as they complained about Angelos being a tight-wad.

Ponson had a horrible first half, but bounced back after the All-Star Break (8-3, 4.21 ERA). He was getting pounded in the first half (153 H in 113 IP), in the 2nd half he was back to normal (112 H in 103 IP). I don't believe he was 'hit unlucky' early in the year, I think he was pitching hurt and getting tuned up. He didn't make a start from July 4 through July 19 and after the two week layoff he rattled off three great starts in a row and five of six. If he's healthy I expect him to return to his typical 115 ERA+ self.

Rodrigo Lopez (14-9, 3.59) returning to his 2002 form helped. Young pitchers like Erik Bedard (6-10, 4.59) and relievers John Parrish (3.46 ERA) and BJ Ryan (2.28) also took a step forward. Bedard and Parrish proved themselves as legitimate major leaguers, though it would be good if Parrish could curb the walks some. He issued 55 free passes in 78 IP - it's a good thing he only gave up 4 HR and whiffed 71. Ryan had possibly the best year of any setup man in the game. Take a look at his line and compare it to Brad Lidge's. He's the best kept bullpen secret in baseball.

The one pitcher that they 'found' who wasn't as good as advertised is Daniel Cabrera (12-8, 5.00). He inexplicably finished 3rd in the AL Rookie of the Year balloting, ahead of Zach Greinke (8-11, 3.97), David DeJesus and David Bush (5-4, 3.68, 50 fewer innings than Cabrera). His raw numbers, like the 5.00 ERA weren't very good. He only whiffed 76 in 148 IP, and he walked 89. In this era of record strikeout numbers, you cannot succeed long term with a K/BB ratio that is less than one.

But there is even some hope there. Cabrera is just 24 this year. He was pitching in A-ball in 2003 and had exactly 5 Double-A starts under his belt when he was called up. They were 5 great starts though; he allowed 11 hits over 27.3 IP, just one HR. He fanned 35 and walked 12. I could see why the O's were tempted to give him a shot.

Cabrera's minor league K numbers are quite good, 296 in 295 IP and only 11 HR allowed. He did walk 193 though. I expect him to improve his performance, though the W-L mark will likely decline. As Bill James discovered in the early 90s, pitchers with 6.3 strikeouts per win tend to see their records slip some. But I do think he is probably a better pitcher than his 2004 K/BB would lead you to believe.

So the Orioles found the three starters they needed, perhaps a fourth. They also had a very good bullpen, and improved by 6 games in the standings. I'd say that's solid progress.

But they were not able to land an ace in the off-season. This is a team that desperately needs that ace. If Angelos tightened the purse strings, as is widely rumored, I don't see what Flanagan or Beattie could have done. But this team probably needed someone like Pedro Martinez or Carl Pavano, who would only cost money and not talent, more than any other.

5. Is there help on the way?

The Orioles did not have one player on Aaron Gleeman's Top 50 Prospects list. They do have an outfield prospect, Nick Markakis that John Sickels gave a "B+" grade to in The Baseball Prospect Book 2005.

Markakis is 21 and hit .299/.371/.470 for Delmarva (Single-A) last season. He's a good outfielder also. He's a few years away at least.

Val Majewski was also given a B+ by Sickels, but he will likely miss the season after undergoing surgery for a torn labrum earlier this month. He turns 24 in June and hit .307/.359/.490 for Double-A Bowie last year.

Jeff Fiorentino, a 22-year-old outfielder, also hit very well for Delmarva, .302/.379/.575. He too is at least 2 years away.

Hayden Penn, Chris Ray and John Maine are the best pitching prospects.

Maine is the closest to the majors - he actually had a cup of coffee last year. He made the jump from Single-A to Triple-A after just five starts for Bowie last year. He pitched very well in the second half, for the year he had a 3.91 ERA, 105 strikeouts in 120 IP. He walked 52 and gave up 12 HR. He will start the year in Triple-A, but I'll be surprised if he doesn't get called to the big club at some point.

Ray and Penn are younger, and spent last summer touring Maryland. Penn is only 20, and he bounced all over last year - he started the year in Salisbury pitching for Delmarva. After 6 starts and 7 relief appearances there (3.32 ERA, 41/19 K/BB, 43 IP), he made the drive over the Bay Bridge and on to Frederick for 13 starts (3.80, 61/20, 73 IP). From there he shot down 270 to the DC Beltway, swung out on 50 and landed in Bowie, where he made his final four starts (4.87, 20/9, 20 IP). He's at least 2 years away from a drive to the Inner Harbor.

Ray didn't get the trip to Bowie in August, but he made 9 starts at Delmarva (3.42, 46/17, 50 IP) and 14 for Frederick (3.80, 74/20, 73 IP). Ray is almost 3 years older than Penn, but I don't believe age is quite as important when it comes to pitching prospects; they are basically equal at this point in their development in terms of results. Ray throws harder (95 vs. 90-92), but Sickels says he needs to develop a change in order to pitch at the higher levels, and who am I to argue?

Walter Young is a little older, but I like him. Move over Cecil Fielder. Young is 6'5", 290 and he can mash, blasting 33 HR for Bowie last year in 486 AB. He strikes out a lot (146 times last year) and he's 25, so he's not a great prospect. But I'd keep moving him up until he proves he can't hit. Like Newhan, this is a great example of Baltimore's new management picking up some freely available talent - they claimed him off waivers from Pittsburgh.

Get the picture? There is practically no help on the way from the farm system any time soon. Just about everyone I mentioned played for Delmarva in the Sally League last year. That team finished 69-69. The farm system was in a shambles when Flanagan and Beattie took over, and it still has a long way to go, but they are making progress.

Outlook

The O's are making progress, but it's been the slow, steady type of progress that's easy to miss when the team is still below .500 and one bad year is blending into another. But this team is miles ahead of where they were two years ago - the Orioles were 67-95 without anyone on the team that could remotely be considered a star. They improved 10 games over the last two seasons, and I think they can get to .500 this year.

Baltimore has 3 legitimate stars now, Miguel Tejada, Melvin Mora (two years can't be a fluke, can it?) and Javy Lopez and we aren't counting the aging Sammy Sosa or Rafael Palmeiro in that group - they aren't stars anymore. They have a good bullpen. They have two solid starters (Lopez and Ponson), and reasonable options for the back end of the rotation (Bedard/Cabrera).

But for the team to take that next step, they are going to have to develop or sign an ace starter, and they are going to have to add a star to the offense. Larry Bigbie is kind of popular, but he was 26 years old last year and posted a 96 OPS+. Jay Gibbons fell off a cliff offensively and needs to return to his pre-2004 level (110 OPS+) to be remotely useful as a corner OF/1B. Palmeiro had a 103 OPS+ last year, which is downright awful for a 1B. I still think Luis Matos can play, but he needs to show it, he was a disaster after a promising 2003.

There are still a lot of holes - the Orioles need to actively be pursuing ways to fill them - it's easy to miss a hole when a 'name' is causing it. The Orioles have quite a few questionable 'name players' at this point.

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First, a real quick schedule disclaimer -- the Phillies have played three road games in Pittsburgh, Florida, Montreal, St. Louis, Arizona and San Francisco, and four in Colorado. So our park factors are essentially a comparison of Citizen's Bank Park to those parks, not necessarily a cross-section of the entire NL.

Using 2003 (2002 for Montreal because it is unpolluted with the 2003 games in San Juan), the non-Colorado parks had an average park factor of exactly 100 -- the combined effect of the parks is essentially neutral. So we are getting a reasonable array of opponents, except for Colorado -- we'll deal with Coors Field a little later.

The 'marginal' home opponents (the Phillies have played four 'home-and-home' series) are all pretty good (72-57), the road opponents are not (55-71). Since the Phillies have faced better offenses at home, this may overstate the impact of a positive run factor -- however they've also faced better pitching staffs, so this should be offset, I just thought it was worth pointing out.

The Phillies have scored and allowed a total of 196 runs in 20 games (9.8 r/g) in the new park. On the road in 22 games they've scored and allowed 203 (9.23 r/g). This elementary park factor shows the new park as a slight hitter's park -- a 106 park factor, with a 103 overall environment for Philly hitters/pitchers, after accounting for 1/2 the games being played on the road.

We can't forget there are small sample illusions to deal with. The Phillies have played four of their road games in the thin air of Coors Field. 57 runs were scored in those games. The Phillies won't be back to Coors this year, so while 18% of their road games include Coors today, by the end of the year that will be reduced to 5%. Coors is an extreme outlier, much moreso than any pitcher's park, so an adjustment is in order.

Let's take the other 18 Philly road games and weigh them 95%, and add in the Coors road games at 5%. This gives an 81-game projection of 682 runs in Philly road games vs. 794 in home games. The resulting park factor is 116 (108 for an overall environment to apply to raw RC or ERA).

In a recent column for The Sporting News, Ken Rosenthal mentions, "A total of 57 home runs were hit in the first 19 games at The Bank, matching the total in the first 19 games of the season at Coors." This fails to account for how many home runs the Phillies have hit on the road -- the Phillies have much more power than the Rockies, so it stands to reason their games would see more home runs, even if they were in equal parks. Just how strong is the home run factor at the "New Vet"?

The Phillies have hit/allowed 47 HR on the road (2.14/g); as mentioned, 57 have been hit at Citizen's Bank Park (2.85/g). This yields a basic HR factor of 133, which is quite strong these days.

That doesn't tell the whole story though, as we again have to adjust for the Coors Effect. 14 of the 47 road home runs were hit in four games at Coors Field. Giving those their proper weight, we project 155 HR in Phillie road games this season (as opposed to 173). The Phillies and their opponents are on pace to hit 231 home runs in the City of Brotherly Love this season. Citizen's Bank Park is on pace for a 149 home run factor, which would be one of the strongest home run factors in the game.

How much of the 116 run factor is explained by the 149 home run factor? Phils' games are on pace to have .69 runs per game more in Philadelphia this year, with .47 more home runs in those games. According to XRuns a home run is worth 1.44 runs. This means that on average, .47 home runs lead to .68 runs. So 98% of the Citizen's Bank Park's run factor deviance from an average park is a result of the additional home runs. Basically the park is playing average -- outside of the increased home runs.

One other thing that jumps out from the data -- the Phillies' own hitters account for the entire home run tendency of the park. The Phillies are on pace to hit 146 home runs at home and just 70 on the road, despite facing better pitchers at home. Their pitchers are on pace to allow 85 at home and 85 on the road (hitters and pitchers both adjusted for Coors).

Again, the split is even more significant when you remember that they've faced tougher hitters at home thus far. Again, it's early in the season, and the samples are small -- the split in the effect should even out some as the season moves on. The best thing to do with the data right now is average it out and remember it's a small sample. The Phillies do have a slightly above average ground-ball staff (1.29-1.33 ground balls for every fly ball, depending on the source).

What should all of this mean to Ed Wade? While it's still way too early to tell anything for certain (I can't stress that enough), should this pattern hold up, home run hitters become a premium in Philadelphia. If they have the chance to obtain two players of roughly equal quality but different 'styles', say a Sean Burroughs vs. an Aramis Ramirez, they should go with the home run hitter.

Likewise, Philadelphia should avoid pitchers prone to the dinger more than a normal team would. I suspect Larry Bowa's pitchers will end up allowing significantly more home runs at home than on the road by the time the season is out. For example, Robin Roberts wouldn't work out quite as well if he were pitching for the Phillies today. Not that either is on the market, but a Mariano Rivera would be more effective here than an Octavio Dotel. That wouldn't be true in a place like the old Astrodome, for example. The Phillies should focus on ground-ball pitchers, when possible, if this early sample is indicative of the true environment.

Next week I'll take a look at the early returns of Petco Park in San Diego.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Joe Dimino 2004-05-25T03:57:15+00:00 Comings and Goings (5/17-5/19) http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/comings-and-goings-517-519/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/comings-and-goings-517-519/#When:03:01:15 Chicago Cubs -- Placed RF Sammy Sosa on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to May 16, with a sprained ligament in his lower back; recalled OF Jason Dubois from Triple-A Iowa. Placed pitcher Kerry Wood on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to May 13, due to an injured triceps; recalled pitcher Michael Wuertz from Iowa of the Pacific Coast League (AAA).

Talk about freak injuries -- Sosa has a sprained ligament in his lower back and he suffered the injury when he sneezed twice. Wow -- it makes me scared to blink if world-class athletes can't even sneeze without blowing out their backs. He will be out at least a few weeks. Just when you think you've seen it all ... think of the frustration if the Cubs lose this thing by a game or two.

When it rains it pours, as Wood hits the shelf the day after Sosa. I wouldn't worry too much about Wood, he's 95% right now, and they say he's going on the DL as a precautionary measure. He should be back 5/28.

Despite the injuries piling up, the Cubs are hanging in; they're a game behind Houston -- yet they haven't had the services of Mark Prior or Mark Grudzielanek (four games played); Alex Gonzalez has already missed 15 games (and will likely be out six weeks total). A platoon of Todd Hollandsworth and Jose Macias will obviously be a major drop-off from Sosa. In the race with a tough Houston squad every game will count and it is looking like the Cubs may be snake-bit yet again.

DuBois is a big (6'5" 225) outfielder who turns 25 Wednesday. He was hitting .382/.628 (OBP/SLG) in Iowa, including 12 HR in 137 AB. He was a Rule 5 pick of the Blue Jays in December 2002, but he didn't stick. His power was down last year (15 HR/443 AB in AA), but obviously it appears to be back. Dubois has fanned 372 times in 1,374 minor league AB (including 39 times this year), so it'll be interesting to see how he adjusts to big league pitching. His K rate isn't at the red alert stage, but it's close.

It's kind of a paradox -- once you've proven you can hit major league pitching, it doesn't matter how much you strike out, in terms of production (see Hernandez, Jose -- 2001-02). But if you whiff too much in the minors, it's often a sign that you'll have trouble adjusting in the majors (see Branyan, Russ). That's why statheads care about batter strikeouts in development, but still love guys like Rob Deer and Mickey Tettleton.

Anaheim Angels -- Placed 3B Troy Glaus on the 60-day disabled list (retroactive to May 11) due to impending surgery on his right shoulder; selected the contract of INF Adam Riggs from Triple-A Salt Lake.

This one hurts. Unlike the Tim Salmon injury, Glaus was off to a fantastic start, hitting .387/.694. Unlike Garrett Anderson's injury, there is no Jeff DaVanon to step in and hit .427/.492 in Glaus' place. The Angels' third baseman is now Shane Halter, Chone Figgins or Alfredo Amezaga. Without a trade the loss of Glaus could cost them as many as 6-8 games in the standings. Figgins is the best of that group. He'll get on base at a .340/.350 clip, and surprisingly, Figgins has decent 2B/3B power and brings speed to the table as well.

They've called up Adam Riggs, who is 31 and was playing his 11th season in the minors. At age 24-25 he only played 110 games in 1997-98 combined, though he hit .332 with 50 BB and 44 extra-base hits in 397 AB (granted, it was at Albequerque). In 1999 or 2000 when he should have gotten his shot, he was with the Dodgers and Adrian Beltre blocked the way.

Riggs is not a hidden star or anything, but he is probably better than any of the others. It's hard to tell whether or not they'll give him a shot, but I'm not going to hold my breath. I'd guess he could hit .325/.400 if given the job. Dan Szymborski's ZiPs Projections are even more optimistic, figuring Riggs for .332/.442 (he's got Figgins at .358/.410, Halter at .295/.378 and Amezaga at .313/.352).

Third base is on a down cycle in the majors right now too -- there are very few good 3B out there, which makes trading for one a little tougher than it otherwise would be. Richie Sexson should be back Friday in Arizona, so perhaps the Diamondbacks would move Shea Hillenbrand reasonably cheaply. He's nothing special, and I'd only make the move if Figgins and Riggs falter, but it is another option.

Short of an unexpected trade for a star 3B I'd just platoon Riggs and Figgins.

Atlanta Braves -- Placed 2B Marcus Giles on the 15-day disabled list and INF Jesse Garcia was activated from the bereavement list.

Devestating loss for the Braves, as Giles was consolidating his 2003 gains with a .339/.381/.475 start. He could be out for two months with a broken collarbone.

Nick Green, 25, is going to get some time now; he's got some pop, and he was hitting .377 in Richmond over 77 AB. Based on his other 1,769 minor league AB before 2004, I think he'll struggle to hit .250 in Atlanta and he doesn't draw enough walks to make up for that.

This is a pretty big loss for the Braves. The NL East is tight -- the Braves are 17-21 and just four games out. Even if they get it together, the loss of Giles for eight weeks could cost them two or three crucial games. They needed several things to go right this year, but it hasn't worked out. Rafael Furcal, Chipper Jones, J.D. Drew and now Giles have been hurt. Mike Hampton, Adam LaRoche and Mark DeRosa have been terrible. John Thomson and Russ Ortiz have barely been adequate. Horacio Ramirez, Jaret Wright and Johnny Estrada have been great, but it just hasn't been enough to make up for the rest of the issues.

I believe the reign is now over -- it was a great run, they're entitled to a mulligan -- I'm not knocking the organization. The bigger question is whether or not they'll be able to reload for 2005, or if they'll have to tear it apart completely. It's hard to tell if this is the 1959 Yankees or the 1965 Yankees ... while the team isn't too old on the surface, the 1965 Yankees didn't look to be either. Joe Pepitone was just 24. Tony Kubek was 28 (and played terribly). Mickey Mantle was only a year older than Chipper Jones. Tom Tresh was just 27 and had a great year. Mel Stottlemyre was just 23, Al Downing 24 and Whitey Ford was 36 but still going strong. I don't think anyone thought the Yankees would completely implode in 1966 either.

I'm not saying that the Braves will be challenging the Devil Rays next year or anything. But the Braves farm system has not done a good job of late -- and it's a lot easier for a team to fall apart than most people think. I'm just saying that John Schuerholz needs to be careful here, that's all.

Cincinnati Reds -- Returned OF Austin Kearns from a rehabilitation assignment and reinstated him from the 15-day disabled list; outrighted OF Jason Romano to Louisville.

After 2002 I had penciled Kearns in my head for super-stardom. Generally, 22-year-olds don't hit .407/.500 (even in good hitter's parks) unless they are bound for greatness. There was a mitigating factor I missed though.

Kearns is injury-prone. In the majors and minors in 2001 he only played 65 games. He played 120 in 2002 and 85 last year. Now the broken forearm. These injuries aren't just a matter of lost production -- they are lost opportunities to develop and grow. Kearns stagnated last year, his OPS+ dropped from 130 to 113. I'll be watching him very closely this year to see if he can bounce back to his 2002 level -- and to see if he can stay in the lineup.

Arizona Diamondbacks -- Placed INF Greg Colbrunn on the 15-day disabled list (retroactive to May 16) due to tendinitis in his right wrist; recalled INF Scott Hairston from Triple-A Tucson.

Hairston is one of the top prospects in baseball. The 2B was hitting .375/.565 for Tucson, and turns 24 this coming Tuesday. His defense is still a little shaky (six errors in 28 games) and Arizona has recently been playing him in the outfield, but I think it's time to give him the second base job. Bob Brenly disagrees and continues to play Matt Kata (.315/.403 career, 422 AB), who has the advantage of being 26 months older than Hairston. If you aren't going to play Hairston, why bother calling him up?

Tampa Bay Devil Rays -- Recalled OF Jonny Gomes from Triple-A Durham and designated OF Midre Cummings for assignment. Cummings has cleared waivers and has until Friday to accept his assignment to Triple-A Durham. Optioned RHPs Jeremi Gonzalez and Chad Gaudin to Class AAA Durham and recalled RHP Rob Bell and RHP Jason Standridge from his rehab assignment and reinstated him from the 15-day DL. RHP Dicky Gonzalez has cleared waivers and has accepted his assignment to Triple-A Durham. Assigned 1B Fred McGriff to Triple-A Durham.

Gomes, 23, is the classic 'Three True Outcomes' player. In his three-year minor league career (entering 2004), 51% of his PA ended in a BB, K or HR. HBP were included in BB for the purpose of this discussion, as Gomes was hit by 49 pitches in 320 games. This year in Durham it was 53.4%. That includes nine HR in 73 AB and a .364/.740 line, Gomes has hit 72 HR in 1,186 minor league AB.

It looks like Gomes will be a PH for now, as he's not going to crack the Crawford-Baldelli-Cruz outfield and Tino Martinez and Robert Fick hold down the 1B/DH duties. Gomes did spell Martinez Wednesday against Boston, but I don't think that'll be a permanent change. He is a RHB though, so perhaps he'll get regular starts at DH vs. LHP.

It is likely that Gomes will be sent back down when McGriff comes up at the end of the month. Did you ever think a team would have room for three left-handed-hitting first basemen over the age of 30? I suppose if you're 11-28, it doesn't really matter that you let kids play though ...

By the way, Gomes has struck out three times in his first five PA (0-for-5), but he's faced Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke in four of the five trips, so I'll cut him some slack for now ...

I've always liked Gonzalez. That fantasy team loyalty can be quite a force, he was on my squad in the late 90s. I was really happy to see him have some success last year after not throwing a pitch in 2000 or 2001. I hope he gets himself straightened out in Durham -- I think he will, whenever a pitcher that I think is good pitches poorly, I immediately assume he's pitching through a minor injury -- this situation is no different.

Bell gets yet another chance. Another example of a pitcher with potential who was rushed to the majors before he was ready. Bell had only 18 starts above A ball (12 AA, 6 AAA) when he was thrust into the Cincinnati rotation in 2000. He didn't pitch terribly (7-8, 98 ERA+) but he was very wild (73 BB, 140 IP) compared to his minor league career. The following year he struggled, and after nine starts he was traded to the Rangers for Ruben Mateo and Edwin Encarnacion. He pretty much fell apart after that, and was finally released after the 2002 season.

He's been pitching great in Durham, 5-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 37 innings (eight walks). He's a great gamble for a team like Tampa Bay -- it's definitely not too late for Bell to have a good career.

Did anyone else forget that Midre Cummings existed?

Kansas City Royals -- Placed OF Aaron Guiel on the 15-day disabled list with blurred vision in his left eye. Purchased the contract of INF Wilton Guerrero from Triple-A Omaha. Designated RHP Joe Dawley for assignment.

Last week I mentioned that while I disagreed with the decision, I could understand that the Royals had to play Aaron Guiel rather than the struggling David DeJesus. But now Guiel is out, and I just can't understand playing Matt Stairs over DeJesus. Stairs is a nice player, an underrated hitter. He's also 36 years old. DeJesus has done everything he can in the minors -- it's time to get him to the majors and let him play every day. You're 10 games out; I don't care about not starting the arbitration clock at this point, he's 24-years-old -- let's start the major league development clock.

If you can't flip Stairs (there are several contending teams that could use a platoon OF/DH) at least put Stairs/Harvey/DeJesus on a two-of-the-three-play-each-day rotation vs. RHP and let DeJesus and Stairs alternate vs. LHP (with Harvey playing everyday).

Toronto Blue Jays -- Signed catcher Bobby Estalella to a minor league contract and assigned him to Syracuse of the International League (AAA).

I love this signing. I've always felt Estalella was worthy of a major-league job and now he's finally with an organization where he can get a fair shake. He'd be a nice compliment for Kevin Cash -- assuming Cash develops, he's hitting .293/.363 -- and he's a good insurance policy as well, Greg Myers is 38, who knows how much longer he'll be productive (assuming he comes back okay from the sprained ankle).

I know it seems like he's been around forever, but Estalella isn't 30 yet. He definitely hasn't been as abused as your typical 30-year-old catcher. Mike Stanley was 30 when he finally got his first 'real' major-league job (more than 250 AB in a season) and turned in a pretty nice career. I could see Estalella following a similar path.

New York Mets -- Designated RHP James Baldwin for assignment. Recalled RHP Matt Ginter from Triple-A Norfolk.

After pitching well in Norfolk, two big league starts were all it took for the Mets to realize James Baldwin doesn't fit into their plans. That's two more than most of the rest of the free world needed, but who's counting ...

Ginter, 26, was the #22 pick in the 1999 Draft. The White Sox flipped him to the Mets for Timo Perez late in spring training, a nice pickup for Jim Duquette. He was pitching very well in Norfolk (34.7 IP, 27 K, 4 BB, 1.56 ERA) and looked solid in his first start against the Cardinals Tuesday (5.7 IP, 4 K, 1 BB, 8 H, 2 R, 1 ER). Over his career he's pitched very well in the minors, but he's struggled in 105 major league innings, spread over 2000-03. But he hasn't been terrible, and the White Sox have had a tendency to rush their young pitchers. Shea Stadium is one of the better environments for a developing pitcher -- and I think he's ready to turn the corner.

Colorado Rockies -- Optioned IF Aaron Miles to Triple-A Colorado Springs. Recalled RHP Allan Simpson from Colorado Springs.

I thought Miles would show better, but .277/.361 in 97 AB for a team that plays in Coors Field just isn't getting it done. When you are a 27-year-old rookie, you need to get hot early, and Miles unfortunately didn't. Luis Gonzalez (not that one) gets the 2B job now. Gonzalez hasn't been that much better (.303/.436) -- basically he has three fewer AB, the same number of hits and walks, and two more HR. But he is 2 1/2 years younger, so he gets to stay.

Simpson, 26, gets his first shot at the show, and he throws hard (549 K, 296 BB in 503 minor league IP entering 2004). He came to the Rockies this winter from Seattle; for another minor league RHP, 24-year-old Chris Buglovsky, currently in AA.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Joe Dimino 2004-05-21T03:01:15+00:00 Comings and Goings (5/10-5/12) http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/comings-and-goings-510-512/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/comings-and-goings-510-512/#When:04:22:15 Pittsburgh Pirates - Placed outfielder Raul Mondesi on Major League Baseball's restricted list; purchased the contract of first baseman-outfielder Daryle Ward from Nashville of the Pacific Coast League (AAA).

What a mess this is for Mondesi. To summarize, Mario Guerrero, a former major league player & mentor to Mondesi, has won a judgement in the Domincan Republic for $640,000 against Mondesi. Guerrero won the judgement for helping Mondesi get to the big leagues. This type of verbal agreement is apparently commonplace in the DR.

There have allegedly been threats against his family (who are located in the DR) as well, police have said his wife could go to jail if the judgement isn't paid - which is why Mondesi left the club. Let's hope he can work things out; I'm confident this has nothing to do with the Pirates placing Mondesi's pay in escrow (a mechanism designed to protect him) and is not the result of any animosity towards the club. There was an interesting discussion of this at Baseball Think Factory.

From a baseball perspective, it looks like the Pirates are playing Rob Mackowiak instead of J.J. Davis in Mondesi's place; this is obvious lunacy. Mackowiak has been hitting fairly well, but he can play 3B. Chris Stynes, the incumbent 3B is a black hole offensively. The Pirates are 13-17 and heading nowhere fast, you'd think a 25-year old that hit .342/.525 in AAA in 2003 - in addtion to 23-for-29 base stealing - would warrant a position in the lineup more than a 31-year old 3B hitting .266/.307.

I used to think Dave Littlefield had a solid plan and it would just take time; after all, he was saddled with several albatross contracts and a limited budget. I can understand signing Mondesi cheap with the hopes of flipping him in July; though I disagree with it (giving playing time to the kids is more important). But when an opportunity like this comes along, a team in the Bucs' position must give a J.J. Davis playing time over a Chris Stynes.

I once thought Ward was going to be a solid regular. The chance of that ever happening is probably toast at this point; but he can still put up .320/.440 (he was hitting .328/.613 in 62 AB at Nashville). That makes him a useful PH/1B/LF and not a bad guy to have around if your regular gets hurt. He has no place on a team like the Pirates - they can't find room to play guys like Davis and Craig Wilson everyday. He would be a useful bench player on a good team, he's basically Tony Clark.

Minnesota Twins - Placed third baseman Corey Koskie on the 15-day disabled list with a strained sternum; activated pitcher Grant Balfour from the 15-day disabled list. Activated catcher-designated hitter Matthew LeCroy from the 15-day disabled list; placed infielder Nick Punto on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to May 9, with a strained left oblique muscle; purchased the contract of infielder Alex Prieto from Rochester of the International League (AAA); designated pitcher Carlos Pulido for assignment.

It looks like Michael Cuddyer will get another chance to show he deserves to play everyday as Koskie makes his annual pilgrimage to the DL. Koskie has only played more than 146 games once in his career. This time Koskie gets time off for a strained sternum, with a little bit of back stiffness for kicks. I've had a strained sternum, and you definitely cannot swing a baseball bat correctly with that bothering you. Throwing wouldn't exactly be painless either. Actually, you can't do much of anything that requires you to move. He was day-to-day originally, so I don't think he'll be out more than the 15 days, but we'll have to wait and see.

Balfour pitched as well as could be expected in his rehab work at Carolina (AA), fanning 9 of the 16 batters he faced. The others were 5-for-6 with a BB, a pretty strange split.

The Twins were 15-12 in LeCroy's absence, which unfortunately coincided with the loss of Joe Mauer. Another example of how losing one player, even a potential star, for a month just doesn't impact the W-L all that much. A star makes the difference of only one or two wins per month.

I read the following on Yahoo Sports: "Gardenhire doesn't want to use him (LeCroy) as the DH when Henry Blanco catches, if possible. Gardenhire wants LeCroy to be available in case Blanco gets hurt. So LeCroy might not resume his regular DH duties until injured catcher Joe Mauer returns."

That's terribly flawed strategy. What is the worst case scenario? Blanco gets hurt, so you have to move LeCroy from DH to catcher and your pitcher has to hit 2 or 3 times, assuming you don't pinch-hit for the spot at all. Assuming LeCroy is your best option at DH, why would you give up 4 of his PA every night on the off chance Blanco gets hurt once? I know the Twins have other options at DH, but that's not why Gardenhire said LeCroy would sit.

Boston Red Sox - Optioned pitcher Byung-Hyun Kim to Pawtucket of the International League (AAA). Recalled pitcher Jamie Brown from Pawtucket.

As I mentioned last time, I love B.K. Kim. He looked great in his first outing after returning from an inflamed shoulder. But Cleveland knocked him around twice last week (combined 6.7 IP, 8 R, 11 H, 4 BB, 2 K) and now he's headed to Pawtucket. From a statistical perspective, those two starts are not enough to warrant concern from me. He pitched badly twice, but it's not like he got hammered. He does only have four strikeouts in 11 2/3 IP since returning, which is troublesome (he's average 9.9/9 IP over his career); but it's 12 innings, small sample size indeed.

I haven't heard that he's still hurting, but it's entirely possible that he's not fully recovered. If that's that case, sending him to Pawtucket while he builds up strength makes sense. Bronson Arroyo is a reasonable alternative in the meantime.

But if this is simply a reaction to two bad starts (after one great one), I think it's an extreme overreaction. Kim has proven that he can pitch, show some confidence in him. Without full information it's impossible to give this move a thumbs up or down.

Brown came to the Red Sox from Cleveland for minor league infielder Angel Santos last June. He's 27, and has amazing control, evidenced by just two walks and 27 strikeouts in 38 innings at Pawtucket. For his minor league career, he's walked just 148 in 667 innings (486 strikeouts). Brown graduated with the Class of 2001 from Tommy John Surgery University. When healthy he's pitched well. He'll be used in long relief for now, but if Arroyo falters, it wouldn't shock me to see Brown in the rotation at some point. Call me crazy, but if things break right I think this guy could be a major surprise story this summer, though he's unlikely to get the chance.

Kansas City Royals - Optioned pitcher Mike MacDougal and outfielder David DeJesus to Omaha of the Pacific Coast League (AAA); recalled pitcher Justin Huisman and purchased the contract of outfielder Adrian Brown from Omaha; transferred pitcher Kyle Snyder to the 60-day disabled list.

MacDougal has had trouble getting it together this spring after battling a stomach ailment. I assume he'll be back once he builds some strength.

I discussed Huisman last week, I really like him - because he throws strikes. It looks like a closer by committee now (with Curtis Leskanic chairing the Committee), he won't be on the panel, but Huisman might actually be the best of the bunch.

DeJesus is the future in Kansas City, but he got off to a rough start (1-for-23) and he's back in Omaha. Normally, I'd say, "the teams stinks, so let the kid play." But the Royals have Aaron Guiel blocking the way, and they can't just stop playing him - even if he's been pretty bad this year. Both Guiel and DeJesus are left-handed too, so you can't platoon them. Ideally, Guiel (who is 31) would start to hit, and the Royals could move him to a contender with a hole in the outfield. This would free up a spot for DeJesus; letting him play every day in Omaha makes sense for now.

Baltimore Orioles - Activated second baseman Jerry Hairston from the 15-day disabled list; placed pitcher Matt Riley on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to May 10, with left shoulder tightness; recalled pitcher Daniel Cabrera from Bowie of the Eastern League (AA).

Brian Roberts has been very good so far this year (.366 OBP, 15/17 SB), so Hairston will be DHing for the time-being. Orioles fans are prevalent where I live, and they all seem to love Roberts. They may be lucky, he might actually be as good as some fans thought Bo Hart and Joe McEwing were.

Hairston made some progress last year, posting a .353 OBP in 58 games before he went down - I'm curious to see if it was real improvement. I'd imagine B.J. Surhoff will probably get some starts vs. righties at DH too. Lee Mazzilli should be careful with Roberts, even if he is the regular 2B for now, he should still get a day off here and there to avoid burnout.

Riley was off to a rough start, and now we know why - after the fact, injuries quite often explain pitcher ineffectivess. Cabrera turns 23 this month and was dominating (35 K, 11 H; 27.3 IP) in Bowie, his first exposure above A ball. He has some issues with his control, so I don't expect much yet; but he's definitely one for the O's fans to keep an eye on. He started the second game of Thursday's double-header in Chicago, which unfortunately was after this writing.

San Diego Padres - Activated infielder Jeff Cirillo from the 15-day disabled list; returned pitcher Jason Szuminski to the Chicago Cubs. Placed pitcher Antonio Osuna on the 15-day disabled list with a strained right groin; purchased the contract of pitcher Brandon Puffer from Portland of the Pacific Coast League (AAA).

Cirillo is 34 and is coming off two terrible years. I think it's safe to say that he's playing for his career at this point.

Osuna missed 3 weeks last year with a similar injury, so there's definitely reason to be concerned. With injuries it's easy to forget that these guys are actual people and these injuries really hurt . . . I can't imagine have a groin strain so bad that I couldn't pitch, let alone having that as a recurring injury! My condolences Antonio.

Szuminski was a Rule 5 pickup who looks like a decent pitcher, but was off to a rough start in San Diego. With Osuna going down and Puffer pitching very well in Portland it's understandable that a contender can't wait any longer for Szuminski to get it together. Someone had to go to make room for Cirillo (although I question the acquisition of Cirillo to begin with . . . ); Szuminski was the obvious choice.

Seattle Mariners - Placed pitcher Rafael Soriano on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to May 10, with a mild sprain of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow; recalled infielder Ramon Santiago from Tacoma of the Pacific Coast League (AAA).

Soriano is one of my favorite young pitchers, but this isn't good. He started the year with a strained oblique, was rushed back and hit hard in three appearances (7 hits, 4 runs in 2 innings) before being sent to the minors to build strength. Now it's a sprained elbow - who knows if that was caused by his compensating for the oblique? They are only expecting him to be out for three weeks, hopefully they let him take his time and work his way back to 100% this time around.

Santiago, 24, was hitting .180/.220/.284 for Tacoma, this coming off a .225/.284/.292 2003 in Detroit. Enrique Wilson is doing the Dance of Joy, as he is no longer the worst player in the major leagues! Santiago is also the worst defensive shortstop in baseball not named Derek Jeter; based on a weighted average of 2002/03 he costs his team about 20 runs per 162 games with his fielding.

Arizona Diamondbacks - Placed pitcher Oscar Villarreal on the 15-day disabled list with a right flexor strain; recalled pitcher Andrew Good from Tucson of the Pacific Coast League (AAA).

Villareal is one of the top young relievers in the game. He pitched in 86 games as a 21-year old in 2003 and was on pace for 86 more this year when he went down. Note to Bob Brenly - take it easy on the kid!

Detroit Tigers - Placed second baseman Fernando Vina on the 15-day disabled list with a strained right hamstring; purchased the contract of infielder Jason Smith from Toledo of the International League (AAA); transferred pitcher Lino Urdaneta to 60-day disabled list.

Who could have seen this coming? Vina is 35 and he did miss 3-months with a torn hamstring last year. The Tigers made some good moves in the off-season, but this one didn't make any sense (unless the Tigers could trade him for something this summer). Vina hasn't been a good player since 2001, and he was coming off a major injury.

Omar Infante will take over at 2B. He's just 22 and off to a nice start in limited playing time - if he can maintain it, Vina should be Wally Pipped. The Yankee fan in me dreads a trade for Vina to 'solve' the 2B problem, but it could happen.

Toronto Blue Jays - Acquired infielder Frank Menechino from the Oakland Athletics for cash considerations or a player to be named. Placed pitcher Justin Speier on the 15-day disabled list with right elbow soreness; recalled pitcher Aquilino Lopez from Syracuse of the International League (AAA).

It's not apparent at this writing whether Menechino will report to Toronto or Syracuse, but I don't get this one either way. Menechino is 33 and hasn't hit since 2001 (he's 3-for-33 this year). Orlando Hudson and Chris Woodward are both hitting really well. Howie Clark and Dave Berg are capable backups. More capable than Menechino anyway, which is all that matters. Dominic Rich, the Jays' 24-year old AA 2B is probably a better player than Menechino at this point. If I were in Toronto, I wouldn't give up a 12-pack for Menechino. Well maybe a 12-pack of light beer, but no way I'm giving up the good stuff.

Despite his early struggles, Lopez is a good pitcher, he was pitching well at Syracuse and there shouldn't be any dropoff with Speier out. The Jays have put together a deep, solid if unspectacular bullpen; Jason Kershner needs to come around or he could be the odd man out when Speier returns.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Placed infielder-outfielder Eduardo Perez on the 15-day disabled list with a torn left Achilles tendon;
recalled infielder-outfielder Damian Rolls from Durham of the International League (AAA).

This is a bummer on a personal level. Eduardo Perez crushes left-handed pitching (.418/.657 over 2002/03). He's on my main Diamond-Mind team, and he's basically Albert Pujols when a lefty is on the hill. As for the Devil Rays, it really doesn't matter since they are terrible - he was wasted there. Perez would have been a perfect platoon outfielder/firstbaseman (Perez can also play some 3B too in a pinch too) for a contender with a hole and now the Devil Rays won't be able to trade him in July. As for the injury I can't imagine the odds of a successful recovery for a 34-year old with a torn achilles is very good.

Rolls, a first round pick of the Dodgers in 1996, is 26 and is a career .296/.350 hitter; it's fair to call him a disappointment at this point.

Chicago Cubs - Agreed to terms with shortstop Rey Ordonez on a minor league contract.

Wow. Who'dve thought it would come to this - that Cub fans would miss Alex Gonzalez? Gonzalez is nothing special, but he did have 57 extra-base hits last year. Over the course of his career Rey-Rey gets 57 every 1130 AB.

Oakland Athletics - Activated infielder Mark McLemore from the 15-day disabled list; optioned infielder Frank Menechino to Sacramento of Pacific Coast League (AAA) (later traded to Toronto).

McLemore will be 40 in October. He suffered a huge decline last year, so obviously he needs to get off to a hot start if he wants to extend his career.

We covered Menechino earlier, needless to say, but I think Billy Beane made the correct move here - assuming the cash considerations will cover a couple of those 4-packs of Guiness cans with the co2 balls . . .

Texas Rangers - Placed pitcher Doug Brocail on the 15-day disabled list following an appendectomy; recalled pitcher Frank Francisco from Frisco of the Texas League (AA).

Did anyone else realize Doug Brocail was back in the majors (for the first time since 2000)? I missed that one, wow!

Try saying: "Frank Francisco from Frisco," 5 times really fast . . .

He's an interesting pitcher though. After posting an 8.41 ERA in 6 starts Frisco last year, Francisco was moved to the bullpen for 2004 with exciting results so far: 30 strikeouts and 7 hits allowed in 17 2/3 IP for a 2.55 ERA. I think it's crazy to bring him to the majors without ever having thrown a pitch in AAA, but let's see how it goes.

In the interest of completeness, here are the other moves - about which I don't have anything particularly interesting to say:

Atlanta Braves - Announced that outfielder Damon Hollins cleared waivers and accepted an assignment to Richmond of the International League (AAA). Activated pitcher Armando Almanza from the 15-day disabled list; designated pitcher Will Cunnane for assignment.

Cincinnati Reds - Purchased the contract of pitcher Mike Matthews from Louisville of the International League (AAA).

Florida Marlins - Optioned pitcher Franklyn Gracesqui to Albuquerque of the Pacific Coast League (AAA); purchased the contract of pitcher Toby Borland from Albuquerque; transferred pitcher A.J. Burnett from the 15-day to the 60-day disabled list.

Milwaukee Brewers - Purchased the contract of pitcher Matt Wise from Indianapolis of the International League (AAA); designated pitcher Adrian Hernandez for assignment. Signed outfielder Joel Rivera.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Joe Dimino 2004-05-14T04:22:15+00:00 This Can’t be Happening http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/this-cant-be-happening/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/this-cant-be-happening/#When:02:45:15
Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Joe Dimino 2004-05-06T02:45:15+00:00