The Hardball Times -- Jeremiah Oshan http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-17T08:57:15+00:00 Twisting Oliver: Second-half All Stars http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-second-half-all-stars/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-second-half-all-stars/#When:07:29:15
Anyway, I figured with All-Star teams being announced this week—and baseball hitting the official halfway mark—that this would be a good time to do something straightforward like pick Oliver's second-half All-Star teams. I will choose both American and National league squads but won't allow myself to be constricted by the need to find players from all 30 teams.

Instead, I'll pick starters, one backup and one intriguing trade target for each position (three outfielders, five starting pitchers and two relievers).

I'll start with American League this week and do the National League next week.

Catcher


Mike Napoli: We're still overestimating his playing time (no other catcher is projected to surpass his 327 plate appearances), but at least he's the full-time starter for now. So, you do have to take his numbers with a grain of salt. Still, Oliver is projecting 18 homers, 45 runs and 54 RBIs with a totally acceptable .272 batting average from here on out. Believe it or not, using the Tom Tango formula, that would put him a significant tick above Joe Mauer in overall value.

Joe Mauer: In something I'd deem a rather significant surprise, the Twins catcher comes in a somewhat distant second in projected value. (It's also worth noting that they are way ahead of No. 3 Victor Martinez.) Mauer's numbers certainly aren't bad (eight homers, 42 RBIs, 43 runs and a .322 batting average) and considering he's projected to garner the same number of plate appearances as Napoli, probably a tad more realistic.

Matt Wieters: I'm sure a lot of people have started to give up on the man who was supposed to be the Orioles' savior (he's now below 60 percent ownership in ESPN leagues), but Oliver still thinks his season is salvageable. Oliver projects him to be the fifth-most-valuable catcher with seven homers, 32 RBIs, 31 runs and a .282 batting average.

First base


Miguel Cabrera: There really isn't any AL competition for second-half starter as the Tigers first baseman is far and away Oliver's favorite going forward. His 60 projected RBIs are the most in baseball. Those will go along nicely with his 19 projected homers, 48 projected runs and .314 batting average.

Mark Teixeira: Oliver definitely considers the crop of NL first basemen to be significantly better, but the Yankees first baseman won't exactly disappoint. His 17 projected homers, 55 RBIs, 47 runs and .284 batting average leave him as just the sixth-ranked player at his position overall, although quite a bit better than the No. 3 AL 1B, Justin Morneau.

Billy Butler: As you'd probably expect, most of the players Oliver likes at this position are the big names. The Royals 1B is the closest thing. His projected 44 RBIs and .297 batting average are his biggest strengths.

Second base


Robinson Cano: Even before Dustin Pedroia's injury was taken into account, the Yankees 2B was the better projected finisher. His 12 projected homers, 49 RBIs, 41 runs and .300 average would be acceptable no matter what position they were coming out of.

Ian Kinsler: There is always an inherent injury risk with the Rangers 2B, and we seem to have taken that into account with our projection (his 258 projected PAs are the lowest of any 2B in the top 20), but he still comes in as the No. 2 player at his position (once you also account for Pedroia's injury). Despite somewhat limited playing time, Oliver projects eight homers, 32 RBIs, 10 steals and 35 runs.

Aaron Hill: Easily one of the bigger disappointments of the year, Oliver still thinks he can put together a decent finish, highlighted by 11 homers and 42 RBIs. He's a little two-dimensional in that sense, but you could do a lot worse if you're looking to upgrade.

Third base


Alex Rodriguez/Evan Longoria: There might not be two players at the same position that Oliver projects so similarly. In almost all the standard 5x5 fantasy categories, they are nearly indistinguishable. A-Rod gets the slight edge with three more projected steals (six to three). They are both projected to hit 16 homers, drive in around 50 (49 for Rodriguez; 53 for Longoria), score about 45 runs (46 for A-Rod; 45 for Longoria) and hit about .280 (.279 and .281, respectively).

Michael Young: The Rangers 3B has quietly had a very good fantasy season and Oliver projects that to essentially continue. None of the numbers really jump out (seven homers, 38 RBIs, 38 runs and a .299 BA), but they are solid across the board.

Shortstop


Derek Jeter: I don't know about you, but I just keep waiting for the Yankees SS to hit the wall. Oliver certainly doesn't seem to think it will be now. He wouldn't even be the backup on the NL side, but those six homers, 35 RBIs, 39 runs and .294 BA are good enough to start in the AL.

Elvis Andrus: Oliver's outlook for the Rangers youngster has steadily improved to the point that he's almost pulled even with Jeter in overall projected value. That's mainly on the strength of those 18 SBs and 41 runs, but the .274 BA doesn't hurt.

Alexei Ramirez: Not exactly a breakout candidate or a bonafide sleeper, he's the kind of guy many owners just don't get excited about. Those eight projected homers and 37 RBIs are nothing to sneeze at, though, and could probably be had relatively cheap.

Outfield


Ichiro Suzuki, Nelson Cruz and Ben Zobrist: Whatever I may have said about Ichiro in my first column, you can totally ignore that. I'll just say my calculations were bad and were properly derided. In any case, Suzuki's projected .322 BA is tied for the best in baseball and his 11 steals give him a nice boost in the value department. Cruz, who is now healthy, is expected to pick up where he left off with a closing kick of 16 HRs, 47 RBIs, seven SBs and 41 runs. Zobrist takes over for Shin Soo-Choo, who's projected well but won't come close to meeting his playing time projections if he misses six to eight weeks as believed. Zobrist has rebounded nicely from a slow start and should continue along at his current rate, with 11 projected HRs, 41 RBIs and seven SBs.

Nick Markakis: You can do a lot worse than this for a fourth outfielder and he's actually been pretty decent since a horrible first few weeks. Oliver doesn't foresee him magically regaining his power or anything (just eight more HRs) but it does seem him picking up the RBI pace (40 more) and continuing to hit for a decent average (.294).

Carlos Quentin: The White Sox outfielder's batting average (.229) has really dragged down his value, but his power is still there. If Oliver is right and he can essentially maintain his power numbers (projected 15 HRs, 45 RBIs) and get his average up just a bit (.253) he'll be considerably more valuable.

Starting pitchers


Colby Lewis, Zack Greinke, CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez: If you've been following this column, you no doubt realize that Oliver is in love with Lewis. Nothing he has done up to now has dissuaded Oliver from that point of view as it projects a 7-3 record, 3.05 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 86 Ks. Greinke is projected to toss more innings (104 to 94) and strike out more batters (98), but is not quite as strong in WHIP (1.16) and ERA (3.34). Sabathia is in essentially the same boat (3.22 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 91 Ks). Verlander's value is mainly derived from his strikeouts (110) as his WHIP (1.24) and ERA (3.60) are not as impressive. Fernandez comes in just a hair ahead of teammate Cliff Lee, mainly as a result of more strikeouts (96 to 76), but a higher ERA (3.34 for Felix; 3.07 for Lee) and higher WHIP (1.21 and 1.11, respectively).

Max Scherzer: This is the player I'd target for acquisition as his disastrous start has already shown signs of being forgotten. His projected ERA of 3.74 and 1.25 WHIP won't win categories, but are plenty good enough when you consider his projected K/9 rate of 9.15.

Relief pitchers


Jose Valverde and Rafael Soriano: Oliver doesn't seem too high on any of the AL relievers, but both of these guys are certainly solid. Valverde is projected to come back to earth, but that 3.37 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8.68 K/9 are still the best projected numbers for AL relievers. Soriano's rate numbers are actually better (3.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.47 K/9), but is beaten out because of IP projections (32 to 37).

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The reality is that most of the guys on this list should perform strong in at least a couple categories, but stay with me. What I'll be trying to do is find players whom Oliver projects will specifically perform well in one of the five standard 5x5 pitching categories.

Saves


Leo Nunez: The Marlins' closer may not be very high on your list in terms of bankable closers despite his hot start (2.28 ERA and 9.51 K/9 despite career marks of 4.44 and 6.70, respectively). Oliver doesn't necessarily believe he'll keep up his current rate (projected finish of 3.96 ERA and 7.44 K/9), but it does see him notching 26 saves the rest of the way, which is tied for the best in baseball.

Matt Capps: One of the players Oliver projects to share the saves lead is the Nationals' current closer. Capps isn't quite performing above his career norms to the degree that Nunez is, but Oliver does see some regression in both his ERA (3.94 the rest of the season) and K/9 (7.19). It also sees him collecting 26 saves for a much-improved Nationals team.

Matt Lindstrom: The Astros' closer definitely has the look of a player who can sustain his current pace. His career ERA of 3.81 and K/9 of 7.58 are pretty on point with his current marks of 3.33 and 7.77, respectively. That said, Oliver actually sees a regression in ERA (4.39), but still sees him successfully closing out 24 games (ninth best). If you can take the ERA hit, he's probably one of the cheaper closers out there.

Wins


Colby Lewis: After a pretty impressive start, the Rangers starter has started to come back to earth a bit. Oliver remains bullish. Lewis is projected to win nine more games this year, while posting an ERA of 3.13 and striking out 8.19 batters per nine innings. The nine wins is the 11th-best total Oliver projects.

Shaun Marcum: The Blue Jays starter has been one of the season's pleasant surprises during his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. I'm a little skeptical that he can register the 134 innings we're currently projecting. If he does, though, Oliver projects nine wins to go along with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He's not going to strike a bunch of guys out, but Oliver says he'll improve upon his current rate of 6.86 (to 7.17).

Mark Buehrle: Never a sexy option, the White Sox hurler is quietly having a decent season despite a 3-6 record. Oliver projects the record to improve, joining the logjam with a projected nine wins, even if it sees him regressing in ERA (4.04 the rest of the way after a 3.63 so far this year).

ERA

Stephen Strasburg: I realize the Nationals starter's debut will likely have his price at an all-time high, but it does bear reminding that Oliver absolutely loves this guy. If there's a way to get your hands on him before he debuts, I highly recommend it. Even if he only gets the 55 innings we're currently projecting, those will be some spectacular frames. Oliver projects a 2.71 ERA. Oliver is also projecting a K/9 of 10.13, which is the third-highest rate it projects for any pitcher.

Luke Gregerson: I've talked about the Padres middle reliever on several occasions, but even if the Padres hold onto Heath Bell and Gregerson never gets to close, he'll still have some value in the rate stats. His projected rest of season ERA of 3.03 is the eighth-lowest. If your league is counting holds, he's just that much more valuable.

Mat Latos: I have to admit that my suggestions on the young Padres pitcher have been all over the place. I recommended drafting him, suggested selling high and now I'm telling you that he's a great guy to have if you need to lower your team ERA. The only thing that really keeps his value relatively low is his projected 89 innings. I don't quite know what to make of that, but his projected ERA of 3.14 is the fifth-lowest of any starter.

WHIP


Ted Lilly: The Cubs starter has been a little unlucky on the W-L front (1-5), but you could argue that he's probably gotten a little lucky on ERA (3.69 despite a xFIP of 4.86). Well, Oliver projects improvement almost across the board, including WHIP. In fact, his projected 1.11 WHIP is the 10th-lowest and fifth-lowest among pitchers projected to pitch at least 80 innings the rest of the season.

Sergio Romo: Like with ERA, there's a good argument to be made for stocking your team with solid middle relievers in an effort to win the rate categories. The Giants middle reliever probably isn't going to close, but his 1.14 WHIP will certainly help. Romo comes with the added bonus of not hurting you much in ERA (3.31) and even pitching in a little on strikeouts (8.45 K/9).

Matt Thornton: I probably could have put the White Sox setup man in the ERA category, too, but he works well here. Many think there's a decent chance that he'll end up closing before the season is out. Even if that's not the case, his 1.14 WHIP (tied for 15th-lowest in Oliver projections) will come in handy.

Strikeouts


Jonathan Sanchez: There have been glimpses of the Giants lefty's potential genius for several years. Now, we're getting a full view. His 2.63 ERA and 8.96 K/9 are spectacular. Realistically, he's probably not available in your league. Still, I'm putting him on here because there aren't a lot of great undiscovered resources for a sexy stat like Ks and his projected total of 143 is the fifth-highest. His projected 3.97 ERA and 1.35 WHIP aren't great, but not so bad to make you worried about acquiring him.

Max Scherzer: In his first game back from the minors, the Tigers starter struck out 14 in 5.2 innings. If that doesn't prove that he's at least capable of helping you as a one-category dynamo, I'm not sure what will. Oliver projects a 3.82 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, which won't hurt, but you'll want him for those 125 strikeouts that are the 16th-highest projected total.

Brett Myers: The Astros starter is still owned in just 12 percent of ESPN leagues despite a 3.04 ERA and solid strikeout numbers (59 in 74 innings). I'm sure his 1.39 WHIP has something to do with that, but if strikeouts are what you're after he's probably as good as you'll find on the waiver wire. He's projected to strike out 123 the rest of the season, which is the 20th-highest total. Do be aware that his ERA is projected to rise significantly (4.58) and his WHIP isn't going to get any better (1.38)

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What I'll be doing today is going through the five batting categories in a standard 5x5 setup and giving you a few players who are projected to provide significant help in those categories. Many of these players will likely come at the cost of hurting you somewhere else, but ... we do what we can, right?

Home runs

Carlos Pena: The Rays first baseman is absolutely killing you in batting average right now (batting .177), but he's still hitting a decent number of long balls (eight) and driving in some runs (31). Oliver definitely doesn't see any Triple Crown contention in his future (.232 batting average the rest of the season). It does, however, see him slightly increasing his homer pace, projecting 26 homers the rest of the way. That's the fourth-best projection in all of baseball, and he's probably available for a reasonable price.

Jay Bruce: The Reds outfielder hasn't exactly been having the sophomore breakout some had predicted (.273 batting average, seven homers, 24 RBIs). No, Oliver is not predicting a breakout. It does like him for 22 homers the rest of the way, which is 14th most.

RBIs

Adam Lind: The Blue Jays outfielder has been a pretty big disappointment this year (.224 batting average, seven homers and 26 RBIs). Oliver projects him to right the ship, somewhat, and hit .271 the rest of the way. More importantly, it likes him for 66 RBIs, which would be the 19th-best total in baseball.

Aaron Hill: Lind's teammate is having an even worse start to his season, hitting .163. The power is there, though (eight homers), even if the RBIs aren't (17 RBIs). Oliver sees him considerably ramping up his run production, projecting 63 RBIs. That would be the fourth-best total for second basemen.

Runs

I'll be entirely honest, Oliver's "Rest of Season" runs leaders basically reads like a who's who of fantasy baseball. Not a lot of surprises anywhere in there that are particularly useful. You don't need Oliver to tell you that Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun are going to score a lot of runs this year.

Stolen bases

Nyjer Morgan: If you drafted the Nationals outfielder assuming your SBs were taken care of, you're probably a bit disappointed (nine so far). That .242 batting average isn't exactly endearing him to anyone, either. Well, Oliver projects a much more useful finish. Not only does it project him to hit a downright respectable .279, but it also likes him for 22 steals.

Brett Gardner: So far, the Yankees outfielder has been a pleasant surprise. He's stolen 18 bases (fourth best in baseball) and has scored 38 runs. Oliver doesn't foresee him keeping up the run-scoring pace, but it does like him for 28 more steals, which is the fifth-highest projected total.

Batting average

Vladimir Guerrero: A couple years ago, I wouldn't have bothered listing the Rangers designated hitter on this list. He's currently hitting .328 and has looked like a rejuvenated man. I put him here mainly as a way of saying that Oliver believes that at least the average is real. We're only projecting 334 plate appearances, which speaks to his perceived fragility, but he'll make the most out of them. Oliver projects a .306 batting average, which is the ninth highest.

Martin Prado: The Braves second baseman is another player who's off to a surprising start (.325 batting average and 37 runs). He's also another player Oliver is showing some faith in, making him one of the 14 players it projects to finish the season batting at least .300. Oliver foresees a .302 batting average the rest of the way.

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What I'll be doing today is going through five players who I think are currently undervalued and five more who are overvalued based mostly on their Oliver projections. I'll also attempt to assess what kind of value they may draw. You'll probably disagree with some of my assessments. (I know some of you definitely did with last week's column regarding pitchers.) So, bear with me. The main thing I would hope you take away from it isn't so much my attempts at assessing trade value, but Oliver's projections as run through the Tom Tango ranking system.

I'm not going to waste your time by telling you that Jose Guillen is bound to fall off—I'm willing to bet players like him have very little trade value. In some cases, I'm going to suggest going after players who are not going to keep up their current pace but who I think may still be undervalued. In other cases, I'm going to talk about players who will still be good but not quite as good as I think the hype would have you believe.

Selling lemons


Austin Jackson: I'm in one league where half of the owners are convinced the Tigers outfielder is the second coming. They see his prospect status, his .337 average, 31 runs and six stolen bases and they have visions of Ichiro Suzuki running through their heads. If you own him, capitalize on those perceptions. He's currently the 34th-best offensive player, but Oliver projects him to finish as the 184th-best. His .265 batting average, nearly 1:4 walk-to-strikeout ratio, nine stolen bases and 53 runs that Oliver projects are hardly the stats of a fantasy starter and may not even make him worthy of a roster spot. I'm sure you could get Nyjer Morgan (31 SBs, .287 average and 63 runs) and could probably do considerably better.

Colby Rasmus: Sense a theme? Another young guy who's off to a good start who Oliver thinks could be due for a considerable fall-off is a great trade candidate. He's already hit seven homers and driven in 25. Plus, he plays on a great offense; what's not to like? Well, Oliver is not impressed. We're projecting 473 more at-bats and still Oliver sees just 55 more runs and 56 more RBIs. Right now, he's rated as the 68th-best player, but Oliver projects him finishing out as the 174th. Could you swap him for Michael Young (currently 79th, but slated to finish out as the 46th-best)? I bet you could.

Elvis Andrus: OK, OK, I promise this will be the last young player on whom I'm harshing your buzz. If you own Andrus, as I do in one league, you know that he's been great, especially lately. You know, as well as Oliver does, that he's not going to continue being the 17th-best player. Probably the most remarkable thing about his start is the nearly 1:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio he's currently rocking. That .312 average, 17 steals and 30 runs aren't bad either. It's now time to cash in those chips, though. Oliver foresees his BB:K ratio reverting to a much more expected 37:85, and the rest of his numbers (other than steals) will likely drop along with it. That .262 average, 27 steals and 57 runs aren't useless from your shortstop, but they are way off what you're currently getting. If you can get someone like Jason Bartlett (currently 129th, but projected to finish out as No. 83) you'll be much better off.

Vladimir Guerrero: See! No one can accuse me of picking just on young'ins. Guerrero has been proving his critics wrong all year, bashing 10 homers and 37 RBIs while posting a .341 batting average (making him the fourth-best player). Well, Oliver is not impressed. Oliver foresees just 15 more homers and 58 more RBIs and a ranking of 80th. Those aren't bad numbers, but why not try to upgrade?. Combined with the not-so-distant memories of his glory days, I'm willing to bet he would fetch a decent return.Torii Hunter has a very similar rough profile, is off to a decent start (currently ranked 30th), but projects to be much more stable (finishing out as No. 31), mainly on the strength of similar power numbers but more steals (14-3) and more runs (63-49).

Carlos Gonzalez: I guess there's a middle ground between the two types of players I've been talking about, and CarGo represents that pretty well. He's off to a strong start (28 RBIs, .303 batting average and 25 runs for a ranking of 40th) that seems to suggest he's well on his way to fulfilling the promise he's been showing for several years. Well, Oliver has a different vision. Oliver projects significant fall-off in all those areas (just 59 more runs, 55 RBIs and a .269 batting average for a ranking of 100th). Adam Dunn would seem to be a solid exchange (currently 100th, but trending toward 41st).

Buying bargains


Adrian Gonzalez: The Padres first baseman is not playing poorly (nine homers and 26 RBIs for a ranking of 70th), which likely means his price is still pretty high. Almost whatever you have to pay, though, Oliver projects that you'll be happy. Oliver is usually pretty conservative, but it's projecting MVP-like numbers from here on out—94 RBIs, 33 homers and a .298 average. I'm not going to try to figure out what it would take to get him, but do whatever you have to.

Pablo Sandoval: I think the Kung Fu Panda probably fits the more classic profile of a buy-low candidate. After a breakout season, he's off to a slow start (just three homers and 14 RBIs, good for a ranking of 114th) and owners are probably getting a little antsy. No one is just going to give up on him, but if you offer something that seems like fair value (maybe someone like Josh Hamilton, current rank 37th but projected to finish out as No. 86, maybe). Sandoval is projected to finish up strong with 16 homers, 72 RBIs and a .318 batting average, and a ranking of 29th.

Alex Rios: The White Sox outfielder was one of our draft-day bargains at the beginning of the season. So far, he's making those who got him early look pretty smart with eight homers, 21 RBIs and 13 steals for a ranking of ninth. This is one of those guys who many owners believe is a sell-high candidate. No, he's not going to keep up that pace, but he's probably going to be a lot better than many people think. He's projected to hit 12 homers and steal 19 more bases while sporting a batting average of .281 the rest of the way. If you can get him without having to spend too much, maybe someone like Brett Gardner, who's projected to finish as the 106th best player but is currently the 14th, he's still a great buy.

Nick Markakis: The Orioles outfielder was supposed to continue his recent play, but has instead gotten off to a slow start (just two homers and 14 RBIs, despite a .305 batting average and a ranking of 104th). Well, Oliver isn't ready to give up on him and neither should you. Despite predicting a slight decline in batting average (.297), Oliver projects that he'll finish the season as the 41st-best batter (12 homers, 62 RBIs and 63 runs the rest of the way). Has Chase Headley (currently ranked 55th) shown enough to fetch Markakis? Maybe not, but Alfonso Soriano (currently ranked 28th but projected to finish out as 89th) surely has.

Gordon Beckham: Big things were expected out of the White Sox infielder this year. His slow start (one homer, nine RBIs and a .187 batting average good for a ranking of 180 among batters) has many owners dropping him (he's down to about 50 percent ownership in ESPN leagues). If he's available, pick him up. Assuming he can show enough to stay with the big club, Oliver likes his chances to finish strong (11 homers, 57 RBIs, 59 runs, eight steals and a .275 batting average would make him the 67th-best batter the rest of the way). I wouldn't give up much, but maybe someone like Ryan Theriot would do the trick.

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One must consider a player's draft status, what kind of personality traits the opposing owner possesses and other various issues that aren't as easy as measuring performance.

Every player has a price, or at least they should. Figuring out which ones are worth paying for is always key.

When putting together this list of pitchers, I tried to take into consideration not just whether a given player will outperform or underperform their current pace, but also weight the relevance of that information. For instance, saying that Brad Penny is a sell-high candidate is fine in theory, but I have yet to meet someone who would be willing to pay for him as if he was the 28th-best pitcher in baseball (as his current pace suggests). For that matter, I'm willing to bet that he's one of those rare players who is almost impossible to trade because he's playing too well.

Hopefully, you get the idea.

As usual, whenever I reference where a player ranks, it's based on the Tom Tango formula.

Buyer beware (but don't tell them that)

Mat Latos: If you've been reading this column, you may find the fact that the San Diego Padres pitcher appears in this category surprising. This is where the unscientific portion of my goal comes, in, though. While it is true that Latos was essentially a draft-day afterthought in many leagues (ADP in ESPN: 212), he was hardly an unknown commodity. Coming off his near perfect game (the only baserunner was an infield single), the hype surrounding this guy has never been higher. I own him in two leagues and have already fielded several offers. So far, he's been the 35th-best pitcher in baseball. Oliver projects him to finish out as the 66th (3.49 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 83 strikeouts). Obviously, if you took him with one of the final picks in your draft, if he performs to even that modest level of success, you should consider him a solid investment. Still, if someone makes you an offer that you like, say someone like the underperforming Wandy Rodriguez or suddenly stable Jonathan Sanchez (I'll have more on them later), you should feel free to pull the trigger.

Andy Pettitte: Maybe this is a little bit of a stretch since the Yankees starter is on the downside of his career and not exactly a fantasy-baseball crush (ADP 195), but I'm willing to bet there are buyers out there. Pettitte has essentially been performing like a top-20 pitcher and still plays for one of the best teams in baseball. Surely, someone is willing to pay a decent premium for that. Oliver projects Pettitte to finish out the season as the 80th-best pitcher (4.06 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and an 8-7 record). If you can grab a Jeff Niemann (projected as the 44th-best pitcher from here on out), John Danks (No. 31) or Shaun Marcum (No. 28), I say make the deal and never look back.

David Price: Like Latos, there are some serious caveats that need to go along with the Rays starter. Most importantly, please ignore this if you are in some kind of keeper league. Also, Oliver is not projecting for Price to fall apart (he's projected to finish out, respectably, as the 43rd-best pitcher). Still, he's pitching like a top-15 pitcher and the hype machine is currently working overtime. If you are ever going to get a serious return on your investment, this might be the time to cash in. Oliver projects a Rest of Season line of 3.72 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and less than a 2:1 K:BB ratio. If you can grab someone like Matt Garza (No. 23 from here on out), Josh Johnson (No. 13) or one of the truly elite pitchers like Felix Hernandez (No. 11), you'd be crazy not to make the deal.

Ricky Romero: I think the Blue Jays starter might fit the classic mold of this kind of column almost perfectly. He's had some reasonable success before, is off to a blazing start and is bound to cool off. The value here lies in just how much Oliver projects him to cool. Keeping in mind that Oliver, for whatever reason, has been really down on Romero from the get-go, but Oliver has him finishing out the year as 175th-best pitcher (5.09 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 7-9 record). Right now, he's pitching like someone in the top 10. If you believe in Oliver, getting value on Romero basically means convincing someone to give you a bucket of wet hair in exchange for not wasting a roster spot on him. I'm willing to bet you can get more than that. Ian Kennedy (projected to finish out the season as the 76th-best pitcher), Phil Hughes (No. 33) or even Oliver's crush Colby Lewis (No. 6) would all seem to be players that could be had.

Francisco Liriano: Owners were definitely skeptical on draft day (ADP 210), but I'm willing to bet his hot start has erased many doubts. He's throwing like the top-25 pitcher many have been waiting for and he might even be able to fetch a price that is better than that. Oliver projects a considerable fall-off (4.22 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, an 8-7 record are among the stats that would drive him down to the 68th-best pitcher in baseball). Could you get Cole Hamels (39th), James Shields (36th) or Jake Peavy (29th)? Definitely. You might even be able to get someone like Yovani Gallardo (26th) or Tommy Hanson (19th).

Buy, buy, buy

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlins pitcher has had an up-and-down start to the season (currently ranked 42nd). I wouldn't expect anyone who drafted him (ADP 93) to get fed up with him, yet I do think that owners may be getting antsy. Oliver projects a stronger finish (3.67 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, better than 4:1 K:BB and a 10-7 record) that would make him the 12th-best pitcher for the rest of the season. I basically acquired him for Geovany Soto in one league. If you can get him for someone like that, I say make the deal.

Josh Beckett: If Nolasco has been up-and-down, the Red Sox starter has been a virtual bottomless pit (currently ranked 112th). OK, that's not fair since he has had a couple decent outings. Either way, he's been far from reliable, most recently getting shelled for nine runs in 5.1 innings against the Yankees. I have to imagine owners are getting mighty itchy about trading him and would welcome any reasonable offer. If you can get him, Oliver projects that you would almost certainly come out a winner, as he's projected to finish out the season as the 22nd-best pitcher (3.88 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and about a 4:1 K:BB ratio).

Wandy Rodriguez: Although the Astros starter's upside is not as high as the other two guys on this list, Oliver does project a much strong finish. After a slow start that has him as the 90th-best pitcher in baseball, Oliver projects a finish in the top 40 (3.93 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 139 Ks). Those aren't the kind of numbers you build a fantasy rotation around, and he does play for one of the worst teams in baseball, but he's probably available and probably at a lower price than the other guys on this list. Could you get him for Tim Hudson? I'm willing to bet yes.

Jonathan Sanchez: The Giants starter is not projected to equal his hot start, that should come as little surprise. The degree to which that is true might be, though. Sanchez is projected to be a top-50 pitcher the rest of the season (4.09 ERA, 9.3 K/9 and a 9-7 record) after compiling numbers that made him the 31st-best pitcher so far. I'm willing to bet many owners are expecting a considerable drop off and would probably move him for someone who's off to a comparably strong start but is perceived to be more sustainable. Maybe Dallas Braden (62nd), Barry Zito (71st) or Jaime Garcia (86th) would do the trick.

Ubaldo Jimenez: Up to this point, Jimenez has been the best pitcher in baseball. Why would you buy a player like this? Considering his draft status (ADP: 93), there were definitely some doubts. There are probably a lot of owners that believe they are selling high. In a sense, they are—Jimenez's value is probably going down. The relevant issue, though, is how much you have to pay to get him. Jimenez's drop-off is projected to be reasonable (20th-best from here on out) and if you can get him for someone perceived to be more stable or have a better upside, then that's a deal you should make. I wouldn't be shocked to see someone like Liriano or Roy Oswalt bring Jimenez in return.

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Among the highlights have been pitchers such as Colby Lewis (currently the 24th-best pitcher using the Tom Tango system) and Ian Kennedy (who's 46th, at least prior to Sunday's game). Oliver's best calls on the offensive side were Alex Rios (currently 23rd using the same formula), Nelson Cruz (who's ranked No. 32 despite missing more than a dozen games with an injury) and Franklin Gutierrez (who's quietly having a pretty decent season and ranks No. 53).

Of course, it hasn't all been peaches and cream with Oliver projections. Among the more disappointing performers have been Ben Zobrist (coming in at No. 106 and still homerless), Curtis Granderson (who's batting just .225 with his new team), Jake Peavy (his last start was helpful, but he's still ranked No. 69) and Max Scherzer (a complete disaster his last three outings and is ranked No. 101 out of the 116 pitchers who currently qualify for the ERA title).

What I love about Oliver, though, is that it's constantly evolving. So a player's current performance factors into what it projects for the rest of the season. Basically, it inputs the player's latest stats and runs it through the same formula it used at the beginning of the season.

This can mean different things for different players. For someone like Rick Porcello, whose 7.50 ERA and 1.87 WHIP are weighted against just one full season worth of major league work and relatively little minor league data, it means that Oliver's projections aren't nearly as rosy as they were to start the season. For a player like Zobrist, and his more impressive past major league performances, Oliver projects a strong finish.

I've selected 10 players to highlight, both guys who have performed up to snuff and guys who have flailed. Since we're mostly concerned about moving forward, though, I'll focus on how Oliver projects their numbers for the rest of the season.

Starting strong, getting stronger


Nelson Cruz: Oliver projected that the Rangers outfielder would be among the top 40 offensive players. Despite an injury that has limited him to 74 plate appearances, his hot start still puts him in that kind of neighborhood. More importantly, Oliver sees an equally strong finish with projections of 34 more homers, 92 more RBIs and 17 more steals that would make him a top 10 offensive player the rest of the way. He's supposedly nearing his return, so this could be the last time you can grab him.

Colby Lewis: If you've been reading this column, you know that Oliver kind of has a thing for the Rangers starting pitcher. If you were smart enough to take that advice early, you've been reasonably rewarded. Lewis has already turned in one gem (nine IP, zero runs, 10 Ks, four baserunners) and struck out at least 10 on three separate occasions. As tempting as it may be to sell high, Oliver projects that to be a mistake. It actually projects even better numbers to close out the season, with a 3.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and a better than 5:1 K:BB ratio (all improvements over what he's doing now).

Slow starters, strong finishers

Ben Zobrist: One of the real breakout stars of last year has gotten off to a slow start. He's hitting just .265 (which is actually about where Oliver projected him), but he's still homerless, has just 13 RBIs and has already struck out 24 times. Still, Oliver foresees a brighter future. Oliver projects 23 homers, 79 RBIs, 84 runs and a .283 batting average the rest of the way. Using the Tango ranking system, that would put him among the top 25 offensive players.

Max Scherzer: I own him in two leagues, so I know how frustrating the Tigers starting pitcher has been this year. After a third straight disappointing start, I know how tempting it is to cut and run. Oliver is pleading for patience, though. It projects a respectable 3.87 ERA, a tempting 172 strikeouts and a reasonable 1.27 WHIP the rest of the way.

Jake Peavy: You can take whatever I said about Scherzer and let it go doubly for Peavy. At least with Scherzer, you probably didn't have to waste a particularly high pick (ADP of 158). With Peavy, though, it was probably several rounds earlier (ADP 104) and therefore that much more painful. Oliver foresees a strong finish here as well, although not quite as strong as Scherzer's (3.86 ERA, 146 Ks and 1.30 WHIP).

Reasonable expectations
Adam Dunn: Always a polarizing player, the Nationals first baseman is showcasing those exact qualities early in the season. Although he's got six homers, he's barely hitting .230 and has already struck out 32 times. Oliver isn't exactly predicting great things the rest of the way, but it does seem to think he'll perform at a level we've come to expect: 33 more homers, 91 more RBIs and an OPS of .939.

Rajai Davis: Your view of the A's outfielder's start is probably colored by where you drafted him. If you were lucky enough to grab him late, you're probably fine overlooking that .236 batting average and nonexistant power. The only reason you should have drafted him anyway is steals and runs, and so far he's producing just fine in those areas with 12 steals and 16 runs. As long as you maintain the proper perspective, Oliver projects similar levels of satisfaction with 40 more steals and 63 more runs to go along with a .274 batting average.

Clay Buchholz: The Red Sox starter is another player on whom your opinion is probably based on expectation. If you've been drafting him year after year expecting him to flash the dominance he showed with that no-hitter he threw as a rookie, you're probably disappointed. If you grabbed him late, merely hoping to have a solid pitcher who plays in front of a very capable defense that will also help him pick up some wins, you're probably just fine with his 3.82 ERA, three wins and 25 strikeouts. If you maintain those expectations, Oliver thinks you'll continue to be satisfied. Oliver projects a 3.84 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, an 8-6 record and 112 Ks, which would make him a top-70 pitcher the rest of the way.

Sell-high candidates


Alex Rios: A year after he was bad enough to be released by his team, Oliver saw some promise in the White Sox outfielder. Oliver considered him a top-70 offensive player. So far, he's exceeded that expectation comfortably with a ranking in the top 25. There's bound to be some regression, but Oliver still sees a a finish in top 75 offensive players and a perfectly respectable 13 homers, 22 steals and .273 batting average. Still, I'd say deal him if you have the chance.

Ian Kennedy: The Diamondbacks starter has been solid this season. You'd be excused for thinking that automatically means Oliver's projections would have him trending up. I don't pretend to fully understand Oliver's inner workings, I mainly just try to report on its findings. So, I'm not quite sure what to make of this Rest of Season projection: 4.21 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7-6 record and 105 Ks. Those aren't horrible numbers, but they aren't really what I would have expected, either. Oh well, sometimes you just have to go with your gut.

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I'm in one points-based league in which one of the members recently let loose with a tirade bemoaning the fact that we have three starting slots for relievers (mainly because he's tired of getting saddled with negative-point performances). This puts a big premium on owning consistent relievers.

I'm in another head-to-head league in which it's somewhat common to use at least one of the two mandated reliever slots on starters who are reliever eligible. Relievers are far less important in this league, obviously, yet no team in the league's 10 years has won the title without using two relievers on a regular basis.

While the impact of relievers certainly varies in each league, it never hurts to know which relievers are capable of having the most impact—both positive and negative.

Almost all of the relievers I reference here will be owned in at least 75 percent of ESPN leagues—and many of them will essentially be universally owned—but I've found that no matter what kind of league I'm in, relievers are among the easiest players to acquire via trade. Almost any owner is willing to swap a startable position player or starting pitcher in exchange for a solid reliever.

As usual, I'll be running Oliver's "Rest of Season" projections through Tom Tango's system when referencing ranking. For pitchers, it's calculated as (2*W)+ Sv + (K/5) + IP - (H + BB + ER)/2. The rankings are raw and not corrected for position scarcity.

Relievers you really need to get

These two guys will probably cost you too much, but if you can wrangle them away, they'll probably be worth the price.

Jonathan Broxton (Pitcher ranking: 28; Overall ranking: 111): He's the only reliever in the top 30 among pitchers and the only one in the top 125 among all players. Unfortunately, he was also, on average, the second reliever taken in drafts (ADP of 61.9 in ESPN leagues) behind only Mariano Rivera (who's the fourth highest-rated reliever). Broxton projects to pick up 31 more saves (tied for 10th) and 80 more strikeouts (second only to Carlos Marmol's 90), according to Oliver.

Carlos Marmol (PR: 40; OR: 140): The Cubs reliever has been absolutely electric this year, posting a 16.97 K/9 and and ERA of 0.77 while going 3-for-4 in save opportunities through Saturday's games. That may hinder your ability to acquire him, but there is hope: Marmol was, on average, the 17th reliever taken in ESPN drafts. In fact, he's one of the few closers whose projected overall ranking is actually better than his ADP (175.8). Even if you have to give up a little more than you'd prefer, there's probably not a better value out there in terms of closers.

Relievers worth chasing

This group is full of guys who are probably attainable, and worth a reasonable gamble.

Heath Bell (PR: 39; OR: 138): On average, the Padres closer was the sixth closer off the board in ESPN drafts, with an ADP of 107.7. No one is going to give him away. Still, if he can be acquired, he projects to be the second-best reliever for the rest of the season. His projected 3.01 ERA is the third best among relievers; the 1.15 WHIP is the fifth lowest among relievers; the 64 projected Ks is fourth best among relievers; and the 32 saves is tied for first. Unlike some of the other pitchers on this list, his numbers come with a very attainable projection of 62 IP the rest of the way.

Billy Wagner (PR: 45; OR: 152): We know all about the Braves closer and his deficiencies—basically that he's a big gamble in terms of health. Oliver's raw system (meaning it's not getting inputs from the humans who project playing time) projected just about 40 IP from Wagner. Right now, the "Rest of Year" system is projecting 63 more innings from him. It's going to be tough for him to reach that number, even if he stays healthy, so consider these numbers in that context. With all those caveats, he's another one of the rare pitchers whose overall ranking is better than his ADP (154.7). I don't think he's worth breaking the bank over, but we're projecting 32 more saves (tied for first) and 69 strikeouts (fourth). Those are strong numbers and if Wagner manages to stay healthy all year, he could be a bargain.

Rafael Soriano (PR: 51; OR: 167): The Rays closer suffers from some of the same perceptions as Wagner, in that he's dealt with his fair share of injuries. Oliver's raw projections were much more kind, though, in terms of innings, projecting about 53 IP. With that in mind, our "Rest of Season" projection of 58 IP doesn't seem so outlandish, although I have to admit it's a little high. We project 32 saves (tied for first), 62 strikeouts (10th among relievers), a 3.47 ERA (10th among relievers) and a 1.19 WHIP (10th among relievers). He projects as the sixth-best reliever from here on out. He's already got five saves, which may drive up his price.

The newly minted

This group of relievers only recently took over the job. Since some of these players only got their jobs recently, I figured their rankings wouldn't tell us much so I didn't include them in this group.

Franklin Morales: Of all the the relievers I researched (basically anyone who is likely to get saves this year), he was the worst. He's already blown two saves as Huston Street's replacement and Oliver doesn't see any reason to suggest this is out of the ordinary. He projects to have a 5.12 ERA the rest of the way to go along with a 1.61 WHIP. Run as far away as you can.

Alfredo Simon: Although he hasn't registered a save yet, it appears as if he's going to take over for the recently demoted Jim Johnson. This is probably somewhat pointless since the Orioles are bad enough that there won't be many save opportunities, but just in case you were considering adding Simon—DON'T! Oliver projects a 6.14 ERA and a K:BB ratio of 5.6:3.6.

Evan Meek: I don't know that he's officially been named closer yet, but it seems only a matter of time with Octavio Dotel's constant struggles. If he gets the job, he's probably worth a look. That 4.17 ERA doesn't look too bad, although probably his best number. He projects less than a 41:27 K:BB ratio and a 1.44 WHIP.

Neftali Feliz: Unlike these others guys, there was actually a decent chance he was already owned in your league before he was named closer. Oddly, he's kind of struggled in the role, allowing six earned runs in his past five appearances. Still, he projects as a solid reliever with a 3.78 ERA (24th among relievers); 57 Ks (20th) and a 1.31 WHIP (37th). Not numbers that will blow anyone away, but they should be solid enough to nail down the vast majority of his save opportunities. Keep in mind, though, that Frank Francisco has been pitching better since being demoted and it wouldn't be at all strange for him to regain his old job.

Relievers worth a look

As you might have guessed, a significant amount of relievers' values comes from their ability to get saves. This, obviously, is very much a product of opportunity and not necessarily indicative of any particular skill. For the next group of pitchers, I ran the Tango formula without saves. My goal was to come up with a ranking system for relievers that attempts to assess value regardless of opportunity. The rankings reflect only their rank among relievers minus saves. Most of these guys are stuck behind solid closers, but in case of injury they become almost instant must-adds.

Matt Thornton (Rank: 6): The man blocking the White Sox setup man, Bobby Jenks, is ranked 30th on this list. Thornton projects to have better a better ERA (3.21 to 3.74), more strikeouts (64-49) and a better WHIP (1.14 to 1.25) than man who's getting all the glory. Luckily, Jenks is currently sporting a 5.00 ERA and unless he gets his walks under control (currently 6.00 per 9), he's going to end up blowing some leads and probably lose his role. If that happens, add Thornton as soon as possible.

Luke Gregerson (Rank: 11): Unfortunately, the chances of the Padres middle reliever are almost entirely predicated on Bell getting hurt, and possibly even Mike Adams being unable to do the job (Gregerson is supposedly third on the closer's depth chart). Still, his non-save numbers project nicely a 3.24 ERA (eighth among relievers); 58 Ks (17th); and a 1.23 WHIP (14th). If your league counts holds, he's definitely worth owning.

Takashi Saito (Rank: 12): One of the best things the former closer has going for him is the fragility of the man pitching the ninth on his team (Wagner). Saito is going to get some saves, and probably more than the one we're currently projecting. The 40-year-old projects a 3.64 ERA (18th among relievers); 1.24 WHIP (17th) and 62 strikeouts (eighth). If you have room, he's probably worth stashing on your bench.

Sergio Romo (Rank: 13): The Giants' young setup man quietly had a pretty decent year in 2009. In just 34 innings after getting promoted from Triple-A, he post a 10.85 K/9 and 2.91 BB/9, while giving up just one homer. It's unclear how serious the recent groin injury Brian Wilson suffered is and equally unclear who will fill in for him, but Romo projects at having the skill set to take over. The 3.25 ERA is ninth among relievers; the 1.14 WHIP is fourth and the 53 strikeouts are 28th. Jeremy Affeldt, the other obvious candidate, also projects reasonably well, with a 3.84 ERA, 7.7 K/9 ratio and 1.30 WHIP. I'd say either player is worth picking up if it ever becomes clear which will assume closer duties.

Mike Adams (Rank: 15): Whatever I wrote about Gregerson, it goes doubly for Adams (who is supposedly the next in line for the closer's job). If that happens, though, Adams projects to recover nicely from his unlucky start (4.50 ERA, despite a 1.20 WHIP and nearly 4:1 K:BB ratio). Oliver projects a 3.07 ERA (fourth best among relievers), 1.15 WHIP (eighth) and 49 strikeouts (33rd).

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jeremiah Oshan 2010-05-03T08:57:15+00:00 Twisting Oliver: Mirage or oasis http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-mirage-or-oasis/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-mirage-or-oasis/#When:08:31:15 Ben Zobrist. One even turned out to be Albert Pujols once upon a time. Usually, they end up being Chris Shelton.

With Oliver's "Rest of Season" projections making their working debut, I figured it was time to take a closer look at the 10 most added players over the past week in ESPN leagues. As usual, I'll use the Tango calculations to determine general values of players.

Jose Guillen (plus 65 percent)
For better or for worse, the Kansas City outfielder is a pretty well-known commodity. He has nearly 6,000 major league plate appearances to his name, and has alternated between barely useful fantasy asset to completely useless. In his good years, he'll get you 20-plus homers and drive in about 85-95 runs, and score about 80 more. Nothing to turn your nose up at in many leagues but hardly worth getting excited over either. When he's not good, however, he doesn't do much but take up space and drag down your batting average. Before a single pitch was thrown, the numbers suggested he'd come in around the 182nd-best offensive player. Olivers sees about 15 more homers and 57 more RBIs, which would make him about the 190th-best offensive player.

Ricky Romero (plus 46 percent)
I don't know exactly how Oliver works (I'm merely reporting its results), but I get the impression that it's probably too early for anything to change its mind much. That said, Oliver was really down on Romero to start the season and it has improved its outlook somewhat. Of course, in Romero's case that means adjusting its projected ERA down from 5.62 to 5.20 and bringing his projected K/9 rate up from 6.39 to 6.57. Both sets of numbers obviously represent a significant dropoff from his current 1.57 ERA and 8.61 K/9 rate. I get the sense that there's probably a decent market out there for Romero and he seems to fit the classic sell-high model.

Kevin Gregg (plus 34 percent)
It should come as no surprise that the Blue Jays' new closer is among the most added players in baseball. All indications are that he has the closer's job for as long as he can handle it, thus making most of the projections moot. Oliver has him at seven saves the rest of the way, which is probably way off. Even if he barely meets Oliver's projected line of 4.23 ERA and a K/BB ratio of about 2:1, he'll end up with at least 20 saves and maybe a bunch more. He managed to save 23 games last year despite playing for a bad team, posting a worse ERA (4.72) and a slightly better K:BB ratio (9.31:3.93).

Scott Podsednik (plus 32 percent)
Remember what I just said about it being too early for Oliver to change its mind? Well, the speedy Kansas City outfielder may be the exception. At the start of the season, Oliver projected him to be about the 135th-best offensive player, or barely worth owning. He now projects around 87th, largely on the strength of an improved outlook on stolen bases (Oliver projects 19 more after projecting just 20 at the start of the season) and batting average (up to .289 from .271). My personal biases steer me away from players like Podsednik, but if he's still available for pennies on the dollar he's worth a gamble.

Ivan Rodriguez (plus 31 percent)
The Washington catcher pretty much falls into the same category as Guillen for me. Rodriguez is now three full seasons removed from the last time he was relevant from a fantasy perspective. He's hitting .444 with a .600 SLG right now. Obviously, he's not going to come anywhere near that. Oliver actually seems to think he's merely accumulating his stats early, downgrading his overall rating from 231 to 238 since the start of the season. He projects at a .255 batting average and a .370 SLG. I doubt he has much value on the open market. If you have him, ride him as long as he's hot and then find a realistic longterm solution.

Cameron Maybin (plus 30 percent)
I at least understand this one. The Marlins' one-time top prospect is finally hitting, and providing hope that he can attain the glory that has so far eluded him. Oliver is not so optimistic, projecting a .256 batting average the rest of the way, which is actually a tad lower than what it predicted at the start of the season (.258). Oliver also projects nine more homers, 53 RBIs and 11 stolen bases, which are fine numbers, I suppose, but won't make him worthy of a roster spot. There's probably not much to lose by holding onto Maybin on the off chance that he really has figured it out.

Josh Willingham (plus 29 percent)
Of all the players on this list, the Washington outfielder projected the best numbers at the start of the season. Oliver's projections slapped him with the 118th-best offensive numbers. I imagine his track record is keeping his strong start from boosting that projection. The reality is that Willingham's most useful fantasy season came during his first full year when he was largely eligible at catcher, even though he only caught a total of 14 innings. Back then, his 26 homers and 74 RBIs were quite a bounty. He's essentially put up very similar numbers ever since but lost his catcher eligibility. This is all just a long way of saying that Oliver's projected line the rest of the season (16 homers, 60 RBIs, .257 batting average) should really come as no surprise despite his .592 SLG 15 games into the season.

Alex Gonzalez (plus 27 percent)
At the start of the season, the Toronto shortstop projected as the 22nd-best shortstop option. After a five-homer, 11-RBI, .627-SLG start to the season, Oliver projects him to finish out as the 26th-best option. Basically, Oliver seems to suggest that Gonzalez's best days are well behind him (from a seasonal standpoint, at least). The projections have 12 homers and 57 RBI (which isn't bad, actually), but say he'll hit .242 and steal two bases the rest of the way. Hope you got the most out of that start.

Brad Penny (plus 24 percent)
While the St. Louis pitcher was mostly ignored at drafts (he's still barely owned in over half of leagues), Oliver was quietly projecting a perfectly adequate season. A 4.67 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in about 170 IP was the projection. Those numbers are actually lower now (4.45 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) after a 2-0 start in which he's allowed a total of three earned runs in 21 innings. What should make his start especially intriguing is that Oliver projected those numbers while also projecting a K/9 of 5.56, which is almost exactly what Penny's been doing so far (5.57). To me, this suggests a promising start (factoring in some obvious regression).

Mike Pelfrey (plus 23 percent)
Like Penny, the Mets pitcher was basically ignored on draft day, as he's still owned in less than 25 percent of leagues. Unlike Penny, Oliver was not even a little optimistic with Pelfrey (predicted 4.94 ERA, 1.54 WHIP). Pelfrey's start has helped revise those numbers downward (4.76 ERA, 1.50 WHIP), but still not quite in ownable territory.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jeremiah Oshan 2010-04-23T08:31:15+00:00 Twisting Oliver: Gettin’ while the gettin’s good http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-gettin-while-the-gettins-good/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-gettin-while-the-gettins-good/#When:07:07:15 this great site that seems to do a lot of the heaving lifting for you. So, after much consternation (I actually wrote a column and scrapped it), I decided to use that information instead to draw up a list of players worth targeting in trades.

If Oliver is right, these players will probably be largely off limits within a few weeks. For all the players I list, I'll give the Average Draft Position in ESPN Live Drafts and their ranking in Last Player Picked based on Oliver's "Rest of Year" projections. The league setting I used was based on a 12-team, both-league format with three starting middle infielders, three corner infielders, five outfielders, two catchers, a utility and nine pitchers.

Matt Wieters (ADP: 87.5; Ranking: 19th)

I'm not going to try to convince you that Wieters is going to, in fact, be the 19th-most-valuable player. What I can tell you with much more confidence is that Oliver is projecting him to essentially perform at the same level as Victor Martinez (ADP 47.2) and better than Brian McCann (ADP 42.4). If you offered one of those two players straight up for Wieters, I'm guessing the other owner would jump at it. Chances are, you could probably even get a little something extra in return. Either way, you'd end up with a switch-hitting catcher who's still just 23 and trending in the right direction. He's not ripping the cover off the ball yet, but he's posting a .402 on-base percentage. I wouldn't bat an eye at trading either of those guys for Wieters.

Tommy Hanson (ADP: 77.8; Ranking: 28th)

Another young stud who could be ripe for the picking. Unlike Wieters, I don't know that the ranking is that far off. We're projecting a 3.54 ERA (30th) to go along with a robust 192 strikeouts (12th). Yovani Gallardo (ranked 54th) went, on average, about 10 picks earlier. Adam Wainwright (59) went almost 30 picks earlier. Neither project numbers as good as Hanson, plus Gallardo has battled injuries and Wainwright is about five years older. I'd definitely support trading either of those straight up for Hanson.

Ben Zobrist (ADP: 64.5; Ranking: 33)

The Rays' Jack of all trades is off to a bit of a slow start, which makes him a little more attainable. I'm not suggesting that you try to steal him from an owner who's already on the lookout for those kinds of offers, though. Rather, offer up someone like Dustin Pedroia (ADP: 30.8; Rank: 52). Pedroia projects a better batting average (.299 to .263), but Zobrist has the better run-production numbers (26 homers to 13, 89 RBIs to 75 and 93 runs to 83). I'd say this is another good candidate to get a little extra something thrown in, too.

Cole Hamels (ADP: 95.3; Ranking: 37)

I own Hamels in several leagues and have been a longtime supporter, so I understand how tough his slow start has been on owners. I'm willing to bet most owners aren't as patient as me. Josh Johnson went, on average, about 20 picks earlier but projects about 35 spots lower. They actually project numbers that are very similar across the board, with one exception being Hamels' better walk rate (2.20 BB/9 to 2.65 BB/9). We project very similar win totals (13 for Hamels, as compared to 12 for Johnson), but as we've already seen this season, Hamels is probably going to get bailed out by his offense much more frequently.

Nelson Cruz (ADP: 62.7; Ranking: 38)

He's off to one of the best starts in baseball, so maybe he's not as attainable as some of the other guys on this list. Still, he doesn't exactly have a long track record and some owners will be convinced they're selling high. Don't be afraid to be the guy who they think they're ripping off. Grady Sizemore, to pick one name, went about 30 picks earlier but ranks about 15 spots lower. Oliver projects Cruz to out-homer Sizemore 35-26 and out-RBI him 100-83, while staying competitive in runs (90-86) and even keeping it close in stolen bases (23-13). They even project nearly identical batting averages (.264 for Cruz, .263 for Sizemore).

Colby Lewis (ADP: 260; Ranking: 8th)

I know this is probably starting to sound like I'm beating a dead horse here, but after Lewis' start (2-0, 2.19 ERA, 13 strikeouts in 12.1 innings) I have to believe that time is running out if you want to get him on the cheap. Chances are you don't have to give up anything other than the last guy on your roster right now. Even if he's owned, you can probably have him for your fifth outfielder or sixth starter. I still have some serious doubts about him performing at the level Oliver projects, but he really doesn't have to come that close for him to have serious value.

Cody Ross (ADP: 204.7; Ranking: 65th)

If there's a hitter's equivalent to Lewis in Oliver's eyes, it's probably Ross. He's off to a a decent start, but certainly not one that will make anyone clutch him in the face of a fair offer. I honestly don't know what to say in terms of a fair offer, maybe Hunter Pence (ADP: 106, Ranking: 129). But you could probably get him for a lot less. Ross projects 30 homers and 103 RBIs. Those aren't the kind of numbers you can usually find on the waiver wire.

Stephen Strasburg (ADP: 203.3; Ranking: 81st)

They hype is building and it's only going to get worse. Your best chance is probably that whoever owns him will get antsy waiting another few weeks until he gets his call-up. I'd try throwing out a solid closer, maybe someone like David Aardsma (ADP: 181). I'm not saying sell the farm, but any player you don't absolutely need immediately should be a worthy candidate.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jeremiah Oshan 2010-04-16T07:07:15+00:00 Twisting Oliver: The best of the rest http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-the-best-of-the-rest/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/twisting-oliver-the-best-of-the-rest/#When:08:24:15 advice and not changing course just yet.

Of course, every team can use tweaking, and if there's real value sitting on your waiver wire or free-agent list, you probably don't have much to lose by acting early.

With that in mind, here are a few of the players who are available in at least 50 percent of both ESPN and Yahoo leagues that Oliver projects as being useful fantasy contributors.

Some notes, once again, about the the two types of rankings I'll be using when discussing pitchers.

One of them I used a version of last week when discussing undervalued pitchers. In that one, I rank all the players in Oliver's "Rest of Year Forecast" in each of the 5x5 rotisserie categories. I then add those up and take the average. The players are then ordered by that average. Now that Oliver includes Wins and Saves, I'll use all five categories to get an average. I'll refer to these as 5x5.

The other ranking system you may already be familiar with, as it was brought to my attention in the comments of my undervalued batters column from two weeks ago. It was apparently the winner of a Tom Tango contest and it goes like this: 2*W + SV + K/5 + IP - (H + BB + ER)/2, for pitchers. These will be called Tango.

The point, once again, is that these rankings are not perfect but do serve as a decent window into finding valuable players whose stats in one category or another may not jump out at you but who have strong value across the board. I include two different rankings for precisely this reason.

For batters, I dispensed with the rankings since the fact of the matter is most of the players with legitimate across-the-board value have been scooped up in most leagues. Aside from a few stragglers, the batters I discuss here have value because they play a relatively shallow fantasy position or have obvious value in specific categories.

Pitchers



Colby Lewis (6, 5x5; 8, Tango)
If you've read any of my previous columns, you know that Oliver is pretty optimistic about Lewis' return to the majors. I don't plan on making him a staple of this column, but since he's available in at least 97 percent of Yahoo and ESPN leagues, he bears mentioning again. Look, the price is never going to be better. You can probably pick him up at the cost of cutting the last player on your bench. I'm not suggesting that he will, in fact, be a top-10 pitcher this year, but if he comes anywhere near his projected line of 3.10 ERA (sixth), 165 Ks (33rd) and 1.09 WHIP (fifth), you'll look like your league's oracle. He makes his debut tonight against punchless Seattle; don't wait to see how he does and risk someone picking him up on a lark. UPDATE: Lewis tossed seven innings, allowed one run, gave up five hits, walked four and struck out four to pick up the win.

Shaun Marcum (43, 5x5; 56, Tango)
In his first major league game since 2008, the Blue Jays starter allowed three baserunners, struck out six and settled for a no-decision in seven innings. While not exactly predicting a Cy Young, Oliver seems to think that start is reasonably indicative of what we can expect of Marcum. There's no one category in his projection that draws your attention, but he's pretty steady across the board. I'm a little skeptical that he'll pitch the 180 IP we're projecting, but if he can stay healthy Oliver suggests a line of 4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 12 wins and 125 Ks, which certainly makes him intriguing in weeks that he'll get two starts or face weak lineups. He's still available in at least 65 percent of Yahoo and ESPN leagues.

Ian Kennedy (62, 5x5; 67, Tango)
This is another player I pumped up in my undervalued pitchers column. He's still available in well over 90 percent of leagues, so I'm guessing not too many people took my advice. The biggest concern I'd have is, again, that projected IP of 160. That would be a career high. His previous best was the 159.1 IP in 2007, when he shot through three levels of the minors before finishing the season with three starts in Yankees pinstripes. Since then, his stock has fallen dramatically, and he was traded to the D'backs as part of the Curtis Granderson three-way trade. Oliver likes him for 10 wins, a 3.76 ERA (67th), 1.31 WHIP and 155 Ks. Those numbers won't blow you away, but they're solid enough for the back end of your fantasy rotation. By the way, he looked pretty good in his debut Wednesday. He essentially threw one bad pitch that was hit for a three-run homer. He recovered, striking out eight and finishing five innings without giving up another run to salvage a no-decision.

Joel Pineiro (66, 5x5; 65, Tango)
No one gets excited about the Angels' newest starter, and I can't blame them. His value is really derived from an ability to limit walks (projected 1.15 BB/99) and eat innings (200 IP). His projected 4.12 ERA and 1.30 WHIP are admittedly pedestrian. Those are useful attributes, though, when scouting players to fill out your rotation. If he hits those numbers, I'd be willing to bet he outperforms the 10 wins Oliver projects. He's available in a little more than half of leagues.

Batters



Russell Branyan
The fact that he's injured is probably adding to the Indians first baseman's availability, but I'm a little surprised that a guy who's coming off 31-homer campaign is still available in almost 90 percent of Yahoo and ESPN leagues. Obviously, his game has flaws, and Oliver projects a whopping 172 Ks, but it also projects 36 homers (fifth-most in baseball) and 99 RBIs (18th). The key for him is whether he'll get the nearly 600 plate appearances we project. Again, though, we're talking about making room on your roster by dropping whoever your worst player is. I sincerely doubt any projection system has that player finishing in the top five in homers.

Matt LaPorta
Truth be told, I found far fewer batters who I felt were legitimately worth mentioning here and had to reach, I must admit. The Indians first baseman, who is probably moving back to the outfield once Branyan is healthy, is here as much for his potential as for the line he actually projects. Oliver suggest a line of 25 HRs, 88 RBIs and 79 runs to go along with a .250 batting average. I don't know if those numbers alone warrant inclusion on your roster, but he's going to get playing time for the rebuilding team and he slugged .530 in Triple-A last year. He's available in about 85 percent of leagues.

Casey Blake
I realize I need to focus on some players who are in the more shallow positions, and according to Oliver the Dodgers third baseman is probably the best out there who fits that criteria and is actually available. Using those rankings, using Tom Tango's system (HR + SB + (H - .27*AB) + R/3 + RBI/3) he's rated as the 13th-best third base option and is available in more than 90 percent of ESPN leagues but only about 40 percent of Yahoo leagues. He projects a line of 20 homers, 79 RBIs and a .270 average. Nothing to get excited about but enough to keep you treading water until you find a better solution.

Kevin Kouzmanoff
Similar to Blake, Kouzmanoff is more place holder than candidate for permanent starter. Still, there's a good chance he'll end up hitting in the middle of the A's lineup all season, and the 86 RBIs Oliver projects are the sixth-most among third basemen. Oliver also projects 22 homers, which ranks him ninth at his position. Tango's system rates him one spot behind Blake. He's still available in at least 60 percent of leagues.

Kelly Shoppach
I guess you could call him the poor man's Mike Napoli. Like Napoli, the Rays catcher is stuck in a platoon with someone with fewer fantasy-helpful numbers. Our projections seem to be taking that into account, though, and see just 415 plate appearances. In that limited time, Oliver projects 19 homers—more than all but three catchers—and 61 RBIs. If he ever wins the starting job outright, watch out. His .477 projected SLG is 53rd in all of baseball. He's available in more than 95 percent of leagues.

Luis Valbuena
Kelly Johnson has the name recognition, and after his two-homer game on Wednesday, he's been pretty widely picked up. Well, the Indians middle infielder actually projects to put up better numbers and is available in about 98 percent of leagues. He also has the added bonus of being eligible at both second base and shortstop. His 14 projected homers are ninth among second basemen and his 68 RBIs are 10th. That .245 batting average is pretty unsightly, but beggars can't be choosers, right?

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jeremiah Oshan 2010-04-09T08:24:15+00:00