The Hardball Times -- Jim McLennan http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-17T08:57:15+00:00 Offseason decisions: The Diamondbacks have it easy http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/offseason-decisions-the-diamondbacks-have-it-easy/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/offseason-decisions-the-diamondbacks-have-it-easy/#When:06:35:15 One of a series on dilemmas facing major league teams this winter.

The Diamondbacks come into the offseason with fewer issues needing to be handled than for quite some time. The turnaround in 2011 was certainly unexpected, but in the end, they won the National League West by a comfortable margin, and have no major free-agent departures to replace this winter. There will likely be some fine-tuning from GM Kevin Towers, but it looks likely that the Opening Day roster in 2012 will be similar, if not to the Opening Day roster in 2011, than the postseason roster from this October.

Of those 25 men, 23 are currently signed by the Diamondbacks for next year. The sole exceptions are backup first baseman Lyle Overbay and pinch-hitter Sean Burroughs. The latter should probably have been Comeback Player of the Year, simply for coming from so far back. Lance Berkman wasn't eating out of Las Vegas garbage cans last year. Burroughs was. To go from that to second in the majors for pinch-hits seems a unique achievement.

However, he will probably start 2012 back in the minors, as the D-backs await, with hope and a little trepidation. the return of shortstop Stephen Drew. Drew broke his ankle in a nasty freak accident at home plate, and also underwent surgery for a sports hernia recently. His status for Opening Day remains uncertain, and likely won't be known until spring training. That's really the only question-mark concerning the Diamondbacks' starting position players, and explains why the team chose to re-sign both Willie Bloomquist and John McDonald. Alternatively, Towers could be trying to corner the market in scrappiness.

Second-base was addressed by inking Aaron Hill to a two-year, $11 million contract, negotiated after the team declined the $8 million option for Hill's services. The Diamondbacks will be looking for something like the form he showed after his trade from Toronto. In 33 games for Arizona, he had a line of 315/.386/.492, compared to just 225/.270/.313 with the Blue Jays. If Hill hadn't been signed, the team would probably have moved Ryan Roberts to second, and looked for a third basemen on the free-agent or trade market. This shift no longer is necessary.

With a bench of Bloomquist, McDonald, Henry Blanco and Geoff Blum—yeah, Kevin Towers loves him some veteran goodness—there's only one spot apparently left. That may well be a left-handed first-baseman, to back up Paul Goldschmidt, who looked credible enough after making the leap from Double-A. He hit .250/.333/.474 in 177 plate appearances PAs. with some long home runs, as well as notching a postseason grand-slam against the Brewers in Game Three of the NLDS. Arizona would like Goldschmidt to fill a position that has been problematic for them recently. Over the past five seasons, 42 qualifying first-basemen in the National League have had a .790 OPS or better, but none played for the Diamondbacks.

If Goldschmidt can fill the hole, it'll be a significant help. However, his limited major league experience would suggest some contingency plan, just in case. The team did use Overbay as a back-up toward the end of the year, but thus far, while quickly re-signing most of their other free-agent eligible players, there has been no sign of the D-backs will do that with Overbay. Whoever they sign shouldn't expect a full-time job, as Goldschmidt has earned the position by default for now. The odd start and pinch-hit appearance is about all he'll get, though NL Manager of the Year Kirk Gibson expects older players to mentor the younger ones.

If they do sign a first baseman, that would leave the D-backs with three true outfielders, in starters Chris Young, Gerardo Parra and Justin Upton, with Young the "grizzled veteran" of the bunch at age 28—Gold Glove winner Parra and Upton will both be only 24 on Opening Day. It's a scary though for the rest of the West to realize that, yes, Upton quite possibly will be better next season than his .898 OPS in 2011, giving Matt Kemp some competition.

The D-backs would then muddle through in terms of a fourth outfielder. Parra can play center or right, to give those guys a day here or there, with Roberts, or possibly Bloomquist (though Arizona fans would rather it wasn't), covering for Parra in left as necessary.

As an aside, one thing you can forget about entirely is the Diamondbacks trading Upton. Last winter, Towers seemed to be gauging the market for the young star, though how serious the "For Sale" sign was could certainly be questioned. This winter, Towers has explicitly stated he has "zero interest" in a deal. That's hardly a surprise, given Arizona's turnaround happening sooner than many people expected, as well as the excellent season Upton delivered and his long, largely team-friendly contract.

The starting rotation seems slightly uncertain, with the main question being whether to tender Joe Saunders a contract. The team will have to make a decision on that by early December, and the indication is that Arizona will spend the time before then kicking the tires on a few other pitchers to gauge the market. Saunders is in his final year of arbitration, and will likely make around $8 million in 2012. If the D-backs figure they can get a better bang for their buck using that cash, they'll do so, and let the veteran go.

Saunders had a solid year, with a 3.69 ERA. His FIP was more than a run worse, so regression is expected, but perhaps less than you'd think, as he has consistently outperformed his FIP—by 0.58 since 2007, fourth-most in the majors. That said, it's by no means certain he'll be worth the hefty salary, so Towers is looking around, with Mark Buehrle one possibility. Hiroki Kuroda is another name that has been mentioned; Towers has admired him since Kuroda debuted against Towers' Padres in 2008. It's known that Kuroda would like to stay in Los Angeles, but if the Dodgers can't afford him... Well, Los Angeles is only a couple of hundred miles away.

Kuroda's preference for a one-year deal is seen as a positive for the Diamondbacks, due to the strong pitching in their farm system. Jarrod Parker made his major league debut in September, with 5.2 shutout innings against Los Angeles. (That game is likely remembered more for Arizona coming back from five runs down with two outs in the 10th inning to win on Roberts' walk-off grand-slam.) Parker is likely to join Josh Collmenter, Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy in the 2012 rotation, along with Saunders or his replacement.

But Parker is just the first ripple of a potentially lethal tsunami. Behind Parker lurk names in the minors like Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley, all highly rated prospects who could begin contributing to the major league team as early as next season. That's why the team doesn't need to sign Saunders, or anyone else, to a long-term contract, since the odds are there will be someone younger, cheaper and better coming up the pipeline before long. It's only a slight stretch to see a scenario where, by the end of next season, Arizona could have one of the best rotations in the majors, with all the members earning close to league minimum.

Finally, the bullpen will also be much as last year. It was completely re-invented under Towers; by the end of the year, there were no survivors from the relief corps that finished 2010. That's probably a good thing, given how badly that bunch stank: That season, the Diamondbacks lost 25 games where they were tied or ahead after seven innings. This past year, that number dropped to six, behind excellent work from likely future closer David Hernandez and incumbent J.J. Putz. They combined for 56 saves and a 2.83 ERA, playing their home games in one of the more hitter-friendly parks in baseball, and will anchor the 'pen once more.

A little further back, the team may look to acquire another left-handed reliever. This year, the role almost exclusively belonged to Joe Paterson, a Rule 5 pick from the Giants organization. Paterson stuck on the team, with a solid 3.44 FIP, helped by a funky sidearm style and sweeping breaking ball. However, Gibson's fondness for match-ups would be helped by a second southpaw. No specific names have surfaced to this point, but given Towers' success with the bullpen (as he had in San Diego), it seems likely the GM has a firm idea of what he wants.

All told, the Diamondbacks will likely be one of the quietest teams this winter, Barely a month after the end of the World Series, the 2012 roster seems to be virtually locked down, with one or two exceptions. Whether the team can repeat in the NL West will, of course, remain to be proved.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jim McLennan 2011-11-25T06:35:15+00:00 Five questions: Arizona Diamondbacks http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-arizona-diamondbacks6/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-arizona-diamondbacks6/#When:09:03:15 Will the bullpen improve?
Yes - simply because there is almost no scope for it to get any worse. The Diamondbacks relief corps were historically bad in 2010: They could have had an ERA an entire run better and still would have ranked dead last in the majors. There's no doubt this cost Arizona a large number of games; the team went 6-18 in contests which were tied at the end of the seventh, and 2-14 in those tied after eight innings.

Rebuilding the bullpen this winter thus became new GM Kevin Towers' top priority. J.J.Putz was signed as a free agent to become the closer, and when slugger Mark Reynolds was traded to the Orioles, relievers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio came back. If Putz can remain healthy, he should provide a much better foundation for the ninth—that's no shoo-in, as his last fully fit season was 2007. However, when he pitched last year for the White Sox, Putz was excellent, with a 2.52 FIP.

At this point, there is no obvious eighth inning guy. Hernandez is one possibility, while another may be Juan Gutierrez, who took over from the ineffective Chad Qualls as closer, after the latter was traded to Tampa Bay. Aaron Heilman may also be a candidate, though that depends on what happens with regard to the rotation, which is a smooth segue into...


How does the back of the rotation shake down?


Changes to the starting pitching have been even more drastic, with Ian Kennedy the sole survivor of the 2010 Opening Day rotation. Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson were traded, Rodrigo Lopez signed with Atlanta and Kris Benson retired. Alongside Kennedy, Joe Saunders and Daniel Hudson went into spring training virtually guaranteed spots; Hudson was phenomenal after coming over with the White Sox, albeit assisted by a .212 BABIP.

But the last couple of spots were very much up for grabs, though there was no shortage of contenders for those roles. Zach Duke appeared to have the inside track on the No. 4 slot due to the $4.25 million free-agent contract he signed in the offseason, but a line drive off his pitching hand a couple weeks ago will keep him on the shelf until mid-May.

Barry Enright pitched solidly after being pulled up from Double-A last season, following the failure of "Operation Rescue" Dontrelle Willis. Though he has options left, Duke's injury and his acceptable spring performance have earned him a place in the rotation. Enright will be joined by fifth starter Armando Galarraga, he of the not-quite-perfect game with the Tigers last year.

Heilman, who has wanted to start for some time, came into camp as an interesting dark horse and was promised a chance to try out for the rotation this spring. His early performances were promising but, with an overall spring ERA of 7.03, he's lucky to be part of the revamped Arizona bullpen.


Can the offense survive the power cuts?


According to Towers, "Strikeouts are part of the game, but if you have four or five or six guys in your lineup, it's hard to sustain any sort of rally." Prior to last year, only the 1991 Tigers and 2001 Brewers had even a trio with 145 Ks each—the 2010 D-backs had five such players. Reynolds and Adam LaRoche combined for 383 whiffs, the most ever by two teammates, but they also hit 57 homers and drove in 185 runs. Will Arizona still be able to score without them?

It's probably safe to say that their replacements on the corner infield, Melvin Mora and Yankees prospect Juan Miranda, will not match those power totals, and the team will need to make up the difference with small-ball tactics. This doesn't mean the Diamondbacks will become the Mets, leading the league in stolen bases. Justin Upton and Chris Young should still be good for 25-30 homers each, with Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew providing above-average power from the middle infield.

It's clear Towers prefers hitters who put the ball in play, and the team he has built tends, overall, to reflect this—despite some acquisitions that don't quite fit the mold, such as Russell Branyan. While there is scope for improvement in some aspects of the Arizona game, they will struggle to match last year's total of 713 runs. As well as improvement from the young players, beating that will take surprising performances from the older ones, like Mora and Xavier Nady.


How important is the draft?


The Diamondbacks are in what appears to be a unique position in history, possessing two of the first seven picks in the 2011 draft. They 'earned' the third spot as a result of their record, and were among the first teams to benefit from the new 'failure to sign' compensation picks, getting the No. 7 selection because they didn't ink the sixth pick last year, Barret Loux. That looks likely to turn out a bonus, with this year's talent generally regarded as much more impressive than in 2010.

Arizona fans are hoping the team has budgeted appropriately; it would be excruciating if they were unable to sign the best player available due to the signing of, say, Geoff Blum. Some caution will need to be exercised, as the seventh pick is unprotected—if the Diamondbacks don't sign him, no further compensation is offered.

But it's an unprecedented opportunity, and the upside would be something like the 2006 draft, where the No. 3 and No. 7 picks were Evan Longoria and Clayton Kershaw—with Tim Lincecum left on the board! Of course, the downside is 2001, with Dewon Brazelton and Chris Smith the picks in those slots. Still, even if it it's no guarantee, it certainly is nice to have.


Can the team realistically hope to compete?


Probably not. The biggest turnaround by any team last year was the Padres' 15-game swing, and if the Diamondbacks were to match that, they'd still be below .500. One-year acquisitions like Mora and Henry Blanco suggest the signing of veterans to teach the "right way" to play the game and set down a foundation upon which Arizona can build going forward.

While management is making the appropriate noises about competing, it's probably more reasonable to suggest they are simply looking for improvement this season. As noted, reaching .500 would be an impressive achievement.

The farm system was left all but devoid of high-level prospects after the Dan Haren trade—I'm sure the team now wish it had kept Carlos Gonzalez—but it has improved since the 2009 draft, when the team had seven of the first 64 picks. The resulting strength is, however, still some way from helping Arizona, with pitcher Jarrod Parker the only blue-chip rookie even remotely likely to have much impact this year.

With a somewhat restricted payroll—the team have still to pay off $40 million in deferred salaries from the Colangelo era—2013 is a reasonable timetable for the D-backs to contend again, give or take a year.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jim McLennan 2011-03-31T09:03:15+00:00 Five questions: Arizona Diamondbacks http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-arizona-diamondbacks5/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-arizona-diamondbacks5/#When:10:20:15 1. What can Arizona expect from Brandon Webb this season?
The answer to this question, more than any other, will decide the Diamondbacks' season. If he returns to the form shown from 2006-08, when he won more games than any other pitcher in baseball, Arizona will likely have a 1-2-3 to reckon, with Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson following Webb in the rotation. But if he fails to recover, the Diamondbacks could be in for another 2009 season, where the pack of replacement-level pitchers who replaced Webb went 7-20, with a combined ERA of 6.11.

After a setback where his arm felt "stagnant," at the time of this writing, Webb appears to be progressing again, and it's hoped that he will miss only perhaps the first three weeks of the season. It would be too much for him to return to Cy Young level, particularly immediately. But odds are good that he'll be significantly better than any alternatives Arizona might have—journeyman Rodrigo Lopez and rookie Kevin Mulvey are the most likely temporary replacements for Webb in the rotation.

2. Will the bullpen be more reliable?


It can hardly be much worse, let's say. Arizona's relief corps was mediocre; its OPS against in 2009 was .734, 12th-best in the NL. But things went downhill when the relievers needed to be at their most effective—in 'Late and Close' situations, the D-backs' overall OPS against jumped by 30 points. This resulted in the team allowing 120 runs in the eighth inning, 25 percent more than any other team in the league.

Some of those involved are no longer with the Diamondbacks, e.g. Tony Peña, Jon Rauch and Scott Schoeneweis, Arizona replacing them by signing veterans Aaron Heilman and Bob Howry over the offseason. Neither man has been very impressive in spring, and it seems possible they will use Juan Gutierrez, who closed for the D-backs after Chad Qualls went on the DL late in 2009, as their main setup man. The LOOGY role is uncertain; Rule 5 pick Zach Kroenke might get it, but rookie Jordan Norberto is an alternative.

3. Is Arizona going to be the beneficiary of bounce-back seasons from its offense?

There are three everyday players on the team who need to return to better levels of production: left fielder/first baseman Conor Jackson, second baseman Kelly Johnson and center fielder Chris Young, and that's probably my order of confidence in the trio. Jackson lost almost all of 2009 after catching valley fever in spring training. It's a vicious, debilitating spore-born lung disease that sapped all his energy and then developed into pneumonia for good measure. He tore up the Dominican Winter League,and is having a good spring, so he could well prove a good sleeper pick for 2010.

Johnson was very solid in 2007-08 but was bad enough last season that the Braves non-tendered him. A BABIP of .247 last year was partly to blame, but a line-drive rate that dropped to 14 percent was also involved; that will need to improve if he is to return to form. Young's main issue in 2009 was that he was an infield pop-up machine, with an IF/FB rate of 28 percent—the next-highest in the majors by a player with that many plate appearances was Yuniesky Betancourt's 22 percent. He did improve over the last month after a spell in Triple-A, but if Young is to live up to the perpetual Mike Cameron comparisons, he needs to start producing this season.

4. How will A.J. Hinch perform in his first full season as manager?


When Hinch was hired to replace Bob Melvin, 29 games into last season, it unleashed a firestorm of criticism, mostly because Hinch had no managerial experience at any level of the game. Arizona pitching coach Bryan Price, who left the team at that point, blasted the new manager, calling his hiring "a poor decision" and saying Hinch "doesn't have any credibility between the lines as a manager." Certainly this posed problems in 2009, with not everyone on board. "There wasn't a rebellion period with A.J., but something similar to that," said Brandon Webb.

However, that now seems to be behind the team—in part due to changes in personnel—with Webb commenting earlier in spring: "He had to earn our trust, and he did. I think he's going over real well. We really like playing for him, his philosophies and stuff." It'll be interesting to see what difference those "philosophies" make: Before spring training, he seemed to be stressing fundamentals such as defense, which were definitely an Achilles' heel for the Diamondbacks in 2009.

5. Is the back end of the rotation going to fall apart?


As noted above, last year, the No. 5 spot for the Diamondbacks bordered on the abysmal, and there are multiple uncertainties again this year, once you get past Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson. The team traded away Jon Garland (to the Dodgers, during a game against them) and lost Doug Davis to free agency. They also swapped Max Scherzer and reliever Daniel Schlereth in a three-way trade with the Yankees and Tigers, getting back Jackson and largely unproven No. 4 starter Ian Kennedy.

The result is a much less experienced rotation than in 2009. Both Kennedy and expected No. 5 Billy Buckner are young (25), and neither is a proven major league contributor. They have just 30 starts at the highest level between them, with a combined career ERA close to 6. Now, obviously you don't need ace-like performances from that end of your rotation: In the NL, the No. 4 slot typically posts an ERA in the 4.35-5.15 range, with a No. 5 higher than 5.15. However, Jackson and Buckner are basically question marks: While they may surprise us (Kennedy was a first-round pick for the Yankees in 2006), they could also be little better than replacement level.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jim McLennan 2010-03-25T10:20:15+00:00 Five questions: Arizona Diamondbacks http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-arizona-diamondbacks4/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-arizona-diamondbacks4/#When:05:10:15 Will the Diamondbacks' young hitters produce enough offense?
This is where the Arizona season will likely stand or fall. Some of the projections are bullish on this; Baseball Prospectus expects the team to score 910 runs, an increase of about 90 over the previous year. There is some grounds for this, since they're still a very young team. On Opening Day, it's likely all eight starting position players will be 28 or younger, so age is on their side. It was notable that a number of the young players, particularly Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Miguel Montero and Chris Young, had markedly better numbers in the second half of 2008.

Sustaining those improved levels of performance over an entire season will go a long way toward driving the offense to the projected levels of production. As would cutting down on the monstrous rate of strikeouts from Young, Upton and Mark Reynolds—the latter setting a new single-season strikeout record in
2008.

Is Jon Garland an acceptable replacement for Randy Johnson?


Diamondbacks fans were disheartened by the loss of Johnson, especially to a division rival, but the downturn in the free-agent market meant the team picked up Garland for little, if any, more money. He is certainly much less of a risk than the Big Unit, being more than 16 years younger and having made more than 32 starts every season for the past eight.

On the other hand, the second half posted by Johnson last season showed that there was still life in the Big Unit, to put it mildly. Overall, however, Arizona went only 14-16 in the games started by the future Hall of Famer, a number that Garland, who has a career ERA+ of 104, should be able to match. Indeed, the five anticipated starters for Arizona all have lifetime ERA+ better than 100, giving them a rotation among the strongest in baseball, top-to-bottom and a chance to win, almost every day.

Can the Arizona bullpen stop sucking quite so hard?


Despite a very respectable ERA of 4.09, the Diamondbacks' relief corps had a miserable 2008 record of 17-28, which should improve, simply because it can't be much worse. They were lights out when the game was already won or lost, but a good deal less reliable if it was on the line. The poster-boy for their struggles was Jon Rauch, who came over from Washington in late July and promptly went 0-6 with a 6.56 ERA for Arizona. Chad Qualls supplanted Brandon Lyon as closer in September, and Qualls has the job on Opening Day, despite a lack of experience in the role. He'll probably be fine: the issue is more whether Tony Peña and others will be able to preserve the leads and pass them on.

The usage of Scott Schoeneweis may also be crucial: in his time in New York, few relievers were better at getting left-handed hitters out, but few were worse facing right-handed ones. If veteran signing Tom Gordon can come back from injury and contribute, that'd be nice, but personally, I'm not counting on that.

Is Max Scherzer ready to be a full-time starter?



As recent major-league debuts go, few in baseball have ever been more impressive than Scherzer's. On April 29, 2008, he pitched against the Houston Astros and retired all 13 batters faced in 4.1 perfect innings, with seven strikeouts. He ended with 66 strikeouts's in 56 frames, but there are doubts over whether he will stick in the rotation. These are partly related to his stamina (he's the No. 5 in Arizona, so will be skipped when possible), partly to the question of whether he has three pitches consistent enough to get him through the opposing lineup a few times.

Although it wouldn't be a disaster if he ends up as the Arizona closer down the line, the Diamondbacks will certainly give Max every chance to succeed in the rotation. With four proven innings-eaters, the bullpen should be able to handle the load should Scherzer have a relatively short and stellar outing on the fifth day.

Are the Diamondbacks able to tame Manny?


They certainly didn't do a very good job last season: against the Diamondbacks, Ramirez hit .512/.588/1.000, driving in a dozen runs. Yes, you read that correctly: 22-for-43, with seven walks and five homers in 12 games. Arizona need to get over the hump and start retiring him, if not quite like any other hitter, then at least a good deal more often than 41 percent of the time. The Dodgers are very likely to be the biggest threats to the Diamondbacks this season, and whoever wins the head-to-head series between the two teams will probably take the NL West.

Last season, that was Los Angeles, 10-8—after Manny arrived on July 31, the Dodgers won seven of nine. The opening series between the two teams is April 10-12 in Phoenix, and establishing they can handle Ramirez and the rest of the potent Dodgers offense is probably a psychological necessity for the Diamondbacks if they are to compete for the rest of the year.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jim McLennan 2009-04-02T05:10:15+00:00 The remains of the season: the Arizona Diamondbacks http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-remains-of-the-season-the-arizona-diamondbacks/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-remains-of-the-season-the-arizona-diamondbacks/#When:05:08:15
image
Dan Haren has delivered for the Dbacks this year. (Icon/SMI)

The season so far


It's thanks to the weakness of the NL West that the Diamondbacks are doing so well; Arizona's overall record would be good only for fourth place in either of the two other National League divisions. They have gone 29-15 against the rest of the West, compared to only 28-39 against everyone else. Of particular note, they are only 14-27 against teams outside the West and currently above .500. The following chart illustrates how their performance through the first four months appears to be closely related to the number of games they play against their divisional opponents:
Month    OPS  ERA    W-L  West
Mar/Apr .813  3.25  20-8   22
May     .731  4.09  11-17   6
June    .628  4.57   9-15   0
July    .757  3.82  14-11  13

While the team's offense falls near the middle of the pack in run scoring, Chase Field plays a good part in that: away from home, they are scoring fewer than four times per game, 13th in the league. It's their pitching which has kept Arizona in contention, with an ERA+ of 117, trailing only the Dodgers (121) and Cubs (119). Again, park factors disguise this somewhat, but on the road, Arizona is the only team in the league to allow fewer than four runs per game.

Dan Haren, who arrived from the A's as the only major player acquired by the Diamondbacks during the offseason, has been a large part of that. Initially troubled by a lingering upper respiratory infection, he has now recovered, and in 11 games since the start of June he has a 1.62 ERA and K:BB ratio of 74:13. Brandon Webb has been as solid as expected, with an ERA near 3.00, and after a dreadful spell, Randy Johnson has bounced back to win five games in a row—he still has an outside chance at reaching 300 wins before the season ends. Doug Davis has been up and down, however, and Micah Owings was optioned to Tucson last week. There's a big question mark over whether he has enough good pitches to be a starter.

Generally, though, the rotation has been good, giving Arizona quality starts over 60 percent of the time, the best figure in the league. On the other hand, the bullpen has been a problem; their 10-18 record is significantly worse than 2007, when they were 30-19. Chad Qualls currently leads all major league relievers with seven losses despite an ERA+ of 118; he has had particular issues with inherited runners, and his opponents' batting average shoots up from .202 with the bases empty to .317 with men in scoring position. He and his colleagues have struggled to hold leads in close games in a way not experienced last season, when Arizona's 32-20 record in one-run games was a large part of their success. Compare and contrast the results below, which show their win percentage when ahead at various points:
Leading after   2007   2008
=============   ====   ====
Five innings    .861   .755
Six innings     .890   .759
Seven innings   .912   .875
Eight innings   .953   .945

Last year, the Diamondbacks won almost nine out of 10 games when they were ahead after six innings; this year, they're barely at three of four. It's only in the final frame, where the records almost even out, thanks to Brandon Lyon, who has been a fairly solid replacement for Jose Valverde this year, converting 24 saves in 28 chances.

On offense, the outfield has been the main area of concern. Left fielder Eric Byrnes, signed to a long-term contract during 2007, was troubled by hamstring injuries all year, and though he is now gone for the season, that might be a merciful relief, since he was batting just .209. Chris Young in center is proving painfully easy to get out on pitches down and away, with an OBP below .300. And in right, Justin Upton had a brilliant April, but since then he has looked like the 20-year-old player he is and is now also on the DL with a strained oblique muscle.

The injury to Byrnes resulted in a move of Conor Jackson to left field, and he has flourished there, continuing to be the team's best hitter with an OPS near .900. This has opened up first base for the returning Chad Tracy, back after a knee injury, and allowed Mark Reynolds to continue to occupy third base. Reynolds is on pace for 32 homers, 102 RBI and also looks likely to end up with over 200 strikeouts this season, something no one has done before. Stephen Drew and Orlando Hudson occupy the middle infield, and both have been solidly productive.

Arizona's bench is another weakness, with the Diamondbacks only getting a line of .219/.323/.292 from their pinch hitters. None of the bench spots has an OPS of .700 or better; in particular, Chris Burke's existence on the roster remains a complete mystery. He has appeared in 64 games despite an OPS of .540, ranking him 328th among the 333 major leaguers with 150+ plate appearances. Tony Clark was brought over in a trade with the Padres to try and address this issue. I have my doubts that he is going to be of any real help on the park, valuable as his veteran presence may be in the clubhouse.

Looking forward


The schedule is kind to the Diamondbacks the rest of the way; only 15 of their 51 games are against teams with winning records (two series each versus the Dodgers and Cardinals, one versus the Marlins). It's likely the six remaining games against Los Angeles will go a long way in deciding the NL West champion.

Arizona made no major moves at the trade deadline, though the team did acquire Washington closer Jon Rauch as a setup man—he may take over the closer's role next season, with Lyon a free agent. The plan is now to go forward with the current roster and hope they can produce consistently. The only change likely the rest of the way is the return of Justin Upton to right field, probably within about two weeks—we'll see if he can recapture the form he showed at the start of the season. Rookie phenom Max Scherzer may be called up in September, either to bolster the bullpen or provide a fresh arm to the rotation. Micah Owings' spot has been taken, for the moment, by Yusmeiro Petit, with Scherzer still working to improve his arm strength down in Tucson.

If Webb, Haren, etc. continue to pitch as they have, the team will be kept in most games. The question is, will the offense score enough runs? When firing on all cylinders, as they did in April, Arizona is almost unstoppable. However, they need to get solid output from all three outfield positions, and the bullpen needs to stop coughing up leads. The acquisition of Ramirez by Los Angeles certainly stole all the headlines from Arizona, with some commentators all but anointing the Dodgers as a result. Still, the Diamondbacks haven't been worse than tied for first since April 5, and this is not a team that will give up its position as reigning champion without a fight.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jim McLennan 2008-08-06T05:08:15+00:00 Five Questions: Arizona Diamondbacks http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-arizona-diamondbacks3/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-arizona-diamondbacks3/#When:04:35:15 1. Will the offense return?
For a team whose .250 batting average left them dead-last in the National League, the Diamondbacks were remarkably inactive this offseason as far as improving their hitting. The big offseason acquisition there was veteran Trot Nixon—and he'll only be used as a left-handed bat off the bench until Chad Tracy returns. Injuries excepted, it's basically the same position players for Arizona as ended 2007, save the loss of Tony Clark and the arrival of utility infielder Chris Burke, who was part of the return from Houston for closer Jose Valverde.

Arizona will largely rely on the natural improvement of a young team, and there are grounds to believe this will provide a significant boost. After firing hitting coach Kevin Seitzer at the All-Star break, the team added 38 points of OPS in the second half, and the final month of the regular season was their best effort, with a collective line of .272/.354/.457. This is not too surprising, given the team's collective lack of major-league experience—five of the likely 2008 Opening Day starters will be 25 or younger.

These include Stephen Drew, whose performance at shortstop was well short of what was expected. Conor Jackson might finally get the chance to break out at first base, with the departure of Clark; after a poor April, Jackson hit almost .300 the rest of the way. Mark Reynolds is another worth watching and will start at third base, though both his and Jackson's time may be reduced when Chad Tracy returns. Among the "veterans," catcher Chris Snyder also impressed in the second half. Although no one will mistake Arizona for the '27 Yankees, everyone could reach double figures in homers, and they should return towards to the middle of the offensive pack.

2. How good will Upton be?

First things first: He'll be better than the woeful showing in right field of Carlos Quentin. The highly touted prospect posted an OPS+ of 63 (ranking him 113th among 114 outfielders with 250+ PA), was sent down to Tucson and ended up being unceremoniously shipped to the White Sox in the offseason for an A-ball prospect. It is not expected that Upton will share Quentin's fate, but the list of 20-year-olds who've played full-time in the past two decades is short: Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez and Adrian Beltre. (Andruw Jones did appear in 153 games for the '97 Braves, but he started only 96 of those.)

So, we don't have much of a track record to go on here, and the 140 at-bats that Upton got last year are almost as useless, especially since Upton skipped Triple-A entirely. The prediction systems differ widely in their opinions. Bill James is phenomenally high on Upton, predicting a .278/.353/.496 line; among players too young to drink, that .849 OPS has been reached only once, by A-Rod, since Tony Conigliaro smacked 32 homers for the 1965 Red Sox. At the other end, ZiPS predicts .248/.313/.404, or 132 fewer points of OPS.

Basically, your guess is as good as mine. I'm thinking somewhere near the middle of those outliers is probably close to the truth.

3. Can the bullpen be as dominant again?

In a word, no. Valverde: 2008 ERA+ 177; career ERA+ 141. Lyon: 176/105. Pena: 144/121. Cruz: 152/105. All four main relievers were pitching well over their heads, and while coach Bryan Price deserves a lot of credit, it would be wise to expect some kind of regression to the mean in 2008.

That is perhaps most true for Lyon, who avoided home runs almost entirely (not allowing any until July 20) and ended with just two in 74 innings, compared to a previous career rate of about one every seven innings. The departure of Valverde to Houston means Lyon will be the closer, though many people expect him to be replaced by Tony Peña before very long (and certainly by 2009, as this is Lyon's last year under contract).

This is not to say that the bullpen will be a liability, and with the addition of Chad Qualls it still figures to have four above-average arms. (First-round pick Max Scherzer may see action later on, albeit only if the Diamondbacks decide he won't work as a starter.) While Melvin rolls the lineup dice on almost a daily basis, he prefers to employ his relief corps in well-defined roles, so expect Cruz to pitch the sixth and Qualls the seventh, with the ball being handed to Peña for the eighth and then finally over to Lyon.

That pattern worked extremely well last season, and if the starters can go deep into games, we'll see it used again in 2008. It'd be a lot less nerve-wracking for fans if the offense can help reduce the number of one-run leads they have to preserve, since the odd bump in the road is inevitable.

4. Dan Haren: ace, No. 2 stopper, or mid-rotation starter?

The perception is that the D-backs sold the farm to get Haren. In their defense, though, said farm was somewhat superfluous, with every position player bar Orlando Hudson being under their control through at least 2010. Over the last three years, among the pitchers with 400 innings (already a fairly elite club with only 90 members), Haren's ERA+ of 119 ranks 21st, ahead of that of aces like Penny and Beckett. In 2007, Haren had a phenomenal first half: It took 18 outings for his ERA to go above 2.00, and he was the starter for the AL in the All-Star game. He hit a rough patch in early September, but he still set a new career low for ERA and new high for strikeouts.

Haren has now moved to the NL, and he will face pitchers, not the DH. That's good. But he has now also moved to a much more hitter-friendly park, and his above-average HR/9 (1.10 over the past three years) is potentially troublesome in Chase.

It's difficult to say which of these factors will have a greater impact on Haren's performance in 2008, though if he is as good as he was early last year, it probably doesn't matter. That said, my expectations are not quite so high. Webb will remain the staff ace, but Haren will give the Diamondbacks a 1-2 punch that is likely unrivaled in the National League (with all due respect to Johan and Pedro).

And following behind that pair will be a certain five-time Cy Young winner...

5. Will Randy, and his back, bounce back?

This was question No. 1 last year, and we know how that worked out, though reviewing what I wrote then, I did mention that last year's Hardball Times Annual predicted an ERA for Johnson of 3.70 ERA, credibly close to the eventual figure of 3.81 in ten starts. (By the way, the expectation from this year's book is a 3.84 ERA and 119 innings.)

This season, Johnson has had longer to rehab from the surgery, and he described how he feels as "night and day" compared to 2007. It was apparently a different kind of procedure—more serious and invasive, but intended to resolve the issue permanently. So the previous relapse does not necessarily mean that the same will happen in 2008.

Certainly, Johnson showed on occasion last year that he could be extremely effective, such as one-hitting the Rockies for six innings at Coors Field on May 15. Overall, he struck out 72 in 56.2 innings with just 13 walks, and he held left-handers to a minute .182 average. He clearly had something left in the tank. Still, he's now one year older, and only one pitcher his age has reached 10 wins since Nolan Ryan did so in 1991.

But Jamie Moyer's 14 victories last year showed it can be done. And—to reword marginally what I said last year—if you had to pick one 44-year-old as a pitcher to whom you should hitch a franchise's fortunes, there's probably nobody better for the job than RJ.

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The irony is, the sound thrashing flew in the face of much of the statistical evidence—a reversal of the regular season, where Arizona was out-hit and out-scored by their opponents, but still had the best record in the National League. The Rockies batted a paltry .222, with an OPS of .627; the Diamondbacks hit .254, with an OPS of .671—but
the Rockies outscored Arizona 18-8 over the four games. That's mostly because eight of the Rockies' 30 hits came with runners in scoring position, something that happened to the Diamondbacks for just four of their 36 hits. Clutch hitting may supposedly be a statistical myth—but for a fictitious concept, it sure had a lot of impact on this series. In particular, the Rockies scored 16 of their 18 runs with two outs, and few things will suck the morale out of an opponent faster than that.

Were the Rockies "lucky". Yes and no. I could recite a litany of times where breaks seemed to go their way. In Game One, they roasted Brandon Webb with an apparently unending stream of bloopers, bleeders and seeing-eye singles, as well as Matt Holliday's 45-foot squib. In Game 2, they tied the game on another bloop, by Torrealba, that landed on the right field line. And in Game 4, pinch-hitter Seth Smith repeated the exercise with a jammed-shot onto the left field line that turned a deficit into a lead. It's been said so often it's become a cliche, but the Rockies were apparently destined to win this series, from almost the first pitch.

However, you do not win 21 out of 22 games by "luck", and there's no doubt they simply executed better. The Colorado pitching staff was generally excellent, and up until Chris Snyder's three-run shot in the eighth inning, the bullpen had been particularly tough. You could also see why their defense was, by some metrics, the best in the majors.

Two huge plays stand out: Willy Taveras taking away extra bases and the tying run from Tony Clark with a diving catch in Game 2, and Josh Fogg spearing a screamer right back at him by Eric Byrnes, after our first two men reached base in the opening inning of Game 3. Instead of an tie-breaking RBI single, it became the first of three double-plays in consecutive innings turned by the Rockies.

Some blame must be aimed at our manager, Bob Melvin, in particular for an unfathomable decision to use closer Jose Valverde for two innings in Game 2, when his season high coming in was only 32 pitches. He'd matched that by the time he retired Torrealba for the second out in the 11th, having allowed an infield hit and a walk. Inexplicably, Melvin chose to extend his closer further, and Valverde responded by walking consecutive batters on six and four pitches, forcing in the go-ahead run. Memo to Melvin: the Championship Series is not the time to experiment with roles, or test your closer's stamina.

On the other hand that bases-loaded walk was the only one allowed by our bullpen in the entire postseason. They pitched a total of 24 innings in seven games, allowing just nine hits and striking out 32 hitters, with an overall ERA of 0.28. There's no question, they certainly stepped up to the challenge, and some of the position players did too. Stephen Drew shook off a sluggish year to post the best playoff line on the team, .387/.406/.677, while Chris Young also had an OPS over 1.000, despite striking out in 13 of his 25 at-bats. On the other hand, Conor Jackson (.235), Eric Byrnes (.207), Mark Reynolds (.154) and Tony Clark (.133) all struggled in October, and they were the heart of the Arizona order.

All told, the "real" Diamondbacks are neither the team who swept the Cubs so emphatically, nor the team that was were soundly drubbed by the Rockies. As in most things, the truth can be found between the two extremes. But the experience will certainly have served them well, and—particularly when your team has the 26th-highest payroll in the league—no season when you win the division and reach the Championship Series can be considered anything but a resounding success.

Though I do still wonder what might have happened, had Trevor Hoffman managed to get one more strike past Tony Gwynn Jr., on that fateful Saturday in Milwaukee...

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Mind you, that 19th game was the opener of the final series against Arizona, when Brandon Webb held them to two runs, and the series perhaps turns on how Webb handles the and vice versa. Before that outing, the reigning Cy Young winner had struggled against Colorado. In the first five starts facing them in 2007, he had an ERA of 6.47, allowing 35 hits and 15 walks in 32 innings. The latter figure may be the key, as his control was noticeably better in that last start. He walked two in seven frames, around his overall figure of 2.74 per nine innings. Keeping those free passes down will go a long way to making Webb as dominant against Colorado, as he has been against almost everyone else.

Despite these two being divisional rivals, we don't have much reliable historical data to go on, even though they met 18 times in the regular season. That's because the majority of these were early on in the year, and both teams have improved significantly since that point. The vagaries of the schedule pitted Colorado against Arizona 12 times inside the first 50 games, then not from mid-May until the last game in August. Even the six games in the final month—the Rockies won four—are little help since, as noted, the Diamondbacks rested most of their key players after Webb's win clinched a playoff spot. Neither subsequent starter, Edgar Gonzalez or Yusmeiro Petit, are in the playoff rotation for Arizona, making it hard to draw any conclusions from the results.

In many ways, these two organizations are similar, building from within, rather than through expensive free-agents. Both franchises had 14 home-grown players on their postseason roster in the first round, and the combined salaries are less than the Mets, who will be enjoying the post-season only on TBS. With the addition of Cleveland, it's been a good year for low-budget outfits: only Boston of the four remaining teams ranks outside the bottom third in payroll, with Colorado ranked 25th and Arizona 26th in terms of salary. And, in Arizona's case, that's with $16 million now sitting on the DL, courtesy of Randy Johnson, Orlando Hudson and Chad Tracy.

This could be the first of several postseason encounters between the two teams, as they are young and likely to improve, with stable rosters. The starting lineups for the first game here, might well be the starting lineups for both teams on Opening Day next year—neither is scheduled to suffer major losses through free agency. Arizona will lose starter Livan Hernandez, and may not re-sign veteran first baseman Tony Clark, while Colorado have to deal with pitcher Josh Fogg and infielder Kaz Matsui, whose contracts are up over the winter. Otherwise, the core of the sides are set to battle for NL West domination over the coming seasons.

Looking at their division series performances, both teams scored 16 runs in their three games, and posted very similar batting averages too: Arizona hit .266, Colorado .267. The Diamondbacks showed a bit more power, and that's reflected in an OPS edge .890/.834. These were improvements on the regular season performances, and were closer to their figures over the final month of the regular season (AZ: .811; CO: .861). Arizona got a huge boost from Stephen Drew, 7-for-14 with two homers in three games, after batting .238 with only 12 homers the rest of the year. Colorado's unofficial MVP was probably Matsui, who went 5-for-12 with 6 RBI.

Again, we can probably expect Arizona to have their wheels up if they reach base. Four different players stole bases against Chicago, and there's discussion about possibly adding the ultra-speedy Emilio Bonifacio to the roster for this series—he stole 157 bases over the past three minor-league seasons. Certainly, there'd possibly seem room for some tactical adjustments by Arizona manager Bob Melvin, as six men on the roster saw no action at all in the Division Series. Adding a pitcher instead of a position player is another possibility, given the chance that Coors Field might be rough on arms.

With the way the off-days are scheduled (there's a weird one during the Colorado leg), either team could use their Game 1 on short rest in Game 4, then bring them back on regular rest for Game 7. However, that would probably be a last-ditch, three games down scenario for either manager, and I find it tough to see this series being a blow-out, in either direction. Six or seven games seems much more likely than four or five, and with the last two scheduled for Arizona, that could be crucial - both sides won fifty or more home games, while playing below .500 on the road. I expect that to continue, with Arizona winning Game 7 in front of a packed, rocking Chase Field.

However, after our B-squad made the final out in the regular season, throwing Colorado a life-line, my wife turned to me and said, "I think we might regret not winning that." We'll see in the next few days if those words prove to be prophetic.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jim McLennan 2007-10-11T04:06:15+00:00 Why the Diamondbacks beat the Cubs http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-the-diamondbacks-beat-the-cubs/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-the-diamondbacks-beat-the-cubs/#When:04:03:15 Chris Young's blast in the bottom of the same innings. The much-hyped Cubs offense managed a total of six runs in three games, batted a collective .197, and went 2-for-23 with runners in scoring position. None of those facts are conducive to victory; put them all together, and there's the series, right there.

Arizona simply outplayed the Cubs, but also out-hustled them, and the results were clear, even looking at the heart of the Cubs order, Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. They went 6-for-38 (Stephen Drew alone had seven hits for Arizona) with 13 strikeouts. As a sign of their failures to produce, Augie Ojeda had more extra-base hits and RBIs in the series than a trio who combined for $32,250,000 in salary this year; that's about as much as the entire Diamondbacks postseason roster.

The other factor which was a constant through the series was the Diamondbacks' bullpen. The Four Relievers of the Apocalypse (Juan Cruz, Tony Pena, Brandon Lyon and Jose Valverde) mentioned in my preview were all Arizona used, and they pitched 8.1 shutout innings, with five hits, two walks and eight strikeouts. When handed the lead, they kept it, and that, at least, was simply a continuation of the first 162 games in the year. Of particular note, however, was Melvin using Jose Valverde to close out all three wins, even though the latter two were not save situations. Both he and Brandon Lyon appeared in every game; however, with a day off in the middle, and five until the start of the NLCS, it shouldn't be a problem.

The first game went pretty much as was expected: a pitcher's duel between Brandon Webb and Carlos Zambrano, with both men on their game. We were tied 1-1 at the seventh-inning stretch, when Cubs manager Lou Piniella made the fateful decision to remove Zambrano, despite him having thrown only 85 pitches. This was to protect him for game four, where he was scheduled to start on short rest—but one wonders if "pulling a Piniella" will now enter the baseball vocabulary for taking out your starter too quickly, in the same way Grady Little will forever be known for leaving Pedro on the mound to dry in the 2003 ALCS.

For, when handed to Carlos Marmol, who'd posted a 1.43 ERA in 69.1 innings during the regular season, the tied game lasted three pitches—Mark Reynolds smacked the fourth into the bleachers, for the eventual game-winning run.

The second was decided, not by the bullpens, but the starting pitchers. Though Ted Lilly had a slightly-better ERA+ during the regular season than Doug Davis (119 compared to 111), it was Lilly who cracked, getting hooked with one out in the fourth, and trailing by a score of 6-2. If he looked wobbly in the first, giving up two walks, it was the long balls which killed him: given a 2-0 lead through Soto's homer, Lilly immediately handed it back, and more, on a three-run blast by Chris Young and an RBI triple from Eric Byrnes. In just 3.1 innings, he gave up seven hits, four walks and six earned runs. While Davis was not exactly brilliant—four walks, five hits and four earned runs in 5.2 innings—he was good enough, and did strike out eight Cubs, including Soriano and Ramirez twice each.

Down 0-2, Chicago returned to Wrigley, hoping to take the third with their home fans roaring them on, then push the series back to Zambrano on Sunday and take their chances with a game five back in Phoenix. That was the plan; Arizona had other ideas, and wasted no time, Chris Young dispatched the first pitch of the game out of the park, stunning the crowd. Left to play catch-up again, the Cubs couldn't take advantage of some huge opportunities, and were clearly pressing in their at-bats against Livan Hernandez, a fact that worked in his favor. The key at-bat came in the fifth, when Arizona clung to a 3-1 lead, and the bases were loaded for Chicago with one out, thanks to three walks from Hernandez. He then ran the count on Mark DeRosa to 3-1 but, as the crowd roared, got the second-baseman to swing at a questionable pitch, and ground into a double-play. That was the Cubs' last, best hope, and they managed only one base-runner after that point.

Overall, everything worked brilliantly well for Arizona. Fears that all the games would give Chicago a home advantage never materialized; the pitchers pitched, delivering an ERA of 2.00; and the hitters hit, posting a collective OPS of .890. Once Webb had given them the first game in the series, the only time things looked remotely dicey was when Chicago enjoyed their only lead in the second inning of the second game. If I did wonder how our young team would react to a deficit, youth apparently comes with self-doubt sold separately, and they responded immediately. I think being the underdogs suited them just fine, shifting the weight of expectations onto their opponents: ninety-nine years of waiting seemed to do as much to hamper the Cubs as anything Arizona did. The NLCS, against Colorado, promises to be another interesting battle: after this, who would dare go against the Diamondbacks?

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Frankly, such a result wouldn't surprise me. But, then again, neither would any other result, since this outfit has shown themselves capable of confounding any prediction, almost as a point of honor. Just when things look bleak, they win eight in a row. Just when things look unstoppable, they'll drop a series to the Pirates, looking more like the 2004 version of the team, which lost 111 games, than the 2007 side, who posted the best record in the National League. As a result, I don't have any expectations for this series. "Anybody, anytime" is the chosen team slogan, but I venture to suggest that "Que sera, sera" is equally appropriate. That said, you don't reach ninety wins by "luck", much as some disciples of run differential might wish that to be true. Here are the key factors for Arizona, if they are to progress further.

1. Brandon Webb is the best pitcher in the NL playoffs. The reigning Cy Young winner has, if anything, improved since last season, shaving nine points off both his ERA and opponent's batting average. That included a scoreless streak of 42 innings, the longest in the majors since Orel Hershiser in 1988. He won't repeat as Cy Young winner, because of the phenomenal season enjoyed by Jake Peavy, but the Padres will be enjoying the post-season on TBS. The Cubs could face Webb twice in a short series, so either need to beat him, or everyone else in the Dbacks rotation.

2. A bullpen that doesn't surrender leads. This season, the Diamondbacks are 57-10 when leading after only four innings. That's not actually all that much better a winning percentage than the Cubs (63-12), but the kicker is in the one-run games. There, Arizona excel, with a record of 32-20, compared to Chicago's 23-22. That's in part because Bob Melvin has four rock-solid relievers in Juan Cruz, Tony Peña, Brandon Lyon and Jose Valverde, who have combined for 284.2 innings at an ERA of 2.94. They've been given the bulk of high-leverage innings this year, and have responded magnificently. Measured by ERA+, all four make the top 20 NL relievers with more than 60 innings pitched.

3. Aggression—but not psychopathically so—on the base-paths. The top three base-thieves from the Arizona postseason roster, Eric Byrnes, Chris Young and Stephen Drew, are a combined 86-13 in stolen-bases. Byrnes, in particular, has become a real threat, taking 50 bags, more than double his total in 2006, and his wheels will be up when he gets on base. The team has also become adept at taking extra bases, such as going from first to third on singles. While it's difficult to measure such things, they tied with the Mets for the NL lead in sacrifice flies (21 more than the Cubs, who ranked 15th).

4. The Arizona offense: not as bad as advertised. Much has been made of the fact that the Dbacks scored fewer runs than they conceded, and looking at the raw figures suggests they are going to struggle to score runs. However, the pitching in the NL West was simply phenomenal this season. Here are the ERA+ figures for, first Arizona's division opponents, and then the Cubs':

SD: 112
Col: 110
LA: 108
SF: 106

Pitt: 90
StL: 93
Hou: 95
Cin: 96
Mil: 100

Now, the pitching staffs here work out about even (AZ 114, CHC 113). The difference is, for the Dbacks, facing good pitching will be business as usual, while the Cubs hitters have feasted on divisional opponents who are, at best, mediocre. In six games between the sides, Chicago only scored a total of 19 runs, while Arizona won four but scored one run less. This looks likely to be a tight series, decided by pitching.

It's also worth noting, Arizona hit better as the year went on. In the last month of the season, their OPS was up to .811, a vast improvement on the overall figure of .734. August and September were the Dbacks most productive spell for run-scoring: in the final month, they scored 5.35 runs per game, while the Cubs fell just short of five in that area. This is entirely in line with what you would expect from a young team, still gaining experience at the major-league level - especially one with a couple of players who were pulled from Double-A. This year's playoffs are a bonus for an organization many feel will be better in years to come.

5. And the rest. Particularly in a short series like this, things could turn on a myriad of factors. Chris Snyder, who threw out more base-stealers than any NL catcher save Russell Martin. Arizona's pinch-hitters, with the most homers in the majors, and an OPS 114 points better than the Cubs', The D-backs 27-17 record vs. lefty starters, whom they face in games two and three. Might the atmosphere at Chase Field turn into Wrigley Southwest? (From the series earlier this year, if AZ strike early, the Cubs fans will fall silent) And what role will that elusive, much-maligned quality, "clubhouse chemistry" play in things?

It promises to be a very interesting few days.

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