http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-24T08:08:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/al-waiver-wire-week-81/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/al-waiver-wire-week-81/#When:10:05:15 Justin Smoak| Seattle Mariners| 1B| ESPN: 6.4 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 14 percent ownership
YTD: .231/.278/.396
Oliver ROS: .232/.321/.383

Before Wednesday's big power exhibition in which Smoak ripped a double and two home runs, and piled up six RBI in a laugher against his former club (the Rangers), he was quietly putting a miserable start to the season behind him. Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider and Mariners prospect coverage notoriety mentioned a change to Smoak's approach on Twitter on May 25. He noted Smoak's load wasn't as deep and that he seemed to be responding to the adjustment well, and wouldn't you know it, he hit a home run not long after the tweet.

Smoak followed that up with a home run in his next game as well. In his last 12 games, Smoak has totaled 52 plate appearances and done massive amounts of damage at the dish. In that time span he is hitting .313/.365/.646 with five home runs. He will need to turn some of his ground balls, 56.4 percent, into fly balls if he hopes to continue his power surge, but numbers be damned, he's locked in.

This isn't a Chris Shelton where-did-he-come-from situation here either. Baseball America ranked Smoak the 23rd prospect in baseball in 2009, and bumped him up 10 more spots the following year to 13th. He was also the main player headed to the Mariners for Cliff Lee in 2010, to give further perspective on his prospect standing and the expectations of him.

Suffice to say, his .228/.309/.387 slash line in 1,080 plate appearances hasn't lived up to expectations. If he is figuring it out, and the adjustments are just what the doctor ordered, he will provide value to fantasy owners in leagues of all sizes and scoring formats going forward. Fantasy owners seem reluctant to buy into his big game, as his ownership is still below 20 percent in Yahoo! leagues, and even lower in ESPN leagues—below 10 percent. Find room for him on your roster if you're playing in a large mixed league or AL-only league and he's still sitting out on the wire.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues.


Vladimir Guerrero| Toronto Blue Jays| DH| ESPN: 0.5 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 7 percent ownership
YTD: .400/.400/.867 (High-A)
Oliver ROS: .292/.328/.467

How much Guerrero has left in the tank remains to be seen, but he's on the verge of answering that question. Guerrero has played in four games for High-A Dunedin, and he is making a mockery of low minor league pitching, as he should. According to Baseball-Reference, Guerrero has played one game in left field for Dunedin, and he hopes to be able to play the field on occasion for the Blue Jays, too.

He's no longer in physical condition to play the field every day, and the bulk of his at-bats will almost certainly come as the team's designated hitter, especially with Edwin Encarnacion now playing first base primarily with Adam Lind banished to the minors, but the added eligibility would be nice.

Guerrero was his usual hack-tastic self last year, swinging at pitches 14.2 percent more often than the league average, but just 1.3 percent more often than his career rate. In spite of his free-swinging ways, Guerrero has always maintained a low strikeout rate, and his 9.5 percent rate last year was no different. He still doesn't walk, but his ability to barrel balls helped him hit .290 for the Orioles in 2011.

His power dropped substantially from his one-year stay with the Rangers in 2010, with his home run total nose diving from 29 home runs to 13 in just 53 fewer plate appearances. If he can find a happy medium between those totals, he could add pop to his already solid batting average fantasy contribution. Of course, this is assuming he isn't completely washed up at 37, which isn't a slam dunk.

His timetable for joining the Blue Jays isn't entirely clear, but there are whispers of June 5 following a short stay in Double-A and/or Triple-A. He doesn't offer enough upside to stash in standard leagues, but large mixed leaguers and AL-only gamers in need of some hitting help wouldn't be crazy to add him if they have the bench flexibility.
Recommendation: Should be stashed in some extremely large mixed leagues and some AL-only formats.


Rajai Davis| Toronto Blue Jays| OF| ESPN: 2.7 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 5 percent ownership
YTD: .258/.310/.485
Oliver ROS: .271/.314/.397

Coco Crisp's elite stolen base skills.">Last week I gushed about the more widely owned Coco Crisp's elite stolen base skills. This week I feature a less owned, but more prolific base stealer. Davis had the fourth most stolen bases between 2010-2011. He swiped 84 bases in 106 chances, good for a sparkling 79.2 percent success rate.

The best part is, he didn't require much playing time to show off his wheels. He was the only player in the top five in stolen bases to receive fewer than 1,000 plate appearances, stepping to the plate 899 times. In the short term, he is in line to be the biggest beneficiary of Eric Thames' demotion. While most folks relish a trip to Las Vegas, Thames is on a business trip, looking to right the ship at the plate.

Manager John Farrell expects Thames' stay in the minors to be short, but Davis has shown in the past he doesn't need much time to move the needle in the stolen base category, making him a must-add for owners in need of speed. He's a one-trick pony, but this specialist is real good at what he does best.
Recommendation: Should be owned by fantasy gamers in need of steals, regardless of league size.


Francisco Liriano| Minnesota Twins| SP| ESPN: 6.7 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 17 percent ownership
YTD: 7.20 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 6.30 BB/9, 8.78 K/9, 37.1 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 4.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9, 8.3 K/9

I half-heartily include Liriano in this week's column, but his upside and most recent start are too tantalizing for me to completely ignore. On Wednesday, Liriano posted a vintage line, pitching six scoreless innings and striking out nine in a win while walking just two batters. According to his Brooks Baseball game card, he overwhelmed hitters with two varieties of fastballs that averaged around 92 mph, touching 93-94 mph, a change-up, and a slider. His slider was his nastiest pitch, leading the way in whiffs by volume, seven, and efficiency, 25.93 percent.

Playing against the A's in Oakland has a funny way of bringing the best out of pitchers. The team ranks 29th in runs scored, and is a mostly punchless lineup. The A's best hitter, Josh Reddick, is left-handed, and southpaw Liriano has always been better against left-handed batters than right-handers. All-in-all, it was a match made in heaven for Liriano's return to the rotation. He was bad last year, and has been worse thus far this year. It would seem there are more reasons to pass on Liriano than roster him, but that's not necessarily the case.

Liriano seems to be healthy, throwing his fastball with good velocity. When he's sharp, he adds a filthy change-up and slider as put-away pitches, and even with the bad start to 2012, he's striking out a bunch of batters and showing flashes of dominance. There is no harm in rostering him and keeping him benched for a start or two to prove his last start wasn't a blip on the radar. It's hard to argue that there is a higher upside pitcher more widely available having seen what Liriano can do at his best.
Recommendation: Should be owned in most large mixed leagues and AL-only formats, and placed on watch lists in shallower formats.


Casey Crosby| Detroit Tigers| SP| ESPN: 0 percent ownership, Yahoo! : Not available in the player pool
YTD: 4.26 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9, 10.1 K/9
Oliver ROS: 5.58 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9

Young pitchers are a risky and volatile bunch, and for the most part, it is wise to avoid them in yearly leagues. When you add a history of poor control to the mix, you increase the risk exponentially. Knowing that, Crosby is far from a safe bet to be helpful in yearly leagues. That said, he has an electric arm and may be in the process of putting his wild ways in the rear view mirror.

Crosby boasts a minor league career strikeout rate of 9.1 K/9 in 304 innings, but offsets the good with the bad, a walk rate of 4.7 BB/9. His walk rate this year is nearly the same, 4.6 BB/9. However, his control has been much, much sharper of late.

In his last two starts, Crosby has pitched 15 innings, allowing only one walk, and not sacrificing strikeouts in the process of throwing strikes, having punched out 16 batters. Doug Fister aggravating a previous injury has resulted in another disabled list trip, opening the door to Crosby's first big league start today.

Crosby's first start will be a daunting one, facing the Yankees, a top-10 run scoring offense, and one that is adept at working free passes. Sitting him for his first start is the smart move. Seeing how he fares will help provide some clarity as to whether he can help yearly leaguers. Those in dynasty leagues hosted on Yahoo! should make note that he's not currently in the player pool, and will be added to the database via the waiver process soon. His ceiling isn't high enough to warrant using a top waiver priority on in most dynasty leagues, but a middle-of-the-pack claim could be worth it when factoring in the expanded player pool this year.
Recommendation: Should be owned in some large mixed leagues and some AL-only leagues.


Roy Oswalt| Texas Rangers| SP| ESPN: 20.5 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 30 percent ownership
YTD: No stats
Oliver ROS: 3.78 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, 6.7 K/9

Ken Rosenthal tweeted about Oswalt throwing bullpen sessions for a few clubs almost two weeks ago. His seemingly imminent return prompted me to speculate on his fantasy value, and look in depth at his performance and PITCHf/x data in recent seasons for Fantasy Baseball 365. Now that a known destination is in place, with news of Oswalt signing a minor league deal with the Rangers, let's look at what that does to his value.

Oswalt will be trading the cozy confines of the National League for the Junior Circuit, which doesn't often bode well for pitchers' strikeout rate. He'll also be pitching in the home run and hitter friendly Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Pitching in a hitters park is nothing new to Oswalt, so that shouldn't be as large a concern as changing leagues.

If Oswalt were to lose anything off of his strikeout rate posted in 2011, it would be disastrous to his fantasy value. What should alleviate some of those concerns is that his strikeout rate may have been dragged down due to battling back issues. If he's healthy, he could be in line for a positive correction to his strikeout rate instead of the dip that is normally associated with changing leagues. Also, while wins are tough to predict, being backed by the offensive machine that is the Rangers lineup is a nice aid to his cause.

Oswalt is a fine stash option for large mixed league and AL-only league owners. Early indications are that he's going to head right to Triple-A Round Rock to prepare for eventually joining the Rangers rotation. He's expected to make at least four starts there, making late June the earliest he'll arrive in Arlington.
Recommendation: Should be stashed in all large mixed leagues with benches and all AL-only leagues.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Josh Shepardson 2012-05-31T10:05:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/al-waiver-wire-week-71/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/al-waiver-wire-week-71/#When:09:43:15 Manny Ramirez| Oakland A's| OF| ESPN: 1.3 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 4 percent ownership
YTD: .250/.357/.250 (Triple-A)
Oliver rest of season: .269/.372/.441

Will Manny be Manny when he joins the A's active roster on May 30?

He's a wild card, something I addressed at Fantasy Baseball 365 last week, but one with some upside. Anyone dreaming on Ramirez turning back the clock to his glory days needs to wake up, but gamers that look at his 2010 end-of-season line and see a player who could provide value to their roster should take note of his impending return. His atrocious 17-plate-appearance stay with the Rays last season may cast some doubt in the minds of many, but they are nothing more than 17 plate appearances. Weighing them too heavily would be a mistake.

What could prove more telling is what he was able to do in his last extended run of playing time, which came the season before as a member of the Dodgers and White Sox. In 2010 he showed superb plate discipline, and displayed the ability to barrel the ball up. His line drive rate that year was 22.7 percent, and actually jumped from 21.1 percent with the Dodgers to 28.3 percent with the White Sox, in spite of a 50-point drop in batting average. The culprit for the drop in average was a jump in pop-ups—his infield flyball rate skied to 21.4 percent. Things got worse with the Rays; that rate more than doubled to 50 percent. Perhaps this is an indicator that he is done being a productive hitter, but 105 plate appearances of a high pop-up rate are far too few for me to feel comfortable making that declaration.

One thing fairly safe to guess is that his home run output will be down. He'll be playing his home games in a ballpark that is pitcher friendly, though it is much tougher on left-handed power than right-handed pop. Even with a dip in power expected, if he is able to spray line drives around the field, he should help fantasy squads in batting average. Factor in that he is projected to be the club's primary designated hitter, and that he may hit cleanup, and he could bring run production stats to the table.

His stats in Triple-A don't jump off the page, but given his layoff, they aren't embarrassing, either. Feel free to take a flier on Ramirez if you are an owner in need of offensive production in deeper leagues where the pickings are slim.
Recommendation: Should be owned in some large mixed leagues starting five outfielders as well as some AL-only leagues.

Coco Crisp| Oakland A's| OF| ESPN: 29.8 percent, Yahoo! : 28 percent ownership
YTD: .175/.233/.188
Oliver ROS: .263/.321/.390

There are three things in life you can count on: death, taxes, and Crisp missing parts of seasons with injuries and ailments.

Recycled unfunny joke aside, when Crisp is on the diamond, he is a worthy player of fantasy owners' attention due to his elite stolen base ability. Between 2010 and 2011, Crisp stole 81 bases, placing him sixth in the majors in that time frame. He was one stolen base behind Ichiro Suzuki, but received 542 fewer plate appearances.

A big part of the reason he has less than 1,000 plate appearances over the last two seasons is his propensity to miss time with injuries. This season hasn't been much different, but Crisp has not been injured in 2012—he has missed time with a sinus infection and an inner ear infection. The inner ear infection resulted in a trip to the disabled list in early May. He was recently activated, and should be in the A's lineup on a near-daily basis.

His sub-Mendoza line batting average makes him a cheap target in leagues in which he is owned, and his low ownership rate suggests he's available for free in many others. Crisp won't fill up the stat sheet, but he has enough pop to hit a handful of home runs, and he hits well enough to finish with a passable batting average. His ability to thieve bags is why he should be owned in most leagues, though, and anything else he does should be considered nothing more than gravy. Owners who could use a jolt to their stolen base bottom line need to invest in Crisp.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues.

Gordon Beckham| Chicago White Sox| 2B| ESPN: 8.1 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 8 percent ownership
YTD: .204/.268/.359
Oliver ROS: .244/.305/.380

Beckham's solid debut in 2009 feels like a distant memory, and to some degree, for good reason. He has stunk up the joint, and it appears he has failed to make adjustments to big league pitchers adjusting to him. It looked like much of the same broken Beckham through April, but something funny has happened in May: He has looked like a competent hitter once again. May didn't only bring showers this year, but also brought back memories of a promising young hitter.

He has hit for power this month, ripping five home runs and sporting a .229 ISO in 92 plate appearances. He has cut down on strikeouts without sacrificing walks. In fact, his walk rate has gone up ever so slightly in May.

More encouraging still is that he has stopped popping the ball up at an absurd rate. In April, he had an infield flyball rate of 30.0 percent. That mark is down to 11.5 percent in May. Pop-ups were a problem last season as well, and any change to his batted ball data that includes a reduction to them is a positive.

He is also hitting more line drives, providing yet another reason for guarded optimism. His .241 batting average this month needs to be mentioned, as it does put into perspective that not all is great in the world of Beckham. However, he was talented enough to warrant a first-round selection in the 2008 amateur draft, and he should be monitored going forward. Owners in large mixed leagues using a middle infield position, and those in AL-only formats, should add Beckham now and see what this glimmer of hope leads to.
Recommendation: Should be owned in most large mixed leagues that use a middle infield position and most AL-only leagues.

Drew Smyly| Detroit Tigers| SP| ESPN: 40.6 percent ownership, Yahoo!: 33 percent ownership
YTD: 2.89 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2.68 BB/9, 9.07 K/9, 37.6 percent ownership
Oliver ROS: 4.17 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9, 7.2 K/9

As a prospect, Smyly got higher marks on his pitching intellect and polish than his stuff. He used his brain, and his ability to locate the baseball, to mow down High-A and Double-A batters last season. This year he came into spring training with an opportunity to win a spot in the Tigers rotation, and he did just that. He has rewarded the club for putting him in the rotation, and he has showcased a more intriguing repertoire than I would have expected given his scouting reports.

According to his Brooks Baseball player card, his four-seam fastball is averaging 92.13 mph, plenty of velocity for a southpaw. He also mixes in a cutter, a slider, a change-up, and infrequently a curveball or sinker for good measure. His four-seam fastball demonstrates a slightly above average whiff/swing rate, and his change-up and cutter a slightly below average whiff/swing rate. His slider and curveball, though, result in well above average empty swings.

He has had some good fortune with stranding runners, and is likely to see regression to his ERA, but there are reasons to believe he can be a useful pitcher in large mixed leagues and AL-only leagues. The optimist in me believes he'll outplay his Oliver rest of season projection slightly.
Recommendation: He should be owned in most large mixed leagues and all AL-only leagues.

Andy Pettitte| New York Yankees| SP| ESPN: 44.2, Yahoo! : 36 percent ownership
YTD: 2.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.11 BB/9, 8.02 K/9, 56.1 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 3.92 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, 6.8 K/9

I indicated above that Man-Ram won't be turning back the clock, but Pettitte is doing just that. Coming into the season, the Yankees appeared to have too many capable starters for just five spots in the rotation, and now, Pettitte finds himself filling a need for the Bronx Bombers. He is pounding the strike zone, inducing ground balls, and most surprisingly, missing bats with regularity.

Pettitte's fastball doesn't have as much giddy-up as it once did—he's 39 years old—but he was never a pitcher who got by on velocity. At his best, he filled up the strike zone and was able to coax batters into hitting the ball into the ground. That formula is working once again, in spite of his loss of velocity. He is using a five-pitch mix to befuddle and tie up opposing hitters. He is throwing three varieties of fastballs. His four-seam heater is getting the most use, but is backed by a cutter and sinker as well.

He is further keeping batters off balance by sprinkling in his curveball, 11 percent usage, and his change-up, six percent. His four-seam fastball has resulted in a whiff/swing rate of nearly a league average pitchIQ score, while his sinker and cutter are well above the norm. His curveball is missing bats at a poor rate, but he is making up for that fact by getting called strikes with the offering 46.88 percent of the time.

Pettitte is making the most of what he's got. He isn't going to continue to post a sub-3.00 ERA or strike out more than eight batters per-nine innings. Even still, Oliver's projection is reasonable, and as such, he looks like a fantastic option to round out fantasy staffs in large mixed leagues and AL-only formats. It remains to be seen how he'll hold up to the rigors of a full season's worth of work after sitting out the entire 2011 campaign, but backed by a top 10 scoring offense, and the owner of sparkling controllable stats, he is worth gambling on.
Recommendation: Should be owned in most large mixed leagues and AL-only formats.



Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Josh Shepardson 2012-05-25T09:43:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/al-waiver-wire-week-61/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/al-waiver-wire-week-61/#When:09:40:15 Dayan Viciedo| Chicago White Sox| OF| ESPN: 0.4 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 8 percent ownership
YTD: .237/.262/.407
Oliver ROS: .265/.310/.430

The man Hawk Harrelson calls Tank has his share of faults. He isn't patient, walking in just 2.5 percent of his plate appearances, and chasing 39.2 percent of pitches outside the strike zone (league average this season is 29.4 percent). He's striking out at an all-time high, albeit in a short major league career, and he's hitting a ton of ground balls. Finally, he's being slotted near the bottom of the White Sox order, which limits his opportunities to score runs and drive them in.

With the negatives out of the way, let's move on to why Viciedo needs to be rostered in a higher percentage of leagues. He has huge raw power, much of which is derived from his big body build. He has already crushed six home runs this year, and is on quite the tear, hitting a home run in three of his last four games. He has also collected multiple hits in three of those four games, and with only one strikeout in that time frame, could be finding his groove at the dish.

There are few ballparks that are as friendly to right-handed home run power as U.S. Cellular Field is. Pair Viciedo's home run happy digs with his plus power and you have a recipe for an easy 25 plus home run season. Owners would be hard pressed to find cheaper power available than that which Viciedo provides.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all large mixed leagues and AL-only formats as well as some shallow mixed leagues.

Xavier Avery| Baltimore Orioles| OF| ESPN: 0.4 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 0 percent ownership
YTD: .238/.304/.381
Oliver ROS: .237/.286/.332

Avery has long been considered more athlete than baseball player. He began translating his athleticism into usable skills in the Arizona Fall League (AFL), which I discussed in an AFL update last November. He has carried over his solid showing in Arizona to 2012, opening the year at Triple-A Norfolk before earning a call-up to the Orioles to replace injured left fielders Nolan Reimold and Endy Chavez.

I looked at Avery in depth for the Fantasy Baseball Cafe on Tuesday, so rather than rehashing the long version of what he brings to the table, I'd suggest reading that article.

In short, Avery is a speedy prototypical leadoff hitter. He's not afraid to work a walk, and while he has yet to steal a base for the Orioles, he did steal eight in eight chances for his Triple-A club. He has played in all five games since being summoned from the minors, and he has hit in the leadoff spot in four. The one game he did not bat leadoff was against Yankees southpaw CC Sabathia, the only left-handed starter the Orioles have faced in that time frame. He was slotted ninth in the order for that game.

He hasn't been over-matched in his limited taste of the majors, and so long as he is hitting atop the Orioles order, he has a chance to be an asset in not only the stolen base category, but also runs.

Recommendation: Should be owned by owners in need of steals in large mixed leagues and AL-only formats.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia| Boston Red Sox| C| ESPN: 4.3 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 18 percent ownership
YTD: .272/.299/.533
Oliver ROS: .236/.293/.424

Since I wrote Saltalamacchia's obituary as the Red Sox starting catcher in week one, suggesting that the team may turn to Ryan Lavarnway instead, he has come to life at the plate in a big way. In the last 30 days Salty is slashing .319/.333/.597 with four home runs in 72 at-bats.

He remains impatient, and he continues to strike out often, but he is hitting for power, and is a part of a Red Sox lineup that is fourth in the majors in runs scored. He's doing the bulk of his damage against right-handed pitchers, sitting occasionally for backup Kelly Shoppach against southpaws. On the favorable side of a platoon, Salty is proving to be valuable to fantasy owners.

Owned in far fewer leagues than J.P. Arencibia, Salty is essentially his fantasy equal. As long as he is getting regular playing time, he slots in the 10-15 range of catchers, making him ownable in 12-team mixed leagues, and long gone in two-catcher formats. Owners in single catcher leagues that are employing the cheap backstop strategy would be wise to look Salty's way.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all two catcher leagues, all AL-only leagues, and all single catcher leagues with 12 or more teams.

Wei-Yin Chen| Baltimore Orioles| SP| ESPN: 15.8 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 19 percent ownership
YTD: 2.66 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2.86 BB/9, 6.55 K/9, 33.3 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 3.66 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9

The Oliver projection system liked Chen more than I did coming into the season. Oliver is getting the better of me thus far, and having taken a look at his PITCHf/x player card at Brooks Baseball, I'm beginning to warm up to Chen.

His four-seam fastball and sinker sit in the low-90s on average, good velocity for a left-handed starting pitcher. Both pitches have well above average whiff/swing rates, with the sinker's rate being exceptionally high. His pitch location graphs in two-strike counts show that he is no stranger to going up the ladder with his fastball to attempt to induce empty swings.

The trade-off is his low groundball percentage, which will likely eventually lead to a few more taters than he has yielded in the early going. In addition to his four-seam fastball and sinker, Chen throws two breaking balls, a curveball and slider, as well as a third offspeed offering, a change-up. Of the non-fastball pitches, his curveball is the only one that results in empty swings at an above average rate. Neither the slider or change-up are hopeless pitches in regards to fishing for a strikeout, but neither would be classified as a put-away pitch at this juncture.

Chen has faced some stiff competition to date, and has been up to the challenge. He has allowed no more than three earned runs in seven starts, and has hit that total only one time in a turn against the Red Sox at Fenway. Four of his seven starts have come against top five run scoring offenses, with one start against the Red Sox, one against the Rangers, and two against the Yankees. He was outstanding in two of those starts, and didn't embarrass himself in the other two.

It will be interesting to see how the league adjusts to Chen as more tape and information is available, but it should be noted that he was better in his second start against the Yankees than in his first. That start provides encouragement that he won't turn into a pumpkin when batters see him a second time. He won't carry fantasy staffs, but he should be a reliable option to round out them out in larger mixed leagues and AL-only leagues.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all large mixed leagues and AL-only formats, and should be owned in some shallow mixed leagues.

Ryan Cook| Oakland A's| RP| ESPN: 1.8 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 13 percent ownership
YTD: 0.00 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 4.58 BB/9, 8.24 K/9, 46.5 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 4.13 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9, 6.3 K/9

One of the feel-good stories of 2012 has been the play of the A's. General manager Billy Beane overhauled the roster during the winter, trading away young starting pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill as well as young closer Andrew Bailey in an attempt to get—you guessed it—younger and cheaper.

In the midst of a rebuild, it is a bit surprising to see the club one game above .500, and ahead of the offseason's big spenders, the Angels, in the American League West. All that said, the A's aren't going to contend for a playoff spot, and should be sellers at the trade deadline. Teams are always in need of relief pitching, and Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes should provide Beane a couple of trade chips to continue the A's face lift.

Balfour began the year as the club's closer, and has since been demoted in favor of Fuentes. Neither has been the best reliever for the A's in 2012, though. That distinction is held by Cook, who has yet to yield an earned run. Cook was acquired from the Diamondbacks as part of the Cahill package, and he has been used in late-inning, high-leverage situations regularly.

He began his professional career being developed as a starting pitcher, but didn't truly flourish until the Diamondbacks turned him into a reliever full-time last year. He dominated at the Double-A level, pitched respectably at the Triple-A level, and struggled in less than 10 innings in the majors for the Diamondbacks.

As the stats would indicate, he has been much better this season. Cook possesses a live arm that generates two fastballs that average better than 95 mph. He flashed a change-up on occasion last year, but has thrown only four this year. When he's not lighting up the radar gun, he is throwing his slider.

In spite of a pitch mix that should show a platoon split, he has been equally tough on right-handed and left-handed batters. There is a good chance that the A's will eventually look to Cook to close games, whether that is because they trade Balfour and Fuentes or not. Owners in need of saves should act now before a change in ninth inning duties occurs. Meanwhile, Cook will provide cheap ratio help, some strikeouts, and possibly a few vulture wins and saves.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues in which non-closing relievers have value, and should be stashed by save-needy owners in large mixed leagues and AL-only leagues.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Josh Shepardson 2012-05-18T09:40:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/al-waiver-wire-week-51/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/al-waiver-wire-week-51/#When:09:01:15 Sean Rodriguez| Tampa Bay Rays| 2B/3B/SS| ESPN: 10.4 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 7 percent ownership
YTD: .228/.298/.315
Oliver Rest of season: .235/.310/.386

He certainly isn't the flashiest player to own, but this multi-position eligible Ray has some fantasy value. His most obvious value comes from the roster flexibility his positional eligibility awards owners. That said, a bad player who can play every position on the diamond doesn't have any value. Rodriguez isn't a bad player, though, and if you can get past his low batting average, his power and speed contribution is solid for a middle infielder.

In two seasons with the Rays, he has flirted with double digit home runs, hitting nine in 2010 and eight in 2011, in spite of receiving only a part-time work load. In those same seasons he swiped 13 bases, and 11 bases respectively. Not the type of numbers that will carry a fantasy team to a championship, but the type that can move the needle a bit in large mixed leagues and AL-only formats.

He's seeing the field daily for the Rays this year, and a hamstring tear for starting third baseman Evan Longoria all but assures that will continue to be the case for the foreseeable future.

While the bulk of Rodriguez's playing time has come at shortstop, the Rays' need to fill third base serves to award him a bit more leash to struggle than he would otherwise have. While I pointed out he could be a drag on batting average, he isn't as bad as his current average would suggest. His BABIP is on the low side thus far in 2012, and that is largely a result of hitting too many pop-ups and too few line drives. His plate discipline rates are mostly in line with his last few seasons, so it seems likely his batted ball data will drift to previous norms. If that's the case, he should hit somewhere in between his 2011 average of .223 and his 2010 mark of .251. That would still leave his average on the low side of rosterable, but the rest of his line plays at the middle infield position in large mixed leagues and AL-only leagues.

He is at his best again southpaws, with a career .776 OPS against them. In leagues with deep benches, he makes for an interesting platoon option, where his splits can be maximized.

Recommendation: Should be owned in most large mixed leagues starting a middle infielder, and all AL-only leagues.

Nolan Reimold| Baltimore Orioles| OF| ESPN: 21.8 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 31 percent ownership
YTD: .313/.333/.627
Oliver ROS: .258/.336/.448

Owners who drafted or scooped Reimold off the waiver wire in the early going were rewarded for their genius. In just 69 plate appearances, he smashed five home runs and added a stolen base. A herniated disk in his neck has sent him to the disabled list (retroactive to May 1), and many owners have responded by casting him off their teams.

Playing with a bulging disk upon activation from the disabled list is less than an ideal situation, but one that Will Carroll says is possible in his May 2 Under The Knife article. Orioles manager Buck Showalter has suggested Reimold will need to play in a few rehab games before being activated, according to the Orioles official website. It does, however, sound promising that he'll be back shortly after his eligible date.

Owners with bench flexibility, or an open DL spot, would be wise to grab Reimold now. His stellar play extends back to September of last season, making his hot start this year seem much less flukey. In 81 plate appearances last September, he clubbed five home runs, was perfect in stealing six bases in six chances, hit .281, and sported a sterling walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB:K) of 9:14. His plate discipline didn't carry over to the early part of this season, but he has a history of walking at an above average rate, and it is hard to fault a hot hitter for wanting to swing the bat and smack the ball around the yard. If the pain caused by his neck can be kept in check, he could be a very cheap source of 20-plus home runs the rest of the year.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues that start five outfielders on theams that have a bench or disabled list roster spot.

Wil Myers| Kansas City Royals| OF| ESPN: 0 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 0 percent ownership
YTD: .339/.394/.722 (Double-A)
Oliver ROS: .290/.335/.627

Myers had a rough 2011 season, but began to put that in his rear view mirror with an explosive Arizona Fall League campaign. His hot stick has stayed ablaze in his return to the Double-A Texas League. He has hit a home run in each of his last four games, and five of his last six (he's playing as I write this on Thursday night).

The MLE for his Double-A production is .290/.335/.627. That line is nothing to sneeze at. What may be as important to his immediate future as his hitting prowess is his new defensive home. Myers is patrolling center field for Northwest Arkansas, and according to J.J. Cooper of Baseball America, he may be taking his center field act to Triple-A Omaha soon enough(subscription required to read).

A move to center field presents the clearest path to the majors, and the thinking is that he can play the position passably for the next few years. If Myers continues to rip the cover off baseballs upon his promotion to Triple-A, a late summer cup of coffee with the Royals isn't out of the question. Those in keeper or dynasty leagues that require a player to play in a major league game before rostering them should keep his accelerated timetable in mind before burning a high waiver priority or large chunk of the FAAB budget on a non-impact player.

Recommendation: Should be rostered only in keeper and dynasty leagues, but should be added to watch lists in AL-only formats.

Hisashi Iwakuma| Seattle Mariners| SP| ESPN: 1 percent, Yahoo! : 0.3 percent
YTD: 6.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2.25 BB/9, 10.13 K/9, 47.3 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 3.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9, 7.5 K/9

He didn't receive the acclaim of fellow Nippon Professional Baseball import Yu Darvish, but Iwakuma was a star there, and his Oliver projection reflects that. He doesn't possess the stuff of Darvish, but according to his Brooks Baseball player card, he mixes three fastballs, a four-seam fastball, a sinker, and a splitter, with two breaking balls, a curveball and slider, to attack opposing batters. The average velocity ranges from 73.86 mph on his curveball to 90.54 on his four-seamer, giving him a variety of looks to keep hitters off balance.

Working exclusively in relief as a long man, his pitches have been effective. He worked multiple innings in two of three appearances, which may diminish the impact of his stuff "playing up" in the bullpen. All three of his fastballs are generating ample empty swings, but his curveball is drawing a lot of wood. The curve does draw some called strikes, and it also induces ground balls at a healthy clip, so it has its purpose.

As his stats above illustrate, he is pounding the strike zone, racking up strikeouts, and inducing ground balls at a strong rate. His strikeout rate is higher than it was in Japan, so some regression is probably in order there, but his walk rate and ability to induce ground balls are an extension of his play in the NPB.

Kevin Millwood and Hector Noesi have been beaten like drums so far this year, and Blake Beavan's 3.78 K/9 would fit right into the league leaders, if it were the late 1800s, and could pose problems for him in the future. Iwakuma's most recent relief appearance came after Miguel Cabrera line drive">Beavan exited with an elbow contusion that resulted from getting struck by a Miguel Cabrera line drive.

Beavan's next start may be pushed back, but he doesn't appear to be in any danger of needing a disabled list stint, so for now, the Mariners' rotation is full. But as I alluded to above, there are three candidates for flubbing their starting pitching roles, and Iwakuma is on a short list to fill that role when it presents itself. His value is limited in the short term, but owners in large mixed leagues should add him to their watch list, and owners in AL-only leagues in need of pitching help should preemptively nab and stash him in the anticipation of a role change.

Recommendation: Should be on watch lists in large mixed leagues, and stashed by owners with bench flexibility in need of pitching help in AL-only formats.

Felipe Paulino| Kansas City Royals| SP| ESPN: 0.3 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 3 percent ownership
YTD: 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3.00 BB/9, 9.00 K/9, 53.3 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 4.83 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9

If one didn't know better, they may believe I'm a closet Royals fan having, unfortunately, touted Luke Hochevar before the season, Danny Duffy early this year, and now Paulino here this week. That assessment would be incorrect; my interest in Paulino dates back to his tenure on the Astros' active roster.

The reason is pretty simple: Paulino throws really, really hard, and he has some idea where the baseball is going (3.74 BB/9 in his career, and 3.47 BB/9 with the Royals last year). His average velocity on his four-seam fastball in 3,398 pitches tracked by PITCHf/x is a blistering 96.02 mph. He backs it with a slider, curveball, and change-up, with the slider getting the bulk of the usage. It's his best secondary pitch, so it only makes sense that he'd turn to it more often than the others, but his curveball and change-up give him the type of pitch mix to go after batters of either handedness. His batted ball data have fluctuated throughout his career, but he t has shown an ability to keep the ball on the ground.

In many ways, Paulino is a poster child for the dangers of blindly relying on advanced metrics. He has routinely had an ERA above his FIP, xFIPand other advanced measures that normalize certain component stats.

One culprit for Paulino's "poor luck" is a sky high career BABIP of .339. Having pitched 87 games in the majors, including 55 starts, that have spanned over 350 innings, it is probably safe to say he's not simply a victim of bad luck. The old adage is that power pitches provide the power to hitters, and that may apply to Paulino, though, I'm not sure how to prove or disprove that notion. Suffice to say, expecting Paulino to suddenly stop giving up hits on batted balls put in play at a higher than average rate is wishful thinking at best, and foolish thinking at worst.

One positive fantasy attribute he has displayed consistently is the ability to strike out batters at a high rate (8.30 K/9). If his control gains from last season stick for the long haul, he should provide value to large mixed league and AL-only owners. Pitching his home games at Kauffman Stadium should help suppress his home run rate below his career mark. A high three-to-low-four ERA is well within reach, and good enough to make him ownable for his strikeouts in certain leagues.

Recommendation: Should be owned by strikeout-needy owners in large mixed leagues and AL-only leagues.

Casey Janssen| Toronto Blue Jays| RP| ESPN: 11.1 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 21 percent ownership
YTD: 4.76 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 0.79 BB/9, 9.53 K/9, 43.8 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 3.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 7.9 K/9

If a closer's mentality doesn't prove to be enough, do the so-called baseball purists make a noise? Similar to the philosophical debate about a tree falling in the woods with no one around, except for the fact it is not similar at all, the cries of closer mentality have turned to whimpers north of the U.S. border, where Francisco Cordero, veteran of 329 career saves, has coughed up the interim closer gig to Janssen.

Sergio Santos, the Opening Day closer, is on the disabled list with a shoulder strain. If he doesn't suffer any setbacks, he should be back by June, though, it is anyone's guess how his shoulder will hold up as he works to rebuild strength after his period of inactivity. Regardless of the length of his absence, Janssen is the man to own on the Blue Jays by those in need of saves.

He doesn't bring the cheddar of a prototypical hard throwing closer, but his formula for success is clear: Throw strikes, and get ahead of hitters. The throw strikes part of the equation is the clearest it has ever been in Janssen's career if you use his walk rate as the measure, but his first pitch strike rate this year is merely average, as opposed to notably above average as it has been the last two years.

Three home runs have inflated his ERA a bit this season. Last year he allowed only two in 55 appearances, and his HR/9 in 2009 and 2010 were in the general vicinity of league average, making his propensity for serving up gopher balls a recent problem, not a career long one. A reversion back to his groundball rates of previous years should also help quell his tater issues.

Snarky comments about closer mentality aside, Janssen doesn't have a lengthy track record of saving games, so his leash may be short. It's also possible, but not necessarily probable, that the pressure of pitching in the ninth inning of games will turn Janssen into a lump of coal as opposed to the diamond fantasy owners who invest in his services hope for. As his inclusion in this week's article would suggest, taking a chance on Janssen is a worthwhile endeavor.

Recommendation: Should be nearly universally owned while he serves as the Blue Jays' closer.

Ernesto Frieri| Los Angeles Angels| RP| ESPN: 11.5 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 17 percent ownership
YTD: 1.88 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 4.40 BB/9, 15.07 K/9, 22.2 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 4.36 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9, 9.2 K/9

Frieri is a tightrope walker, succeeding in spite of his high walk rate and his flyball-centric approach. He's able to navigate through this challenging approach by striking out batters in bunches.

He came to the Angels by way of a trade with the Padres at the beginning of this month. With a number of other talented relievers in the Padres bullpen the last two seasons, Frieri wasn't often called upon for the highest leverage situations at the end of ballgames. Since joining the Angels, he has been thrust into an integral late inning role, and he may be in line for some save opportunities should demoted former closer Jordan Walden fail to seize back his previous gig.

Scott Downs is serving as the team's closer at the moment, but may best aid the Angels bullpen by remaining available to get tough lefties out before the ninth inning. Hisanori Takahashi is the club's only other left-handed pitcher in the bullpen, and he hasn't been as tough on left-handed batters in his career as Downs has.

Owners hoping to vulture every save possible should scoop up Frieri and hope for the best. He has large mixed league and AL-only value currently as a high strikeout reliever who can help ratios.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all large mixed leagues and AL-only formats as well as by saves-strapped owners in shallower formats.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Josh Shepardson 2012-05-11T09:01:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/al-waiver-wire-week-41/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/al-waiver-wire-week-41/#When:07:25:15 William Middlebrooks| Boston Red Sox| 3B| ESPN: 3.3 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 13 percent ownership
YTD: .667/.750/1.000
Oliver Rest of season: .255/.298/.448

Baseball America rated Middlebrooks the top prospect in the Red Sox organization coming into the year. It should be noted that his high prospect standing is based in large part on stellar scouting reports of his defense. That said, his ranking was also aided by projection of future offensive growth. While his defense means nothing in standard fantasy baseball leagues, we are seeing that offensive growth in full force this season. Middlebrooks was tearing the cover off the ball for Pawtucket, hitting .333/.380/.677 with nine home runs in 100 plate appearances. That line translated to a .316/.359/.612 MLE. His walk rate remains on the low side, but his strikeout rate was also quite low for a player producing the type of power numbers he was.

His hot play, and a stiff lower back that sent Red Sox starting third baseman Kevin Youkilis to the disabled list, prompted a promotion. He has played in one game for his parent club, recording two hits and a walk in four plate appearances.

For all of the Red Sox' faults, their ability to put crooked numbers on the scoreboard isn't one of them. The team ranks fourth in the majors in runs scored, and Middlebrooks should benefit from the club's ability to score runs even if he remains in the bottom third of the order (he was eighth in the lineup in his major league debut). Youkilis has struggled to stay on the field in recent years, and hasn't played in more than a 140 games since 2008. It looks like Middlebrooks' stay in the majors will be brief, but if he makes a good first impression, or Youkilis suffers a setback with his stiff back, he could find himself in line for more playing time than initially expected.

His impatience could lead to some early struggles if pitchers are able to exploit it, but his power potential is worth gambling on. The hot corner has been ravaged by injury of late, leaving many scrambling to the waiver wire for help. Middlebrooks is a good speculative plug and play. If he comes out of the gates on fire, his prospect buzz makes him a strong sell candidate. For now, give Middlebrooks a look if you have a roster spot to play around with, or are one of the unlucky owners of an injured third baseman.

Recommendation: Should be owned in most large mixed leagues, and most AL-only formats.

Eric Thames| Toronto Blue Jays| OF| ESPN: 1.1 percent ownership, Yahoo!: 5 percent ownership
YTD: .292/.350/.431
Oliver ROS: .267/.326/.464

Travis Snider breathing down his neck a few weeks back">Since I speculted that Thames may be on thin ice and feeling Travis Snider breathing down his neck a few weeks back, he has made me look a bit foolish by finding his groove at the dish. He is playing every day of late, and that can probably be attributed in large part to his new-found success against southpaws. While the obligatory small sample size warning is in order, he is hitting .313/.389/.438 against left-handed pitchers in 16 at-bats with two walks and just three strikeouts. He is showing improved control of the strike zone this season by both walking more frequently and striking out less often.

His power is down a bit this year, but he has shown enough pop in the past to suggest he'll finish the year with around 20 taters with full time work. The Blue Jays lineup is scoring runs in bunches, ranking sixth in the majors in runs scored, in spite of Jose Bautista's early season struggles. There are counting stats to be had investing in the Blue Jays offense. Owners in need of someone to round out their fake team's outfield would doing themselves a favor turning to the widely available Thames.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues that start five outfielders, and most that start three outfielders.

Travis d'Arnaud| Toronto Blue Jays| C| ESPN: 0 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 0 percent ownership
YTD: .274/.346/.421 (Triple-A)
Oliver ROS: .247/.295/.424

My high opinion of d'Arnaud's future fantasy value is previously chronicled by his ranking ninth on the Top-100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect list. His season line is weighted down by a slow start, but he has heated up in his last 10 games, hitting .349/.396/.535 with five doubles and a home run in 43 at-bats. Blue Jays starting catcher J.P. Arencibia has been cold to start the year (of course, as I type this, he sends a Dan Haren offering into the seats for a three run shot), which could open the door to a d'Arnaud promotion.

When that promotion comes likely hinges on both d'Arnaud continuing to hit and Arencibia continuing to struggle. If Arencibia rights the ship, the organization will have little incentive to bring up d'Arnaud and prevent both catchers from playing on an everyday basis. Owners in one-catcher mixed leagues formats shouldn't be too concerned with d'Arnaud this season. He remains a good keeper league and dynasty league prospect in those formats, but his value will be limited to two-catcher leagues and AL-only formats this season. That said, owners in those deeper formats where putrid offensive options are owned should be quick on the trigger if there are so much as whispers of d'Arnaud reaching The Show.

Recommendation: Should be stashed in some large mixed leagues that start two catchers as well as some AL-only formats.

Rafael Soriano| New York Yankees| RP| ESPN: 0.7 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 11 percent ownership
YTD: 2.25 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 6.75 BB/9, 9.00 K/9, 29.2 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 3.54 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, 9.0 K/9

On Thursday night, Yankees closer Mariano Rivera was injured shagging flyballs. An MRI revealed the team's worst fears, he tore his ACL and will miss the remainder of the year. Awful news for a pitcher who is considered by most, and rightfully so, to be the greatest closer of all time. I hope this injury won't be the end of Rivera's career; it would be a shame for him to have to hang up his cleats on such a down note.

It feels cold to address the aftermath of the injury, but alas, the Yankees will be tasked with doing so, and fantasy owners will be reacting to the injury as well. With that in mind, only two players are realistically in the hunt for save opportunities in the Bronx.

David Robertson is clearly the Yankees' best reliever (and owned as such, with a 46 percent Yahoo! ownership rate), but the best reliever doesn't always get the closing job.

Soriano owns a distinct advantage in career saves over Robertson with 90 to Robertson's three. If manager Joe Girardi believes in "closer mentality," Soriano has shown the ability to nail down games, and Robertson hasn't (through no fault of his own).

Soriano is no longer the elite reliever that his numbers with the Rays would lead one believe he was. His fastball is down a few ticks from his peak velocity days, and his swinging strike rate has dropped a bit in recent years. That said, he continues to get more empty swings than the league average pitcher. His flyball-heavy approach will be put to the test in homer-friendly Yankee Stadium, but saves are saves, and he shouldn't be a complete disaster. If given the choice between Robertson or Soriano, I'd choose Robertson, but many won't have that luxury, and grabbing Soriano is a solid alternative.

Recommendation: Should be owned by all save-starved owners regardless of league size and format.

Kyle Drabek| Toronto Blue Jays| SP| ESPN: 21.4 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 29 percent ownership
YTD: 2.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 4.50 BB/9, 7.80 K/9, 51.9 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 5.27 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9, 6.0 K/9

Drabek was wretched in 2011. There is no way to positively spin that season, and for all intents and purposes, it was a lost year of development. Back from the dead, Drabek is pitching much better this year. He remains a work in progress, with a poor walk rate and a first pitch strike rate of just 54.1 percent (league average is 59.2 percent this year), but there are reasons to be optimistic. He is inducing ground balls at a high rate, and displaying bat-missing stuff.

Drabek, according to his Brooks Baseball player card, is mixing three varieties of fastball (four-seam, sinker and cutter) with a curveball and change-up. All but the four-seam fastball are generating a whiff/swing rate well above his pitching peers marks.

He was especially tough to barrel up in his last start against the Rangers. In that game he threw 104 pitches and earned whiffs on a staggering 18 of them. Looking at his inning-by-inning breakdown, you'll see his ability to throw strikes waned late, but he still finished with an impressive final line against a potent Rangers lineup.

His next start comes Saturday against a struggling Angels offense that ranks 21st in runs scored. There is blow-up potential if he struggles to throw strikes, but he has allowed no more than two runs in any of his five starts, making him a strong match-up play, and possibly much more. Drabek's upside is worth gambling on, and he has earned a bit of leash should he struggle in a start or two.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all large mixed leagues and AL-only formats, and some shallower leagues.

Joel Peralta| Tampa Bay Rays| RP| ESPN: 0.9 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 5 percent ownership
YTD: 5.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.97 BB/9, 11.12 K/9, 33.3 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 3.10 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, 8.8 K/9

The Rays continue to impress with their ability to grab relievers off the scrap heap and thrust them into late-inning roles. Last year Kyle Farnsworth turned in a banner season as the club's closer, and this year, while he is on the disabled list, the team is getting more than it paid for from Fernando Rodney.

Rodney is perfect in nine save chances, and his formula for success is clear. He is throwing strikes (something he has struggled to do throughout his career), striking batters out at a high rate, and getting the opposition to pound the ball into the ground. Unless the wheels completely fall off the Rodney bus, he'll be closing games until Farnsworth is activated from the DL, and perhaps beyond that.

What is lost in the outstanding pitching of Farnsworth last year, and Rodney this year, is just how good Peralta has been. After a sensational 2010 season with the Nationals in which he posted an ERA just above two, the club surprisingly non-tendered him. The Nationals' loss was the Rays' gain, as he went on to post a 2.93 ERA as one of manager Joe Maddon's favorite eighth inning options in 2011. He got off to a rough start this year, allowing earned runs in three of his first four appearances, including a disastrous four earned run performance in which he didn't record an out against the Red Sox on April 13.

Since that game, he has appeared in 10 more, and the results are eye-popping. In that span, he has pitched 9.2 scoreless innings, allowing one walk, three hits, and striking out 11. The result is a 0.00 ERA, 0.41 WHIP, 0.93 BB/9 and 10.24 K/9 in his last 10 appearances. He has vultured one save, and is the most likely candidate to record a save when Rodney is unavailable. He's a great LIMA (low investment mound aces) option, and is quite valuable in leagues with low innings pitched limits. The volatility of relievers is evident, but with consecutive seasons of outstanding work, and a string of dominant relief appearances, Peralta is one of the safer options going.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues where non-closing relievers have value as well as all leagues where vulture saves are at a premium.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Josh Shepardson 2012-05-04T07:25:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/al-waiver-wire-week-31/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/al-waiver-wire-week-31/#When:09:19:15 Vernon Wells| Los Angeles Angels| OF| ESPN: 27 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 38 percent ownership
YTD: .243/.264/.471
Oliver rest of season p[rojection: .249/.293/.435

Amidst the jokes and ridiculing of Wells' albatross of a contract, it is easy to lose sight of the fact he hit 25 home runs in 2011, and that fantasy owners aren't footing the bill. He had basically no value beyond the power, hitting .218, but a bump to his average this season could make him a solid fourth or fifth outfielder in large mixed leagues. The power has returned this year, as he has four home runs in 68 plate appearances, and—wouldn't you look at that—his average is up to .243. He won't win a batting title with that average, but it is palatable, and his high line drive rate suggests there is some upside for average.

Many anxious Mike Trout owners are waiting for him to patrol the outfield for the Angels instead of the Salt Lake Bees. That time will come some time in 2012, but it isn't a slam dunk it will come at Wells' expense. Peter Bourjos is off to a wretched start, and while he's a far superior defender to Wells, he is also a young player with options remaining. Bourjos was also a popular name in trade rumors last July, leaving open another possible path to playing time for Trout should he be dealt.

In short, don't assume Wells is a place-holder who will see his playing time reduced to nil in the near future. Owners in need of a little thump in their outfield could do worse than turning to Wells.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all large mixed leagues and AL-only formats.

Matt LaPorta| Cleveland Indians| 1B| ESPN: 0 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 0 percent ownership
YTD: .364/.427/.667 (Triple-A)
Oliver ROS: .253/.320/.419

LaPorta's hot start, which translates to an MLE of .317/.376/.554, coincides with an ice-cold start at first base for free agent acquisition Casey Kotchman. Kotchman has an ugly .140/.234/.263 slash in 65 plate appearances this season. He has had some bad luck with a .128 BABIP, but for a player who relies on a stellar glove and high batting average to offset his lack of typical first base pop, his current line is well below acceptable. He is currently mired in an 0-20 slump, and has been benched in two of the last four games in favor of Jose Lopez. It may not be much longer before the team decides to take another extended look at LaPorta.

LaPorta has proven he can hit Triple-A pitching, but the onus is now on him to prove he's more than a Quad-A masher. There are 1,008 reasons to question whether he can hit major league pitching. In that number of plate appearances, he has a career line of .238/.304/.397.

Now 27, LaPorta isn't likely to get many more chances. He was considered a polished college hitter with thump when he was drafted, and he remains a hitter with raw power that he has failed to translate fully to the majors. If this trip to Columbus was the one that turned the light switch on, LaPorta can be an asset to fantasy owners in home runs. He makes enough contact to think that he won't be a total drag in batting average if he has truly figured it out. I remain skeptical, but he could be the next late bloomer story, and is worth keeping tabs on in highly competitive large mixed leagues and AL-only formats.

Recommendation: Should be added to watch lists, but not necessary to stash.

Brad Eldred| Detroit Tigers| UTIL| Not available in ESPN or Yahoo! player pool
YTD: .388/.444/1.013
Oliver ROS: .364/.416/.969

If LaPorta would be a late bloomer breaking through the ceiling of Quad-A hitter at age 27, what would that make Eldred, who is 31 and a veteran of 3,840 minor league plate appearances? I'm not sure what that would make him, but if it results in fantasy production, who cares?

Eldred is a large man, and will be restricted to designated hitter duties for the Tigers. It should come as no surprise his calling card is power. He has 240 round trippers in his minor league career, which prorates to 37.5 home runs per 600 plate appearances. He has seen time in the majors in three seasons—27 plate appearances in 2010, 47 in 2007, and 208 all the way back in 2005. That's not much of an opportunity to prove to prove his bat could stick.

In that limited time he was able to show off plus thump, hitting 15 home runs with a .215 ISO in 282 plate appearances. Unfortunately for him, his plus power came with a penchant for striking out (36.5 percent strikeout rate), and not enough patience (5.7 percent walk rate).

He's getting another look in no small part because the Tigers have struggled to get production from their designated hitters. That said, he's also earned a call-up thanks to crushing International League pitching. He has drilled 12 home runs, and has a .610 ISO in 86 plate appearances, and his slash translates to an MLE of .364/.416/.969. Suffice to say, he's a hot bat, and he's locked in.

The Tigers may simply be hoping to cash in on that while it lasts, but that's no reason to completely dismiss him in fantasy games. He's not going to sustain his current level of play, and there's a good chance that he'll fall flat on his face. However, owners in large mixed leagues and AL-only formats who are hurting in home runs should take a gamble on Eldred. It remains to be seen where he'll slot in the lineup, but somewhere in the five-to-seven range is a safe guess. That would plant him behind OBP machines Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, which will lead to opportunities to drive in runs.

Because he's not available in either ESPN or Yahoo! league player pools, he'll likely be only utility eligible when he is added. That hurts his flexibility, but if his power plays well enough to offset his strikeout rate and keep him in The Show, he'll be worth tying up a utility spot for.

Recommendation: Should be added by power starved owners in extremely large mixed leagues and AL-only formats after he clears waivers, or for a late waiver priority/$1-3 FAAB bid.

Luke Hochevar| Kansas City Royals| SP| ESPN: 1.9 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 9 percent ownership
YTD: 4.98 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 3.32 BB/9, 6.65 K/9, 42.2 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 4.39 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9

This is my way of reminding you that Hochevar is under-owned. I've spouted off plenty about the skills gain he showed after the All-Star break last year, but an ugly line in his second start of the season has probably led to questions about whether they were real.

That question is reasonable given Hochevar's lackluster results in the past, but I'm inclined to continue to believe in his breakout that began last year. The ugly start isn't as bad as it appeared, something I addressed in depth in the comment section of the year's first AL Waiver Wire column. His other three starts have been much better and resulted in two wins, a 2.55 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 17.2 innings pitched.

It would be foolish to stick one's head in the sand and pretend his bad start didn't happen, but it would be equally foolish to dismiss his post-All-Star break results of 2011 and three solid turns in 2012 as a fluke. Get back on the Hochevar bandwagon; I assure you, my driving isn't that bad.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow mixed leagues.

Jeff Niemann| Tampa Bay Rays| SP| ESPN: 4.5 percent ownership, Yahoo!: 10 percent ownership
YTD: 4.11 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.93 BB/9, 9.39 K/9, 51.2 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 4.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, 6.7 K/9

Niemann is the "other guy," in a talented Rays rotation that gets plenty of fantasy love. He doesn't have fantasy ace potential, but he quietly gets by as a low-four ERA guy who fills up the strike zone (which helps his WHIP), induces ground balls at a solid rate, and strikes out batters at a hair below league average rate. When he is on, he does all three things a pitcher has the most control over: throwing strikes, missing bats, and determining batted ball type, even better. He's following up a season, 2011, in which he posted his best xFIP in promising fashion.

He's using a five-pitch mix to miss bats at a high rate thus far. He's throwing a four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, curveball, and change-up according to his Brooks Baseball player card. Four of his five pitches are getting batters to miss at a significantly higher rate than that of his pitching contemporaries. The only one that isn't doing so is his curveball, which has been effective by getting looking strikes at a high rate, and coaxing ground balls often when the ball is put in play.

If he continues to rack up strikeouts at a higher rate than his career mark, limit his free passes, and keep the ball on the ground, he's got a shot to post an ERA in the mid-to-high-3s. He has produced a better than league average WHIP each of the last three seasons, and is backed by an offense that ranks eighth in runs scored thus far, something that bodes well for his chance at earning wins. All-in-all, there is a lot to like about Niemann, and he is grossly underrated, and under-owned.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all large mixed leagues and AL-only formats, and some shallower formats for favorable matchups.

Matt Thornton| White Sox| RP| ESPN: 16.9 percent ownership, Yahoo! : 40 percent ownership
YTD: 0.93 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 0.00 BB/9, 7.45 K/9, 55.2 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 3.10 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, 9.6 K/9

My favorite to lead the White Sox in saves at season's end remains Addison Reed, whom I wrote about during the first week of the season. Reed should be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues for his ability to help in ERA, WHIP and strikeout in the short term, and saves in the long term.

However, should the club remove Hector Santiago from the closer role, something Robin Ventura doesn't appear ready to do just yet, Thornton will probably get the first crack.

Thornton put a brutal April behind him last year to finish with a stat line that falls in line with the bulk of his White Sox career. He remains a power southpaw who has success by following a simple formula of throwing tons of mid-to-high-90s fastballs. He has yet to walk a batter this season, but has hit one. He's getting ground balls at a high rate.

Considering it is Santiago's whiplash-causing home runs that have created this potentially fluid closing situation in the first place, keeping balls in the yard by keeping them on the ground is a desirable trait for Thornton to possess. Owners in need of saves, or even owners looking to dump a non-rosterable player for an asset, should add Thornton in the hopes of one more Santiago implosion opening the door to Thornton closing ballgames.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all large mixed leagues and AL-only formats, and most shallow formats.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Josh Shepardson 2012-04-27T09:19:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/al-waiver-wire-week-25/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/al-waiver-wire-week-25/#When:09:18:15 Josh Reddick| Oakland A's| OF| ESPN: 2.0 percent ownership, Yahoo!: 4 percent ownership
YTD: .298/.313/.447
Oliver ROS: .235/.285/.407

He won't wow you with his power or speed, but Reddick is a perfect example of the importance of lineup position. He has played in 12 games this year, and has been slotted third in the order for nine of them. Put another way, 36 of his 47 at-bats have come hitting third in the lineup. Hitting in the heart of the A's order should award him the opportunity to be a fantasy contributor in runs and RBIs. His home run total should settle in at season's end in the high-teens-to-low-20s range. He's not much of a stolen base threat, but should steal a handful.

The toughest aspect of Reddick's game to project in fantasy is his batting average. Reddick is a left-handed hitter with a reverse platoon split in his limited time in the majors. Looking back at his minor league splits (2007-2010, 2011) leads to more questions than answers. He has shown standard splits at various times in the minors, while exhibiting the same reverse split he's shown in the majors in other periods.

The optimistic, and perhaps realistic, conclusion is that he can hit both left-handed, and right-handed pitching well. If that is the case, Reddick is capable of, at worst, not hurting batting average, and at best, helping fantasy teams in the category. Thus far, he is getting good wood on the ball and smoking line drives at a 35.9 percent clip. Last year he did a very good job of squaring the ball up and roped line drives at a 23.3 percent clip. Taking into consideration he makes a lot of contact, and rarely strikes out, a .275-.280 batting average is a reasonable projection going forward.

The one thing that immediately stands out as a red flag, and could derail that projection, is a swinging rate on balls outside the strike zone (o-swing) of 37.7 percent, a rate that is almost nine percent higher than league average in 2012. Last year, his o-swing rate was almost exactly league average, so it is too early to panic. That said, it does warrant monitoring.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all large mixed leagues that start five outfielders, some large mixed leagues that start three outfielders, and all AL-only leagues.

Luke Scott| Tampa Bay Rays| 1B/OF| ESPN: 5.0 percent ownership, Yahoo!: 14 percent ownership
YTD: .333/.379/.741
Oliver ROS: .262/.342/.490

Wolverine, I mean, Luke Scott, is making the Rays front office look good for plucking him off the scrap heap. Scott struggled with injuries in 2011, the worst of which were SLAP and posterior labrum tears that required shoulder surgery. When on the field, he failed to sting the ball with the same authority he had in seasons past.

This year, it looks like he has regained much of the punch that made him a safe bet to hit roughly 25 home runs over the course of a full season. He has already found the seats three times for the Rays. He won't continue to hit home runs at this torrid a pace, but with good health, he should be a cheap source of power. Expect regression to his batting average as the season wears on. He isn't hitting line drives at a high rate, has historically struggled with left-handed pitching, and will see more of his flyballs stay in the yard, and likely, find mitts. All things considered, his career batting average of .265 is a solid base line with upside of a bit higher, and downside of a bit worse.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all large mixed leagues that start five outfielders, some large mixed leagues that start three outfielders, and all AL-only leagues.

Eduardo Nunez| New York Yankees| 2B/SS/3B| ESPN: 2.1 percent ownership, Yahoo!: 4 percent ownership
YTD: .400/.412/.400
Oliver ROS: .276/.313/.375

The Yankees were dealt a blow with Brett Gardner landing on the disabled list Wednesday night. It is unclear how much time he'll miss, but the hope is that he'll be ready to return when he's eligible to be activated from the 15-day DL. Meanwhile, Nunez looks to be the primary beneficiary. Nunez will be practicing in the outfield, and could find himself in the mix for playing time there. He should also see extra playing time as the result of Raul Ibanez and Andruw Jones playing left-field, thus, freeing the designated hitter spot to Nunez or some of the Yankees' veteran infielders.

Nunez is an accomplished base stealer: In 150 games in the majors, he has stolen 28 bases in 34 chances. He has a .273 batting average in 408 plate appearances for the Yankees. His low strikeout rate (9.8 percent) and reasonable .291 BABIP suggest he should continue to hit at roughly that rate. His line drive rate isn't especially high (18.4 percent), and his pop-out rate is quite high (23.4 percent infield flyball rate), so projecting an uptick in his BABIP is unwise until there is some change to his batted ball profile.

He'll hit at the bottom of the Yankees order, but should see ample run scoring and run producing opportunities as part of a high scoring offensive club. Further enhancing Nunez's value is that he holds three infield position eligibility in Yahoo! leagues, and is shortstop and third base eligible in ESPN leagues. That type of versatility can be incredibly valuable in deep leagues that allow daily lineup changes. Given the uncertainty of when Gardner will return, Nunez could be better than your average stopgap speed boost.

Recommendation: Should be owned in most large mixed leagues that use an MI while Brett Gardner is on the DL, and should be owned in all AL-only leagues while Gardner is out.

Denard Span| Minnesota Twins| OF| ESPN: 17.1 percent ownership, Yahoo!: 16 percent ownership
YTD: .340/.380/.468
Oliver ROS: .276/.338/.372

As mentioned above in the Reddick write-up, lineup slot can mean everything to a player's fantasy value. If not for hitting leadoff, Span wouldn't be much of a fantasy option at all. He doesn't hit for much pop, and his plus speed has translated to no more than 26 stolen bases in a season (he stole 26 in 705 plate appearances in 2010). However, hitting leadoff helps accentuate his strong on-base skills, and makes him a contributor in runs scored. Pair that with his mid-20s stolen base ability, and you've got the foundation laid for a valuable fantasy outfielder.

At his best, Span adds a high batting average to his fantasy profile. He hit .294 in 2008, and .311 in 2009. Unfortunately for Span, his batting average bottomed out to .264 in both 2010 and 2011. The biggest difference between his good batting average seasons and his bad ones has been his BABIP. In 2011, he saw his pop-out rate jump to a career high, but beyond that, his batted ball profile has been relatively static year-to-year.

Span recognizes his game is predicated on speed, and he rarely hits the ball in the air. He makes a ton of contact, and that contact has been hard in the early going this year. He is hitting line drives at a 27.5 percent clip in 2012. Expect some regression, but as long as he is spraying line drives around the diamond, and pounding balls into the ground to take advantage of his speed, Span should be considered a strong bet to be an asset in batting average. You'll need to find your power elsewhere, but Span makes for a respectable option to round out fantasy outfields.

Recommendation: Should be owned universally in five-outfielder formats, and should be owned in most three-outfielder leagues.

Kelvin Herrera| Kansas City Royals| RP| ESPN: 0 percent ownership, Yahoo!: 0 percent ownership
YTD: 4.05 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 1.35 BB/9, 8.10 K/9, 55.0 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 4.19 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9

After years of battling injuries, Herrera made the full-time switch from starting pitcher to reliever and flourished last season. He started the year in High-A, and finished it with two September relief appearances for the Royals, and has since made the team's bullpen out of spring training for this year. He hasn't been used in high leverage late inning situations yet, but he has the repertoire necessary to project in that role in the future. Bullpens are volatile, and Greg Holland and Jonathan Broxton, the team's top late-inning options, can attest to that.

Holland has yet to find the form he displayed in 2011, and Broxton is coming off a shortened 2011 season which saw him undergo surgery in September to take care of a bone spur and loose bodies in his pitching elbow. Broxton's fastball velocity is back to where it was prior to surgery, and he has been mostly good, save for one disastrous appearance on April 11.

It will take more than a few appearances to prove he's completely back, and a safe ninth inning option for the entire season. It's also possible that if he's sharp, the Royals could look to deal him to a contender at the trade deadline. In short, Mariano Rivera isn't closing games for the Royals, and it's not out of the question that Herrera could move up the bullpen hierarchy as the season progresses.

For now, Herrera has a chance to be a source of strikeouts and a ratio helper. Herrera uses a blazing four-seam fastball,which averages 97.5 mph, according to his Brooks Baseball player card, and a wicked change-up to attack hitters. I watched his most recent relief appearance, and came away very impressed. As enjoyable as it is watching a reliever light up the radar gun for triple digits, something Herrera can do, I was more impressed with his change-up, which appeared to have some drop on it. Herrera's value is limited to leagues that count holds—I play in two and own him in one—and large AL-only leagues for now, but could expand. Keep his name filed away in your memory in the event Holland's struggles continue and Broxton finds himself out of the Royals closer picture.

Recommendation: Should be monitored in large mixed leagues and AL-only leagues. Should be owned in some leagues that count holds.

Garrett Richards| Los Angeles Angels| SP| ESPN: 0.1 percent ownership, Yahoo!: 0 percent ownership
YTD: 2.14 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 1.71 BB/9, 9.00 K/9 (Triple-A)
Oliver ROS: 4.87 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9

Richards was in a fifth starter battle in the spring with Jerome Williams. He pitched well, but ended up in Salt Lake City anyway. Williams, who began the year on a rehab assignment in the minors, was roughed up by the Yankees after being activated from the disabled list. He doesn't have any options remaining, and for that reason, the Angels may give him a few more turns in the rotation to prove he can stick. That said, owner Arte Moreno spent a bunch of cash in the offseason, and expectations are high for the Angels. They have come out of the gate sputtering, and one option to spark the team could be to move Richards into the rotation as the fifth starter.

He has been superb in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League in three starts. He has completed 21 innings, striking out 21 batters, walking just four, and inducing groundballs at a healthy rate (1.56 groundball out-to-flyball out ratio according to his MiLB player page). He struggled in his first taste of the majors in 2011, but should be given at least a partial pass because of the small sample size and his prospect pedigree. Baseball America rated him the Angels' third best prospect in its 2012 Baseball America Prospect Handbook, and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranked him as the Angels' seventh best prospect in his Future Shock: Angels Top 11 Prospects.

The biggest knock on Richards is that his secondary pitches lag behind his mid-to-high-90s fastball. Of his two secondary pitches, change-up and slider, the slider rates best, and has the potential to become a strikeout weapon. I've yet to read how those two pitches looked in his first three starts for Salt Lake, but his strikeout rate is up significantly from his 6.5 K/9 mark in 22 games for Double-A Arkansas in 2011. If the bump is a result of advancements made to one, or both, of his secondary pitches, he could be ready to contribute to the Angels and fantasy rosters.

Even the best young pitchers require an adjustment period to major league hitters, and Richards probably won't be an exception. With that caveat in mind, Richards has the benefit of playing in the same division as the Oakland A's and Seattle Mariners, making him a possible match-up play upon promotion. We're not talking about a Matt Moore type prospect here, but Richards is good enough to merit attention in large mixed leagues and AL-only formats.

Recommendation: Should be monitored in large mixed leagues, and owned in fiercely competitive AL-only leagues where bench space is available.

Tom Wilhelmsen| Seattle Mariners| RP| ESPN: 0.2 percent ownership, Yahoo!: 5 percent ownership
YTD: 0.90 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 2.70 BB/9, 10.80 K/9, 37.5 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 4.51 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9, 6.3 K/9

Wilhelmsen has an unusual baseball story, something I discussed here, and here, and will refrain from rehashing. The short of it is that he was suspended in 2004 while a member of the Brewers organization, and walked away from the game at that point. He returned to Independent League ball in 2009, and became a member of the Mariners organization in 2010. He reached the majors last season, and made 25 relief appearances for the Mariners. He missed bats then, and has since settled into the primary setup role for the team.

He has been outstanding this season, striking batters out while refraining from issuing free passes. He has a fly ball heavy approach, but his home ballpark, Safeco Field, should help limit the potential home run damage. He is mostly using a fastball and curveball mix to retire opposing hitters. He has also shown a change-up on occasion, and that pitch has been very effective for him in limited doses this season. All his offerings are capable of generating empty swings, and Wilhelmsen should be expected to continue to strike out better than a batter per inning. He's already an option in large mixed leagues where non-closer relievers are owned, and he's the most likely successor to Brandon League for Mariners closing duties should League be dealt to a contender at the deadline.

Recommendation: Should be owned in large mixed leagues where non-closer relievers have value, and should be owned in all AL-only formats.

Brad Peacock| Oakland A's| SP| ESPN: 0.2 percent ownership, Yahoo!: 1 percent Yahoo! ownership
YTD: 1.42 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 2.84 BB/9, 8.05 K/9 (Triple-A)
Oliver ROS: 4.57 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9

Peacock had a rough spring training, and because of that, failed to crack the A's rotation as the team broke camp. He has pitched very well in three starts for Triple-A Sacramento. Sacramento plays in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but that hasn't prevented Peacock from going at least six innings in any of his starts. His walk rate is much better in his second go-round at the Triple-A level, and could portend improved control in his next turn in the bigs.

He's continuing to strike batters out often, but he gets most of his outs on balls in play through the air, something that could lead to home run problems in the majors. Playing his home games in a pitcher-friendly park will help, but expect some hiccups initially. There aren't any openings in Oakland's rotation currently, but the A's are rebuilding and may wish to have Peacock learn on the fly soon enough.

Peacock's ability to strike batters out, and his friendly home digs, make him an intriguing fantasy option as soon as he gets a chance to face big league batters again. I expect Peacock to force his way into the A's rotation before the All-Star break. Just when may come down to how well the current members of the A's rotation pitch.

Recommendation: Should be owned in some large mixed leagues, and should be owned in most AL-only formats.

Jarrod Parker| Oakland A's| SP| ESPN: 0 percent ownership, Yahoo!: 2 percent ownership
YTD: 2.50 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.00 BB/9, 8.50 K/9 (Triple-A)
Oliver ROS: 4.63 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9, 5.9 K/9

Like Peacock, Parker was in the hunt for a rotation spot when the A's broke camp. Also like Peacock, he didn't win a rotation spot and was sent down to Triple-A Sacramento. Parker has been nearly as impressive as Peacock, with the major difference being the number of batters who have reached by hit against Parker. Parker has a higher groundball percentage than Peacock, and groundballs have a higher batting average on balls put in play than non-home run flyballs, so it is possible that's where the difference lies.

The higher batting average on groundballs is a worthwhile tradeoff for inducing them instead of allowing flyballs, because the latter do more damage than the former (something Jeff Sackman Carlos Gomez a little over two years ago">succinctly pointed out in an article about Carlos Gomez a little over two years ago).

Parker was coming off Tommy John surgery last year, and while the season was a success and resulted in a start for the Diamondbacks in September, it also saw his strikeout rate drop below his pre-surgery level. Prospect guru John Sickels noted in a Prospect of the Day article last September that Parker was throwing his plus slider less often than before his surgery. That helps explain the dip in strikeouts, and the fact that he mentioned Parker regained most of his pre-surgery "stuff" is encouraging for improved future performance.

Parker is off to a good start for Sacramento, and could be racing Peacock for a promotion. Because he has less experience pitching in Triple-A, I believe he'll be left there to season a bit longer than Peacock. The gap isn't large enough to completely rule out the possibility of him beating Peacock to the show, though, and it possible both could get back to the majors at roughly the same time. Parker's immediate upside is comparable to Peacock's, and his long term upside is slightly greater. Keep tabs on how the A's starters are pitching and how Parker is pitching in Sacramento, and don't hesitate to grab him in large mixed leagues or AL-only formats when it looks like he may be nearing a promotion.

Recommendation: Should be monitored in large mixed leagues and AL-only formats.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Josh Shepardson 2012-04-20T09:18:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/al-waiver-wire-week-1/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/al-waiver-wire-week-1/#When:06:06:15 Brett Anderson| Oakland A's| SP| 0.1 percent ESPN ownership, 4 percent Yahoo! ownership
YTD: 60-day DL
Oliver ROS: 3.69 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9, 6.6 K/9

Anderson is a forgotten man in many leagues, it would appear. He shouldn't be. When he is healthy he pounds the strike zone and piles up worm burners. He calls a pitcher's paradise home, and the lone knock against him is a below league average strikeout rate. He was primarily a fastball/slider pitcher prior to his injury, using his four-seam fastball, sinker, and slider 86 percent of the time in 2011 according to his Brooks Baseball player card. He'll occasionally mix in a change-up or curveball when he's not leaning on his bread and butter fastball/slider combo.

The reason Anderson is available in so many leagues is that he is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery he underwent last July. Will Carroll discussed Anderson a bit in his March 20, Under The Knife. Carroll speculated that Anderson could be ready to return by May or June. That would be less than a year after undergoing surgery, and would delight fantasy owners.

Reports of his rehab are positive of late. He threw a Bob Melvin, mixing all of his pitches.">45-pitch bullpen session for A's manager Bob Melvin, mixing all of his pitches. The next step will be live batting practice. The time is now to add and stash Anderson. As he gets closer to returning to the majors, the competition for securing his services will increase. He may have some struggles in the early going, as every pitchers recovery is different from Tommy John surgery, but he may not. This is a rare low risk, high reward gamble.

Recommendation: Should be stashed on the DL in leagues of all sizes and scoring types.

Glen Perkins| Minnesota Twins| RP| 0.4 percent ESPN ownership, 4 percent Yahoo! ownership
YTD: 0.00 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 0.00 BB/9, 14.73 K/9, 50.0 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 4.19 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, 6.9 K/9

One bad appearance from Matt Capps, a game he actually successfully saved on Thursday, isn't reason to depose him from his closer role. That said, he is following up an ugly 2011 and may not have the longest of leashes. Perkins emerged as a dynamic setup man after years of serving as a starter. His conversion to the bullpen began in 2010. He spent most of that season starting for Triple-A Rochester, but ended up appearing in 12 of 13 games as a reliever for the Twins. His results in the pen that year didn't even begin to foreshadow his breakout in 2011.

His strikeout rate skyrocketed to better than a batter per-inning, and he continued to coax ground balls roughly half the time the ball was put in play. The most likely reason he was able to strike more batters out in the pen than as a starter was improved stuff, and dramatically improved stuff at that. His four-seam fastball averaged 90.49 MPH, and his sinker averaged 89.3 mph, in 2009 as a full-time starting pitcher. Both fastballs failed to miss bats, and none of his secondary pitches generated empty swings at an above average rate.

In 2011, his first year as a full-time reliever, his four-seam fastball average velocity spiked to 95.61 mph while his sinker average velocity jumped to 94.11. Those gains paid huge dividends. He got many more empty swings with his now mid-90s fastballs, and his slider also became a swing-and-miss weapon.

Perkins is a southpaw, and the first thought of many is probably that he has a noticeable platoon split when facing right-handed pitching. However, that isn't the case. Perkins actually exhibited a reverse platoon split last year, dominating right-handed batters, 11.36 K/9 and 2.57 xFIP, while merely successfully retiring left-handed batters, 6.92 K/9 and 3.41 xFIP. Should Capps cough up the closer role, look for Perkins to take over and do just fine.

Recommendation: Should be owned in large mixed-leagues where non-closing relievers have value, and should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Danny Duffy| Kansas City Royals| SP| 1.4 percent ESPN ownership, 6 percent Yahoo! ownership
YTD: 0.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9, 12.0 K/9, 33.3 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 5.02 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9

Duffy's first start of the year against the A's, in very wet conditions, was impressive. I was fortunate enough to be home for the game, watched the vast majority of the pitches he threw that night, and came away impressed. His fastball was routinely hitting 94-96 mph, and he leaned on it heavily. This should come as no surprise, as Harry Pavlidis took an in depth look at Duffy's PITCHf/x data from last year for a March 16 Dispatch post, and noted that he used his premium velocity heater often.

What did surprise me was how effective his secondary pitchers were. He used a curveball that he froze hitters with in the zone, and was able to get them to chase out of the zone on occasion. His change-up was also quite good, earning one called strike, and three swinging strikes on eight change-ups thrown.

His play against the A's showcased why Duffy has an intriguing arm. He struck out eight batters in six innings, and could be a good source of Ks if he isn't undone by poor control. His poor control was also on display in that start, as he walked four batters and started with more 1-0 counts than 0-1 counts (he threw a first pitch strike just 47.6 percent of the time).

There is some risk in starting him until he strings together a few solid starts, but there is little risk in stashing him on benches and watching how he does. Not everyone has the luxury of stashing him, and those owners would be wise to add him to their watch list and keep tabs on how he does from a distance. This southpaw has proven he can dominate in the minors, and it's only a matter of time before he becomes a reliable starter in the majors.

Recommendation: Should be owned in some large mixed-leagues as well as most AL-only leagues.

Jake Arrieta| Baltimore Orioles| SP| 8.7 percent ESPN ownership, 14.0 percent Yahoo! ownership
YTD: 2.63 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 1.98 BB/9, 5.93 K/9, 35.1 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 5.01 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9, 6.4 K/9

It wasn't that long ago that Arrieta was one of a handful of prospect pitchers in the Orioles organization who were supposed to help lift them out of the American League East basement. Unfortunately for the O's, things didn't come to fruition. Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz have struggled mightily, and Arrieta hasn't been much better.

Last August, Arrieta underwent surgery to remove a bone spur, ending a season in which he was not much better than a replacement level pitcher. This year, manager Buck Showalter tabbed him the Opening Day starter. He took the ball on April 6, at Camden Yards, and was sharp against the Twins. He pitched seven scoreless innings allowing two hits and two walks while striking out four and inducing more groundballs, eight, than flyballs, six. His second start was a greater challenge, facing the Yankees at Camden Yards. The results weren't as good, but were promising nonetheless.

Historically, Arrieta has struggled with his control. His walk rate in 233.1 innings in the majors is 4.24 BB/9, and he hasn't struck out enough batters, 5.94 K/9, to offset his below average control. While it is early, his control has been pristine. His strikeout rate remains low, but there are reasons to think that can improve. In 2009-2010 he had no problem piling up strikeouts at the High-A and Double-A levels. His rate dropped significantly in Triple-A, but remained acceptable in the mid-to-high-7 K/9 range.

Perhaps more important than his past minor league performance is a notable change in the present. His four-seam fastball velocity is up a tick. As we know, thanks to the hard work of Matt Swartz, more velocity is, well, a good thing.

Pitching in the American League East is a challenge. With that in mind, it is probably best to exercise caution with Arrieta. For now, he looks like a solid stream/matchup play in large mixed leagues, and rosterable in AL-only leagues. If he's able to sustain his gain in velocity and control, he should find himself on more mixed-league rosters.

Recommendation: Should be owned in some large mixed-leagues as well as most AL-only leagues.

Addison Reed| Chicago White Sox| RP| 1.9 percent ESPN ownership, 16.0 percent Yahoo! ownership
YTD: 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, 0.00 BB/9, 3.86 K/9, 14.3 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 3.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, 9.3 K/9

First-time manager Robin Ventura shocked many when he named Hector Santiago the White Sox closer. Coming into spring training, most speculated that the competition was limited to Matt Thornton, Jesse Crain, and Reed. None of the candidates pitched poorly, but Santiago seized the opportunity, and won over Ventura.

Santiago has been a non-prospect for the bulk of his minor league career, but became a modest prospect (he ranked as the White Sox' 11th-best prospect in the 2012 Baseball America Prospect Handbook) after adding a screwball to his repertoire in the 2010 Puerto Rican Winter League. All of his minor league appearances came as a starter in 2011, but he made two relief appearances for the White Sox in July. His underwhelming minor league career, his ho-hum prospect ranking in what is widely considered the worst farm system in baseball, and the presence of a superior prospect with more minor league success makes me skeptical Santiago will retain the job all year.

Who is the superior prospect nipping at his heels? That would be Reed, who most reputable outlets ranked as the White Sox top prospect coming into the season. All he did last year was dominate at four levels of the minors last year, and reach the majors for a September cup of coffee. Though he appeared in only six games last year for the Pale Hose, he showed off the goods that make him the team's long term answer at closer. He sported a robust 14.73 K/9 in seven and one-third innings pitched, devastating hitters with three swing-and-miss offerings. He threw a four-seam fastball that averaged 95.60 mph, a low-80s slider, and sprinkled in a mid-80s change-up.

Scouting reports gush about his fastball and slider, and both are consider plus pitches. He doesn't throw his change-up as often as the other two pitches, but it is at least an average offering to keep hitters off balance. I'd be shocked if he didn't snatch the closer gig away from Santiago by the early summer. In the interim, he is worth owning to help in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. The saves will come.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues.

Greg Holland| Kansas City Royals| RP| 1.8 percent ESPN ownership, 32.0 percent Yahoo! ownership
YTD: 4.91 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 2.45 BB/9, 12.27 K/9, 60.0 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 3.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9, 9.7 K/9

Like Reed, Holland was in a competition for the closer gig in the spring. Unlike Reed, the closer opening was the result of an injury, in this case, to former All-Star closer Joakim Soria. The Royals opted to turn to a reliever with previous closing experience, Jonathan Broxton.

Broxton was mostly lights-out as the Dodgers closer in 2008-2010. Prior to that, he was filthy in a setup role for the Dodgers in 2006-2007. He overpowered hitters with a fastball that routinely hit the upper-90s, and sat regularly in the mid-90s. The wheels fell off in 2011, and the reason for his struggles was a bone spur and bone chips that required surgery. He signed with the Royals as a free agent in the offseason, and showed off a fastball in the spring that resembled his pre-injury version.

He has made three appearances for the Royals thus far this year. The first two were clean appearance, but his most recent was far from. He fell apart, blowing a one run lead in the 12th inning in truly epic fashion. He started off the save opportunity with a strikeout, but it was all downhill after that. The next batter reached by error, and Broxton followed that up with consecutive walks. He recorded a ground out next, but the out resulted in the tying run scoring. What happened next was nearly unthinkable. He plunked consecutive batters, forcing home the winning run. It's possible the ugly appearance is nothing more than a blip on the radar for Broxton, though, it probably shortens his leash substantially.

Holland was electric in a setup role last year. He's already ownable in large mixed-leagues thanks to his stellar contributions in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. He, like Broxton, has a bad relief appearance under his belt. Holland's came in the Royals' opener, but wasn't nearly as ugly as Broxton's. A few well-placed hits did Holland in during that outing, and he has since responded with two scoreless appearances, one of which was of the two-inning variety.

The closing situation could be fluid in Kansas City, and Holland has had the most recent success. Because of that, it likely won't take much for him to unseat Broxton. In competitive leagues, saves are always at a premium. Avoid the hassle of racing to a computer to add Holland should Broxton falter in the near future. Add him now, and wait for Broxton to implode once again.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues, and snatched up immediately in those leagues should he end up closing.

Luke Hochevar| Kansas City Royals| SP| 3.2 percent ESPN ownership, 18.0 percent Yahoo! ownership
YTD: 2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.84 BB/9, 5.68 K/9, 23.5 percent GB
Oliver ROS: 4.56 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, 6.1 K/9

My man crush on Hochevar is well documented. I first discussed why I buy into Hochevar's strong finish after last year's All-Star break at Fantasy Baseball 365 in November. I have since expanded on why I'm so crazy about Hochevar for Fantasy Pros. If you look at his player card at Fantasy Pros, you'll notice that I ranked him as the 41st best fantasy starting pitcher for 2012. That ranking is the highest of any expert, but I'm not the only one here at The Hardball Times who believes in Hochevar more than the masses. You'll see that both Nick Fleder and Ben Pritchett ranked him higher than the expert consensus.

As opposed to rehashing what I've already discussed in depth previously, I'll suggest checking out the links above. In short, Hochevar changed his repertoire dramatically, and his strikeout rate saw a bump because of it. He already was capable of besting the league average in walk rate while getting hitters to pound the ball into the ground at a high clip. The missing piece of the puzzle was striking batters out, and now that he is using his slider and cutter to do so, expect him to continue his breakout that began in July last year. This isn't the same pitcher of years past. This is a pitcher who should be rostered nearly universally.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues.

Michael Taylor| Oakland A's| OF| 0 percent ESPN ownership, 0 percent Yahoo! ownership
YTD: Minors
Oliver ROS: .244/.313/.376

It's going to be difficult for Taylor to crack the A's outfield, but he's doing everything in his power to. He's swinging a hot stick in Sacramento. In 37 plate appearances he is slashing .429/.462/.686. He has clubbed six doubles and one home run. He also hasn't sold out for power, having struck out in just 10.8 percent of his plate appearances. He has long been considered a threat to hit for power and steal bases, and he has repeatedly come up short of lofty expectations. Perhaps the light bulb has come on. It may take a change of scenery to find that out though.

The old saying goes that a player is playing for all 30 clubs. While the A's may not have a use for him, another team may decide he is worth trading for. It's not hard to envision Taylor being dealt sincer he's already been dealt from the Phillies to the Blue Jays, and then from the Blue Jays to the A's in his young career. It's not necessary to add Taylor at the moment, but he warrants keeping tabs on. Forward thinking managers in large mixed-leagues and AL-only leagues should check in on Taylor, and keep abreast of any possible trade rumors that crop up.

Recommendation: Should be on watch lists in large mixed-leagues and AL-only leagues.

Travis Snider| Toronto Blue Jays| OF| 0 percent ESPN ownership, 1 percent Yahoo! ownership
YTD: Minors
Oliver ROS: .251/.308/.421

Speaking of prospects who have failed to live up to expectations, it is that time of year that I recommend keeping an eye on Snider. Snider lost out on the left-field competition in spring training to Eric Thames. Thames has since scuffled in the early going. In fact, the entire Blue Jays outfield has struggled.

Jose Bautista isn't going anywhere, and one would have to assume the Blue Jays won't be quick to pull the plug on Colby Rasmus in center field. That leaves open the possibility of them injecting some life into the outfield by swapping Snider in for Thames.

Of course, making that change would require promoting Snider from Triple-A. As expected, Snider is showing he has little to learn in the minors. In 29 plate appearances he is hitting a blistering .370/.414/.704 with two home runs and just five strikeouts. Strikeouts have been a big source of Snider's struggles in the majors, but his current 18.5 percent strikeout rate with Las Vegas is excellent for a slugger.

Can he maintain his improvement in the bigs? There is only one way to find out.

While it seems like Snider has been around forever, he is only 24 years old, and played all of last year at 23. If gamers need a reminder of a player breaking out of prospect bust status in recent years, look no further than Alex Gordon and Cameron Maybin last year. Both had lofty expectations, like Snider, and were jerked around. In the case of Gordon, injuries may have also been a factor in his slow ascent to blue chip fantasy asset status. With Maybin, it was a case of being in a vicious cycle of being called up and then sent down repeatedly. Sounds pretty similar to the handling of Snider to me.

If Snider is given the chance to sink or swim for an extended period of time in Toronto, he has a chance to be a source of plentiful home run contributions. Add him to watch lists now, and if you are in need of power in large mixed-leagues or AL-only formats, feel free to add him upon promotion.

Recommendation: Should be on watch lists in large mixed-leagues and AL-only leagues.

Ryan Lavarnway| Boston Red Sox| C| 0.1 percent ESPN ownership, 0 percent Yahoo! ownership
YTD: Minors
Oliver ROS: .259/.335/.475

All you need to know about my feelings on Lavarnway's fantasy potential can be found in his prospect write-up as part of my Top-100 fantasy prospect list. His bats ready, and he hit in spring training. He isn't currently crushing the ball in Triple-A, but he is using his discerning eye to work walks and reach base at a high rate.

The Red Sox are struggling, and one position that has been an eyesore in particular has been catcher. Starting catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia is striking out often, which is the norm, but has only one hit in 13 at-bats. Backup catcher Kelly Shoppach hasn't been much better with one hit in seven at-bats.

If manager Bobby Valentine gets sick of having a free out in his lineup, he may turn to Lavarnway and tolerate his defensive deficiencies. Lavarnway has enough batting prowess that he could become relevant in one catcher leagues later in the season. Owners in two catcher leagues, where the dregs of the position are rostered, would be wise to take the plunge and stash Lavarnway now in anticipation of his eventual promotion.

Recommendation: Should be stashed on benches in large-mixed leagues that use two catchers. Should also be stashed in AL-only leagues.

Dayan Viciedo| Chicago White Sox| OF| 1.0 percent ESPN ownership, 12 percent Yahoo! ownership
YTD: .267/.313/.400
Oliver ROS: .267/.315/.435

The portly Cuban is getting his first opportunity to hold down a regular starting job for the White Sox. While he'll never get rave reviews for his defense, it's the bat that brings home the bacon in fantasy land anyways. Viciedo has plus power, and is a threat to hit 25 plus home runs annually. Last year in the Triple-A International League he hit 20 home runs in 505 plate appearances. It was his second straight season of hitting 20 home runs in the International League. His greatest gains came in controlling the strike zone and making contact.

Viciedo had a paltry three percent walk rate in 2010 in Triple-A. In 2011 he nearly tripled that rate walking in just under nine percent of his plate appearances. He simultaneously reduced his strikeout rate reducing it from 21.5 percent in 2010 to 16.4 percent in 2011. His new found patience lead to hope that he can be more than a one dimensional slugger. In 16 plate appearances this year he has struck out twice. He has walked only one time, but is showing enough that I feel comfortable penciling him in for an average north of .270.

The next step is ramping up the power production. Since his power has never come into question, expecting 20 plus home runs this year, with the potential for more, is fair. With home run power at a premium, it's hard to believe Viciedo is so readily available. If he's available in your league, you should scoop him up.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues.

Alejandro De Aza| Chicago White Sox| OF| 9.7 percent ESPN ownership, 46.0 percent Yahoo! ownership
YTD: .273/.273/.591
Oliver ROS: .269/.325/.412

De Aza is the most owned player Yahoo! leagues featured this week. I'm not as bullish on De Aza as others, but recognize he is a threat to reach double digits in home runs while also stealing 25-30 bases. He has been a bit old while hitting .300 or better in Triple-A, and the fact he hasn't gotten a full-time look until now makes me question why that is. Regardless, he's starting for the White Sox, and will now have an opportunity to prove he's more than an older player taking advantage of minor league pitching.

His strikeout rate is a bit high for a none power threat. Don't be fooled by his two home runs on the season—he is more of a 12-15 home run threat than a threat to challenge 20 taters. He made up for his strikeout rate last year in his 171 plate appearance trial by walking at an above league average rate.

When on base, he is a threat to use his wheels to steal a bag. His biggest problem is that he has been inefficient. Because it is Ventura's first year as a manager, it is unclear what his tolerance level will be for base runners getting caught stealing, and how often he'll send runners as well. Just know this: De Aza is fast, and with stolen base chances, he'll swipe some.

His power and speed combination is great enough that he should be owned nearly universally. Don't expect him to post a batting average of .300 or better like he has each of the last three seasons in Triple-A, but he won't need to if he provides in home runs and stolen bases like I've suggested he will above.

Recommendation: He should be owned in all but shallow leagues.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Josh Shepardson 2012-04-13T06:06:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-100-fantasy-baseball-prospects-part-4-76-100/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-100-fantasy-baseball-prospects-part-4-76-100/#When:08:14:15 Will Middlebrooks/3B/Boston Red Sox/9-9-88/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Breakout 2011. Peak .250/.300/.429 with some power.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Middlebrooks played in the Arizona Fall League (AFL), where he continued his tendency to be impatient. His strikeout rate was quite high, 31.7 percent, in 60 plate appearances. He was also invited to spring training, and received 20 at-bats, in which he walked zero times, and struck out eight times.

Small samples or not, his play in the AFL and spring training illustrate he needs to cut back on striking out, and learn to work walks at a better rate. This isn't anything new for Middlebrooks, but at some point, projection of him reducing his strikeouts and becoming more patient need to become reality, or his fantasy value will be limited.

He will begin the season in Triple-A, and being that Kevin Youkilis hasn't been a stranger to the disabled list in recent years, could see time in the majors. The Red Sox own a $13 million club option with a $1 million buyout for Youkilis in 2013, which leaves open the possibility that Middlebrooks could be the club's starting third baseman as soon as next year.

October 2011: Projected to be more of a doubles hitter than a big bopper, but does have useful home run power potential. Middlebrooks has the defensive tools necessary to stay at the hot corner, which is big because his value won't translate well to other positions. His poor walk rate and high strikeout rate leave me questioning his batting average ceiling. He should be awarded the opportunity to further hone his strike zone command and hitting in Triple-A next year, and probably see a cup of coffee in September when rosters expand if he continues to play well. He doesn't have an elite ceiling, but as a third baseman succeeding in the upper minors, his floor is relatively high at a shallow offensive position.

77: A.J. Cole/SP/Oakland A's/1-5-92/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Awesome strikeout rate and walk rate in the low minors this year project to translate to the majors by about 2016.
Scouting notes: March 2012: The Nationals sent Cole packing, with others, to acquire Gio Gonzalez from the Oakland A's. He moves to the more offensive friendly American League, but also moves to a more favorable home ballpark for pitching. He pitched all 2011 in Low-A, and will likely begin the 2012 season pitching in High-A for Stockton.

October 2011: Cole throws a plus fastball with good velocity and projection for even more as he matures. His curveball and change-up lag behind the heater, but the curveball has plus potential and his change-up is in the development stages. His control is very impressive for a tall (6-foot-4) 19-year-old who pitched in full season ball. That solid control hasn't come at the expense of strikeouts— his 10.92 K/9 is superb. He was a 2010 draft selection out of high school, but may move fast for a prep pitcher; he took well to Single-A this year. Even if he spends a full season in both Double-A and Triple-A, he'd reach the majors as a 22-year-old.

78: Jonathan Schoop/2B-SS-3B/Baltimore Orioles/10-6-91/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Projects for playable power, low-to-mid teens home run totals, for a middle infielder. That won't play if he is a third baseman, though, as he doesn't make up for it with a standout average or speed.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Schoop has shared the infield with seventh-ranked prospect Manny Machado. He has played both second base and third base next to Machado, and filled in for him at shortstop when he was hurt. It isn't clear what his defensive home will be in the long run, but Will Lingo of Baseball America believes it to be third base. John Sickels of Minor League Ball believes he'll end up at second base.

Schoop enjoyed a breakout last year, and at just 20 years of age, already shows solid command of the strike zone having struck out in only 13.4 percent of his plate appearances last year and walking in 7.4 percent of them. He's not a threat to steal bases, but he projects to hit for a solid batting average and offer at least average home run power in his peak years. Most reports suggest Schoop and Machado will open the season as teammates, which means a trip back to High-A Frederick is likely. It is possible they could both open in Double-A though.

79: Francisco Lindor/SS/Cleveland Indians/11-14-93/ETA: 2016
Forecast notes: No projection as a 2011 high school draftee
Scouting notes: March 2012: He doesn't have any offensive tools that will blow fantasy gamers away, but he does project to hit for a good batting average. Lindor is a solid base runner with above average speed, and could also contribute stealing bases. He isn't a slugger, but could develop enough power to hit teen home run totals annually. If he does all of the above, he'll be a fantasy asset at a position, shortstop, noted for defense. He should open 2012 in Low-A.

October 2011: Lindor is a pure shortstop who is a wizard with the glove and won't require a position change. His defense gets better grades than his offense, but he's expected to hit for average. His power potential gets mixed reviews that range from gap at best to better than that. His speed isn't a plus, but it is above average and should allow him to steal some bases. The offensive ceiling isn't overwhelming, but a shortstop capable of hitting for a bit of pop, stealing a pinch of bases and hitting for average plays well in fantasy formats.

80: Jake Odorizzi/SP/Kansas City/3-27-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: His MLE walk and strikeout rates took a step forward while his ERA and WHIP took a step back.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Odorizzi was invited to Royals camp this spring, and pitched in two games totaling four innings. The results weren't particularly notable, and do nothing to harm nor help his prospect stock. He'll open the year repeating Double-A, and could reach Triple-A in short order. It is possible he'll have a shot at reaching the majors this year.

October 2011: Odorizzi's numbers were tremendous in High-A, but took a huge step back against advanced competition in Double-A, where his strikeout rate plummeted from 11.83 K/9 to 7.08 K/9. His walk rate remained very good, below 3.0 BB/9, but his extreme flyball profile has the potential to be crippling to his fantasy value. Kevin Goldstein noted improvement this year at the midway mark, but Keith Law suggested otherwise at the same point. Baseball America described his fastball as his lone plus pitch coming into the season. It has good, but not elite, velocity.

I haven't read any scouting reports discussing how he's using his fastball, but given his batted ball tendency and high strikeout rate in High-A that dipped in Double-A, I'm guessing he's throwing it up in the zone. That approach would leave less advanced hitters swinging through it and more talented competition catching up to it and punishing it. Perhaps the vibe I'm getting is unwarranted, but Odorizzi has a Chris Tillman feel to me. Most prospect rankings have him higher, but his present stuff and projection don't offer a high enough ceiling to ignore his struggles in Double-A.

81: Zach Lee/SP/Los Angeles Dodgers/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Underwhelming MLE on his pro debut.
Scouting notes: March 2012. Lee was in Dodgers spring training camp, and threw a perfect inning, striking out one. He'll look to follow up on his solid debut in Low-A, and should open the year in High-A with a chance to reach Double-A before season's end.

October 2011: Lee was a two-sport prep superstar with a scholarship offer to play football for LSU. The Dodgers surprised most by selecting him last year and meeting his bonus requirement, spreading it over five years. His strikeout rate of 7.51 K/9 and walk rate of 2.64 BB/9 are impressive for a 19-year-old (he turned 20 on Sept. 13) debuting in Single-A, and even more impressive when realizing he didn't concentrate on baseball exclusively in high school. As you'd expect of a player recruited to play football at an elite college program, he's a great athlete and has a ton of projection. Scouting reports are better than his solid results.

82: Chad Bettis/SP/Colorado Rockies/4-26-89/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Projects as a bit of an innings-eater type with solid control but underwhelming strikeout totals.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Bettis didn't pitch in any offseason leagues, but was a non-roster invite to Rockies camp, and threw in two spring training games. He'll open the year in Double-A continuing to refine his secondary pitches. The Rockies' decision to develop him as a starter looks good thus far, but the high minors will prove a greater test. His plus fastball/slider combination give him a high floor of a potential closer should he falter along the way as a starter.

October 2011: Bettis' fastball is his best pitch, and is above average, but it's the gains that he has reportedly made with his secondary offerings that are most promising. He was outstanding in High-A and looks to tackle Double-A next year. He induced more flyball outs than groundball outs, and works well down in the zone. He'll need to continue that trend if he hopes to succeed at Coors, and before that in the launching pad that is Colorado Springs.

Stellar performance paired with positive scouting reports allows Bettis, who wasn't highly touted coming into the season by most outlets (Sickels seemed most bullish giving him a "B" grade), to land on this list.

83: Daniel Norris/SP/Toronto Blue Jays/4-25-93/ETA: 2016
Forecast notes: No projection as a 2011 high school draftee
Scouting notes: It's unclear where Norris will begin his minor league career, but the Blue Jays' tendency to start prep pitchers in short-season leagues means the Northwest League is a reasonable bet.

October 2011: Like fellow second-round pick Josh Bell, Norris fell due to signability concerns. The Blue Jays took a chance, and ended up netting him for $2 million. He's a skinny southpaw who throws between 89-92 mph regularly and can touch 96. He also throws a change-up that has plus potential and is his curveball also has plus potential. As he fills out, he should be able to show premium velocity on his fastball more regularly. Tantalizing blend of stuff, and most scouting reports say he has a feel for pitching and isn't simply a thrower.

84: Brandon Jacobs/OF/Boston Red Sox/12-8-90/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Breakout in 2012 leads to projections of mid-to-high teens home run power with a dash of speed as well.
Scouting notes: Jacobs was an above slot, $750,000 bonus, 10th-round selection in the 2009 amateur draft out of high school. He is a well built athlete who had a scholarship offer to play running back at Auburn. Upon signing, he played in eight rookie level Gulf Coast League games in 2009, and followed that up with a short-season New York-Penn League assignment in 2010.

His play in 2010 showed flashes of power and patience, but he took his game to another level in 2011 in Low-A. He increased his isolated slugging (ISO) from .169 in 2010 to .201 last year. Part of the reason for the increase in ISO was a jump in his home run rate. He hit just six home runs in 263 plate appearances in 2010, which equaled one home run per 43.8 plate appearances. In 2011 he hit 17 home runs in 502 plate appearances, or one home run per 29.5 plate appearances. He projects to hit for above average power by all of the major scouting outlets.

His strikeout level has been acceptable at each minor league stop for a player with developing pop. Jacobs' ability to his the ball hard to all fields and avoid striking out at a high rate bode well for his batting average. He may not continue to be a .300 hitter, but he should be an asset in the category nonetheless. He stole 30 bases at an efficient 81.1 percent rate last season, but he isn't a burner. He has average speed with good instincts meaning he'll likely see his stolen base totals drop against better competition, but he'll still have a chance to be a contributor.

The whole projects to be greater than the sum of its parts with Jacobs. He doesn't project to be a monster in any single category, but his ability to help across the board will make him appealing in fantasy. After spending the entire season in Low-A in 2011, he'll open 2012 in High-A.

85: Mason Williams/OF/New York Yankees/8-21-91/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes: Big year in the New York Penn-League resulted in an MLE slash line of .311/.338/.432.
Scouting notes: March 2012: The early returns are good on the Yankees' above slot fourth-round selection in the 2010 draft. Williams played in just five games after signing, and got his first extended taste of pro baseball last year playing in the short-season New York-Penn League. There, he hit a robust .349/.395/.468 in 298 plate appearances. He showed off his wheels legging out six triples and stealing 28 bases.

His efficiency needs work, as he was caught stealing 12 times leading to a success rate of just 70 percent. As he continues to work on the finer points of base stealing, he should be able to use his burner speed to be a big contributor in the stolen base category in fantasy games.

Williams makes a lot of contact, and projects to continue to hit for high averages as he moves up the ladder. He doesn't offer much pop, and his ceiling is average power, which would equate to low teens home run totals. He has the speed and hit tools to profile as a leadoff hitter, but he'll need to work on walking more often if he hopes to maximize his value there. He'll take his hacks in full season ball for the first time in 2012, starting the year in Low-A.

86: Bryce Brentz/OF/Boston Red Sox/12-30-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Breakout in 2011 leads to projections of mid-20s home run power.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Brentz saw time in three spring training games, receiving four at-bats in total. He's ready for Double-A, and there aren't many obstacles in his way to making a 2013 major league debut if he continues to slug the ball.

October 2011: His power is his best fantasy asset. Not everyone is sold that it will play as he moves up the ladder, but he took a huge step forward after a poor debut, so he gets the nod over other outfield prospects with plus power potential in the future, but lesser results now. He's going to have to cut back on the strikeouts, or advanced pitchers will pick him apart.

87: Mikie Mahtook/OF/Tampa Bay Rays/11-30-89/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Jack of all trades, master of none. Projects to hit for some power, steal some bags, and hit for a low, but passable, batting average.
Scouting notes: March 2012: The Rays held nine picks in the first round and supplemental first round combined. Mahtook was the second player selected in those nine picks, and went 31st overall. He played his college ball at Louisiana State, where he hit .383/.496/.709 in his last year, his junior year, in spite of college baseball's change to less potent bats.

Mahtook is a good athlete with above average power and speed. He partook in the AFL and showed off his entire offensive profile. He played in 18 games, receiving 78 plate appearances and hit .338/.410/.544 with a nine percent walk rate and a 20.5 percent strikeout rate. He hit three home runs, and added five stolen bases in six chances. He's very polished, and shouldn't need more than two seasons in the minors. He'll begin his affiliated ball career in High-A.

88: Tyrell Jenkins/SP/St. Louis Cardinals/7-20-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes: Too small a sample for useful MLE forecast.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Most outlets seem to think Jenkins will bypass short-season Batavia, and begin the year in Low-A pitching for Quad Cities. Jenkins remains a prospect worth dreaming on with a live arm and solid results, but he's still quite a ways away from reaching the bigs.

October 2011: He didn't make either Baseball America's or Kevin Goldstein's Midseason Top-50 Prospect lists, but he did crack Keith Law's. He was drafted in last year's supplemental first round out of high school. He played multiple sports in high school, and is described as a tremendous athlete. Because he didn't play baseball full-time in high school, he's a bit of a project, but one with the upside of three plus pitches (fastball, change-up and curve). He already throws hard, and throws strikes. His strikeout-to-walk rate is better than four-to-one. He gives up a lot of hits, which suggests he'll need to work on throwing more quality strikes. He's a high risk/high reward type prospect.

89: Dellin Betances/SP/New York Yankees/3-23-88/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Huge slip in walk rate from 2010 to 2011. His poor walk rate in 2011 falls in line with his career, with 2010 looking like the outlier.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Betances didn't pitch in any offseason leagues, but did see action in five spring training games totaling eight innings pitched. He didn't walk a batter in three of the five games, but walked two in one game, and three in the other. In all, he walked five batters in eight innings. He'll open the year in Triple-A, where he'll continue to work on ironing out his wonky control.

The Yankees added depth to their rotation in the offseason, so Betances' best shot at making an impact in the majors this year would be in a relief role. As it stands, he may be best suited in that role anyway; his fastball/curveball combo could make him a lethal option at the back of the bullpen.

October 2011: Betances offers the combination of electric stuff and a big physical build that allows scouts to dream of a workhorse fronting a major league rotation. Unfortunately, Betances has enough warts on his game that a shift to the bullpen may be necessary. One obstacle is his lack of a consistent change-up to use with his plus fastball and plus-plus curveball. (He also throws a slider which he'll use to strike hitters out.)

The other, larger, obstacle for Betances is his lack of control. In short, he walks too many hitters. One possible reason is his large frame. Often times, bigger pitchers struggle to repeat their delivery. Betances isn't overly athletic, further aiding the difficulties of repeating a delivery. Last year showed what Betances is capable of when he can keep the walks in line, and his relatively high floor as a high leverage reliever, and potential heir to Mariano Rivera's closing job, makes this a fair rating.

90: Jarred Cosart/SP/Houston Astros/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Strikeout rate and walk rate both took steps in the wrong direction, but had average MLEs in 2010 and better than average in 2009.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Cosart pitched in one spring training game for the Astros on March 25. He gave up seven hits, but struck out five in 3.1 innings. Putting much stock in spring training stats is a bit foolish, but it is good to see him miss bats regardless of the level of competition and circumstances.

Cosart has electric stuff, but his inconsistent secondary pitches have prevented him from using it to rack up strikeouts. After pitching in just seven games for Double-A Corpus Christi last year, he is expected to return there to open the 2012 season.

October 2011: Cosart impressed on the big stage in his Futures Game performance where his stuff played up in a small dose. He throws a plus fastball and curveball and induces a ton of ground balls. To take the next step, he'll need to start missing bats. He's not striking out nearly enough batters to be fantasy relevant. Further hurting his ranking are concerns Keith Law voiced about his delivery across his body in his Midseason Top-50 Prospect list.

91: Wily Peralta/SP/Milwaukee Brewers/5-8-89/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Got his MLE strikeout rate back to pre-2010 levels while reducing his walk rate. Projection still lackluster.
Scouting notes: March 2012: After throwing a career best 150.2 innings last year, Peralta didn't partake in any offseason leagues. He reported to Brewers camp this spring, pitching in three games before being reassigned to minor league camp. He'll open the year in Triple-A, and should be the first name called if the Brewers need a starter this season. If the rotation remains healthy and effective, Peralta could get his majjor league introduction via the bullpen this year.

October 2011: Peralta is a bit of an enigma. His strikeout and walk rates have been up and down throughout his minor league career, and his groundball rate has fluctuated as well. He throws three pitches with average to above-average grades, and he put it all together this season. His walk rate in Double-A could have been a smidge better (3.61 BB/9) but his strikeout rate was solid, and both have improved greatly in his promotion to Triple-A. Small sample warning applies, but his performance has been electric in the friendly hitting environment of the Pacific Coast League.

Scouting reports back up the statistical improvements, and Peralta's frame suggests he can develop into a workhorse. Most scouting reports mention his easy delivery, which is further reason to believe in him piling up innings at his peak maturity. He appears to be close to maxing out his potential, but the package looks useful in fantasy and he is knocking on the door of the bigs.

92: Enny Romero/SP/Tampa Bay Rays/1-24-91/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes: Huge spike in strikeouts... but a huge spike in walks as well.
Scouting notes: March 2012: The Rays have a southpaw who throws with plus velocity, strikes batters out, and has control issues. Does that sound familiar? Projecting Romero to make the same leap fellow southpaw Matt Moore made would be more than a little ambitious. That said, the Rays have handled young pitching very well, and Romero has a nice foundation of goods and performance for them to work with.

In his first year pitching in a full-season league, he blew hitters away with 11.05 K/9. As I alluded to above, his control was poor, and it resulted in a 5.37 BB/9. When hitters did put the ball in play, it resulted in a groundout-to-flyout rate of 1.40.

He effortlessly pumps out fastballs that sit in the 92-97 mph range. He'll show an above average curveball at times, but its lack of consistency makes it a below average offering currently. He gained feel for his change-up in 2011, but like his curveball, it lacks consistency. If he's unable to rely on his secondary pitches regularly, a move to the bullpen could be in order. For now, he'll move up from Low-A to High-A this year and continue his development as a starter.

93: Jesse Biddle/SP/Philadelphia Phillies/10-22-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Ugly walk rates lead to a high WHIP projection and bloated ERAs.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Biddle finished his 2011 campaign in Low-A strong. He'll look to carry that over to High-A to start 2012.

October 2011: Biddle got off to a rough start, but has been much better after April. He's a big southpaw with plus, but inconsistent, velocity on his fastball. He also throws a developing change-up and curveball that flash swing and miss potential. The biggest hurdle for him to reach his ceiling is commanding his fastball. That's certainly not a small hurdle. He'll also have to continue to develop his secondary offerings, but the ceiling is high if everything comes together, and at just 19, he has plenty of time to hone his craft.

94: Justin Nicolinio/SP/Toronto Blue Jays/11-22-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Oliver projects Nicolino get his K/9 in the upper sevens with a sub-three BB/9 by 2015.
Scouting notes: The Blue Jays took a gamble drafting Nicolino in the second round given his commitment to Virginia, but were able to coax him to join the organization with an above slot $615,000 bonus. He's the second Blue Jays southpaw to crack this list, but unlike Norris, he has an excellent professional season under his belt.

He opened the year in the short-season Northwest League and put up video game numbers there. His 1.03 ERA and 0.75 WHIP were otherworldly, and were supported, as much as silly stats like those could be, by his 11.01 K/9 and 1.89 BB/9. He earned an in-season promotion to Low-A Lansing, where he started three games.

Nicolino attacks batters with a three-pitch mix of fastballs, curveballs and change-ups. He added velocity since getting drafted, and could be in store for more as he fills out his 160-pound, 6-foot-3 frame. His fastball now sits mostly in the low-90s. His curveball is coming along and could be an average offering, but it is his change-up that really stands out. The change-up is a plus pitch that he used crush the spirits of opposing hitters.

He's lauded for his pitching IQ, and because of that, is probably a safer bet than most young pitchers in the low minors. He'll likely head back to Low-A, but should be in line for another in-season promotion if he continues to baffle hitters in the Midwest League.

95: Henry Rodriguez/2B/SS/3B/Cincinnati Reds/2-9-90/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Projects for teens home run and stolen base totals with an average in the .280s.
Scouting notes: March 2012: He won't show up on most top prospect lists, but this isn't most prospect lists. This is a fantasy baseball prospect list, where offense is king. This diminutive infielder has hit, and hit, and hit some more at every professional stop. His career line in over 1,800 plate appearances is .307/.358/.445, and he was at his best last season splitting time between High-A and Double-A hitting .320/.372/.469 with 13 home runs and 30 stolen bases. Rodriguez rarely strikes out. His career minor league strikeout rate is just 12.2 percent, and was 13.8 percent last year.

Most of the questions about Rodriguez revolve around his defense. He has spent time at second base, shortstop and third base. His bat profiles best up the middle. He is a switch-hitter who can sting the ball from either side. His power is mainly to the gaps, but he possesses enough pop, and a favorable enough home ballpark, to project mid-to-high teens home run totals. He isn't a burner, but he is an above average base runner with good base running instincts. He's stolen 30 or more bases in consecutive seasons, and was as efficient as ever stealing 18 bases in 21 chances at the Double-A level.

Should he shore up his defensive shortcomings, he could be an in house candidate to replace Brandon Phillips, whose contract is up at season's end. He is ready for Triple-A, and could see the majors this September.

96: Taylor Guerrieri/SP/Tampa Bay Rays/12-1-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes: No projection as a 2011 high school draftee
Scouting notes: March 2012: As a prep pitcher, Guerrieri will probably open the year in extended spring training before heading to the Rookie level Appalachian League, or, if the Rays are aggressive, the short-season New York-Penn League.

October 2011: Few scouting reports questioned his stuff coming into this year's draft, but he slid a bit as there are concerns about his makeup. Guerrieri throws a four-pitch mix that includes a fastball that sits in the 93-96 range and maxes out at 98, a plus curveball, a change-up and a cutter. He hasn't used the change-up or cutter often in games, and both lag behind his fastball and curveball but offer him further options to retire hitters as he develops them. As long as his makeup issues don't get in the way, there is a lot to get excited about.

97: Tommy Joseph/C/San Francisco Giants/7-16-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Projects to be a 20-plus home run hitter with a palatable average in the near future.
Scouting notes: March 2012: He didn't play in any offseason leagues, but he did turn some heads in the spring. Joseph played in four spring training contests and received 11 plate appearances. He showed up his trademark power muscling up for two home runs in those plate appearances. It should be noted that he didn't face the stiffest competition, and it is spring training so the stats should be taken with more than a single grain of salt. That said, it was a good start to the new calendar year for Joseph, who will take to the upper minors. He'll start the year in Double-A.

October 2011: Joseph is a work in progress behind the plate, but one who by most accounts has made strides this year. His standout tool is his power, which showed well in games already as he played as a 19-year-old most of the season. His walk rate is low, but being that it's often referred to as an "old man skill," there is reason for optimism that he'll improve it in time. His strikeout rate was a bit high last year, but he made huge strides this season even while stepping up a level. He finished the season on a high note, hitting 16 of his 22 home runs post All-Star break, and seeing an increase in his average from .240 to .301. If he fully develops, his power will play in fantasy from any position, but would be much more tantalizing from his current position.

98: Noah Syndergaard/SP/Toronto Blue Jays/8-29-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes: Small number of innings pitched, but promising debut.
Scouting notes: March 2012: No Canadian bias including another pitcher north of the U.S. border on this list—Syndergaard earned inclusion. He was a supplemental first round pick in the 2010 draft, and saw time in five games for the Rookie level Gulf Coast League Blue Jays. He followed that up by pitching at three stops in 2011, reaching Low-A before season's end. That's pretty impressive for a young man that won't turn 20 until August. He has struck out better than a batter an inning, 74 strikeouts in 72.1 innings in his pro career, while pounding the zone, with 2.74 BB/9.

He is big, 6-foot-5 and 200 pounds, and throws a fastball to match his big frame. He pitches in the mid-90s and can hit 100 mph with the heater. That pitch is his bread and butter, and he relied on it heavily. He also throws a promising curveball that has plus potential, and a change-up that resides in the mid-80s. He has plenty of time to develop his secondary pitches, and working off a premium fastball is quite the solid starting point. He'll begin this season where he finished last season, back at Low-A.

99: Jed Bradley/SP/Milwaukee Brewers/6-12-90/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Below replacement level projection based on college stats and AFL play.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Bradley was the Brewers' second first-round selection in the 2011 amateur draft, following fellow college pitcher Taylor Jungmann. He signed at the deadline, and thus didn't pitch in any minor league games. He did, however, pitch in five AFL games. He has followed that up with two spring training appearances. In all, the appearances resulted in just over 10 innings of work. The stats are a bit rough, but he was able to strike out 10 batters in 10.1 innings.

The Georgia Tech product is a 6-foot-3, 225-pound southpaw with good stuff. His fastball velocity has a wide range. He usually sits in the low-90s, but can drop to the upper-80s on occasion. On his good days, he can hit the mid-90s reaching as high as 96 mph. He also throws a plus slider, and an above average change-up. His college performance didn't match his stuff, but his upside is that of a number two starter. He should open the year in High-A.

100: Jeurys Familia/SP/New York Mets/10-10-89/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: MLE walk rate dropped from 8.1 BB/9 in 2010 to 4.0 BB/9 in 2011.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Familia's offseason included an addition to the Mets' 40-man roster. He made one forgettable spring appearance, and should open the year in Triple-A. If he picks up where he left off last year, and doesn't revert to his 2010 form, he'll likely be called up over the summer.

October 2011: Familia's money pitch is his premium fastball, which has plus-plus velocity in the mid-to-upper-90s. His command took a huge step forward this year without sacrificing a great deal in strikeouts. He also throws a power slider and is working on his change-up. It sounds as if he's made strides with both secondary offerings this year. He'll need to continue to develop both, or he'll be relegated to the bullpen. Even that wouldn't necessarily cripple his value if the Mets choose to groom him as a closer. For now, though, expect to see the Mets continue to develop him as a starter after a bounce-back 2011 campaign.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Josh Shepardson 2012-03-30T08:14:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-100-fantasy-baseball-prospects-part-3-51-75/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-100-fantasy-baseball-prospects-part-3-51-75/#When:06:43:15 Anthony Gose/OF/Toronto Blue Jays/8-10-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Best MLE wOBA is .290 in 2011. Poor defense record. Peak .253/.317/.394.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Gose's play in the AFL was essentially an extension of his play in Double-A all year. His .250/.348/.433 slash in the AFL was a near carbon copy of his .253/.349/.415 slash with New Hampshire in the Eastern League.
He understands the value of a walk, but struggles to make contact. After struggling with inefficiency stealing bases in 2010, he became a great base stealer in 2011. While hitting is a completely different skill, if his growth as a base runner foreshadows his ability to be coached up elsewhere, Gose could really turn the corner in 2012. He's primed to enjoy the friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League, but is stuck behind a crowded outfield on the parent club.

October 2011: Forecast doesn't like his defense, but most scouting grades suggest his best attributes are his range and arm in the outfield, and his speed. His hitting is what comes under the most scrutiny. Some reports suggest he'll be able to make enough contact to take advantage of his speed and post a decent average. Others see a guy who strikes out too frequently to hit for average.

He offers some pop, and is capable of drawing walks. If he's can get on base at even a moderate rate in the majors, he can be an impact stolen base threat with better than negligible power. If he isn't able to cut back on the strikeouts, he'll be a defensive-minded center fielder or fourth outfielder. Either of those scenarios would make him a fantasy non-contributor. The ceiling may not be high enough to offset the floor and justify this ranking. I'm buying in based on the leap he was able to make in stolen base success, and hoping that's evidence of him being coachable.

51: Michael Olt/3B/Texas Rangers/8-27-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Breakout 2011 result in a projection of useful home run power from the hot corner, with a poor batting average.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Olt had a huge showing in the AFL. He hit .349/.433/.764 and his power was in full force. Olt crushed 13 home runs in 127 plate appearances, leading the AFL, and six more than the next closest hitter. He struck out often, but also walked at a high rate. Basically, his play in the AFL was an extension of his minor league play with some BABIP luck sprinkled in, and the aid of a home run friendly environment. Olt should get his first taste of the upper minors in 2012, opening in Double-A.

October 2011: Olt suffered a broken collarbone which shortened a season that was off to a solid start. He projects to hit for power, but he'll need to cut back on his strikeout rate to hit for average. His defense is quite good at the position, but a move to the outfield may be necessitated by Adrian Beltre's long-term deal in Texas. If he moves to the outfield, he drops entirely off this list. Plus power at third base with the potential for a passable average is too much to pass up at this point on the list.

52: Matt Harvey/SP/New York Mets/3-27-89/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Yet to have a major league quality season; 2011 is best with 4.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Harvey spent half of the season toying with High-A hitters before a promotion to Double-A. In Double-A, he retained a high strikeout rate, though, it did drop a bit. His walk rate rose from 2.84 BB/9, which is quite good, to just a passable 3.47 BB/9. Both component stats should have resulted in better than his 4.53 ERA, something his 3.23 FIP can attest to. He induces more groundball outs than flyball outs and he may not even require a full season in the minors before making his big league debut. It's possible the Mets could send him back to Double-A for more time there, but I expect he'll open the year in Buffalo with their Triple-A affiliate.

October 2011: Harvey follows Wheeler on this list, but it is debatable which is the better prospect. That's good news for the Mets assuming both reach their ceiling. Harvey throws a plus fastball in the low-to-mid-90s and can touch the 95-97 mph range. He also throws a hard slider, a plus curveball that could develop into a plus-plus pitch according to Goldstein, and a developing change-up. The development of his change-up is going to determine whether he just lives up to his high floor, or reaches his front-of-the-rotation ceiling.

53: Jarrod Parker/SP/Oakland Athletics/11-24-88/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Oliver's six year forecast is that of a replacement level player, almost exactly.
Scouting notes: March 2012: The most important stat for Parker in 2011 was his 136.1 innings pitched. He remained healthy, and regained much of his pre-Tommy John injury stuff according to most reports. Parker found his name in the transactions as he was dealt from the Diamondbacks to the A's in a multi-player package that saw Trevor Cahill head to Arizona. He'll no longer call the pitcher-friendlier National League home, but he'll offset the change of leagues by swapping hitter-friendly Chase Field for the O. co Coliseum (previously just called the Oakland Coliseum).

At his best, Parker uses a low-90s sinking fastball to induce groundballs, and his slider to strike batters out. His slider was graded as the best in the Diamondbacks organization before surgery, and it reportedly gained much of its sharpness back as 2011 wore on, and he was further removed from the operation. His other secondary offerings include an above average change-up, and a show-me curveball. Parker's control has been shoddy in the spring, walking six in 7.1 innings. He was sent down to the minors on Monday, but remains in the mix for the A's fifth starter spot as they don't need one until April 17.

October 2011: John Sickels wrote an outstanding Prospect of the Day piece recently about Parker. In short, his stuff is still there, but he's still working to regain control after Tommy John surgery shelved him last season. He isn't throwing his slider as much, but it remains a plus offering. Before his injury he'd have ranked much higher. If he goes back to using the slider more frequently as a punch-out pitch and his strikeout rate climbs, he'll shoot up the list.

54: Randall Delgado/SP/Atlanta Braves/2-9-90/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: 2010 only year with MLE ERA under 6 (4.21)
Scouting notes: March 2012: Delgado got a taste of life in the majors last year, starting seven games for the Braves. He could begin the year in the major league rotation filling in for Tim Hudson while he recovers from offseason back surgery. Delgado's 2.83 ERA in 35 major league innings suggests he's big league ready, but his advanced measures paint a different picture. His control needs work, and his strikeout rate was low and could stand to improve.

His low strikeout rate was largely a result of a low whiff rate on his fastball. Most scouting reports grade his curveball as being ahead of his change-up. With that in mind, it was surprising to see that his change-up generated a whiff rate of 19.29 percent, per his Brooks Baseball player card, compared to 10.0 percent whiff rate on his curveball. His ability to generate empty swings with both secondary pitches should help him improve his strikeout rate substantially in time.

October 2011: The Braves have a glut of young talented pitchers, but not everyone views Delgado as being in the same class as the rest. He throws a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s, a plus curveball and a developing change-up that is described as average with plus potential.

His command is lacking, and is his biggest problem at this point in his young career. His strikeout rates have been solid, but have slipped a bit at each level he's moved up (with the exception being 21.2 innings in Triple-A this year). His walk rate has fluctuated between passable in the mid-3s BB/9, to mildly concerning in the lower-to-mid-4s BB/9.

There is no reason to rush the youngster with all of the rotation under contract (or team control) next season, and other more polished arms like Teheran, Mike Minor and Vizcaino to turn to, so expect to see Delgado spending a significant chunk of next year in Triple-A (barring a trade).

55: Brad Peacock/SP/Oakland A's/2-2-88/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Breakout 2011 and two years of 8+ K/9.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Parker wasn't the only prospect starting pitcher the A's acquired this offseason. In a separate trade, the A's further overhauled their pitching staff sending Gio Gonzalez to the Nationals in return for a prospect haul that included Peacock. A breakout season in the minors earned him three appearances, two of which were starts, with the Nationals in 2011. His 12 innings pitched are too few to draw firm conclusions about his ultimate major league value, but they did provide some PITCHf/x data.

According to his Brooks Baseball player card, he threw two fastballs, but primarily leaned on his four-seamer that averaged 93.19 mph. He also threw a change-up and curveball. His secondary pitches were thrown with near equal frequency. He turned to his change-up 18 percent of the time, and his curveball 15 percent of the time. Of the two, his curveball was much better at creating empty swings from opposing hitters, and the data lined up with his scouting reports, which grade his curveball more favorably than his change-up. Peacock is in the mix for one of three remaining rotation spots. He has been pummeled this spring, and may end up in Sacramento pitching for the A's Triple-A affiliate to begin the year as a result.

October 2011: He was one of John Sickels' breakout prospects coming into the year, and boy, oh boy, was he right. Peacock put together a monster season and now is on top-50 prospect lists left and right. His fastball is a plus pitch and sometimes is described as a plus-plus pitch. He also throws a curveball that some, such as Baseball America, describe as a knuckle curve. It is a swing-and-miss pitch that is a nice pairing with his fastball.

What will determine how successful he can be in the big leagues is how good his change-up becomes. Some still question its ability to develop into an average third offering and think Peacock will end up in the bullpen. I'm willing to gamble it becomes good enough to work through lineups multiple times and pile up strikeouts.

56: Trevor May/SP/Philadelphia Phillies/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: MLE of 6.1 BB/9 in 2011 is career best, as is 10.5 K/9.
Scouting notes: March 2012: May is one of the minor leagues' finest strikeout artists. He made major advances to his control, and was much better in his second go-round with High-A Clearwater. He's now ready for the challenges of the upper minors, and is ready to open the year with Double-A Reading.

October 2011: May's stock is rising after he cut his walk rate from a ghastly 7.84 BB/9 last year to a palatable 4.05 BB/9. His strikeout rate is elite, as the Forecast MLE suggests. He repeated High-A as a 21-year-old this year, so he'll need to prove himself against Double-A hitters next year before moving up this list. He's a tall pitcher 6-foot-5 and has a body that is projectable to add on to. In addition to a fastball that is a plus pitch and can hit the mid-90s, he throws curveballs and change-ups plus potential. If he can develop his secondary stuff and refine his control, his ability to miss bats could put him on the fast track through the upper minors, making the mild age concerns due to repeating a level a moot point.

57: Arodys Vizcaino/SP/Atlanta Braves/11-13-90/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Two good years. Cut BB/9 to below 3 with a 7.5 K/9.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Uh oh, my words last October cautioning that Vizcaino may not have been out of the woods simply resting and rehabbing a partial tear of the UCL appear prophetic now. Of course I'm not a doctor, nor do I pretend to be, but this isn't the first case of a player eventually needing surgery after suffering a partial tear. That's not to say he should have simply had surgery and gotten it out of the way. As Will Carroll tweeted to me, you always attempt to avoid surgery.

Thankfully, medical advances mean this injury is no longer a death knell to a pitcher's career. Unfortunately, it means Vizcaino will miss all of this season, and likely some of next year. It also probably assures him a future role in the bullpen. He's still in the development stages of his career, he has never shown the ability to stay healthy, and working as a starter would require a longer time to build his innings up. His fantasy value drops significantly with a move to the pen, and he won't appear on the next top-100 fantasy prospect update.

October 2011: He's a former Yankees farmhand. The Braves are reaping the benefits of the prospect they received for Javier Vazquez. His stuff grades out well by all scouting outlets, and his performance has been tremendous. Just taking those into account, he'd rank considerably higher.

Not all is good with Vizcaino, though, which is why he lands on the list here. Last year he opted to rehab a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament (the Tommy John ligament). Thus far, that appears to have been a good choice. That said, it's possible, if not probable, that he'll tear it completely and require surgery in the future. Another knock against him is that this is his first season eclipsing 100 innings pitched, meaning he still has to prove he can stay healthy and build up his innings.

The last, and not least, knock against him is that being part of a loaded Braves pitching stable makes his future role uncertain. In most organizations he'd be a slam dunk to continue development as a starter, but the Braves have a number of young pitchers both in their major league rotation and knocking on the door. They may use him as a high-leverage late innings reliever to keep him healthy, and not test his small frame's limits. Those who trust his front-line starter three-pitch mix of a plus velocity fastball, curveball and change-up should move him up the list.

58: Archie Bradley/SP/Arizona Diamondbacks/8-10-92/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Has thrown only two innings in Rookie Level ball, so he doesn't have a forecast yet.
Scouting notes: March 2012: In most draft classes, Bradley would have been the top prep arm. In 2011, that distinction was reserved in the eyes of most for fellow Oklahoma high school pitcher Dylan Bundy. Bradley has a high ceiling in his own right; in fact, his ceiling is that of an ace. He has many hurdles to clear in his development, but the seeds of something special are there.

October 2011: He throws a fastball that has hit 101 mph. If that's not enough to get the juices flowing, he also throws a hammer curveball that's praised by all outlets. He also throws a change-up that gets mixed reviews. His control lacks consistency, so expect him to be brought along slowly by the Diamondbacks. His ceiling is extremely high, high enough that Sickels suggests he may have been a steal at pick seven.

59: Mike Montgomery/SP/Kansas City Royals/7-1-89/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Poor 2011 after good 2009-10 with too many walks (3.9, 3.6, 5.2 BB/9).
Scouting notes: March 2012: Expected by most to be the leader of a wave of young pitchers reaching the big leagues for the Royals, Montgomery went backwards in 2011. His walk rate jumped to north of four batters per-nine innings. He was at his worst prior to the All-Star break with a 4.88 BB/9. Montgomery's control was much better post All-Star break with a 2.99 BB/9. As long as he possesses a power arsenal, he'll remain a high ceiling prospect. He has been brutal in two spring appearances for the Royals, and looks to tackle Triple-A yet again to begin the 2012 season.

October 2011: He's still left-handed, and he still has electric stuff. The results have been lackluster, though, as his control is less than I'd like to see, and his strikeout rate isn't high enough to offset it. He's just 22, so he has time to iron out his issues. The scouting industry remains high on him, but Sickels hints he may downgrade him from a B+ grade to a B and Keith Law suggesting a potential drop of 30- plus spots on his list. He doesn't look like a slam dunk to reach his high ceiling, but if he puts it together this ranking will look foolishly low.

60: Cory Spangenberg/2B/San Diego Padres/3-16-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: The data are limited, but Oliver translated his professional work in 2011 into an MLE slash of .285/.351/.380.
Scouting notes: The Padres selected Spangenberg with the 10th pick in last June's amateur draft. He played third base in college, but has been switched to second base as a pro. His power is of the gap variety, and won't be done any favors calling PETCO park home. It's the other facets of his offensive profile that will appeal to fantasy gamers.

Spangenberg projects to hit for a plus average, and work walks. When on base, Spangenberg will look to use his plus-plus speed to steal bases in bunches. In just 275 at-bats split between Short Season ball and Low-A, he used his wheels to swipe 25 bases in 33 chances (75.6 percent success rate). He should open the year in High-A, and may not need more than this year and next to hone his craft in the minors.

61: Billy Hamilton/SS/Cincinnati Reds/9-9-90/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Great steals, good glove, no bat, lots of strikeouts.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Hamilton followed up his 103 stolen base season in Low-A with a trip to the Puerto Rican Winter League. His offseason was a rough one. He broke a bone in his hand, though, he's fully recovered now. Prior to suffering the injury, he struggled to hit, finishing with a line of .194/.286/.194 in 36 at-bats. That sample is way to small to freak out about, but it's obviously always better to see top prospects performing well in any setting and over any period of time.

He'll begin the year in High-A, and after reading his scouting reports, I'm not overly optimistic he'll move faster than a level at a time. His speed is off the charts, though, and he's worth dreaming on for now.

October 2011: Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks has described his speed as a 90 on the 20-to-80 scale—quite high praise. He's raw and developing, and he'll need to continue to improve making contact, but his plus-plus speed tool and insane stolen base upside at shortstop make him worth a gamble. He's unlikely to bring any power, but young Jose Reyes-type steal numbers would look quite nice if he's able to hit enough to reach the majors.

62: George Springer/OF/Houston Astros/9-19-89/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Some home runs, some walks, lots of strikeouts.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Springer is often described as toolsier than your average college draftee. The Astros nabbed him in the first round of last June's draft, and signed him quickly enough that he was able to play in eight games in the Short Season New York-Penn League. He has the plus power/speed combo that fantasy gamers crave, but his ability as a hitter is more questionable. His strikeout rates were very high in his freshman and sophomore years at the University of Connecticut. He struck out in 25.0 percent of his at-bats as a freshman, and in 28.8 percent of his at-bats as a sophomore. He cut his strikeout rate back substantially to 16.0 percent as a junior.

If he's able to keep his whiffs in check as a pro, his prospect stock will rise rapidly. He'll open the year in Low-A, and the amount of time he spends in the minors will likely come down to how real his gains as a hitter in his junior year were.

October 2011: The words "upside," "tools" and "raw" are thrown around in just about every notable scouting report on Astros first-round pick George Springer. He has plus speed and plus power potential, but his swing mechanics have come into question and he isn't as developed as your typical high first-round college hitter. He's a high risk/high reward prospect, but because he's older than prep boom-or-bust prospects Bubba Starling and Josh Bell, he's finds himself rated lower.

63: Javier Baez/SS/Chicago Cubs/12-1-91/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes:Too small a sample as a 2011 draftee
Scouting notes: March 2012: Baez didn't sign until the Aug. 15 deadline, but that didn't prevent him from playing in three Arizona Rookie level league games, and two in Short Season ball. He has the type of power and batting average projection to suggest he could eventually hit in the heart of the order at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. He'll begin the year in Low-A.

October 2011: Baez is a high offensive ceiling 2011 draftee who currently plays shortstop. Some think he'll need to move to third base, which is why he slots here instead of a dozen or more spots higher. Another knock against Baez is that his makeup has been questioned by a number of scouts. As far as positives, he has plus bat speed that should allow him to hit for power, but Project Prospects' Steve Carter questions if the way he generates plus bat speed will allow him to reach his ceiling as a hitter. Whether he plays shortstop or third base, the potential for both a plus power and hitting makes him an exciting prospect.

64: Dante Bichette Jr./3B/New York Yankees/9-26-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes: Data limited, but his MLE .756 OPS in his professional debut is pretty impressive for a young man who was an 18-year-old last season.
Scouting notes: Bichette was selected in the supplemental first round of last June's draft by the Yankees. He signed quickly, and absolutely annihilated Gulf Coast Leauge pitching, hitting .342/.446/.505 with 23 extra base hits and a 30:41 walk-to-strikeout rate in 240 plate appearances. Perhaps more impressive than his bat was how well he performed in the field. Drafted as a third baseman, many thought he'd end up being forced to the outfield. He showed enough fielding skills at the hot corner to provide hope he can stick there.

Bichette is a below average runner. That won't hurt his fantasy value too much, as he projects to hit for above average power, and add a solid batting average. As his outstanding walk rate suggests, he's got a mature approach at the dish in spite of his youth. He will play in his first full season league in 2012, opening in Low-A.

65: Starling Marte/OF/Pittsburgh Pirates/10-9-88/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: .280s type hitter with a little bit of power and speed.
Scouting notes: March 2012: In over 1,400 career minor league at-bats, Marte has hit .309/.366/.453. It would be nice to see him improve his walk rate, but that .309 batting average is spectacular. Extended a spring training invite, he made the most of his 25 at-bats, hitting .520/.520/.920 with three long balls. Alas, the inevitable demotion to the minors came on Sunday.

He'll open the year in Triple-A, but should be promoted during the season. With Alex Presley impressing last year, and Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata cemented in the other two starting outfield positions, Marte's first taste of the majors could come in a fourth outfielder capacity. Because of that, the Pirates may choose to keep him in the minors most of the year so that he can get regular playing time.

October 2011: Marte is a tremendous athlete learning to play baseball. He's a plus defender who may force the Pirates to move Andrew McCutchen to a corner outfield position. His most salivating tool, especially from a fantasy perspective, is his plus-plus speed. His success rate (just 66.6 percent) indicates he's still learning, but his 24 stolen bases are solid. His power is average-ish, but he has a chance to contribute a bit in the future.

He hit for a ton of average (.332) in Double-A and projects to have a plus hit tool. The fly in the ointment with Marte is his incredibly aggressive approach at the plate, which may not allow him to fully take advantage of his plus-plus speed and his hitting skill if more advanced pitchers make him hit their pitches. His walk-to-strikeout rate was 22:100 this year; he'll need to learn to be patient if he wants to reach base at a high rate. Walking is considered an old person skill, so there is hope he's able to learn.

66: Nick Franklin/SS/Seattle Mariners/3-2-91/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: 2011 saw a regression in power. Oliver still likes him to hit upper teen home run totals in the next six years, but with few walks and a low batting average.
Scouting notes: March 2012: It appears at least some, but perhaps most, of Franklin's struggles in 2011 can be attributed to poor health. He suffered a concussion and broken jaw that caused him to miss time, and fought through a case of mononucleosis.

Franklin was able to make up some of his missed time by accumulating 102 plate appearances in the AFL. There, he hit .258/.333/.393, showing a bit of pop, hitting two home runs, and some patience, walking 11 times. He also showcased a propensity for striking out, recording 26. A healthy season that will start in Double-A should better help in gauging Franklin's future offensive projection. He finished the year strongly there in 2011, and if he picks up where he left off, he could end up in Tacoma before long.

October 2011: Franklin is the Sudoku puzzle of prospects. Last year he ripped 23 home runs in his full season debut while swiping 25 bases. This year he opened in the hitter friendly confines of the High-A Cal league and his power took a dive, producing just five home runs in 258 at-bats. The Mariners promoted him to Double-A, and his power output and his hitting in general improved substantially (albeit in a small sample). He's playing passable defense at shortstop, but some, such as Jim Callis, suggest he'll eventually move to second base. He's set to play in the Arizona Fall League, and is the most likely player on this list to see his stock soar or plummet based on his performance there.

67: Oswaldo Arcia/OF/Minnesota Twins/5-9-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: MLEs regressed in 2011 but projected for 25-30 homers with few walks.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Arcia didn't participate in any offseason leagues, but he did receive nine at-bats in spring training. They were uneventful, and do nothing to change his timetable or future projection. He remains a prospect with the potential to hit for average and power. Arcia was good, but not great in High-A, and he'll open the year there to further refine his craft. Already a veteran of 228 plate appearances there, he may not spend more than a half season with Fort Myers.

October 2011: He's young with plus power projection and a solid average. He's a ways away, but has shown enough for Keith Law to rank him in the middle of his Midseason Top-50 Prospect List. He'll need to tighten his command of the strike zone to really flourish (9:53 walk-to-strikeout in 213 High-A at bats).

68: Nick Castellanos/3B/Detroit Tigers/3-4-92/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Projects to have below average power for a corner position in the next six years.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Surfing around the internet after the Tigers signed Prince Fielder and announced Miguel Cabrera's move back across the diamond to the hot corner yielded some comical, but expected, overreaction to what it meant for Castellanos' future.

Castellanos has finished just one full season of minor league ball, and is a few years away from competing for a major league roster spot. What that means is, the speculation is likely much ado about nothing. After spending all of 2011 in Low-A, he'll begin the year in High-A in 2012.

October 2011: His bat gets good grades from most, and most scouting reports expect him to develop his power as he matures and eclipse 20 home runs annually. He has what some describe as a sweet swing with good bat speed that allowed him to hit over .300 in Single-A this year. He may have to sacrifice some average to generate power, but most would sign up for a .280 average if it comes with 20 plus home runs from their fantasy third baseman. Toss in his respectable 8 percent walk rate as a 19 year old in full season minor league baseball and the seeds of a middle-of-the-order hitter are in place to bloom in Detroit.

69: Robbie Erlin/SP/San Diego Padres/10-8-90/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Great walk rate with above league average strikeout rate.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Erlin is a control guy, but but some question whether he has a put-away pitch capable of striking out major league hitters. Just over four innings in spring training isn't enough time to determine anything, but he has yet to strike anyone out, so I'll mention it.

Reports of his change-up having deception and a double-digit disparity in velocity from his fastball lead me to believe he'll do enough to keep hitters off balance to continue to succeed. Control of multiple pitches and the ability to change speeds can go a long way. Erlin will begin the year in Triple-A as part of a prospect-laden rotation that includes fellow hurlers Casey Kelly and Joe Wieland. Could be a photo finish in the race to the majors for this trio.

October 2011: Erlin is a left-handed pitcher whose fastball operates in the upper-80s to low-90s. He throws an above- average curveball and change-up, but neither pitch is described as being exceptional. Most scouting reports peg his ceiling as a solid No. 3 starter.

How is a pitcher with this description ranked among the top prospects in baseball? It's a perfect storm of positives for Erlin that land him here. Every scouting report I've read lauds his control and high pitching IQ, which he uses to sequence his pitches in ways that maximize their effectiveness. His results have been great in Double-A, where he's struck out more than eight times as many hitters as he's walked (92 strikeouts to 11 walks in 92.2 innings). The final factor is his new organization. He was dealt from the unfavorable home confines in Texas to San Diego, where he can now call PETCO home.

70: Derek Norris/C/Oakland A's/2-14-89/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: How much are you willing to pay in the average category for around 20 home runs? Classic low average slugging catcher projection, gets boost in value in OBP leagues.
Scouting notes: Norris was a three-true-outcomes (home runs, strikeouts, and walks are defined as those "true outcomes") machine in 2011. Over 50 percent of his plate appearances ended in in a home run, strikeout or walk. He hit for a lowly .210 average in Double-A, but his walk rate helped him post a solid .367 on-base percentage.

Can he continue to walk at such a high rate in Triple-A and in the majors? The answer likely comes down to whether he can make enough contact on pitches in the zone to force pitchers into throwing quality strikes. If they are only required to throw strikes, and not necessarily quality strikes, it's unlikely he'll continue to earn ball fours moving up the ladder.

Norris does have the type of raw power to punish a mistake, as he hit 20 home runs last year. It should also be noted that according to his Stat Corner page, a large percentage of his strikeouts the last two years have been looking, not swinging. A converted third baseman, Norris is a plus athlete for a catcher. He used his athleticism and decent speed to steal 13 bases in 17 chances. He shows the defensive chops to stick behind the plate, according to his scouting reports.

Norris found himself behind young Wilson Ramos in Washington. An offseason trade to the A's help clear his path to the majors. Incumbent A's catcher Kurt Suzuki is signed through 2013 with a club option for 2014, but could be used as a trade chip for a rebuilding squad. Norris will open the year in Triple-A with Sacramento.

71: Sonny Gray/SP/Oakland A's/11-7-89/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Gray's underwhelming college stats in 2009 and 2010 likely play a big role in his poor six-year forecast.
Scouting notes: Gray made himself at home in professional baseball immediately. The A's selected Gray 18th overall out of Vanderbilt, and he made a splash in five Double-A starts. In those starts which spanned 20 innings, he allowed only one earned run. That's right, just one. Now, here is the part where I need to caution that stats aren't the be-all, end-all in grading and evaluating a prospect.

Gray is a short right-handed pitcher, standing 5-foot-11. In spite of being undersized, he packs a fastball that sits in the low-90s and can hit 96-97 mph. His best pitch is a nasty curveball that Baseball America rated as the best in the 2011 draft class. He's working on a change-up, but it lags behind his fastball and curveball. If the pitch fails to develop as hoped, Gray has a nice floor of being a late inning reliever, and potentially a closer.

While Double-A hitters would like to have bid him adieu once and for all at the end of 2011, he returns there to open the year, and hopes to continue to dominate. By starting the year in the upper minors, he leaves open the chance that he could reach the majors this year.

72: Yonder Alonso/1B-OF/San Diego Padres/4-8-87/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Not nearly enough power or average to be more than a stop-gap corner infield option in large mixed leagues.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Alonso is finally free from Cincinnati, and no longer is blocked by Joey Votto at his natural position. Unfortunately, he trades Great American Ballpark for Petco. Though his minor league stats don't suggest it, Alonso has above average power. He finally began to tap into that pop in his limited major league time. He's likely more of a threat to hit 20-25 home runs annually than 25-30 like some of his other mashing first base contemporaries. He makes up for some of the difference in power by showcasing a well-balanced approach. Alonso should hit for a high average, and reach base regularly by walking often.

The Padres may not wish to overwhelm him with the responsibility of slotting him in the third or fourth spot in the lineup initially, but he eventually projects to hit in the heart of the order. He'll begin the year with the Padres, and is a worthwhile gamble as a corner infield option in large mixed leagues.

October 2011: Alonso is a finished product for the most part, and thus, his floor is about what you see. His home run rate in the majors won't last, as he is more of a high teens home run hitter than one pacing for 30 plus. His hitting is good enough that he may be capable of flirting with .300 annually. He's playing outfield now because he's blocked at first base by Joey Votto, but make no mistake about it, he's a first baseman in the outfield.

If he isn't traded in the offseason to a team in need of a first baseman, he'll find himself battling Chris Heisey for playing time in Cincinnati and will almost certainly be lifted regularly for a defensive replacement late in games he does start. If he is dealt, his value will take a huge hit as soon as he sheds outfield eligibility.

Potentially further hurting his future value would be a change in home ballparks. Few parks enhance home run hitting as much as Great American Ballpark, so any move likely will hurt his already modest power potential. Think Gaby Sanchez type value with a touch more average. In the outfield, that gets him on this list. As a first baseman, he'd just miss.

73: Matt Davidson/3B/Arizona Diamondbacks/3-26-91/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Projects to hit 20+ home runs in the majors in the near future.
Scouting notes: Davidson was one of two third base prospects drafted in the first round of the 2009 amateur draft by the Diamondbacks. He was drafted in the supplemental first round, after Bobby Borchering. He has since passed Borchering in the third base pecking order. In fact, Borchering will be making the move to the outfield in 2012. Davidson had to share third base duties, and is a below average defender at the position. He has shown enough to provide hope he can stick there, but he'll never receive accolades for his play there.

He strong batter with plenty of thunder in his stick. Just how much average he hits for will be contingent on how much progress he's able to make with reducing his strikeouts. Davidson isn't a free swinger, and he's shown the ability to walk at a decent rate in his young career. He finished last year on Mobile's roster in the Double-A Southern League championship series, and will return there to start this year.

He'll likely spend the entire season in the minors, but should Ryan Roberts turn into a pumpkin, it's possible Davidson could slug his way to the majors a la Paul Goldschmidt in 2011.

74: Addison Reed/RP/Chicago White Sox/12-27-88/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Gaudy strikeout rate as a top-flight reliever.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Reed saw his fantasy stock climb before even throwing a pitch this season. The White Sox dealt Sergio Santos to the Toronto Blue Jays, clearing the path for Reed to claim the closer role in the near future. Matt Thornton is expected to begin the year as the Pale Hose closer, but it could be Reed who closes (get it, closes) the year with the gig.

Until he's able to contribute in saves, owners in deep mixed leagues and AL-only formats can expect Reed to be a positive contributor to ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.

October 2011: Reed was an equal opportunist in embarrassing hitters at four minor league stops before reaching the majors (where he hasn't stopped striking batters out). He throws a plus-plus fastball and a plus-plus slider. He also throws a change-up, but it isn't as consistent as his other two pitches. He started and closed games at San Diego State, but it appears the White Sox are content with him dominating in a late-inning role. Sergio Santos did a fantastic job closing games for the White Sox, so Reed may not pick up saves anytime soon, but he should still be a fantasy asset.

75: Luis Heredia/SP/Pittsburgh Pirates/8-16-94/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes: Too small a sample size for a meaningful projection.
Scouting notes: If you are over the age of 16, think back to what you were doing at that age. My guess is that none of you were thinking about pitching in professional baseball. The fact Heredia pitched 30 innings in the U.S. as a 16-year-old (for most of those innings) is pretty astonishing. The stats won't jump off the page at readers, but he didn't embarrass himself against competition a couple years older than himself.

Heredia is a 6-foot-6, right-handed pitcher. He throws his fastball in the 92-93 mph range, and can pump it up to 96 mph. He backs it with a pair of offspeed pitches, a curveball and a change-up. Both show plus potential, but are a ways away from getting there. His ceiling is that of an ace, and Kevin Goldstein says it rivals that of fellow Pirates prospect arms Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole. Heredia is expected to move up a level this year, and play in the Short Season New York-Penn league for State College. Heredia may be the prospect furthest from reaching the majors, but his ceiling is too high to ignore.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Josh Shepardson 2012-03-23T06:43:15+00:00