The Hardball Times -- Jonathan Sher http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-06-19T08:32:15+00:00 Get around an innings cap http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/get-around-an-innings-cap/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/get-around-an-innings-cap/#When:08:38:15
I was such a stranger to an innings cap that I didn't pay it much heed until the start of August, when I noticed Yahoo projected my pitching staff to finish close to 100 innings over the 1,250 cap. If I continued to use the staff as I had, I would hit the cap in the first two weeks of September.

At that point I began to spot-start my pitchers, using them in games in which they were more likely to win because of the opponent and the opponent's starting pitcher. That strategy has worked well -- while I missed a few gems because a starting was on the bench, I've missed a lot more losses and no-decisions, quite a few of the higher scoring sort. Spot starting has also enabled me to move ahead of the pack in saves, securing third in that category, and lowered my ERA and WHIP.

I thought I had squeezed all the strategy out of the innings cap until I noticed that some teams were finishing with a few more innings than 1,250. I scratched my head, then checked the rules and found this:

"All players active on the day a maximum is reached will receive credit for their stats."

That explained the extra innings and it also opened the door to one final strategy I am using today and tomorrow.

At day's end Sunday I had 1,228 innings, leaving me with 22 more before the cap. Looking at the probably pitchers for the week, I had Brett Anderson going Monday and the trio of Mat Latos, Wandy Rodriguez and Jonathan Sanchez going Tuesday. Between the four I would almost certainly go over the 22 innings on Tuesday, giving me four starts the final week.

But I could do better.

Checking free-agent starters I found a slew of them as is always the case in a mixed-league setting with only 14 owners. I could safely add a second starting pitcher Monday and still use my two closers without hitting 22 innings. And that would place me about five innings short of the cap for Tuesday, allowing me to load up again.

So for Monday I picked up Kevin Slowey who will be pitching in Kansas City against Kyle Davies and for Tuesday I went with Randy Wolf facing the Mets in Citifeld and Anibal Sanchez against the Braves in Atlanta — though I will keep an eye on my WHIP before deciding to go with Wolf and Sanchez.

That gives me up to seven starts the final week and two days with two closers despite having only 22 innings left. By contrast, my nearest rival both overall and in winds has 51 innings left but only five or six scheduled starts. He could follow my approach and negate my advantage, of course, but I suspect he may not.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jonathan Sher 2010-09-27T08:38:15+00:00 Two Rays deep keepers http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/two-rays-deep-keepers/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/two-rays-deep-keepers/#When:06:07:15
On the mound David Price has put up shinier numbers than his peripherals support, but that just means he's only established himself as a good, not elite, pitcher. Wade Davis has struggled some his first full season but should improve. Jeremy Hellickson has been spectacular in the minors and I think will better adjust to his first full season than either Price of David—Hellboy is a more polished pitcher.

In the field Desmond Jennings is the heir apparent to a departing Carl Crawford and if he stays healthy should hit for a solid average and challenge league leaders in stolen bases—he may even hit a few more home runs than he's shown this year with an iffy wrist.

But if you are in a deep keeper league, guys such as Hellickson and Jennings are long gone—in my 12-team American League auction league, both were signed in 2009—Jennings was on a roster in 2008 too but was dropped because of injuries and then picked up after a healthy and strong start in 2009.

But even with those players gone there is room for a couple of sleepers I think may surprise in 2011 and both are solid candidates in deeper keeper leagues:

(1) Jacob McGee—Fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, McGee is getting a September audition and might even make the postseason roster if the Rays decide he's a better fit for the bullpen than Jeremy Hellickson. Was all jitters his first appearance but showed his stuff in his second game with an average fastball of 95.5 and a peak of 98.5. Doesn't have great secondary pitches but with plenty of movement on his fastball, he doesn't need it. It's likely he'll start the year as a LOOGY, but I think he has an outside chance of taking the closer's role by year's end. Not only will Soriano be gone but Benoit may too—both will be free agents.

(2) Leslie Anderson—With Carlos Pena almost certain to leave as a free agent and Matt Joyce mediocre again this year, there may be two open spots at first base and right field. Anderson can play both. While he doesn't have the power of a typical corner player, he has shown moderate power and an insane line drive rate of 39% at Triple-A. Has struggled a bit against lefties but could find himself in the better half of a platoon. He'll turn 29 next March, so he's hardly a prospect, but he adjusted well to his first year here and I expect he'll be a solid hitter.

Both player fit profiles of guys who are often underrated.

McGee was once one of the top five or 10 pitching prospects in baseball, rated more highly than Davis and Hellickson, but he lost his luster with his injury and the predictable struggles upon his return. If it is a truism that fantasy owners over-pay for hyped rookies, it's also true they often under-estimate the ceiling for players who either struggled or were hurt.

Anderson has two conventional knocks against him: He's far too old for a prospect and he lacks the power of a prototype first baseman or corner outfielder. While both are true, the former was the product of Cuban citizenship, not a lack of production, and as for the latter, while that may handicap his long-term success, if you're interested in winning your fantasy league next year, the opportunity may be there for him to get at-bats in a good lineup.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jonathan Sher 2010-09-20T06:07:15+00:00 CarGo is the MVP http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/cargo-is-the-mvp/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/cargo-is-the-mvp/#When:05:47:15
Pujols entered the year as the consensus top player in fantasy ball, Votto could lay claim to it best young superstar, but Gonzalez was more of a wild card, a player with power and speed but also poor plate discipline, a short track record of major league success and not even an iron-clad hold on a starting job. That he's matched them in triple crown stats while stealing bases at a harder-to-fill position has made him far more valuable—in fact he's far more valuable this season than any other player in baseball

My draft team, the NorthExposures, was among the beneficiaries in our 14-owner mixed league, one of the countless public leagues at Yahoo. The chart below shows the list of 50 players who appear most often on Yahoo's top 500 Public League teams (rotisserie scoring):

Player %500 Fantasy Team Draft position
Carlos González 51.6 NorthExposures 110
Buster Posey 32.6 Honkers --
Mat Latos 31.8 NorthExposures 222
Adam Wainwright 31.6 The_Superhoo 49
Billy Wagner 30.2 Snipas 91
Francisco Liriano 27.8 The Little Ninjas 234
Juan Pierre 26.6 Honkers 236
John Axford 25.6 fHoogazi --
Álex Ríos 24.2 Vegas Breasts 158
Josh Hamilton 23.4 MR Hoos 93
Rafael Soriano 21.4 NorthExposures 143
David Price 21.4 The Little Ninjas 182
Carl Crawford 20.8 fHoogazi 17
Jon Lester 20.8 The Little Ninjas 47
Josh Johnson 20.4 fHoogazi 73
Martín Prado 20.4 Bealestreet Bluesmen 142
Hanley Ramírez 20.2 Bealestreet Bluesmen 2
Tim Hudson 20.2 Bealestreet Bluesmen 167
Chris Pérez 19.8 NorthExposures 274w
Robinson Canó 19.6 Uni Va Cavs 41
Matt Capps 18.8 Snipas 218
Vladimir Guerrero 18.4 NorthExposures 194
Omar Infante 18.2 The_Superhoo 288
Jason Heyward 17.8 Snipas 106
José Bautista 17.8 fHoogazi --
Miguel Cabrera 17.6 Gus Burgher 14
José Reyes 17.2 NorthExposures 56
Ryan Franklin 17.0 WahooWasp 173
Max Scherzer 16.4 Vegas Breasts 213
Clay Buchholz 16.2 fHoogazi 292
Hong-Chih Kuo 16.2 Tiki --
Hunter Pence 16.0 Tiki 112
Joakim Soria 15.8 The_Superhoo 105
Joey Votto 15.8 Bealestreet Bluesmen 27
Brian Wilson 15.6 Bealestreet Bluesmen 139
Roy Halladay 15.6 The_Superhoo 21
Brandon Lyon 15.4 fHoogazi --
Ryan Zimmerman 15.4 MR Hoos 20
Heath Bell 15.2 Snipas 119
Andrés Torres 15.2 NorthExposures --
Ryan Raburn 15.0 Vegas Breasts --
Clayton Kershaw 14.6 NorthExposures 82
Tommy Hanson 14.6 The Little Ninjas 66
Brad Lidge 14.6 WahooWasp 224
Albert Pujols 14.4 Tiki 1
Brett Gardner 14.2 Uni Va Cavs --
Kevin Gregg 14.0 Honkers --
Trevor Cahill 14.0 Honkers --
Justin Verlander 13.8 WahooWasp 61
Nelson Cruz 13.8 NorthExposures 59

My thoughts and observations:

(1) This reinforces my belief that while leagues can be lost in the early rounds, they are won in the middle and late rounds. You have to go down to the 17th most valuable player to find a first-round pick in Hanley Ramirez and only two other first-rounders cracked the top 50.
(2) It sucked this year if you had the third pick of the first round, as I did. Pujols and Ramirez were vastly superior to anyone else heading into the season and proved why.
(3) Miguel Cabrera is the type of player to take in the first couple of rounds: Safe, consistent, not prone to injury and young enough that he shouldn't regress.
(4) Sixteen of the top 50 were selected after round 10 and 10 weren't selected at all. It really pays to research deeply enough to make strong picks later in the draft.
(5) Toss out the pre-draft rankings and don't be afraid to over-draft a player you think is underrated. That's how I got Cargo, Cruz. Of course it's also how I ended up with Julio Borbon, so there is risk involved.
(6) Here's an attempt to group the players, noting that some players fit in to several:

- Budding stars: Gonzales, Cano, Zimmerman, Kershaw, Hanson,
- top prospects: Posey, Latos, Axford, Heyward
- Prospects a year or two later: Price, Perez, Scherzer, Buchholz, Rayburn, Gardner, Cahill
- best of the best: Wainwright, Crawford, Lester, Johnson, Ramirez, Cabrera, Soria, Votto, Wilson, Halladay, Bell, Pujols, Verlander
- injury risks: Wagner, Reyes, Hudson, Cruz
- comeback kids: Liriano, Rios, Hamilton, Guerrero
- one-dimensional wonders: Pierre, Franklin
- underrated: Prado, Pence
- change of scenery helped: Soriano
- luck at a shallow position: Infante
- out of left field: Bautista, Torres
- Emerging closers: Kuo, Lyon, Lidge, Gregg

(7) There is a deeper pool of prospects a year or two past their buzz than there are of current prospects.
(8) Most of the "best of the best" are on the right side of 30.
(9) Picking injury risks can be a viable strategy, but don't go overboard.
(10) It surprised me Bautista was so low in the top-50, but perhaps our league was slow to pick him up as a waiver claim and missed out on some of his production. Or maybe there is a weaker correlation between good free agent acquisitions and a good overall finish than there is between good drafts and finishes since arguably the draft is more a product of skill where as free agent signing can simply be a matter of who is quickest.
(11) I was able to build what looks to be the league winner with strong picks in the middle and late rounds. My NorthExposures ended up with two of the top three, three of the top 11, four of the top 19, five of the top 22, six of the top 27, seven of the top 40 and nine of the top 50, including one I picked up as a free agent (Torres). In the lower rounds, especially, go for players with high ceilings who are ranked low because they haven't fulfilled their potential, are injury risks or who struggled the previous year.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jonathan Sher 2010-09-13T05:47:15+00:00 Auction magic: Let others do your bidding http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/auction-magic-let-others-do-your-bidding/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/auction-magic-let-others-do-your-bidding/#When:05:39:15
For that matter, I would rather ride a ferris wheel than a roller coaster.

So when it comes to high-risk landings with little margin for error, this season in my auction league may be as close I get.

I've lamented enough about the mounting injuries to my American League squad, so I won't break out the violins.

Suffice it to say my left engine is shot, my fuel tank needle is on the wrong side of empty and my goggles have fogged up so much I can barely make out the money spots on the flight deck as we enter the last four weeks of the season.

In our league there is not the saving grace of waiver wire pickups, We are stuck with our 40-man rosters except for trades and once-a-month free agent auctions. The trade option is remote as we can only swap with teams contiguous in the standings after our August trade deadline. So that leaves our final free agent auction.

We start each season with $100 each for monthly auctions plus any money left unspent in our annual auction, money we can use to bid on anyone who doesn't play for a National League organization—I've used my budget in years past to get bullpen guns who might someday assume the closer mantel, prospects I hope may land a gig the following year and the odd National League player who gets traded to the junior circuit. The latter isn't all that common a phenomenon since our league has a bizarre rule I've tried without success to get sacked: Any owner who loses a player to a trade to the NL can get in return a player who gets swapped back at the same salary and contract status as the player he lost. If multiple players are traded and more than one owner loses players in that deal, the owner that loses the highest salaried player gets dibs on which player he wants in return.

The rule has meant huge windfalls for owners who lose a prospect in a trade of prospects for an establish star—they get the star for the salary of a prospect. But this year has been different. The White Sox gave up no one to get Manny Ramirez, so he becomes the prize catch in a free agent auction that includes:

—New and successful closer Koji Uehara, whom I had picked up early this season, dropped after his injury woes and almost bid for in our August free agent auction. He is easily the best of the closer candidates the Orioles have cycled through and is a great September pickup for those needing saves. His only downside is his injury history.
—Ivan Nova is a solid and I think under-rated prospect who should get wins pitching for the Yankees.
—Brad Hawpe, like Manny, came to the AL in a player-free transaction.
—Jeff Francoeur will only hit against lefties for Texas but might be a nice fit for a team that needs a little power without sacrificing average as he has historically hit much better against left-handers and will now face some of them in a hitter-friendly park.

By the standards of our deep league of 12 teams, the free agent buffet is rather plentiful.
My problem is this: I don't have enough left in my free agent budget to even get to the sneeze guard.

In May I started with a free agent budget of $105 and facing a future without Kelly Shoppach (which doesn't seem so bad in hindsight) I plugged what I thought was my only hole with John Jaso, spending $37. Now Jaso has been pretty good, walking more than he strikes out, hitting for a good average (.281) with a sustainable BABIP (.301) and showing a little power and speed: He's hit five homers and stole four bases in fewer than 300 at-bats. I just wish I bid a bit less—the next-highest bid was $25. That month I also picked up Darren Oliver for $3 and Uehara for $9 before letting him go when injuries sidelined him.

In June I was chasing Oriole closers again, a perilous task, and blew $11 on Will Ohman and $2 on Jim Johnson. The next month I landed Kevin Frandsen for $15 to replace an injured Asdrubal Cabrera and $24 for Connor Jackson to replace Mike Cameron. My only bid that might succeed was my cheapest: $1 for Mark Trumbo, who I expect will be called up now that the Triple-A regular season has ended. That left me with all of $3 for free agent auctions in August in September. And that would seemingly put me out of the race to get Manny and anyone but under-the-radar prospects at this point.

To make matters worse, while I cling tenuously to second place, the team in third place has the biggest war chest among the contenders—$44. If he were to get Manny, Uehara and Nova, my chances of staying second would evaporate entirely.

But rather than despair, I tried something new. While I couldn't out-bid my rival, perhaps I could find other owners who could and persuade them to do so.

I turned my focus to an owner who has no chance of finishing in the money—he's so far behind in offensive categories he can't make up enough ground to pass others and get much beyond his ninth-place standing. He hadn't placed a bid all year, so he had $100 to his name. What he hadn't noticed was that just above him in the standings were three owners still trying to move up to the money, which in our league are the top four slots. So I called him and pointed out just that: He could out bid anyone and flip the winnings to an owner above him who would surely give up something useful for next year. Spending $45 each on Manny and Uehara would give him the most marketable talent. He'd benefit next year and I would be a happy bystander because I rather see those two flipped to an eighth-place team than to the third-place team. He agreed to place the bids.

Then I phoned our first-place owner, who is 30 points ahead, in first in five categories and second in the other three. He too had no reason on the surface to bid for a player this year because he is a lock to win. I reminded him I was in a tight battle for wins and might be interested in trading next-year talent for Ivan Nova should he get him. He saw the wisdom of that and has $16 in his free agent budget, almost certainly enough to reel him in. I made no guarantee if a trade: I said I hoped to have enough wins with the starters I have to not need Nova. But the possibility I met held enough value to him to make a play.

My hard work done, I set out to spend my final $3. I decided to make a $2 play for Francoeur. While others available will get more playing time, I am in the delicate position of trying to pick up a few more RBIs while also improving or at least maintaining my batting average, and players such as Daniel Nava risk damaging the latter. Also, I think Hawpe will go for well above $2. I also made a $1 bid for a prospect I think has flown under the radar, Leslie Anderson, a 28-year-old Cuban defector who is a dark horse to grab a starting spot next year with the Rays, who will be without free agents Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford and weren't entirely pleased with production in right field. Anderson lacks the power bat of a corner infielder or outfielder but had been ripping line drives the past two months and his performance is impressive considering how much he has had to adjust—36% of his batted balls in Triple-A have been line drives.

I'm awaiting the results of the auction—we usually have them by Sunday, but I suspect our commissioner may be enjoying the Labor Day weekend, not aware of just how hard I have labored not with my own hand but trying to persuade others to make a play at the pot. I'll let you know how it goes.

In the meantime, I'd love to hear some of the more creative and innovative things you've done to compete in your league.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jonathan Sher 2010-09-07T05:39:15+00:00 Fantasy fluff the right stuff http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-fluff-the-right-stuff/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-fluff-the-right-stuff/#When:13:33:15
When the phone call came, I could hear the hurt in her voice and I knew I was in trouble. "I though I had married someone who shared my traditional values—I can't believe you're seeing someone else."

I stammered, tried to compose a plausible alibi, but she would have none of it. She had seen me all those late nights sneaking off to my my new-found attraction.

"I want the truth," she yelled!

"You can't handle the truth," I thought . . . but I told her.

For half my life I had been faithful to one type of fantasy baseball based on the book that inspired a lot of us in the 1980's written by Daniel Okrent and friends who coined the term rotisserie baseball at a formative gathering at a New York City restaurant—La Rotisserie Française. Our leagues used auction to mimic free markets with salary constraints and enough owners that we would struggle to fill our rosters with talent, forcing most teams to take risks and settle for mediocrity some places to afford excellence elsewhere. Rules were structured in such a way as to limit roster moves to no more than once a week. The leagues allowed keepers so owners could build for today or tomorrow. All these rules serve one over-arching goal: To make the experience of playing fantasy baseball much like running a real baseball team.

But after 20 years of realism, I was ready for an escape. And when a different sort of fantasy league flashed her lashes at me, I resisted for as long as I could, but in the end, I was too weak. There she stood, dressed in nothing but a snake draft and the promise of a wealth of choices that just weren't possible with a traditional gal. There would be only 14 owners for a mixed-team league and the only limit on roster moves was the strength and speed of your typing finger, of, if you are more adept than me, your typing fingers.

Five months have passed since that fateful night when I threw caution and tradition to the wind. I've learned a lot about my new mistress, my old sweetheart and even myself. But the two most salient lessons are this:

(1) Deep auction leagues are more realistic.
(2) Sometimes realism sucks.

When real baseball teams lose a good player to injury, there is not often another stud waiting to take his place. The same holds true in deep auction leagues, a brutish fact that's been driven home again and again in my Can12 A.L league. Spending chunks of time in the disabled list have been Kelly Shoppach, Mike Cameron, Derek Holland, Hector Rondon, Asdrubal Cabrera, Mike Montgomery, Kendry Morales, Shin-Soo Choo, Matt Weiters, Michael Saunders, Alex Rodriguez and JJ Putz. Two of my key acquisitions joined them: Connor Jackson and Jacoby Ellsbury, who surfaced long enough to tease me with four steals in one game before re-joining my dragoon of disabled.

I covered my first loss, Shoppach, by spending way too much of our free agent budget on John Jaso and tried to replace Cameron and Choo with Jackson, but there was little I could do as injuries mounted.

By comparison, losing players in my shallower draft league has actually been kind of fun: There's enough surplus talent that when one player goes down it the replacement choices are varied and interesting. Brett Anderson goes down twice so I picked up Gavin Floyd, Brett Cecil and Wandy Rodriguez. Magglio Ordonez is lost so I pick up Andres Torres. In recent weeks I lost Nelson Cruz, Carlos Gonzalez and ARod in short order, so needing runs and batting average, I picked up Jose Tabata, Coco Crisp and Neil Walker.

No major league team enjoys that depth of talent or the ability to trade for it, though I guess you could make the case for the latter with the New York Yankees. It's not at all realistic.

But it is fun.

It also provokes a number of strategies on draft day:

(1) The more shallow the league, the better it is to take risk on players with high ceilings who might fail because of injury or because their performance hasn't caught up to their skills. In a deep league, those risks are fraught with risk. If a player crashes you are very likely riding with him down the elevator shaft. But in a shallow league, when an elevator falls, simply get off and catch another player on the way up.

(2) The availability of good players make it more likely rival owners will prematurely cast out talent which you can then scoop up. In my draft league you could assemble a pretty good starting staff just from cast-offs in April and May: Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez, Phil Hughes, Gavin Floyd, Brett Cecil, and Wandy Rodriguez—I picked up Hughes in April, Floyd in June and Cecil and Rodriguez in July.

(3) Daily roster moves also makes it easy to churn players for counting stats, especially starting pitchers.

(4) It's less crucial in a shallow league to draft for a balance since there will be ample means to shift priorities. In a deep auction league you generally must trade to shore up weaknesses and that leave your future in the hands of rival owners in your league.

(5) While you are less dependent on trades in a shallow league, a shrewd owner may find it easier to pull one off since he is not limited to the player on his own roster when trying to make a swap. Earlier this year I was looking to move Mark Reynolds because he was killing my batting average and was ready to dump Brian Matusz because it seemed clear he was at least a few months away from turning the corner. I approached a rival whom I knew had the misfortune of being a die-hard Orioles fan and in desperate need of home runs and RBI. I wanted Ryan Braun. He wasn't quite ready to pull the trigger. A few days later, Pedro Alvarez was called up and I claimed him within minutes. Adding him to the package cemented the deal.

(6) Generally avoid taking pitchers in the middle rounds because the crap shoot's not a whole lot better than the late rounds and there will be un-drafted talent that will perform well. In our league, among the 11 owners who actively managed their teams, more than half of starting pitchers taken in rounds 10 to 15 were dropped before the All-Star break. After round 15 there was good talent including Mat Latos, Clay Buchholz, Francisco Liriano, Phil Hughes, Andy Pettitte, Stephen Strasburg, Brandon Arroyo, Shawn Marcum, Diasuke Matsuzaki, Ted Lilly and CJ Wilson. I largely avoid taking pitchers in early rounds too—I I took none in the first five rounds and two of my first three taken didn't pan out: Javier Vasquez mostly bombed and Anderson missed most of the season due to injuries.

My new flame has been fun—I've quite enjoyed my shallow draft league and for many of the reasons it isn't realistic. It doesn't hurt that I've been in first place for most of the time since early-June and have opened up a sizable lead as we head toward season's end. But I think it's more than that. I love the fact that frustrations and setbacks can be short-lived.

I realize, of course, that one can play in a deep draft league or a shallow auction league but I think the reverse is more often the case: Draft leagues are more apt to attract casual fantasy fans who don't want to know the names of major league backups or a prospect list that goes deeper than a top-10. Playing both for the first time had been an eye-opener.

How about you? Have you played in both deep and shallow leagues, auctions as well as drafts? Do you prefer one over the other? Why?

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jonathan Sher 2010-08-30T13:33:15+00:00 Fantasy confessions: I traded Jesus http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-confessions-i-traded-jesus/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-confessions-i-traded-jesus/#When:08:50:15
Montero, that is. There. I said it. I have confessed my sin. I am prepared to repent. But not quite yet. There's still seven weeks left in the baseball season.

Jesus Montero and I go way back. It was March of 2008. I had returned to fantasy baseball after a nearly two decades hiatus in which I wandered the wilderness, got married, had kids and worked like a dog. Invited by a colleague to join an American League-only roto league, one with keepers and a deep reserve list, I agreed, then spent the few weeks I had trying to make up for spending more time changing diapers than watching what makes a good change-up.

My cram skills, finely honed by 20 years of schooling, were badly rusted. So when I walked into the basement of Dan Grindstaff's basement, which would soon be filled with pizza and beer, I sat down having done an admirable job studying the available major league talent. But the minor leagues -- whoa Betsy -- I came armed with nothing more than someone else's ranking sheet and some vague notion that I would target catchers because they were so scarce (and so speedy to develop -- not).

I braced myself for the ride that is an auction and survived with only one inexcusable blunder, out-bidding a smarter rival for Richie Sexton when I didn't really need another first baseman (I guess that's two blunders).

Then I turned my focus, or what remained of it, to the reserve draft, a snake draft with each team to have 17 picks. I began with minor leaguers closer to the the Show, but soon they were gone and I had crossed out most of the top-rated prospects. Not willing to simply give in to random guesses, I looked at what was left on my list and noticed something striking: There were a few guys with really strange names, at least in my part of the world.

Beau Mills. Got 'im

Lars Anderson. Check.

And finally Jesus. No, not Jesus Rafael Montero, who has since batted 340 times and swatted one home run for the Cardinals organization -- quick aside: If you can afford a dead roster spot next year nominate this Montero and see if anyone bites. No, I drafted the real deal, the one with no middle name, who had played all of 33 games the year before in rookie ball.

It was only later as the season would unfold that I had picked him a year or two early: While ours is a keeper league, we can only keep a player for three years at their auctioned or drafted price -- or boost the salary by signing a long-term contract before the third year. I had the golden boy but it was too early, a case of premature anticipation, something I'm told is treatable.

So I dropped Montero by season's end, then grimaced when the following season, he was taken in the reserve draft a few slots before my turn by a rival sipping tropical drinks drafting from a cruise ship via an Internet connection.

By July I had decided to trade for the following year, swinging deals for bargain-priced Sin-Soo Choo and Adam Lind. Then I turned my gaze toward Montero and pulled the trigger, giving up a moderately-priced Hideki Matsui along with Ronny Cedeno and Mike Moustakas.

Jesus had returned. I was saved. (Quite a feat as I'm Jewish.)

I kept Montero for this year, one of the building blocks for my dynasty along with Desmond Jennings, Justin Smoak and Brian Matusz. I began the year as a heavy favorite, confident because of what seemed an unparalleled keeper list. Over-confident, it turned out.

Lost to injuries for chunks of the season were Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Mike Cameron, Kelly Shoppach and Kendry Morales.

By the time Morales was carted off it was clear my dream of dominance was illusory. I turned to the one owner in the league whose circumstance seemed a perfect match for my own. His team appeared out of contention and he was openly talking to trade. He had a struggling and moderately-high priced Mark Teixeira and two studs in the last year of their contracts, Justin Verlander and Dustin Pedroia. I had Morales locked up for another year at a bargain basement price of $6. The proposal was straight forward: Teixeira would replace Morales and Pedroia would replace Cabrera in my lineup while Verlander would shore up a staff that was chronically short of wins. My rival would get the best-priced slugger for next year and, if that wasn't enough, I'd add a prospect -- I had half of the top 20 prospects in the league.

What followed wasn't negotiations. My rival was ambivalent. He didn't have the time to do the research needed to come to a conclusion about what he wanted -- he had just too much going on his life to slavishly devote himself, his pursuit of fantasy hobbled by more trivial things like work, family, friends and hobbies. Our non-talks stretched out weeks. Time was running out for me: One of my other rivals had quietly assembled a team that was starting to blow away everyone else. With a Internet-less trip looming to Italy, I stepped up the pressure, but there was to be no exchange of players or vows. I left the continent with the light of first place growing ever dimmer, my only solace weeks of wine, food, natural beauty and invigorating history.

I returned resigned to second only to realize even that consolation prize was slipping from my grip. Dumping season had begun, a few rivals had strengthened their squads, and then my bad luck with injuries tag-teamed with a nasty and unexpected turn of events at the trade deadline: Ron Gardenhire decided John Rauch, my second closer, wasn't mediocre enough, and traded for Matt Capps.

There weren't a lot of dance partners left: Most teams were still in contention to finish in the money. I didn't have excess to trade except prospects. I sent out offers to two team owners I thought had given up the current season, one a blockbuster that was lost in email -- he traded instead with a rival. A second owner was slow to get back. I sat by the computer, awaiting a response. It was my high school prom all over again.

Then, just to stir the pot and vent, I placed all my studs for next year on the trading block. At long last the second owner replied. Over the course of a day we hammered out a deal: I traded away Lonnie Chisenhall and Tanner Scheppers for two months of Josh Beckett, injury risk and all.

Later I was to swing a deal with the rival that leads the field by 30 points, trading Max Scherzer and Jemile Weeks for Colby Lewis, Alexei Ramirez (who is in the last year of his contract) and Mitch Moreland.

Neither trade upset me: I don't think Chisenhall or Scheppers will contribute too much next year, Lewis and Scherzer are a wash and I really like Moreland's chances to surprise as a poor man's Billy Butler.

But between those trades I pulled another. With Rauch out as closer I needed another and I still had to make up ground in wins, batting average and steals just to hold on to second place.. I called the only owner in our league who seems always cool, and said Hey Jude (he gets that a lot), let's deal. He asked me who I wanted. Brian Fuentes, Brett Cecil, Nick Markakis and Jacoby Ellsbury, all either in the last year of their contracts or over-priced. Now who would I give back, he asked. Marco Scutaro, I said, J.D. Drew. And then the words came tumbling from my mouth like a Mookie Wilson ground ball slipping through the wickets of Bill Buckner.

Jesus Montero.

In the back of my mind I was already rationalizing the move: He was entering his third year next season and probably would begin in the minors, he still couldn't catch all that well, first base wasn't an option and the Yankees seemed intent on trading him. He had only been hitting well for a couple of weeks. I already had Matt Weiters on my squad and could get by without a second stud catcher. I liked Eric Hosmer, only in his first year of a contract, even more.

But for the second time in two years I had lost Montero and it still feels like a kick in the gut, a self-inflicted one at that, no small feat when you consider my lack of flexibility. Ellsbury going down for likely the rest of the year, a risk I knowingly assumed, makes it even worse.

Which brings me to this: In your time playing fantasy baseball, which one move caused you the most anguish? And for those whose wound is not so fresh, what, if anything, have you learned?

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jonathan Sher 2010-08-23T08:50:15+00:00 Rookie mistakes: Draft day retrospective http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/rookie-mistakes-draft-day-retrospective/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/rookie-mistakes-draft-day-retrospective/#When:10:40:15

Draft


1.(3) Alex Rodriguez
2. (26) Adrian Gonzalez
3. (31) Mark Reynolds
4. (54) Jose Reyes
5. (59) Nelson Cruz
6. (82) Clayton Kershaw
7. (87) Javier Vazquez
8. (111) Carlos Gonzalez
9. (115) Julio Borbon
10. (138) Brett Anderson
11. (143) Rafael Soriano
12. (166) Kurt Suzuki
13. (171) David Aardsma
14. (194) Vladimir Guerrero
15. (199) Jonathan Sanchez
16. (222) Mat Latos
17. (227) Brian Matusz
18. (250) Scott Sizemore
19. (255) Magglio Ordonez
20. (278) Travis Snider
21. (283) Everth Cabrera
22. (306) Chris Young
23.(311) Peter Moylan

Draft analysis (not pick-by pick but some observations)


(1) I hated getting the third pick as there was a big perceived drop-off after Albert Pujols and Hansley Ramirez. I debated long and hard about going with ARod or Ryan Braun and the tipping point for me was what I expected would be an un-godly number of RBI opportunities in a Yankee lineup I thought might feature three .400 OBP guys at the top of the order. ARod does have a few more RBI but with his wonky hip I would rather have Braun right now. Braun ended up sliding to sixth behind Chase Utley and Matt Kemp.
(2) Reynolds' batting average has been painful but should improve as his BABIP returns to his and league norms.
(3) Reyes was a gamble and has neither been a flop or a success—so far. If his health continues I like the odds of the latter.
(4) Cruz was having a monster years before his hamstring intervened; that said, he did present an elevated injury risk.
(5) Also down for the count have been Anderson (injuries), Snider (injuries) and Sizemore (demotion). Those losses would kill me in a deep league—injuries have killed me in my 12-team AL roto league. But in a mixed league with 14 owners, the free agent pool is much deeper. The shallower the league, the more one can withstand colossal failures, and I would think that makes it more justifiable to take risks on draft or auction day.
(6) Drafting closers is a bit like playing chicken—I held off as long as I could, waiting while 10 closers were drafted before taking Soriano and 16 before taking Aardsma.
(7) There's little need to take starting pitching earlier when players such as Latos, Sanchez and Matusz are available so late. Certainly Laros and Sanchez in the mid-teens have out-performed two of my three top-10 pitchers in Vasquez and Anderson. And there were plenty of other good arms taken in the mid-teens and still others not drafted at all.
(8) My stars to-date—those who have exceeded expectations—have been Guerrero, Carlos Gonzalez and to a lesser extent Ordonez: Something old, something new and something blue.
(9) Moylan was an accident pick—got to hung up sorting possibilities for that all-important last pick and the clock ran out and my pick was computer-generated.

Transactions


March 31  Drop Moylan       Add Kyle Blanks
April 14  Drop Young        Add Phil Hughes (dropped five days earlier for Delmon Young)
April 27  Drop Cabrera      Add Carlos Zambrano (dropped four days earlier for Doug Fister)
May 3 	  Drop Snider       Add Eric Young
May 15 	  Drop Young        Add Gordon Beckham (dropped three days earlier)
May 16 	  Drop Sizemore     Add Ian Kennedy
May 16	  Drop Blanks       Add Snider
May 16	  Drop Zambrano     Add Mike Stanton 
May 20	  Drop Snider       Add David Freese (dropped three days earlier)
May 23	  Drop Stanton      Add Kosuke Fukudome (dropped three days earlier)
June 8	  Drop Anderson     Add Snider
June 8	  Drop Fukudome     Add Brett Cecil
June 8	  Drop Snider       Add John Axford
June 9	  Drop Beckham      Add Skip Schumaker (dropped 19 days earlier)
June 10	  Drop Borbon       Add Juan Pierre

Transaction analysis


(1) Best pick-ups have been Hughes and Kennedy and I'm hopeful Cecil will continue to pitch well. Only Hughes was drafted and he was dropped early, which reinforces my view that you can wait to draft pitchers.
(2) My schedule is too busy to be the first to nab a player just called up or returning from the disabled list, so I try to compensate by anticipating, but not too successfully so far—I took Stanton too soon, then dropped him.
(3) One team's trash is another's treasure: Six of my signings have been of cast-offs.

Trades


None.

Trade analysis


There has only been single trade in what is a start-up league with another nixed by owners. I have yet to be approached with a trade proposal; I have made several offers but to no avail.

Bottom line


I've made a lot of mistakes but fewer than my rivals—as of Sunday night my team was in first place with 104 points, the second-place team was at 98.5 and one other team was above 90. I lead the league in only one category—RBI—so my success has been predicated on a lack of a major weakness: I'm in the top half of every category. Many categories are tight, especially wins and runs, so I have added starting pitchers and Pierre. Our league has a maximum cap on innings above which cumulative stats don't count, but so far I'm on pace to reach but not exceed the cap.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jonathan Sher 2010-06-14T10:40:15+00:00 Unifying theory of quants and quaints http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/unifying-theory-of-quants-and-quaints/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/unifying-theory-of-quants-and-quaints/#When:09:20:15
I say "seeming" debate deliberately. For it seems to me in the universe of fantasy baseball, those who speak for quants and quaints, at least in the CardRunners league, share something fundamental in common that separates them from most fantasy baseball players.

For most, fantasy baseball is all about the focus inwards—how do I place a value on a player? Some do so flying by the seat of their pants while a growing number make use of projections by major sites such as ESPN and Yahoo that have become some rampant, but however they do it—whatever their means—the goal is to come up with a valuing or ranking method that will be their rudder through an auction or draft.

What most don't do is consider the marketplace and gamesmanship in their own league. For them, competing in an auction or draft is more akin to blackjack than to poker: Create some rules about when to hit and when to hold and try to follow them. When these players deviate from their rules, it's not because of what other players are doing but because of a sense of panic or euphoria about their own methods—they've lost hitting on 13 three hands in a row, so on the fourth hand at 13 they hold.

It is in that context that I read (OK, skim, not much time this week) the debate in the CardRunners League between quants like our own Derek Carty and quaints such as Christopher Liss. Consider, then, what each said about what I think is core to their approach to a fantasy baseball auctions:

Derek Carty: "I’ve been playing fantasy baseball at the higher levels for just two years, giving the other fantasy guys in this league exponentially more experience than me. I don’t view this as a disadvantage, though.  I view it as an opportunity to distance myself from some of the preconceived notions my fellow fantasy analysts may have, from the groupthink they may unwittingly be involved in, and from the habits they may have slowly and unknowingly developed over the years."

Christopher Liss: "But I’m largely a 'genius' drafter. I make my money on targeting or avoiding players who the market (the consensus expert site projections) has gotten wrong. My method is to pay the vig and beat the house anyway."

What strikes me about their approach is the similarity—they both focus outward on the other players in their league and seek to take advantage of the others' tendencies. It is not enough to come up with a ranking or value in a cave with nothing to guide them but their intuition or mass-produced projections. Both Derek and Christopher understand that to gain the upper hand on opponents, one must also spend much time evaluating the methods used by others.

Think of a poker table. It is useful to know the odds that your flush will take the pot. But your decision is lacking if you don't know the tendencies of the other players.

The best fantasy players know the rivals in their own league and use that information in preparing for their auction or draft (and continue to use it the balance of the season in trades and other roster moves). That is what both Derek and Christopher are pursuing—and it means their approaches share something critical that sets them apart from most.

I have tried, though not yet with great success, to use this approach in an Italian card game called Scopa—I was introduced to the game by my father-in-law. He's played the game since childhood and has a great memory—he's essentially a card counter. I hate rote memorization, so my skills as a card counter are minimal. So to gain an edge, or at least to try to gain an edge, I study his tendencies. That leaves him shaking his head sometimes because it means I play cards that are at odds with conventional strategy.

But in card play or fantasy baseball, it's all about gaining a edge. That's what Derek did when he joined expert leagues filled with rivals who had played many years. That's what Christopher did when he joined a fantasy league half-filled with stat and projection experts. To gain an edge, you must know your rivals. And whether you attack this challenge as a quaint or a quant, chances are you will be taking more than your fair share of the pot at season's end.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jonathan Sher 2010-06-07T09:20:15+00:00 Kidney stones and broken bones: Is there a paramedic in the house? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/kidney-stones-and-broken-bones-is-there-a-paramedic-in-the-house/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/kidney-stones-and-broken-bones-is-there-a-paramedic-in-the-house/#When:09:31:15
The following activities are no longer permitted and will be subject to fines:

(1) Dog-piling hitters of walk-off home runs. The proper etiquette will henceforth be to compose thank you notes in the clubhouse. You are not to write the notes yourself—the risk of puncture wounds and lead poisoning is too great. A stenographer will be made available for your use. You are not to handle the notes in any way lest you be felled by a paper cut.

(2) Do not, under any circumstances, play in the vicinity of Jhonny Peralta. Should the need arise for Peralta to play third base, our infield configuration shall be as follows: Stand behind the concrete barrier we have erected in the far rightfield corner behind the armed guards. You may notice our outfielders there already. You can't be too careful.

(3) These foods will be avoided because of their high quantity of oxalate: Rhubarb, spinach, beets, swiss chard and wheat germ. All have been known to hang out with unscrupulous metal ions, in particular, calcium. The following expression will no longer be tolerated in the dugout: He's got stones.

The Ebbets Fielders Management reminds our players we have an obligation to our fans and more importantly our shareholders to minimize the risk of injury. Only less-risky behavior will be tolerated on the field. You are still permitted to run into walls, hang out with Canadian doctors and eat from the concession stand behind third base where the hot dogs have been under a heat lamp since 1934. You may even block a baserunner in anticipation of a collision at home plate. Unless your name is Kelly Shoppach.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You know your fantasy baseball team is in trouble when you must point to J.D. Drew as the model for good health. Among my Ebbets Fielders in my American League-only roto league, Drew has the sixth-most at-bats.

But it's not the injuries themselves that have been so aggravating, so I tell myself. It's the nature of the injuries. My team, two years in the making in a keeper league, has endured a series of mishaps I simply couldn't anticipate:

(1) Mike Cameron had played at least 140 games in 10 of the past 12 seasons. While I knew he had a string tendency to strikeouts and low batting averages, his health, even at age 37, was not a big concern. Then again, I never consulted a urologist. Damn those kidney stones.

(2) Asdrubal Cabrera normally plays shortstop but was on the first-base side of second base in a defensive shift when Hank Blalock hit a ball up the middle. Cabrera made a diving stop, no doubt the picture of grace, when Peralta, all 210 pounds of him, decided he couldn't stop his own momentum any other way than to find a gentle landing spot for his considerable girth, namely Cabrera's left arm.

(3) I really thought Cabrera was the low point when it came to unforeseen injuries. Then Kendry Morales' teammates did to him what Cuba could not: Disable the slugger. It may have only taken Peralta to take out Cabrera, but Morales is a bigger man so it took his entire team celebrating at home plate. Morales leaped through the mob and landed awkwardly on the one hard surface between him and the dugout. No, not Mike Scioscia's head. Home plate.

After the Morales mishap, Scioscia's issued an edict not unlike mine: "It's happened before in baseball. It's not going to happen again here. We need to do a better job than to get hurt in a dogpile scenario celebrating a win."

Asked the following day what his new guidelines were, Scioscia said, "Any other way than the way we did yesterday."

There's not much you can do as a fantasy owner to avoid the unexpected. I entered this season with a core of keepers who were all young and healthy, guys like Morales, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo, Matt Wieters and Elvis Andrus. At our auction I mostly avoided injury risks, Drew being an exception. I had such a surplus of value among my keepers I could afford to play it safe.

Two months later, the only team in my league with as many injuries is one whose starting staff was anchored by Justin Duchscherer and Brandon Morrow.

I haven't felt this unlucky since I was 16 and I bet the max in a friendly card game called acey-deucey whose object is two draw a card that falls between two cards already on the table. The best odds are when the cards on the table are an ace and a two and I got that hand twice in-a-row, something that happens once over 2,500 times or so. The odds of losing one such hand is 12%, the odds of losing both 1.4% or just slightly more than my odds at the time of me landing a date with the opposite sex rather than a night of poker with the boys. I overcame those odds, with acey-deucey that is, losing both hands. I eventually overcame the odds with the opposite sex too, though it would take another 12 years to convince one to marry me.

I don't have 12 years to wait for my luck to even out in fantasy baseball. I had what I thought was the best team in my league, and even with the injuries to Shoppach, Cameron and Cabrera, I was in first place and still the marginal favorite. Morales may be a game-changer.

I'm not hanging the cleats just yet. Cameron is back, Shoppach will be soon and Cabrera will likely return after the all-star break—I hate that word: Make that the all-star intermission. But my primary league is suddenly more challenging and complex. A week ago all I really wanted was another starting pitcher and I had some excess starters and prospects to rope in someone good. Morales' loss, likely until September, hurts me in three of four categories in our old-fashioned 4x4 league. I may have to bite the bullet on pitching, hope Max Scherzer is truly rejuvenated, and go after a hitter instead.

This alone I know: If me teams manages to win, come October, I will keep celebrations to a minimum.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jonathan Sher 2010-06-01T09:31:15+00:00 Necessity is the mother of genius and beer leagues http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/necessity-is-the-mother-of-genius-and-beer-leagues/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/necessity-is-the-mother-of-genius-and-beer-leagues/#When:10:34:15 Mike Aviles had been up a week with the Kansas City Royals and had started twice, seven games apart. He was 27, too old for a prospect. He had been repeating his third stint at Triple-A when manager Trey Hillman called him up to bat ninth May 29, 2008. Aviles responded by going 0-for-3 with a strikeout. The next six games Aviles sat on the bench, watching as Tony F. Pena, Esteban German and Alberto Callaspo took turns at shortstop.

On June 6, I compiled my list of players I would bid on that day in our monthly free agent auction. With $100 to spend all year, I cast my net widely and cheaply. I targeted a couple of power arms in bullpens, Grant Balfour and Jose Arrendondo. I picked up prospects who had gone undrafted in auction day: Michael Saunders, Peter Bourjos, Ryan Perry and Trevor Cahill. I picked up South Carolina Gamecock Justin Smoak before the major league draft. And I picked up Aviles, a guy no one in my league had heard of, and just to be sure I got him, I bid $2.

The night of our free agent auction, Mike Aviles had started for the second time in a week, picking up two hits in three at-bats and scoring a run. It would be July before Hillman would declare him the starting shortstop for the remainder of the season. I'd love to say I saw that coming. But the truth is, while I thought he might hit if given the chance, that was not the primary reason I bid on Aviles. No, my primary motivation was something altogether different and something any Royals fan could relate to.

Tony F. Pena Jr. was my starting fantasy shortstop.

Pena was hitting .155 as of the end of the day June 6. It was an empty .155: He had six walks on the season, two of those intentional, and none since May 5; five extra-base hits and no home runs. In short, he was hitting like a pitcher, a condition that would prove prophetic.

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, in the matter of how the heck I ended up with Pena in the first place, I plead temporary insanity. I had earlier that year inherited a fantasy club called the Brady Bunch that had never finished in the money and whose roster was devoid of any semblance of a well-valued hitter. Pena had hit .267 with 47 RBIs the previous year, his first full season in the majors, and with a salary of only $1, he seemed a capable third middle infielder so I made him a—shudder—keeper. And if you don't buy that excuse, please allow me to give each of you an envelope on which you will write your name and address. My assistant will be collecting the envelopes—she's the one with the fat checkbook. What's that, your honor, what am I doing? Creating reasonable doubt.

Back to June 6, 2008. I was desperate to replace Pena in my lineup. More importantly, I knew—no, I felt—how desperate Hillman was to replace Pena in his lineup. Back then, amazing as it seems, the Royals were seen as up-and-comers. In 2007, they had won 13 more games than they had in 2005. Alex Gordon was not yet a synonym for prospect bust. Gil Meche could still throw. Mediocrity was around the corner. And Pena was standing in the way.

That's why I picked up Aviles. I knew that even a 27-year-old non-prospect would get a chance to play. And even if he did not, a dead spot in my lineup would be a relief after two months of Pena.

That experience reinforced a lesson I try to follow: Get in the head of every manager and general manager in major league baseball. Trust me, in the case of Hillman and a number of others, there's lots of room.

So where should you be looking in 2010? Start with Seattle, where a slow 11-19 start and an abysmal offense led the Mariners hierarchy on Sunday to fire hitting coach Alan Cockrell. General Manager Jack Zduriencik expects to win this year. Milton Bradley has been relegated to playing board games and Eric Byrnes to playing softball in Menlo Park, Calif., for a team sponsored by a local bar, The Dutch Goose. Left field is there for the taking, so much so there's an audition for a prospect who opened to bad reviews last year and struggled this year at Triple-A, Michael Saunders.

There is much to like and dislike about Saunders. He's shown flashes of power and speed, is a superior athlete, has long been regarded a strong prospect and he grew up in a hockey town, which is just the sort of guy you want around to liven up the occasional baseball brawl. He also has never fully realized his power or speed potential and has struggled, at times, with plate discipline. In one way he is the anti-Aviles, who was all production, no potential.

Aviles was drafted the seventh round of the 2003 MLB draft and signed to a whopping $1,000 bonus—the Royals, to save money, drafted five college seniors that year in rounds five through nine and signed them to $1,000 bonuses. Scouts doubted he could stick at shortstop and he was too old and too short to be taken seriously. He hit well in all but one minor league season but was stuck at Triple-A and destined to be a utility infielder until fate and Pena intervened.

I may like the Oakland As Michael Taylor or the Tampa Bay Rays' Desmond Jennings more, but Saunders has one trait the other two lack for now: An organization desperate to find an outfielder who can hit his weight.

The pitching parallel right now can be found in Baltimore, where Orioles manager Dave Tremblay has seen Jim Johnson fall by the wayside. Alfredo Simon has gotten he early saves but a dark horse is Koji Uehara.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Jonathan Sher 2010-05-11T10:34:15+00:00