http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-23T08:50:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-8-vol.-1/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-8-vol.-1/#When:07:08:15 Denard Span and Will Venable have done basically nothing in the days since we had them on the waiver wire, though I remain optimistic that both will see their ownership levels rise as the next few weeks unfold. Meanwhile, our old friend Patrick Corbin continues his ridiculously hot start to the season, even if a major market correction looms, while Yonder Alonso has seen his ownership levels droop slightly despite maintaining a decent batting average.

But that’s in the past. Let’s talk about some fresh faces as we kick off Week 8 on the waiver wire.

David Phelps | New York Yankees | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership; 4 percent ESPN; 38 percent CBS
YTD: 42.1 IP / 3.64 FIP / 9.78 K/9 / 3.83 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 134 IP / 4.06 FIP / 8.33 K/9 / 3.45 BB/9

Every team should be as fortunate to have a Phelps among its pitching corps, and no, I’m not being facetious. Having aided the team’s October run late last summer, Phelps, 26, now finds himself a member of the starting rotation, having posted a 1-1 record with a 2.84 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over four starts. On Saturday, Phelps neutralized the (albeit struggling) Blue Jays, allowing just one earned run over seven strong innings.

That performance continued what’s been a strong major league career so far for Phelps, who’s been a strikeout-per-inning pitcher since his debut last year and has been stingy yielding free passes throughout his professional tenure.

Granted, his current strikeout penchant is not supported by an ability to generate swinging strikes, which portends a drop there, and the career 4.12 FIP is probably closer to Phelps’ future as a back-of-the-rotation guy rather than the savior he’s been over his past few outings. But why carp? A guy who can pitch competently on a first-place team is a no-brainer add in mixed leagues, right?

Not so fast, because the question about Phelps’ fantasy value has less to do with his ability to be a decent major league starter than it does whether he’s the best option at the Yankees’ disposal when Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda get back.

We’ll start with Nova, who looked primed to return last week from a triceps injury, only to suffer a setback with an injury to his side during an extended spring training game, and it’s currently unclear when he’ll return to active duty.

Pineda, of course, is still recovering from that awful labrum injury he suffered last year, and although he’s throwing again (and reportedly hit 95 mph on the radar gun earlier this month), the Yankees don’t expect him back until mid-June at the earliest.

Long story short, neither Nova or Pineda is coming back soon enough to prevent Phelps from making at least a few more starts, and frankly, their return might not be enough to squeeze him out of the rotation anyway. We’ll find out for sure as they get healthy, but in the meantime, I think Phelps will provide solid fantasy help across the board, making him a worthy pickup in deeper leagues.

Recommendation: Can contribute in standard mixed leagues.

Jake Odorizzi | Tampa Bay Rays | SP | 7 percent Yahoo ownership; .1 percent ESPN; 24 percent CBS
YTD: N/A
ZiPS updated: N/A

The fantasy world held its breath last week when Rays ace and reigning Cy Young Award winner David Price went down with what’s being described as a right triceps injury. On the surface, that doesn’t sound too bad, but his fastball had lost velocity from last year, and there’s speculation that the company line is merely a cover for a far more serious ailment. Time will ultimately tell, but in the meantime, it’s probably prudent to wave bye-bye to Price for at least the next few weeks.

In his place comes 23-year-old Odorizzi, a key part of both the 2010 trade that sent Zack Greinke to Milwaukee and the offseason James Shields/Wil Myers deal last year. Boasting a fastball, curve, slider and changeup, Odorizzi appeared on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list in each of the past three years, and came up for two starts last year in Kansas City.

He’s considered a good, not great, prospect, though he was off to a nice start in Triple-A this year, posting a 4-0 record over eight starts with a 3.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a 9.5 K/9. A former first-round draft pick, Odorizzi seems primed for a solid major league career, even if his ceiling has more in common with a mid-rotation role than an ace’s responsibility.

That being said, it seems he’ll have an opportunity to make his mark as Joe Maddon says Odorizzi will gobble up Price’s starts while he’s on the shelf. In Week 8, that makes him a two-start option as Odorizzi prepares to face the hapless Blue Jays in Toronto this afternoon, and, barring disaster, the Yankees at home on Sunday.

Those aren’t impossible matchups for the neophyte, but they’re not exactly charitable foes, either, so while I’m interested to see how Odorizzi does this week, I’m not sure a sense of urgency surrounds him outside of the deepest mixed leagues in which his two starts are absolutely necessary.

Recommendation: Pass in mixed leagues until he pads his resume.

Raul Ibanez | Seattle Mariners | OF/DH | 8 percent Yahoo ownership; 8 percent ESPN; 12 percent CBS
YTD: 94 PA / .236 / .277 / .562 with 8 HR and 0 SB
ZiPS updated: 404 PA / .237 / .287 / .456 with 20 HR and 1 SB

By the time May dawned, the soon-to-be 41-year-old Ibanez, hitting just .158 at the time, was a fantasy corpse, an afterthought in all but the deepest AL-only leagues. But as the weather heated up, so did Ibanez’s bat, and after helping the Mariners tie up Saturday’s game with a home run against the Indians’ Chris Perez, Ibanez has suddenly seen his ownership pick up thanks to a month that, entering Sunday’s action, had him bashing to a .375 average with six home runs and a ridiculous 1.425 OPS.

Anyone who tuned in to the ALDS between the Yankees and Orioles knows that Ibanez still can provide help on a baseball diamond, and he managed to hammer 19 home runs with 62 RBIs last year. But while the past few weeks have reminded us that Ibanez can still provide fantasy help, it’s important to remember that he’s basically a platoon player in Seattle, splitting time with Jason Bay.

In Week 8, the Mariners will face no fewer than three lefties (Scott Kazmir, C.J. Wilson and Derek Holland), which more or less neutralizes Ibanez's bat fantasy-wise in the immediate future. Players like Ibanez are definitely useful while they’re hot, and I have nothing against salvaging old parts to help the fantasy war effort (right, Travis Hafner?). But I’m going to pass on picking him up right now.

Recommendation: Strictly AL-only league material.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Karl de Vries 2013-05-20T07:08:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-7-vol.-ii/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-7-vol.-ii/#When:07:08:15 Andrew Bailey isn’t as close to returning as I may have thought late last week, giving Junichi Tazawa a more lengthy look at the closer’s job in Boston. Problem is, he’s been somewhat terrible since inheriting the job, leading to speculation that a closer platoon with him and Koji Uehara might be possible. Meanwhile, Heath Bell has settled in as the D-Backs closer, though a blown save last week reminded us that he’s hardly a lock for 25-30 saves the rest of the way.

Going even further back in this column’s 2013 track record, Aaron Hicks belted two homers the other day against the White Sox, though that just soothes my ego after the collapse of Jake Westbrook’s fantasy value and Felix Doubront’s recent problems.

But if you wanted to talk about last week’s column, you’d be reading it, wouldn’t you? Let’s look at some new blood.

Will Venable | San Diego Padres | OF | 11 percent Yahoo ownership; 7.6 percent ESPN; 20 percent CBS
YTD: 106 PA / .247 / .327 / .452 with 5 HR and 7 SB
ZiPS updated: 479 PA / .246 / .319 / .421 with 15 HR and 25 SB

Twitter pal Lee Wilson on Friday asked me for my quick thoughts on Venable vs. Craig Gentry and Jordan Schafer. After a quick eyeballing of the three players’ stats, I favored Venable, based on his more consistent playing time and better speed. But the real reason I like Venable—well, at least to the extent one can like a guy with a career .742 OPS—is his 15.4 percent line drive rate entering Wednesday, which is more than three percentage points below his career average. When that climbs, we’ll see his BABIP creep up toward his career .315 level, which will raise his .247 average.

The good news is that Venable is starting to heat up after hitting just .206 last month. Since May began, he’s hit .360 with three home runs and four steals entering Wednesday’s action. Not coincidentally, that hot streak began just after the Padres regained their best offensive player in Chase Headley and Jedd Gyorko began hitting as well. It’s also been encouraging to see Venable hit .327 at Petco Park—yes, that average is inflated by a lofty BABIP, and we’re just talking about a friggin’ six-week stretch here, but for a guy who’s struggled in San Diego throughout his career, perhaps the moved-in fences are a sign that he’ll begin to play better at home.

The 30-year-old Venable, of course, is hardly a newcomer to fantasy circles, having been a full-time player for the past three years after debuting with the Padres in 2008. He's a left-handed-hitter who remains an extreme platoon player, evidenced by a putrid .580 OPS against southpaws. But despite his familiarity as a not-great-but-not-awful fantasy option and someone who’s averaged 26 steals over the past three years, he’s still available in plenty of leagues. He’s never going to be a must-grab, but a hot hand is a hot hand, and the stolen bases alone give him should merit him consideration in five-outfield leagues.

Recommendation: Pass in standard mixed leagues, but pick him up while he’s hot everywhere else.

Jeff Locke | Pittsburgh Pirates | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership; 8.5 percent ESPN; 44 percent CBS
YTD: 39.2 IP / 4.88 FIP / 4.99 K/9 / 4.31 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 154 IP / 4.61 FIP / 6.05 K/9 / 3.92 BB/9

When I saw the southpaw’s CBS ownership jump by more than 20 points in the past week, I figured he was ripe for a spin in the waiver wire. After all, Pittsburgh is about as good a place to stay anonymous as there is in baseball, and perhaps this guy is the real deal looking for just a little positive PR to get his ownership going.

Locke, 25, was drafted in the second round by the Braves in 2006, and was traded, along with two other players, in the 2009 deal between Atlanta and Pittsburgh for Nate McLouth. In the minors, Locke pitched well, compiling a better than 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, a fine 1.26 WHIP and an ability to get strikeouts. Armed with a fastball that doesn’t zoom beyond the low-90s, the Princeton grad was never tabbed as a spectacular prospect, but is expected to hang around the majors as a back-of-the-rotation hurler on a good team.

So what explains the jump in his ownership? Well, a 2.95 ERA certainly doesn’t scare away prospective fantasy owners, and a 3-1 record in seven starts isn’t half bad. Unfortunately, that’s where the good news ends. Want proof? Take your pick: A 4.84 xFIP. A crazy 81.5 percent strand rate. A 21 percent balls in play average. A 7.1 swinging strike rate. Yeah, seven starts is not a gigantic sample size, but it’s not a trend that portends a happy ending, either.

I’m not here to discredit Locke as a big leaguer or wish a pox upon his house, and if he can continue to pound the strike zone and limit walks, I don’t think a 4 ERA with a 6 K/9 is impossible by the time 2013 is over. But a market correction is right around the corner, and when that happens, you’ll want to be someplace else, preferably wearing a helmet while nestled in a concrete bunker.

Recommendation: Stay away in mixed leagues.

Denard Span | Washington Nationals | OF | 19 percent Yahoo ownership; 23.9 percent ESPN; 56 percent CBS
YTD: 151 PA / .277 / .344 / .350 with 0 HR and 5 SB
ZiPS updated: 595 PA / .275 / .335 / .369 with 3 HR and 18 SB

Can I ask a dumb question? Why is the leadoff hitter on arguably the best team in the National League hanging around the waiver wire in so many leagues? What’s wrong with a guy who steals bases, scores runs and posts a decent batting average?

Well, past history, for starters: Fantasy owners went ga-ga over Span’s 97 runs, .311 average and 10.4 percent walk rate back in 2009. But they then watched with abject disappointment as his on-base percentage collapsed in subsequent years, a situation compounded by a nasty concussion he suffered in 2011 and a shoulder injury last year that limited him to 128 games. Even after a 3.6 WAR season last year, his wOBA was off by more than 30 points from his 2009 season, and his stock entering 2013 was nowhere near what it was back in his salad days.

Then there’s the dearth of power. We’re talking about just 23 home runs over more than 2,800 career plate appearances (none so far this year) and despite once leading the league in triples, his career ISO barely breaks .100. For Span to be considered a mixed-league outfielder, he needs to keep up his production in his three categories to offset the damage he’ll do to an owner’s batting average and home runs.

So far this year, I’d say the results are mixed. His on-base percentage is acceptable but not ideal, as is his stolen base total, the byproduct of just six attempts. Span’s also suffering from a nasty 19.2 percent infield flyball rate, which will come back down to earth soon enough, and a 14.6 percent strikeout rate that stands to regress back to his career average. As for his health, he had appeared in all but three of the Nationals’ games entering this season, so there’s little reason to believe he’s not 100 percent.

And therein lies the key to Span’s fantasy value: Staying on the field. Assuming a baseline batting average of .280, he could very well produce 90 runs hitting atop a lineup that will produce better as the season unfolds, and I don’t think a return to 20 stolen bases is out of the question. I realize Span, a solid defender, is much more valuable in real life than in fantasy, and in a perfect world, an owner would prefer a more well-rounded stolen base producer than him. But Span does enough things well to justify a hike in his ownership levels, and as the summer progresses, I think that will happen.

Recommendation: It’s time to think about Span in standard mixed leagues again.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Karl de Vries 2013-05-15T07:08:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-6-vol.-iii/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-6-vol.-iii/#When:06:17:15 Scott Kazmir, who slammed the door on Oakland in a 10-strikeout performance yesterday. Obviously, he’s already starting to gain traction in mixed leagues, as is Dee Gordon, who was hitting above .300 since his call-up last week. Meanwhile, I’ll choose to look down at the ground and rub my neck as I mention the likes of Lucas Harrell and Jose Quintana, neither of whom have impressed all that much since making cameo appearances on the wire. I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention how Jack Weiland, my waiver wire wingman, somewhat courageously suggested that John Lackey could once again be useful in mixed leagues, evidenced by three decent starts entering Thursday’s action.

Today, we’ll take a look at two troubled bullpens in Boston and Arizona as we mine for fantasy gold. In both cases, my column is a couple of days behind the ball, but surely some of these guys are still available in enough leagues as we near the beginning of Week 7, so let’s get started.

Junichi Tazawa | RP | Boston Red Sox | 50 percent Yahoo ownership; 55.8 percent ESPN; 35 percent CBS
YTD: 15.1 IP / 2.98 FIP / 11.15 K/9 / 1.76 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 78 IP / 3.45 FIP / 9.19 K/9 / 2.91 BB/9

Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan hit the DL this week within three days of each other, plunging the Red Sox’ rotation into a crisis. The bullpen’s depth zapped, the Red Sox have deployed Tazawa, 26, as the team’s closer, a role he’ll retain at least heading into the upcoming week.

Bailey, 28, who excelled in the role in his brief time at the closer’s helm, is ailing from sore right biceps he suffered late last month, and on Monday, he was retroactively placed on the DL. Meanwhile, Hanrahan hit the disabled list on Wednesday with a forearm strain after he “just couldn’t take it anymore” two days earlier in a blown save against the Twins. Although an early MRI showed no structural damage in Hanrahan’s elbow, the team moved him to the 60-day DL yesterday, and even if he doesn’t undergo surgery, it’s clear that his fantasy value has been nuked for much of 2013, making him droppable across the board.

From a fantasy perspective, it’s a bit unfortunate that Tazawa is stuck behind two established closers in the Red Sox’ bullpen, because his credentials at the age of 26 are nice to look at: 8.31 K/9 and a 1.87 walk rate, a career 3.23 FIP in 86.2 innings and a strong ability to strand runners. This year, he’s off to an even better start, and has seen his average fastball velocity tick up to 93 mph, though he does have two blown saves among his 16 appearances.

Unless Bailey’s injury is more catastrophic than was originally let on, there’s no chance we’re looking at a new long-term closer change right now, despite Tazawa’s appeal. Heck, Bailey is due to come back on Tuesday, so Tazawa might not even have that much value for owners in weekly leagues looking to pick up some cheap saves in Week 7. We’ll keep an eye on Bailey’s progress (and whether he'll need a rehab assignment early next week), and with Hanrahan gone, Tazawa is now the logical No. 2 man in Boston’s bullpen. Considering the Jersey boy's own vulnerability, a future scenario where Tazawa gets another chance to step up in 2013 is not inconceivable.

Recommendation: Green light in all leagues until Bailey’s return.

Heath Bell | Arizona Diamondbacks | RP | 40 percent Yahoo ownership; 35.8 percent ESPN; 31 percent CBS
YTD: 14.1 IP / 2.64 FIP / 12.56 K/9 / 1.88 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 62.3 IP / 3.10 FIP / 9.67 K/9 / 2.89 BB/9

David Hernandez | Arizona Diamondbacks | RP | 19 percent Yahoo ownership; 11.5 percent ESPN; 18 percent CBS
YTD: 15.2 IP / 5.79 FIP / 9.19 K/9 / 4.60 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 68.2 IP / 3.70 FIP / 10.75 K/9 / 3.93 BB/9

It’s been a good run in Arizona for J.J. Putz, who’s been a top fantasy earner for the past two seasons. But those days seem to be quickly nearing an end, as the right-hander is plagued by a right elbow strain. For a guy who’s gotten positively abused so far in 2013 (four blown saves in nine chances and a 1.58 WHIP), this news sounds not the least bit ominous, and Putz owners need to untangle themselves from the 36-year-old’s immediate future right away.

That could set up a classic closer battle in Arizona, featuring an experienced name player in Bell and a top set up man in Hernandez, both of whom are qualified for the job.

We’ll start with Bell, whom manager Kirk Gibson said on Wednesday would get first dibs at the ninth inning, proving it by letting him earn the save that night against the Dodgers. Still, despite averaging 38 saves over the past four seasons and being considered a top reliever on the free agent market just 18 months ago, Bell hardly steps up immediately as a set-him-and-forget-him closer option, not after he was demoted by the Marlins last year following a nightmarish first half. In 2013, Bell’s slightly diminished fastball velocity might be responsible for what’s been a bad 29.7 percent line drive rate, which in turn is manifested in an unsightly .417 BABIP. At the same time, however, I’m encouraged by a 9.2 swinging strike rate and the 12.56 K/9 it’s produced, especially in contrast to a 1.88 BB/9, even if it’s necessary to acknowledge what’s just a 15-appearance sample size.

But since we won’t know for a while if Bell can fully regain the magic of his Padres days, we might as well familiarize himself with Hernandez, Arizona’s eighth-inning guardian. With a combined a 2.94 ERA, 11.4 K/9 and 1.08 WHIP between 2011 and 2012, Hernandez, who turns 28 on Monday, established himself as one of the National League’s best setup men entering the year. But it’s been a rough start to 2013 for him so far, and with Gibson clearly preferring Bell’s experience, Hernandez is merely a handcuff option in fantasy until the ex-Padre falters.

Recommendation: Add Bell across the board while keeping an eye on Hernandez.

Kelly Johnson | Tampa Bay Rays | 2B | 24 percent Yahoo ownership; 33 percent ESPN; 44 percent CBS
YTD: 105 PA / .283 / .362 / .489 with 5 HR and 4 SB
ZiPS updated: 559 PA / .239 / .325 / .409 with 19 HR and 14 SB

Back in the good old days of early 2011, Johnson ranked among the top second basemen to target in fantasy, coming off a .866 OPS season that was padded with 26 homers and 13 steals. Unfortunately, the batting average took a nosedive in the next two seasons, and by the time 2013 dawned, the 31-year-old had dipped below the radar screens of many mixed league owners.

But as we embark to enter Week 7, we applaud Johnson’s .283 average and 138 wRC+, because not only are those numbers solid, but they’re even more valuable as a middle infielder. Too bad they’re largely the byproduct of a BABIP surge (.339 entering Thursday’s action) and a generous HR/FB rate that is out of character for an eight-year veteran. It’d be nice to believe that Johnson’s bat has suddenly been invigorated with some kind of magic power, but a 15 percent line drive rate is nothing to write home about, especially as his strikeout rate remains stuck at nearly 25 percent.

Obviously, a second baseman with pop will find a home in large pockets of fantasy baseball, and in Johnson’s case, his outfield eligibility will make him even more attractive. But his value will take a dive once his batting average comes back down to earth, and with hurlers like Jon Lester, Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen lined up in Week 7, that decline might get started in the very near future.

Recommendation: I’m passing in mixed leagues unless someone I care about gets hurt.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Karl de Vries 2013-05-10T06:17:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-6-vol.-i/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-6-vol.-i/#When:07:03:15 Nolan Arenado was a fantasy neophyte looking to establish himself in the vocabulary of casual fans, but that was before he cranked out two home runs, including a grand slam. Brian Dozier, still the Twins’ primary leadoff hitter for the time being, has yet to establish himself as a regular fantasy play, though Justin Grimm posted nine strikeouts in a start against the White Sox on Thursday night.

Speaking of waiver wire alumni, Garrett Richards lost his rotation spot to Jerome Williams, Andrew Cashner’s control issues surfaced in a bad start against the Cubs, and Aaron Hicks actually hit a home run in Week 5, even though he continues to struggle to keep his head above water at the big league level.

But you didn’t come here to read about yesterday’s mashed potatoes. Let’s get to work dissecting some new guests on today’s waiver wire column.

Scott Kazmir | Cleveland Indians | SP | 2 percent Yahoo ownership; .3 percent ESPN; 6 percent CBS
YTD: 14.1 IP / 5.79 FIP / 9.42 K/9 / 3.77 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 64.3 IP / 5.72 FIP / 7.13 K/9 / 4.48 BB/9

Ah, 2007. Motorola’s RAZR was the hot cell phone to own. Rudy Giuliani was the odds-on favorite to represent the Republican Party in the upcoming presidential race, where he was sure to face Hillary Clinton. The Mets? They were actually good—well, good if you subtract the last 17 games of the season.

But it was also a season in which a young phenom named Scott Kazmir ran the table in the American League, leading the pack with 239 punchouts while compiling a tasty 5.1 WAR. For the 23-year-old, the future couldn’t look brighter, as the ace so many thought the Mets gave away in the Victor “10 minutes to glory” Zambrano trade made his bones among Major League Baseball’s best.

Unfortunately, the baseball gods would have no part of it, banishing Kazmir to an odyssey of arm problems that destroyed his former ace-like ceiling. He made just one start in 2011, none in 2012, and by the time we ushered in 2013, he had gone from being a former strikeout king to a fantasy oversight.

But then came the invitation to Indians’ spring training. Kazmir, now 29, pitched well enough in 13 innings, and with some help from the Indians’ reluctance to start the year with Trevor Bauer at the big league level, snuck into Cleveland’s rotation, though a strained rib cage delayed his debut until April 20, when he got vaporized by the Astros.

Still, Kazmir has turned in two decent starts since, including a six-inning, two-run job on Saturday against the Twins. Yeah, they’re the Twins, but I’ll take seven strikeouts any day, whomever they’re against, and a player who has a strikeout title on his resume should forever deserve some respect.

With Kazmir, two things really matter: his health, of course, and the zip on his fastball, which is not unrelated to his health. The good news is that through his three starts, Kazmir’s average fastball velocity, as per FanGraphs, is 91.7 mph, and overall, he’s earning a 9.9 SwStr percentage, both of which are his best since 2008.

Obviously, we’re dealing with a microscopic sample size, but it’s certainly a step in the right direction, especially when you consider peripherals like a BABIP (.350) and HR/FB rate (18.2 percent) that won’t suck so much once he adds a few more starts to his season.

Kazmir, that super prospect from Mets days of yore, is a pitcher I’d like to see succeed, so maybe I’m reading too much into two weeks’ worth of performance while ignoring the shrieking reality that Kazmir could (will?) get injured again. It’s also hard to ignore Bauer’s looming presence, as he’s sure to get a tour in the Indians’ rotation at some point this year, which would squeeze out either Kazmir or Corey Kluber.

But it’s time to get back to considering Kazmir as a potentially viable fantasy baseball starter, a former phenom still chasing that upside as he looks to make good on the promise of yesteryear.

Recommendation: I want to see one more good start. Then I’m going to add him in deeper mixed leagues with the intent of using him as a match-up guy.

Dee Gordon | Los Angeles Dodgers | SS | 13 percent Yahoo ownership; 7.4 percent ESPN; 22 percent CBS
YTD: 5 PA / .500 / .600 / 1.000 with 0 HR and 2 SB
ZiPS updated: 176 PA / .253 / .301 / .323 with 1 HR and 14 SB

If cynicism is a disease, then consider me a terminal case. Example: When I saw Hanley Ramirez limp off the field with the help of trainers on Friday, I didn’t think about his career, his pain, his family, or the rest of his 2013 season because, hey, I don’t own him in any of my leagues, so why should I care? He’s an often-cranky multimillionaire who gets paid to play a children’s game, and in a country where millions of people are out of work and the desperate among us eat out of trash cans for subsistence, I’ll choose to donate my concern elsewhere.

But because it was immediately clear that HanRam and his strained left hamstring will be gone for at least several weeks, I, like a vulture waiting for its prey to gasp its last breath, immediately wondered whether a replacement, blessed with steady playing time, could provide any hidden fantasy value. And as fate would have it, he might.

You remember Gordon, 25, that speedster shortstop who was supposed to provide a fantasy kick in 2012 when he broke camp with the team. Too bad his bat was screamingly inadequate at the plate, as he was only able to compile a .561 OPS in 330 plate appearances, and when you factor in the 18 errors that were second-highest among shortstops last year—in only 79 games, I might add—you saw a raw talent who looked out of his depth in the big leagues.

But let’s get one thing straight: Gordon steals bases. Lots of ‘em. One hundred and ninety-two at the minor league level. Fifty-eight in the majors despite having appeared in just 144 games entering Sunday. That kind of speed, coming from a shortstop, deserves notice in fantasy.

As long as he can hit, of course. Gordon was smacking the ball around to the tune of a .314/.397/.431 line in the Pacific Coast League at the time of his call-up, and he carries a lifetime .303/.357/.390 line over his 1,963 plate appearances in the minors. Gordon also has flashed the makings of a top-of-the-order hitter when you consider a very decent 13.7 percent strikeout rate down on the farm, which goes nicely with an 85 percent contact rate.

Even when he was drowning in Los Angeles last year with a .228 average, Gordon’s 18.8 percent K rate suggested he wasn’t going up to the plate to flail around helplessly. But a solid average in the hitter-friendly PCL does not end the discussion over whether he can produce a better batting average than, say, .260, and a lack of walks is very troubling.

Also, keep an eye on his defense. While it won’t hurt us fantasy folks, abysmal play at the infield’s most critical position could affect his playing time, and with eight errors in 25 Triple-A games, it’s far from clear that he can play a competent shortstop. Fortunately, the bats of shortstop alternatives Justin Sellers and Luis Cruz have been nothing more than putty so far in 2013, and with the Dodgers needing offense, Gordon should get a serious opportunity to play.

I’m not a scout nor a soothsayer, so I don’t know whether Gordon will get on base regularly enough to be a significant fantasy factor in the month or so that he’ll have shortstop all to himself. But I think about Everth Cabrera and his lifetime .657 OPS, which hasn’t prevented many fantasy owners from using him. Obviously, Cabrera has more experience than Gordon and is probably a better player, but it’s not the worst comparison.

The bottom line: Middle infielders who steal bases always will have a place in fantasy, and in deep enough leagues, they typically find themselves on more than a few rosters.

Recommendation: If you need steals and can live with Gordon’s offensive shortcomings and lack of long-term job security, grab him in leagues mixed and otherwise.

Yonder Alonso | San Diego Padres | 1B | 19 percent Yahoo ownership; 21.4 percent ESPN; 65 percent CBS
YTD: 121 PA / .284 / .347 / .450 with 4 HR and 1 SB
ZiPS updated: 608 PA / .270 / .339 / .417 with 15 HR and 6 SB

No, Alonso will never mutate into a 35-home run fantasy wildebeast, and in standard mixed leagues, that hurts his value as a first baseman. But we don’t often look for shallow mixed-league players on the fantasy scrap heap, and if you can get a guy who will help you across the board in deeper leagues without hurting you in any particular area, you count your blessings.

Enter Alonso, 26. A key piece in the Mat Latos trade a couple of years ago, Alonso has proven his ability to take a base without striking out too much, witnessed by a career 16.5 percent strikeout rate against a 9.6 percent walk rate. He’s off to a good start this year, with a solid slash line and four home runs.

Part of what makes Alonso intriguing is his offseason efforts to improve his swing. Working out alongside Alex Rodriguez (a sentence that feels strange to write, let alone read), Alonso watched video and looked to incorporate more power into his swing. That improvement helped lead to five home runs in spring training, and, with four dingers already under his belt, a good bet to double up on last year’s home run total of nine.

Chase Headley is back, Jedd Gyorko’s bat is showing signs of a pulse, and those fences at Petco Park remain moved in. Alonso won’t appear on any fantasy baseball magazine covers heading into next season, but if you believe his ZiPS projections as I do, then you agree he can provide some help at a corner infield spot in many a mixed league.

Recommendation: Not yet a standard mixed-league play, but he should be owned in deeper leagues.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Karl de Vries 2013-05-06T07:03:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-5-vol.-ii/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-5-vol.-ii/#When:07:15:15
Since we last checked in, Andrew Cashner pitched well enough against the Giants to help cement a role in the Padres rotation, Felix Doubront punched out eight en route to a win (though the walks remain an issue), while Lucas Harrell benefited from some heavy hitting Monday against the Yankees to earn a win.

But that was so April. Let's look ahead to May baseball.

Brian Dozier | Minnesota Twins | 2B / SS | 2 percent Yahoo ownership; 1.2 percent ESPN; 13 percent CBS
YTD: 79 PA / .243 / .295 / .314 with 0 HR and 1 SB
ZiPS updated: 607 PA / .246 / .297 / .339 with 6 HR and 12 steals

Remember Aaron Hicks? Sure, you do. He was, after all, tabbed to be fantasy sleeper material as the Twins' center fielder to start the year. But then, a funny thing happened: It turns out he can’t hit big league pitching, at least not yet. So the Twins, under the impression that they have something to play for in 2013, decided to make a lineup switch on April 23, moving second baseman Dozier—hitting a measly .152 at the time—to hit atop the team’s lineup. And whaddya know? Dozier has played much better, compiling a .718 OPS since then. And in deep fantasy leagues, when a guy flashes a hint of competency to go along with dual middle infield eligibility—he appeared in 83 games at shortstop last year—we stop and take a closer look.

Drafted by the Twins in 2009, Dozier, who turns 26 this month, compiled a .298 /.370 /.409 line in 365 minor league games, achieving a 9.5 percent walk rate and a delicious 87 percent contact rate. Obviously, that’s the makings of a guy who doesn’t flail away helplessly at the plate, though it’s fair to ask how much of a fantasy force he’ll be in 2013, when you consider just 16 home runs in the minors and not a ton of stolen bases (though he swiped as many as 24 bags two years ago while shuffling between A+ and Double-A).

There’s also the question of how long he’ll last as the Twins’ primary leadoff hitter, since there are still some of us who cling to hope that Hicks will rebound before a Triple-A demotion occurs. The Twins, of course, always have the option of batting Joe Mauer third, which would allow Dozier to remain at the top of the order.

Dozier doesn’t have a tremendous ceiling, but guys who make contact and can provide decent defense up the middle usually find work at the major league level. It might be too soon to tell whether Dozier can provide immediate help in fantasy, though he’s certainly an interesting player to keep an eye on.

Recommendation: I’ll pass for the moment in standard AL-only leagues, but another good week could change that quickly.

Justin Grimm | Texas Rangers | SP | 12 percent Yahoo ownership; 9.4 percent ESPN; 31 percent CBS
YTD: 17 IP / 2.70 FIP / 7.94 K/9 / 2.12 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 121 IP / 4.81 FIP / 5.73 K/9 / 3.35 BB/9

In the topsy-turvy world of pump-and-dump, pick-em-and-cut-em fantasy baseball dumpster diving, my predictions of lucrative—or poor—returns can sometimes turn out to be completely, utterly off. Isn’t that right, Chris Heisey? I know you agree, Garrett Richards. Oh, Collin Cowgill? Don’t bother responding—you’re dead to me.

But once in awhile, even a stopped clock is right my two cents can have some currency, evidenced by Nick Tepesch, who’s been serviceable, if not solid, in the three starts since he guest-starred on the waiver wire a couple of weeks ago. And since his rotation mate Grimm has suddenly become a hot commodity in fantasy leagues, we might as well see if I can go two for two among Rangers starters.

First things first: Grimm looked to be just a seat warmer a couple of weeks ago when Matt Harrison went on the disabled list with a back injury, but then that injury led to surgery for a herniated disc, zapping Harrison’s presence until midseason. Assuming Grimm can keep it together, it’s fair to presume he’ll have a steady job for at least the next two months, and he’ll have a job well beyond Harrison’s return if he can continue pitching like he has in his first three starts.

Who is Grimm? Plucked by the Rangers in the fifth round of the 2010 draft, the 24-year-old put together a 7.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 over 281 minor league innings, and was able to keep the ball on the ground well enough to avoid a high HR/9 rate, which is obviously a factor given Arlington’s hitter-helpful surroundings. At the major league level, Grimm has been able to maintain those strikeout numbers armed with a low-90s fastball to go along with a curveball and change-up.

As the innings mount, Grimm’s surprising K/9 will fall back down to earth, as will his 1.59 ERA, which is inflated by favorable strand and HR/FB rates. And yes, there’s no question that he’d be valued differently if his fan mail were sent to, say, Petco Park instead of Rangers Ballpark. But with a rotation spot on a good team and a strikeout rate that could very well exceed 6 K/9, I’d say Grimm has modest, if limited, appeal.

Recommendation: Worth picking up in AL-only leagues.

Nolan Arenado | Colorado Rockies | 3B | 42 percent Yahoo ownership; 35 percent ESPN; 62 percent CBS
YTD: 10 PA / .333 / .400 / .667 with 1 HR and 0 SB
ZiPS updated: 116 PA / .280 / .324 / .439 with 14 HR and 1 SB

Forget any questions about his attitude. Forget any concerns about whether he’s too raw to produce steadily in the majors. Instead, just think about the fact that Arenado, ranked 52nd on Baseball America’s Top 100 list, calls Coors Field home and will be the Rockies’ starting third baseman going forward after the team designated Chris Nelson for assignment.

Yes, Arenado’s Double-A numbers last year (.285 /.337 /.428, 12 home runs) were less dazzling than in his sparkling 2011 season, in which he crushed 20 home runs and 122 RBIs and won most valuable player honors in the Arizona Fall League. But that’s not to say 2012 was a total loss, as the 22-year-old matured, and, in some ways, put together a better season. And the fact that Troy Tulowitzki has taken the neophyte under his wing sure doesn’t sound like a bad thing.

Let’s cut to the chase. Mike Moustakas has been fantasy kryptonite so far in 2013. Will Middlebrooks was hitting .202 entering Tuesday’s action. And Pedro Alvarez is, well, Pedro Alvarez. We’ll need a few more weeks to find out how well Arenado acclimates himself to the majors, but with his upside and his position’s scarcity, a spare roster spot—if not an outright starting gig—sure sounds like a cheap asking price.

Recommendation: If he’s still available in anything but the shallowest of mixed leagues, grab him.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Karl de Vries 2013-05-01T07:15:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-4-vol-iii/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-4-vol-iii/#When:06:58:15 Didi Gregorius and Marwin Gonzalez have shown flashes of playing above the AL and NL-only level I originally dismissed them as, though they’ve yet to earn their way onto mixed league rosters in all but the deepest of leagues. Meanwhile, our old friend Justin Maxwell is going to miss a few weeks due to a fractured hand, while Monday’s guest, Jose Quintana, has seen his ownership start to climb thanks to a win he earned on Wednesday against the Indians.

But that’s in the past. Let’s look ahead to some more waiver wire candidates who could provide a boost in this still-young season.

Lucas Harrell | Houston Astros | SP | 3 percent Yahoo ownership; 1 percent ESPN; 12 percent CBS
YTD: 28.2 IP / 5.55 FIP / 6.28 K/9 / 4.71 BB/9
Oliver: 170 IP / 3.73 FIP / 6.13 K/9 / 3.96 BB/9

Let’s start with some basic facts about Lucas Harrell’s team, the Astros.

• The Astros are doody.
• Doody teams that play alongside meat-craving Bengal tigers like the Texas Rangers and the Los Angeles Angels in their division tend to get torn apart.
• Teams that get torn apart don’t generate wins for their starters, which hurts their fantasy value.

Simple enough, right? The Astros stink, it’s not like Harrell is some latter-day Nolan Ryan (or Larry Dierker, or J.R. Richard), and thus his fantasy value is zilch, right?

Well, maybe. But maybe not.

The fact is, Harrell’s numbers are a bit too complicated for my taste, since we can basically divide his season between one horrific start (4.1 innings, eight earned runs, three home runs) and four pretty decent outings (a combined 24.1 innings with a 1.85 ERA and 6.66 K/9), two of which were against those fearsome Rangers and Angels. Yes, he’s benefited from a favorable 84.6 percent strand rate this season, but his BABIP is right where it should be, and his fine 54.7 percent groundball rate, if anything, feels a tad low given his career average (56.1 percent).

A look at Harrell’s minor league numbers don’t suggest a future ace here, but the 27-year-old held his own in 2012, his first full major league season, when he posted a 3.76 ERA (backed up by a similar FIP and xFIP) along with a not-bad 6.51 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9. Of course, that was back when the Astros played in the NL Central, a far cry from the AL West, but even if the improved competition takes a bite out of his performance, a second season for a guy who keeps the ball on the ground in Minute Maid Park might bear the fruits of maturity and experience.

If you’ve read this far and haven’t raced out to pick up an Astros rotation man, I don’t blame you, since Harrell’s ceiling this year feels very limited. But surely, someone, somewhere in a deep AL-only league needs a starter, and since it seems certain that Harrell is available in your league, he might be a guy worth taking a look at.

Recommendation: Worth a look in AL-only leagues.

Andrew Cashner | San Diego Padres | SP | 11 percent Yahoo ownership; .4 percent ESPN; 32 percent CBS
YTD: 13.1 IP / 4.43 FIP / 9.45 K/9 / 4.73 BB/9
Oliver: 64 IP / 2.95 FIP / 8.99 K/9 / 3.51 BB/9

This might be the easiest waiver wire entry I’ve ever written.

Cashner throws mid-90s gas and gets ground balls to the tune of a lifetime 50.6 percent rate. Add in Petco Park, and the fact that Cashner is entering the prime of his career, and you have a bona fide sleeper who could work wonders for mixed fantasy leagues everywhere.

But there was a problem coming out of spring training: Anxious to limit Cashner’s innings this season, and mindful of an offseason hunting accident that hurt his right thumb, the Padres placed him in the bullpen and handed his rotation spot to Tyson Ross, whom I wrote about in early April.

But then Ross went ahead and partially dislocated his left shoulder, forcing him to the DL. Has that opened up a spot for Cashner? It’s still a bit too soon to say for sure, but it definitely looks that way, since the 26-year-old was stretched out in a four-inning start on Saturday. He took the loss, thanks to a two-run Pablo Sandoval home run, but otherwise looked sharp, punching out five hitters against one walk. Tonight, he faces those same Giants again, this time at home, and manager Bud Black seems ready to move Cashner into the starting rotation.

Cashner isn’t without his faults, not the least of which is an injury history and a difficulty avoiding the free pass (lifetime 4.33 BB/9). But the upside is real, and the only reason he’s unowned in so many leagues—and the only reason he appears in a column that’s typically about under-the-radar fantasy assets—is because people forgot about him. Don’t make the same mistake. See how he does tonight if you’re hesitant, but I think he’s going to be in the rotation going forward, and once that’s official, the key piece in last year’s Anthony Rizzo trade will disappear from the free agent pool in everything resembling a fantasy baseball league.

Recommendation: Buy. Buy. Buy. Buy.

Felix Doubront | Boston Red Sox | SP | 17 percent Yahoo ownership; 8 percent ESPN; 52 percent CBS
YTD: 16.2 IP / 2.89 FIP / 11.34 K/9 / 4.86 BB/9
Oliver: 125 IP / 3.85 FIP / 8.06 K/9 / 3.74 BB/9

Compared to, say, mapping the human genome or researching faster-than-light travel, finding starting pitching in fantasy baseball is a relatively easy proposition: Look for guys who get strikeouts and then climb aboard. In the case of Doubront, 25, he’s already done that, compiling a career 9.17 K/9 in 213 innings, and was able to maintain his strikeout-per-inning goodness through 29 starts last year.

But like Quintana, Doubront’s ownership level is surprisingly low, perhaps because people are scared off by the 4.32 ERA (which his FIP laughs at), or the 4.86 walk rate (which is not supported by his minor league history), or they’re confusing the 2012 trainwreck that was the Boston Red Sox with this year’s team, which was off to a 14-7 start entering Thursday.

Regardless, Doubront offers upside playing for a team that should at least give him a fighting chance to win every night. Yes, the baserunners could be a potential problem (nine walks combined in his last two starts after a 1.45 WHIP last year), but this guy is still young and has a chance to blossom in his second full major league season. For a lot of owners playing in deep leagues, that certainly justifies some consideration, and when the walks come down to earth, a look in many mixed leagues.

Recommendation: Worth owning in all AL-only leagues.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Karl de Vries 2013-04-26T06:58:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-4-vol.-i/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-4-vol.-i/#When:07:06:15 Jake Westbrook's two-start Week 3 was ruined by rain, though he was poised to take the ball on Sunday night when this column was sent upstairs to the editors. Aside from his shortstop role, Marwin Gonzalez has done little to distinguish himself as a useful fantasy bat, though owners who rolled the dice on Andrew Bailey in Week 3 were rewarded with three saves.

Jose Quintana | Chicago White Sox | SP | 17 percent Yahoo ownership; 7 percent ESPN; 60 percent CBS
YTD: 17.2 IP, 2.68 FIP, 8.66 K/9, 2.04 BB/9
Oliver: 121 IP, 3.83 FIP, 6.10 K/9, 3.35 BB/9

Why don’t people like Quintana? Is it something about the way he looks? Did he choose not to stand during a rendition of God Bless America at some point in his career? Or is he just a guy whose name remains under the radar despite a solid rotation spot on a team that should compete for the playoffs this year?

Quintana, 24, put together a decent rookie season last year, going 6-6 with a 4.23 FIP and a 5.35 K/9 in 25 games (22 starts). But he posted a solid 47-percent groundball rate and managed a very fine 2.77 BB/9 despite unremarkable stuff and no help from his BABIP and HR/FB rate.

About those strikeouts: His 2012 rate is not good, to be sure, but he posted an excellent whiff rate in 300 minor league innings, and as he develops, I don’t think a 7.0 K/9 is an unreasonable expectation. His walk rate is no joke either, as evidenced by an above average F-Strike% rate.

Yeah, he’s gotten a bit pushed around in Cell Phone Park U.S. Cellular Field, which is not all that surprising, although we’re talking about 12 starts, a sample size that’s not beyond correction. As for 2013, so far, so good: 1-0 in three starts with a 2.74 FIP (3.57 xFIP) and an 8.66 K/9.

So let’s review. His strikeouts are going to improve over last year, he won’t walk too many players, and his team could very well win 90 games, a decent amount of which figure to belong to Quintana. With two starts lined up this week against the Indians and the punchless Rays, what's not to like?

Recommendation: Definitely worth a flier in standard mixed leagues.

Didi Gregorius | Arizona Diamondbacks | SS | 5 percent Yahoo ownership; 2.2 percent ESPN; 13 percent CBS
YTD: 30 PA, .357/.357/.500 with 1 HR and 0 SB
Oliver: 563 PA, .249/.294/.351 with 6 HR and 10 SB

When you hit a home run in your first at-bat of the season, people tend to take notice, especially when you’re a shortstop. Throw in the prospect of some regular playing time, and you might find yourself some friends among the fantasy community.

A part of the three-team offseason trade that sent Trevor Bauer to the Indians, Gregorius, 23, opened the season on the disabled list with a strained right elbow but played well in his Triple-A rehab stint and has improved over the course of his young career from his time as an all-glove, no-hit infielder. But he’s still developing at the plate, and his overall minor league numbers (.267/.319/.375) more accurately represent a man who’s here for his glove, not his stick.

There’s also the matter of playing time. I would expect Gregorius to pick up some steady at-bats going forward, though the left-handed hitter sat on Saturday against the Rockies’ southpaw Jorge de la Rosa, when Cliff Pennington picked up the start. Pennington, whose bat was producing an ice-cold .502 OPS entering Sunday’s action, will also play second base during Aaron Hill’s prolonged absence, though Martin Prado also figures to pick up a few at-bats at the keystone over the next month or so.

I like Gregorius’ athleticism and his prospects as a major-leaguer, but he’s still raw and very much unproven at the plate. Oliver’s conservative prediction seems appropriate for this rookie, and I’ll leave him alone in mixed leagues for the time being.

Recommendation: NL-only league material.

Daniel Nava | Boston Red Sox | OF | 18 percent Yahoo ownership; 32 percent ESPN; 37 percent CBS
YTD: 50 PA, .342/.460/.684 with 4 HR and 0 SB
Oliver: 436 PA, .250/.340/.404 with 13 HR and 5 SB

Red Sox Nation turned its lonely eyes to Nava in the eighth inning of Saturday’s emotional game against the Royals, when he smashed a Kelvin Herrera fastball for a game-winning three-run homer. For the 30-year-old left-fielder, the dinger was just the latest highlight in what’s been a fast start to 2013, as he looks to put together the first full-time season of his career.

It isn’t hard to like Nava, who, despite so far not having been able to translate a successful minor league career into major league numbers, has still produced a quality walk rate and an ability to make contact at the big league level. The .342 average he flashed entering Sunday’s game was backed by a perfectly reasonable .310 BABIP and 21.2 percent line drive rate, and while I wouldn’t expect the home run production to continue; 15 to 18 over the course of a full season sounds about right.

Playing-time wise, the switch-hitter’s career OPS against righties is about 130 points higher than against southpaws, so he might be a platoon option on weeks when Jonny Gomes picks up some starts in left field.

But David Ortiz is back in the middle of the Red Sox lineup and Jackie Bradley Jr. has been sent down to the farm, so it’s clearly Nava’s job to lose so long as he produces. With fine peripheral numbers, a decent upside and seven home games in Week 4 against the Astros and A’s, Nava probably is worth rostering in more than a few mixed leagues as long as he’s hot.

Recommendation: Worth picking up in deeper mixed leagues.

Aaron Hicks | Minnesota Twins | OF | 3 percent Yahoo ownership; 1 percent ESPN; 23 percent CBS
YTD: 56 PA, .042/.179/.042 with 0 HR and 1 SB
Oliver: n/a

By now, serious fantasy owners the nation over know Hicks has been a huge bust to start the year, a fraud who promised on-base ability and stolen base help only to produce absolutely nothing to the point of being dropped like a bad habit in countless leagues.

But if you believe there’s still hope for Hicks—the season did, after all, just celebrate its three-week anniversary last night—then consider the fact that the 23-year-old has been walking quite a bit over the past week, had a RBI and a stolen base yesterday and remains the team’s only center fielder so long as Darin Mastroianni’s foot injury keeps him out of the lineup.

It’s perfectly reasonable to cut Hicks in a shallow league where every roster position is precious. But I like Hicks and think he’s capable of producing in fantasy as soon as this year, provided he makes more contact and becomes more aggressive at the plate. Yes, with these numbers, he only has so long until he’s sent down to Triple-A to get things together, but I’d be willing to give him at least another week or so before I start cutting bait on this guy.

Recommendation: Worth a flier in deeper mixed leagues so long as he gets on base.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Karl de Vries 2013-04-22T07:06:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-week-3-vol.-iv/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-week-3-vol.-iv/#When:07:02:15
Since we last checked in, Nick Tepesch couldn’t hold onto the lead against the Mariners on Sunday, and Chris Heisey and Justin Ruggiano have yet to take off despite being handed starting jobs. Travis Hafner added another home run, and Trevor Rosenthal and Kelvin Herrera have yet to unseat their teams' respective closers.

With an early last call today thanks to the 11:00 a.m. start of the Patriot’s Day game between the Red Sox and Rays, here’s a look at three players who might have some under-the-radar value in deeper leagues.

Marwin Gonzalez | SS | Houston Astros | 13 percent Yahoo ownership; 14.9 ESPN ownership; 16 percent CBS ownership
YTD: 29 PA / .333 / .429 / .625 with 2 HR and 0 SB
Oliver: 483 PA / .257 / .307 / .356 -- with 6 HR and 8 SB

Yes, the Astros are terrible, and there’s only so much fantasy value to be squeezed out of this team. But Gonzalez, 24, offers manager Bo Porter a defensive upgrade over Ronny Cedeno at shortstop and has earned more playing time thanks to his hot start.

Of course, the two home runs he mashed in Week 2 equal the same amount he produced in 219 plate appearances last year, and with a career .355 slugging percentage in more than 2,000 minor league plate appearances, I think it’s fair to say that power will not be one of Gonzalez’s fantasy attributes. Steals probably won’t be a big part of his game, either, with just 47 swipes in the minors.

Still, Gonzalez was able to maintain a decent 13.8 percent strikeout rate down on the farm, and he might be able to produce a batting average that’s respectable enough to merit fantasy attention. The question with Gonzalez is how well he’ll hold on to a starting job when his hot streak runs out. (Which may already be the case; he was hitless in his last two games before sitting out Sunday’s contest against the Angels.)

While I don’t think he’s much of a long-term option for fantasy owners in 2013, Gonzalez might be worthwhile as a short-term tourniquet for teams that need help at shortstop right now.

Recommendation: Strictly AL-only leagues.

Andrew Bailey | RP | Boston Red Sox | 26 percent Yahoo ownership; 13.1 percent ESPN ownership; 25 percent CBS ownership
YTD: 4.1 IP / 1.19 FIP / 14.54 K/9 / 4.15 BB/9
Oliver: 35 IP / 3.12 FIP / 8.06 K/9 / 3.12 BB/9

Who doesn’t like cheap saves, especially when they’re coming from a former Rookie of the Year who has authored three seasons of 24 or more saves? Joel Hanrahan is being bothered by a sore hamstring and likely will give way to Bailey in Week 3 as the Red Sox’s master of the ninth inning. That alone gives the Jersey boy immediate value, and with his background, raises the question of whether this cameo could turn into a larger role.

Hanrahan said the injury surfaced back on April 3 against the Yankees, and that might explain his dreadful past two outings—a five-run blown save and loss against the Orioles on Wednesday, and Saturday’s game against the Rays, in which he was pulled in the ninth inning after walking the only two batters he faced.

There’s no set timetable for Hanrahan's return, and a trip to the disabled list has not been ruled out, but it’s just as possible he could be back in time to earn saves this weekend. Hanrahan obviously will be given more time to settle in as Boston’s closer, and if this injury is similar to the hamstring ailment that cost him five games early last year, he still could be a 35-save fantasy beast with a locked-in role all season long.

In the meantime, saves-hungry fantasy owners—especially those who just lost Kyuji Fujikawa to the DL—should give Bailey a ride in Week 3, especially with a full seven games on the BoSox schedule, including three each against the Indians and Royals.

Recommendation: Worth adding in deeper mixed leagues.

Jake Westbrook | SP | St. Louis Cardinals | 9 percent Yahoo ownership; 8.5 percent ESPN ownership; 42 percent CBS ownership
YTD: 15.2 IP / 4.63 FIP / 2.3 K/9 / 5.74 BB/9
Oliver: 186 IP / 3.95 FIP / 5.02 K/9 / 3.04 BB/9

I get it: Westbrook, with his mediocre career numbers (5.06 K/9, 1.39 WHIP, 4.14 FIP), is no one’s idea of a perfect fantasy pitcher, and two good starts to begin 2013 aren’t going to change that. But he did shut out a good Reds lineup on Wednesday, and with two starts on the docket in Week 3, probably deserves to be rostered in at least a few more leagues.

Westbrook, 35, has largely shed the injury history that gutted a good portion of his career, as he’s made at least 28 starts in each of the past three seasons. Pitching for the Cardinals, the team with the third-most runs scored in baseball entering Sunday’s action, he’s certainly a strong start on Tuesday when he faces Jonathan Sanchez at Pittsburgh, and a decent option later in the week against the Phillies.

Westbrook offers low expectations long-term, to be sure, but he's someone who probably can justify a roster spot in more than a few mixed leagues.

Recommendation: Worth a flier in deeper mixed leagues.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Karl de Vries 2013-04-15T07:02:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-week-3-vol.-III/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-week-3-vol.-III/#When:06:42:15 Kelvin Herrera strike out the side on Wednesday to pick up another save in his quest to unseat Greg Holland as Kansas City's closer.

Justin Ruggiano | Miami Marlins | OF | 25 percent Yahoo ownership; 21.4 percent ESPN ownership; 30 percent CBS ownership
YTD: 31 PA / .233 / .258 / .433 with 1 HR and 2 SB
Oliver: 468 PA / .255 / .325 / .427 with 15 HR and 14 SB

Despite consideration of platooning Ruggiano with Chris Coghlan, the 31-year-old has been the team’s starting center fielder since the year began. Hitting in the fifth slot of the Marlins’ order behind Greg Dobbs, owners in deeper leagues should keep an eye on whether Ruggiano can build on the 13-home run, 14-steal season he compiled in 2012 when he made only 320 plate appearances.

Speaking of last year, one would do best to look past the .313 batting average, which was buoyed by a crazy .401 BABIP, especially when he’s yet to alleviate a career 26 percent whiff rate. But in that same sense, his balls in play have dropped just 21.3 percent of the time so far in 2013, and an average in the .260s is not unforeseeable.

With a cast of no-names hitting behind him in the batting order, and a home park that’s not generally charitable to right-handed power-hitters, I think 20-20 expectations are pushing it. But despite not-easy matchups in Week 3 (three at home against the Nats, four in Cincinnati), Ruggiano offers under-the-radar value in deeper mixed leagues. Just don’t expect a huge breakout from a 31-year-old who’s compiled only 558 career plate appearances.

Recommendation: Decent outfield depth in mixed leagues.

Nicholas Tepesch | Texas Rangers | SP | 0 percent Yahoo ownership; 1.3 percent ESPN ownership; 19 percent CBS ownership
YTD: 7.1 IP / 2.98 FIP / 6.14 K/9 / 3.68 BB/9
Oliver: n/a

“Must-add” labels shouldn’t be given out frivolously, and mixed league owners might benefit from waiting an extra start or two from the 24-year-old Tepesch before kicking someone off the island. But there was certainly a lot to like coming from Tepesch on Tuesday, when he pitched 7.1 strong innings at home against the Rays to lead his team to a 6-1 victory, mixing five strikeouts against three walks.

It’s true that Tepesch has made only one start in his career in Triple-A, and he doesn’t really project as a high-strikeout ace. But he demonstrated good control in the minors (2.27 BB/9) and pitched his way to a rotation spot in March. For the moment, Matt Harrison’s rotation spot is being filled by Justin Grimm, though even a speedy return for the southpaw shouldn’t immediately affect Tepesch’s job security. Long-term, Colby Lewis has begun to throw again as he returns from elbow surgery, though the team says it will be conservative in its rush to bring back the right-hander.

I certainly think Tepesch is worth a look in AL-only leagues, and deserves at least attention beyond that. Provided he can pitch well at home, he’s backed by a strong supporting cast and seems like he could be a rotation man in the majors for some time to come.

Recommendation: Worth picking up in AL-only leagues, though mixed-leaguers could probably hold back for another start or two.

Travis Hafner | New York Yankees | DH | 14 percent Yahoo ownership; 10.2 percent ESPN ownership; 19 percent owned in CBS
YTD: 31 PA / .333 / .419 / .556 with 2 HR and 0 SB
Oliver: 415 PA / .247 / .345 / .413 with 13 HR and 1 SB

Did a minor mechanical tweak rescue Travis Hafner’s fantasy value? It’s too soon to tell for sure, but he certainly looks locked in right now, posting a nice triple slash line to go along with two home runs and a field day in Cleveland on Monday. Sure, Hafner, 35, is a few years removed from the days when he terrorized American League pitching, but a left-handed power hitter in the middle of the Yankees’ order, one who plays half his games at Yankee Stadium, should be worth something on the waiver wire.

The Yankees will split Week 3 with three at home against the Diamondbacks (where he’ll likely miss Ian Kennedy and Trevor Cahill) and three in homer-happy Toronto, where he’s slugged .595 for his career with seven home runs in 78 plate appearances. We’ll see how healthy Hafner stays going forward, and whether he’ll lose playing time as soon as some of their key players return, but for the moment, he seems like a solid source of power.

Recommendation: Deeper mixed league material until he cools down.

Travis Wood | Chicago Cubs | SP | 12 percent Yahoo ownership; 5.8 percent ESPN ownership; 41 percent CBS ownership
YTD: 12.1 IP / 2.17 FIP / 7.30 K/9 / 3.65 BB/9
Oliver: 186 IP / 3.91 FIP / 7.01 K/9 / 2.95 BB/9

In the infancy of his fourth season, Wood has become a hot pickup in CBS, with his ownership jumping 31 points over the past week. That owes, of course, not necessarily to a high ceiling but his fast start, which has seen the 26-year-old left-hander put together two strong outings. But at the risk of pouring cold water here, Wood, of whom I’ve never really been a huge fan, completed his work against the Brewers and Pirates, two teams whose offenses have gotten off to sluggish starts. And to my mind, he’s still a flyball pitcher calling Wrigley Field his home ballpark, which doesn’t boost my confidence, even though Oliver seems to have nothing but nice things to say about him.

He lines up for two starts in Week 3, facing the Rangers and Derek Holland, who’s looked good in his first two starts, and the raw but high-upside Wily Peralta in Milwaukee. If you need the starts, go get him, but if your bench spots are precious, I’d move on.

Recommendation: NL-only leagues for the time being.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Karl de Vries 2013-04-12T06:42:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-3-vol.-2/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-3-vol.-2/#When:07:04:15 Kyuji Fujikawa was serving as caddy to Carlos Marmol, Jim Henderson was in John Axford’s shadow and Tyson Ross was nothing more than the man keeping Andrew Cashner out of the Padres’ starting rotation. One week later, Fujikawa is (for the moment) taking care of ninth-inning leads for the Cubs, my waiver wire wingman Jack Weiland’s prescient observation that Henderson could be The Man in Milwaukee was spot on, and Ross uncorked two wild pitches in a loss to the Rockies.

But just as we’ve kept tabs on those two closer situations through their upheaval, we now turn our attention to the Midwest, where two more bullpens might be headed toward crises of their own.

Trevor Rosenthal | St. Louis Cardinals | RP | 12 percent Yahoo ownership; 4.6 percent ESPN ownership; 21 percent CBS ownership
YTD: 5 IP / 1.43 FIP / 12.60 K/9 / 1.80 BB/9
Oliver: 102 IP / 3.72 FIP / 7.17 K/9 / 3.72 BB/9

This is not what we call a quality outing for a relief pitcher:

0.1 IP, 2 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 0 K

It almost hurts to look at. So imagine how Mitchell Boggs must feel after his meltdown Monday against the Reds. Okay, so Boggs was hurt by a couple of infield rollers during that nightmarish frame, but along with a blown save last week, it’s been an inauspicious start for Jason Motte’s interim replacement. Regardless of how his MRI scheduled for Tuesday turns out (the results were not immediately available when I submitted this column), Motte is still at least a few weeks away from facing major league hitters, and unless St. Louis is hosting a Maalox night at the ballpark this month, some security in the ninth inning would be a nice thing to have.

Is Rosenthal the man? A bona fide flame-thrower whose average fastball velocity sat at 97 mph last year, Rosenthal in 27 career innings has boasted a 10.41 K/9, a nice groundball rate and a solid (2.6) walk rate. Problem is, Rosenthal was used exclusively as a starter during his minor league career, and he’s already blown two leads in his five appearances so far in 2013, making me question whether he has the guile for late-inning fire duty.

Bullpen counterpart Edward Mujica, meanwhile, has a wealth of relief experience, but just four career saves and not nearly the strikeout capability that Rosenthal does. Beyond that, 24-year-old Eduardo Sanchez is starting out the season in Triple-A but has strikeout stuff.

So far, manager Mike Matheny hasn’t indicated whether a change is on the way, so if you were needy enough to grab Boggs in the first place for the saves, you might as well hold onto him. But owners are clearly starting to move on to Rosenthal, which is fine if one has the bench space, though I’d say it’s less than guaranteed whether he’ll pick up saves as Motte continues to rehab.

Recommendation: Not worth the bench space until he earns the role.

Kelvin Herrera | Kansas City Royals | RP | 45 percent Yahoo ownership; 23 percent ESPN ownership; 32 percent CBS ownership

YTD: 3.1 IP / -0.27 FIP / 18.90 K/9 / 2.7 BB/9
Oliver: 68 IP / 3.38 FIP / 7.29 K/9 / 2.65 BB/9

It’s no revelation that Herrera has a live arm. According to FanGraphs’ PITCHfx charts, Herrera, 23, boasted the fastball with the second-highest average velocity among qualified relievers in 2012. We know he’s talented; the question is whether he’ll have fantasy value.

But it didn’t take long for opportunity to knock. Greg Holland gave up a crushing blown save/loss on Saturday, and had to be bailed out by Herrera against the Phillies on Sunday. Aaron Crow picked up the save on Monday’s 3-1 win over the Twins, but that can be chalked up to manager Ned Yost’s preference for not wanting to use either Holland or Herrera for the third straight day.

There’s a lot to like about the 23-year-old. I’m a big fan of his 2.24 walk rate, which suggests he can do more besides throw really, really hard. Yeah, an 81 percent strand rate feels due to come down a bit, but when it’s balanced by a 55.5 percent groundball rate, I’m willing to give it a pass.

Predictably, Yost has stood by his closer, and Holland, after an injury-affected start in 2012, pitched very well as KC’s closer last year. But his velocity seems to be off from 2012, and despite a nice track record, a high-quality, high-upside reliever waits to replace him. Herrera is already starting to be picked up in leagues; if there's a whiff of injury news from Holland he's a must-add.

Recommendation: Put your fantasy forces on DEFCON 3. Holland's departure might not be imminent, but his upcoming outings will be worth monitoring.

Justin Maxwell | Houston Astros | OF | 12 percent Yahoo ownership; 22 percent ESPN ownership; 23 CBS ownership
YTD: 27 PA / 360 / .407 / .560 with 0 HR / 0 SB
Oliver: 393 PA / .231 / .316 / .409 with 14 HR / 10 SB

Forget the milestone that marked the Astros’ inaugural American League game on March 31. The real story was center fielder Justin Maxwell, who belted two triples and made a great play on a David Murphy drive to lead the team to victory over the Rangers. Since then, Maxwell, 29, has hit in all but one of the games in which he’s appeared (entering Tuesday’s action), and has seen his CBS ownership jump by 11 percentage points since the season began.

Drafted by the Nationals in 2005, traded to the Yankees and claimed off waivers by the Astros at the beginning of last year, Maxwell posted a .229/.304/.460 line in 352 plate appearances. His .292 BABIP might suggest his batting average was the victim of some bad luck, but his 67 percent contact rate was the third-lowest among major league players with at least 350 plate appearances last year, and was accompanied by a dreadful 32.4 percent whiff rate.

Maxwell certainly possesses some pop, evidenced by his career .209 ISO, and with the tempting Crawford boxes overlooking Enron’s Minute Maid Park’s left field, it’s not hard to imagine a guy who bashed 18 home runs last year putting up at least 20 in this season. Add 15 to 20 steals and you have a cheap player who can help your squad—as long as you’re ready to stomach a hit to your team’s batting average.

Recommendation: He's cheap offense for AL-only leagues.

Garrett Richards | Los Angeles Angels | SP | 1 percent Yahoo ownership; 0 percent ESPN ownership; 6 percent CBS ownership
YTD: 4.1 IP / 4.42 FIP / 10.38 K/9 / 2.08 BB/9
Oliver ROS: 148 IP / 4.08 FIP / 5.98 K/9 / 3.54 BB/9

For those who were predicting a down year in fantasy value for Jered Weaver in 2013 (of whom there were many), good news: The fractured left elbow he suffered the other day will fulfill that prophecy. With Weaver facing at least a month away from major league action, the Angels are likely to tap Richards, 24, to pick up a few starts in the rotation while he’s away.

What is there to say about Richards? He offers a pedestrian 6.15 K/9 and 4.97 FIP during his career 89.1 innings, and isn't likely to set the fantasy world ablaze in 2013. But even a mediocre Angels hurler, backed by a strong offense and a bullpen that will eventually add Ryan Madson to its ranks, could be useful in some leagues.

Recommendation: Strictly AL-only right now.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Karl de Vries 2013-04-10T07:04:15+00:00