The Hardball Times -- Kevin Cearnal http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-17T08:57:15+00:00 Daily Fantasy: a virtual tour http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-a-virtual-tour/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-a-virtual-tour/#When:05:49:15
Below you will see the site name, my own game selections, a link to the site's scoring model and the individual key to success you need to start winning at that fantasy site.

Draftstreet

The fun on this site begins on the home page, where you are greeted by some of the best looking referees I've ever seen. When you finally break your stare from this, you will find a multitude of different games and buy-ins available. My new favorite game here is the Homerun Derby competition. You can play head-to-head or in large groups, and the sole scoring method is, well you probably guessed it, home runs. These games last a week and can be a fun, easy way to find some added excitement in the baseball world. Make sure you give these a shot.

Other site highlights include both low and high buy-in tournaments almost every day. These tournaments are tough to do well in, because of the large number of competitors and tough competition, but they can pay off in a big, big way. If you are looking for some good risk/reward action, accompanied by excellent live scoring and genuine fun, Draftstreet may be the site for you.

Scoring model

Key to success: The utility spot is the key if you want to win consistently on Draftstreet. Unlike most sites, Draftstreet allows you to pick two hitters who aren't limited to positional limitations. This allows you to pick the top players for the day, even if they play the same position. It gives you a lot of flexibility when making lineup decisions, but it can also spell disaster if you miss on the two guys that you can custom pick. Find the right players at the right prices for those spots, and you are well on your way to consistent success on Draftstreet.



FanDuel

The ultimate daily fantasy baseball tournament paradise. It features multiple large field tournaments every single day. My favorite of these tournaments is the Friday Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship (DFBC) qualifier. This tournament has a price tag of $10, and can be entered multiple times. The winner each week qualifies for an end-of-season tournament that pays out more than $50,000. That's enough convincing for me, and I hope for you. I'm all about these large payout opportunities and the excitement level when following these tournaments is unbelievable. Come spend a Friday night on FanDuel and I promise you will not be disappointed.

Scoring model

Key To success: Pitching is the difference between winning and losing regularly on FanDuel. You need to pick a pitcher who is going to get a win that day, because that stat carries seven points with it. That is equivalent to a two-run homer for a position player. Make sure you review the betting lines for the day, giving yourself a great shot at getting this win. If you do, you have given yourself a significant leg up on your competition.

Sportsgeek

This site doesn't get as much publicity as some of the others, but it has unique game types and good competition, which keeps me coming back. I typically play the head-to-head contests on this site, but what I like is that you can easily place your head-to-head team into the 50-man, $2 buy-in tournaments that are available daily. I don't even have to re-enter my lineup. I can simply place the same lineup in as many competitions as I would like, saving me both time and hassle. If you are all about convenience, Sportsgeek may be your spot to play.

Scoring model

Key to success: The bullpen. That's right: Sportsgeek is the only daily fantasy site I've run across that allows you to pick not only a starting pitcher, but also a team bullpen. This adds a unique dynamic to the game. It takes some getting used to, and you are sure to run across your fair share of bullpen implosions. But once you get accustomed to picking a bullpen, and learn how to do it properly, it is a fun way to play daily fantasy. Come give it a try, and see if you can predict the end of a game on the mound as well as you can the beginning.

Daily Joust

This site launched only a few months ago, but already has emerged into an industry leader. Why? Well for one thing, it is being run by one of the co-founders of EA Sports Video Games. You know, that little company that invented and programmed the Madden franchise. Check out an interview with site founder here. Needless to say, these guys really know what they are doing, and it is reflected in their site's layout and games. A sleek design and easy-to-use interface are just a few aspects of the site that keep me coming back. One of the unusual features, is that Daily Joust awards badges for milestones in your daily fantasy endeavors. This is a cool way to track your progress as you play. It's like your own personal trophy case.

Scoring model

Key to success:Persistence. The competition here is probably the most difficult in the industry, because the site is almost exclusively populated by daily fantasy's best players. If you are looking for a difficult challenge, and want to increase your skill level quickly, try your hand at this site. But approach with caution; you will not find a profit easy here. But even so, it is a fun site to play on because of its cool design and features. Don't be scared!

I hope that this article encourages you to spread your wings and try some new sites and games. There are so many game types to choose from, so do your best to find one that you feel you can consistently win at. Find a scoring model that suits your style and preparation properly, and you may find yourself building up quite a large bankroll quickly.

If none of these sites or games look like the type for you, or if you're looking for something uber-specific, please do let me know. I can find it for you, or at very least point you in the right direction.

See you next time.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Kevin Cearnal 2011-07-07T05:49:15+00:00 Daily fantasy: splits decisions http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-splits-decisions/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-splits-decisions/#When:06:48:15
This information should prevent you from committing one of the ultimate no-nos when it comes to daily fantasy baseball preparation: "digging too deep." I've seen it from so many players, both new and old. They think so long and so hard about so many different variables that their thinking becomes clouded. We've all heard the classic slogan "go with your gut," and while I'm not advocating this completely, I do think there is something to be said for not over-thinking things. I've found that some of the best, most profitable teams I've put together, have come from very basic research in a reasonably short amount of time.

A quick note. Not included in these splits decisions are past week performance and specific pitcher vs. batter stats. If you've been reading me, you know I advocate these two statistical measures more than any other. If you haven't, then shame on you, but also have a quick look at last week's Movin' On Up and previous article Step your prep up.

So here they are, the three most relevant splits, in no particular order.

Lefty/Righty


This is the most obvious, and most used split stat in daily fantasy baseball. If you spend any significant time in the forums or chats of the various sites, it will become clear to you that the first thing that pops into the heads of the experienced player is the dominant hand of the hitter and the dominant hand of the pitcher he is are facing. But while this is the most relevant split, it is also the most misinterpreted.

The biggest misinterpretation is that lefties can't hit lefties. This is not the case. While some lefties look lost against lefty pitchers (see, Adam Dunn), others hit them quite well—so well in fact, that they could give you a leg up in your match-up over a competitor who blindly doesn't play Adrian Gonzalez because he is facing crafty southpaw Ted Lilly. In reality Gonzalez has a career OPS of .933 against Lilly in more than 20 plate appearances.

The same type of assumptions can be easily made for pitchers, along with complete ignorance to pitching statistics. To stick with our Red Sox examples, lets use Kevin Youkilis. He thrashes typical left-handed pitching, to the tune of a .328 batting average and an OPS of over 1.000 over the past three years. Both those statistics are significantly higher than his stats versus righties over that same period. So some would automatically roster him against the likes of say, C.J. Wilson. But not so fast. Mr. Wilson has a very respectable ERA of 2.65 versus righties in 2011. And not only that, he has given up pnly extra base hit to Youkilis in his career. Bet you didn't know that.

So when using lefty/righty splits make sure to analyze the guy in the batters box as well as the man on the mound. You might find some interesting things if you take the time to dig deep enough. Here's a top five list you might find useful as you using lefty/righty splits in the future:

Top five batting averages for lefties against lefties for their career (since 2002)

(1) Ichiro Suzuki - .341
(2) Todd Helton - .311
(3) Juan Pierre - .303
(4) Joe Mauer - .301
(5) Robinson Cano - .298

For more on the relevancy of lefty/righty splits check out this cool article from Baseball Professor, Complete MLB Batter Split Stats vs. LHP/RHP

Home/Away


There are many, many things that you must consider when deciding whether to value the home/away stats of any individual player. Many variables that can skew these stats one way or the other have absolutely nothing to do with a player playing at home or away from home. Some of those will be presented in the next section that discusses stadium-specific hitting. Others include weather (temperature and precipitation), playing through injury and things as simple as pitcher match-ups But home/away splits are a variable on their own, independent from the stadium aspect, and these splits can be very telling for certain guys. These stats are most relevant when sustained over a long period of time. Some players just hit better with the support of fans and others may get ridiculed in their home stadium, making them far more successful on the road.

Here are three players who have shown statistically significant differences in batting average between home/away stats since 2002

(1) David Ortiz (.308 home/.265 away)
(2) Michael Young (.325 home/.285 away)
(3) Bobby Abreu (.303 home/.279 away)

You can find pretty much anything you need on Fangraphs. Check it out and see if you can find anything significant that I missed. That's the fun thing about splits, there's always more to be found. But for every significant thing you find, you will encounter and have to determine the relative unimportance of countless other splits. It's a test of your inner patience. Good luck!


Stadium-specific hitting statistics


Last, stadium factors. We all have preconceived notions about which parks are hitter friendly and which ones are not. And for the most part you are probably spot on. But make sure when you pick players based on what stadium they play in, you also factor in the other variables on that given night (like weather and pitcher). Just to put your mind at ease, I wanted to present you with the three most hitter-friendly, three most pitcher-friendly, and four most neutral fields in the league, as rated byThe Sporting News.

Hitter-friendly

(1) Yankee Stadium
(2) Coors Field
(3) Chase Field

Pitcher-friendly

(1) Petco Park
(2) Safeco Field
(3) Oakland Coliseum

4 Neutral

(1) Tropicana Field
(2) Kaufmann Stadium
(3) Sun Life Stadium
(4) Nationals Ballpark>


Make this an important consideration when finalizing the tough decisions for your daily lineup. Give one of my favorite sites a try:

FanDuel -- DraftStreet -- DraftZone -- Fantasy Sports Live -- SportsGeek

Free to contact me to complain, chat or talk about your triumphs. See you next time!


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Kevin Cearnal 2011-06-08T06:48:15+00:00 Daily Fantasy: Movin’ On Up http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-movin-on-up/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-movin-on-up/#When:09:40:15
For this article, I took the time to interview players with varying experience levels with daily fantasy. I asked them one simple question. "What is your biggest question about daily fantasy baseball?"

Here are those questions, as well as my best shot at giving them the response they needed—or were looking for:


ONE DAY -- Is this legal?

Short answer is yes. This is completely legal. But I felt the same way when I stumbled upon FanDuel. This must be illegal, it's too awesome to be true. But it in fact is 100 percent legitimate. Here is an excerpt from the FAQ page on FanDuel:

"Yes, Fantasy Sports is considered a game of skill and received a specific exemption from the 2006 Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act. FanDuel uses exactly same rules as any other season long fantasy sports game, the only difference is that our games last only a day. Thanks to fantasy sports being specifically excluded from laws affecting online sports betting, FanDuel is not illegal in any way. Trust us, our lawyers drive very nice cars so that we can keep it that way. We're also members of the The Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA)."

For full text of the UIGEA of 2006 click here.

The simple fact is that you can use PayPal and your credit card to play. This wouldn't be possible if daily fantasy baseball was illegal. I hope that it puts all your minds at ease, knowing that you won't end up behind prison bars.


ONE WEEK -- Why do I keep losing?

This is a tough, tough question to answer. There are many, many reasons that players lose early in their careers. I'll give you a top five and, while some of these may seem silly, they are accurate—at least with what I've seen. Here you go:

1) Taking the time to pay, when you don't have time to play. Um, duh. If your not gonna be around at game lock time, you might as well just not play. You can take a day off; it's okay. And if you are a player that has been playing, and losing, you are actually winning by not playing. I know that's a tough concept to follow, but think about it; I'm sure you'll understand. If you don't, stop reading my article, and please face me in daily fantasy.

2) Ignoring the obvious. Matt Holliday is two for 21 in his career off Aaron Harang, with zero extra base hits. As a daily fantasy baseball player, you need to know these types of things. The players with extreme successes or extreme slumps off other players exist every night. Identify them and make the proper decisions.

3) Matching up with the heavy hitters. If you can avoid the big boys, please take care of your bankroll. These guys are so, so tough. It's almost impossible to win against them consistently. And on most sites, there is plenty of less experienced traffic to face-off against. Choose your matchups carefully.

4) Ignoring the outdoors. Watch the weather like your grandmother does. It's the single easiest variable to track. Therefore, it is also the single easiest way to gain a leg-up on your opponent. There have been 30 rainouts so far this year. That's a huge number. Monitor the doppler and you will start getting some extra wins.

5) Playing players who aren't playing. Please check the lineups before you pick, people—for your own good. You look like an idiot when you have someone rostered who is taking the night off. And you look even worse if you pick someone like Ryan Zimmerman or Steven Strasburg, who haven't played all season. I hope none of my readers are making these mistakes, but if you are, fix it up.

Use these five items as a simple starting place, and your financial prospects for daily fantasy are sure to start improving.


ONE MONTH -- What are some outside resources?

A few short weeks ago I provided you all with my favorite resources for daily fantasy preparation. If you have yet to see those click here. After debating with myself for what seems like an eternity, I've decided to divulge to the readers my two other resources for dominant preparation. Here they are:

Yahoo! Who's Hot: This is such a valuable resource for me. I love knowing who's been swinging the sticks well lately, and this provides me with a perfect guide at every position.

To me, there are two primary selection criteria for hitters. First is recent performance, which can be found on the above-mentioned site. The other is historical performance. This includes everything from lefty/righty match-ups to day vs. night game averages. There are few, if any, completely irrelevant split stats to the daily fantasy player. Succeeding in this game is simply a matter of identifying which ones most accurately predict performance on any given day, and using them to your advantage. Some players go so far as to compile spreadsheets and composite scores for this type of information. While I'm not quite this dedicated, I can tell you that finding a guy who's been performing well lately, (Yahoo! Who's Hot) and also has good splits is almost always a great daily play.

Bodog -- MLB Player Props: Very rarely do I admit that anyone is more sports-knowledgeable than I. But I must concede—oddsmakers know what they are doing. With that being said, I think that Bodog's individual player props might be as accurate a predictor of nightly player performance than any other resource. Odds are presented on such things as HR probability and combined RBI, Runs and Hits for most of MLB's top players. This should give you a good indication of how a player will do versus their opponent for that day.

There are countless ways that this can be weighed, measured and utilized. If you would like to discuss the value of this site with you further, please feel free to drop me a line.

These sites are sure to come in handy for you in the daily fantasy world. All I can say is, your welcome. And remember me if you win big.


SIX MONTHS -- What's the best wager model?

The decision to be made here is tournaments, or head-to-head—or a variety of both. Tournaments offer large payout opportunities, but are far harder to win at consistently. Head-to-heads. on the other hand, can be won quite a bit, though a bad night could ruin a week of profits. Its a tough decision to make, and a personal one, but I can offer my opinion on the matter.

I play to win money, but I also play because daily fantasy is fun and makes Mariners' games more exciting. With that being said, I try to structure my wager model around this philosophy. What does this mean? It means I play primarily head-to-head games to make a profit. I then use this hoped-for profit to play in large field tournaments, with the goal of getting the big payday.

It's worked fairly well thus far, so I would highly recommend this to others. But your personal betting tendencies will almost certainly be different, based on bankroll and risk analysis. Good luck to you, and let me reiterate that strategies presented here should be applicable to all players.


ONE YEAR -- How can I maximize my money?

There are three things that you must find in order to maximize your earning potential. The first is to find the site that has features you feel comfortable with, and offers the games that you feel you can be most successful. Next, you must identify the scoring system that best suits your skills. All sites have their own unique scoring system that values, or devalues, certain individuals. Knowing and applying the scoring system properly is one of the most important, yet overlooked, aspects of playing successful daily fantasy baseball. Last, you must select a specific game format that seems to fit your style of play. Do some trial and error, because there are a lot of options out there. Sites have salary cap games, live drafts, autopicks and other different variations. By picking the right game format, you will ensure your best chance of success.


I hope that you found this little survey helpful. I encourage you all to go out and form some questions of your own. Here are the best places to give it a shot:

FanDuel -- DraftStreet -- DraftZone -- Fantasy Sports Live -- SportsGeek

Feel free to shoot me a line if you have a question of your own. See you next time!



Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Kevin Cearnal 2011-05-24T09:40:15+00:00 Daily Fantasy: Let’s talk lineups (five quick lessons) http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-lets-talk-lineups/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-lets-talk-lineups/#When:09:57:15 Ben Pritchett approached me this week about facing him in a game of daily fantasy. Of course I accepted, and hence was set a match-up of THT staffers. With Ben's permission I am going to give you a look at the lineups, results and five points of interest stemming from our heated battle that I felt were worthy of discussion. Identifying and discussing these line items may help you understand both good and bad habits that you can form when playing daily fantasy baseball.

Let's start with the general match-up details:

Site: FanDuel
Date: Wednesday April 20
Game Type: Standard Salary Cap, $35,000
Scoring Breakdown:

Hitters: 1B = 1pt, 2B = 2pts, 3B = 3pts, HR = 4pts, RBI = 1pt, R = 1pt, BB = 1pt, SB = 2pts, Out (calculated as at bats - hits) = -.25pt
Pitchers: W = 7pts, ER = -1pt, SO=1pt, IP = 1pt*
* Fractional scoring per out.

If there are other details you would like please feel free to visit the match-up page here (Ben Pritchett vs. Kevin Cearnal)

Here's how the lineups shook out:

Ben Pritchett (naturalslugger)
(Pos) Player [Salary] *PointTotal*
(P) Zach Britton [3,900] *13*
(C) Carlos Santana [3,300] *3.5*
(1B) Joey Votto [4,100] *3.5*
(2B) Dan Uggla [3,500] *0.5*
(3B) Rich Robertson [3,900] *2.5*
(SS) Hanley Ramirez [3,700] *1.25*
(LF) Matt Holliday [3,900] *4.75*
(CF) Andrew McCutchen [3,600] *0*
(RF) Jason Heyward [3,400] *-1*
TOTAL = 28


Kevin Cearnal (kcearnal)
(P) Jered Weaver [9,900] *23*
(C) J.P. Arencibia [2,500] *6.5*
(1B) Joey Votto [4,100] *3.5*
(2B) Brian Roberts [3,400] *0.25*
(3B) Greg Dobbs [2,600] *1.25*
(SS) Yunel Escobar [3,200] *1.25*
(LF) Alex Gordon [3,200] *4*
(CF) Grady Sizemore [2,500] *0*
(RF) Shin-Soo Choo [3,600] *3*
TOTAL = 42.75

So here are the five things I hope a new player can learn from this match-up:

1. McCutchen was MIA - So we both took big fat zeroes from our center fielders. The only difference was that mine took the field. This was the night that McCutchen had "family matters" to attend to and missed the game. And while something like this is impossible to predict, it is not impossible to find out. I got this news roughly 2 1/2 hours prior to game time via one of my favorite tools, ESPN's fantasy news text alerts. For those of you who don't already utilize this tool I highly recommend it. It is free and can provide helpful insights, such as the aforementioned example, on a nightly basis. If Ben had picked up on this info, he would have certainly replaced his center fielder, giving him a chance to make up some points. Paying premium price for a guy who isn't playing is unacceptable. Period.

2. Pick a solidified starter - Britton vs. Weaver is a very interesting matchup to analyze. Both got the win (7 points), which is the most important thing to consider when picking a pitcher on FanDuel. Pick a guy you think will win. End of story.

But beyond that, I would even go as far as to say that I never settle for anything less than the best pitcher of the day. The pricing is such that you can afford any pitcher, and still create a decent lineup with a little work. And that's where the difference in experience comes into play. I took the premium pitcher. Ben did not. And I don't blame him for going after Britton. He had a good start and was one of the cheapest options of the day. This choice allowed Ben to pick the very best player at every other position on his team. But pitcher is not where you want to short change yourself. You can find low cost options elsewhere (just look at my lineup). Weaver racked up the K's and pitched a CG. He's a stud and he has to be on your roster almost every fifth day.

So lesson two is this: when playing FanDuel, always pick the pitcher you think will score the best, regardless of price. This will prevent you from kicking yourself later.

3. Project points, but also determine value - So let's just say that, theoretically, Ben thought Holliday would put up five points. That's a great total and you'd take that any day of the week. But Holliday is in the top three in terms of cost. Gordon, on the other hand was red hot, $700 cheaper, and I projected him for 3.5. This is where you must consider value for your money. I've discussed this in previous articles, but I can't emphasize the point enough: if your going to pay big money for a guy, make sure not only that he is going to be the highest scoring player, but also that there isn't a guy for less that will be comparable. I'm pretty sure that there is a business term called "cost-benefit analysis." And I'm also pretty sure that that's the point I'm trying to get across here.

Find the bargains that make sense. Use them. And make sure that 99 percent of the time these bargains are position players, not pitchers.

4. Rarely pay the premium for a catcher - For the most part, catchers stink at hitting. Outside of a handful of guys (of which you might consider Santana one) they are atrocious and unreliable. So I think that this is one of your best options for bargain shopping. Especially on a night when Mr. Arencibia is behind home plate. He's cheap and he has big point potential, the ideal combination for my catcher selection. I guess my criticism here is based on my prior experience. It rarely pays off to spend on catching, or so it seems. So, unless you see unbelievable priors or a catcher is riding a hot streak, I would advise you to fork out your dollars elsewhere.

5. Never, ever play against me! - I'm kind of a big deal. People know me. But all kidding aside, the lesson to be learned here is to do your best to match-up with people that have similar daily fantasy baseball skills as you do. You'll get smoked if you start facing the big boys in the beginning. And while you may learn a lot, and really fast, your bankroll will also take a beating. So start off slow and try to find guys, like you, that are just starting out. This way you'll be able to hone your craft and eventually become one of the game's premier players.


Well that's all for this week. Hope that this showed you how little maneuvers can make a huge difference in daily fantasy. Experience is also a key factor in the daily fantasy world, so I invite all of you to start getting some at any of the following sites:

FanDuel -- DraftStreet -- DraftZone -- Fantasy Sports Live -- SportsGeek

See you next time!

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Kevin Cearnal 2011-04-27T09:57:15+00:00 Daily Fantasy: Step your prep up http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-step-your-prep-up/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-step-your-prep-up/#When:09:59:15
This week I'm going to show you the various sites you will need to visit, as well as how to integrate what you find at these locales into Daily Fantasy Baseball profit. Many of the top players in the industry are hesitant to give up these web presences, as many view the isolation of this information as integral to their continued success.

But I am a firm believer in an even playing field. Therefore, I will divulge these crucial checkpoints here at THT for two specific reasons. The first is to assist those of you who have already jumped head-first into these scary waters stay afloat in a world filled with sharks. The other is to arm those of you hesitant to join our world with the ammunition you need to stay alive. No matter which category you fit in, the following will be of particular interest to you. And compounding this interest is the fact that all of the following resources, at least in the manner I use them, are totally and completely FREE.

Let me prolong this introduction by adding a three-step process to the mix. We all know the concepts of past, present and future. But in preparation for daily fantasy, you must examine the timeline in reverse in order to be truly successful. Crazy you say? Read on and the fog will clear.


Future
Why start with the future? Well because when you wake up in the morning the first thing you want to get a feel for is the day's upcoming games. Projections for hitters and pitchers are essential. Too many fantasy players make the mistake of picking guys based on misdirected information, or worse yet just a lack of it. So below are the first few stops I like to make on my tour around the Daily Fantasy Baseball preparation world.

SportsGrumblings - What you're going to want to utilize and examine here is its "daily" projections. This is very easy to find as it is usually located centrally within the heart of the baseball homepage. These projections take into account more than 30 separate factors. And the site even gives you the top 10 at each position, for no cost. I've been using said projections for a little over a year now, and I must say that they are usually fairly accurate.

There are two things you are going to want to look out for when analyzing these projections, though. The first is that the system seems to give extra credence to players against bad pitchers. By this I mean that against a lower-tier or new starter, the computer-based projection will recommend almost every player on a specific team. When this occurs you are going to want to take some extra time to examine and infer which players truly are good plays. Secondly, the system does not take into account players that have a low-likelihood of starting. Backups are included in the top 10 quite frequently and you need to watch out for this and make sure they don't end up whimsically ending up in your lineup.

Other than these two factors, the system is what I consider to be a fairly ideal starting point for the day's research.

Weather.com (baseball) - You wouldn't look outside, see it's raining, then walk outside without an umbrella right? The same concept applies for daily fantasy baseball. Check the forecast. And while we all know that meteorology isn't nearly as reliable as death or taxes, it is technically considered a science. So with that being said, check this site out in the morning. Look and see what's going on and where. A good rule of thumb is that if the chances of significant rain are 40 percent or higher for game time, monitoring the developments is worthwhile.

Personal preference, as well as personal experience, are going to have a great deal to do with how much inclement weather will affect your selections, but I speak from experience when I say that it is at least is worth consideration.

ESPN Fantasy Baseball (daily notes) - This is a column that releases every morning as a general basis for pitcher rankings. It is fairly informative, showing recent statistics as well as both a computer ranking and a columnist opinion. Don't use this as a cut and dried way to select your pitcher(s) for the day (seeing as it is the most important decision you will make in a day), but do make sure that you give a good look at these guys and what the 'experts' at ESPN have to say about them.


Present
This is the here and now of your preparation. The true dirt on what's going on as the day progresses. These are the stops you are going to want to make several times during the day. Frequent visits are very, very important because when you're playing for money on a single day, one missed injury or illness has a very good chance of making or breaking you. You want to know about the head colds, the tweaks and the ever-dreaded '"flu-like symptoms." Here are the top three places where this stuff will come across. Quickly.

BaseballPress - This is a fairly new site that not many are visiting yet. But I think it may be the best, cleanest and easiest to navigate of the "present" resources for the Daily Fantasy Baseball player. Here is where you can see lineups as they are released. This can range anywhere from six hours to one hour prior to first pitch for a game. YOU HAVE TO KNOW THESE LINEUPS. If David Ortiz is getting a day off you have to know about it. You just have to. Taking zeroes is a way to lose, consistently. Click the lineups tab on this site and you will have a one-stop, reliable source for the day's starting lineups. Use it.

RotoInfo This site features a scrolling news feature to go along with steadily releasing lineups. This is a good place to check-in on from time to time throughout the day to check for early injury announcements as it is updated with Twitter feeds and beat writer columns. It is a mixed bag of goodies for the daily fantasy player. A good resource to know. It adds crucial variety and information to the other news feeds.

RotoWorld - One of the earliest and slickest sites for the most up-to-date injuries and headlines. I like to visit this place at least once daily simply because it seems to go beyond facts and even feature some news that may be considered opinion. You will find news such as "Mike Stanton seems to be swinging well in warm-ups" or "Alfonso Soriano seems to be favoring his hamstring during batting practice." If you can get the inside edge on news like that, it can be a golden ticket to success for the day.

Oh and did I mention they release daily lineups as well?


Past
Now that you've got the lay of the land for the day at hand, you need to take a look back a prior performance. Some fantasy players select lefties because they are facing righties. Others pick players because they are hitting in Coors Field. But in order to make truly informed decisions, you need to integrate specific past performance statistics into your selection criteria. This may seem like a tough endeavor. But it in fact isn't. And it is actually all contained in one helpful, concise web presence that I have mentioned in previous articles. Lucky you!

DailyBaseballData - Another site I've mentioned previously. But I wholeheartedly, intensely and [insert another strong adjective here] believe that this is the key to the castle. The winning lottery ticket. On this site (run by THT friend Alex Zelvin) you can find ALL the previous batter/hitter data for the day's contests. Want to know how many career homers Vladimir Guerrero has against A.J. Burnett? The answer is two. In 50 at-bats. And I found that out in about 30 seconds. This is such a clutch resource. Look this stuff over and it can be the deciding factor between two players who to the naked eye, make look dead-even.


All-around good fun/above and beyond
Daily Fantasy Baseball is a huge time commitment to begin with. But with it can come with huge rewards. Here is one additional resource you can use if you wish to delve even further into the madness.

Rotogrinders- This is a site dedicated to forming a community for daily fantasy players. It has forums, daily value plays and various other cool features that you should surely check out. If you wish to engage in conversation about this emerging industry, rather than just play, this is the place to be. Many of the top, most successful players spend time writing, discussing and arguing about daily fantasy baseball here. Ever-expanding content and a staff of dedicated, fantasy junkies make this site a fun and creative way to further immerse one's self into the this world. Members can even write their own blogs to earn a little extra cash.

Check it out!

So that's it. Those are the sites you need for success. Do me a favor and spend a day using all of them. Form a lineup, and see if it doesn't put up some pretty big points. Let me offer a disclaimer though. THIS WILL NOT ALWAYS GUARANTEE SUCCESS. What it will guarantee is your best chance at success over the long term. Take the time to visit and carefully review these resources and I promise you, your success rate will increase. Before you know it, you'll be one of the sharks in this growing ocean of ours.

Here's another look at some of the top sites in the industry (most of which offer Deposit Bonuses...):

FanDuel -- DraftStreet -- DraftZone -- Fantasy Sports Live -- SportsGeek


Good luck out there!


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Kevin Cearnal 2011-04-13T09:59:15+00:00 Daily fantasy: stealing wins http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-stealing-wins/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-stealing-wins/#When:09:46:15
What follows is a compilation of stats that I feel can be a big help in predicting when guys have a good chance of being on the move, as well as circumstances that should show us that its not worth taking the chance.

But before we get into that, it is important to emphasize the point-scoring significance of the SB. On your typical daily fantasy site, the stolen bag is worth two points or roughly the equivalent of a double. And at the infrequent rate at which the SB occurs, this high value of scoring for that stat is most certainly worthwhile and warranted. So therefore it is something we would love to see happen on our daily team on a regular basis.

So how can we as the player, figure out when a guy is going to steal? Well we have to review what are the FIVE most significant stats relating to prediction of the stolen base, as chosen by yours truly. They are as follows:

Here are the eight MLB teams that averaged more than .70 steals per game in 2010

Tampa Bay Rays - 1.06
Chicago White Sox - .99
Oakland A's - .96
Seattle Mariners - .88
New York Mets - .80
Texas Rangers - .79
San Diego Padres - .77
Kansas City Royals - .71

Why this is important: It's all about philosophy. Some teams don't want to steal, while others need to if they want to have any chance at scoring runs. These 10 teams had running as a part of their offense in 2010 and, as you will see, these teams heavily correlate with some of the to top individual base stealers in the league. This is the first consideration I would like you to make when you are searching for the base stealer for your success. Is the team he plays on a team that runs?


Here are the nine MLB pitchers who allowed more than 25 SB against in 2010

A.J. Burnett - 37
Ervin Santana - 36
Fausto Carmona - 33
Tommy Hanson - 33
Carl Pavano - 31
Chris Volstad - 29
Jered Weaver - 27
Tim Lincecum - 27
John Lackey - 26

Why this is important: Some pitchers have absolutely devastating pickoff moves. Some do not. These are those guys. If the player you are considering is playing one of these pitchers who pays little attention to holding runners, there is a good chance he will take a shot at stealing a bag. Notice that all these guys are right-handed. Also notice that many of them have big strikeout numbers. These K masters often do not need to worry much about watching the runners. This is element two. How much attention will the night's pitcher be giving to the basepaths?


Here are the eight MLB players who had 40+ SBs in 2010

Juan Pierre - 68
Michael Bourn - 52
Rajai Davis - 50
Carl Crawford - 47
Brett Gardner - 47
Chone Figgins - 42
Ichiro Suzuki - 42
B.J. Upton - 42

Why this is important: These are the guys who run. You would think this would be the most important thing, and essentially it is. But the point I am trying to make is that when evaluating the stolen base prospects of your daily fantasy team, it is important to consider other factors first. I would love for my readers to get in the habit of identifying conditions first, rather than just picking a fast guy. Your opponents will be the ones doing this. And they will be the ones running into a brick wall on the bases, simply because they didn't evaluate all the factors related to stealing. Get a step ahead here, guys.


Four MLB catchers had a caught stealing percentage better than 30 percent in 2010

Yadier Molina - 49 percent
Miguel Olivo - 42 percent
Matt Wieters - 31 percent
Brian McCann - 30 percent

Why this is important: Guys do not run when they think they are going to get thrown out. These four catchers have shown over the long haul that they have the cannon needed to bust the speedsters. If a coach shuts down the basepaths because of a fabulous throwing catcher, than your guy has no shot of earning the bonus points the steals provide. So ask yourself, who's behind the dish for the opposing squad?


Five MLB catchers had a caught stealing percentage worse than 27 percent in 2010

Victor Martinez - 21 percent
Kurt Suzuki - 22 percent
Bengie Molina - 23 percent
Joe Mauer - 26 percent
A.J. Pierzynski - 26 percent

Why this is important: By the same token you need to know who can be run on. I've nicknamed this statistic the 'Mike Piazza' factor. Everybody knew they could run on the Pizza Boy and teams would take off at will against him. This list identifies those modern catchers who can be run on. Learn them. Monitor them. Utilize them. The speedsters are gonna be moving when they know they have the advantage. You as a player, need to know when it exists.

So now you have what you need. Hopefully this will help you predict as accurately as possible when the stolen base is most likely to come into play on any given night. Use it wisely. Please do realize though, that in order to steal a base, the player must first get on base. There is simply no way around this. So picking B.J. Upton when he is mired in one of his seemingly endless slumps is probably NOT a good idea. But picking B.J. during one of his hotter streaks when he's in a good 'stolen base scenario' probably is a good idea. A 2010 example isn't difficult to identify. Say it's one of the 18 divisional tilts against the Boston Red Sox. Combine the aforementioned battery of Victor Martinez and John Lackey with Upton's base stealing ability and you have what shapes up to be a base stealer's nearly ideal situation.

Keep these things in mind. Identify factors like the ones above that work in your favor. Don't look for a reason to take a base stealer. Instead, identify a series of players you are interested in. Then review the statistics relevant to base stealing and see if there is something there that can help make up your mind on a certain player. Base stealers should not be counted on as your cornerstones of daily success. But they can help shift the score in your favor on many nights. And if you can use the guys that are apt to steal on the nights that they choose to run, you will be well on your way to stealing some wins from the stiff competition that exists in the world of daily fantasy.

See you all in two weeks, for our first in-season edition of the column.
(It just makes me excited to say that)


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Kevin Cearnal 2011-03-30T09:46:15+00:00 Daily Fantasy: the K-I-S-S methodology http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-the-k-i-s-s-methodology/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-the-k-i-s-s-methodology/#When:09:19:15
When you began as a youngster this probably stood for "Keep it simple, silly." Then as you evolved into grade school ball and lower level Select, the phrasing may have been altered slightly to "Keep it simple, stupid." And alas as you graduated to what you now know was the highest level of competition you would ever play, the motto was drilled into your head as "Keep it simple, s---head." And while the final emphasis of the phrase may have changed, the meaning behind it was resoundingly similar and memorable. Don't overthink things. Do what feels natural. Go with the flow. This is a lesson that we have all benefited greatly from in our adult lives. Well at least I have (for the sake of the article let's pretend you have as well).

Well I have taken this philosophy to live by, and I have applied it to the game of Daily Fantasy Baseball. Last week's article provided you with some basic principles of the game. I've taken these principles a step further this week for you. But don't worry, I've made it as simplistic as I can for you knuckleheads. I've even used the acronym K-I-S-S to emphasis my key points. If you can comprehend these four points, then you should be well on your way to the success I've been promising to deliver in this brand new world I play in. Also included are some easy-to-read lists, making the knowledge absorption a breeze. So let the all-important lesson begin...

K Ks (strikeouts): The almighty strikeout is of the utmost importantance both for pitchers and hitters. It is one of the essential scoring elements for both sides. The top-tier of Daily Fantasy players can probably tell you the K/9 ratio of the top 12-15 starting pitchers in the game. They can also probably tell you who the 12-15 hitters are with the most Ks. That's how important this is. Let me break down the true importance of the statistic for both hitters and pitchers:

HITTERS - The main difference between the daily game and the season-long league relating to strikeouts? Well, they are simply much more devastating in the daily game. In season-long fantasy baseball it makes no difference how a player records an out (at least in typical leagues). Daily fantasy on the other hand it makes a huge difference. Let's take Adam Dunn and Prince Fielder for example. They hit .261 and .260 respectively for the 2010 season. So in a season-long league the batting average component for these two is almost identical. Their strikeout numbers, however, are not so similar. Dunn struck out an astounding 199 times during the season while Fielder amassed only 138. And Fielder had 20 more at-bats than Dunn did. Why so important, you ask? Because in the daily y game many sites actually give negative points for strikeouts. So that's the lesson to be learned here. If the site you choose to play on is one that does, you may want to think long and hard before picking players that are whiff prone.

(Top 10 strikeout leaders in 2010)

(3B) Mark Reynolds 211
(1B) Adam Dunn 199
(2B) Rickie Weeks 184
(1B) Adam LaRoche 172
(OF) Matt Kemp 170
(OF) Austin Jackson 170
(OF) Drew Stubbs 168
(OF) B.J. Upton 164
(3B) David Wright 161
(1B) Carlos Pena 158

The strikeouts these guys pile up are dangerous and, if they don't hit a HR or at least get an extra base hit, they my wind up putting up an ugly score for you. Try your best to avoid these strikeout-prone guys, except on days where they have very favorable match-ups. More will follow on that.

PITCHERS: You love the K more than life itself when it comes to the starting pitcher in Daily Fantasy Baseball. In typical league formats you only get to pick one or two pitchers to represent you on any given day. You need to make the pick(s) count. Every single league rewards fantasy pitchers for strikeouts. In this way, it is much like the season-long game. But the importance is all the more magnified when it's all on the line every, single day. You want to go with the guys that are going to score you points by making batters swing and miss. These strikeouts, coupled with a good outing as far as runs allowed, are the kick-start you need to being successful on that day. The most relevant stat to tracking the guys who are going to score big in Ks from outing-to-outing is K/9 ratio. So let's take a look at the pitchers that helped with this the most over the course of 2010.

(top 10 K/9 ratio in 2010)

Tim Lincecum 9.79
Jon Lester 9.74
Yovani Gallardo 9.73
Jonathan Sanchez 9.54
Francisco Liriano 9.44
Jered Weaver 9.35
Clayton Kershaw 9.34
Mat Latos 9.21
Josh Johnson 9.11
Cole Hamels 9.10

These guys are the kings of the K. They will rack up huge point totals for you on days they pitch. As a daily fantasy player you are also going to want to target these guys on good match-up days. Track the teams who are struggling and that strikeout frequently. Match them with these lights out pitchers and you will be on your way to striking fantasy gold. Or you can probably win some cash if thats the monetary device you prefer.

I Investment return: As I described in my initial article "A Whole New World" the standard game-type for daily fantasy is salary cap. Every player comes with a price tag. The job of the player is to determine whether the conditions of the day, such as match-ups, home/away, splits and other such stats are ideal and will maximize the return for this price.

Some players believe in the hot streaks. Others are all about the past performance in certain places, or against certain teams or pitchers. There is no exact formula for determining the optimum player for that day. But with that being said, the top players in the game will do the research and give themselves the best chance for success.

This is where projections can be helpful. A daily player who succeeds doesn't just look at a guy and some random stats and plug him in, thinking he will play well. A successful player comes up with a number that he thinks that player can obtain based on the statistics and daily factors he finds to be the most relevant. Tough decisions are going to have to be made on a daily basis. Maximizing your money is smart in any aspect of human life, but it takes work to do it successfully.

Let me end this portion of the article with an example. Albert Pujols. He is an absolute stud. But certain factors will justify paying his extremely high price tag some days, while other days he may not be such an attractive option. Here is his stat line over the past three seasons at PNC Park in Pittsburgh: 99 games, .404 AVG, 16 extra base hits, 23 RBI. That is a stat line that justifies taking him against the Pirates. Now at Dodger Stadium over that same time period his line is 31 games, .161 AVG, 3 XBH, 3 RBI. This is a small sample size, yes, but it shows that the chances of success can differ greatly for the same player based on different situations. Monitor these situations. Get a feel for what variables seem relevant and which ones seem coincidental. Once you can get a good grasp on this you will have a firm understanding of how to get the most out your investment in the salary cap format. Do some smart spending.

S Starting lineups: What? Starting lineups. Oh yeah you better believe it. If you don't have some free time for about a half hour before the first games of each day begin, DO NOT start playing Daily Fantasy Baseball. This is when the lineups are released. The two most popular, easiest (not to mention free) sites to find the announced starting lineups for the day are Rotoinfo.com and Rotoworld.com. This is a stop you have to make every day. This is where you can find the cheap fill-ins. It is also where you can figure out that Derek Jeter has strep throat and is out. It is the key to giving yourself a chance for the day. A guy also might get a surprise move up in the lineup, giving him a better chance at success.

An example that could happen this year would be if Peter Bourjos of the Angels got a nod at leadoff, since he usually bats ninth. Extra at-bats equal extra chances, and especially if it's a stolen base threat, an extra chance at points. In this world it is key to be one step ahead of the guy in front of you. And if you want to win you can never, and I mean NEVER, be behind him. Knowing the starting lineups is so simple, yet I cannot emphasize enough the essential nature of verification.

S Small stadiums: Some stadiums give up dingers and are easy to hit in. In others, you and I could go out there and throw a quality start. With the difference in dimension, climate, and quality of stadiums these days, one must know where the favorable and terrible places for a ball player to get stats are. What are the pitchers parks? What are the hitters parks? Well there are links to find this stuff out (crazy, huh?)

MLB park factors (courtesy of ESPN)

DailyBaseballData.com

You can find many more stats involving ballparks at other websites such as THT favorites Baseball Reference and Fangraphs

And the 'X' Factor - You didn't think I would end this after just the standard KISS did you? You all will come to learn that I'm much more classy than that. I'm the guy every woman and weak fantasy player dreams of. So, to go along with what I'm sure was the just the best KISS you've ever had, you also get the universal symbol for kiss the good old X. You know like XOXO. And the X in this particular scenario is the X-Factor. The most important thing that sets daily fantasy apart from standard season-long. That X-Factor is... the weather. That's right good, ol' Mother Nature. When you're playing for such high stakes on such a short time-frame this is the one element of fantasy that becomes magnified a thousand times every day.

You know how people bring up the weather to start a light conversation with someone they meet? Not in our world. In our world we discuss rain percentage chances, hour-by-hour forecasts and other such meteorology more than some people discuss who to put in their will. A variable such as weather has never, and probably will never be, included in season long fantasy strategy. But when the daily fantasy world becomes really big, which current players are convinced it will, you may see some very odd weather related fantasy strategy pop up. Things like best draining fields, most talented grounds crews and rainouts by month will all be calculated and monitored. I'm telling you, this is how serious the world of Daily Fantasy Baseball really is.

So watch the weather, consider the four K-I-S-S principles, and soak up all this knowledge. More to come next week.

Thanks for reading. Or should I say. Smooches?

Sincerely,
Kevin "KC" Cearnal

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Kevin Cearnal 2011-03-16T09:19:15+00:00 Daily Fantasy: A Whole New World http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-a-whole-new-world/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/daily-fantasy-a-whole-new-world/#When:09:46:15
This game type is very different from the traditional season—which begins with the draft, after which any and all decisions revolve around the roster you created for yourself. No my friends, in this world you will be drafting a new team every single day. That's right, you will never have to experience the long-term frustrations of being bitten by the injury bug, plagued by platoons or infuriated with off-days in the world of daily fantasy.

For intense gamers this is the ultimate in competition. The ability to play in head-to-head, multi-player and even huge tournaments on a daily basis is something that may be difficult for the season-long player to even comprehend. And the best part is you can win cash every single day if you so choose. Daily Fantasy sites feature games ranging from FREE all the way up to stakes in the hundreds of dollars. It is a cut-throat world where mistakes are punished and good decisions can be highly profitable.

In this article I will provide you with the three basic principles of this game that can and will get you started on the path to success.

Preparation
You know the countless number of hours that are spent preparing for one's draft day in the season long format? Imagine doing that, on a slightly smaller scale, every single day of the 2011 season. It is a time-consuming, and unrelenting process that consumes as much time as the player's life can allow him. Whereas a season-long player may have to choose between Neil Walker and Chone Figgins once a week when games are plentiful, a daily player is allotted the opportunity to pick ANY second baseman that's playing EVERY day of the week, among 10-15 realistic options.

So where does one begin to figure out who to select? For a 'newbie,' as we like to call rookies in the industry, the first step should be identifying statistical websites that you can use to your advantage. THT has many resources on its pages that a daily player would most certainly find very useful. Things such as generic split stats, right/lefty matchup ratings and home field batting improvement are all things that the daily fantasy player delves into for minutes to hours a day.

Your knowledge of statistical significance as it relates to individual performance is going to have to be refined and sharpened as you progress through the daily fantasy world and I hate to tell you that there is no perfect formula. But what I can tell you is that the names of daily players at the top of the earnings leaderboards across the industry are the same, and appear consistently month after month. The initial step for monetary success for these and all other profitable players in the industry is preparing long and hard on a daily basis. Every position must be scrutinized and this is where the next step begins...

Selection
The most popular game format for daily fantasy, and the one that these principles highlight, is the Salary Cap. This is a fairly straight forward competition type in which each player is presented with a set amount of money from which they select the day's players. There are two main methods of thinking when it comes to selection, which I like to call 'The Balanced Approach' and the 'Studs and Duds' Methodology.

The Balanced Approach sounds exactly like what it is. It involves putting together a lineup of players that have consistently performed well as regular starters for their prospective teams. In the salary cap format, players such as these will carry moderate-to-high price tags and should (if selected properly) put up a fairly high total point score for the day. There is very little risk in this type of lineup selection and keeps the blood pressure at a moderate level.

On the other hand, the risk takers in the industry primarily deploy the Studs and Duds Methodology. This is for the daily fantasy players with stones, as they say. This selection process involves more dedication, but can also reap bigger rewards. First, the player utilizing this process must identify two or three bench players that are getting a spot start on that day. They plug these players into their lineup, who carry very low price tags because they do not play regularly. By doing so, the player can also afford to play the cream of the crop. Albert Pujols, Carlos Gonzalez and Evan Longoria are examples of guys that come to mind who carry such high price tags that you need to make space for them by saving money somewhere.

Both methods of selection have merit, and I will debate which implementation carries with it a better long-term outlook in a later article, but for now it is just important that you all realize that these are the decisions that must be made for a fantasy player's lineup day in and day out.

So now that you've chosen your team and the games have begun you may think that all the work is left to the MLB players themselves. Not so fast...

Reflection
This is the final, and most often overlooked, portion to daily fantasy baseball success. Watch the games, people! By this I mean, both your matchups for the day, and the competition itself so that you can see things progress. You wouldn't make an investment and then just trust that it is growing over time would you? It's the same concept here. In order to learn and grow as a player you need to identify both the good and bad decisions you made and how to correct them.

Let's say for example that Ryan Howard may have gone 0-4 with a strikeout. And you may be very upset with him. But if you realize that two of his outs were line drives right at the 2B playing short right field and his strikeout was off of a devastating left-handed reliever. Knowing these things can make a big difference when it comes to your future selection of Mr. Howard.

Its things like this that make the long term difference in our game. Daily fantasy owners would agree when I say that the game reflects on every other aspect of life. Those who put in the work reap the benefits. If you outwork the others you will get ahead. And if you slack off you will get left behind.

It's a fun endeavor to undertake, but I implore you not to do so with a lack of knowledge. The established players, including myself, will be more than happy to wipe the floor with you.

In the coming weeks and months I will do my best to enlighten you to this new and evolving world. It is an ever-changing and expanding segment of the fantasy baseball industry and I myself am learning new things everyday. I'll do my best to keep you informed of happenings in this world and how you can use certain strategies to your advantage. I'll also do my best to help you exploit the weaknesses of others who are not so informed.

For now please take a look at some of the sites that will be offering Daily Fantasy Baseball in the near future:

FanDuel

DraftStreet

SportsGeek

Fantasy Sports Live

See you soon!

Kevin 'KC' Cearnal



Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Kevin Cearnal 2011-03-02T09:46:15+00:00