The Hardball Times -- Kevin Lai

Five questions: Seattle Mariners

Kevin Lai — 2012-03-22T09:13:15+00:00

The 2011 Seattle Mariners were much like the 2009 and 2010 versions—pitching was their forte but scoring enough runs was always the issue. In those three years, the Mariners have finished second to last or last in runs scored in the American League.

GM Jack Zduriencik addressed the gaping hole in the offense this offseason by trading away one of the M’s young rising stars, Michael Pineda, in exchange for Jesus Montero. The risks both sides are taking in swapping young talent are refreshing for fans—you just do not see these types of deals being done these days. The deal also makes sense for both teams, filling needs that give short- and long-term rewards in areas of previous concern. The question now is whether Montero will be able to grow into the prolific hitter we expect of him and if (and when) he can carry the Seattle offense back to relevance in the AL West race.

Is Montero the M’s long-term answer?

Montero has not yet had an official at-bat for the Mariners and he’s already considered to be the anchor for the Mariners’ offense for years to come. Montero can likely live up to the hype—even as a rookie. ZiPS projects him to hit over 20 homers with a .257/.322/.438 slash line. He projects to be a clean-up hitter in his career, but the Mariners would be smart not to place so much pressure on him during his first full big-league season.

Even so he doesn’t have huge shoes to fill, as the Mariners' 2011 catchers and designated hitters hit .220/.259/.369 and .212/.331/.332 respectively. He should fit in as the starting DH and progressively increase his starts at catcher once acclimated with the rotation and bullpen.

As a full-time DH though, his value is limited, which is why the Mariners are so adamant in developing him into an on-par defensive catcher—which will take patience and time. They may even view defensive inabilities to be balanced by having such an offense-minded catcher. This only applies if the Mariners actually have a decent option at DH though (which isn’t the case in 2012).

His ability to hit should help the Mariners score more runs from the get go—but don’t forget about the transition from Yankee Stadium III to Safeco Field. The Mariners sacrificed in an area where they are strong in depth, but that does not lessen the blow if Montero fails expectations. So far he’s been wowing the crowds at spring camp. Videos of batting practice give fans promise of better years to come.

How much will losing Pineda hurt the rotation?

Pineda was slotted to be the number two ace for the Mariners behind King Felix for over the next half decade. That all changed with the Pineda-Montero trade. The short-term pipeline of starters for the Mariners is a bit short-handed, but GM Jack made the deal knowing his top pitching prospects are not too far away from the big leagues. They could even surprise us all by making the big league club—Zduriencik has shown he isn’t afraid to start the clock early on young talent.

For 2012, Jason Vargas looks to be slotted as the M’s number two starter. Hisashi Iwakuma was brought to the Pacific Northwest on a one-year deal. A combination of Blake Beaven, Charlie Furbush and Hector Noesi (also part of the Yankee trade) will likely round out the back end of the rotation. The 2012 rotation will see a dip in production, but the Mariners have plenty of talent in their pipeline of starters – the question is how soon the Mariners would like for their clocks to start.

Their dark horse candidates come from top prospects in James Paxton, Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker. As mentioned, these three are long shots to make the big league club out of spring training—Paxton is the only one to have reached Double-A. More than likely we’ll see them get more time in the minors, with a possible September call up.

Can Ichiro bounce back?

Maybe age really has hit the ageless wonder. At 37, Ichiro Suzuki had the worst season of his career. No longer was he able to outrun groundballs for infield hits like he used to (he had 36 compared to topping 50 in 2009 and 2010). His BABIP was over 50 points below his career average (.351 compared to .295). For the first time in his career, Ichiro did not reach the 200-hit mark, finishing with 184.

Most projection systems view Ichiro to have a 2012 season somewhere in between 2011 and his career averages. Ichiro’s 2011 season is likely a culmination of poor luck and age affecting his game. The former is unpredictable, and even when you factor his continued decline due to age, it is still unlikely we will see the same poor performance from Ichiro. The likeliest outcome is a 2012 season somewhere in the middle between his poor 2011 showing and his career numbers.

Ichiro will also be mainly batting third for the first time in his career. He says it will not affect his mindset of getting on-base. Still, there are people who believe the shift in batting order will give Ichiro the opportunity to hit more home runs. There’s even mention of a wider, open stance Ichiro has debuted at spring training.

The more realistic reasoning from Manager Eric Wedge is that Ichiro will have more opportunities bringing home Chone Figgins and Dustin Ackley on singles and doubles. Of course, this all hedges on a huge assumption that Figgins can actually having a productive year as a Mariner. Wedge would rather sandwich Ichiro between the on-base hitters and the sluggers, rather than last year’s option, which didn’t work out so well.

How will the other young hitters develop?

Over the course of 2011, the Mariners called up a few of their top hitting prospects. Mike Carp showed promise in the second half of the season and hopes to continue his progress this year as the starting left fielder. In 2011, Carp hit well in his first meaningful stretch in the majors with a .276/.326/.466 slash line. He has power upside, and projects to be a decent option as a corner outfielder for 2012. With the same underlying theme as Montero—Carp only has to match a 2011 left field Mariners group that hit a combined .228/.290/.390. Carp’s main concern so far in the majors is his high BB/K ratio of 0.23. Pitchers will dare Carp to stay patient at the plate.

Justin Smoak, the guy Seattle liked more than Montero a year ago, got off to a quick 2011 start, but injuries to his thumbs mid-season limited his swing. Smoak’s season was cut short in September when he was hit in the face with a groundball. It’s looking more of a valid storyline that the Mariners made the wrong choice in prospect picking—imagine still having both Pineda and Montero on the team. Nonetheless, Smoak still has time to prove he is a capable first basemen for the Mariners—there’s no reason to believe Zduriencik has a short leash on him.

Barring any injuries, we should expect a full season from him. Most projection systems have Smoak producing a same extrapolated full season line as 2011. The Mariners are hopeful the only reason Smoak underperformed in 2011 was because of his thumb injuries—he hit just .130/.213/.176 during that time period.

Can the Mariners compete this year?

It may be a year or two early, but the trade of Pineda for Montero sets up the Mariners’ offense to be not horrible to watch. Montero and Ackley will be the core of the offense. With the pitching prospects in the pipeline, the Mariners don’t have to be an offensive juggernaut to compete—an average offense would suffice. That is if everything goes their way.

What’s unclear is whether or not the M’s believe Felix will be around for the competing years. With only two more years left on his contract, the reality is that the window of opportunity that best fits the young core of the Mariners is too far out in the future. Walker, Hultzen and Paxton are the likely pitching core Zduriencik is dreaming about to take down AL West nemeses Albert Pujols and Nelson Cruz.

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Five questions: Oakland Athletics

Kevin Lai — 2012-03-21T09:03:15+00:00

Who fills the vacant rotation spots?

With Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill departing Oakland, the A’s rotation will rely on some young arms and a couple of surgically repaired elbows. Brandon McCarthy, the A’s new found sabermetric ace, will be the Opening Day starter in Japan.

McCarthy hopes to build off his very successful 2011 campaign when he was able to increase his groundball rate and effectively use a cutter and two-seam fastball in his repertoire. The change in approach, while gradual since his days with Texas, allowed McCarthy to be one of the brighter spots in the A’s rotation, as he led all AL pitchers in FIP with a 2.86 mark.

McCarthy has come a long ways from his prospect days with the White Sox. He should be regarded for the very fact he was willing to change his approach to pitching when most people would have been too stubborn.

Oakland brought in a plethora of pitching prospects by dealing Gonzalez, Cahill, and Andrew Bailey. The ones likely to compete and win a spot in the rotation out of spring training are Jarrod Parker, Tom Milone and Brad Peacock, though they have fewer than 10 starts combined under their belts in the majors.

GM Billy Beane will have to use a combination of the trio from opening day, as Brett Anderson and Dallas Braden continue their rehab from major injuries to their elbow and shoulder, respectively. The rotation could end up being quite formidable even with the losses of Gonzales and Cahill. Anderson has shown up at camp 25 pounds lighter, and Braden is ahead of his rehab schedule and looks to join the rotation in mid-April or early May. Tyson Ross is another young option for the A’s who could see time in a starter/long relief role.

Bartolo Colon was the lone veteran starter acquired by Oakland on a one-year deal. He was likely an insurance sign to hedge all the young arms. Regardless, Colon is looking to have a second straight relatively healthy season. Doug Melvin would like Colon to be his No. 2 starter.

What happens to all the Quadruple-A first basemen?

Usually, teams have no problem filling first base. It’s typicall well-suited for a defensive liability who can hit a ton. Unfortunately, the A’s have a plethora of Quadruple-A defensive liabilities and a defensive phenom who has trouble being an acceptable hitter. This balance act for Beane has truly been his Holy Grail. This season, Chris Carter, Brandon Allen, Daric Barton and Kila Ka’aihue are looking to get on this merry-go-round.

With Manny Ramirez signed to play DH after his 50-game suspension expires, Beane will likely play out the group of four and see whether any sticks in the majors. If none pan out by the end of May, Manny will be around to help out. This will likely be the last chance Carter and Ka’aihue (his first and only chance with the A’s, as the Royals gave up on him already) will get to prove their worth in Oakland.

Allen, acquired from Arizona last trade deadline for Brad Ziegler, likely has the best chance to stick at first base. Barton may be the pseudo-incumbent with more experience at the major league level, but he has digressed at the plate since his 2010 full season.

How will the stadium situation pan out?

This question has been lingering for the past six years. When Dan Haren, Nick Swisher and Joe Blanton were traded for packages of young prospects; the idea was that the incoming players would have the opportunity to become a nucleus of an A’s dynasty in a new stadium. That dream has been kept alive, but now with a new group of prospects. It’s disheartening for A’s fans that it has taken this long to have the dialogue about a new stadium move so very little. The end is near, though.

Bud Selig’s committee will likely rule in favor of Oakland moving to San Jose. The San Jose city council also likely will approve plans for a stadium. A’s owner Lew Wolff seems confident in the situation, since he persuaded team President Michael Crowley and Beane to sign extensions through 2019. It’s highly unlikely the two executives would have agreed to the extensions without any inside information that the deal would be done soon (or maybe some sort of opt-out clause as some have suspected).

All in all, A’s fans are a bit torn. They will be moving on to their fourth city, a feat that’s never been accomplished before by any ballclub. But a new stadium means new revenue streams and, hopefully, not having to say goodbye to young, prime talents, like Gonzalez and Cahill this past offseason.

How does losing Scott Sizemore affect the club?

Oakland was dealt a bad hand in early spring training when it lost starting third basemen Scott Sizemore for the season with a torn ACL. Behind Sizemore, Oakland does not have much depth at third. The A’s will reportedly start the season with Josh Donaldson, who has spent most of his minor league career as a catcher, at the hot corner.

If Donaldson struggles to stay above the Mendoza line, look for Beane to act promptly on the trade market. A few years back, he brought in Jack Hannahan when Eric Chavez went on the disabled list in 2007. Look for the same type of replacement player to show up if Donaldson fails to impress.

Another option is the free agent market. Miguel Tejada has expressed interest in returning to Oakland, but whether Oakland would want him to start at third is another story. The move would be puzzling, if not just for the PR stunt.

Yoenis Cespedes?? Excuse me?

No one saw Yoenis Cespedes going to Oakland—I mean no one. He was rumored all winter to go to either a big-market club or the Marlins. The deal felt very un-Oakland like, but upon further inspection, the move does make some sense. Beane has had all sorts of trouble luring free agents to Oakland, even when the A's were the highest bidder. If he was going to convince anyone to come to the East Bay, it would be a foreigner who has never been to the Coliseum.

The past few big star-potential moves have not worked out in Oakland’s favor (i.e., Matt Holliday, Ben Sheets). Beane has conveyed before to the media that the higher-risk moves are the only option Oakland has due to its poor stadium and reputation.

There is no doubt $36 million is a ton to gamble on Cespedes. If a deal like this was a failure for the Yankees or Boston, it wouldn’t devastate the organization; for Oakland, it could push the A's backwards for several years. Still, the A’s are in dire need of some offense, and Cespedes could provide a good jolt, since no other hitter on the roster is projected by ZiPS to have an OPS+ over 100.

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Offseason decisions: ownership clouding baseball in Dodgertown

Kevin Lai — 2011-11-29T10:21:15+00:00

One of a series on dilemmas facing each major league teams this winter

Despite having low expectations for the 2011 season, the Los Angeles Dodgers managed to produce three great stories for their fan base—Clayton Kershaw won the Cy Young Award, Matt Kemp finished a close second in the NL MVP race while almost reaching the 40/40 plateau and...oh! the McCourts finally decided to sell the franchise via auction. Dodgers fans are gearing up and looking forward to a fresh start.

In terms of baseball, the Dodgers have already made four offseason roster moves. They signed defensive-minded Mark Ellis to replace Jamey Carroll at second base. They signed Matt Treanor to be a mentor and backup catcher. They re-signed Juan Rivera to be their everyday left fielder.

The main splash of the offseason was giving an eight-year extension to Matt Kemp in his final arbitration year. I don't see the Dodgers making any other large long-term move for the offseason. The Kemp extension was likely a recognition by the front office that any new ownership would likely approve of any Kemp signing, as the Dodgers' revenue streams are continually one of the best in the majors.

So after all this movement in November, is the front office likely to be willing to make more moves with the auction of the franchise lingering? Any trades to consider? Any free agents to target? My realistic answer is a big fat no; the Kemp deal is likely the big decision of this offseason.

But reality and necessities to compete are completely different. Fans want to see players added or traded to win games, not a business decision. With that in mind, some flaws or question marks are highlighted below, including the Dodgers' abysmal offense behind Kemp, and the thin rotation that has lost Hiroki Kuroda to free agency.

How to improve the offense?

The 2011 Dodgers ranked 11th in the National League in wOBA. Matt Kemp was supported by the cast of Aaron Miles, Rod Barajas and Tony Gwynn Jr. Still, as mentioned before, the Dodgers will likely not make any moves to have any real marginal change in their offense. The 2012 version will have to rely on comeback seasons from multiple players.

James Loney is always a question mark these days —have we already seen his development peak, or is he a late bloomer? If the Dodgers are serious about Juan Uribe as a starting third baseman, they have to hope he hits something north of his .250 wOBA in 295 plate appearances last year. Don't get me started on Ellis' offensive prowess.

In essence, next year's Dodgers will look pretty similar to this year's, with no real improvements added by the front office besides the hope of better outcomes from its current position players. The development of its younger players will be important; they'd like to see Dee Gordon, Jerry Sands and A.J. Ellis take leaps in their development.

Although Andre Ethier had 551 plate appearances, he claims to have been bothered by a knee injury throughout the season. The issue become more prevalent as he was shut down in early September to diagnose the injury and in hopes he'll be fully healed by spring training 2012. If healthy, Ethier could be a huge boost to next year's offense. Another question mark is if general manager Ned Colletti will stick to his word on trying to extend Ethier, as he's in his last year of arbitration.

Replacing Kuroda

Kuroda has been a staple of the Dodger rotation for the past four seasons—replacing him will be quite the challenge. Jon Garland, injured for most of the year, will be gone as well. Rubby De La Rosa, who started 10 games last year, also won't be able to help most of the season; his Tommy John surgery rehab will set him back to an August 2012 debut.

As of now, the rotation looks to be headed by Kershaw, Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly. In the farm system, the Dodgers have an interesting prospect in Nathan Eovaldi. After that, they'll likely look to free agent pitchers for their fourth and fifth starting rotation spots.

Guys like Rich Harden, Bartolo Colon and Aaron Harang could likely be signed to one- or two-year minimal deals. The pitching core is good; the Dodgers' starters ranked third in the National League in FIP last year. All they need to replace fourth and fifth starters is veteran pitchers who likely won't receive huge contracts due to injury risk or decline in performance.

Bullpen wise, the Dodgers lost injured Jonathan Broxton this past year, but relievers in LA managed to have quite a good season without him. Next year, the Dodgers will likely turn to Kenley Jansen, their hard-throwing right hander.

All in all, the Dodgers are in a very interesting position. They aren't at a point to rebuild, but are held back from competing for a postseason berth due to the question of what kind of ownership will be around in April 2012. Their clear weakness is the offense, but whether the front office is willing to sign or trade for new bats is a question. Dodger fans will have to wait: 2012 will likely be a lot like 2011 but without the McCourt divorce soap opera.

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CarGo developments

Kevin Lai — 2011-10-26T09:18:15+00:00

Carlos Gonzalez's 2010 breakout season had many believing his star would continue rising. The Rockies were fully on board, giving the outfielder a seven-year, $80.5 million contract extension at the end of 2010. Although his overall numbers for 2011 weren't as compelling as the previous year, CarGo managed to improve his K/BB ratio, from 3.4 to 2.2 strikeouts per walk.

One caveat to mention is Gonzalez had almost 100 less plate appearances in 2011 than in 2010 (542 PA vs. 636 PA). One could argue he could have leveled to his 2010 levels, but we like to believe that plate discipline does level off well before the 500 PA plateau. Just placing into perspective for those non-believers, Gonzalez would have had to strike out once every three plate appearances and take away eight walks to reach his 2010 figures.

What's not so easy to determine is in what way has his plate discipline improved. He saw about the same amount of pitches per plate appearance in both seasons (about 3.5 pitches). He's swinging less in general though, as his swing rate decreased to 48 percent from 2010's 52 percent mark. His swinging strikes rate has been close to 11 percent in both years too, well above the league average of eight percent.

Carlos' whiffs

It's a bit surprising a player could cut down on his strikeouts (and up his walks) but not cut down on his whiffs. I did some analysis on the change in the swinging strikes; where he missed, what type of pitches he missed on, and such. Below are the 2010 and 2011 graphs of the location of Gonzalez's whiffs.

Just from eyeballing the two graphs, we can see the slight change on the missed balls Carlos committed to. The cluster of points in 2011 look less clustered on the outside part of the plate. Looking at location of the whiffs doesn't seem to have changed too much though, at least nothing worthy of any statistical change.

Instead, I looked at Gonzalez's whiffs based on the speed of the pitch. Below is a breakdown of whiffs based off speed, with fastball defined as any pitch greater than 89 mph.

		FA (> 89mph)	Offspeed (< 89mph)	Total pitches
2010 whiffs	32.3%		67.7%			257
2011 whiffs	26.2%		73.8%			221

CarGo has missed on less fastballs in 2011 than in 2010. The shift in whiffs is there, but not at any level we can be confident the shift is real, talent wise (i.e. - I found no significance in a test for independence).

He is swinging less

As noted earlier, CarGo is swinging less in 2011. Below is a summary of swing rates from Fangraphs' BIS data:

			O-Swing %	Z-Swing %	Swing %
2010			37.0%		70.8%		52.2%
2010 Average		29.3%		64.4%		45.6%
2011			35.6%		67.6%		48.9%
2011 Average		30.6%		65.0%		46.2%

His swing rate has declined in both out-of-the-zone and in-the-zone metrics. Compared to the league averages however, Carlos still swings on more occasions.

If we look at the location of pitches taken by CarGo, we see a pattern developing.

The 2d density graphs show where the pitches taken by Gonzalez tend to cluster (the smaller circle shapes can be interpreted as a higher amount of clustered pitches). It is evident that Gonzalez has developed a bit more patience on pitches on the inside part of the plate. A possible reason for this adjustment could be Gonzalez's development for the feel of the called strike zone (i.e. - for lefties, the strike zone is shifted toward the outside part of the plate than the rule book zone).

Conclusions

The primary question mark or flaw in Gonzalez's game was his lack of discipline at the plate. Even though he was still very young, it was the main reason Billy Beane felt comfortable trading him in a package to the Rockies for Matt Holliday. The abysmal plate discipline was just too high of a hurdle for Beane to be comfortable with.

While his plate improvements over the past two years did not take a giant leap like his offensive numbers (almost wining the Triple Crown in 2010), the climb towards the mediocre range of walk and strikeout rates is quite an accomplishment for this free swinger. The Rockies will take any improvements from their big-time investment.

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Baseball across the sea

Kevin Lai — 2011-10-05T09:28:15+00:00

A while ago, I wrote an article on the Taiwanese professional leagues, so I thought I'd move on to another Asian country and provide a profile on the status of professional baseball in South Korea. Sports-wise, baseball is probably the second most popular sport in the country, after soccer.

Korea's baseball roots can be traced back to the early 20th century and the missionary treks throughout Asia. The sport became an official professional league in 1982, when the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) formed the Korea Professional Baseball league (KPB). The KBO also formed the Futures League, which acts as the KPB's minor league system.

The league started with six teams and currently has eight, with a ninth to debut in 2013. The teams are located all over South Korea, with three in the Seoul (South Korea's capital) metropolitan area and another not too far in Incheon (a sister city 20 miles west of Seoul).

The nine teams currently playing are the SK Wyverns (Incheon), Doosan Bears (Seoul), LG Twins (Seoul), Nexen Heroes (Seoul), Lotte Giants (Busan), Hanwha Eagles (Daejeon), Kia Tigers (Gwangju), Samsung Lions (Daegu) and NC Dinos (Changwon—will appear in the league in 2013, with its minor league team starting in 2012).

Teams are named in the same way as in other Asian baseball leagues, like in Japan and Taiwan, after the conglomerate firm that owns the team. Some organizations, like the Lotte Giants or the Samsung Lions have not changed names since becoming league members. On the other hand, some teams have changed ownership a few times. For instance, the current Nexen Heroes have changed ownership several times; they were once known as the Taepyeongyang Dolphins (1988-1995) and the Hyundai Unicorns (1996-2007). Take a look at Craig Robinson's nice infographic below on historical KPB team name and location changes.

Popularity

The above graphic shows us the two steep climbs in attendance over the course of KPB's history. The league steadily increased its popularity, reaching its first peak in 1995. We see a decline in attendance that lasted for about a decade following the 1995 peak. The second spike came in 2007, with an increase of more than a million tickets sold compared to 2006. Subsequent years have also shown increased attendance figures.

This past year has seen the highest total in attendance for the KPB—6.75 million people attending baseball games. An explanatory variable for the increase in popularity could be due to Korea's national team placing fairly high in recent international baseball tournaments; they won the 2008 Olympic games as well as placing well in the 2006 and 2009 World Baseball Classic.

Despite being located in Busan, Korea's second most populous city, the Lotte Giants held the highest attendance rate in 2011. The Giants have been quite popular for some time, as some would consider them to be the equivalent of Nippon Professional Baseball's (NPB) Yamiuri Giants or MLB's New York Yankees.

The Nexen Heroes of Seoul, Korea's most populous city, had the lowest attendance figures in 2011, though a lot of that may have to do with them being in existence for only three years.

Korea Series and playoffs

Teams play 133 games throughout the year. The playoffs system allows the top four teams to compete at the season's end. The playoffs consist of three rounds:

First round—Third and fourth place teams face off in a best of five series.

Second round—Winner of the first round plays the second place team in another best of five (used to be a seven game series, but changed in 2009).

Korea Series—Best of seven series featuring the first place team against the second round winner.

In the first two decades the KPB was dominated by the Tigers, who won nine Korea Series tournaments. Back then known as the Haitai Tigers, they've come down a bit from their legacy days, but they've also had recent success; they won the 2009 Korea Series.

The dominant team over the past four years has been the SK Wyverns, as they have won three of the past four Korea Series (they lost the 2009 Series to the Tigers). Every team has won the Korea Series except for the Heroes; again, the youngest team of the bunch.

Some unique rules

The league copies MLB's American League structure by having the Designated Hitter rule. The league also has a rule to ensure enough Korean nationals are playing professionally—a two player cap on foreign players per team.

What's interesting about this rule is the effect it has on the Korean baseball market and what the teams address with this two-player max. Of the eight current teams (totaling 16 foreign players allowed), only two are position players, while the rest are pitchers (one a closer, the rest are starters). This seems a bit telling. Apparently the Koreans see foreign pitching as the better option when allocating these two spaces. Perhaps pitching isn't a focal point in the Korean amateur ranks. I guess Byung-Hyun Kim and Chan Ho Park were exceptions.

Another rule that some Americans may be familiar with is the required two-year military service time in Korea. It applies to all Korean males, even if you are one of the few playing professional baseball. The only exception is given to those on the national team who win a major international tournament. In the case that I'm referring to, Shin-Soo Choo was allowed an exemption to the rule once the national team won the Asian Games in 2010. I guess international glory for your country is equivalent to a two year commitment!

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Postseason Rangers: Can the AL champs repeat?

Kevin Lai — 2011-09-28T09:28:15+00:00

For the second straight year, the Texas Rangers will be playing postseason ball. There was a slight hiccup in August/September when the Angels came as close as 1.5 games behind the Rangers. Other than that, the Rangers never really had much of an issue in the American League West.

It really helps when half of the division is comprised of the A's and Mariners— the Rangers went 28-10 against these two clubs. The Angels were a bit tough, but over the course of September action they were able to distance themselves from those pesky Halos.

These Rangers have big shoes to fill

Coming into the season as defending American League Champions, there were high hopes for this team. General Manager Jon Daniels started the offseason by aggressively approaching big free agent names, as Nolan Ryan and the ownership group gave approval for a bigger budget.

They flailed on one big name, but were able to sign Adrian Beltre to a six year deal. Mike Napoli also joined the offensive-minded group via a trade from the Angels through Toronto. The big target sign didn't seem to bother them, as the Rangers won nine of their first 10 games in April.

Pitching depth no longer an issue

Unlike past years, the Rangers have had a solid starting rotation in 2011. Their starting five has stayed relatively healthy and consistent, ranking third in the American League in FIP. What's surprising is the Rangers were able to have so much success by relying on three young starters who had never before reached the plateau of full-time starter.

Derek Holland surprised crowds this season, highlighted by his four complete game shutouts. Matt Harrison was able to mark his first really successful season and Alexi Ogando slipped into the rotation almost too well after an injury to Tommy Hunter in spring training left the number five spot open.

All in all, the three youngsters have allowed the Arlington crowd to forget the offseason spurn by Cliff Lee.

C.J. Wilson, the converted closer, has also quieted doubters who believed the Rangers needed an ace like Lee to lead the rotation. C.J. improved his peripherals this season, as he's lowered his walk rate and increased his strikeout rate.

The biggest question mark General Manager Jon Daniels addressed at the July 31st trade deadline was his bullpen. Worry and doubt spread due to Neftali Feliz's inconsistencies and the fact that there was no one else for manager Ron Washington to rely on. Last year's reliever corps proved inconsistent this year, as is seen in almost every other bullpen. Daniels addressed these concerns reasonably well by trading for Koji Uehara and Mike Adams.

The offensive juggernaut

A big hypothetical question about the Rangers this season regards Michael Young and his request to be traded by the only franchise he has ever known. What if they had traded him away for pennies on the dollar? Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz were out for big chunks of the season with various injuries, thus the offense had to rely on others.

Young, along with new comers Mike Napoli and Adrian Beltre, who were supposed to take away his playing time, carried the weight of the offense. Ian Kinsler also provided a punch by having the healthiest season of his career, racking up more than 700 plate appearances, most by any Ranger this season.

Having a utility All-Star in Young worked for the Rangers, as those nagging injuries to Hamilton, Cruz and others allowed Washington to spread plate appearances to all of his players. All in all, the offense kept rolling despite injuries to at least one or two integral pieces of the offense during parts of the season: the disabled list was a like rotating door—one leaves and another player goes in.

Another formidable run in the making?

The Rangers are heavily relying on the health of their offensive stars, and the opportune chance their pitching will perform like it has all year long. We know the offense can score, but getting great starts by a rotation that has performed well over the season could lead to another great postseason run from the Rangers. Success also rides on the health of their offensive starters—specifically Hamilton, Cruz and Beltre— all of whom have spent plenty of time on the disabled list.

As we saw last year, Washington will likely stick to a four man rotation. The odd man out will likely be Ogando, as they would like to keep him under a maximum innings count. C.J. will likely be followed by Colby Lewis, Holland and finally Harrison. The bullpen looks adequate, perhaps even formidable, with the trades that Daniels made at the end of July. Darren Oliver will likely see action as well, as the team's main lefty reliever.

Another thing to mention is the Rangers' record against the Tigers (3-6) and Yankees (2-7) this season. While we can only speculate about how these 18 games project onto the postseason, it's still a little concerning. The Ranger's pitching could not contain the Yankee offense during those nine games, allowing on average 6.8 runs to cross home plate. Their run prevention will be quite important when facing these two offenses, and could determine the direction of the Rangers' postseason run.

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Name that tune

Kevin Lai — 2011-09-07T09:07:15+00:00

I always look forward to player's walk up-songs when I go to a ballgame. They can give you a glimpse into the player's personality. Not only the type of music they prefer, but what gets them settled into a game situation. Whether that be a pump-up song, something calming or something that connects them to their spiritual roots, I think it's always an entertaining moment for fans to enjoy, even if you don't like the player's taste in music.

With that in mind, I tried my best to compile a list of every player's introduction song, if available. It was pretty hit or miss: about half the team's official websites do list player songs for fans, while the other half choose to keep us in the dark (and another one chooses to use organs all the time). I couldn't find any team from the AL West that posted their songs. In the end of my long search, I came up with 241 players in my sample.

As you can see, Rock and Hip Hop are quite popular among players, with Latin and Country music ranking third and fourth. Below you'll find some additional graphs that breakdown the types of music chosen by players even further.

Looks like every team has a wide variety of songs chosen by its players. I could only find four Mets' player's songs, which is why there is not much variation in genre selection.

Pitchers tend to use Rock or Country moreso than hitters, who enjoy the beats of Hip Hop and Latin music.

Top Songs

Here are the top three most-used songs:
{exp:list_maker}Hustle Hard by Ace Hood: Denard Span, Jose Reyes, Rickie Weeks, Jemile Weeks (brotherly love?), Matt Kemp, and Pablo Sandoval
My Kinda Party by Jason Aldean: Roy Oswalt, Logan Morrison, Zack Greinke, Todd Helton and Phil Coke
I'm On One by DJ Khaled: Danny Valencia, Ryan Howard, Rickie Weeks, Mike Stanton and Bill Hall {/exp:list_maker}
Other songs that were used more than twice were: All of the Lights by Kanye West, Crawl by Kings of Leon, Danza Kuduro by Don Omar, Deliverance by Bubba Sparx, Enter Sandman by Metallica, In the Air Tonight by Phil Collins, The Show Goes On by Lupe Fiasco, Traigo Fuego by Jose Pena Suazo and Whistlin' Dixie by Randy Houser.

Download the Excel file here if you'd like. If you know where other teams are hiding this very invaluable information, please let me know!

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More Chernoffs

Kevin Lai — 2011-08-26T06:59:15+00:00

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Wang in the capital

Kevin Lai — 2011-08-24T06:54:15+00:00

After waiting 17 months, the Washington Nationals finally saw their free-agent signee Chien-Ming Wang (pronounced "Wong") pitch in the big leagues on July 29. Great comeback story so far, but whether he is capable of his past success as a Yankee is still up in the air.

Background facts

Wang signed with the Yankees in 2000 after their bonus offer beat out the Mariners. The Taiwanese media were surprised the Yankees were so aggressive, as he was not viewed as one of their nation's top prospects. Wang was more of a conventional starter—a straight, hard four-seamer sparked the Yankees' interest at the time. It was only when Wang made the Triple-A Scranton team that minor league pitching coach Neil Allen advised him to try the sinker. Due to his height and ability to place ample pressure on the seams with his index-finger, the sinker became his signature pitch.

As a Yankees starter, Wang's best seasons came in 2006 and 2007: He won 19 games in each season. Despite the success, he was not as dominant as the media would portray him. His strikeout rates were below average. The ability to induce ground balls was his real weapon, which allowed him to eat up innings while having ample rest in the dugout between innings, as his teammates gave him the best run support in the league during that time frame.

Then the injuries started. Wang's first major injury came as a shock, as he tore a ligament and a muscle in his right foot while running the bases during interleague play. After coming back in 2009, he ran into a terrible stretch of his career, looking uncomfortable on the mound. Many speculated he was still bothered by his 2008 freak injury. It was also noted that his release point was 5 inches higher to compensate for the pain. He would eventually need season-ending shoulder surgery, rendering him unable to help the team further in its subsequent World Series championship.

Since then, Wang has been working his way back to the majors, a journey that has taken more than two years. He signed two consecutive deals with the Nationals, the latest being a one-year, $1 million contract with performance incentives up to an extra $4 million.

So far, so-so

During his time with the Yankees, Wang mostly used a combination of his sinker with a slider and a change-up. Wang would use his off-speed pitches to make sure hitters would not just wait on a lifeless sinker. It kept hitters honest, to a degree, as he induced a slightly below average whiff rate during 2006 and 2007.

So far in 2011, he has showcased his usual sinker and slider, but has replaced his change with a split-finger fastball (though I can't find any instances where his "old" change-up was not in fact a split finger grip). His current slider looks to cluster in two distinct groups: One is a sweeping slider, the other drops in a more slurve—11-to-5 curve fashion.

In the five starts Wang has made for the Nats this year (up to his Aug. 21 start), he's been able to showcase a groundball rate consistent with his career numbers (a 55 percent rate compared to his 59 percent career rate). His K/9, though, has hit an all-time low, coming in at 2.33. This can be explained in part by his 3.8 percent whiff rate, well below the league average.

Wang uses his sinker to both lefties and righties, but likes to use his slider against right handers, and his splitter to left handers.

Hitters have been making contact on Wang's pitches at above 90 percent, well above the league mark of 81 percent this year. This is mainly due to his absurd 88 percent outside the strike zone contact rate. It's not conclusive, but it seems like hitters are having a jolly time making contact against Wang. So far the defense behind him has been able to handle the duties (whether these balls are weakly induced or are scorched off the bat is another question) with minimal damage, as his opponent BABIP is hovering .250.

Conclusions

It's probably too early to predict anything meaningful for Wang's future. But so far in 2011, Wang has shown his ability to induce ground balls at around the same clip as he did pre-injury. What's not apparent is whether good results are sustainable when hitters are making that much contact.

Wang's health is also a major consideration, as he took more than two years to recover from shoulder surgery. Taiwanese youth are notorious for their strenuous bullpen sessions and practices. Pitchers' arms have trended toward deteriorating at an early age. Not saying he's injury prone, but looking at past Taiwanese pitchers' records in the majors does make you wonder about Wang's future.

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Oakland’s potential triumvirate

Kevin Lai — 2011-08-04T09:03:15+00:00

In Billy Beane's lone acquisition at the non-waiver trade deadline, a reliever was swapped for a first baseman prospect. Listed at 6-2, 285 pounds, the 25-year-old hulk coming from Arizona is known for his longball shots and high strikeout rate balanced by a high walk rate. He has Moneyball charisma written all over him. Should Beane and the Athletics organization give him a fair shot in the big leagues, the rewards could be ample.

Except for one thing: Brandon Allen is the third hyped power prospect to land in Oakland in the past few years, Chris Carter and Michael Taylor being the others. Now all three prospects are playing at Oakland's Triple-A affiliate—for the time being.

Adding Allen to the picture definitely confuses things, but one thing is certain: Beane is trying to mitigate the risk that Carter or Taylor will flop in the majors. At the cost of a reliever, there was not much risk involved in committing to Allen as another viable option. Oakland is in dire need of legitimate hitters these days.

His name is Vernon

Carter was drafted in the 15th round in 2005 by the Chicago White Sox. After being traded to the D-Backs (via Carlos Quentin) and then to the A's (via Dan Haren), he managed to work his way up the minor leagues, developing some prolific power. He was named Oakland's minor league organizational player of the year in 2008, when he bombed 39 home runs in Single-A ball. His continued power success got A's fans excited for his inevitable call-up to the majors.

However, very little of Carter's minor league self came out during his first taste of the majors in 2010. He was overly aggressive, as he went 0-19, with nine strikeouts and one walk. He would end up starting his career at 0-33 after his second call-up, but Carter had an excellent last week of the season by blasting three homers.

Season	Team	G	PA	H	HR	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	wOBA
2006	White Sox (R)	69	294	75	15	11.60%	23.80%	0.271	0.359	0.422
2006	White Sox (A)	13	52	6	1	9.60%	32.70%	0.130	0.179	0.238
2007	White Sox (A)	124	537	132	24	12.50%	20.50%	0.224	0.327	0.394
2008	Athletics (A+)	137	596	131	39	12.90%	26.20%	0.310	0.290	0.400
2009	Athletics (AAA)	13	58	14	4	5.20%	24.10%	0.259	0.270	0.335
2010	Athletics (AAA)	125	551	120	31	13.20%	25.00%	0.271	0.296	0.384
2010	Athletics	24	78	13	3	9.00%	26.90%	0.143	0.213	0.265
2011	Athletics (A+)	6	28	8	3	14.30%	28.60%	0.375	0.385	0.478
2011	Athletics (AAA)	41	184	39	9	11.40%	27.20%	0.247	0.294	0.355
2011	Athletics	10	32	4	0	6.30%	43.80%	0.000	0.250	0.155

Coming into the 2011 season, it was a given that Beane needed to improve Oakland's offense, but from what source was unknown. Beane opted to use the free agent market and trades to clog Oakland's DH/corner outfield situation to the point where Carter was the odd man out, sent packing to Sacramento.

If you glance at his minor league numbers, it is very apparent Carter is your typical Adam Dunn slugger: Lots of strikeouts and walks mixed in with the long ball. Unfortunately, in his very short stints in the majors, he has not been able to produce the same results.

Looking at the 110 plate appearances he has made in the majors, he has a 65.8 percent contact rate, well below the 81 percent league average. It's most likely the product of a small sample size, as the 25 year old really needs to be given a clear shot at proving himself in the majors. Rookies are known for their growing pains, right?

Michael Taylor (left) and Chris Carter (right) in the comfort of Triple-A ball. (Icon/SMI)

The Cardinal back in the Bay Area

Michael Taylor came to Oakland by means of the Roy Halladay trade a couple years ago. The trade lineage essentially went from Carlos Gonzalez to Matt Holliday to Brett Wallace, finally landing Taylor in Oakland. That's the whole shebang in one sentence.

Season	Team	G	PA	H	HR	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	wOBA
2007	Phillies (A-)	66	261	53	6	8.80%	20.30%	0.137	0.267	0.317
2008	Phillies (A)	67	288	90	10	10.80%	14.90%	0.193	0.404	0.447
2008	Phillies (A+)	65	266	80	9	7.10%	17.30%	0.230	0.374	0.411
2009	Phillies (AA)	86	363	106	15	9.60%	14.00%	0.236	0.357	0.438
2009	Phillies (AAA)	30	128	31	5	10.20%	14.80%	0.209	0.292	0.375
2010	Desert Dogs (R)	30	128	30	2	12.50%	13.30%	0.130	0.315	0.379
2010	Athletics (AAA)	127	523	126	6	9.80%	17.60%	0.121	0.325	0.336
2011	Athletics (AAA)	64	275	68	12	11.60%	19.30%	0.201	0.318	0.373

Unlike the other two prospects, Taylor has not been given a chance to play in the majors, despite being the oldest of the three. This is mainly due to his poor 2010 season with the River Cats (Triple-A). He has bounced back from last year and looks to be having a nice season so far in Sacramento. But then again, it is the Pacific Coast League we are talking about...

The Fangraphs darling

Allen has been blocked by veterans in the D-Backs system at first base this season. It's a similar situation that Carter found himself in this year as well in Oakland. With injuries and unsuccessful platooning with their first base options, Arizona opted to pass on Allen and give their Double-A star Paul Goldschmidt a shot. Thus, Allen (and a reliever named Jordan Norberto) became expendable in an exchange for Oakland's Brad Ziegler.

The deal might not have even occurred if it weren't for Boston's distaste for Rich Harden's medical records. (In return, Oakland would have landed Lars Anderson).

Season	Team	G	PA	H	HR	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	wOBA
2006	White Sox (A)	109	427	84	15	5.20%	29.50%	0.167	0.267	0.288
2007	White Sox (A)	127	556	143	18	6.80%	21.80%	0.200	0.336	0.359
2008	White Sox (A+)	89	368	89	15	11.10%	22.60%	0.248	0.335	0.402
2008	White Sox (AA)	41	173	42	14	11.00%	23.70%	0.340	0.286	0.425
2009	White Sox (AA)	62	274	70	7	10.90%	17.20%	0.162	0.335	0.372
2009	White Sox (AAA)	15	61	16	1	0.00%	21.30%	0.115	0.319	0.282
2009	Diamondbacks (AAA)	38	167	47	12	12.00%	15.00%	0.317	0.324	0.458
2009	Diamondbacks	32	116	21	4	10.30%	34.50%	0.183	0.283	0.288
2010	Diamondbacks (AAA)	107	469	97	25	17.70%	20.30%	0.267	0.281	0.407
2010	Diamondbacks	22	56	12	1	17.90%	35.70%	0.133	0.440	0.351
2011	Diamondbacks (AAA)	83	378	93	18	16.90%	23.80%	0.272	0.371	0.428
2011	Diamondbacks	11	37	5	3	18.90%	35.10%	0.310	0.154	0.358

Allen has similar K/BB numbers as Carter and shows the same signs of power. In fact, Carter and Allen are originally from the White Sox organization, having played Single-A ball together in 2006 and 2007 before Carter was flipped to Arizona. (They both went through the D-Backs, too. Wow!)

Along the same lines as Carter, Allen has a 67.3 percent contact rate in the majors (in 209 plate appearances). But on top of that—small sample I know—during his short stint with Arizona this year, of his five hits, three were homers.

The future of the club

All said and done, the success of Oakland in this decade relies heavily on its ability to pick out the right prospects in trades and drafts; there is very little room for error. With no new stadium plan, the A's are stuck with poor revenue streams and no real way to lure any free agents (see Adrian Beltre 2010 and 2011, Marco Scutaro 2010).

It is hard to imagine Beane will attempt—for the fourth or fifth straight time this offseason—to build an offensive core around aging designated hitters or light-hitting fielders.

With most of his supporting cast free agents this upcoming offseason, it should mark a good time for Oakland to try out its latest prospects. Carter and Allen may even find themselves in the majors quite soon this season. But the clock is ticking on all three, as fans love to give out the "Quadruple-A player" title left and right.

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