The Hardball Times -- Kent Williams http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-06-19T08:32:15+00:00 Fantasy: 20-20 All-Stars (Hitters) http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fantasy-20-20-all-stars-hitters/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fantasy-20-20-all-stars-hitters/#When:04:04:15
The only “formula” involved in these eight selections is my rough estimate of actual production, divided by what I thought they were worth preseason. If you own two or more of these guys, your team should be doing OK. So far …

C Russ Martin, Dodgers. On May 5, poolies examining the minor-league stats of this unheralded 23-year-old saw 74 at-bats in Triple-A with no homers, a few doubles and a decent batting eye. That made him a lukewarm potential replacement for anyone who actually owned foul-tip victim Dioner Navarro. Others who plucked Martin off the waiver wire, claiming they knew what would happen, are probably members of his immediate family.

His profile might have been higher had he played for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic, but Martin declined that invitation, trying to impress the L.A. brain trust in spring training. He had an instant impact as an emergency Dodger: the floundering 13-17 club suddenly won 18 of his first 22 starts. Less than two months later, Navarro’s been traded and Martin is the number one backstop in a pennant race.

Ausmusian glove work got Martin drafted as high as the 17th round. The storybook debut has been at the plate, not behind it. A 1-for-20 slump in the final week of May dropped him to .253/.345/.387 (respectable enough for a young catcher), but instead of fading, Martin responded with a torrid .329/.380/.494 June. Stealing three bases in two games against the Pirates last week was an exclamation point of sorts for our overall first-half Blind Squirrel Award winner.

Because 20-20 recognizes “best performance by the least likely,” the catching race was decided by a mere nod over highly improbable slugger Mike Napoli. The Angels backup, who began the season completely off the radar behind phenom Jeff Mathis, has notched counting stats similar to Martin’s in fewer at-bats. While everyone else waits for Napoli to come back down to earth, his owners keep enjoying the ride.

2B Dan Uggla, Marlins. How often does a Rule 5 selection pay immediate dividends? The rare $50,000 players who stick with their new teams all year tend to be backup infielders and middle relievers. Despite his opportunity with the Marlins, there was nothing to recommend Uggla, left unprotected by the Diamondbacks. At 26, Uggla still looked like organizational filler, not a prospect who could skip Triple-A and show dramatic improvement.

Undrafted in most leagues, Uggla didn’t do much in his first couple of weeks, but manager Joe Girardi, whose outfielders were hitting even worse, shook things up by moving him into the 2-hole. In mid-April, visiting the Smallpark in Ohio, the rookie homered in consecutive games, which inflated his OPS to .857, but by the end of the month, he’d dropped back to .253/.319/.410, and had struck out in six of his last nine at-bats.

Then he got hot again for a few days, making his job even more secure. In the absence of better middle infield alternatives, I decided on May 4 to pick him up, only to discover I’d been scooped—at 5:30 a.m.—by a rival owner who either stays up much later than me, or rises much earlier. To the astonishment of all, Uggla turned into the poor man’s Chase Utley, a 5-category contributor. Prior to a recent hamstring problem that sidelined him for eight games, Uggla was a no-brainer over Brandon Phillips at this contentious position.

SS Mark DeRosa, Rangers. Among “real” shortstops, presumed stars, including Jhonny Peralta and Bobby Crosby, have disappointed. Other regulars, like Khalil Greene, Russ Adams, Clint Barmes and J.J. Hardy, failed (for various reasons) to show anticipated improvement. There really isn’t an outstanding candidate who actually plays short, but in fantasy ball, the key is SS eligibility. In many formats, like the farce called inter-league play, Troy Glaus is now the world’s biggest, strongest shortstop.

At 31, DeRosa was typecast as a utility player: able to hit lefty pitching, no threat versus righthanders. Never was that split more pronounced than in 2005, his first season with the Rangers, when he smacked .322/.412/.627 in 59 at-bats against southpaws, compared to an anemic .191/.265/.315 in 89 at-bats against righties. Small sample size or not, it confirmed his reputation: useful 23rd man on a real club, zero fantasy value.

Fate intervened when rookie second baseman Ian Kinsler dislocated his thumb. An ankle injury left DeRosa unavailable through most of April, but after using D’Angelo Jimenez for a couple of weeks, Buck Showalter was understandably thrilled to pencil DeRosa in at second, batting ninth. The career understudy proceeded to have a career month.

By the time Kinsler returned, the red-hot DeRosa had become the skipper’s “irregular regular,” in the lineup nearly every day. Thanks to his unprecedented offensive surge—.329/.385/.465—against righties, Mark moved up to fifth in the potent Rangers order for a while, and has been batting second lately. Owners of Kevin Mench and Brad Wilkerson are justifiably furious when they sit, but DeRosa is in there until he cools off.

RF Alexis Rios, Blue Jays. As an emergency-callup rookie in 2004, Rios showed tremendous range (when he got a decent jump) and an occasionally-erratic gun, but was prone to brain cramps in the field and on the bases. During batting practice, Alex could extend his arms, routinely hitting frozen-rope homers to all fields. In games, he frequently seemed overmatched at the plate, his swing inside-out and tentative.

In 2005, his first full season, the 6’5” Puerto Rican did improve from one home run to 10 (prompting me to “predict” 100 this year) and became a more consistent outfielder, but his pitch-recognition skills seemed to regress. Rios showed only intermittent flashes of the exciting tools that reminded a few observers of a taller Roberto Clemente. Many Toronto fans—from radio call-in bozos to astute analysts—demanded a trade.

Unless it was a brilliant inspirational ploy, the Grapefruit League news that Rios would be the smaller part of a right field platoon with Eric Hinske this year suggested that the Jays were also losing faith in his development. Not even a “fanboy” like me could recommend owning him. Hitting coach Mickey Brantley helped him make some physical and mental adjustments, and Rios has proved countless naysayers wrong.

Yes, he cooled off for a couple of weeks in June, and there’s certainly no guarantee he’ll stay in Bobby Abreu’s class all season. Forecasting what Rios will do in the second half and in years to come depends on whether you consider his first half an arrival or a fluke.

CF Corey Patterson, Orioles. As mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the Cubs were determined to use “tough love” as a motivational tool for their disappointing former number one pick, while the Orioles staff has been more supportive. Hitting coach Terry Crowley developed a close personal rapport with Patterson while tweaking his approach, and two former Cubs managers, bench coach Lee Elia and third-base coach Tom Trebelhorn, also deserve kudos for their patience and understanding.

Patterson isn’t very good against lefties and won’t have nearly as much impact on the AL East as he does on a Roto team, where his 29 steals (in just 33 attempts!) are impossible to ignore. The occasional power is a bonus, and there’s no reason to assume he won’t keep getting on base at a .330 clip.

Among other deserving center field candidates, Curtis Granderson, a better player than Patterson on a much better team, was a tremendous bargain in many leagues. Eric Byrnes has been shockingly good.

LF Raul Ibanez, Mariners. We'd almost forgotten the second half of 2001, when Ibanez blossomed into a solid offensive performer, and his career year in 2002. Three ordinary seasons later, it appeared that he’d settled in as a well-compensated .800 OPS type. At 34, his completely unexpected June power surge earned this very close call.

Until recently, the easy winner would have been Nick Swisher, whose season is going in the opposite direction. After being overlooked in many drafts, he burst out of the gate with 10 home runs and a 1.142 OPS in April, continued to pound the ball in May and slumped to .218 with just three homers this month.

3B Freddy Sanchez, Pirates. On May 1, Joe Randa suffered a bone bruise. The next day, manager Jim Tracy, who had been using Sanchez sparingly at second, hitting seventh or eighth, inserted him at third base, batting third. Since an RBI double in the first inning, he’s been impossible to get out of the lineup. (Randa, a modern-day Wally Pipp, probably hopes there’s truth to recent trade rumors. It’s been a truly horrible season; he’s currently on bereavement leave after the death of a family member.)

The last week of May, a 10-for-13 stretch, raised Freddy’s average to .352, and a month later, it’s at .349—“counting three times” in BBFL, where OBP and SLG are categories. In 5x5 leagues, Sanchez isn’t quite as valuable; he’s not a source of homers or steals. However, he probably qualifies at second base and shortstop, where he’s an even more pleasant surprise to those who stuck with him longer than I did in April, or grabbed him as a free agent.

The Red Sox have two contenders for our third base nod. After his disastrous 2005 campaign, Mike Lowell figured to benefit from the change of parks, just not this much. Spring questions about playing time for Kevin Youkilis made him slip down many draft lists; he’s answered them with his bat.

1B Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers. After three injury-plagued seasons in five years, and with his production down even when “healthy” compared to his awesome peak from 1998 to 2000, not many people expected Nomar to hit like a first baseman ever again.

At 33, playing home games in a pitchers’ park, his .424 OBP and .590 SLG are simply astounding, and concerns about his durability, aggravated when he missed the first couple of weeks with a rib cage injury, are beginning to fade. Having shortstop and third base eligibility in most leagues makes him a first-half fantasy MVP for those who took the risk.

Scott Hatteberg was briefly considered for this dubious honor, in part because Wayne Krivsky deserves accolades for so many moves. The rookie general manager with the alchemist’s touch can wait until next week, when we review the biggest bargains among fantasy pitchers.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Kent Williams 2006-06-30T04:04:15+00:00 Fantasy: Lucky or Talented? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fantasy-lucky-or-talented/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fantasy-lucky-or-talented/#When:04:01:15
Similarities do exist, of course. One of them is the role luck plays on a winning team.

It’s a game of inches, we’re frequently reminded. Actually, that brush is much too broad. The “heroic” walk-off grand slam is a tiny fraction of an inch from a “choking” bases-loaded popup. Can the result be explained by the relative talent of the pitcher and batter? Is it predictable by any algorithm? Nope, it just happens. Invisible, impossible-to-measure factors with enormous effects aren’t exclusively the realm of physicists.

The scientific approach to baseball is best viewed through a telescope. The larger the sample size, the more relevant the data. Under the microscope of each particular pitch, events appear almost random. Assuming they’re both good players, the hurler of the preceding paragraph, backed by his fielders, can be expected to “win” that battle about 70% of the time. We have no way of knowing exactly when one of the hitter’s intermittent (but inevitable) successes will occur. Or precisely why, though theories will abound in column and blog, especially if it happens in the postseason.

Obviously, I’m no mathematician. Many years of betting on horses did teach me a little about odds and probabilities, though. What we as fantasy owners are attempting to do, like real general managers, is assess the likelihood of given players either repeating their past performance, improving or regressing. There are many different tools available to remove some, but not all, of the guesswork. It doesn’t matter whether we rely on ZiPS, PECOTA, proprietary stats, scouts, touts or a consensus of the above, we all come up with evaluations and rankings before our auctions, drafts or winter meetings. If you excel at the game, those ratings are probably applied to 1,000 players or more, including minor-leaguers, and adjusted throughout the season.

Your “system” may be vastly superior to mine. If so, all other things being equal, you’ll probably finish ahead of me in our league. However, in any given season, my team might avoid injuries while yours doesn’t. I might get unexpected career years from a few players. Champions aren’t always the best-run team. So much is beyond our control, all we can really do is prepare diligently, make consistently sound decisions and hope for the best.

This is also the case on the diamond. Not to diminish what the White Sox accomplished in 2005, but had Jon Garland pitched like he did in most previous seasons—a level to which he seems to have returned this year—they would have been hard-pressed to make the playoffs. That’s deliberately oversimplified; the point is, some combination of avoiding disasters and taking advantage of pleasant surprises is common to winning teams.

Attributing someone else’s success to “good luck” and blaming your own failures on “bad luck” can be a convenient cop-out for the lazy and/or incompetent. Sure, there are people “born on third base who think they hit a triple” and others whose life burdens seem unfair. But in our context—attempting to make sense of a sport—don’t dismiss random chance as a plausible explanation for certain team or individual performances. Let's not get into fate.

Baseball remains an eternal mystery, even to those who devote a lifetime to studying it. Over the years, I’ve enjoyed picking the brains of many big league managers, coaches, players, scouts, general managers and a controversial Yankees owner. My baseball library is extensive; I’ve been watching on TV since Pee Wee Reese and Dizzy Dean manned the broadcast booth. Attending thousands more games in person, as participant or spectator, at every level of organized and amateur ball, has further expanded my internal database. Still, like most astute observers, I “see something new every day.”

The statistical revolution of recent years has helped a growing segment of fans become more aware of the game’s nuances. Open-minded career baseball men—they aren’t all Luddites—have also adopted sabermetric principles. Collectively, we’re better informed (about sports and everything else) than at any previous time in human history. Nevertheless, all that knowledge hasn't made the answers to many pertinent questions any less elusive. True wisdom, it’s been said, begins with knowing what you don’t know.

Hindsight:

Since we’re speaking of unpredictability, remember April, when Chris Shelton was on pace for over 100 homers and 200 RBIs? Meanwhile, Dan Johnson was hitting under .200 all season—with an OPS under .600—until very recently. Over the last month, Shelton has been killing his owners at a .194/.272/.323 clip, while Johnson, at .329/.398/.537, is finally rewarding those patient enough to wait for the law of averages to be invoked. Anyone out there who “sold high” on Shelton for something like a stud pitcher and Johnson is cackling all the way to a pennant despite being full of horseshoes, in a most uncomfortable place.

Apologies to anyone who picked up Casey Janssen on my enthusiastic recommendation a couple of weeks ago. While my scouting report still applies, his recent results have been extremely disappointing. The frame of a power pitcher and a Seaveresque leg drive notwithstanding, this righty relies on finesse and precision. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, the Jays and his confidence, his pinpoint control suddenly went missing June 12 against the Orioles. After setting down the first six batters—striking out two—Janssen gave up a pair of infield singles and a triple before fanning two more to limit the damage. The next inning was a waking nightmare: five singles, a hit batsman with the bases loaded (!) and a merciful hook.

Five days later in Florida against the resurgent Marlins, Janssen began by nibbling, tentatively, from the first pitch, and plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt wasn’t impressed. An uncharacteristic four walks and a barrage of 11 base hits resulted in an even shorter outing. There’s a simple explanation: when your fastball is 89-92, and you miss your spots early in the count, you get clobbered. How the young man responds to this first taste of big-league embarrassment will determine whether he sticks around all season (as seemed so likely a short time ago) or is returned to Syracuse for more seasoning.

Needless to say, it wasn’t the best week for my Toronto Walrus, which not only suffered through Janssen’s WHIP-destroying meltdown, but had some very sound managerial logic backfire. Gil Meche, scratched from a scheduled start with a sore back, took the hill the following afternoon. Less than 100% healthy, with the recently overpowering Jason Schmidt as his mound opponent and Barry Bonds in the Giants lineup, he seemed like an automatic candidate for a benching. The win, the 9 innings, the lone earned run and 7/1 ratio of strikeouts to walks would all have been helpful in a week where I took a 10-2 pounding. Brain cramp, or bad luck?

Blind Squirrel Award

Owners who picked up Jamie Shields after his inauspicious big-league debut—or even after his second start—are at risk of rotator cuff damage from patting themselves on the back after the D-Rays rookie out duelled Brandon Webb for his fourth straight win. It was a tough call this week over Henry Blanco, who became a 10-day regular because of Michael Barrett’s suspension and proceeded to nearly double his OPS in six remarkable days. Honorable mention if you added So Taguchi just before his 2 stolen bases and rare home run this week. White Sox hitters, especially Joe Crede, have been racking up crazy stats while averaging more than 11 runs per game during six straight victories. Sadly, their owners are ineligible for the BSA because Pale Hose bats were smart investments, not lucky shots in the dark.

Hunches:

The only “reason” to keep Janssen in my lineup vs. the Mets tonight is a remarkable streak of success for the Blue Jays on my birthday. One man's coincidence is another's karma; for one day, the baseball gods have been very kind since the last millenium. In both 2000 and 2001, a Toronto team I didn’t particularly like (except for Carlos Delgado) defeated the Red Sox. During the first half of 2002, I ripped J.P. Ricciardi in multiple ESPN.com fantasy columns every week for sticking with the overmatched “lame duck Buck” Martinez as skipper and “Buck Eighty”—my scornful, AVG-based nickname for Joey Lawrence—at second base. On June 23, the team won anyway.

As I celebrated the Big 5-0 with family and friends, the 2003 Jays thumped the Orioles. That was a pretty good season: getting to know John Gibbons and the other coaches, cheering (only once in the press box) for three superstars and the Rookie of the Year.

Roy Halladay pitches very well on any date. For my “present” in 2004, he allowed just one run in seven innings, and the Jays beat the Rays on a Reed Johnson RBI single in the tenth. Last year, Doc fanned eight Orioles, improving to 11-4 in what looked like another Cy Young campaign, until that fateful Kevin Mench line drive broke his leg.

I’ll be at the Rogers Centre this evening, to hoist a few celebratory brews and welcome the great Delgado back to T.O., though I hope Janssen sits him down four times. Many reasonable people would have cut Casey by now, even in a 20-team league like BBFL. Anyone with half a brain would at least keep him benched until he turns it around. I’m almost embarrassed to admit that considering the “birthday mojo” (in addition to where my opponent and I stand in the six pitching categories) will make his fantasy start a last-minute decision.

On to a couple of more realistic possible additions. Depending on the depth of your league, Zach Miner may be available. The unheralded Tigers righty tossed a complete game against the Brewers that lowered his ERA to 2.08 and improved his record to 3-1. Facing the Astros and possibly the Pirates next week (depending on how Jim Leyland deals with an off day), he might continue to surprise for a while longer. He’s not recommended long-term, because sooner or later, opponents will figure out they should sit on the rookie’s bread-and-butter changeup.

It’s too soon to declare this a complete turnaround, but Erik Bedard, after winning just once in 10 wildly inconsistent starts, has now collected a win in his last two. The Canadian lefty has never looked better than Wednesday night, when he absolutely baffled the Marlins. Thanks primarily to a dazzling curveball, he struck out 12 in eight shutout innings, allowing just two hits and no walks. In shallow leagues he might be a free agent, making two starts against NL clubs next week.

Stay tuned, fantasy fans. We’re about to review the first half, saluting the 20-20 All-Stars, then will be looking ahead to the second half for potential breakout candidates. Until then, the very best of luck.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Kent Williams 2006-06-23T04:01:15+00:00 Fantasy: Half Mental http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fantasy-half-mental/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fantasy-half-mental/#When:04:03:15 Rick Ankiel’s unfortunate meltdown have occurred in Triple-A? Would anyone have noticed?

The polarized debate between scouts and statheads neglects mental illness on both sides. Baseball men fear it, analysts can’t measure it. Consider the national statistics for depression and bipolar disorder, anxiety, etc.—why would athletes (and coaches) be immune? Alcoholism, drug abuse, compulsive gambling and other addictions are also prevalent in society, but our culture encourages secrecy. Especially in baseball, it’s shameful to admit that a problem is “all in your head.”

Lou Gehrig’s legacy reminds us how a tragic, visible disease inspires compassion. We fondly remember what might have been for talented players felled by injury. Yet empathy for players whose performances suffer due to brain chemistry is practically non-existent. Jocks are supposed to "cowboy up" if whatever bothers them can’t be numbed with pain-killers, treated by antibiotics, or surgically repaired.

These hidden medical conditions can be more serious health threats than the use of performance-enhancing drugs. Moral indignation about steroids and HGH abounds in many quarters, while problems that deserve at least as much attention are taboo: swept under the rug by the industry, overlooked by the media and ignored by fans.

One perfectly valid reason there’s so little information about mental disorders is a player’s right to privacy. When Dewon Brazelton goes AWOL after being demoted, pundits can easily dismiss it as selfish or immature behavior. More likely is that he was in emotional agony. Few reporters are insensitive enough to pry into personal lives, and nobody involved wants to volunteer details.

If you’re still reading, you may be asking, “How does this mumbo-jumbo apply to fantasy baseball?”

There’s no diagnostic formula; it requires observation and interpretation, which I believe you Internet-savvy youngsters call a WAG. Keep in mind, although I’m not a certified psychotherapist, it’s common knowledge that I’m certifiable.

Don’t Think, Meat

Sudden, dramatic improvement or a mysterious, gradual decline can be explained in different ways. Speculation about being on (or going off) the juice is quite popular lately. Often, you can “toss out” slumps for reasons of injury; every year a few misguided heroes neglect to tell anyone about nagging pain. Their stats may suffer for a month or more before they admit the deception and finally go on the DL. It’s quite similar for “personal” problems.

Zack Greinke had a horrible year in 2005. There’s no way to calculate exactly how much his performance on the mound was compromised by mental and emotional factors. At 21, experiencing failure for the first time with everybody watching, it’s a quick leap from believing you’re invincible to wondering if you’re over-hyped. We can assume there were times Zack felt like Steve Blass, who recalled, “I was out on the mound in a major league game, knowing that I shouldn't be there. That was, to me, embarrassing and humiliating.”

I always hope, for any such player’s sake, that he returns to previously-established form, or becomes better than ever. But fantasy baseball has no room for sentiment. Deciding to use a precious roster spot should always be based on positional need and a risk/reward estimate. If Greinke’s a free agent, why not take the chance that he’s about to write a new chapter in a KC success story?

It’s been done before. Roy Halladay threw a near-perfect game as a 21-year-old September callup in 1998. Plummeting from “sky’s the limit” phenom to complete disaster (10.64 ERA, 2.20 WHIP) in less than two years was part mechanical, part mental. Pitching coach Mel Queen deserves much credit for getting “Doc” to fulfill his Cy Young potential. Sent all the way back to Single-A, he incorporated several major technical adjustments before slowly working his way back to the Show, one level at a time.

Sports psychologist Harvey Dorfman, author of several books on the mental aspects of baseball, played a simultaneous, equally crucial role in the pitcher’s renaissance. When he returned to Toronto, Halladay's fastball had noticeably more movement, and his curveball spun tighter. Those of us paying close attention to his body language and facial expressions became even more optimistic about the rebuilding job’s success. Keeper-league owners who ignored Halladay’s “inexplicable” 2000 season and picked him up cheap for the second half of 2001 did extremely well for the next couple of years.

Unfortunately, not every psychological saga has a happy ending. Take Oliver Perez. Please.

When I watched him on TV in March during the World Baseball Classic, the lefty’s mind seemed as messed up as his mechanics. A recently-published fantasy tip sheet had Perez rated about 100 positions higher than Chris Young, my #1 breakout pick. Fuelled by a few pints at a Toronto “Beer Club” meeting, I ridiculed the notion that Perez had even the slightest chance to duplicate his promising 2004 and “guaranteed” that he wouldn’t come close to Young’s fantasy value in 2006. One of those friendly wagers ensued. While perhaps not statistically sound, my instincts were correct.

During 2005, while trying to explain his decline, I developed a plausible scenario. Imagine you’re 23 years old with an incredible arm: 239 strikeouts, a 2.98 ERA. But your team finishes more than 30 games off the pace, so nobody notices. A Mexican who pitched like this in San Diego would be treated like royalty. With you, the Padres would be a contending team and you'd be the most popular guy in Tijuana year-round. Instead, you’re stuck indefinitely in Pittsburgh, not exactly a border town, playing in obscurity for a league laughingstock. At 24, after a winter of celebrating your success, you could lose some motivation and begin a downward spiral.

For whatever reason, Perez unravelled last season, and still looks lost. Inspired a few weeks ago to pitch better for three start after being skipped in the rotation, he has since relapsed into bad habits again. I’m not sure how to explain his latest solid outing against the Cardinals. Maybe, with Kip Wells expected to return from the DL soon, the kid realized how close he is getting to a change of scenery, namely Indianapolis.

If Perez is traded, and has been dropped in your league, be ready to pounce. That might be all it takes to relocate his missing fastball and consistency. Until then, my sympathies to his fantasy owners, the Pirates coaching staff, and general manager Dave Littlefield. Hard to say who’s more frustrated.

Hindsight

Corey Patterson, center fielder on the 20-20 All-Stars, has been running wild, dropping down gorgeous bunt singles, robbing people of homers and best of all, inciting Larry Bowa. Nobody watching him closely in 2005, least of all the Cubs front office, saw this coming. The Orioles, and Corey’s fantasy owners, hit the lottery.

While it could turn out to be nothing more than two flukey months before he soon regresses, fellow armchair shrinks have noticed how Patterson’s demeanor has changed. Alternately tentative and tense last year, he's grown increasingly confident this year since those horrible first two weeks. Dusty Baker’s legion of critics will enjoy assigning him 100% of the blame for a “tough love” approach that had Patterson looking over his shoulder trying too hard. Sam Perlozzo and his staff deserve kudos for recognizing Patterson’s sensitivity and providing a more nurturing environment. The lion’s share of the credit, as always, goes to the player.

Blind Squirrel Award: One of numerous middle infielders I’ve employed and released, Alex Cintron exploded with two homers, four steals and a .474 average over six starts. Owners who picked him up at the right time could get even luckier, if Jose Uribe’s season-long flirtation with the Mendoza Line continues much longer.

Russ Adams

Sent down to Syracuse to forget his fielding problems at shortstop and get some innings at second base, Russ Adams hit .338/.400/.500 in 68 at-bats, including a 4-for-4 game with four RBIs. It was expected that he’d be gone for at least a month, but backup infielder John McDonald got hurt and the emergency replacements were woefully inadequate. The former #1 pick, back to stay, is worth picking up if he was dropped in your league.

Adams isn't completely out of the psychological woods. Every throwing error at his new position will remind some observer —especially the poison pen of the Toronto Star, Geoff Baker—of Steve Sax and Chuck Knoblauch. As long as Adams stays confident and relaxed in the field, expect his hitting to improve. Manager John Gibbons showed his faith by inserting Adams into the leadoff spot on Thursday. (Vernon Wells got the day off; he’ll usually bat ninth.)

Chris Burke

Opportunity is more significant than state of mind. Willy Taveras was supposed to be the icing on the stolen base cake for me in BBFL; now he appears to have lost his job. When Phil Garner decided that Chris Burke was fine in center field and then plugged him into the 3-hole, his already rising fantasy value soared. Yesterday, when the skipper used Burke at second to give Craig Biggio a day off, Taveras got his first start in a week. Dealing with rust and Carlos Zambrano, his 0-4 was no surprise.

Nick Punto

Now that the Twins have given up on Tony Batista, at-bats are up for grabs. Manager Ron Gardenhire is pumping sunshine in the direction of Terry Tiffee, but had Nick Punto at third, batting second, on Wednesday. If Gardy shows the same impatience with shortstop Jason Bartlett that he has in the past, Little Nicky could have some value for a while in deep leagues.

Character Doesn’t Count

Esteban Loaiza has never been forgiven by Blue Jays fans for costing millions of dollars and Michael Young, then pitching poorly and indifferently. Driving 120 MPH, drunk, at 3:30 a.m. is an unusual way to prepare for a start 36 hours later, even for an enigma.

Some will connect a drinking problem with his abysmal performance in April. My theory is that his tremendous effort in the WBC was too much, too soon for a 35-year-old, and he couldn’t pitch through the subsequent “dead arm” or pain. His June 8 return was promising, then yesterday, under the media microscope after his arrest, he settled down after a shaky beginning and kept his team in the game.

This incident could turn out to be a much-needed wakeup call for Loaiza, whose talent has always tantalized. Perhaps he’ll even get some help. Though hard to like, he’s a potential bargain pickup in many leagues.

That’s one of the biggest differences between building a fantasy team and a real ballclub. Chemistry isn’t a category.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Kent Williams 2006-06-16T04:03:15+00:00 Fantasy: On The Move http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fantasy-on-the-move/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fantasy-on-the-move/#When:04:02:15 The Hardball Times, a daily must-read since its inception. Each week, my short attention span will wander to aspects of baseball that you may find interesting. This isn’t intended to be a tip sheet, but I’m usually willing to answer e-mail ; comments and suggestions are also welcome. Just let me know if it’s OK to quote you in upcoming Mailbag columns.

There won’t be much number-crunching here. I’m a Yogi Berra disciple who observes a lot by watching. Old enough to have seen Bill Mazeroski’s incredible homer live on TV, my heroes include Casey Stengel, Willie Mays, Pete Rose (on the field) and Bill James. Gurus are everywhere, if you seek them out. Joaquin Andujar is no philosopher, but his one-word summary of baseball — “youneverknow” — reflects everything I’ve learned in five decades as a player, coach and fan.

Mentioning that Dave Bush of my Toronto Walrus in the Batter’s Box Fantasy League defeated Jake Peavy this week — on the same night that my Eric Milton outpitched Chris Carpenter — isn’t intended to make me look smart. (Admitting they own Milton does little to enhance anyone’s credibility as a so-called expert.) It’s merely to illustrate another long-held personal belief: I’d rather be lucky than good.

Transactional Analysis

In the real world, TA is the “I’m OK, you’re OK” branch of psychotherapy. Nothing to do with baseball, unless it’s useful to fantasy owners trying to cope with an addiction to Moves. That is, until we start our own 12-step group.

As you have probably surmised, my style is to tweak. Constantly. If transactions were a counting stat, my teams, usually contenders, would be awesome.

Standing pat with your Opening Day roster is admirable, and can turn out fine. In some extremely deep leagues, it’s almost necessary — nothing slips through the waiver wire. However, in many others, it makes perfect sense to shuffle anyone with a possible upside through the last couple of roster spots.

Fantasy tactics vary depending on each set of rules. Roto or points pools tend to demand more patience; Head-to-Head can actually reward speculation. If transactions are limited, pick your spots. If there’s a ceiling on innings pitched, manage accordingly. If not, there are ways to use an “unlimited bench” and “infinite rotation” to your advantage.

You’re Fired!

Personality traits may turn some of us into waiver-wire junkies. If you’re forgiving, patient and confident, presumably you’ll stay with an underperforming player much longer than someone as vindictive, impulsive and self-critical as me.

My worst gaffe this season — so far — was giving up on Johnny Estrada. Prior to the draft, I had pegged him as a late-round value pick. That nasty 2005 collision with Darin Erstad caused lasting injuries that had insufficient time to heal until the offseason. The chances that Estrada would return to 2004 form, healthy and playing in a hitter’s park, seemed reasonable enough.

After 33 AB, Johnny was “hitting” .182 with a .432 OPS, making his abysmal .540 OPS from the second half last year that much harder to forget or rationalize away. Many of my cockamamie theories don’t pan out; was the anticipated bounceback a pipe dream? Was his back still sore? Second-guessing myself, I cut him — on April 15! — and have since employed Gregg Zaun, Miguel Olivo and Ronny Paulino. That’s hardly a season-ending catastrophe, just an example of twitchy micromanaging.

However, moves not made can be just as costly. You miss out on potential upgrades, and hanging on too long to someone like Oliver Perez v. 2006 can ruin a team's final standing. I’ve often wondered how patient owners finally decide when to admit mistakes and cut their losses.

Position Scarcity

In the 20-team BBFL, with up to 540 players owned, middle infielders are always at a premium. This year, so are corner bats. Catching, as usual, is ridiculously thin, no matter what the format.

My good friend, Robert Dudek, is cruising along in first place in QQRL, a 12-owner AL-only league that requires two catchers, so you can imagine how scarce they are. Ever analytical, Robert deduced that “overpaying” for Joe Mauer and Pudge Rodriguez would be a bargain. It appears that his foresight will be rewarded with a nice cash prize, and he has both backstops under contract for two more seasons.

Obviously, that kind of player rarely falls into your lap. If they’re unavailable, you might do better to load up at other positions. No matter how realistic your league strives to be, mediocrity up the middle simply isn’t as harmful to a fantasy team as an actual ballclub.

After the few truly valuable 2B, SS and C are gone, there isn’t a significant difference between the tenth-best and say, the twentieth best, who can be acquired for a minimal salary or in a very late round. If you’re strong enough in the OF and at the corners, you can afford to have a one-tool wonder at MI to provide a few steals and a backup C who pops the occasional homer without killing your rate stats. For those of us who play the game that way, a revolving-door policy naturally evolves.

Replacement Level

Replacement level, like your league's rules, is important to consider before any transaction. A 12-team mixed league where every roster is full of all-stars must be fun. Why not drop a regular for a hot hitter or a young flamethrower? If and when they stop producing, you can choose from several available options just as talented.

In deeper leagues, nearly every team is stuck with a borderline pitcher or two. Because IP is a category in BBFL, a mediocre starter can be worth more in a given week than a decent middle reliever. Rarely is your tenth arm, or even your ninth, considerably better than a speculative FA. If you’re not likely to win WHIP and ERA anyway, a different warm body can be plugged into the rotation each day. Sometimes, by turning pitchers over that way, you accidentally get one worth keeping for another start. Or two. Gil Meche, on the thinnest of ice for the last month, simply won’t let me cut him.

Hindsight

Let’s take a brief look back in the mirror before gazing ahead through the crystal ball.

In the realm of “minor, potentially good moves that paid off” we find Melky Cabrera, who has seized his unexpected opportunity. Hitting in the 2-hole and vastly improved in the outfield from his deer-in-the-headlights debut last season, he’s a genuine Yankee until both Sheffield and Matsui return. It will also be no surprise if his power numbers improve in the near future.

Fishing in the same Bronx pond, I added Andy Phillips, who had been swinging a hot bat for all of 72 hours, at 7:00 PM last Friday. The timing of the unpremeditated move was partly to find out if I could drop Jose Valentin after his game was postponed (still getting used to the new BBFL waiver deadline) and because I needed counting stats in a close match.

The fantasy baseball gods enjoy mocking me. Yahoo’s server decided it was seconds too late to switch him to an active position for a 7:05 start, so a HR and a SB languished on my bench. (Fortunately, I won those categories anyway.) At least until the Yankees trade for an outfielder and return Giambi to 1B, Phillips has been handed his best, if not his last, chance to be a productive semi-regular.

This week’s Blind Squirrel Award goes to Damion Easley owners. Congratulations on your good fortune (4 HR and 10 RBI in two games) but really, what were you thinking?

Hunches

If Jered Weaver is still available, your league is shallower than Paris Hilton, but grab him immediately. For the rest of us, looking for under-the-radar FA pitchers making two starts next week is the equivalent of panning for gold.

Casey Janssen was an emergency callup who stuck around in Toronto because Josh Towers imploded and A.J. Burnett was hurt. That kind of pedigree and a modest heater would make me leery of most rookies, especially in their second consecutive start against a good hitting team like the Orioles. (In fact, on Monday he’ll be facing Kris Benson & Co. for the fourth time in just 10 career appearances!) But the former UCLA stalwart commands six pitches in all four corners of the zone and is adept at adding or subtracting a few MPH, so he keeps hitters off balance even if they’re familiar with his repertoire. His second outing next week will be in Florida, where another gem, like the one he tossed against the Angels on May 17, is entirely possible.

In his last five starts, by taking a couple of feet off a previously erratic fastball, Ramon Ortiz has quietly turned around what began as a horrible season. Slated to pitch twice at home next week, he’s become a worthwhile addition in most NL pools or deep mixed leagues.

Lastings Milledge, the cream of the hitting crop, should already have been scooped up in keeper leagues. Even if he returns to the minors in a few weeks, he'll soon be back, and he’s a speed-power guy who will help the Mets (and his fantasy owners) while he’s in the Show. As Cliff Floyd limped off the field Tuesday night, Milledge’s window of opportunity opened a little bit wider.

His teammate Jose Valentin could continue all season as the larger half of a 2B platoon, despite assurances to the contrary from Willie Randolph, and still has enough power to provide value, especially in deep, daily-changes leagues where you can bench him vs. southpaws.

Job changes among position players are always difficult to predict, because there's little rhyme or reason to some managerial decisions. Keep an eye on Ryan Spilborghs, who might soon replace the slumping Cory Sullivan in CF for Colorado, no matter what Clint Hurdle is saying today. Eric Bruntlett may be on the verge of taking over for Adam Everett as the SS in Houston. Both are currently auditioning with the Walrus; I’m willing to be short one pitcher until we see how these situations develop.

Very deep (comatose?) sleeper Mike Morse is getting spot starts of late in Seattle as a LF-1B-DH, but retains SS eligibility in most leagues and could keep hitting at a reasonable clip if he gets additional AB. A double, a walk and a steal off the very tough Francisco Liriano might help change mind, but Grover’s man-crush on Willie Bloomquist prevents even me from reaching for Morse. Yet.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Kent Williams 2006-06-09T04:02:15+00:00