As a talent, Hoffman will long be remembered for his remarkable change-up. In an era when it was the fireballer who symbolized a team’s bullpen strength, Hoffman succeeded by throwing an almost unhittable change-up that was once described as "like it has a parachute on it." His change-up was so good, in fact, that often he could achieve success with merely the threat of a change-up.

From a 2002 Tom Verducci article in Sports Illustrated:

The night after he fanned [Paul] Lo Duca, Hoffman earned another save against the Dodgers, one in which he threw 13 pitches—the first 12 of which were fastballs or cut fastballs—before he finally slipped in a changeup.

For fans of Hoffman, however, what will stick out more than anything else about the closer is his entrance to the tolling of AC/DC’s “Hells Bells”. Fans in San Diego and Milwaukee were treated to one of the best moments in sports on a regular basis when Hoffman was in the ‘pen. The pitching wasn't bad, either.

The tradition was started in July 1998, on the night Hoffman tied Rod Beck’s then-record of 41-consecutive saves. Hoffman’s streak would end the next night, but the “Hells Bells” tradition remained.

From April 29, 1993, when he recorded his first career save against Braves (as a Marlin), to July 23, 1998, the last save before the “Hells Bells” tradition began, Hoffman earned 167 saves in 194 opportunities, for an 86% save rate. From that first night of “Hells Bells” until the end of his career, he converted 434 of 483 save opportunities, a 90% success rate.

But “Hells Bells” is only a home field thing. Many of those 434 saves were made in the absence of the anthem. Looking only at home saves, we see that the pattern holds. In his pre-”Hells Bells” time, Hoffman converted 78 of 90 home saves for an 87% success rate. Once he made the switch, the conversion rate jumped to 91%, with 232 saves in 254 opportunities.

And even though the anthem would never follow him into opposing parks, the “Hells Bells” mojo certainly did. Before July 1998, Hoffman was converting 86% of his road saves (89 in 104). Once the Padres started blasting out the AC/DC in Qualcomm Stadium, the percentage increased to 88% (202 of 229 opportunities). The “Hells Bells” effect is real!

Well, maybe not. There is absolutely no reason to believe in anything like a “Hells Bells effect” There are many more logical explanations for the changes we see. Trevor Hoffman’s save stats only look better in “pre” and “post” terms because he struggled in the early part of his career before his performance began to notably improve, at which time “Hells Bells” was given to him. The anthem did not make Hoffman a better pitcher. The anthem, instead, is evidence that Hoffman was becoming a better pitcher.

Regardless, with the 43-year-old officially retiring today, baseball has lost not only one of the single greatest recurring moments in the game, but a terrific person and teammate. Anyone who had the privilege to root for Hoffman during his 18-year career will feel the same way.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Larry Granillo 2011-01-12T09:36:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/human-nature-and-the-hall-of-fame-vote/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/human-nature-and-the-hall-of-fame-vote/#When:13:30:15 Ed Price, a BBWAA member at AOL Fanhouse and Hall of Fame voter, recently wrote an article in which he declared he would no longer publicly announce the players for whom he was voting. He wrote:

“Unlike the annual BBWAA awards, Hall of Fame voting is by secret ballot. And while in the past I have published my vote, I no longer believe I should.

And that's because I don't believe it's fair to publicly accuse someone of using PEDs without some evidence. If I reveal my ballot, and it doesn't include an obvious choice, then I am, in effect, accusing that player because I have made it known I will not vote for a player if I believe there was a reasonable chance he used PEDs.”

The reaction to Price’s piece has been rather strong, with many, such as SI’s Joe Posnanski, taking offense to Price’s notion that “this isn't a court of law” and that “innocent until proven guilty does not apply.” The effective outcome of this policy—that Price can withhold a Hall of Fame vote to an otherwise worthy candidate on any PED speculation no matter how weak without having to justify it—has also stirred some outrage.

The sense seems to be that, by not voting for these worthy candidates, Price and voters like him are punishing the players. Price doesn’t believe so—“I believe getting in the Hall of Fame is a reward. But not getting in isn't punishment.”—but his detractors don’t see it that way. Hall of Fame ballots only allow for a “Yes” or “No” vote, after all. When the “Yes” vote isn’t cast on a deserving player, the voter is saying “No” instead. If that “No” vote comes out of merely suspicions, it can easily feel like a punishment.

The problem, as I see it, is that the Price detractors are missing something important about human nature here. It’s true that the Hall of Fame ballot is technically a boolean choice—either “yes” or “no”—but fans rarely, if ever, treat it as such. Distinctions are made all the time: first-ballot guys, second-ballot guys, guys who deserve to stay on for all fifteen years but who shouldn’t be elected, guys who you hope get a handful of votes even if they have no right to be elected, guys who shouldn’t be on the ballot at all...there are a lot of shades of gray that we fill in ourselves whenever we look at a player’s career in terms of the Hall of fame.

Single votes have a little gray to them as well. A writer may not feel a particular player is deserving enough of his vote that year, but might be deserving the next year. And while his lack of a “Yes” vote would effectively be “No,” he would actually be saying “Wait until next year.” The risk of dropping off the ballot would be there, of course, but that wouldn’t change his intention with the vote.

When I read what Price said, I get upset, too. It is not how I would vote, and I find it very hard to agree with his position. But if we allow for some shades of gray in his ballot, his position starts to make sense. He is now saying, “I have enough suspicions about this player that I don’t want to give him a ‘Yes’ just yet, but, until the suspicisons are proven or disproven, I can’t give him a ‘No’ either.” It may not be something that everyone can agree with, or that even makes sense logically, but it is certainly in line with human nature.

We’ll find out this afternoon at 2 p.m. just how widespread sentiments like these are, when the Hall of Fame results are announced. With Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven as the only expected inductees this year (as Chris Jaffe so wonderfully demonstrated), it doesn’t look good for Jeff Bagwell and other players suspected of PEDs, no matter how superficial the suspicion. We must hope, then, that the process works well enough to give all worthy candidates a fair shake throughout their time on the ballot.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Larry Granillo 2011-01-05T13:30:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-collusion-to-blame-for-jack-morris-hof-case/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-collusion-to-blame-for-jack-morris-hof-case/#When:08:26:15
If you’ve been following the Hall of Fame debate at all over the last few years, then you’ll recognize those stats as an important piece of the case for Jack Morris. There are, of course, other arguments that Morris supporters use, but Morris’ dominance over that 10-year stretch is always a key part. It may be couched in a phrase like “you had to be there,” but you can bet that Morris’ status as the “Pitcher of the ‘80s” will make it’s way into any “Morris for the Hall of Fame” piece.

But when did Morris get this distinction? His supporters like to appeal to the prevailing wisdom of the era in which he pitched, so one must wonder when exactly in his career he adopted that level of reverence. The safe bet would have Morris gaining the mantle of the “Pitcher of the ‘80s” after the 1989 season, once the competition was over and the title was securely his. Others more cynical might expect the “Pitcher of the ‘80s” talk to have begun after Morris completed his other big claim to fame, the 10-inning shutout of the Atlanta Braves in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. A more literal fan might think of the title having been granted to Morris following the 1985 season, when he took the “most wins of the 1980s” crown away from Steve Carlton.

And while each argument may have some merit, none are exactly true. Looking through newspaper reports from the late-1980s, the discussion of Morris as the “pitcher of the ‘80s” or “the decade’s best pitcher” seemed to begin in earnest in the winter following the 1986 season. Morris was a free-agent that year and, as of mid-December, had broken off the arbitration process with the Tigers in favor of four other clubs (the Angels, Yankees, Twins, and Phillies). The offers did not come in and, as the dreaded “c-word” came into play, writers were left trying to figure out what was happening. From the Boston Globe (Dec. 11, 1986):

“Moss reportedly wants a four-year contract for Morris that would at least place him in the salary neighborhood of Dwight Gooden ($1.4 million annually).

Morris' credentials seem to indicate he is worth it. In 1986, Morris went 21-8 with a 3.27 earned run average. His 10-year record is 144-94. He is the winningest pitcher of the '80s (123-81), and one of the most durable.
...
Morris is willing to be a test case. But there is no early indication that anyone but the Tigers is willing to come close to his salary demands, and some might consider this ploy a form of blackmail.“

“Was it just coincidence, the union asks, that no free agents received a contract offer of more than three years last winter, and no free agents, including Kirk Gibson and Donnie Moore, received offers from a club other than their own before the Jan. 8 deadline for re-signing with their own clubs?

Is it just coincidence, the union asks, that no free agents with offers on the table from their own clubs, including Tim Raines, Lance Parrish and Andre Dawson, had received even one offer from other clubs before Thursday's deadline, that a variety of contract proposals by Jack Morris, the winningest pitcher of the '80s, was rejected by four teams and that, again, no players have received more than three-year offers and no pitchers have received more than two-year offers?”

“Jack Morris has become a victim of his own success. He's so good and so consistent that he is often overlooked.

Morris is the only pitcher to have won at least 15 games in each of the last six years. He leads the majors with 141 victories and 270 starts in the '80s, and has pitched at least 240 innings in every year except the strike-shortened 1981. He is on his way to his sixth [sic] consecutive 200-strikeout season, has never in his career allowed more hits than innings pitched, and has a composite 3.39 ERA in this decade.

For all of this, Morris has received only two first-place votes in Cy Young balloting during his entire career.

Will it change this year?

Manager Sparky Anderson thinks it should.
...
“He is the horse of baseball,” Anderson said. “If he doesn't win the Cy Young this year there isn't the justice I thought there was in our game. These fly-by-night guys come along and disappear into the night. Someone hops on their bandwagon and they end up winning the Cy Young.””

The Yankees had offered a five-year, $34 million deal this week. After it was rejected, the Yankees asked Maddux to give them a number that, if offered, he would immediately accept.

Maddux told Boras at 9:30 a.m. Wednesday to counter with a $37 million proposal.

"Make the commitment. I'm going to be a New York Yankee," Boras quoted Maddux as saying.

At noon, Boras relayed the proposal to [Gene] Michael, who was going to check with the Yankees' partnership before making a formal offer. Boras told Michael that he expected approval.

Maddux, 26, will help form one of baseball's most formidable rotations in recent history. He will join Tom Glavine, a 20-game winner the last two years, Steve Avery and John Smoltz. Glavine won the 1991 Cy Young and finished second to Maddux this year.

The Braves also have Pete Smith, who went 7-0 after being promoted from the minors late in the year. Overall, Atlanta went 98-64.

Maddux is 95-75 lifetime with a 3.35 ERA. He is the NL's top winner in the last five years.

"Purists blush when Juan Samuel comes across second base like an NFL flanker making a post move and unfurls the double play pivot with a bolo flip. Then they gasp because Sammy has just whiskered swift Ken Landreaux at first to snuff a Dodgers' rally."

If Conlin's behind-the-scenes views revealed athletes as all too human, his descriptions of game action conveyed the magnitude of their talent and the demands of the sport itself, often capturing an intricate moment of baseball time through a series of sharp images and dynamic verbs.

A visitor from another planet, beamed into the giant saucer of Veterans Stadium for a Close Encounter of the Four Base Kind last night, may have returned to his civilization with a report that went something like this:

"Having stood - more out of habit, it seemed, than respect - for a discordant selection of music, the vast gathering of Earthlings participated in a complex religious ceremony.

It seems their god of night is Baze-Baal, a deity who could be connected to the Baal worshipped by some of the early Semitic tribes discovered during the Earth-probe in Epoch 12 of the 23rd Millennium.”

We have transcribed some of Schmidt's words as directed to a body of men called the negative bleepers. They appear to be recorders of the spoken and written word who gathered after the ritual to ask what Schmidt thought in his mind were 'more dumb questions.'

He said, 'You know that was one of the most thrilling home runs I've ever hit, to be honest with you. I've had a lot of thrilling home runs, but off of the guy I feel is the toughest pitcher against a righthanded hitter in that kind of pressure situation, with the electricity there was in the stadium. At a time when there were two men on base . . .
...
'To get to 493, which ties one of the all-time greats is quite thrilling.'

To better understand Schmidt's remarks, we placed a thought probe into the head of a negative bleeper called Khan-Lin. He said to a bleeper named Bus, 'He's gotta be MVP, look at the numbers - leads the majors with 35 homers and 109 RBI, hitting .293 and fielding his pits off. It's good they scored some runs for Bruce Ruffin. The kid was great, got 15 groundball outs the first six innings. He's just been exceptional - 8-3 with a 2.43 ERA, just amazing a kid with that kind of arm and poise could start the season in Reading.'