The Hardball Times -- Lisa Gray http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-06-19T08:32:15+00:00 Five questions: Houston Astros http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-houston-astros6/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-houston-astros6/#When:09:06:15
The Astros traditionally have been loath to start young players (unless they have been heavily touted by the Astros), preferring to acquire veterans, invariably on the downslide of their careers. The one young player given a chance last season was Tommy Manzella, a light-hitting, good-glove shortstop. Chris Johnson, who hit very well in spring training, had been thought by the Astros as merely minor league filler, so the remnants of Pedro Feliz was signed at the ludicrous price of $4.5 million to manufacture outs—er, RBIs.

At the beginning of the year, everything that could go wrong did go wrong: Lance Berkman began the season on the DL, Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence and Feliz didn't hit, Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris couldn't find the strike zone, Felipe Paulino DID throw strikes, but unfortunately down the middle and Roy Oswalt couldn't "pitch well enough to win." By the end of April, Michael Bourn was the only Astro with a positive Runs Created Above Average (RCAA).

The poisonous atmosphere created by the previous manager and pitching coach had dissipated, thanks to Brad Mills and Brad Arnsberg, but nothing they could do improved the hitting. Oswalt, the ace of the Astros for a decade, had had enough and allowed trade demands—previously hinted at because of his distaste for the previous manager and pitching coach—to be made public.

Owner Drayton McLane, who had been trying to sell the team since the disaster created by Hurricane Ike in 2008, first quietly, then openly, saw an opportunity to rid the team of two of its three onerous contracts (Carlos Lee has always refused every trade presented to him). He traded Oswalt at the end of July to the Phillies for young, cheap pitcher J.A. Happ and another minor leaguer, whom he traded to Toronto to obtain the much-traded, formerly highly touted first baseman Brett Wallace. He then traded Berkman, who still wasn't hitting very well, who had volunteered to be traded for the good of the team, to the Yankees for reliever Mark Melancon and a minor leaguer.

The Astros had already made positive changes by releasing Kaz Matsui and his negative OPS+ and replacing him with Jeff Keppinger's solid bat. They finally released Feliz at the end of June, promoting Johnson and "catcher of the future" Jason Castro, then trading inept catcher Kevin Cash for shortstop Angel Sanchez, who was needed as a fill-in when Manzella went on the DL.

By the beginning of July, the Astros began to win more, buoyed by increased production from Pence, league average production from Lee, and the presence of Johnson and Sanchez after Feliz and Manzella were not on the field. The improvement was NOT because franchise icon Jeff Bagwell, who replaced Sean Berry midseason, caused everyone to hit better. Fans, who had not come to see the lackluster, losing team at the beginning of the year, began to filter back to watch the young players Johnson, Wallace, Castro, Happ and Sanchez and talk of "The Young Team" began to circulate.

The 2011 team is not much younger. Second baseman Keppinger has been replaced by Bill Hall, who is expected to provide Jeff Kent-level slugging, and Clint Barmes has replaced Sanchez; as for some reason, the Astros expect him to provide run production, if he can reproduce his superlative 82 OPS+ from his 2009 season. It is possible that several rookies will make the bullpen, but this is no 1991 Astros team, which was, in fact, loaded with good young talent, albeit inexperienced.

Who will replace Jason Castro as catcher?


Castro was heavily touted from the minute he was chosen as the Astros' first-round draft pick in 2008. He was hyped for his makeup, for his defense, for his bat. By the time he was drafted in June, the organization had already soured on J.R. Towles, the young catcher who had shown such promise the previous September and was given the starting job that spring.

Castro was uncharacteristically (for the Astros) rushed through the minors in less than two years, and practically as soon as he raised his Triple-A batting average above his weight, he was promoted. Unsurprisingly (his OPS at Double-A was .747 and at Triple-A .720) he didn't hit, posting a 59 OPS+ over 195 at-bats. Surprisingly, he also did poorly at defense, allowing an astonishing seven passed balls and 40 wild pitches over only 68 games. (He did display a strong and accurate arm.)

In spite of the fact that he didn't outhit Towles, who has the same career 59 OPS+, the Astros planned to use him as the starting catcher. However, he tore his knee in spring training and is likely out for the year. Humberto Quintero, Brett Myers' personal catcher, has secured at least one catching spot. The Astros will have to either give Towles, who has at least proven that he can hit Triple-A pitching (OPS of .830 over 420 plate appearances), another chance, or pick from veterans Brian Esposito or Carlos Corporan, neither of whom can even hit Triple-A pitching, or from minor leaguers Jon Fixler, Rene Garcia and Federico Hernandez, none of whom has hit a lick over Double-A ball.

The Astros don't appear eager to give Towles, who spent most of the 2010 season on the DL, another chance. If they can find some cheap Proven Veteran to sign to a one-year contract, he will most likely be handed the job. On the other hand, the Astros may just promote Esposito or Corporan: they had no hesitation using Kevin Cash, yet another dreadful hitter, as a backup catcher and he was traded only because the Astros needed a shortstop immediately when Manzella went on the DL.


Will Jordan Lyles make the Opening Day starting rotation?


Jordan Lyles, age 20, is the Astros' other 2008 first-round pick who has been pushed rapidly through the team's minor league system, skipping hitter's heaven, high-A Lancaster. He pitched well at all levels, but appeared to hit a wall after being promoted to Triple-A, where he started six games and pitched poorly in the last four.

Ordinarily, I would be positive that the Astros would not call him up before the Super 2 deadline had passed, but as McLane is selling the team, and will surely find a buyer before Lyles' third year, he has no reason to care that Lyles' salary would be someone else's problem. Still, I would guess that he would start the year at Triple-A, since the Astros have plenty of filler for the fourth and fifth starter positions, and Lyles most likely needs more experience. I wouldn't be surprised if he was called up anytime later in the season, especially if he pitched at Triple-A and the Astros need to stir fan excitement, as did the promotion of Hunter Pence in 2007.

What will happen with Carlos Lee?


Currently, Lee is being paid $19 million a year to play left field and to produce runs; he greatly underperformed at both tasks last season. His poor fielding had been ignored for years because of his high batting average and RBI, but his slugging dropped precipitously along with his average in 2010, and fans, for the first time, became aware of his significant deficiencies in the field.

Brett Wallace was installed as the starting first baseman immediately after the Berkman trade. He had hit for power and average at all levels of the minors, and was expected to repeat those numbers in the majors. However, major league pitchers quickly noted that Wallace apparently could hit only pitches up and in, and consequently seldom threw them there. Wallace's batting average quickly plummeted and the Astros, instead of allowing him an adjustment period, moved Lee to first, with the excuse that Wallace wouldn't have to face lefties.

They also hoped that Lee would hit better, increasing his trade value for 2011, as his contract allows him to be traded to 10 teams of his choosing. (He becomes a five-and-10 man at the end of the year.) His OPS increased from .751 all the way to .762, and he proved to be a defensive liability, unsurprisingly: Wallace, by the way, was quite agile for a man of his bulk and he has very soft hands and an accurate arm.

Wallace will most likely be kept on a very short leash again. He, barring unforseen complications, will be the starting first baseman on Opening Day. If he doesn't hit well from the beginning, he will be sent back down, Lee will replace him at first and most likely Brian Bogusevic will become the regular left fielder. At least Bogusevic can field well, run well, steal bases AND hit.

Will Lee manage to increase his OPS+ to at least league average? After all, until last year he had kept it over .800. Well, he's older (35 in June), fatter and slower, and he wasn't injured last year, so it is doubtful.

Who will win the utility infield and fifth outfield positions?


On Opening Day, the starting position players will be Humberto Quintero, catcher; Brett Wallace, first base; Bill Hall, second base; Clint Barmes, shortstop; Chris Johnson, third base; Hunter Pence, right field; Michael Bourn, center field; Carlos Lee, left field.

Jason Michaels has already secured the fourth outfield spot; Brian Bogusevic, Drew Locke and Jason Bourgeois are the serious competitors for the fifth one, as J.D. Martinez, T.J. Steele and Jon Gaston haven't faced Triple-A pitching yet, or, in the case of Steele and Gaston, Double-A. Bogusevic, Locke and Bourgeois have all hit Triple-A pitching well. Both Bogusevic and Bourgeois run and steal bases; both hit for average, not for power, but Bogusevic has a decent walk rate. Locke is the only one who has hit for power at both Double-A and Triple-A. Bourgeois can also play infield; if none of the prospective backup infielders hit in spring training, this may give him an edge. This one will most likely go to the guy with the hottest bat.

Keppinger is currently the main backup infielder, but unfortunately for McLane, who wanted him and his salary traded before spring training, Keppinger required foot surgery and will be on the disabled list for a few more months. Therefore, McLane is out $3 million and some lucky guy will have a few months to seriously impress the organization before Keppinger comes off the DL, and plays a few games and McLane manages to dump him and the remainder of his salary.

The current candidates for backup infielder are Sanchez, a passable shortstop and good second baseman who hit (singles) decently after being obtained from the Red Sox midseason; Oswaldo Navarro, who can play second, short and third, who was given almost no playing time in several weeks on the major league roster last year; Matt Downs, who can play second, short and third and has posted a .452 SLG/.787 OPS over 810 plate appearances at Triple-A and is being touted as a "power hitter" in spite of his career .300 SLG in the majors; Anderson Hernandez, a carer bench warmer who has a 65 OPS+ over six years and 648 plate appearances and can play second and short and who, for some reason, is admired by general manager Ed Wade; and Manzella, the starting shortstop in 2010 who went on the DL with a broken bone in June and essentially lost his job to Sanchez when he returned.

Manzella has, by far, the best glove of the group, but has not played any position except for shortstop. Wade has already named Barmes as this year's starting shortstop, so unless Barmes "hits" like Kaz Matsui 2010 and Manzella tears the cover off the ball, he'll either repeat Triple-A or be traded. The most likely candidates are Downs and Sanchez, unless Wade's inexplicable love for Anderson Hernandez wins out.

Will McLane be able to sell the team in 2011?


McLane has slashed payroll, would prefer to slash it further, and has apparently informed Wade that he doesn't want to spend any more money. He apparently has no shortage of suitors, but none of them will meet his price and it is possible that none of them will receive Bud Selig's stamp of approval to join the cabal. At this time, it appears that two glamor franchises, the Dodgers and Mets, are in serious financial difficulty and may have to be sold. It is certainly possible that groups looking to purchase a franchise would prefer one that would generate more income and confer more celebrity than Houston.

It is, however, important that McLane attempt to complete his sale before it appears to prospective buyers that the Astros are headed for a Pirates-like losing-season streak. Then again, with modern revenue sharing, teams with low payrolls, low attendance and minimal winning earn their owners profit each year, so even owning a Washington Generals-type franchise would be a fine investment.

McLane will most likely find a buyer and complete the sale of the team before the end of 2011. Bud Selig may be able to persuade him that selling the team is like paying prospects slot rates; he'd be doing it for the Good of The Game and at Bud's Suggested Retail Price. McLane has been Selig's faithful soldier from the beginning.

Bonus question: Is 2011 the year the Astros will wrest last place in the NL Central from the Pirates' death grip?


It's going to be a close call, but the Astros' pitching staff, though hardly Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens quality, is still better than the Pirates. So the Astros will have to settle for fifth place.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Lisa Gray 2011-03-23T09:06:15+00:00 Five questions: Houston Astros http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-houston-astros5/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-houston-astros5/#When:10:40:15 Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Hampton, Russ Ortiz and Jason Michaels— didn't help the team win. Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman both suffered from injuries and decreased effectiveness. Carlos Lee posted a 118 OPS+, which was his lowest since 2003. Miguel Tejada's 109 OPS+ was negatively balanced by his poor defensive play.

On the bright side, Michael Bourn improved greatly, playing a dazzling center field, stealing an NL-high 61 bases and improving his OPS+ to 96 from 54; Wandy Rodriguez continued his excellent pitching, posting a 139 ERA+ over a career-high 205 innings; Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins were solid as closer and setup man; Ed Wade's proclivity for picking very good relievers off waiver wires and team discards proved itself with the emergence of Jeff Fulchino, Alberto Arias and Tim Byrdak.

The manager and pitching coach were heartily disliked by the players and the team had all the cohesion of particles in Brownian motion by the end of the year. The lackadaisical play had them losing 20 out of their last 26 games; the owner specifically instructed the manager to not play any of the young players who had been called up; the fans were bored and disappointed.

The owner did what he did two years ago when the team had a similar losing record—fired the incompetent manager. This time, he hired a man to manage who had been associated with the Red Sox instead of merely obeying Bud Selig's "suggestion" for manager. He also hired Brad Arnsberg, an experienced pitching coach with a stellar reputation, and fired every other coach with the exception of the hitting coach and replaced them with men from outside the rganization (except for third base coach Dave Clark, also very well liked by the players) instead of merely promoting from within, as usual. So far this spring, the players appear to have very positively responded to both the new manager and pitching coach. While it is quite true that one can't make chicken soup out of chicken, uh, excrement, a positive attitude, enthusiasm and confidence from the players is a change for the better.

So, what is in store for the 2010 Astros, given that few people outside of hopeful Astros fans expect to team to improve on last year's record?


Will the Astros again insist on using, um, recycled Veteran Presences or give young players a chance?


New manager Brad Mills, unlike his predecessor, is actually willing and eager to try young players, but unfortunately for him, Ed Wade is not. Although there is ostensibly a tryout for outfielders Yordany Ramirez, Alex Romero and Brian Bogusevic, Wade has already told reporters and prediction services that 30-year-old lefty Cory Sullivan and his 81 OPS+ will be the fifth-outfielder replacement for Darin Erstad and his grittiness. Cory is almost a duplicate of Erstad—slim, blond, left-handed, seldom walks, strikes out in 20 percent of his at-bats, has very little power, runs fast in center—a born Astro. There was never any doubt about ex-Phillie Jason Michaels and his weak glove and 98 OPS+ taking the fourth-outfielder spot.

Edwin Maysonet, 28 years young, really has no chance at all of replacing utility infielder Jeff Keppinger, although Maysonet is far more versatile, especially with his defense. As for the pitchers, no young pitcher has a chance of making the roster, except for Felipe Paulino, one of the very few players from the Astros minor leagues who long ago was Designated For Success by the Organization, who will give him more chances than he deserves. So, Old Guys it is again—unless, of course, one of them gets hurt and a spot, even a temporary spot, opens up. Don't expect a better record, as the New Old Guys are not an improvement on the Old Old Guys.


Will Matt Lindstrom and Brandon Lyon effectively replace LaTroy Hawkins and Jose Valverde at setup and closer?


Valverde over the past two years was an extremely effective closer who accumulated 69 saves, 11 blown saves and one additional loss. He threw only 54 innings last year because he was injured when a batted ball struck his shin. He recovered fully without incident; he posted an ERA+ of 180. LaTroy Hawkins, picked up off the waiver wire in 2008, threw 84 innings of 1.77 ERA ball over 89 games, compiling 32 holds, 12 saves, four blown saves, three wins and four losses over that year and a half.

Neither Matt Lindstrom nor Brandon Lyon has been a particularly effective closer in the past. Lindstrom started 2009 as the Marlins' closer, and by the time he lost his job in June, he had a 6.53 ERA, 20 walks and 26 strikeouts over 31 innings pitched; in spite of his throwing hard, he has had a BB/9 rate over 4 over the past two years and his K/9 rate is 7.1, low for a power-pitching closer. Brandon Lyon was a setup man for the Tigers in 2009, pitching 78.2 innings over 65 games with a 161 ERA+ and losing five games, with an additional blown save, and posting a K/9 rate of 6.5 and a BB/9 of 3.5, a career-high figure. He had a 4.76 ERA, four losses and five blown saves at the end of August 2008, when he lost his closer's job to Chad Qualls. In 2007, he was an extremely effective setup man for Jose Valverde.

The probability is not good that either man will duplicate Valverde's success; however, Lyon has proved to be an effective setup man and may serve as a very expensive replacement for Hawkins. The real question is how long will Ed Wade allow each man to continue pitching his assigned inning if he proves ineffective before either replacing him with one of the Astros' young pitchers or, more likely, trading Astros minor leaguers for an expensive Proven Middle Reliever?


Will the much-hyped (by the Astros organization) Jason Castro be given the starting catching position to start the year?


Ed Wade has told reporters on the record that Humberto Quintero WILL be the backup catcher; his 58 OPS+ combined with his virtual refusal to walk and propensity to strike out make him the ideal backup catcher, except for his mediocre defensive skills. Castro had a .747 OPS over 239 at-bats at Double-A Corpus Christi in 2009, and he has never faced Triple-A pitching. His opponent for the starting position is 26-year-old J.R. Towles, who failed when given the job of starting catcher in 2008. However, he has an .842 OPS at Triple-A over 356 at-bats and is hitting the ball well in spring training: 11-for-20. If he continues to hit this well, he will probably be given the starting job again, and the Astros will hold Castro back until the Super Two deadline has passed. If Castro is hitting well at Triple-A and if Towles is not hitting well, Castro may be promoted even earlier. The Astros apparently think that Castro is the next Johnny Bench.


Will the monster that is Lance Berkman in even years return for an encore in 2010?


Lance Berkman had a down year (for him) last year, posting a .274/.396/.509/.907 line. He slumped badly to begin the year, posting only a .743 OPS after four weeks of play, and insisted he was not hurt. He then recovered his stroke after sitting out three days, and increased his OPS to .943 by July 22, then missed 25 games because of an injury to his right calf. He did finish with a 139 OPS+ over 136 games, not exactly a poor showing, but many point to his even years' OPS+ since 2002 of 150, 159, 163, 159 and compare them to his odd years since 2003 of 138, 143, 130, 139 and declare that this can't be normal variation, which, of course, it is. This is also his walk year on his five-year contract, and if Berkman has recovered from his minor knee arthroscopy, I would expect him to post at least the same slash line that he did last year over 160 games.


Will Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and/or Roy Oswalt be traded for prospects?


It is not that Ed Wade refuses to try to rebuild, but that all three of those players have COMPLETE no-trade clauses. Carlos Lee has said, on the record, at least three times, that he will refuse any trade; in fact, he has so far refused three trades. Lance Berkman is in the last year of his contract and has been adamant about refusing to be traded to any team except the Rangers, who don't need a first baseman. However, if the Astros make it clear to him that they will not pick up his $15 million option for 2011, it is possible that he might agree to a trade at the deadline. Even if he has to leave Texas. Roy Oswalt has one more year on his five-year deal, and if he posts good numbers in the first half, and if the Astros are doing very poorly, and if Roy demands a trade, he may be traded at the deadline, although it is doubtful because his top two teams are the Braves and the Cardinals. Had Drayton McLane not replaced the pitching coach in the offseason, chances are excellent that Oswalt would himself have demanded a trade. However, the probability is that neither will be traded because the owner wants them both to spend their entire career in an Astros uniform, as Bagwell and Biggio did. And Drayton McLane is the most interfering owner in the majors, now that The Boss has essentially retired.


Bonus question: Will Ed Wade obtain more middle relievers before Opening Day?


Does the sun rise in the east? Is the Pope Catholic? Are the Astros thanking their lucky stars that the Pirates exist so that they won't finish last in the NL Central?

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Lisa Gray 2010-03-18T10:40:15+00:00 Five questions: Houston Astros http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-houston-astros4/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-houston-astros4/#When:05:03:15 The Astros' rotation appears to consist of ace Roy Oswalt, an unappreciated, often hurt lefty (Wandy Rodriguez) and a bunch of has-beens/never weres. What do you expect from the Nos. 2-5 starters in the rotation?

Rodriguez should be the No. 2 starter. He missed approximately two months of the season last year with rib muscle pulls, but otherwise he pitched very well. His ERA last year was 3.54 with a FIP of 3.68, a strikeout rate of 8.9/9 and a walk rate of 2.9/9 IP. He has improved every one of his numbers since arriving in the majors in 2005 since he dropped his ineffective slider and polished his devastating curve ball, and there is no reason to expect him to regress. In 2007, he had unusually wide home/away ERA splits of 2.94/6.37, but they resembled customary home/away numbers last year at 2.99/4.34.

The other three starters will be 37-year-old Brian Moehler, 36-year-old Mike Hampton and 34-year-old Russ Ortiz (yes, the ex-Giant/Diamondback.)

Ortiz was an ace pitcher from 2001 to 2003 and a very good pitcher in '04. From the day he signed his free agent contract with Arizona in '05 until the day he had elbow surgery in mid-2007, he was simply awful. He has lost weight since then. (Yes, of COURSE I know that posted weights for baseball players are usually, uh, not accurate, but his abdomen no longer resembles that of a seven-months-pregnant woman as it did in his years with the Diamondbacks.) Although I know that spring training statistics do not necessarily accurately predict performance in the regular season, Ortiz has done well, giving up 19 hits, 1 homer, 9 walks and 16 strikeouts over 22.1 IP for a 3.22 ERA. In his heyday with the Giants, Russ gave up approximately 1 HR/9, 4 BB/9 and 6 K/9 with a average 3.58 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, but then again, he was 6-8 years younger.

Hampton's last full season was 2004, and he hurt himself midway through 2005; since that time, he has struggled with numerous injuries including elbow ligament replacement surgery. He did return after the break last year and threw 78 innings of 4.58 ERA ball. Ignoring his two dreadful seasons in Colorado, Mike has basically given up 0.6 HR/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9. This spring, he has given up nine runs, 23 hits, no homers, three walks and 16 strikeouts over 21 IP. I hope he will pitch as well as he did last year (which isn't saying much) and that he will throw 32 games, but his injury history over the past five years is rather significant, and one can't really expect a miraculous return to his acehood of his 20s.

Moehler made the team last year as a NRI and was given the job of mopup man. He was inserted into the rotation when Wandy Rodriguez was first hurt and had a surprisingly good year, his first good year since 2005 when he threw 158 innings of 4.55 ERA ball after spending most of the previous three years on the DL. Over 143 innings, he threw 26 games of 4.43 ERA (93 ERA+) ball, giving up 1.2 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9 and 4 K/9. This spring, he has thrown well, given up 24 hits, 4 BB, 9 K, 7 R/6 ER over 26 IP: a 2.08 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. In this age of steroid testing, it would be extraordinary, to say the least, if a 37-year-old pitcher who last posted an ERA under 4.00 11 years ago, improved his pitching numbers.

I should mention Brandon Backe, the only Astro to make all of his starts last year, less than two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He pitched reasonably well for a fifth starter, sporting a 4.72 ERA as late as August 1, when he obviously tired and was twice left in games long enough to give up 11 ER, which sent his ERA into the, shall we say, unacceptable level. He pulled a rib muscle this spring and will start the year on the DL. The team is obviously keeping him as insurance in case one of the three has-beens (or Wandy) either goes on the DL or pitches poorly. Backe will most likely start the year in Triple-A on a "rehab" assignment which may last for at least several weeks, as he only threw a few innings in spring training. It is also possible, that because of his late start as well as having had more time to recover from his elbow surgery, that he will be much stronger and pitch better this year.

You never know...

Michael Bourn, installed as the starting center fielder after being obtained last year for Brad Lidge, had a dreadful year. Do you expect significant improvement?



Last year, many predicted that Bourn would hit .300 and steal 70 bases. They were wrong. Over 514 plate appearances, Bourn struck out once in every 4.63 appearances, had a 3:1 K:BB ratio (and this is BAD, given that he's not a pitcher), stole 41 bases and was caught 10 times for a 80 percent success ratio. Unfortunately, he was made into a leadoff man and his OBP from the leadoff spot was only .279. This year, he will most likely hit in the second or seventh spot and will not be under as much pressure.

He has worked on improving his batting eye and his bunting. This spring, he has significantly improved his OBP to .320 in spite of a batting average of .219, has reduced his strikeout ratio to one in seven plate appearances and decreased his K:BB ratio to 11:10.

Kaz Matsui, this year's leadoff man, interestingly enough, has had an unbelievably poor spring: 70 PA with only 11 hits, two walks and one reached on error. If his slump continues into the regular season, Bourn may again see himself in the leadoff slot. However, I would guess that if after two months Bourn's numbers again resemble last year's, he may find that Wade will not be so patient with him, as this year's team is expected by its owner to "compete" (not with the Pirates for last place, but for a playoff slot.)

How strong is the bench?



The bench consists of Humberto Quintero (51 OPS+ last year as the backup catcher, 52 lifetime OPS+ over 391 at-bats); Darin Erstad (672 OPS [78 OPS+ over 342 PA] last year as fourth outfielder, provided excellent defense); Jason Michaels (ex-Phillie, had OPS of .652, .717, .721 [OPS+ of 73, 87, 85] over past three years with a mediocre glove);
Geoff Blum (had an amazing .705 OPS—84 OPS+—and a career-high 14 homers with the Astros last year—his OPS over the previous three years had been .685, .641, .659 to accompany his mediocre-at-best glove); and two of either Jason Smith (age 30, lifetime 64 OPS+ over 591 PA who's hit .385/.418/.538 this spring but has not impressed with his glove), Edwin Maysonnet or Chris Johnson.

NOT an impressive bench.

Will any rookies crack this year's 25-man roster, given the team's obvious propensity for Proven Veterans?



Aaron Boone was forced to undergo season-ending heart surgery, so it is possible that 24-year-old third baseman Chris Johnson will be given Boone's job as Geoff Blum's righty platoon partner; that is, if the Astros are unable to pick up some Proven Veteran on the waiver wire before the start of the season. Johnson, the Astros' fourth-round pick in 2006, posted an .870 OPS over 330 at-bats in Double-A before being promoted to Triple-A, where he posted a 539 OPS over 101 at-bats. It is possible, of course, that the Astros have somehow not noticed that Johnson has an .849 OPS vs right-handed pitchers and a .544 OPS vs lefties. I should mention that he has posted a .672 OPS over 50 plate appearances this spring. Proven Veteran Geoff Blum, however, has posted a .510 OPS over 55 plate appearances.

It is also possible that Edwin Maysonnet will win the job as utility infielder. He's 27, selected in the 19th round in the 2003 draft. He has a reputation as a glove man, had a .722 OPS over 450 plate appearances in Triple-A last year, and is hitting .318/.348/.773 over 23 plate appearances this spring—numbers which, needless to say, he won't approach in the majors. However, his glove is visibly better than Jason Smith's, so he could win the utility job, in spite of his extreme youth and absence of Veteran Presence.

Baseball Prospectus expects the Astros' win-loss record will be 66-96. The Astros' manager, Cecil Cooper, on the other hand, has stated that he expects this team to WIN, not lose, 90 games. What is your prediction?



I knew you were going to ask me that.

Although many fans insist that this team is essentially the same team as last year, minus Brandon Backe, Ty Wigginton and Mark Loretta, it isn't.

Lance Berkman had a spectacular year, not merely with the bat, but posting career highs in stolen bases (18-for-22), significant improvement in baserunning, scoring 16 times from second on a base hit, being thrown out at the plate only three times, AND his glovework improved to the point that he was the second-best defensive first baseman in the league, behind only Albert Pujols. I could hope for a repeat. Carlos Lee also had a career year with a .937 OPS and only 8 GIDP. The bench of Erstad, Loretta, Blum, Newhan and Abercrombie was unusually strong. LaTroy Hawkins, after being acquired from the Yankees, pitched 22 consecutive scoreless innings over 22 games, a feat which will not be repeated.

For the Astros to again reach 86 wins, the pitchers would have to post their spring training numbers, the bullpen would have to repeat its post All-Star Break excellence, Berkman and Lee would have to repeat their numbers, Ivan Rodriguez and Miguel Tejada would have to post high batting averages (as they are not going to hit for power or walk much) and not ground into too many double plays, Kaz Matsui will have to get on base as he did when healthy last year, and Bourn will have to get on base and steal more.

COULD it happen?

Sure. Every year, about every prediction system has the Astros with a losing record, in fourth or fifth place, and since 2004, except for The Biggio Retirement Tour Year, the Astros have managed a second-half Run For The Playoffs from seemingly nowhere. Last year, the Astros had the best post All-Star break record in the majors.

So although I doubt that Hampton, Ortiz and Moehler will pitch as well as they did in spring training, let alone their good old days, and I doubt that Pudge will replace Wigginton's production, all I can say is that it is the Astros and with this team, you never know.

I'm predicting 81 wins, hoping for 86 and praying for 90.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Lisa Gray 2009-04-01T05:03:15+00:00 Five Questions: Houston Astros http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-houston-astros3/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-houston-astros3/#When:04:07:15 1. The starting rotation appears to consist of Roy Oswalt and a bunch of No. 4 and No. 5 guys. Can anyone step up and become a solid No. 2?
Unfortunately, the probability is that Woody Williams (89 ERA+ over the past three years, 83 ERA+ last year), Shawn Chacon (110 ERA+ last year as a reliever, mostly), Brandon Backe (lifetime 93 ERA+, including games he played hurt) and Wandy Rodriguez (96 ERA+ over 31 GS last year: lifetime 83 ERA+) will not throw 200 innings of 110 ERA+ ball or even 100 ERA+ ball.

Chris Sampson (109 ERA+ as both a starter and reliever), the dark horse candidate for the rotation, actually has the stuff to be the Astros' No. 2 starter, but unfortunately, he requires excellent left-side defense, as he is a sinkerballer and this year's gloves will not be helpful. Lefty Wandy Rodriguez developed a very good, sharp curveball last year under the tutelage of Brad Ausmus and pitching coach Dave Wallace; he also decided to throw his fastball for strikes and led the starters in strikeouts. If he can overcome his difficulty with concentration under emotional stress, he very well could improve this year. Felipe Paulino will, barring injuries to two or more of the above pitchers, begin the year in Triple-A and it is, of course, possible that he will excel, be promoted and continue to excel, but very few pitchers are able to not only make the jump from Double-A, but move into the No. 2 spot in the rotation.

2. Has the bullpen improved from last year?

Well, last year, the bullpen consisted of (ERA+ over the past three years/last year):

Their combined record was 15-21, with 51 saves in 72 opportunities over 406.1 innings.

This year (barring injury or unexpected choice of rookie over veteran) will consist of:

Their combined record was 22-13 with 50 saves in 62 opportunities over 431.2 IP.

The number of saves is the same, but mostly accumulated by one man. There are eight more wins, eight fewer losses, nine fewer blown saves and an additional 25 innings, so at least on paper, this bullpen appears to be an improvement over last year's: of course, the problem with relievers is that it is extremely difficult to predict how they will do from one year to another, so the answer is that for now, the fans are ecstatic because Lidge and Qualls are gone.

3. Will the defense be better this year?

The Astros team defense was, with the exception of Luke Scott and Hunter Pence, absolutely dreadful after the loss of Adam Everett (replaced by the lead glove Mark Loretta) and the benching of Morgan Ensberg (replaced by lead gloves Mike Lamb and Ty Wigginton.)

Carlos Lee, the third worst left fielder in the NL is still there, Lance Berkman, the second worst first baseman in the NL is still there, Ty Wigginton, who is way below league average, is still there. Miguel Tejada is a significant downgrade from Adam Everett, probably a good 30 to 35 runs worth, but at least he is better than Mark Loretta. Kaz Matsui at second, is a significant upgrade from what was left of Craig Biggio, but as Matsui has never played more than 114 games in a season, his replacement would be either Geoff Blum or Mark Loretta, both of whom are not an upgrade over Biggio, unfortunately.

Justin (JR) Towles, a rookie, is supposed to be a good defensive catcher, but then again, so is the man he is replacing, Ausmus. Pence and Scott in center and right have been replaced by Michael Bourn in center and Pence in right. Bourn is supposed to be a good defensive fielder by reputation, but only played 104 innings in the field last year, far too few to make a good judgment. Pence was league average in center last year, and it is reasonable to suppose he would be at least league average in right. So the conclusion is that with the exception of second base (67 percent of the games) and possibly center field, the defense has not only not upgraded, it has downgraded.

4. How strong is the bench?

Barring injury or a miracle, the bench will consist of (three-year OPS+/last year's OPS+):

I trust this answers your question.

5. Is it really true that new manager Cecil Cooper plans to bat Kaz Matsui and his .256/.305/.367 line away from Coors in the No. 2 spot and waste Hunter Pence .322/.360/.539 in the No. 6 spot?

So far, that is in fact the plan. You see, Kaz runs fast and if he happens to get on base, that will create pressure on the defense. Speed is what wins ballgames these days—remember the '03 Marlins with Pierre/Castillo. Also, he can bunt Michael Bourn over if necessary because teams wouldn't walk Berkman to get to Tejada/Lee because those two almost never GIDP.

You see, it would be best to have Kaz hit singles with Bourn on first, or even with bases empty because Kaz almost never clogs up the bases by walking and it might make things difficult and complicated if you had a No. 2 hitter who had a better average, OBP and slugging, because what if he drove in Bourn from first and cut down on the running game? Can't have that. And it is important to ignore the fact that Pence also runs very well.

Bonus Question: Will Roger Clemens join the rotation in June?

No. This time, he really has finished his career. However, unless Bud Selig instructs Drayton McLane to buy out Clemens' personal services contract, that will start as soon as Roger officially retires, which I would guess will be at the conclusion of the FBI investigation and perjury trial.

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1. Unhappiness by many Astros fans who were delighted to see new bats replacing Craig Biggio, Jason Lane, Adam Everett, Chris Burke and Luke Scott and delighted to see an almost entirely new bullpen and

2. The usual amusement of fans who believe "team chemistry" to be a antiquated term that attempts to define an amorphous feeling that can neither be explicitly quantified nor accurately defined.

If the term "team chemistry" were bandied about by only the media, then I would consider it merely a media invention. But best I can tell, its use by the ballplayers themselves predated its use by the media. Therefore, I'm not surprised that Berkman, the new de facto "team leader" would be concerned about this. A baseball team is composed of 25 men who spend the better part of seven or eight months together. Some groups of men work better together than other groups. Groups can divide into rival cliques with rival leaders, all vying for more power. That can significantly interfere with working relationships.

The Astros' 2007 season marked only the team's second losing one since 1991, and as the farm is virtually empty, the owner and GM had the choice of entering the 2008 season with essentially the same players and hoping for improved performance from everyone, or removing much of that team's roster and replacing it with new players. They chose the latter.

Of the 25 players who were Astros on Opening Day 2007, only seven or eight will be Astros on Opening Day 2008. Of the players who were on the Astros' 25-man roster as of Aug. 30, only 10 remain, plus two who were with the Astros organization at that time. This means that roughly half the team will be completely new to the organization.

I was wondering what happened in the following year to teams who replaced half of one year's roster. Now I know very well that if you replace five Mario Mendozas with five Albert Pujols types and half of your pitching staff with aces, the club will improve. However, that never happens, not even to the Yankees or Red Sox. I also know that there are different umpires, different strike zones, different baseballs, different opposing pitchers, different opposing hitters and nothing stays exactly the same from year to year.

I looked at teams since 1994, and the percentage of plate appearances in a given year that were contributed by players who were on the team in the previous year. In 2008, The Astros will receive fewer than 48 percent of PA from players who were on the team in 2007. I compared them with the following teams from 1995 to 2006 who received fewer than 48 percent of PA from players who were on the team the previous year. I also looked at their before-and-after winning percentages, as well as noting whether, like the Astros, they changed managers from the beginning of one year to the next:
Year    Team    Turnover     Previous W%   W%            Manager change?
1995    TEX     45%          0.456         0.514         Yes
1997    SF      45%          0.420         0.556         No
1999    PIT     46%          0.486         0.424         No
2000    CHC     39%          0.414         0.401         Yes
2000    COL     47%          0.444         0.506         Yes
2002    NYM     48%          0.506         0.466         No
2002    SD      46%          0.488         0.407         No
2003    CHC     47%          0.414         0.543         Yes
2003    COL     45%          0.451         0.457         Yes
2003    MIL     43%          0.346         0.420         Yes
2003    SD      43%          0.407         0.395         No
2003    SF      44%          0.590         0.621         Yes
2003    TAM     33%          0.342         0.389         Yes
2004    COL     45%          0.457         0.420         No
2004    NYM     41%          0.410         0.438         No
2005    LAD     41%          0.574         0.438         No
2005    ARI     42%          0.315         0.475         Yes
2006    FLA     35%          0.512         0.481         Yes
2006    LAD     36%          0.438         0.543         Yes
2006    SD      42%          0.506         0.543         No
Ah, you all noticed that I have listed exactly 20 teams and only two are in the American League. In fact, 70 percent of the NL teams are from the West. 11 teams changed managers, and of those that did, seven had better records the following year. Eleven of the 20 teams had improved records the year after rolling over more than half the players.

I didn't know if the acceleration of the rollover rate was a recent phenomenon, so I examined the rollover rate since division play began in 1969. Well, until 1995, only the following 18 teams, 10 of which are AL teams, rolled over fewer than 48 percent of their players from one year to the next:
Year    Team    Turnover     Previous W%   W%            Manager change?
1971    CHW     47%          0.388         0.565         No
1972    CLE     44%          0.370         0.462         Yes
1973    CLE     43%          0.462         0.438         No
1975    SF      48%          0.444         0.497         Yes
1977    CHC     46%          0.463         0.500         Yes
1978    OAK     20%          0.391         0.426         Yes
1981    CHW     32%          0.438         0.509         No
1981    CHC     41%          0.395         0.369         Yes
1981    SD      47%          0.471         0.353         Yes
1982    CHC     44%          0.369         0.451         Yes
1982    TEX     44%          0.543         0.395         Yes
1983    SEA     41%          0.469         0.370         No
1985    MON     45%          0.485         0.522         Yes
1989    CLE     44%          0.481         0.451         No
1990    CLE     44%          0.451         0.474         Yes
1992    KC      42%          0.506         0.444         Yes
1992    NYM     44%          0.478         0.444         Yes
1993    SP      48%          0.506         0.377         Yes
Of these 18 teams, 13 changed managers, and of those, eight increased their winning percentage. I'm not surprised that slightly more than half of manager changes resulted in increased wins—that happens more often than not regardless of the team's record the previous year. Overall, nine of 18 teams improved their winning percentage the year after rolling over more than half of the team.

So, what can I conclude from these numbers? Well, if a team changes managers, it is more likely than not likely to improve its winning percentage, but a team that rolls over more than half its players has approximately a 50-50 chance of bettering its record, regardless of manager change.

So, based on these numbers, can I reasonably expect the Astros to improve their record this year and, by the way, exactly what does all this have to do with chemistry? If I had to guess, I'd say it's baseball, so youneverknow.

As for the chemistry, it's simple: If the team improves, it had better chemistry. If the team does worse, the chemistry was worse. At least that is how the team leader can explain success or failure to the media, who will accept that explanation happily, even if I won't. But I still have no more idea than when I started if or how chemistry affects pitching, hitting or fielding because there is a factor you can't find a formula for: the mind of the player. As a wise woman once told me, people don’t believe what they see, they see what they believe and the mind is a very powerful thing.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Lisa Gray 2008-02-01T04:02:15+00:00 Roger Clemens and Houston, Texas: A Love Story http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/roger-clemens-and-houston-texas-a-love-story/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/roger-clemens-and-houston-texas-a-love-story/#When:04:05:15 Roger Clemens and Houston, Texas were involved in a romance that could have come straight out of a novel.

Perhaps I should explain a bit: playing baseball isn't exactly a recent phenomenon in Texas. We've had the Texas League, which gave us good minor league ball long before the minors became the farm clubs of the majors. Over the past 50 years, Texas high schools and colleges have sent countless players to the pros. Although the best Texan ballplayer of all time is undoubtedly the first "Rogah," Rogers Hornsby, the state's most famous ballplayer, the one most strongly identified with Texas is Nolan Ryan, who brought life to the Rangers, when John McMullen, the Astros owner, figured Nolan had to be washed up at age 41.

Until that October in 1988, Dallas had been a city where "sports" meant the Cowboys, the football team whose owner left an opening in the roof of their stadium so the good Lord could watch His team play. Nolan brought fans to Arlington Stadium in numbers that hadn't been seen since the heyday of David Clyde and put the Rangers on the front page of the Dallas Morning News. In fact, news about Nolan's pitching often displaced news about which Cowboy had stubbed his toe on his way to training camp, an incredible feat unsurpassed to this day. But I'll tell you this: if he had been from, say, Alaska, it wouldn't have made much of a stir. You see, Nolan Ryan was a Texan born and raised and he was most certainly going to be a Hall of Famer and he was a Native Son, and you see, that was an absolutely crucial element to his popularity.

I told this story about Nolan because it is the prelude to the Coming of Roger. Astros fans were furious that Nolan had been dismissed so cavalierly, had been snatched away by the Other Texas Team to be their Hall of Famer. It's true that keeping Nolan Ryan wouldn't really have had an effect on the terrible Astros teams of the late 80s and early 90s, but it was the principle of the thing, you see. The Astros went on to have better and better teams, finally reaching the playoffs for the first time in 11 years in 1997. Astros attendance remained fairly steady, but not remarkable, in spite of having stars Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio. Fan interest increased somewhat when Randy Johnson was obtained for the stretch run in 1998, but even then fan interest wasn't sufficient to sell out the Astrodome for the first round of the playoffs. After Johnson left for Arizona after the first round loss in the playoffs, fan interest waned, recovering only somewhat with the opening of the new stadium.

By October 2003, Billy Wagner had made his infamous remark about Drayton McLane, the Astros owner, being unwilling to pay for the extra player that would turn the Astros from merely "competitive" to winners. Conventional wisdom said that Houston isn't really a baseball town, that fans would never turn out in droves to support the Astros—they never had before, not even in 1986, the magical year of Mike Scott. And Astros fans most certainly wholeheartedly agreed with Billy Wags, who was unceremoniously shipped out of town post haste for a few pitching prospects. Grumbling increased as season ticket sales dropped.

Then, a miracle occurred. The Yankees, for some reason, didn't make a competitive offer to Andy Pettitte, a local boy made good. Pettitte decided he wanted to play at home and signed a three-year contract in December of 2003. Now, Drayton had already gone the signing homeboys route when he bought the team in 1992, signing Greg Swindell and Doug Drabek. It was a good marketing idea, but the pitchers didn't pitch very well, so the fans didn't embrace the pitchers. However, Andy was a bigger name, having pitched and won in four World Series for the Yankees and earned the title of Big Game Pitcher.

Andy had one additional asset: his best friend and training buddy, a legend, a Houstonian—the newly "retired" Roger Clemens.

Suddenly, and for the first time ever, baseball was the sport on everyone's lips in January, during football season, preempting Super Bowl coverage. The question :Will Roger unretire?" took over FM radio, papers and TV. Football, basketball, every other sport was barely mentioned because of the endless "Roger, we love you, Roger please play for the Astros" pleas in the paper, on the radio. Roger's kids were on TV, on the radio, saying they wanted him to bring the Series to Houston. Roger finally caved in and signed like a guy who wanted to all along, but just needed to hear all the begging and pleading first, and he signed for basically pennies.

How could a baseball player possibly be more loved? A hometown hero, a legend, chooses to play at home and he does it for love, not money. True romance. "Oh, myyyyyyyy," as Annie Savoy would say. Houston simply went Astros crazy and at a time of the year when the word "baseball" wasn't even thought, let alone mentioned. Ticket sales, shals we say, rocketed. Clemens and Pettitte jerseys sold out as soon as they arrived. Houston was deeply, madly, hopelessly in the throes of a passionate love affair.

And Roger? Well, seemed as if he was just as deeply in love. He was used to lots of media, spotlights and recognition. But he had never received the volume of adoration that he received from hometown fans and he relaxed and enjoyed himself in a way that he had never done before. He enjoyed playing with his best friend without George and the NY media dogging his every pitch. He loved playing host to the baseball world during the All-Star game. "Welcome to my home," he said, and he obviously meant every word. He was deluged with the kind of attention that he had never experienced before. Houstonians and Texans turned out in the streets by the thousands to celebrate the All-Star festivities, something they hadn't done in 1986 during the previous All-Star game.

The 2004 team was supposed to excel, but only managed to play .500 ball for the first half of the season, but Roger kept drawing full houses and kept media attention on the team.

When Andy went down for the season in August, Roger changed gears and started working with the other pitchers and discovered he loved being a teacher. The term "team leader" gets a lot of use, but Roger was exactly that. The Astros won all six or Roger's games in September and when the stretch run for the wild card came, Roger gave interviews right and left, helping raise Astro-fever to such an all time high that during the wild card clinching series with the lowly Rockies, even the scalpers were sold out and fans lined the streets around the ballpark and, incredibly, NLDS, NLCS and World Series tickets sold out before the wild card was clinched on the very last day of the season.

Unfortunately, for the want of a starting pitcher and a reliever, the Astros 2004 season was lost to the Cardinals, but Astros fever and Roger adoration dimmed not a bit. The fans begged and pleaded with him to stay, to pitch another year, to love them back, and Roger, after pretending to have to think it over, re-signed, this time for a record setting $18 million dollars. The fans didn't care about the money, they just wanted their Roger back. And he spent the winter appearing at countless banquets, charities, speeches, and hospitals and even when Carlos Beltran left Houston for the city he really wanted to play for, we fans all consoled ourselves with the thought that at least we still had Roger.

It seemed to be a marriage made in heaven; and marriage it was because Roger had signed a 10-year personal services contract with the Astros, beginning at a time to be designated by Roger as his retirement. And, my friends, the second year of love was simply superb and culminated in the Astros first NL pennant. We fans did, of course, forget Roger's poor start against Atlanta, but joyously celebrated his three inning, four strikeout win of the historic 18 inning NLDS clinching Game 4.

But, in case you didn't know, romance novels always end after the couple resolves misunderstandings and say "I do." And had this story been a true romance novel, Brad Lidge wouldn't have given up that infamous home run to Albert Pujols, forcing a Game 6, thus throwing the rotation out of whack, and maybe the Astros would have won the World Series and Roger would have retired after going out on top again and he and we would have lived happily ever after. But life is what happens when you are busy making other plans, as John Lennon said, and that very winter, cracks started to appear in the bliss.

Roger extended his usual "I don't know if I want to retire or not" dance all winter, angering, rather than enticing many fans. He said he wanted to go to the World Baseball Classic, that he wanted to go to spring training and work with the younguns, that he wasn't sure if he would come back, and then he waited for the usual pleading and begging. But, as my mother warned me, the very same actions that are so endearing during courtship and romance are the very ones that become irritating after marriage. Roger finally agreed to come back, signing a contract on the last day of May for $22 million, a record breaking contract for a pitcher. Fans grumbled that he was a prima donna, that he was mercenary, that he wanted to appear on June 22, swooping in to magically resuscitate the Astros lackluster season. He was, of course, a glowing mega star, and his presence kept the cameras trained on him as he worked his way through the minors and kept national media attention on the Astros.

But, you know, he didn't seem to be as in love as he used to be with the idea of being the one the Houston Astros fans loved mostest. You could almost feel his surreptitious glances at New York and Boston, the teams he said he rejected for us in the spring. He started late that season and tired early, losing time and innings in September to problems with his legs. And sure enough, after the season ended, the season that Luke Scott, not Roger resurrected for an exciting but futile race to the finish, Roger again performed his usual "gee, I don't know if I want to retire" dance. Fans couldn't make up their minds if they wanted him to stay and put up with his forcing us to beg again or to tell him to leave.

But Drayton McLane decided to let Andy Pettitte go when he started singing Roger's "gee I don't know if I want to retire or not" refrain. Andy, shocked that he didn't get so much as a halfhearted wooing, went back to the Yankees. Roger became even more vague about his desires and fans became resigned to losing him to the prettier girl with the flashier jewelry and the bigger, uh, fan base. No, resigned, is the wrong word. Angered is the right word, as in hell hath no fury like a hometown team fanbase scorned. "Jerk!" they screamed. "Prima Donna egotist!" they yelled. But yet as they blamed him for walking out when the going got rough, they still sometimes talked about getting him back.

The 2007 team was, how shall I put it, not good. Roger wouldn't have made enough of a difference to the sorry team and its poor management, but fans still resented him for abandoning them, although he certainly didn't abandon his mountain of charity work. Greedy, pampered, prima donna, jerk, unfaithful Roger who left his previously adoring fans in the lurch, didn't exactly excel with his new partner. He had a poor year by his standards and for the third year in a row, tired in September and in fact was unable to perform in the playoffs at all. He had just barely decided to come home and begin his personal services contract when the Mitchell Report was released.

That he had decided to come back home after his affair with the glamorous Yankees mattered not a bit to most of the fans. The very ones who had loved him, adored him, begged him to be theirs turned on him in an instant. If he was accused he must be guilty, they said. If his best friend did drugs then he must have done drugs too, they said. The vast majority of fans who call into radio shows, who write to the paper, who blog and post on blogs have judged him guilty and have heaped invective upon him and showered him with rage, contempt and hate.

This really has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that Roger's supposed sin is using steroids, or even allowing some other man to inject a foreign substance into his buttocks. Miguel Tejada, against whom there is more and better evidence of steroid use, has been welcomed with open arms with seldom a discouraging word to be heard. This is not to say that Houston fans don't oppose steroid use—they certainly do, as long as the steroid user is named Barry Lamar Bonds or Mark McGwire or anyone else who wasn't on the Astros or was any good—you won't see them booing Ryan Franklin or J.C. Romero.

I am sure that if Roger had returned last year even though Andy didn't, the mountain of fans now vilifying him would be defending him. This is the sad epilogue to the tale of the beautiful romance, the marriage made in heaven, or at least, Texas. I keep hearing Gladys Knight singing "There can be no way this can have a happy ending, no, no" because Houston Astros fans weren't the first to say good bye.

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Of course, 50 years ago, there were no major league teams in the South, either, and in fact, there were only 16 teams in the entire United States. The minimum salary 50 years ago was $6,000, just as it had been at the end of the World War II. The owners didn't completely own their ballplayers as slaveowners owned slaves, but a ballplayer who signed with any major league team forfeited his right thereafter to determine which team he could play for or to sell his services to the highest bidder.

Almost none of this seems believeable, does it? We stare at pictures of "whites only" signs and hardly can believe that our parents saw them every day. And times have changed so significantly that we can stare in disbelief. And it was only 50 years ago that baseball players had no pension, had no (working) union, had no rights, and were traded to other teams whether or not they wished to be traded and were paid such low salaries (except for the few stars) that they needed to obtain work in the offseason in order to support a family.

Marvin Miller changed all that. Or, perhaps I should say, he was the catalyst for that change.

I don't know exactly why attitudes in general shift, but they do. Perhaps the ballplayers felt the winds of change swirling about civil rights and sexual liberation in the '60s, and that awakened their sense of repression. The union had in fact been created in 1953, but was essentially dormant until Marvin Miller was hired as chief counsel in 1966.

Things began to change as soon as he took over. The owners had maintained supreme power since 1900 and were accustomed to looking at ballplayers with contempt, as slaveowners looked at slaves—unfortunately necessary, but lowlife just the same.

How interesting it is that every group of people seems to have a "those people," a different group that is freely treated with contempt as a lower order of being. The baseball players were most certainly a "those people" to the rich owners. I was amused when I heard the story of why M. Donald Grant supposedly hated Tom Seaver (and his high salary), namely because the salary would grant (hahahaha) him access to M. Donald's country club. The thought of one of "those people" in his inner sanctum of "proper people" was almost too much to bear.

Powerful people simply don't take poor people, workers, low status beings, seriously. They are accustomed to ordering them around, dismissing them on whim. The problem of being the owner of a baseball team, as opposed to the owner of a factory, is that the baseball player is the finished product, and major league baseball players are actually rare because playing baseball at a professional level requires both talent (with which you have to be born) and great skill. You simply can't throw any old 25 people on a baseball field and have major league quality baseball games.

The owners didn't and wouldn't, except for Charlie FInley, take the union seriously, because it was composed of "those people." So they didn't carefully and seriously plan fights against the union, believing that any concession whatsoever would grant something to "those people." For years, the owners hyperfocused on their only strategy, breaking the union and forcing the players to accept as little money as possible, not because the owners were not making money, but for the principle of the thing, that "those people" should be kept down.

Marvin Miller did a great deal of good, ensuring that the ballplayers received their fair share of profits, ensuring a good pension system, ensuring that ballplayers, after six years of service in the minors or majors, could become free agents and sell their services to the highest bidder, as any working man or woman in any other industry in America could do. By the time Miller retired in 1983, the union had decisively won every single battle against the owners.

Revenge is a dish best tasted cold, so they say.

Although higher salaries and good medical care led to better ballplayers who could play longer, healthier careers, and finally to the incredibly lucrative business of MLB, in which even terrible baseball teams such as the Pirates earn their owners profits of at least $30-50 million a year, the owners and executives have never forgiven Miller. It isn't just that they believe that workers should be paid minimum wage if possible and they should make all the profit from someone else's work. It is that "those people" are the stars and it is all Miller's fault.

Over the past five years, they have largely managed to turn public sentiment against "greedy" ballplayers instead of those "greedy" owners who milk the taxpayers by lying about the value of a publicly funded stadium to the area and keep 60% of the gross profits, as opposed to only 40% seven years ago. But they still harbor a resentment for Miller.

The new and not improved Veterans Committee appointed by the Hall of Fame, consisting mostly of old executives, decisively voted down 90-year-old Miller and voted in his first opponent, Bowie Kuhn. If he were a baseball player, Kuhn would be Baseball Prospectus' infamous "replacement level player."

Now. you might say that Miller wasn't either an executive or an owner, which would be true. But the truth is that the owners actually owe him, because if he hadn't organized the players and made it worth the while of great athletes to play baseball, those athletes would be playing some other sport and baseball today would have the popularity of your average A-ball team. Or even worse, the WNBA.

Truth is, as Barry Lamar Bonds once said, "Of course we should make it. We're the ones doing the entertaining." People aren't going to pay big bucks to watch A-ball quality, networks aren't going to pay big bucks to broadcast A-ball quality games, and Marvin Miller should be given the recognition he deserves.

But it won't happen in his lifetime. The desire for petty revenge is too great.

Some things never change.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Lisa Gray 2007-12-18T04:02:15+00:00 My favorite baseball players http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/my-favorite-baseball-players/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/my-favorite-baseball-players/#When:04:03:15 Kevin Bass, he was surprised. Actually, stunned would be a more accurate description. I guess he was expecting to hear the name of one of the usual suspects: Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman, Jimmy Wynn, Jose Cruz, Larry Dierker, Mike Scott, Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens or Roy Oswalt. Those gentlemen are undoubtedly the best ballplayers who have played for the Astros franchise, but the best ballplayers aren't necessarily my favorite ballplayers. It's not that I don't recognize or appreciate excellence, but excellence alone is not enough, and sometimes it isn't much when I find myself rooting for a new favorite.

The fantasy that I think most of us have about baseball is that we think (foolishly) that any one of us could go right on out there onto that beautiful, enticing field and play (and we'd do it for free, too. But that's an issue for another time.) We have had fantasy baseball for years and years, meaning that we have had fantasies about who any particular ballplayer is as a person and we have melded that into his on-field performance and we all like to watch and root for certain kinds of players, and yes, incorporating our projections of his personality.
So, what do I like?

1) I like watching men who are graceful, sure-footed and appear to move swiftly and effortlessly, like a large jungle cat. This means I have a weakness for great fielding outfielders and shortstops who do not do things like dive for balls because they got bad jumps or jump and throw because they got to the ball so late and it's their only prayer of getting the ball to its target. I also love watching basestealers.

2) I like ballplayers who represent rags to riches stories, guys who were drafted at the bottom of the barrel, expected to be minor league filler, at best, and through persistance and sheer force of dominating will, worked themselves into the major leagues.

3) I like ballplayers who are what I would call "team players" and by that, I mean a ballplayer who actually makes a team better, not just with bat and glove, but with his personality, bringing out the best in the other men. He is the player who gets 25 individuals to turn into a cohesive team. This, by the way, is what I personally think is REAL "leadership" not some guy who happens to be older who bites at some young guy's heels for the purpose of humiliating him or keeping him in his "place."

4) Last, but not least, I also happen to like ballplayers who are hot. And how do I define "hot?" I can only offer the Potter Stewart defense: I know it when I see it. And I do not want to hear any complaints from male readers about that particular aspect of my fandom, as I know quite well that you are not enamored of Anna Kournikova's figure skating prowess or whatever athletic feat it is she is supposed to be performing outside of shaking her booty.

So here are my top 10 favorite ballplayers who I have actually seen play (and yes, I understand that this list must necessarily omit Freddie Patek and Johnny Evers and Rabbit Maranville and Joe Morgan and Hack Wilson and Wee Willie Keeler and Kid Nichols, to name a few ...)

10) David Eckstein, aka "That Dratted Pest." True, he's neither graceful nor hot. Come to think of it, he's not the best fielder, hitter or basestealer either. Drafted in the 19th round, released by the team that drafted him, he simply refused to lose and his indomitable spirit triumphed over all scouts' predictions. After the 2002 World Series, Barry Lamar Bonds expressed his admiration for The Pest's ability to make so much of so very little. As for me, when I fall into a funk, unsure of my ability to even begin to start to think of doing what needs to be done, I think of The Pest, and I say to myself—if he can play major league baseball, then you can cook that dinner for 18 people tonight (it is too the same thing, and if you weren't men you'd understand perfectly.)

9) Ozzie Smith. He really was a wizard with that glove, a magician on his feet. I used to hope that every single ball would be hit to short, just so I could watch him. His movements seemed effortless, his throws unhurried, easy, deadly accurate. I never tired of watching him and my only regret is that in those days, so few games were televised. I know he wasn't really an underdog, and he certainly wasn't hot, but he exceeded all expectations in every way.

8) Doug Glanville. A beautiful, graceful and very intelligent man. He's not one of my underdogs, in fact, he was a No. 1 pick who most certainly never lived up to expectations, except for his fielding. I heard many of his interviews and watched him interact with the tough Philly crowd and sooth the troubled waters roiled by manager Larry Bowa, a notoriously irritable man. Doug, to me, is the one person who best defines the word "intangibles," which is the very definition of Team Leader. Jeff Angus discusses Doug in his wonderful book "Management By Baseball." He says, "His personal productivity never made him a star, but his demeanor and ability to make a team more effective were invaluable through intangible positives." Jeff somehow forgot to mention the positive effect Doug had on female fans as well.

7) Brad Ausmus. A tangible positive, smoking hot and extremely intelligent without a hint of either smugness or arrogance. Drafted as an afterthought out of high school in the 48th round, he managed to play minor league ball and attend and graduate from an Ivy League school at the same time. That is simply awesome, the epitome of intellect and perseverance. In fact, I can't find another major leaguer who has accomplished that. Of course, I didn't know his history when I first saw him play, but I did know I liked the way he moved and the way he interacted with the pitchers and the other members of the Astros. He was considered by both pitchers and hitters to be such a necessary part of the team that when he was traded after the 1998 season, the pitchers and players lobbied ceaselessly to get him back. After the disastrous 2000 season, with the players practically in open revolt, starting to blame the manager for everything that had gone wrong, the organization reacquired him to pour oil on stormy waters and work with all the new, young pitchers who were to pitch in already notorious Home-Run Field. He will most certainly be in great demand as a manager or baseball announcer, which will be a great loss for the underwear modeling community.

6) Casey Candaele. Yes, you read that correctly. I know he's a utility guy who was at best a mediocre hitter, had an adequate glove, was an adequate baserunner, and who was neither graceful nor hot. He's certainly an underdog, a little guy who was undrafted and fought his way to the bigs, managed to play for nine years and always gave the game what little he had, the ultimate gritty, scrappy guy with good quotes the sportswriters love. But he's one of my all time favorite players because he had the guts to say in public that his mother taught him to play baseball and that if he was half as good as she had been, he'd be in the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. And in fact, his mother is in that very Hall, in the "Women in Baseball" wing. Her name was Helen Callaghan, she was 5-foot-1 and 115 pounds and she was a center fielder who led the league in stolen bases and hit for average and power. So here's to a man who was proud to say—I wish I hit like my mother.

5) Adam Everett. He's so incredibly good with the glove that he never appears on Web Gems. He makes the toughest play look simple, and if there is one thing that Web Gems doesn't like, it's a fielder who gets to the ball so quickly, releases it so quickly and throws so accurately that it looks as if it's merely one more routine play. You wouldn't think he'd be that good—he's tall and skinny, neither elegant nor graceful, but he's lightning quick. Perhaps it was all the years of watching Julio Lugo, Tim Bogar, Cesar Cedeno, Eric Yelding and
Rafael Ramirez that allowed me to really appreciate greatness when I saw it.

4) Roy Oswalt. My favorite Underdog pitcher. He was supposed to be too small to be a right-handed pitcher, but if anyone told Roy that, it went in one ear and out the other. The man is as obstinate as a Missouri mule. The first time I ever saw him, or, in fact, ever heard of him, he was pitching in the 2000 Olympics. I received a phone call from my mother in the middle of the night, telling me to turn on the TV right that minute, that an Astros pitcher named Roy Oswalt was pitching and that he was going to be an ace. I did as she said, and stared, watching him throw unhittable fastballs and curves and I felt an electric tingle go up and down my spine. My mother was right, as usual. Like any other pitcher, he has a bad game now and then, but he is usually as electric as he was that summer night in 2000.

3) Kevin Bass. A solid ballplayer with a very good bat and glove who just happens to be very hot. He was never an underdog, never a star, but he always worked diligently to do his best. And I just liked him because he always seemed like a solid and decent man. He sometimes appears on the Astros post-game shows on Fox and I found to my delight that he is still handsome and athletic and he still seems like a solid and decent man who is a firm believer that if he is going to do something, he is going to do a good job of it. My kind of man.

2) The Natural. Rickey, of course. He was one of the 10 best five-tool ballplayers who ever played in the majors. There just wasn't anything he couldn't do well. Pitchers hated to see Barry Lamar at the plate, but they hated to see Rickey on the basepaths just as much. Rickey moved so well, you almost forgot he could hit, too. When Rickey was very young, someone must have told him - don't think, you can only hurt the ballclub (quoting the famous line from Bull Durham, of course) and he took it to heart. Except for that one time, perhaps, when he was 19 and he turned to Ralph Wiley just before it was his turn to bat and said, "I think I'll go hit the ball 450 feet." And he did. I still miss him.

1) Barry Lamar himself. Only an underdog in his own mind, worrying that his father would never think he was good enough. When I was young, he was movie-star handsome, graceful as a panther, lightning fast in the field and on the bases. When I was grown and he gave up on being a five-tool guy, understanding that only homers commanded money and respect, he was still movie-star handsome, graceful as a panther and just as compelling to watch at the plate as he had been on the field. I'm just as fascinated with him as a grown married woman with children as I was as a small girl. And oh how I'll miss him. What is that old expression? Often imitated, never duplicated.

Honorable Mention:

Roger Clemens. He's about as graceful as a cement block and he's the very definition of a modern prima donna, but every single Astros fan should tip his/her cap to The Roger because he was enough of a star to make Astros baseball the sport in Houston, Texas, a feat which no player, manager, owner or team had managed to accomplish.

David Justice. The Pamela Anderson of ballplayers—great to look at until he opens his mouth.

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There are, of course, the never-ending complaints that the home plate umpire doesn't call the same pitch a strike for both pitchers and that they tend to give the benefit of the doubt on borderline calls to known great veteran hitters with a reputation of good judgement of the strike zone. Until some sort of hologram 3-D computer program which emanates from the plate itself is created, Questec will have to serve as a rough judge of umpire error, and individual judgement of the "strike zone" will continue.

But the most recent, most serious and most egregious of problems is one of recent origin, that of the umpire who baits a player. I had discussed earlier in the year in my own blog how Angel Hernandez, the home plate umpire, during an Astros/Dodgers game, for no obvious reason, had taken it upon himself to march out to the mound and confront Wandy Rodriguez after yelling at him from home plate. Fortunately, Wandy looked at the ground and said nothing and Brad Ausmus ran out to the mound and defused the situation. I have no idea if the Astros Base Ball Club lodged any sort of quiet complaint with the Commissioner's office. Because Wandy Rodriguez doesn't pitch for a big-name team and isn't someone who is ever in the spotlight, no one except Astros fans noticed.

However, Milton Bradley IS a person with a known national reputation of being a man who, shall we say, is quick to anger and finds it, shall we again say, difficult to neither speak his mind when asked nor not rise to the occasion when provoked. Several weeks ago during a Padres-Rockies game, the problem of the umpires baiting the players rose to national prominence. In the fifth inning, Milton was called out on strikes. It wasn't a borderline call and there was absolutely no question of the validity of the call. Milton looked disgusted with himself, didn't appear to say anything to the ump and didn't have body language suggesting that he blamed the umpire instead of himself.

We all know the rest of the story: Bradley discovered that Mike Winters, the first base umpire, had told the home plate umpire that Bradley had thrown his bat at him after the strike three call, that Milton had subsequently asked Winters if he had indeed said such a thing, and that he not only affirmed this, but informed Milton that he (reworded for the sake of G-rating) really wasn't a good and decent sort of bloke. Upon hearing this, first, the first base coach became incensed, then Milton called time and, shall we say, explained to the umpire that he did not appreciate or sympathise with his feelings, and by the time all was said and done, Bradley was accidentally injured by his own manager's efforts to restrain him to such an extent that he was unable to play for the rest of the year.

(I must say at this point that conspiracy theorists among Padres fans believe that the baiting was deliberately directed against Bradley for the express purpose of getting him suspended and thus thwarting the Padres' post-season hopes, and that this was done, either for personal gain from gambling or for revenge against Sandy Alderson. Even if either of these theories could be proven true, it still doesn't really explain the baiting of non-Padres or players on teams who are not competitive.)

For the first time that I can ever remember, an umpire was suspended without pay and the player was not penalized by MLB at all, meaning that MLB determined that the umpire did indeed bait the player and provoke him to violence. Normally, MLB's penalization of umpire infractions, if indeed there is or was any such thing, was kept completely confidential. To me, the interesting question is: WHY are the umpires challenging or even baiting the players? What is the point of such actions? As it stands right now, the umpires still have absolute power and the players are still completely subject to their decisions, correct or not. The players know very well that it is a time-honored tradition that the teammates of any player who baits an ump will end up paying the price. So, again the question, WHY are the umpires suddenly challenging/baiting players?

It is a very good question that no one has asked and I'm not really sure why, as it seems like a self-defeating ploy that would give a small immediate satisfaction at the cost of a great deal of future trouble. However, if my memory is correct, it seems that the escalation in the baiting was coincident with the instigation of the policy by MLB of having umpires "warn" teams if they judge that any pitch was deliberately thrown at a hitter. I know that I have heard pitchers bitterly complain that many of the decisions are baseless and compromise their ability to pitch as well as they could and that some teams feel that an umpire was biased. However, this would hardly explain an umpire baiting a position player for no apparent reason and no obvious gain (and no, I haven't forgotten about the crooked NBA ref).

I would guess that the suspension of Mike Winters set a precedent that the umpires may come to regret as players may feel they now have a defense that wasn't previously available to them. MLB really needs to fully investigate both the extent and etiology of this problem before hostilities escalate and MLB tries to enforce new, foolish rules such as one that would ban all player/umpire conversations during games and lead to even more hostilities. Speaking strictly as a mother of young children, I would prefer to suggest to all parties that they try to remember to use good manners at all times, but unfortunately, I know better.

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The question that Astros fans are all asking is: Was the choice the right one, and will the Astros' fortunes change under new management?

Rise to glory

In 2005, Roy Oswalt, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, elite closer Brad Lidge plus Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg carried the Astros to the World Series.

Phil Garner, their manager, was hired a year earlier in July 2004 to replace Jimy Williams, who seemed to be incapable of spurring what was supposed to be a great team to more than a .500 record. Phil was wrongly seen as the catalyst who led the team back from oblivion to the playoffs in 2004. The fact is that the team continued its lackluster .500 play from the time that Phil assumed command on July 15 until Aug. 27, when the energetic, enthusiastic Brandon Backe joined the pitching staff and Roy Oswalt's fight with Michael Barrett of the Cubs woke a moribund team. The team responded by going 26-7 for the remainder of the season to grab the wild card on the last day of the season.

In 2005, despite being outmanaged in every inning by Ozzie Guillen, Garner was rewarded with a contract extension thanks to his title of "The Guy Who Took the Team to the World Series."

Tim Purpura, the outgoing general manager, was also given the keys just in time to benefit from the Astros' run to the World Series. He was promoted in Nov. 2004, when Gerry Hunsicker resigned, ostensibly because he disagreed with decisions to not retain Jeff Kent, make Craig Biggio's drive for 3000 hits a priority, and pursue Carlos Beltran. Purpura had been the director of player development under Hunsicker for the previous six years and had been touted by many as a future GM.

Purpura's tenure was characterized by inaction during the Astros' playoff run in 2005, which culminated in his predecessor's team winning the pennant. Purpura contributed no helpful trades or waiver acquisitions—only the unhelpful signing of Preston Wilson.

Fall from grace

Before 2006, instead of building on the Astros' World Series run, Purpura managed to add only Aubrey Huff while eschewing freely available talent. After a lackluster 2006 season, he refused to re-sign Andy Pettitte (and therefore Roger Clemens) and Russ Springer, instead dealing young talent for rentals of Jason Jennings.

To make things worse, in those three years, no decent young players were signed from Latin America, and drafts were simply terrible and completely unproductive, leaving the minor league system almost completely barren.

Purpura, who has refused to comment to the media since his firing, apparently didn't read the "three envelopes" joke before he was hired. You know the one, it goes like this: Upon assuming the job of general manager, the outgoing GM handed the new guy three envelopes, marked "1," "2," and "3". The old guy said to the new guy: each time you hit a serious bump, open an envelope. So the first time the media seriously criticized the new GM, he opened the first envelope. In it was a sheet of paper which read, "Blame your predecessor for making bad trades, depleting the farm and failing to foresee problems with free agents." So the GM did just this and for a while, the fans and media retreated.

However, this only held them off for a while, so the GM finally opened the second envelope. In it was a sheet of paper which read, "Blame the players for not playing the game the right way, injuries and the lack of quality free agents." So the GM did just this and for a while the fans and media were satisfied. However, the team continued to disappoint and calls for the GM's head became loud again. So he opened the third envelope. In it was a sheet of paper which read, "Prepare three envelopes."

The real McCoy

So Purpura and Garner are the reasons the team disintegrated after reaching the World Series, right?

Actually, the answer is really owner Drayton McLane. The buck, so to speak, stops at the very top. Of course, it is true that no one knows what goes on behind closed doors, as the old song goes, but at some point, Drayton McLane earned a reputation as a "hands on" owner. What does that mean? Well, I would guess that most people who read this site play fantasy baseball, and pretend to buy, sell and trade ballplayers, dictate lineups, evaluate performances of "their" guys. Imagine, now, that you have millions, in fact, billions to play with, that you can buy a real honest to goodness major league baseball team and that you dream of having a team filled with "good guys" who "play the right way" play for you. No Ty Cobbs, Barry Bondses or Milton Bradleys. Just good guys in white hats riding horses into the sunset (seriously, folks, the Houston Chronicle photographed some of the Astros "ranchers" wearing cowboy hats and perched on horses prior to the start of the '07 season. A ballplayer on a horse: a sure sign of a good guy.)

Drayton had ridden (so to speak) the enormous popularity of Roger Clemens to victory and fame in 2004. Gerry Hunsicker had apparently made an attempt to woo Roger some years before that, but had run afoul of his agents, the supposedly "difficult" Hendricks Brothers, and Roger had signed with Toronto. Drayton himself handled the wooing of the "retired" Roger Clemens after Gerry had signed Pettitte. The Houston Astros baseball club had never before experienced the intense media coverage brought by the presence of Clemens and I guess Drayton considered himself the true architect of greatness and excitement.

As a result, McLane apparently decided two things that fateful offseason:
1) That he himself had persuaded Roger Clemens to join the Astros for an absurdly small sum of money and he could persuade Carlos Beltran and his agent Scott Boras just as well
2) That he was determined that at least one player would wear the Houston Astros cap into the Hall of Fame and as Jeff Bagwell's arthritic shoulder was rapidly deteriorating and would most likely cut his career short, that that player would have to be Craig Biggio, who would require 3000 hits for entry. Since Biggio was virtually incapable of playing the outfield, this meant that slugger Jeff Kent would not be re-signed and Biggio would be returned to second base.

Gerry Hunsicker had already spent many years engaged in arguing with McLane over such things, but McLane had usually listened to reason in the end, but those days were gone and Gerry knew it, so he resigned. Purpura assumed the reins several days later.

Fallout

No one except McLane and Purpura know what, if any, decisions Purpura was actually allowed to make. It is generally believed that Purpura had very little freedom and that McLane refused to give him money to trade for or sign a better free agent outfielder than Wilson in 2006. McLane also gave him strict instructions to not re-sign Pettitte after the 2006 season for more than one year at $12 million, instructed him to sign Jon Garland, and when that fell through, Jennings. He was also instructed not to sign draftees for more than slot money.

On the other hand, as far as anyone knows, he was not given instructions about which minor leaguers or major leaguers could be traded, and his three trades were not merely unhelpful, but harmful. He may not have been given money to obtain other teams' discards (such as Hunsicker did with David Weathers and Dan Wheeler, to mention a few), but he did virtually nothing to improve the team during his three-year tenure, and was seen as difficult to work with by other GMs and agents. The final blow came when Purpura was unable to come to terms with almost 20% of the team's 2007 draftees, including the Nos. 3, 4, 8 and 13 picks. If it was true that Purpura received strict instructions not to exceed slot money, he needed to ensure that none of the picks would demand more than slot money, and if they did, to sweet talk them into accepting it. Apparently, he did neither.

In 2006, the team did not offer arbitration to any of its five free agents and as a result received no compensation picks. Also, Purpura did not wait until after the December deadline to sign both Carlos Lee and Woody Williams, both of whom wanted badly to play for the Astros, and therefore lost both first and second round draft picks. The threadbare farm was in no shape to withstand another poor draft and no talent was infused into the ranks with trades, either. This year, Purpura's major aquisitions were Jason Jennings, now hurt, Mark Loretta, a slap hitting, poor fielding utility player, Carlos Lee, a good hitting, terrible fielding free agent, and Ty Wigginton, a poor fielding utility player released by the Pirates and unwanted by the Devil Rays.

During stints with the Tigers and Brewers, Garner earned a reputation for greatly improving the team during his first year of managing, followed by a sharp decline in team performance. Garner's great strength as a manager lays in encouraging players and communicating with (most of) them. His weaknesses always exceeded that strength, and as soon as the team began to fail, the weaknesses emerged: His overriding obsession with platooning players who didn't require platooning, moving players to different positions frequently, changing lineups constantly and his insistence on lefty-righty matchups when not necessary.

By the time of his firing, only Carlos Lee knew when and where he would play in the field and in the lineup. The remainder of the players looked like particles in Brownian motion, both on the field and at the plate. The focus of the team this year, as dictated by McLane, was the continuous promotion of Biggio and his 3000 hits. Biggio, a supposed "good guy" and "team player," the supposed epitome of a "player who plays the right way," was allowed to dictate to the manager, with the blessing of McLane, both his playing time and his lineup position (leadoff), which he clearly no longer merited. Prima donnas don't always look like, hit like, or talk like Barry Lamar Bonds.

Cleaning house

To summarize, on Aug. 27, 2007, exactly three years from the Astros first improbable run for the pennant, both the major league team and the farm were in a dreadful state. Drayton McLane was absolutely right that new leadership was needed. The problem is that if he does not accept the glaringly obvious fact that he is really not qualified to act as the defacto GM any more than George Steinbrenner is/was, then inserting another puppet to replace Purpura will not accomplish anything whatsoever other than rapidly losing a great deal of his recently acquired bandwagon fan base.

The Astros greatest need is certainly a competent GM, a man who is accepted in the GM community, is knowledgeable about scouting and player development and can hire good people to teach minor leaguers. He will also need a man who is able to handle an owner whose biggest problem is that he thinks he knows best, when he only truly knows what is best for his fantasy team. As for a manager, I would at this point accept almost anyone, as long as he is not Buck Showalter, Dusty Baker, Don Baylor, Larry Bowa, Buddy Bell, Tony Muser or any pitching coach. It will most certainly take several years to return the Astros to respectability, even though McLane recoils in horror at the word "rebuilding." The new manager and GM can tell him it is, um, "revitalization."

Yeah, that's the ticket.

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