The Hardball Times -- Lucas Apostoleris

Eovaldi and his cutter move to Miami

Lucas Apostoleris — 2012-07-25T13:49:15+00:00

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Darvish’s curves

Lucas Apostoleris — 2012-07-22T13:51:15+00:00

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Contextualizing Liriano’s start against Oakland

Lucas Apostoleris — 2012-07-14T19:29:15+00:00

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Five questions: Tampa Bay Rays

Lucas Apostoleris — 2012-03-08T09:53:15+00:00

Coming off of their miraculous charge into the playoffs last year, the Tampa Bay Rays look to be key players in the AL East once again. Here are a few things to keep an eye on as we head into the regular season.

Who will be in the Rays’ rotation?

The Rays have been dealing with an issue that most teams would kill to have: There are too many young starters who are under contract. The veteran of the group, James Shields is not even 30 years old and signed an extension with the team last October. David Price and Jeremy Hellickson, who had fine 2011 campaigns, certainly aren’t going anywhere. That leaves four viable major league starters—Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, Alex Cobb and Matt Moore—for two spots in the rotation. Pitching coach Jim Hickey said in February that they are all going to be starters in camp and that the situation will “work itself out.”

Moore has the least experience but a world of upside (we’ll talk about this in a bit), and Cobb is coming off of injuries that derailed his season. Davis and Niemann have spent more time in the Rays’ rotation over the past few seasons, with varying levels of success: Davis has had a FIP of around 4.70 over his two full seasons, allowing a lot of flyball contact with unspectacular control. Niemann looks to be improving, cutting down on his walks this year for a K/BB of around 3. At the time of this writing, Niemann and Moore seem like the best fits in the starting rotation.

How good is Matt Moore?

Probably the most exciting pitching prospect in the majors right now is southpaw Matt Moore, who joined the Rays last September for some help down the stretch and wound up starting the first game of the ALDS against the Rangers. In addition to his seven-inning effort against the Rangers, Moore had a dominant start (his only regular season one) against the Yankees on Sept. 22 in which he struck out 11 batters in five innings.

His arsenal is that of a pure power pitcher. He possesses a four-seam fastball that can reach the upper 90s, a spike power-curveball in the mid-80s, and a change-up around 87 mph that he seemed comfortable using to righties in his big league appearances last year. He ripped through minor league hitters, posting a K/9 of nearly 13 in just under 500 career minor league innings (94 of his 99 games were starts). Expectations are sky-high based on Moore’s minor league track record, but it remains to be seen if he can translate his success to this point into helping the Rays’ rotation.

How good is Desmond Jennings?

It appears that for the first time in his career, Jennings will start the season on the big league roster. Jennings has been near the top of Baseball America’s top Rays prospects lists for the past few years and finally got a few months to make an impact in the majors after the 2011 All-Star break.

In his 63 games last year, he hit .259/.356/.449, showing an intriguing combination of plate discipline (10.8 percent walks per plate appearance), some power (10 home runs) and speed (20 stolen bases). His career minor league line: .294/.382/.443, with 188 stolen bases in 509 games. He might not be a superstar yet, but Jennings has a nice set of talents and looks to give the Rays more production out of left field (at least offensively) than they got from Sam Fuld last year.

Where's the production from the middle infielders?

The Tampa middle infield combo was a severe weak spot in 2011. Shortstop Reid Brignac, in particular, struggled mightily; in 264 plate appearances, hit just .193/.227/.221 with only five extra-base hits. Second baseman Sean Rodriguez had some more pop in his bat; his .303 weighted on-base average isn’t much to write home about, but isn't bad for a second baseman.

Really, having two middle infielders without a whole lot of offense isn’t the biggest problem to have, though certainly the Rays will want Brignac to improve, as his performance last year was among the league’s worst. At the end of January, the Rays picked up utility infielder Jeff Keppinger on a small contract, and he might take some playing time away from both Brignac and Rodriguez. Keppinger is an extreme contact-hitter with limited plate discipline or power, and he doesn’t project to make a huge impact offensively, but he could give the middle infield a little bit of a boost. The corner infielders have plenty of pop, with Evan Longoria patrolling third base and Carlos Pena returning to Tampa as the first baseman.

Will the new Farns continue to lead the bullpen?

The Rays are keeping Kyle Farnsworth around to be their closer for the second year in a row. This, in itself, is rare for the Rays: the last time they had the same closer two years in a row was 2004-2005, when Danys Baez took the ball in save situations. Joining Farnsworth as returning relievers are Joel Peralta, J.P. Howell and Jake McGee. Burke Badenhop has entered the fold and will probably pitch mostly to righties to get the most out of his side-arm, sinker/slider repertoire.

But let’s go back to Farnsworth. He’s a particularly interesting case, as he has changed his pitching style quite a bit over the past few seasons. Previously extremely homer-prone and reliant on his four-seam fastball, Farnsworth has been throwing more cutting and sinking fastballs since 2009, and it resulted in a career-high 50 percent groundball rate last year. He also brought his walk rate down to 5 percent, another career best. Farnsworth might not have the reputation due to his fiery personality and high-profile struggles with the Yankees, but he appears to have made tangible improvements to his pitching style as he has gotten older.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

With their late charge last year, the Rays ended up as one of the best teams in the major leagues. With the addition of Pena and the youngsters Jennings and Moore, Tampa might even be more talented this year than last.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Some thoughts on Moscoso

Lucas Apostoleris — 2012-01-17T06:22:15+00:00

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Who will be out of the Nats’ rotation?

Lucas Apostoleris — 2011-12-26T13:26:15+00:00

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Offseason decisions: Tampa Bay Rays

Lucas Apostoleris — 2011-11-28T09:43:15+00:00

The Tampa Bay Rays’ miracle run, which included a nine-game comeback over the final month of the season, came to an abrupt end as the Texas Rangers stopped them in their tracks in the first round of the playoffs. Looking forward to 2012, the Rays appear to have plenty of talent and a few key decisions to make. Let’s start with the starting rotation, which has been an area of depth for the team over the past couple of years.

Starting pitchers

For the fourth year in a row, the Rays got all of their starts from pitchers under the age of 30. (The last 30-year-old hurler to start for the Rays was Jae Weong Seo, who chipped in five innings on his 30th birthday, May 24, 2007.)

All but five of the Rays’ games in 2011 were started by one of James Shields, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, or Alex Cobb, and all of them actually were in a six-man rotation that manager Joe Madden decided to work with for a few weeks in July and August before injuries prematurely ended Cobb’s season. These six pitchers, all of whom were drafted and developed by the Rays, formed a solid starting staff last year.

With Shields’ $7.5 million contract picked up for 2012, all six pitchers are under contract for the upcoming season. There’s already a logjam of major league pitchers, and it’s even more complicated than that.

Waiting in the wings is lefty flamethrower Matt Moore, who had a major league cameo at the end of the 2011 season and stuck out a total of 17 batters in his two starts with Tampa. Moore, who is 22 years old, has been dominating at every level (FIPs under 3.00 every year since 2008) and probably could have a significant impact in the majors if given a spot.

As it stands right now, the Rays’ choice probably comes down to Niemann, Davis, Cobb, and Moore; Shields (now that his contract has been renewed), Price, and Hellickson look to be untouchable.

Relievers

An area of the Rays’ pitching staff that has significantly less stability is their bullpen. The tables below show the Tampa relievers (minimum 20 innings pitched) ranked by average leverage, dating back to 2008.

2008
Pitcher          LI
Troy Percival    1.79
Dan Wheeler      1.72
Grant Balfour    1.26
J.P. Howell      1.26

2009
Pitcher          LI
J.P. Howell      1.82
Dan Wheeler      1.15
Grant Balfour    1.12
Joe Nelson       1.00

2010
Pitcher          LI
Rafael Soriano   1.82
Chad Qualls      1.24
Grant Balfour    1.20
Joaquin Benoit   1.15

2011
Pitcher          LI
Kyle Farnsworth  1.48
Joel Peralta     1.31
J.P. Howell      1.19
Juan Cruz        0.80

The pennant-winning 2008 team saw plenty of turnover the following year, but the last two seasons in particular have shown that the Rays’ front office has a willingness to rebuild the bullpen. Farnsworth’s 2012 option was picked up, presumably making 2012 the first season since 2006 the Rays will start the year with the same nominal closer as the previous season. (Danys Baez saved 96 games for the Rays between 2004 and 2006.)

With this in mind, the Rays’ bullpen last year wasn’t great outside of Farnsworth and Peralta (3.73 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 4.26 xFIP), and only one of the two will certainly be back in 2012. The Rays have signed a lot of relievers over the past few years, and they probably will be signing more by the time the offseason is done.

Hitters

The Rays’ offense was middle-of-the-pack last year. Their .320 team wOBA was 13th in the majors; their team wRC+ was 103. Their season featured strong performances from Ben Zobrist and Evan Longoria, in particular. Despite having a “down year,” hitting .244, Longoria clubbed 31 home runs and contributed about six wins above replacement. They’re both under contract and will be back in 2012.

B.J. Upton, frequently the subject of trade rumors, had a productive season last year; he’ll be back in the Rays’ outfield in 2012 as well (unless he is traded, which is certainly a possibility).

At the other end of productivity, you have shortstop Reid Brignac, second baseman Sean Rodriguez, outfielder Sam Fuld and the catching tandem of Kelly Shoppach and John Jaso; this quintet of semi-regulars combined for just 4.7 fWAR over 504 total games played.

One player I mentioned who won’t be back is Shoppach, whose 2012 option was declined. This probably opens the door for catching prospect Robinson Chirinos, who got some exposure to the big leagues during the second half of the 2011 season.

Fuld, who started the season strong and soon faded, eventually gave way to prospect Desmond Jennings by August. Jennings, who impressed in his 63 games (.356 OBP, 20 steals), should make a big impact on the top of the order in 2012. Rodriguez and Brignac are young and still stand to be the team’s up-the-middle combo.

To summarize, let’s go over a few general points about what’s facing the Tampa Bay Rays in 2012:
{exp:list_maker}Too many starters. Admittedly, this is a problem that every team wants to have, but it is, nonetheless, something that will need to be worked out. The Rays need to find a way to get Moore pitching every five days somehow.
Who is in the bullpen? Farnsworth is, but there are a lot of question marks behind him. Howell returning to his pre-injury form might go a long way.
Offensive help from within. The Rays obviously will be looking for a stronger performance from Brignac at shortstop, whose .203 wOBA in 2011 was second-lowest in the majors (min. 250 plate appearances). But the key move will be having Jennings’s combination of patience, power, and speed in the lineup every day. {/exp:list_maker}
The future certainly looks bright for the Rays. The fact that they have so many young players under contract bodes well for their sustained success.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Kuroda’s four years

Lucas Apostoleris — 2011-11-03T09:06:15+00:00

Last Sunday, 24 hours after the Cardinals wrapped up the 2011 season with their 11th World Series title, the major league free agency season began. Though the headlines will be dominated by reports on superstars such as Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes, there are plenty of players who, despite a lower profile, will be able to give their new team a lift. One of these players is starter Hiroki Kuroda, who has spent four seasons in the major leagues as a Los Angeles Dodger after signing out of Japan after the 2007 season.

Kuroda has contributed 699 regular season innings in his major league career. Comparing him to the 62 other pitchers with at least 100 games started since 2008 gives us some context about his performance in some standard pitching categories.

Metric  Rank
ERA      16      
K%       37
BB%      7
GB%      12

These data are courtesy of Fangraphs/Baseball Info Solutions. The metrics from here on in this post will be from Gameday stringers.

He’s done a good job at keeping the ball on the ground and limiting walks. Despite being middle of the pack in strikeouts for his career, he’s been significantly above average in his past two seasons. His groundball rate has taken quite a hit recently, so we’ll be looking at that once we get into Kuroda’s “stuff” and how he approaches hitters.

Repertoire

Using PITCHf/x data, Kuroda’s pitch arsenal can be identified as consisting of, for the most part, five pitches.

His bread-and-butter pitch has been a two-seam fastball which he’ll throw at about 92 mph. At about the same velocity, he’ll also show hitters a four-seam fastball, which sometimes has some cutting action on it.

His primary offspeed pitch his a tight slider which he’ll throw throughout the 80s. A few miles per hour harder is his split-fingered fastball, which has a little bit of action away from lefties and breaks downward more than the slider.

Kuroda has been throwing a curveball in the high-70s more often over the past two years and spent time working on it during spring training. Please note that his curveball is very similar to his slower sliders, so there is plenty of subjectivity in splitting up the two pitches. Another report out of spring training had Kuroda toying with a cutter; I haven’t found any difference in his pitches comparing 2011 to previous seasons, so for the time being I will stick with these five labels for his pitches.

One last thing about the classification of Kuroda’s pitches: A handful of pitches (15 that I tagged over the 2008-2011 data set) look like more traditional change-ups than splitters. However, Kuroda is reported (from Dylan Hernandez's Los Angeles Times article in February) to have given up learning how to throw a change-up, so I will leave that to the side as well and exclude those pitches from this analysis.

Below is a spin deflection plot and a horizontal spin/velocity plot of Kuroda's five pitches. The movement values are from the raw data and have not been adjusted for camera variation from ballpark to ballpark.

Results

As mentioned earlier, Kuroda is good at preventing walks and fly balls, in large part due to the sinking fastball he relies on. Dating back to 2008, here are some full-season pitch metrics.

Year     #      Swing%    Whiff%     Ball%      Called%    GB%
2008     2656   49%       20%        36%        15%        49%
2009     1797   48%       20%        36%        16%        47%
2010     3026   48%       25%        36%        16%        51%
2011     3201   48%       23%        36%        16%        44%

And split up by pitch type in the tables below:

Sinker
Year    mph     #       LHB%    RHB%    Swing%  Whiff%  Ball%  Called% GB% 
2008    92.5    1019    46%     32%     53%     9%     29%     17%     58%   
2009    92.7    923     48%     53%     50%     12%    30%     20%     49%
2010    92.2    1147    35%     42%     51%     13%    30%     19%     60%
2011    91.9    1218    36%     41%     51%     13%    30%     21%     50%
All     92.3    4307    40%     42%     51%     12%    29%     19%     55%

Fastball
Year    mph     #       LHB%    RHB%    Swing%  Whiff%  Ball%  Called% GB% 
2008    92.2    576     18%     27%     50%     17%    38%     12%     36%   
2009    92.1    223     20%     5%      53%     18%    42%     4%      28%
2010    92.0    542     25%     12%     49%     23%    42%     10%     39%
2011    92.1    713     29%     16%     46%     23%    43%     11%     29%
All     92.1    2054    24%     16%     49%     21%    41%     10%     34%

Slider
Year    mph     #       LHB%    RHB%    Swing%  Whiff%  Ball%  Called% GB% 
2008    84.1    682     20%     34%     44%     39%    37%     19%     38%   
2009    84.3    451     17%     34%     42%     33%    39%     19%     41%
2010    84.7    831     14%     40%     47%     37%    35%     18%     39%
2011    84.2    630     8%      30%     49%     33%    36%     15%     38%
All     84.3    2594    14%     35%     46%     36%    37%     18%     39%

Splitter
Year    mph     #       LHB%    RHB%    Swing%  Whiff%  Ball%  Called% GB% 
2008    88.1    281     15%     7%      50%     31%    46%     4%      53%   
2009    88.5    158     13%     5%      54%     44%    42%     4%      58%
2010    87.1    310     17%     5%      51%     38%    42%     7%      58%
2011    86.9    474     20%     10%     51%     36%    35%     4%      53%
All     87.4    1223    17%     7%      51%     37%    44%     5%      55%

Curveball
Year    mph     #       LHB%    RHB%    Swing%  Whiff%  Ball%  Called% GB% 
2008    79.6    24      2%     <1%      33%     25%    42%     25%     33%   
2009    80.6    21      2%     <1%      5%      0%     52%     43%     100%
2010    80.3    148     9%      1%      22%     30%    45%     33%     36%
2011    79.6    145     7%      2%      28%     22%    33%     39%     29%
All     87.4    338     5%      1%      25%     25%    40%     36%     34%

You can use this post as your reference for these metrics.

First off, let’s address the groundball decrease alluded to at the beginning of this post. The sinker’s groundball rate has fluctuated in the 50-60 percent range over his career, and 2010 was one of the down years. Combine this with the fact that he threw a greater percentage of four-seamers (an extreme flyball pitch) in 2011 than he did in 2009 and 2010 and you get a different looking batted-ball distribution.

But at the same time, Kuroda is benefiting from the extra four-seamers he threw last year because it is a much better strikeout pitch than his two-seamer. His 21 percent whiff rate for the pitch is significantly above the league average (16-17 percent), and it’s been on the rise over the past two years. This is probably due mostly to its cutting action relative to the average four-seam fastball; in the 2011 THT Annual, Jeremy Greenhouse found that those kinds of fastballs typically have higher whiff rates than those with average movement. So while Kuroda has sacrificed some ground balls, he is picking up more strikeouts.

By the way, in case you want to see the change in Kuroda’s fastball distributions on a game-by-game basis, I’ve provided the chart below. Notice that for his first 10 or so starts in the major leagues, he relied heavily on his four-seamer. He used it about as much as his two-seamer in August and September of 2011, and has otherwise been a pretty generic sinkerballer.

The offspeed pitches: how they’re different

Kuroda’s slider and splitter are both good strikeout pitches, as they both have whiff-per-swing rates in the high 30s. However, the splitter generates a ton of ground balls while the slider does not. There are three primary reasons for this:

Pitch movement. As you could see in the spin deflection chart earlier in this post, Kuroda’s splitter drops significantly—about 16 inches on average—more than his slider does. John Walsh in 2007 and Josh Weinstock in 2011 have shown us that vertical movement plays a significant role in predicting groundball rate. (Their studies applied to fastballs, but the same principle should generally hold true for other pitch types).

Velocity. In addition to breaking more, Kuroda’s splitter is also three mph harder than his slider. Josh Weinstock’s piece also found that velocity correlates with groundball rate; this meshes well with Josh Smolow’s research from last December.

Pitch location. Kuroda really likes to keep his splitter low; since 2008, 63 percent of his splitters have been below the bottom of the strike zone. The slider, on the other hand, catches a lot more of the plate and has been located on average 10 inches higher in the strike zone than the splitter. The vertical location/groundball correlation is something that Weinstock also looked at in his IATMS piece, and his conclusions point to a strong relationship between the two factors. The graph below shows the difference in vertical location between Kuroda’s slider and splitter.

In conclusion

There’s a lot to like about Kuroda’s game. He throws strikes and has shown the ability to get both grounders and strikeouts, though the four-seam/two-seam combo prevents him from being extreme in either category. Pitch selection is partially to blame for his groundball decrease in 2011; another year of data would be nice in helping to identify what else is going on. He appears much more prone to hanging his slider than his splitter, but gets good results with both.

It's not all positives, though. The elephant in the room is that Kuroda is by no means young. He will be 37 in February, so I can’t imagine that any team would be willing to give him any kind of serious money for more than two years. The other thing we shouldn’t forget is that he’s pitched his whole major league career in the NL West, so a move east would probably entail some kind of decline in performance. Kuroda himself is apparently pushing to stay in Los Angeles, or perhaps return to Japan to finish his career. All in all, however, his well-rounded pitching approach will make him appealing as a middle-rotation guy for many teams this offseason if he chooses to pitch for another major league team.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Kinsler’s plate discipline

Lucas Apostoleris — 2011-10-21T05:02:15+00:00

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Postseason Rays: They did it!

Lucas Apostoleris — 2011-09-29T09:31:15+00:00

The Rays are here. They showed up a little late to the party, but boy, did they make an entrance. Overcoming what was a nine-game deficit in the wild card race at the end of August, Tampa took advantage of Boston’s swan dive and stole away the Red Sox' postseason berth in the most dramatic way possible.

The Rays are obviously generating some excitement; what does their postseason situation look like?

A formidable rotation

The key to the Rays is their starting pitching staff. James Shields and David Price have been doing it at the top all year long (5 fWAR seasons from both of them); Shields has contributed 249.1 innings, which leads the majors. Both have strikeout rates over eight per nine innings, which is good to have in a short series.

Behind Shields and Price, manager Joe Maddon could go with either Jeff Niemann or Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson seems like the more obvious choice given his 13 wins and sub-3 ERA, but you couldargue that Niemann’s actually been the better pitcher over the past three months. Hellickson’s success has been driven mainly by a very low average on balls in play—very difficult to sustain over extended periods of time. If you compare his and Niemann’s peripheral stats side-by-side, it looks a little bit different:

	K/9	BB/9	GB%	FIP	xFIP
Jeremy Hellickson	5.6	3.2	35%	4.44	4.72
Jeff Niemann	7.0	2.7	46%	4.13	3.73

Though Hellickson’s ERA is a full run lower, Niemann walks fewer, strikes out more, and gets more ground balls. Hellickson’s run prevention in 2011 gives him the better standing short-term, but the defense-independent numbers show that Niemann is probably the better bet.

The Rays also could turn to Wade Davis, whose ERA/FIP/xFIP stats are all hovering in the mid-high 4s. He’s not having a strong year, but he has looked better since his DL stint, which ended in mid-July (1.1 K/BB before, 2.2 after).

Note that since Price had to pitch the final game of the regular season, he won't be ready for a Game Two start.

Some questions in the bullpen

For most of the season, the Rays’ bullpen was anchored by surprise star Kyle Farnsworth, who’s reinvented himself by getting his walk rates to career lows and groundball rates to career highs. Some arm trouble sidelined him for a while in September, at which point setup man Joel Peralta filled in admirably. But other than those two pitchers, it hasn’t been great for the Rays’ bullpen. The stats in the table below are for the relievers who have pitched the most for the Rays this year.

	ERA	FIP	xFIP
Joel Peralta	2.97	3.40	3.88
Kyle Farnsworth	2.26	3.21	3.21
Juan Cruz	3.83	4.00	4.36
Brandon Gomes	3.09	3.94	4.69
J.P. Howell	6.16	5.41	4.35
Jake McGee	4.85	4.91	4.29

Control is an issue for the relief corps: All of the guys on the list aside from Peralta and Farnsworth have 2011 BB/9 rates above four. Do note, however, that this list doesn’t include recent call-up Matt Moore, who had the best strikeout rate as a starter in the Southern League last year.

Just enough offense?

With a team wRC+ of 101, the Rays are pretty much a league average offensive team. Evan Longoria, arguably their best player (and the hero on Wednesday night), had a down year for him but still contributed a wOBA of .358 with 31 home runs. Ben Zobrist, Matt Joyce and Casey Kotchman all have similar wOBAs from the middle of the order.

The top of the order has also gotten a shot in the arm with the midseason arrival of rookie Desmond Jennings. The 24-year-old hit .271/.368/.470 in 63 games with the big club, combining patience (11 percent walks) and power (.200 isolated slugging) with his good speed (19 steals). The strong showings are offset by unspectacular years from Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac (hitting .194/.228/.222), and the catching tandem of Kelly Shoppach and John Jaso. The team’s offense isn’t scary by any means, but it’s not a glaring weakness.

What now?

This is a good team, and having two legitimate aces at the front of the rotation is quite a luxury in a five-game series. Their bullpen and offense might not be top-flight, but anything can happen in a Division Series. The Rays’ run thus far has been beyond miraculous. Can they keep it going?

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.