The Hardball Times -- Mark Himmelstein

Trader’s corner: reviewing the hits, part one

Mark Himmelstein — 2012-06-27T09:04:15+00:00

After taking a look at the results of some of my poorer predictions last edition, let's have a bit more fun and take a look at some of the stronger ones. As hoped, there were far more good predictions—both on my part and Oliver's—than bad ones. So much so that the good vibes need to be broken up into two separate columns. For today, we'll look at the most obvious hits from Week Zero and Week Two.

Jason Heyward
Initial Recommendation: Buy Low
Date: March 27, 2012
.278-39-35-11-10

Although Heyward's injury troubles held him back last year, there was another large flaw in his game that has now been corrected. In his first two seasons, he was a pronounced groundball hitter. But so far this year he's hit more fly balls than balls on the ground. The result is the best isolated slugging percentage he's had since he was in Double-A in 2009 and positive production in all five roto categories.

Looking a bit deeper though, even within this year it seems Heyward has changed his approach, as recently discussed by Dave Cameron. In April, he produced much like he did in his rookie season—lots of patience and decent power, although he was hitting more balls in the air and running the basepaths more aggressively. In May, he looked as lost as he did last year, struggling to generate base hits but still showing good patience and decent power.

Then in June, Heyward suddenly went from being one of the most patient young hitters in the game to Mike Silver's hackstastic dream player. His walk rate fell all the way to 4.2 percent—easily the lowest single-month mark of his career—but his strikeout rate also dropped, his BABIP shot up, and he hit a bunch of homers. I'm not as convinced as Mike that hacking is right for every player, but this change in approach seems to be benefiting Heyward and his fantasy owners alike.

The most important takeaway of all this is that his raw talent is clearly intact, and Heyward is finding more and more ways to tap into it as he matures. Be that by being more aggressive at the dish or putting more balls in the air, he's looking very much like the stud everyone thought he was destined to become.

Updated recommendation: Hold or buy high. Without luck, don't expect Heyward's current paces to improve dramatically from where they are right now, so the buying opportunity is likely weaker than it was to start the year, but the positive changes do look legitimate.

Angel Pagan
Initial Recommendation: Buy Low
Date: March 27, 2012
.299-36-27-5-12

This was very much a mechanical observation by the Oliver projection system that the community was putting to much weight on Pagan's superficial struggles from 2011 and ignoring the strength of his 2009 and 2010 seasons. Pagan was drafted as a $1 or $2 flier this year when he projected much more like a $10 or $12 player.

Lo and behold, Pagan is playing like a $10 or $12 player. The BABIP pendulum has swung back, and his .336 BABIP almost perfectly mirrors his 2010 mark of .331. As a result, his overall paces almost perfectly mirror his final 2010 line of .290-80-69-11-37. The stolen base rate is a bit short, but at age 30 it was expected this might tail off, and Pagain still has been caught only twice. He should still have a chance at 30 swipes by year's end.

Updated recommendation: Hold, or even sell if someone is overrating his batting average or tendency for long hitting streaks from the first half. That's the only part of Pagan's game one might expect to dip slightly in the second half, but otherwise, he's doing exactly what should be expected of him moving forward.

Mark Teixeira
Initial Recommendation: Sell High
Date: March 27, 2012
.254-38-42-12-1

When we first checked in on Teixeira, the concern was that without his lofty power numbers, he might have a hard time maintaining the value spent to acquire him. His average home run distance and velocity had fallen in four consecutive seasons, as had his BABIP. Even with decent contact rates, it looked unlikely his batting average would rebound and likely that his power would drop.

So far, that's exactly what's happened. Teixeira continues to make plenty of contact, but his BABIP is once again quite low. And while 12 home runs is a respectable total, it's not on the gaudy pace it would need to be to justify his draft day price. His average home run distance is higher than it was in 2011 but lower than it was in any year previous and well below the league average, and there's no change from last year in the average speed of home run balls off his bat.

Tex is largely being kept afloat by runs and RBIs, which the potent Yankee lineup continue to support, but a low-average, 30-home run slugger is not the value an owner who selected him in the late second/early third round was hoping for.

Updated recommendation: Hold or sell low. There may be something to sell in Teixeira consider the "slow starter" narrative that's followed him through his career, but there are fewer signs than ever that he'll suddenly start hitting like crazy in the second half in 2012.

Howie Kendrick
Initial Recommendation: Sell High
Date: March 27, 2012
.269-26-27-4-4

Kendrick enjoyed a breakout fantasy season in 2011, hitting a career-best 18 home runs and stealing 14 bases while maintaining a more-than-respectable .285 batting average. The concern was that his strikeout rate shot up, but he still hit over 50 percent of batted balls on the ground. His home run-per-fly ball rate was nearly twice that of his career mark. This combination made the power gains seem unsustainable and raised new questions about his ability to maintain a strong batting average.

At the time, my feeling was the best-case scenario saw Kendrick's power and strikeouts both reverting back towards his career rates, and that he would turn back into a .290 hitter with potential in the low double digits in both homers and steals. Unfortunately for Kendrick and his owners, while his power has regressed, the strikeouts have stayed high, leaving him with little that even resembles a saving grace.

For the second straight year, Kendrick's strikeout rate is a touch over 20 percent, and with his career-worst rate of making contact on pitches in the zone, it doesn't smell like a fluke. And yet, his 8.7 percent home run-per-fly ball rate is right in line with his career mark. Even more troubling is that his groundball rate is all the way up near 60 percent—higher than ever before. The total package is a below-replacement level fantasy player for mixed-league purposes with little indication of imminent improvement.

Updated recommendation: Sell low if you can still get anything of value.

Ubaldo Jimenez
Initial Recommendation: Sell Low
Date: March 27, 2012
7-4.59-1.55-58

Jimenez got off to about as brutal a fantasy start as possible, and to make matters worse, he may have even gotten a bit lucky to be as good as he was. His xFIP of 5.24 and SIERA of 5.13 are both over half of a run higher than his ERA. As expected, the decline in his swinging-strike and first-pitch strike rates in 2011 proved a better indicator of his 2012 prospects than his raw strikeout and walk rates.

Despite all that, June has brought Jimenez and his owners a sliver of hope. You might not notice without tracking his recent box scores or looking at his splits, but he actually has seen his strikeouts, walks, and velocity all trend in the right direction as the weather has warmed up. It's lead to an xFIP of 3.60 for the month, and while that mark still isn't dominant, and his velocity is still sitting below where it was last year, any improvement is welcome at this point.

Updated recommendation: If your team is in the thick of things already, leave Jimenez alone, but if you're looking for a super cheap, desperation gamble for the second half of the season, there are worse situations to buy into. He won't come any cheaper than this, and while he won't be an ace, given the way he's pitched over the last month, there's at least a non-zero chance he can be a decent third-tier starter for the rest of the year.

Jay Bruce
Initial Recommendation: Buy High
Date: April 11, 2012
.252-40-48-16-4

Through 70 games this year, Bruce is almost exactly half way to his 157-game totals from 2011. There was never really a great explanation for why Bruce was going for less than $20 in this year's auctions. Perhaps owners overestimated the negative impact of a .250-.260 batting average, or underestimated the value of a 30-home run bat. Whatever the cause, Bruce's line from 2011 was quite a bit more valuable than the price most owners paid for him in 2012, and he's outpacing those numbers so far this year.

Even better, there's reason to think Bruce can keep up his improvements moving forward. His BABIP sits at just .267, which is likely in part a result of his career-low 29.8 percent groundball rate. If Bruce keeps hitting balls in the air at this pace, he should be able to eclipse his total of 32 home runs from last year. If not, he'll trade a couple homers for a handful of singles and doubles, bumping up his batting average a bit. The former option is preferable in a value vacuum, but in either case, he should be slightly better than he was a year ago.

Bruce is looking every bit to be the $25-$30 value Oliver expected going into the year.

Updated recommendation: Buy high if his owner still considers his batting average a major turnoff; otherwise hold, as Bruce's continued consistent level of production should make extracting value increasingly difficult.

Ian Kennedy
Initial Recommendation: Sell High
Date: April 11, 2012
5-4.42-1.35-83

This one is pretty simple—unlike last year, the win luck has dried up, and the fly balls are flying over the fences at a more reasonable pace. Last year, Kennedy's success was largely predicated on a 7.7 percent home run-per-fly ball rate. This year that rate is up to 9.8 percent, and paired with a groundball rate that's lower than ever, the long ball has really damaged Kennedy's value.

The good news is Kennedy's command is still elite—even better than last year, although he's lost a few strikeouts from last year's pace, as well. His .325 BABIP is also due to regress even more than it would with most pitchers. Although fly balls are damaging in terms of the long ball, they do yield lower BABIP than any of the other batted-ball types. In aggregate this is small consolation, but it does suggest Kennedy's BABIP should be closer to his career rate of .279.

More than anything, Kennedy should see his WHIP improve dramatically moving forward, but I wouldn't expect more than a mid-to-high 3.00s ERA and a K/9 between 7.50 and 8.25. While that's still a solid fantasy pitcher, it could be difficult to convince all but the most fickle owners to sell him cheaper than what that's worth considering the amount they spent to acquire him.

Updated recommendation: Like Lester, Kennedy is tricky. This is easily evidenced in the disparity between his xFIP of 4.02 and SIERA of 3.59. It's very unusual to see these two metrics so far apart on a particular pitcher. I typically favor the SIERA number in general, and in this case even more so since it deals better with atypical BABIP regressions.

At the very least, this shows just how volatile an asset Kennedy can be and how overrated his upside was heading into the year. Unless you're desperate for WHIP potential, I wouldn't trade more than $15 in value for him, but I also wouldn't want to sell him unless I could get more than that.

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Trader’s corner: reviewing the misses

Mark Himmelstein — 2012-06-13T09:30:15+00:00

We're now deep enough into the 2012 season that we can start looking at player performance and evaluate predictions from the beginning of the year. It's a good time to sit back and take stock of performances thus far—both those of the players on our rosters and of our own as fantasy managers.

Believe it or not, THT Fantasy experts aren't immune to mistakes. Some of the calls made in this space have not worked out as hoped. Any good gamer will tell you process trumps results, so even some of the misses can be misleading, but some were simply misses. What follows is a review of the recommendations I've made in this space that have failed to live up to my predictions.

I'll also dedicate a separate column to the predictions I made that were successful, and one to the predictions that were neither obvious successes or obvious failures.

Justin Upton
Initial recommendation: Buy High
Date: March 27, 2012
Before: N/A
After: .250-37-22-5-8

While Upton certainly hasn't been awful, he's been far from a first round value. Neither his power or batting average are what owners were hoping for when they paid first round value to acquire him.

The good news is this looks more likely to be noise than degradation of skill. His strikeouts are up a bit from last year, but still on pace with his career to date. He's not hitting too many balls on the ground, and nothing jumps out in his plate discipline profile that makes an obvious culprit for his struggles.

Upton has the look of a player well worth being patient with. His Oliver projection still calls for a .290-59-56-16-13 the rest of the way, which is qualifies as first round production. His end of season line is likely to look disappointing at this stage, but there's no great reason to doubt his production moving forward.

Updated recommendation: Buy Low

Matt Garza
Initial recommendation: Buy High
Date: April 11, 2012
Before: 0-3.00-1.00-5
After: 2-4.10-1.13-56

Garza has had a bit of a roller coaster season so far. He got off to a fine start, struggled a bit at the end of May, but has picked it up in two starts so far in June. He's provided a better-than-expected WHIP, a worse-than-expected ERA, and a quality strikeout rate. The real killer, though, has been his two lonely wins, largely thanks to awful offensive and bullpen support.

The reason for Garza's inflated ERA is a 15.3 percent home run per fly ball rate. His strikeout rate is still high, walk rate still solid, and he's getting more ground balls than ever, leading to a very respectable 3.53 xFIP and 3.43 SIERA

In the initial discussion about Garza, one of the points raised was the connection between his increased slider usage and his success in 2011. The idea was that if he maintained this pitch distribution heading into 2012, he should continue to find success. And indeed he has, throwing his slider nearly 25 percent of the time.

His fastball velocity is steady, and while his swinging strike rate is down a touch, it's still above average. He should be able to maintain the above average strikeout rate, and there's no reason to expect he won't see his ERA improve moving forward as well.

The biggest problem for Garza is that the Cubs have been such a disaster that it's impossible to project he'll start winning more games. He should provide solid ratios and a nice strikeout rate, but as far as wins go, Garza owners simply have to hope he gets traded (which, thankfully, looks like a very real possibility).

Updated recommendation: Buy Low, especially for ratio help, but don't expect many wins. If he does get traded, be ready to make a strong play for him.

Mat Latos
Initial recommendation: Buy Low
Date: April 11, 2012
Before: 0-7.71-1.93-4
After: 4-4.64-1.36-55

Unlike Upton and Garza, Latos is looking like a pretty major whiff so far. While he likely hasn't been as bad as he looks so far, he hasn't been very good either. His strikeouts are down, walks are up, and he's getting fewer ground balls than ever. That's a bad combination considering he's now in one of the game's most hitter friendly ballparks.

It's difficult to pinpoint exactly what's gone wrong for Latos. Early in the year, he'd significantly reduced the rate at which he was throwing his slider, instead throwing a harder, tighter, cutter. It seemed this might be at the root of his struggles, but he's been throwing his slider more recently, and the results have only slightly improved.

His fastball velocity is steady, and there's no major difference in his pitch distribution, but he's simply not generating swings and misses at the rate he's used to. As a result, it's hard to predict the strikeouts are suddenly going to return.

If there is a silver lining, it's that he's actually throwing first pitch strikes at a strong rate, but an improved walk rate would only help so much.

Oliver still expects him to improve to 7-3.96-1.27-116 over the rest of the year, but that's much more a back end starter than the mid rotation guy Latos was expected to be, and not at all the strong value I called him in April.

Updated recommendation: If you can get anything of value, sell low. Otherwise hold. He's not outright droppable in standard mixed leagues, but he's not someone worth targeting right now despite the big hit his value has taken.

C.J. Wilson
Initial recommendation: Sell High
Date: April 25, 2012
Before: 2-2.37-1.05-15
After: 5-2.40-1.10-58

Much to my chagrin, Wilson continues to outperform his peripheral rates, putting up ace like fantasy numbers despite less-than-ace like components.

At this point, I'm honestly befuddled. Wilson continues to generate strikeouts despite a swinging strike rate that's now well below average. His ERA and WHIP are strong not because he limits walks—in fact his walk rate is quite poor this year—but thanks to a .240 BABIP and 6.7 percent home run per fly ball rate.

Wilson is now in his third straight season of outperforming his xFIP. It may be time to accept that he's simply a unique entity on the baseball landscape. Still, I can't recommend him as a buy. A .240 BABIP is low even for him, and rostering a pitcher with a walk rate over 10 percent is playing with fire in fantasy. His ERA may not regress all the way to his 3.69 xFIP, but I'm still betting it's closer to 3.50 than 2.50 for the rest of the year.

Updated recommendation: If someone is willing to pay for him as a Top 10 or 15 pitcher, I stand by the sell. Otherwise, hold.

Matt Wieters
Initial recommendation: Buy High
Date: May 9, 2012
Before: .299-16-18-7-0
After: .210-11-9-2-0

Wieters was one of my favorite preseason value picks. So, of course, it figures that immediately after I recommended him he went into the tank for a month.

Wieters did almost nothing for three weeks in May, but he's showing signs of life again in June, going 14 for 36 so far (.389) with a homer.

In total, Wieters' numbers now look much like they did a year ago—good power with a mediocre batting average. He still looks like a Top 10 catcher, but not quite the major breakout candidate he appeared to be after the first six weeks of the year.

In part, the problem with this recommendation was timing. It would look much more palatable had it been made a week or two earlier or later. The increased power still looks to be very much for real, and a .260 batting average and 25 home runs from a catcher is certainly nothing to sneeze at.

Updated recommendation: Buy—you should be able to get away with paying less than you would have had to a few weeks ago.

Bryan LaHair
Initial recommendation: Buy High
Date: May 9, 2012
Before: .388-14-17-8-0
After: .247-11-8-4-1

After an absurdly strong start to the year, LaHair was bound to come back down to earth a bit. The buy high recommendation was never meant to suggest he'd hit .388 all year, but that the power was real and that he shouldn't become a black hole in the other categories.

Well, that's essentially what's happened since May 9. LaHair still hit four home runs in less than 100 plate appearances, but his batting average declined. His BABIP fell to .304 over that stretch while his strikeout rate actually improved slightly.

Oliver actually projects a .329 BABIP for LaHair moving forward and roughly a .280 batting average for the rest of the year. So while we can't expect him to be as good as he was over the first six weeks of the year, there is reason to expect he'll be better than he's been over the last month or so.

The most significant negative development for LaHair since we last checked in on him is that he's gone back to the bench against most left handed pitchers. This does hurt his projection in terms of volume in a way Oliver can't quite correct for, but he still should be plenty valuable going forward just playing against righties.

Updated recommendation: Still buy high.

Adam Jones
Initial recommendation: Sell High
Date: May 9, 2012
Before: .297-23-17-8-5
After: .311-19-20-9-4

Somehow, it seems the more ground balls Jones hits, the more home runs he hits as well.

The crux of my concern with Jones was that he's historically been a very heavy ground ball hitter, and nothing in that regard has changed. In fact, his ground ball rate has actually increased quite a bit since early May. But despite that, he's more than doubled his home run total since then.

The last hitter to have a ground ball rate of at least 47 percent and hit at least 30 home runs was Shawn Green back in 2002 (Ellis Burks actually did it that year as well).

Jones's rate currently sits at 50.5 percent. It's very unusual for a player to hit so many balls on the ground and so many balls over the fence in the same year. At this point, Jones seems likely to join crack the 30 home run barrier despite the high ground ball rate, but that doesn't mean you can't still get value for him.

Updated recommendation: Sell high, but be deliberate. Even though it's unlikely he maintains the power production, and the ground ball rate is a red flag, it would take a massive slump to damage the community's perception of Jones at the moment. Try and get a Top 20 or 25 player, and if you can't, there's little harm in holding him as you approach your league's trade deadline.

Observations

-Out of 32 players covered through Week Six, just seven have yielded poor results so far. I'll take it.

-It's probably no coincidence that three of the seven players were from Week Six. We expect to see more extreme results in small sample sizes, and given more time, these results should stabilize further. I expect at least one of the predictions on Wieters, LaHair, or Jones to look considerably better in another month or two.

-Oddly, six of the seven misses were on either "Buy High" or "Sell High" players. Do I have an issue with evaluating strong performance as opposed to weak performance? These results are far from conclusive, but perhaps this is something worth watching moving forward.

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Trader’s corner: reader’s choice results

Mark Himmelstein — 2012-06-06T11:59:15+00:00

Welcome to the first Reader's Choice edition of Trader's Corner. In our last installment I asked you, the THT Fantasy faithful, to submit requests for which players you wanted to see covered. The response was overwhelming, with a ton of great suggestions. I ultimately settled on 10 players, based partly on a first-come, first-serve basis and partly on volume—players that more than one of you wanted to see.

Because of the positive response, this will certainly be an exercise I will look to repeat in the future. Also bear in mind that I passed over any player I've already covered, since those players will all be re-examined sooner than later. So if a player you were hoping to see doesn't show up today, keep your eyes peeled, as there's every chance I'll cover him soon.

You may notice a few formatting changes this week, but as always, included in each discussion will be the player's Oliver projection for the rest of the year (in the format AVG-R-RBI-HR-SB for hitters and W/SV-ERA-WHIP-K for pitchers) along with projected dollar values from the THT Forecasts custom price guides for both the standard Yahoo! and ESPN Formats.

So, without further ado, here are the results for the first ever Reader's Choice edition of Trader's Corner.

James McDonald - requested by Joel, Scott, Tyler, and Corey
So far: 5-2.14-0.95-71
Oliver RoS: 6-4.23-1.38-104
Oliver Yahoo! Value: N/A
Oliver ESPN Value: N/A

What to like: Undrafted in the vast majority of standard formats, McDonald has finally lived up to the post-hype hype in 2012. He's been one of fantasy's very best pitchers, and it hasn't entirely been a fluke.

Thus far, McDonald is pitching to a very strong 3.28 xFIP and 3.11 SIERA. The primary cause of this newfound success has been a brand-new slider he's throwing around 20 percent of the time. The strikeouts are up, walks are down, and the only thing that's held him back from even more value has been a lack of run support.

What not to like: While the results so far have been more skill than luck, the latter hasn't been absent, as his BABIP sits at a measly .254 and home run-per-fly ball rate at just 4.3 percent. Both of those numbers will regress. This is captured in the still strong xFIP and SIERA, but that doesn't mean the skill change should be completely trusted yet, either.

While McDonald's 9.8 percent swinging-strike rate is a career best, his first-pitch strike rate is a career worst, suggesting it's more likely the extra strikeouts are real than the reduced walks.

Neither the league nor McDonald's arm has had time to adjust to the new slider-heavy approach, leaving quite a few more unknowns than we normally expect with a pitcher performing so well in the true outcomes. Nearly everything McDonald has done so far this year is encouraging, but it's important to remember that the sample size we're working with here is still small and in stark contrast to McDonald's career arc thus far.

Conclusion: Conditional You could make a strong argument for handling McDonald in a number of different ways depending on the situation.

He makes an interesting buy-high gamble for a team struggling in strikeouts and ERA. There is blow-up potential, but the deeper we get into the year, the more difficult it is to make up ground without taking on some added risk.

On the other hand, for a team that finds itself near the top of the pack in strikeouts and ERA, selling him for a more stable commodity is advisable. His value is high enough right now that selling will mitigate the risks while bringing in a valuable enough piece to offset the potential reward.

In less clear situations, play it safe and lean towards the sell, but make sure you get decent value.

Jimmy Rollins - requested by Jules
So far: .237-26-13-2-10
Oliver RoS: .257-50-42-9-17
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $4
Oliver ESPN Value: $8

What to like: On the surface, not much. The only thing Rollins has done so far in line with expectation has been steal bases. There are some glimmers of hope, though. Despite an inflated strikeout rate, Rollins isn't swinging and missing any more than usual, and rate of contact on pitches in the strike zone—a strong indicator of expected strikeout rate—is actually the eighth-best mark among qualified hitters and a career best.

The strikeouts are going to fall, and with them, the average should increase. He's also only been caught stealing once, so his ability on the basepaths remains undiminished.

What not to like: Seemingly almost everything so far. Most troubling is the lack of power and the sky-high 22.1 infield fly ball rate.

It's obviously impossible for balls that do not leave the infield to clear the outfield fence, so this trend is tied directly to Rollins' career-worst 2.9 percent home run-per-fly ball rate. It's is also a factor in Rollins' .274 BABIP, though it's also worth noting Rollins hasn't had a BABIP over .275 since 2008.

Conclusion: Buy low, but don't pay too much. Although Rollins is on the downside of his career, shortstop is quite thin this year, and before long Jimmy should go from looking like a replacement-level option to one at least a bit better. His power and average should increase as his infield fly ball and strikeout rates regress, and he's still stealing bases and doing so efficiently.

Also worth mentioning, commentor jt had asked if there were any traditionally strong second-half performers worth targeting. While I tend to avoid reading too much into first- and second-half split trends, check out Rollins career wRC+ by month:

April: 93
May: 85
June: 86
July: 111
Aug: 104
Sept: 121

The visual difference between the double- and triple-digit numbers probably overstates the magnitude of the trend here, but it does seem Rollins has a deep history of improving his performance in the second half. Don't expect him to suddenly become a $10-15 player, but if an owner is about ready to give up on him, he could be a nice acquisition.

Colby Lewis - requested by Peter
So far: 4-3.50-1.13-64
Oliver RoS: 8-3.93-1.19-122
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $7
Oliver ESPN Value: $9

What to like: Stellar command an solid strikeout rate. Lewis's 3.4 percent walk rate is tied for second-best in the major leagues. It's supported by a 68.4 first-pitch strike percentage, sixth best in the majors. His strikeout rate is solid at 21.6 percent, and he should get quality offensive support from the beastly Texas Rangers lineup.

What not to like: Despite those excellent strikeout and walk numbers, Lewis has a seemingly unfathomable 4.38 FIP. The reason is the 14 home runs he's already given up, second most in the majors.

Lewis's 3.89 xFIP tells us we can expect that his home run rate to drop a bit, but even that mark is higher than his ERA. The problem is a 34.1 percent groundball rate, an absolutely killer mark for a pitcher who plays half his games in Arlington.

Conclusion: Buy if you need WHIP, sell if you don't. Lewis is one of the most unusual players to discuss in a trade context. There's nothing in his profile that suggests a dramatic change is coming, but his profile is highly atypical and not especially well fit to his environment. He'll provide a positive WHIP, but his ERA will be no better than average moving forward and could even be worse.

If there's a psuedo-sabermetric purist in your league just looking at the strikeout and walk rates but ignoring the groundball and home run issues, go ahead and sell Lewis off. From a pure value standpoint, he's no more than a middling starter so long as he remains in Texas.

Then again, if you need WHIP help and don't have to give up too much, then he's actually a worthy target.

One more note: if for some strange reason Lewis gets traded—admittedly unlikely—he could go from a sub-$10 player to a $20 player in the Matt Cain mold literally overnight. Perhaps more than any other player in the game, his projection is affected by his home environment.

Shin-Soo Choo - requested by Peter and Bob
So far: .270-29-17-3-8
Oliver RoS: .284-59-51-12-14
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $24
Oliver ESPN Value: $22

What to like: After an injury-plagued 2011 season, most of Choo's secondary rates are back to normal. The strikeout rate, walk rate, BABIP, steal attempts, and success rate are all right within range of Choo's career numbers.

Though Choo has always struck out a bit more than you'd like, he makes up for it with a consistently high BABIP, and this year is no different. The batted-ball profile remains nicely neutral in terms of ground balls and fly balls, and he's hitting more line drives than ever thus far.

What not to like: Despite all that, Choo's once-solid power game seems to be falling off pace. Though always more of a balance play than a true slugger, Choo set career lows in home run-per-fly ball rate (10 percent) and isolated slugging (.131) last year, and neither has improved so far this year.

To an extent, this is also the culprit behind his low batting average. If you were to give him three extra homers, putting him more on pace with his career home run rate, his average would also jump to .287.

Conclusion: Buy Low. Though my personal feelings on Choo are a bit more tempered, Oliver still expects the power to bounce back and loves his sneaky balance potential. I can't find a concrete reason to disagree.

At the very least, Choo certainly isn't a good sell candidate, even from the most pessimistic perspective. There's nothing beneath the surface suggesting his value is likely to get lower than it is right now, so it's just a question of whether the power bounces back.

For an owner off to a strong start this year who may be looking to turn a risky asset into something a bit safer while potentially extracting some value, Choo makes a nice target. The worst-case scenario is that he's a decent fifth outfielder, and the best case is he helps you a bit in every category.

For someone looking to make up ground fast, there are better boom or bust targets, but if you're just looking to solidify a strong roster, Choo could well be a wise acquisition.

Madison Bumgarner - requested by Scott (the other one)
So far: 6-3.03-1.09-58
Oliver RoS: 9-3.56-1.22-110
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $9
Oliver ESPN Value: $10

What to like: Much like Colby Lewis, Bumgarner has been a strike-throwing machine, walking just 4.7 percent of batters faced so far. However, unlike Lewis, he has an excellent 52 percent groundball rate and pitches in one of baseball's best parks for home run suppression.

His ERA does feature a touch of good fortune, as his BABIP is only .273, but even his xFIP and SIERA are still very solid, at 3.42 and 3.33, respectively.

What not to like: After striking out 22.6 percent of batters last year, that mark has fallen off a bit and is down below 20 percent. While this is perfectly acceptable considering his walk rate, it's not entirely what owners hoped they were buying.

Decreased fastball velocity—down nearly a full mile per hour from last year—looks like the likely reason for Bumgarner's dip in whiffs.

Conclusion: Buy, though it's tough to tell if it would be high or low. His career simply isn't deep enough yet to assume the strikeouts will come, but they won't completely disappear, either, and Bumgarner doesn't need them to be a quality fantasy pitcher if you can make up a bit of ground in the category elsewhere.

While the drop in velocity and strikeouts is a bit of a concern, Bumgarner has a reputation as a guy whose velocity tends to fluctuate, and its been trending up a bit in his last few starts. It still isn't where it was at it's peak in 2011, but the strikeouts seem to be following, as well.

After punching out no more than six over his first eight starts, Bumgarner has struck out at least seven in each of his last three. That includes a pair double-digit whiff performances and 28 total strikeouts over his last 21.2 innings.

It's also worth noting that Bumgarner's strikeout rate was lower than it is right now through most May of 2011 before taking off in June though, curiously, his velocity actually tailed off in the second half of the season.

At worst, Bumgarner will be a 3.40-3.50 ERA pitcher for the balance of the season with a very strong WHIP and middling strikeout rate, while the upside is ace-like in all four categories if the strikeouts return in force. He's a perfect low-risk, high-reward buyer's opportunity.

Billy Butler - requested by B and Joel (another Joel)
So far: .294-22-35-11-0
Oliver RoS: .302-51-57-12-0
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $12
Oliver ESPN Value: $15

What to like: Butler's had a career couple of months so far and finally seems to be making good on the power potential he's long been thought to have. Going the arbitrary endpoints route, his 11 home runs so far mark the most he's ever had in consecutive months in his career. His strikeout rate remains solid, his BABIP is nominal, and there's every chance he ends the year having bested his 2009 campaign, his top fantasy season to date.

What not to like: Though his 21.2 percent home run-per-fly ball mark may indicate improved power, regression is likely. That number is more than double his career rate and nearly 10 percent higher than anything he's done over a full season. His groundball rate is still sky high for a slugger at 48.5 percent. Butler is much more likely to merely double his home run production thus far than triple it over the rest of the year.

Conclusion: Sell High or Hold If you can convince an owner that the power surge is for real and that Butler is a suddenly a 30-home run threat, go ahead and sell. Otherwise, feel free to hold. Overpaying to acquire him now would be a mistake, but he should still have enough value moving forward that there's no rush to sell him at cost.

Jose Altuve - requested by Hollywood Charles
So far: .316-33-18-3-9
Oliver RoS: .291-48-38-5-13
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $3
Oliver ESPN Value: $8

What to like: Altuve does a little bit of everything, but it's batting average and speed that are his primary calling cards. While we can't expect him to maintain a .352 BABIP, his 12.4 percent strikeout rate lines up well with his minor league career. His ridiculous 95.7 percent contact rate on pitches in the strike zone and paltry 3.4 percent swinging strike rate—both of which are among the top 10 in the game—indicate that mark could be even lower, and he does have a high BABIP history from his time on the farm.

His raw speed is just short of elite, but he's a fairly aggressive baserunner and has been successful so far this year, getting caught just twice in his 11 attempts. And though he's far from a slugger, he's not completely punchless. Low double-digit home runs are not out of the question, but that's his ceiling.

What not to like Not a whole lot. The biggest knock on Altuve has always been his diminutive stature. At 5-foot-7 (maybe), he doesn't have what you'd call a prototypical baseball body, and scouts have long assumed he wouldn't have the physicality to survive the highest level.

Conclusion: Buy high. Statistically speaking, there's little reason to doubt Altuve. Oliver's projection is for just 388 plate appearances, but entrenched at the top of a surprisingly respectable Astros lineup, he could easily accumulate more volume than that.

I haven't seen a whole lot of Altuve, but from what I have seen, he passes the eye test. He's solidly built for such a small guy, and like fellow short, scout-defying second baseman Dustin Pedroia, he makes plenty of contact despite a very aggressive swing.

It's tough to project a true .300 batting average for any player with less than a full season in the majors, but Altuve could well stay there all year. At the very least, the average should be a plus, and as long as he's playing every day, 10 home runs, 30 steals, and a big run total are very plausible over a full season.

Derek Jeter - requested by J.C. and JTin
So far: .336-30-20-6-5
Oliver RoS: .300-47-39-6-9
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $2
Oliver ESPN Value: $6

What to like: The future Hall of Famer is having his best season since 2009, providing positive value in five categories so far out of a very shallow position. The nearly-38-year-old shortstop amazingly is posting the best strikeout rate of his career while also providing solid power and speed. What more can you ask for?

What not to like: Even with the solid power production so far, Jeter's groundball rate is over 60 percent for the third consecutive season. Despite Oliver's expectations, it will be difficult for him to even double down on his six home runs.

His plate discipline profile hasn't changed much either, so while we can expect a solid strikeout rate moving forward, it should increase a bit and the average should drop.

Conclusion: Sell high, but not too aggressively. If someone in your league is willing to believe that Jeter's capable of making an MVP run in the twilight of his career, or even that he can be better than he's been the last few years at this stage, go ahead and move him. He's still a solid, balanced player, but aside from batting average, itis foolish to expect he'll continue doing anything else exceptionally well. Jeter could provide a bit of value in speed, but 20 steals is unlikely, and the power is mostly a mirage.

Brandon Beachy - requested by Scott, Arthur, Fox, and Kyle
So far: 5-1.87-0.95-57
Oliver RoS: 8-3.64-1.22-128
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $10
Oliver ESPN Value: $11

What to like: Beachy currently leads the majors in ERA and is fifth in WHIP. You can't ask for much more than than, which is good, because there isn't much more.

What not to like: While the surface rates are excellent, where did all of last year's strikeouts go? In 2011, Beachy struck out 28.7 percent of the batters he faced, one of the best rates in the major leagues. This year, that number has dropped all the way to 20.1 percent. This is also backed by a sharp decline in swinging strikes, so it's not entirely a fluke.

Beachy's walk rate is roughly league average, and he also tends to give up a lot of fly balls. His groundball rate is just 42 percent, actually a stark increase from last year but still a bit below average.

With the whiffs gone and no appreciable gains elsewhere, virtually all of Beachy's success so far this year can be attributed to an unsustainable .207 BABIP.

Conclusion: Sell high. While simple regression based on his minor league track record and success last year suggests he should start striking more batters out, the decreased whiff rate is a serious concern. His xFIP is an ugly 4.03, and his SIERA is not much better at 3.98, indicating the magnitude of the correction that's in order unless he starts missing more bats.

The situation with Beachy's strikeouts is somewhat similar to Bumgarner's, except Bumgarner has elite command and generates a healthy does of ground balls. Since Beachy does neither of those things, rather than a high-floor, high-ceiling situation, we have a lower-floor, lower-ceiling one.

When you also consider how strong Beachy's surface rates are, there's plenty of incentive to sell. The best-case scenario is he finds his strikeouts and goes back to being the above-average, but unspectacular, starter he was last year for the season's balance. If the strikeouts don't eventually show up, his value could approach negligible as his ERA and WHIP shoot up while his BABIP corrects itself.

Mike Trout - requested by mikes and Tom
So far: .338-24-22-5-9
Oliver RoS: .282-46-36-7-14
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $2
Oliver ESPN Value: $7

What to like: Plenty. The recently graduated über-prospect brings every tool imaginable to the table, and after struggling in his debut last year, appears to be putting it all together in 2012.

Speed is Trout's best asset—he's a true burner who easily could blow Oliver's projection out of the water if given the opportunity. His power is still developing, but what pop he does have he takes advantage of by keeping his batted-ball profile almost perfectly neutral.

What not to like: This is more nitpicking than anything, but you'd like to see a few more walks and fewer strikeouts. His 7.9 percent walk rate is a touch below average, and his 19.7 percent strikeout rate a bit above average. Neither mark is a killer.

Conclusion: Buy high unless the price is absurd. Even the strikeouts and walks offer more upside than downside at this point. His swinging-strike rate and contact rate on pitches in the zone are both well above average, at 5.3 percent and 91.3 percent, respectively.

The power Trout has provided so far is a bit of a surprise, but he's right at the age where you expect power to blossom.

Unless Trout's owner is absolutely tied to the new-prospect shine, there may actually be a decent buying opportunity here. There's risk, to be sure—he is only 20 years old after all. An all-out pursuit is more advisable for owners on the wrong side of the bubble looking to make take a gamble, but even for a team looking to reduce risk, it couldn't hurt to check the asking price on the young star. He's looking that good.

THT Forecasts

If you're curious about the projections and dollar values provided, make sure to check out the THT Forecasts section. For $14.95, you get full access to the Oliver projections for thousands of major and minor leaguers, including six-year Major League Equivalency forecasts on every player card. And best of all for us fantasy junkies, you get full access to THT's Custom Fantasy Price Guides, which allows you to create your own price guide based on your league settings and play-style preferences using the Oliver projections, with projections and dollar values updated throughout the season.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Trader’s corner: reader’s choice edition

Mark Himmelstein — 2012-05-24T09:07:15+00:00

We're four editions deep into Trader's Corner this year, and I wanted to shake things up a bit this week. I'm opening it up to you, the faithful THT Fantasy readership.

Are there any players out there who have you befuddled? Anyone whose performance you're having a hard time wrapping your head around? Curious if you should sell one of your players or try to buy someone from an opponents' roster? Well, this is your chance to an expert's opinion on the players you want to see covered.

Go ahead and drop some names in the comments section of this post, and some time in the next week or so, I'll cover up to eight of your suggestions. I'll give you my take along with the Oliver projections, and explain whether the players' performances look sustainable or not and why.

Note: This will NOT be a space to discuss particular trade offers, but a medium to take a deeper look at specific players you may be curious about. If you do have a more specific question, I would recommend emailing the Roster Doctor. He's a wizard with that sort of thing. I'm also happy to have more specific discussions in the comments sections, but for this post, let's try to limit it to player suggestions.

The only other criterion is that players should be owned in at least 50 percent of fantasy leagues. This space is reserved for trade candidates, not waiver wire pickups.

As an aside, I've begun work on a review of the first four editions of Trader's Corner. You can find the previous installments here: Week Zero, Week Two, Week Four, Week Six. I plan on looking at each player discussed and how he's performed since appearing in this space.

Otherwise, go ahead and start dropping suggestions in the comments. After enough players appear, I'll discuss your suggestions in a special Reader's Choice edition of Trader's Corner. If all goes well, I'll occasionally interrupt the regular schedule to opening things up to you, the readers, once again.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Trader’s corner: week six

Mark Himmelstein — 2012-05-09T09:04:15+00:00

Welcome to Trader's Corner, your one-stop shop for bargains and busts. I've partnered with our good friend Oliver to look at the recent performances of a few players and why they could present a major profit opportunity for you. This won't just be your typical buy high/sell low column, though. As much opportunity as those situations may present, we'll also try to identify the hot streaks that figure to last and the cold spells that could spell doom.

Every two weeks, I'll look at a pair of players in each of four categories: Buy High, Buy Low, Sell High, and Sell Low. The first player will be my own selection, and the second is based strictly on the Oliver projections.

I'll keep a tally of all my recommendations, the date I made them, and the players' performances from that point forward. From time to time, I'll share the results in an attempt to evaluate how I'm faring and if there are trends to be found.

Each entry will include the player's numbers so far along with their rest-of-season Oliver projection in the standard rotisserie categories (AVG-R-RBI-HR-SB for hitters, and W/SV-ERA-WHIP-K for pitchers). Also provided will be the accompanying projected dollar values according to THT Forecasts' Custom Price Guide for both the standard Yahoo! and ESPN formats.

Dollar values are based on a $260 draft budget with $2 allocated to each bench spot and a 70/30 hitter/pitcher split.

Buy High

Buying high is one of the most difficult and frequently overlooked strategies at a fantasy manager's disposal. We all love to discuss player trends that look promising in the offseason, but somehow, once the season begins, every sample size becomes too small and every unexpected performance a matter of mere luck. The consensus bias shifts from heavily weighting recent performance and "upside" to nigh unshakable temperance and prudence. For the savvy, risk-seeking owner, this can present a great deal of profit opportunity.

Today we'll check in on the preseason man-crushes of a couple THT Fantasy authors who paying big time dividends.

My Pick: Matt Wieters
So Far: .299-16-18-7-0
Oliver RoS: .266-49-57-14-0
Oliver Yahoo Value: $4
Oliver ESPN Value: $3

Wieters is a former once-in-a-generation prospect who has thus far failed to live up to the hype, at least offensively. Still just 25, though, I spent much of the offseason ranting about how he still has time yet to do so and the promising signs from the second half of last year.

Wieters' power numbers from 2011 were solid with 22 home runs and a .188 ISO. Even more, much of that damage was done in the season's final two months, when he hit 12 of those bombs. In fact, since last August, Wieters has a whopping .394 wOBA, .283 ISO, and a rotisserie line of .284-46-49-19-0 over just 301 plate appearances.

He's done all of that with strong strikeout and walk rates, neutral groundball and flyball tendencies, and just a .280 BABIP against a career .301 mark. The sample size isn't huge, but these gains are looking nicely sustainable. His home run-per-fly ball rate may dip, but even with that, 15-20 more homers is well within reason.

So now the question is why Oliver isn't sold on Wieters' gains. There are three areas where the projection isn't quite buying where I am.

The first is in the power stroke. Oliver sees Wieters hitting just 14 more homers over 433 plate appearances.

The research on which the Oliver projections are based suggests that a majority of hitters reach their peak in power during their age 23-25 season before very slowly declining through the remainder of their 20s. Since Wieters is 25 now, it looks at what level of power he's hit for thus far in his career and essentially translates that into a projection.

With most players, looking at macroscopic research rather than a 300-plate appearance trend will tend to yield better results, but Wieters is a case where I'm willing to go against the grain.

For one, he's a big-bodied catcher who has been trained into a defense-first approach to the game at the. Because of his size, it was unclear if he'd be able to handle the rigors of catching major league games on a daily basis, let alone do so well.

So far, he's not only exceeded these expectations, he's smashed them. He's gone from a slightly above-average defensive catcher in his rookie year to one of the very best in the game while playing in 130 and 139 games the last two seasons.

Then consider his minor league pedigree. Wieters was famously tabbed on of the best hitters in all of baseball by Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projection system before ever playing a game in the majors. He had absolutely annihilated minor league baseball to the tune of a .343/.438/.576 batting line over 693 plate appearances. He hit 32 home runs over that span while drawing nearly as many walks (102) as strikeouts (106).

Looking at these factors together, we start to get the picture of a very talented athlete who emphasized the defensive aspect of his game early, mastered it, and is now cashing in on a stellar offensive pedigree as he enters the prime of his career. The power potential may have always been there but was held back by his early emphasis on attaining defensive prowess.

The second aspect of Wieters' production that Oliver isn't buying is the batting average. The reason for the projection and my objection to it is similar, albeit a bit more simplified. The projection looks at his 22.3 percent strikeout rate from his rookie season and seems to be over-emphasizing it against a trend of improvement. It expects him to strike out 76 more times in 433 plate appearances, for a rate of 19.4 percent.

Since putting up that mark in 2009, Wieters' strikeout rate dropped to a nominal 18.7 percent in 2010 and a very strong 15.2 percent in 2011. This positive trend is masked by a reverse trend in BABIP, which hit a career-worst .276 in 2011.

I'm more inclined to look at Wieters' career 18.3 percent strikeout rate and .301 BABIP and call the projection a bit bearish. His BABIP has normalized to .310 so far this year, and he's striking out 17.4 percent of the time. Those are both within the range of where I expect him to finish the year, and so, depending on how much his power continues to blossom, an average in the .275-to-.295 range is well within reason.

Finally, Oliver and I disagree on the classic projection issue—playing time. The Oliver projection only accounts for 433 more plate appearances, which would be well short of his current pace.

Wieters' .413 wOBA thus far is tops among the surprising Orioles offense. He's started 23 of the team's 29 games behind the plate, and if the team wants any chance to continue their hot start, they'll need his bat in the lineup as much as possible.

Sooner or later, that will mean some games at DH. Although Wilson Betemit is off to a hot start, this is a team without a true DH. Wieters should occupy that spot 15-20 times during the year, and more frequently as the year wears on and they want to give him breaks from squatting behind the dish without losing his offense.

Wieters easily could top 500 more plate appearances this year, and the longer the team is competitive, the larger that projection likely becomes.

Wieters looks like the perfect storm of rate production and volume at the catcher position. There may not be a better "set-it-and-forget-it" option behind the dish this year. Don't let his increasing price tag drive you away from acquiring him while you still can.

Oliver's Pick: Bryan LaHair
So far: .388-14-17-8-0
Oliver RoS: .284-74-95-31-1
Oliver Yahoo Value: $37
Oliver ESPN Value: $33

A popular seller's item to many, it was tempting to follow suit and tab LaHair a sell high, as well. Instead, I decided to go along with Oliver's projection and take a look at the reasons it might be wise to buy on Jeffrey Gross's heartthrob.

The reasons one might be inclined to view LaHair as a sell candidate are obvious.

His career thus far has been that of a Quad-A slugger,and he was expected to be simply keeping a seat warm for the gem of the Cubs' offseason, prospect Anthony Rizzo. And even though he's crushing the ball early in 2012, there are still some troubling signs for LaHair, specifically the 31.3 percent strikeout rate and .535 BABIP.

Make no mistake, LaHair is due a batting average correction. It's not likely he keeps hitting even within .100 points of what he's done so far in 2012. But its also important not to fall into the trap of the gambler's fallacy and assume that just because he's been lucky so far, that he's going to be the opposite moving forward.

The first thing that jumps out is that Oliver expects LaHair's strikeout rate to come down and BABIP to stay fairly high. According to the projection, we can expect roughly a 25 percent strikeout rate, which,though still high, is much more reasonable than the current mark. Oliver also projects a .325 BABIP that, combined with his power pace, still yields a positive batting average.

And that brings us to the big question—the power pace. Oliver isn't the least bit surprised by LaHair's seven early homers. In fact, that's almost exactly the pace Oliver expects him to hit homers for the duration of the year. It's completely buying into the 68 home runs he hit over the last two years in Triple-A.

Much of LaHair's minor league production has been written off due to a combination of age and belief that it was inflated by the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. However, the team he played for, the Iowa Cubs, play in one of the PCL's American divisions, which features primarily neutral or slightly pitcher-friendly parks.

The stigma surrounding the hitter friendliness of the PCL is derived from the Northern Divisions, where you'll find extreme hitter's parks such as Security Service Field (Colorado Springs Sky Sox), Chukchansi Park (Fresno Grizzles), Aces Ballpark (Reno Aces), and Spring Mobile Ballpark (Salt Lake City Bees).

In fact, according to Statcorner, Principal Park—the home of the Iowa Cubs—actually depressed left-handed home runs by 15 percent in both 2010 and 2011. So rather than diminishing his accomplishments in the minors the last couple of years, LaHair's hitting environments actually enhance them.

It's obviously foolish to pay $30 in value to acquire LaHair, even though Oliver sees him exceeding that value. The thing is, it's very unlikely you'll have to. If you were so inclined, you can probably acquire him for no more than half of that. He won't be the elite four-category force he's been so far, but he should continue to provide elite power totals without turning into a Carlos Pena-like pumpkin in batting average either.

Buy Low

Everyone loves a buy low candidate. The problem is, the owner who owns the buy low candidate usually loves him, too, so you may not be able to buy as low as you wish you could. Still, it's always helpful to identify guys who could see their performance improve in the not-too-distant future.

This week's buy low features a pitcher returning from injury who has been much better than he's seemed and a rookie first baseman struggling to find his groove.

My Pick: Adam Wainwright
So Far: 2-5.61-1.28-34
Oliver RoS: 11-3.15-1.14-145
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $21
Oliver ESPN Value: $21

After falling victim to Tommy John surgery during 2011's spring training, many of us were eager to see if Wainwright could regain his ace form of years prior. While the early returns in the roto categories have been a mixed bag at best, it's mostly a superficially inflated ERA that's holding him back, and all the signs of a pitcher getting ready to go on a dominant run are there.

This buy low is all about the narrative. For pitchers, ERA is by far the easiest statistic to anchor on, even for the savviest of owners. And anyone who drafted Wainwright must have been at least slightly concerned that he wouldn't be the same pitcher he'd been in years past.

It's very easy to look at the ugly ERA and feel those concerns have been validated, at least to an extent. But beneath the hood, Wainwright's actually been as good as ever, if not better.

Thus far, Wainwright has struck out 24.3 percent of the batter's he's faced, walked only five percent, and is generating grounders on 55.8 percent of the balls being put in play against him. Strikeouts, walks, and ground balls are the sabermetric trifecta of pitching acumen, and for Wainwright, all three of these marks would represent career bests.

Of course, it's not all roses. Wainwright's swinging strike and first-pitch strike rates are more in line with his career marks than you'd guess by the plate appearance outcomes. That's far from a bad thing, but it does mean the peripherals may be a bit higher than we should expect going forward.

Wainwright's velocity is also down a touch, though as Mike Podhozer recently pointed out at FanGraphs, no more than you should expect from a pitcher under normal circumstances through the end of April.

The main culprit behind Wainwright's early struggles is the fact that 28 percent of the fly balls he's allowed have left the ballpark. The chances of a major league pitcher throwing a full season with a mark even half that high are small. Sooner than later it will drop, and when it does his ERA will follow suit.

Even with the poor ERA, Wainwright's strikeouts and WHIP have been relatively strong. And on the offensive support side, the Cardinals have sported a .360 wOBA as a team thus far, by far the best mark in baseball.

It's easy to be discouraged by Wainwright's early ERA struggles, but past that he looks like the ace he was before the surgery. Now is the time to buy, and if you do, there's every chance you'll find yourself with a pitcher who gives you excellent production in all four categories.

Oliver's Pick: Paul Goldschmidt
So far: .232-1-9-13-2
Oliver RoS: .273-82-70-25-4
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $25
Oliver ESPN Value: $23

While Oliver sees Goldschmidt as something of a LaHair-light, his start to the year has been nearly as bad as LaHair's has been good. Still, the projection system remains steadfast that the slow start is nothing more than sample size noise though.

While Goldschmidt has limited major league experience, Oliver absolutely loves his strong minor league numbers, specifically the ISO that hovered around .300 and the strikeout rate that improved as he moved up the chain.

His MLE's are what tell the story. Goldschmidt's combined major league and Double-A production from 2011 translates to an impressive .277/.376/.569 batting line. Oliver also sees his home run power as more than legitimate, translating his homer total since 2010 into a whopping 68 bombs over 1083 plate appearances.

As with LaHair, the system also sees Goldschmidt striking out around a quarter of the time but posting a .325 BABIP and hitting enough home runs to sustain a respectable batting average. And while he doesn't quite have LaHair's elite power potential, he does have a dash of speed, which can have sneaky value from a first baseman.

Godschmidt's ownership rate has plummeted to 60 percent in Yahoo and under 50 percent in ESPN. Owners are getting frustrated, but the season is young yet, and there's still a great chance Goldschmidt can turn it around and finish the year as a top-10 first baseman. Don't hesitate to try to acquire him on the cheap.

Sell High

Sell Low

If selling high is one of the most enjoyable acts of a fantasy baseball season, selling low is one of the most painful. Admitting sunk cost is difficult, but there is opportunity in these situations when the admission is managed. Many times, other owners will pay above a player's projected value out of a misguided instinct to buy low or on name value alone. Even if the return price is below the price you paid, it may still be well more than the price you'd earn in keeping a broken player on your roster.

Wrapping up this week, we'll take a look at one of the year's most hyped young players who is yet to break through and a breakout performer from 2011 who is yet to repeat his success.

My pick: Brett Lawrie
So far: .277-14-15-3-3
Oliver RoS: .266-71-65-16-13
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $19
Oliver ESPN Value: $17

After a breakout year in Triple-A and a strong quarter-season in the majors in 2011, the fantasy community was eager to anoint Lawrie the second coming of [insert Hall of Fame third baseman]. Although he hasn't been awful this year, he hasn't yet lived up to these lofty expectations.

The key with Lawrie is that before 2011, he was considered a very good prospect but not an elite one. He hit just 21 home runs over his first 1,029 plate appearances. Likewise, his batting averages were more respectable than dominant, and while he stole bases, his success rate was poor.

Then he hit the Pacific Coast League—the American division of the Pacific Coast League. Unlike the situation with LaHair, this is the part of the PCL notorious for making David Ecksteins look like Babe Ruths. And make Lawrie look like Ruth, it did.

Lawrie hit .353/.415/.661 over a half-season in the PCL. After following that up with a .293/.373/.580 line over 171 major league plate appearances, most of us were convinced he was ready to become an elite major league third baseman, sample size be damned.

Now he's started 2012 looking much more like the player he was before 2011 than the one he was in 2011. And that's likely closer to the player he'll be for the balance of this year.

After slanting as an extreme flyball hitter in the majors in 2011, Lawrie has reversed track so far this year and hit 58.2 percent of his batted balls on the ground. Overall, that leaves him at a heavy 46.9 groundball rate through his young career. His power will likely be above average, but the evidence that he figured to sit in the 25-30 homer range was never really there.

He's also pretty consistently both walked and struck out at slightly below average rates. The evidence that batting average was going to be a consistent strength was never really there, either, and while he won't be an average drain, he won't be a significant boon, either.

Finally, the biggest concern may be Lawrie's speed. He's always been an aggressive baserunner despite speed that scouts considered merely good, not great. Like the rest of his game, Lawrie's basestealing prowess spiked in the PCL, as he stole 13 bases in 15 tries.

Prior to 2011, though, Lawrie had only been successful in 67 percent of his steal attempts, and so far this year he's only succeeded three out of six times. No matter where he hits in the potent Blue Jays lineup, you can bet he won't be allowed to run wild if he's getting thrown out so frequently.

And speaking of his position in the lineup, thus far he's regularly hitting sixth or seventh. You can shave at least 10 runs off his Oliver projection unless he can hit himself into a more favorable position.

Lawrie is a nice player, but the valued attached to his name got way ahead of his projection before he even played in his 50th major league game. He still possesses tremendous upside, but his projection doesn't justify the hype, at least not yet.

It's possible Lawrie will be a nice value in next year's drafts, but for this year, if someone is still willing to buy that name value, this may be one of your last chances to sell.

Oliver's Pick: Logan Morrison
So far: .274-6-9-2-0
Oliver RoS: .267-56-55-13-2
Oliver Yahoo! Value: N/A
Oliver ESPN Value: $2

Morrison made a name for himself last year with his bat and his twitter account, hitting 23 homers and drawing and army of internet followers. But like Lawrie, the production was a bit out-of-the blue. Oliver isn't buying the production spike, and he's yet to do anything this year to temper the projection's skepticism.

After hitting 24 homers in A-ball back in 2007, Morrison only showed mid-teens power between 2008 and 2010. His development became more about strong walk rates and solid contact rates. With little speed, he looked like he was become the type of player much more valuable in real life than fantasy.

Then Morrison suddenly started hitting for power again in his first full year in the majors in 2011. His batting average took a bit of a dive, and though the strikeouts spiked a touch, it was mostly due to a low BABIP.

So far this year, Morrison looks to have reverted to his old form. He's not showing great power, but he's walking more than he's striking out. This is more the kind of player Oliver sees based on the minor league track record, and probably more the kind of player Morrison is destined to be.

Even after last year's output, 20 home runs is about Morrison's ceiling. If anyone thinks they're buying low on a power hitter, feel free to sell away. Without the power, he won't carry much value in standard rotisserie formats.

THT Forecasts

Trader’s corner: week four

Mark Himmelstein — 2012-04-25T08:34:15+00:00

Welcome to Trader's Corner, your one-stop shop for bargains and busts. I've partnered with our good friend Oliver to look at the recent performances of a few players and why they could present a major profit opportunity for you. This won't just be your typical buy high/sell low column, though. As much opportunity as those situations may present, we'll also try to identify the hot streaks that figure to last and the cold spells that could spell doom.

Every two weeks, I'll look at a pair of players in each of four categories: Buy High, Buy Low, Sell High, and Sell Low. The first player will be my own selection and the the second based strictly on the Oliver projections.

Each entry will include the player's 2012 stat-line through April 23, plus their "Rest of Season" Oliver projection in the standard rotisserie categories (average, runs, RBIs, homers, steals for hitters; wins, saves, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts for pitchers).

Also provided will be the accompanying projected dollar values according to THT Forecasts' Custom Price Guide for both the standard Yahoo! and ESPN formats. Dollar values are based on a $260 draft budget with $2 allocated to each bench spot and a 70/30 hitter/pitcher split.

Now, in week four, early performance trends are starting to weigh on our judgments. Though most should still be largely ignored, many won't be, and there are even a few that shouldn't be. With that in mind, this will be a transitional edition Trader's Corner. We'll begin to factor 2012 performances and discuss their potential relevance or lack thereof.

As always, I'll keep a tally of all my recommendations, the date I made them, and the players' performances from that point forward. From time to time, I'll share the results in an attempt to evaluate how I'm faring and if there are trends to be found.

Buy High

Buy Low

Everyone loves a buy low candidate. The problem is the owner who owns the buy low candidate usually loves him too, so you may not be able to buy as low as you wish you could. Still, it's always helpful to identify guys who could see their performance improve in the not-too-distant future.

For today's Buy Low we'll look at a pair of scuffling former top prospects who should break out sooner than later.

My pick: Jesus Montero
So far: .241-3-8-4-0
Oliver RoS: .267-58-69-18-0
Oliver Yahoo value: $1*
Oliver ESPN value: N/A*

*assumes utility-only eligibility

Like Encarnacion, Montero is lousy defender freed by the DH. However, unlike Encarnacion, he doesn't have positional eligibility yet. That will change soon, and when it does, Montero should instantly become a top 10 fantasy catcher, if not better.

Many owners who drafted Montero in the Yahoo! format were likely hoping he'd have picked up catcher eligibility by now. With both Miguel Olivo and John Jaso on the Mariners roster, those owners may be starting to get nervous about how long it's taking.

What they may not realize is that Eric Wedge is following the deployment plan for Montero almost to the letter, but that the opening series in Japan disrupted the schedule in a way that gave him less incentive to put Montero behind the dish during the team's first few games.

Since coming stateside and completing the disjointed first week of play, Montero has started four times at catcher. All four have been in the last 10 games.

In Yahoo!, where only five games started are required for positional eligibility, Montero should get there by the end of the weekend. In ESPN, where 10 games are required, it will take a bit longer, but he'll still likely get there around the second week of May.

The other issue in play is that Montero is off to a slow start. He has hit a pair of home runs, but he's also hitting just .241.

This is almost entirely a BABIP mirage. His strikeouts and swinging strikes are both down a touch, not just from the short sample with the Yankees last year but from his numbers in the high minors as well. He also has a history of consistent high BABIPs in the minors.

Then when you consider his line drive rate is a respectable 19 percent and he's yet to hit an infield pop-up, it becomes clear that this is more an issue of well hit balls finding gloves than of anything Montero is doing wrong at the dish. It shouldn't take long for that his BABIP to climb back toward .300.

There's never been a better time to strike on Jesus Montero, and there may never be again. If you can get him for a reasonable price, you'll soon have a catcher-eligible player who can give you a decent average, good power, and a 600-plate appearance season. Even playing half his games in Safeco Field with a meager supporting cast, that combination of rate production and volume at a position notorious for lacking it should yield quite a bit of value.

Oliver's pick: Giancarlo Stanton
So far: .255-4-5-0-0
Oliver RoS: .265-73-88-30-5
Oliver Yahoo value: $24
Oliver ESPN value: $21

Like Montero, Giancarlo Stanton is off to a slow start. In fact, in the previous edition of Trader's Corner, there was a comment asking if Stanton is a good Sell Low candidate. At least according to Oliver, it's the opposite that's true.

Stanton's game is a bit one-dimensional, but that one dimension is pretty impressive. Few players in the game have Stanton's prodigious power. According to ESPN Hit Tracker, only one player in the majors averaged longer home run distances last year—Justin Upton.

The problem is that Stanton's yet to hit a home run this season. Some of this may be related to a sore knee that's led to occasional days off for the struggling slugger. Ozzie Guillen and Co. have even experimented with dropping him out of the cleanup spot. Being that fantasy owners drafted Stanton for his power, it's understandable that they may be growing concerned.

This article from the Florida Sun Sentinal well describes the problems Stanton and the Marlins are going through in the early season.

Take a close look at that article, though. There are a few inconsistencies, at least in how it relates to the current season. The first is that it names Edwin Rodriguez as the Marlins manager. The second is that it was written April 19, 2011.

Last year, it took Stanton 14 games to hit his first home run. Those 14 games occurred while Stanton was recovering from a hamstring injury. He ultimately hit just two April home runs before going on to average more than six home runs per month from May onward.

Stanton has played in only 14 games so far this year. Two instances do not a pattern make, but it's also far too early to panic. At the very least we know that he's capable of overcoming a slow start to post elite power numbers.

The one issue that Oliver can't account for here is injury. While it does see that Stanton missed time last year and therefore deducts a few plate appearances from his projected total, this year's knee injury sounds like it might be a bit more of a long term concern than the hamstring problem from a year ago.

There may be a bit more risk here than Oliver is seeing. I'd might shave a dollar or two from his expected value. But his ceiling is still so high and the evidence of his demise so weak that he still makes an excellent target if his owner is ready to hit the panic button and dump him on the cheap.

Sell High

There may be nothing more satisfying in fantasy baseball than selling a player at his peak value just to watch him crash and burn for another owner while you reap the benefits of that owner's former studs. It happens every year—whether it was Michael Pineda's second half swoon in 2011 or that time that closer saved 20 games in the first half only to blow four in a row and lose his job. You remember that guy, right?

Let's check in on a couple well-regarded pitchers off to fast starts who might be worth more in trade than in your lineup.

My pick: C.J. Wilson
So far: 2-2.37-1.05-15
Oliver RoS: 13-3.21-1.19-161
Oliver Yahoo value: $18
Oliver ESPN value: $18

One of the more polarizing figures among fantasy pundits going into the year, Wilson creates an excellent selling opportunity due to his fast start. The heat of the debate between supporters and detractors combined with strong surface numbers leave judgments on the Halos' pitcher wide open for favorable bias.

Those who entered the 2012 draft season high on Wilson saw him as a left-hander leaving the pitcher's nightmare that is the Ballpark at Arlington for much friendlier confines, and a starter who had established a track record of out-performing his peripheral statistics.

Those who weren't so high on him argued that two years of data isn't strong evidence of a trend and that beneath the apparent improvements he made to his strikeout and walk rates in 2011 there was little to be excited about. His swinging strike and first pitch strike rates were both merely average, and the trademark ground ball dominance of his relieving days had declined since he'd converted to starting.

Odds are someone in your league was in the former group. There's a good chance that owner will look right at Wilson's two wins and low ERA and feel vindication. What he'll ignore is that his walks are up, his strikeouts are down, and he's allowing more contact that ever before.

Wilson's ERA is almost exclusively a product of his minuscule .189 BABIP. Even if you believe he's one of baseball's oddities who can outperform BABIP expectations, that number is clearly unsustainable.

Of course, we're talking about only three starts so far, so there's not a whole lot we can infer from what Wilson's done thus far in 2012. If you thought his strikeout and walk rates would be better than they are coming into the year, there's little reason to divert from that opinion and tremble at the thought of BABIP regression.

The point isn't that you should be looking to exploit a divergence between Wilson's 2012 ERA and xFIP, but the potential bias of those who were expecting him to have a career year. He's a perfect example of a player for whom expectations may have increased disproportionately compared to his projection.

If anything, the fresh evidence is slightly negative in regard to Wilson's 2012 projection, albeit nearly meaningless. But the combination of a charged preseason debate and quality ERA could well lead to quick judgments on the part of his supporters.

You shouldn't sell Wilson for less than you paid for him, but now is a great time to shop him around and see if you can get more.

Oliver's pick: James Shields
So far: 3-2.76-1.09-20
Oliver RoS: 12-3.72-1.22-170
Oliver Yahoo value: $9
Oliver ESPN value: $10

Shields is another pitcher who had a career year in 2011 and is again off to a fast start to 2012. But after putting these performances in the context of his career, Oliver remains skeptical.

Although there were fewer who doubted Shields' stock increase for the 2012 draft season than Wilson's, that may have been a bit of an oversight. The reason is a confirmation bias of a different kind.

Shields posted a brutal 2010 ERA over a strong xFIP, so we expected to see his performance increase dramatically in 2011. When it did, there was little reason to call for scrutiny, even though there were some signs that he also wasn't as good as he appeared on the surface.

While 2011 was a career year for Shields, he substantially outperformed his xFIP. Most of the actual improvement can be credited to career-best strikeout and swinging strike rates. Most of the illusory improvement can be credited to a .264 BABIP.

Rather than assuming Shields would simply replicate the improvements in strikeout rate, it's worth asking whether this was the beginning of a new trend, or simply a small outlier and the high water mark of an otherwise good-not-great career.

The early returns for 2012 are not as promising as they might seem upon first glance. Although Shields has once again started with a bang in terms of ERA and allowing baserunners, his strikeouts and swinging strikes are both down not only below his 2011 rates, but his career rates as well.

The lesson that follows from Wilson follows here as well. We shouldn't necessarily treat anything about Shields' early performance as strong evidence, but we also shouldn't ignore the strength of Shields' 2011 season compared to his career scope. Oliver is particularly cognizant of this issue, hence the very modest projection.

If someone in your league is looking at Shields ace-like 2011 and strong ERA and WHIP to start the year and willing to part with a high value piece to acquire him, it would be wise to oblige that owner. Shields could well post ace-like numbers again, but the better bet is that he's a second or third-tier starter who you may be able to sell for top-tier value.

Sell Low

If selling high is one of the most enjoyable acts of a fantasy baseball season, selling low is one of the most painful. Admitting sunk cost is difficult, but there is opportunity in these situations when the admission is managed. Many times other owners will pay above a player's projected value out of a misguided instinct to buy low or on name value alone. Even if the return price is below the price you paid, it may still be well more than the price you'd earn in keeping a broken player on your roster, and that's really all that matters.

We'll wrap this edition up with a look at the struggles of a couple of former top prospects for whom a rebound may not be on the horizon.

My pick: Alex Gordon
So far: .177-5-5-2-0
Oliver RoS: .273-68-65-16-8
Oliver Yahoo value: $5
Oliver ESPN value: $10

The once top prospect turned post-hype sleeper success was not only overrated in this year's drafts, but is off to about as a bad a start as a hitter can be.

The temptation to select Gordon in the late single-digit rounds of drafts was understandable. He was one of the few players to put up positive value in all five categories last year. That alone made him an incredibly valuable asset, even without the lingering third base eligibility. However, there were some big warning signs that hinted at regression.

First, his 2011 BABIP was .356, a career high by a very wide margin. His strikeout and walk rates didn't see appreciable change, meaning it was always much more likely he'd hit closer to his career .259 mark than his 2011 mark of .303.

Second, he's a pretty poor base-stealer. He's discussed as 20-steal threat, but that number's well above his career pace. Even worse, smart money is on his attempt rate decreasing. He was successful on steal attempts less than 70 percent of the time in 2011, and had just one successful steal in six attempts in 2010 as well.

The good news is that the 20-home run power is much closer to his career pace, even while he was struggling prior to 2011. A .270-20-10 projection isn't unreasonable, and as long as he remains in the leadoff spot of a quietly respectable Royals' lineup, you could add a solid run total to those numbers as well.

That brings us to to this year's early struggles. Thus far, Gordon's strikeouts and whiffs are both way up, at 28.2 percent and 11.0 percent, respectively, and his BABIP all the way down to .225. The latter will surely improve, but for the moment is supported buy an unsightly 33 percent infield fly ball rate, so it's not all a product of luck

Like all small sample size results, most of this is not objectively meaningful, but that won't prevent others from reading too much into them. In this case, the potential culprit is Royals manager Ned Yost.

With Lorenzo Cain on the mend, the Royals soon may have another option for the leadoff position. If Gordon loses his spot atop the lineup, he loses not only potential in runs, but possibly the green light on the basepaths as well. A move to fifth or sixth would add a few RBIs to his projected total, but not nearly enough to offset the difference.

Even if Gordon retains his leadoff position, its worth seeing if anyone in your league is still willing to buy into the five-category potential he's not likely to replicate. If Yost loses patience and moves Gordon down in the order, be ready to quickly enter full-on sell mode.

Oliver's pick: Matt Moore
So Far: 0-5.12-1.66-11
Oliver RoS: 9-4.52-1.43-176
Oliver Yahoo value: N/A
Oliver ESPN value: N/A

One of the most hyped pitching prospects to reach the majors this side of Stephen Strasburg, Moore is having difficulty with command in his early major league career. While the sample size is small, Oliver simply isn't surprised.

If Moore had a blemish in the minors, it was command. After posting walk rates north of 10 percent in full seasons at both Low-A and Hi-A in 2009 and 2010, he seemed to correct the issue in 2011 with an above average walk rate in Double-A and nominal one in Triple-A.

Considering his video game-like minor league strikeout totals, most drafters were willing to look past the command problems of the past and pay a hefty price on Moore's gaudy potential.

Right now, Oliver's giving us all a big "I told you so." The system sees Moore striking out plenty of batters, but also walking 87 over 169 more innings this year. Strikeouts are great, but it will be nearly impossible for Moore to post positive marks in ERA and WHIP with that many walks.

Oliver has a strong reputation for handling players with limited major league experience. Considering his pure natural ability and the Rays' strong history of handling young pitchers, I'm more optimistic than Oliver that Moore can make the necessary adjustments as he goes. But those of us who weren't expecting any growing pains are probably in the midst of a very real wake-up call.

If other owners in your league are still drooling over Moore's potential, transfer the cost of these growing pains to them while you reward yourself with what should be a more valuable fantasy asset.

THT Forecasts

If you're curious about the projections and dollar values provided, make sure to check out the THT Forecasts section. For $14.95, you get full access to the Oliver projections for thousands of major and minor leaguers, including six year Major League Equivalency forecasts on every player card. And best of all for us fantasy junkies, you get full access to THT's Custom Fantasy Price Guides, which allows you to create your own price guide based on your league settings and play-style preferences using the Oliver projections, with projections and dollar values updated throughout the season.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Trader’s corner: week two

Mark Himmelstein — 2012-04-11T09:13:15+00:00

Welcome to Trader's Corner, your one-stop shop for bargains and busts. I've partnered with our good friend Oliver to look at the recent performances of a few players and why they could present a major profit opportunity for you. This won't just be your typical buy high/sell low column, though. As much opportunity as those situations may present, we'll also try to identify the hot streaks that figure to last and the cold spells that could spell doom.

Every two weeks, I'll look at a pair of players in each of four categories: Buy High, Buy Low, Sell High, and Sell Low. The first player will be my own selection and the second based strictly on the Oliver projections.

I'll keep a tally of all my recommendations, the date I made them, and the players' performances from that point forward. From time to time, I'll share the results in an attempt to evaluate how I'm faring and if there are trends to be found.

Each entry will include the player's rest-of-season Oliver projection in the standard rotisserie categories (in the format AVG-R-RBI-HR-SB for hitters and W/SV-ERA-WHIP-K for pitchers). Also provided will be the accompanying projected dollar values according to THT Forecasts' custom price guide for both the standard Yahoo! and ESPN formats.

Dollar values are based on a $260 draft budget with $2 allocated to each bench spot and a 70/30 hitter/pitcher split.

For the first few weeks of the year, I'll also include Average Auction Cost (AAC) figures for both ESPN and Yahoo, since they provide a reference for each player's market price heading into the season.

Week Two's edition of Trader's Corner will include a bit of discussion on players' early season performances, but established values will still be more heavily weighted towards players' preseason prices than 2012 results.

Buy high

Buy low

Everyone loves a buy-low candidate. The problem is the owner who owns the buy-low candidate usually loves him, too, so you may not be able to buy as low as you wish you could. Still, it's always helpful to identify guys who could see their performance improve in the not-too-distant future.

Much like the Buy High section, this edition's Buy Lows include a mid-priced pitcher who could produce top-tier results and a hitter being punished too much for a substandard batting average.

My Pick: Mat Latos

Yahoo! AAC: $10
ESPN AAC: $9
Oliver RoS: 13-3.65-1.21-200
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $12
Oliver ESPN Value: $13

I'm not entirely sure why Latos is being overlooked in the 2012 market, but I'm even more bullish on his prospects than Oliver is.

The change from Petco Park to Great American Ball Park concerns me, but only slightly. If we were talking about a more extreme flyball pitcher, I would be a bit more concerned, but Latos has a career 43 percent groundball rate. That's just a touch below the major league average.

Latos has given up 201 and 220 fly balls in his first two seasons, eight percent of which have gone for home runs. If instead 10 percent of those fly balls go for home runs, you only have to tack on about four extra homers to Latos's expected total.

According to The Book, the run expectancy of an average home run is about 1.7 (though since Latos is better than the average pitcher at preventing baserunners, it's likely lower for him). That means we would expect four extra home runs to add about 6.8 runs to Latos's season total. That would have increased Latos's 2011 ERA from 3.47 to about 3.70.

The flipside is that the Reds provide a far superior supporting cast for Latos on both sides of the field. They'll not only provide quite a few more runs for the young right-hander work with, but they'll also likely save a few more with their gloves, as well. Over the last three seasons, the Reds as a team have posted a 6.7 UZR/150, second only to the Rays over that span. Their UZR/150 has been no worse than 5.4 in any single season. The Padres had a UZR/150 of 1.5 over that span.

If Latos throws 190 innings, that will account for roughly 13 percent of the Reds' season. If their average fielder has a UZR/150 of 6.5, that would be 5.0 runs better than the support Latos was getting from the Padres. That means each fielder would save an additional 0.65 runs per about 190 innings. Multiply that by eight fielders, and you get 5.2 runs saved while Latos is pitching. That mark would nearly eliminate the damage done by the extra home runs.

Then when you also consider that the Reds are a far superior offensive team to the Padres, it actually becomes likely the trade will have a positive impact on Latos's fantasy value in aggregate.

In two seasons thus far in the major leagues, Latos has posted strikeout rates of 25.3 percent and 23.2 percent, walk rates of 6.7 percent and 7.8 percent, and groundball rates of 44.7 percent and 42.8 percent, respectively. If that sounds an awful lot like what Matt Garza did last year, and what I'm expecting from him again this year, it's because it is. They're very similar-looking pitchers moving forward with very similar costs to acquire. Unlike Garza, Latos had a rocky first start in 2012. Don't let that fool you. If you need pitching, look to get him on the cheap while you still can.

Oliver's Pick: Kelly Johnson

Yahoo! AAC: $2
ESPN AAC: $2
Oliver RoS: .241-79-79-22-12
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $10
Oliver ESPN Value: $15

Kelly Johnson's batting average is a bit of an enigma. Over the last four years alone, it's ranged from fairly helpful to highly detrimental. Because of this volatility, the market seems to be shying away from him. Don't shy with it—your opponents' trepidations can sometimes be your gains.

It's easy to flip the context on Johnson. He's a second baseman hitting near the top of a potent Blue Jays lineup. He'll play his home games in a ballpark that boosts run production. And best of all, he's coming off consecutive seasons of at least 21 home runs and 13 stolen bases. It's stunning to think that such a player can be had for merely a song, even despite a weak batting average.

The downside with Johnson is that the batting average decline appears to be more than superficial. His .277 BABIP in 2011 didn't help. Considering his career mark is .311, we should expect some increase, but the prospects of a .285 batting average and true five-category benefits are likely a thing of the past.

Johnson had been a respectable contact hitter during his career up through 2009, never posting a strikeout rate over 20 percent over a full season. In 2010, his strikeout rate crept up to 22.1 percent, a fact that was largely masked my a .339 BABIP. In 2011, the strikeouts increased even more, to a near-dangerous 26.6 percent. Even with a BABIP boost, a positive batting average is a long shot as long as he continues whiffing like that.

Of course, this doesn't mean Johnson is valueless. As long as he keeps hitting home runs, stealing bases, and drawing walks at a respectable clip, he makes a fine mid-range second baseman. But because of all the batting average variance, it seems the market just has no idea what to do with him. Rather than attempt a somewhat difficult evaluation, owners are neglecting to evaluate him at all.

That's a poor reason to ignore a legitimate threat in both power and speed who should provide plenty of runs and RBIs, as well. If an owner in your league landed on Johnson cheaply but isn't seeing the value, make sure you punish him for it.

Sell high

There may be nothing more satisfying in fantasy baseball than selling a player at his peak value only to watch him crash and burn for another owner while you reap the benefits of said owner's former studs. It happens every year, whether it was Michael Pineda's second half swoon in 2011 or that time that closer saved 20 games in the first half only to blow four in a row and lose his job. You remember that guy, right?

This round of Sell Highs includes a pitcher whose price tag may not match his value and an example of why the keystone is the most misunderstood position in fantasy baseball this year.

My Pick: Ian Kennedy

Yahoo! AAC: $17
ESPN AAC: $13
Oliver RoS: 14-3.58-1.18-198
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $15
Oliver ESPN Value: $16

Ian Kennedy sure had a fine year last year. He notched 21 wins, a 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 198 strikeouts. He induced swinging strikes at a high rate, avoided bases on balls, and threw plenty of first pitch strikes. So what's there to be bearish about with this emerging ace?

Honestly, I'm not that bearish on Kennedy. The selection flows largely from the two buy candidates I chose for today's edition. I simply don't see a huge difference between Latos, Garza, and Kennedy, and actually prefer the former two.

Garza's 2011 xFIP was by far the best of the three, at 3.19, while Kennedy's 3.50 mark was nearly identical to Latos's 3.52. Meanwhile, Latos was actually better in 2010 than he was in 2011, while Kennedy has never been as good as he was in 2011 by any measure.

Let's dig a bit deeper, though. There are two major factors with Kennedy that point to negative regression.

The first is his combination of his flyball proclivities and low home run-per-fly ball rate from 2011. He typically generates ground balls on fewer than 40 percent of the balls he allows to be put in play. Unlike Garza and Latos, this mark is well below than the league average.

Only 7.7 percent of Kennedy's fly balls left the park last year. Although not quite the bandbox Great American Ball Park is, Chase Field also produces quite a few long balls (and has actually had the higher combined park factor over the last few seasons). As such, whatever home run regression we're tabbing Latos for, we also have to tab for Kennedy.

However, unlike Latos, Kennedy doesn't have the stable track record of generating strikeouts and walks, with career rates of 20.4 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively. Kennedy also won't get the bonus of an improved defense to help offset the extra home runs we can expect him to give up.

In fairness, Kennedy did see sizable spikes in both his rate of first-pitch strikes and swinging strikes 2011, which supports the increase in strikeouts and decrease in walks. But, unlike the case of Garza's breakout, it's difficult to tie this to a major change in Kennedy's approach. His fastball velocity and pitch mix were essentially the same as they had always been.

Looking at Kennedy's Brooks Baseball card, we see that he did have a career-best whiff rate on his fastball at 7.31 percent. That's a solid number, but not enough to explain Kennedy's sudden dominance. His fastball had more movement than it did in the past—both on the horizontal and vertical planes—and while this likely helped, it seems an unlikely reason for the drastically improved results.

And this brings me to the second major regression factor that's begging for attention but also easy to miss. Kennedy's fastball, which averaged just 90.3 mph on the radar gun, graded as 28 runs above average in aggregate by Pitch Type Linear Weights in 2011. Since 2002, the earliest FanGraphs provides data on average pitch velocities and pitch type linear weights, only five right-handed pitchers have aggregated at least 25 runs above average with a fastball that averaged fewer than 91 mph in a single season.

Three of those pitcher seasons—Derek Lowe in 2002, Brandon Webb in 2006, and Tim Hudson in 2010—can essentially be ignored. They all had groundball rates of over 60 percent and represent a unique class of pitchers who generate outs in a specific way that has more to do with movement than velocity.

The other two examples were Chris Young in 2007 and Mike Mussina in 2003.

Young is a complete oddity and not much like Kennedy, either. Although much of his recent career has been lost to injury, most of the success he has enjoyed can be attributed to his career .248 BABIP. He's also 6-foot-10 and has surprisingly mediocre command. I don't see much to glean here.

Mussina presents a much better comparison. He likely had many years before 2003 where he got quite a bit of mileage out of a fastball without huge velocity. Still, 2003 was one of the best years he ever had and not a great example of a season he was able to replicate with regularity. His 3.09 FIP was the second-best mark of his career (xFIP also isn't available before 2002), and included a minuscule 4.7 percent walk rate.

It's very difficult to believe Kennedy can continue to generate such spectacular results—specifically via swings and misses and fly balls—with on a fastball having such modest velocity. Since pitch type linear weights are not defense independent, this issue probably overlaps the expected increase in his home-run rate. If anything, though, it probably better indicates the full extent of the expected regression. While it's possible the added movement on Kennedy's fastball was the major factor in his improved results, without other improvements, it's probably not a means to sustained dominance.

Kennedy is being drafted alongside potential aces like Madison Bumgarner and Matt Moore. If you bought him at that price, you probably should shop him around and see what you can get. You may be able to net a pitcher like Garza or Latos, who should produce very similar results, and then some.

Oliver's Pick: Robinson Cano

Yahoo! AAC: $46
ESPN AAC: $36
Oliver RoS: .305-81-91-22-4
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $29
Oliver ESPN Value: $25

The reason Oliver is selecting Cano this week isn't so much because it disagrees with the evaluation of Cano in particular, but in the market's evaluation of the keystone as a whole. Oliver concurs with the market than Cano is in fact the best second baseman going into the year. What Oliver disagrees with is that this makes Cano is a first-round value.

In the ESPN format, Oliver ranks a whopping 21 players at second base as superior to the replacement level. That's more than either third base or shortstop. Oliver also sees a fairly moderate performance variance between these 21 players. The market is simply neglecting to account for these factors.

The result of the market's inability to recognize this lack of projected variance is that most high-end second baseman are tabbed as overvalued and most low-end second baseman as undervalued. There's roughly a $20 projected profit swing from a player like Cano, who may cost you upwards of $10 at his market price, against players like Kelly Johnson, Danny Espinosa, and Ryan Roberts, who can all be had for pocket change and net around $8-10 in profit.

The general conclusion is that if you spent top dollar on a second baseman, it might be wise to shop that player around and see what's available. You can probably get a solid replacement second baseman as a secondary throw-in as part of a larger deal, or even find a valuable replacement on the wire. You'll be much better off with Carlos Gonzalez and Jose Altuve than with Robinson Cano and Lorenzo Cain.

Sell low

If selling high is one of the most enjoyable acts of a fantasy baseball season, selling low is one of the most painful. Admitting sunk cost is difficult, but there is opportunity in these situations when the admission is managed. Many times, other owners will pay above a player's projected value out of a misguided instinct to buy low or on name value alone. Even if the return price is below the price you paid, it may still be well more than the price you'd earn in keeping a broken player on your roster.

We'll wrap up this week with a couple outfielders who will give you solid production in a category or two but who probably won't provide enough total value to justify their prices.

My Pick: Matt Holliday

Yahoo! AAC: $23
ESPN AAC: $21
Oliver RoS: .304-73-79-20-5
Oliver Yahoo! Value: $17
Oliver ESPN Value: $18

It was just a year ago than Holliday was a virtual lock to be drafted in the second round of a 12-team draft. After missing a month 2011 with a bad quad, the price to acquire him has dropped a bit but probably not enough to justify the investment.

Holliday spent most of his mid-to-late 20s as a true five-category performer—someone who could hit 25-35 homers, steal around 15 bases, and bat over .300 while putting up gaudy totals in both runs and RBIs.

At least one element of Holliday's game has almost entirely evaporated since those days—speed. After attempting no fewer than 14 steals in any full season prior to 2011, he attempted only three last year. While it's tempting to write this off to his balky quad, he'd previously set a career low in both stolen base attempts and success rate in 2010 by getting caught five times in 14 tries. Expecting more than a handful of steals is no longer reasonable.

There are a few other troubling signs for Holliday, as well.

First, he's no longer a true 30-home run threat. He hasn't reached that mark since 2007. It seems unlikely he does again any time soon.

Second, his strikeout rate of 18 percent in 2011 was the highest it's been since his rookie campaign. With no speed left and power that's more good than great, Holliday absolutely can't afford to start striking out more frequently. Batting average is a huge part of his value, and if that starts to decline, it will be almost impossible for him to justify his price. It's not quite all-hands-on deck in the category yet, but it's a risk that bears watching.

Finally, his groundball rate inched up a bit in 2011, too. The 45.9 percent mark he posted last year was the highest he's had since his sophmore season of 2005, when he hit "only" 19 home runs in 526 plate appearances. Again, like the strikeout rate, this may be just noise, but it's something that bears watching.

At the very least, there's more risk than ever before that both his power and average decline in the near future, something fantasy owners absolutely cannot afford.

At age 32, the increasing possibility of injury and decline are starting to loom large for Holliday. If he does tally 600 plate appearances, it's still likely he hits around .300 with 25 home runs. But with no speed to back that up and no Albert Pujols to drive him in so regularly, there's not nearly as much supporting those totals as there once was.

The best-case scenario seems to be that Holliday justifies his cost but provides little to no profit. Oliver believes you can actually get similar, if not better, production out of players like Jay Bruce, Michael Morse, Pablo Sandoval, and Jason Heyward for a percentage of the cost. If someone is willing to buy him as the more-than-$20-player he used to be, don't hesitate to sell.

Oliver's Pick: Brett Gardner

Yahoo! AAC: $10
ESPN AAC: $10
Oliver RoS: .259-73-38-6-36
Oliver Yahoo! Value: N/A
Oliver ESPN Value: $8

Oliver is a bit unsure of how to handle Gardner. It views him as less than a Top 40 outfielder, meaning he won't carry significant value in the three-outfielder Yahoo! format. In the five-outfielder ESPN format, it sees an acceptable player, but not someone worth paying a significant price for.

In fact, Oliver is quite fond of Gardner on a rate basis. The problem is almost exclusively one of volume, as Gardner is only projected to receive 542 more plate appearances this season.

Unfortunately, in this case, it seems Oliver may be correct on the playing time issue. Joe Girardi is fairly set on getting Andruw Jones into the lineup against left-handed pitching, and this will largely come at Gardner's expense. Then even when Gardner is in the lineup, he's been penciled into either the eighth or ninth spot in every game thus far. This is not a good combination for his chances of accruing volume in the counting categories.

There's an interesting twist here, though, and a good example of something raw projections fail to account for. Gardner will likely in fact be more useful in the Yahoo! format, where you have deeper benches and fewer total games to fill, than the ESPN format, where the opposite is true.

Although the totals he's expected to produce leave him at roughly the replacement level in Yahoo!, the format's deeper benches and lower cap on games played give you the flexibility to roster other useful players who can fill in on days Gardner sits. On the other hand, in ESPN, the deeper starting lineups and diminished flexibility that comes with fewer bench spots means volume per player is absolutely crucial.

In the latter situation, there's not much difference between Gardner and a player who would give you identical totals in 650 plate appearances. In Yahoo!, that's a massive difference, since you can micromanage when you deploy Gardner and when you deploy other supporting players.

As a result, contrary to Oliver's recommendation, I would be more inclined to take a chance on Gardner in the Yahoo! format than ESPN. But when you combine the raw projection with these decision theory aspects, Oliver would recommend staying away unless the price is severely reduced in either case. If an owner in your league is short on speed and willing to pay a premium for Gardner's steals, make sure you don't stand in his way.

THT Forecasts

If you're curious about the projections and dollar values provided, make sure to check out the THT Forecasts section. For $14.95, you get full access to the Oliver projections for thousands of major and minor leaguers, including six-year major league equivalency (MLE) forecasts on every player card.

And best of all for us fantasy junkies, you get full access to THT's custom fantasy price guides, which allows you to create your own price guide based on your league settings and play-style preferences using the Oliver projections, with projections and dollar values updated throughout the season.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Roster analysis: the new guy

Mark Himmelstein — 2012-04-03T06:45:15+00:00

For those of you who don't know me, allow me to briefly introduce myself. My name is Mark Himmelstein, the THT Fantasy staff's most recent addition. Throughout the season, I'll be covering the Trader's Corner column, the inaugural edition of which you can find here, along with various other analyses and discussions.

As the newest member of the crew, I was eager to get involved in a few leagues with my fellow writers and show what I can do. I was invited to join the Hardball Times Fantasy League, and of course, graciously accepted.

The league features 12 teams, all managed by THT writers, including a large portion of the fantasy staff. It's in the rotisserie format with the standard 5x5 scoring categories. The draft was an online auction with starting budgets of $260.

Michael Stein, of the THT Fantasy feature The Verdict, already went over his team here. Now let's take a look at mine.

Roster

C - Miguel Montero ($10)
1B - Paul Konerko ($17)
2B - Brandon Phillips ($15)
3B - Mark Reynolds ($11)
SS - Starlin Castro ($21)
CI - Mat Gamel ($3)
MI - Danny Espinosa ($1)
OF - Justin Upton ($46)
OF - Jason Heyward ($17)
OF - Michael Bourn ($14)
OF - Matt Joyce ($4)
Util - Alex Presley ($2)
Util - Alex Rios ($2)

SP - Stephen Strasburg ($22)
SP - Brandon Beachy ($10)
SP - Mat Latos ($9)
RP - Jason Motte ($9)
RP - Joel Hanrahan ($9)
P - Greg Holland ($3)
P - Jonathan Broxton ($4)
P - Matt Thornton ($2)
P - Frank Francisco ($2)

BN - Mike Aviles ($3)
BN - Carlos Lee ($1)
BN - Tommy Hanson ($6)
BN - Anibal Sanchez ($6)
BN - Mike Minor ($5)

Discussion

My approach to the auction was to exploit the extra knowledge I had on the other writers' respective approaches. As the new guy and a long time reader of THT Fantasy, I know far more about their strategies and the players they like than they do about mine. That meant patience, and a willingness to exploit a market established by others rather than setting and dominating the market myself.

The result was that instead of a few true stars I have a large abundance of mid-range talent. This isn't a traditional approach to auctions, and while it paid off in certain areas, it led to two mistakes. In hindsight, both should have been perfectly manageable, but neither was so damaging that they killed my game-plan.

The first mistake was how I handled my top target—Justin Upton. I should have taken the initiative and nominated him myself. Instead, I let other stars come off the board first, and Upton was one of the last elite bats put on the block. That meant inflation, and I paid more than I would have liked.

The second mistake was leaving money on the table—$6 to be exact. A few owners were playing a strong stars-and-scrubs strategy and I wanted to leave myself enough money down the stretch to take control of the endgame market. It worked for most of the guys I had in the cross-hairs, but then came Lucas Duda.

Corner Infield was the one position I was yet to fill. Lucas Duda makes a fine target for this position, but I hadn't realized just how exhausted the the CI ranks had become after him. Only a few of us had flexible budgets left, so I nominated him, and Brad Johnson quickly engaged me in a small bidding war. I blinked first, and let him fall to Brad.

The choice essentially came to retaining enough of a budget to trump any subsequent nominations, but leaving some money on the table, or rostering Duda and waiting until everyone else exhausted their budgets as well to fill out the rest of my roster.

Brad later informed me he was willing to go further on Duda, so in hindsight, I probably would have lost him anyway. But it never feels good to leave money on the table.

With both mistakes the lesson is that I tried to be too fine, especially early, and it cost me some opportunity. If I had forced Upton onto the block sooner, I probably could have had him a bit cheaper. And if I had been more aggressive on high end talent, I wouldn't have been left wanting at CI and could have avoided leaving money on the table without necessarily sacrificing depth elsewhere.

Despite these mistakes, I still feel my roster is plenty strong. While I lack a true second-tier talent, I don't see any glaring weaknesses and should have plenty of room to compete in all 10 categories.

Here are some thoughts on a few of my particular selections and tactics.

Starlin Castro, Mark Reynolds, and Danny Espinosa

In terms of "actual" value, I overpaid for Castro. I knew it as I was doing it and I was willing to do it. Castro is a unique player who, in the auction format, I'll consider paying a premium on. The reason is that he brings not only a nice balance of skills, but in particular stability in a very difficult category to find it in: batting average.

I wanted to beef up batting average early, allowing me to target some undervalued, low-average bargains late. I managed to snag both Reynolds and Espinosa at prices I consider more than fair to complete this strategy.

For reference, Oliver projects Castro to be worth only $17 in this format, but Reynolds $19 (with just a .226 batting average) and Espinosa $11. So while I paid a $4 premium on Castro's projection, in total I paid $29 for $47 in projected value between the three, with the returns spread across all five categories. Other projections aren't quite as bullish on my projected profit from this trio, but still agree I should earn more than I paid in aggregate.

This not a tactic I would recommend in a snake draft format, where it's more difficult to target individual players at specific costs. The reason this works in auction is because you can get involved on any player at any time, whereas in a snake you're inherently cut off from a large percentage of the talent pool.

If I had selected Castro in the third round of a snake draft, I would have viewed the overpay as either a waste or a handcuff in terms of how I selected with subsequent picks. I might have passed on a nice value because they didn't offer enough power to complement Castro's batting average and speed. If I wanted to target Reynolds and Espinosa in particular, I likely would have had to pay much more than the equivalent of $12, killing a significant portion of the total value of the package.

Stephen Strasburg

While in the abstract I'm not thrilled with a pitching staff fronted by Strasburg, I view this as a tremendous bargain.

Oliver sees Strasburg producing a line of 12-2.96-1.05-191 in 165 innings. On its own, that's a decent price for that line, but then you also have to consider I'll have 40-60 extra innings to fill. A lot of other experts view this as a negative. I view their caution as an opportunity.

Those innings will come at the end of the year; the time of September call-ups and last place teams ready to fold up. It will be clear who the weak offenses are, and I can stream into strong match-ups and target some of the quality young arms getting their first taste of major league action.

I'm confident I can produce better-than-replacement-level results for free from Strasburg's vacated roster spot, and ultimately wind up with a line not too different from Justin Verlander's projected 17-3.09-1.09-241 in 235 innings—a full $30 value at 70 cents on the dollar.

It's a risky tactic, to be sure, but there's a lot of potential payoff.

Paul Konerko and Brandon Phillips

I view both first base and second base as having deep talent pools and high replacement levels this year, so in many leagues I wait as long as I can to fill them. But in this league I suspected a lot of the other owners would be thinking similarly and that a lot of the low-end value would disappear.

This turned out to be true to an extent—Ike Davis ($14), Jason Kipnis ($13), Paul Goldschmidt ($10), and Dustin Ackley ($10) all cost more than I wanted to pay. At first base we'd also already had Mark Teixeira go for $30 and Eric Hosmer for $22, two guys I consider similar to Konerko, so I think there's a decent chance I hit the sweet spot here.

There was more value at second base, including my later selection of Espinosa for $1, but I'm still okay with Phillips for $15. He's not a roster-maker at that price, but also not a roster-breaker.

Michael Bourn

Bourn, like Castro and Reynolds, is not someone I typically target—especially in snake drafts. I don't like investing a lot in players with such limited categorical depth. Fortunately, the one owner who I knew would be willing to bid Bourn past this point had depleted his budget, and since I wanted a bit of outfield stability with the more volatile Jason Heyward already on my roster, I went for Bourn.

Going out of my comfort zone was something I was prepared to do in this draft, and I'm perfectly content getting Bourn for $14—cheaper than fellow speedsters Desmond Jennings ($18) and Dee Gordon ($15), and not much more than the inferior Brett Gardner ($10).

Miguel Montero

Matt Wieters is my top catcher target this year, but after getting into a bidding war over him with Josh Shepardson, I let him go for $18. I'm not in love with Montero, but I like him plenty at $10.

This is the only team I'm running this year where I don't own Wieters.

Mat Latos, Tommy Hanson, and Anibal Sanchez

The room got very frugal at the point at which these three were nominated, and I was perfectly keen to take advantage. I would have easily spent the six bucks I left on the table to win the bidding on these guys.

Latos is someone I didn't necessarily expect to target going into draft season, and not someone I feel the need to overpay for, but somehow I own him on almost all of my teams. I'm not sure if he's simply getting overlooked, people are more concerned about the ballpark shift than they should be, or if Dusty Baker just scares the bejeezus out of people. Whatever it is, I see both a quality offensive and defensive team in the Reds and a neutral enough batted ball profile from Latos that I'm not terribly worried about the shift from Petco to Great American Ballpark.

It's also worth mentioning that Latos has a higher career home run per fly ball rate at Petco (8.3 percent) than on the road (7.8 percent). I'm not sure that point is particularly meaningful, but I'd rather the split be structured this way than vice versa, since it might suggest he alters his approach in more hitter friendly confines to reduce the longball.

Hanson's shoulder and revamped mechanics scare me, but I spent $6 for a guy with $20-25 upside. No problems here.

Sanchez is a popular sleeper this year, and I was quite surprised to get him at this price. Although the projections aren't as crazy about him as one might think based on the hype, at $6 I have no problem banking on his improving strikeout rate, strong looking Miami offense, and big looking new ballpark.

Mat Gamel and Carlos Lee

This was the result of the drop-off behind Lucas Duda at the CI position. After losing the staring contest with Brad, I knew I was going to be weak here, so I went after the veteran Lee for some stability and a prayer for resurgence, pairing him with the youngster Gamel in the hopes that he can reach his breakout potential.

Gamel's been putting up gaudy numbers in the Pacific Coast League for years (.301/.374/.512 career line over 1247 plate appearances). While we're all trained to take PCL numbers with a grain of salt, the American divisions aren't nearly as hitter friendly as their Pacific counterparts. Greer Stadium (home of the Nashville Sound, the Brewers' Triple-A affiliate) has actually played almost perfectly neutral over the last few years. Hopefully, the 26-year-old slugger can quickly assuage my concerns now that he finally has a bit of job security in Milwaukee.

Mike Aviles

Getting Aviles was another consequence of letting Duda pass. He was still on the board after Brad won Duda, and I was able to instantly lock him onto my roster with a $3 opening nomination, since no one else had the budget room to beat me.

Being that Aviles was someone that I was turned onto largely by other writers at THT, I was pleasantly surprised he lasted long enough for this to happen. He's another player I'm winding up with on a lot of teams. He has eligibility all over the infield, decent power and speed, and a career .350 wOBA against left-handed pitchers. Add that up, and he looks to me like an ideal reserve hitter. He'll be in my lineup virtually every time the Red Sox face a lefty. Plus, he makes a fine backup in case there's an injury to any of my middle infielders and can even provide some support at CI.

Closers

Stocking up on closers was a last second decision, not a planned strategy. I bought Motte early for $9. Then I snuck in nominations on both Holland and Broxton, figuring I could get a cheap closer between them and that the other might wind up being a playable non-closing reliever anyway. Finally, I paid $9 for Hanrahan, since I had the budget space and wanted the security.

Then the incident over Duda happened. Knowing there wasn't going to be another opportunity to spend big money, and that aside from CI my roster was pretty complete, I decided cornering the stopper market might be my best bet. The quality scrubs were all gone and my pitching and offense both felt as strong as they were going to get. So I grabbed up a few more closers, figuring I could leverage the scarcity of saves into small, necessary upgrades later in the year, when it becomes more clear what my needs are.

I picked up Francisco for job security and Thornton for potential value regardless of saves. I'll either build up a nice buffer in the category early, or I'll be able to dangle some of these guys for minor roster adjustments on an as-needed basis, removing the guesswork and useless $1 bids from the end of the auction.

Conclusion

Mistakes aside, I'm happy with this team. I could have been more aggressive early, and in future seasons in this league I certainly will be, if only by virtue of the fact that the other writers will know more of what to expect from me and any advantage of playing the role of the "wild card" will be wiped away.

I don't see any reason I can't make a strong run with this roster. I have a lots of power, plenty of speed, no obvious problem in batting average, and I put together a low cost pitching staff that figures to generate quality results. Add a dash of luck, and you have the recipe for a successful fantasy season.

Feel free to share your own opinions in the comments below.

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Trader’s corner: week zero

Mark Himmelstein — 2012-03-27T09:28:15+00:00

Welcome to Trader's Corner, your one-stop shop for bargains and busts. I've partnered with our good friend Oliver to look at the recent performances of a few players and why they could present a major profit opportunity for you. This won't just be your typical buy high/sell low column, though. As much opportunity as those situations may present, we'll also try to identify the hot streaks that figure to last and the cold spells that could spell doom.

Every two weeks, I'll look at a pair of players in each of four categories: Buy High, Buy Low, Sell High, and Sell Low. The first player will be my own selection and the the second based strictly on the Oliver projections.

Trader's Corner is geared toward those owners who have already constructed their teams and are trying to find ways of improving their rosters. But fret not, tardy drafters; you too may find some pearls for your upcoming draft or auction.

I'll keep a tally of all my recommendations, the date I made them, and the players' performances from that point forward. From time to time, I'll share the results in an attempt to evaluate how I'm faring and if there are trends to be found.

Each entry will include the player's Rest of Season Oliver projection in the standard rotisserie categories (in the format AVG-R-RBI-HR-SB for hitters and W/SV-ERA-WHIP-K for pitchers). Also provided will be the accompanying projected dollar values according to THT Forecasts' Custom Price Guide for both the standard Yahoo! and ESPN formats.

Dollar values are based on a $260 draft budget with $2 allocated to each bench spot and a 70/30 hitter/pitcher split.

For the first few weeks of the year I'll also include Average Auction Cost (AAC) figures for both ESPN and Yahoo, since they provide a reference for each player's market price heading into the season.

Buy High

Buy Low

Sell High

There may be nothing more satisfying in fantasy baseball than selling a player at his peak value, only to watch him crash and burn for another owner while you reap the benefits of said owner's former studs. It happens every year—whether it was Michael Pineda's second half swoon in 2011 or that time that closer saved 20 games in the first half only to blow four in a row and lose his job. You remember that guy, right?

For today's Sell High, we've got a couple of infielders who are looming a bit too large on some owners' fantasy radars.

My Pick: Mark Teixeira
Yahoo! AAC: $29
ESPN AAC: $25
Oliver says: .255-74-88-28-0
Oliver's Yahoo! value: $12
Oliver's ESPN value: $11

Mark Teixeira is someone both Oliver and I feel may hit a sudden and sharp decline, and that it may be soon. The only difference between our opinions is that Oliver doesn't see Teixeira reaching 600 plate appearances, while I do. Otherwise we're right on the same page, and we agree that there's far more risk than reward left in the slugger's bat.

On the surface, Teixiera seems like your typical three-category slugger. He'll hit his share of homers and help himself to plenty of counting numbers batting in the heart of the potent Yankees lineup. Unfortunately, age may be catching up to both Teixeira and his teammates, costing him in both departments.

While some point to Teixiera's low BABIP in 2011 as reason for optimism in 2012, consider the following trends:

Year    BABIP   HR Avg True Dis   HR Avg Spd
2007    .342         415.5          106.9
2008    .316         398.2          104.1
2009    .302         399.3          104.0
2010    .268         393.4          103.5
2011    .239         386.9          102.6

The two right hand columns above represent the "Average True Distance" and "Average Speed off Bat" of Teixeira's home runs for each of the corresponding seasons (data courtesy of ESPN Hit Tracker). Not only has his BABIP declined in four consecutive seasons, but the distance and velocity with which he's been hitting his home runs has declined in an incredibly corollary manner. In 2011, the American League averages for home run distance and speed were 394.7 and 103.4, respectively. For the first time in his career, Teixiera was well worse than the league in both marks.

In fairness, Teixeira's 2007 BABIP was way above his career norm, and the subsequent drop can be written off to regression to a large extent. Still, the same can't be said for the subsequent drops, and it does seem as though he's gone from one of the preeminent sluggers in the game to someone who absolutely requires the short right field porch in Yankee Stadium to keep his power numbers aloft. He's simply not hitting balls with as much authority as he used to, and as such, I would advise caution in regressing his BABIP too far.

Teixeira's fantasy production is now directly tied to his ability to produce the long ball. If his power drops off, the results for your fantasy season could be disastrous. Even if he hits .260 with 30 home runs, you'd be better off with fellow aging slugger Paul Konerko, who is less of a liability in batting average and has shown fewer dents in the armor in recent years.

If he falls off the way Oliver and I are predicting, Teixeira would be one of the largest potential drains on your fantasy wallet this year. Let someone else take that risk—sell high while you can.

Oliver's Pick: Howie Kendrick
Yahoo! AAC: $15
ESPN AAC: $9
Oliver says: .277-62-58-10-10
Oliver's Yahoo! value: N/A
Oliver's ESPN value: $2

While he's a popular sleeper in some quarters, Oliver sees almost no value in Kendrick this year. In fact, in the MI-less Yahoo standard format, Oliver sees Kendrick as worth less than $1, not even bothering to rank him in the price guide.

Why the hatred? Well, for one, Oliver sees Kendrick getting merely 519 plate appearances, putting a serious dent in his fairly balanced skill set. But even if we assume he'll crack 600 plate appearances (something he's done only once in his career, for the record) and add 20 percent across the board to that projection, it takes him only to a line of .277-74-70-12-12. That's still a modest return on a $15 investment.

The problems Oliver sees are two-fold. First, Kendrick's strikeout rate shot up last year. Second, the system doesn't lend much credence to the power gains he made.

I agree that both issues are troubling, though not nearly to the same extent. Despite hitting 18 homers in 2011, Kendrick still pounded the the ball into the ground more than 50 percent of the time. If this didn't come at the cost of all the added whiffs, I might be calling Kendrick a sleeper myself. The problem is all those whiffs will make it much harder for Kendrick to produce the batting average profit some are still hoping for, and the high quantity of ground balls also mean it's unlikely he repeats his home run total from 2011.

The best case scenario for Kendrick would be if he reverted to his old game of avoiding strikeouts while hitting the occasional home run and stealing the occasional base. This could well put him in the $10-15 range. Unfortunately, the changes to his profile from last year don't add a whole lot of upside, and they do add a bit of risk. If another owner is buying the power gains and still seeing the batting average upside, there may never be a better time to sell.

Sell Low

If selling high is one of the most enjoyable acts of a fantasy baseball season, selling low is one of the most painful. Admitting sunk cost is difficult, but there is opportunity in these situations when the admission is managed. Many times other owners will pay above a player's projected value out of a misguided instinct to buy low or on name value alone. Even if the return price is below the price you paid, it may still be well more than the price you'd earn in keeping a broken player on your roster.

Finding sell low candidates for week zero has proven quite a challenge. Thanks to a powerful combination of Loss Aversion and the Halo Effect, negative trends are given much more weight than they deserve. Players who are trending downwards are almost universally devalued, whether justified or not. This creates lots of buy low opportunity, but scant sell low opportunity. This is especially true during the offseason, when all we can do with all the information we have is let it simmer.

Once the season begins and new trends emerge, things change. People will have less time to inundate themselves with analysis on how Francisco Liriano's no hitter wasn't actually a very well pitched game or why Chris Perez didn't really have a very good year. Everything happens at a faster pace, meaning markets have less time to adjust.

Despite my struggles, I did find someone worth discussing, and Oliver had quite a few suggestions as well. So let's look at a pair of pitchders being drafted at a much lower price than they were last year, but might still be better served off of your team than on it.

My Pick: Ubaldo Jimenez
Yahoo! AAC: $5
ESPN AAC: $9
Oliver says: 14-3.56-1.25-219
Oliver's Yahoo! value: $11
Oliver's ESPN value: $13

My first major disagreement with Oliver in this series, Jimenez is also a popular sleeper pick in some circles. It's that very reason that I'm calling him a sell low candidate.

Proponents of the Ubaldo Jimenez sleeper campaign are quick to point out that both his strikeout and walk rates have been relatively stable, and that he's still only a year removed from fantasy acehood.

The first problem with this is that his 2010 season was at least as much of a mirage as his 2011 season, just in the other direction. Even in 2010, he had a 3.60 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA. Those numbers are solid, but considering the declining run environment they're more middle-of-the-pack than ace-like for fantasy purposes.

The second is that a stable 10 percent walk rate is not a good thing. That's a WHIP-killing mark, and I'm quite surprised to see Oliver expect such a nominal WHIP from Jimenez.

The third is that his velocity, swinging strike rate, and first pitch strike rate all took a major nosedive in 2011. In fact, all three were the worst marks of his career. He wasn't throwing as hard, was getting ahead in the count less frequently, and got fewer swings and misses than ever before. So even though his strikeouts remained solid last year, there's quite a bit of sneaky risk here as well.

In checking the other projection systems available on Jimenez's FanGraphs player page, it does turn out that Oliver is more optimistic than any of the six projections featured (Steamer, Bill James, RotoChamp, Marcel, Fan Projection and ZiPS) in all four rotisserie categories. They all still see him as a reasonable value at this cost, but to an extent, they help vindicate my side of this disagreement.

Just to be clear—I do think that at this draft cost Jimenez is a fair value. I just know a lot of other people think he's actually undervalued. I see him as something like the 'anti-Jeremy Hellickson'—a guy who looks like he was very unlucky in 2011 but whose components could also regress toward his surface numbers rather than vice versa. That's a risk a lot of very savvy owners are missing. If you own Jimenez, take advantage of it and sell him while you can still get some positive value compared to his actual projections.

Oliver's Pick: Jon Lester
Yahoo! AAC: $24
ESPN AAC: $16
Oliver Says: 13-3.68-1.27-203
Oliver's Yahoo! Value: $8
Oliver's ESPN Value: $11

Once a lock to be a Top 50 draft selection, a combination of small losses across the board and the declining run environment have caused some of the shine to wear off on Jon Lester's fantasy prospects. Even worse, Oliver sees him as having nowhere to go but down.

Oliver actually views Lester as inferior to my pick, Ubaldo Jimenez. Although I politely disagree, there are some striking similarities.

Like Jimenez, Lester has never been a control guy. In 2010 and 2011, his walk rate started inching up toward the double-digit range, reaching about 9.5 percent both years. In 2011, his strikeouts dropped off a bit as well, from an excellent 26 percent rate in the previous two seasons to a still solid, but less-than-spectacular 22 percent. This was also supported by a decline in swinging strikes and a drop in velocity, so it may be more than just statistical noise.

If you were too tempted by Lester's appearance on your draft board in the fifth or sixth round to pass, Oliver would suggest that now is the time to cash that value in and try to find a payoff elsewhere.

THT Forecasts

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Elvis impersonators

Mark Himmelstein — 2012-03-06T04:20:15+00:00

Shortstop is one of those "scarce" positions in fantasy baseball that tends to generate lots of polarization. From the inherently risky high end choices to the low upside bargain buys, even experts have a hard time agreeing on a strategic approach to the position. As much as ever, this year there are three shortstops at the top—Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes—and everybody else. So if you're among the majority of us who will wind up with someone from the "everybody else" category, the question becomes where to find the value among these lesser number-sixes. Here's a look at three different players who, despite drastically different costs, should provide similar value.

Elvis Andrus

Statistics

	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	BABIP	ISO	HR/FB	GB%	Spd
2011	150	665	5	96	60	37	12	75.5%	.279	.347	.361	8.4%	11.1%	.312	.082	4.8%	55.8%	6.4
Career	443	1880	11	256	135	102	33	75.6%	.271	.340	.343	8.5%	13.1%	.312	.073	3.8%	57.5%	6.6

Projections

	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	BABIP	ISO
Oliver	658	4	79	45	33	10	76.7%	.269	.334	.345	8.8%	12.6%	.295	.076
ZiPS	700	4	87	50	37	13	74.0%	.275	.348	.350	9.3%	11.9%	.312	.075
James	628	4	93	54	39	13	75.0%	.281	.351	.357	8.9%	11.9%	.318	.076

Elvis Andrus is a fine player who provides solid rotisserie value thanks to good wheels and a secure position near the top of a powerful Texas Rangers lineup. He generates plenty of runs by making contact and drawing a healthy dose of walks ahead of Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Michael Young, and Nelson Cruz. He even got to hit behind Ian Kinsler last year, too, giving him more RBI opportunities than most speed-first players. Best of all, he doesn't even turn 24 years old until the end of August, so his best is likely yet to come. So why am I a bit bearish on this young semi-stud?

First things first; 60 RBI is about the ceiling for a low-powered top of the order hitter. He reached that total last season thanks to Ian Kinsler staying healthy and in the leadoff spot all year. Unless Andrus finds his way to double digit homers, that number is more likely to move down than up.

You can also say the same thing about the 96 runs. If he were to find himself leading off instead of Kinsler he'd have the potential for a triple-digit run total, but that would reduce his RBI potential. He's also no more than a break-even basestealer. With a 75.5% career success rate and a virtually identical mark in 2011, the possibility of even a slight increase to 40 steals isn't very likely—especially since Ron Washington has shown a willingness to issue red lights to inefficient basestealers in the past.

Beyond that, the most alarming thing about Andrus is that he has an absolutely terrible time getting the ball in the air. His career ground ball rate is 57.5% and he's been one of the eight most frequent worm burners among qualified hitters in all three of his full seasons, hitting balls into the ground at least 55% of the time in each one. This severely limits his power potential. While this is in part a way for him to try and take better advantage of his speed, he's also yet to show a knack for the absurdly high batting average on balls in play you see with the few ground ball machines who have turned themselves into true fantasy assets.

When you look at the stat sheets on Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki, Michael Bourn, and Howie Kendrick, while you routinely see high ground ball rates, you also see BABIPs that vary from .325 to as high as .390. In fact, Jeter has only once in his career posted a BABIP below Andrus' career rate of .312, and that was Jeter's miserable 2010 season, when it was .307. So without double digit homers or a BABIP that could dwarf the league average, Andrus' solid contact rate alone won't be enough to provide a superior batting average. His average won't hurt you, but without quite a bit of luck or a big change in his approach it won't suddenly spike and become an asset either.

What we have in Andrus is a two-category player who won't even quite challenge the league leaders in either of his good categories. Is it possible that he starts hitting a few more balls in the air and driving his fly balls further? Might he increase his BABIP or improve his success rate on the basepaths? Is it inconceivable that he might do this all at once? No, not inconceivable, but neither is it worth it to pay a premium for that somewhat remote possibility.

Dee Gordon

Statistics

	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	BABIP	ISO	HR/FB	GB%	Spd
2011 (Triple-A)	70	313	0	51	24	30	4	88.2%	.333	.373	.410	5.8%	12.8%	.382	.076	--	--	9
2011 (MLB)	56	233	0	34	11	24	7	77.4%	.304	.325	.362	3.0%	11.6%	.345	.058	0.0%	55.9%	7.7

Projections

	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	BABIP	ISO
Oliver	623	2	75	40	40	13	75.5%	.267	.304	.333	4.5%	15.9%	.311	.066
ZiPS	679	1	86	34	55	19	74.3%	.271	.310	.339	4.7%	15.8%	.323	.068
James	581	0	72	30	42	12	77.8%	.270	.301	.32	4.3%	13.4%	.314	.050

Dee Gordon is fast. He's very fast. He's so fast, his father (former relief ace Tom Gordon) should be ashamed for having already laid claim to nickname "Flash". Dee's 9.0 Spd score would have lead the Triple-A Pacific Coast League in 2011 had he qualified for the batting title. Even with only 313 plate appearances he tied for fourth in the league with 30 steals. He loves to run, and while his success rate in the minors fluctuated a bit, last year he managed to avoid getting thrown out an outstanding 88.2% of the time in Triple-A and a still solid 77.4% of the time in the majors.

Even better, he's already been tabbed the Dodgers' leadoff hitter, so he has a chance at 700 plate appearances as long as he holds that spot down for the duration of the season. Don Mattingly may still be a bit green as far as managers go, but he didn't give Matt Kemp any kind of restrictions following a poor showing on the basepaths in 2010, and the organization has been very aggressive with its handling of Gordon thus far. He'll have free reign to run as much as he pleases.

Gordon should steal more bases in 2012 than Elvis Andrus, and it may not even be close. He also made contact at a similar rate last year and likewise put most of his balls in play on the ground. Although the projection systems conservatively (and wisely, given the lack of data) regress his expected strikeout rate, Gordon also has the advantage of hitting from the left side of the dish. That means a shorter distance from home to first.

Combined with his superior speed, he should have an easier time leveraging his tendency to hit the ball on the ground into a naturally high BABIP. This is why the projections call for the two players to post similar batting averages, though it must be understood that there's far less certainly with Gordon. He could continue to avoid striking out while putting up a .350 BABIP and yield a monster batting average, or he might start whiffing more frequently and popping up too often and wind up with a poor one, or he could find himself anywhere in between.

That's the good news. The bad news is that he may not hit a single home run in 2012, and hitting atop a more modest National League lineup will mean fewer RBI opportunities than Andrus. Gordon's low walk rate also raises a red flag. At the very least, it implies there's a lower floor to his run scoring potential, though hitting leadoff helps offset that difference.

Overall, while Gordon could steal 10 or even 20 more bases than Andrus, Elvis will give you the benefit of a few extra homers and RBI and a far less volatile projection.

Erick Aybar

Statistics

	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	BABIP	ISO	HR/FB	GB%	Spd
2011	143	605	10	71	59	30	6	83.3%	.279	.322	.421	5.1%	11.2%	.301	.142	7.0%	48.0%	7.2
Career	629	2376	24	286	206	78	27	74.3%	.276	.319	.379	5.1%	12.1%	.307	.104	4.1%	49.1%	6.2

Projections

	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	BABIP	ISO
Oliver	519	6	66	45	19	7	73.1%	.270	.310	.376	5.4%	11.8%	.291	.106
ZiPS	606	8	74	53	24	7	77.4%	.275	.320	.392	5.3%	11.7%	.302	.117
James	583	8	74	53	26	10	72.2%	.274	.320	.390	5.5%	12.2%	.303	.116

Erick Aybar isn't as sexy as the King of Rock n' Roll. He's also not as Flashy as Flash Jr. He is, however, an established talent who provides similar production. Best of all, he seems to be getting better.

Like Andrus and Gordon, Aybar makes contact at an above average rate, has good speed, and is likely to hit at or near the top of his lineup. He doesn't walk as frequently as Andrus and he doesn't have have Gordon's off-the-charts speed, but he does have a few things going for him that his counterparts don't.

First, Aybar has always had a touch of power. Though his career HR/FB is a modest 4.1%, that number plays stronger since he isn't nearly as allergic to hitting balls in the air. He also managed to jump his HR/FB up to a career best 7% in 2011, bringing with it the expected spike in ISO from his career .104 mark to .142. In fact, in 2011 he set career bests in homers, doubles, strikeout rate, steals, stolen bases success rate, runs and RBI, so as far as fantasy goes, he literally improved across the board.

He's actually attempted more steals and improved his success rate in three consecutive seasons, which bodes very well for his speed projection. His manager, Mike Scioscia, doesn't even seem to understand the meaning of the phrase "red light," so no worries on that front. And now, just to put a cherry on top, he'll have Albert Pujolsr batting just a few spots behind him in the order, giving him even more run scoring potential than he already had.

If there's so much reason to be excited about Aybar in 2012, then why does it seem as if the projection systems are slightly bearish on his prospects? There's certainly concern that his power increase was more statistical noise than actual improvement. After all, he was already 27, which is a bit on the old side for a true breakout (though hardly unheard of). Otherwise, it really comes down to just one issue: playing time.

Playing time is one of the most difficult things to project, and the three systems listed here all think Aybar is due significantly fewer trips to the plate than Elvis Andrus or Dee Gordon. If you prorate his projected numbers closer to 650 plate appearances, you'll see where the excitement is coming from. The problem is, he's never come particularly close to reaching that number. In fact he only cracked 600 plate appearances for the first time in 2011, and even then just barely.

This is the gamble that comes with Aybar, and it's a gamble that I'm willing to make. He seemed to finally earn Mike Sciosia's trust in 2011, taking over the lion's share of leadoff duties in the second half of the year. I'm cautiously optimistic that he can parlay that trust into an increased workload this season. His combination of glovework, spike in offensive production, switch hitting ability in a right hand dominant lineup, and the offense's roster squeeze at other positions create a situation ripe with opportunity, both for Aybar himself and fantasy owners alike.

Not to mention, he's in a contract year. Though I'm not convinced that type of thing has any kind of vast influence on a player's overall production, it may motivate someone like Aybar to attempt a few more steals than he would have otherwise or to more vehemently try to talk his way into the lineup on days he would have otherwise had off. Even if 2011 goes down as the best year of his career, and 2012 is simply an encore, there still could be plenty of value to be had here.

Average Draft Results

	Mock Draft Central	Yahoo! Snake	Yahoo! Auction	ESPN Snake	ESPN Auction	CBS
Elvis Andrus	43.98	47.3	$21	63.5	$14.70	100.34
Dee Gordon	144.99	149.4	$6.80	134.7	$6.90	178
Erick Aybar	145.94	163.30	$4.30	144	$5.60	167.84

There's quite a bit of dissent between the different markets on how to treat these three shortstops. Particularly in the case of Andrus, you'll see him going as early as the mid fourth round at Mock Draft Central and as late as the ninth round at CBS. There's a bit more consensus on the values of Gordon and Aybar—both are most frequently going between between the 12th and 15th rounds—but there's tons of disagreement on how these three should be valued in relation to each other.

Of course, while one should never expect a draft to follow the market patterns too closely, these variations present three distinct scenarios that might be found in any given draft. To wrap things up, lets consider how to handle each situation.

Mock Draft Central/Yahoo!

Mock Draft Central and Yahoo! yield similar results, so we can view them in tandem. In both cases, the average draft position for Andrus is more than 100 picks earlier than that of Gordon or Aybar, and in Yahoo! Auctions the difference in price is around $14 to $17. This is far too aggressive on Andrus—he's not a $20 player without substantial improvement over his established norms—and not nearly aggressive enough on Gordon and Aybar. Let someone else invest that kind of cost in Andrus while you get one of the others on the cheap.

Even if you're not totally comfortable taking the plunge on Gordon or Aybar, you can also pick up someone like Zack Cozart for $1 or with your last pick in the draft. You would have little chance of losing more value than you'd lose by paying $20 for Andrus, and much more potential for profit.

ESPN

Of the three scenarios, ESPN comes the closest to getting this one right. Drafters at ESPN not only place a considerably lower value on Andrus than those at Yahoo!, they also place slightly higher value on Gordon and Aybar. A $15 bid or a sixth round draft selection is about right given Andrus' expected return value. If he happens to fall any lower than that, he actually starts becoming a bargain.

The prices for Gordon and Aybar are similar to what you can expect to pay in Yahoo!, and still represent better values than this price for Andrus, but its not nearly as cut-and-dry. There are worse things you can do in a draft than take Andrus in the sixth round, but if you can avoid pulling the trigger and he doesn't fall any lower than that, waiting on one of the other two is still perfectly acceptable.

CBS

In the CBS market, the scarcity at shortstop is unilateraly undervalued. Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes can often be found on draft boards into the third round while Starlin Castro is frequently lasting into the sixth and Andrus as late as the ninth. The stability Andrus offers at a difficult position to fill is worth considerably more than a ninth round pick, and while Gordon and Aybar are almost equally undervalued, the relative similarity doesn't necessarily mean equal value. This is especially true in a snake draft, where the deeper you get strategy naturally degenerates and instead tactics are emphasized.

Knowing where you've already invested your cost forces you to be more particular in how you proceed, whereas in auction, you simply take good values where and when you can at various cost levels throughout. If you select Elvis Andrus in the eighth round of a snake draft, that means you turn your attention to other areas in subsequent rounds.

On the other hand, if you get to the 14th round and you haven't filled the shortstop position, any pick you make that isn't a shortstop carries added risk that the remaining positive values at the position will be gone by the time it's your turn to select again. You're forced to concede precision in lieu of security during the later rounds, where during the earlier rounds there are still lots of avenues to success and you can be more flexible in adapting to the nebulous market of your own particular draft.

You can't go wrong with any of these guys at these prices, but if you project to make a similar amount of profit by selecting Andrus in the 8th or 9th round as compared to Aybar or Gordon in the 14th or 15th, there's added value in locking down the scarcer position earlier on with a low-risk asset, so Andrus becomes the slightly wiser choice.

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