The Hardball Times -- Matt Filippi http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-06-19T08:32:15+00:00 Ike Davis and comfort at the plate http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/ike-davis-and-comfort-at-the-plate/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/ike-davis-and-comfort-at-the-plate/#When:07:08:15
Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Matt Filippi 2013-06-04T07:08:15+00:00 The curious case of Vernon Wells http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-curious-case-of-vernon-wells/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-curious-case-of-vernon-wells/#When:17:43:15 All stats used in the article below are through Saturday, May 11

The Yankees came into the 2013 season looking much different than they had in recent years. They lost Nick Swisher, Russell Martin and Raul Ibanez to free agency. Those three combined to hit 64 of the team's 245 homers in 2012. Not to mention that sluggers Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira were going to start the year on the disabled list. The brass was forced to find temporary replacements, including Lyle Overbay at first, Eduardo Nunez and Jayson Nix at short, and Vernon Wells in the outfield.

The Yankees didn't acquire Wells until the very end of spring training, getting him and money from the Angels in exchange for two minor leaguers. The move seemed to get a big “LOL” reaction from people on Twitter, which seemed warranted. After all, a team that was in the American League Championship Series last October was now forced to run Vernon Wells out to left field every day. Wells, 34, had hit .222/.258/.409 over the last two seasons in LA and seemed to be on a decline that wasn't showing signs of ending. On top of that, New York was going to pay this man $13 million over two years.

However, there was a glimmer of hope for Yankees fans. First of all, Wells hit .333/.360/.644 in spring training, and while I don't like to put stock in spring numbers, it gave them optimistic something to hold onto. But then I came across a piece by MLB.com's Richard Justice about Wells and some mechanical adjustments he made during the offseason. Here's an excerpt from that article:

Wells studied hours of video to compare his swing from the last couple of seasons against his best seasons. He immediately saw the difference.

"You get caught up in hitting home runs and seeing how far you can hit 'em and your swing changes," Wells said Tuesday afternoon as he prepared to play his first spring training game for the Yankees.

And that was the focus of Wells' offseason. To shorten his swing. To hit the ball to right field. To stop worrying about home runs.


In the two videos below, you will see a single by Wells with the Angels in spring training 2012 and a home run he hit with the Yankees last week, respectively. Here you go:





In the first clip there is a lot of pre-swing movement and right before he does swing, there is a small, subtle hitch. That's probably what he was talking about when said he was trying to hit homers, since hitches are known to trade quickness to the baseball for power. In the second swing with New York, there is almost no pre-swing movement until the pitcher is about to throw the baseball and the hitch is basically gone.

Whatever he did seems to be working because he's hitting .281/.331/.500 (123 wRC+) through Saturday's action. Some of Wells' comments have come to life in the numbers also. In 2012 only five percent of his hits went to the opposite field while in 2013, he's gone the other way 14 percent of the time, according to FanGraphs. It may not seem like the biggest increase, but it's something. However, Wells has changed even more than this.

He is also being more aggressive at the dish. This year he is seeing only 3.39 pitches per plate appearance, as opposed to last year when he saw 3.64 pitches per plate appearance. This could be because he's swinging at about 12 percent more pitches that are in the strike zone than last year. As a trade off he's also swinging and missing four percent more than he did last season. Maybe he's seeing his pitch earlier in counts and just letting it rip instead of trying to be more passive. I found this really interesting because the Yankees as an organization always seem to preach patience at the plate.

Wells probably isn't going to keep this performance up, but ZiPS does have him posting a 103 wRC+ for the rest of the season, which is still above average and I'm sure the Bombers would be more than happy to get that. The thing is, New York just had to weather this early, injury-plagued stretch and Wells' hot start has helped the Yankees not only tread water, but actually stay near the top of the division. With Curtis Granderson due back in the next week or so, they will probably go to a four-man rotation in the outfield with Wells, Granderson, Brett Gardner, and Ichiro Suzuki. Wells has shown (so far) that he can be a legitimate option for them going forward, but if he does come crashing back down to earth (his 2011-2012 numbers), it won't hurt too much.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Matt Filippi 2013-05-12T17:43:15+00:00 Five questions: Tampa Bay Rays http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-tampa-bay-rays-2013/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-tampa-bay-rays-2013/#When:07:02:15 wRC+ in the majors and the best overall FIP.

That being said, the front office had a busy offseason with B.J. Upton becoming a free agent and James Shields becoming more expensive. So after these last few months of movement, here are some of the questions facing the team as we head into the 2013 season.

What is the rotation outlook after trading Shields?


In December, the Rays pulled off a shocking deal, sending Shields, Wade Davis and Elliot Johnson to the Royals for prospects Wil Myers, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi and Patrick Leonard. Though Tampa was applauded (as always) for getting a lot of young talent back for a relatively pricy Shields, a reliever, and a spare part, the deal did make the Rays weaker for the upcoming year.

Shields, 31, had a fantastic 2012 campaign, pitching to a 3.47 FIP across 227.2 innings. He was a nice bridge in the rotation between ace David Price and youngsters Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore. The Rays do have the depth to compensate for the loss with guys like Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, Jeff Niemann and Roberto Hernandez, and even though they should be good enough, the quality of the innings probably won't be as high. Of course, they still have a more experienced Hellickson and Moore, who both will have to take another step.

How far will Fernando Rodney regress?


The immediate reaction to this question is probably "very far." After all, Rodney, almost 36, had a career year, setting the record for lowest ERA ever posted by a relief pitcher (0.60) as the Rays closer. Before 2012, he had a career 4.29 ERA. Even if he had a career ERA that was relatively low, it would still be close to impossible for him to repeat this performance. However, there is reason to believe that Rodney's numbers weren't just a fluke.

First, one big reason why he was able to cut down the runs he allowed was because he reduced his walks. Heading into last year, he had issued almost five passes per nine innings over his career. In 2012, he dropped that down to just 1.81. One reason could be that he has moved where he stands on the rubber. RJ Anderson of Baseball Prospectus wrote about how Rodney has shifted all the way to the first base side of the rubber from the middle. As he points out, it was a radical shift, and it may have helped Rodney mechanically, at least a little bit.

So yes, there will be a decent amount of regression from Rodney, but maybe not as much as we think if this continues to work.

How will they replace Upton on offense?


This is really going to be the biggest question for Tampa. Upton posted a .323 wOBA and hit 28 homers last season despite getting on base at only a .298 clip. One thing the Rays will need to stay above water on offense is a healthy year from Evan Longoria. Longoria, who just received a huge 10-year extension, played in only 74 games last year, though he posted a .378 wOBA. A full season of the third baseman really would help soften the blow of losing Upton.

Desmond Jennings will be filling in for Upton in center field, and while he didn't have a great season overall in 2012, he had a very good second half (110 wRC+). He hit the disabled list with a knee injury, and his plate discipline seemed to take a step back, but he's still young (26) and obviously still can get better at picking the right pitches to hit.

I'm not sure the Rays can completely replace what Upton brought in the speed and power departments (and also on defense for that matter), but better years out of these two guys is a good start in trying.

What impact will Wil Myers have?


When the Shields/Myers deal went down, one of the first questions asked was whether Myers was going to start the season with Tampa or with Triple-A Durham. The consensus seems to be that the 22-year-old outfielder will start the year in Durham and will be called up at some point in the middle of the season for service time reasons.

Baseball America recently ranked Myers the No. 4 prospect in all of baseball, and he also was named the 2012 Minor League Player of the Year by the publication. These honors were well deserved: He hit .314/.387/.600 with 37 homers between Double-A and Triple-A. Though strikeouts are a slight concern, he did whiff less frequently as the season went on, even with the level change.

As stated above, the trade made the Rays weaker for the upcoming year, but it also made them stronger for the long term by adding a young, cost-controlled, and potentially powerful bat to their lineup. Myers may not play a big role now, but he could be a nice shot in the arm down the stretch and beyond.

How do they stack up in the American League East?


The already strong AL East seemingly has gotten stronger over the past few months.

Starting north of the border, the Blue Jays added some impact ploayers via a couple of trades. They acquired starting pitchers R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, along with shortstop Jose Reyes and utility man Emilio Bonifacio. With all that and the signing of Melky Cabrera, Toronto looks ready to contend and appears to be an early favorite to win the division.

The other bottom-feeder of the division in 2012, the Red Sox, got better as well. They added Shane Victorino, a damaged Mike Napoli, and other miscellaneous pieces to their offense and Ryan Dempster and Joel Hanrahan to their pitching staff. They very easily could be right back in contention.

Despite losing Nick Swisher and Russell Martin to free agency and suffering some injuries to key players before the season has even started, the Yankees are coming off a 95-win campaign and are always a bet to be right in the thick of things come September. They maintained the status quo with their pitching (Rafael Soriano being the exception) by retaining Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, and Mariano Rivera and added Kevin Youkilis and a healthy Brett Gardner on offense.

Finally, the Orioles didn't do much this winter, but as we saw last year, we can't count them out despite a shaky rotation.

There's a lot of upside in this division, but there's also a lot question marks. The Rays are not blown away by any team on paper here and could win the division, take a Wild Card, or even miss the playoffs altogether again; there's just so much uncertainty all around. However, barring big injuries, this team should be right in the thick of things throughout the year.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Matt Filippi 2013-03-11T07:02:15+00:00 Non-roster players with a chance to contribute http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/nris-with-a-chance-to-contribute/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/nris-with-a-chance-to-contribute/#When:07:01:15 B.J. and Justin, were on the move to Atlanta, Josh Hamilton signed with the Angels, R.A. Dickey was dealt to the Blue Jays, and Zack Greinke went to the Dodgers. But often overlooked are the small, minor league contracts that teams dish out to players.

A team might give this type of deal to a reclamation project—someone who has succeeded in the past, a player who is flawed but could be useful, or maybe just someone they want to stash in Triple-A as organizational depth. In any case, players every year surprise everyone and not only wind up making their respective teams, but make a decent-sized contribution. Let's go over some of those who have a chance to do this in 2013.

Freddy Garcia, SP, Padres — Garcia performed his way out of a major league deal with the Yankees last year, pitching to a 5.20 ERA (4.68 FIP) across 107.1 innings between the rotation and the bullpen. However, the veteran right-hander was a different pitcher once the calendar turned from April to May posting a 4.13 ERA over 93.2 innings and limiting opponents to a .246/.307/.411 slash line. Garcia also had very good peripherals with a 19.3 strikeout percentage and only a 7.3 walk percentage, but he gave up too many homers.

With a 15.8 percent homer-per-fly ball percentage in 2012, one would have to expect some regression, but pitching half of his games at Petco Park and getting out of Yankee Stadium should help, also. Garcia's not going to overpower anyone like he did 10 or so years ago, but he still can get people out, and with the help of a bigger home park and one fewer real hitter to face, he could find some success.

Juan Rivera/Matt Diaz, OF, Yankees — Rivera and Diaz were brought, in along with Thomas Neal, to compete for the fourth outfielder/lefty-masher job during camp, but things have become a bit more complicated. In the second game of the spring, Curtis Granderson was hit on the arm by a J.A. Happ breaking ball and suffered a broken right forearm. This gives both guys a chance to fight for a starting outfield corner job, at least for the first month of the season.

The two are very similar players. They're the same age (turning 35 this year), have the same skill set, had similar seasons in 2012, and haven't done anything of note since 2010. This being said, things are going to come down to whose bat looks better in camp, and to a lesser extent, who looks like less of a pumpkin in the outfield. (I believe the Yanks would want more offense to at least try to mitigate Granderson's absence.)

Either could have an impact, since they've both shown pop in the past, but only one is likely to make the team, with the fourth outfielder being a defensive caddy like Melky Mesa. This is barring general manager Brian Cashman making a trade before Opening Day.

Lyle Overbay, 1B, Red Sox — After Boston traded Adrian Gonzalez to the Dodgers last year, the Red Sox didn't get much out of their first basemen. The position was split between James Loney (50 wRC+ in that time) and Mauro Gonzalez (87 wRC+), leaving a lot to be desired. GM Ben Cherington tried to improve that spot this winter by getting Mike Napoli. The two sides agreed to a three-year deal at first, but after a physical revealed a severe problem with Napoli's hip, the contract got downgraded to one year worth $5 million.

This is where Overbay comes in. He will be fighting with Mike Carp to be a lefty off the bench/Napoli caddy. He did hit well in limited time with Arizona in 2012 before spending September with Atlanta, but he's still not everyday guy. However, he does have some value in that he hit just about league average (97 wRC+) against right-handed pitching last year, which could be enough to get him a part-time job.

Scott Atchison, RP, Mets — The Mets have done a good job this winter of stockpiling low-cost bullpen pitchers like LaTroy Hawkins and Aaron Laffey, along with Atchison. What separates Atchison from most other minor league free agent signees is that he had a really good 2012.

In 51.1 innings, he pitched to a 1.58 ERA (2.72 FIP) and a 55.3 groundball percentage This was his first standout year, but he still has been solid during the last three years with a 3.54 FIP in that time. However, he was non-tendered by Boston after he experienced some pain in his right arm.

In 2009, it was revealed that he had a tear in his right elbow, but he pitched through it without any pain until this past season. These complications scared the Red Sox off, but the Mets decided to take a flyer. There's not much of a chance that he repeats his 2012 production, but he can provide some quality middle-relief innings to a bullpen that desperately needs them.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Matt Filippi 2013-03-04T07:01:15+00:00 Bourn finds a home, Lohse still waits http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/bourn-finds-a-home-lohse-still-awaits/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/bourn-finds-a-home-lohse-still-awaits/#When:08:21:15
Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Matt Filippi 2013-02-12T08:21:15+00:00 The NL East: Three big surprises http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-state-of-the-nl-east-a-final-look/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-state-of-the-nl-east-a-final-look/#When:07:38:15
So this is it. We’re coming down to the final month and our final division report and it’s been fun to see how things have turned out not according to plan, with the young Nationals emerging as the best team in the division, the Phillies falling off earlier than expected, and the Marlins' winter spending going to waste. Let’s take a closer look.

Marlins


To say that this season hasn’t gone as planned for the Marlins is an understatement. A new manager, a new stadium, and a few new players were supposed to help turn the culture of the team around and put the Marlins back on the map. Instead, they are sitting in the cellar of the NL East and have started to sell. Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate are now in Los Angeles, Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez are in Detroit and Gaby Sanchez in Pittsburgh.

Going forward, they have Jose Reyes, Logan Morrison, Emilio Bonafacio, Giancarlo Stanton and Mark Buehrle. That’s a good core to build around, but they need to spend smartly if they want to be in the discussion next year for a playoff spot. Also, the prospects they acquired, like Jacob Turner and Zack Cox, would have to step up.

It wouldn’t be impossible for this team to contend in 2013, but it’s going to take a smart winter and some luck.

Mets


The last time I wrote one of these, the Mets were struggling out of the All-Star break, but were still kind of hanging around in the Wild Card race. We’re now in early September and all playoff hopes have vanished. The team has free fallen through the end of July and August. Even though hope is gone, it was fun for Mets fans while it lasted.

One bright spot has been Matt Harvey, who made his big league debut back in July and has pitched to a 3.06 FIP over 42.1 innings and seven starts. With him, young gun Zack Wheeler down in Triple-A and Jon Niese extended, New York has a nice core of starters for the future. The Mets will probably try to extend David Wright over the winter and keep him long term. Despite a big drop-off in the second half, the team has direction, which is always good, but is still another year or two from really competing.

Phillies


The Phils have been able to work themselves back up to third place and only five games below .500. This does have to do with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley coming back from injury; Howard has been an above average player (106 wRC+) and Utley has produced a .348 wOBA. They had given up on playoff hopes before then, trading Hunter Pence to the Giants, Shane Victorino to the Dodgers, and Jim Thome to the Orioles.

The future is a little foggy because they still have a lot of big contracts going forward and not much of a farm. With a full a season of healthy Howard and Utley, they could find themselves at least competing throughout the season. The problem is that there isn’t much depth here, so injuries could really hurt them.

What you see is what you get; there’s not going to be much spending in the near future. Fans have to hope for health and some players (cough, Domonic Brown) have to step up.

Braves


The Braves have probably been the only team that has lived up to expectations. Many,including me, thought they would be the second best team in the division, and they’ve done exactly that while being on top of the Wild Card. They’ve gotten some consistent starting pitching from Tim Hudson and Mike Minor since June, while Kris Medlan has been fantastic since he joined the staff. The offense has also been solid along with Craig Kimbrel in the back of the pen. They haven’t been playing great baseball of late, but I still see them winning a playoff spot.

They have a nice core of young talent in Mike Minor, Medlan, Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann, so they should be able to stay near the top of the division and be playoff contenders for the next few years if they continue to put good pieces around them.


Nationals


Everyone seemed to think that the Nationals were a year a way from being a great team and that they had a decent shot at a Wild Card, but they’ve burst on to the scene in 2012 with the best record in the majors. They’ve had stellar pitching from Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez, while Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler have held down the back end just fine. Offensively, Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche have all been very good, while Bryce Harper, at the age of 19, has been an above-average offensive player (105 wRC+).

The big story line surrounding this team continues to be the shutting down of Strasburg. This is his first full season back from Tommy John surgery so the Nats don’t want to push him too hard and have him get injured again. He will be shut down after his start on Sept. 12 and will not pitch in the playoffs.

On one hand, I can see why people don’t think this is a good idea since the Nats may not have another shot at the World Series any time soon, but I definitely get it. Strasburg is this team’s future and there’s clearly something to this 160-180 innings limit for pitchers coming off this surgery. Washington did the same thing with Zimmermann and he’s been great this year, and the Braves are currently doing a similar thing with Medlan.

Part of the reason why I like it is because I feel this team is built to last. The Nationals have a lot of young talent is under control for the next few years and even if they don’t win it this year, I think they can be a World Series contender in the coming years. Also, Zimmerman, Gonzalez and Jackson make a very good trio for a playoff rotation. It’s not like you’d be replacing him with a replacement level pitcher.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Matt Filippi 2012-09-04T07:38:15+00:00 The state of the NL East: July update http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-state-of-the-nl-east-july-update/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-state-of-the-nl-east-july-update/#When:09:08:15

This was supposed to be a four-dog race, but so far it’s been mostly the Nationals in charge with a few other scattered headlines, mostly about not living up to expectations. It’s been a crazy year, making it tons of fun, and you can’t help but look forward to the ending.


Philadelphia Phillies (42-54 with 0.5% playoff odds)


The biggest question surrounding the Phillies at this point is whether they will buy or sell at the trade deadline. They sit in fifth place in the National League East and 14 games back and 10-1/2 back of the second wild card spot. They have recently gotten healthy but haven’t been able to improve much since Chase Utley and Ryan Howard returned. So where do they go from here?

Well, Howard has been solid since his return, posting a .381 wOBA, but he’s only had 35 plate appearances, which is not many to judge him by. Utley, on the other hand, hasn’t been great, with only a .279 wOBA to his name. The Phils have been waiting all year for these guys, and it’s about time for them to come through and get them back in the race.

Carlos Ruiz continues to absolutely rake, posting a 166 wRC+, and Hunter Pence (116) has certainly stepped things up since the beginning of the season while Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins have been right around average (96 each). If you couple these guys together for a longer period of time and Utley starts to hit, we could see a change in tides.

The starting pitching has been what you would expect. Of course, not having Roy Halladay hurt, but they held up pitching to a 3.99/3.67/3.47 ERA/FIP/xFIP line while logging the most innings (614) of any starting rotation in the majors. Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Vance Worley have all been great while Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton have been mediocre, holding their own as back-end guys.

With the players they are getting back on the field and 39 of their remaining 66 games against division opponents, you have to think they have a shot at coming back. Crazier things have happened.


Miami Marlins (44-51 with 0.6% playoff odds)


The Marlins were surrounded by great expectations heading into the year, but it just seems like no one has lived up. They had a new city, new uniforms, a new manager, and a bunch of new players, but it hasn’t clicked.

On offense, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, and Logan Morrison have been mediocre, and according to wRC+, the only one who has been above average is Ramirez. Gaby Sanchez has been demoted to Triple-A and their best hitter, Giancarlo Stanton, just landed on the disabled list due to knee surgery. It’s been a rough year, and if you had Justin Ruggiano as one of the bright spots, put your hand in the air. (Don’t you dare.)

The rotation has been only okay with Anibal Sanchez and Mark Buehrle being the only starters with ERAs under four. The good news is that they’ve all stayed healthy. One of the bigger offseason acquisitions, Heath Bell, has lost his closer’s role thanks to an ERA above six in 44 appearances. Randy Choate and Steve Cishek have been solid, at least.

There are no big moves the Marlins can make; they just need to wait things out and hope the current guys can make a comeback, which certainly is possible.


New York Mets (47-48 with 12.6% playoff odds)


The fact that the Mets have found themselves in a position to be buyers is actually pretty funny, and it's one of the reasons we all love baseball. Everyone wrote them off as the punching bag of this division, yet they have stayed right in the thick of things through almost 100 games. However, there is a bit of a cause for concern.

The Mets' starting pitching has been very good, pitching to a 3.76 FIP as a unit. R.A. Dickey has, of course, led the way with his 2.72 ERA while striking out almost a batter per inning. However, he hasn’t pitching as well of late; there was no way he was going to continue pitching the way he was. With this being said, and the fact that other effective starters Johan Santana and Dillon Gee have gone on the disabled list, a lack of starting pitching depth has been exposed.

The bullpen has also been just awful with closer Frank Francisco on the shelf. They don’t have that one go-to guy who can shut things down. Tim Byrdak is a fine LOOGY, and Ramon Ramirez, Bobby Parnell, and Jon Rauch are decent pieces, but you can’t rely on them like the Mets have to. If they’re serious about contending, they need to find some bullpen help and fast because it’s already cost them a few games out of the break.

The offense has been what has carried the Mets, and it will have to continue to do so. David Wright continues to be a monster with a .422 wOBA and a 171 wRC+ while Ruben Tejada and Daniel Murphy have been solid everyday bats, as well. Ike Davis has picked it up since a horrendous start and now has 14 dingers while Jordany Valdespin has been quite the spark plug off the bench with four pinch-hit homers.

The question here is whether the pitching can hold up. The rotation’s lack of depth is starting to be exposed, and New York needs major help in the pen. If Sandy Alderson can find a market for these things, maybe he’ll patch up the holes and keep them in the mix.


Atlanta Braves (52-43 with 52% playoff odds)


I thought the Braves were the most solid team in this division during spring training, and solid they certainly have been, due in large part to their offense. Their pitching has been good, too, but it’s really been their hitters who have carried them.

The Atlanta outfield has really been the key to success as Michael Bourn, Martin Prado, and Jason Heyward all have wRC tallies over 120. Chipper Jones also has been quite the story in his last season in baseball, posting a .388 wOBA. Freddie Freeman (.346), Brian McCann (.324), and Dan Uggla (.323) have all been good contributors, too.

On the pitching side of things, the guy to look out for is Ben Sheets. This bullpen is very good, as we all know, and the rotation has been solid, but Sheets was picked up off the scrap heap and has been terrific in his first couple of starts. If he can continue throwing the ball well and be a viable middle-to-back-of-the-rotation guy, he could be one of the best midseason free agent pickups of the year.

They may not catch the Nats, but the Braves have been a good team all around, and you gotta expect them to be in play for at least the second wild card.


Washington Nationals (55-39 with 85.7% playoff odds)


I had the Nationals pegged as a second wild card team coming into the year because I figured they were still young and another year or two from being the dominant team in this division, but it looks like I may have been wrong.

The starting rotation has continued to carry them, pitching to a 3.37 FIP, good for the best in the majors. Stephen Strasburg has been the unquestioned ace, striking out more than eleven per nine innings and keeping his ERA below three. Jordan Zimmermann also has been fantastic despite not missing a ton of bats, while Gio Gonzalez has fallen off after a hot first 10 starts. Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler have done a great job rounding things out, too. Combining this with a solid pen (3.63 FIP), they’ve been very tough to beat on this side of the ball.

On offense, they’ve also been strong. Ryan Zimmerman (.333 wOBA) and Adam LaRouche (.341) have been heating up recently, as has Michael Morse since he came of the disabled list. Roger Bernadina has been performing well after stepping in for the injured Jayson Werth. They’ve been getting some type of production from everywhere, even with a slumping Bryce Harper. If Washington gets Werth and Ian Desmond back when they’re supposed to, the Nats will be set for the stretch.

This team just needs to keep playing the way they have and get those two guys healthy. There’s been a lot of inconsistency in this division, so if the Nationals can catch fire, they could run away with it.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Matt Filippi 2012-07-23T09:08:15+00:00 The NL East: Mets are the big surprise http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-state-of-the-nl-east-june-edition/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-state-of-the-nl-east-june-edition/#When:06:43:15
We all knew that the National League East would be a tough division from the start of spring training, and so far this has held true. Everyone expected a four-horse race amomg Phillies, Braves, Nationals and Marlins, but that hasn’t really been the case.

In my last report, I talked about the Mets' hot start being fluky, about the Marlins' cold streak being a little bit expected, and about how the Phillies were going to have to wake up offensively if they were going to be in the thick of things come September. This all being said, the division was up for grabs for all teams, and as we head into trade season, this still holds true.


Philadelphia Phillies (29-33)


Despite still not having Chase Utley and Ryan Howard back, the Phillies have managed to be a middle-of-the-pack offense. They have posted a 95 wRC+ and a .316 wOBA, which while not great, are better than expected with their lineup. Carlos Ruiz continues to be their biggest bat (.411 wOBA) while Shane Victorino (.333) and Ty Wigginton (.332) continue to be solid contributors. Also, since the last time I’ve written, Hunter Pence has picked up putting above average numbers up (124 wRC+). Jimmy Rollins (.288) is going to have to step things up, though.

On the mound, the Phillies have been as solid as expected. Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels have both pitched to ERAs below three (2.92 and 2.93, respectively). Vance Worley (3.84 FIP) has been a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy while Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick are holding down the fort on the back end. Roy Halladay’s shoulder injury, however, is hurting them quite a bit; not having that almost definite quality start every fifth day is a big loss. In the pen, it’s been all Jonathan Papelbon and Antonio Bastardo. They have both been as good as expected, but the Phillies need some others to help.

The Phils obviously have some talent both at the plate and on the mound, but it looks like they’ll need a little more to climb above the four teams above them. They’re going to need Utley, Howard, and Halladay back before they can start making up some serious ground.


Miami Marlins (31-29)


Despite the controversy surrounding Ozzie Guillen and the rough start, the Marlins find themselves only five games out of first place. Their offense hasn’t exactly been great, but Hanley Ramirez (.353 wOBA) and Giancarlo Stanton (.403) have been carrying the lineup. Omar Infante (120 wRC+) and Jose Reyes (103) have both been solid also, but you have to expect a little more out of the latter. Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez have both been disappointments, and Sanchez was actually demoted to Triple-A.

The starting pitching has been decent, led by Anibal Sanchez (2.90 FIP). Carlos Zambrano and Mark Buehrle have both pitched to ERAs below four, and while his FIP sits at 2.90, Josh Johnson is giving up quite a few runs (4.56 ERA). The pen has only been okay; Randy Choate and Steve Cishek have been solid setting up, and Heath Bell has gotten better as the closer. He’s down to a 4.23 FIP.

The expectations were high for this team and so far they’ve been up and down. They’re going to need Morrison and the newly re-called Sanchez to step up on offense while Johnson and most of the pen need to get it going on the bump. I think they’ll be around this spot in the standings by the next time I report in July.

New York Mets (32-29)


The Mets may be the biggest surprise of the year. A lot of people expected them to be historically bad in 2012; I thought they could pull out a solid 75 wins. So far they have proved everyone wrong behind an all-around solid team. Their offense is led by David Wright and his ridiculous .434 wOBA. Lucas Duda (.349 wOBA) and Kirk Nieuwenhuis (.328) have been solid in the outfield corners, while guys like Scott Hairston (eight homers) have helped off the bench. Ike Davis and Jason Bay (yet again) have been very disappointing.

In the rotation, R.A. Dickey, Johan Santana and Dillon Gee all have FIPs in the threes. Dickey especially has been dominating, with a K:BB ratio greater than 4:1. Jon Niese has been solid too, although homers have hurt him and Jeremy Hefner has been hanging in there. In the back end, Tim Byrdak, Bobby Parnell, and Miguel Batista have been pretty good. Frank Francisco has been very streaky even though he has 15 saves while Ramon Ramirez has a good FIP despite a rough ERA.

The Mets have overachieved in almost every way and even had a share of first place last week. But since then, they have lost six of seven and you have to think that they may be coming down to earth.


Atlanta Braves (34-26)


The Braves are kind of the forgotten team in this division and, I think, underrated. They’ve been getting great production from their lineup as Michael Bourn, Martin Prado, Dan Uggla, and Jayson Heyward all have wOBAs over .335. Although the power is there, Freddie Freeman has been struggling a little bit (.299 OBP) and Brian McCann hasn’t been his usual self, hitting only .240.

In their starting rotation, Brandon Beachy has been unbelievable, with an ERA below two, while Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Randall Delgado have all been pretty good. Mike Minor and Jair Jurrjens’ struggles have not helped, however. In the bullpen, Craig Kimbrel has been his great self while Cristhian Martinez, Livan Hernandez, Kris Medlan and Jonny Venters have all been solid.

The Braves have been pretty solid all around, but they need McCann and Freeman to step up a little bit if they want to surpass Washington. The talent is obviously here, as it was last year, and with the extra wild card, they should make the playoffs somehow.

Washington Nationals (35-23)


The Nationals have been an exciting team to watch because of their youth and explosiveness. On offense, Bryce Harper has exploded on to the scene since being called up (.377 wOBA). Adam LaRoche and Steve Lombardozzi have also been solid pieces in the lineup since Ian Desmond and Danny Espinoza have struggled and Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman have battled injuries.

On the mound is really where this team has excelled. Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Edwin Jackson all have ERAs and FIPs below four and have formed a formidable rotation in the early going while Ross Detwiler has been great as a fifth starter. In the bullpen, Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett and Craig Stammen have locked down games in the late innings.

The pitching has been there for the Nats, but if they can get Desmond, Zimmerman and Espinoza going and Werth back playing the way he was before his injury, they could easily take this division. It’s an odd thought, but it’s true.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Matt Filippi 2012-06-11T06:43:15+00:00 The State of the NL East http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-state-of-the-nl-east/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-state-of-the-nl-east/#When:07:08:15

Heading into this season, the most interesting division in baseball was going to be the National League East. There was a lot of movement to this division with Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson going to Washington and Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell heading to Miami. With this, we may see a four-team race for much of the year. And with the extra wild card now in place, we should expect another fun ending to this season.

The Phillies are hoping to keep their dominance up and win their sixth straight division title to prove their age hasn’t caught up with them yet. The Braves are trying to rebound from an awful collapse behind their young and plentiful pitching. The Marlins, with a new name, a new stadium, and new uniforms, are attempting to turn around their franchise, especially with the signings of Reyes and Buehrle.

Miami Marlins


With their new acquisitions and a new manager, the Marlins were seen by many as a legitimate contender to make the playoffs this year. They’ve struggled in the early-going and gotten off to a cold start at 8-12. Part of that has to with their hitting, which ranks in the bottom half of the National League in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, and runs scored.

The problem is that some of their bigger bats haven’t warmed up yet. Reyes and Hanley Ramirez have on-base percentages under .315, and Giancarlo Stanton and Gaby Sanchez are both slugging under .400. Meanwhile, Emilio Bonifacio and Logan Morrison have been their most consistent hitters.

The starting pitching, on the other hand, has been very good. They are in the top half of the NL in ERA, FIP, and innings pitched. Josh Johnson is actually the only starter with an ERA above 4.. (4.63 before Sunday's meltdown), but Anibal Sanchez has been one of the guys who’s picked up the slack, as he’s struck out 33 batters in his 26.1 innings. We knew they would have a strong rotation, and it has certainly lived up to its billing through a month of play.

The Miami pen has been a mixed bag. They are in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, walks, and FIP. Their middle-relief corps has been pretty good, starting with Ryan Webb, Steve Cishek, and Randy Choate, but the back end has been pretty weak. Heath Bell already has three losses and an ERA close to 10. I expect the pen to turn it around, but it’s a little bit discerning.

Once their bats start to heat up, I think they’ll take off and be near the top of the division.

Philadelphia Phillies


Ryan Howard and Chase Utley were out to start the season, so the Phillies pitching was going to have to really carry them early on, and so far they have. Their starters are in the top half of the NL in strikeouts, walks, innings pitched, ERA, and FIP. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Vance Worley have all been sensational while Joe Blanton has been a very viable No. 5 starter. Everything has gone according to plan here so far.

The new bullpen has been okay too (3.74 FIP), led by new closer Jonathan Papelbon, who has been perfect in save opportunities and has allowed only one run. However, besides Chad Qualls, almost everyone else has struggled.

With Howard and Utley out, the Phils were going to rely heavily on Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino, and Carlos Ruiz to produce offensively. The only one who has is Ruiz, who has an .858 OPS, although Ty Wiggington (.844 OPS) and Laynce Nix (.943 OPS) have been big surprises and are helping the team tread water.

The team just needs to stay in it until the two big bats get back. The pitching needs keep it up, and Pence starting to hit would help a lot.

New York Mets


The Mets have been arguably the most surprising team of the young season. They stand at 13-9 and in third place in the division. Expectations were just about as low as they could be with the combination of still rebuilding and the overall improvement of the division, but so far they’ve been proving everyone wrong who thought they were going to be historically bad (not that it means much since we’re only a month in).

Offensively, David Wright has been leading the way, hitting to a .385/.481/.569 slash line. He’s followed by Josh Thole (.851 OPS), David Murphy (.310 AVG), and Captain Kirk Nieuwenhuis (.829 OPS). Nieuwenhuis was the first of many call-ups we're sure to see. Jordany Valdespin has also gotten a look because of the injured Jason Bay, as has Zach Lutz.

The pitching has been decent with a rotation led by Johan Santanana and his surgically replaced shoulder. He’s been a pleasant surprise, striking out 29 and walking 11 over 24 frames. They did lose Mike Pelfrey to Tommy John surgery, but Jonathon Niese and R.A. Dickey have also been pretty solid. Despite signing Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch this off-season, the bullpen has been sub-par. Manny Acosta, Miguel Batista, Francisco, and Ramon Ramirez all have ERAs over three.

The Mets have surprised many and are right in the middle of things, but we’ll see how long it lasts.

Atlanta Braves


After a horrible collapse last season in which they lost out on the playoffs on the last day of season, the Braves have gotten off to a nice start. They did lose their first four, but since then have won fourteen of eighteen. Atlanta has had a very nice balanced team on both offense and the mound.

Even though Jair Jurrjens had to be sent Triple-A due to ineffectiveness, they’ve still been able to get by due to their depth. Brandon Beachy has been superb, pitching to a 1.05 ERA over four starts and 25.2 innings. Tommy Hanson and Mike Minor have also been very good, and they just got Tim Hudson back from injury. In the pen, Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters have picked up from where they left off last season, allowing only two runs between them in 17.2 frames.

The lineup has also been very good, too, with Michael Bourn and Chipper Jones both wOBAing (yep, that’s the verb form) over .355 and Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, and Dan Uggla each adding OBPs above .340. You’d also have to think, even though they have gotten off to tough starts, Brian McCann and Freddie Freeman will pick it up at some point.

A solid roster has gotten off to a solid start and will be very much in the thick of things throughout the summer barring injuries.

Washington Nationals


The Nats are off to a great beginning thanks to their re-vamped pitching staff. Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez have pitched to sub-2.00 FIPs, while Jordan Zimmermann and Edwin Jackson have kept theirs below three. Ross Detwiler has also been an effective fifth starter, pitching to a 1.64 ERA and striking out 19 and walking just six over 22 frames. One through five, they have been as strong as anyone.

Ryan Zimmerman was just placed on the disabled list, although he may not be missed as much since his slash line only sits at .224/.324/.345 with one homer. Adam LaRoche (.964 OPS) and Jayson Werth (.806 OPS) have been a spark, though, as guys like Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, and Wilson Ramos have yet to heat up. Also, Bryce Harper has just been called up. The 19 year old will try to provide a jolt playing every day in the outfield.

With an exciting offseason and lots of young talent, this may be the year they put it together and make a legitimate run at the division title. So far it looks like they could.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Matt Filippi 2012-04-30T07:08:15+00:00 Happy Retention Bonus Day! http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/happy-retention-bonus-day/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/happy-retention-bonus-day/#When:06:33:15
Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Matt Filippi 2012-03-30T06:33:15+00:00