The Hardball Times -- Matt Himelfarb http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-06-19T08:32:15+00:00 A Bird in development http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/in-development/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/in-development/#When:08:51:15 Matt Hobgood, it is a matter of when, not if.

When he regains the fastball velocity that endeared him to scouts and persuaded the Orioles to make him the fourth overall selection in last year's draft, he will start striking hitters out. When he loses the weight that evokes Sidney Ponson comparisons among Orioles fans, and probably contributed to the nagging injuries that have plagued him the entire season, he will be as dominant as ever. When he learns to command the strike zone, grind through an entire season, and throw his change-up for strikes, well, you get the idea.

Despite a pedestrian 4.84 era. and striking out just 5.72 batters while walking 3.89 per nine innings, Hobgood is convinced it’s all going to come together at some point. If anything positive can be gleamed from a season that even Delmarva's pitching coach, Troy Mattes, characterized as "disappointing," the 20 year-old's foundation has hardly been shaken.

"I know I was drafted where I was drafted," he says. "People say I was an overdraft, blah blah, blah. Joe Jordan gets a lot of heat for drafting me. People are going to realize why I was drafted where I was drafted. Sometimes it takes a little longer for people to figure things out.

"Everyone is making their assumptions now, but I think it's a little bit early. You look at Ubaldo Jimenez right now, he's got what, 17, 18 wins? I heard he was like 4-11, or something terrible when he was in A-Ball."

Hobgood has certainly prevailed through far worse. In eighth grade, his dad died of colon cancer. Before his freshman year, Hobgood, his mom, and three younger sisters, now 18, 16 and 14, moved to a different part of Norco, Calif.

"It was rough. But I think everything happens for a reason. It's helped make me stronger as a person. It's a pretty bad loss, but I think he would want me to move on. God's taken something away from me, but he's also blessed me."

He soon became best friends with his new neighbor, D.J. Wood, who got Hobgood to start playing football. Wood's dad, a former college baseball player, as well his high school baseball coach, Gary Parcell, reinforced the straight and narrow path Hobgood was set on, serving as immediate mentors.

Four years later, after leading Norco on the mound and as a power hitting first baseman to the state semifinals his junior year, and the quarterfinals his senior year, Hobgood was a projected first-round talent. The Royals (12th overall), Rangers (14th), and the Blue Jays (20th), all displayed strong interest, with the Angels promising he would not get past their 25th pick. Less than an hour before the draft, the Orioles informed Hobgood that if Dustin Ackley—who went second overall to the Mariners—was not available, they would select him, which they did. Analysts derided the selection as a reach, and Hobgood set out to prove the naysayers wrong.

He signed in time to make eight starts for Bluefield in the Appalachian League, with middling results: 4.73 ERA. 26.2 innings pitched, 16 strikeouts and eight walks. His velocity dipped, his curveball lacked bite, his command suffered, and lacking even a show-me caliber change-up, he proved vulnerable versus lefties.

Most people gave him a mulligan. Following a long high school season, and after making the adjustment from pitching once a week to every five days, Hobgood was understandably tired.

Yet the same problems have mostly persisted into 2010. Hobgood throws both a four-seamer and two-seamer, his two-seamer usually a tad slower. In high school, he was typically clocked in the 91-94 mph range, topping 95-96 at times. On a good day now, both pitches sit around 89-91.

Meanwhile, his feel for his change-up, a non-existent weapon in high school, has improved markedly throughout the season, sitting at 81-84 mph, running away from lefties and running in on righties. Some scouts characterize it as akin to a split-change, although no one is quite sure what he is throwing. "We spent a lot of time last year and this year trying to find a grip that’s comfortable for him, finding some confidence and knowing how and when to use it," Mattes says. "It’s got a bit of an awkward grip, but it works well for him."

"Once I get the velocity back, there will be a 10-mile-per-hour difference," Hobgood contends. "It will only get better. It’s pretty good right now. It’s got good movement. It looks like a fastball. That's all you really need. You don't need a Johan Santana change-up or something nasty. It’s just about keeping the hitter off balance."

His high 70s curve continues to flash plus-potential, but like his change-up, lacks consistency from start to start. Hobgood uses his four-seamer to set up his curveball, working up and down in the zone by elevating his four-seamer at times. As his professional career has progressed, however, he has developed an affinity for his sinker, which tends to bore down and in on right handers.

Hobgood's struggles largely stem from underlying mechanical issues. He routinely fails to repeat his delivery, and his front side has a tendency to fly open early. Consistency with his release point is also a recurring issue. The Orioles have worked with Hobgood on throwing more over-the-top consistently, but he is prone to dropping his arm slot, particularly on his fastball. Hitters at this level usually are not good enough to detect this, but Hobgood's velocity and command have likely suffered as a result.

"It depends if his arm is catching up to his body or if he's trying to do much with his lower half or his front side, then his arm tends to drag and have a little lower arm slot," Mattes says. "When he does a good job catching up with his body everything stays high three quarters and has good life to it."

Watching Hobgood throw, people see glimpses of what scouts saw in high school. They see the life in his arm. When his velocity is not hibernating under some mechanical kink, it has touched 94 mph this season. Both of his fastballs have natural movement that makes scouts drool.

Hobgood is not the first high school pitcher used to pitching off pure stuff despite unrefined mechanics. Most 19-year-old pitchers have trouble locating their pitches and issue too many walks. They work down the middle or on the inner third of the plate, before they earn the right to touch the corners. Their arm and body is not yet equipped for the duration of a six-month season.

Yet a $2.42 million dollar signing bonus, coupled with the Orioles bypassing the likes of Tyler Matzek, Shelby Miller, Zach Wheeler and Mike Leake, warrants a different set of expectations. To add insult to injury, the 6-foot-4 Hobgood, who weighed 245-250 pounds when he was drafted, ballooned to 270 by spring training. The increase was partly in muscle, but also in fat. He declined to say how much he weighs at the moment, but added that he was not where he "needed to be."

The typical pre- and post-game spread does not help matters, particularly on the road (In Lakewood, for instance, hot dogs, oatmeal creme pies, and potato chips highlight the typical entree). Hobgood's main focus is educating himself on nutrition, even when dealing with limited choices.

"I'm not trying to lose five pounds a week or something ridiculous," he says. "That's lame. It’s all about eating good. I can go run, but if I eat bad there’s no point. I do the same as every other pitcher. I try not to do much extra, because your body gets broken down enough. Things are different this year, and they'll continue to be different as I get older.

"All you’re trying to do is train your body and letting your talent and work ethic take you as far as you can. It takes getting used to. Everyone's got their problems, whether it’s drinking too much or overeating. I'm not a party guy, at least."

Hobgood's weight has become the first resort of criticism for some. It’s a gross oversimplification, but Hobgood has been sidelined for short stints at a time, including missing three weeks in June, in addition to having extra days between starts on numerous occasions, dealing with small, nagging injuries, most recently a back issue. Thus, it’s hard not to point to his conditioning as the culprit.

Through the organization and his agent, Hobgood has reached out to the likes of Brian Matusz and Josh Johnson, regarding both pitching and their workout routines.

"I expect more than what he's given right now," Mattes admits. "I think next year, with a full season under his belt, he'll know what to expect. He'll know what he needs to do to be prepared mentally and physically for the season. That's typical of young guys. A lot of guys have a hard time addressing the throwing program or the lifting program, until they know exactly what their season entails. You trust your strength department and pitching department to have the proper throwing and workout program."

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Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Matt Himelfarb 2010-07-30T05:26:15+00:00 Struggle and success http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/struggle-and-success/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/struggle-and-success/#When:05:04:15
Just my second time in a minor league clubhouse, I was confronted by the same quandary faced by any other media personnel who ever set foot in the Lakewood (N.J.) Blueclaws' locker room. The question that would send diversity ideologues and college professors across the country spinning—and probably my short-lived journalism career down the tubes as well.

Why are lunch and dinner segregated?

"This right here is the dividing line," exclaims Anthony Hewitt, doing his best Cornel West impression, slapping the white column separating the long, rectangular table of white players from the smaller round table, which this year hosts Hewitt, Jon Singleton and Jiwan James.

The dichotomy is long part of Blueclaws folklore. Last season, Anthony Gose and Jeremy Hamilton spearheaded the infamous round table.

"We didn't pick when we came here," says Singleton. "They just put us over here and we were like, okay."

"Its because we’re close to the food and the soda machine," Hewitt contends. "And the exit door."

Contrary to the Jesse Jackson in me, the Blueclaws' clubhouse hardly harbors any racial divide. But Singleton and Hewitt have formed a personal rapport. While most of their teammates are staying with host families during the season, a combined $1.5 million in signing bonuses has bought the pair a hotel suite.

Singleton is odd-looking; there is no other way to say it. Thick and muscular, he bears a slight resemblance to Bubba from "Forrest Gump;" his wide-toothed smile is particularly noteworthy. Hewitt, in contrast, sports sharply chiseled features throughout, and is the more serious and inquisitive of the predominantly laid-back duo.

In certain respects, their stories are similar. Both caught the attention of ardent football coaches in high school, but Singleton stopped playing after his freshman year, and Hewitt played just two seasons at fullback. Baseball reigned supreme. Hewitt's late grandfather, Bill Hewitt, who passed away when Hewitt was 11, pitched in Triple-A. He keeps his grandfather's bat and glove as keepsakes. Singleton, meanwhile, saw older prospects from rival schools such as Travis D'Arnaud, Mike Carp, Zach Collier, Chris Parmelee and Gose get drafted while he was in high school, and he knew professional baseball was no pipe dream.

Thrown into similar circumstances, Singleton has thrived where Hewitt has floundered. Through Monday, Singleton, 18, has hit .314/.423/.536 in 291 plate appearances, second among South Atlantic League players in OPS (.959). Hewitt, 21, the 24th overall pick in the 2008 draft, is hitting .209/.255/.330 in 361 plate appearances, leading the league in strikeouts (122) while walking just 12 times.

Overcoming unfamiliar failure

Singleton's ascension has hardly been as seamless as his success suggests. A projected first-round pick coming into his senior year of high school in 2009, he tried putting the team on his back, and his performance suffered, dropping him to the eighth round. He was committed to Long Beach State, but he signed with the Phillies a little over a month after the draft.

A difficult decision? "It was," Singleton said. "It all came down to that I felt like I was ready to make that step. It's the best decision I've made yet. I like school, but I love baseball more."

After a promising debut in the Gulf Coast League that summer, Singleton arrived in spring training expecting to break camp with Lakewood. A lesson in humility was in store for the youngster. Lakewood manager Mark Parent and others felt his game was too unrefined for full-season ball. During scrimmages, he looked more like a bungling teenager in awe of his surroundings than a man equipped with killer baseball instincts.

"For somebody to tell him 'You’re not going to be on this club' for probably the first time his life, that don't feel too good," said Parent. "Then you want to prove them wrong and that's what he's done. It's not a daycare. You're not putting a guy on your shoulder and saying, 'Hey, this is what you need to do.' It's a grown man’s world. You need to get going."

The experience lit a fire under Singleton. He was greeted each morning by buckets of ground balls. His conditioning improved. His newfound work ethic became the talk of camp. When Blueclaws first baseman Darin Ruf hit the snot off the ball, he was promoted to Clearwater on May 13, and Singleton joined Lakewood in Greenville, S.C., that same day. He wasted no time making his presence known, homering in his second at-bat in the third inning off Greenville right-hander Pedro Perez.

It all sounds terribly cliche, but Singleton has storybook-esque talent. He possesses excellent bat speed and tremendous strength; Lakewood hitting coach Greg Legg described his power as "effortless." He has a remarkably short stroke, however, a la Jason Heyward. Singeton's flirtation with a 1:1 BB/K ratio this entire season is undoubtedly a testament to his compact swing, but scouts and coaches also attribute his plate discipline to his remarkable vision. He picks up the ball differently from everyone else. One veteran scout compared it to watching Nomar Garciaparra in his prime.

Singleton also does a good job letting the ball get deep in his hitting zone, routinely going the other way with authority, and enabling him to hold his own against southpaws.

"He's balanced at the plate," Legg says. "Very simple approach. His lower half works very well. He never gets out of his box to hit. He's almost always in it."

"Hitting is so complex it can screw you up some times, but you have to make it simple," Singleton says. "I try not to overthink things."

Will success come at all?

Hewitt leans back his chair, sipping a Coke with his pre-game spread of chicken and rice. Overhead is a small TV tuned into Sportscenter, airing the previous night's baseball highlights.

"It [minor league baseball] humbles you a lot," he remarks. "Looking at what the big leaguers have compared to what we have. Struggles are tough. But it makes you a stronger person."

For a man mired in a 3-for-35 slump, Hewitt is in good spirits, cracking jokes with James and Singleton. Three years ago, he decided to play professional baseball instead of attending Vanderbilt. Despite struggling mightily for a third consecutive season, he does not spend much time thinking about what could have been. "I can always go back to school," he says. Asked if his $1.38 million dollar signing bonus factored in his decision, he looks down and grins with a look of guilt. "Yeah, that too."

A cynically inclined observer may conclude Hewitt has resigned himself to failure, but while he may be his own worst enemy, it’s due to his work ethic. "I felt I've put too much pressure on myself," he reflects. "A little bit too much instead of just going out there and learning day by and day and letting my talents take over."

Hewitt crumpled under the pressure of his self-expectations, sparking an ugly cycle. Fear of failure became the driving force behind his development. He began forcing the issue at the plate; an already aggressive hitter, he hacked at everything. His swing was very lungey. He could not keep his hands back, instead choosing to play pepper with the ball, in part because he was simply trying to make contact.

As a result, he obsessed over his swing, overthinking at times as opposed to letting his instincts dominate. Hewitt proved unable to make integral mechanical adjustments, which scouts increasingly came to view as laziness.

As a former player, Parent can relate to Hewitt's struggles. "When I played with Tony Gwynn in San Diego, he'd say you just gotta stay back. How? I don't know you just gotta stay back, he'd say. Some of the best players can't say how they do things. Some of the worst, less talented guys, they work at it and watch more of other people and try to fit in, but they can't figure it out."

The Phillies’ decision to draft Hewitt, which was derided by many analysts due to Hewitt's rawness, underscores their continued emphasis on athleticism and aggressiveness.

"You look back at some of the good organizations," Parent says "the Cincinnati Reds with Lou Piniella in 1990, they had Eric Davis, the Mets had Darryl (Strawberry). Basketball players. Athletic. They put people in place who taught them how to play baseball. A lot of organizations draft based on what they did in college. But drafting a more athletic guy is a better find because he's more athletic and can help you down the road."

"You can never take the aggressiveness away," Legg says. "It’s hard to teach somebody to be aggressive. In time, they'll learn, maybe I shouldn't have swung at the first pitch or maybe I shouldn't have gone for third with two outs. You would always rather have somebody aggressive than not aggressive. It’s easier to tone it down before you get to the big leagues than to make somebody aggressive.

"You want somebody up there hacking and than say, okay, with two strikes, let's slow it down a bit. Maybe take the body out of it, use your hands more, go the other way. We used to say you can't get off the island if you’re not swinging. Well, walking doesn't get you to the big leagues."

Members of the Phillies brass continue to insist that the athlete in Hewitt eventually will make the adjustment. They don't believe plate discipline is an inherent skill, but something that can be learned in time.

"Vision’s a huge part of it," Legg says, "but I think, the more you see them (changeups, breaking balls, etc.), the more you learn to lay off ‘em and understand what you can hit."

"If Anthony gets it, he's going to be a very special player. It's a matter of when he's going to get it, when the light is going to come on. When is he going to put everything together and not try too hard and impress people."

Yet, Hewitt appears light years removed from reaching his potential. In more than 700 plate appearances in the minors, he has a .605 OPS. and an abysmal 28:246 BB/K ratio.

James passes Hewitt an old edition of the Asbury Park Press, a local paper with the only Lakewood beat writer. A dead silence ensues. Hewitt leans over, taking a quick glance at it, before promptly tossing it in the garbage.

"Something you didn't like in there?" I ask.

Hewitt leans back. "*** 'em," he deadpans. James, Singleton and Hewitt resume laughing.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Matt Himelfarb 2010-07-29T05:04:15+00:00