http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2012 2012-02-10T11:32:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl-0402/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl-0402/#When:06:00:15 Joey Votto | Cincinnati | 1B
2009 Final Stats: .322/.414/.567
2010 THTF Projected Stats: .290/.373/.488

Despite dealing with vertigo and depression in 2009, Votto added more than 100 points to his 2008 OPS, while matching many of his counting numbers in 45 fewer PAs. 2009 actually looked a lot like his small-sample 2007, but with double the walk rate and slightly more strikeouts. Compared to 2008, on the other hand, Votto's 2009 production is much more similar; the difference is the hit rate, which shot up five points from 2008 to 2009. His BABIP, which doesn't measure HR, shot up a whopping 44 points over the same span, which explains why his BA rose 25 points.

That tells us that luck on balls in play and a rise in home run rate can explain the production difference, and at least some of the 61-point rise in SLG. Because he's a line-drive hitter with moderate power, Votto tends to have higher BABIP and hit rates than your average bear, though 2009 was far luckier than expected. Where we see the real shift in his plate approach is in that home run rate. He converted fly balls to dingers at a slightly lower clip in 2009 (17.5%) than 2008 (18.5%), but he applied those rates over a great percentage of fly balls: 31% in 2008 became 39% in 2009. More of that came at the cost of groundballs than line drives, but both were affected.

Because he's so young, it's hard to know what this means for Votto—is he becoming more a power hitter? His minor-league splits validate the shift in flyball rates, so if those continue, his contributions to batting average are going to drop. On the other hand, he may shift his approach at the plate back toward line drives, something that's advisable from a guy hitting in Cincinnati's three-hole, giving up those SLG gains. Neither one is particularly worrisome from a fantasy perspective, as his underlying ratios look solid. With a year away from the problems of 2009, he should establish career highs in counting stats, regardless of which way those ratios shift.

THTF sees the shift as moving away from HR, with the H% correction also eroding his BA. Both are lower than most other projections systems, and I think they're unduly pessimistic. Oliver's forecasts of 24 HR and 88 RBIs look right, but the 32 doubles is where some of that low SLG comes from. Barring further emotional and inner-ear complications, I'd expect Votto to beat those ratios, though not by as much as other owners may think. Bid carefully here, because every projection sees him backsliding, and other owners will want to pay for those inflated 2009 numbers. Unless you're in a keeper league, don't overpay for a guy who's still not a true power hitter at a power position.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati | RP
2009 Final Stats: 7.8 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 2.16 ERA
2010 THTF Projected Stats: 8.5 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.74 ERA

His 2009 ERA looks awfully nice, but Cordero's 3.10 FIP shows that he had a bit of Lady Luck on his side. That's verified by his .301 BABIP, his second-lowest ever, and two years after 2007's .241, when he somehow managed a 2.98 ERA anyway. He's also had two straight years of elevated LOB% rates, typically a sign of ERA regression, even if he dodged that bullet in 2009.

2009 also featured a very small 3.0% HR/FB rate, low even for a guy with Cordero's unusually low career 5.9%. That's why his xFIP has risen the past two years to a career-worst 4.06, a sign that something is going to give in his production. Cordero keeps his HR rate down by also keeping the ball down, and last season saw him with a 1.15 GB/FB rate, his second-best ever and his second straight year goosing that into more ERA-protective territory. When you pitch at Great American Home Run Park, that's a good thing, and may come from a change in his repertoire.

In that same 2007-2009 period, Cordero's clearly changed his makeup on the mound, as his strikeout rate has plunged from a career-best 12.2 in 2007 to last year's 7.8, his lowest level since 2001. That, in turn, comes from a shift in his pitch selection—Cordero has a heater that sits around 95, complemented by a change in the mid-eighties and a wicked slider. In the past, he used his slider a lot more, peaking at 46% in 2007, but in the past two years, that's dropped significantly, down to 26.3% last year. At the same time, he's upped his use of his heater from 51% to 64% since 2007.

Using his slider less could mean elbow problems, or might explain why his walk rate has been above 4.0 BB/9 for the last two years. These are all worrisome trends for Cordero, which is why everyone sees him giving up his ERA gains in 2010. THTF is more pessimistic than others I've seen, though the strikeout ratios and control ratios are similar. He's managed to avoid significant payback for his high strand and BABIP rates, and he may keep dodging those bullets if he keeps the ball down in the zone. If he doesn't, he may get that statistical "adjustment" with precisely the vengeance that THTF predicts.

Don't forget that Cordero's 35, so more velocity dropoff and overall decline is to be expected, and he pitches in a park that doesn't forgive many mistakes. He's got skills, but the red flags of walk rates and declining slider usage could mean problems. So you can still bid on him, but be cautious, and don't go the extra dollar on a guy who's on his way down, not up.

Brian McCann | Atlanta | C
2009 Final Stats: .281/.391/.486
2010 THTF Projected Stats: .283/.348/.501

Fantasy owners were contemplating swan dives from their office windows when McCann started out 2009 with a .195/.333/.415, seeming lost at the plate. As it turned out, it was all in his eyes (specifically, his left eye), a complication of offseason LASIK, and Oakley created a custom pair of stylin' frames (and lenses) for him to adjust his vision. McCann adjusted more than that, hitting .289/.350/.492 the rest of the way and coaxing his owners off their metaphorical high-rise ledges.

The rest of the season wasn't all wine and roses for McCann—like many catchers, he wore down as the season went along, hitting .246/.309/.440 from July 28 to the end of the season. Other catchers would love to get these kind of numbers, of course, but McCann owners had to feel a bit more like climbing back out on that ledge in August, given where they drafted him (or how much they paid). Those same owners have to wonder if this late slump will continue for McCann in 2010, and whether they'll find themselves on Fantasy Suicide Watch again.

The Oakleys will be gone in 2010, as McCann underwent LASIK surgery again in October to fix that left eye, which might help the one cause for concern in this 2009 season: his plate discipline. McCann's career K rate is 14.2%, but he whiffed at a 20% clip in the final two months of the season, possibly a product of his late-summer fatigue, or steamed-up Oakleys. He walked less, too, albeit slightly less, at an 8% rate that was a dropoff from the 9.9% he logged the rest of the season, a number that happened to be identical to his 2008 levels.

Except for this, however, much of his 2009 performance echoed his 2008 results. His 34% hit rate was the same, and his powerful 20% line-drive rate was nearly equal; he tweaked his flyball rate down by 2%, keeping his HR/FB rate steady. If you take away his early struggles and late fade, he hit a robust .325/.386/.538, very similar to his 2008 numbers. THTF sees his strikeout and walk rates continuing to decline slightly, which comes at the cost of OBP; his power is clearly due for a rebound, right in line with other projections. Overall, this seems like a very good assessment of his 2010 outlook.

The 2009 late-season fade will—and should—have some fantasy owners a little spooked. There's a reason why catchers have a short shelf life in MLB, and McCann's caught 130+ games for three straight seasons. He's only 26, so it's not like he's turned into Crash Davis, but it might not be unusual for McCann owners to see him decline down the stretch like this in the years to come. He's still valuable when he's slipping, but it could drag down his value come Draft Day.

Wandy Rodriguez | Houston | SP
2009 Final Stats: 8.4 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 3.02 ERA
2010 THTF Projected Stats: 7.8 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 4.01 ERA

At the core, Rodriguez's 2008 and 2009 were nearly identical, with 2009 showing a slight improvement in xFIP from 3.75 to 3.63 that came from similarly small steps forward in walk and strikeout rates. But the real difference comes from strand rates and BABIP, two factors largely out of a pitcher's control, and which underlie his career year in 2009.

In 2008, batters had a .326 BABIP against Rodriguez, who had a 73% strand rate, the former elevated and the latter about at league average. Rodriguez has put up low (unlucky) strand rates throughout his career, though they've been creeping upward each year. While strand rates often reflect luck—pitchers can't always control who's on base when they give up hits or home runs—they can also reflect the ability of a pitcher to concentrate on the batter and not the baserunners, or to bear down in tight situations.

So it could be argued that Wandy has learned to pitch under pressure and work from the stretch. But his BABIP fell to .306 in 2009, closer to league average, but low by Wandy's standards. Like all groundball pitchers, Rodriguez has a higher BABIP than average in his career, so anytime he's close to league average, luck is breaking his way. That portends a regression in ERA next season, much as THTF (and other systems) predict, along with a dropoff in strikeout and walk rates that will drop his value further.

His strikeout rates will continue to deliver points to fantasy owners, and he's certainly turned a corner in his career by showing great improvement, so there's nothing to worry about in the grand scheme of things, fantasy-wise. But his career 2009 and probable slippage in 2010 will make him overvalued on Draft Day, and you should bid accordingly.

Justin Upton | Arizona | OF
2009 Final Stats: .300/.366/.532
2010 THTF Projected Stats: .280/.355/.515

Upton's 2009 puts him in some pretty heady company: The other players to have a .250+ ISO season before age 22 include names like Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Willie McCovey, Jimmie Foxx, and A-Rod. Of course, it also includes injury-riddled flameouts like Bob Horner and Hal Trotsky, or the injury- and drug-riddled Daryl Strawberry. Regardless, it's excellent company, and few are questioning Arizona's wisdom in locking him down to a six-year, $51.5M contract.

As with many other young players, it's hard to spot definite trends in Upton's career. His walk rate bounced up from 7.2% in 2007 to 12.9% in 2008, then fell back down to 9.4% last year. Is that a rising trend, with 2008 as the outlier, or is 2007's 152 PAs a small sample space, and this is a downward trend? His strikeout rate did the same thing, starting at 26% in 2007, shooting up to 34% in 2008, then falling back to 26% in 2009. That's hopefully a downward trend, but it's hard to be confident. THTF sees him as probably slipping some in his batting average, though .280 is still rather nice, and Upton is working towards the skillset that can consistently deliver a .300 BA.

Another stat that could indicate a bad trend for a power hitter is his rising GB rate, which went from 36.0% to 37.2% to 45.5% in the past three years. What's helped J-Up is his rising HR rate, which went from 4.2% to 15.3% to 18.8%, getting into elite territory. Given his clear ability to hit the snot out of a baseball, it's hard not to think that the latter will continue to rise, but if he keeps sliding backwards in his fly ball rate, that snot-knocking won't be quite as effective. THTF thinks that should undercut his SLG, on the low end of other systems, but hardly a lowball, and certainly very good value.

Another set of crossing trends involve his pitch recognition, as he's killing pitches without movement—his wFB/C rose from 0.06 to 2.58 and his wCH/C stayed strong at 3.65 and 3.27 between 2008 and 2009—but scuffling against breaking stuff in the past two seasons—his wSL/C plunged from 1.06 to -2.43 while his wCB/C improved into more acceptable territory, from -1.57 to 0.81. Pitchers will notice this, too, and he's going to see less of the straight stuff and more sliders in 2010, at least until he figures those out, too.

Fantasy owners know that Upton's more than just a great hitter, however. He's got wheels, and he's going to swipe somewhere around 20 bases, further adding to his value. The good thing is that AJ Hinch likes to run, so J-Up should get the greenlight more often than not. Hitting third might not seem like he best place to swipe bags, but that's where he hit last year, and did just fine with 20 steals. So no matter how much he might scuffle with the bat—and I'm not saying he will—he's still going to bring value with those SBs.

Bidding on Upton depends on whether you're in a keeper or redraft league. Keeper owners (those in a first-year league, anyway, since J-Up's long gone in existing keeper leagues) should think like the D-backs and pay for his future production. One-year league owners should see that correction coming and don't overpay for the hype of Upton's HOF 2009—he's still a young hitter, and regression is definitely likely. Add that to the overpaying tendency of other owners, and you may be able to find better value elsewhere in the outfield.

This is Rob McQuown and my last week writing Waiver Wire for The Hardball Times, and Tommy Rancel and Josh Shepardson, two talents you know from "Buy On the Rumor," will be taking over to start the regular season. I just want to thank the THT staff—particularly Dave, David, and Derek—for all their help, as well as the awesome THTF readers who constantly challenged me to produce the best product each week, and with whom I had some great fantasy baseball and stat discussions. I'm going to miss all of you, and I hope you'll keep reading me at some of my other writing venues. Have a great season, and let's Play Ball!

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Street 2010-04-02T06:00:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl-0326/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl-0326/#When:06:00:15 Andre Ethier | Los Angeles | OF
2009 Final Stats: .272/.361/.508
2010 THTF Projected Stats: .284/.360/.494

Except for his miserable May, Ethier built on his .335/.409/.583 second half of 2008 to show that he's finally arrived. For the first time in his career, he broke the 30-HR (the first Dodger to do so since Adrian Beltre's 48 longballs in 2004) and 100-RBI barriers, playing in all but two games for the Dodgers. The mysterious May slump likely came from his 26 H% and the split toenail that limited him for the last week of the month. But he came back with a vengeance in June, putting together a nine-game hitting streak that included four homers in three games, bringing his OPS up 100 points.

That kind of clumping was typical of Ethier, who hit more than a third of his 31 HR in six multi-homer games. Shockingly, all of those multi-dinger games came at home, where he hit 22 HRs. That's surprising for Dodger Stadium, one of the stingiest HR parks in the league (only Busch surrendered fewer HR/G in 2009), but a good sign for Ethier owners going forward—he has a .915 OPS at home.

One stat that wasn't shocking in 2009 was Ethier's platoon splits. His career OPS is 203 points higher against RHP than LHP, and that gap widened to 331 points in 2009. While that makes his overall line that much more impressive, it's a worrying trend, following four straight years of declining OPS against southpaws. It's too soon to call for a platoon, but Ethier could be headed that way if he keeps this up.

Another trend to note is that Ethier started hitting more fly balls last year, with a career-high 41.5% in that department. His HR rate seems to be settling into the 14-15% range, so he's a good shot to keep his power up if this continues, though more fly balls would also depress his BA. Since this came after three straight seasons of declining FB%, it's a good question as to whether this is a permanent shift or not.

THTF predicts a reversal in this trend, boosting his BA at the expense of his SLG, and sees him falling back to HR levels in the mid-20s (he's predicted for 23). That puts them right in line with other projection systems, which only differ by giving him a slightly higher SLG. Consistent contact rates in the low 80s mean that he's a solid BA bet, especially with four straight seasons of rising walk rates. Those platoon splits are worrisome, but Ethier's still going to deliver very good value for you. He's not a top-flight OF in mixed leagues but gets close in NL-only leagues, and should be someone you can safely bet on for another OPS in the high 800s, even throwing in a few SBs to boot.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay | RP
2009 Final Stats: 12.1 K/9, 3.8 K/BB, 2.97 ERA
2010 THTF Projected Stats: 9.8 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 3.51 ERA

Soriano is the ultimate risk-reward guy at the back end of a bullpen. When he's healthy, he throws a tidy fastball-slider combo that helps him rack up the Ks. But when he's not healthy, the loss can be catastrophic—he's missed nearly all of two different seasons in the past five years, and 2009 was only the second time he's broken the 70-IP mark, setting a career high with 75.2 IP.

Last year, Atlanta had Mike Gonzalez as insurance—they were nominally co-closers to start the season, but the sharing project quickly fell away as Soriano asserted himself, and Gonzalez only recorded one save after July 1. With Tampa Bay, there's J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour to step in if Soriano goes down, so they're well-protected, and Soriano's fantasy owners should be, too.

If he remains healthy, however, Soriano will deliver you some excellent numbers. Since his rookie year, he's only once failed to register at least a strikeout per inning when pitching more than five innings, and that was his 8.8 K/9 in 2007, which is darn close to that magical mark. Soriano's BB/9 have been equally good in his career, typically around 3 BB/9 (2008's injury-shortened 14-IP 5.8 BB/9 is a clear outlier). He's relied less and less on off-speed stuff in recent years, but that's typical for an endgame power pitcher. And while his fastball has improved a bit in effectiveness, slipping from 1.06 to 1.42 wFB/C since 2006, his slider has declined a bit, going from 1.82 to 1.39 wSL/C in that same period. Those aren't slides to worry about unless they continue, and show that he's still got the same stuff as before his 2008 elbow problems.

Moving back to the AL shouldn't hurt Soriano, since that's where he began his career, and he moves to a team with one of the best defenses in baseball. Tampa Bay ranked second in UZR/150 in 2009, while placing fourth in Defensive Efficiency and third in Total Fielding Runs Above Average. Soriano's more of a flyball pitcher, averaging 0.62 GB/FB in his career, but having guys like Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton chasing down those flies will make him even better.

Don't take him without an insurance policy, and don't overspend for those saves, but Soriano is a very good gamble if you're the guy who likes good payoffs, as he should help you in multiple categories. His health history will scare off other owners, depressing his value, but he could make a great second or third closer for you, especially if you can get Balfour and a healthy J.P. Howell as a handcuff.

Brandon Phillips | Cincinnati | 2B
2009 Final Stats: .276/.329/.447
2010 THTF Projected Stats: .264/.313/.424

Even a bum wrist didn't keep Brandon Phillips down in 2009, as he put up a year almost identical to 2008, despite the fact that he'd been dropped into the cleanup spot. Phillips initially said the wrist had a hairline fracture, frightening some fantasy owners into dropping him (like an owner in one of my leagues), but the Reds said that it was just a deep bone bruise. Whatever it was, it happened when he was hit by a pitch on Aug. 15, and Phillips hit .301/.341/.438 from that point until the end of the season, so it couldn't have been much. That line could have had more to do with luck than a healthy wrist, as he enjoyed a 36% hit rate over that span, as compared to the 30% he enjoyed the rest of the season.

Overall, however, Phillips didn't enjoy too much luck, since his HR/FB rate dipped a few points from 2008. That might seem like he could pick up some SLG in 2009, but his FB rates have been slowly slipping over the past three years, so that could cancel out any return to statistical HR/FB norms. Two other complementary trends show why his THTF projection sees a correction coming. His walk rates have generally improved a bit since 2006, rising from 6.0% to 6.8%, while his strikeout rate plunged from a three-year average around 16% to 12.8% in 2009. A sudden leap forward like this is unusual in a player with his experience, and he could give those gains back in 2010. Phillips is too young to fall off the table suddenly in any direction, however, and only THTF doesn't see him joining the 20-20 club again (THTF projects 18 HRs, though his 21 SBs are in line with other systems).

He's an odd placement in the cleanup spot, with his modest SLG, but that's where Dusty Baker will probably place him in 2010, too. He still swiped more than 20 bags despite that unfavorable positioning, so there's no reason to think he can't do it again. If Dusty does see the light and puts Jay Bruce, for example, who has more raw power, there instead, that could shift Phillips' HR/SB mix even further in favor of speed.

Either way, however, Phillips will continue to provide a very good power-speed blend that's valuable for a MIF. His walk rates and modest contact skills will keep him from being a great BA boost, but he shouldn't hurt you there, either. The persistence he showed in playing through his wrist problems last season show how gritty he is, and so long as he remains healthy, he'll remain a top-notch 2B option in mixed or NL-only leagues.

Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado | SP
2009 Final Stats: 8.2 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 3.47 ERA
2010 THTF Projected Stats: 8.2 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 3.64 ERA

You've got to like a young pitcher with a 95+ mph fastball, even if Coors Field is his home. You like him even more, however, when that guy pitches better there, as Jimenez did in 2009—his ERA and WHIP were both better at home than away, even if his control was slightly poorer there (2.2 K/BB vs. 2.5 K/BB away from Coors). His BABIP was also a touch worse at home, but when it's .285 vs. .288 it didn't make much of a difference, and shouldn't change much going forward.

Overall, Jimenez solidified his skills in quite a few areas in 2009, with results that reflected that growth, and not mere luck. For starters, his 73% strand rate was solid, but his peripheral ratios showed improvement, too. His strikeout rate improved from 2008's 7.8, but his biggest step forward came in his control, as he went from a 4.7 to 3.5 BB/9. That's the most important area of improvement for a young power pitcher, and Jimenez barely got into acceptable walk rate range with that 2009 performance. As a power pitcher in Colorado, his flyball rate might be an area of concern, but Jimenez has shown growth there, too, over the last three seasons, dropping from 37% to 28% since 2007. Combine that with his slightly below-average HR rates in the past two years, and you'll see that even a correction from 2009's 7.8% HR/FB back to league norms isn't much to worry about.

Jimenez has also broadened his repertoire, using his slider more, and using it more effectively. Since coming to the Rockies, he's increased his usage of it from 10.2% to 17.8%, while it's gone from 0.99 to 2.39 wSL/C. His heater, too, has gotten better, from a -4.7 to 11.4 wFB/C in the past three seasons. He was touted for having four pitches, and his changeup remains strong, but his curve still needs work, as it's been inconsistent. Jimenez has compensated by throwing the curve a bit less, possibly because Colorado's thin air doesn't allow it to break like it should.

THTF sees some slippage in Jimenez's production in 2010, largely due to a regression in his walk rate to 4.2 BB/9. Even if that happens, those numbers remain solid, and unless he suddenly reverses those groundball gains, he's a very strong SP option for 2010. He's still a young power pitcher, and bumps are possible, but it's hard to match his strikeout potential. Keeper leagues have surely snapped him up already, but he's a very good SP option for redraft leagues of all kinds.

Michael Bourn | Houston | OF
2009 Final Stats: .285/.354/.384
2010 THTF Projected Stats: .254/.319/.338

Bourn is one of those one-dimensional fantasy anomalies, where owners tolerate his punchless offense because he can seal up the SB category for you singlehandedly. In leagues that don't count steals, on the other hand, he can bring some value from the runs he scores, but he's a marginal talent otherwise. In 2009, though, he also brought BA and enough SLG to make him tolerable in non-SB leagues, and those 97 times he crossed home plate were nothing to sniff at, either.

Since he's a young player, it's difficult to know if Bourn is establishing tendencies or breaking them with his 2009 performance. He had a 19% strikeout rate in the minors, which ballooned to 23% over the past two seasons. His 13% walk rate in the minors sunk to 9% in 2009, though that was better than the 7% he put up in 2008. He pounced on fastballs in 2009, devouring them at a 1.35 wFB/C rate, but couldn't figure out sliders (-2.32 wSL/C) and went from awful against changeups (-4.03 wCH/C) in 2008 to merely bad (-1.29) in 2009. And his hit rate jumped from 30% to 37% between 2008 and 2009.

Which way is he going? Hard to know for sure, but THTF sees him giving some of those gains back, not really surprising with a young player like this. It's lower than other projection systems, but the best of those still peg him as declining from his 2009 season. Unless they improve, Bourn's strikeout rates are still too high for a stable batting average, while his walk rates are barely in good territory. But if pitchers figure out his weakness to offspeed and breaking stuff, his ratios may not matter. The good news for fantasy owners is that his speed will remain consistent—as long as he gets on base. His groundball hitting style (57.8 GB% in 2009) and footspeed should help him reach base, even if his other trends push his hitting downward. There's no stopping the steals, even if THTF sees him getting 50 swipes, and nobody sees him repeating a 60+ season.

A final concern is his health in spring training, as he's missed more than a week with an oblique strain, and should return today. Both Bourn and the Astros insist that he's fine, but oblique injuries have a way of lingering, and could sap his power and BA further. This isn't enough to drop him off of draft charts, but it could slide him a few spots, and certainly bears watching.

Regardless, Bourn remains someone who will be drafted high in standard roto leagues and ignored in others, and if you draft him for your team, he's going to be a two-dimensional contributor, neither helping nor hurting your BA while not contributing at all, or even hurting you, in power. If he could bring more than that, he'd be a much higher pick. As it is, however, you shouldn't be seduced by those tasty SBs enough to overpay for or overdraft him. I'm never a fan of filling a spot with someone who can just contribute in one category, whether it's a closer with awful peripherals or a hitter who only delivers you steals. Unless you can get Bourn for a reasonable price, look elsewhere for guys to fill out your SB category.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Street 2010-03-26T06:00:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl-0319/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl-0319/#When:06:00:15 Derrek Lee | Chicago | 1B
2009 Final Stats: .306/.393/.579
2010 THTF Projected Stats: .286/.365/.486

Cubs fans and fantasy owners who were ready to write off Lee after his .291/.361/.462 in 2008 got a rude (or pleasant) awakening with Lee's 2009 production. He had the second-highest HR total in his career and drove in a career-best 111, hitting triple digits in that department for just the second time ever and the first time since 2005. The 149-point OPS rise can be partly explained by a return to health, since he had back and neck problems throughout 2008; this idea is reinforced by the .189/.253/.284 line that Lee put up in the first month of the 2009 season. He could have been just shaking off rust or the lingering effects of those bulging disc issues, or it could just be a 33-year-old starting to feel the spring chill in his bones.

Whatever the cause, Lee rebounded from that slow start to hit .325/.415/.627 the rest of the way, to the delight of fantasy owners. Cubs fans might have noticed, if not for the antics of Milton Bradley, the slump of Alfonso Soriano, and Aramis Ramirez's dislocated shoulder. It's an encouraging sign that the Cubs' first baseman has returned to form. Or has he?

Really, there's not a ton of luck involved in Lee's 2009 numbers. His .327 BABIP was actually lower than 2008's .330, and consistent with his career .323 average. He saw a spike in HR rate between 2008-09, converting flies to longballs at a 17.9% rate last year as compared to 11.7% in 2008. But since 2008 was a career low and his career average is 17.0%, 2009 was more a return to form than a lucky spike.

One significant difference in 2009 was his approach at the plate, as he reversed a four-year trend toward grounders to lift a career-high 45.7% fly balls. Since some of those came at the cost of line drives—his 19.2% was second-worst in his career—it could indicate that he was just getting under the ball more than hitting it square. But a spike in HR and FB rate tends to produce outsize power numbers, which certainly happened to Lee in 2009.

If this is an ongoing trend, it should mean he'll continue to produce HRs at a greater rate than before, perhaps necessitating a slide into the cleanup spot (this makes even more sense if Ramirez continues his slide in SLG). It could also hurt his BA, something that's been bolstered in the past three seasons by a contact rate around 80%. His neck and back issues are also further concerns as he ages, since these problems tend to be nagging and can sap the strength of a power hitter.

The projections from THTF see this affecting him rather seriously, with a dropoff to 23 HRs and 89 RBIs. I think that's a bit too pessimistic, particularly in SLG, but most systems agree a correction is likely. This will moderate his value heading into 2010, but with good health, he should be back to more productive ways. Don't expect 2005 again—ever—but more seasons where his OPS tickles .900 would be welcome, and would cement him into the middle of second-tier 1B.

Johan Santana | New York | SP
2009 Final Stats: 7.9 K/9, 3.2 K/BB, 3.13 ERA
2010 THTF Projected Stats: 8.0 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 3.75 ERA

The final straw in the Mets' miserable 2009 came when they learned their ace was being shut down for the season due to elbow problems. Though Santana had a decent year, it wasn't up to his usual standards, and was a downer after a bounceback 2008. But his secondary stats looked solid, and showed slight, if any, regression. His strikeout rate slipped by .03 K/9 and his walk rate rose by .06 BB/9, but neither of those are particularly worrisome.

His uptick in HR rate, from 0.9 to 1.1 HR/9, on the other hand, seems small, but it points to one troubling trend in Santana's 2009: his hit trajectories. His 0.75 GB/FB was his lowest in six seasons, coming from a career-worst 47.5 FB%. That's why his HR/9 rate rose even though his HR/FB rate dipped a tad from 2008-09; if his 8.5% HR rate in 2009 rises to more expected levels, and his FB rate stays high, his ERA is definitely going to rise. And those strikeout and walk numbers might be of less concern if it weren't for the overall trend in both areas—his walk and strikeout rates have both regressed steadily in the past three seasons, and his WHIP has also risen alongside them, a trend that goes back six seasons.

This all may be because he's losing his stuff. Fangraphs' pitch tools show that Santana's fastball has been losing velocity since 2006, though that may have actually led to better movement on it, as he's also become more effective with it. The bigger problem comes from his slider, a pitch that's gone from way above league average (2.26 wSL/C) in 2006 to well below it (-0.88 wSL/C) in 2009. The slider (like any breaking pitch) is tough on the elbow, so cleaning the bone chips out could help the life return to his slider. But whether it's this or age-related regression (Santana's only 30), it's definitely cause for concern.

You see that caution reflected in the THTF projections, which are higher than other systems (CHONE likes him even less, while Bill James sees a huge turnaround) but seem reasonable, given the slippage outlined above. Keeper owners have to be gnashing their teeth that he's fallen so far, but there is some reason for hope. The surgery could lead him to the Jamesian turnaround you can find elsewhere, and he's looked healthy and occasionally dominant in the little Spring Training action he's seen. And the Mets, who finished dead last in the NL in UZR/150, should be improved in that department in 2010, helping reduce Santana's BABIP, which rose 9 points from 2008-9.

The fact remains, however, that Santana is no longer the top-flight starter he once was. Don't pay for the name on draft day, and keep in mind that others will. He'll bring you strikeouts and his ERA should be at least decent, if not better than THT sees. But this isn't the Twins' Johan Santana by any stretch, and keeper leagues in particularly should take notice of that.

Brad Hawpe | Colorado | OF
2009 Final Stats: .285/.384/.519
2010 THTF Projected Stats: .266/.365/.480

Hawpe's final line for 2009 doesn't look too bad, but his fantasy owners know how frustrating last season was for them. Through the first half of the season, Hawpe was producing at an awesome .320/.396/.577 rate, headed for a 30-HR, 100+ RBI season. And then, after the All-Star break hit, Hawpe couldn't—he managed just a .240/.370/.442 line the second half of the season, even finding himself dropped to seventh in the batting order and getting yanked from the lineup down the stretch.

Luck can explain a bit of the slide—his BABIP dropped 24 points in the second half—but his impatience took its toll, too. His contact rate was already slipping in June, down to 71% from 83% in May, before his production started to follow suit. In fact, from June onward, his contact rate was an awful 66%, and his walk rate fell from 15% to 12%, too. He's never been a particularly savvy or selective hitter, as his career 0.57 BB/K average shows, but 2009 saw him post his lowest ratio (0.54) since 2005, his first real season in the bigs.

The other area of regression was in his hit trajectories, as he hit more ground balls than he had since 2005, never a good sign for a guy with power and marginal speed. He still maintained his normal FB/HR rates, but that was applied over fewer fly balls, hence his lowest AB/HR rate since 2006. His GB/FB rate has been creeping up since 2007, so this could be a taste of things to come.

One area that did follow career patterns was his platoon splits. Fellow southpaws have always been his Achilles heel; he averages an OPS 152 points lower against them. In 2008, he narrowed that gap to just 71 points, his best rate since that same 2005 season, a year that doesn't really count, since he was in a platoon. 2008, as it turned out, was also an outlier, as he returned to career norms with a vengeance in 2009, displaying a 180-point OPS differential. That's what got him pulled out of the lineup so often toward the end of the season, and leads many to believe he's headed towards a permanent platoon. If he hasn't figured out lefties in 568 PAs, he's unlikely ever to do so.

Rumors surrounding a Hawpe trade have come and gone, and GM Dan O'Dowd has knocked them down, but their very persistence suggests at least a grain of truth. The Rockies have tons of OF talent right now, and holding onto a guy who can only play there effectively 60-70% of the time clearly isn't worth it. Seth Smith is the odd man out in the OF rotation in 2010, but he could easily leap into RF if Hawpe looks like he did in the second half of 2009.

Hawpe's in the final year of his deal and, depending on how you feel about these things, it could motivate him to new heights of productivity. But THTF isn't buying it, and neither am I. Though the projection may be a bit low compared to other projection systems, I'd expect a Hawpe closer to the second half of 2010 than the first. If he starts out hot and you own him, I'd look for a trade partner, because the production won't last. He's always been streaky, registering .900+ OPS in April, June and August, while posting OPS in the .780-.860 range in other months.

While the validity of monthly splits are subject to debate (I'd add the investment-advertisement caveat here of past performance not indicating future earnings), Hawpe definitely runs hot and cold. If another owner drops him, you can wait for the hot streak to pick him up off the wire, but he shouldn't play full-time on your team, any more than he should in Colorado. Bid accordingly in your draft and, if you already own him, look for a replacement for those inevitable cold spells.

Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles | SP
2009 Final Stats: 9.7 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 2.79 ERA
2010 THTF Projected Stats: 9.6 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.23 ERA

At the other end of the age spectrum from Johan Santana is Kershaw, one of the most promising young arms in the game. Not many pitchers end up with a 4.08 FIP in their first year in the majors—at age 20. Kershaw built on that to the 2009 season you see above, when his FIP fell to an awesome 3.08 on the strength of those peripherals. Only missing a few weeks with a bruised shoulder (sustained while shagging flies, proof that even practice can be dangerous in baseball) put a blemish on an otherwise excellent season. Heading into Spring Training, it now seems that Kershaw is the ace of the staff, accorded the honor of starting Opening Day, as it appears the Dodgers will do.

Digging underneath that breakout 2009 season, we can see reasons to moderate any overly lofty expectations for him, however. As is often true with young power pitchers, Kershaw had trouble with walks, and his 4.8 BB/9 rose slightly from that 2008 debut. He also benefited from a .274 BABIP and 6.8 HR/FB%, although the latter can probably be explained by Chavez Ravine, where he only gave up one longball in 88.1 IP (Coors Field, on the other hand, saw him surrender 4 in 17.0 IP). His rise in FB% makes this a statistic worth watching, as he went from a 37.6% FB rate in the minors to 41.6% in 2009. He's so young that it's hard to determine tendencies like this, but it is something to keep an eye on. He also got support from an elevated 77.5% strand rate, which makes him vulnerable to a likely ERA correction of half a run to a full run.

On the plus side, Kershaw was fairly limited in how much work the Dodgers allowed him to do. They stuck as close as possible to the 100-pitch mark, something he exceeded in quite a few starts, but never by more than 12 pitches. The 171 IP he threw had a lot to do with his bruised shoulder, but they would have undoubtedly kept his innings low regardless. He'll have a bit more latitude in 2010, which could allow him to build those impressive strikeout rates into a total that will help your team even more. And the potential ERA regression is still relatively minor, with THTF's projections in the same 3.30-3.50 ballpark as other systems.

Other than the walk rate and the usual setbacks any young pitcher is likely to experience, there are few red flags for this rising young lefty, and little reason to underbid on him come draft day. Remember that he's not going to give you the same numbers he did in 2009, but if he's in the same neighborhood as the THTF numbers, he's going to help your team immensely. Keeper leagues are undoubtedly all over him already (I've owned him for two seasons in one of my keeper leagues) and he's got obvious added value in NL-only leagues. But nearly any owner should have no problem going the extra buck or two to put this young fireballing southpaw on his team.

Raul Ibanez | Philadelphia | OF
2009 Final Stats: .272/.347/.552
2010 THTF Projected Stats: .273/.340/.477

In his first year with the Phillies, Ibanez didn't do all that bad. Sure, his batting average dropped more than 20 points, but he hit a career-high 34 home runs and had a .552 SLG, and his 110 RBIs were his second-best total ever. And, oh yeah, he did it all while playing through a sports hernia that required offseason surgery. His stint on the DL for a pulled groin was obviously much more serious than that, and Ibanez showed his character and grit by playing through it.

That hernia's the best way to explain the dropoff in production from the first half of the season to the second, when his OPS plummeted 300 points along with his HR production. What's perhaps more impressive is that his season didn't turn out worse. His 23.8 K% and (therefore) his 0.47 BB/K were both his worst since 1998, though both worsened in the second half of the season, after he got hurt. Either because of his early-season success or his late-season tenderness (Fangraphs doesn't split hit trajectories by month or half-season), he hit career highs in FB% and HR/FB rates, which certainly explains that prodigious HR total. He did this at the expense of line drives, however, posting his lowest rate ever and continuing a general downward trend in that department since 2003.

Raul is getting old, as we all are: he'll be 38 this season, and his skills have been declining. Alongside that downturn in line drive rate, he's increased how often he swings at pitches outside the zone, despite not showing a corresponding increase in contact rate on those pitches (2008's 71.5% was a clear outlier). This, added to his other trends, indicates that more declines are coming.

He's not going to hit like he did in the second half of 2009, when he could only muster a .232/.326/.448 slash line, but THTF sees him closer to that than his overall 2009 line. That could be a little pessimistic (despite his .143 Spring Training average) but some pessimism is warranted in this case. Age-related decline is to be expected, as are other injuries like the hernia, even though Ibanez has been a fairly healthy guy throughout his career—and, as we saw last year, he's perfectly willing to grit his teeth and play through it.

Ibanez was never a top-flight OF in fantasy, but he was one of those guys you could count on for a steady clip of BA, HR, and RBI. He's going to be a lot shakier going forward, but he'll still be dependable for good contributions in all those areas, especially with the high-scoring Phillies. He might even have periods like the first half of 2009, though not for an entire season. That makes a very good play in NL-only leagues, a good play in mixed leagues, and a decent investment overall.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Street 2010-03-19T06:00:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl-0312/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl-0312/#When:05:59:15 Jeff Clement | Pittsburgh | 1B
2009 Final Stats: .227/.295/.360
2010 THTF Projected Stats: .248/.325/.446

The 2005 draft featured a ton of great talent: Justin Upton was the first overall pick, but other players like Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Cameron Maybin, Jay Bruce, and Andrew McCutchen all went in the top 15. Some call it the best draft in history. And except for J-Up, everyone on that list went after Jeff Clement, who was picked third overall by the Seattle Mariners. Seen as one of the top offensive catching prospects, Clement busted out a .315/.387/.508 line in his first minor-league season before hitting a .263/.334/.382 bump at Double-A and Triple-A in 2006. He rebounded to a .275/.370/.497 2007 at Triple-A, following it up with a .335/.455/.676 line in 2008.

His gaudy power skills (67 HRs and 109 2Bs in 1,761 PAs) were supplemented by a cumulative 11% walk rate that portended good things, especially from the catcher position. But his 21% strikeout rate was cause for concern, something that would come back to bite him later. Seattle also wasn't convinced that his defense was good enough behind the dish, and he was hit by a few nagging injuries. Eventually, Seattle brought Clement to the bigs in 2008, but he could only manage a .227/.295/.360 line, and that strikeout rate ballooned to 31% while his walk rate shrunk to just 6%.

But his problems didn't end there—the Mariners inked Kenji Johjima to an extension in 2008, so Clement shifted to DH. Then the Ms brought back Ken Griffey Jr. as Seattle's DH in 2009. So they began to work on Clement as a potential 1B, then traded him late last season to Pittsburgh, who sought to develop his 1B potential. Clement spent more time at Pittsburgh's Triple-A affiliate but hit just .224/.313/.459, with a 28% strikeout rate. That was over 115 PAs, as compared to the .288/.366/.505 he put up in 421 PAs with Triple-A Tacoma, so it's likely that was due to small sample size, as well as the shock of changing teams and leagues.

Pittsburgh hasn't given him the 1B job in 2010 just yet, but it's his to win in Spring Training, if he can prove himself worthy on defense and offense. Garrett Jones stands ready to take over if he falters, but the Pirates would much rather have a productive Clement and Jones in the lineup, since his backups are Ryan Church and Brandon Moss. THTF's projections don't look very impressive for a 1B, and include a modest 22 HRs, 36 2Bs and 88 RBIs. In case you think that's a lowball projection, it's about in the middle of the extremes of other projection systems.

He's a real gamble for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is the instability of that K%. Pittsburgh would like to see some of that minor-league power come to the fore, as would fantasy owners. Watch him carefully in Spring Training, and if he snags that starting gig, he'll make an adequate CIF in deeper and NL-only leagues. But you'd still be better off taking almost any of the other MLB players who were chosen after him in that awesome 2005 draft. Too bad Seattle (or Pittsburgh) doesn't have that same opportunity.

Bud Norris | Houston | SP
2009 Final Stats: 8.7 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 4.53 ERA
2010 THTF Projected Stats: 8.0 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 4.97 ERA

Listed as the No. 2 prospect by Baseball America in 2009, Norris leapt from Double-A in 2008 to Triple-A and the majors in 2009 without missing a beat. At Triple-A Round Rock, he put up 2.62 ERA, striking out 8.4 per 9 IP, while walking 4.0 and giving up 7.8 H over the same span. Though not mind-blowing, that's still good enough for a callup, and he racked up the strikeouts with the 'stros, even as he showed the same problems with walks and hits.

Neither the strikeouts nor the walks are surprising, since Norris is a prototypical power pitcher, delivering a fastball that's been clocked at 98, along with a slider and still-developing changeup. Like many youngsters with thunderbolts for right arms, Norris isn't always sure where that heater is going. His minor-league walk rate is 3.7 BB/9, and last year's 4.0 (which he matched in the majors) is a career-high for him. That's concerning, and he reportedly still needs to work on his changeup, though his slider was his worst pitch in 2009 (1.55 wSL/C). Compare that to his nifty -8.8 wFB/C, a nice indicator of his potential dominance.

As for his problems giving up hits, he had an elevated .329 BABIP in 2009, undoubtedly due to a team that put up the worst Defensive Efficiency (.677) in the NL. Their cumulative UZR/150 is -0.1, almost dead average, but he clearly doesn't have Hoovers behind him. He was slightly unlucky in home runs, a 12.9% that's sure to drop somewhat, although his 42.7 FB% in MLB is a radical shift from his 31.5% rate in the minors. He must have been leaving some balls up in the zone, which could point to either injury or fatigue.

Norris experienced elbow problems in 2008, which kept him from pitching for almost two months and had him on strict pitch limits when he returned, so he he finished the year with just 83.0 IP. In 2009, he threw 120 IP in the minors and 55.2 more in MLB, a total that more than doubled his injury-shortened 2008 season, and well above the career-high 102.2 IP he logged in 2007. Norris is a big, stocky guy, a generous 6 feet and 225, up 30 pounds from last year's numbers, so athleticism doesn't seem to be his strong suit. A sudden jump in IP on top of an elbow injury isn't a recipe for long-term success, and bears watching.

The projections from THTF aren't optimistic that he'll be successful this year, particularly in the control department, leading to that bloated ERA. And his WHIP is going to be affected by the walks and the elevated 9.5 hit rate THTF sees, too. I don't agree with the elevated 1.1 HR/9 rate, unless his FB rate continues to climb, so that ERA might be a tad high. In the end, Norris will bring you strikeouts, but you've got to expect the usual young-pitcher struggles with control and hits. Fitting him into the middle of an NL-only rotation or the back end of a mixed-league rotation seems the safest place, if you don't ignore him entirely to see how he starts out the season.

Nick Hundley | San Diego | C
2009 Final Stats: .238/.313/.406
2010 THTF Projected Stats: .231/.290/.407

One of the few things that Padres fans have to look forward to is their young core of Kyle Blanks, Adrian Gonzalez (at least for now), Everth Cabrera, Chase Headley, and Nick Hundley. The least significant of the group from a fantasy perspective, Hundley is still very much in San Diego's small-market, low-budget future. His value comes in ways that aren't usually measurable in fantasy, however, which is important to know. Not all real-life prospects are fantasy studs.

That's not to say that Hundley is worthless, since any starting catcher is bound to be in play in NL-only and deeper mixed leagues. And Hundley brings value with his power, as evidenced by his 2006 season, when he hit 11 HRs and 32 2Bs at low and high Single-A. He then clobbered 20 HRs and 23 2Bs at Double-A in 2007. He got the call in mid-2008, but disappointed by hitting just 5 HRs and 7 2Bs in 216 PAs, good enough for a weak .359 SLG.

In 2009, he was hitting .241/.346/.387 when Chad Billingsley hit him on the wrist on June 9. Hundley was on the DL for a "wrist contusion" for nearly a month before San Diego bothered to X-ray his wrist, and found a small break in his ulna bone. He took another month to get back to action in early August, finishing the season with a .286/.346/.500 September. I'll refrain from commenting on a team that takes a month to figure out their top catcher has a broken wrist, except to say that perhaps the Padres deserve a few of the losses they try to write up to small-market economics.

As for Hundley, he's an all-or-nothing guy at the plate, with a career 28.2 K% in the majors (21% in the minors) and a decent 8% walk rate; both will keep his BA low enough to also hold his value down. The longballs, on the other hand, are a very real part of his game. His .168 ISO was good enough for eighth among NL catchers in 2009, and he should bring that same decent power (for a catcher, anyway) in 2010.

The problem, however, will be that he's not the Padres' only option behind the plate. They signed Yorvit Torrealba shortly before Spring Training, and the two are likely going to share time in some fashion. Projections from THTF give him 346 PAs in 2010, or a little over half-time. Torrealba has superior BA skills, but not power, despite his late-season burst in Colorado, but he's got experience and could push Hundley for time if he struggles. San Diego would be foolish to allow Torrealba to take over entirely, since Hundley is their future, but he's definitely a threat for PT.

In the half-time that THTF forecasts, Hundley's only expected to deliver 11 HRs, and his OPS isn't all that remarkable for a catcher. But he's still a catcher, and it's one of the thinnest positions in fantasy, and Torrealba might revert to more tepid production levels after shifting from one of baseball's best hitting environments to one of its worst. That makes Hundley an outside shot to beat those PT projections, which would drive up his value. Still, consider Hundley as a cheap NL-only option if you can offset his BA drag, but only the deepest of mixed-league owners shouldn't bother looking at him at all.

Cole Hamels | Philadelphia | SP
2009 Final Stats: 7.8 K/9, 3.9 K/BB, 4.32 ERA
2010 THTF Projected Stats: 8.0 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 3.68 ERA

Hamels went from 2008 postseason hero to a 2009 zero when he was the losingest pitcher in the rotation—even Joe Blanton had a better record and ERA than the lefty who had been the ace of the staff and the pitcher of the future. Fantasy owners were taking virtual dives off of skyscrapers when Hamels seemed to regress in nearly every area of his game in 2009, including a jump in ERA of over a run. But, as so often happens in these situations, it's a combination of bad luck in 2008 and good luck in 2009 that at least partly explains the apparent dropoff in production. That his FIP was identical between 2008 and 2009 supports that deduction rather nicely.

In 2008, Hamels had a .270 BABIP against him and a 76% LOB, while those numbers changed to .325 BABIP and 72.1% LOB in 2009. That huge .55 swing in BABIP corresponds almost exactly to the .46 difference in BAA against him in the two years. The elevated strand rates from 2008 tend to foretell an ERA correction in 2009—precisely what happened—while the near-average LOB% in 2009 mean likely ERA stabilization. In other areas, luck broke Hamels' way in 2009, as his HR rate slipped a bit from 11.2% to 10.7%, part of a steady three-year drop in that department. That's a bit less important for Hamels, whose FB rate has been an unwavering 38.7% over the past three years, but it does play a small part in his projection.

An area we can't measure by statistics could change this year, too, which you can see on his Fangraphs page. Hamels is reportedly working on his curveball, which has never been considered a plus pitch for him, although his dominance with it has improved from 1.52 wCB/C in 2007 to -1.37 in 2009. And if the offseason throwing program helps him get off to a better start than he did in 2009 (12 ER on 4 HR and 12 Hs in 9.2 IP over his first two starts), that's bound to help him, too. After those first two shaky outings, he had a 3.96 ERA and 1.24 WHIP the rest of the way—not great numbers, but much more palatable, and good enough to put him third on the staff in ERA and WHIP instead of fourth.

Some of this optimism is reflected in the THTF forecast for 2010, which sees a season somewhere in between his good-luck 2008 and bad-luck 2009 seasons. His xFIP has been slipping over the past three seasons, an indication that his skills may be eroding a touch, which may be why he's trying to sharpen that curveball. Pitching in Philly is an unforgiving environment, even for a guy with relatively low, stable flyball numbers; Hamels gives up dingers at a 1.26 HR/9 rate at home, and 1.06 HR/9 everywhere else.

So don't expect him to push his ERA close to 3.00 again unless he hits another stretch of good luck, but he's still going to deliver those Ks and a solid WHIP. He's never been an elite arm—despite what Philly fans will tell you—but he is a solid second-tier arm who's only been on the DL 50 days in the past 5 years and generally delivers good, if not great, numbers. That kind of dependability has its own value, and Hamels' sub-par, unlucky 2009 makes him an excellent buy in any league for 2010.

Mark Reynolds | Arizona | 3B
2009 Final Stats: .260/.349/.543
2010 THTF Projected Stats: .255/.335/.518

Arizona fans could only wring their hands in 2009 as their team found new ways to disappoint, whether it was injuries to Brandon Webb or sending their four-year centerfielder Chris Young down to the minors. But for pleasure, they could watch Mark Reynolds club 44 HRs, even has he set an all-time mark with 223 whiffs (breaking his own 2008 record). In the process, he became baseball's Three True Outcomes leader for 2009, as 51.8% of his PAs ended with a walk, strikeout or home run.

While this makes a fun statistical toy for analysts, what it really means is that his BA is continually depressed, like Adam Dunn, Jack Cust, Carlos Pena, and Russell Branyan, the guys who round out 2009's TTO Top Five. The best BA from any of these guys in the past five years? Pena's .282 in 2007, the one BA that's not hovering around (or below) .250. (Reynolds' .279 in 2007 is another outlier, but that was clearly driven by a .378 BABIP and a relatively small 414 PAs). This drives the value of all these TTO guys down in standard roto leagues, though they make very good plays in OBP or OPS leagues.

Reynolds' 2009 contains some good and bad trends. Unsurprisingly, his K% hit a 38.6% career high (making for a perfectly awful 61.4% contact rate), after rising from 35.2% in his three-year MLB career. On the bright side, his walk rate has risen over the same span from 8.9% to 11.5%. But the most telling rise is his HR/FB rate, which began at 16.2%, rose to 18.2% last year, then rocketed to an unsustainable 26.0% in 2009. Home run hitters like Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Adam Dunn tend to have HR/FB rates in the low 20s, and only Ryan Howard regularly has rates higher than Reynolds' 2009 HR/FB—Howards' are in the 30s, peaking at 39.4% in 2006.

Hitters' HR/FB rates tend to regress toward their rolling 3-year average, and Reynolds has only been in the league for three years (counting 2007's three-quarter-time performance), so it's possible his HR/FB is on the rise and he's about to become the next Ryan Howard. That's not impossible, since Reynolds is the only guy on the 2009 Top Ten TTO list who's under 30. What's much more likely, however, is that Reynolds will settle down into the low 20s in HR/FB rates, deflating his HR total (and his roto value) into the high 30s.

You can see that rebound in the THTF forecast for 2010, which shows him hitting 38 HRs, 104 RBI, and the slash line you see above. Because of his 2008 performance, other owners in your league might expect another great season. If you're really clever, you'll take advantage of that in your auction draft and bid his value up a bit, particularly at the beginning, when it's safer to do so. Just don't get stuck overvaluing him, because he's a good bet to sink back down to a more reasonable production level. Arizona fans just hope they have other things to focus on when he does.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Street 2010-03-12T05:59:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl-0305/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl-0305/#When:06:00:15 Lastings Milledge | Pittsburgh | OF
2009 Final Stats: .279/.323/.373



2009 started out horribly for Milledge, who began as the leadoff hitter for the Washington Nationals but quickly rubbed management the wrong way and earned a demotion to Triple-A Syracuse to straighten out his attitude. A few weeks later, hitting just .253/.277/.316, he broke his finger trying to lay down a bunt, an injury that required surgery and knocked him out of action for six to eight weeks. Then, a few weeks after that, he found himself traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates as part of a package with Joel Hanrahan, for Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett.

With the Pirates, however, Milledge started to turn it around. After a few weeks of minor-league rehab, he came back up and Pittsburgh quickly inserted him in the starting lineup, hitting in the middle of the order. Milledge responded by hitting .291/.333/.395, including a three-week stretch between August and September when he hit .406/.458/.578 in 19 games. He's now saying that the finger injury held his power back, something that's always been part of the Milledge package (.470 minor-league SLG, with 100 2B and 38 HR over 1559 PAs), along with speed (90 SBs in 131 chances and eight 3Bs in that same time).

Unfortunately, attitude is also part of the Milledge package, which is why he's already with his third organization, in spite of the hype about him. Another part of the Milledge Package (it's got a nice ring, doesn't it?) is a strikeout rate over 20% and a 6% walk rate—not awful, but not predictive of a great BA, particularly not with his career contact rate of 78%. He's improved in each of those statistical areas over the past four seasons, however, except for his walk rate, which has held steady. The attitude is a bit harder to measure, but there weren't reports of problems with the Pirates after he joined them; whether that's a honeymoon or not remains to be seen.

These rising trends are good signs, and no doubt why GP is cautiously optimistic for next season, even if a .767 OPS isn't terribly impressive for a corner OF. Milledge's value comes from his multi-category contributions; those same GP predictions have him making adequate (if not overwhelming) contributions in HR, SB, R and RBI. Most owners will focus on those hard-to-collect steals, which are, as ever, a function of opportunity, both in his own ability to get on base and how often the manager cuts him loose.

The latter part of the equation depends on manager John Russell, who brought Pittsburgh from a team with one of the lowest steal totals in 2008 to the middle of the NL pack in 2009. That could have been a function of new talent like Milledge and Andrew McCutchen as much as anything else, but it looks like he'll allow Milledge to steal in the right situation. The situation may not come up as often if he's hitting fifth or lower in the lineup, where he's currently expected to hit. And the ultimate question is whether a guy with a frozen walk rate and a below-average contact will get on base; if he does, it's likely to be behind either Garrett Jones or Ryan Doumit, who could jam up the bases (Jones has some speed, but I don't see too many Jones-Milledge double steals coming). This all makes those 21 SB projected by GP seem a bit elevated.

So fantasy owners should consider Milledge a mid-round choice—that $19 value is nice, but it's tied to those swipes, so I wouldn't speculate too high above that. Your fellow owners may be bearish, as indicated by that negative Sentiment number in his mini-browser, so he could come at a discount. Keeper owners will like the fact that he's only 24, and a breakout is possible—but so is a reemergence of his attitude problems. Bid with caution.

Felipe Lopez | St. Louis | 2B
2009 Final Stats: .310/.383/.427



Among his sleeve tatoos, which are all baseball-related, Lopez ought to fit one in of Rodney Dangerfield, since he sure doesn't seem to get much respect. He's played for nine teams in as many seasons, and sat at home during much of this past offseason, waiting for teams to come calling. He finally came to terms with St. Louis last week on a one-year, $2M deal, as one of the last big-name free agents to find a home. (That lack of respect could have come from being a client of Scott "Show Me More Money" Boras, whom Lopez fired about a week before inking that Cards deal.)

While he hasn't been amazing in his career, Lopez has been steady, and steadily improving. His career line is just .269/.338/.400, but it's gotten better since becoming a full-timer in 2005, rising to .280/.349/.407, while averaging 12 HR and 19 SB per season. His BB/K is only .50 for his career, but in those same five seasons, it's grown to .57, averaging .63 over the last two years. He's also been dependable, appearing in 140+ games in each of those four seasons.

Really, the one bad spot in that four-year span is his time with the Nationals, where he averaged .250/.320/.344. Everywhere else, he had an OPS 100 points or more higher. It's worthwhile to note that his 43 games with St. Louis in 2008 were his best; he clobbered .385/.426/.538 over 169 PAs. 2009 seemed awfully solid, too, but the mini-browser shows you some of the reasons: a rise in his walk rate and a 37 H%, helped further by a career-low 17% strikeout rate. That's why he's predicted for a line somewhere in between 2008 and 2009—nobody sees him cracking .800 OPS again, not even with the Cards.

But that prediction is also a very good bet; everyone sees him with an OPS in the .730-.760 range, a good place for a MIF to be. It's a good bet because of his very nice 80+ contact percentage, including 92% inside the zone, both of which he's maintained steadily since that promotion to the starting lineup in 2005. And when he connects, he only hits about 30% fly balls, helping his BA but reducing his HR output. Though his breakout 2005 season featured 23 longballs, that had more to do with a ridiculous 18.1% HR/FB than any underlying skill. Double-digit dingers is an accomplishment for Lopez these days.

His modest power, speed and batting eye combine with his contact rate to create a solid leadoff guy, where he's hit for Washington, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Milwaukee and Arizona, and where he should hit once again with St. Louis. The Cards didn't have a good leadoff guy in 2009, and Lopez should score plenty of runs ahead of Pujols and Holliday. Though the ratios look good, his GP values were calculated as if he'd remained in Milwaukee, splitting time with Rickie Weeks (the only assumption we could make at presstime).

This PT situation, as well as the lineup he's sitting on top of, means you can double those PAs and all his counting stats to make him worth at least twice as much as that $5 projection—I'd put him closer to $13. His veteran experience and good peripherals make him a very nice MIF option for mixed leagues and an excellent NL-only option. Like Milledge, he's one of those guys who gives a bit in every category, particularly BA, and should get more respect in your fantasy draft than he did in the 2009-10 offseason.

Homer Bailey | Cincinnati | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.8 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 4.53 ERA



Among all the promising young starting pitchers for the Reds, Bailey has been the disappointment. The No. 7 overall pick in 2004, he became the Reds' top prospect for the next three seasons (at least according to Baseball America), but he's consistently failed to live up to expectations. Other than a groin pull that set him back in 2007, the problem has been his own, though it's typical for a power pitcher: finding the strike zone, at least in the majors. Featuring a fastball that touches the high 90s and a baffling curve, Bailey's minor-league K/BB ratio sits at a respectable 2.37. But he's only averaged 1.36 K/BB in MLB, thanks to a strikeout rate that sits a shade over 6 K/9, combined with a 4.5 BB/9.

In 2009, this trend continued. He started the year in Triple-A, earning a call-up after Edinson Volquez went down. But he was thrashed soundly in his one appearance, a 6 ER, 4.1 IP outing against Cleveland when he walked six and struck out only three, needing 95 pitches to get even that far. And so back down he went, dominating Triple-A hitting so thoroughly that he won 4 of 5 starts with a 0.47 ERA, reportedly developing a splitter in the process.

When he returned to the bigs in late June, he again lost the strike zone for his first 10 starts, striking out 1.4 batters for each one that he walked, thanks to a 5.3 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. He also gave up 1.6 HR/9, all en route to a 7.11 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP, and a predictably poor 3-7 record. Then he found himself—and the strike zone—over his final nine starts of the season, reflected by his 2.2 K/BB, 8.2 K/9, and tiny 0.3 HR/9 rates, though he still walked batters at a nearly identical 3.7 BB/9 clip. Unsurprisingly, he went 6-3 over that stretch, with a 1.70 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

It certainly looks like Bailey turned a corner in those final nine starts, and his xFIP shows that Bailey's been getting marginally better each year. 2008 was so awful in part due to an anomalous 18.6% HR/FB rate, as well as a .376 BABIP. That's bad luck, possibly combined with a tendency to groove his fastball—when you're walking 4.2 per 9 while striking out only 4.5 per 9, you're gonna have to throw a lot more down the pipe. Sure enough, batters had a 94% contact rate against Bailey's pitches in the zone, a sure sign that he was awfully hittable.

This year reversed many of those trends, with a much more normal 9.4 HR/FB% and a .306 BABIP. With Bailey working ahead in more counts, he dropped that Z-contact rate to 89%, while the contact rate on outside the zone fell 10 points from 2008 to 2009. That could have a lot to do with his splitter, which Fangraphs' pitch breakdown shows he threw anywhere from 7-19% of the time (there's a mystery pitch that gets thrown 11%, which seems to me most likely to be his splitter); it's also his least effective pitch (-2.75 wSF/C). But even if it's getting hit, it could be setting up his fastball, which also picked up a few mph since 2008; these increased the effectiveness of his heater by nearly 2 runs per 100 pitches. His slider and curve also showed dramatic improvement, picking up nearly 10 runs between them (also per 100 pitches).

This does suggest that Bailey should build on that second-half step forward he took in 2009, but there's plenty to suggest caution, too. Taking nine starts as evidence of a pitcher suddenly putting it all together is betting on an awfully small sample space, especially considering his youth and his MLB history. His walk rates are still too high for him to be completely effective, even in that short stint of success. GP reflects this caution in its particularly bearish outlook, though it's not that much more pessimistic than other systems. He remains a talent to watch early in the season, but I'm not yet convinced enough to take him on more than a flyer, even in keeper leagues. He's got a lot of upside, particularly in strikeouts, but he remains a risk to your ratios—consider other Cincinnati arms before this one.

Rickie Weeks | Milwaukee | 2B
2009 Final Stats: .272/.340/.517



You have to like Weeks' swagger at the plate, his aggressive posture, his defiant, Sheffield-like bat waggle ... but that same waggle may be responsible for the multiple wrist surgeries that have derailed Weeks' young career, and the aggressiveness has made him a difficult fit as leadoff hitter in front of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. The health question isn't one that can be definitively answered, but the aggressiveness could make the difference in whether he reaches his power-speed potential or not.

Last season's numbers looked awfully good, but a glance at the mini-browser shows they were held up by a 37% hit rate, and that SLG comes from career highs in fly ball rate (43.5%) and HR/FB (19.1%). Had his wrist sheath not sent him to the DL after just 162 PAs, his year would have looked a lot different. How different is hard to say, but his 7.4% walk rate was his lowest since 2006, and his strikeout rate had regressed two points to 26.5%, falling somewhere between his 2007 and 2008 numbers. Both of these combined for his worst BB/K ratio since his 14-PA first season, not a good indicator, especially for a leadoff guy.

He continues to be a great fastball hitter, and his 2.39 wFB/C was his best ever, but he struggles against the offspeed stuff—both changes (-5.86 wCH/C) and splitters (-5.22 wSF/C) befuddled him in 2009 more than ever. The changeup trend continues a drop from 2008, while his futility against the splitter was his second-worst season, performing worse against them only during that 2003 cup of coffee. Those aren't encouraging trends, and he's not really dominant enough against fastballs to offset those problems.

So for every favorable glimpse we see of Weeks in 2009, there's another trend that's equally disturbing. Either one can be written off to the relatively brief season he had, another trend that's been all too familiar to Brewers fans. Weeks has yet to play 130 games or more in his five MLB seasons, only twice playing more than 100 games. He's missed time in each of the last four seasons to various dings and dents, and three of those times have been to his troublesome wrists.

The bright side is that he's recovered from this exact same wrist surgery before, in 2007. He missed a bit of time during that season to tendinitis in the same wrist he'd had surgery on, then went on to a good, if not great, season, as you can see from the mini-browser, with a much better second half than first. He's had more time to recover this time around, and has had no wrist issues reported from camp so far. Nobody knows whether (or where) he might be injured again, and he has refused to stop that Sheffield waggle, even if it's been the source of his wrist problems.

Weeks offers speed as well as power, and he can steal bases with no wrists (or arms, for that matter). Even if he only delivers modest power, those SBs should help keep his value up, assuming he continues to get on base at a moderate clip. His middling contact rate means he'll drag at your BA, but his OBP puts him on at a decent 34-35% rate, so long as the worrisome K and BB trends he exhibited at the start of last season don't continue.

Another aspect that may affect Weeks' SB total is Alcides Escobar, the speedy shortstop for the Brewers. Escobar is expected to hit eighth—or possibly ninth, as Macha has said he'll try hitting the pitcher eighth in Spring Training—but Escobar should eventually hit first. That would presumably push Weeks to second in the lineup, ahead of Ryan Braun, which could allow him to see more fastballs, his favorite pitch. He might not steal as many bases for you in the two-hole, but he'll more than compensate in other areas, like driving Escobar home (something he could still do, of course, if Macha bats Escobar ninth).

GP's predictions were based on a half-season (see the Lopez writeup above for an explanation for that), so there's no reason Weeks can't reach at least the 20-20 club, if not better, if he can stay healthy. His projected value will, of course, increase along with his PT, and only more injuries will keep him from doubling that $7 projection. You'd be wise to have a backup plan if you draft Weeks, who slips to the second tier of 2B mainly due to the BA and health risk. Brewers fans and fantasy owners would love to see him beat that projection and rise into the first tier, but the 27-year-old still needs to prove himself, despite being in the league since 2003.

Jason Hammel | Colorado | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.8 K/9, 3.2 K/BB, 4.33 ERA



How many pitchers can say that it took getting traded to Colorado for them to solidify their skills? Not many, and Hammel is one of those select few. Three years with Tampa Bay weren't enough for him to put it together, and so the Rays swapped him to the Rockies early in the 2009 season when he looked like someone they couldn't use in their rotation. Colorado didn't think they could use him as a starter, either, but then Franklin Morales went down with a strained shoulder. Hammel got into the rotation on May 3, pitched six shutout innings against San Francisco, and never left it.

That doesn't mean Hammel had an easy ride on the mound. He lost his next three starts, and didn't have another shutout outing until the last game of the season, when he threw two scoreless innings of relief. He gave up four or more ER in seven starts during the season, and failed to get out of the fourth inning in three starts, one of them a 1.1 IP, 5 ER thrashing at the hands of the lowly Mets in Shea Stadium. But Colorado was no sanctuary for him, either; his home ERA was 5.73 and he gave up 12 of his 17 home runs there.

Still, despite the bumps, Hammel definitely showed improvement last season. He doesn't have an overpowering repertoire, but it is broad, with several arm angles and four pitches he throws with regularity. He found his success as a groundballer, increasing his GB% each year in the minors, until he topped off at an impressive 51.2% his final year in Durham. He hasn't done quite as well getting major-leaguers to pound the ball into the ground, but he still managed a 46.2 GB% and the very nice GB/FB ratios you see in his mini-browser.

He also controlled his walks better than ever in 2009, slicing his walk rate in half. And he got better as the season progressed; though he struggled in July, from July 1 onward, he walked just 1.9 per 9 IP. Walks mean a bit less to a groundballer, who can induce more double plays than your average bear, but it's still a good thing to keep runners off the bases in a park like Colorado. Hammel also ramped up the K rate over that same three-month span, striking out 7.1 per 9.

Even better, 2009 reflects a bit of bad luck, as you can see from both his 3.71 FIP and the .327 BABIP against him. That's a bit of a surprise, because most of the Colorado infield (so important to a groundball pitcher) was well above average in UZR/150, even if the team as a whole is below average in defensive efficiency. The 2010 Rockies will have a very similar infield defense, with Ian Stewart (8.3 UAR/150 in 2010) getting a crack at 3B and Clint Barmes (7.5 UZR/150 in 2009) in the early lead for the 2B slot. That would portend the ball bouncing Hammel's way a bit more in 2010, and a corresponding ERA drop. The other bad luck area for Hammel was in strand rate, which was a subpar 69.5% last season, also portending a downward correction in ERA, albeit a slight one.

He'll be Colorado's fifth starter, a further incentive to greatness, at least from a matchup perspective. It will diminish his IP and Wins, and his Coors splits and narrow margin for error are also a concern, amid all the other good news. Along with other projection systems, GP is pessimistic overall, largely because this was his first good season, but he's got a really good shot to beat those projections. He's well worth a late-round flier and a bid of $1 or $2, and could fill the back end of your fantasy rotation nicely.

Graphical Player 2010 is SOLD OUT, so I hope you got yours! But you can still get an edge up on your fantasy league with a subscription to HEATER magazine, with detailed stats and predictions like this twice a week!

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Street 2010-03-05T06:00:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl-0226/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl-0226/#When:06:00:15 Cameron Maybin | Florida | OF
2009 Final Stats: .250/.318/.409



In their 2009 edition of the Prospect Handbook, Baseball America predicted a starting gig for Maybin out of spring training, saying: "Only a disastrous showing would send him back to the minors." Maybin fulfilled the prediction by making the squad as the starting CF, then hitting a limp .202/.280/.310 in the first 23 games and 95 PAs, earning him a quick demotion to Triple-A.

He didn't return to the Marlins until the end of the season but hit .293/.353/.500 the rest of the way, giving at least the appearance of improvement in those final 104 PAs. He did show some strides forward, tweaking his BB/K from 0.26 to 0.45 and his contact rate from 63% to 78%, despite a walk rate that stuck at 8%. He was also helped by a H% that rose from 32 to 38, but much of those trends are good ones, even if they are expressed over a fairly small sample size.

Like many gifted young hitters, Maybin struggles in allowing his peripheral skills to catch up with his athletic talent. He's got five-tool potential, but he'll only reach that level if he can harness his aggressive approach at the plate. In the minors, he struck out in 24% of his PAs and followed that up by whiffing in 29% of his MLB plate appearances in 2009. He's got great bat speed and has power potential (.473 minor-league SLG), so every pitch must seem hittable to him.

The good news is that he's made strides in these areas throughout his minor-league career—his K% dropped from 32% to 20% between 2008 Double-A and 2009 Triple-A, and his contact rate rose from to 68% to 81%. His BB% dipped from 13% to 11% over that same period, but that's not precipitous, and it remains well above acceptable minimums. He's going to start to make those same advances in the big leagues, too, but it will take some time. He's been up-and-coming for so long (he debuted in 2007 and was the key piece of the deal that brought Miguel Cabrera to Detroit) that it's easy to forget that Maybin turns 23 this year.

The nice part, as always, is that his speed doesn't need further development, though his opportunities to show it do. While not an elite SB threat, he managed to swipe 81 bags in 103 attempts in the minors, at yearly success rates in the 70-80% range. Fredi Gonzalez didn't really let him loose in 2009 (one SB in four attempts), no doubt because he spent most of his time hitting second or eighth, as well as his need to focus on other areas of his game. But that speed will come, as he gets on base more and learns the opposing pitchers. Like his batting, you shouldn't expect that to advance too quickly, particularly since Gonzalez projects him in the two-hole in 2010, behind Chris Coghlan, who rarely steals, and ahead of Hanley Ramirez, who may be able to deliver Maybin to the plate no matter what base he's standing on.

Maybin remains extremely talented, as well as very young, so you can't get too excited about him too soon. With his history of swinging and missing, as well as the usual bumps you expect from a young player, he's not likely to be too reliable this season. I like most of the GP prediction for him, though those steals seem awfully high, given where he's hitting. Keeper owners will clearly want to be all over him, if they aren't already, given his long-term prospects, but don't let that enthusiasm affect your bid in a redraft league. Other owners are likely to overpay for Maybin based on his reputation, so you should let them. Even the most optimistic predictions don't see him doing amazingly well in 2010, so don't go too much over that $13 GP prediction.

Chris Volstad | Florida | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.1 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 5.21 ERA



Marlins fans were ready for Volstad, a former first-round pick, to shine in his first full year in the bigs after the impressive 2008 season you see in his mini-browser. Instead, he disappointed, putting together the 2009 numbers you see just below that line. If you had the full browser and graphs available in GP 2010, you'd see one of the reasons why: his BB/9 suddenly went through the roof in August and September, while his never-impressive K rate bottomed out.

Despite his lanky 6-foot-7 frame that makes you think he's gonna bring the heat, his fastball sits only in the low 90s. But it's what he does with it that counts—he gets ground balls. His curve and change will keep batters guessing, but getting them to pound the ball into the dirt is how he gets guys out. In 2008, he collected grounders at a 53% rate, leading to a very nice 1.9 GB/FB ratio. He also had a 77% strand rate, a sure sign of ERA regression, even for a groundball pitcher.

Sure enough, he regressed in 2009, and not just in that three-plus-point rise in ERA. He also left the ball up in the zone, dropping his overall GB rate a few points to an even 50%, while his GB/FB rate fell to 1.5. The consequences of this can be seen in his HR/FB rate—in 2008, it was a measly 3.9%, low even for a groundballer, and in 2009, it went the other direction, to an incredibly unlucky 17.5%. That's why his xFIP for '08 (4.59) and '09 (4.35) are very close; in fact, after normalizing the HR rate (which is what differentiates xFIP from FIP) we can see that Volstad controlled the game better in 2009 than 2008, despite much poorer results.

The altered hit trajectory helps account for the shift in home runs, particularly with the lucky/unlucky shift in HR rate he experienced between 2008 and 2009. It also shows you Volstad's narrow margin for error, a margin that's narrowed even further by a defense that put up a -3.4 UZR/150 in 2009, much of that courtesy of the infield, from the -28.6 Jorge Cantu at 3B to the -9.6 Dan Uggla at 2B. More traditional metrics like Defensive Efficiency also put Florida pretty low on the defensive totem pole (.686, 12th in the NL).

So even when Volstad can induce ground balls, there's no guarantee that the Marlins' gloves will gather them in. Except for 1B Gaby Sanchez, the infield is likely to remain the same in 2010, giving him a similarly low margin for error. He can help himself with a better walk rate, which sat above 3 BB/9 in both '08 and '09, higher than his minor-league 2.4 BB/9 average over five seasons. Ground ball pitchers can use double plays to eliminate some of those walks, but when you combine an elevated walk rate with a sudden jump in fly ball and home run rate, you have a recipe for disaster.

GP is pessimistic that Volstad will be able to keep all these moving parts in sync for 2010, and its prediction isn't far off from most other systems. Low-strikeout pitchers like Volstad have diminished worth in fantasy, which explains that low value, plus don't forget that he's only 23 this year. He might push that return into positive territory with a mild breakout, but he remains a late-draft, low-dollar gamble, even in NL-only leagues. Florida has lots of pitching talent to gamble on, but your money's better spent elsewhere than Volstad.

Jonny Gomes | Cincinnati | OF
2009 Final Stats: .267/.338/.541



He tried to test free agency, but like many others dipping a toe in the shallow pool of free-agent dollars, Gomes didn't find too many takers, so he ended up taking a one-year deal this week to return to Cincy. A glance at his mini-browser shows the inconsistency that might have led to such reluctant suitors, particularly at a time of hesitant spending. What's the difference between that devilish .666 OPS with the Devil-free Rays and the .879 OPS with the Reds?

Hit rate and home venue helped, as his 26% hit rate valley with Tampa Bay became a 38% mountain in Cincinnati, while going from Tropicana Field (0.85 HR park factor in 2008) to Great American Ballpark (1.18 HR park factor in 2009) had to help him dispense souvenirs to fans in the cheap seats. Gomes also managed to hold his own against RHP for the first time in years in 2009, registering an .859 OPS against righties and a .914 against southpaws—in his career, his OPS is 127 points better against lefties. Luck was a factor even beyond his hit rate, as he converted 22% of his fly balls into longballs, a career best for him and even more impressive considering that he also had his lowest fly ball rate since 2005.

Amid this fluctuation, the one constant you can see in his mini-browser is that 70% contact rate, something that will always deflate his batting average. When he's not giving the cheap-seat fans souvenirs, he's stirring up a nice breeze in the muggy Cincinnati summers, a tendency that's unlikely to change. In his career, Gomes' best K% rate was the 29.9% he had in Tampa Bay in 2008; his worst was in 2007, when he struck out 36.2% of the time. In 2009, he whiffed 30.2% of the time, a bit below his 32.2% career average, but well within expectations. Neither the K% or CT% bode well for leagues that count BA, and it will be a consideration in whether you'll want to draft him. Unlike TTO monsters like Adam Dunn or Carlos Pena, you can't rely on Gomes for walks, as his 8-9% walk rate—another constant in his career—is merely adequate.

A further consideration with Gomes is the all-important playing time factor. When they signed Gomes, the Reds speculated that he could slide into a platoon, probably with Dickerson; knowing that the short side of a platoon is your perceived ceiling isn't particularly comforting. He was considered a backup in 2009, and only got on the field so often thanks to injuries to outfielders Jay Bruce, Willy Taveras and Chris Dickerson. While Taveras is gone and Bruce is a lock for RF, Dickerson is back, along with LF candidates Laynce Nix, Wladimir Balentien, Chris Heisey and Josh Anderson. Even all-or-nothing power-hitter Juan Francisco is a possibility in the long-term outlook, though Dusty insists Francisco's going to learn the infield first (an absurd proposition for the corner infielder, given the presence of Scott Rolen at 3B through 2012 and Joey Votto at 1B for hopefully much longer).

As Gomes saw in 2009, anything can happen, and injuries can open the door for him again in 2010. But just as that kind of "luck" can go his way, it can go against him, too, and his H% or HR rate could plummet. With this kind of volatility and playing time potential, Gomes' value is likely to be less than that $6 prediction. As streaky as he is, he should be bouncing on and off the waiver wire all season long, which is why you should lay off him on Draft Day, unless a massive case of exploding hamstrings suddenly lays low all the other LF candidates in Cincy. He's definitely someone to watch and ride when he's hot, but Gomes is a bench player at best for any league other than the deep NL-only variety.

John Maine | New York | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.1 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 4.43 ERA



While everyone knows the Mets ace is Johan Santana, how many fans outside New York could name Maine as the man following him in the rotation? Whether you can or not, seeing a guy with his 2008 numbers in the No. 2 slot shows why Mets fans have acid reflux just thinking about their 2010 starting pitching. Even Maine's career year of 2007 looks more like a No. 3 or lower pitcher on a contending team, and he'd have a hard time even hearing the word "rotation" if he were pitching for the Mets' free-spending crosstown rivals.

Part of Maine's problems of late has been his tendency toward injury; he's missed 184 days in the past four seasons due to various ailments, including most of last season to weakness in his pitching shoulder. Appropriately, he started 2009 weakly (11 starts, 5-4, 4.52 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 K/BB) but finished it relatively strong (4 starts, 2-2, 4.12 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 3.3 K/BB). That's a good, but not amazing, turnaround, which is a good way to describe Maine himself: good, but not amazing. His 2007 peak, after all, was a 15-10 record with a 3.91 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, to go with a 8.5 K/9 and 2.4 K/BB.

The same could be said for his assortment of pitches, something he seems to be tweaking year to year. In that peak year of 2007, he threw 21% sliders and 66% heat; in 2008, he cut that slider rate in half, while increasing his fastball percentage to 71. Last year, he threw 72% heat and 16% sliders. This shifting repertoire has led to those predictably mediocre results.

As that peak year shows, he's had good strikeout numbers in his Mets career, around 7 K/9, though that fell to 6.1 K/9 last year, worse at the end of the year than the beginning. But that decent strikeout rate is dragged down by walk rates that push 4 BB/9. Worse, Maine's walk rates have climbed as his strikeout rates have fallen, not a good direction for growth. As a marginal flyball pitcher, he's further damaged by HR rates above 1.0 HR/9 in his career. He's gotten better (or luckier) in keeping the ball in the yard since that 2007 peak—last year was helped a bit by a 7.5% HR/FB rate. All this leads to a FIP and xFIP that have both climbed each season since 2007, making it hard to blame his struggles on the dysfunctional antics of the team behind him on the diamond.

Taking a step back to see the whole picture—or whole pitcher—we see a guy with slightly above-average skills at a moderate risk for ERA inflation and injury. Things could break his way, and Maine might leverage those strikeout numbers and keep the walks and home runs down, beating that $7 prediction (something he hasn't done since 2007). Or luck could break the other way, and he could return significantly less, even getting injured and losing all value entirely.

Doesn't much sound like a good investment, does it? Sure, you can gamble a few bucks on Maine, and it's not the worst place to spend your budget, but don't depend on him to be your No. 2 (or even No. 3) starter. Leave that to the New York Mets.

Johnny Cueto | Cincinnati | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.9 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 4.41 ERA



Except for a slight dropoff in strikeout rate from 2008, Cueto actually did fairly well in 2009, producing numbers almost identical to his 2008 rookie season. The big hiccup came in July, his worst month of the year (1.026 OPS against, 4.7 BB/9, 8.16 ERA), which followed four straight months of dropping strikeout rates.

Cincinnati put him on the DL with an inflamed shoulder after a disastrous August start where he gave up 7 ER in just 2.2 IP against the lowly Nationals. This came at the tail end of a string where he lost 7 of 8 starts, beginning with a 22-1 lambasting at the hands of the Phillies, who hung 9 ER on him in 0.2 IP. During that losing stretch, he gave up 4+ ER in six of the seven losses, the exception being a start against the Cardinals when he left with a tight hip flexor after two innings of work, having surrendered "just" one run.

The speculation is that Cueto's World Baseball Classic work may have tired him out or left him ill-prepared for the season, yet another strike against the international tournament in the eyes of MLB fans. Whatever the reason, he missed the minimum before returning, refreshed, to the rotation. He rebounded to win five of his final six starts (.711 OPS against, 3.9 BB/9, 3.63 ERA). It doesn't look like that shoulder problem will be any concern going forward for one of the bright spots in a young Reds rotation that gets more impressive each season.

The only area of Cueto's game that's significantly different from 2008 is that strikeout rate, which fell by a little more than a strikeout per game. That's undoubtedly from that midseason tired-arm spell; his K rate after returning from the DL was 7.8 K/9. Expect to see his strikeouts return to more robust levels in 2010. Otherwise, he improved his walk rate slightly from 2008, held home runs down, and even nudged his groundball rate downwards from 0.95 GB/FB to 1.02. You can see all of these changes on the GP mini-browser except the last one, which only looks the same due to rounding. His FIP dropped as a result of this improvement between 2008-9, while his xFIP rose a bit (again, due to HR rate normalizing).

All this consistent production makes for remarkable agreement among us prognosticators. GP is at the high end of the ERA scale for Cueto in 2010, but nearly everyone sees an ERA in the 4.2-4.5 range, a WHIP around 1.30, and about 7 strikeouts and 3 walks per 9 IP. Cueto's young, and the Reds have held his innings down below 175 IP in the past two seasons, reducing any injury questions that last year's DL stint might have raised. With Edinson Volquez out for TJS, Cueto rises to No. 3 in the rotation and becomes the best young pitcher the Reds have in the majors, at least until Aroldis Chapman shows his stuff.

Because he's young and is still learning to keep the ball down and in the yard, he's an ERA risk, and the fringe-y walk rates give him that decidedly average WHIP (within .02 of league average in both '08 and '09). So don't be taken in by the youth and the strikeout rates, as he represents moderate risk, and will still get shelled now and again, particularly with the Great American Home Run Park as his home venue. Some luck and slight improvement could see him beat that $4 GP forecast, but it won't be by much. Unless you're in a keeper league, 24-year-old power pitchers with elevated HR tendencies and mild control problems aren't the best investments.

Spring Training is just beginning, but there's still plenty of time to download a 16-page sample of Graphical Player 2010 and buy a copy to prep for the season. And don't forget to check the index for all the players I've covered this offseason, and leave suggestions for other players to cover in the comments below.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Street 2010-02-26T06:00:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl-0219/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl-0219/#When:06:00:15 Adam Kennedy | Washington | 2B
2009 Final Stats: .289/.348/.410



In 2009, Kennedy went from failing to crack the Rays' Opening Day roster to starring for the A's, putting up his best numbers in years. It's tempting to see this as a case of an older player enjoying a youthful resurgence after being challenged, and the Nationals certainly bought into this when they signed Kennedy. Despite having Cristian Guzman and Ian Desmond as infield options, Washington shelled out $1.25M to Kennedy to be their starting 2B in 2010.

Having Desmond and Guzman in hand may be the key to understanding this signing, as Desmond is expected to slide into the SS role at some point this season, at which point either Guzman or Kennedy would emerge as the starter, or even share the position in a platoon. Though a switch-hitter, Guzman has always hit better against LHP (43 points better than vs. RHP), while Kennedy hits 111 points better against RHP. Why platoon a 2B who had a .758 OPS in 2009? Well, for one thing, he's a 34-year-old, and they don't tend to break out suddenly. His H% spiked, particularly at the start of the year and the end of the year, two months when his production also soared. In between, he was the same old Kennedy we've seen before, putting up a .246/.294/.343 line that's more like what we'd expect.

The other spike was in SB, cracking 20 for the first time since 2003. But that only stands out in comparison to his weak numbers the past two seasons, in a part-time role playing for Tony "What, Me Steal?" LaRussa. The fact is, he had just as many opportunities in 2009 as he had in 2006 (before he joined the Cards), but he just made more of those chances last season. That's probably equal parts luck and veteran savvy; given decent PT, I'd expect around 15 SBs, but probably not 20+ again.

And that PT is definitely an issue. If Kennedy or Guzman struggles, Riggleman may not wait long before inserting Desmond into the lineup, assuming he's not already there at the end of spring training. Even if Kennedy does stay in the starting lineup all year, long, GP sees him putting up numbers just like he did in 2008, which are not that impressive. A full-time gig will add to Kennedy's counting stats, which could push his value into the double digits, and since he can play 3B, he could sneak in some starts there if Zimmerman has a minor injury, but he's not a long-term replacement there.

Even if everything comes together for Kennedy and he plays all (or most) of the time, he's still not going to be much of an option in mixed leagues. Deeper NL leagues can use him as a MIF option, but he's not starting 2B material in your fantasy league, which could also be true of his time with Washington. He's a late-round, low-dollar gamble at best for you; don't believe his feel-good story from 2009.

Chien-Ming Wang | Washington | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.2 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 9.64 ERA



A season and a half lost to injury can make you forget how incredible Wang was in his first three Yankee seasons. He won 50 games in 85 starts, the fastest Yankee ever to that mark, and recorded the first back-to-back 19-win seasons since Tommy John in 1979-80. Then he hurt his foot running the bases in interleague play, demonstrating one good baseball reason to nix the popular scheduling twist: AL pitchers aren't used to running the bases. He rushed his rehab, screwed up his mechanics, and spent 2009 stinking it up on the mound before going under the knife for shoulder surgery.

Teams were interested in signing Wang, however, even though he still hasn't thrown off a mound, and won't do so until April or May. When he does, the Nats (and everyone else) will see if Wang can return to the form he showed in New York, as a devastating sinkerballer who could keep the ball in the yard better than any pitcher in baseball. As you see in his mini-browser, he's got unimpressive K and BB rates, but those groundball rates are amazing. When you combine that with HR/9 rates that were the best in MLB in 2006 and the best in the AL in 2007, you get the kind of seasons Wang had with the Yankees.

Sinkerballers manage to succeed despite those low ratios and other warning signs—his elevated LOB% rates would suggest regression, but when you induce as many ground balls as Wang, you can escape more situations with men on base. With all the balls that get pounded into the ground when he's on the mound, he can maintain that 4.4 HR/FB% he had before the injury. It's also hard to predict someone with these kind of peripherals, which is why GP and other projection systems are so pessimistic about him; from a statistical perspective, everything screams "regression," but I don't think most systems correct for extreme groundballers like Wang.

The truth is, his skills and his injuries make him difficult for anyone to get a handle on how he might do after nearly 18 months of being off his game. The Nationals did about as well as can be expected, given the circumstances, as they paid just $2M to find out what he'll do. The story about his signing indicates there's "no timetable for his return," which is never a good sign, and all the more reason why you should take extreme care with Wang. He's moving to a new town, a new league, and a new ballpark, an awful lot of variables to throw on top of a guy who's also coming back from injury.

The ballpark may not be too important, given Wang's ability to hold down the home run, and the league is also less important when you're looking at a guy who throws his sinker 75% of the time ("Scouting report? We don't need no stinkin' scouting reports!"). What's more important is the defense behind him. New York's defensive efficiency in 2006-7 (when Wang was with them) was among the best in the league, while Washington's was third-worst in the NL in 2009. The UZR/150 of the 2006 Yankees (-10.9, worst in baseball) was significantly lower, but their 2007 rating at least got them into positive territory (1.1)—the 2009 Nats (-3.2) fell somewhere in between.

It's hard to compare the 2009 and 2010 Nats, as the 2009 version had 115 different lineups, but looking only at his future infield, so important to a sinkerballer, Dunn-Kennedy-Guzman-Zimmerman comes out to a career 9.5 UZR/150, largely on the shoulders of Zimmerman's 12.0 rating (Dunn is an unsurprising -17.9). And it should be noted that Kennedy's rating over the last four years at 2B was 1.8; he gets a big boost from his younger years.

That's not too bad and could help Wang overcome some of the other changes he'll be facing in 2010. The injury recovery is clearly the biggest issue, and his late start will also detract from his value. His history makes him a great late-round pick or low-dollar gamble, but let other owners throw more than a buck or two away on him. If you're in a straight draft league, Wang is one of those shrewd DL picks you can grab at the end of the draft or early in the season to stash until you see whether he returns to his old ways.

Elijah Dukes | Washington | OF
2009 Final Stats: .250/.337/.393



The clock's running out on Dukes, who managed to once again disappoint. Between injuries and a general tendency to cause more fireworks off the field than on it (remember the foofaraw in '06 about his declaration that he was quitting baseball?), Dukes has failed to deliver on his considerable promise. He didn't build on his impressive 2008 performance in 2009, a season highlighted by a little of Everything Dukes from him: a DL stint for a strained hammy, a court-ordered $40K settlement paid to his ex-wife for child support payments, and a month-long trip to Triple-A in July, when he became the odd man out after the Nats dealt for Nyjer Morgan.

With that kind of sporadic playing time and off-field distractions, it's not surprising that Dukes would regress from 2008, when he had much more consistent playing time. He did so poorly that when the team reportedly tried to deal Dukes midseason, they found no takers, so he enters 2010 as their starting RF, basically by default. But it's hard to imagine Dukes getting through a season without more bumps and bruises, either to his body or his psyche. If he can, he's still relatively young, and has speed and strength to burn.

In the minors, he has 49 HRs and 19 3Bs in six seasons, as well as 98 SBs in 134 chances. His .51 batting eye—200 walks and 389 strikeouts—isn't too impressive, but he improved on that each season in the minors, topping out at a .94 in Triple-A in 2006, his last lengthy stretch there. He's shown those same skills in the majors, more or less. His 970 PAs include 39 doubles, 8 triples, and 31 HRs, while his .64 BB/K ratio has fallen each year in the majors.

Fangraphs' breakdown reveals some interesting trends among that blur of numbers. His BB% and K% both dropped last season, thanks to a more aggressive approach at the plate. His contact rate improved slightly, as you can see from the mini-browser, though he's swinging more at everything in and out of the strike zone, mostly those inside the zone (78.4% of them, in fact). That hacktastic approach could come from his inability to handle the breaking ball, a weakness he's confessed to. He seemed to handle the curve fairly well in 2008 (5.47 wCB/C), then gave back those gains in 2009 (-1.74), but he's never handled the slider (-1.08 wSL/C career). As a result, he's seeing fewer fastballs than ever (49.1%) while more than a fourth of the pitches he sees are sliders. Maybe he needs Pedro Cerrano from Major League to sacrifice a chicken for him.

Until Dukes can straighten out his plate approach, pitchers are going to exploit that increasing aggressiveness, when coupled with the futility against a breaking ball. Barring a trade, there's not any competition for him within the organization, and Washington's unlikely to be terribly competitive, so he should get the chance to work out those kinks. This might be the last season he gets to see if he can straighten out his life, however, on and off the field.

If he can, his walk rate bodes well for a decent BA and his power-speed package is enticing. Other owners are likely to be soured on him (check out that -47 Sentiment), so he could turn out to be a good gamble. But with his track record, a gamble is certainly what he is, and hardly a lock even for the modest totals predicted by GP and most other scoring systems. An outfielder who hits in the .260s without cracking 20 HRs and barely registering double-digit SBs isn't too valuable outside an NL-only league. He could be worth a late-round flyer or lowball bid, but you'd better have a backup plan.

Josh Willingham | Washington | OF
2009 Final Stats: .260/.367/.496



Like Dukes, Willingham fought through some injury and off-field issues, but with Willingham, at least the latter don't seem endemic to him, and neither seem to be his fault. He's had some injury problems in the past, and this year those visited him in the form of a stomach virus, which combined with PT issues to slow his start considerably. A few days after the virus went away, his brother died, knocking him out for another week. When he returned, however, he stuck in the starting lineup, hitting .261/.358/.481 the rest of the way.

He had some definite fantasy highlights along the way, like the two grand slams on July 27 (part of a stretch where he hit in 15 of 16 games), his 2-HR, 6-RBI night on August 25, or a 2-HR, 4-RBI performance on July 11. That likely won a few head-to-head games for his owners or made the difference in some fantasy championships, and it certainly made a difference to his owners in Washington. They repeatedly entertained deals for him, which evidently involved a tap dance and maybe a few slow-dance numbers, since they did no more than entertain them—Willingham remains a Nat, with the starting LF job his going into spring training.

That's not to say that Washington won't deal him for the right package before Opening Day, since he's got definite value, and his mini-browser shows a guy with consistent and marketable skills. His contact rate has dropped a touch, but his walk rate has risen alongside it, keeping his BA in the mid-.260s. Last year's HR total was partly the product of a 17% HR/FB rate, but he's always had a fairly high HR rate in his career. That could mean a slight dip in his SLG next year, but full-time play should keep his home run totals steady, too.

GP agrees, giving him an RBI boost from a combination of full-time action and a slightly luckier HR situation—as GP's Nationals writer Paul Bugala points out, 15 of his 24 homers were solo jobs. He won't dazzle you with a sudden breakout at age 31, but more of the same would be just fine from Willingham. That's what makes him a nice mid-round selection worth that $16 projection, though not a lot more than that—note how he's been in that same neighborhood three of the past four years. And if he brings you a few of those awesome fantasy performances, so much the better.

Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee | SP
2009 Final Stats: 9.9 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 3.73 ERA



Gallardo broke Brewers' fans hearts in 2008 when he came roaring out of the gate, only to blow out his knee in his fourth start of the season—that he'd already come back earlier than expected from arthroscopic surgery on his other knee in February only made it worse. But he certainly looked impressive in 2009, with a 3.76 xFIP that almost makes you forget he's just 23, and an awesome strikeout rate that's second only to Tim Lincecum in the NL. A strong groundball rate adds an extra dimension to his skills, while the home run rate has more to do with bad luck (his HR/FB was 12.3%) than poor pitch placement. A little bit of luck helped in his hit rate as well, as a .288 BABIP should see some correction in the future.

The one big blemish on Gallardo's mini-browser is his 4.6 BB/9 rate, which isn't all that surprising from a young power pitcher, but it is a blemish nonetheless and one of the reasons why his ERA and WHIP are elevated. Looking behind the numbers, his 78 LOB% points towards potential ERA regression, possibly by as much as a run. That's mitigated a little bit by that groundball rate, but it's also cause for mild concern. GP sees this as being a bit of a wash, with a year almost identical to the one he had.

The great thing about Gallardo is his age, which will allow him to improve and adjust and refine his skill. He should learn control and bring down that walk rate, possibly at the cost of some strikeouts, but it's a tradeoff that his new pitching coach Rick Peterson is likely to encourage. And his age also helps his health profile, which is only marred by his knee problems. Fortunately for him, those knee surgeries shouldn't concern a young pitcher, and the Brewers wisely shut him down early last year instead of pushing the limits of his arm.

As for his 2010 prospects, he plays in a good pitcher's park, and has strong defense up the middle from Escobar and Gomez, though Weeks and McGehee could use some help. Elsewhere on the diamond, Hart and Fielder hold their own, while Ryan Braun has been fairly miserable from a UZR perspective; if Mat Gamel ends up at third, he might compete with Braunie for Worst Mitt in Milwaukee.

This still makes Gallardo an excellent keeper choice, and a very good value for next season for redraft leagues. Some regression is certainly possible, particularly with that defense, but so is a nice step forward for a kid who's shown guts and determination on his fast path to stardom. That $15 return seems very reasonable, and I see no reason to not go a few bucks beyond that if you really love this guy. Just keep in mind he's still pretty green, and some bumps are quite likely.

There's still time to download a 16-page sample of Graphical Player 2010 and buy a copy to prep for the season. And don't forget to check the index for all the players I've covered this offseason, and leave suggestions for other players to cover in the comments below.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Street 2010-02-19T06:00:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl-0212/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl-0212/#When:06:00:15 Jason Bay | New York | OF
2009 Final Stats: .267/.384/.537



Bay, always a pull hitter, put some loft on his swing in 2009 to clear the Green Monster, with somewhat predictable results. He recorded a career low of .68 in GB/FB and, not coincidentally, a career high with 49.1 FB%. Aided by a 19.7% HR/FB, his highest since 2004, he put up his best SLG since 2005, and set a career high in HRs, while also exceeding 2.00 Bash. On the downside, his BA dropped to its second-lowest level ever, right behind that awful 2007 you see in his mini-browser. You can also see his poor contact rate in 2009, which is partly to blame for that low BA; the rest is likely due to that new approach at the plate.

Much of his other skills are pretty much where you might expect them—his K% was higher than it has been lately, as was his BB%, but both are in line with his career averages. He was better in both departments with the Pirates, so his return to the NL might see him reverse some of those trends. Of greater importance would be the new environment he finds himself in: Citi Field. Gone is the Green Monster, 310 feet from home (and 37 feet high), and in its place is a fence 335 away and 15 feet high. The Mets announced this week that they're cutting the center field wall in front of the Home Run Apple in half, but that won't do much for a righty pull hitter like Bay.

The changed LF dimension could encourage him to try and lift the ball a bit less, however, even as it cuts back his power numbers. Fenway gave him more doubles (18 vs. 11 away from home) while it took away his homers (15 at home vs. 21 away), combining to drop 11 points of SLG at home, not all that significant. That says to me that it's unlikely that power shift in Citi will be all that dramatic, but it should still happen.

His counting numbers should drop somewhat with the Mets, who scored a massive 201 fewer runs than Boston did in 2009. New York will have a healthy Jose Reyes and (post-surgery) Carlos Beltran, while David Wright should have a better year, so it's not as bad as it looks at first blush, and they'll give him chances to drive runs in. He might not score as many runs, but getting into that 100-R/100-RBI neighborhood in his mini-browser isn't too much of a stretch.

GP also sees more steady production from Bay, though that low contact rate keeps us pessimistic that he'll crest .300, as he did in 2005. Combined with his modest HR potential, that drops his value in most leagues, counteracted a bit by the just-double-digit steals he'll bring you. He remains a top-flight option in OBP or other sabermetric leagues, where having a .900+ OPS outfielder is a great asset. For most owners, however, he's an excellent bet to return that $25 investment GP recommends—just don't go too much higher than that, as he remains just on the fringes of elite OFs, but is a solid investment nonetheless.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta | RP
2009 Final Stats: 14.9 K/9, 3.3 K/BB, 1.72 ERA



The Braves replaced the talented but injury-prone lefty-righty endgame combo of Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano by signing the talented but injury-prone lefty-righty endgame combo of Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito. Saito's elbow scared everyone but Boston off before the 2009 season, while Wagner woke up from 2008 Tommy John surgery to find that K-Rod had taken his closer's role in New York.

Unlike the Gonzo-Soriano combo, Wagner is clearly the closer in Atlanta, with Saito as the righty setup man and closer-in-waiting they hope they'll never have to use. And the one question that can't be definitively answered with Wags is how he will rebound from that TJS. The good news is that he got to work his way back with about 22 innings of work last year, some of it at the minor-league level, and he's had the offseason to recover.

There isn't much bad news here, since Wagner looked strong in the short time he was on the mound in 2009, even if almost none of it was in high-leverage situations. We can't draw too many conclusions, as most of the work was with an AL team in Fenway, a rather idiosyncratic park. Still, what little we saw looked good, with strong strikeout numbers, and a 94 mph fastball that's consistent with the mild velocity decline he started showing in 2007. He threw the slider, too, which probably tells us the elbow is OK.

One way to project his potential in 2010 is to look at the team and park he's going to. Atlanta was below average in defensive efficiency in 2009 (their .685 was 5 points below NL average, and only four teams did worse), and (as I detailed in my Tommy Hanson writeup), the Braves' defense will be largely the same in 2010. He does move to a slightly more pitcher-friendly park, at least when compared to his time in Philly—Shea is nearly identical to Turner Field, both in terms of Park Factor and actual dimensions. Atlanta plays in a tough division and may not win a ton of games, but there's not always a direct correlation between saves and victories. If anything, their somewhat-tepid offense may lead to more close games.

The health question is the overriding one, undoubtedly why the Braves felt the need to sign both Saito and Wagner. Wags passed a physical, and TJS recovery has become so mundane as to be a virtual ritual for young pitchers. Wagner, however, is not a young pitcher, and surgery recovery combined with the natural aging process of a guy who'll turn 39 midseason raises a moderate red flag.

GP remains rather bullish on his prospects, and most projection systems see him with an ERA around 3 and a WHIP in the 1.15 territory, both excellent marks. His reduced velocity will likely lead to fewer strikeouts, and a rise in walks is also possible. Considering the injury factor, Wagner certainly drops from the top tier of fantasy closers, but he's still a very strong option with an outstanding track record. I'd call him a good buy, particularly if other owners are scared off by his TJS.

Carlos Gonzalez | Colorado | OF
2009 Final Stats: .284/.353/.525



Two different teams—Oakland and Arizona—gave up on CarGo's massive potential before Colorado finally saw him blossom. After getting called up in June, he took a little while to get going, and then exploded in August, part of the Jim Tracy Revival that launched the Rockies into the postseason. Gonzalez hit .371/.432/.714, vaulting to the leadoff spot, where he hit a tidy .300/.379/.573, including a whopping .333/.409/.654 leading off an inning and .391/.481/.913 as the first batter in the game.

While he's obviously a lock for a starting role as Colorado's left fielder, it's unlikely he'll lead off in 2010. As I discussed in December, that honor probably belongs to Dexter Fowler, who has better wheels than CarGo (54 SBs in 83 attempts over seven minor-league seasons) and a better batting eye. Tracy has yet to tip his hand about his leadoff man, and he could stick with what worked last season and leave Gonzalez there. But his power-hitting abilities (.484 minor-league SLG, including 161 2Bs and 88 HRs in 2729 PAs) and those aforementioned slow wheels (relative to Fowler, anyway) should put him lower in the order in the long term.

Of greater concern should be his plate discipline, as well as the small sample space we're looking at. He was certainly excellent in the last two months of 2010, but those represent just 209 PAs, and the 38% hit rate shows that a few balls fell his way. As for his aggressiveness at the dish, that 8% walk rate is an improvement over his career averages, as is his 25.2 K%, but neither are much better, and both spell a fair amount of streakiness for Gonzalez. Putting up contact rates in the mid-70s will also suppress any rise in batting average.

GP, as ever, is restrained in its estimation, and it's easy to see why with these markers. Decent power, decent speed, and decent batting average all add up to that $12 valuation, which is likely to seem like heresy to Rockies fans. That's because his breakout has been so long expected that when it arrived, people expect it to just continue. But experience with other prospects, as well as supporting stats like this, says that you should expect some struggles from Gonzalez in 2010.

That he's been so highly touted and had such a great finish to 2010 means other owners will overpay. Let them waste their money and save yours for more profitable investments. If you can get CarGo at a discount, do so, while keeper owners will have to exercise patience through the inevitable ups-and-downs of 2010. Gonzo's going to be good, but that trajectory's going to be a bit flatter than most people expect.

Ricky Nolasco | Florida | SP
2009 Final Stats: 9.5 K/9, 4.4 K/BB, 5.06 ERA



Nolasco could be the poster child for FIP and its limitations. After extremely solid ratios in many areas, Nolasco ended 2009 with a 3.85 FIP, yet he had that awful ERA you see above. By all accounts, he had a fine year, but ERA, the metric that so many baseball fans (and fantasy leagues) use to measure pitchers completely failed to reflect that. But FIP tells you how good (or bad) a pitcher was, not what his ERA should have been, if only because ERA is based on lots of factors.

As always, luck is one the factors in Nolasco's 5.06 whopper—his career-worst .336 BABIP was well north of where it should have been. His 61 LOB% was another career low, and a further indicator that he ran into some bad luck. Fortunately, that kind of lowball LOB% performance usually indicates a rebound the following year. Because strand rate can indicate poor pitching as well as bad luck (bad pitchers are bad whether the bases are empty or full), it's not a lock that he'll improve, but it's very likely.

That he should do better is shown by those very nice strikeout and control rates you see in his GP mini-browser, which also tells you that both have been improving the past few years. His Fangraphs pitch data shows the improvement coming from his offspeed stuff, including a better slider and a new splitter. His fastball was actually his worst pitch, plummeting from 4.7 runs above average in 2008 to -15.5 in 2009. That could point the finger at John Baker; batters had an OPS 108 points higher with him behind the plate in 2009. Maybe he's calling for the fastball when he shouldn't, something we'll find out in 2010, when he's behind the plate again.

Another sign of caution comes from his weak home run rates, a result of being a borderline flyball pitcher with a slightly above-average HR rate in a home-run friendly home park. That's not likely to change, which gives his ERA a fair amount of instability. But if you're looking for a bargain pitcher with a very good upside who will deliver strikeouts and keep the WHIP down, Nolasco fits that bill.

Other owners might be scared off by that 5.06 ERA, or lose him in the long shadow of Josh Johnson, but Nolasco represents a great investment opportunity for you. The risky home run rates in one of baseball's toughest divisions should warn you against overbidding, but unless the other owners in your league read this column, you may not have to.

Chris Young | Arizona | OF
2009 Final Stats: .212/.311/.400



Chris Young nearly joined the 30-30 club as a rookie in 2007 (one double and three steals away from a 30-30-30 season, in fact) and placed fourth in ROY voting. That made 2008 a letdown for Young, when he failed to exceed 20 SBs or 25 HRs, even as he cracked 42 doubles. But that 2008 letdown seemed like a miracle next to 2009, in which Young did so miserably that he was sent down to Triple-A to straighten himself out. This seems insulting, except when you see that he was hitting .194/.297/.359 at the time, with 95 strikeouts, 45 walks, just 7 HRs and 11 steals. Young spent two weeks in Triple-A, and did well enough when he returned (.263/.351/.508) to bring his final BA to the still-sad state you see above.

So what happened to Young in 2010?

His swing, for one thing. Whether he wanted to reach that 30 HR plateau again or just wasn't seeing the ball well (or both), he started hitting the ball in the air more than ever before. His fly ball rate rose from 43% to 56%, pushing his infield fly rate to an absurd 22.4%. A guy with wheels like his should be hitting the ball on the ground more. A lot more.

His batting eye is clearly off, too. His strikeout rate has risen for the past four seasons, even as his walk rate has risen. That's happened while he's actually become more selective in his swings, taking cuts at fewer pitches outside the strike zone while maintaining excellent contact rates (85%) on those pitches inside the strike zone. From a statistician's perspective, that's not just contradictory, it's worrisome. If a hitter becomes less aggressive, and makes better contact, but his strikeouts continue to rise, that suggests he's losing confidence.

Another troublesome part of Young's skill set are his platoon splits. In his career, he's hit just .223 against RHP, which hovered around .235 in 2007-8. That plunged to .196 in 2009, while his .262 performance against LHP was only 9 points off career norms. And looking at some of the 2009 trends through the platoon lens yields even more interesting results. While an insane 63% of the balls he hit against lefties are fly balls (compared to just 53% vs. RHP), 25% of those fly balls vs. RHP became infield flies, and just 8% turned into home runs. Against lefties, 15% of those fly balls stayed in the infield, while 11% of them left the yard. This is no doubt why his 2009 BABIP against lefties was .319 (8 points higher than usual), while his 2009 BABIP against righties collapsed to .254, 14 points below normal.

Those are the most severe splits in those areas of his career, indicating a much different approach depending on who he's facing—or at least, radically different effects. That's got to mess with a guy's swing, and it may also mean that Young is just thinking too much, often the worst thing a batter can do. In any case, Young was clearly a mess in 2009, and that small 135-PA sample at the end of the season does little to inspire confidence.

BP sees a rebound coming, and that kind of dead cat bounce isn't too surprising—Young's got nowhere to go but up. Assuming that happens, he'll bring some SBs and HRs, while punishing your batting average. I don't like his skill set to beat that GP projection; even reaching it would seem like a triumph. The D-backs are on the hook for Young until 2013, and the poor return they've gotten on their investment makes him utterly unpalatable as trade bait. Still, Gerardo Parra could step in at any time, and A.J. Hinch has shown no compunction about removing struggling starters.

About the only advantage to Young is that other owners will be so sour on him that you could pick him up at a bargain price. In spite of how awful his 2009 season was, and how his skills are failing to coalesce, he could end up being a steal at the right price. You may find him available for much less than that $16 valuation, and he makes a great late-round gamble in snake drafts. Just don't push your luck, or that auction price, very much.

Pitchers and catchers report next week, but you can still download a 16-page sample of Graphical Player 2010 or buy a copy to prep for the season. And don't forget to check the new index for all the players I've covered this offseason, and leave suggestions for other players to cover in the comments below.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Street 2010-02-12T06:00:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl4/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl4/#When:06:00:15 Lance Berkman | Houston | 1B
2009 Final Stats: .274/.399/.509



Big Puma is still just as big, but he looked more link a rhino than a puma in 2009, and fantasy owners probably had more colorful names for him than Big Rhino during August, when he failed to go yard, particularly since it followed a July when he cleared the fence just once. Injuries certainly held him back, both in time played and in the quality of his ABs when he did take the field. His calf, which landed him on the DL for 20 days, hampered his speed and power, while his back and his wrist diminished his power. All these dings and dents aren't a good sign for a guy turning 34 next week, even if that DL stint was his first since '05.

Still, his core skills remain solid. In the mini-browser, you can see that Berkman's BB% climbed a bit, while his contact skills stayed right around his career norms. The 2% differential in contact and the 4% drop in H% explain part of the change in his stats from 2008 to 2009. His steady Bash and HR/FB over that same two-year period (he was actually a bit luckier in the latter category in '09) also shows that he performed largely as expected when he was on the field in 2009. Looking over his career marks shows that these HR/FB rates were much more consistent with Berk's career norms than the spike in 2006-07.

So there's very little other than injuries to explain 2009, and little other than typical age-related decline to expect from Berkman going forward. That crazy rash of steals in 2008 isn't going to come back again anytime soon, though he should toss 5-10 swipes into the mix in 2010—remember, he did collect seven in 2009 despite that gimpy calf. He should rebound in the power department, too, with most predictions putting him back into the 30-30 2B-HR category.

The one problematic trend in Berkman's game has been his increasing struggles against southpaws. 2009 saw his OPS sink 272 points lower against lefties, a gap that's been widening every year since 2007. His switch-hitting is supposed to protect against this—he's obviously too old to go back to being a lefty, but it does make him a better bet against RHP than LHP. Don't expect a platoon anytime soon, but it is a caution flag to wave over an otherwise excellent hitting profile.

2010 will tell us a lot about his overall health, and a further rash of dents and dings would be troubling. Though he's not of the Babe Ruth-David Wells school of conditioning, a little more slimming down would set my mind at ease in this category—less Big might lead to more Puma. Now that he's entrenched at 1B, however, there's little chance that the coaching staff will push him in that direction. Too bad on both accounts, as more SBs and OF eligibility would drive Berkman's value up nicely.

But he remains a very good bet to rebound strongly in 2010, and that drop in Sentiment means your fellow owners may read too much into 2009. He's no longer among the 1B elite, but he's a virtual lock to push (or crack) .900 OPS again, making him still top-10 material.

Colby Rasmus | St. Louis | OF
2009 Final Stats: .251/.307/.407



Considering 2009 was just his fourth year as a pro, and his first in MLB, he didn't do too horribly. But expectations were so high for him—some had him as a preseason ROY fave—that his not-too-shabby performance was regarded as a letdown, particularly after his OPS slid 215 points after the break. But even that's to be expected from a kid grinding through his first MLB season, on a team making a playoff push in a competitive division.

Looking behind the stats, there's some good news and bad news, but nothing catastrophic from a kid who just turned 24 in August. His 80% contact rate was consistent with his minor-league averages, and his uninspiring .38 BB/K isn't too far below his .57 minor-league average, which did improve from .27 to .69 as he rose from rookie ball to Triple-A. Patience might be hard to preach to Rasmus, who had his best month (a .333/.333/.556 June) without drawing a single walk in 84 ABs.

June was also his best month for BABIP, an ungodly .377 that plummeted to .224 in July, dragging his OPS down nearly 200 points. Since that was the beginning of the end for Rasmus, BA-wise, it's safe to assume that his bat was losing steam as the season progressed. He was also suffering from a heel problem that began bothering him in June and continued to plague him most of the season. That had to affect his production down the stretch, too.

The one surprising trend was his punchless performance against lefties. In his minor-league career, Rasmus only showed a .34 OPS preference towards RHP, but in 2009 that yawned to a .309 chasm. Given his history, that should reverse itself in the future, but it's something to keep an eye on.

You can see from his GP projection, as well as the ones on Fangraphs, that he's not expected to improve all that much in 2010. Rasmus is valuable for his overall athleticism and has a ton of tools, but they're not quite ready yet. Assuming his heel is—er—healed in 2010, there's some upside to those projections, but his underlying skills don't merit a lot of speculation, even in SBs. Erik Manning, who covers the Cardinals for GP (and writes for Fangraphs), notes in his commentary that you can "cut his SB forecast in half" because of LaRussa's conservative tendencies in that department.

Rasmus' place in the batting order also bears watching, since hitting in front of Albert Pujols is better than hitting behind him, at least until Rasmus starts to deliver on his power expectations. He hit all over the lineup in 2009, slotting everywhere except third, and spent most of his time in the No. 2 spot, where he also had the most success (at least among 20+ AB samples). Giving both Pujols and Matt Holliday an opportunity to move him over and in would give another boost to his worth.

Keeper owners shouldn't sour on Rasmus so quickly, but redraft owners can safely let him sink, particularly since he's a slow starter. As a low-dollar/late-round selection, Rasmus could be the kind of guy who hits the waiver wire early. Moderate your expectations and don't believe the hype, while still respecting his obvious talent. He'll bring you some value, just not too much, and not in proportion to expectations.

Everth Cabrera | San Diego | SS
2009 Final Stats: .255/.342/.361



In its 2009 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America cautioned against the Padres moving Cabrera to the bigs too quickly: "It's hard to envision him going straight from low Class A to playing regularly in the big leagues in one year." Because he was a Rule 5 draftee, he had to be on their 40-man roster or the Padres would lose him, so they ignored BA's advice and brought him up when the Josh Wilson/Luis Rodriguez tandem wasn't cutting it.

Cabrera is a prototypical shortstop prospect before we got used to hitters like Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez: he's got a great glove, speed to burn, and knows which end of the bat to hold. Actually, the latter categorization is a bit unkind. That mini-browser shows he held his own well enough in contact rate and did quite well in the walk department, particularly when you remember that this guy only has 29 PAs above Single-A.

That kind of accelerated timetable is usually reserved for the most elite prospects, not Rule 5 draftees, who are the baseball equivalent of sloppy seconds. That the Pads allowed him to be moved up so quickly speaks to their lack of institutional depth at this position, but also to their evident confidence in Cabrera. And it's a confidence that you should share—with some reservations.

No matter how much he was rushed to the majors, one area that needs no further development in Cabrera is his speed. His coaches called him the fastest guy in Low-A South Atlantic League. In the Sally League, he reached base 195 times, and stole 73 bases. That's a pretty astonishing number (even for Class A ball), particularly since he was only caught 16 times. It means he tried to steal nearly half the time that he got out of the batter's box safely. I've got a new nickname for Cabrera: "Greenlight." (By comparison, the 2009 SB leaders Michael Bourn and Jacoby Ellsbury attempted a steal about a third of the time they reached base).

Those kind of stats are what make fantasy owners go all ga-ga over Cabrera. As you might imagine, Cabrera wasn't nearly as aggressive in 2009—he reached safely 142 times and attempted just 33 steals, getting caught eight times. Big-league pitchers and catchers are much better than their Class A counterparts, and they got wise to Cabrera quickly: he swiped 10 of 11 in July, his first full month with the Padres, but never had another double-digit month, declining to 7 of 9 in August and 5 of 10 in September.

So don't expect Cabrera to swipe 70 in 2010; GP sees him getting about halfway there, which feels pretty good. Before he steals second, Cabrera's got to get to first, though he shows very good core skills in that department. His BB% of 10.5% is entirely consistent with his minor-league trends, as is his 62% groundball percentage, an excellent mark for a kid with his wheels.

What he doesn't have is power, probably the only thing you could really quibble about in a player like this. His minor-league SLG was .387, with just seven home runs in 877 ABs. That speed will deliver him doubles (40 in the minors) and triples (13), and if he can find the gaps at PETCO, he'll manage a respectable SLG. He just won't do it next year—only Marcel sees him cracking a .400 SLG. GP is more pessimistic than most, but that's typical of how it treats younger players.

Whether his SLG is above or below .350, Cabrera's a hot commodity in fantasy, and if he ends up atop the Padres lineup (as he did more and more as 2009 progressed) his value gets another bump. He and a platoon-bound Tony Gwynn Jr. will share time at the leadoff spot, at least until one or the other emerges, so you can pencil Cabrera in for at least 40% of the time at the top spot. Granted, San Diego's not the most productive lineup in the game, and PETCO isn't the friendliest for run-scoring, but having Adrian Gonzalez to drive you in is a nice place for a leadoff hitter to be.

So take Cabrera for what he is: a potential fountain of steals and good source of runs who might drag at your BA a bit, while delivering virtually nothing in the power department. If you can handle that kind of baggage, he'll be a great addition to your lineup.

Drew Storen | Washington | RP
2009 Final Stats (minors): 11.9 K/9, 6.1 K/BB, 1.95 ERA



Matt Capps | Washington | RP
2009 Final Stats: 7.6 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, 5.80 ERA



Looking at their 2009 numbers, you'd wonder why there would be any competition at all for the closer's role in Washington, but this isn't the whole picture. The GP projections give a better idea of how much more similar these two are projected to be, plus Washington has signed quite a few endgame options. The Nats signed Brian Bruney and Eddie Guardado, either of whom have a leg up on a youngster like Storen, who was just drafted in 2009.

Let's look at the frontrunner first. Capps had a career-awful 2009 in Pittsburgh, putting up career worsts in ERA, WHIP, BB%, H/9 and HR/9. Some say this goes back to shoulder problems that shut him down for nearly two months in 2008, which screwed up his mechanics, leading to elbow problems early in 2009, as well as that lost season. According to Capps, he just didn't have a lively fastball, his bread-and-butter pitch, which neither confirms nor denies the injury theory.

For what it's worth, his excuse is supported by Fangraphs' pitch stats on him. He used his heater nearly 10% less than he did in 2008, and his wFB plummeted from 9.6 to -3.9, the biggest drop in a year when all his other pitches also stunk. On the other hand, that the Pirates would nontender a guy whom they still have under team control until 2012 could indicate that they knew something was seriously wrong.

Whatever its roots, the problem showed itself in Capps' BABIP, which shot up to .370 in 2009 from .272 the year before. His HR rate also doubled itself from 2008, hitting a 13.5% career high. These trends either represent luck or, if his stuff was as bad as he says, a serious change in his pitching repertoire. He passed a physical in Washington, which would seem to rule out any serious injury, but a certain amount of caution has to be exercised in a Capps evaluation. As you can see, GP predicts his second-worst year ever, while other predictions are a bit kinder—only Marcel comes as close in its pessimism.

That risk is no doubt why Washington picked up Bruney and Guardado, but no matter who's coming into the ninth inning, he's just keeping the seat warm for Drew Storen. Washington chose Storen, a Stanford sophomore, as the 10th overall pick in the 2009 amateur draft. By the end of the same year, he had made it all the way to Double-A, and the GP mini-browser shows how completely he dominated three levels.

Storen was a starter and reliever at Stanford, but he's quickly become a reliever because of his two excellent pitches. His two-seamer hits the mid-90s, while he's got a breaking ball (either a slider or a hard curve, depending on whom you listen to) with nice tilt. With a good changeup, he could be a starter, but his rocketing trajectory is clearly aimed at an endgame role. Paul Bugala, GP's Washington writer, sees him sliding into that role by the end of 2010. In that scenario, Capps, Bruney and Guardado would be excellent (if reluctant) mentors for Storen, while also providing plenty of fallback options.

Whether that's going to happen or not, it throws a wrench into the gears in deciding which Nat to draft in 2010. Capps has enough downside to him that the presence of Storen could tank his value entirely; the GP prediction you see was based on him remaining with the Pirates, since they were still expected to tender him a contract at presstime. It remains a fair assessment of his potential in 2010, though Capps could beat that projection if he proves healthy and successful, Washington exceeds expectations, and Storen's development stalls. That's a lot to ask for, of course; the good news comes in the form of that shockingly low Sentiment (100 is the lowest). Most of your fellow owners will be similarly skeptical, making him a very good bargain. Throw him into the mix early in your auction to see if you can grab him cheaply.

Storen, on the other hand, carries his own risk. His value will depend entirely on whether and when he makes the big-league club, and in what role. If Capps or Bruney manages to grab hold of the closer's job, Storen might not see the Nats at all in 2010. Keeper owners can speculate on his future, but it's hard to spend a lot of money on a player with just one year of professional ball under his belt.

The Nationals' very good decision to spread the risk around their bullpen makes things very tough on fantasy owners, as it complicates matters considerably. You could even draft both Capps and Storen and then watch Bruney end up in the closer's spot. And let's not forget that this is still the Nationals we're talking about—they're better than they were in 2009, but they play in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. Dividing up potential saves among three candidates piddles in the pool for all of them. If you take Capps or Bruney, it should be for cheap and with a strong backup plan.

Nate Schierholtz | San Francisco | OF
2009 Final Stats: .267/.302/.400



Schierholtz has proven himself in the minors without a doubt, hitting .308/.355/.516 in seven seasons, including two full tours at Triple-A Fresno. That's earned him some MLB time, but he's never gotten the traction to stick. As you can see in the mini-browser, 2007 was good enough for a 23-year-old, 2008 was small-sample awesome, and 2009 was a major letdown. Some of this had to do with the fact that the Giants seemed to want to corner the league in mediocre outfielders, preferably ones with long contracts.

San Fran finally got out from under its three-year, $23M deal to Randy Winn (who responded with an underwhelming .290/.346/.410, with 56 steals, in that span), but is still on the hook for the five-year, $60M deal they dished out to Aaron Roward before the 2009 season (he's returned the favor with a .266/.329/.414 line since then, including 251 strikeouts, 74 walks, and a disappointingly low number of exciting wall collisions). That doesn't count other young outfielders who've gotten time, like Fred Lewis (.258/.348/.390 in 2009), Eugenio Velez (.267/.308/.400 in 2009), John Bowker (.194/.247/.373 in 2009), or Andres Torres (the standout in the bunch, with .270/.343/.533 in 2009 in a platoon role with Velez).

With guys like these, it's hard to find room for Schierholtz, or so Giants' management says. Some of that's not entirely fair, since Schierholz missed some time with a strained left hip, and had a problem with a bulging disk in Spring Training. But still—this guy only gets 285 ABs against that kind of competition?

That's not to say that Schierholtz is amazing in every respect. The biggest knock against him is the breeze he generates at the plate—he whiffed at an 18% clip in the minors, which he's matched in the majors, while dropping his .33 BB/K rate in the minors to .25 in MLB. And Fangraphs shows that his pitch recognition and contact skills are hurting him, too. While he makes contact with 90% of pitches inside the zone, he swung at 35% of pitches outside the zone, making contact with a scant 57% of them. Hackers Pablo Sandoval (who swings at 43% of pitches outside the zone, making contact with 76% of them) and Vladimir Guerrero (who swings at 38% of pitches outside the zone, making contact with 66% of them) can afford that kind of wild swinging. Schierholtz can't.

If he can overcome this lack of selectiveness, he could thrive in the majors, and that power he showed in the minors can finally show itself in the majors, too. Right now, his primary competition comes from John Bowker or possibly Eugenio Velez, neither of whom should offer much of a battle. They could, however, eat into his playing time, particularly if Bochy continues to manage in such an egalitarian style. It's a battle to watch in Spring Training, but the more important subject for scrutiny should be his plate discipline. He spent the winter in Puerto Rico to work on his eye, so see if it's gotten any better before thinking of picking him up.

Assuming he gets the starting role—or even most of it—he offers moderate value, though he's below my personal threshold for outfielders of .800 OPS. NL-only leagues will find value there, but I don't see Schierholz breaking out. Solidifying his minor-league skills to cross that .800 threshold would be enough for me.

Spring Training's getting closer, but you can still download a 16-page sample of Graphical Player 2010 or order the book directly from ACTA Sports. And don't forget to check the new index for all the players I've covered this offseason, and leave suggestions for other players to cover in the comments below.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Street 2010-02-05T06:00:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl3/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-nl3/#When:05:59:15 Carlos Ruiz | Philadelphia | C
2009 Final Stats: .255/.355/.425



Philadelphia bought out the remaining years of Ruiz's arbitration with a three-year, $8.5M deal that includes a $5M option for 2013. This allowed Ruiz to cash in on a career year, and fortunately for the Phillies, the secondary skills behind that spike look somewhat sustainable, and only mildly influenced by luck.

As often happens in these spikes, Ruiz's up 2009 looks better because of a down 2008, when he hit just .219/.320/.300, thanks to a .237 BABIP and 4.9% HR/FB rate, both below normal for him. In 2009, his much-improved line was helped by a .266 BABIP and 8.1% HR/FB, much closer to expected levels.

On top of this, he improved his hit trajectory over 2008, when his GB rate rose to a career high with 54.3% and a 16.8% LD rate sunk to a career low. Even a catcher like Ruiz, who has average wheels (he's 120th among 209 1000-plus AB hitters in the past three years in 3B/H), will suffer from that kind of GB rate. It's also going to lead to fewer fly balls and (hence) HRs, which happened in 2008. In 2009, he went in the other direction, with a career high of 39.1 FB% and an 18.7 LD% that is only second to his small-sample 2006 19.4% rate. This also puts him pretty much exactly in line with the NL average in these areas.

Hitting the ball along a better trajectory is tied closely to seeing it better, something Ruiz has shown consistent improvement on since his debut. After starting with a BB/K rate of 0.63, it's risen all the way to a very judicious 1.21 last season. That comes entirely from his walk rate, which has also steadily climbed up to the 12.1% he posted in 2009, since his K% has hovered at around 12%, pointing to another solid skill Ruiz possesses: his contact skills. Check out the mini-browser to see that very sweet CT rate locked at 87-88%.

Normally, this kind of skill set would project a much higher BA for Ruiz, but with average footspeed, he's not going to leg out that many singles, and his focus on power—note that 1.67 Bash rate—is going to have him swinging for the fences more than driving for gaps in the defense. Still, that kind of contact-batting eye package means I wouldn't be surprised if he beats that BA projection.

Even if he doesn't, Ruiz is going to help you in OBP, as that improvement in the walk rate clearly foretells, and the CT rate will keep his BA in a decent range for catchers, if not a bit better. With the bar being so low for catchers, particularly in the Mauerless NL, Ruiz is still a guy you can count on for above-average production. Unfortunately for you, his great postseason, rebound year, and strong second half conspire to make other owners aware of his value, as that Sentiment shows. So beware of overpaying for a catcher who's a second-tier option, at best.

Hunter Pence | Houston | OF
2009 Final Stats: .282/.346/.472



Pence was arbitration-eligible for the first time in his career, and the Astros gave him a huge raise from $464K in 2009 to a tidy $3.5M in 2010. He didn't offer a tenfold improvement over 2008, though he did bounce back from a down year of .269/.318/.466 in 2008. Despite a30-point boost to OPS, Pence's counting numbers were largely unchanged from 08-09, with a few more SBs and a few less runs and RBIs from an Astros lineup that ranked 14th in the NL in R/G.

A midseason swoon in July and early August diluted a strong start from Pence, who also had to adjust to batting everywhere except leadoff, eighth and cleanup in that inconsistent Astros lineup. He spent much of his time in the five- and six-hole, which isn't the best place to develop a guy with a decent power-speed package. But he strikes out way too much (20% career) and walks too little (7%) to hit in the first two spots in the order and he's not going to slide into the third or fourth spot with Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee on the team, so he will likely remain there for the near future.

Pence has still stabilized his CT and H rates, no doubt why the GP and most other projections keep him in the same neighborhood for 2010. His rising GB rate is fine for a guy with speed, and an elevated HR rate somewhat compensates for the lower FB rate that results. It's also Exhibit A as to why he's not going to suddenly start cranking out 30+ HR seasons—note that if he nails his GP prediction for 2010, it'll be the third straight 25-HR season.

This moderate power production makes him a poor fit for the five- and six-holes, batting order positions that dampen another category he could contribute in: steals. With lumbering base-cloggers like Lee and Berkman in front of him, Pence isn't going to get many SB opportunities, where he could be boosting his fantasy value. Not that Pence has done much to leverage his speed. Though he's hit double-digits in steals each of the past three years, he's also been caught an increasing number of times each year, leading to a 54 SB% last year that's well below his 72% three-year average.

It seems, then, that WYSIWYG with Pence: decent power, adequate steals, and a good, but not great, BA. His BB/K rate peaked at .53 in 2009, showing some improvement over his 0.27 in his rookie year, and his CT rate is also league average. As for the lineup around him, there's little but maturing young players like Pence and Bourn to improve the Astros' offense, which essentially swapped Miguel Tejada for rookie Tommy Manzella and Geoff Blum for Pedro Feliz, an overall downgrade.

This all points to a very moderate outlook for Pence, who is as unlikely to post MVP numbers as he is to suddenly drop through the floor—although his batting eye and contact rate indicate the latter is the more likely of the two extremes. He's one of those names that still retains some cachet from his great rookie year (note the fat H% behind that performance), so other owners may go out on a limb for him. Don't do the same—as cliche as the saying has become, Pence is what he is; don't pay for more than that $21 prediction.

Bengie Molina | San Francisco | C
2009 Final Stats: .265/.285/.442



Among the Flying—er, Catching—Molina Brothers, Bengie is the one with pop (Yadier is the best all-around, and Jose is the shy one). He doesn't bring a whole lot more to the table than that power, but for fantasy owners, having a catcher who delivers nearly 20 HRs and around 80-90 RBI can be enough. His BA is never going to threaten .300 again (2008 was a combination of a spike in H% and a crazy blip in CT%), thanks to a walk rate that's slid from awful to nonexistent in the past four years (2005 was the last year he walked 20+ times).

His strikeout rate, once consistently around 10%, dipped below 8% in 2008, then shot up to almost 14% in 2009, but that's not the most worrisome trend for Molina. His FB rate has ratcheted up from 38% in 2006 to 53% in 2009, while his HR rate has fallen over the same period. Bengie's obviously changing his swing, turning it into the all-or-nothing uppercut that Charlie Brown made so infamous in Peanuts.

All-or-nothing is looking like what you might expect from Molina going forward, which (again) isn't such a bad thing, fantasy-wise. The concern in San Francisco (and therefore for fantasy owners, too) will be Buster Posey, the guy whose seat Molina's holding. They think Posey's too green to start out 2009 behind the plate, so he'll start the year in Triple-A, but he could start edging Molina out sooner rather than later. If Molina struggles or gets hurt, or if Posey quickly rounds into form, it might be much sooner. By the end of the year, Molina might be in a time-sharing situation.

Another consideration is where Molina might hit in the order. He spent nearly all of 2009 in the cleanup spot, which helped him drive in Pablo Sandoval. The Giants signed Aubrey Huff to be their cleanup hitter in 2010; if they stick to that, Molina loses a spot and has a hitter who (if you recall my article two weeks ago) is likely to struggle in that spot. If Bruce Bochy sticks to his guns and keeps Huff in the four-hole, Molina could see fewer RBI oportunities; if Molina owners are lucky, Bochy will do the right thing and slot Huff behind Molina.

GP sees a slight drop in Molina's production and value, based in part on diminished PT from his uncertain role at press time. He's going to beat those counting numbers—and that roto value prediction—in 2010, but he may not crack $15. The 2009 Giants ranked 13th in runs scored, and the 2010 version could be a bit better, depending on things like Sandoval's development, the production of newcomers Huff and Mark DeRosa, and the health of Freddy Sanchez's shoulder.

Those will all factor into that potential value increase, which you need to keep in mind when bidding on the Molina With Power. His dingers and RBIs are worth paying for, but a 35-year-old whose swing is slowly morphing into Charlie Brown's isn't the best place to invest extra dollars from your budget.

Doug Davis | Milwaukee | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.5 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 4.12 ERA



Remember at the fifth-grade dance when you were too shy to ask any of the really hot girls to dance, so you waited until the end of Survivor's "The Search Is Over" to find a partner, and the only one left was the kinda homely Tamara Hordinsky, the girl who lived down the street from you since first grade, but she was at least not as drop-down ugly as Agatha Pickston, and you held loosely to Mary's shoulders for the last agonizing thirty seconds or so, just so you could say you did what you said you were gonna do and dance with a girl?

OK, maybe that was just me. Me and the Milwaukee Brewers GM Doug Melvin. He swore up and down that he'd bring the Crew two starters this offseason, and grabbed Randy Wolf right off. Then he waited until the barrel was almost empty before signing Doug Davis to a one-year deal for $5.25M with an option for a second year. And Brewers fans may find themselves awkwardly embracing Davis the way I did Tamara Hordinsky those many years ago, waiting desperately for the dance to be over.

But at least Melvin signed someone, right? And Davis is, well, someone. If you can say something nice about Davis, it's that he's been consistent and healthy—consistently and healthily average. Except for thyroid cancer in 2008 (and let's face it, who can blame him for that?) Davis has pitched 190+ IP and started 33+ games every season since 2004, racking up a 62-68 record, with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP, in that span. He struck out 7.2 per 9 IP but also walked 4.1 per 9, which is why his WHIP is such a whopper (say that one five times fast!).

Still, he's a lefty teams can count on to take the mound every fifth day and soak up innings without being too awful. He brings strikeouts, and has tried to keep the ball down in the zone (he had a 47% GB rate in '07 and '08, which slipped to 43.1% in '09), staying on the edges of home run tolerance, right around league-average for 10% HR/FB. As he's aged, he's also relied more on his curve and cutter than his fastball—he used to bring the heat about half the time with Milwaukee but now throws it about once every four pitches, making up the difference with those other two pitches.

That's a sure sign of an aging pitcher learning to pitch and not just throw (not that Davis could ever bring the heat), and it's also why his strikeout rates have been gradually dropping. He'll bring that durability and handful of strikeouts to Milwaukee, where he'll likely slot in behind Gallardo and Wolf. GP projects him for a similar season in 2010, with an ERA around league average, a half-decent K rate that's offset by the poor walk rate.

Milwaukee has a defense in signing Davis: It's a small-market team without the money to sign a real stud like Ben Sheets (though they may regret the $4.75M more they could have spent on a guy with some upside to him). Don't let yourself fall into the same trap, waiting till the end of the draft, only to add Davis to your roster for $1—and getting the -$2 return GP predicts. Sometimes it's better to just forget about Tamara and Agatha altogether and just wait until the next song.

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh | RP
2009 Final Stats: 10.8 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.32 ERA



One of the big offseason questions in Pittsburgh—particularly after the departure of the intermittently effective Matt Capps to Washington—was the identity of the new closer. With few likely internal options ready for prime time, they inked Dotel to a one year deal worth $3.25M, with a team option for 2011. Dotel hasn't closed since 2007, when he went 11 of 14 in save opportunities with the Royals, with the line you see in the mini-browser.

Since then, he's served as one of Chicago's late relievers, doing a bit of setup work but appearing just as often in the sixth and seventh frame, particularly in 2009. Ozzie Guillen wisely kept him out of tight games the more he saw him, because Dotel's become what you might call a Three True Outcome pitcher: in his tenure with the White Sox, 45% of the batters who faced him ended up with a walk, strikeout or home run.

Considering that two of those three outcomes are anathema to a late-game reliever, particularly a closer, you should be as skeptical as Guillen of Dotel's ability to shut down the opposition. His strikeout numbers are quite nice, consistently above 10 K/9 the past three seasons, but his HR/9 is also consistently above 1 (peaking at 1.61 in 2008), and his BB/9 has risen from 3.52 to 5.20 since 2007.

The home run numbers are a bit of luck and a bit of pitching style. 2008 happened partly because of a really unlucky 16.7% HR rate, while 2009 saw him come a bit under average with a 9.0 HR/FB%. HR rate is particularly harmful to a flyball pitcher, which Dotel has always been, as you can see from those G/F rates in his mini-browser. That's why his ERA is always a threat to rise, and what makes him a dicey closer, both for Pittsburgh and your fantasy squad.

The best scenario for a guy like this is (1) a friendly park, (2) a bullpen that will allow him to enter the game with a clean slate, and (3 a manager who doesn't want to bring him in without a clean slate. Dotel has all of those in Pittsburgh, or at least two: PNC is a fairly good park for pitchers, John Russell only brought Matt Capps in for one-inning save situations in 2008 and 2009, and the Pirates further bolstered their 'pen with the signing of Brendan Donnelly.

So if there's anyplace that Dotel can succeed (other than a ballpark the size of Manhattan), it's in Pittsburgh. The Pirates didn't pay a huge price for him, and you shouldn't either. He'll give you Ks and saves, but your ERA and WHIP might get a little bruised in the process.

I'll get back to more reader requests next week, but please leave more in the comments field below. And don't forget to check out the new index, where you can look up all the players I've covered in the offseason—and hold my feet to the fire when the regular season starts.

And if you like the mini-browsers and the writing, don't forget to pick up a copy of the Graphical Player 2010, with more stats and writeups from the best writers on the web!

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Street 2010-01-29T05:59:15+00:00