The Hardball Times -- Michael Lerra http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-20T08:09:15+00:00 Roster Doctor: 4/22/09 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/roster-doctor-4-22-09/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/roster-doctor-4-22-09/#When:07:23:15 Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 13
Categories: Traditional 5x5
Scoring Type: Roto
Roster:

C - Pablo Sandoval
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
2B - Dan Uggla
3B - Chipper Jones
SS - Jimmy Rollins
OF - Jason Bay
OF - Matt Kemp
OF - Raul Ibanez
UTIL - Elijah Dukes
BN - Chris Young (Ari)
BN - Randy Winn

SP - Tim Lincecum
SP - Edinson Volquez
SP - Justin Verlander
RP - Francisco Rodriguez
RP - Kevin Gregg
RP - Manny Corpas
RP - Carlos Villanueva
BN - Daisuke Matsuzaka
BN - Chris Carpenter
BN - John Smoltz
DL - Trevor Hoffman

This roster comes with an owner worried about the injuries to his pitching, and rightly so. Let's focus on the hitting for a moment, though. This is a very strong lineup at each position, with a number of hitters that I'd imagine came at a bargain price; Uggla, Jones, Ibanez, and Bay have all been falling in drafts to some pretty enticing positions. Additionally, Sandoval is not only a good hitter, but an everyday hitter. I think owners of him in leagues where he has catcher eligibility will be quite happy with his production this year. The weakest spot is actually the Util position, which is a great sign. This owner will be able to throw a waiver claim at any player that's dropped before he should be. In my own league, Derrek Lee has already been dropped, and I'd absolutely pick him up for the Util here if possible. He's off to a slow start, but he's in the heart of a strong lineup and that's enough to get a surprising amount of production. This isn't to say that Lee will be available in every league, but more that panic moves do happen, and having a replacement-level Util hitter that you don't mind dropping is the best way to capitalize on this.

My one complaint about the hitting is the two OF in bench spots. In Rotisserie, you need to get as close as possible to getting 162 games out of each position. To this end, I'd suggest dropping your two least favorite out of Young, Winn, and Dukes, and then keeping one at Util and picking up a true utility player like Mark DeRosa. In fact, with your lineup, you may even want two of them. If you're vigilant about knowing when Chipper will start, and when he will take a day off with whatever is bothering him lately, you can plug someone in that hole and at least assure you have a better than nil chance of getting some runs or RBIs.

As for pitching, there's definitely a lot of trouble here. Carpenter looked amazing so far but is out for a couple months. Daisuke looked like his 2008 self (high strikeouts and walks), minus the luck that got him such an outrageous ERA and W-L record, but is now on the shelf with a tired arm. Smoltz isn't due back until late May or early June, and Volquez is proving that last year was largely a fluke.

Given that this is a rotisserie, you'll want to take a look at your IP limit for the season and figure out how you might get as close to it as possible. I'd advise dropping Smoltz in favor of someone who is pitching now. Smoltz is a gamble; he's an old guy with great stuff and great NL numbers, but he's coming off major surgery and moving into the AL East. And given the depth of the Red Sox pitching staff, he may initially come back as a relief pitcher. I'd also drop two bench hitters and pick up one multi-position player in their place and one starting pitcher. If this gives you too many innings and you think you'll hit the cap, drop your worst starter in favor of a setup man with great ERA and WHIP numbers like Takashi Saito. Carpenter is a very tough call. He injured a large muscle group, which is great news as compared to injuring something like a small tendon. His strikeouts and walks so far make it look like he's not lost a step since his glory years, so when he does come back, he'll likely be pitching at an All-Star level. If you think you can hit the IP maximum with him or Hoffman on your bench until one of them comes back, then I'd say keep him. If your league has a high IP limit, however (say, 1500 or more), then I'd advise dropping him in favor of production.

In roto, it's hard to survive with weak hitting. It looks like you followed this rule with the lineup you have, so the most important thing is for you to use your managerial skills to maximize your pitching points. You're going to want to closely monitor your path to the innings pitched limit, and if you hit it you'll likely be first in strikeouts, near the top in wins, and you'll have a reasonable shot at being above-average in ERA and WHIP. Combined with what I'd guess is one of the top three or four batting lineups in your 13-team league, and I'd say you're at least a contender for your league's title. Perhaps even a favorite.

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Player pool: Mixed
No. of teams: 10
Categories: Traditional 5x5
Scoring Type: Roto
Roster:
C - Ryan Doumit
1B - Carlos Pena
2B - Howie Kendrick
3B - Melvin Mora
SS - JJ Hardy
2B/SS - Felipe Lopez
1B/3B - Conor Jackson
OF - Ryan Braun
OF - Matt Holliday
OF - Alex Rios
OF - Torii Hunter
OF - Delmon Young
UTIL - Carlos Gomez
Bench - Paul Konerko
Bench - Edwin Encarnacion

P - Roy Halladay
P - Roy Oswalt
P - Francisco Liriano
P - Matt Garza
P - Randy Johnson
P - Huston Street
P - Mike Gonzalez
P - George Sherrill
P - Chad Cordero
Bench - Aaron Harang

Here's a very standard ESPN 10-team roto league, whose manager has been "the victim of the autopicker" due to having to miss the draft. Before we get to ideas for turning this team around, let's start off with strengths. Ryan Braun was probably your first pick, and as long as you were picking 5th or later, I think the autodraft algorithm served you well. I'm not sure who your second pick was, so I'm guessing Halladay and/or Holliday were taken too highly (actually, both likely were). But Holliday, in my eyes, was going too low in most drafts. He was an interesting case this year; very unsophisticated managers would draft him too highly due to not accounting for the Coors effect. Somewhat sophisticated managers would put him too low on their board, assuming his road stats were indicative of his new production level. And those managers who took the next step—noting the impact of the humidor on Coors HR numbers, and the fact that most ballplayers hit better at home, bumped him up on their sheets more towards his previous status as a top-10 or early teen pick. I think Holliday is somewhere between the 20th- and 25th-best player going into this year. Edwin Encarnacion, Torii Hunter, and Delmon Young are constantly underrated this year, and JJ Hardy may be as well.

Your bullpen is excellent. Street just won the closer's role, and should do fine. Sherrill has it for now, which is a sign of manager confidence given the spring he and Chris Ray have had. Mike Gonzalez has little to no competition for the role right now, and his peripherals indicate he should be a fine closer for Atlanta. On the SP side, Liriano is quite serviceable, even without his slider. Oswalt is remarkably consistent, and Harang is due for a bounceback year. Garza is overrated, in my eyes, but I could see Randy Johnson providing nice K totals, along with an ERA around 4.00 and a solid WHIP.

As for what to work on—I would say the starting and relief pitching is in a position of strength right now. I would dump two hitters on your bench in favor of a couple of starting pitchers. You should be able to get close to ESPN's max IP, and most teams will have a hard time matching the stats your pitchers will put up. I think four closers is perfect; in a 10-team league, most teams will have three or two, so you're likely looking at top three in saves.

As for hitting, you have five solid OF. The down side of this, however, is that if a free agent OF starts to perform above expectations, or gets moved into a more prime lineup spot, you've got nowhere to put him. I'd look to trade an OF for a better 1B or 1B/3B player. Could you deal Braun and one of your top SP for someone like Wright or Pujols? Or Braun for Miguel Cabrera straight-up?

I think you can absolutely do better than Howie Kendrick and Carlos Gomez. Try Kelly Johnson, if he's still around, for 2B. And for your Util, I'd look for a Francoeur, or if you need speed, perhaps the Yankee's new CF Brett Gardner. Gardner is batting ninth in the Yankees lineup, but with his speed he'll often be in scoring position for the top of the lineup when Jeter and Damon are up.

All in all, I think you ended up with an above-average autodraft. You have solid pitching, which seems to be typical of autodraft teams, but you also have a solid closing corps, lucking out with Sherrill, Gonzalez, and Street. Put Chris Ray, Rafael Perez, and Manny Corpas in their place and all of a sudden you're punting saves each week. The hitters could use some work, but in a 10-person league there's a lot of value to be had in the free agent pool. Do your best to keep your Util spot open; someone always drops a player in April that they shouldn't, due to a poor month and small sample size. Make sure you're there to pick that person up and put them in your everyday lineup. And load up on some serviceable pitchers instead of those bench spots with hitters in them; Jered Weaver and Brad Penny are likely available in your league, and are underrated right now. That'll give you the best shot at topping the board with Wins and Ks, while your aces give you a great shot at ERA and WHIP.

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No. of teams: 12
Categories: Head 2 Head
Roster:
C: Mike Napoli
1B: Carlos Delgado
2B: Kaz Matsui
3B: Adrian Beltre
SS: Ryan Theriot
OF: Raul Ibanez
OF: Chris Young
OF: Johnny Damon
OF: Nelson Cruz
BN: Cameron Maybin (OF)
BN: Coco Crisp
BN: Melvin Mora

SP: Johan Santana
SP: Javier Vazquez
RP: Francisco Rodriguez
RP: Mariano Rivera
P: Cole Hamels
P: Jake Peavy
P: Dan Haren
BN: Jered Weaver (SP)
BN: Joe Blanton (SP)

This request comes from Angel, who looks to be in a standard Yahoo league, and I'm guessing the fourth outfield spot is actually the lone default Util spot. I chose this Roster Doctor request because I'm also in a Yahoo head-to-head standard league, and it looks like Angel and I followed pretty similar strategies.

Right off the bat, this is obviously a pitching-centric team. It looks like a draft where a lot of prime picks were spent on pitchers (maybe as many as the top six picks?), which can sometimes be disastrous. However, the pitchers chosen are not the Rich Harden type; rather, all of these guys project to be fairly durable. In addition, I'd say at least half of the hitters are players that I had identified pre-draft as good values versus their average Yahoo draft positions (Damon, Cruz, Ibanez, Beltre, Delgado). I don't know why Damon doesn't go higher, but he's been consistently undervalued over the last few years; intelligence isn't a 5x5 category, so I expect him to produce pretty well in all five stats. Nelson Cruz is the official 2009 "sleeper-that-everyone-knew-about," and he's won a full-time OF job and likely a pretty prime spot in the batting order this spring. Ibanez is going from Seattle for 81 games a year to Philly for 81 games, and he's going to face NL pitching every day! I'm excited about him this year. Beltre's another guy who seems to be underrated each year; perhaps residual bitterness that he's never going to return to his contract year power? Delgado is old but managed a solid season last year. I don't mean to say I expect big things from him this year, but when he's going 160th in a draft, he's underrated.

As far as changes go, I think the first thing you need to do is replace Napoli if his shoulder prevents him from playing full time. Kurt Suzuki is actually a reasonable option here, or A.J. Pierzynski if he's still available in your league. I don't like Kaz Matsui at all at second base; I'd take Rickie Weeks if you can. Or if Ian Stewart is undrafted, maybe grab him and see if he can win a full-time spot at 2B. If he does, he'll be a top-10 second baseman this year for sure.

I'll make one point about your pitching that I think apply to a lot of teams. In Yahoo leagues, often times weeks are won in Wins and Ks based on how many starters a team has; not how good they are. So while you have some great pitchers, including Vazquez and Weaver—both of whom go way too late this year—you may lose those categories to a manager who simply out-starts you. To that end, I'd suggest trading at least one pitcher for a good bat. Drop your bench hitters, and in their place pick up one guy with a bunch of positional options (I call these guys "Mark DeRosas") and hope you can put him in your lineup for guys who have Monday or Thursday off. And with the other two slots, pick up some SPs with good K/BB ratios. That way, no one will be able to out-start you, and your talent advantage from your remaining star pitchers will certainly give you a great shot at sweeping W, K, ERA, and WHIP.

Your closer situation looks great, assuming you can pick up one more guy who earns saves; Mike Gonzalez may still be available in your league, or maybe Jason Motte. These guys have good peripherals and I have confidence that if they're given the closer role to begin the season, they'll have a great shot at holding it for the year.

As for that suggestion on trading starting pitching talent for hitting, your weakest lineup spots seem to be SS and 2B. If Chase Utley's hip looks good, perhaps Santana for Utley. How late did Pablo Sandoval fall in your draft? Yahoo has him at an average auction position of 185 or so, but as a full-time player with catcher eligibility, he's probably a top-100 player. Haren is probably a little too much to give up for Sandoval, but perhaps a 2-for-2? Getting 1B numbers out of the catcher position will go a long way toward putting your low-cost, high-value hitters in a position to compete each week with the teams who spent their first five or six picks on hitters.

Overall, I think this looks like a solid draft. I think you had a strategy and stuck with it; your success this season is going to depend a little bit on improving some of your hitter spots via free agent pickups (you have a few replacement-level type hitters), and a fair bit on turning some SP talent into hitting talent. Don't panic; by May 1, there will definitely be a couple owners in your league who are desperate for better starting pitching. From the looks of things, you may be the only place they can turn to for it!

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What draft slot should I assume I start in? I'll use a random number generator, assuming a 12-person league.

(dramatic pause)

Looks like its a four. All right, one last assumption: to keep things simple, we'll use a small roster: one of each of C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, seven pitchers, plus a bench of five.

ROUND 1, PICK 4: David Wright. This is perhaps the best pick to get in a snake draft. While I like Pujols a lot this year, Wright is arguably the best-projected player for 2009. Third base is looking a little weaker than in years past due to guys like Scott Rolen, Troy Glaus, and Garrett Atkins slowing down, and Chipper Jones due for a major regression (and/or season-ending surgery), and newcomers like Evan Longoria having enough playing time last year to be seeded appropriately for his age and skill level.

ROUND 2, PICK 21: Chase Utley. I swear I didn't plan this. I used a random number generator available at Random.org, and it appears I've given myself the best possible situation. There are some injury concerns here, and Utley may miss a chunk of time at the beginning of the season. But without these concerns, he's easily a first-rounder when you consider the lack of talent at 2B. Ian Kinsler has not made a believer out of me yet, and I'm not certain Dustin Pedroia has as much home run power as he displayed last year. I'll take the risk on Utley because hip injuries, in my never-took-an-anatomy-class expert opinion, are nowhere near as debilitating or recurring as a wrist or back injury, or that weird thing that Rocco Baldelli has.

ROUND 3, PICK 28: Matt Holliday. While ESPN has Holliday ranked as the 32nd most expensive player, I think this is a little low. Certainly, his power and average will tail off as he no longer hits in Coors against NL pitching. But, the humidor has been used for quite some time now, and there is believed to be a Coors "hangover" effect such that Coors hitters actually perform worse on the road than you'd otherwise expect. So simply taking Holliday's road stats and projecting that as his line for 2009 is pretty unwise. If Holliday is around in the late 20s, or certainly the early 30s, he's worth picking up. My hunch, however, is that he'll go in the late teens. as fantasy managers are unwilling to believe the degree to which Coors still impacts players' line drive and home run rates, as well as a pitcher's ability to put movement on a ball.

ROUND 4, PICK 45: Vladimir Guerrero. It looks like I'm simply picking names that were good a few years ago, but that's not the case. ESPN has Kevin Youkilis, Felix Hernandez, Aramis Ramirez, and Vlad all clustered around the 45th slot. I already have a 3B, so Youkilis isn't worth it here, nor is Aramis; I am a huge proponent of keeping one's Util slot open for as long as possible. Felix seems incredibly overrated this high, but some folks just see through rose-colored glasses and miss the fact that his peripherals haven't changed at all in three years and he may have topped out talent-wise. Vlad is declining, but he can still get you a few steals, a .300 BA, and solid R and RBI numbers due to his prime position in the lineup.

ROUND 5, PICK 52: Russell Martin. I hate to take a catcher here, it goes against my rules for drafting to pick a catcher at this point, but I've begun to be swayed by the arguments of other fantasy writers on this site. Martin projects very well, and I don't want to take an OF here (ESPN's numbers have Alex Rios still available) and fill the position.

ROUND 6, PICK 69: Derek Jeter. The karmic gods are angry, as a Boston resident just took Jeter over the also-available David Ortiz (ESPN rank: 70). Let me be clear: I think Ortiz is very underrated at pick 70. However, I have a few reasons for picking Jeter here. For one thing, the only SS left I'd be happy with is Rafael Furcal. For another, wrist injuries always scare me (*ahem*), so I'm not too confident in Ortiz' ability to bounce back this year. And finally, I'll go back to what I said above: I am a huge proponent of leaving the Util spot open for as long as possible. I've watched players fall as much as 50 spots below their rank, all because a few drafters didn't have a Util spot open, and maybe those who did got wrapped up in a run on closers. I'm always upset that I'm not That Guy who ends up with someone 50 spots later than he should have gone; this year, I want to be That Guy.

ROUND 7, PICK 76: Scott Kazmir. At this point, ESPN has a run of SPs, along with Torii Hunter and Johnny Damon. I'll pick Kazmir because he's consistent and because I just realized he turned 25 a month ago. It feels like he's been around forever, but he's actually still on the upswing of his career arc.

ROUND 8, PICK 93: Javier Vazquez. There's a ton of underrated talent here, including Garrett Atkins and Raul Ibanez (from Seattle's ballpark to Philly's? Yes, please). Kerry Wood may be a reasonable pick, as might Hunter Pence. But I'll take Vazquez's steady peripherals translated to the NL.

ROUND 9, PICK 100: Joey Votto. I like the projected power numbers, and I'm getting a little nervous that I won't have a solid 1B if I keep waiting. I don't want to end up with Todd Helton, unless someone puts him in touch with Alex Rodriguez's cousin.

ROUND 10, PICK 117: Aaron Harang. I'm not happy with my choices here at all; I've filled all of my position slots except one OF slot and my Util. At this point, my best bet is to choose a solid pitcher who's absolutely no-questions-asked better than a replacement SP. I could pick Edinson Volquez, but I don't like his walk rate and I think people have seen his stuff enough by this time; he won't be surprising anyone. I'll go with Harang, who's due for a regression back to where he used to be, and in my eyes a safer bet than Volquez.

ROUND 11, PICK 124: Trevor Hoffman. I'm hurting for a closer at this point, and I believe Hoffman will have a long leash with Milwaukee; the fact that they let Eric Gagne pitch past April last year is proof of that. Hoffman's strikeout rate is hurting, but he still keeps the walks down and should rack up the saves.

ROUND 12, PICK 141: Justin Upton. He's 22 this year, still on the upswing of his career, and check out what this guy did when he was 22.

ROUND 13, PICK 148: Brad Ziegler. No, he's not as good as his scoreless innings streak, but he'll get the majority of the A's saves without letting the ball out of the park too much.

ROUND 14, PICK 165: Carlos Delgado. This is what I want out of my Util. I've got a ton of good BA guys, and despite his age, Delgado is a good pick here. We're at the point at which guaranteed saves are no longer available, so I'll finish off my hitters while I can.

ROUND 15, PICK 172: Clayton Kershaw. Rolling the dice here; he's young, and he may put it together. If not, I've got no qualms about dropping a 15th round pick in favor of a free agent replacement player who's getting more playing time than folks thought he would get at draft time.

ROUND 16, PICK 189: John Danks. I'd also accept arguments for Chien-Ming Wang.

ROUND 17, PICK 196: David Price. He may not fall this far due to the hype from last year. I'm happy to take a utility guy like Mark DeRosa here instead, or a steals guy like Ryan Theriot.

ROUND 18, PICK 213: Grant Balfour. Will he be the closer for the Rays this year? He's got a ton of competition, but I'll take a chance on him in the 200s. His strikeout rate, ERA and WHIP may also be good enough as a setup man to be worth the pick here.

With remaining picks, I'd look to fill out my bench with an April backup for Chase Utley and a few high-upside guys like Ben Sheets or John Smoltz.

Here's what the team of starters looks like:

C: Russell Martin
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Chase Utley
SS: Derek Jeter
3B: David Wright
OF: Matt Holliday
OF: Vladimir Guerrero
OF: Justin Upton
Util: Carlos Delgado
P: Scott Kazmir
P: Javier Vazquez
P: Aaron Harang
P: Trevor Hoffman
P: Brad Ziegler
P: Clayton Kershaw
P: John Danks

Very, very solid. I think in a 12-person draft, the fourth slot might be the best place to draft from. There's a bit of a drop-off after the fifth slot, and I'd be happy to have the choice between David Wright and Jose Reyes. Some picks are of course unpredictable; I'd be far less happy with this draft if another manager broke the script and nabbed Votto or Jeter in front of me and forced me to wait longer to fill 1B and SS. Keeping my Util options open allowed a nice late pickup of Delgado.

I'm also a proponent of the power of free-agent pitching. Pitcher ERAs vary wildly at the beginning of the season, and there are always a few managers who succumb to small sample size and drop guys they shouldn't. A strong-hitting team can fortify its weakness in pitching during the season by picking up the players with good peripherals who were dropped too soon. Even getting to the point at which you have average pitching, combined with the lineup of hitters above, would make for a great chance at a bye week during the playoffs.



Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Lerra 2009-03-05T09:24:15+00:00 Keeper League Roundup http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/keeper-league-roundup/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/keeper-league-roundup/#When:13:27:15 designing the perfect keeper league, I introduced two rules for designing an ideal keeper league. After reading some comments, I've decided that there was one thing I missed. So without further ado, I present the updated Keeper League Rules. An ideal keeper league should:

  1. Allow managers to get an advantage if they select players who outperform the consensus expectations
  2. Ensure such an advantage is small enough that it isn't a deterrent to keeping other managers interested in competing in the future
  3. Leave enough interesting, quality players in the draft/auction such that it's still an exciting and important event for each season


I also wanted to summarize the five keeper options I presented in my first article, along with all of the great reader ideas and suggestions in the comments. Going with the theme of the first two rules above, I thought it would be best to present these formats as a spectrum. The first league formats below are those which I'd deem conservative keeper rules. Leagues with these rules will allow for the most competitive leagues year after year, and the risks and rewards are both low. One good auction or draft won't set you up for years of dominance, but it also ensures you won't suffer years of wasted entry fees due to a few poor choices. Towards the end of the list are the formats I feel are most liberal. The reward for making good choices is very high, so managers are more likely to take some risks. Picking up a few prospects that pan out can give you a tremendous advantage for years to come; but at the same time, your opponents can just as easily put you on the receiving end of a Royals-esque decade with some wise choices of their own.

Of course, my ordering of these formats is simply my own subjective opinion; none of us have tried them all (if you have, please put the mouse down, back away from the monitor, and go spend some time with your family and friends). I hope it serves as a rough guide for those commissioners looking to start up a league; move down the list with your prospective managers, and find the point at which you're satisfied with the amount of risk and reward that a particular option provides. I also want to throw out a proactive apology to those whose formats I simplified here. There's nearly limitless combinations of the rules below, so I wanted to try to break them down as simply as possible so that they could be used as building blocks for those who want a more complex league.

Without further ado, the league settings:

  • Keep X players as the first X round picks of next year

    • As I mentioned in the previous piece, I'm not a fan of this idea. And in terms of this piece, it's listed as the most conservative, least-rewarding league because a team can only really reap benefits from it if their top X picks are all keepers. Even if you have guys you'd like to keep as 2nd through 8th round picks, they become 1st through 7th picks, and are much less valuable.

  • Auction each player, with the previous year's owner getting the right to match the final offer (and keep the player) or let the winning bidder keep the player at that price.

    • Really not too much benefit here to picking good players. Since we'd expect bidding among the other owners to approach a player's actual value, in some senses you're hoping the bidders bid too highly and you can stick them with an overpaid player (which is, in my estimation, the opposite of the point of a keeper league).

  • Keep any number of players at last year's round or price if it would be your first year keeping them; all players who were previously kept once are put back into the draft.

    • So if you got a steal last year, you'll keep it once more and then that's that. There's some benefit here to making good picks (in fact, in year two of ownership, this actually provides more of a reward than any other system), but the benefit disappears after that one year. I do like how this satisfies Keeper Rule #3 and really ensures drafts/auctions have a ton of top-tier players to keep it interesting.

  • Long-term contract: after owning a player for a year, you can sign him to a long-term contract for $5 extra in each successive season (ex. $6, $11, $16 for a guaranteed 3-year deal). Salary is used even if player is dropped mid-contract.

    • I like that this format helps players benefit from good picks, while also introducing one extra cost: the possibility of getting stuck with a lemon for a lot of salary. For that reason, I can't call it a terribly rewarding system, because certainly some long-term contract mistakes will be made, nullifying other rewards. But I like that it also sort of mimics arbitration costs and free-agent processes.

  • Keep any player at $5 higher than the price paid in the previous year.

    • Same as above, without the risk. Less risk means more often reaping the rewards of a great decision, so this gets slotted one space further towards the high-reward end of the spectrum.

  • Keep any number of players, with each of {$1, $4, $7, $10, $13, ...} added on to one particular player.

    • I really like this idea. There's obviously a bigger benefit here to keeping a couple guys than the previous $5 flat rate. But at the same time, no one can keep a dynasty together from the year before, because their fifth kept player is going to cost $13 more than the previous season. I also like the fact that this system allows a manager to keep their sentimental favorite player or favorite draft pick for many, many years, if they continue to make that one player their $1 increase.

  • Keep any number of players using draft pick equal to the average of the round in which you drafted him last year and the average round he is taken in according to this year's worldwide average draft position. (ex. if you picked Lincecum in the 10th last year and he is being picked in the 4th round this year, he can be kept as your 7th round pick this season).

    • Some regression here, to ensure outrageous deals don't last forever.

  • Track players with a neutral price guide; cost to keep a player is the average of all price guide prices (one per year) during ownership.

    • Likewise with the above system, there's a regression factor here. But whereas in the above example, only the most recent round or price is averaged against the current concensus, this price guide system averages all years under control. So drafting a player in the 15th round, or for $1, lowers the average for every year going forward. The potential for advantage is equal to the above system in the first year of keeping a player, but greater for every year thereafter.

  • Keep any number of players, two rounds higher than previous year.

    • Not much advantage for top players, but can bring a big advantage for a long time if the right minor leaguer is drafted in the late rounds or picked up as a free agent.

  • Auction each player, with the previous year's owner getting the right to keep the player for 15% less than the final offer, or let the winning bidder keep the player at the highest bid.

    • I'm tempted to say this is not a high-reward system, because at best a manager will only be getting a 15% discount off of the going rate of a player. For late round pickups that end up becoming stars, this just isn't a huge advantage to carry year-to-year. However, this system rewards players very strongly if they simply draft players who improve. In other words, a great team in this league will not be one with a ton of insightful late-round pickups; it will be one in which the owner wants to keep virtually all of his players (and will thus do so at a 15% discount). I can see a team in this setting having a pretty unprecedented run of dominance, with little or no checks and balances. The best way to stop it might be to essentially collude with other owners to raise his prices, knowing that you might get stuck with overpaying for a couple players, but in concert you'll be crippling his team when others do the same.

  • Top finishers can keep 4 players, middle finishers can keep 5 players, lower finishers can keep 6 players, at the same price or round as last year.

    • Where you put this format on the spectrum depends on how many keepers you think a team would have. Obviously the second keeper is not as valuable as the first, so likewise the fifth player kept is not as valuable as the fourth, third, second, or first. Diminishing returns make me think that teams who do well one season aren't likely to be hurt too badly by not being able to keep their fifth- and sixth-best bargains. Therefore, I'd expect good teams in this league to have quite a bit of momentum on their side from season to season.

  • Keep any number of players, one round higher than previous year.

    • Tons of opportunity for exploiting bargains here, and not just in the later rounds. Lincecum, perhaps a 10th round pick last year, may have established a new true talent level of a fourth-rounder. That gives whoever picked him last season a full five seasons of value for that one pick.

  • Keep as many players as you like, up to $100 or $150 (approximately half of the total team budget) in salary, same price as last year.

    • Most outrageous bargains are going to happen at the lower end of the price scale, so setting a limit of $100 or $150 could easily translate to managers being able to keep 18 players if they like. There may as well be no cap; this is the most liberal system I can think of. Better hope you make some good decisions early on in this league's life, because I'd imagine it would be very difficult to unseat the good teams in this type of league.


And that's it. Best of luck in selecting one (or more) of these if you're starting a league fresh. I'd say my favorite three are the {$1, $4, $7, ...} rule, the average draft rule, and the price guide rule, probably in that order. I think they have a great balance of allowing risk to turn into reward, plus they let players keep sentimental favorites for an extended time without too much of a penalty. We're all looking to win, but being able to keep hometown players or favorites just gives everyone a little more joy when they watch their team on TV or thumb through box scores each day.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Lerra 2009-02-19T13:27:15+00:00 Designing the perfect keeper league http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/designing-the-perfect-keeper-league/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/designing-the-perfect-keeper-league/#When:07:48:15
In my eyes, the perfect keeper league must do the following:
  1. Allow managers to get an advantage if they select players who outperform the consensus expectations
  2. Ensure such an advantage is small enough that it isn't a deterrent to keeping other managers interested in competing in the future

That's it. Two constraints—should be easy, right? If only it were.

I've heard a number of ideas so far. One is that each manager can keep up to X players, and those players constitute his or her first X picks in next year's draft. If all but one manager keep at least two players, that final manager will have the only first round pick and the only second round pick, from which he can take any available player. The problem here is that if your 2008 draft contains a poor first round pick, you'll have a hard time keeping anyone else because your first player kept counts as your first round pick in 2009.

If you grabbed Prince Fielder in the first round of 2008 and Lance Berkman in the second round, and wanted to keep only Berkman in 2009, he'd occupy your first round slot. He's not a bargain there at all—actually a poor choice—but if you could keep him as a second rounder, you probably would. For this reason, I think Keeper Rule No. 1 is violated by this rule set, and therefore I don't see it as optimal.

Another classic keeper rule is that each manager can keep players for the next season's draft by using their draft pick one round sooner than they were picked in the current year. So if you picked Manny Ramirez in the fourth round in 2008, you could keep him as your third round pick in 2009. Might not be a bad idea, if you think he will be properly motivated this year. The problem, however, is that for truly low-round prospects that are gambled on, the payoff can potentially violate Keeper Rule No. 2.

In 2006, I drafted Jonathan Papelbon in the 14th round—a reasonable gamble, as he had very good call-up stats but it was uncertain whether he'd be the closer or a fourth or fifth starter. Even if it was a keeper league that forced me to draft him two spots sooner each successive year, he'd have been a 12th rounder in 2007, and 10th rounder in 2008, and probably would continue to be a bargain through at least the 2010 season. That, I believe, is a little too much value gained on an errant 14th round pick one season, and the advantage gained from that one fortunate draft pick would probably seem excessive to most.

What about auction drafts? Typical auctions allow for a budget of $260 to be spent on 26 players, with a minimum of $1 to purchase a player. One keeper rule I've heard is that the price to keep a player the following year is simply what you paid this year plus some fixed amount (such as $5). Much like the rule above, this ensures you won't get to keep a bargain forever. However, given the range of typical player values ($1 to about $50), it can take many years for one lucky pick to stop giving outlandish benefits to its manager. Papelbon may have cost $4 in 2006, thus making him a $9 steal in 2007, a $14 robbery in 2008, and so forth. This rule, like the one above, seems to me to violate Keeper Rule No. 2.

One could also auction each player each year, with the previous season's owner getting the right of final purchase. If you owned Alex Rodriguez in 2008, he would be up for auction amongst the other players in your league for 2009. Whenever that auction found a winning bid, you as the current owner would have the right to match that price to keep him. If you decide to do so, there is no further bidding; your price has been set by the "market" of other managers. If you decline, the highest bidder gets him.

In this rule set, I find it hard to imagine too many players would be kept, because an efficient market (the other players in the league) would typically be willing to pay a player's expected value each successive year. Or perhaps more, since in an auction the winner typically overpays for the good for sale; the current owner would have no reason to ever keep someone. This would violate Keeper Rule No. 1— benefit would be afforded to those making good decisions in the past.

However, one could add a discount to solve this. Imagine the current owner got to keep a player at 15 percent less than the other managers' final bid price. In such a case, it would almost universally be in the interest of the current owner to keep his player. Other ramifications would follow, however: managers could theoretically overbid for a player by 10 percent, knowing that once 15 percent is knocked off of the final value, the current owner is still getting a slightly good deal and would benefit from picking up the player at ever so slightly below his actual value. For this reason, I believe this rule set still violates Keeper Rule No. 1, in that it actually does not afford enough advantage to managers making good decisions.

Finally, we come to the actual league rule I've found to best mix the interests of Keeper Rule No. 1 and Keeper Rule No. 2. It's predicated upon an auction format with standardized categories for which many projections and price guides exist. The league decides on a publicly-available price guide, from which player values are derived. Each season, managers can keep as many players as they wish, with their next season's price being equal to the average of each season's price guide value during which he or she owned the player.

For players whose value doesn't change much over time—Albert Pujols for example—no advantage is derived by keeping him. He typically costs around $40, he's typically worth around $40, and his price guide price is typically around $40. For prospects, I believe the system still works. If you picked up Papelbon for $4 (his price guide value) in 2006, his price guide value before the 2007 season would reflect his new value as an elite closer with one season of great numbers - say, $20. Your price to keep him for 2007 would be ($4 + $20) / 2 = $12. When he put up tremendous numbers in 2007 once more, he would likely have been valued around $24 going into the 2008 season. Your price to keep him then would be ($4 + $20 + $24) / 3 = $16.

There's still a very large benefit to finding great players who are underrated for a season—as you can see, in 2008 Papelbon was likely a $20+ player who could be kept for $16—but he is one of the stronger examples of coming out of nowhere one season to become an elite player. And, as opposed to the system in which price goes up by a fixed amount each season, this system more quickly aligns a player's cost to his true value.

The point of this article was to present some ideas about how to construct the "perfect" keeper league. I'd love to hear some feedback about what you've seen or heard of that might work better than any of these—specifically if they're better than the final rule set, because that's what I'm leaning towards at the moment.


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7) Don't take a starter until the 8th or 9th round unless you have a very good reason. Wins fluctuate wildly from year to year, but for some reason preseason rankings always seem to assume 18-, 19-, 20-, and 21-game winners are going to repeat that the following year. Odds are overwhelming that they won't. In addition, there's always guys who get called up midseason (Cole Hamels), turned to starters midseason (Francisco Liriano), or who demonstrate a true talent improvement during the season (Cliff Lee) that you can capitalize on. In most 12-person leagues, most players simply pick up starters based on Wins and ERA to that point in the year. By looking at stats like FIP and even simple ones like K/9 and BB/9, you can make better decisions than your opponents on who to pick up, who to trade, and who to trade for. Hitters are far more consistent from year to year, and I think the relatively unsophisticated fantasy owners still have a good sense about the true talent of hitters.

8) Avoid hitters who have had wrist injuries. If you ask 10 people what the most important part of the body is when swinging a baseball bat, you'll get 10 different answers. But one of them will be the wrist, and wrist injuries just seem to take the longest for players to recover from.

9) After the 9th or 10th round, give precedence to any certain-closers that remain. When someone needs saves, they'll often overpay for them. Closers make the best trade bait mid-season.

10) Power hitters make the second-best trade bait. For some reason, Juan Pierre is draftable in the 6th round, but almost entirely untradeable mid-season. Likewise with Wily Taveras—always drafted in a reasonable position in the draft, but impossible to trade. Players are far more likely to give up on steals and focus on the power stats than they are to make a mid-season trade to solidify steals. In the draft, err on the side of too much power over too much speed.

11) Know the value of the Mark DeRosas. Players most often get six games per week, and days off either Mondays and Thursdays. So a bench hitter is really only looking at one game per week that he could fill in over regulars. Derosa played 149 games last year, so 149/162 or 92% of the time, and was qualified at 1B, 2B, 3B, and OF. On any given Monday or Thursday that he was playing, odds were you had a 1B, 2B, 3B, or OF whose team had the day off. The fantasy season is typically 22 games long, so in assessing his value as a bench guy, we want to look at 92% of his production per 22 games. This comes out to a .285 BA, 13 Runs, 3 HR, 11 RBI, and 1 SB. Obviously not a ton of production, but enough to swing a few games during a head-to-head season, or a few spots in a Roto league. Of course, the tradeoff is the benefit of those numbers, versus an extra SP or middle reliever that provides some value as well. I think one bench utility player like DeRosa is a must, even in leagues where opponents are maximizing their bench slots for starters—if you're dedicated, you can even boost that production a bit more by subbing him in for regulars when the park or opposing pitcher makes it an even more favorable game for him.

I once again welcome comments that anyone wishes to share. I'm not saying I'm correct about all of these assertions—they are almost entirely anecdotal—but they're my best guess at ways to go towards an optimum draft experience.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Lerra 2009-01-23T16:06:15+00:00 Draft Manifesto http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/draft-manifesto/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/draft-manifesto/#When:06:51:15 playoff gambling manifesto and not worry about it being used against him, perhaps I can do the same with my fantasy baseball draft manifesto. Here goes.

1) Don't draft a Utility guy like Travis Hafner or David Ortiz. Not only do these guys tend to be older and have ever-worsening contact skills and playing time, but they also keep you from taking advantage of some draft bargains. How many times have you been in a draft where a player is hanging around for 20 or 30 picks longer than you anticipated? I'm not talking the consensus 10th pick still around in the 4th round, but maybe a guy around 90 falling to 120 or 125. And you pass him by because you already have his position slot and your Utility slot is full? The Utility slot should be reserved for this type of occasion. In addition, if you're not attached to your Utility player, you can keep churning through free agents and waiver wire pickups until someone drops a player they really shouldn't have. Then, no matter the position he plays, you have a spot on your starting lineup for him.

2) Don't draft a catcher in the top 100. These elite catchers just never seem to perform to their level. If Brian McCann is ranked 33rd preseason, he could have a solid season and still only be the 66th best player by the end of the year. Picking him 33rd is a terribly inefficient pick. It's a brutal position on a player's knees, and I'd bet catchers break down at almost the same rate as starting pitchers. I tend to go for catchers ranked somewhere between 100 and 200. Take a gamble on a catcher, don't go for an established star. Let someone pick McCann, Joe Mauer, Russell Martin, and Victor Martinez 30 spots higher than their eventual end of season rank.

3) Don't pick Carl Crawford. In the preseason, he always seems to be ranked in the top 10 or 12, and always seems to end up ranked 20th by the end of the year. I have no proof of this, it just seems like it.

4) Spread out your steals. Don't count on a guy like Eric Byrnes or Brian Roberts for 50-plus, because a slight injury or change in philosophy could cut that number in half. Instead, find a bunch of guys that get 10 or 12 steals. A lot of times, opposing drafters won't consider those steals as part of the value of a player, but having them will reduce the variance in your team's output, and they can certainly add up.

5) Don't worry so much about batting average and ERA in head-to-head leagues. As I showed in a previous column, being good in those categories doesn't give you much of an advantage each week. On the other hand, if your team is truly excellent in runs, you'll be rewarded with consistent head-to-head wins.

6) Use two basic principles to your advantage: regression to the mean, and aging. Almost every fantasy owner who mis-values a player will do so due to forgetting about those two concepts. Young players tend to get better, old players tend to get worse. Sounds simple when you say it, but how many people are going to draft Manny Ramirez as though his 2008 age 36 season is exactly what they should expect for 2009? And along a similar vein ... don't forget about regression to the mean. You have the tools on the stats section of this site to take a closer look at fantasy statistics. Be a critic, be skeptical, and stick to the null hypothesis: a career season from a player in his late 20s or anywhere in his 30s does not indicate a new true talent level, unless you have peripheral stats to back it up.


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However, not all categories are equal in your ability to control the outcome. How many times have you seen a team with Matt Holliday, Joe Mauer, and Albert Pujols (nice draft!) losing to Adam Dunn, Jim Thome, and Mike Napoli in batting average for a week?

After playing in three Yahoo Head-to-Head leagues, I wanted to answer the following question: Are there certain categories in which I can control my performance to a greater extent than others? In other words ... which categories tend to allow the truly best teams to win? And which categories have results that are largely a product of luck?

Across three 12-team head-to-head leagues, I summarized each team's statistics in each category, and their won-loss record in each category as well. I was tempted to simply rank each team as a measure of their performance. However, it immediately becomes apparent that sometimes the difference between first and second place is 45 runs, but the difference between fifth and six is a mere three runs. To account for this, I calculated the mean and standard deviation in each category, and then assigned a z-score to each team in each category based on their performance.

The analysis was simple: correlate the z-scores for each team in each category with their respective W-L record in the respective category. The results are below:

CategoryCorrelation
SB0.93
SV0.93
K0.91
HR0.87
W0.86
R0.83
WHIP0.76
RBI0.75
AVG0.68
ERA0.66


Above is the "r" correlation for each statistic, relating the degree to which a team's performance and it's won-loss record are related. From taking statistics courses in college, I remember that squaring the "r" will tell you the percentage of variance in one statistic that is due to the other. In other words, squaring the .91 for strikeouts gives us (.91 x .91) = .8281. So about 83 percent of the variance of a player's won-loss record in strikeouts is due to their team's performance. What is the other 17 percent due to? A combination of luck, and perhaps some managerial skill. But mostly luck.

Stolen bases, saves, and strikeouts top the list. I'd expect strikeouts to be high—readers of this site know that a pitcher's strikeout rate is pretty stable over time. The small amount of variance here could be due, in part, to the randomness of two-start weeks.

Home runs being fourth on the list surprises me. In general, I'd expect the categories with low totals to be more subject to variance. But, at least through three leagues, teams seemed to accumulate home runs at a steady enough rate to have their won-loss record in that category reflect their team talent.

Let's skip to the bottom of the chart: ERA and batting average. These are the two categories that are most influenced by luck. And this is the heart of what I was trying to learn by examining these numbers. When you are examining preseason projections and trying to craft your team during a draft, these numbers would suggest that you place less emphasis on a player's projected average or ERA. While there is a positive correlation between having a good ERA as a team and having a good W-L record in that category, we can see that (.66 x .66) = .4356. So 44 percent of the variance in a team's ERA record is due to actual overall ERA, and a whopping 56 percent is due largely to luck.

There are a few shortcomings in this analysis. Saves and stolen Bases are the two "one-of-these-things-is-not-like-the-other" stats. Every season, in every league, there is likely to be a couple players who give up on one or both of these statistics in order to bolster their other stats. Consequently, there are a lot of players with incredibly low save and stolen base totals, who rightfully lose each and every week. This will artificially inflate those correlations, so they're not as useful for drawing inferences that relate to your typical teams who have a typical number of closers or base stealers.

In addition, some managerial skill can reduce correlations. If, going into the weekend, I am leading in strikeouts, wins, ERA, and WHIP, and I know my opponent has no starting pitchers going, I may opt to bench my starters to ensure I maintain my lead in ERA and WHIP. Doing so will make my win and strikeout totals lower than they could have been, but I'll still get wins in both statistics for the week. So that will artificially reduce the correlation between won-loss and each of those stats.

The bottom line is, if you are trying to build a fantasy team that competes across all 10 categories, it pays to trade some talent in average and ERA for talent in home runs, strikeouts, and other stats at the top of the chart. You're more likely to get guaranteed returns in the standings with those stats ... and when 56 percent of the variance in your chance of winning ERA for the week is due to luck, you're never really out of contention in that category.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Lerra 2008-12-11T06:59:15+00:00 Finding the Next Breakout Pitcher part 2 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/finding-the-next-breakout-pitcher-part-2/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/finding-the-next-breakout-pitcher-part-2/#When:05:07:15 previous piece, I found 21 pitchers who showed a marked, sustained improvement between 2003 and 2008. These pitchers had a big jump in their FIP, and they sustained this new level of performance after their breakout year.

In order to find players who put up similar numbers in 2008 to the averages of our breakout pitchers just before they made the leap, I'm going to look at standard deviations. In 2008, there were 142 pitchers who threw for 100 or more innings. Using the Excel function =STDEV, I can find the standard deviation of the key statistics across the sample. What I will then do is add up each player's total standard deviations from the mean of our breakout pitchers in the stats K/9, BB/9, K/BB, and GB%, and see who totals the smallest deviation from the means.

As I had mentioned, there were essentially two types of pitchers who were on that list: ground ball specialists and power pitchers with low walk rates. Looking at the ground ball specialists, we have the following stats:

YearName K/9BB/9K/BBGB%
2004Brandon Webb7.105.151.380.64
2005Chien-Ming Wang3.632.501.450.64
2004Chris Carpenter7.521.884.000.52
2006Tim Hudson5.813.261.780.58
-AVERAGE6.023.202.150.60


The pitcher most similar in 2008 to our ground ball breakout stars: Paul Maholm. Ouch. This is one of those times where I wish I could just make something up, and pretend someone else bubbled to the top. Surely, if I were picking my own favorite breakout candidate for 2009, I'd probably steer clear of a guy on the Pirates. But let's give him a chance and take a look at his numbers. In 2008, he averaged 6.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 54 percent GB%. Really his whole career, he's been incredibly stable in terms of strikeouts and ground ball rate. He did have a nice little epiphany in 2007 where he learned to bring down his walk rate a bit. And he's pretty young, only 26 years old. Still, the only way I could rationally see him becoming a star groundballer next year is if he develops a new pitch, or throws a lot more breaking balls.

Below are the stats for the power pitchers who broke out to become stars over the past five seasons:


YearName K/9BB/9K/BBGB%
2004Aaron Harang6.992.962.360.42
2003Ben Sheets6.401.753.650.44
2002Brad Penny6.473.481.860.46
2002Carl Pavano6.043.141.930.47
2005CC Sabathia7.372.842.600.50
2006Dan Haren7.101.823.910.45
2003Doug Davis5.044.211.200.40
2004Erik Bedard8.034.721.700.38
2003Jake Peavy7.213.791.900.39
2006James Shields7.512.742.740.43
2004Jeremy Bonderman8.183.602.270.48
2003Johan Santana8.892.204.040.30
2004John Lackey6.522.742.380.44
2006Josh Beckett6.953.252.140.45
2003Roger Clemens8.082.473.280.44
2003Roy Oswalt7.632.053.720.46
2005Scott Kazmir8.424.841.740.42
-AVERAGE7.223.092.550.43


Four pitchers quickly bubble to the top as being quite similar to those lines: Shaun Marcum, Bronson Arroyo, Dustin McGowan, and John Danks. Arroyo is probably too old to have a breakout season—we've seen so much of him in this decade that it's hard to imagine him breaking away from any of his past numbers. McGowan is an interesting case, because he had great 2007 numbers, including a 53 percent ground ball rate. Following it up with 41 percent in 2008, along with almost a full strikeout fewer per nine innings pitched, makes me less optimistic about him. Marcum and Danks are my two favorites here, because in their cases the numbers back up intuition and observation. Except in Marcum's case, he's due for season-ending surgery, forcing him to sit out 2009 while he recovers.

Still, Marcum has had a stable couple of years. His strikeout rate improved a bit last year, while his walk rate remained the same. What interests me about him is the low percentage of fastballs that he throws; in 2008 they only represented 39 percent of his pitches. He's also shown improvements each year in the rate at which batters swing at pitches outside the zone. Clearly his pitch selection is beginning to baffle hitters a bit more. If the surgery leads to a drop in velocity though, I'd guess he's finished. We've seen how Pedro Martinez, one of the most dominating pitchers in the history of baseball, has fared after a drop in velocity forced him to rely on junkballing. He had a few good years in the National League, but is toast at this point.

Danks is pretty clearly my favorite of the four. The youngest of the group, he's only 23 years old. In 2008—his second season in the majors—he improved his K/9 by about .3 and his BB/9 by almost a full 1.0. His GB% went from 35 to 43 percent, and batters against him swung at pitches outside the zone 28 percent of the time (up from 18 percent in his rookie season). The biggest warning sign I can find in his 2008 stats is a slight increase in the rate at which he gives up line drives. Still, all other signs point to him becoming a star pitcher in the near future, so look to pick him up maybe a round earlier than you normally would—he may be one of the big draft-day bargains of 2009.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Lerra 2008-11-24T05:07:15+00:00