The Hardball Times -- Mike Silver

So, you want to work in baseball? Part 2

Mike Silver — 2010-03-23T10:00:15+00:00

And then the work began.

The first day, I could barely contain my excitement. In the spirit of professionalism, I had to restrain my emotions, but it wasn’t easy. Years of schooling and months of preparations had boiled down to that moment.

Still, the first day was uneventful, centering on orientation and getting acclimated to the surroundings. Working at the ballpark is a nice change of pace from a normal office. You’re surrounded by your passion and, whenever you go outside for a breath of fresh air, you’re staring at a baseball diamond. It’s too bad there’s a turf blanket covering it until March.

For the first few weeks, my job revolved around corporate sales and ticketing. Despite being part of the Public Relations Department, this is the primary focus of my offseason. Though I write articles and releases for the website, there just isn’t a whole lot of buzz surrounding the club this time of year. so the impetus is on sales.

Still, things are as busy now as they’ll ever be. Though we’re not currently in the playing season, we are well into the sales season, which, in many ways, is more important than the games themselves. These short months determine whether we’ll have a productive year and, for some teams, whether there will be a 2011 season.

Hell, even the Field of Dreams wouldn’t be operational for long without a good sales and maintenance staff in place. As well-intentioned as they are, Terence Mann and Ray Kinsella wouldn’t survive for long without the aid of greater corporate America. Remember that beautiful wide-angled shot of the car-packed highways before the film’s credits? Those people have to park their cars and seat themselves somewhere.

Yes. Baseball, the game, belongs to the great people of this country. But, Baseball, the business, belongs to America’s corporate sector. Therefore, my primary responsibility during the preseason is to sell, sell, and sell some more.

Still, this is only one facet of my profession and one phase of the year. There are other aspects of my job … and other perks as well.

For whatever reason—be it familiarity, opportunity or something else unknown—employment in baseball seems to attract a large proportion of ex-ballplayers. The Sky Sox are no exception.

Around the office, there are at least three former college ballplayers. One in particular, Matt Pribbernow, is quite the baseball mind. A part-time baseball instructor when out of the office, he has tutored countless young players and continues to give lessons in his spare time. I’m very fortunate to have crossed Pribbernow’s path. He’s always eager to discuss baseball and to answer any of my inquiries with in-depth, detailed explanations.

It’s pretty lucky for me, as one of my goals while working for the Sky Sox was to find a network where I could improve my baseball acumen.

A two-way player at New Jersey’s Division III Richard-Stockton College, “Pribb,” as he’s known around the office, has an understanding of the game that is paralleled by few. Following work one mid-February afternoon, Pribb began tutoring me in the art of scouting.

Around 5 pm, I threw on the gym clothes I had brought to work and took the elevator down a floor to the clubhouse, next to the batting cages. That first session was a brief, but very important review of the basics. There, in the locker room, we discussed the importance of watching the game closely, paying attention to every little thing a player does: balance for fielder, pitcher and hitter; the importance of a good physique; watching how a batter swings at certain pitches.

For hitters, what type of batter is at the plate? Is he a dead-pull hitter or does he stay back and drive the ball to all fields? Can he stay back and adjust to an off-speed pitch or does he roll it over and tap a weak groundball to the pull side?

No one is better at adjusting to pitches than Manny Ramirez. If you can, find archived video tape of Manny driving a low and away change-up to Fenway’s right-center gap. Watch his balance. Watch him keep his hands back until the pitch comes into the zone. There’s no one better at it, and he’s made quite the career out of staying back on the pitch.

We discuss pitching.

The best hurlers can consistently throw and locate three pitches in all parts of the zone, staying out of the middle of the plate. The truly elite ones can identify a hitter's weakness during an at-bat and exploit it.

To do so, you have to be very observant. Pay attention to the scouting reports and watch what a hitter is having trouble with on that day. That includes watching his balance on different pitches you throw, whether he's making clean, well-timed swings, and if he's getting fooled or guessing on certain offerings.

After about an hour, we concluded the session and exited the clubhouse. As we rode the elevator back to the top floor, he left me with one last tidbit from his decades in the game.

“The most important thing I look for is work ethic. A kid can be a generational talent, but I’d never work with him unless he’s coachable and works hard. If he’s immature, he won’t dedicate himself to his craft and won’t improve. And, when it comes to these major league organizations, coaches won’t want to work with him—at which point he’ll never have a career.”

At the time, my only reaction was to nod my head. Later it got me thinking—about why certain prospects succeed while others fizzle out. Sure, talent is the primary mover in the process, but, as Bill James has often said, these young players have so much to improve upon that its anyone’s guess where they’ll ultimately end up.

Still, one thing is for sure: if you aren’t willing to work tirelessly to hone your craft, you’ll be eaten alive in the professional ranks. There’s just too many talented, assiduous players in the minors gunning for the same job. The game is just too cutthroat, the mountaintop so desirable, that it's no wonder only the most committed subjects reach paydirt.

And it’s also no surprise that so many players turn to PEDs. Oftentimes, I can’t blame them.

On a corollary, who’s to say that these young, impressionable players are even motivated enough to remain focused after multiple arduous, grueling minor league seasons? Fame and a big payday at the end of the tunnel is enough to keep the dream alive, but how many prospects flare out because they really don’t enjoy the minor league lifestyle?

At moments like these, I can’t help but invoke a conversation I had with a close professor of mine in college. Long-time Dodgers fans may recall his name; in the early 1980s, he was one of the best prospects in the game, the No. 2 outfielder in the Los Angeles minor league system.

But he quit.

Following the 1982 season, a young Anthony Lachowetz called it a career after a brief three-year stint in the Dodgers system.

The epitome of the early '80s five-tool player and an the impressive right fielder, he was infinitely talented, possessing excellent power, blazing speed, range, patience, intelligence and a howitzer of an arm.

In 1980, he stole a phenomenal 36 bases in just 212 at-bats in rookie ball. In 1982, with high-A Vero Beach, he clubbed 15 homers in 393 at-bats, walking 54 times. He was destined for stardom. He could have started in right field for one of the most prestigious franchises in major league history. He had everything a scout could dream of, except the desire to put his life on hold for the minors.

So he gave it all up.

As Dr. Lachowetz once told me, he got tired of toiling in the minor leagues, the low pay, the road trips, and, especially, watching his friends advance in their private sector careers while he played baseball. Though he was good, he had other interests, so he left it, even after the best season of his career.

It takes guts and a tremendous amount of intelligence to leave that kind of dream and opportunity behind. For that, he immediately earned my fullest respect. But what is most important to take away from his experience is that this is happening every day all across the country. Young players fall out of love with the game. Veterans look toward life after baseball even with three years remaining on their contracts.

Sure, there’s more money in baseball now, and there’s no saying whether or not Dr. Lachowetz would do the same thing if he played today. In fact, I regret having never asked him the question.

Still, there’s no denying that there are countless prospects in the minor leagues who don’t have the focus or the drive to commit themselves and see it all the way through. And who can blame them? For many players, it can be a decade or more until they stick in the bigs—if they ever do.

In baseball, nothing is guaranteed. At a moment’s notice, a career in the minors can end with nothing but memories—and, some would say, wasted years that one could have spent with friends, building a career, starting a family, or living a different life.

So, maybe Pribb is right. Maybe the most important attribute a prospect can possess is the requisite desire, work ethic, and perseverance to succeed. The more I think about it, the more I realize that sometimes talent isn’t the most important characteristic after all.

If you’re in doubt, just ask Tony.

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So, You Want to Work in Baseball? - Part I

Mike Silver — 2010-03-01T08:39:15+00:00

"So, You Want to Work in Baseball?" is an THT original series chronicling Mike Silver's experiences while working in the Public Relations Department of the Triple-AColorado Springs Sky Sox.

Every so often in life, you get a wakeup call.

Living in Washington, D.C., I watched as my two childhood best friends hit the working world while I prepped in a low-pressure office building. Within the confines of the Ad Answer, a promotional products company, I worked off summer nights and sleepless mornings – my last as an independent man.

For you young guys out there: Don’t be fooled – the working world is a very different place from the safe environs of a college classroom or home bedroom in high school. The rules change, as do other people.

There are higher levels of accountability, tests of focus, and more stress - fewer second chances, tougher moral challenges, and terminations in the place of late fees.

There’s a palpable discomfort surrounding the routine I’ve developed – get up at 8:30, shower, shave, brush; get on the bus at 9:00, get to Dupont by 9:30. Work until 5. Get back home at 6-6:30.

By then, you’re too tired to move, so you watch ESPN on the couch until 11 p.m. while you work off the fatigue of the day. Funny thing is, by the time you’re ready to go out, it’s time for bed and you do it all over again. Sometimes you might force yourself out on a Tuesday to taste the local fare and $1 Pabsts at the local bar – but its forced in a way it has never been before.

My friend Jake put it best, “It really sinks in when you have to find yourself health insurance. Ugh.”

Thank God I have access to his dementia.

But in the end, it's all the more reason to pursue a career I love, a luxury most people can never afford – and added motivation to begin planning for the future.

Fast-forward to October.

I’ve applied to countless affiliated ballclubs across the country, while sending out letters of inquiry to every reputable Indy league squad I can find – probably more than 60. The sheer number of options are daunting. Adding urgency to my search, I have to accept the fact that the Northeast constitutes a very small portion of the American baseball universe – and in four months I’ll be nowhere near Massachusetts.

Though this is something I’ve known since I submitted my application to the Sport Management Major at UMass more than three years ago – a top-3 program nationwide (sorry for bragging) – I have to admit it was something I’ve since tried to force to the back of my mind - out of both denial and necessity.

In sport, the intense competitiveness and volume of similar applicants has created an environment where you don’t choose the job - the job chooses you - and, if you aspire to become a player on the big stage, you inevitably cede control of a large portion of your autonomy: where you live, who your friends are, and with whom you associate.

Honesty, at times, it can be very disconcerting. And if I had been truthful with myself at age 19 - with the level of maturity I had at the time - I’m not sure I could have proceeded in this business.

Because it is a business.

The players, the glitz, and the glamour are all secondary to the revenue generation machine that constitutes the true backbone of this sport. Without this institution, MLB would be just another beer league.

Those looking for gainful employment in the sports world need to remember that sales is the primary task – and often only task - of 9 in 10 of those who call it a career. When professors stress the importance of sales in the workplace, make sure to listen. There’s never been a truer word spoken. For every one job in player analysis, there are 100 others in luxury-suite sales, corporate sponsorship, group ticket sales, marketing, promotions… the list goes on.

There are no fans in the workplace.

While the spectators’ universe revolves around the GM’s personnel moves, long blasts to center field, and the third out of the ninth inning, an employee’s revolves around deadlines. What most all of America fails to realize is that personnel decisions, contract negotiations, and locker room anecdotes constitute only the face of this business – the very tip of the baseball iceberg.

Without billions and billions of dollars - attained through countless hours invested in advertising, ticket sales, corporate sponsorship, sky box sales, etc. – affiliated baseball would not exist. Without revenue from tickets, fans don’t sit in the seats. Without advertising dollars, broadcasting corporations will search for another way to fill programming space.

This business is about MONEY, not finding the best available players or putting the best team on the field. It’s about turning profit, which means moving merchandise, selling program ad space, concessions, luxury suites, group ticket packages, and so on.

Do you ever remember thinking of how fun it would be to have a certain theme night at the ballpark? Well, the reason it’s never happened is not because someone didn’t think of it, but rather, because it probably doesn’t drive revenue streams to the stadium. A few walk-ups may decide to attend the game, but meaningful sums of money are not generated until group ticket packages can be sold or until a business can purchase sponsorships at the game, on TV, or on radio.

Bobblehead Night doesn’t occur because ownership thinks fans will enjoy a trinket or collectible now and then. They use it to drive attendance to the ballpark – and they schedule it on a Tuesday because those nights don’t sell out.

But I digress.

One of the major reasons I have Colorado Springs at the top of my list is due to the interviews I had with my potential boss, Assistant General Manager Mike Hobson.

If you find yourself in an interview, it is imperative to cast yourself as reliable, hardworking, and trusting. These are extremely important characteristics of any employee, akin to the “intangibles” in sports. Like speed, everyone wants them, but they can’t be taught.

But I never expected a potential boss to project himself in such a light, which Mike did. About five to 10 minutes into our first conversation, it was obvious that he had these attributes and was someone who I could work for and alongside.

Though the job is the primary draw from the vantage point of the job seeker, it’s critical that you be able to trust the person under whom you will be working. A lot of interviewers don’t understand this, but Mike certainly does. He seemed to have a sincere, vested interest in acting as a mentor and to help hone my skills for a successful future in this business.

I didn’t get that sense from any other team with whom I spoke – not the independent leagues, not the other minor league teams, and not the multiple calls from the Astros.

Though it’s an obvious fact, the importance of the personal interview cannot be understated. When teams call, it is imperative that you maintain your poise and calm. Some people make the mistake of sounding star struck, which never sets you in a positive light. Teams want intelligent, confident professionals, not awestruck fans.

Prepare yourself for difficult questions and have anecdotes ready when they arise. Recount every detail from work experiences that tested your patience, forced you to think quickly and creatively, and, especially, get broad with the definition of “sales.”

Whether or not you have ever found yourself – or ever will find yourself - making sales calls or conferences, you are a salesman every day of your life. Every organization, sport or otherwise, covets persuasive, quality salesmen. Even if you’re like me and work in PR, your career is still based in this vein. Two major tasks, selling the team to fans and selling spin to the media, are, at their core, sales initiatives.

It’s unavoidable and it takes hard work to develop the techniques. And, though there’s no right and wrong way to approach a sales pitch, like the greats in baseball, the elite intuitively get it.

It’s as simple as that.

Late on a Friday in mid-November, I schedule a meeting with my closest instructor, Professor Masteralexis, to once again review my options.

Very much a mentor to me since this process began, she knows the territory as few others do.

A very accomplished woman and role model to virtually every student in the major, she is the head of the UMass Sport Management Department. When not teaching, she, her husband, and another professor in the department advise MLB players in their boutique agency - even representing a favorite of mine among their clients, Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Manny Delcarmen. He’ll face his upcoming arbitration case with confidence, knowing full well he’s in excellent hands. I should know. The professor tutored me in agency for an independent study in the spring of 2007.

For about the third time this week, we go over my options… again. The same angles, the same apprehensions, and the same excitement. The same conversation…

…until she interrupts me mid-sentence.

“Mike, you’ve known the answer all along. Just do it.”

I nod.

Colorado it is.

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Player Profile: Chris Davis

Mike Silver — 2010-01-06T08:55:15+00:00

Coming into 2009, Chris Davis seemed to be on the up and up. With a blazing rookie season that included 17 home runs in 80 games, Davis was expected to lead his owners to fantasy glory. Instead, his game collapsed, as soaring strikeout rates brought down his overall line. Finally spared the embarrassment, Davis was sent down to Triple-A to work on his swing. After being called up in late August, Davis recovered somewhat but still struggled to find his form.

Still, while Davis' slump seemed to come out of nowhere, it was something that all of us could have seen coming. In reality, he's been this kind of player throughout his professional career—a powerful hacker who struggles with strikeouts, showing little to no plate discipline.

Drafted in the fifth round in 2006 by the Texas Rangers, Davis began his career for Spokane at Low-A later that season. The hulking 20-year-old had a good showing there, blasting 15 home runs in 253 at-bats, on his way to a .277/.343/.534 line. His plate discipline was less than optimal, with just 23 walks against 65 strikeouts (25.69 K percentage). Still, his power and projectability meant plenty of room for optimism, as Davis was promoted up the ladder for 2007.

The 2007 season was a big one for Davis. Starting out at High-A Bakersfield, he registered 386 at-bats, slugging 24 home runs. However, he struggled mightily at controlling the strike zone, walking just 22 times to go along with 123 punchouts (31.86 K percentage). Despite his struggles with plate discipline, Texas promoted Davis to Double-A Frisco to finish the season. Here, he displayed exactly the type of raw power that scouts were so excited about, mashing 12 long balls in just 109 at-bats. His poor plate discipline improved somewhat, as Davis worked 13 walks against 27 strikeouts (24.77 K percentage). With the type of raw power and tools displayed by Davis, he shot up the prospect hierarchy, registering second in the Texas organization and 65th in MLB. The sky officially the limit, Davis looked toward 2008 with an eye on improving his plate discipline while maintaining his power stroke.

Davis started the 2008 season at Frisco in a repeat of Double-A. He looked like much the same player as he had been since 2006: tons of power with a poor approach. Logging 186 at-bats, he mashed 13 home runs with just 13 walks and 44 strikeouts (23.65 K percentage) before his promotion to Triple-A Oklahoma. There, he continued his power-hitting ways, with 10 bombs in 111 at-bats, with lots of strikeouts (26.13 K percentage) and few walks. Still, Texas needed help at the dish and the organization promoted Davis, hoping he was ready for Prime Time.

The results were mixed. His overall line was much more than could be expected from a rookie (.285/.331/.549) and his power was superb (17 home runs in 295 at-bats). However, he was very much the same batter he had been in the minors, walking just 20 times but logging a whopping 88 strikeouts (29.8 K percentage). In addition, his triple slash line was aided significantly by a huge .353 BABIP that seemed destined to come back to earth. In 2009, his season came crashing down.

Last year was an unmitigated disaster for Davis. Things started off very poorly and never really got on track. A poor .200/.273/.429 April was followed up by an even worse .189/.238/.442 June. His .202/.256/.415 line before the break caused him to be sent down to Triple-A on July 6. After the dust settled on the year, Davis finished with a .238/.284/.442 line including 21 home runs in 391 at-bats. Not what owners expected.

While there were reasons to be down on his production, there are some reasons to be optimistic. First, it is encouraging that his problems this past season can be very easily isolated—at least statistically—meaning that, if next year is a rebound year, it should be easy to recognize.

There were really two problems that hurt Davis’ production in 2009 as compared to 2008. The first was his relative drop in BABIP, which declined from .353 to .327. Though still high, it isn’t unreasonably so for a player who posted a .361 BABIP in his minor league career consisting of 1,210 at-bats. Still, a drop in BABIP of 25 points would have lowered his 2008 batting average to .268.

Likewise, an increase in BABIP to .353 in 2009 would have brought his lowly .238 batting average to a poor—but at least tolerable—.252. That’s Step One.

Step Two, and the far more troublesome development, is the precipitous decline in his contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone. Other than his BABIP, this was nearly the only facet of Davis’ game that did not improve from 2008. Every other measure of his game took a step forward last season—even if that is not saying much for a player with such poor plate discipline.

Still, Davis was able to improve his selectivity at the plate, improving his O-Swing percentage by 3.2 percent (37.3 percent O-Swing in 2008 versus 34.1 percent in 2009) and increasing his Z-Swing percentage by another 3 percent (72.5 percent in ’08 to 75.5 percent in ’09). This corresponded with a drop in his overall swing percentage by about a full percentage point (54.3 percent in ’08 versus 53.4 percent in ’09). In addition, though his contact percentage dropped by almost five whole points (68.1 percent contact rate in 2008 versus 63.2 percent in 2009), his O-Contact rate was virtually stable, increasing by just 0.1 percent.

Meaning that his drop in contact rate was caused, primarily, by two factors. The lesser of the two factors was the drop in his Zone percentage by 1.6 percent (48.2 percent in ’08 versus 46.6 percent in ’09). This, when taking into account his free-swinging ways, was actually a negative development, as most batters who see fewer pitches in the zone can turn this into more walks. Davis, unfortunately, could not. The second factor—and the one that is far more troubling—was his enormous drop in his zone contact rate of more than 8 percentage points (79.1 percent in ’08 versus 70.8 percent in ’09). This absolutely obliterated his contact percentage, with some gruesome results, which were seen in his 38.4 strikeout percentage—second in the league only to the incomparable Mark Reynolds. Ouch.

But that does not close the book on Davis. The fact that he was still able to put up the power numbers that he did is quite impressive—given his prodigious strikeout rates. Many players, when struggling with such strikeout totals, significantly alter their plate approach and lose much of their power. That Davis did not is encouraging for his power output.

The key for Davis in 2010 will be to recapture at least some of his ability to make contact with pitches inside the zone. He has one of the worst combinations of poor plate discipline and poor contact skills in the league. Until he rectifies these problems, he will struggle to put up any sort of tolerable batting average. For next season, watch his Z-Contact rate and his O-Swing Percentage. If he is able to raise his Z-Contact rate to his ’08 levels and continue to drop his O-Swing Percentage, he could be able to again crack the 30 percent strikeout barrier. This would be a great benefit to his batting average and could bring it back up to the .260s—given that the power is still there, which it should be.

For the 2010 season, don’t expect too much from Davis. A 30-35 home run season with a batting average in the .255-.265 range seems likely, though his OPS may not reach far above .800 due to his lack of walks. In the end, it all rests on that contact rate. If it can get up near the 70 percent range, then he is a good player to target in a midseason trade. If it can somehow get higher than that number, it could be a very good year. Still, temper your enthusiasm, as Davis proved last season that he has serious difficulties hitting major league pitching. He’s worth drafting as an upside play, but don’t be shocked if he annihilates your batting average as he did in 2009. Feel free to draft him, but do it late and with caution—he's a well below-average option at first base. And please, don't pin your home run hopes to his lumber. He'll hurt you in nearly every other category.

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Player Profile: Nolan Reimold

Mike Silver — 2009-12-30T04:48:15+00:00

Brought up midseason to buttress a beleaguered Orioles outfield, Nolan Reimold was one of the bigger surprises of the 2009 fantasy season. Drawn from relative obscurity, he put up good power numbers and a decent batting average—rounding out many teams in need of free outfield help off the waiver wire. But where did this Nolan Reimold come from? And, more importantly, what can we expect from him next season?

Drafted in the second round of the 2005 June draft by the Baltimore Orioles, the 21-year-old Reimold began his professional baseball career at Aberdeen of the New York-Penn League. He got off to quite the hot start, showing good power (nine home runs in 180 at-bats) with a good sense of the strike zone, walking 29 times to go along with 44 strikeouts on his way to a .294/.392/.550 line. Finishing out the season at High-A Frederick, Reimold continued his hot hitting, belting six homers in 83 at-bats, with 12 walks but a ghastly 27 strikeouts. Still, his power potential was very encouraging, propelling the outfielder to a ranking of fourth-best in the Orioles' system and 99th-best in MLB. Acquitting himself well, Reimold was left to repeat High-A in 2006, where he would continue to work on his plate discipline and power stroke.

As in the season before, Reimold’s 2006 was a positive mix of power and plate discipline, but some nagging strikeout issues. With 19 home runs in 415 at-bats and a 76:107 walk to strikeout rate, Reimold put up a .255/.379/.455 line. While his BB:K rate was very encouraging—especially his 15.5 walk percentage—his strikeouts were still less than optimal, as he struck out in just under 26 percent of his at-bats. Without 30-plus home run power, it was starting to look like he would struggle to put up consistently good batting averages. Still, the Orioles had little to complain about with a powerful batter who profiled as a starting corner outfielder.

2007 was very much a lost season for Reimold, as he registered just 242 plate appearances between nine games at rookie ball and 50 at Double-A Bowie. In the time he did play, he posted another solid season for a power-hitting prospect, belting 11 home runs in 186 at bats. However, his plate discipline faltered in the promotion, as Double-A pitchers ate him up to a 0.36 BB:K ratio with 47 strikeouts in 186 at-bats, against just 17 walks. While he didn’t strike out with any more frequency at Double-A, the drop in walks was a concern, hinting that Reimold could have problems controlling the strike zone at the upper levels of the minors. Still, the season was a fine one and prospects had made careers with less. Still among the best prospects in the Orioles’ system, Reimold headed to 2008 scheduled for a repeat of Double-A Bowie, where he looked to put a full season together in his path to the big leagues.

His age-24 season under way, Reimold showed some good improvement in his second tour at Bowie. In 507 at-bats, Reimold slugged 25 home runs, with a 0.77 BB:K ratio. His walk rate recovered a bit from its 2007 decline, rising to 11.1 percent. Perhaps more exciting, however, was Reimold’s steep drop in strikeouts, as he whiffed just 82 times in 507 at-bats, good for a 16.2 percent K-rate. For a batter with good, not great, power like Reimold, this was a welcome development, as it was a great help to his rate statistics and batting averages. On the strength of his .284/.367/.501 line, Reimold headed to Triple-A as Baltimore’s fifth-best prospect and one with his eye on a possible big league call-up.

The 2009 season was a big one for the 25-year-old Reimold, as it included a blistering stint at Triple-A followed by his promotion and success as the major league level. His short stint at Triple-A consisted of just 31 games and 109 at-bats, including nine home runs and a .394/.485/.743 line. The big club needing reinforcements from injury early on, Reimold was called up in mid-May and stayed there for good. Playing in 104 games, Reimold performed very well, especially for a rookie getting his first dose of major league pitching. With 358 at-bats to his credit, he slugged 15 home runs to go along with a 0.61 BB:K ratio on his way to a .279/.365/.466 triple slash line. Overall, it was a very good rookie season, though not spectacular by any means.

The bottom line on Reimold seems to be that he is a good hitter though lacking in any real star power. For fantasy purposes, his power hitting is really his best asset, though it doesn’t seem to be anything out of the ordinary when it comes to fantasy batters. His 14.2 percent HR/FB ratio is a good number but nothing to write home about, comparable to Matt Kemp (14.4 percent), Pablo Sandoval (14.0 percent) and Mark DeRosa (14.5 percent). It would help his power numbers to hit a higher percentage of fly balls, as his 37.3 percent flyball rate is, again, nothing special. His 1.29 GB/FB rate could use a little help as well for a player profiling as a power hitter as Reimold does.

If anything in his batted ball profile could use improvement, however, it would be his line drive rate and his pop-up rate. With just a 14.4 percent line drive rate on the season, Reimold would benefit from hitting a few more line drives. However, his .320 BABIP means that the low line drive rate didn’t hurt him much last year. His pop-up rate of 16.0 percent is also a poor number, leading to too many easy outs. If he had qualified for the batting title last season, he would have had the fifth-highest pop-up rate in the league—not the most glowing review of his prospects for maintaining a .320 BABIP.

In terms of his plate discipline, what you see is just about what you get. His 21.5 percent strikeout rate and 11.6 percent walk rate are right about where you would expect them to be, given his plate discipline indicators. His 80.3 percent contact rate is good for a power hitter and his 20.5 percent O-Swing percentage is encouraging in that he doesn’t chase poor pitches often. With a 42.3 percent swing rate and 50.5 percent zone percentage, he will be continue to draw walks at a good rate, so there doesn’t seem to be much to worry about here. Everything seems to be right in place.

Overall, Reimold profiles as a below-average outfielder in 12-team mixed leagues, which, considering the standards it takes to be an average outfielder, is still valuable. For next year, he seems good for some where in the mid-20s for home runs, with a shot to launch 30 bombs. His batting average should fall somewhere right around .270, given a slight regression in his BABIP. Tossing in double-digit steals, he looks like a good bet for some decent production next year, but nothing overly spectacular.

When analyzing his stats early on, keep an eye on his line drive rate, strikeout rate, and O-Swing percentage. It would be nice to see an improvement in his line drive percentage, which would indicate that he is putting better swings on the ball. His strikeout rate and O-Swing rate will likely go hand-in-hand. If he can keep the O-Swing rate down, he’ll likely be fine on the strikeout front—which really hasn’t been problematic since 2007. In all, Reimold should be a solid pick, just don’t expect anything overwhelming out of his stat line.

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Player Profile: Troy Tulowitzki

Mike Silver — 2009-12-24T10:00:15+00:00

Well, Phil Hughes was the true winner of the poll, but his fantasy value seems to have taken a hit with the New York Yankees’ signing of Javier Vazquez, which significantly hurts Hughes' chances at locking up a rotation spot in 2010. So, instead, we’ll focus on Colorado shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.

That’s what we call a rebound year. After turning in a paltry 2008 in which he burned plenty of fantasy owners, myself included, Tulo came back in a big way, blasting 32 home runs in 543 at-bats on his way to a .297/.377/.552 line. Though he was also quite good in 2007, this was a breakout year of sorts for the young shortstop, as he improved in a number of facets of his game, which substantially improved his outlook for the future.

Troy Tulowitzki was drafted seventh overall by the Colorado Rockies in 2005 out of Long Beach State. He premiered that season at High-A ball, where he acquitted himself nicely, showing decent power and strike zone judgment, slugging four home runs in 94 at-bats to go along with a 1/2 BB/K rate. Scouts loved his tools and upside, as Tulo ranked as Colorado’s second-best prospect and 25th in the majors.

To begin 2006, the Colorado brass promoted Tulo to Double-A Tulsa. There, he impressed again, hitting 13 home runs in 423 at-bats, with 46 walks against 71 strikeouts. His .291/.370/.473 line got the attention of the big club, who promoted Tulo for a 25-game stretch. Not surprisingly, the young shortstop struggled in his first taste of the bigs, posting a .240/.318/.292 line, with 25 strikeouts in 96 at-bats. Still, the optimists couldn’t be drowned out, as Tulo topped the charts in the Colorado system while also placing 15th in MLB. With the big league job available, Colorado promoted Tulo to the majors for good, where he would begin 2007.

The 2007 season was a banner one for Tulowitzki. The pride of the Colorado system, Tulo exploded onto the scene his rookie season. Through 609 at-bats, the shortstop slugged 24 home runs in 609 at-bats, with a .291/.359/.479 line. His 57 walks weren’t the best—and neither was his 130 strikeout total. Still, he was quite the rookie—and at shortstop no less. As a result, the team signed him to a six-year, $31 million contract in January that would carry him through the 2013, with a team option for 2014. With the sky the limit, the Rockies headed into 2008 with their prized shortstop locked up for the long term and hopes of an NL West championship. The results would be much different.

The 2008 season was not kind to Tulowitzki. Battling injuries and a sophomore slump, Tulo struggled to put up a respectable stat line. His power disappeared, as he hit just eight home runs in 377 at-bats, while his OPS sagged over .100 points, as he posted a .263/.332/.401 line. On the bright side, his walk rate improved, from 8.6 percent in 2007 to 9.2 percent, and his strikeout rate dropped to 14.9 percent. There was not much else that could be salvaged from the season, however, as quadriceps and a hand injuries slowed his season and he played just 101 games. As a result, all the team could do was look forward to 2009 and greener pastures.

Looking for – or, perhaps, desperately needing – a big rebound, Tulowitzki set out to prove that 2008 was a fluke. And prove he did, with the best season of his career and one of the best of any shortstop in 2009. Besides the obvious power and speed surge witnessed last year, Tulowitzki matured at the plate in a number of ways.

For one, he became more selective at the plate. His 73 walks in 628 plate appearances was a great step forward for the hitter, as he was able to reach the 10 percent walk rate milestone. His 20.6 strikeout percentage was also an accomplishment, given his increases in walks. Many hitters see a substantial increase in strikeouts as they become more selective. However, Tulo’s strikeout rate was right in line with his career rate of 19.9 percent, and his 0.65 BB/K rate was above his career rate of 0.55.

His selectivity showed in his plate discipline indicators as well, as his O-Swing percentage dropped over 2 percentage points from 2008 (23.7 percent in 2008 to 21.5 percent in 2009), while his Z-Swing percentage remained relatively steady, dropping just 0.3 percentage points from 2008. This suggests that his strike zone judgment improved, as he swung at a higher proportion of the pitches inside the zone.

Though his contact rate decreased from 2008 by 1.2 percentage points, an 83.9 percent contact rate is a fine number and should be adequate going forward. In addition, his Zone percentage dropped 4 percentage points from 2008 (54.8 percent in 2008 to 50.8 percent in 2009) as pitchers began to respect his power. This bodes well for Tulo’s walk totals. Should his batting eye continue to develop the way it did in 2009, Tulo could become quite the walk machine with a drop in his O-Swing percentage.

Still, besides his obvious power increase and improved plate discipline, there was not much of a change in Tulo’s game between the 2008 and 2009 seasons. His batting profile stayed quite constant, as his GB/FB ratio stayed right above 1 (1.13 GB/FB in 2008 versus 1.05 in 2009) and his infield flyball percentage remained almost constant (11.7 percent in 2008 versus 11.6 in 2009). Though his line drive percentage dropped between 2008 and 2009 (20.5 percent in 2008 versus 18.4 percent in 2009), his BABIP showed no ill effects, actually climbing by over 30 points, to .323—up from .291 in 2008. In a way, it almost goes to show how unreliable line drive percentage can be on its own as a predictor of BABIP.

For 2010, there are a few keys to watch. The most important part of Tulo’s game will certainly be his improved power output. This was the big key to his 2009 reclamation, as his HR/FB rate almost tripled, climbing from 6.7 percent in 2008 to 18.5 percent in 2009. It is a bit tough seeing him repeat these numbers, though he does play half of his games at a high altitude. Like every other Rockies hitter, he plays far better at home, with a .326/.403/.597 line at Coors in 2009, versus a .267/.352/.507 line everywhere else. Still, with his youth and favorable contract, you won’t have to worry about him being traded midseason and losing half his value like many other Colorado hitters. His 18.5 percent HR/FB rate puts him right above Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Kendry Morales and Mark Teixeira. While it’s certainly possible that Tulo carries that kind of thump in his bat, it may be a bit optimistic. Expect some regression in this category.

If there’s room for more optimism, it may lie in his left/right and pre-/post-All-Star splits. He had a bit of a reverse platoon split last season, with a .269/.382/.519 line against lefties versus a .307/.376/.566 line against righties. Should that line begin to favor the opposite hand as it does most other hitters, it will be a nice little bonus to his overall line. As for his post-All-Star explosion, he batted a blistering .344/.421/.622 after the break last season, with a 34/48 BB/K ratio. If you’re into that sort of thing and like the good vibrations coming off his bat late in the year, than you can take comfort in that stat.

For 2010, watch Tulo’s HR/FB rate, his O-Swing rate, and his Zone percentage. If his HR/FB rate is high, which it should be, he’ll be in line for another season like this past one—though don’t bank on 30+ home runs. In addition, his O-Swing rate will have a lot to say about whether he drives the ball in the upcoming season, so whether he can maintain or improve on his 2009 figure is a key factor in his success next year. And, rounding it out, his Zone percentage will help you gauge his walk and strikeout rates. Tied to his HR/FB rate and his O-Swing rate, if he can slug home runs out of the park on a regular basis, while laying off pitches outside the zone, he’ll find himself in frequent hitter’s counts and taking a free pass to first. This will help considerably, especially in OPS leagues.

Overall, think of Tulo next season as a 25-homer guy, with a shot a 30 bombs, who can post upwards of 100 runs and 100 RBIs. A .280-.290 average seems about right, though his stolen base numbers are tough to predict since this is his first season where he showcased his speed on the basepaths. Twenty steals may be a bit optimistic, though 10-15 is certainly plausible. All told, Tulo looks like one of the best options at shortstop for 2010. Even with his poor 2008, he looks like a very good bet to produce in 2010. Draft him with confidence.

And if I’m lucky enough to come across him next season in Colorado Springs, I’ll ask him to put in an extra bomb or two for the readers.

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Player Profile: Adam Jones

Mike Silver — 2009-12-16T05:15:15+00:00

Adam “Not Pac Man” Jones made a big step forward in his big league career in 2009. The 24-year-old put up an excellent season for a center fielder, with a .277/.335/.457 triple-slash line on the year, up from a .270/.311/.400 year in 2008. A great improvement for the young player, and there is both cause for excitement and concern for Jones going forward.

Drafted 37th overall out of Morse High School in 2003 by the Seattle Mariners, Jones got started quickly, registering 123 at-bats that season as a 17-year-old between rookie and A-ball. Young Adam showed well there, with a .284/.368/.349 line in 124 rookie-ball plate appearances, with a .462/.467/.538 nightcap in 14 plate appearances at Low-A Everett.

Jones moved up to the Midwest League for 2004 as an 18-year-old and acquitted himself well. In 548 plate appearances in A-ball, Jones hit 11 home runs to go along with eight stolen bases. His plate discipline was not up to par, however, with 33 walks against 124 strikeouts leading to a .267/.314/.404 line. Still, Jones’ youth and excellent raw tools made him a gem in the Seattle organization, as he was ranked their ninth-best prospect at the end of the season. As a result, he was moved to High-A to begin 2005.

Opening his age-19 season, Jones started the year at Inland Empire of the California League, where he hit .295/.374/.494 in 271 at-bats including eight home runs. Jones’ plate discipline started showing some signs of improvement, as he posted nearly a 1:2 BB:K ratio with 29 walks against 64 strikeouts. His power began to show some real promise as well, as he hit eight home runs before being moved up to Double-A San Antonio. There, he hit seven home runs in 228 at-bats with 22 walks against 48 strikeouts on his way to a .298/.365/.461 line. On the shoulders of burgeoning power potential and improved plate discipline, Jones ranked as the eighth-best prospect in the Seattle system. His star rising, Jones was ticketed for Triple-A for 2006.

As a 20-year-old at Tacoma of the Pacific Coast League, Jones showed all the Seattle faithful what all the fuss was about. In 380 at-bats, the young center fielder hit 16 long balls to go along with 13 stolen bases. His plate discipline was a struggle once again, with just 28 walks against 78 strikeouts. However, his .287/.345/.484 line meant that all was forgiven and he was afforded a 32-game stint in the bigs. He flopped in this initial showing, striking out 22 times in 74 at-bats with just two walks. His .216/.237/.311 confirmed that he was not yet ready for the big time. Still, Jones came a long way over the course of the season and placed as Seattle’s second-best prospect and the 64th-best in MLB.

Repeating Triple-A in 2007, Jones had quite the breakout season. Through 420 at-bats, Jones planted 25 bombs into Tacoma stands on his way to a .314/.382/.586 line. His plate discipline was, again, subpar, with a 36:106 BB:K ratio. However, the raw tools and power proved irresistible and Jones was promoted to the big club again. Again, like in 2006, Jones flopped in his short showing, striking out 21 times in 65 at-bats against just four walks. However, the explosion at Tacoma significantly lifted his stock as Jones placed as Seattle’s best prospect and 28th-best in MLB. Despite the improvements, however, Jones was forced to switch organizations after a trade to Baltimore in February, where he would begin 2008 as the team’s starting center fielder.

In 2008, Jones finally found his form at the major league level. He finally got his strikeout rates under control. After two seasons of K-rates around 30 percent, Jones dropped the rate to 22.6. His overall line was acceptable, though disappointing, at .270/.311/.400. Still, his power did not carry over from 2007, as he hit just nine home runs in 477 at-bats to finish with a paltry 6.9 HR/FB percentage. His plate discipline was again poor, with 23 walks against 108 strikeouts. Still young at 23, but now in his second organization, Jones was beginning to get a whiff of unfulfilled expectations. Still, Baltimore was a great training grounds, as unfulfilled expectations were nothing new there.

Officially on the former prospect clock, Jones needed to deliver on promise in 2009 to reaffirm his prospect star—and deliver he did. For the 2009 season, Jones posted a .277/.335/.457 line with 19 home runs, including a blistering April and May that included 11 home runs in 183 at-bats. But that was about it for Jones, as he only posted one month of a .700+ OPS the rest of the season. Jones’ second-half line was particularly concerning, totaling .222/.290/.405.

Jones’ 2009 season, while showing great improvement over his previous performances, tells the tale of a player with tremendous potential who is still a bit overmatched at the plate.

In the plus column, Jones again cut down his strikeout rate from 22.6 percent in 2008 to 19.7 percent in 2009. Crossing the 20 percent threshold is a nice milestone for Jones, especially given that he struck out in 32.3 percent of his 2007 at-bats. In addition, his walk percentage rose to 7.1 percent, which is another great improvement for a batter who struggled so mightily just two seasons ago.

Despite the good-but-not-great home run totals on 2009, Jones really broke out in a big way with the power numbers, posting a 17.8 HR/FB rate—which is in the neighborhood of such luminaries as Mark Teixeira (17.8 HR/FB rate) and Evan Longoria (17.6 HR/FB rate). It’s hard not to be optimistic about a player who is in that kind of company. Further, his 5.6 IFFB percentage showed that he was making clean contact with the ball and was not overmatched by fastballs. This was confirmed by his vastly improved performance against heaters, rising from a -0.81 wFB/C in 2008 to -0.09 wFB/C in 2009. Overall, it was quite the improvement for Jones.

But there was just as much to be concerned about, especially regarding Jones’ plate discipline indicators. First off, Jones, again, posted a low contact rate of just 74.6 percent, a decline from his 76.9 percent in 2008. Jones also showed no improvement in his free-swinging ways, offering at 53.7 percent of all pitches he saw, hacking at a staggering rate of 35.3 percent of pitches outside the zone—good for eighth-worst in the league among qualified batters. This was compounded by the fact that pitchers caught on to his tendencies, throwing him just 48.4 percent of pitches inside the zone.

Jones’ problems go a bit deeper than just poor plate discipline, however. His injury problems are becoming a significant issue, as he played in just 119 games in 2009, down from 132 in 2008. He missed time for five ailments in 2009, including his hamstring, shin, neck, back, and ankle—which ultimately ended his season in September.

Jones’ swing plane is also a problematic as well. For a player with as much power potential as Jones has, his groundball tendencies are quite troublesome, as he posted the seventh-highest groundball rate last season at 55.4 percent, right around such power threats as Elvis Andrus and Nyjer Morgan. Without an improved flyball rate, Jones will never reach his ultimate power potential. However, for fantasy owners, this does constitute an opportunity as well as a risk, as any improvements in his groundball rate will be a great sign for his power output for the upcoming season.

As he has been cast since 2006, Adam Jones is a player with just as much potential for stardom as he has for disappointment. Jones is really a very interesting player. His power potential and adequate 2009 season mitigate his floor for 2010, while he has so much room for improvement for the rest of his offensive game that, if he figured it out at any time, he could explode as one of the better outfielders in fantasy baseball. It is difficult to say when he will make the breakout—and this is what will be the next phase of his game. For 2010, watch his O-Swing percentage, swing percentage, contact rate, and flyball rate in particular. If his O-Swing percentage drops, the walks will go up and he’ll see better pitches to hit. If his flyball rate improves, the homers will really start leaving the park with good frequency.

Overall, Jones presents excellent potential—just don’t get carried away with it. There haven’t been any signs that he will improve his plate discipline, so until you see them, don’t bank on it. Also, his groundball rate significantly mitigates his power potential, so until that improves, be careful. In the end, Jones projects as a league-average outfielder in 2010, with low- to mid-20s home runs, double-digit steals, and a batting average around .280. Good, not great. Still, he’s worth drafting on potential alone. And, if you don’t get him, watch the indicators to see if you can pull off a big trade during the year.

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Player Profile: Tommy Hanson

Mike Silver — 2009-12-09T08:43:15+00:00

Now that’s the kind of rookie year you want your top pitching prospect to have. Tommy Hanson exploded onto the scene in 2009, posting some incredible numbers, including a 2.89 ERA, 3.50 FIP, and 116 strikeouts in 127.2 innings. It was quite the year for the young pitcher, as he was able to move from top prospect to bona fide stud in four short months. Not a bad showing for a 23-year-old.

Drafted in the 22nd round out of Riverside Community College, 19-year-old Hanson began his professional career at Danville in the Appalachian League. In a 51.2 innings stretch spanning 13 games and eight starts, Hanson dominated the competition, striking out 56 batters while allowing just nine walks. With a great debut in professional ball, the Braves promoted their budding star to Single-A for the following season.

Hanson picked up right where he left off in 2007 at Rome in the Sally League. Through 73 innings, the hurler struck out 90 batters while walking 26—good enough for a promotion to High-A Myrtle Beach. In his final 60 innings of the season, Hanson continued to dominate hitters, with 64 strikeouts and 32 walks. With 154 strikeouts in 133 innings (10.42 K/9), Hanson made his first appearance on the prospect landscape, ranking as the ninth-best prospect in the Braves organization.

Despite the dominating stuff, however, Hanson’s form needed a little more refinement, as his good walk rates from Rookie Ball and Single-A were replaced by a poor one at High-A. The Braves thought it prudent to let him work out his issues with a repeat performance at Myrtle Beach to begin 2008.

Hanson’s second tour of High-A was short-lived, as his outstanding line of 49 strikeouts against just 11 walks in 40 innings allowed him to punch a ticket to Double-A Mississippi. The subsequent showing at Double-A was impressive as well, as Hanson struck out 114 batters in 98 innings. However, his command issues resurfaced to an extent, as he walked 41 batters (3.76 BB/9), bringing a slight dark cloud over his performance.

However, when ranking young pitchers, stuff trumps all—and Hanson had this in spades. As a result, he rocketed up the prospect charts, placing first among Atlanta prospects and fourth in MLB. Challenging for a rotation spot in spring training of 2009, Hanson was on the outside looking in due to his available options and in an effort by the Braves to delay Hanson’s arbitration eligibility. As a result, he began the season at Triple-A Gwinnett, where he absolutely stifled the competition.

Triple-A was to be a big test for Hanson, as his performance there would determine his timetable for reaching and staying in the majors. Hanson did not disappoint. In 66.1 innings, he was able to post 90 strikeouts while walking just 17 batters. Battling for a roster opening with Gwinnett rotation mate Kris Medlen, Hanson debuted just two weeks after his teammate on June 7.

Hanson fought through growing pains in June despite posting a 2.48 ERA, as he could not find the zone nor strike out batters—leading to a 17:18 walk to strikeout ratio in his first 29 innings. Hanson quickly worked out of this early summer lull, however, with elite performances the rest of the way, including 98 strikeouts against 29 walks in 98.2 innings.

Any way you slice it, Hanson had quite the performance his rookie season. Aside from his struggles in June, Hanson was quite the dominant pitcher. His dazzling 8.18 K/9 rate, including an 8.9 K/9 rate after June, was excellent for a rookie, especially considering his 3.24 BB/9 rate on the season, which included a 2.64 BB/9 line after June.

Just as good as his overall line were his secondary indicators. Hanson posted a very good contact rate at 77.2 percent, which bodes well for his strikeout totals next season. Though his Zone percentage is low at 48.7 percent, this is mitigated by a great first strike percentage (63.4 percent)—meaning that Hanson works from ahead in the count in plenty of his matchups, allowing him to induce plenty of swings and misses outside the zone when the hitters expand the zone late in the at-bat.

This approach works to Hanson’s favor as his stuff worked best last year when he forced hitters to swing outside the zone. Hanson’s O-Contact percentage is well above average at 54.3 percent, which places him in the top 20 percent in the league for the 2009 season among pitchers who pitched at least 120 innings. On the other hand, his Zone Contact percentage was 87.2 percent—right around the league average.

Despite the great success, Hanson still has a coupled points to work on for the 2010 season. With his success on pitches outside the zone, it would help his K-rate greatly if he could induce more swings outside the zone. His O-Swing percentage was right about average at 25.5 percent. While not a bad number, it doesn’t help his strength which is inducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone.

In addition, Hanson could stand to make some improvements on his change up for the upcoming year. He used it sparingly for a reason, as hitters mashed it when he did throw it, leading to a -1.85 wCH/C.

Hanson may also see a bit of regression in his home run rate. A low 6.9 HR/FB rate aided Hanson’s 3.50 FIP last season and this can be expected to equalize in the upcoming season. If Hanson could improve his 0.97 GB:FB rate, it will help mitigate some of this regression. Still, expect his home run rate to rise a bit next year. Also, his 1.18 WHIP will likely rise in 2010, as his very low .280 BABIP should also regress to the league average.

With an excellent arsenal, great pedigree, and stellar rookie season in his back pocket, Hanson seems primed for a great 2010. He shouldn’t be expected to repeat his sparkling 2.89 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. However, a 3.60-3.80 ERA is a good target, with a 1.25 WHIP. A K/9 rate in the 8-9 range seems likely, as does a walk rate right around 3.0 BB/9. Overall, Hanson represents an above-average starting pitcher in 12-team mixed leagues with a chance to outperform these projections and post some excellent strikeout rates. Draft Hanson with confidence. He will make his fantasy owners very happy this year.

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Player Profile: Ricky Nolasco and sticking to your guns

Mike Silver — 2009-12-02T05:05:15+00:00

Sometimes it can be very difficult to stick to your guns when every instinct and every bone in your body tells you otherwise. Such was Ricky Nolasco throughout the 2009 season. Fortunately, reasoning and better judgment usually wins out over lesser methods. Unfortunately, last year your gut was right—you should have cut Nolasco last year.

Now, that doesn’t mean that owners who kept Nolasco made the wrong decision. After all, he did have a very high BABIP (.336) and a shockingly low stranded runner rate (61.0 percent). Nine times out of 10, Nolasco shakes off the curse and delivers outstanding numbers in line with his peripherals. Unfortunately, probability states that there is a one in 10 chance of the other scenario occurring—and it did.

But that doesn’t mean that owners should shy away from Nolasco for 2010. In fact, he may be one of the best buy-low candidates in the league. There are likely to be a large contingent of owners who are scared off by his 5.06 ERA, driving his draft stock down. Ever the vigilant analyst, ESPN’s Tristan Cockroft recently released his preliminary 2010 rankings. In the list, Nolasco was able to reach 88th overall, just below Clayton Kershaw (82) and Tommy Hanson (86), with Cole Hamels (93) occupying the next pitcher on the rung.

These lofty projections for Nolasco are somewhat surprising, as it is not often that a pitcher with a 5.00+ ERA is able to maintain any semblance of fantasy value the next season, let alone the top 100. However, this could be indicative of changing moods toward advanced statistical analysis among fantasy baseball junkies. Ever the industry standard for fantasy rankings, ESPN analysts tend to have a good sense of their consumers' opinions—and what they don’t have a sense of, they can influence with positive support.

Take Nolasco for example. A couple of years ago, he likely would have ranked considerably lower on the list, despite his excellent peripherals. However, in 2009, the loudest voices among the fantasy baseball community seem to be echoing this increased emphasis on sabermetrics, which will undoubtedly cause the rest of the fantasy world to follow suit. In practice, this means that if Cockroft says Nolasco should go 88, he probably will due to the power of suggestion. I like to call this the Eric Karabell Effect, though Cockroft deserves just as much notice in that regard.

Therefore, if you are looking to get a big steal on Nolasco, this may not be the year to do it—that is, he won’t be going in round 15 like he may have a number of years ago when he would have been one of the best picks in the draft. If he is, in fact, destined to go at the 88th pick, he will still outperform his draft slot. However, don’t reach on him too many rounds above that 88th slot, or he may not even be a value pick.

Disregarding his loftier-than-expected draft slot, there are many reasons to be optimistic about Nolasco for 2010. Despite his struggles in 2009, he has the profile of one of the better, more underrated starting options in fantasy baseball. For traditional 5x5 roto leagues, Nolasco’s peripherals cast him in as a Roy Halladay-light type of player—substituting control for added strikeouts.

Aside from the obvious difference that Halladay throws more innings and has a superior groundball rate, the two pitchers are quite similar for our guts-and-bones applications of fantasy baseball. In addition, the two could have been very similar in overall value had Nolasco been able to register a lower BABIP and ERA.

Both have exceptional control: Halladay had a 1.32 BB/9 in 2009 with a 2.00 career rate, while Nolasco had a 2.14 BB/9 in ’09 with a 2.19 BB/9 in his career. Halladay had a 7.54 K/9 in ’08 with a 7.83 K/9 in ’09; Nolasco had a 7.88 K/9 in 2008 and a 9.49 K/9 in ’09. Though there may be a discrepancy in the 2009 strikeout rates between the two pitchers, it is worth noting that Nolasco’s regressed strikeout rates, based on his plate discipline indicators, are much closer to the high-7s to mid-8s strikeouts per nine, instead of 9.5 K/9, which are more similar to Halladay’s numbers.

Nolasco’s plate discipline indicators are also very encouraging for his 2010 outlook. He induces a good share of swings outside the zone, at 29.3 percent, while also getting a good, but not great, share of swings and misses with a 78.2 percent contact rating. Though he was able to post a 9.45 K/9 rate in 2009, his contact percentage, coupled with his high BABIP, are the primary reasons why Nolasco is expected to see some regression in his strikeout rate for 2010. He won’t be posting a rate in the 6s any time soon, but a 9+ strikeout rate may be a bit optimistic.

Most importantly, however, is that his ERA is expected to rebound in a big way for 2010. Nolasco registered a 3.35 FIP ERA for 2009, which is much more indicative of his actual level of talent. Normalizing his BABIP to the league average, he could also have registered a WHIP just north of 1.10, which would be among the league’s best.

For 2010, don’t be afraid of taking Nolasco in the first half of the draft. Though an 88th overall ranking may be a bit disappointing for those hoping to sit on the pitcher as a sleeper, he is still a bit undervalued and will make many teams happy. If Cockroft’s rankings are not reflected in most draft rooms and Nolasco drops to the second half of the draft, he has the chance to be one of the best value picks in 2010. In that case, it’s more than OK to reach.

For next season, it is reasonable to expect more of the same out of Nolasco with a low-3s ERA, a sub-1.2 WHIP, and a good and strikeout total. An ERA around 3.2-3.6 and a 1.10-1.20 WHIP seem likely, with a K/9 rate around 8 thrown in for good measure. If he delivers on the promise, Nolasco will be one of the better fantasy pitchers around and he could be a great case study for the applications of advanced statistical analysis in fantasy baseball.

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Player Profile: Rick Porcello

Mike Silver — 2009-11-18T09:03:15+00:00

Rick Porcello is quite the prospect. After losing his rookie status following the 2009 season, "prospect" may be a bit of a misnomer. Still over a month short of his 21st birthday, Porcello is just as much projectability as he is a polished product.

Drafted 27th overall out of Seton Hall Prep in the 2007 draft, Porcello was widely considered the top high school pitching prospect in the draft. Baseball America was particularly high on his outlook, going so far to state that he was the best high school pitching prospect since Josh Beckett.

After signing a $7.285 million contract that included a $3.58 million bonus, Porcello debuted at High-A Lakeland to begin 2008. His initial taste of professional ball was sweet, as he posted a 2.66 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 125 innings. Facing 527 batters, Porcello walked just 33 for a 0.0626 BB percentage, allowing only seven home runs. The control and groundball tendencies were a welcome sight from the right-hander. However, the lack of strikeouts was a bit puzzling, as Porcello's great raw stuff was expected to blow away the competition, especially in the low minors. With just 72 strikeouts on the season (.1366 K percentage), many felt that Porcello's curve would have benefited from remaining in the minors for at least another season. Detroit saw it differently, however, skipping the young pitcher all the way to the majors for his MLB debut in 2009.

Though he wasn't great his rookie year, Porcello's 2009 was about as good as anyone could reasonably have expected from a 20-year-old with one professional season under his belt. Though a few of his secondary indicators were less-than-ideal, especially his strikeout rate, Porcello's rookie year was a success. His 4.77 FIP was good for such a young pitcher and his 3.96 ERA should help his confidence. A .281 BABIP went a long way toward sub-4 ERA, but Porcello's high home run rate at 14.1 percent did much to erase the benefits of his lucky BABIP.

Still, the real story is not Porcello's FIP, ERA nor his BABIP, but rather, his strikeout and walk rates. While his 2.74 BB/9 is very good, Porcello disappointed in his strikeout rate for a second straight year, posting just a 4.69 K/9. With an 84.9 percent contact rate, Porcello's stuff was very hittable, giving major league hitters few problems making contact with his offerings. This is not all bad, however, as the added balls in play helped to keep his walk rate low. Still, strikeouts are a hitter's best friend, and any pitcher aside from Joel Pineiro and vintage Roy Halladay will struggle without them. His other plate discipline indicators were not all that encouraging, either. His 49.0 percent Zone% is below average, as is his 25.1 percent O-Swing%, meaning that he probably should have had a few more walks than he ultimately accumulated.

There was a good deal to like, however. For one, Porcello had a great groundball rate his first year, at 54.2 percent. His high GB% was very much the result of an approach centered around pitching low in the zone and using his two-seamer. That groundball rate will come in handy, as the fewer home runs Porcello gives up, the better his ERA will be.

When valuing Porcello, it is key to remember that he is still young and an incredible prospect with great projectability. However, he doesn't seem to offer a whole lot of value for 2010, given the assumption that he does not see a large upswing in his K rate. Until he offers a good deal of strikeouts—probably somewhere in the 7.0 to 7.5 K/9 range—he won't have much value to your team. Porcello's ERA may not crack the 4.00 barrier next year unless he ups that K rate, and Detroit seems bent on shedding salary next season, which may make wins hard to come by.

So, the strikeouts are in jeopardy next season, as are the wins. And, without Halladay-esque control, he won't post great ERAs or WHIPs, either. This gives Porcello a poor outlook for next season as a fantasy pitcher. If he doesn't make the requisite improvement in his K rate, he won't be good enough to make your rotation, except in very deep leagues. Should he maintain a strikeout rate below 6.00 K/9, he seems likely to post about a 4.3-4.5 ERA with a WHIP around 1.4. In other words, this is not a valuable player, yet.

However, it is important to remember that strikeouts can occasionally spike very quickly for young pitchers, seemingly without warning. Ben Sheets is a great example of a pitcher who couldn't translate stuff into strikeouts for his first few years in the bigs. Sheets posted just a 6.44 K/9 in his first 588 innings, before erupting in his age-26 season with a 10.03 K/9 rate. His first season was not all that unlike Porcello's, as Sheets only put up a 5.59 K/9 his rookie year. Yes, they're different pitchers, but stuff usually shines through in the end, and Porcello's got plenty of that. It would be nice to see a little more giddy-up on that fastball, as it was good, though not quite as good as advertised. Sitting at 91 mph last season, many expected it to be around 93 mph last season.

No, Porcello didn't shine his first season, but he had plenty to be excited about. Next year, he is worth a flier, but not much more. Early in the season, be sure to watch his fastball velocity and strikeout rates. If these two rise, a good season could be in store. If they don't change, he will probably post a season much like 2009. Because of his underwhelming stats, he should come on the cheap next year, so there's no need to rush to the counter for his services. Just stay vigilant and act quickly if he shows signs of breaking out, as he'll be much harder to pry away once a breakout becomes acknowledged.

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Player Profile: Ben Zobrist

Mike Silver — 2009-11-11T07:16:15+00:00

I will preface this by saying that Zobrist's incredible 2009 was bittersweet for me, as I passed the opportunity to pick him up in late April, when he was still splitting time 50-50 with Gabe Gross in right field. While it's a little unfair to root against a player for the sake of your fantasy team, every home run and every stolen base hurt just a little bit more while Stephen Drew was dragging down my overall line.

But what a year Zobrist had. And, though it was a little surprising to see him atop the leaderboards, it wasn't as unexpected as many people seem to think, as Zobrist showed flashes of his talent in recent years under the Tampa Bay banner. But his ascension to the top of the fantasy heap was quite the journey, beginning in 2004 as a sixth-round draft pick of the Houston Astros.

As a 23-year-old in 2004, Zobrist began his career at low-A Tri City as a slick hitting shortstop with an exceptional plate approach and batting eye. Though he was unable to deliver much in the power department, with just four home runs in 257 at-bats, his 43:31 BB:K ratio was nothing but superb. With a .339/.438/.463 line to boot, Zobrist was given a modest promotion to Single-A Lexington.

The next year, 2005, was a very similar season to 2004 for Zobrist. Again, he was able to put together an exemplary BB:K rate, at 84:52 in 478 plate appearances. However, the power was not there, as Zobrist put just five balls into the stands. His overall stats for the season were very good, however, as Zobrist put up a .304/.415/.413 line in 247 at-bats for A-ball Lexington, with a .333/.475/.496 share for High-A Salem.

With his trade to Tampa Bay as part of the Aubrey Huff deal, 2006 was a bit of a transition year for Zobrist. Beginning the year at Double-A for Houston, Zobrist registered a season much in line with his previous years, with exceptional plate discipline (55 walks against 46 strikeouts in 315 at-bats) but little power (three home runs). He struggled a bit over his 69 at-bats for triple-A Durham after moving over to the Tampa Bay organization, with just four extra-base hits. However, Tampa Bay called him up to the bigs. Unfortunately, Zobrist was completely lost in his first stint against major league pitching, posting a .222/.260/.311 line with just two home runs in 183 at-bats. Even Zobrist's patented plate discipline couldn't save him, as he posted the first sub-one BB:K rate of his career, at 10 walks against 26 strikeouts.

The beginning of 2007 saw Zobrist return to the comforts of Triple-A, where he put together a .279/.403/.455 line in 222 at-bats, with 43 walks against 38 strikeouts. In addition, Zobrist's power finally started to poke through a bit, as he hit seven longballs while down on the farm. As a result, Tampa thought it prudent to promote their shortstop to the Devil Rays. He flopped again, though, posting a .155/.184/.206 line in 97 at-bats to go along with just one home run and a 3:21 BB:K ratio. To add insult to injury... or more accurately, injury to insult, a strained oblique muscle in August effectively put an end to the prospect's season.

While 2007 was a bit of a lost season for the "old" shortstop, who turned 26 that year, 2008 saw Zobrist finally hit his stride as a batter. The big shortstop, standing 6-3, 200 pounds, played the majority of the season in the majors, where he showed some serious promise. After hitting four home runs in 71 at-bats for Durham to go along with his excellent plate discipline, Zobrist broke out in a big way with 12 homers in 198 at-bats in the American League. In addition, for the first time his batting eye carried over from the minors, as he posted a 25:37 BB:K rate. His .253/.339/.505 line was a great showing from the budding batter and Tampa Bay rewarded him with a spot on their Opening Day roster in 2009.

Carrying over from the previous season, 2009 was Ben Zobrist's big coming out party in every sense of the phrase. Though he split time in the outfield at the season's onset, he eventually beat out Gabe Gross for the starting job, aided by injuries in the infield that created more opportunities for him to prove his worth. When he was eventually handed the starting job, Zobrist did not look back, finishing the year with a .297/.405/.543 line to go along with 27 homers and a 91:104 BB:K ratio in 501 at-bats. Adding in 17 stolen bases for good measure, the shortstop-eligible Zobrist posted one of the best seasons in all of fantasy baseball in 2009.

Despite the excellent results, Zobrist still has some uncertainty about his ultimate upside as a player. Sure, he was superb in 2009 and in limited time in 2008. However, his iffy track record and lack of power at all levels before 2007 cast some doubt as to his actual baseline talent level.

To start with, Zobrist's 2009 has launched him into the echelon of one of the better hitters in the majors - and certainly of fantasy baseball given his multi-position eligibility. His plate discipline strides were very encouraging in 2009, as this was very important to his overall improvement at the plate. Players who see better pitches and offer at those said better pitches have a distinct advantage over their constituents at the plate. Zobrist was finally able to take advantage of this at the major league level, holding onto his 2008 gains made in O-Swing percentage (2007 O-Swing 26.7 percent v. 17.8 percent in '08 and 19.3 percent in '09). In addition, it is encouraging to see that he has not changed his approach against pitches inside the zone, as his ZSwing percentage has changed very little in the past few years. Oftentimes, batters will swing less overall in an attempt to swing at fewer poor pitches. However, in the process, they swing at fewer pitches inside the zone as well. Since Zobrist's adjustments came almost exclusively against pitches outside the zone, it points to the notion that he is getting better reads on the pitches he sees.

And perhaps more importantly, at this juncture we have every reason to believe that Zobrist's 2009 and 2008 power outputs are his new norm. Though he was unable to post any semblance of power in his first three years of professional ball, his last three seasons have gone a long way in dispelling any fears that owners should have. With a 17.5 HR/FB rate in 2009 and 17.4 in 2008, the power output seems real. In addition, Zobrist has shown that he can deliver from both sides of the plate. Though many switch-hitters have a significant strength at one side of the plate or the other, Zobrist seems to have just a slight power and batting eye edge while hitting from the right side. Since his power output was, for so long, his one absent tool, he seems good to go for the future.

Going along with his gains in power is the way pitchers approach Zobrist when they come against him at the plate. There is a definite negative correlation between a batter's isolated slugging percentage and the percentage of strikes they see. Seeing as Zobrist's Zone percentage fell 5 percent from 2008 to 2009, it seems that pitchers are beginning to respect Zobrist's power. This is a very encouraging development, especially when considering Zobrist's improvements in plate discipline, as he should be able to continue to stay patient and turn these additional balls into walks.

In all, Zobrist seems to be a very good bet for 2010, as his developing power, positional flexibility, and added speed make him one of the better players in fantasy baseball. Though it shouldn't surprise anyone that he will be a high draft pick in 2010, he will likely be worth the billing. Though his .330 BABIP may indicate a bit of regression in his batting average, he will still post excellent overall numbers - a .280-.285, high 20s home runs, a .900 OPS, and double digit steals sounds about right. All told, he should rank as one of the best second baseman or shortstops in the league - should he qualify at both in your leauge - or one of the league's better outfielders, though not quite elite. Draft Zobrist with confidence in 2010, knowing that you will get what you pay for.

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