The Hardball Times -- Mike Silver http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-24T08:09:15+00:00 One with a bullet: valuing the trendy starter pickups http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/one-with-a-bullet-valuing-the-trendy-sp-pickups/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/one-with-a-bullet-valuing-the-trendy-sp-pickups/#When:09:05:15 Kris Medlen; Ownership up 45.1 percent

It wasn’t long ago when Kris Medlen was paired with Tommy Hanson as the Braves’ one-two punch of the upcoming decade. But, 2009 seems so long ago now, as Medlen’s rise to stardom has been harassed by a multitude of injuries and disappointment.

2012 has been a revitalization as Medlen has put together 80 strong innings and four very strong starts in as many tries. His command has been good (50.9 Zone percentage), he's getting swings out of the zone (32.8 O-Swing percentage), and he is getting just enough swings and misses (81.9 Contact percentage).

Ben Duronio has a good writeup of Medlen’s chances at remaining in the Braves’ rotation over the rest of the season, and I’m inclined to agree that he should remain there.

If you have an opportunity to acquire him, I’d go ahead and make the move.

Projection: 3.450 ERA, 1.223 WHIP, 7.152 K/9, 12.12 W per 33 GS


Jaime Garcia; Ownership up 24.8 percent

If you’re asking around for opinions on Jaime Garcia, you’ll inevitably run into two competing camps: one who thinks he’s maddeningly inconsistent; the other who swears by his talent and patiently awaits that complete season a la 2010.

Unfortunately, I find myself firmly in that second category—which has cost me dearly on a few occasions (including a July 2011 trade where I was the benefactor of his 6.84 ERA month of August).

Nevertheless, the stats don’t lie—and Jaime looking like the pitcher everybody wants him to be. The groundballs are there (27.5 flyball percentage), the Contact percentage is outstanding (75.0 percent) and he is keeping the ball in the zone (49.3 Zone percentage, 34.2 O-Swing percentage).

I think you can get him on the cheap right now, and you should have no qualms about doing so.

Projection: 3.302 ERA, 1.249 WHIP, 8.103 K/9, 13.51 W per 33 GS


Matt Harvey; Ownership up 18.0 percent

Since his debut less than a month ago on July 26, Harvey has had no problem delivering on that considerable preseason promise. He’s throwing Ks, keeping the walks at a reasonable level, and doesn’t have any terrible problems with BABIP or HR/FB percentage.

You've got to love his 72.7 Contact percentage, which is fueling the excellent K-rate. On top of that, he looks like he can keep the walks under control with a 31.2 percent O-Swing percentage.

His minor league track record, his pedigree, and his stuff all suggested he’d be good and—now that he’s doing it on the big stage—I think its safe to say he’ll continue to do so.

Projection: 3.571 ERA, 1.304 WHIP, 9.487 K/9, 12.60 W per 33 GS


Hisashi Iwakuma; Ownership up 17.6 percent

Through some improbable combination of events, Iwakuma has been able to maintain a sub 4.00 ERA despite carrying 21.0 HR/FB and 3.68 BB/9 rates. Nevertheless, what's in the past is in the past, and he seems capable of maintaining reasonable rates from here on out.

His flyball percentage is excellent (27.8 percent) and I see his BB rate falling somewhat going forward—his 48.9 Zone percentage and 32.6 O-Swing percentage are more than good enough.

Iwakuma might be serviceable as a number five or number six starter, but doesn’t look to be worth much more than that.

Projection: 3.938 ERA, 1.358 WHIP, 7.533 K/9, 10.81 W per 33 GS


Patrick Corbin; Ownership up 11.2 percent

Corbin is doing his best to stick in the rotation this time around, posting three quality starts in his last four. The Diamondbacks want him to take a spot in their rotation for 2013, so an extended look should benefit both parties.

The debut of Tyler Skaggs crowds the rotation, but Corbin is slated to start Friday’s game, along with the 29th after that, so he looks OK.

When it comes to fantasy, however, I don’t think there’s much here for owners. It doesn’t look like he’ll be able to top 7.00 K/9 while his ERA and WHIP numbers should be below-average.

Projection: 4.004 ERA, 1.409 WHIP, 6.88 K/9, 11.31 W per 33 GS


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Mike Silver 2012-08-23T09:05:15+00:00 Hitters I’m buying low on http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/hitters-im-buying-low-on/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/hitters-im-buying-low-on/#When:09:03:15 Adam Lind, 1B

I’ve been burned by Adam Lind as many times as you have. Yet, I keep dipping into the well time after time. His exceptional 2009 campaign remains burned in my memory, though I can’t imagine him ever repeating that level of performance again.

Nevertheless, he can still be a competent fantasy first baseman, even if a bit underwhelming.

The .232 average is ugly, but that figure is also why he is so attainable, at only 46.6 percent owned in ESPN leagues. Things aren’t actually that grisly, however. His plate discipline characteristics indicate a 14.8 K percentage, not a 19.2 percent rate as is currently. In addition, his BABIP should recover to the .285-.290 range— a 30-point improvement. All told, he should be able to pace about 25 homers from here on out and should hit in the .265-.275 range the rest of the way.

The fact he’s still allowed to bat fifth is laughable, but that’s the Blue Jays’ problem, not yours.

No one ever accused a buy low player of being a stud, and Lind certainly isn’t one. What he is, however, is a useful corner infielder in 12-team leagues who should be slightly below league average. It shouldn’t cost much to get him—I would consider a No. 4 or No. 5 starting pitcher a fair offer. And if a guy like this can fill a hole, it can add a few points of value.

Projection, rest of the season (pro-rated to 155 GP): 75.5 R, 24.7 HR, 84.2 RBI, 1 SB, .272 AVG

FantasyPlayerRater.com Value: -0.735 points below average (12-team leagues)
Current pro-rated value (155 GP): 5.458 points below average

Alex Presley, OF

He’s fought through an ugly campaign thus far, batting just .231 with six home runs and a .633 OPS. As a result, his ownership has plummeted to under one percent in ESPN leagues.

Things should be trending up soon, and owners in need of outfield help should think about adding him. I see a batting average recovery of approximately 40-50 points the rest of the way, brought on by a reduction in K-rate of 6 percent and BABIP increase of about 50 points.

Further aiding the comeback is that, somehow, Alex Presley is still batting leadoff. I can’t overstate how valuable this lineup position is for a hitter like Presley, whose skills align him to either first or eighth/ninth.

Pick him up if he’s on the waiver wire or target him as a toss-in to complete a deal if he’s already owned.

Projection, rest of season (Pro-Rated to 155 GP): 94.8 R, 14.0 HR, 58.3 RBI, 22.9 SB, .2835 AVG

FantasyPlayerRater.com Value: 0.946 points above average (12-team leagues)
Current pro-rated value (155 GP): 4.416 points below average

[Note: This article was submitted prior to Starling Marte's recall, meaning Presley's chances to bounce back are hampered even further. Timing is everything.]

Adam Dunn

It’s hard to qualify the major league home run leader as a buy-low candidate, but to see exactly why I categorized Dunn as a buy-low, check out his value with a .210 average at the end of the blurb. He loses almost two points in value. Even with the homers, there are plenty of owners scared off by his .210 average and you can be there to capitalize.

An improvement in his ghastly O-Contact percentage should pull his strikeouts into the 29-30 percent range as opposed to 35, where he currently stands. Combined with an uptick in his .250 BABIP, you’re looking at a batter hitting .235-.245.

I think the rest of his line stays about where it is, though a slight drop in power is expected. I see vintage Adam Dunn the rest of the way.

Projection, rest of season (pro-rated to 155 GP): 93.2 R, 40.7 HR, 108.3 RBI, 1 SB, .2387 AVG
FantasyPlayerRater.com Value: 2.514 points above average

***Adam Dunn’s stats with .210 average: 89.7 R, 40.7 HR, 102.6 RBI, 1 SB, .210 AVG
***FantasyPlayerRater.com Value, with .210 average: 0.795 points above average

Pedro Alvarez, 3B

Alvarez is suffering in many of the same ways Adam Dunn is suffering: a strikeout rate way out of line with his contact rates and a BABIP that should be far higher.

Sure, Alvarez is no wizard in concerns to contact, but he isn’t this bad. While he did strike out at over a 30 percent clip last season, he has improved in every meaningful indicator that determines strikeout rates: his O-Contact is up, his Z-Contact is up, and he’s swinging more. My regression equations suggest a batter more in line with a 25 percent strikeout rate.

In addition, he should be capable of improving his BABIP up into the .305-.310 range. This, combined with an improvement in his strikeout rate should haul his batting average up into the high .270s, an increase of almost 50 points.

With fewer strikeouts (more balls in play) comes more home runs. With more home runs and average come more runs and RBI. The only thing holding him back is the batting order, where he’s hitting sixth.

For those in need of third base help, Alvarez is a great target. Being owned in just 84 percent of leagues means he’s readily attainable, though he will cost you a decent player. I’d say that a number three or good number four starting pitcher should be a good opening offer, and don’t be afraid to give up more.

Projection rest of season (pro-rated to 155 GP): 78.9 R, 31.5 HR, 78.2 RBI, 1 SB, .2772 AVG

FantasyPlayerRater.com Value: 1.552 points above average (12-team leagues)
Current pro-rated value: 1.553 points above average

J.D. Martinez, OF

Early in the year, a lot of owners pegged J.D. Martinez as a breakout candidate after flashing decent power and average in 2011. Four months later and those claims seem amiss—but there is hope for Martinez yet.

I expect his O-Swing and Z-Swing rates to climb a bit back into the upper 20s and upper 60s, respectively, and a stabilization of his contact rates. With an improvement in his BABIP to about the .320 range, you’re talking about a hitter who can eclipse the .270 mark.

Don’t give up much for Martinez, but with a 16 percent ownership rate, you shouldn’t have to. He can fill a fifth outfielder or utility role for you.

Projection, rest of season (pro-rated to 155 GP): 71.3 R, 19.4 HR, 75.8 RBI, 1 SB, .2761 AVG

FantasyPlayerRater.com Value: -1.259 points below average
Current pro-rated value (155 GP): 3.592 points below average

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Mike Silver 2012-07-26T09:03:15+00:00 Sell high candidates: starting pitchers http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/sell-high-candidates-starting-pitchers/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/sell-high-candidates-starting-pitchers/#When:09:06:15 Sell high candidates: starting pitchers

Chris Sale

Owner of a 2.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, Chris Sale has been one of the league’s most pleasant surprises this year. Night after night, Sale gives owners quality production, ranking among the top five at his position all season long.

Unfortunately, there’s only so much longer this can continue. The easy money is on his BABIP to regress closer to .300 (I have his BABIP at .3052 going forward, ZIPS has .303) while the bandbox in Chicago pushes his HR/FB back to the 9.0 to 9.5 percent range.

His exceptional peripherals should survive the season intact: going forward I see an 8.144 K/9 and 2.692 BB/9 based on his plate discipline indicators. However, this alone won’t sustain his place among the top five, as he is closer to a top 25 hurler the rest of the way.

If you’re weighing the option of trading Sale, no doubt many potential trade partners will point to the low BABIP (.264) as pretext to decline a trade. Counter by pointing to his xFIP of 3.19 which, though not a stellar 2.11, should ease their nerves on Sale's downside. However, I think his ERA will be in the mid-3s from here on out.

Projection: 3.664 ERA, 1.296 WHIP, 8.144 K/9, 2.692 BB/9, 12.553 Wins/32 GS.
FantasyPlayerRater.com Value: 0.360 points above average (10-team leagues)

Jered Weaver

Another hurler who I think is likely to see a decline in all meaningful fantasy statistics, Jered Weaver should still be able to rake in a considerable haul. Over the last three seasons, Weaver has established himself among the top starters in fantasy, though it can be argued whether he really belongs there. Coming off his stellar 2010 season when he registered in excess of 9.0 K/9, I would say he belonged in such a discussion. Since then, however, his K-rate has dropped to the mid-sevens and below, removing him from consideration of such accolades. Worse, his current K/9 of 6.68 is thoroughly mediocre.

Perhaps more troubling is his fading comprehension of the strike zone, as his Zone percentage has dropped 1.5 percent. Further complicating matters is his falling O-Swing percentage, down 1.8 percent from last season. Altogether, his plate discipline peripherals point to a walk rate of 3.216 BB/9, not his current level of 2.00 BB/9. For other pitchers, this number could suffice, but for a hurler with a lower K-rate this cannot continue without consequence.

Nevertheless, we shouldn’t write off Weaver so fast. He has somewhat of a Matt Cain quality to him (sustained low BABIP and HR/FB) that makes him difficult to project in many respects. However, most owners I've talked to prefer to own players who can be projected with greater certainty.

That said, I think he can continue his HR/FB magic—I expect an 8.3 HR/FB percentage going forward. However, his BABIP is anyones guess. I estimate a .2911 going forward while ZIPS has a .288. The problem with BABIP projections is that they tend to come with a good amount of volatility. And, in Weaver's case, a considerable amount of his value hinges here. As the projection currently stands, a .2911 BABIP would yield a 3.798 ERA and 1.365 WHIP. However, a .273 BABIP (his career mark) yields a 3.469 ERA and 1.284 WHIP. In essence, this one figure represents the line between fringe #6 hurler and rotation stalwart.

Nevertheless, no matter which way you slice it, Jered Weaver is in for a big turnaround in the wrong direction. Do the decent thing and trade him away to an owner who doesn’t see it coming and reap the rewards of a shrewd, timely deal. And don’t be afraid to ask for a lot—he’s a guy with a long history of results and the name to go with it. He should fetch you an excellent player.

Projection: 3.798 ERA, 1.365 WHIP, 6.617 K/9, 3.188 BB/9, 12.2 Wins/32 GS
FantasyPlayerRater.com value: -1.802 points below average (10-team leagues)

Jordan Zimmermann

I can’t really understand why, but in the last 12-15 months, the fantasy baseball realm has fallen head over heels in love with this guy. Sure, he showed some flashes in 2009 before being struck down for TJ surgery the next season, but since then, his K/9 rate has fallen off the Earth and taken much of his value with it.

So here Zimmermann stands with a 2.48 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 6.19 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9. I like the Ks to improve slightly (to 6.414 K/9) and, to my surprise, I like his already stellar BB/9 to improve as well (to 1.569 BB/9). However, the sum of the parts just doesn’t add up to a 2.48 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, and his value will come crashing down as those figures normalize.

Projection: 3.797 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, 6.414 K/9, 1.569 BB/9, and 11.923 Wins/32 GS.
FantasyPlayerRater.com value: -1.184 points below average

Johnny Cueto

I have a very hard time looking at Johnny Cueto without seeing a big-time regression. Perhaps more than anyone else on this list, his fantastic ERA (2.28) and WHIP (1.16) is very much a house of cards.

Pitching in the Cincinnati bandbox, his 4.5 HR/FB percentage is very, very unlikely to continue—reflected in his projection of 9.9 percent going forward. His BABIP will probably stay in about the same area (I’ve got him projected at a .2999 BABIP), though a small drop such as 5 points can still have a noticeable affect on his overall line (see: Jered Weaver, but not so drastic).

What really troubles me is what is coming for his K/9 and BB/9 rates. I expect his K/9 to drop by about a full strikeout per nine (6.70 down to 5.709) and his BB/9 to rise over half a walk (2.21 BB/9 to 2.840 BB/9).

Put that all together and Cueto looks practically un-ownable. Deal him as soon as you can, but don’t settle for peanuts. He should still be able to net you a pretty good player.

Projection: 4.065 ERA, 1.411 WHIP, 5.709 K/9, 2.840 BB/9, and 12.7 Wins/32 GS.
FantasyPlayerRater.com Value: -3.232 points below average (10-team leagues)

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Mike Silver 2012-07-19T09:06:15+00:00 Yes, you can have some control in the wins category http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/yes-you-can-have-some-control-in-the-wins-category/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/yes-you-can-have-some-control-in-the-wins-category/#When:12:52:15
They’re erratic, they’re wildly unpredictable, and they're an unavoidable part of fantasy life.

They're also a fantasy strategist's greatest opportunity.

In an age where we espouse the virtue of milking every bit of value from every corner and under every unturned stone, wins remains one of the least explored categories—one still open to discovery and exploitation.

And where there’s opportunity, you can bet that smart, championship-caliber owners will take advantage. And there’s an opportunity here, readers. Where lesser owners shy away from the category, ignoring the wins column as if it were called “runs,” you can take advantage.

First, the hard part: How do you weave through the inconsistency and figure out how many wins my pitcher will rack up this year? As a statistic that is fraught with unpredictability, this must be easier said than done, right?

Wrong!

Luckily for us, FantasyPlayerRater.com has published a wins formula (follow this link, first article down) that can help you with that first step. It calculates starting pitcher wins per game started, taking into account a pitcher’s ERA, run support, bullpen strength and a couple of other variables.

ERA, obviously, is the most important factor, followed by run support. Bullpen strength, AL v. NL, and innings pitched per games started are also important, but those first two dominate the landscape.

(A side note: I hope by now that THT, Baseball Prospectus, and Fangraphs have fully debunked any of those “this guy gets more run support than this guy in the same rotation because…” theories. To those who still believe: Run support has nothing to do with who’s on the mound. You can estimate run support by dividing the number of runs scored in a season (or expected runs scored) by 162 games.)

I would like to caution anyone against understating the value of run support—or team quality in general. I’ve come across many who argue that wins are so volatile that they should be ignored altogether. I would caution against that sentiment. So, just how important is team strength when you’re determining expected wins?

In a one word: very. In two words: very, very. Get the picture? It’s extraordinarily important. In fact, a huge amount of a pitcher’s value hinges on this statistic.

To illustrate the point, let’s take Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia 2011 season and see how many games he would have won had he been on each team in the majors:

{exp:list_maker}Sabathia’s profile in 2011: 3.00 ERA, 7.192 IP/GS, American League pitcher.
Yankees' average run support per game: 5.352 (867 runs / 162 games)
Yankees' bullpen ERA: 3.12
{/exp:list_maker}
The results, with Sabathia holding constant at a 3.00 ERA:

image

By the formula, Sabathia was expected to lock down just shy of 20 wins. This is encouraging: He won 19, so we’re within one win of the actual result.

With the results in hand, I would like to draw the reader’s attention to three main pieces.

First, column four illustrates the expected number of wins for Sabathia on each of the 30 teams.

Building on that, column two reports how many points above or below average that win total is according to FantasyPlayerRater.com’s roto-points calculator. Said another way, this is the expected affect C.C. Sabathia will have on your final standings in the category. So, if you were at six or seven points at the end of the year in wins (the middle of the pack in a 12-team league), adding Sabathia would have brought you up to 8.5-9.5 points in wins. As fantasy owners can tell, that 2.5 points is a huge margin and can spell victory, defeat, or standings position in any given season.

The third column depicts how many points a team would gain/lose in the standings if Sabathia switched teams from the Yankees to a new home.

Looking down the list, we can see that the best team for wins was, unsurprisingly, the Yankees, followed closely by the Red Sox. The worst team for wins was the Astros, followed closely by the Mariners. On either of these two teams, Sabathia would have lost more than six wins—a staggering sum that would have accounted for a loss of more than 2.5 points in 12-team leagues, according to FantasyPlayerRater.com’s ratings.

That's a huge number. Is anyone out there worried that they may have fallen short of a championship because they chose Seattle’s Felix Hernandez and the pathetic Mariners offense over the vaunted Yankees? I know I would be. In my main league last season, this exact scenario played out: The first-place team finished with 90 points and owned Sabathia, while the second place team finished with 88 points while owning Felix Hernandez. Could a simple trade have brought victory to the second place team? It’s a frightening thought.

But now we know! And now we can take advantage of this easily exploitable category and start winning championships. Now that the information is out there, go hit the free agent and trade market and bring home some heists! With half a season left, what are you waiting for?

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Mike Silver 2012-06-28T12:52:15+00:00 The real deal? ... R.A. Dickey http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-real-deal-...-r.a.-dickey/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-real-deal-...-r.a.-dickey/#When:09:19:15 R.A. Dickey:

Call me a cynic, but I’ve never been one to fully trust the capriciousness of a knuckleball. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a very effective pitch—as evidenced by the numerous careers it has spawned. But, as a Boston Red Sox fan, I’ve had my frame of reference skewed by witnessing the alternating brilliance and ineptness throughout Tim Wakefield’s career.

As such, its difficult for me to see R.A. Dickey in a different light—even though he’s having a third superb season in a row. To me, the vagaries of the knuckleball make him difficult to trust. Just ask Wakefield; one day the ball is dancing past bats, the next day it’s a batting practice meatball. Worse yet, the pattern changes inning to inning on occasion, and sometimes pitch to pitch. For as much as the curveball or slider relies on “feel”, the knuckleball is the ultimate “feel” pitch. Though some days you might have it and some you don’t, your only option is to battle through and trust your “feel.” The guy who can stop overthinking and “let ‘er rip” is oftentimes the best at his craft.

For the sake of argument, however, I’ll forget for a second that Dickey is a knuckleballer. He’s got an excellent groundball rate, he’s got no BABIP or HR/FB problems, and, perhaps counterintuitive for a knuckleballer, he has no problem throwing strikes.

Standing alone, those qualities are enough to place just about any MLB pitcher in the above average range. Last year, that sentence would have summed up R.A. Dickey quite nicely. His expected line reflected that, standing at a serviceable 4.006 ERA with a 5.763 K/9 and 2.216 BB/9.

Unfortunately, that R.A. Dickey couldn’t hack it in fantasy with such a poor strikeout rate. An inflated 3.23 ERA certainly got him on the majority of rosters, but that kind of production couldn’t be expected year-in and year-out without more whiffs. The new R.A. Dickey seems to have solved that problem, however, jacking up the K-rate while turning into one of the most valuable pitchers in the league.

The changes have been staggering: a 7.4 percent increase in O-Swing rate, accompanied by a 6.6 percent drop in O-Contact and 9.1 percent decline in Z-Contact.
It is in these indicators that we usually see the root causes of a breakout, often stemming from an altered approach.

Improvements in O-Swing are usually accompanied by declines in Zone percentage. This shouldn’t be too surprising: when batters show a tendency to chase, pitchers will throw out of the zone more. However, that steep drop in Zone percentage hasn’t happened – Dickey’s Zone percentage has only fallen 1.6 percent this season and only 0.5 percent from his career levels. The oft-used approach of throwing out of the zone and chasing does not seem to apply here.

Further, it is not as though Dickey has added a slider or curve that induces large O-Swing rates. Working with much the same repertoire as years past suggests that an overhaul in pitching philosophy has not occurred.

In fact, from a statistical standpoint, his approach is largely indistinguishable from 2011.

Additionally, because he is a knuckleballer, I have doubts that there’s much of a chance that Dickey could change his approach in ways that wouldn't get picked up in current statistical measurements. Unlike a three-pitch pitcher who can mix locations or add deception via pitch selection, a knuckleballer doesn’t have that same luxury.

By most all accounts, the knuckleball is too inaccurate for the pitcher to confidently place in the strike zone, so location selectivity is out (other than general in-out, up-down placement). Pitch selection could be an option, but evidence points to Dickey being less diverse in his pitch selection than in past years—he’s reduced the use of his #2 pitch, the fastball, to 15.8 percent this season (down from 23.3 percent in 2011). Had the use of his fastball risen compared to previous years, I would concede that this was a possibility, though even then I would have had my doubts.

As for the question of how a knuckleballer may use his additional offerings, Wakefield used to throw a fastball (and a curve now and again), though it was usually reserved for a count where there was a clear red light (3-0, no one on), or as a trick pitch to sneak in a strike, again in low leverage situations. Though Dickey does have 10 mph on Wakefield on the “heater”, I can’t imagine (even in the most aggressive of forecasts) that an improved approach with the fastball would be all that different to the point where it would bring his K-rate up by anything more than 0.5-1 K/9, let alone almost 4 K/9. (Simple math: Dickey throws 16 fastballs per game. Assuming perhaps half of these are strategically placed to take advantage of hitters’ timing or count. Half of these are thrown in two-strike counts. With four fastballs thrown in two-strike counts, a 75 percent contact rate yields one K/9. No numbers to back these up, just a back-of-the-envelope/”finger in the air” type of assumption).

Dickey’s knuckleball itself is another place to look. However, turning over that rock doesn’t yield much either. Its movement profile doesn’t seem to have changed from 2011—and movement deltas within an inch in either direction can often be attributed to statistical variance. With the same movement profile, its largely the same pitch.

So, we’re back where we started: statistically speaking, 2012 R.A. Dickey is virtually indistinguishable from his 2011 self. There is nothing in his profile that we can attribute to his sudden rise in O-Swing percentage and rapid drop in Z-Contact percentage, those being the two greatest determinants of his strikeout rate.

One thing that may yield clues, however, is how my ERA and K models interpreted Dickey’s performance in 2011. His 2011 K and BB results, if you can recall, were very similar to his expected values based on his plate discipline indicators (actual 2011 K/9: 5.78, expected 2011 K/9: 5.763; actual 2011 BB/9: 2.33, expected 2011 BB/9: 2.216).

In my research, I have found that pitchers who exceed their previous year’s expected K/9 rate have a statistically significant tendency to exceed their expected K/9 rate in succeeding years. In short, if you outperformed you K/9 last year, you're more likely to do it again this year.

This variable was introduced to try to account for some of the “X” factor in statistical modeling that is a pitcher's approach. In economic modeling, these kinds of variables are used to pick up on that which we cannot directly measure. In baseball, that “X” factor would attempt to account for a pitcher who saves a little extra velocity for two-strike counts, or a batter who chokes up to avoid striking out. In short, since we can’t record this variable directly, we try to pick up on glimpses of it from the residual inaccuracies in our model.

For Dickey, since he didn’t surpass his previous year’s rates, you wouldn’t expect him to surpass this year’s either. However, Dickey’s 2012 K/9 rate of 9.36 is far higher than his expected 8.35.

Why is this significant?

From his earlier seasons, we would have expected Dickey to have a low discrepancy between these two figures. Since Dickey is outperforming his K/9 rate by about a strikeout per nine, we now have some evidence to posit that there is probably something going on behind the numbers contributing to Dickey’s performance.

Then again, the contrarian would point out that this could all be statistical variance—a position that I would not argue against the possibility of. Either way, as we have used up so many of our tools and are still grasping at straws, you get to the point where you have to put forth some hypothesis to chip away at the question, especially when conclusive data you need to verify it doesn’t exist.

So, after all this, what is the answer?

It hurts my ego to say this, but on this one fellas, I’m stumped. There’s no clear cut answer and there isn’t much out there in the public realm that can provide a solution.

Since I would like to report something, I will say that I think this is part statistical anomaly, part unexplained uptick in performance.

Sorry readers. I hate giving answers like this. I'd rather be bold and beautiful, instead of giving a middle-of-the-road explanation that tends to be boring.

Either way, my expectation is that he keeps the K/9 rate up in the 7.5-8.5 range, posts a dandy ERA, and makes his owners very happy. You probably have a #2 starting pitcher on your hands whom I wouldn’t let him go just because his name is “R.A. Dickey.”

3.333 ERA, 1.187 WHIP, 176.567 K, 12.70 W, 198.41 IP—8.174 K/9, 1.85 BB/9

Skinny: 3.233 points above average at FantasyPlayerRater.com’s roto-points calculator


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Mike Silver 2012-06-21T09:19:15+00:00 How real is…? Breakout stars of 2012: hitters http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/how-real-is...-breakout-stars-of-2012-hitters/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/how-real-is...-breakout-stars-of-2012-hitters/#When:09:56:15 Jason Kipnis, 2B:

The toast of fantasy owners everywhere, Jason Kipnis is arguably the biggest breakout star this season. With him hitting for more value than 90 percent-plus of the league's outfielders, while playing among the scarcity of second base, you can make the case that Kipnis has been the most valuable player in fantasy this season.

He’s always had the power and he’s always had the speed—but he's only now had the big league opportunity. I expect the runs, RBIs and steals to slow down a bit from here on out, but it doesn’t matter—he’s a stud and in the discussion as the best second baseman in the major leagues.

Ask yourself: who would you rather have? Other than Robinson Cano, and Ian Kinsler... who would you rather have? Pedroia? Uggla? I’m taking Kipnis. If you have one of Cano or Kinsler, I’d think long and hard about a package deal where I pick up Kipnis and an above average player somewhere else. If I had Dustin Pedroia—definitely Dan Uggla—I might offer him straight up.

There’s great value coming the rest of the way, among the best at the position. Scaled to 150 games played: 86.7 R, 25.0 HR, 96.4 RBI, 23 SB, .2808 AVG and 4.712 points above average.

Skinny: 4.712 points above average, Top three second baseman

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B:

I feel bad about writing off Encarnacion earlier this year. I really do. To his credit, before this season, he has flashed the potential to be a league average third baseman if he could ever put health and skill together at the same time.

But this?

Taking a close look, it doesn't seem all that ridiculous. Other than the power spike (and a few extra steals), he hasn’t done anything that’s that far outside his reach. The usual suspects, BABIP and K-rate, don’t yield any red flags, and everything else is seems reasonable.

But when a home run spike is at the heart of a breakout, you have to approach it with caution.

With power hitting, it's always difficult to say what is real and what is fake. There’s a reason why scouts say it is the hardest tool to project. Without an established record of power hitting, it's almost impossible to say without watching the games (unfortunately, I live outside the Toronto market). And, even then, it's still very uncertain one way or the other. Nevertheless, a sharp increase in fly balls and a decrease in Z-Contact percentage may indicate that there is some intent behind this pattern—perhaps yielding some contact for more power.

For the near future, I would encourage taking the cautiously-optimistic approach. Everything hinges on the power right now and there’s a considerable amount of risk involved in depending on a player like this. At the very least, he’s got a very good flyball rate, but without the power, he’s not much different than the old Edwin Encarnacion—and no one seemed to want any part of him.

If he can stay healthy, I think he’s got a great chance to continue being a big surprise at the hot corner. I see a drop coming in each category, but I do think he holds on to some of his gains in the power department. All in all, he’ll be a value contributor and above average third baseman the rest of the way.

Projected to 150 games played: 82.7 R, 30.5 HR, 93.9 RBI, 11 SB, .2570 AVG, and 2.586 points above average. Enjoy!

Skinny: 2.586 points above average; Top 5-10 fantasy third baseman

Josh Reddick, OF:

Unfortunately for the Boston Red Sox, Reddick’s breakout came one year too late. They could really use his help in the outfield.

But here he is... and what an interesting player he has become. Long touted as a moderate power-speed combo, he has never been able to put it together at the big league level. After two disappointing big league stints in 2009 and 2010, though, he did show signs of improvement during 87 games in 2011.

Fortunately for Reddick, those improvements have carried over to this season—and then some. His power numbers are way up, he’s showing off his speed, and he’s being rewarded with full-time at-bats.

Like Encarnacion, Reddick’s value is at the mercy of that ever-enigmatic power spike. But, also like Encarnacion, he’s bought himself some leeway with an above average flyball rate.

Overall, I like what I see in Reddick: he puts the ball in the air, he's got reasonably good contact skills, and he likes to hack (regular readers know full well of my affinity for hacking fantasy players). Batting in Oakland won’t do him any favors, but there’s a lot of potential here.

Projected to 150 games played: 82.6 R, 32.7 HR, 103.1 RBI, 12 SB, .2791 AVG, and 4.152 points above average. Am I surprised the power projections are this high? Yes. But hey, that’s what the model says and I won’t lie to you about that. I think he’s a stud in the making—and its not too late to pick him up via trade for a reasonable price.

Skinny: 4.152 points above average; Top 15 fantasy outfielder

Mike Trout, OF:

After stumbling in a brief trial last season, the All-Everything prospect is lighting the world on fire through 41 games.

It doesn’t take a lot to see that he’s going to slow down soon: his frenetic .405 BABIP is far beyond any sustainable limit and there’s the problem with the… wait a second, that’s about it. Everything else seems, well, reasonable. Nothing else about him hints at a fluke.

The power numbers aren’t out of line with his career norms, and he's always been lauded for his speed. He’s also hitting at the top of the order—perfect for a volume guy like Trout, who contributes in all counting categories.

In short, I love what I’m seeing out of Trout: great speed, decent power, and hitting at the top of the order. I think its fair to say he’s going to be a star for the remainder of the year, even if his BABIP takes a big hit. He’s still new enough where you may be able to dangle an established player and steal him away from an unsuspecting owner.

Prorated to 150 GP: 109.5 R, 23.0 HR, 73.1 RBI, 48.3 SB, .3008 AVG, and 7.200 points above average

The numbers are eye-popping, but when you add up all the pieces—power, speed, contact ability, plenty of plate appearances—you have the consummate fantasy outfielder. Congratulations, Mike Trout owners: you’ve just inherited a bona fide No. 1 outfielder.

Skinny: 7.200 points above average; Top five fantasy outfielder


Bryce Harper, OF

The wunderkind, Mr. Everything, Savior of Washington—whatever you want to call him, that’s what he is.

Like the others on this list, Harper has made his mark in a big way early on and has fantasy owners wowed with his exceptional talent and blue-chip pedigree.

Speaking frankly, I didn’t expect Harper to perform this well so soon upon his promotion to the bigs. In fact, I was almost sure Harper would fall flat on his face and get sent back to Triple-A within a month. After all, he hit just four home runs in his 229 plate appearances above Single-A. It just didn’t seem as though major league success was in the cards for Harper in 2012.

But, oh how wrong I was. 40 games later, Harper is beating back all doubters—forcing each one of us to admit that he's a major league-ready hitter.

As for what he can do from here on out, I think he settles in as an above-average fantasy outfielder, but nothing exceptional. He’ll still showcase the power and speed he’s shown thus far, but his K-rate is going to rise and bring down his batting average to the low .270s.

If you can get value for him via trade, it's the perfect time to deal him away in yearly leagues. He’s got all the earmarks of one of those “overachieving blue-chipper for struggling veteran” trade heists and I think the prudent owner will act accordingly.

Prorated to 150 GP: 97.7 R, 24.5 HR, 76.7 RBI, 14 SB, .2731 AVG, and 2.346 points above average

Skinny: 2.346 points above average; Top 25 fantasy outfielder

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Mike Silver 2012-06-15T09:56:15+00:00 Three climbing up the ownership ladder http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/climbing-the-ownership-ladder/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/climbing-the-ownership-ladder/#When:05:44:15 Dayan Viciedo

What a difference a year makes!

After failing just about everyone’s expectations in 2011 (one home run in 113 plate appearances), Viciedo has finally made good on his power potential, clubbing 11 homers in 166 plate appearances. With a .280 average to boot, Viciedo has rocketed up the ownership list and is now approaching 100 percent ownership.

While his play to date certainly merits the faith owners are giving him, he’s outstripping his abilities and his opportunity to produce.

The positives for Viciedo are his propensity for hacking (which offsets his poor contact abilities) and his plus power. The negatives are his sky-high groundball rate, his average BABIP, and his batting seventh in the White Sox order.

Those three negatives will make it very difficult for Viciedo to become a fantasy star. Since he rarely steals, he needs to make up a lot of ground in the remaining counting stats and batting average. The low BABIP will depress his batting average and batting seventh will prevent him from piling up runs and RBIs.

While he’s certainly got a good set of skills, he’s unlikely to ever become a significant asset as a fantasy outfielder. I’ve got him putting up a 74-24-81-1-.267 line over 162 games in the No. 7 hole, which places him at an underwhelming 0.528 points below average in 12-team leagues at FantasyPlayerRater.com. Moving up the order would help things, but he’s got an uphill battle to get anywhere past A.J. Pierzynski in the six-hole.

If someone in your league is willing to give you a good return on him, deal him while his star is on the rise.


Chris Davis

For the first time since 2008, Chris Davis is a useful fantasy player. Sitting pretty with a .315 average and nine home runs in 174 plate appearances, Davis is starting to reclaim the confidence owners once had in him.

Whether it can continue is a whole other story—but he is showing some signs of a sustainable improvement. If he can continue along at a .340 BABIP and sustain his improved Z-Contact rate, he will continue his resurgent season. Davis’ major potholes from recent seasons have been a revolving door of low BABIPs, low homer-per-fly ball rates, and high strikeout rates. This season, he has brought the first two under control, while an improved Z-Contact rate has been at the heart of a falling K-rate.

Applying estimates of a .340 BABIP, an 18.0 percent HR/FB rate, and 84.0 percent Z-Contact rate, Davis could deliver a very useful fantasy season. Projecting him from the seven-hole, Davis could be expected to deliver a 77-26-77-2-.2856 line over a full season. And no, that batting average is no mistake.

At FantasyPlayerRater.com, that line is good for 0.126 points below average at first base in 12-team leagues and 1.055 points above average at third base.

If you can acquire him, do it. He still carries some risk, but he’s got a lot of upside for what he’ll cost.


Homer Bailey

After years of false starts and flashes followed by failures, Homer Bailey is again trying to convince fantasy owners that he’s worth rostering. With a 3.73 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, owners are looking Bailey’s way again.

But is he worth it?

I wouldn’t say so. While he’s showing some slight improvements in most of his plate discipline indicators, they are minimal at best and don’t amount to much.

Unfortunately, this year looks to be similar to others in the past, albeit he should be ownable this season as a fringe rosterable pitcher. I see a 3.99 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 152.8 K (7.098 K/9), and 12.3 wins in 193.77 IP. That’s good enough for 0.99 points below average in 12-team leagues according to FantasyPlayerRater.com.

If you’re in dire need of pitching help, feel free to add Bailey. Otherwise, you can probably do better.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Mike Silver 2012-05-31T05:44:15+00:00 Ranking the new closers http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/ranking-the-new-closers/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/ranking-the-new-closers/#When:09:19:15
Here’s my rankings of the new guys who have stepped into the role.

1) Kenley Jansen, LAD

Earlier in the season I mentioned that I thought Kenley Jansen would outperform half the league’s closers, even if he never claimed the full-time job.

Now that he has the job, I think its fair to say he’s the No. 2 closer in fantasy from here on out. Craig Kimbrel is the only guy in the league who can challenge him, and it's mostly a toss-up between the two.

Don’t let the walks scare you, Jansen is a special pitcher. He racks up the Ks like few others, he will post elite ERAs, and now he has the closer’s spot. The sky is the limit.

I’ve got him at a 2.248 ERA, 1.108 WHIP, 102.99 K (14.26 K/9), and 37 saves over 65 inningbs. At 3.05 points above average, he and Kimbrel are in a league of their own.

Closer comparable: Craig Kimbrel, ATL—3.329 points above average

2) David Robertson, NYY

Robertson took over the closer’s role last Thursday after Mariano Rivera tore his ACL fielding fly balls at Kaufman Stadium. Even for me, a lifelong Red Sox fan, this injury was difficult to take. Few in the game have been so good for so long, and carry themselves in such respectable fashion. Baseball would lose something if one of its all-time greats went out like this. Whatever happens, it has been a privilege to watch him pitch all these years.

On to Robertson.

If you were a Rivera owner and managed to snatch up Robertson, congratulations! Your team may have just gotten better! Robertson has the upside to challenge Kimbrel and Jansen as the two most valuable closers. Robertson is one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball and closers can contribute a huge amount of value with those extra Ks. And with extra Ks comes a better ERA and WHIP, not to mention a better save conversion rate.

I feel confident penciling him in for a 2.664 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 84.124 K (11.648 K/9), and 37 saves over 65 innings. Pencil in 3.5 wins and all of a sudden he’s a 2.01 point reliever in 12-team leagues. That’s elite!

This guy is a bona fide top five closer. I’ve got him as No. 3 in fantasy the rest of the way—an elite reliever who falls just a bit below the super-elite of Kimbrel and Jansen. I’d give up quite a lot to get him and would feel comfortable offering an established, top-15 closer in a trade if I thought it could net me Robertson. He and Jansen are the perfect players to target in trades. They have immediate value, owners might not know what they have, and there are plenty of ways to get creative and work them into multi-player deals.

Closer comparable: Jonathan Papelbon—1.987 points above average


3) Chris Sale, CHW

Another stud who has claimed the role in the last week, Sale is a game-changer for those owners lucky enough to have him.

That said, there is still debate as to whether the job is actually his. Though the White Sox publicly stated he will return to closing, he pitched in the eighth inning Tuesday night and is scheduled for an MRI today (Thursday).

Assuming that he does, in fact, have the role—and if that elbow is healthy—he’s a top 10 closer with upside in the top five. I’ll forecast a 2.637 ERA, 1.142 WHIP, 76.701 K (10.303 K/9), 35 saves and 1.363 points over 65 IP.

Closer comparable: Jonathan Papelbon—1.985 points above average


4) Steve Cishek, MIA

The Marlins want Heath Bell to reclaim the role, so you have to assume he’ll get another opportunity and that Cishek is a temp and nothing more. This could also be a committee, with Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb in the mix, but Cishek seems to be the leader. He was loosening in the ninth on Monday with a four-run lead and Webb threw in the eighth of a tie game on Tuesday, so indications are he's first in line.

Assuming he does get the job, he has the makings of a solid-above average closer. He gets a nice amount of Ks, has a great ground ball rates, and has better command than his walk numbers suggest.

If he were to hold onto the role over a full season, I’d see him posting a 2.848 ERA, 1.158 WHIP, 63.028 K (8.727 K/9), and 0.695 points above average.

He’s a good player, but long-term, the organization will likely push him out of the role. Every save counts, though, and a minimal investment in the short term can do some good for your saves totals. Don't shoot for him thinking he's anything more than a short-term option and enjoy it while it lasts.

Closer comparable: J.J. Putz—0.698 points above average


5) Rafael Dolis, CHC

Now that Carlos Marmol’s reign of terror has ended, management has called upon Dolis to finish games for the Cubbies.

Though owners should always be in pursuit of saves, don’t feel obligated to rush to the wire to grab Dolis. He’ll be valuable because of the saves, but all in all, there isn’t much of a pitcher here. He doesn’t tally enough Ks, he doesn’t hit the zone with regularity and, all-in-all, he’s thoroughly mediocre—to the point where I don’t think he’ll last long in the role.

I don’t see much here: 3.688 ERA, 1.369 WHIP, 32 SV, 52.839 K (7.316 K/9), and —1.420 points below average.

Closer comparable: Chris Perez, —1.348 points below average


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Mike Silver 2012-05-10T09:19:15+00:00 The real deal? Unheralded hot starts http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-real-deal-unheralded-hot-starts/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-real-deal-unheralded-hot-starts/#When:09:13:15
Edwin Jackson, Washington Nationals:

I really like what I’m seeing out of Jackson. Groundballs are up, O-Swing is up, contact percentages are way, way down, and he’s getting ahead in the count. Right now, he’s throwing like the perfect pitcher. To date, I’ve got his regressed line at a 2.105 ERA, 1.011 WHIP, and 10.978 K/9. Extrapolate that out through 200+ IP and you’re looking at a mind-boggling 10.93-point player in 12-team leagues—tops in fantasy.

Unfortunately, that won’t continue and if you can find someone to buy in, I’d take it. I see Jackson continuing on the way he has in the past, albeit with a BABIP that is a bit more under control than in years past.

Phony? Not quite. He won’t continue the incredible start, but he won’t disappoint you either. I think he could be a nice number three option, but I won’t trust him as a number two.

Projection: 3.417 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, 178.7 K, 12.52 W, 194.53 IP—1.866 points above average
Verdict: Not Real, but not Phony either. You should be fine if he’s your number three.


Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals:

Here’s a guy I love. Lynn is having an absolutely stellar start to the year and it shows, as his regressed rates leave him as the second most valuable pitcher in fantasy (7.20 points above average), behind only Jackson, above. And, like Jackson, he’s doing everything right right now—from ground balls to whiffs, to control—if only these guys could induce some pop-ups!

Also like Jackson, he’s not “Real” but he’s not “Phony” either. Let’s face it, no one outside of Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw are real to this extent.

Either way, I think Lynn is 2012’s Cory Luebke: a guy who posted good rates in the minors who just happened to hit another gear in the Show.

To date, he carries an expected 2.898 ERA, 1.149 WHIP, and 9.569 K/9. Going forward, he’s not this good, but he’ll make plenty of owners very, very happy.

At this point in the season, with Lynn being a rookie, I would want to play it safe. Slot him in as your fourth starter and be pleasantly surprised when he finishes the season as the most valuable pitcher on your staff.

Projection: 3.479 ERA, 1.302 WHIP, 14.74 W, 184.563 K, 182.56 IP -- 3.596 points above average
Verdict: He’s not an ace, but the breakout is real. Make him your number four SP and watch him produce like a number two.


Jason Hammel:

Ranked sixth by my April regressed values, Hammel sticks out like a sore thumb. In five starts, he’s got a 1.97 ERA, 8.44 K/9, and a 3-1 record. On his career, he’s got a 4.87 ERA, 6.34 K/9, and a 37-46 record.

What gives?

His BABIP is down 60 points, his groundball percentage is up 15 points, and his Z-Contact is down seven points.

I won’t pretend to know exactly what is causing this, but he’s been in the majors so long, it's tough for me to believe he’s all of a sudden hit another gear and morphed into a pure-K guy. If he’s still throwing like this in two more months, then I’ll tally myself among the believers. Until then, I’m going to cry hot streak.

Projection: 4.027 ERA, 1.432 WHIP, 12.61 W, 156.9 K, 185.47 IP—1.086 points below average
Verdict: Phony. Deal him if you can. Sixth starter or waiver fodder.


Derek Holland, Texas Rangers

Real. He’s figured it out.

Derek Holland burst on the scene a couple years back when his fastball velocity peaked into the mid-90s after a productive offseason.

Now, in 2012, it seems as though he may be taking that next step in his development. Sure, the ERA isn’t there yet (5.13 ERA), but that’s mostly due to a 60.9 strand rate. In fact, there’s really a lot to like here. Both his O-Contact and Z-Contact are way down, which portends to a big spike in strikeouts. Right now, his expected K/9 is a pretty sweet 8.974. I think he’ll settle in closer to 8.10-8.20.

Projection: 3.677 ERA, 1.354 WHIP, 187.68 K, 16.05 W, 206.6 IP, 8.175 K/9—1.890 points above average
Verdict: For the first time in his career, Holland is the real deal. Trade for him now and he’ll cost you almost nothing.


Anthony Bass, San Diego Padres:

Real—and probably the only guy on his list who is available to 80+ percent of THT readers. I’m placing a waiver claim tonight on Bass in a league where I just lost teammate Cory Luebke. He’ll join a rotation that’s as young as they come (Stephen Strasburg, Brandon Beachy, Chris Sale, Jonathon Niese, Lance Lynn; Michael Pineda and Luebke lost to injury). And no, I’m not sweating in the least bit, even though I only have three drafted pitchers left.

Back to Bass.

I don’t know where he Ks came from. I don’t know where the ground balls came from. And honestly, I don’t really care. I don’t have an explanation for why he struck out only 4.5 per nine innings last year with regressed rates in the 8.0 K/9 range, but I won’t ask too many questions. I really need a starter. His plate discipline characteristics are right in line with the ~50 innings he threw last year and, even pulling back his O-Contact rate, he still should be able to strike out eight per nine.

There’s a lot to like here and he’ll come at next to nothing (as long as you don’t have to trade for him).

I’m expecting big things out of Bass—relatively. He’s probably going to cost me about $2 and should have no problem being an above average player. Like Lynn, I’ll place him in a low-pressure role and be pleasantly surprised when the year’s over.

Projection: 3.539 ERA, 1.319 WHIP, 12.62 W, 182.54 K, 205.592 IP, 7.990 K/9—1.059 points above average
Verdict: Real. Place him in a role where you don’t have to lean on him and watch the stats pile up.


Ross Detwiler, Washington Nationals

Another Nats hurler showing some stuff, Detwiler is a former sixth overall pick whom Nationals fans have been waiting on for quite some time. Though he posted a 3.00 ERA last year, he really wasn’t all that good.

This year has been different, however. He won’t be an ace, as his 1.64 ERA suggests, but he should be a solidly average pitcher through the rest of the season. He seems like a poor man’s Jonathon Niese in that he doesn’t have any single overwhelming attribute, but he is solid across the board.

Projection: 3.751 ERA, 1.304 WHIP, 11.47 W, 144.186 K, 182.1 IP—0.073 points above average
Verdict: Real and will finish the season as your third-best starter.


Jeff Samardzija, Chicago Cubs

Maybe it was because he gave up a future as a superstar ide receiver to zig-zag to and from minor league cities across the Midwest. Maybe it was the way he inked a signing bonus far above that of a fifth-round pick. Maybe it was because he was so underwhelming for so long at the major league level.

Whatever the reason, I’ve always had trouble taking Jeff Samardzija seriously when it comes to evaluating him as a baseball prospect. I think there are many others out there who can agree with me.

That all changes this year. As John Kruk likes to say, he’s not an athlete, “he’s a ballplayer,” and I’m now willing to view him as such.

The ingredients are all there for a big-time breakout. The groundballs are up, he’s generating whiffs, and hitters are chasing out of the zone. I just wish it didn’t take me this long to notice, because he’s off the waiver wire in my most important league—gone to my biggest fantasy rival.

The O-Swing is going to come down a lot, but that won’t be much of a road block. Samardzija finishes the season as your third best pitcher and all that for the price of a waiver wire pick. Now, if only he played on a team that could score some runs.

Projection: 3.573 ERA, 1.278 WHIP, 11.58 W, 190.26 K, 201.87 IP, 8.48 K/9—1.482 points above average
Verdict: Real. Time is running out to add him.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Mike Silver 2012-05-03T09:13:15+00:00 Fantasy, trending now (4/26) http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-trending-now-4-26/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-trending-now-4-26/#When:05:22:15 Mike Aviles suddenly studly
Another example of why batting order might be the most important thing next to talent.

After a shoulder injury knocked Jacoby Ellsbury out of the Red Sox lineup for six-plus weeks, Mike Aviles was chosen as his replacement for the leadoff role.

A low-OBP guy, Aviles is hardly your prototypical leadoff hitter. Fortunately for fantasy owners, that doesn’t matter much. Mike Aviles is now a hot commodity, morphing from fantasy afterthought to stud overnight.

Yeah, moving from ninth to first can do that to a hitter.

A healthy Aviles, receiving a full-season’s worth of at-bats out of the nine hole, would have been expected to produce a respectable 63-13-71-13-.274 line, good for about half a point below average in 12-team leagues.

Place him in the leadoff role, with all those extra plate appearances and scoring opportunities, and his value balloons by two and a half points to 1.9 points above average (91-16-69-16-.274).

Granted, Aviles won’t remain the leadoff man for the remainder of the season, but two months in the role will do wonders for his value. Shuttling between the top and the bottom of the lineup, I don’t see any reason why Aviles couldn’t finish the balance of the season as a one-point player.

He likely isn’t available via free agency in your league, but if you’re in need of help at short, don’t be shy about kicking the tires. His ownership shot up only recently, so he can probably still be had on the cheap. Get the discussion started with the offer of a low-tiered starting pitcher (think about a low No. 4- high No. 5) or similarly valued outfielder (No. 3-No. 4). If you can pry him away for a guy around 0.5 points below average, I would say you’ve won that trade handily.

Is Phil Humber worth owning?


I think so.

His value might never be higher than it is right now, but if you can place him as a No. 5 in your rotation, I think you’re doing quite well.

This isn’t a perfect-game-hangover, either. Humber had a modest breakthrough last season, striking out 6.40 per nine to go along with a 3.75 ERA and 3.86 xFIP. He pounds the zone, as evidenced by his 54.1 zone percentage, and owns a decent groundball rate (47.1 percent in 2011).

This year, I think he improves on those K numbers to about 7.5 per nine, though he’ll have to take a step back in the ERA and WHIP department. That Chicago defense was flat-out bad last year (.686 defensive efficiency) and that will weigh down his BABIP like an anchor. The home ballpark will also hurt, driving up his HR/FB.

Overall, I see a No. 5 fantasy starting pitcher, finishing with a 4.10 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9. Sure, it ain’t sexy, but that’s a serviceable hurler who will accrue stats without hurting you anywhere. That line should be good for about 0.8 points below average, and believe me, you can do much worse than that.

David Wright looking like a totally different hitter... again


I've owned David Wright on at least one team for about three years now. I can’t say that, in any of those seasons, I’ve ever really known what is going on with him.

I won’t recount his history—that would just be a waste of time. If you’re reading this, you’re well aware of his ups and downs, his injuries, and his general inconsistency.

This year is no different. He’s up, he’s down, he’s got a broken finger, he’s hitting home runs, he’s striking out twice a game, he’s not striking out for three games in a row… blah, blah, blah. Just more of the same nonsense.

But that doesn't mean he can’t be better, though.

While it's too early to say anything definitive about his power (up?), speed (down?), or batting average (does anyone know?), there are a few interesting trends in his plate discipline that suggest he may be moving in the right direction.

So far this season, his plate discipline seems vastly improve. He’s swinging at far better pitches, offering less out of the zone (17.4 O-Swing percentage, 25.6 percent career) and getting more aggressive in the zone (72.8 Z-Swing percentage, 63.8 percent career). This trend is a good one, as swinging at more strikes and fewer balls is obviously a good idea, and should lead to lower strikeout percentages (and possibly, a higher BABIP and HR/FB rate).

In true David Wright style, it hasn’t been all good news, however. Though his O-Contact rate has increased (ostensibly due to swinging at better O-Zone pitches), his Z-Contact rate is down significantly (83.1 percent, 86.7 percent career). Z-Contact is the main driver in strikeout percentage, so this is a somewhat troubling trend and bears watching.

Though his profile has changed significantly, the results don't seem to be all that different. Any gains from these plate discipline improvements should be immediately reflected in Wright's strikeout rate. However, his regressed K-rate comes in at 20.96 percent—just about the same as last season’s mark of 21.7 percent. The lack of improvement here is mainly due to the poor Z-Contact rate.

However, if you expect his Z-Contact rate to make a partial recovery to the 86 percent range, his K-rate drops to 18.5 percent and he gains another home run and about 30 points of batting average from the extra batted balls.

So, there is hope.

If you’re a Wright owner (or prospective owner), that Z-Contact rate is the number to watch. If it recovers and the other gains hold constant, Wright could reach the .300 benchmark for the first time since 2009. It will require a .330 BABIP, but that isn't an unreasonable expectation (career .341 BABIP)—though the pinky injury does complicate things.

If you believe he can stay healthy (which is another question all in itself) and build on these plate discipline gains, Wright could once again return to the ranks of the elite. I can’t image he’ll ever be a top-five player again, but top-15 is within reach.

With his new approach, a healthy Wright can turn in a 99-27.5-100-15-.300 line. That line is good for 5.9 points above average, which is comparable to an early-to-mid second rounder in 12-team leagues. Before you get too excited, however, remember this is still David Wright we’re talking about. Don’t get too bullish, but know there is room for optimism.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Mike Silver 2012-04-26T05:22:15+00:00