The Hardball Times -- Michael Stein http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-23T08:50:15+00:00 The Verdict: keep your trade secrets to yourself http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-verdict-keep-your-trade-secrets-to-yourself/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-verdict-keep-your-trade-secrets-to-yourself/#When:07:03:15 Cole Hamels from another team and disclosed that he was prepared to make an offer. His leaguemate turned around and made a better offer, thus obtaining Hamels right from under him.

Does it sound shady? A little bit. But is it illegal or against the rules? The Court did not think so.

Deer Antler Spray Tan and the Sith Lords made a deal. Deer Antler Spray Tan traded Adam Jones and Jeremy Hellickson to the Sith Lords for Hamels. After the trade was accepted by both teams, the commissioner approved it and it was processed through the league’s website. Upon receiving notice of the trade, the team known as the Church of Latter Day Taints protested to the commissioner, arguing that the deal should be nullified because Deer Antler Spray Tan went behind his back and poached Hamels from him. The commissioner rejected the Church of Latter Day Taints’ request and stated that the trade was fair and the teams involved did not violate any league rules.


Issue presented


The Court was not asked to evaluate the merits of the trade. However, for posterity, the trade of Jones and Hellickson in exchange for Hamels is fair and equitable, and it would be upheld. Rather, we were asked to overturn the trade for the alleged subterfuge under which it was conceived.

This case unfortunately deals with allegations of bad sportsmanship and chicanery. While there is an obvious and inherent desire to succeed, there is also a generally accepted code of conduct within the fantasy sports industry premised on acting in good faith within leagues and among league members. It gets murky when someone’s actions could be perceived as bad faith but do not necessarily violate any league rules or create the need for recourse.

Here, the Church of Latter Day Taints argues that he informed his friend John, the owner of Deer Antler Spray Tan, that he was engaging in trade negotiations with the Sith Lords for a deal involving Cole Hamels. He states that he made these statements casually while they spoke on the phone a couple days before the trade was consummated. Days later, the Church of Latter Day Taints learned of the trade that was made without being given the opportunity to continue negotiating or increase the value of his offer on the table.

The question is whether Deer Antler Spray did anything wrong by consummating the subject trade with the Sith Lords. To evaluate that, we must consider what possible actions could be perceived as illegal, unethical or against the best interests of the league.

One potential cause of action to analyze is whether this constituted collusion. The Court takes this extremely seriously because alleged acts of collusion within a fantasy league are one of the most serious fantasy sports crimes and can undermine the integrity of a league more than almost anything else. Collusion is defined as a secret agreement or conspiracy especially for fraudulent or treacherous purposes.

Based on the facts known surrounding the trade that was made, no rules or league guidelines were circumvented. The appellant’s displeasure at Deer Antler Spray Tan for trading with someone else does not rise to a viable cause of action. Fantasy players are permitted to trade with whomever they choose so long as the trades themselves are fair and equitable. Teams are not obligated to shop players around for a more advantageous deal. The end result here was a fair trade made between two teams in the league and the Court could not reasonably conclude that there was any foul play involved to implicate collusive activity.

It is debatable whether Deer Antler Spray Tan’s actions were ethical if in fact he used information provided by the Church of Latter Day Taints to his own advantage to secure a trade. The record was devoid of evidence of whether Deer Antler Spray Tan was engaged in his own trade negotiations at the time. Assuming that he was not, did he do anything so egregious as to warrant overturning the trade? The Court did not believe so.

What we have here is a lesson to be learned by the Church of Latter Day Taints and all other fantasy players. Fantasy baseball strategy should be kept to one’s self because information is not proprietary. Teams are not bound by terms of secrecy. No one team owns exclusive rights to negotiate trades with other teams. The Church of Latter Day Taints foolishly disclosed his own strategy and information which was then allegedly used against him. That is no one’s fault but his own.

The fantasy baseball audience is welcome to judge whether those actions are ethical or moral. But the Court’s jurisdiction is simply to uphold the rules and guidelines and to ensure that the integrity of the league is maintained. The fact that Cole Hamels, a star pitcher who has under-performed thus far in 2013, is the target of trade offers is not surprising. It makes perfect sense that other teams would want to “buy low” on him. Whether Deer Antler Spray Tan was pursuing this prior to his conversation with the Church of Latter Day Taints is irrelevant. He is free to pursue trades at any time he desires. In this instance, he likely took advantage of unsolicited information proffered to him and struck a deal that benefited his own team. That is simply fantasy baseball savviness.

The appellant had no justifiable expectation of secrecy or exclusivity by disclosing his trade strategy. He assumed the risk by informing a fellow league member of his intent to trade for Hamels and allowing enough time to pass for the Sith Lords to take a different compensation package. The Church of Latter Day Taints, just like all other fantasy sports players, is responsible for his own due diligence when managing fantasy teams including trade negotiations. Based on the foregoing, the appellant’s request to revoke the underlying trade was denied.

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Just like death and taxes are the only things guaranteed in life, injuries are all but assured in a fantasy baseball league. We see it almost every day where players go down with injuries, which wreaks havoc on major league teams as well as millions of fantasy baseball players. In actual baseball, teams can place their players on the disabled list where they remain safe and sound until they can come back. On fantasy teams, it isn't always so easy.

Depending on the number of teams and size of rosters in your league, the free agent pool tends to be lacking sufficient replacements when a player gets injured. That is why some leagues opt to not allow for DL slots at all. Sure, not having a DL slot creates drama, intrigue and true strategic planning when deciding whether to hold on to a player. But if a fantasy manager elects to build his bench with players at certain positions, he may not be able to replace that injured player without deviating from his strategy.

That is not to say that fantasy players are entitled to stay committed to the plans they made in the offseason or during the draft. But if we want to truly replicate some semblance of reality in our fantasy games, players need the flexibility to be able to stash certain injured players without being at the expense of someone else. This is why I advocate having DL slots available. But how many?

Deciding how many DL slots are available would logically be based on the number of teams in the league and the size of the rosters. One would think that the more teams and the bigger the rosters, the fewer DL spots a league should have. That does make some sense. But it also makes sense even if it is a smaller league with more limited rosters. Regardless of how many teams are in the league, it is advisable not to let fantasy players hoard injured players. I understand that teams are permitted to allocate their FAAB dollars or waiver positions however they want. But looking at the bigger picture and what is best for the league, the free agent pool should remain as viable as possible for as long as possible.

Most leagues I have participated in have a limit of three DL slots. I think this is a fair number to allow teams the flexibility to stash players who get injured, or even acquire players already injured. If a team sustained more than three injuries at a time, then it becomes a strategic decision who to hold on to and who to let go. This likely won't be an easy decision, but it is something that must be made to keep the size of rosters in check while also maximizing the free agent pool as much as possible.

The decision to have DL slots and the number permissible is something each league must decide. Some leagues prefer to play with the teams they drafted and not have any transactions at all. But if this is a point of contention in your league, it is advisable to settle on three DL slots because it is enough to compensate for a rash of injuries and few enough to prevent excessive hoarding of injured players.

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It is every fantasy player's responsibility to set rosters and lineups in a timely manner and comport with the league's permissible minimum and maximum requirements. In this age of technology, people can access their teams and make necessary maneuvers from almost anywhere in the world using the Internet, smartphones, and tablets. Granted, there are extenuating circumstances that would excuse someone from being able to do so. Without getting into specifics, let's just say that some things in life are more important than fantasy baseball (as hard as that is to admit). Typically the commissioner and fellow league members would understand such a situation and extend leniency.

Unfortunately, many leagues are littered with individuals who do not have valid excuses for missing deadlines. Such recalcitrant owners are not always easy to spot, especially in leagues that are composed of friends, family members, colleagues, and acquaintances. The dilemma for commissioners is determining when enough is enough and then deciding how to handle a situation when a league member fails to submit a legal lineup so often that it undermines the integrity of the league.

In most fantasy baseball platforms, commissioners can select an automatic disqualification or penalty for teams that have illegal or incomplete rosters and lineups. This is more applicable for head to head leagues, where wins and losses are determined on a weekly or periodic basis. Electing such a setting clearly places all league members on notice that there are penalties in place for such actions. It is advisable to include such a procedure within a league's constitution (if one exists) or at least in writing to the entire league before the season begins.

Before we get into what solutions can be offered, we must discuss the unenviable task that commissioners face when there are shades of gray in determining whether to take action. As stated before, sometimes life gets in the way of fantasy baseball. That is understandable. There are also instances where someone will have the courtesy to provide advance notice of an issue, or at least acknowledge such malfeasance as soon as practicable afterwards. This is excusable as well. But when a league member needs to be reminded or encouraged to set his lineup or bring his roster in conformity with the rules, then we may have a problem.

Generally, everyone should be entitled to one mulligan. People aren't perfect and sometimes we forget to take care of all of our responsibilities, including setting a fantasy baseball lineup. On the first occasion of malfeasance, the commissioner should issue a warning to the offending league member. If it happens a second time, the commissioner must heighten the scrutiny and publicly announce that the offending league member is risking expulsion or some other form of serious penalty for the next offense. If it happens a third time, the commissioner should take swift and decisive action. Keep in mind, the commissioner would be well within his discretion to act this decisively on a first or second offense if he is given the authority within the league's rules or if he lays out his intentions from the outset.

If expulsion is the decided course of action, the commissioner must decide how to proceed. First of all, the offending league member should not be reimbursed his entry fee or any other fees that have been paid. Unless something tragic happened and a person had to pull out of the league on his own accord, refunds are not part of the game. The commissioner can then seek to replace that team with a new owner and proceed from that point on in the season.

Another option could be to retroactively change the league schedule and set a "bye" in lieu of the expelled team. This would place everyone else on even ground in terms of when he was the opponent. As for that team's roster, those players could be released into the free agent pool or there could be a redraft of those players based on various criteria such as reverse order of standings or a random lottery. That would be up to the commissioner or set to a league vote.

There is not one foolproof way to prevent something like this, nor is there one perfect method in handling such a situation. But it is something that all leagues should be cognizant of because it can happen to anyone. The most important thing to remember is that the integrity of the league must be maintained in the best interests to all participating teams. Each instance of a recalcitrant league member would need to be evaluated on a case by case basis, but these are some general guidelines you can refer to if this situation presents itself in your league.

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The truth is that the results of the first week of the season bear little knowledge of how the rest of the year will play out. But that doesn't stop people from overreacting in a positive or negative manner. Fantasy baseball leagues need to be cognizant of those owners who will excessively undervalue or overvalue players based on their first week's performance.

This is not to say that elite superstar players cannot be traded. But, when trades involve players in the upper echelon of fantasy baseball greatness, there needs to be additional scrutiny. For example, 2012 AL Rookie of the Year Mike Trout was a top three overall pick in almost any fantasy baseball league format. What wasn't to like about him? He hit for a great average, had power, stole bases, and scored runs. But his performance during the first week of the season was nothing to write home about and certainly not commensurate with his draft value.

Based on one week's worth of games, some fantasy owners may panic and try to trade Trout for fear that this is foreshadowing the proverbial sophomore slump. The inverse is the example of Chris Davis. Davis was once a highly touted prospect with the Rangers who never developed into the hitter that Texas though he would. In 2012 with the Orioles, Davis showcased his talent by hitting more than 30 home runs.

However, this year he was still a mid-round draft pick at best because he had a limited track record and serious flaws in his mechanics. But during the first week of the 2013 season, Davis was arguably the fantasy MVP with four home runs and 16 RBIs through the first four games. Niw, fantasy owners may tend to overvalue him based on this small sample.

In either case, it is important that all leagues ensure that trades are made with equitable compensation based on more than just one week's worth of games. Whether your league handles trades with commissioner's approval or through a league vote, you need to employ an evaluation of players that expands beyond just Week One of this season. Trading Mike Trout for Vernon Wells should never be permitted regardless of their statistics to date.

Again, this doesn't mean a player like Trout cannot be traded. It just means you need to evaluate trades through an objective lens that takes into account much more than a small sample of early season statistics.

Another moral to this story is that fantasy players should not be quick-reacting traders. You drafted your teams based on your own rankings and preferences, likely employing some form of strategy. You should not abandon that strategy just because it hasn't worked out after one week. Your fellow league members will likely smell blood in the water and try to feast on your emotions. It is imperative not to let that happen.

However, there is no denying that savvy fantasy players will try to do such a thing, and they have every right to. But if one of them is able to negotiate a trade for an elite player who got off to a slow start, it doesn't mean such a trade should be approved if it does not bring back equitable or fair compensation.

Clearly each trade should be evaluated in a vacuum and in conjunction with the type of league you are in. Trades made in keeper leagues and dynasty leagues have a different evaluation than non-keeper or redraft leagues. But a lopsided and inequitable trade is still lopsided and inequitable no matter when it is consummated. At this stage of the season, league commissioners should be aware of deals that involve high profile players for less than equitable compensation.

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Recently, the Court resolved a case captioned Storm Troopers vs. One for Altuve which dealt with a fairly common draft-day problem in this era when practically all aspects of fantasy sports rely on technology, including draft room software and Internet connections.

The Keystone Fantasy Baseball League's online draft took place on March 20. During round six, the team known as One for Altuve allowed the 60-second timer to expire without making a draft pick. As a result, he was awarded Johnny Cueto, who was the next highest ranked player at the time. Immediately, One for Altuve wrote a message in the chat box of the draft room indicating that the draft room had frozen on him, preventing him from being able to make a selection. He asked the commissioner to back the draft up, undo the previous selection, and award him Paul Goldschmidt who was his desired selection.

Because no other draft picks had been made, the commissioner granted the request.

At that point, the team known as the Storm Troopers asked the commissioner to pause the draft for a discussion about what had just occurred. The Storm Troopers had the next pick and said they were going to select Goldschmidt. The commissioner indicated that his decision stood because One for Altuve raised the issue before anyone else made a selection.

While I understand the Storm Troopers' complaint, the decision was fairly simple in this case. One for Altuve did his due diligence to alert the commissioner of the problem immediately. Because no subsequent draft picks were made, no one else was prejudiced. The Storm Troopers said they were harmed because they were going to select Goldschmidt with the next pick. While that may be true, it can never be proven nor does it matter, because they hadn't submitted a pick before the commissioner paused the draft.

The commissioner made the correct decision because sometimes technological issues happen and are out of people's control. Commissioners have discretion to handle situations like this. Clearly he could have gone the opposite way as well. That would not have necessarily been the wrong decision, but the choice he did make was the best decision. This decision set a precedent for the way the Keystone Fantasy Baseball League will handle situations such as this. It should also alert fantasy players to be cognizant technological issues and be as proactive as possible in alerting your commissioner.

Typically the Court will uphold a commissioner's decision, assuming it was made impartially and in the best interests of the league overall. There is no discernible advantage or benefit gained by the commissioner in making this decision, so the Court can conclude this was done impartially. It also demonstrated an ability to fix a problem without harming anyone.

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Despite the Astros being one of the worst teams in baseball and having a limited number of relevant fantasy baseball options, their move will have an impact on fantasy leagues.

Because there are two 15-team leagues, there now must be interleague games every day of the season. This means that each team will play 20 more interleague games throughout the season, not just during two specific periods, as we have been accustomed to since 1997. This will have a profound impact on fantasy teams that rely on designated hitters who will potentially lose at-bats due to more games being played in National League parks.

In addition, NL Central pitchers will not get the benefit of facing the Astros, a poor team destined for more than 100 losses, several times during the year. On the other hand, AL West pitchers now reap the benefits of having Houston in their division.

There's an even more important issue in fantasy leagues arising from Houston's move to the AL. This has a direct impact on AL or NL-only leagues. NL-only leagues now lose an entire team's worth of players and minor leaguers. Granted, second baseman Jose Altuve is probably the only Astro worth drafting in many formats. But plenty of deeper leagues would necessitate going further into the Astros' organization for fantasy help, including players such as Bud Norris, Carlos Pena, Justin Maxwell, Jose Veras, Lucas Harrell, Brett Wallace, Fernando Martinez, or Jason Castro. Now these players are off-limits to NL-only leagues and all of a sudden available for AL-only leagues.

Taking this a step further, AL or NL-only keeper leagues have a dilemma on their hands. If a team in an NL-only keeper league had Altuve, chances are he would be kept since the pool for second baseman is relatively thin. Now that team will lose its second baseman because the Astros are in the American League. Fantasy commissioners need to come up with a plan to handle the transition. While we have known about this for quite some time, we cannot expect all fantasy league commissioners to have implemented a process for dealing with this situation. Now is the time to act before drafts take place.

One option is to offer a one-year extension or grace period where NL-only teams can better prepare for losing a player such as Altuve, or even minor leaguers in dynasty leagues. This would allow everyone an opportunity to set themselves up for the future without being unduly prejudiced because of the move by maintaining ownership of Astro players knowing they will be lost at the end of the 2013 season. Or you could set up some sort of arrangement that would allow trades with other AL-only teams to even things out.

There is more than one way to handle this unique situation, and they are all equally meritorious. But whichever one is selected, fantasy league commissioners need to have the answers immediately. All league members should know how to proceed if the Houston transition directly affects their league. As long as the commissioner is specific, expeditious and rational in his decision-making, then the league can smoothly handle any questions or issues that may arise.

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Sure enough, that is what happened. After that, my plan was to wait until after the fourth round before taking a pitcher and I had no intention of taking a catcher before the 20th round. But, as in most fantasy drafts, I had to think on my feet and improvise when the unexpected happened. You can view details by visiting the league's home page.

My complete roster is listed below with the number in parentheses representing which round I draft that player in. Looking back, there are some choices I am second-guessing now. But overall, I am pleased with the team I drafted. I think I will be very competitive during the season with a chance to win the league championship.

C A.J. Ellis-LAD (23)
C Wilson Ramos-WAS (26)
1B Mark Teixeira-NYY (5)
2B Ian Kinsler-TEX (3)
3B David Freese-STL (10)
SS Asdrubal Cabrera-CLE (7)
MI Derek Jeter-NYY (17)
CI Ryan Howard-PHI (11)
OF Andrew McCutchen-PIT (1)
OF Jose Bautista-TOR (2)
OF Michael Bourn-CLE (6)
OF Andre Ethier-LAD (13)
OF Alfonso Soriano-CHC (16)
U Mike Moustakas-3B-KC (14)

P David Price-TB (4)
P Roy Halladay-PHI (8)
P Jonathan Papelbon-PHI (9)
P Josh Johnson-TOR (12)
P Jonathan Broxton-CIN (15)
P Brandon League-LAD (18)
P Tim Hudson-ATL (19)
P Ryan Vogelsong-SF (21)
P Andy Pettitte-NYY (22)

BE Denard Span-OF-WAS (20)
BE Colby Rasmus-OF-TOR (24)
BE Jeff Keppinger-3B-CHW (25)
BE Lucas Duda-OF-NYM (28)
BE Ubaldo Jimenez-SP-CLE (27)

I love the 1-2 combination of McCutchen and Bautista. I was a little surprised that Bautista made it back to me in the second round, but that is because people are concerned about him coming back from wrist surgery, which is always a red flag for power hitters. However, I was thrilled to land him with the 19th overall pick, which is exactly where I recommended taking him when I previously discussed his return from injury here. Even if Bautista's power regresses slightly, I still expect 30-35 home runs with a ton of RBIs in the middle of a very potent Blue Jays' lineup.

In the third round, I had to go with Plan C because David Wright and Jacoby Ellsbury were taken right before me. So I opted for Kinsler. Normally I would not select a second baseman not named Robinson Cano this early, but I was targeting a player who could produce across the board. With all the recent departures from the Rangers' lineup, I expect Kinsler to step up and become a more prominent force.

Heading into the fourth round, I was still planning on waiting for pitchers. But when I saw 2012 Cy Young winner David Price on the board after Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Cole Hamels were gone, I had to snatch him up. Price is one of the best young pitchers in baseball and, assuming he remains healthy, should be a lock for 15-20 wins, 200+ strikeouts, a sub 3.00 ERA, and a WHIP in the low 1.00s.

When looking at my roster, it is clear that there is a lot of age and injury risk. Players like Teixeira, Howard, and Jeter are no spring chickens and all have had injuries within the past year. But the risk is worth the reward given where I took them in the draft.

I was targeting Freddie Freeman or Billy Butler for first base, but they were drafted before me. Teixeira is one of the hardest working players and, despite his poor batting average the past few seasons, is a lock for 30 homers and 100 RBI. Not bad consolation.

Howard is finally healthy after a dreadful 2012 when he was coming back from Achilles surgery and then injured himself again at the end of the year. I don't expect him to reach .290 again, but I also don't expect him to hit below .220 like he did last year. Regardless of his average, there is no reason to think he won't put up 30-100 again over the course of a full season.

As for Jeter, I was very pleased to get him in the 17th round. True, he is in his late 30s and coming back from ankle surgery. But Jeter is a machine and is coming off one of his best years. He will provide solid production in batting average and runs scored as my middle infielder.


I filled out the rest of my offense with players of similar capabilities. None stand out as league-leading bashers. But players like Freese, Moustakas, and Ethier can all be counted on for something in the ballpark of 20 homers and around 75 RBI. Ethier and Freese are capable of hitting .290, but Moustakas will need to show some improvement with his average to really become a fantasy standout.

Michael Bourn will help keep me competitive in the stolen base and runs scored categories; I expect him to run wild in Cleveland. Speaking of Cleveland, Asdrubal Cabrera was a big bust in 2012 but should be able to come close to his 2011 numbers now that he has reinforcements and support in the Indians' lineup. And Alfonso Soriano, one of the most perplexing and fascinating fantasy players, will be a real bargain as a 16th round pick if he can duplicate his 2012 numbers and reach 30-100 again.

Chasing saves in roto leagues is usually a complete crapshoot. There are always premier closers who lose their jobs midway through the season, and there are always guys who emerge out of nowhere to rack up saves later in the season. Craig Kimbrel has become as close to a sure thing as there is, so it was not surprising he was the first closer taken. I wanted to at least ensure that I was competitive in this category, so I took Papelbon in the ninth round after Kimbrel and Jason Motte were off the board. Papelbon had a stellar season in Philadelphia despite the team underperforming. Now the Phillies are healthy again and should be a much improved team, which means more save opportunities for Papelbon.

I surrounded Papelbon with two potential disasters—Broxton and League. Broxton returns to his closer role now that the Reds are shifting Aroldis Chapman into the starting rotation. Cincinnati should be a very good team this year, so Broxton will get a fair share of save opportunities. The issue will be whether he still has lights-out stuff now that he is a few years older and already had major arm surgery. League is the epitome of a wild card because of how electric and erratic his stuff is. He completely blew up for Seattle last year before he was shipped off to the Dodgers. Now Don Mattingly has anointed him as the team's closer thanks in large part to the questions surrounding Kenley Jansen's health. The Dodgers, on paper, should be one of the best teams in baseball so League will have plenty of chances to show he has improved his control and can shut games down.

In terms of my starting pitchers, I feel pretty good about my No. 2 and No. 3, who could become two of the biggest steals of the draft. I took Roy Halladay in the eighth round; I think that will turn out to be one of the best picks of the whole draft. Halladay had a down year in 2012, in large part due to a nagging shoulder injury. All of his numbers trended downward so drastically that many people have written him off. I am not one of those people. I expect him to rebound in 2013 and return to his previous Cy Young form. The Phillies would be smart to not let him throw as many pitches and innings this year despite his motivation to reach 259 innings and have his option vested for 2014.

The other possible steal I had was Josh Johnson in the 12th round. His injury history is well documented, so I accept full responsibility if this blows up in my face. But now that he has a fresh start in Toronto, I expect big things from him as his contract is about to expire. Johnson will also have some of the pressure taken off of him because he is now a No. 2 starter behind R.A. Dickey. It's a minor detail, but it is something to consider given that he will not be matched up as frequently with other teams' aces.

The rest of my pitching staff is composed of players who are long in the tooth but consistent across the board. Tim Hudson, Ryan Vogelsong and Andy Pettitte won't lead me to winning the strikeout category. But they are all consistent pitchers who will keep their ERAs under 4.00 and have good chances of winning most of their games thanks in large part to the good bullpens they have behind them.

I didn't even mention my catchers because I intentionally punted the position. I think it s a mistake to invest much in a catcher since injuries are so frequent and they typically do not play as many games as other players. Feel free to disagree. With Ellis and Ramos, there is no dispute that I won't receive much contribution from that position.

Is this the best draft I have ever had? No. But I am happy with the way it turned out. There are some obvious weaknesses and concerns on my roster, but I think they can be overcome with solid and consistent production from my known entities and some big payoffs from some of the chances I took.

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Hundreds of resources are available for fantasy baseball drafts. Whether it is a magazine, web site, radio show, podcast, or other medium, you can count on getting commentary and analysis of a mock draft done by some industry experts. These are very helpful to the hundreds of thousands of fantasy baseball players who crave as much information and insight as possible. But a mock draft’s intrinsic value is lost in translation with the typically generic and milquetoast analysis provided by industry insiders (myself included). That is why I wanted to step outside of the proverbial box and discuss another angle with mock drafting.

When registering for this mock draft, I selected the 12th pick because that is my draft position in an 18-team, head-to-head points league I run. I wanted to get in some practice drafting at that position, so right off the bat I had a specific purpose for what I was looking to learn. What I was most curious about was what choices would be around after the first 11 picks. I feared that my top hitters would be off the board.

Sure enough, that is exactly what happened after Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, Robinson Cano and Prince Fielder were taken before me.

Before continuing, I need to provide some background on my preferences and drafting strategy. I have never given much credence to the position scarcity theory—drafting a player at a particular position simply because there are so few viable options. When I drafted Cano with the 13th overall pick in my 18-team league in 2012, it was only the third time I had ever taken a second baseman before the fifth round of that draft since 1999. I am also relatively conservative when it comes to making early-round picks on players with significant injury histories.

That being said, I decided to try something new. I selected Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Hamilton with my wrap-around picks in the first and second rounds. I realize nothing seems overtly outrageous about that. But given my history, this was new territory for me. Tulowitzki is very talented and certainly worthy of a top-two pick. But he gets injured every year and is extremely streaky.

I also have significant reservations about Hamilton, which put me completely out of my comfort zone. First, he is also injury prone; he has played more than 150 games only once in his career. I realize he stayed relatively healthy in 2012 and put up tremendous numbers. But he was in a contract year and I am skeptical about players who perform like that immediately before cashing in on a lucrative long-term deal. Finally, we all saw the struggles Pujols endured during his first season in Anaheim. Perhaps Hamilton won’t have as big a problem adjusting since he is still in the same league and division. But if a hitter like Pujols needs a year to acclimate himself to a new environment, then I have to think Hamilton may suffer the same fate.

The point is that Tulowitzki and Hamilton represent two choices that I would normally not make in a real draft under these circumstances. We all tend to get caught up in ADP (average draft position), expert projections, and popular trends. But drafting a fantasy baseball team is an art form because it is unpredictable. You may think you know what is going to happen, but a lot of times you will be wrong in your assumptions. That is why it is so beneficial to do mock drafts so you can practice thinking on your feet and improvising.

But even more important than that, doing mock drafts allows you the freedom of testing different strategies without any consequences. I honestly don't know whether I would actually select Tulowitzki with the 12th pick in a real draft. My preconceived notions and historical tendencies lead me to believe I would go in a different direction. But in a mock draft, I had nothing to lose by employing a new strategy. In addition, because this mock draft was composed of experts and would be written about on web sites and blogs, I thought it would be interesting from an analysis perspective to go in this direction.

So what does all of this mean to you? Basically, I would encourage you to participate in mock drafts as part of your own preparation for the real thing. You can read as many magazines and articles as you want breaking down other people's mock drafts. But every draft is different and you have to be prepared to go to Plan B before the clock runs out. The best way to do that is by doing mock drafts and trying out different scenarios. If by the end of the draft you have a team that is a lock for last place, then you have at least learned some valuable lessons on what not to do.

Remember, don't mock it until you try it.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Stein 2013-02-20T07:54:15+00:00 The Verdict: to the Victor go the spoils. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-verdict-to-the-victor-go-the-spoils/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-verdict-to-the-victor-go-the-spoils/#When:07:30:15 Victor Martinez of the Detroit Tigers will be back this year after missing all of 2012 due to microfracture surgery on his left knee. I have previously written about his return from injury and what kind of fantasy baseball value he will have in 2013 for Fantasy Alarm. His return has sparked somewhat of a controversy over whether he is or will be eligible at catcher for the 2013 season. There are arguments to be made in support of having him eligible at catcher, but I think he should be eligible only at DH or a utility spot in your fantasy baseball league.

Let me preface this argument by assuming that your league’s positional eligibility requirements mandate that a player have at least 20 games at a particular position during the previous season to make him eligible to be drafted at that position. I realize that not every league uses 20 games as the threshold, but most leagues do so that is what I will use here.

In 2011, Martinez had 112 games at DH, 26 games at catcher, and six games at first base. Heading into 2012, he was clearly eligible at catcher. However, it became apparent based on these statistics and Jim Leyland’s preferences that Martinez’s days as a full-time catcher were over. The emergence of Alex Avila in 2011 allowed Leyland the flexibility to keep Martinez’s bat in the lineup elsewhere.

Some have argued that Martinez’s position eligibility should carry over to 2013 straight from 2011. I do not agree, because that contradicts the rules set forth in many leagues which require a minimum amount of games played during the previous season. It would also set bad precedent for future players who return after missing an entire season. We would all go for a ride down the proverbial slippery slope and that is not something league commissioners or fantasy sports service providers want to happen.

The Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment agrees with CBSSports.com’s decision that the best option for Martinez is to make him eligible to be drafted only as a DH or utility player. The fact that he is projected to be primarily used as a DH in 2013 is irrelevant to this conclusion. If we based position eligibility on projections or assumptions, it would set equally bad precedent because of how many times things change in a short period of time.

Of course it is still possible for Martinez to gain catcher eligibility this year if he makes enough appearances there for the Tigers. He is behind Avila and Brayan Pena on the depth chart, but injuries can change things quickly. For purposes of your draft preparation, you should go on the premise that Martinez is not eligible at catcher. Rank him accordingly.

At the end of the day, it is still left to the discretion of league commissioners who use service providers that permit customization of position eligibility rules and requirements. However, if a league commissioner elects to override a service provider’s decision and ignore the minimum games played requirement, he/she must accept the fact that this precedent is being established and be prepared to act consistently the next time a player returns from missing an entire year.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Stein 2013-02-12T07:30:15+00:00 The Verdict: analyzing a draft http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-verdict-fantasy-baseball-draft-analysis/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-verdict-fantasy-baseball-draft-analysis/#When:08:52:15
Below is a summary of the team I drafted along with some comments and analysis. It is in order of which round the player was selected in.

1. Albert Pujols (1B-LAA). This was an easy choice as King Albert slipped to me at the end of the first round. Granted his numbers were somewhat pedestrian in 2012 when compared to previous years. However, he now has a year under his belt on a new team and also has Josh Hamilton hitting behind him. I expect the power numbers to slightly increase as well as a return to his usual plus-.300 batting average.

2. Justin Verlander (SP-DET). I wanted to take a pitcher here because it would be another 20 picks before I got to pick again. The decision to take Justin Verlander was another easy choice given how dominant he has been and should continue to be. There is no reason not to expect at least 17 wins, a sub-3.00 ERA, 200+ strikeouts, and a great WHIP.

3. Curtis Granderson (OF-NYY). I expect eyebrows to be raised at this selection, but allow me to explain. Curtis Granderson is a free agent after 2013 and we all know what happens during players’ contract years. Granderson’s batting average took a major nosedive in 2012, but I expect that to bounce back. He will provide great production with homeruns and runs scored, and could be in for more RBI depending on where he bats in the Yankees lineup.

4. Hanley Ramirez (SS-LAD). Talk about a player whose fantasy value has gone down. Hanley Ramirez needed a change of scenery in the worst way. Now that he is in Los Angeles, I would expect his production to improve as well. His stolen base numbers will never likely be what they once were, but for a player who qualifies at both 3B and SS you can’t argue with his projected power numbers hitting in a potent Dodgers’ lineup.

5. Roy Halladay (SP-PHI). I was quite surprised to see Roy Halladay still available at this point in the draft. I wasn’t planning on taking a second pitcher at this point, but I couldn’t pass up the chance to grab the former Cy Young award winner and pair him up with Verlander on my staff. He had a down year in 2012 with some injuries and a lack of run support. However, I fully expect a return to greatness, especially because the Phillies will be a better team overall as well.

6. Jacoby Ellsbury (OF-BOS). It was just a year ago that Jacoby Ellsbury was considered a top 10 pick in any draft. However, injuries derailed him in 2012. Now he comes back in his contract year looking to prove he is worth a hefty new deal as a long-term investment. I think grabbing him in the sixth round will provide great value with his ability to contribute in all five roto categories,

7. Aramis Ramirez (3B-MIL). After all of these years, Aramis Ramirez still tends to go under the radar when discussing some of the better options at third base. Never before has this position lacked so much depth, but Ramirez is as consistent as they come with a solid batting average and close to 30 home runs and 100 RBI every year.

8. Jonathan Papelbon (RP-PHI). Wanting to make sure I got at least one elite closer, I grabbed Papelbon here in the 8th. The Phillies will certainly be better this season which means more saves opportunities. Papelbon had a very good inaugural season in Philadelphia, but with an improved team overall he could reach up to 40-45 saves.

9. Mark Teixeira (1B-NYY). Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira has been one of the most frustrating players to have on a fantasy team these past few years. Once a perennial .275 – .290 hitter, Teixeira has become an albatross for batting average in roto leagues. His power numbers have remained consistent, but he has never really elevated his game to the next level. Now in his fifth season with the Yankees and with A-Rod missing half the season, I think Teixeira could finally be in for his breakout season in pinstripes.

10. Yovani Gallardo (SP-MIL). After already drafting Justin Verlander and Roy Halladay, I grabbed Gallardo as my third starting pitcher. What is not to like? He wins double-digit games with a good ERA and high strikeout totals.

11. Alex Gordon (OF-KC). Coming into 2012, Alex Gordon was very high on my radar after his breakout 2011 season. After a slow start, he did finish strong. But now I think Gordon is ready to take an even bigger step as the Royals mix and match some young stars with veteran players to make a run in 2013. As Gordon gets stronger, a lot of those extra base hits are going to find their way over the fence for homeruns.

12. Carlos Beltran (OF-STL). In this league, there is no disabled list or add/drops. That means that I took a chance by drafting Carlos Beltran who is a lock to miss time at some point during the season. He had a very productive debut season in St. Louis last year, but he did miss several games with various ailments to his legs. If he can play 130-135 games, he should be able to put up similar power numbers.

13. Carlos Santana (C-CLE). I am never a fan of drafting catchers before the end of a draft, but with Carlos Santana still available I had to take him. Santana will be another year removed from his knee injury and will get time at first base and DH to keep his bat in the lineup. With an improved team around him, he should be counted on for 20 homeruns and 75 RBI assuming he remains healthy.

14. Drew Storen (RP-WAS). This pick was made before the Nationals signed Rafael Soriano as a free agent. Now it doesn't seem like such a great pick in terms of saves, but Storen should still help with ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.

15. Ichiro Suzuki (OF-NYY). Recognizing that my roster was deficient in projected stolen bases, I decided to take one of my favorite fantasy players of all time in Ichiro Suzuki. I know he won’t hit .340 with 60 stolen bases any more, but playing every day in the Yankees lineup should bring some of his fantasy value back in terms of batting average, runs scored and stolen bases.

16. Tom Wilhelmsen (RP-SEA). Acting on pure instinct, I decided to go for the kill in saves and grab a third closer. Wilhelmsen emerged from nowhere in 2012 to become a viable fantasy closer after taking over for Brandon League. The Mariners probably won’t win more than 70-75 games, but Wilhelmsen should save about 30 of them.

17. David Ortiz (DH-BOS). This was another risky pick given Ortiz’s age and injury history, but at this point in the draft his upside was too valuable. Even at his age, David Ortiz still is capable of hitting .300 with 30 homeruns and 100 RBI. Boston has overhauled a majority of the lineup around him, so Ortiz should have plenty of run-producing opportunities. It will be interesting to see how John Farrell uses him in interleague games which could possibly cost him some at bats.

18. Joel Hanrahan (RP-BOS). Now I am just being greedy with saves. I was very surprised that the Red Sox' new closer, Joel Hanrahan, was still available at this point of the draft. He is coming off of two very good seasons with the Pirates and now inherits the closing duties in Boston. The issue will be how many save chances he gets because Boston’s starting pitching and middle relievers must show a significant improvement from last year.

19. Dan Uggla (2B-ATL). I waited this long without taking a second baseman and I was still able to get Braves all-star Dan Uggla. There is no question that he will not help me in batting average, but he is one of the most powerful second basemen in the league. To get a second baseman that will hit at least 20 homeruns and drive in 75 runs at this point in the draft is a steal.

20. Alexei Ramirez (SS-CHW). My final pick of the draft is another player who has yet to really fulfill his potential. White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez has the tools to be a very good fantasy player with a good combination of power and speed. At the very least, Ramirez will provide depth at the middle infield position and give me some much needed stolen bases.

Here is what my roster looks like positionally:

C Carlos Santana (CLE)
1B Albert Pujols (LAA)
2B Dan Uggla (ATL)
3B Aramis Ramirez (MIL)
SS Hanley Ramirez (LAD)
CI Mark Teixeira (NYY)
MI Alexei Ramirez (CHW)
OF Curtis Granderson (NYY)
OF Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)
OF Alex Gordon (KC)
OF Carlos Beltran (STL)
OF Ichiro Suzuki (NYY)
UT David Ortiz (BOS)

SP Justin Verlander (DET)
SP Roy Halladay (PHI)
SP Yovani Gallardo (MIL)
RP Jonathan Papelbon (PHI)
RP Drew Storen (WAS)
RP Tom Wilhelmsen (SEA)
RP Joel Hanrahan (BOS)

Overall I like this team quite a bit. I think my power and run production should be at or near the top of the league. My biggest concerns offensively are batting average and stolen bases. If Ellsbury and Ichiro have vintage years, then I should be fine. On the pitching side, I am very pleased having three dominant starters plus four closers.

What do you think of my team? Feel free to share your thoughts and opinions via , on Facebook, or @FantasyJudgment.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Michael Stein 2013-01-29T08:52:15+00:00