The Hardball Times -- Myron Logan http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-06-18T08:13:15+00:00 Five questions: San Diego Padres http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-san-diego-padres5/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-san-diego-padres5/#When:09:19:15 busy winter, and while there is optimism surrounding the team heading into the 2012 season, most analysts (and projection systems) see them coming up a bit short in the always unpredictable National League West. The good news is that the Padres have one of the best minor league systems in the game, so it shouldn't be long until they return as perennial contenders. Here are five questions to ponder as the 2012 season nears.

Will the starting rotation hold up?


Over the last few years, thanks in no small part to Petco Park, the Padres have been able to masquerade below-average starting rotations as a team strength. While the effect of Petco Park on offense is generally accepted, even in mainstream outlets, it's still sometimes hard to grasp its impact. Considering that replacement level ERA for a Padres starting pitcher is somewhere around 4.50, depending on how you define it, might add some perspective. While 3.80-4.20 ERAs generally look pretty good in today's high-offense era, those numbers usually check in below average in Petco, depending on yearly offensive totals. Since 2009, the Padres have had only one starting pitcher (Mat Latos, v. 2010) put up an ERA+ over 110.

Heading into 2012, the Padres have five pitchers penciled into the starting rotation: Tim Stauffer, Cory Luebke, Edinson Volquez, Clayton Richard and Dustin Moseley. In the offseason, San Diego lost its best starting pitcher, Mat Latos, to the Cincinnati Reds in a blockbuster trade that brought four players to San Diego.

In 2011 left-hander Luebke had a breakout year for the Padres, striking out nearly 10 batters per nine and posting a rotation-leading 3.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio. While he's not pegged as the Opening Day starter, Luebke currently stands as the best arm in the rotation. His strikeout numbers kind of came out of nowhere in 2011, as he struck out only 7.5 per nine in the minors. Perhaps he was able to relax a bit in San Diego, after logging a lot of innings in hitter-friendly minor league stops such as Lake Elsinore in the California League.

Volquez, coming over from Cincinnati in the aforementioned Latos trade, might be the most intriguing Padres starter. He's struggled with injuries and performance over the past three seasons, but in 2008 Volquez posted a 3.21 ERA in 196 innings for Cincinnati, including 9.5 K/9. Still, 2008 was a long time ago and Volquez's career numbers (4.65 ERA, 92 ERA+) are much less impressive. It would probably be foolish to expect a return to prime form, but the hope is that a move to Petco may help him recapture some of his past dominance. Volquez has struggled with home runs over the past three seasons, especially in 2011, and Petco should help remedy those struggles. With his solid mid-90s velocity still in tact, the Padres are hoping Volquez is a solid contributor in 2012.

Stauffer, the fourth overall pick in 2004, has finally begun to establish himself as a reliable major leaguer. In 2011, he pretty much defined league-average, posting a 3.73 ERA in 185 and two-thirds innings (6.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9). While he's probably miscast as staff ace, Stauffer should offer solid mid-rotation performance this year. Lefty Richard pitched only 99,2 innings in 2012, due to season-ending shoulder surgery in late-July. Like Stauffer, Richard provides decent enough performance for a back-of-the-rotation arm. The final spot in the rotation will likely belong to Moseley, who posted a 3.30 ERA last season in 120 innings. He can't be expected to repeat that performance, however, as he struck out just under 13 percent and put up a 1.78 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

If you look at this rotation with rose-colored glasses and squint just hard enough, maybe you can see a solid big league starting five. If Luebke puts it all together, he could be one of the best left-handers in the game. If Volquez regains some of his 2008 form, he could be well above average. If Moseley continues to post a 3.30 ERA with 4.8 K/9, he'll be better than adequate.

Often times, however, looking through those rose-colored glasses we forget to consider the opposite side of the spectrum. What if Luebke goes through a sophomore slump? What if Volquez pitches like he has for the past three seasons? What if Moseley doesn't get so lucky and posts a 4.50 ERA.

As it stands now, the rotation might be somewhere in the vicinity of league-average, but it's not hard to see it being quite a bit worse than that. The good news comes in minor league reinforcements and the Padres have that in spades. Prospects such as Casey Kelly, Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland could be ready by midseason if needed, though the Padres would probably prefer not to rush things.

How good is Yonder Alonso?


The current Padres brass has put a lot of faith into the smooth left-handed swing of newly acquired Yonder Alonso. First, they picked him up as a centerpiece in the Mat Latos-to-Cincinnati deal. Secondly, they dealt first baseman (and previous top prospect) Anthony Rizzo (acquired in the Adrian Gonzalez trade) to the Chicago Cubs for reliever Andrew Cashner after Alonso's arrival. It's not too difficult to read between the lines and see the Padres preference for Alonso over Rizzo, and they've essentially cleared out his prime competition for the first base job (apologies to Jesus Guzman).

Interestingly enough, if you look around at prospect lists, Alonso and Rizzo are generally interchangeable. Kevin Goldstein, for instance, has Rizzo ranked 75th overall and Alonso 86th. Either way, Rizzo is gone and our focus shifts towards Alonso's expected production.

If you read a scouting report on Alonso's bat, you're most likely to encounter one or more of the following descriptions: "polished hitter," "professional hitter," "line-drive hitter," "opposite field hitter." Alonso's minor league numbers generally back up the scouting reports. In 1,340 plate appearances he's popped just 36 home runs, a bit worrisome for a first baseman. That said, he's a career .293 hitter and owns a solid .370 on-base percentage. It should also be noted that he's done most of his minor league work in pitcher-friendly environments. Last year with Cincinnati, Alonso triple-slashed .330/.398/.545 in just 98 plate appearances.

Despite the glowing scouting reports, most projections systems are relatively conservative:

System  BA/OBP/SLG
THT   .253/.321/.403
ZiPS  .256/.329/.401
PECOTA .253/.322/.399


While those projections aren't terrible, by any means, they're still a far way off from what most are anticipating out of Alonso in 2012. If you project off of Alonso's scouting reports, you're looking at a .300 hitter with a high on-base percentage and moderate power. Many are expecting Sean Casey-like production out of Alonso—think .300/.370/.470.

That isn't unreasonable, but it appears that Alonso hasn't accomplished enough in the minors to merit those expectations, at least not by the numbers. Remember, Casey hit .348 with a .955 OPS in the minor leagues, while being younger for his leagues than Alonso. It's not a particularly insightful thing to say about a 25-year-old entering his first starting gig, but the jury is still out on Alonso.

Will the Padres extend Cameron Maybin?


One of San Diego's bright spots last season, 24-year-old Cameron Maybin, emerged into an above-average center fielder, hitting .264/.323/.393 in 568 plate appearances. The bat by itself wasn't overly impressive, but once you consider Maybin's 40 steals (career 82 percent success rate) and above-average defense in center, the future looks promising.

Always considered a top prospect coming up through the Detroit Tigers system, Maybin conquered his strikeout problems last season, lowering his K-rate to 22 percent. Previously, in his 610 plate appearances with Detroit and Florida in the major leagues, Maybin struck out 28.2 percent of the time. While Maybin may never develop into an elite hitter, with strikeout concerns potentially behind him, he projects as an above-average contributor in the short-term.

Maybin won't become arbitration eligible until 2013 and he'll be under Padres control through 2015. The question, then, is should the Padres extend him into his free agent years? It's been a hot topic all offseason in San Diego, but the Padres have kind of skirted the issue. Further, Maybin recently switched agents, halting any progress. Maybin certainly is the type of player the Padres are trying to develop and obtain, getting much of his value out of his speed and defensive value. While no hitter is Petco-proof, athletes like Maybin are probably more likely to flourish in San Diego than one-dimensional sluggers.

Over the years, however, the Padres have been stingy in handing out long-term deals. In fact, San Diego currently has no players signed to multi-year deals, excluding option years. There are positives and negatives to such a philosophy. On one hand, the Padres have no long-term burdens, no albatross contracts. On the other hand, they're generally riding out contracts year-by-year in arbitration and as free agency nears, players are usually dealt or simply allowed to sign elsewhere. It's not a particularly popular model among fans.

Adrian Gonzalez is a good example. While the Padres did sign Gonzalez to a four-year, $9.5 million deal (plus option), they didn't buy out any of his free agent years. As Gonzalez's free agency neared, the Padres started shopping him and ended up dealing him to the Red Sox (with one year left under his contract) for a package of prospects. While they likely saved a bundle of money bypassing the arbitration process, it would have been nice to have Gonzalez around for a few extra seasons.

When will the kids get the call?


Kevin Goldstein's aforementioned Top 101 prospect list includes 10 San Diego Padres, far more than any other organization. While the Padres may lack elite talent, many of the team's prospects could potentially contribute to the 2012 team.

Three pitchers, Robbie Erlin, Joe Wieland and Casey Kelley could all be ready at some point in 2012 should the major league starting rotation falter. All three have already spent time in Double-A and appear to be on the fast-track to the majors. Wieland and Erlin were acquired at the trade deadline last season from Texas in exchange for reliever Mike Adams. Kelly was part of the package received last offseason from Boston for Adrian Gonzalez.

The Padres have a number of other pitching prospects who could contribute to this year's club, including Anthony Bass, Brad Boxberger, and Brad Brach.

The Padres also have depth among position players. Alonso, as we discussed earlier, will likely be the starter at first base. 23-year-old Yasmani Grandal, acquired with Alonso in the Latos trade, hit .305/.401/.500 last season, spending much of the year in Double-A. Nick Hundley's presence will allow the Padres to be patient with Grandal, but he isn't far away.

At third base, Jedd Gyorko is already knocking on the door, having hit .323/.392/.518 in his first two professional seasons. While Gyorko probably won't be a regular contributor until 2013, if something happens to Chase Headley, third base is Gyorko's for the taking.

In the outfield, there are a number of potential call-ups for the 2012 season, including James Darnell, Jaff Decker and Blake Tekotte. Darnell, who has played a lot of third base but projects as an outfielder, doesn't have much left to accomplish in the minors, having hit .302/.401/.508 in his professional career. At this point, the 25-year-old will wait for a call-up in Triple-A Tucson.

Decker owns a career .411 on-base percentage and has power, but there are concerns about his glove work in the outfield. He posted a career-worst .790 OPS in Double-A San Antonio in 2011. Tekotte doesn't project as a big league starter, but he could make a solid fourth outfielder. He does a little bit of everything and is known for his hard-nosed style.

The Padres have a well-stocked farm system, especially when you consider that we've only touched on the near-ready guys (and left a few well-deserved ones out of the discussion). There are a number of other prospects, like outfielders Rymer Liriano and Donavan Tate, who offer plenty of upside for 2013 and beyond.

As far as call-ups, it comes down to a balancing act: When are these guys ready, when are they needed at the major league level, and when do the Padres want to start their respective clocks? Consider a scenario where the Padres are contending through mid-June but are getting little production out of the back-end of the rotation or right field. Do they make the call for an Erlin/Wieland/Kelly or for Jaff Decker or James Darnell in the outfield, or do they stick with the major league production and let the prospects continue to develop in the minors? What if the Padres are out of it? Do they opt to get a long look at a prospect or two, or do they keep them in the minors in fear of starting their service-time clock too early?

Who is next to be traded?


The Padres have made a flurry of moves this offseason and they might not slow down as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. While the Padres are holding onto hope they can compete in 2012, the consensus is that they'll be relegated toward the bottom of the National League West in 2012, but will be major players in the middle part of the decade. Let's just assume they drop out of it by July, who is most likely to be dealt?

Huston Street: Street's an excellent reliever, but he's a year away from free agency and doesn't fit in the long-term plans. Further, the Padres have plenty of bullpen depth and a future closer candidate in Cashner. After the returns the Padres have gotten for relievers in the recent past (namely Mike Adams, Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb), it wouldn't be surprising to see them shop Street at the deadline, especially if he's having a good season. Closers seem to be perpetually overrated and there's bound to be a contender in need of relief pitching that will be willing to overpay for a half season of Street (he does have a '13 player option).

Carlos Quentin: Acquired in the offseason for a couple of minor league pitchers (Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez), like Street, Quentin may also have an abbreviated stay in San Diego. While he's the only Padre likely to make a run at 20 home runs, Quentin will become a free agent after the season.

While there are some rumblings of a possible extension, you would have to think the Padres, reluctant to extend anyone, would be scared off by a lumbering corner outfielder who gets much of his value out of home runs and hit-by-pitches. If Quentin performs well in San Diego he could return more than the Castro/Hernandez combination that the Padres gave up for him come July (though I'm still cautiously optimistic about Castro).

Kyle Blanks: The Free Kyle Blanks campaign has officially begun, much to the delight of the Russell Branyans, Ken Phelps and Jack Custs of baseball yesteryear. After hitting .250/.355/.514 (148 PAs) as a 22-year-old rookie in 2009, Blanks has kind of been marginalized by the organization. He hasn't done much to help his cause, striking out in a staggering 31.2 percent of his major league plate appearances since 2009. He also underwent Tommy John surgery in 2010 on his right elbow.

Far from a sure thing, Blanks still deserves a shot to prove himself somewhere. He owns a career .305/.392/.513 minor league line, runs well for a 6-foot-6, 250-plus-pounder, and offers plenty of raw power. Plus, he's still just 25. Somebody will be interested.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Myron Logan 2012-03-22T09:19:15+00:00 Forecasting Prince http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/forecasting-prince/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/forecasting-prince/#When:13:41:15 Prince Fielder to a nine-year, $214 million contract earlier this offseason. The public opinion on the deal seems to be that: 1) it makes the Tigers really good in the short-term; 2) nine years and $214 million is a lot of money over a long period of time; and 3) that's a particularly large sum of cash to guarantee to a man of Prince Fielder's size and stature.

We've discussed the Fielder signing in detail here at The Hardball Times, but this time around I wanted to specifically focus on item number three listed above; Fielder's size and how it may impact his performance over the length of the deal. I should first note that the Internet is a big place, and naturally this topic has already been explored by Ryan Campbell and Jeff Zimmerman at FanGraphs. Further, I know there have been numerous size/aging studies over the years published at various locations. That said, I still believe it's worth it to continue down this path and see if we can uncover anything new with regards to how productive Fielder will be in his mid-30s.

With that in mind, and with help from my colleagues at THT, I set out to find a group of players similar to Prince Fielder. The specific traits desired in a Prince Fielder comp:

{exp:list_maker}The player must have been productive through his age-27 season.
The player must have been really big, preferably not only in weight but also in Body Mass Index.
The player should have played on the left side of the defensive spectrum, getting most of his value from batting/home runs.
The player must have turned 27 by 2002, giving at least nine years of performance post age-27. {/exp:list_maker}

I figured that, with help from Baseball Reference's Play Index, the task would be easy enough. I was wrong. Great players of Prince's size, somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-foot-11 and 275 pounds, simply don't exist. According to Baseball Reference, only 31 non-pitchers have weighed in at 250+ pounds. Out of that 31, only five posted a career WAR over 15, one of which is Prince Fielder. The other four are Jim Thome, Frank Howard, Adam Dunn, and Carlos Lee. Dunn and Lee are viable comps, but have not logged nine years since age-27. Frank Howard checks in at 6'7'', 255 pounds*, an altogether different body type from Fielder. Thome made the cut.

*Now is probably as good a time as any to mention my concerns with size data, specifically weight. The data I'm using is from Baseball Reference and I'm simply not sure how reliable it is. Further, a player's weight obviously fluctuates throughout his career, and I don't know when these weights were recorded. Some players, like an Andres Galarraga, looked entirely different early in their career as compared to late.

With concerns in mind about a lack of potential comparable players, I attempted to widen the thresholds for inclusion, lowering the weight and performance standards. The subsequent list is larger and includes a number of potential options. Still, putting together a final list of comps isn't easy. For instance, number one on the list in terms of Body Mass Index (32.5), is Miguel Tejada. At age-27 Tejada was playing 162 games at shortstop for the Oakland A's, deriving much of his value out of his ability to (adequately) defend at short. Not exactly Prince Fielder-like. Other guys high on the list are players like Scott Rolen, Hack Wilson, and Bobby Abreu. While these players have similarities to our subject, they gained too much value out of defense/base running to compare directly to Fielder.

I settled on eight players of which to examine, balancing the above-listed traits to best identify good candidates. The players:

image

On average, the eight players stand at 74.4 inches tall and weigh 231 pounds. They averaged 22.3 WAR through age-27, similar to Prince's 19.6. Over the next nine seasons they averaged 24.7 WAR, highlighted by Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez who aged very gracefully into their mid-30s. I'm using Rally's WAR, located on Baseball Reference in this article. Let's look at a couple of other graphs:

image

If you can't make too much of that, I don't blame you. Here's the average aging curve of all eight players:

image

You can see here that the group peaks, perhaps as we'd expect, at age-27. However, they remain productive over their next five seasons, averaging yearly WAR totals of 4, 3.9, 4.3, 3.5, and 3.5. The next four years are more of a struggle. While some players remain productive, a number of guys put up near-replacement level performance or begin to drop out of baseball altogether. Let us just assume, for kicks, that Prince Fielder ages exactly as his comps over the next nine seasons. How much would he be worth?

image

I came up with $142 million over the next nine seasons, accounting for a five percent increase in dollars per WAR each year. It's a far cry from the $214 million the Tigers paid for Fielder's services, but is it realistic? Our own THT Forecasts, which only project performance six years into the future (how dare they), actually project Fielder to be worth 18.5 WAR over the next six seasons. That's nearly three fewer WAR than the above-listed projection for Prince over six seasons.

Tangotiger looked at 10 first basemen with at least 10 WAR from age-25 through 27 and got a more favorable value projection of nine years, $183 million.

There are likely very few long-term valuations out there that will forecast Fielder to be worth $214 million over the next nine years. There's a reason most of the baseball world was in shock following Fielder's signing in Detroit. That level of years and dollars simply wasn't anticipated. For example, on average, FanGraphs readers expected Prince to sign a 6.5-year, $136 million deal.

Anyway, I don't want to give the impression that the long-term forecast derived here will be (or should be expected to be) accurate over the next nine seasons. Anybody who thinks they can accurately predict player performance over a nine year span should probably be selling their projections on an infomercial for $19.99. While I believe the eight players share similarities with Fielder and can perhaps shed some light on how he'll perform in the future, this method is riddled with any number of potential pitfalls, some of which I've already mentioned. Hopefully, though, you get an idea of how similar players have performed from age-28 through age-36.

For Tigers fans holding their collective breath, there is some reason to be optimistic regarding the signing. First, you get to watch an exciting power hitter play out his near-prime years in Detroit. Second, with Miguel Cabrera and Fielder hitting back-to-back, Detroit will have one of the best one-two punches in all of baseball. Finally, the Tigers are a good team right now and Fielder should put up very productive numbers in the short-term. In a winnable American League Central, the addition of Fielder to the Detroit lineup has a chance to win them a couple of divisions, if not American League pennants. You can make an argument that the Tigers are in prime position to overpay for a superstar caliber player and they made sure to do just that.

Still, there's no reason to sugur-coat the deal from the Tigers perspective. Fielder, a great player, simply isn't great enough to get paid nearly $24 million a year for nine years and earn it, whether he ages like his estimable group of large comparables or like an average player. Even if you consider Fielder to be a five WAR player right now and shave his WAR by a mere .3 WAR per year, he'd still fall $10 million short of his contract. Of course, if he was able to do that you would probably consider the signing a mild success. It would outperform all of his comps performance after age-27, except for Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, and Johnny Mize, all of whom were better than Fielder up to age-27. Considering that Fielder has only posted two seasons above four WAR through his age-27 season, the idea that he'll do it four times over the next nine years is stretching it.

In the 1982 Bill James Baseball Abstract, James discusses the breadth of a player's skill-set and how it may effect aging. Joe Morgan, he mentioned, experienced a particular late-peak and graceful aging period thanks in part to his ability to do a lot of things well. He was a solid contact hitter, possessed good power, was an excellent base runner, and a solid defender at second base. Morgan's peak years were from 28 through 32, where he posted nine WAR or better five straight seasons.

Fielder's skill-set, on the other hand, is more narrow. He's great at hitting for power, drawing walks, and staying on the field. His contact ability appears to be improving. However, he provides no speed, little base running ability, and no positive defensive ability. If Fielder's central skills decline, mostly his propensity to hit home runs, he'll be left with little baseball value. Still, we don't know what is going to happen to Fielder's specific skills. He could remain a productive power source, while hitting between .270 and .300 for the foreseeable future, retaining much of his current value while declining, if only slightly, in his speed and defense. After all, how much further can Fielder's speed and fielding ability decline.

Overall, we're left in a familiar situation when trying to project a player's performance years into the future. We simply don't know what's going to happen and whether Fielder stays productive through age-36 or suddenly falls off a cliff in three or four years is largely a mystery to us. The Tigers will hope for the former, obviously, but perhaps more importantly Dave Dombrowski and company will try to assemble a World Series winner in the short-term. It'll be a lot easier to deal with Fielder's potential albatross contract with flags already flying.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Myron Logan 2012-02-09T13:41:15+00:00 Evaluating a strange offseason in San Diego http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/evaluating-a-strange-offseason-in-san-diego/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/evaluating-a-strange-offseason-in-san-diego/#When:09:45:15 San Diego Padres should rebuild this offseason or try to assemble a contender. Since then, the Padres have made a number of big moves, trading away ace right hander Mat Latos to the Cincinnati Reds, acquiring outfielder Carlos Quentin from the Chicago White Sox, and dealing highly-rated first base prospect Anthony Rizzo to the Chicago Cubs.

Before we get into the specific deals, let's cover a little of the background story. The Padres manic offseason got underway in less-than-ideal fashion when general manager Jed Hoyer abruptly left the organization to join his former boss (with the Boston Red Sox), Theo Epstein, in the Windy City. We discussed Hoyer's shortened tenure with the Padres just last month. Obviously, it's tough to fully evaluate Hoyer's skills as a general manager in two seasons, but he appeared to have a long-term vision for the organization, as he took a run-of-the-mill farm system and quickly turned it into one of baseball's finest.

The vacancy at GM was quickly filled in-house, when the Padres appointed senior vice president of baseball operations Josh Byrnes to the position. Byrnes, like Hoyer, worked for the Red Sox in the mid-2000s. He went on to get his first general manager gig with the Arizona Diamondbacks in November of 2005. He was fired in July of 2010, with Arizona some 20 games back in the NL West.

An important figure in all of this is Jeff Moorad. Moorad was part-owner and CEO of the Diamondbacks when they hired Byrnes as GM. Currently, he's the Padres CEO and leads a group of investors purchasing the team from John Moores. He was still part-owner of Arizona when the sale went down. It's a bit of a convoluted situation (the transfer from Moores to Moorad and company was recently held up by MLB owners), but it's important to establish the idea that Moorad has a relationship with Byrnes and clearly did not hesitate to promote him as GM of the Padres.

Minor moves



The Padres offseason started off inconspicuously enough, with Josh Byrnes sending 27-year-old left-handed starter Wade LeBlanc to the Miami Marlins for catcher John Baker. By both fWAR and rWAR, LeBlanc has performed right around replacement level in 293 and a third major league innings. Despite pitching his home games in Petco Park, a pitcher's paradise, LeBlanc gave up 1.4 home runs per nine and posted a 4.54 ERA during his Padres career. With his fastball velocity limited to the mid-80s, there probably isn't much room for growth, though LeBlanc could certainly put in slightly better than replacement level work in Miami.

John Baker is a 30-year-old part-time catcher who has racked up only 104 plate appearances over the past two seasons. Baker underwent Tommy John surgery on his right arm late in the 2010 season. Questions surrounding his health (and ability to throw out base runners) are prevalent, but Baker did have a nice start to his career with the bat, hitting .281/.364/.423 in 2008 and '09 combined. He's merely insurance behind incumbent backstop Nick Hundley at this point. This is a minor transaction, obviously, and appears to be pretty neutral on the surface. It doesn't tell us too much about Byrnes' long-term approach.

With closer Heath Bell leaving via free agency, Byrnes and the Padres were destined to find a replacement on the market, bypassing such in-house options as Luke Gregerson, Ernesto Frieri, and the less-heralded bullpen-by-committee. San Diego settled on Colorado Rockies right hander Huston Street, dealing a player-to-be-named-later (Nick Schmidt, it turns out) and cash considerations to the Rockies for their closer. Street has one year and $8 million remaining on his three-year, $22.5 million deal (plus a 2013 option).

Street was naturally better early in his career with Oakland (think age and park effects), but he remained effective over the last three seasons in Colorado. Street posted a 3.50 ERA with the Rockies, but put up an impressive 5.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He struggled with the long ball, though, giving up 1.2 HR/9 with Colorado (that number was .6 in Oakland). Street will benefit greatly from swapping Coors for Petco, and there's little reason, outside of the general vagaries of relief performance, not to expect him to be a shut-down closer for the Padres.

Still, you could perceive this move as a little curious for a team coming off a 71-win season. Lefty starter Nick Schmidt isn't a highly-touted prospect and the Padres have a deep system, but $8 million instantly makes Street the highest paid Padre. While he could be worth every penny, you might wonder if those resources could be better spent elsewhere for a team that still appears a year of two away.

Shortly after completing the Street acquisition, the Padres sent outfielder Aaron Cunningham to the Cleveland Indians for right-handed reliever Cory Burns. Cunningham, shipped over from Oakland in the 2010 offseason, debuted nicely in San Diego with a .288/.331/.417 line (147 PAs) in 2010. Still, Cunningham spent most of last season toiling in Triple-A Tuscon, OPSing .931 and waiting until June for another major league plate appearance. He struggled with the big club, but given sporadic playing time, that's not too surprising. With a solid minor league track record, Cunningham could make a decent third or fourth outfielder with the A's.

Cory Burns is a 24-year-old right hander with a Hideo Nomo-like delivery. In three seasons in the minor leagues, Burns has dominated all levels of Single-A and Double-A, recording a 2.02 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and .4 HR/9 in 147 and a third innings. There are obvious questions about how that'll transfer to the majors, but we'll likely find out quickly as Burns could be a contributor to the major league pen in 2012.

Up until now, the Padres have had a pretty standard offseason. They made a couple of roster-filling type moves, adding Burns and Baker. The addition of Huston Street filled a major void in the bullpen after Heath Bell's departure. The Padres were just getting started.

Byrnes puts his stamp on the organization



Padres acquire first basemen Yonder Alonso, catcher Yasmani Grandal, and right handers Brad Boxberger and Edinson Volquez from the Cincinnati Reds for right hander Mat Latos

There were some initial rumblings prior to this deal that Mat Latos might not be in the Padres long-term plans. A few days later, he was gone. Latos was a draft-and-follow back in 2006 and he quickly worked his way through the minor league system. By 2010, he was a 22-year-old ace in a contending Padres rotation, throwing 184 and two thirds innings with a 2.92 ERA and a 3.8 strikeout-to-walk-ratio. Latos regressed last season, but still posted respectable numbers.

He has not quite established himself as a true top tier pitcher yet, as there are some questions about his ability to handle a big workload and some apparent maturity issues. Further, like any other pitcher, he benefited from pitcher-friendly Petco Park and will have to adjust to life in a more neutral environment. Still, Latos is under control for four more seasons and he should be a valuable asset for the Reds. Our own THT Forecasts project Latos to be worth 17 WAR over the next four years, and if he approaches those numbers he'll provide significant surplus value for Cincinnati.

Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal appear to be the key pieces heading to San Diego. Alonso is a 24-year-old first basemen who hit .330/.398/.545 in 98 plate appearances last season with Cincinnati. His prospect status has gradually dropped over the past few seasons as he's failed to put up monster numbers in the minor leagues, never slugging higher than .486. Still, he's a polished line-drive hitter and he's expected to fit better in Petco than the occasionally pull-happy Anthony Rizzo. He should be starting at first base in 2012 for the Padres.

Yasmani Grandal, a 23-year-old catcher, might still be a year or two away, but he raked at High-A and Double-A last season, putting together a .305/.401/.500 line. There are some questions about his defense behind the plate and he still has more to prove with the bat, but he has a chance to be a major coup as a catcher with good power and patience. Nick Hundley is holding down the fort at the major league level, so there's no rush with Grandal. Brad Boxberger, 23, is a right-handed reliever who struck out 13.5 per nine last season in 62 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. His control hasn't been great, but he's dominated so far in the minors. It's not hard seeing Boxberger contributing to the 2012 Padres bullpen.

Edinson Volquez is a wild card, to say the least, but he'll benefit from the move to Petco. Last year Volquez posted a 5.71 ERA in 108 and two thirds innings. He gave up only 30 percent fly balls, but 21 percent of them flew out of the ball park, resulting in 1.6 home runs per nine. Over the last three years, he's given up home runs on nearly 17 percent of his fly balls. Again, with the move to Petco, there might be some hope, as Volzquez still strikes out over 20 percent of batters faced.

Overall, this deal was almost unanimously praised nationally for San Diego. They traded a valuable chip in Latos, but they received too much in return to pass it up. However, the Padres did already have a top first base prospect in Anthony Rizzo, acquired from the Boston Red Sox in the Adrian Gonzalez deal last offseason. Rizzo struggled in his first big league experience last season, but he's a couple of years younger than Alonso and has put up more impressive minor league statistics. More on this soon.

Padres acquire outfielder Carlos Quentin from the Chicago White Sox for right hander Simon Castro and left hander Pedro Hernandez

Carlos Quentin is in his final year of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency. He recently signed a one-year, $7.025 deal with the Padres, avoiding an arbitration hearing. Quentin was a Diamondback when Josh Byrnes was Arizona's GM, and Byrnes dealt him to the Chicago White Sox for first basemen/outfielder Chris Carter in 2007. Quentin went on to have a career year in 2008, blasting 36 homers and hitting .288/.394/.571. He hasn't approached that level since 2008, but he still possesses a solid bat (his OPS+ is 115 from 2009-11).

Quentin has split time between right field and left field throughout his career. The fielding metrics generally agree that he isn't very good out there. His career Defensive Runs Saved is -22. His career UZR/150 is -9.3 runs. Tango's Fans' Scouting Report rates him well below average in each of the past three seasons. As a corner outfielder, Quentin's bat is good-not-great (and moves from hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular to Petco) and his defense leaves something to be desired. There's not a whole lot of value to be added here, especially when a guy like Kyle Blanks is all but forgotten.

The Padres didn't give up any upper-level prospects in the deal, as long as you ignore the fact that righty Simon Castro was rated as a top prospect prior to the 2011 year. Castro's prospect status cratered when the 23-year-old repeated Double-A and posted a 4.33 ERA (his numbers were much worse in 25 and two-thirds innings in Triple-A Tucson). Still, his peripherals in Double-A stayed largely the same and it's hard to believe a guy with a lot of hype last season could fall so quickly. The influx of talent in San Diego's organization certainly didn't help.

Left hander Pedro Hernandez is a small (5-10, 200), 22-year-old who has split time starting and relieving. He's put up some impressive numbers in the minors, including a minuscule 1.5 walks per nine and a 5.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. There are questions about his size and durability as a starter and he may be relegated to the pen, but he certainly isn't just a throw-in here.

While losing Castro and Hernandez isn't going to cripple the Padres minor league system, you have to wonder if it's worth the prospects and dollars to acquire a guy like Quentin. If the Padres were at a different point in the win-cycle, the move would make more sense, but it's unclear if anyone outside of San Diego's brass believes they are ready to compete in 2012.

Padres acquire right hander Andrew Cashner and center fielder Kyung-Min Na from the Chicago Cubs for first basemen Anthony Rizzo and right hander Zach Cates

As mentioned, when the Padres acquired Yonder Alonso in the Mat Latos deal, that gave them two excellent first base prospects. Although they didn't necessarily have to trade one of them right away, they apparently didn't want any playing time issues going into spring training and the odd man out was Anthony Rizzo. Jed Hoyer, who acquired Rizzo while in Boston (via the draft) and San Diego, picked him up again in Chicago for an injury-prone reliever and an unproven center field prospect. The Padres also had to throw in a mid-level pitching prospect in Zach Cates.

Cashner could certainly develop into a shut-down eighth inning guy or closer soon enough in San Diego (it doesn't look like he's destined to start), but you might expect more for a player with Rizzo's minor league track record and general prospect status. Further, it's always dangerous trading a position player for an arm, especially a reliever, when the two player's perceived value is similar. There's a larger injury risk with Cashner and there's limited value for relief pitchers in general. Admittedly, they can often garner quite a bit in return on the trade market (see: Adams, Mike).

Rizzo's value probably took a hit based on his first look in the majors, where he hit .141/.282/.242 in 153 plate appearances last year in San Diego. Further, the Padres may have lost some leverage in dealing him, when it was apparent that Yonder Alonso was higher up on the organizational depth chart. Of course, you can blame that squarely on the Padres who perhaps could have tried dealing Rizzo before they got Alonso or simply held onto both of them until someone offered a better package.

A changing of the guard



Initially, it appeared that replacing Jed Hoyer with Josh Byrnes was merely a formality, and that the organization would march forward on the same path that Hoyer had set. Byrnes and Hoyer are similarly educated (think small Northeast private colleges), they were both in the Red Sox organization in middle of the last decade, and they worked together in San Diego. While Byrnes may have a similar overall approach to Hoyer, he definitely has different thoughts on the specifics of the Padres organization.

Byrnes obviously didn't have much faith in Anthony Rizzo, picking up Yonder Alonso and dealing Rizzo to Hoyer and the Cubs. Further, Hoyer made it clear in San Diego that he was going to trade relief pitching for position players and/or starting pitchers. He dealt Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb to the Marlins for Cameron Maybin and he traded Mike Adams to the Rangers for Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland, for example. Byrnes, on the other hand, traded Rizzo to the Cubs for Andrew Cashner, a reliever. He also acquired closer Huston Street.

Reading between the lines, it seems quite obvious that Jeff Moorad has more trust built up with Josh Byrnes. In a recent interview with Darren Smith (1090 radio, San Diego), Hoyer admitted to being jealous that Byrnes was given the go-ahead to acquire Carlos Quentin and his $7 million salary. Hoyer wasn't given the same flexibility with the Padres, though part of that is certainly circumstantial: the payroll was going to gradually increase in time, regardless of whether it was Jed Hoyer or Josh Byrnes at the helm.

While Byrnes' transactions have been sporadic, to say the least, it's not as though he has failed in his first months as Padres general manager. The Latos haul by itself has a chance to override any of the less significant moves he's made this offseason. There's also more than a small chance that Yonder Alonso outperforms Anthony Rizzo, giving Byrnes a head-to-head win with his former boss. Still, in looking at the entirety of the offseason, it is worrisome that the Padres are suffering from a bit of an identity crisis, building themselves up as a contender in 2012 when the season could have been better spent building for 2013 and beyond.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Myron Logan 2012-01-19T09:45:15+00:00 Rearranging the Red Sox bullpen http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/rearranging-the-red-sox-bullpen/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/rearranging-the-red-sox-bullpen/#When:09:14:15 Jonathon Papelbon-less for the first time since 2004. Papelbon's quirky persona and closer-like mound antics made the ace reliever a fan favorite in Boston. His performance didn't hurt. In six seasons as the full-time closer, Papelbon closed out 219 games for Boston in dominating fashion, posting a 2.33 ERA while striking out 10.7 and walking 2.4 batters per nine.

When Papelbon signed a four-year, $50 million deal early this offseason with the Philadelphia Phillies, the entire baseball community was caught off-guard. Most notably, perhaps, was former Phillies closer Ryan Madson who was apparently close to re-signing in Philadelphia before the news broke. The Red Sox, expected to pursue their long-time closer, were now left to rebuild and reshuffle the pen.

The moves


Philadelphia Phillies sign right-handed pitcher Jon Papelbon to a four-year, $50 million deal (with vesting $13 million option)

While the Red Sox had interest in retaining Papelbon, it was unlikely they would invest $50 million (plus) in a reliever. The Phillies obviously made a big commitment to Papelbon, but they are getting a bona fide closer. If there were any thoughts that Papelbon was in sharp decline in 2009 and 2010 (his peripherals declined in both years, especially 2010), he restored a lot of faith with a return to dominance last season. His strikeout rate rose from the mid-twenties in '09 and '10 to 34 percent in 2011. His walk rate dropped to four percent, down from nine percent in the previous two seasons. Papelbon's FIP and tERA, two peripheral-based ERA estimators, were 1.53 and 1.88 respectively in 2011 (both career bests).

Papelbon returned to form in 2011, but relievers are notoriously hard to project, and he's now on the wrong side of 30. Further, while you may weight his 2011 performance more heavily, you can't ignore the recent past in formulating any type of forecast for Papelbon over the next four or five years. For sabermetrically influenced readers, a long-term forecast for a reliever may induce laughter. Many teams have built successful bullpens on a year-by-year basis, avoiding big commitments and minimizing the inherent difficulty in evaluating how relief pitchers are going to perform over the long haul (much less tomorrow). Even the Red Sox, with deep pocketbooks, have been relatively frugal with relievers. Their biggest current contract is Bobby Jenks and his two-year, $12 million deal.

The Phillies will likely have a dominant closer for the short-term and a clear, though not overwhelming, upgrade over Ryan Madson. With Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay anchoring the starting rotation and a championship (though aging) roster in place, one could make an argument that investing in Papelbon is a good move.

Red Sox acquire right-handed pitcher Mark Melancon from Houston Astros for shortstop Jed Lowrie and right-handed pitcher Kyle Weiland

Left in search of bullpen help in the absence of Papelbon, Boston acquired Houston's 2011 closer Melancon for an enigmatic, injury-prone shortstop and a decent pitching prospect. Drafted in the ninth round of the 2006 amateur draft by the New York Yankees, Tommy John surgery delayed the start of Melancon's career until 2008, where he quickly climbed the ladder to Triple-A as a reliever. He spent most of 2009 in Triple-A Scranton, striking out 9.2 per nine and posting a 4.91 strike-out-walk ratio. He also pitched sporadically in the majors and held his own in 16 and a third innings, though he struck out only 10 while walking 10.

In 2010, the Yankees dealt Melancon and Jimmy Paredes to the Astros for Lance Berkman. He saw limited action in the Astros' pen that season, but by 2011 Melancon inherited the closer role. He threw 74 and a third innings for the 'Stros, anchoring the pen with a 2.78 ERA, eight strikeouts per nine, and 3.1 walks per nine. Melancon also keeps the ball on the infield with a 55.5 percent career groundball rate and only seven home runs allowed in 112 major league innings. Melancon's newly developed cutter, which he used about 20 percent of the time according to FanGraphs, helped augment his repertoire and his groundball tendencies.

Melancon isn't arbitration eligible until 2014 and he's under control through 2016.

The Red Sox paid a price for the services of the right hander in Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland. Boston is relatively deep organizationally at shortstop, with Marco Scutaro doing a serviceable job on the big league club and highly rated prospects Xander Bogaerts and Jose Iglesias in the minors, so they apparently didn't feel the need to hold onto Lowrie. The 27-year-old shortstop had plenty of time to shine in Boston, but failed to to put it all together, as injuries and/or performance issues derailed promising campaigns. In four seasons with the Red Sox, Lowrie hit .252/.324/.408 in 920 plate appearances with near-average ratings from the defensive metrics.

Lowrie is definitely a nice pickup for Houston, as he'll take on the everyday shortstop role and have another shot to live up to the potential. Taking a shot at a young, position player for a good, but not great reliever is rarely a bad move for a rebuilding team. Lowrie is arbitration eligible in 2012 and is under Houston's control through 2014.

Weiland isn't merely a throw-in; he was recently rated 16th overall in the Red Sox system by John Sickels. The 25-year-old right-handed starter has progressed nicely through the Red Sox minor league system, with a career strikeout rate of 8.5 per nine and a 2.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Weiland will apparently be tried as a starter by Houston, but he may be destined for life in the pen.

Red Sox acquire right-handed pitcher Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney from Oakland Athletics for outfielder Josh Reddick, right-handed pitcher Raul Alcantara, and first baseman Miles Head

After picking up Melancon, Boston wasn't finished retooling the bullpen, adding Oakland's former closer to the mix. The 27-year-old Bailey was drafted by the A's in the 6th round of the 2006 draft, and started his journey in the minors as a starting pitcher where he posted solid numbers. By 2008, Bailey found himself in the pen and in 2009 he was quickly anointed the A's closer. He burst on to the scene with a tremendous rookie year, posting a 1.84 ERA and a 3.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 83 and a third innings.

Bailey would remain dominant in 2010 and 2011, but he pitched only 90 innings in both seasons combined. Bailey has been oft-injured since college, where he had Tommy John surgery. He suffered a variety of injuries during his time in the majors and overall concerns about the health of his arm have to be the biggest red flag in this acquisition. When healthy, he's certainly a more-than-capable closer, a role he's expected to take on in Boston. Bailey enters his first arbitration eligible season in 2012.

The Red Sox also acquired Sweeney, a versatile fourth-outfielder type who has spent significant time in all three outfield positions. He's held his own with the bat, too, hitting .283/.342/.378 in four seasons with the A's. With Reddick heading to Oakland, Ryan Kalish's recent surgery, and J.D. Drew's contract expiring, the Red Sox have a vacancy in right field. While they are expected to fill that void, Sweeney should get plenty of playing time with Boston.

Reddick displayed signs of brilliance in 2011 and owns an abundance of tools, but ended up posting a solid, yet unspectacular .280/.327/.457 line in 278 plate appearances. He's a decent defender and he offers more potential than a guy like Sweeney, but there are concerns about his control of the strike zone (in 403 major league PAs, he's walked just 22 times while whiffing 82 times). He's under contract through 2016 and if he pans out he'll be a welcome addition to the rebuilding A's.

Oakland also acquired a pair of interesting prospects in the deal. First basema Head, 20, hit .299/.372/.515 in 2011 splitting time between Single-A Greenville and High-A Salem. John Sickels rated Head as Boston's 21st best prospect this offseason). Righty Alcantara, 19, was impressive in Rookie ball. He obviously has a long way to go, but offers plenty of upside (Sickels rated him 23rd).

The reshuffled bullpen


The 2011 Red Sox bullpen was one of the best in baseball, consisting primarily of Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Alfredo Aceves, Dan Wheeler, Franklin Morales and Scott Atchison. Papelbon is out and with the acquisitions of Melancon and Bailey, the Red Sox are likely to try Daniel Bard in the starting rotation.

The 6-foot-4, 215-pounder was initially groomed to be a starter, but in his first minor league season in 2007 with Single-A Greenville and High-A Lancaster, the first round pick got lit up in the starting rotation. He walked over a batter an inning and struck out only 12.5 percent. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was .6. He jumped to the bullpen in 2008 and provided a 3.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in Single-A and Double-A. Joining the Red Sox bullpen in 2009 and in three seasons of relief since (197 innings), Bard's struck out 27 percent, walked 10 percent, and allowed just 16 home runs.

Bard certainly has the frame, mechanics and stuff to become a solid major league starter. He can hit 100 mph on the radar gun when he reaches back. But his only performance as a starter in professional baseball was the disastrous 2007 campaign, so converting him to the rotation may take some work. He's also had some confidence issues throughout his career.

Bailey will take on the closer role and Melancon will take on a late-inning slot.

Though they may also try him as a starter, Aceves was a surprise in the 2011 pen, and he'll likely play a major role in this season's iteration. The right hander isn't overpowering (17 percent strikeout rate), but a five pitch arsenal and a minuscule .235 BABiP have helped make him an effective reliever. He also has a rubber arm and ate up 114 innings last season for Boston. W-L record for a reliever is certainly not a great measure of performance, but Aceves has put up a remarkable 24-3 record in four seasons with the Yankees and Boston.

Right hander Bobby Jenks signed a two-year, $12 million deal with the Red Sox last winter, but never really got going. He pitched only 15.2 innings in 2011 before being shelved with back issues. In September things got far worse for Jenks when he was diagnosed with a pulmonary embolism, a blockage of the main artery of the lungs.

Jenks' status for 2012 is unknown, but if he fully recovers he's a prime candidate for a bounce-back year. In six seasons with the Chicago White Sox, Jenks closed out 173 games and provided 8.8 fWAR. In his career, he's struck out almost one batter per inning while walking 3.1 per nine.

Scott Atchison has spent the last two seasons as a serviceable member of the Boston pen. He's not a big strikeout guy, but he has good control and last season he didn't allow a home run in 30 and a third innings (his career rate is still 1.1 per nine). He'll likely eat up a bunch of low-pressure innings in 2012.

Matt Albers, a 28-year-old right hander, showed signs of improvement in 2011, as his strikeout rate jumped from the mid-teens with Baltimore to 23.5 percent. His walk rate, home run rate, and other performance indicators generally stabilized around career norms. While the increase in strikeouts is encouraging, Albers has pitched 382 major league innings to a 1.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He'll probably be used sparingly in high-leverage spots.

Michael Bowden was a starter and a perennial Baseball America top 100 prospect through his minor league career, but he switched to the bullpen in 2010. Last season in Triple-A Pawtucket, Bowden K'ed 28 percent while walking just eight percent, showing aptitude as a reliever. He's thrown 56 and a third innings in the majors, primarily out of the Red Sox bullpen, and while the results haven't been too pretty (a 5.75 ERA), his peripherals have been good enough to offer hope.

Left-handed duties will likely go to Morales and Felix Doubront. Morales, acquired from Colorado in May of 2011, posted a career-best 2.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 32 and a third innings for Boston. In his career, he's been far more stingy against lefties, holding them to a .201/.300/.362 line in 236 PAs (righties have hit .272/.371/.418 against him). Slender lefty Felix Doubront started 131 of 134 games in the minors, but so far in 35 and a third major league innings he's been used primarily in relief, and that's likely where he'll find himself in 2012.

Overall, the Boston bullpen probably won't be quite as good in 2012 as it was last year. The Red Sox have to replace two guys in Papelbon and Bard projected to each post 3.13 ERAs in the pen, via our Hardball Times Forecasts (check them out!). It'd be surprising if Bailey and Melancon are able to fully replace that production, both in terms of inning-by-inning performance and overall durability. Melancon, for instance, is projected to post a 4.12 ERA is 75 innings. The THT Forecasts like Bailey better, projecting a 3.18 ERA out of the right hander. However, because of health concerns and a lack of recent innings, it sees him throwing only 54 innings.

Still, the Red Sox are now able to try Bard in the rotation, and if he develops anywhere near as expected, he'll be far more valuable there. They also save a small fortune by letting Papelbon walk. Perhaps the biggest lesson learned in bullpen construction over the years is to do it cheaply, rarely committing long-term contracts to relief pitchers. There are so many ways to find good relievers (failed starters and closers on rebuilding teams, for example), it makes little sense for a team, even one as willing to spend as Boston, to commit four years and $50 million (at least) to one guy. Despite the departure of Papelbon, Boston's bullpen looks like it may still be a strength heading into 2012, and the Red Sox put it together for Lowrie, Reddick, and three middle-tier prospects.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Myron Logan 2012-01-05T09:14:15+00:00 Evaluating the Jed Hoyer era in San Diego http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/evaluating-jed-hoyers-brief-stay-in-san-diego/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/evaluating-jed-hoyers-brief-stay-in-san-diego/#When:09:31:15
Schooled at Ivy League-like Wesleyan University and brought up in the sabermetrically-inclined Red Sox front office, Hoyer is the embodiment of the new-school GM; savvy in analytics, yet still understanding the importance of scouting and development. Hoyer's resume is in stark contrast to Kevin Towers', who followed the more traditional player-coach-scout path in his rise to GM. Their styles differed, too. Towers was lauded for his shoot-from-the-hip approach, Hoyer seems to be more measured.

Hoyer, along with Jason McLeod (who also departed for Chicago) and staff, turned the Padres run-of-the-mill farm system into arguably one of the best in baseball in just two years. Hoyer used two solid drafts and a number of shrewd trades to compile a long list of top prospects. Further, he made a good number of astute moves at the major league level to make the Padres competitive, while holding onto all of the Padres' young assets. With Hoyer taking over a struggling Cubs franchise, it's time we look at his two years in San Diego to see if we can gather any information on what kind of GM he'll develop into.

2010 offseason transactions


Hoyer took over a 2009 Padres team that lacked an identity, outside of slugging first basemen Adrian Gonzalez. They finished the season 75-87, although they did go 36-25 after July. Frankly, the Padres were seen as a couple of years away, but Hoyer made a number of moves aimed at marginally improving the major league roster.

Padres sign shortstop Jerry Hairston Jr. to a one-year, $2.12 million deal

Signing Hairston was primarily due to his versatility. Hairston spent most of his time in 2010 up the middle at short and second, but also saw time in left field, right field and at third base. Two years removed from a career year in Cincinnati, Hairston hit just .244/.299/.353 in 476 plate appearances in San Diego. It wasn't a hugely successful move, by any means, but Hairston did provide adequate play and a veteran presence at short after Everth Cabrera had an injury-plagued, ineffective year.

Padres sign right-handed pitcher Jon Garland to a one-year, $5.3 million deal (plus mutual option)

Kevin Correia was the Padres best starting pitcher in 2009, throwing 198 average innings. That tells you just about all you need to know about the rotation in '09. There was potential in 2010 with young guys like Mat Latos, Wade LeBlanc and Clayton Richard, but the Padres rotation heading into 2010 still had a lot of questions marks.

In signing Garland, Hoyer added a durable arm to anchor the rotation; Garland had thrown at least 190 innings in eight consecutive years. Further, the price was great, as the Pads inked Garland for just over $5 million. Based on past performance, Garland could be reasonably expected to add two WAR in 2010, so the Padres were paying only $2.5 million per marginal win.

As anticipated, Garland hit 200 innings right on the nose, and did so in typical average fashion (106 ERA+). His strikeout and walk rates of 6.1 and 3.9 respectively were actually a bit higher than his career norms, but overall it was a pretty typical year for Garland.

As GM of the Padres, Hoyer was going to have to shop for bargains on the free agent market, and his first real attempt was a promising start.

Padres sign catcher Yorvit Torrealba to one-year, $1.25 million deal (plus mutual option)

Like the Hairston move, this was a minor transaction. Torrealba did go on to have one of his better seasons in 2010, however, hitting .271/.343/.378 (103 OPS+) in 363 plate appearances. Torrealba actually improved his raw numbers from his previous four seasons with the Colorado Rockies. Considering the differences in Coors Field and Petco Park, that tells you a lot about how surprising his year was.

Again, it's a small move, but it helped to show that Hoyer was adept at piecing together a roster on a budget.

2010 in-season transactions


Thanks to the emergence of starting pitchers like Latos and Richard, a lights-out bullpen and Gonzalez, the Padres found themselves in unexpected territory by midseason 2010: On Aug. 28, the Padres were 76-52, six games up in the National League West. This was a team that was almost unanimously picked to finish near the cellar in the NL West. Somehow they road a hot April all the way through the trade deadline, providing Hoyer with a chance to make a definitive move to help assure the Padres a playoff spot.

Padres acquire Miguel Tejada from Baltimore Orioles for right-hander Wynn Pelzer

The Padres had issues all year at shortstop. Cabrera, a Rule 5 pick who hit a respectable .255/.342/.361 (438 PA) in 2009, looked completely lost in 2010. He hit .208/.279/.278 in 241 PA and combined with injury troubles couldn't be relied upon as an everyday shortstop on a playoff contender. The aforementioned Hairston is a nice role player, but not a guy you want to send out there every day.

Tejada was a shell of his former self at this point, of course, but he was still an average hitter who could hold his own at short. Tejada was suffering through his worst season since the late '90s, hitting .269/.308/.362 (428 PA) in Baltimore. He was rejuvenated in San Diego, finishing the year with a .268/.317/.413 line in 253 plate appearances for the Padres.

While acquiring Tejada was not a particularly bold move, the key here is that Hoyer gave up very little. Pelzer was a middling relief prospect who spent most of 2010 and 2011 in Double-A putting up middling numbers. He's now 25 and doesn't look like he'll be much of a contributor at the major league level.

Padres acquire right fielder Ryan Ludwick from St. Louis for left-hander Nick Greenwood and right-hander Corey Kluber (sent to Cleveland Indians)

Hoyer wasn't finished trying to improve the Padres offense, picking up Ludwick in a three-team trade with the Cardinals and Indians. Since peaking in 2008 with the Cards (he OPSed .966 that year), Ludwick came back to earth in the following seasons. In 2010, he was hitting .282/.343/.484 at the time of the trade. At first glance, this looked like a really solid deal for the Padres. Ludwick would instantly become the Padres second best offensive threat, sliding right into the middle of the lineup.

Or so the Padres hoped. Ludwick simply never got it going in San Diego, hitting .211/.301/.330 in 239 late-season plate appearances. While he was supposed to push the Padres into the playoffs, there's little doubt Ludwick did more to keep them out, performing at or below replacement level.

Ludwick would stay on with the Padres in 2011, making $6.78 million (second on the team) and hitting much like he did down the stretch in 2010 (.238/.301/.373). He was flipped to the Pittsburgh Pirates at the trade deadline for a PTBNL.

The only positive here is that, again, Hoyer didn't give away much for the rights to Ludwick. Neither Greenwood or Kluber are highly regarded prospects and, while both have a chance to contribute at the major league level, they aren't big losses in a deep San Diego system.

Still, picking up Ludwick and Tejada did little to push the Padres into the postseason (they collapsed down the stretch and lost the NL West crown to the Giants). If you're going to credit Hoyer with Garland and Torrealba type moves, you have to dock him here. On a more positive note, perhaps Hoyer knew these Padres weren't quite the real deal, and didn't want to invest too much into a late-season run.

Overall, Hoyer's first season in San Diego has to be looked upon as a relative success. While most of the key parts to the 2010 team were in place before his tenure began, he still made a number of good moves to improve the team. His deadline acquisitions didn't push the Padres over the top, but he also didn't sacrifice any real trade chips in the process.

2011 offseason transactions


The Padres entered the 2011 offseason in a tenuous position, coming off a very successful season in which they played over their heads for much of the year. Further, their best player, Gonzalez, now had only one year left under contract and there was little chance that he could be extended by San Diego.

Padres acquire center fielder Cameron Maybin from Florida Marlins for right-handers Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb

Hoyer started the offseason with one of his first signature moves, picking up an everyday center fielder for two relievers. When Maybin was acquired, there was some legitimate concern about his ability to start in the majors. He had hit just .246/.313/.380 (610 PA) in parts of four seasons with Detroit and Florida. He struck out 172 times in that period.

Still, there was a lot to be excited about. Maybin reached the major leagues with the Tigers at age 20, and he was a consensus top-rated prospect since the time he was drafted. Maybin had always raked in the minors as well, putting up a career .305/.393/.477 line while always young for his league. Perhaps most importantly, Maybin wouldn't be arbitration-eligible until 2013, so the Padres would have him under control for five years.

In 2011, Maybin would prove himself one of the most valuable Padres, hitting .264/.323/.393 (40 steals) in the starting center field role. He also showed that he could hold his own in center, rating well by both UZR (+9.5 runs) and DRS (+12). Those numbers will likely regress going forward. but it's not hard to see Maybin as an above-average defender through his prime.

Somehow Hoyer was able to nab Maybin for two middle relievers. Mujica did show plenty of promise in 2010, posting a ridiculous 12-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 69.7 innings. Still, he just couldn't put it all together, because of major issues with the long ball (37 homers in 233.3 career innings, before moving to Florida). He was a rock in the Marlins pen in 2011, putting up a 2.96 ERA in 76 innings of relief. He only allowed seven homers, though his strikeout-to-walk ratio regressed to a more believable 4.5-1. The Marlins control Mujica through 2013.

On the Padres' end, there was more concern about losing Webb, a 6-foot-6 right hander who looked very promising coming out of the San Diego bullpen as a youngster. His strikeout and walk rates (6.7 per nine and 3.2 per nine, respectively) weren't that impressive in San Diego, but Webb's a ground-ball specialist (61 percent) and unlike Mujica he doesn't allow home runs. He had a nice year in 2011 for Florida, working 50.7 innings to a 3.20 ERA, allowing just two homers. There's not a lot of upside, but he should be a mainstay in the Marlins pen and he's under control through 2015.

Hoyer had to give up some value here, but he still only dealt two middle relievers for a potential cornerstone player. With the Padres organizationally deep in relief talent, it was really a no-brainer and a move a team like San Diego has to make every time. Depending on how Maybin develops, it could go down as one of Hoyer's biggest coups.

Padres acquire right-hander Casey Kelly, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, center fielder Reymond Fuentes and third baseman Eric Patterson from Boston for Gonzalez

Hoyer and the Padres were in a particularly tough situation regarding what to do with Gonzalez. He had clearly developed into a franchise player, but he had only one year remaining (for an all-too-reasonable $6 million) on his contract and it was going to be virtually impossible for the Padres to sign him long-term in San Diego. With that in mind, Hoyer and company had to make the decision whether to deal Gonzalez in the offseason, at the trade-deadline, or hold onto him for the entire season and pick up some draft picks.

They decided to deal him in the offseason to the Red Sox for three prospects (Patterson was a throw-in who contributed very little in 2011).

Rizzo is an athletic, left-hand hitting first basemen. He came over as a highly touted prospect who had put up solid-if-not-spectacular numbers in the Red Sox system. In 2011, he had a break-out campaign at Triple-A Tucson, hitting .331/.404/.652 and bombing 26 home runs in only 413 plate appearances. Rizzo did this all at the age of 21.

He was called-up to the bigs late in the season but struggled, hitting .141/.281/.242 (153 PA). With the upheaval in the Padres front office and the recent acquisition of first base prospect Yonder Alonso, there are serious questions about Rizzo's place in the organization. Before the big Latos trade, Rizzo was ranked as the Padres' best prospect by Baseball America and sixth by Kevin Goldstein.

A former shortstop, Kelly is an athletic right-handed starter. After struggling in Double-A in 2010, Kelly repeated the level in the Padres organization in 2011 and had much better results. However, despite the big drop in ERA (from 5.31 to 3.98), Kelly's peripherals didn't improve much in San Diego, and there are concerns about his relatively low strikeout numbers. His career minor league strikeout-per-nine is 7.0 and last year it dipped to 6.6. Kelly is ranked third in the Padres organization by Baseball America and seventh by Kevin Goldstein.

While not rated as highly on prospect lists, Fuentes may have more upside than either Rizzo or Kelly. He'll turn just 21 in February, and he's proven he can handle every level so far, putting up a career .275/.335/.373 minor league line. He obviously has to develop more with the bat, but Fuentes' speed and athleticism in center will give him every chance to do that.

Hoyer had to turn Gonzalez into something of value, and he did that in acquiring two bona fide top prospects and a young center fielder with good potential. Considering Gonzalez only had one year remaining on his contract, this has to be looked at as a pretty good haul. This move along with the later Mike Adams flip to the Texas Rangers went a long way toward restocking a solid, yet underwhelming Padres farm system.

Padres sign right-hander Aaron Harang to a one-year, $4 million deal (plus mutual option)

Harang was coming off a career-worst season in 2010, pitching to a 5.32 ERA in 111.2 innings. Still, it was a pretty nice pick-up, as Harang recorded a 111 ERA+ and a 3.5-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his previous five years in Cincinnati. He was certainly an injury and performance risk coming into 2011, but $4 million is peanuts on the free agent market and it appeared to be a pretty good gamble by Hoyer and the Padres.

In 2011, Harang was a staple in the San Diego rotation, throwing 170.2 innings to a near league-average (Petco-adjusted) 3.64 ERA. Harang's peripherals remained almost identical to his poor 2010 season, but his BABIP dropped from .338 to .302, helping to produce much better results.

Like the Garland signing, acquiring Harang again showed Hoyer's ability to make astute moves on the free agent market on an extremely limited budget.

Padres acquire shortstop Jason Bartlett from Tampa Bay Rays for right-handers Brandon Gomes and Adam Russell, lefty Cesar Ramos and second baseman Cole Figueroa

The Padres clearly needed to shore up their middle infield going into 2011, and this was their first of two (failed) attempts at doing that. Bartlett had a career year in 2009 when he OPSed .879 in 567 plate appearances with the Rays. The rest of his career can be described as mediocre at best. In 2011 he was less-than-mediocre, hitting .245/.308/.307 in 618 PA for the Padres. Bartlett's defense at short was adequate, but it wasn't enough to make up for the putrid offense. Overall, he just didn't provide the answer at short. Bartlett made $4 million in 2011 and he's due $5.5 million in 2012 (with a $5.5 million club option in 2013, $1.5 million buyout).

The Padres didn't give up any top prospects in this deal, but they did send a couple of intriguing pieces Tampa Bay's way.

Of the relievers, Gomes clearly offers the most potential. He recorded a 2.92 ERA in 37 innings in the 2011 Rays pen, striking out 32, walking 16, and allowing three home runs. He's posted some gaudy numbers in the minors and has a chance to stick around in the Rays pen.

Figueroa, 24, has very good on-base skills. In more than 1,500 minor league plate appearances, he's put up a .292/.390/.393 line. He's shown great control of the strike zone with 203 walks to just 163 strikeouts. With a solid defensive rap, Figueroa has a chance to develop into an everyday second baseman.

Russell is a 6-foot-8 middle reliever with some serious control issues. In the Tampa Bay bullpen in 2011, he walked 20 and struck out just 13 in 32.7 innings. Ramos, 27, is another middle reliever. Ramos was slightly better in the Rays pen, throwing 43.2 innings while striking out 31 and walking 25.

Hoyer didn't get the best of Andrew Friedman and the Rays here. While it looked like a potentially okay move at the time, one could easily prefer Figueroa to Bartlett right now, salaries considered. Throw in the other three guys, especially Gomes, and Tampa Bay definitely wins this deal. Still, it was by no means a terrible move, and Hoyer again managed to hold onto all significant prospects.

Padres sign Orlando Hudson to a two-year, $11.5 million deal (plus 2013 club option)

Second baseman Hudson had a decent year in 2011, hitting .246/.329/.352 in 454 plate appearances while playing acceptable defense. He was worth from one to two WAR, depending on your source. On the free-agent market, paying $5-6 million a year for that kind of production isn't too bad a deal.

One might wonder why Hudson, a fan favorite and apparent clubhouse guy, couldn't bring in a few more dollars as a free agent. Well, as it turns out, in one season he went from fan favorite, good clubhouse guy to malcontent. He got into it with some fans on Twitter about booing the team and apparently didn't have the kind of attitude you'd expect from a leader in the clubhouse.

Overall, this wasn't a good move, despite the semi-favorable contract, and unless the Padres can unload Hudson this offseason it appears they will be stuck with him for another year.

2011 in-season transactions


Padres acquire right-hander Joe Wieland and left-hander Robbie Erlin for right-handed relief pitcher Mike Adams

Before bidding us adieu a few months later, Hoyer pulled off one of his finest moves, picking up two quality starting pitching prospects for one reliever.

Adams is a shut-down reliever who has put up a career 2.11 ERA in 311.1 innings in the majors. He's K'ed 9.3 per nine, walked 2.6 per nine, and given up .7 homers per nine in his career. He was excellent for the Rangers down the stretch, posting a five-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio in 25.2 innings. He did struggle a bit in limited postseason innings, but overall the Rangers got what they expected out of Adams. They have him under control for 2012, Adams' final year of arbitration.

Hoyer was again dealing from a position a strength here, with Heath Bell, Luke Gregerson and Ernesto Frieri in the pen and a seemingly endless supply of capable bullpen arms in the organization. Further, the Padres were out of it at the deadline, and a non-contending team doesn't need a guy like Mike Adams.

One would think a reliever of Adams' quality would net a solid prospect, but Hoyer got two.

Wieland, 21, had a breakout year of sorts in 2011, with a 1.97 ERA in 155.7 innings split between High-A and Double-A. Wieland struck out 150, walked just 21, and gave up nine home runs. That's a seven-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio. Wieland was recently ranked seventh on Baseball America's top Padres prospects and fifth by Goldstein.

Lefty Erlin is almost a year younger than Wieland and also had a very fine year split between High-A and Double-A ball in 2011. Erlin threw 147.1 innings to a 2.99 ERA in 2011, striking out 154, walking a minuscule 16, and surrendering 18 homers. That's over nine strikeouts to every walk, to one-up Wieland. Erlin is ranked eighth by Baseball America and second by Goldstein.

Both prospects offer a similar long term outlook, and both have potential to be middle-of-the-rotation starters for the Padres by 2013. Adams is a very nice reliever, but like the Cameron Maybin trade, this is one the Padres have to make every time. Hoyer's final major transaction has a chance to go down as his best overall move.

A final review
Hoyer's lasting impact on the Padres organization will be the infusion of talent at the minor league level. Along with the trades that sent prospects to the Padres, Hoyer, McLeod and company also added plenty of talent in the draft. So far, it looks like the 2011 draft might be the better of the two, adding players like second baseman Cory Spangenberg, right-hander Joe Ross and catcher Austin Hedges, who have already established themselves as bona fide prospects among scouts. In 2010, the Padres drafted right-hander Karsten Whitson in the first round (ninth overall) but failed to sign him. They did add promising prospects like third baseman Jedd Gyorko and right-hander John Barbato later on.

If you look at Baseball America's or Goldstein's top Padres prospects, a remarkable eight out of 10 were acquired under Hoyer, who transformed a system that had depth but few established prospects into one of the best systems in the game. Now guys like outfielders Jaff Decker and Donavan Tate and right-hander Simon Castro, formerly very highly touted in the Padres system, are almost forgotten amid the influx in talent.

Hoyer's moves at the major league level are more of a mixed bag. The good: Garland, Harang, Maybin. The bad: Hudson, Bartlett, Ludwick. Hoyer did prove he could assemble a solid roster on a limited budget, though obviously all of his moves didn't pan out. He also failed to add a key contributor at the deadline in 2010, and the Padres missed out on the playoffs despite a six-game late-July lead. One could use that as a knock against him.

Overall, Hoyer's vision of the big picture has to be what was most appealing about his time in San Diego. In his two years he never dealt a highly rated prospect in turn for major league talent. And, as we've discussed in detail, he added a ton of young talent into the organization.

Every situation is different, obviously, but Chicago Cubs fans should have good faith in Hoyer. While the Cubs may not be competitive in year one or two, it'd be surprising if they weren't a contending team within a few seasons. It won't hurt that Theo Epstein will be looking over his shoulder.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Myron Logan 2011-12-22T09:31:15+00:00 Reviewing the indefensibles http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/reviewing-five-indefensible-deals/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/reviewing-five-indefensible-deals/#When:09:33:15 analyzed some of the worst deals of last offseason. More than one year of performance is needed to fully evaluate a deal, but that won't stop us from trying. We already reviewed the best moves of last offseason a few weeks ago. Now let's tackle the worst based on a single season.


Washington Nationals sign OF Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million deal


This one looked pretty bad in the offseason, and it didn't get off to a great start. After developing into a true offensive force in his final years in Philadelphia, Werth's performance was just mediocre in 2011. He hit .232/.330/.389 in 649 plate appearances with the Nationals, dropping significantly from his .296/.388/.532 breakout campaign in 2010 with the Phillies.

The good news for the Nationals is that while Werth's season wasn't seven-year, $126-million-dollar good, there are still some reasons for optimism. Werth wasn't that bad in 2011, recording WARs over two according to both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. He stayed healthy and played a bunch of games. His peripherals didn't crater. Werth's walk percentage (11.4) and strikeout percentage (24.7) were only down slightly from his established norms in Philadelphia.

His BABiP dropped to .286 from a career .324 mark. While hitters control their BABiP to a large extent, there's still plenty of fluctuation from a year-to-year basis. There's a good chance Werth's BABiP will creep back above .300 in 2012, and with that his batting average will rise. He also remained a base-stealing threat, going 19-for-22 on steal attempts. (He is a remarkable 96-110 in his career.)

Let's face it, though, if this move didn't look good last offseason, it certainly doesn't look good now. Werth made just $10.5 million last season; he'll start to really rake in the dollars over the next six years ($112 million of them, to be exact). Average offense from a corner outfielder just isn't going to cut it at those dollar marks. While Werth is a good bet to bounce back next season, it's still hard to see him putting up the kind of numbers in his mid-to-late thirties that will justify this contract.


Los Angeles Angels acquire OF Vernon Wells from Toronto Blue Jays for C Mike Napoli and OF Juan Rivera


Like the Werth move, this one has turned out even worse than you might expect for the Angels. Wells runs hot and cold with the bat, and this happened to be an ice cold year for him. He hit just .218/.248/.412 in 529 PA in Los Angeles. In 2010, Wells was a solid offensive contributor, hitting .273/.331/.515 in his last of twelve seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays. Further hurting his value, Wells no longer patrols center field, and his defense in general has been in gradual decline.

Wells will turn 33 on December 8th, and the Angels will owe him $63 million over the next three years. In other words, they are going to be paying him like a star player, while his performance in two out of the last three seasons has been right around replacement level.

Wells has the potential to turn it around. In fact, he's been flip-flopping between productive and non-productive offensive campaigns since 2006. What's worrisome is that his walk percentage (3.8) and strikeout percentage (16.3) were both career worsts in 2011. His BABiP also fell to an unforeseen level (.214), likely aided by a lot of fly balls (48 percent) and not many line drives (12 percent).

Like with any down season from an established player, there's a good likelihood that Wells will rebound to some degree in 2012 and beyond. Still, he won't approach a $21 million-a-year level in his mid-thirties.

To make matters worse, Napoli went on to have a breakout year with the Texas Rangers. (He was dealt from Toronto to Texas for Frank Francisco before the season started.) Napoli never seemed a good fit in Los Angeles despite producing some pretty gaudy offensive numbers for a catcher.

In Texas, he hit .320/.414/.631, popping 30 home runs in just 432 PA. He also had a tremendous postseason, as you might recall. Furthermore, he shut down the running game, allowing only 21 stolen bases all year and throwing out 36 percent of would-be base stealers.

Juan Rivera hit .258/.319/.382, splitting time with the Blue Jays and the Dodgers. He actually had a better year than Wells.

Frankly, this deal had disaster written all over it, and it looks even worse for the Angels heading into 2012.


New York Yankees sign Rafael Soriano to three-year, $35 million deal


The Yankees can outspend anybody, but that doesn't make every dollar they invest a good one. They simply overpaid for relief pitching here.

Like anyone throwing baseballs upwards of 90 mph, Soriano has had some arm issues in the past. Elbow inflammation kept him on the DL for a few months last season, and Soriano was only able to pitch 39.3 innings. In those innings, he wasn't that effective, putting up a 4.12 ERA and a K/BB ratio of two (both career worsts for a full season).

Soriano still has the ability to be a productive set-up guy, but coming off an injury-plagued, somewhat ineffective campaign and heading into his age-32 season, it's far from a given. The $25 million that Soriano will make over the next two seasons will barely put a dent in the Yankee payroll, but it's still money that could be better spent, be it on bolstering the starting rotation, extending one of the Yanks' young players, or improving elsewhere.


Florida Marlins sign John Buck to three-year, $18 million deal


Following his best offensive season in 2010, Buck predictably came back to Earth a bit last season. He hit .227/.316/.367 in 530 PA and popping 16 home runs after hitting .281/.314/.489 in 2010. Despite that big drop in batting average, Buck actually increased his on-base percentage slightly, thanks to a career-high walk rate of 10 percent (up from four percent in 2010). He also cut down on his strikeouts and lost a good bit of power from his 2010 form and career norms.

Really, though, the signs aren't all bad here. His BABiP, which fell from .335 in 2010 (likely an unsustainable number for Buck) all the way to .268, should be expected to creep back towards Buck's career mark of .286.

As mentioned, he improved both his walk and strikeout rates in recent seasons, and there's a good chance that he can retain some of that going into next season. If Buck can find some of the power he had with the Blue Jays and Royals, he can provide very solid production from a backstop.

All of the sudden, with a new stadium on the way, the Marlins have already signed Jose Reyes and Heath Bell this offseason, and they're were seriously courting Albert Pujols, too. The $6 million they owe Buck in each of the next two seasons really doesn't look that bad at all, given the increase in their payroll and the idea that they should be competitive in the near future.

This deal is not a major one either way, but if Buck can build on last season's positives and be the starting catcher on a playoff-contending Marlins club, it's certainly a lot more acceptable than it initially looked.


New York Yankees sign Derek Jeter to three year, $51 million deal (plus a fourth year player option)


Not surprisingly, Jeter rebounded—albeit slightly—from a career-worst campaign in 2010. Thanks to a sharp increase in BABiP, his batting average rose to a more Jeter-esque level at .297. His walk, strikeout, and power numbers stayed relatively similar to his recent career norms, but thanks to that increase in batting average, his overall offensive value jumped.

Still, there are plenty of concerns. Even with the aforementioned jump in batting average, Jeter hit just .297/.355/.388. That's a relatively empty .297 average. Jeter is a shortstop, of course, and that production is far from a negative at that position (shortstops, as a group, hit .266/.321/.386 in the AL in 2011).

Then again, he's a shortstop, and his defense has never been a strength. One-year samples are not all that meaningful alone, but his performance by the advanced metrics followed a career-long trend. UZR had him at -6.5 runs in 2011, while DRS pegged him at 18 runs below average. We can't expect Jeter's defense to improve over the life of this deal, regardless of whether you believe he's been properly valued in the past.

Further, Jeter missed a lot of time in 2011, hurting his overall value. He played in only 131 games last season, his lowest total since 2003 when he suffered a shoulder injury on Opening Day and played in just 119 games.

Let's face it, Derek Jeter has had a Hall of Fame career, but he simply doesn't possess $16-17 million in on-field value anymore. The Yankees likely knew that going in but really had no choice but to bring back the iconic shortstop.

Considering his off-field value as the face of the Yankees and his ability to still hold his own on the diamond, he may come close to, or even surpass, his contract. With that in mind, this is an admittedly controversial contract, and it's probably tough to classify it as "indefensible" at this point.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Myron Logan 2011-12-08T09:33:15+00:00 Offseason decisions: Should the Padres rebuild? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/offseason-decisions-should-the-padres-rebuild/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/offseason-decisions-should-the-padres-rebuild/#When:09:30:15 One of a series on dilemmas facing major league teams this winter.

The San Diego Padres offseason has started in disarray, with General Manager Jed Hoyer and Assistant GM Jason McLeod joining Theo Epstein and the Chicago Cubs. It came as a bit of a surprise, naturally, as it looked like the young Jed Hoyer would be the Padres GM for the long haul.

Hoyer’s first year (2010) was a big success, as the surprise Padres went 90-72 and just barely missed out on the playoffs. Much of that team was composed of players left over from the Kevin Towers regime, but Hoyer made a number of astute, under-the-radar moves, and the Padres blew away expectations. Last year was more of a struggle, as the Padres went 71-91 in their first season since 2005 without Adrian Gonzalez at first base.

Hoyer tried for the best of both worlds, dealing Gonzalez to the Boston Red Sox for prospects while still trying to put together a competitive ball club at the major league level. This time, however, the offseason moves (signing Orlando Hudson and trading for Jason Bartlett, for example) didn’t work out as well, and the Padres offense could not even muster 600 runs.

Perhaps more importantly, though, it appeared that San Diego was headed in the right direction. The farm system was in good hands, with solid drafts and prospects coming in from various trades (most notably, the Gonzalez and Mike Adams deals).

Hoyer, groomed under Epstein in Boston, understood the importance of having a long-term plan and building through the farm system. McLeod, who also came over from Boston, where he was the Director of Amateur Scouting, was crucial in restocking the Padres farm system.

After Hoyer left for the Cubs, the Padres promoted Josh Byrnes to the vacated GM position. Byrnes has nearly five years' experience in the role, as he was the Arizona Diamondbacks GM from December of 2005 through July of 2010. Byrnes has a similar background to Hoyer, making for a relatively smooth transition. Further, Byrnes has a good working relationship with Padres owner Jeff Moorad, who was a partial owner of the Diamondbacks during Byrnes' tenure there..

The case to rebuild

Right now, the Padres simply aren’t that good. Over the last four years, they’ve averaged just 75 wins per season. The 2010 season in which San Diego won 90 games was largely looked at as a fluke, and when you look at that roster and the performances surrounding that year, it is certainly a plausible explanation. Not to mention, the anchor of that team, Gonzalez, now resides in Boston.

When you look at the Padres roster now, it’s a bit thin all around. The bullpen, which was a clear strength last year, will be without two of its best weapons. Adams was traded to the Texas Rangers last season, and Heath Bell is a free agent and likely will not return to San Diego in 2012.

The starting rotation has Mat Latos, who will be just 24 and still has a chance to develop into a true ace pitcher. His ERA ballooned into the mid-threes last season (not overly impressive in Petco) after a very solid 2010 campaign, but his excellent peripherals stayed intact—he averaged 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 0.7 HR/9.

The rest of the staff, however, is composed of interchangeable, middle-to-back of the rotation guys like Tim Stauffer, Dustin Moseley (season-ending, non-throwing shoulder surgery in August), Clayton Richard (season-ending shoulder surgery in July), and Cory Luebke.

The offense was terrible last season, hitting a combined .237/.305/.349 and scoring just 593 runs. The bright spots were catcher Nick Hundley, first baseman Jesus Guzman, third baseman Chase Headley, and center fielder Cameron Maybin. That’s really it. Will Venable has shown he’s pretty much a league-average hitter playing in right field. The middle infield of Bartlett and Hudson couldn’t hit a lick, and their defense certainly didn’t make up for it.

There is potential talent to be found, for sure. First baseman/left fielder Kyle Blanks bounced back last season and hit .229/.300/.406 in 190 plate appearances (following a disastrous 2010 campaign), and he mashed in his debut 2009 season (.250/.355/.514).

First basemen Anthony Rizzo struggled in the majors, hitting .141/.281/.242 in 153 PA, but he has raked throughout his minor league career and remains one of the Padres best prospects.

Shortstop Everth Cabrera had a nice year in Triple-A Tucson, putting up a .297/.370/.402 line with 29 steals in just 58 games. Cabrera had a breakout rookie season (.255/.342/.361, 438 PA) in 2009 after coming over from the Colorado Rockies in the Rule 5 draft but was plagued by injuries and severe regression to the mean in 2010.

In short, though, the Padres just aren’t built to win right now. Sure, they could catch lighting in a bottle again, but the chances aren’t all that likely. It appears they are at least a year or two away from seriously competing.

The current state of the San Diego farm system, however, is excellent. The Padres have a diverse group of talent that has been built over the last few years. They have high-quality prospects all over the diamond and at all stages of development. The aforementioned Rizzo and RHP Casey Kelly are very close to contributing at the major league level, while outfielders Reymond Fuentes and Donavan Tate offer lots of potential but are years away. Those are just a few names.

The state of the Padres organization right now points to a rebuilding effort. There’s really no reason to go all in and try to win next season. The payroll is still quite low as the ownership transition continues and, as we’ve mentioned, the roster isn’t quite there yet.

The majority of the Padres major league core will be in arbitration by 2013 and 2014, and by then a number of prospects should be ready to contribute to the big club. Most of the organization's efforts should be put into building a winner from 2013 on.

The case not to rebuild

One could argue that the Padres have already done most of their rebuilding under Hoyer. He traded assets like Gonzalez and Adams to beef up the minor league system, and the Padres have drafted well over the past few years. They haven’t made any large investments at the major league level. In fact, they have nobody signed to a long-term contract. This gives them a lot of flexibility.

Perhaps San Diego should make a bit of a splash this season and fill in some holes. Maybe there’s no reason to throw away a season. After all, it’s certainly not something you want to do. Padres fans, outside of 2010, haven’t had a whole lot to cheer about in the recent past, and another lost season is never desirable.

Even if the Padres went out a signed a free-agent to a lengthy deal or made a big trade to bring in some MLB talent, it wouldn’t mean they'd have to go all in. They still would have a solid young nucleus and a slew of prospects on the way.

The National League West is a tough, yet always winnable, division, and the Padres are just one year removed from a 90-win season. The St. Louis Cardinals have won two recent World Series with teams that averaged 87 regular-season wins.

Further, who is to say that a rebuilding effort will pay off? There are teams that have been in a rebuilding state for years, if not decades, without putting together a serious contender. Putting all of your eggs into prospects is always dangerous. There’s a lot that can go wrong.

The conclusion: a hybrid approach

As we’ve talked about, Hoyer and company helped resurrect the Padres minor league system while still trying to put a winner on the field. For the short term, I think that’s the direction the Padres should take.

In 2010, Hoyer made a number of small deals, like signing Yorvit Torrealba and Jon Garland. The Padres got off to a great start and nearly hung on for a playoffs spot.

Last season, Hoyer made a bunch of moves. He dealt Gonzalez to the Red Sox for prospects, traded for Maybin and Bartlett and signed players like Hudson and Brad Hawpe. Unfortunately, outside of Maybin, none of the major league acquisitions really worked out as planed, and the Padres struggled to a last-place finish.

Hoyer was vigilant about holding onto all significant prospects, never including them in any trades for big league talent. Thanks to a build-from-within philosophy, the Padres now have a stacked farm system and were still able to compete in 2010.

This season, the Padres should try to build a solid roster with short-term, low-risk deals or trades while building toward a successful run in the middle part of the decade. They don’t need to tank a season; they’ve already accomplished most of the rebuilding. Still, they don’t need to go all out to put together a true contender until all their chips are in place.



Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Myron Logan 2011-11-23T09:30:15+00:00 A look back at the best moves of last offseason http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-look-back-at-the-best-moves-of-last-offseason/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-look-back-at-the-best-moves-of-last-offseason/#When:10:01:15 best and worst deals of the offseason. For the most part, you'll need more than one year to judge the merits of a move, but I figured it would be entertaining enough to check out the early returns. This time we’ll look at the (supposed-to-be) good deals. Later on, we’ll check out the bad ones.


Boston Red Sox acquire Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego Padres for right-handed pitcher Casey Kelly, 1B Anthony Rizzo, center fielder Reymond Fuentes, and center fielder-second baseman Eric Patterson

This one will obviously take a couple of years to fully evaluate, as the Boston Red Sox signed Gonzalez to a hefty seven year, $154 million contract extension in April. Gonzalez delivered about all you could expect, hitting .338/.410/.548 in 714 plate appearances while playing a superb first base. His .338 batting average and .410 slugging percentage were career highs. Gonzalez surely enjoyed getting out of Petco Park and into Fenway, though his home run rate dipped to a career low.

It wasn’t all roses in Boston, though, as Evan Longoria’s walk-off capped a September collapse that kept the Red Sox out of the playoffs for the second straight year. You can’t fault Gonzalez for the collapse (it was largely the pitching, anyway), but it sure doesn’t leave a good taste in your mouth.

The Red Sox and Gonzalez reached the aforementioned seven-year, $154 million deal that makes Gonzalez the highest-paid current Red Sock.
Year Proj. WAR Proj. $/WAR Proj. Value Act. Salary
2012 6.0 5.0 30.0 21.0
2013 5.5 5.3 29.2 21.0
2014 5.0 5.6 28.0 21.0
2015 4.5 5.9 26.6 21.0
2016 4.0 6.2 24.8 21.0
2017 3.5 6.5 22.8 21.5
2018 3.0 6.8 20.4 21.5

It looks like the Red Sox signed Gonzalez to a very team-friendly extension. Of course, we may be a bit aggressive with Gonzalez’s projected WAR or our $/WAR numbers, but overall it looks like Boston may have gotten Gonzalez at an under-market price.

The San Diego Padres acquired three prospects in the deal. Kelly had a solid year in Double-A, pitching 142.3 innings with a 3.98 ERA. He walked only 46 and allowed eight home runs, but his 6.6 strikeout rate is a bit worrisome.

First basemen Rizzo raked in Triple-A Tucson, hitting .331/.404/.652. He had 61 extra base hits in 413 PA. Rizzo was promoted to the big club and scuffled mightily, hitting .141/.282/.242 in 153 PA. There’s not much to like there except the sample size (the walk rate isn’t bad, either). Rizzo will have ample time to prove himself in San Diego and, overall, his first season with the Padres has to be viewed as a success.

Center fielder Fuentes had a relatively uninspiring season at High-A Lake Elsinore, putting up a .275/.342/.369 line (almost right on his career minor league marks). He has a lot of speed and the defensive chops to handle center, but at some point he’s going to have to show that he can handle minor league pitching. Fuentes will be just 21 in February, so he’ll have plenty of time to develop, and he remains a sleeper in this blockbuster deal.

Overall, it’s impossible to give this move any type of final judgment. It’s a long-term deal, and at this point I’d imagine both teams are satisfied with the early results.


Chicago White Sox sign Adam Dunn to four-year, $56 million deal

Okay, this is a long-term deal too, but this one got off to a disastrous start. Dunn hit .159/.292/.277 in 496 plate appearances for the 79-83 White Sox, shocking numbers for a guy who has been so consistent for so long (all while moving into home run-friendly U.S. Cellular Field).

Dunn had recorded wOBAs between .353 and .403 during his first 10 seasons. In 2011, his wOBA was .266. That’s like Christian Guzman—2005 Nationals bad. He was three wins below replacement level; that is, you know, three wins worse than freely available talent. Dunn cost $12 million.

Attempting to evaluate his struggles probably would be silly without plenty of video tape and detailed pitch data, but in looking at the results, his strikeout rate (which has always been very high) skyrocketed to 36 percent. His previous high was 31 percent (2010), but usually he sits in the mid-to-high twenties.

Even when he made contact, however, there wasn’t much good to come, as his BABIP was .240 and his ISO was .118 (career low, by far). Dunn simply collapsed as a hitter last year. On defense, he’s a DH who occasionally plays first base.

While the White Sox likely wouldn’t have made the playoffs even with normal Dunn production, they may have competed. Had he produced as expected, they arguably could have picked up four or five wins at least, putting them in the mid-eighties. It’s not hard to see things turning out a bit differently, perhaps allowing the White Sox to compete for the Wild Card with Tampa Bay and Boston.

Dunn still has three years to turn things around, and I certainly anticipate that he’ll come back with some solid offensive years. Still, it’s hard to see this move ending up a positive one. Dunn will really have to get back to mashing for that to happen.


San Diego Padres sign Orlando Hudson to a two-year, $11.5 million deal (plus $8 million mutual option)

Hudson performed about as expected in 2011, hitting .246/.329/.352 in 119 games, worth anywhere from 1-2 WAR depending on how you evaluate his defense. His offense was down a little, even accounting for PETCO, but not far off for a 33-year-old second basemen working on a bargain deal.

Hudson made only $4 million last season. If he was a 1.5 WAR player, the Padres paid just $2.7 million per win for his services, a deal you won’t often find on the free agent market. He’ll make just $5.5 million next year and has an $8 million option for 2013 ($2 million buyout).

That said, there’s nothing too sexy about this deal. Hudson would be far more useful on a competitive team, and that’s how I evaluated the move. The Padres disappointed last season, finishing 71-91 and while Hudson is still a good value, he just doesn’t have that much appeal on a cellar-dwelling ballclub. Looking back, the trade to acquire Cameron Maybin from the Florida Marlins, a potential long-term solution in center field, would have been a better fit here.


Kansas City Royals acquire shortstop Alcides Escobar, outfielder Lorenzo Cain and right-handed pitchers Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi from Milwaukee Brewers for right-hander Zack Greinke (and Yuniesky Betancourt)

Like the Adrian Gonzalez trade, it’ll take years until we reach a verdict here. The Royals, seemingly in a constant state of rebuilding, traded ace pitcher Greinke for four young players.

At 24, Escobar started at short in 156 games for the last-place Royals. He hit a pedestrian .254/.290/.343, adding 26 steals (in 35 attempts). In parts of three seasons for Milwaukee, Escobar hit .250/.298/.335. His offense didn’t really develop any in his first season with KC, which is a bit of a concern.

There are plenty of positives with Escobar, though. First, he’s only 24 and he’s already played in 350 major league games. He’s clearly talented, and his best years should come in the near future. Second, he’s great defensively at short, both by the scouting reports and the numbers. UZR, for example, had him at +10 runs last year (+12.5 for his career). Finally, he’s under contract through 2015 and doesn’t reach arbitration until 2013.

Outfielder Cain (25), spent most of the year with Triple-A Omaha, hitting .312/.380/.497. After a solid major league debut in 2010 with the Brewers, Cain only played in six MLB games last year. Those are solid numbers he put up in Triple-A, but it’s hard to get too excited until Cain gets another chance to face MLB pitching.

Right-hander Jeffress did not have a good year in the minors. He posted a 4.26 ERA in 31.7 innings as a starter in Double-A, but he did so while walking 22 and striking out 20. In 24 innings at Triple-A (primarily as a reliever), the bad peripherals caught up to him, and he recorded a 7.12 ERA.

He did pitch 15.3 innings for the Royals in April and May, putting up a 4.70 ERA with 13 whiffs, 11 walks, and one home run allowed. Clearly, he has some positive attributes, but he’ll have to get that walk rate down to become effective in the majors.

The other arm picked up in the deal, right-hander Odorizzi, had an excellent stint at High-A Wilmington. He struck out 103, walked 22, and allowed four home runs in 78.3 innings (2.87 ERA). In Double-A, he regressed a bit, striking out 54, walking 22, and allowing 13 homers in 68.7 innings (4.72 ERA). It will be interesting to watch Odorizzi’s peripherals as he continues to rise towards the majors. So far, though, he’s put up a very impressive minor league resume.

The Brewers cashed in four promising players for the rights to two years of Greinke. He proceeded by helping lead them to 96 wins and their first division crown since joining the National League in 1998. He was quite unlucky runs-wise, giving up a 3.83 ERA in 171.7 innings. He fanned 10.5 per nine, walked just 2.4, and gave up one home run per nine innings.

His FIP was 2.98 (xFIP 2.56). His WAR could be calculated as high as four or as low as 1.7, depending on what stats you use (regular ERA or a FIP-like number). Still, Greinke had a fine year and it would be surprising if the Brewers regret the trade at this point. It definitely has the potential to turn into a win-win move.


St. Louis Cardinals sign outfielder Lance Berkman to a one year, $8 million deal

Well, we hit this one out of the park. After struggling in 2010 with the Astros and Yankees (.248/.366/.413), Berkman returned to form in 2011, putting up a .301/.412/.547 line in 587 plate appearances. In fact, Berkman recorded his highest OPS+ (166) … ever. Even taking into account his defense, he was a five-WAR player in 2011 and one of the catalysts to the St. Louis Cardinals' improbable World Series run.

To cap it off, Berkman had a great World Series (.423/.516/.577), including a season-saving single in the 10th inning of Game Six.

Really, you can’t credit St. Louis enough for taking a flyer on Berkman. The guy mashed every year since debuting in 1999, and thanks to a rough 2010, the Cards were able to pick him up at a very reasonable price. The Cardinals promptly resigned Berkman to a very reasonable one-year, $12 million deal for 2012.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Myron Logan 2011-11-09T10:01:15+00:00 Indefensible deals http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/indefensible-deals/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/indefensible-deals/#When:08:04:15 Naturally progressing from last time, when we looked at five of the best moves of the offseason, let’s take a look at five of the worst. Again, in no particular order, here’s a list you hope your favorite team doesn’t make.

Washington Nationals sign OF Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million deal

In perhaps the most shocking deal of the offseason, former Phillies and Dodgers outfielder Jayson Werth signed a blockbuster deal with Washington. The 31-year-old right fielder is coming off a breakout campaign, hitting .296/.388/.532 with 46 doubles (20 more than his previous career high). Werth is a great player, no doubt, providing value with the bat (.272/.367/.481 career line, trending upwards), on the bases (a Carlos Beltran-like 77-for-88 on steal attempts), and with the glove (he’s generally regarded as a good fielder, and advanced metrics agree).

Still, there are two major issues with this deal. One, the length (and, naturally, total dollars). Two, the team and its current situation.

The Nationals will be paying Werth $18 million a year for his age-32 through age-38 seasons. That’s just a little bit dangerous, you know. Should Werth lose some of his speed or hand-eye coordination, suddenly he becomes a very run-of-the-mill outfielder making a very high salary. We can use some crude estimates to get a basic foundation for what Werth should be, ahem, worth over the next seven years. Assuming he’s a 4.5 WAR player aging at .5 WAR per season, with marginal wins worth $5 million a year and increasing by $300,000 each season, we get this:

Year WAR $/Win Market Value ($)
2011 4.5 5 22.5
2012 4 5.3 21.2
2013 3.5 5.6 19.6
2014 3 5.9 17.7
2015 2.5 6.2 15.5
2016 2 6.5 13
2017 1.5 6.8 10.2

Using our simplistic model, if you add up that last column, you get $120 million, just six million off what the Nationals are actually paying Werth. Many have proclaimed this deal as crazy, insane, or some synonym thereof, but it really isn’t that bad. It’s at least defensible, to some degree. I mean, our assumptions above are perhaps somewhat generous to Werth. Assuming that he’s only going to decline by 0.5 wins per season into his mid-to-late thirties is certainly a glass-half-full outlook. But still, it’s not a horrible contract, considering the above chart.

Anyway, if the deal doesn’t rate that badly by the numbers, why include it here at all? Because the Nationals signed him. Washington may be a few years away from fielding a very good ballclub, with the likes of Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, and Bryce Harper leading the way. If we assume that Washington is not quite there yet, but bound to be pretty good by 2013-2014, why make a big splash now?

The Nationals simply could have waited to make a big move like this until they had a better idea of just how good they were going to be. By the time the Nats are ready to compete, Werth’s contract could easily be a burden, one that restricts them from making much-needed moves down the road. While this deal isn't historically bad by any means, it’s still a head-scratcher, not only because of the years and dollars, but because of the organization that made the commitment.

You’ll notice that the Boston Red Sox signed Carl Crawford, a similar (if not slightly better) player to Werth, for the same amount of years and $16 million more, but that deal won’t make this list. Adding Crawford to the Red Sox helps them right now, and might just push them into the playoffs.

Los Angeles Angels acquire OF Vernon Wells from Toronto Blue Jays for C Mike Napoli and OF Juan Rivera

Vernon Wells is a very good player, coming off one of the best seasons of his career. Last season, he hit .273/.331/.515 with the Jays, reestablishing his value after a career-worst 2009 campaign. The problem with Wells, simply, is his contract, as it’s one that pays him as if he’s an elite performer. He’ll make a jaw-dropping $86 million over the next four years. At this point in his career, Wells just isn’t that type of player.

He hits for a solid average and has a lot of power, especially for a center fielder. The defensive metrics are down on his glove-work in center, though:

Year UZR DRS
2005 +4 runs +6 runs
2006 +7 +14
2007 +5 +5
2008 -13 -12
2009 -17 -12
2010 -6 -4

He appears to be in gradual decline out in center, regressing from an average-to-above-average outfielder to a below-average one. That’s not surprising for a guy entering his 30s. Wells will be 32 next season—the Angels will be paying him all of this money while he enters his mid-thirties.

Needless to say, Wells is certainly not a guy you’d want to be taking on for $20+ million a year right now. To make matters worse, the Angels gave up a really good offensive catcher in Mike Napoli, and they didn’t get any money (or prospects) back in the deal. Napoli had a poor offensive season (by his standards) as a full-time starter, hitting .238/.316/.468—a career-low OPS. Napoli is the owner of a career .251/.346/.485 line, so he’s a good candidate to bounce back next season. The Blue Jays promptly dealt Napoli to the Texas Rangers for closer Frank Francisco.

It’s hard to understand why the Angels would want to take on Wells right now. I mean, he might make the team better, but you could argue that losing Rivera and Napoli negates most of that. Not to mention he’s going to cost something like $10 million more than those two combined next season, and $20+ million a year for three years after that.

New York Yankees sign Rafael Soriano to three-year, $35 million deal

It should always be noted that the Yankees have the ability to spend money at a rate no other team—not even the Red Sox—can match. Further, each marginal win they add is probably worth more to the Yankees than it would be to any other team, both because of their context on the win curve (always right around 95 wins) and their market size. That said, throwing $35 million at a 30-year-old reliever is rarely a good use of resources.

Soriano is an excellent relief pitcher. Last season, he racked up 45 saves for the Tampa Bay Rays, with a 1.73 ERA and a 4.07 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He probably had a little bit of luck on his side, as that ERA and his .199 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) are not sustainable. Still, Soriano has had a very nice career, with a 2.73 ERA (3.23 FIP), 9.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 0.89 HR/9. The Yankees are picking up a good reliever, and he’ll make their bullpen better next year and probably each of the next three years, though Soriano can opt out of the deal after the 2011 or 2012 season.

The question, though, is whether the money and commitment are worth the risk. Relievers are a volatile bunch, and Soriano likely won’t be the exception. Further, he’s had some injury troubles in the past, and no pitcher is ever risk-free in that regard. Our own THT projections have him worth about 1.4 WAR per season over the length of the deal. Putting that in graphical form:

Year WAR $/Win Market Value ($)
2011 1.4 5 7
2012 1.5 5.3 8
2013 1.4 5.6 7.8

That comes out to $23 million over three years, a far cry from the $35 million the Yankees will be paying Soriano. As mentioned, the Yanks will likely benefit more from Soriano’s added wins than any other team, but I don’t think it’ll make up the difference. The Yankees have a lot of money to spend, but it definitely could have been better spent elsewhere.

Florida Marlins sign John Buck to three-year, $18 million deal

This move doesn’t have the franchise-changing impact of some of the ones profiled here, but it’s still doesn’t look very good on paper. Buck is a relatively ordinary part-time catcher, coming off the finest season of his career. He hit .281/.314/.489 with the Toronto Blue Jays last year, but his career line (mostly with Kansas City) is a much more pedestrian .243/.301/.421. He doesn’t walk much (6.5% career), he strikes out a lot (26.3%), and he does have some pop (.178 ISO).

Last year, Buck saw his BABIP climb from his typical .280s to .335, which was a key reason for his success. He might retain some of that moving forward, but he’s a good bet to regress next season back toward his career norms. And, really, that is more like a below-average major league hitter. At catcher, he certainly does possess some value, but it’s more along the lines of a year-by-year experiment, not a three-year commitment.

Buck could provide nothing for the Marlins and it wouldn’t be a devastating deal. As mentioned, there’s no way $18 million is going to have a franchise-crippling impact, even to the low-budget Marlins. Still, it just isn’t good resource management for a team that is still probably a few years and a few good moves away from competing in a very solid National League East.

New York Yankees sign Derek Jeter to three year, $51 million deal (plus a fourth year player option)

Despite the offseason drama between the Jeter camp and the Yankees, everyone knew that a deal between the two sides was imminent. Jeter will make $16 million a year for the next three seasons, plus a fourth year player option at $8 million ($3 million buyout) that could reach $17 million with performance incentives.

Jeter has been the face of the Yankees for the better part of his 16-year career, and for good reason. He’s been a Hall of Fame caliber player, even if you ignore the intangible qualities that many bestow upon Jeter. According to Baseball Reference, since 1996, his first full season, Jeter has averaged 4.7 WAR per season (4.7 by fWAR, as well). That is year after year of greatness, in one of the most visible, high pressure positions in all of baseball (shortstop for the New York Yankees).

However, you can’t help but look at this deal and think that it’s one that pays Jeter for his past performance, not what he’s expected to do going forward. And it isn’t a little one- or two-year deal, either; it’s at least a three-year commitment at a whopping $51 million.

Jeter is coming off his worst season yet, as he hit just .270/.340/.370 last year. Over the past three seasons, he’s hit just .301/.369/.414. (106 OPS+). Throwing in Jeter’s always suspect defense doesn’t help matters, not to mention the fact that he’s going to be 37 in June.

Our THT projections view Jeter as a 2.4 WAR player next season, dropping to 1.3 WAR in 2013:

Year WAR $/Win Market Value ($)
2011 2.4 5 12
2012 2.0 5.3 10.6
2013 1.3 5.6 7.3

That is just $30 million over three years, $21 million shy of what the Yanks are actually paying Jeter. Of course, there are factors that likely narrow that gap. From a marketing perspective, the deal might make sense. As mentioned, Jeter is still the face of the Yankees, and keeping him around undoubtedly helps factors like merchandise sales, ticket sales, and the Yankees brand as a whole.

Further, the Yankees need every win they can get competing in a very tough AL East division, and Jeter’s two marginal wins may just help push them into the playoffs. As we mentioned while discussing the Soriano deal, the Yankees get more than anybody else out of each marginal win.

In the end, though, just like everyone else, the Yankees have to make sound financial decisions. They don’t have an unlimited payroll, and they have a lot of money tied up to veteran, beyond-their-prime players. Giving $51 million to Jeter certainly doesn’t give them anymore flexibility going forward. While the deal may save face in the domain of public opinion, it doesn’t go very far in helping the Yankees win their next championship.



Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Myron Logan 2011-01-31T08:04:15+00:00 Five winning moves of the offseason http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-winning-moves-of-the-offseason/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-winning-moves-of-the-offseason/#When:08:06:15 With most major transactions likely complete, it’s as good a time as any to take a look at some of the best moves of the 2010-2011 offseason. In no particular order:

1) Boston Red Sox acquire Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego Padres for right-handed pitcher Casey Kelly, 1B Anthony Rizzo, center fielder Reymond Fuentes, and center fielder-second baseman Eric Patterson

The Red Sox have a system in place that is very similar to that of their archrival New York Yankees; they must, at the very least, reach the playoffs every year. Boston has done a pretty good job of doing that recently, playing October baseball in six of the last eight seasons. The Red Sox have so much money going into their product that a lack of success, over any extended period, will likely have ugly consequences.

Contrary to what some may believe, Red Sox fans won’t show up just because there’s a baseball game at Fenway Park. The recent wave of sell-out crowds is a product of the on-field success (with some good marketing built in). In the 1990s, when the Red Sox were far less competitive, averaging 30,000 fans a game was a good year. In the late '70s and early '80s, when they missed the playoffs for 10 consecutive years, average game attendance was in the low-to-mid 20,000s.

All of this is a longer way of saying Boston needs to make a splash here and there, because it needs to put a team on the field that is going to win 95-plus games every season in one of baseball’s toughest divisions. The Red Sox gave up a lot for the rights to Adrian Gonzalez (who is under contract only for the 2011 season, at $6.3 million, though he likely will be extended), including a potential ace in Kelly, a potential starter in Rizzo, and a center fielder who could develop into an everyday player.

That’s a lot of potential surplus value heading to San Diego (which you could also declare a winner in this deal), but when you think about Boston’s aforementioned success-cycle (win-win-win), the deal still makes a lot of sense. Kelly, Rizzo and Fuentes might help down the road, but Gonzalez will help right now. The Red Sox, at least in their current form, are always in win-now mode.

They’ve done a great job building a farm system that has produced the likes of Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester and Dustin Pedroia. But they’ve also cashed in those chips at opportune times, like when they dealt Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez to the Marlins for Josh Beckett (who helped them to a World Series title one year later). Red Sox fans will likely have no problem if one (or even two) of the trio sent to San Diego develops into a star in a few years, if Adrian Gonzalez helps bring Boston another World Series title or two.

On the field, the Gonzalez acquisition shifts Kevin Youkilis back to third base to replace the departed Adrian Beltre. Defensively, they take a hit, as Beltre is still one of the best around, and Youkilis hasn’t been a full-time third baseman in six years, but the smooth-fielding Gonzalez should cut into some of that at first. Offensively, it’s a nice improvement, as Beltre should regress quite a bit from his performance last season and, regardless, Gonzalez is a superior bat.

With the addition of Carl Crawford and Bobby Jenks along with A-Gone (and better fortune with health), the Red Sox are poised to get back to the postseason and again be a force in the American League. 

2) Chicago White Sox sign Adam Dunn to four-year, $56 million deal

In an off-season where the dollars are flying (Jayson Werth: seven years/$126 million, Crawford: seven years/$142 million, for example), the White Sox signed Dunn to a favorable (at least in this free-agent market) deal. While Dunn isn’t as valuable as either Werth or Crawford, when you compare their respective contracts, Dunn looks a lot more appealing.

The 31-year-old first basemen/outfielder (who will fit nicely as a designated hitter in the American League) has slugged at least 38 homers in each of the past seven years. He strikes out a ton and generally hits around .250, but thanks to high walk totals and his prodigious power, Dunn’s offensive value is very good. Defensively, Dunn has lost a good bit of value in the National League, as they make you play the field over there and that is not his strong suit.

In Chicago, Dunn will be playing in a home park perfectly suited to his flyball-heavy, power-hitting offensive game. According to Patriot’s park factors, Chicago’s U.S. Cellular Field (Park Factor=1.04) is the fourth-best hitter’s park in the majors, and the most favorable home run park (1.13) in the league. Dunn’s previous home park in Washington was pretty neutral all-around, though both Arizona and Cincinnati sported very hitter-friendly ballparks. It wouldn’t be surprising to see his home run total pop back over 40 and his doubles (a career-high 36 last season) fall back into the 20s.

With Mark Kotsay logging most of Chicago’s plate appearances at DH last season, the White Sox got little offensive production from the position, hitting just .247/.332/.396 combined at DH. Dunn should improve the White Sox greatly at the position, if that’s where he ends up spending most of his time.

As mentioned with the Gonzalez analysis above, all the these moves must be evaluated in context of the team’s specific situation. The White Sox won 88 games last year, finishing six games behind the Minnesota Twins and an AL Central crown. They are right on the cusp of a playoff berth, further justifying the decision to spend $14 million a year on Adam Dunn, who could be the addition that helps vault them back into the postseason. 

3) San Diego Padres sign Orlando Hudson to a two-year, $11.5 million deal (plus $8 million mutual option)

We looked at the Padres' strange offseason a couple of weeks ago, and you could choose any number of moves here, including the Gonzalez haul, the trade for Cameron Maybin, and the Aaron Harang signing.

Hudson has spent the last three seasons bouncing around from the Diamondbacks to the Dodgers to the Twins. He’s back in the National League West after Jed Hoyer and the Padres signed him to a two-year contract. Hudson’s coming off one of his worst offensive seasons, hitting .268/.338/.372. Still, the 33-year-old wanderer has been a rock-solid performer at second throughout his career, putting up a career .280/.346/.424 line.

Our own THT Forecasts like Hudson quite a bit (particularly his defense, over which there’s some difference of opinion), pegging him as a 1.9 and 1.8 WAR player in each of the next two seasons, respectively. Assuming $5 million per win on the free-agent market, we can break it down:

Year WAR $/Win Est. Salary
2011 1.9 $5 $9.5
2012 1.8 $5.3 $9.5
Total 3.7 - $19M

Using that simple evaluation, Hudson’s being underpaid by something like $7.5 million over the next two seasons.

It’s interesting that the Padres almost always seem to sign players to what appear to be below-market deals, perhaps because that’s all they really can do when venturing out on the free-agent market. If they know they can’t sign a player to a team-favorable deal, they likely pass. Hoyer and his predecessor, Kevin Towers, have seemingly done an excellent job scouring the market for bargains, guys who will come to San Diego at a discount for any number of potential reasons (the pitcher-friendly ballpark, the nice weather, etc.).

4) Kansas City Royals acquire shortstop Alcides Escobar, outfielder Lorenzo Cain and right-handed pitchers Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi from Milwaukee Brewers for right-hander Zack Greinke (and Yuniesky Betancourt)

Like the Adrian Gonzalez trade, you could like this deal from either side, but I particularly like the haul the Royals received for Greinke.

First, Greinke. He’s a great pitcher and a guy who comes with an equally great story, overcoming personal issues on his road to success. Greinke possesses a number of attributes that you’d want in a pitcher. He keeps the ball in the park, doesn’t walk many batters, and has posted solid strikeout rates throughout his career. Further, he’s durable, having thrown at least 200 innings for three straight seasons, and he’s going to be only 27 years old.

Over the last three years, Greinke’s had one tremendous campaign (2009) where he posted a 2.16 ERA in 229 innings (9.0 rWAR, 9.4 fWAR). He surrounded that with two very solid, though not spectacular, seasons. Last year he posted a 4.17 ERA in 220 innings, along with a 7.4 strikeout-per-nine rate, a drop-off of two from his stellar 2009. In 2008, he threw 202 innings with a 3.47 ERA. Using the same model outlined above, here’s a look at Greinke’s projected worth over the next two seasons, the final two of his current contract:

Year WAR $/Win Est. Salary
2011 5.1 $5 $25.5
2012 4.9 $5.3 $26
Total 10 - $51.5

Greinke will be paid $13.5 million in each of the next two seasons, making his surplus value $24.5 million. The Brewers picked up a very nice arm here, and they should be competitive in the NL Central for the near future. However, they did give up quite a bit for the rights to the ace right hander.

It generally says a lot about a guy when he gets to start at shortstop at age 23, and perhaps even more when the team sticks with him for 552 plate appearances of .614 OPS. The highly regarded Escobar came into his own in 2008 and 2009 in the minors, backing a .328/.363/.434 line at Double-A with a .298/.353/.409 performance at Triple-A as a 22-year-old top prospect.

Escobar was rated as the 19th-best prospect in baseball prior to the 2009 season and the 12th-best before the 2010 season by Baseball America. He’s excellent defensively and has all of the tools—range, arm strength, reaction time—to become an above-average major league shortstop. Offensively, there are more questions, as he struggled mightily last season and has a spotty minor league record. Still, the Royals have acquired an everyday regular here and a potential star, if things break right.

Cain is an athletic center fielder who projects as an everyday player. He hit .306/.348/.415 in 158 plate appearances last season, his major league debut with the Brewers. In the minors, Cain put up a career .291/.366/.416 line. If he develops more offensively and shows the defensive chops to handle center, Cain could be a starter in Kansas City.

Odorizzi is a 20-year-old right hander who was solid last season in Single-A, striking out 135 while walking 40 in 120 innings (3.43 ERA). Odorizzi was rated as a B+ prospect by John Sickels. Jeffress is a 22-year-old righty who put up a 10.6 strikeout rate in the minors, along with 5.5 walks per nine. Sickels also rated Jeffress as a B+ prospect.

So, did the Royals get $25 million in potential surplus value from the Brewers? B+ prospects are worth somewhere around $7.3 million on average, so that’s about $15 million right there. Escobar, by himself, could project to upwards of $20 million, though expectations must be dampened a little after last season. Cain also has a chance to provide positive value.

Overall, the Royals traded a great pitcher who had a terrific career as a Royal. They cashed him in for four promising pieces who may help the organization well into the future. With Greinke almost guaranteed to leave for free agency in 2013, the Royals needed to decide on his future. They could have waited a year, as the Padres did with Adrian Gonzalez, but decided to make the move now. Adding four chips to an already very solid farm system in Kansas City only strengthens their chances to finally build a winner. 

5) St. Louis Cardinals sign outfielder Lance Berkman to a one year, $8 million deal

After struggling last season with the Houston Astros and New York Yankees (.248/.368/.413), Berkman signed the standard one-year, let-me-reestablish-myself deal, and the St. Louis Cardinals are better for it.  Berkman will play either right or left field, depending on whether the Cardinals decide to move Matt Holliday to right. Manager Tony La Russa recently said he'll most likely keep Holliday comfortable in left.

Berkman has been on a gradual decline for years now, and that’s something you’d expect from a big, mid-30s outfielder. That said, last year was his first truly down year with the bat, and he’s a very good bet to bounce back and at least produce something closer to the .280/.400/.520 line you’re accustomed to seeing from him. If the Cardinals get anywhere near that, this will be a sweet deal for them.

Our THT Forecasts pegs Berkman at .271/.382/.466 with adequate outfield defense, good for 3.6 WAR. If you assume $5 million for a win, that’s something like $18 million on the open market, and the Cards will pay Berkman just $8 million next season. Considering that teams generally pay less $/WAR on one-year deals, it might not quite be a true $10 million bargain. Still, it appears to be a nice, under-market deal.

The Cardinals won 86 games last season, finishing five games behind the Cincinnati Reds and missing out on the playoffs for the third time in four years. With the Reds poised to make another run and the Brewers looking dangerous, Berkman could be an acquisition that helps push St. Louis back into the playoffs, making this move that much better.



Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Myron Logan 2011-01-18T08:06:15+00:00