The Hardball Times -- Nick Fleder http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-24T08:08:15+00:00 AL East division update: May edition http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/al-east-division-update-may-edition-2013/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/al-east-division-update-may-edition-2013/#When:07:11:15

If a casual fan were to peek at the AL East standings today, he or she would hardly bat an eye: the powerhouses of the past decade sit pretty atop the pack, a couple of dark horses remain firmly in the hunt, and the bottom feeder is beginning to slip away from contention already.

The order is not what hardcore fans of any flock were predicting, though. You’ll remember quickly that the Toronto Blue Jays added over $35.5 million this offseason and were heavily favored in the division. You’ll remember that the Boston Red Sox could not muster 70 wins last year, and that some were convinced their 2013 also was doomed. And you’ll surely remember that the New York Yankees were left for dead by a number of pundits. The order today may surprise, but all along—and no one seemed to disagree with this characterization—the division has been wide open.

What is eating the Toronto Blue Jays?

A team with raw talent is not necessarily a team with winning chemistry, as evidenced by this particular collection of superstars. The Blue Jays were supposed to beat any opponent with their multi-angular attack: two doses of speed (Jose Reyes and Rajai Davis) and at least two doses of power (Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, and Brett Lawrie)—if their pitching ever failed. And in-between the offensive fireworks, the high-value arms were supposed to sprinkle in a few gems here and there.

No such luck. R.A. Dickey, the NL Cy Young winner last year who was booed off the field on Saturday, called the team “dysfunctional...kind of searching for a way.” But is such a diagnosis, a team lacking chemistry, too easy, too simple?

Injuries are partly to blame. Lawrie, Reyes, Josh Johnson, and Bautista each have missed time. And luck hasn’t been kind to a number of Blue Jay bats.

Adjust the performance, though, for luck; for strength of schedule; for predicted runs scored versus reality; for just about everything, and you’re left with a team that’s won as many games—11, as of this writing—as they should have. Talent has diverged from success, and what better immeasurable factor to blame it on than team chemistry?

Where is the swagger of the Tampa Bay Rays?

There was some level of fear that when the Rays let B.J. Upton walk, their offense would suffer. Fast-forward a few months, and there was some level of feeling that they overcompensated; that when the Rays swapped James Shields for minor-league masher Wil Myers, their pitching would suffer at the hand of offensive reinforcements. The balance seemed delicate any way you sliced it.

The concerns of dismal offensive production surely seem overblown at this juncture: the offense rocks the sixth-highest WAR (per FanGraphs), despite a .279 team BABIP. The pitching has been another story altogether.

While Shields tosses fire in Royal blue (he has a 3.00 ERA supported by a 2.78 FIP and 3.22 xFIP), the Rays starters—at the hand of many too many home runs—have combined for a 4.21 staff ERA. Alex Cobb has experienced a breakout that seems legitimate and withholds tests of luck (he’s riding on superior control) and stay (his hot streak is a continuation of last September’s 2.73 ERA).

Luck will help David Price escape the doldrums, but the recipe for the Rays might be a fifth-starter replacement for Roberto Hernandez. And James Loney’s run of greatness (his 171 wRC+ means he’s 71 percent better than league average in total offensive production) surely will come to an end. So the two ends of the spectrum converge ... a delicate balance, indeed.

Do the Baltimore Orioles have staying power?

The Orioles of last year were a special kind of lucky. Or so we thought. Their 29-9 record in one-run games (a .763 win percentage) was the third-best in baseball history and the best since the 1890 Brooklyn Bridegrooms. Naturally, the line told a story of luck over skill, a story of fate over one of deft field management.

Whether or not luck was to thank for a highly successful 2012, this year, the Orioles are prevailing on talent. Their top three offensive players—Manny Machado, Chris Davis, and Adam Jones, all among the top 50 in WAR, per FanGraphs—have been forces. Despite some luck, the trio should remain forceful all year. Machado has All-Star potential, and the latter two are the magic age of 27.

The intangibles have to be considered: Buck Showalter has a young squad (oldest active player is 32), with home run power (their 39 home runs are among the top five in baseball) and a groundball-heavy bullpen (relievers on the team have a combined 46.7 groundball percentage). Perhaps they aren’t built to last, but right under our noses, the Orioles have built themselves into a division force.

Are the New York Yankees championship contenders?

The conventional wisdom on the Yankees looked something like this in March: if the brittle staff can keep the bed clean, the woefully average offense might be able to muster up enough spark to win a few games. With the overachieving Ivan Nova, the enigmatic Phil Hughes, and the final professional days of Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda, though, the equation looked a bit optimistic.

Perhaps 2013 was to go down in Yankee history as the sacrificed year, where the lifting of the luxury cap burden was the only goal; a painful footnote in an otherwise dominant few decades. It didn’t help matters that Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez were missing in action. April was the month where the house of cards seemed destined fall.

But the Yankees—on the surprising backs of Vernon Wells, Travis Hafner, Lyle Overbay, and Francisco Cervelli, all supported by generally excellent starting pitching— have hovered around the top of the standings for nearly the whole month. And reinforcements are on the way.

The success begs the question: was the panic overstated? The offense was to be anchored all along by a perennial MVP candidate in Robinson Cano. The staff was to be anchored all along by a perennial Cy Young candidate in CC Sabathia. Brett Gardner averaged nearly 5.5 wins in 2010 and 2011, and he was fully healthy going into the season; Kuroda hadn’t a bad season to his name in his major league career.

Whether they’re overperforming or not, reinforcements are on the way. Perhaps the Yankees can sneak into the playoffs, and a team built around the home run and the pitching staff surely can make a run.

How poisonous was Bobby Valentine’s presence?

Clock in with a top-five offense and a top-five pitching staff, and you’ll surely find yourself atop your division, no matter what demons follow you from the previous season. The Sox have piggybacked on the performances of Clay Buchholz (Cy Young candidate, or spit baller, or both?) and Jacoby Ellsbury.

A couple of things about this accomplishment are noteworthy. Firstly, besides a four-game set at the end of the month against the Astros, the Red Sox haven’t played a bad team all year. (This requires us to give Toronto the benefit of the doubt, but we’ve established that they are, though flawed, extremely talented.)

Secondly, the highest xFIP on the starting staff belongs to Jon Lester, who is generating ground balls at nearly a 50-percent rate. Besides a slightly prolonged Alfredo Aceves hiccup for a handful of starts, the Red Sox arms—and this shockingly includes John Lackey—have been superb.

If you haven’t already, it’s time to admit you were wrong about the Red Sox. Even I didn’t have them pinned down right. This year, discipline and camaraderie are staples. The boys are playing with confidence, and love—even with the Valentine departed—is in the dugout.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2013-05-06T07:11:15+00:00 Looking for writers for The Hardball Times Fantasy http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/looking-for-writers-for-the-hardball-times-fantasy/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/looking-for-writers-for-the-hardball-times-fantasy/#When:07:22:15
In light of the fairly recent merger between The Hardball Times and FanGraphs' RotoGraphs, the leadership at both sites has plans to better define the two sites as their own separate entities, while simultaneously increasing the distribution of content between them. Let me explain in further detail.

Our vision is that The Hardball Times will be a site of big-picture writing, strategically focused and research driven; RotoGraphs will continue its up-to-the-minute player analysis, roster-driven, mostly. Now, let it be said immediately that this is not a hard-and-fast classification: you'll still see some short form pieces on THT, and will see some research projects at FanGraphs. But this new system is designed so projects can run across platforms so writers from both sites can contribute more dynamically.

If you are interested in writing research-driven pieces or series, or heavily strategic articles (draft strategy, team makeup, many-year trends, long-term thoughts and observations, etc.), please shoot me an email at nick.fleder@gmail.com.

Stay tuned for more details. And most of all: good luck drafting.

Cheers for now,
Nick Fleder & The Hardball Times Fantasy Staff

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2013-03-30T07:22:15+00:00 Dollar a day: Marco Estrada http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/dollar-a-day-marco-estrada/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/dollar-a-day-marco-estrada/#When:07:09:15 That dude in the Brewers uniform, the one who struck out nine while walking only a deuce: he’s a real estrada.

Ladies and gentlemen,
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The masters of control, featuring Marco Estrada
I once thought I knew what pitching was. Yet, I was toiling around the lower levels of the farm system like a pigeon away from his flock; alone, lost, untrusting in my stuff. I polished, and polished, but soon found myself to enjoy only the ugly Washington days where I once expected glory; with empty seats and empty promises and bloated ratios consuming my day-to-day.

I needed a change—they barely used me, barely wanted me, not trusting that I could control my fastball, concerned that I was addicted to the thrill of the strikeout.

So I went to the only logical place on Earth: Milwaukee. No empty seats, plenty of beer, and a fresh start. I thought I was ready, but once again I faced the harsh realities of suck. Another year shared between Triple-A and the major leagues, another year devoid of control. I thought I was done.

I decided to try anything and everything. I tweaked my release points, letting it go at a higher vertical point for all pitches. I stopped fooling around with a three-pitch repertoire. Welcome, cutter. Welcome, sinker. Hello fame and fortune. Hello, Kate Upton. My strikeout to walk ratio spiked, and those fools from Milwaukee even gave me seven games to start.

I speak with you today on the cusp of the 2013 season. I really killed it last year—one of the five best strikeout-to-walk ratios in the entire league. I really believe I can do it again—I wasn’t just getting lucky last year, wasn’t just “stranding runners” or “having balls fall my way” or “getting an absurd amount of swinging strikes” or any of that pizzazz.

Okay, maybe I won’t strike out more than a guy an inning again, but I certainly deserve to be drafted ahead of that freak Fiers I call my teammate. I promise I won’t let you down. I promise you I’ve become an estrada, like I always knew I could. And if you can get me for a dollar... hell, I'll make it worth your while.

-Marco Estrada, Hilton Milwaukee River Hotel, circa March 2013

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2013-03-13T07:09:15+00:00 Dollar a day: Justin Smoak http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/dollar-a-day-justin-smoak/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/dollar-a-day-justin-smoak/#When:07:05:15 endgame options that might have—depending on your league structure—cost you a buck. Three of them panned out: Jose Altuve was about the only sight to behold on the Astros; Mike Minor cemented himself in the long-term plans of the Braves with a stellar season; and Mike Aviles flaunted his underrated power-speed combination for the cost of a McDouble. Two of them panned: John Mayberry was a tease that wouldn’t stop teasing, and Mat Gamel blew out his knee. I’ll go five for five this year.
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Less swinging and missing this year. (Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports/US Presswire)


We kicked things off yesterday with Cliff Pennington. And the second “future steal of your draft” is none other than Justin Smoak.

Remember when Justin Smoak was traded for Cliff Lee? Yes, this actually happened.
Remember that time Justin Smoak hit .240 in the majors? I sure don’t!
Remember Justin Smoak ‘s final line last year? Ryan Howard could do better with one Achilles.

If Justin Smoak is to you a running joke, I must ask you to reconsider. I understand his track record is far from shiny—three years has gone so fast, and he’s proven himself to be a 20-homer, batting average sucking black hole at one of the deepest positions in the fantasy sphere. But if you slept through last September, I’m finally waking you up. Justin Smoak’s a changed man; a hitting machine; an artist at the plate; and a bell-ringer in the spring.

Perhaps this is a foolhardy analysis, but my theory is that Justin Smoak learned patience in the fall of last year. His swing percentage outside the zone (23.4 percent) was more than three percent below his career average; he also struck out at roughly half (11.5 percent) his career rate in September. What might have caused this? Your guess is as good as mine…if your guess is “demotion.”

I don’t know what changed him in Tacoma—it doesn’t exactly scream “life-altering vacation”—but I know he was walking like a madman on the farm, and upon return, was indeed a more patient fellow at the plate. He smashed five homers in a month, hit like Willie Mays, and even decided to act like a plus fielder for a brief period.

Chalk him up for 20 or 25 home runs this year, and forget the crowd of powerful bats taking Safeco this year: Michael Morse, Kendrys Morales, Jesus Montero, and Young Justin can all reasonably fit on the field, smashing long balls, smashing away.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2013-03-12T07:05:15+00:00 Dollar a day: Cliff Pennington http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/dollar-a-day-cliff-pennington/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/dollar-a-day-cliff-pennington/#When:07:12:15
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A guy who'll love Chase Field after O.co




















Seven hypotheticals


-Cliff Pennington may hit .220.
-Cliff Pennington may lose his job as Arizona's shortstop to young Didi Gregorius within a month.
-Cliff Pennington may injure his left shoulder in a freak accident.
-Cliff Pennington may steal 20 bases.
-Cliff Pennington may field the ball at a superb level again this year.
-Cliff Pennington may even reach double-digit home runs in wet, humid Chase Field.
-Cliff Pennington may be the 29th most valuable shortstop in 2013.

Seven expansions upon seven above hypotheticals


-Cliff Pennington is a lifetime .249 hitter: one who faced some miserable luck last year while hitting under .220, but also one who stopped making the considerable contact he’d been used to.
-Cliff Pennington is not the shortstop of the Diamondbacks’ future, the title of which belongs to a young Didi Gregorius (6-foot-1/185), a minor-league level hitter at current state with a Gold Glove-worthy leather to flash; young Didi, for now, is bothered by an elbow injury, which could linger.
-Cliff Pennington probably won’t injure his left shoulder in a freak accident, and his generally solid health actually might tip the job competition in his favor.
-Cliff Pennington was on a 20-steal pace last year but played only 125 games, after averaging roughly 152 the previous two seasons.
-Cliff Pennington can flirt with league-average production with the stick—and would certainly appear to be a better hitter than Gregorius—but is generally regarded as a slick fielder; if he can have another plus year on the dirt, he may stick around enough to tally some golden counting stats.
-Cliff Pennington’s aforementioned golden potential previously has been limited to his speed, and speed alone. With a move to Chase Field, he has the chance to tap into his modest power (6.67 homers per year over his last three years) and push his longball total to double digits.
-Cliff Pennington is being drafted as the 29th shortstop, per Mock Draft Central, but with any semblance of playing time, he’ll best that slot; so if you have a patchy middle infield, take a flier on Pennington with the last pick of your draft.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2013-03-11T07:12:15+00:00 Five questions: Boston Red Sox http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-boston-red-sox-2013/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-boston-red-sox-2013/#When:07:27:15
Bobby Valentine was far from a unifying clubhouse force, but a force he was: in a matter of a month, beer was banned, Kevin Youkilis’ passion for the game was publically questioned, and team captain Dustin Pedroia called right back out, at his newly-minted manager, something along the lines of (and I'm paraphrasing): "Guy, you're not welcome here." A few key offseason acquisitions and a new clubhouse regime—led by John Farrell, formerly of the Blue Jays—spell hope for the Red Sox, but they face stiff competition from all four divisional foes.

Will 2013 come with another last-place finish?


Let’s start by listing off some of the key positional changes—whether they stem from trade, injury replacement, or free agent signing—for the upcoming season.

Right field: Cody Ross replaced by Shane Victorino
Shortstop: Mike Aviles replaced by Stephen Drew
First base: Adrian Gonzalez replaced by Mike Napoli
Left field: Daniel Nava and his band of horses replaced by Jonny Gomes
Center field: Unhealthy Jacoby Ellsbury replaced by healthy Jacoby Ellsbury
Pitcher: Josh Beckett replaced by Ryan Dempster
Pitcher: Aaron Cook and his crew of nobodies replaced by John Lackey
Closer: Alfredo Aceves replaced by Joel Hanrahan
Bullpen: Vicente Padilla replaced by Koji Uehara.

GM Ben Cherington’s front office deserves some credit for a clearly upgraded roster: they made a series of moves that simultaneously gave them hope in 2013 while freeing their financial shackles beyond that. The above list—save for the possible wash in the Napoli v. Gonzalez comparison—represents general improvement in this year's squad.

What the Sox were in 2012 was not an awful team, but an underachieving one. Injuries tore through their roster—best represented by no other nugget of information than this: a combined 158 games were played by Mauro Gomez, James Loney, Marlon Byrd and Ryan Kalish—and the script for the season was all but written by the All-Star break.

PETCOA seems to think the Sox will vie for a Wild Card berth. With the drove of talent on the cusp of major league readiness and the excited new faces wearing red on their feet, I wouldn’t be shocked.

Speaking of young talent: who’s on the cusp?


Forget, for a moment, the “new” faces that’ll grace the field at Fenway in April. Keep in mind that they aren’t really new. Shane Victorino? An All-Star, everyone more or less knows what to expect from him. Joel Hanrahan and Mike Napoli are somewhere in between household names and gritty fan favorites, and Stephen Drew is a Billy Beane-certified talent.

But the real excitement stirs in Double-A Portland, mostly, where four top 100 prospects could reside at the beginning of the year, and where—more importantly—upside meets the imagination. Xander Boegarts is a consensus top-10 prospect, with less than a quarter-century worth of games played at the Double-A level. With his developmental pace and raw talent, though, it’s not too farfetched to speculate on a next-season debut if Stephen Drew were to go down with injury (as he's been known to do).

Beyond that is a the group led by speedyJackie Bradley (seen by many as Jacoby Ellsbury’s eventual replacement). Matt Barnes (who has a consistent 94-mph fastball), Allen Webster and flamethrowing Rubby de la Rosa (the last two acquired in the contract-unloading deal with the Dodgers), make up the rest of the top tier in an exciting system filled with eminently watchable talent.

Oh, and Will Middlebrooks, he of less than 300 major league plate appearances? He could certainly blossom into a star this year.


How deep is the crop of starting pitchers?


We can’t quantify the toll that clubhouse sparring and media scrutiny took on the Sox’s rotational performance last year. But we do know that the team’s starters won 16 fewer games than they did the previous season, and slipped to the bottom third in starting pitcher WAR.

Nine pitchers contributed to the ugliness: Jon Lester had his worst full season since his rookie year, Clay Buchholz again gave up too many home runs, Josh Beckett was painfully average, and all of Daisuke Matsuzaka, Aaron Cook, and Daniel Bard made double digit starts (a combined 39 for the three, which produced just nine wins). Only Felix Doubront (league average in pretty much everything) and Franklin Morales (a strikeout master) surpassed almost non-existent expectations.

Seemingly, Farrell will go with the following five-man rotation, until Lackey works his way out of a job or Buchholz injures and re-injures himself:

Lester
Dempster
Lackey
Doubront
Buchholz

Franklin Morales is the obvious fill-in, and the argument could be made for him taking Lackey’s spot—which he might have done if the Sox hadn’t tied so much money up in Lackey. Beyond him, de la Rosa seems like the most obvious seventh man, and Aceves—out of a closing job—could surely spot start.

Are they done wheeling and dealing?


You ask me which holes there were on last year’s roster, and I tell you how they were filled. Backup catcher: how about the best in the game, David Ross. Power off the bench and insurance for David Ortiz and the first baseman: Mike Carp. A weak bullpen: how about four closer candidates?

What the Red Sox did sacrifice in piecing together a fine looking depth chart is outfield contingency. Gomes might not hold up, and Ellsbury seems all too susceptible to freak injury. The question then shifts to Nava: is he a good enough fourth man?

In their suddenly stacked bullpen, the Red Sox brought themselves room to maneuver. If they have injury concerns in the outfield, they have a plan (trade Andrew Bailey for a bat and take care of two birds with one phone call); if they have starting rotation concerns, they have a plan (move Aceves to the rotation); if they slip out of contention, they have a plan (trade Joel Hanrahan to a contender for a bounty of prospects); if their number one struggles, they have a plan (swap Hanrahan out for Uehara).

Does John Farrell spell success?


Two quick facts, as reported by Ron Chimelis of MassLive:

-John Farrell has never managed a major league team to a winning record.
-Terry Francona hadn’t either when he was hired in 2004.

What Farrell brings, one would imagine, is some peace in the Red Sox locker room. To whatever extent the media circus can be avoided in Boston, it will be this season. Gone, one can assume, will be daily headlines about a player tussling with Bobby Valentine, or constant stories and finger-wagging about player-only meetings and demands made to John Henry. Farrell is a tamer personality, no doubt, and surely less a celebrity than his predecessor.

Maybe—just maybe—the move back to Farrell, who brings with him a know-how of the Sox locker room (he experienced a taste of Boston success as their pitching coach from 2007-2010), will keep the train from running off the tracks so early in 2013.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2013-03-01T07:27:15+00:00 THT & Friends mock draft (Part 2: reaches) http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/tht-friends-mock-draft-part-2-reaches/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/tht-friends-mock-draft-part-2-reaches/#When:09:09:15 Nick Fleder
Let’s pick up where we left off yesterday. I went into the draft with a supremely flawed, half-formed list, so—for as many value picks as I could find littered on the draft board—I know my team was composed of many a reach. Part of that is a symptom of expert drafts (if you choose to label it as such); I’m sure I wasn’t the only one who found himself paranoid that a favorite on my list would be snagged well before his ADP, which is partly why I ended up—blinded by his upside—with Lorenzo Cain in the 13th round (Round 13, Pick 5). Where did you guys jump the gun, or see a considerable reach?


Derek Ambrosino
The first pick in the draft that I thought was a bit of a reach was Starlin Castro (3.11). Whether you agree with me likely hinges on whether you think Castro can and will take a step forward in 2013. Personally, I think we’ve already seen what Castro is. Without a substantial evolution to his overall approach, and barring an unforeseen power surge, I think Castro’s warts tightly cap his ceiling.


Michael Stein
My biggest reach was Shin-Soo Choo at (6.1). He is coming off back-to-back down years that have been mired with injuries and off the field issues. But he has a fresh start in Cincinnati and will also be a free agent at the end of the season. He will have a lot on his plate as he moves to center field, so this was a reach taking him before players such as Chase Headley, Alex Gordon and Brandon Phillips who were drafted later in the round.


Karl de Vries
Is Adam Jones a true 5x5 monster? That’s a question that might not be fully answered until at least the 2014 draft, making my Pacman pick in the third round a bit iffy. I take solace knowing that Jones—now entering his magical age-27 year—posted his best season in 2012, setting career highs in home runs, runs, stolen bases and batting average, and he should provide help in all categories. But on my team, he’d be expected to carry the water of a No. 1 outfielder at that price—the kind of guy who can guarantee 30 homers, 100 RBIs, 20 steals, etc. There’s reason to believe Jones can blossom into an Andrew McCutchen-type player as soon as this year, but he’s still a guy who posts an abysmal walk rate and strikes out too often every year. Such a pick banks heavily on Jones taking yet another step forward, a concerning variable for what should be a slam-dunk decision.


Jesse Sakstrup
For me, Carlos Santana (3.3) as the second catcher off the board was a bit of a stretch. Santana’s 3.6 percent dip in strikeout rate last season was a good sign, but other than that, there just isn’t much evidence that a true breakout is coming. This being a two-catcher league does justify taking catchers earlier, but for reference, Joe Mauer and Yadier Molina were selected in the fifth round and Matt Wieters and Victor Martinez left the board in the ninth (not that anyone could foresee this). Santana has upside, but taking him this early really limits profit potential.


Nick Fleder
I think that’s the single most important concept when filling out re-draft rosters, Jesse. There’s such a fine balance between filling your upside quota and cushioning yourself with unsexy, consistent talent. I would be thrilled—in any keeper league—to have Starling Marte (16.8), Mike Minor (18.8), Tyler Skaggs (25.5), and the aforementioned Cain (13.5) on the same roster. And while that group packs a ton of untapped, unseen potential, I passed up, just by way of example, the more proven bunch of Mike Morse (17.4), Shaun Marcum (21.2), Jaime Garcia (26.2), and Brett Gardner (14.5). Some might call that reckless gambling.


Karl de Vries
Paying for last year’s performance can be just as reckless. Take my selection of Buster Posey (2.3) in the 15th slot overall. Yes, it’s a two-catcher league, so I can be forgiven for wanting an anchor there. But it’s a bit of a panic move with five-category heavyweights like David Wright and Justin Upton remaining on the board. There are only so many elite-level catchers out there, sure, but the position is as deep today as it’s been in years, and his position dictates that he’ll be more vulnerable to injury and days off. Dual eligibility at first base will help, but still, this is a guy who will contribute nothing toward steal totals and be hard-pressed to replicate the .368 BABIP that helped make his batting title possible last year.


Jesse Sakstrup
For me, Carlos Santana (3.3) as the second catcher off the board was a bit of a stretch. Santana’s 3.6 percent dip in strikeout rate last season was a good sign, but other than that, there just isn’t much evidence that a true breakout is coming. This being a two-catcher league does justify taking catchers earlier; still, for reference, Joe Mauer and Yadier Molina were selected in the fifth round and Matt Wieters and Victor Martinez left the board in the ninth (not that anyone could foresee this). Santana has upside, but taking him this early really limits profit potential.


Derek Ambrosino
In your everyday draft, I typically have no problem identifying slews of poor selections. This isn’t your everyday draft though, so very few picks jump out to me as obvious mistakes. Take my biggest potential reach, Aroldis Chapman (9.2), a classic risk/reward pick. The first 10 rounds may not be the best time to take the gamble, and a few mitigating factors (including the reports of decreased velocity and the inevitable innings limit) make it questionable; but he has ace upside, and this pick—perhaps a reach, but certainly defensible—is a carefully calculated risk.


Michael Stein
I’ll throw out my selection of Cliff Lee (4.1) as a possible reach, given his pedestrian 2012. But even that can be defended; I believe he is due to bounce back along with the rest of the Phillies team. Lee is capable of being one of the most dominant fantasy pitchers in the league, but I recognize that I possibly could have waited another two rounds to grab him.


Nick Fleder
"Obvious lesson number whatever": there’s no use in trying to predict the behavior of your draft mate. If you have some trend you identified in a league mate, certainly don’t ignore it; but if you’re blind as I am, trust your gut, and study those average draft positions (even “expert only” ones, as Mock Draft Central offers). It’s the closest you can find to peeking into the average mind. Let’s reconvene tomorrow.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2013-02-14T09:09:15+00:00 THT & Friends mock draft (Part 1: value picks) http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/tht-friends-mock-draft-part-1-value-picks/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/tht-friends-mock-draft-part-1-value-picks/#When:06:52:15 Nick Fleder
Fellas: We all know "sleeper" and "steal" are fluid traits, and that a qualifier in February can see his sneaky status evaporate in March. As draft season progresses into mid-February, though, average positions tend to take shape, and I think where we selected our guys in the THT & Friends draft is be a pretty good indicator of current stock price. Thoughts? Who do you think qualifies on your own roster?

Derek Ambrosino
This being an expert mock draft, it didn’t surprise me that I scanned the draft results and identified more picks I liked than those I didn’t. In discussing “value picks,” I’d probably divide that term into two categories: one being more along the lines of known quantities acquired “on sale,” and the other being the risky picks that hold very attractive value propositions at their price points.

From my own picks, I think a selection that fits the definition of the former is my pick of Justin Verlander (Round 2, Pick 11). Verlander comes off two top-10 seasons. As reticent as I am to pony up for elite starting pitching, I think he’s basically earned first round consideration in standard leagues. So, to get him a full round later seems like a legitimate value. On the riskier-props-bought-low side of things, one of my favorite picks is David Freese (15.11). It seems like there’s a lot of room for profit where with little room for bust.

Brad Johnson
Maybe this is a symptom of an expert league mock, but there was a notable lack of value picks in my opinion. There were two players who I thought absolutely should not have been available when I selected them—Ian Desmond (6.6) and Melky Cabrera (10.6).

Regression is inevitable, but Cabrera is still well-positioned to contribute elite performance in batting average and runs scored with solid performance in home runs and RBI. Desmond may not be as valuable as I expect, but the ability to provide home runs and stolen bases from a weak middle infield class really helps to hold my roster together.

Michael Stein
I agree with the sentiment that it is difficult to get many real value picks doing a mock draft with fellow experts. To that extent, I think I my three guys who represent prime value for where they were selected are Tim Lincecum (10.1), Dexter Fowler (15.12) and Juan Pierre (27.12).

Regarding Lincecum: Chalk his horrendous year up to fatigue, injury, or whatever else. He was awful and was eventually banished to the bullpen, but he thrived there in the playoffs. Now that he has seen teammate Matt Cain get a huge contract extension, Lincecum is motivated to earn his big dollars after collecting two Cy Young awards earlier in his career.

Fowler, meanwhile, will be the magical age of 27 by Opening Day and is coming off a season where he hit .300. As he enters his prime, he will continue to get stronger and turn those extra base hits into long balls over the fence. Amazingly, the player with the best value I drafted was the final pick of the whole draft—Juan Pierre. He will be playing every day and leading off for the Marlins, making him a (health-contingent) lock for 30-40 stolen bases and at least 75 runs scored.

Karl de Vries
For me, fantasy drafts are not unlike bouts of heavy drinking: Whirlwind decisions are made in the blink of an eye, bad judgment is not uncommon, and there's the possibility that you'll wake up with someone whose name you didn't know when the night began. But while there's plenty to criticize about my draft—we'll talk about that some other time—I did make a few picks that I think will stand up to scrutiny, particularly, a couple of Padres.

I'll need to see another season of stud output from Chase Headley (6.3) before I'm completely sold on him as a top-tier third baseman, but I figure he's a strong sixth-round pick given the expectation of at least a 20-15 season and five-category production. Given the position's lack of five-category options—and the uncertainty of guys like Brett Lawrie, Pedro Alvarez and Mike Moustakas, the third basemen who were drafted afterwards—I'm confident Headley will stand up as a decent pick.

And yes, I know Yasmani Grandal (26.3) will be persona non grata for the season's first two months thanks to a PED violation, but still, we're talking about a primo prospect who banged out eight home runs in 226 plate appearances last year—all while playing his home games at Petco Park. For a 26th round pick, he can sit on my bench until he can join Buster Posey in my catching battery sometime in late May.

Jesse Staskrup
I agree with the sentiment that it is much easier to exploit value in a non-writers league, where owners are likely to follow the pre-set draft list much more stringently. In a draft where most of the participants create their own rankings, however, value is both less predictable and usually less frequent, which makes entering the draft with a more agnostic, open-minded approach seem practical, as opposed to a scripted outline denoting where I plan to take certain players.

On my team, I was most pleased with Roy Halladay (8.9) and David Ortiz (10.9), neither of whom I would have had highlighted as must-have players prior to the draft. Though Halliday missed time due to injury and posted sub-par numbers in 2012, he is perennially drafted as a top-three pitcher. His dip in velocity is concerning, but to get him outside the first 90 picks is still a risk that I am extremely comfortable taking.

Ortiz is never a player I feel comfortable taking, due to his age and positional inflexibility, but, by any mathematical measurement, he almost always ends up as one of the best values relative to draft position without vastly outperforming his projected stat line. I will begrudgingly take Ortiz here in nearly any draft and thank myself later.

Nick Fleder
Usually, you’d look to the young talent to define your roster upside: Maybe you’ll get someone late who blossoms into a 20-homer guy (say, Brandon Belt at 24.6) or a flamethrower with entirely untapped All-Star potential (perhaps Shelby Miller at 23.8). Rarely does it come in the form of a once-MVP under the age of 30 who plays a hard-to-fill-with-quality second base, as it did with me in Dustin Pedroia (4.8). We’re talking a guy with a lifetime .311 batting average, who thrice has reached 100 runs scored and has once gone 20/20. I’ll take him behind Jason Kipnis (a batting average liability with downside from last year’s steal totals) and Allen Craig (even more an injury question mark) any day of the week.

How about the best pick of the draft overall?

Derek Ambrosino
Carlos Gomez (22.2) is sure to get ample love here, but I’m not convinced his emergence was real; it’s worth finding out, though, at that price tag.

Brad Johnson
For those unfamiliar with Mock Draft Central, it can be a bit of a challenge to keep track of everybody who is available. I was using my Fantasy Pros rankings (still incomplete) as a rough draft board, and Gomez was so far up my board that I lost track of him in the early-teens. For those trying to do the math at home, I have him ranked immediately behind where Austin Jackson (8.7) was selected. It's worth noting that I have (perhaps bullishly) projected Gomez to bat at the top of the order for most of the season.

Jesse Stakstrup
He nearly put together a 20/40 season in 2012 in just 452 plate appearances, and his per plate appearance numbers from the two seasons prior indicate that such a line would be no fluke given just a few more opportunities.

Nick Fleder
Let's continue this tomorrow, eh?

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2013-02-13T06:52:15+00:00 NL Waiver Wire: Week 21 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-21-2012/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-21-2012/#When:07:50:15 Recap: Brandon League appeared in three one-run victories by the Dodgers in his past five games, with two saves and a win to show for it... Ronald Belisario seems to be the superior pitcher—more ground balls, more biting sliders that League nowadays lacks, and a faster fastball—but League has the experience that Dodgers manager Don Mattinglyapparently assigns heavy weight to... Hope you picked up the former despite my recommendation... John Mayberry has been excellent in September, but unfortunately, his home runs have turned into doubles... He’ll hit a few more down the stretch run, and the plate discipline displayed this month (nine walks in 40 at-bats, compared to 20 in his previous 336 at-bats) is both unexpected and welcomed...Yasmani Grandal’s managed a single home run since we last chatted, and Jimmy Paredes only a single stolen base.

Meanwhile, Casey Kelly’s been a bona fide disaster since his debut... Two home runs surrendered at Coors Field: acceptable; three home runs surrendered at PETCO Park: inexcusable... Opponents have pounded the following pitches over the fence against Kelly: a change-up slightly up from the center of the zone that caught a good deal of the plate (Tyler Colvin), a fastball down the middle that caught a good deal of the plate (Ramon Hernandez), a fastball low and inside that still caught a good deal of the plate (Jason Kubel), a waist-high fastball that caught a good deal of the plate (Aaron Hill), and a hanging curveball that caught a good deal of the plate... I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that Casey Kelly should try to pitch more to the corners of the zone...

For this week, let’s try something new. How about we go category-by-category? No recommendations, no upside plays: you decide where you need the most help in the stretch run, and you target these guys for help.

Runs


Chris Denorfia | Padres | OF | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 4.4 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 48 runs in 300 at-bats
ZiPS ROS: Six runs in 14 games
Scrappy and speedy, Denorfia won’t play every day, but might be your best bet to squeak a few runs out of the waiver wire. He’s tallied a run scored in six out of his last seven starts (all coming in September), scoring multiple times in three of those games. The Padres, by the way, are managing 5.72 runs a game in the current month, and Denorfia is the benefactor as the leadoff man. When he plays, he scores.

Mark Ellis | Dodgers | 2B | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 3.4 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 57 runs in 351 at-bats
ZiPS ROS: Six runs in 13 games
With Dee Gordon relegated to the bench as a result of the Hanley Ramirez Experiment, Mark Ellis has assumed leadoff duties. The Dodgers offense is stagnant as can be—13 runs in their last seven games—but in the past week, the team has a batting average on balls in play of .237. Roll the dice on the luck correcting itself, and those middle-of-the-order guys in blue driving Ellis home.

Stolen bases


Justin Maxwell | Astros | OF | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.3 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: Eight steals, 14 homers in 255 at-bats
ZiPS ROS: Two steals, two homers in 13 games
Maxwell is finding himself with more and more playing time as the Astros hold auditions for 2013, and his power/speed platter should help plenty of owners with just a single switch. In these messy days of the season, he might be unclaimed or ignored: don’t let it stay that way.

Home runs


Scott Hairston | Mets | OF | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.9 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 17 home runs in 318 at-bats
ZiPS ROS: Two home runs in 13 games
The notable lefty-masher should be inserted into some lineups every day: he’s hit three pinch hit home runs, 10 off of lefties, and two in his three games this week. Skill is of secondary importance in the final days; a hot masher who could hit a few more long balls by season’s end is a more valuable commodity than some realize.

Wins


Edgar Gonzalez | Astros | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.9 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: Two wins in two starts
ZiPS ROS: Zero wins in one start
Having an able-working body is more than three-fourths of the game at this point. Unless you’re within striking distance in the ratio categories, why not deploy every starter you can get your hands on? A blowup will hardly make a mark. Take that into consideration when using Gonzalez, who has a shoddy track record from 41 previous major league starts (a near-six ERA) but has flashed an improved slider and control in his two starts thus far with the Astros (both wins). Why not roll the dice?

Strikeouts


Jeff Francis | Rockies | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.6 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 67 strikeouts in 95 innings
ZiPS ROS: Nine strikeouts in 13 innings
With the above point in mind, look at Francis, who's upped his strikeout per nine innings ratio in each month. In September, his ERA of 7.30 is only slightly lower than his 11.68 strikeout per nine innings ratio. Such a rate won’t continue, but there's no harm in seeing if Francis' mixed bag won't produce another dozen or so strikeouts amidst the runs on runs on runs.

Andrew Werner | Padres | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 5.6 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 23 strikeouts in 24-plus innings
ZiPS ROS: N/A
A superior option to Francis, Werner isn’t likely available in many still-competitive leagues. If he is, though, pounce without hesitation; opponents have yet to figure out Werner’s tricks. He generates ground balls, pounds the strike zone early, and throws a sneaky-deceptive mix of a slider, four-seamer, curveball and changeup. Six strikeouts or more in his past three starts is eye-catching; why not see if he can continue the streak?

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2012-09-14T07:50:15+00:00 NL Waiver Wire: Week 19 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-19-2012/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-19-2012/#When:07:29:15 Recap: A sore knee soured the Domonic Brown recommendation, but he’s here for the long haul... Soon, I’m confident, his miniscule home run rate will rise, and his line drives should keep his average from becoming a liability.. Adam Ottavino didn’t vulture any wins, but he pitched five innings over the week and was particularly effective in three home frames versus the potent Dodgers lineup... Ottavino and Rex Brothers should tally a few more wins apiece in the bloody pitching mess in Colorado...

And now, a moment of silence for the September fantasy potential of Billy Hamilton, who isn't likely to be appearing in Cincinnati to flash his piss-your-pants speed...Jedd Gyorko, meanwhile, is pressing as a promotion looms; he struck out in seven of his 27 at-bats this week, but still managed nine runs driven home...Can’t love him thanks to that park, but he should be a mixed-league worthy asset...Collin McHugh will be back up in early September and is worth a long, intense look after his startling debut....

Meanwhile, the big news of the week was the Jerry Sands—er, Adrian Gonzalez—blockbuster trade; Sands is technically a PTBNL, but should he make his way successfully to Pawtucket in the next few weeks, he’d be an asset splitting time between left field and first base....Joe Saunders was sent into the heat of the exciting AL East race, so Tyler Skaggs’ rotation spot is safe—that is, unless he continues to display such erratic control...A 2.92 ERA will play, but it’s mostly a mirage with his seven walks in less than 13 innings (two hit batsmen) and two home runs allowed... His fly ball tendencies displayed so far aren’t going to play well at Chase Field, especially when he catches so much of the plate on his fastballs (though Justin Ruggiano and Bronson Arroyo aren't complaining) so if you must start him, do so when he adventures out of Arizona...

Sure enough, Gregor Blanco is being spelled by the far inferior Francisco Peguero... Javier Lopez is getting some burn in save situations on the fascinating Giants, as was promised by me...Brett Jackson is the latest all-or-nothing slugger to make way onto the fantasy radar; the prototype is often valuable in moderation, and hell, one month is defined as moderation... I’m buying... And finally, Eric Stults! A week after I teased him for pitching too much to contact, he struck out nine in 13 innings, a marked improvement from his previous four over two starts...If you're keeping track at home, Stults is once again worthy of your attention, particularly when he takes to the always lovely PETCO.


Ronald Belisario | Dodgers | RP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 2.1 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 2.75 ERA / 1.01 WHIP / 8.08 K/9
ZIPS ROS: 3.60 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 8.10 K/9
Probably long gone and probably in for a short run, Belisario nonetheless gets the proper and precedented treatment for those passing through the closer carousel; pick him up for a hot minute and enjoy a couple of saves. You know the drill... But why him and not Brandon League? Plain and simple, his repertoire is better than League's (faster fastball, superior slider) and he generates ground balls like his bullpen colleague used to a few years back (which is to say he generates a ton of groundballs). That he got the first opportunity when Kenley Jansen was unavailable is telling of Manager Don Mattingly’s trust in him; plus, Jansen is hardly guaranteed a swift return.
Recommendation: To summarize, Belisario is a skilled bullpen arm with the tools to survive, but will face off, one presumes, with a former All-Star closer and an unknown time frame for the interim. Buy into the admittedly sticky situation, but don’t stake anyone who isn't expendable. Score one for some obvious logic!

John Mayberry Jr. | Phillies | 1B-OF | 6 percent Yahoo ownership | 6.5 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .240 / .282 / .401
ZIPS ROS: .244 / .298 / .407
My man crush on Mayberry is well-documented and hardly explicable, but it shocked me, in case you hadn’t heard, that Charlie Manuel promised the kid full-time at-bats after a scorching second half of 2011 and failed to deliver on that promise. Once Manuel started benching Mayberry, the kid seemed to press even more, sacrificing plate discipline for the chance of a home run he so craved. When the Phillies cleaned house with their outfielders, they finally put Mayberry in charge of left-field for good. No surprise to this author that as he’s started a dozen games in a row, he's responded positively (hitting .355 over the span). Three homers later, and he should be on your fantasy squad—no questions asked. Fine, fine, I’ll field one question. You in the red. What did Mayberry do last August-September, you ask? Nine home runs, 23 runs batted in, a couple of steals and a .301 batting average.
Recommendation: Like I said, ditch injured dead weight (Emilio Bonifacio, Matt Joyce, Peter Bourjos, David Ortiz), a struggling or demoted pitcher (Lance Lynn, perhaps), or one of those streaky teases (Colby Rasmus, Jeff Francoeur), and hope Manuel will continue to let the car drive.

Casey Kelly | Padres | SP | 1 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.4 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 0.00 ERA / 0.83 WHIP / 6.00 K/9 (one start)
ZIPS ROS: 5.14 ERA / 1.64 WHIP / 5.79 K/9
I’ve never cared much for Kelly as a prospect, but his skill set is well tailored to his home park: most of the balls let in play are grounders, and the fly balls are likely to be swallowed up by the spacious outfield and warning track. While he’s not “a huge velocity guy,” his “smooth, efficient delivery” should help him thrive in select environments. For what it’s worth, I’d always viewed Kelly as an underperformer in the minors—his strikeout totals were often hovering at or below the seven per nine range—but this year is a different story. His major league equivalent in four starts between Double-A and Triple-A: 2.48 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an uncharacteristic 10.2 strikeout per nine innings ratio. My mind has been changed.
Recommendation: Any Padres pitcher can be fashioned into an asset. Kelly, someone who's always generated at least some praise from scouts, can rise above that, ever. He's worth grabbing despite the potential growing pains.

Jimmy Paredes | Astros | 3B | 0 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.1 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .318 / .348 / .477 (Triple-A)
ZIPS ROS: .250 / .274 / .363
Oliver believes in Paredes’ speed, so why shouldn’t you? His 34 steals in 120 Pacific Coast League games translate to a rate of 46 per full season, or .283 per game. While I wouldn’t expect any batting average help out of Paredes, a former third baseman deftly converted into a future center fielder (and current right fielder) by Jeff Luhnow and company, he’ll run on an Astros team that craves speed. If your fantasy squad is anything like the Astros in that quality (and that quality alone), Paredes is your man.
Recommendation: Despite his shortcomings, Paredes’ prowess for snagging a base will outweigh what could be an ugly average. Though he certainly lit up the PCL (hardly a major accomplishment), the hits are simply an added bonus to his main event: speed.

Yasmani Grandal | Padres | C | 9 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.5 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .283 / .369 / .519
ZIPS ROS: .242 / .338 / .387
Got a black hole at catcher? Is Mayberry, most highly recommended source of power likely to be found, already claimed? Check if Yasmani Grandal is there for the taking. He is like any other sane hitter in his affinity for Coors Field, where he slugged two homers in a late June game; and—would you know it!—he starts a three game set there today. Three more games to come apiece in Arizona and Milwaukee make Grandal a keep-around guy in September for that rare, fleeting power from a catcher.
Recommendation: If you own Kurt Suzuki, Michael McKenry, Carlos Ruiz (for whatever reason) or Russell Martin, I’d quickly make the switch. He’s better than a number of big name backstops out there.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2012-08-31T07:29:15+00:00