The Hardball Times -- Nick Fleder http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2012 2012-05-26T10:48:15+00:00 NL Waiver Wire: Week 7 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-71/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-71/#When:09:44:15 Clayton Richard | Padres | SP | 2 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.3 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 4.63 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / 5.2 K/9
Oliver rest of season: 3.96 ERA / 1.36 WHIP / 5.9 K/9
Okay. Let’s ignore the ugly ERA. Let’s ignore the historically ugly WHIPs (it’ll get worse for Richard). Recognize that if he’s available on your waiver wire in an NL-only league, he’s likely the best you can do… for this reason: Over his career, he’s put up a 3.23 ERA and 1.21 WHIP at home, where his strikeout to walk ratio goes up over half a mark and his home run rate dips. This year, the difference is even more staggering: His 2.30 ERA at home compares favorably (to say the least) to his 6.68 mark away. His WHIP at home? 0.91. His WHIP away from PETCO? 1.61.

Get him. Start him for his home starts, and therein you have a more-than-valuable starting pitcher.
Recommendation: Worth adding in NL-only leagues and deeper mixed formats.

Todd Frazier | Reds | 3B | 2 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.4 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .250 / .294 / .547
Oliver ROS: .246 / .305 / .447
Look at the slugging percentage, not the on-base percentage. You aren’t looking Frazier’s way because of his plate discipline—he strikes out five times for every walk he draws. You’re looking for power stats, and you’re looking in the right place. Oliver loves Frazier’s power potential, putting him down for 19 home runs over his next 412 at-bats and 20-21 in the forecasted 2013-2015 seasons. His isolated power of .297 ranks 13th among those with 50 or more plate appearances, behind the likes of Josh Hamilton, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun and Edwin Encarnacion.

With Scott Rolen beat, battered, and broken—shoulder troubles and poor early season luck have him below the replacement level and on the DL currently (with no timetable)—Frazier is finally getting his time to shine.
Recommendation: Worth adding in all formats.

Matt Adams | Cardinals | 1B, OF | 17 percent Yahoo ownership | 10.3 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .286 / .375 / .357
Oliver ROS: .270 / .311 / .463
Chances are Matt Adams is already snagged in your league, thanks in part, no doubt, to his incredible hitting prowess displayed in the minors. He hasn’t hit below .300, which includes 32 homers in 2011 and a whopping nine in just 37 games this year—just ridiculous power. One can expect a healthy mix of power and average to carry through to the majors, and Lance Berkman’s out for the foreseeable future; something along the lines of six to eight weeks. Matty: it’s your time to shine.
Recommendation: Worth adding in all leagues.

Norichika Aoki | Brewers | OF | 1 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.1 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .297 / .373 / .446
Oliver ROS: .298 / .366 / .397
Here are some telling stats: Aoki has won three batting titles in Japan, and he’s started 10 of his 13 major league games in the month of May. Which, in case a breakdown is needed, equals a talented player getting more opportunity. Nyjer Morgan’s been well below the replacement level, the first base hole has meant Corey Hart’s getting occasional burn in the infield, and Aoki’s risen to the occasion with a near .300 batting mark.

He won’t hit for power, and will steal scarcely—think a better Kosuke Fukudome, as our preaseason Oliver player card suggests—but he can be of assistance in the batting average department. That’s worth something, ain’t it?
Recommendation: Worth adding in all NL-only leagues and deeper mixed formats.

Jedd Gyorko | Padres | 2B/3B | 0 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.0 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .269 / .352 / .463 (Double-A and Triple-A)
Oliver ROS: No projections.
Gyorko, the short slugger who put up a 31 home run, 114 runs batted in, and a .304 /.358 /.512 major league equivalent last year between High-A and Double-A, finally touched the Triple-A level and is knocking on promotion’s door. Newbie Alexi Amarista and Andy Parrino are splitting time at second base in Friar-town, and though Gyorko’s minor league numbers this year leave a lot to be desired—particularly a higher batting average, which he is more than capable of providing—he’s improving in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League.

He should be up within the next month if he continues his early mashing, which includes two homers and an .933 OPS in his first 30 at-bats.
Recommendation: Worth stashing in most formats.

Chris Heston | Giants | SP | 0 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.0 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 0.61 ERA / 0.82 WHIP / 7.4 K/9 (Double-A)
Oliver ROS: No projections.
With nothing but slim pickings at the major league level, I figured it’d be a proper time to scan Double-A for standout talent to put on my radar. At the top of the list lands Chris Henson, who’s doing everything right in Double-A (with a little bit of help from lady luck)—he has a 4.36 strikeout to walk ratio, a 2.13 FIP, pinpoint control (one wild pitch and no hit by pitches allowed in nearly 59 innings) and a .177 batting average against.

Before you dismiss the stats as a product of weak competition or a low batting average on balls in play, take a look at his major league equivalents from the aforementioned ~59 innings: a 2.18 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. He’ll pitch in the best pitcher’s ballpark in the whole land when he gets his shot, and though you may not see him until September with a powerful Giants rotation, leading them toward what looks to be a tight Wild Card race, you can be sure he’ll be on Brian Sabean’s radar should injury hit or should the team find itself in need of a late summer shakeup.
Recommendation: Worth stashing in the deepest NL-only leagues and keeper leagues, and worth monitoring in the rest.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2012-05-25T09:44:15+00:00 NL Waiver Wire: Week 6 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-61/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-61/#When:09:48:15 Anthony Bass | Padres | SP | 17 percent Yahoo ownership | 6 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 2.87 ERA / 1.13 WHIP / 8.6 K/9
Oliver ROS: 4.10 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 6.3 K/9
Bass is the latest bullpen-to-rotation convert in San Diego (in the same vein as a one Cory Luebke) whose profile raises questions of why he wasn’t in the rotation in the first place. While his strikeout ratio is likely unsustainable, Bass is finding mostly sustainable success with a groundball rate above 50 percent. His ERA is 2.87 with a normal strand rate and three plus pitches—his 3.20 xFIP means regression will be minimal.

Soon, hitters will start making more contact with Bass—his rate is well below average. That isn’t to say he won’t continue to thrive in a massive home park with an above average defense.
Recommendation: Worthy of an add in all formats.

Gregor Blanco | Giants | OF | 4 percent Yahoo ownership | 7.9 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .283 / .371 / .400
Oliver ROS: .245 / .336 / .340
The near-30 journeyman found success at the major league level last year, where he was essentially league average at 2.28 WAR/162 games, and this year, his offense has jumped with an increased walk rate. It’d be easy to dismiss it as unsustainable if he hadn’t have posted spiked rates in his brief Triple-A service time last year, but it looks legitimate. With a .400 on base percentage (sure to fall, but still impressive), Blanco should steal more than 6.5 bases per 100 at-bats.

He should handle leadoff duties for the Giants most of the time with his ideal mix of speed and patience, and should be a boon to fantasy rosters for the remainder of the year.
Recommendation: Worthy of an add in deeper mixed leagues and NL-only formats.

Bobby Abreu | Dodgers | OF | 3 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.3 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .255 / .300 / .382
Oliver ROS: .261 / .359 / .408
Abreu has stolen 20 bases in each of the past 13 years yet hasn’t swiped a single base in his 60 plate appearances this year. That’ll change, and his plate discipline should return to incredibly consistent career norms, too. I’d wager that the playing time jam in Los Angeles led to some pressing on the part of old Bobby, but with Matt Kemp on the DL, he should find a comfort zone at least temporarily in Chavez Ravine. Buy him now, worry later.
Recommendation: Worthy of an add in all formats.

John Mayberry Jr. | Phillies | OF | 5 percent Yahoo ownership | 2.8 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .234 / .255 / .319
Oliver ROS: .254 / .304 / .436
Laynce Nix hit the DL the day of my Week 5 column, which leaves a vacuum of playing time that Mayberry is likely to fill. I say likely because Mayberry was promised a full-time gig at the beginning of the season by manager Charlie Manuel, yet has found himself on the lineup bill for only 20 games.

In the past seven days, he’s hit a homer, driven in three runs, and hit six times in 23 at-bats, which constitutes as improvement across the board. Power will come, as his lifetime .216 isolated power can vouch for.
Recommendation: Worthy of an add in deeper mixed leagues and on NL-only rosters.

Everth Cabrera | Padres | SS | 0 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.0 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: No stats accrued
Oliver ROS: .233 / .302 / .307
Cabrera was once the hyped prospect who stole 73 bases in Single-A ball and was on the fast track to the majors. But a speedster who doesn’t hit or field with much success rarely survives at the major league level, especially when his success rate with steals hovers around 70 percent and was at 63 percent in his most recent major league stint. While it doesn’t seem like he’s figured out how to hit sustainably and consistently—he’s thriving off of batted ball luck in Triple-A currently—he is nonetheless putting up video game numbers, and can provide steals if and when the Padres clean house.
Recommendation: Worthy of a stash on all rosters that crave speed.

Anthony Rizzo | Cubs | 1B | 3 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.8 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: No stats accrued
Oliver ROS: .255 / .324 / .474
New year, same story with Anthony Rizzo. He’s mashing at Triple-A, yet has made no apparent progress that might carry over the major leagues. Perhaps new seasoning, a new mindset, or competition in the form of Bryan LaHair will push Rizzo to new, replacement-level heights. He’s striking out slightly less than last year, and walking slightly less as well—and while his power will play better in Chicago, expectations should be held in check. He’ll get some burn though; LaHair can be pushed to the outfield and the Cubs have a typical Cubs record. Rizzo will hit a few homers when he's up, for sure.
Recommendation: Worthy of a stash in all deeper mixed formats and NL-only leagues.

Trevor Bauer | D-Backs | SP | 6 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.3 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: No stats accrued
Oliver ROS: 4.97 ERA / 1.43 WHIP / 8.4 K/9
Bauer’s made an appearance on this column before, but his promotion seems around the corner, and thus he should be picked up if he’s still on your league’s wire. While his 4.8 walks per nine innings leaves a lot to be desired, he made a clear adjustment in his May 11 start and walked a season-low one in seven sterling innings. He also struck out nine, and has given up only seven hits and hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last two starts, totaling 14 innings.

With Patrick Corbin only mildly impressive in his four starts and with Joe Saunders predictably slipping, room may open up quickly for Bauer if he keeps pushing improvement like he has. Triple-A, here he comes.
Recommendation: Worthy of a stash in all formats.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2012-05-18T09:48:15+00:00 NL Waiver Wire: Week 5 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-51/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-51/#When:09:13:15 Christian Friedrich | Rockies | SP | 2 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.3 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 3.00 ERA / 0.90 WHIP / 8.1 K/9
Oliver Rest of season: No projections.

A sparkling debut from Friedrich has him at the top of my pickup list, a fact hard to believe after back-to-back 5.00+ ERAs in Double-A each of the last two years. Friedrich harnessed his control nicely in his 2012 Triple-A debut, where he posted a 6.75 strikeout to walk ratio. The pinpoint control was on display when he struck out seven and issued only one walk against the San Diego Padres on Wednesday. If he can continue to limit his walks—and that led to newfound success in the minors—he’ll surely find a level of success at the majors.

Recommendation: Worthy of adding in all formats.

Laynce Nix | Phillies | 1B, OF | 2 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.7 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .326 / .392 / .587
Oliver Rest of season projection: .267 / .322 / .475

A little late on the uptake here, but Nix provides ample power and should have a share of at-bats for the next month. Ryan Howard will soon begin his rehab, but will need time to round into game shape, and during his absence, Nix has slashed two homers, totaled 11 RBIs, and hit to the tune of a .326/.392/.587. He’s hit 15 and 16 long balls in the last two years, respectively, and should be good for three homers (assuming Howard doesn’t suffer a setback). Better late than never, and the wire’s awfully thin.

Recommendation: Worthy of adding in all single-format leagues, or on teams that need a quick power fix.

Taylor Green | Brewers | 2B | 0 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.0 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .287 / .363 / .396 (Triple-A)
Oliver ROS: .263 / .326 / .426

Green impressed to the tune of 22 homers and a .336 average in just 121 Triple-A games last season, and though his power has sapped this year, he should hit enough to justify placement at a middle infield spot on some rosters. Alex Gonzalez and Mat Gamel both went down with major injuries, yielding some playing time to the versatile Green. He should qualify at first base soon enough, but carries second base eligibility in most leagues. The position versatility should make him valuable enough to add in single formats.

Recommendation: Worthy of adding in NL-only leagues.

Randall Delgado | Braves | SP | 3 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.5 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 4.54 ERA / 1.40 WHIP / 8.3 K/9
Oliver ROS: 5.59 ERA / 1.57 WHIP / 7.0 K/9

I take back what I said about Delgado—at least for now. Recent trends look better, as he’s walked only three in his last 13+ innings while striking out a fair 10. His peripheral stats point to more positive ERA comedown, and though his high walk rate might lead to WHIP troubles, he’s one of the few feasible starters who may be available on the waiver wire. I’d still prefer Kris Medlen to him, but opportunity is most of the game (or something like that).

Recommendation: Worthy of adding on all teams that need a starter.

Tyler Greene | Cardinals | 2B, SS, OF | 2 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.0 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .226 / .317 / .434
Oliver ROS: .254 / .329 / .398

The multi-eligible, speedy Greene is finally getting some burn in the weak St. Louis infield, and his 6.6 career speed rating could lead to some high steal totals. He had 11 steals in just 121 plate appearances last year, and despite high strikeout totals, can certainly challenge 20 in limited at-bats this year. He certainly isn’t a quality major league asset—his 171 games have shown him to be a below average hitter by approximately 20 percent, and a below average fielder. But speed plays (see Dee Gordon), and speed kills (in a positive way, of course). How many other shortstops are on the wire?

Recommendation: Worthy of adding on all speed-hungry teams.

Speculative saves of the week
James Russell | Cubs | RP | 6 percent Yahoo ownership | 2.3 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 0.80 ERA / 1.33 WHIP / 8.0 K/9
Oliver ROS: 4.81 ERA / 1.39 WHIP / 6.2 K/9

One-half of the Marmolian replacement hasn’t gotten a save opportunity yet, but compares favorably to his other half, Rafael Dolis. His strikeout to walk ratio is more than three times higher than Dolis’, and his FIP is well below average at 2.38 (despite his 4.46 xFIP that spells trouble looming).

He’s a soft tosser, but the converted starter should get the first chance when the fireballer slips up. (I say should rather than will because closer situations are incredibly fluid and unpredictable—case in point being the man in the seat getting the first crack at the job. Might Marmol reclaim the job? Perhaps. But he's found little success in the role over the past year and change...) Dolis’ minor league track record of pitching to contact (to only mild success) should certainly lead to a slip up. Shouldn’t it?

Recommendation: Worthy of adding on all rosters chasing saves.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2012-05-11T09:13:15+00:00 NL Waiver Wire: Week 4 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-41/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-41/#When:05:43:15 Garrett Jones | Pirates | 1B | 4 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.1 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .268 / .276 /.482
Oliver Rest of season projection: .263 / .325 / .460

Chances are that if you play in an NL-only league, Garrett Jones will not be available. If he is by some small miracle, though, there should be no hesitation to scoop him up. He’s an above-average hitter with impressive enough (read: 20 home run) power who won’t hurt in the batting average department by nature of his platoon situation.

Dual eligibility is an added plus; he should reach outfield eligibility in leagues with five-game thresholds within the next few weeks. Don’t forget that Jones, despite being relegated to part-time duties this year, has been a top-150 player in Roto standard leagues for the past three years.

Recommendation: Worthy of adding in all leagues.


Joe Wieland | Padres | SP | 1 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.2 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 4.91 ERA / 1.32 WHIP / 8.2 K/9
Oliver ROS: 4.09 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / 6.3 K/9

Never possessing overwhelming stuff in the minors, Wieland nevertheless put together gleaming ERAs from High-A ball onward, and one might be smart to bet on that trend continuing in the majors. Yes, his home run rate looks ugly through four major league starts, but xFIP has him adjusted to a 3.91 ERA when his home run rate falls.

When it falls?! you cry. How do you know it’ll fall?! Three of Wieland’s five homers allowed have had “just enough” to clear the fences, and one was labeled as “lucky.” They would’ve been homers in three parks at most, certainly not PETCO. While a PETCO pitcher isn’t an automatic endorsement (see: Dustin Moseley and Clayton Richard, among others), it should suppress the homers. The rest of the positive ERA regression ought to, and will be, left in his control: his strikeout to walk ratio never sneaked below 3.00 in his minor league career. So far it’s been 2.50. Buy him now—at the very least he’ll be a home-start streamer.

Recommendation: Worthy of adding in deeper mixed and NL-only leagues.


Starling Marte | Pirates | OF | 0 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.1 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .000 / .000 / .000
Oliver ROS: .284 / .324 / .417

If you’re feeling a little speculative, why not take a shot on the young Starling? He’s bringing his trademark power-speed (emphasis on the speed) to Triple-A, where he’s playing nearly 50 percent above league average with a .276/.351/.483 triple-slash line. Not otherworldly by any stretch, but impressive. Also impressive: Marte is exhibiting a newfound sense of patience at the dish, where his 7.1 percent walk rate trumps his previous high of 4.9 percent. He’s making the necessary adjustments and excelling on the base paths (his nine stolen bases in 84 plate appearance are hardly impressive when seen in the context of his insane 9.8 speed rating).

As for that playing time… Jose Tabata functions as the possible castoff after a miserable start. Tabata’s flashed some potential, especially in his 2.1 WAR, 102 game-introduction in 2010, but he’s suffering at the dish because of his dwindling plate discipline. Some proper batted-ball luck might get Tabata back to the replacement level, but when Marte starts pushing for .300 at Triple-A, he might want to look out.

Recommendation: Worthy of stashing in most NL-only leagues.


A.J. Ellis | Dodgers | C | 3 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.7 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .365 / .449 / .468
Oliver ROS: .256 / .368 /.340

Ellis, too, will likely be owned, as he should, in all two-catcher formats, and he’s probably starting in most NL-only leagues as well. He’s playing practically every day behind the dish on the surprising Dodgers, and is sporting an impressive 11 non-intentional walks in 19 games. The keen eye at the plate helps support Ellis’ plus batting average, which should hover around .275 when all is said and done.

The Dodgers will keep running the relatively unknown Ellis out there—he sports an impressive 1.1 WAR so far this year, third among catchers (behind the elite Yadier Molina and Matt Wietes tandem). And as such, you’ll get a non-black hole catcher; someone who trots out there four to five times a week and puts up few 0-fers.

Recommendation: Worthy of adding in all two-catcher and NL-only leagues.


Kris Medlen | Braves |/RP | 1 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.2 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 3.00 ERA / 1.00 WHIP / 3.0 K/9
Oliver ROS: 3.36 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / 7.9 K/9

While top prospect Randall Delgado has impressive pedigree, it’s a wonder the Braves have stuck with him over Kris Medlen in what’ll be a tight, to-the-wire divisional race. Delgado has control issues and is giving up a hefty number of line drives, while Medlen is handling swingman duties despite past success as a starter.

He may be recently removed from Tommy John surgery, but Medlen’s fastball is moving faster than it did pre-surgery, and his curveball and change-up are both getting positive reviews from pitch values. His career ERA (3.66), FIP (3.53), and xFIP (3.56) all trump marks from Delgado (albeit with a small sample size from the youngster), and if he doesn’t steal the rotation spot from Randall, he’ll certainly fill-in when the first injury hits the Braves’ starting rotation.

No, Julio Teheran isn’t a concern, despite what you’re thinking. His 1.30 strikeout to walk ratio in Triple-A just ain’t gonna cut it.

Recommendation: Worthy of a stash in deeper mixed and NL-only leagues, and worthy of adding in all leagues that value middle relievers.



Speculative saves of the week

Bryan Shaw | Diamondbacks | RP | 11 percent Yahoo ownership | 4.5 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 1.64 ERA / 0.91 WHIP / 9.0 K/9
Oliver ROS: 4.65 ERA / 1.42 WHIP / 5.8 K/9

Chances are that Shaw’s owned in most every competitive, saves-starving league, but in case he’s not, he’ll get the title of “Guy most likely to end up with 10 or more saves,” for this week. He’s throwing a more effective slider this year more often, and is generating whiffs on the pitch 18 percent of the time (according to Brooks Baseball). His cutters—the staple of his repertoire—are getting an average rate of whiffs and are often turning into ground balls when put in play (61 percent).

Shaw may have leapfrogged normal J.J. Putz injury fill-in David Hernandez, and though his similar pitcher readings consist of a list that includes Mike Leake, Jeff Karstens, and Casey Janssen (not exactly closer material among that crew), he’s proving that his controlled ways can work wonders in the late innings, too.

Recommendation: Worthy of an add in all leagues, particularly those that value middle relievers.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2012-05-04T05:43:15+00:00 NL Waiver Wire: Week 3 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-31/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-31/#When:09:19:15 Jon Rauch | Mets | RP | 9 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.8 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 0.00 ERA / 0.50 WHIP / 3.6 K/9
Oliver Rest of season projection: 3.27 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / 6.5 K/9

First things first: Someone want to take a stab at why Rauch is owned in only 1.8 percent of ESPN leagues? Are more single-format leagues hosted on Yahoo? Did more serious owners flock to the Yahoo platform this season? Confuses the hell out of me.

That said; if Jon Rauch is on your waiver wire and saves come at a premium in your league, pick him up immediately. I am one of Frank Francisco’s biggest fans—he went for next to nothing in drafts this year, pitches in an extremely pitcher-friendly home park, and consistently puts up gaudy strikeout numbers. The concern has always been rooted in his injury history, and the concern is no less this year.

Rauch is far less talented (his career xFIP, for example, is more than half a run higher than Francisco’s) but has more career saves and is the obvious next in line if (when) Francisco gets injured. That, or Terry Collins will act irrationally, look past Francisco’s 2.36 FIP (and at his 7.36 ERA), and will replace him outright as the closer. Rauch will end the season with more than 10 saves—book it.

Recommendation: Worthy of adding in all leagues.

Juan Nicasio | Rockies | SP | 7 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.4 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 4.76 ERA / 1.46 WHIP / 6.7 K/9
Oliver ROS: 4.79 ERA / 1.41 WHIP / 6.5 K/9

I pimped Nicasio after an impressive spring, and so far he’s done nothing to make me look like the prophet I feel I am. But fear not: brighter days are on the horizon for the young fireballer. Not only is his home run rate too high (even for Coors Field), but he’s been unlucky in terms of opponents making contact (read: they’ve made far too much contact).

His high batting average on balls in play is related to the 90.1 percent contact rate against, where the league average last year was 80.7 percent. Additionally, opposing hitters are making contact in the zone (Z-Contact percentage) a whopping 93.2 percent of the time, where the league average is 87.9 percent. Finally, few are swinging and missing when facing Nicasio, as his swinging strike percentage is a mere 4.4 percent (the league average is a tick below double that). His profile will regress to the mean and he’ll get more people out—few (if any) on waivers have as much raw talent as this youngster.

Recommendation: Worthy of adding in all leagues.

Chris Schwinden | Mets | SP | 0 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.0 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: (in Triple-A) 2.05 ERA / 1.05 WHIP / 5.3 K/9
Oliver ROS: 5.00 ERA / 1.47 WHIP / 6.0 K/9

Schwinden will assume Mike Pelfrey’s spot in the rotation with news of Pelfrey’s elbow injury. In four starts with the Mets last year, he exhibited fair control (with a 2.83 strikeout to walk ratio) but an inability to strand runners. He complements a sub-90 mph fastball with a cutter, curveball and change-up, with the last pitch clocking in with the best pitch value. A flyball pitcher, he should benefit greatly from the confines of Citi, which, despite being moved in, have still suppressed any offense; (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor" title="it is the third most pitcher-friendly stadium in 2012">it is the third most pitcher-friendly stadium in 2012, behind AT&T Park and PETCO).

The projection systems (save Oliver) like Schwinden, who was pegged for a 3.93 ERA by Marcel, a 4.29 mark by Bill James, and a 4.23 mark by Steamer, with varyingly respectable WHIPs (between 1.30 and 1.43). Don’t buy him for ratio stats, but rather as a match-up and splits play. There’s value in that, though.

Recommendation: Worthy of adding in deep NL-only rosters.

Tony Campana | Cubs | OF | 3 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.2 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .385/.429/.385
Oliver ROS: .267/.305/.324

The Marlon Byrd trade left the Chicago center field job for Reed Johnson to share with Campana, a short speedster who made waves last year with excellent fielding metrics and cheetah-like speed. He stole 24 bases in a mere 155 at-bats, and while Brett Jackson is among the youngsters waiting at Triple-A (Anthony Rizzo’s imminent promotion and Bryan LaHair’s movement to the outfield is another scenario worth watching), Campana already has four steals in 16 at-bats with a high batting average.

He’ll be worth several weeks of Dee Gordon-like production at the very least, which amounts to game-changing potential considering the category at hand here. Buy now, worry later.

Recommendation: Worthy of adding on all NL-only rosters that need speed.

Speculative saves of the week

Clay Hensley | Giants | RP | 3 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.5 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 0.00 ERA / 1.11 WHIP / 11.4 K/9
Oliver ROS: 3.91 ERA / 1.31 WHIP / 6.5 K/9

A converted starter, Hensley is among those on the saves carousel in San Francisco, it seems. As a reliever, he’s found success as recently as 2010, where his 1.5 wins above replacement had him among the top 20 relievers in baseball. Key to his success is his excellent groundball rate, which hovers above the 50 percent mark for his career. So long as he can limit his walks to a respectable level (his 2010 strike to walk ratio was 2.66), he’ll vulture a couple of saves where Santiago Casilla (the clear-cut closer in my estimation) and Javier Lopez (the lefty specialist) cannot.

Recommendation: Worthy of adding in leagues with innings caps or holds, or all deeper NL-only formats.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2012-04-27T09:19:15+00:00 The state of the AL East http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-state-of-the-al-east1/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-state-of-the-al-east1/#When:09:05:15

The 2011 version of the American League East featured three of the five best teams in the league, a crazy finish to the Wild Card crown, and only one team under .500, a feat no other division could claim. The last bit holds true at this writing—the only team with more losses than wins at this juncture is the lowly, tumbling Red Sox, who have exceeded all expectations of suck to go 4-10 in this early going, thanks, in part, to a bullpen in shambles, injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury and Andrew Bailey, and a starting rotation mired by bad control and worse results.

Many expected a four-horse race throughout the summer, with Baltimore expected to slip out of contention in, say, early April. Indeed, it has been a four-horse race in the first weeks, but Boston’s demise and Baltimore’s rise (however much of a mirage it is) are eye-catchers. Every team has its issues, enigmas, and interests thus far, though. How about we start with those BoSox?

*Playoff odds and record as of April 22, 2012


Boston Red Sox (4-10 with 21 percent playoff odds)


Bobby Valentine: “If this isn’t the bottom, then we’ll find some new ends to Earth, I guess.”

Who gets the blame for the Sox’ early-season tumble is only partly relevant. The fact that there is blame to be dished is the storyline. It’s been ugly all around Beantown.

The post-Bailey injury closer-by-committee of Alfredo Aceves and Mark Melancon (prized offseason acquisition from the Houston Astros and a friendly reminder that you probably shouldn’t pay much of anything for saves) has combined for a startling -0.8 WAR in this short time, and six homers in five innings pitched between them. They have a replacement-level starting rotation, third worst in baseball, so far.

They are hovering around league average in terms of offensive output. They are falling like toy soldiers, with Bailey absent for months, the brittle Ellsbury out for “six to eight weeks” (yeah, right), and a highly offended Kevin Youkilis playing with no heart, apparently (or is that not an injury?).

It still is early, and three offseason additions have been playing extremely well, to provide a silver lining; Ryan Sweeney, Cody Ross, and Mike Aviles have combined to hit .312 with five homers. Will Marlon Byrd, newest addition to the club, find the same success in a change of scenery?

Surprise performance: Kevin Youkilis, suddenly inept at the plate
.190/.271/.310 triple-slash; 29 percent strikeout rate; six percent walk rate in 48 plate appearances
Youkilis wasn’t exactly himself last year; he was a little unlucky at the dish, enough to leave his batting average in the .260 range, and saw his strikeout rate climb from the previous year.

The trend has continued, as that rate is more than 10 percent higher than his career mark, and his walk rate has been halved. He was, of course, subject of a press call-out by his manager, who accused him of not being “as physically or emotionally into the game as he’s been in the past for some reason.” It sure looks that way.


Tampa Bay Rays (8-7 with 48 percent playoff odds)


Matt Moore: “Command, especially of my fastball, wasn't quite where it needed to be, but it will be there soon enough."

Where’s the shoo-in for AL Rookie of the Year, the guy who dominated the minors, majors, and postseason at various times last year? Moore isn’t striking out anyone, is giving up homers, and has put together a weak 0.92 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His fastball velocity is down, his curveball velocity is down, his sinker velocity is down, and bad luck is not the culprit. Yet despite going 0-3 in Moore’s three starts, the Rays sit comfortably in the thick of things in the division.

Their offense is rated as sixth-best in baseball, even with poor early-season readings of their fielding, usually a specialty. Offseason acquisition Carlos Pena picked up where he left off in 2010, bombing three early-season blasts without egregious strikeout rates. B.J. Upton has played in only two games, and the middle infield situation is ugly with Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, Jeff Keppinger, and Elliot Johnson, but the concerns in Tampa are focused on the pitching side of things.

Speaking of which, Jeremy Hellickson’s control has taken yet another step back, and David Price has seen similar problems. All three youngster starting pitchers are out of line with career and projected trends, so positive regression is likely in order. And when it comes, the Rays will be feelin’ good.

Surprise performance: Matt Moore, suddenly devoid of control and stunted in velocity
94.2 mph fastball; 93.7 mph sinker; 7.5 percent whiff rate on the fastball
The four-seamer has dropped about two whole miles per hour this season for Moore, and the sinker has seen an even greater drop. He’s generating whiffs on five percent fewer fastballs, and though the sample sizes we’re dealing with are small and the season has only just begun, the concerns are legitimate.

At this point, he can’t blame his 5.12 ERA on a high batting average on balls in play or a low strand rate, or even an inflated home run rate—his FIP and xFIP are 5.69 and 5.65. He needs to find that extra oomph on his two major pitches this year or ditch his sinker altogether for the stronger four-seamer.


Baltimore Orioles (8-7 with 15 percent playoff odds)


Buck Showalter on Jake Arrieta: “He’s not a young pitcher anymore, all right? It’s time to win those type of games…and he will."

Through 15 games last season, the Orioles were 6-9 and three-and-a-half games out behind the Yankees, foreshadowing what was to come for the rest of the season only in part, as they ended up 28 out and had a .426 winning percentage. This year, the Orioles have better playoff odds than eight teams, including the big spender-Marlins, who currently occupy the cellar of the NL East. Not bad for a team that recently clocked in at the bottom of the FanGraphs organizational rankings.

What’s sparked the Orioles' furious (remember the context, folks) start? Matt Wieters has made good on the predictions of a sure-fire breakout, Nolan Reimold has torn the cover off the ball, and Adam Jones is mashing. Three Baltimore starters look like legimiate major leaguers, a far cry from last year’s abominable starting rotation. There is reason to hope—or at least, to watch—in Baltimore for the first time in forever.

Surprise performance: Wei-Yin Chen, whose velocity isn’t back but whose results exist nonetheless
89.8 mph fastball; 3.33 strikeout-to-walk ratio; 8.18 strikeouts per nine; -1.7-slider pitcher value
In his top-50 free agents this offseason, Keith Law wrote about Chen previously “sitting low 90s and touching 95 in past years.” His concern was that Chen was “more 88-92 early in 2011, and his slider didn’t have his usual bite.”

Chen progressed in his Japanese baseball career from a power strikeout guy to a control-finesse figure and has adopted that style in the U.S. His control is very good in early showings—see his 3.33 K:BB ratio—and all this despite a previously seen velocity dip and biteless slider. The trends from last year sticking around may cause concern, but the early showings—which fit a sustainable luck profile—have Chen at a 3.27 ERA and a 3.40 FIP. Not bad.


Toronto Blue Jays (8-6 with 30 percent playoff odds)


Joe Maddon on Brandon Morrow: “He wasn’t on top of his game like he can be, there’s no question. We’ve seen him at his best and, of course, that wasn’t his best tonight.”
The Blue Jays are overflowing with talent up and down their roster, from young stud Brett Lawrie to MVP candidate and home run champion Jose Bautista and everywhere in between. Offense was expected to carry Toronto and it has thus far: it rates as the eighth-best in baseball while the pitching staff is the worst.

Pitching will be the concern for the remainder of the season, with the offensive firepower only bringing them part of the way toward a playoff berth. Despite extremely friendly balls-in-play luck for the threesome of Ricky Romero, Kyle Drabek and Henderson Alvarez (.235, .239, and .197 BABIPs, respectively), they’ve mustered only 0.3 wins above replacement.

Morrow hasn’t been himself: He’s striking out no one and letting plenty of balls out of the park, and also hasn’t suffered from bad luck. On the contrary, his BABIP is .158. There are some major concerns in Toronto’s pitching staff, as no one has an FIP under 4.34, no one has an xFIP under 3.92, and the fifth starter spot has been split by Drew Hutchison (8.57 FIP) and Joel Carreno (8.28 FIP) thus far. A top-two finish in the East will likely be impossible without a huge step forward for the Jays' hurlers.

Surprise performance: Morrow, who isn’t striking out anyone and is giving up homers to everyone
4.05 strikeouts per nine, .158 BABIP, 7.00 FIP, 20.7 HR/FB ratio, -0.3 WAR
Uh...what’s happened here? Morrow’s previous strikeouts-per-nine have been 10.95 and 10.19 in 2010 and 2011, respectively. This year, his 4.05 mark doesn’t even best his career walk rate of 4.47 per nine innings. Morrow’s velocity is down across the board, yet surprisingly, he’s giving up fewer line drives by a huge percentage (16 percent fewer liners than last year) and far more ground balls.

People simply aren’t swinging outside the zone in 2012 (10 percent lower O-Swing rate) and when they do, they’re making about 10 percent more contact. Morrow’s always been enigmatic, but this is another level. I’m not buying at this point, as he could well be injured.


New York Yankees (9-6 with 73 percent playoff odds)


Joe Girardi: “I’m just listening to the air conditioner. I find it very peaceful.”

Despite starting-rotation woes, the Yankees are sitting peacefully atop the AL East standings, where they can reasonably expect to stay this year with their juggernaut offense and excellent bullpen. Despite slow starts from Phil Hughes, Hiroki Kuroda and CC Sabathia, there is little panic in Yankeeville, where the league’s best bullpen has led them to a one-game lead in the division.

A top-three offense hasn’t hurt; Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira and more have set stunning paces thus far, and even Eduardo Nunez and Raul Ibanez have found their niches as part-time contributors (with the key word being contributors).

About that staff, though: Like the Jays, the Yankees have reason to panic with their current one through five starters. Unlike the Jays, the Yankees have depth at Triple-A with Manny Banuelos and Delin Betances, and Andy Pettitte is waiting in the wings. If a healthy (a big if) Pineda can take over for a struggling Hughes (5.95 FIP and 4.71 xFIP at the replacement level), and Pettitte can replace Freddy Garcia (4.78 FIP and 4.13 xFIP at 0.1 WAR), the Yankees can run away with the division.

Surprise performance: Eduardo Nunez, who is actually above the replacement level
Positive 1 UZR, .455 batting average, 7.7 percent walk rate, 3.8 percent strikeout rate
Early in the season, I was upset when Brett Gardner was riding the pine in favor of Nunez, who had managed to be nearly a win below replacement in just 142 games previous to this year. Much of it had to do with complete ineptitude on defense, which was a far cry from Gardner’s excellence. Why would Gardner—who is as speedy and nearly as offensively adept as Nunez against lefties—yield any playing time?

Nunez has stepped us his game, though, and I’ll give credit where it’s due. His fielding metrics spell good things, and his plate discipline has helped the Yankees out immensely in his 26 plate appearances. He’s gotten on base 12 times and has stolen three bases, and though luck is the biggest friend in Nunez’s improvements, he’s made a legitimate case for some playing time with legitimate major league defense. Kudos.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2012-04-23T09:05:15+00:00 NL Waiver Wire: Week 2 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-212/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-212/#When:09:22:15 Brian Bogusevic | Astros | OF | 1 percent Yahoo ownership | 0 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .184/.311/.316
Oliver ROS: .249/.327/.376


What am I doing recommending a 28-year old Houston Astro who is off to a startlingly slow start? I am of the firm belief that he will get playing time because of his excellent defensive returns and the lack of depth in Houston, and Bogusevic put up fair counting stat numbers last year: he hit 13 homers in 600 pro-rated at-bats, and stole 13 bases as well.

He's a career .280 minor league hitter but bested that number in his major league cup of tea, which consisted of nearly 200 appearances, and doesn't have the kind of strikeout numbers that deflate a batting average too much. All adds up to a worthy outfielder in an injury-filled player pool—a rarity. Oliver has him pinned for nine more homers and 13 more steals - I'd take the under on both, but I'd pick him up regardless.

Recommendation: Worthy of an add in most NL-only leagues.

A.J. Burnett | Pirates | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 1 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: N/A
Oliver ROS: 5.04 ERA/1.48 WHIP/7.1 K/9

Don't always listen to the projections system. I wrote about A.J.'s fantasy prospects in Pittsburgh before his eye injury, and my prediction still stands: He still possesses the talent to succeed, and a slew of factors could change his fortune. His Yankees days were mired with bad luck, and all it takes is a shifting in the universe (or, perhaps, a friendlier home park) to bring the ugly counting stats down. We all know the strikeouts will be there. Whether he's available on your wire in a question of the league you play in, but perhaps NL-only owners in an ESPN format can snag Burnett before his triumphant return.

Recommendation: Worthy of an add in all NL-only leagues.

Tyler Skaggs | D-backs | SP | 1 percent Yahoo ownership | 0 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: N/A
Oliver ROS: 4.95 ERA/1.39 WHIP/7.2 K/9

Skaggs, one of the best players to be named later ever (already), has unimpressive major league equivalencies (he'll be hanging out at the replacement level for the next handful of years, according to Oliver) and is in a three-man line with Wade Miley and Trevor Bauer for the D-backs' "next-in-line" spot. Why am I recommending him? While Miley seems like the logical fill-in to Josh Collmenter if (when) necessary, he has little talent to speak of: a 3.69 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in his minor league career and a 7.0 K/9 rate that isn't exactly matched with pinpoint control. His small sample size major league strikeout to walk ratio is 1.23, which just won't cut it for long.

Though Skaggs might rightfully be owned in most NL-only redraft leagues, he should be owned in all for the legitimate hypothetical in which Miley and Collmenter continue to blow up and Bauer continues to struggle with his walks. Skaggs' strikeout to walk ratio last year in Double-A? A whopping 4.87. This year, in his two starts back at Double-A: 7.50, including 12.27 K/9. He's talented enough to rise to the opportunity.

Recommendation: Worthy of an add in deeper NL-only leagues.

Juan Francisco | Braves | 3B | 1 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.2 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .292/.320/.667
Oliver ROS: .275/.312/.476

There's a chance Francisco is available in weekly transaction single formats after his weak start and the return of Chipper Jones, but a strong week has reminded the fantasy world that Francisco is brimming with potential and is simply an injury away from all the playing time he can handle. The projection systems have always loved Francisco's potential, regularly projecting 20+ homers and an above-average hitting prowess despite regular strikeouts: Oliver projected 18 homers, 65 runs batted in, and a .275 average in about 400 at-bats this year.

Chipper Jones, of course, mans the hot corner and will continue to do so as long as he's healthy and happy, but this is his farewell campaign and he's injury prone. Neither the Braves, nor the artist formerly known as Larry Wayne, want to risk the future Hall-of-Famer a career-ending, debilitating injury by riding him every day at a trying position.

Enter Francisco several days a week. He has nearly 40 Triple-A home runs to his name in just 173 games, a testament to his enormous raw power. No one will ever mistake him for a master of plate discipline, but he can avoid hanging out on the lower spectrum of batting averages because of his excellent line-drive rates. This is partly a speculative add—and perhaps one that's already been made—but Francisco will get his playing time spelling Jones or filling in for him. And when he plays, he hits.

Recommendation: Worthy of an add in all NL-only leagues.

Speculative saves of the week
Steve Cishek| Marlins | RP | 5 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.1 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 0.00 ERA/0.50 WHIP/7.4 K/9
Oliver ROS: 4.00 ERA/1.33 WHIP/7.2 K/9

Cishek, the fireballing side-hurler who saved three games last year in three tries when Leo Nunez (er, Juan Oviedo) was out, is a longshot for saves. I concede that. Heath Bell got a (silly) three-year deal worth nearly $10 million annually, so his leash is as strong as ever. The reason I speculate on Cishek, besides my belief that he may provide good ratio stats regardless (another disagreement with Oliver, I see), is because there's a legitimate shot, in my mind, that Heath Bell is hiding something from the world: namely, an injury.

Perhaps this is too much speculation and perhaps this is too little investigation, but I saw in 2011 a tumbling strikeout rate supported by the same exact pitch types and usage rates as the years prior, and this year, I see a velocity stumble. In 2011, there was no bad luck to be spoken of; in 2012, the control has gone. Perhaps the Marlins find themselves competitive but Bell stumbling, and they decide to cut their losses, admit that the contract was a huge, new-ballpark-opening-and-desperate-to-pack-the-place kind of mistake, and turn to what seems like an obvious choice for such a role, Steve Cishek. Worth a gamble, isn't it? Ozzie shakes things up.

Recommendation: Worthy of an add in leagues with innings caps or holds, or all deeper NL-only formats.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2012-04-20T09:22:15+00:00 NL Waiver Wire: Week 1 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-1/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/nl-waiver-wire-week-1/#When:07:28:15 David Wright's nagging hand injury or Michael Morse's uncooperative lat; Lance Berkman's torn calf or Drew Storen's fragmented elbow (and my fragmented dreams)—the story lines and roster shakeups are hard to keep track of. So what are we waiting for? Let's see what awaits on the Waiver Wire.

J.D. Martinez | Astros | OF | 37 percent Yahoo ownership | 31 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .364/.391/.682
Oliver ROS: .289/.342/.462

Hyped as the Astros' savior—if you wan't to call it that—by yours truly, Martinez has delivered in his first small-sample taste of April baseball. He impressed last year on both sides of the ball and is viewed as one of the few valuable pieces of the lowly 'Stros roster, so Martinez should get as much burn as he can provide.

Martinez brings to the table batting average and power, supported by impressive minor league numbers and all. He's a line-drive hitter whose small sample size mark of 27.6 percent would've rivaled and bested, should he have qualified, the likes of Joey Votto (27.5 percent), Michael Bourn (26.6 percent), Michael Young (26.2 percent), Placido Polanco (25.7 percent), and Andre Ethier (25.3 percent). The simple physics of baseball tell you that if you hit the ball hard on a line, it'll give the fielder less time to position himself under the ball for an our. Simple, huh? Suffice it to say that his line-drive tendencies are for real, and could have him challenging for a .290+ batting average despite his high strikeout ways.

Minute Maid Park ain't so bad for home-run hitters, too. It rated as the seventh best hitter's park for home runs last year, clocking in behind only the launching pads in Arlington, Cincinnati, New York, Colorado, Toronto, and South Side Chicago. Martinez, as such, should sneak a few line drives over the tall-wall in left field at Minute Maid.

Recommendation: Run, don't walk, to pick up Martinez in all leagues (especially if you own Michael Morse).

Allen Craig | Cardinals | OF/2B | 25 percent Yahoo ownership | 13 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: No stats accrued
Oliver ROS: .281/.334/.464

The multi-eligible, ultra-talented Craig was a bit late to the party last May at 26 years old, but carried with him into his breakout month a history of mashing at Triple-A (a .320/.379/.545 triple-slash). He bookmarked a long DL stint with a pre-All Star average of .336 and a post-All Star average of .290, and added 11 long balls in a mere 200 at-bats. So why isn't this guy owned?

He's a massive, massive injury question mark. Craig characteristically missed time last season with a knee injury, and opened the 2012 year on the disabled list with another knee injury—the norm for the guy who has played in no more than 129 games in any single season, minors or majors. And the Cardinals outfield is awfully crowded with Jon Jay, Matt Holliday, and Carlos Beltran.

Beltran, however, is susceptible to injury, as is shortstop Rafael Furcal. Even though Craig's defensive returns at second base were ugly (to say the least: he would've cost the Cardinals 26+ runs over 150 games at second base last year), Tyler Greene would be forced to slide over to shortstop in the case of a Furcal injury, leaving Craig as the (most) logical replacement.

Regardless, Craig should spell Greene and whoever the most tired outfielder is at least a few times a week in order to get his potent bat in the lineup. He can certainly help in the batting average department and may provide good power returns, should he ever see the field.

Recommendation: Craig should be owned in all NL only formats and closely monitored or acquired as a bench player in mixed leagues.

Lance Lynn | Cardinals | SP | 31 percent Yahoo ownership | 8 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 1.35 ERA, 0.45 WHIP, 10.80 K/9
Oliver ROS: 4.46 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.9 K/9

So Oliver and I disagree on Lance Lynn, Chris Carpenter's rotation fill-in for an indefinite amount of time. This despite Lynn's 10.38 K/9 last season in 34+ innings of mostly bullpen duty and his squeaky clean 2.70 xFIP, and this also despite his extensive Triple-A seasoning and pedigree (rated the number six prospect in the Cardinals' system by Baseball America this very season).

I say trust me on this one. Lynn, in his debut outing, threw five different pitches effectively through six and two-thirds innings (I'm counting his two-seamer and change-up, the former of which he barely threw in his 2012 debut and the latter of which he barely threw last year but was valued as above-average according to FanGraphs).

Per BrooksBaseball.net, he generated six whiffs at his four-seamer in his debut outing this year (April 8 against Milwaukee's potent offense) and four more on his curveball. He hit 95 miles per hour on his four-seamer and threw five change-ups, on average, about 10 miles per hour slower.

The repertoire is a recipe for success, and the home park and injury-laden rotation should only be aids in getting Lynn 25+ starts. I like him as a toned-down version of Brandon Beachy last year—under the radar 'til the last minute, slow to draw people in but surprising in his immediate success.

Recommendation: Worth an add in all NL-only leagues and deeper mixed league squads—particularly those who roster Chris Carpenter.

Casey McGehee | Pirates | 3B | 4 percent Yahoo ownership | 2 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .417/.417/.750
Oliver ROS: .260/.312/.398

Early returns on Pedro Alvarez versus lefties: ugly. His OBP is .291, his strikeout rate is an alarming 42 percent, and he's hit a mere three home runs in 152 at-bats. Lest you forget, that's his game. So we know Casey McGehee, he of a lifetime .260/.322/.422 triple-slash against southpaws—merely respectable—, will vulture those at-bats.

The good news for McGehee watchers, owners, and fans is that Alvarez has shown almost equal ineptitude against righties, putting together a passable but ugly .723 OPS and a 31 percent strikeout rate. Early, and I mean very early, readings from the 2012 Alvarez Job Pressure Barometer tell me that he's pressing because the pressure's on, and his 1-for-9 showing with four strikeouts in three games isn't winning him any more playing time.

McGehee was barely above the replacement level last year, but is a league-average hitter and at incredibly weak position, and can be an able fill-in for David Wright in his absence. In his heyday, which was 2010, McGehee did stuff: stuff being, of course, 23 home runs, 104 runs batted in, and a .285 average. The out-of-nowhere breakout start of 2009 followed up his half-season cameo with an even better showing. It looked like a classic case of a prospect that crawled through the cracks.

Say it ain't so, Pedro. McGehee got 600 plate appearances for the Brewers in 2011, but did nothing with them offensively: he was 32 points below league average with the bat, putting together a .223/.280/.346 triple-slash that you would think belongs to a Paul Janish. Bad luck, however, was the main culprit, and McGehee has a change of scenery, (by all accounts weak, yet) healthy competition for a job, and a clear-cut path to a split-time at-bats...at worst. You, too, could do worse finding a replacement third baseman.

Recommendation: Worth an add in most NL-only leagues.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2012-04-13T07:28:15+00:00 How’s this for transparency? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/hows-this-for-transparency/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/hows-this-for-transparency/#When:08:59:15
I’ll show you where I put my money where my mouth is—Cory Luebke I bought for $16 in one of my leagues, which could be downright silly—and where I sadly whiffed—my apologies, Brett Lawrie; I tried. Plus, you can track me passively throughout the season. I’ll throw in an update come October.

BLOG WARS (15 team mixed league)
Characteristics:
-Snake draft
-Weekly league
-Two catcher
-ESPN.com


















































































































Pick Player
2 Albert Pujols, LAA 1B  
29 Cliff Lee, Phi SP  
32 Hunter Pence, Phi OF  
59 Yovani Gallardo, Mil SP  
62 Madison Bumgarner, SF SP  
89 B.J. Upton*, TB OF  
92 Dee Gordon, LAD SS  
119 Jason Kipnis, Cle 2B  
122 Cameron Maybin, SD OF  
149 Adam Lind, Tor 1B  
152 Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 3B  
179 Jeff Francoeur, KC OF  
182 Sean Marshall, Cin RP  
209 Daniel Murphy, NYM 2B  
212 Chris Sale, CWS RP  
239 Frank Francisco, NYM RP  
242 Denard Span, Min OF  
269 Scott Baker*, Min SP  
272 Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Bos C  
299 Erik Bedard, Pit SP  
302 Josh Reddick, Oak OF  
329 Luke Hochevar, KC SP  
332 Ryan Hanigan, Cin C  
359 Lance Lynn, StL RP  
362 Juan Francisco, Atl 3B  
389 Casey McGehee, Pit 3B  
392 Drew Smyly, Det SP  


Quick Notes:

-Yes, this was my first 15-team league.
-Yes, I was surprised how many players I liked and was happy to have (see my last five or six picks) ended up on my roster.
-Yes, I did get locked out of the draft room shortly before my second overall pick.
-Yes, I would've taken Matt Kemp over Albert Pujols.
-Yes, I'm quite worried about my batting average.


Hardball Times (12 team mixed league)
Characteristics:
-Hardball Times folk only
-Auction draft
-Innings cap of 1500
-One catcher
-Yahoo!


















































































































Player Cost
Carlos Gonzalez(Col - OF) $44
Cliff Lee(Phi - SP) $36
Cory Luebke(SD - SP,RP) $13
Jemile Weeks(Oak - 2B) $8
Michael Cuddyer(Col - 1B,2B,OF) $14
Josh Hamilton(Tex - OF) $23
John Mayberry(Phi - 1B,OF) $4
Alejandro De Aza(CWS - OF) $2
Chris Sale(CWS - RP) $5
Brennan Boesch(Det - OF) $7
Erik Bedard(Pit - SP) $3
Yoenis Cespedes(Oak - OF) $7
Delmon Young(Det - OF) $3
C.J. Wilson(LAA - SP) $10
Jimmy Rollins(Phi - SS) $10
Bryan LaHair(ChC - OF) $2
Corey Hart(Mil - OF) $10
Jim Johnson(Bal - RP) $3
Mike Moustakas(KC - 3B) $7
Jordan Zimmermann(Was - SP) $9
Carlos Beltran(StL - OF) $8
Kelly Johnson(Tor - 2B) $5
Edwin Encarnacion(Tor - 1B,3B) $5
Rafael Betancourt(Col - RP) $5
Daniel Hudson(Ari - SP) $9
Ramon Hernandez(Col - C) $1
Sergio Santos(Tor - RP) $7


Quick Notes:

-Yes, I finally balked and drafted Josh Hamilton. Had to own some stock.
-Yes, I have the most balance on any of my teams right here
-Yes, in hindsight, I believe Alejando de Aza for $2 might be the steal of the draft.
-Yes, I feasted on cheap, second-tier starting pitching late. Loved every minute of it.

Hero sandwich (14 team mixed league)
Characteristics:
-Auction draft
-Innings cap of 1425
-Two catcher
-Yahoo!


















































































































Player Cost
Clayton Kershaw(LAD - SP) $40
Dee Gordon(LAD - SS) $21
Carlos Gonzalez(Col - OF) $40
Ian Kinsler(Tex - 2B) $32
Mike Minor(Atl - SP) $4
Dan Haren(LAA - SP) $23
Jason Heyward(Atl - OF) $17
Wilson Ramos(Was - C) $5
John Mayberry(Phi - 1B,OF) $5
Adam Jones(Bal - OF) $14
Brennan Boesch(Det - OF) $6
Brett Myers(Hou - SP) $5
Javy Guerra(LAD - RP) $6
Salvador Perez(KC - C) $3
Cory Luebke(SD - SP,RP) $8
Mat Gamel(Mil - CI) $1
Mark Reynolds(Bal - 1B,3B) $6
Lucas Duda(NYM - 1B,OF) $3
Scott Baker(Min - SP) $6
Angel Pagan(SF - OF) $1
Bryce Harper(Was - OF) $4
Marco Scutaro(Col - SS) $1
Clay Buchholz(Bos - SP) $3
Gavin Floyd(CWS - SP) $3
Zack Cozart(Cin - SS) $1
Henderson Alvarez(Tor - SP) $1
Trevor Bauer(Ari - SP) $1


Quick Notes:

-Yes, the money I spent on Jason Heyward could've been better spent elsewhere. Sigh.
-Yes, my closers both have the potential to suck.
-Yes, I likely overspent on both of Magic's new toys, Dee Gordon and Clayton Kershaw.
-Yes, I made up for that by getting Adam Jones and Cory Luebke for what I see as cheap.
-Yes, I think I have a fighting chance.

Hardball Times vs. FanGraphs (12 team mixed league)
Characteristics:
-Hardball Times fights FanGraphs
-Auction draft
-Innings cap of 1500
-Two catchers
-Yahoo!






















































































































Player Cost
Clayton Kershaw(LAD - P) $29
Jacoby Ellsbury(Bos - OF) $35
Dexter Fowler(Col - OF) $6
Freddie Freeman(Atl - 1B) $8
Pablo Sandoval(SF - 1B,3B) $23
Hunter Pence(Phi - OF) $21
Jordan Zimmermann(Was - P) $12
Paul Goldschmidt(Ari - 1B) $7
Jhonny Peralta(Det - SS) $3
C.J. Wilson(LAA - P) $17
Chris Young(Ari - OF) $9
Neil Walker(Pit - 2B) $5
Brandon Beachy(Atl - P) $9
Alejandro De Aza(CWS - OF) $4
Adam Jones(Bal - OF) $20
Mark Reynolds(Bal - 1B,3B) $4
Joel Hanrahan(Pit - P) $7
Jason Kipnis(Cle - 2B) $7
Brandon League(Sea - P) $5
Frank Francisco(NYM - P) $3
Delmon Young(Det - OF) $4
Johan Santana(NYM - P) $4
Edwin Encarnacion(Tor - 1B,3B) $3
Jarrod Saltalamacchia(Bos - C) $1
Carlos Ruiz(Phi - C) $2
Alex Rios(CWS - OF) $5
Tim Hudson(Atl - P) $2
Justin Masterson(Cle - P) $1


Quick Notes:

-Yes, Justin Masterson did strike out 10 batters yesterday.
-Yes, I did trade Mark Reynolds and C.J. Wilson for Brandon McCarthy and Jered Weaver.
-Yes, I may well regret that when Wilson wins the Cy Young award, but I had offense to spare.
-Yes, I love being able to pounce when no one else has money left and bargain shop for whomever I choose.

TRIPLE CROWN AL (12 team AL-only)
Characteristics:
-Blog or site affiliated writers
-Auction draft
-No innings cap
-Two catchers
-CBS run


































































































Player Cost
Olivo, Miguel C SEA 7
Cervelli, Francisco C NYY  1
Konerko, Paul 1B CHW 22
Kipnis, Jason 2B CLE 22
Young, Michael 3B TEX 26
Ramirez, Alexei SS CHW 20
Donald, Jason 2B CLE 1
Trumbo, Mark 1B LAA  7
Jones, Adam CF BAL 25
Trout, Mike CF LAA 8
De Aza, Alejandro CF CHW 17
Chavez, Endy RF BAL 1
Wells, Casper RF SEA 1
Fukudome, Kosuke RF CHW 1
Hernandez, Felix SP SEA  28
Moore, Matt RP TB  20
Haren, Dan SP LAA  27
Johnson, Jim RP BAL  10
Harrison, Matt SP TEX  7
Bard, Daniel RP BOS  5
Turner, Jacob SP DET 1
Chen, Wei-Yin SP BAL  2
Soria, Joakim RP KC  1


Quick Notes:

-Yes, I had no clue what I was doing.
-Yes, I do realize now that my team is littered with minor leaguers.
-Yes, I overspent on pitching. Considerably.
-Yes, I recognize the potential for this team to finish in last place.
-Yes, Alejandro de Aza is one of the cornerstones of my team. Troubling.

AARP (10 team NL only)
Characteristics:
-The original league
-Auction draft – keeper league
-No innings cap
-Two catchers
-AllStarStats run
-Reigning champ
















































































































































































































































Player TM Pos Sal Con
David Ross ATL C 1 C
Chris Snyder HOU C 4 C
Michael Morse WAS 1B 5 A
Dan Uggla ATL 2B 32 C
Starlin Castro CHC SS 5 A
Martin Prado ATL 3B 17 C
Lucas Duda NYM 1B/3B 5 B
Dee Gordon LA 2B/SS 5 B
Brian Bogusevic HOU OF 4 C
Matt Kemp LA OF 38 B
John Mayberry PHI OF 5 B
Carlos Gonzalez COL OF 44 C
Angel Pagan SF OF 3 A
Juan Francisco ATL UTIL 5 C
Steve Cishek FLA RP 5 C
Sean Marshall CIN RP 12 C
Santiago Casilla SF RP 5 C
Daniel Hudson ARZ SP 10 B
Lance Lynn STL SP 3 C
Cory Luebke SD SP 1 B
Yovani Gallardo MLW SP 24 C
Francisco Rodriguez MLW RP 5 C
Rafael Betancourt COL RP 2 B
Brett Wallace HOU RESER (1B) 5 C
Taylor Green MLW RESER (2B) 5 C
Jedd Gyorko SD RESER (3B) 5 C
Starling Marte PIT RESER (OF) 5 C
Dave Sappelt CHC RESER (OF) 5 C
Trevor Bauer ARZ RESER (SP) 5 C
Tyler Skaggs ARZ RESER (SP) 1 C
Randy Wells CHC RESER (SP) 5 C
Josh Johnson FLA RESER (SP) 24 C
Tim Hudson ATL RESER (SP) 10 C


Quick Notes:

-Yes, I did keep the core of Starlin Castro, Michael Morse, Dee Gordon, Cory Luebke, and Lucas Duda for under $20.
-Yes, I did spend $24 on Josh Johnson, but only because top-flight pitching was kept for extremely cheap (Madison Bumgarner at $5, for example).
-Yes, I believe in Yovani Gallardo, and yes, that was only a late-prep discovery.
-Yes, my offense is susceptible to injury, to say the least.
-Yes, Taylor Green will steal 200+ at-bats when Rickie Weeks' annual injury strikes. I hope

Hometown (9 team mixed)
Characteristics:
-Auction draft
-1700 innings cap
-Two catchers
-ESPN run


















































































































Player Cost
Ryan Braun, Mil OF   $39
Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos OF   $34
Carlos Gonzalez, Col OF   $33
Ian Kinsler, Tex 2B   $27
Cliff Lee, Phi SP   $30
Cory Luebke, SD SP   $16
Aramis Ramirez, Mil 3B   $12
Michael Morse*, Wsh 1B   $11
Ian Kennedy, Ari SP   $15
Brandon Beachy, Atl SP   $6
Billy Butler, KC DH   $7
Brett Gardner, NYY OF   $9
Dee Gordon, LAD SS   $7
Mat Gamel, Mil 3B   $1
Paul Goldschmidt, Ari 1B   $1
Frank Francisco, NYM RP   $1
Mike Minor, Atl SP   $1
Sean Marshall, Cin RP   $1
Delmon Young, Det OF   $1
Aaron Hill, Ari 2B   $1
Ike Davis, NYM 1B   $1
Daniel Bard, Bos RP   $1
Henderson Alvarez, Tor SP   $1
Grant Balfour, Oak RP   $1
Carlos Marmol, ChC RP   $1
Derek Holland, Tex SP   $1
Wilson Ramos, Wsh C   $1


Quick Notes:

-Yes, this does embody everything that is wrong with mixed leagues.
-Yes, Joe Nathan is on the waiver wire.
-Yes, I could've done so much better with my stars and scrubs.
-Yes, Cory Luebke was partly to blame for that.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2012-04-06T08:59:15+00:00 To diversify my portfolio, or not? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/to-diversify-my-portfolio-or-not/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/to-diversify-my-portfolio-or-not/#When:09:03:15
Pictured below are some pretty pie graphs of my draft breakdown thus far in 2012. I’ve drafted in five out of the seven leagues I’m participating in this year, and found myself building a core, generally, around a whole slew of different guys each time.

Is that a keen strategy—using my end game, and even centerpiece picks, on a variety of guys, assuring—in theory—the chances for success? Or, like in Vegas when you’re feeling good about a certain game or a certain line, should I have “whacked” a certain player, gone all-in, and drafted him in every single league (say, an Alejandro de Aza, Cory Luebke, or Carlos Gonzalez, all of whom I own in three out of five leagues so far)?

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I own 16 percent of my hitters in more than one league, and 23 percent of my pitchers twice or more, for reference. But it all comes down to personal preference. Feeling a big year coming from Carlos Gonzalez like I do? Not so risk-averse? Bid him up in every league and put all your money where your mouth is.

My personal bend is to diversify my assets and simply look for the best deals where available. This draft season, I’ve found my strategy pretty straightforward and repetitive: draft a couple of studs, spend a good deal on pitching, but generally hold my money until the mid-range players come around and buy whomever I choose. Jordan Zimmermann and Cory Luebke, to a certain extent, fit that mold; I’m not targeting them, but they’re falling to me. I’m paying less for their value than what I should, and that, in it’s simplest form, is how to win any given league.

A couple of reminders when chasing a player you love:

What’s the difference?

I’ve seen, by nature of participating in a good number of drafts over the past few weeks, a bunch of guys bid past the projected value of a player on a site like Yahoo, only to be pushed one number further and drop out. Sometimes—and this is what doesn’t work for me—the chat box will read, from the recently outbid, “I was willing to go (insert arbitrary number here) but wasn’t willing to go (insert arbitrary number plus another bid, usually $2) on him.” Err… If you’re willing to spend $27 on Clayton Kershaw, for example, but aren’t willing to spend $29 on him, you’re letting self-doubt rule the day. I’d put the likelihood that Kershaw’s actual value lies in the $27-$29 range at “very low.” What one is really thinking when they self-confirm their dropping out of the bidding is, I’d think, “Crap, maybe I oughtta spend my money elsewhere! Or let this guy or gal with a fat stack left burn some of their cash so I can have the most money left!” Don’t self-doubt, and don’t back down at such levels. Target your guys and go get ‘em.

Don’t price enforce

By all means, if you’ve pinpointed a couple of guys that you feel you absolutely need to build around, don’t play the role of the price enforcer. By pushing the price up on guys you have no intention of buying, you’re playing into a risky strategy that may not pan out (i.e. when you get stuck with Chris Carpenter for three bucks trying to push his price up to pre-draft value of, say, seven dollars).

That said, deplete the market and pounce

Especially if you play in a keeper league, it would certainly be a deft move to take into account position scarcity and current rosters and, depending on the situation, try to fill others’ gaps. Say, for instance, I play in a 10 team NL-only league, and there are seven or so catchers kept. I figure I need Brian McCann or things might get ugly, but there are, plausibly, the two other teams without a catcher competing for McCann’s services to fill their void. I spot Buster Posey, who I’m low on this year, still hanging on my draft board, and throw him out there very well knowing I’ll eliminate one of my competitors for McCann: I sit back, relax, and enjoy the show. Now, of course, such a situation is unlikely (catcher is pretty weak this year, let me tell you), but the idea rings true at any point in the draft and in many analogous situation. Take money out of the total pot without price enforcing.


So, you feeling lucky on Carlos Gonzalez this year? Play your cards right, put a chip in each of the pots, and hold your breath.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Nick Fleder 2012-03-29T09:03:15+00:00