The Hardball Times -- Paul Singman

AL Waiver Wire: report card

Paul Singman — 2012-07-06T06:06:15+00:00

Halfway through the season and we have 11 weeks worth of AL Waiver Wires published on the site. The first eight were by Josh Shepardson, now of Baseball Prospectus, and the last three weeks I've stepped in and tried to keep up the great work done by him.

Sometimes there's been good advice; other times our picks have fallen flat. Let's look at the best and worst picks by each of us.

Pitching gems

Felipe Paulino (recommended Week 5, when his ownership was 3 percent Yahoo, 0.3 percent ESPN)

Unfortunately, Paulino has been on the DL the past month with a groin strain that's caused his fantasy owners to miss a month's worth of quality pitching. While he was injured it was discovered he also needed Tommy John surgery, so Paulino's season is done. Before the injury, though, the hard-throwing righty had a 1.67 ERA through seven starts and looked poised to be a valuable asset the rest of the season. I give Josh credit for making this rec after just Paulino's first start even though it won't play out.

A.J. Griffin (recommended Week 10, when it was practically impossible to add him)

Griffin is no top prospect, so he's not someone you'll hear much about in prospect reports that typically just cover the top guys, whether it's good news or bad. Therefore Griffin was surely underwritten about given his impressive minor league stats (and curveball) and proximity to the majors when I shared my thoughts on him.

About a week later he received the call and now, three starts later, he's yet to give up more than two runs in any of them. Unfortunately he's also yet to factor into a decision, but he's certainly been worth the add to anyone who was brave enough to start him against the Rangers and Red Sox (probably no one). At least his next start is against hapless Seattle.

Pitching duds

Luke Hochevar (recommended Weeks 1 and 3, when his ownership was 9 percent Yahoo, 1.9 percent ESPN)

Josh pushed hard for people to add the former first overall pick, highlighting him in the offseason and two of the first three Waiver Wires. While Hochevar has a couple of gems to his name this season, overall he's pitched poorly. After yesterday's injury-shortened start, his ERA sits at 5.14, his WHIP is 1.39, and his strikeout rate is an uninspiring 6.52 per nine. With numbers like those, very few people should have added him to their teams.

Justin Grimm (recommended Week 11, when his ownership was 0 percent Yahoo, 1.9 percent ESPN)

I embarrassingly gave a reserved vote of confidence in Grimm after his solid debut, only to see him last all of one inning in his next turn, against the Tigers. By the time three outs were recorded, nine batters reached base and six of them came around to score. Grimm was rightfully sent back to the minors after one more appearance, and I was left wondering why I didn't profile Franklin Morales that week instead. I hope you listened to my colleague Brad Johnson and avoided Grimm's start as he advised.

Hitting gems

Josh Reddick (recommended Week 2, when his ownership was 4 percent Yahoo, 2 percent ESPN)

More than just an All-Star snub this year, Reddick was also snubbed in most fantasy drafts and left in free agency to start the season. A few weeks in and Reddick's stats weren't too impressive, but Josh (Shepardson) saw a player playing every day, batting third, and with a decent skill-set worthy of an add. Those who listened have so far gotten a great return on their investment and Reddick shows little signs of slowing down in the second half.

Brandon Moss (recommended Week 9 when his ownership was 0 percent Yahoo and ESPN)

The swap at first base between Kila Ka'aihue and Moss was initially ignored by most people, until he went off and blasted five homers in four days. A few days before that homer binge—when Moss had all of one home run to his name—I did a write-up of him, noting Oliver saw potential in this post-hype sleeper's bat. Of course I didn't see 10 homers in 24 games, but I'll take some credit for being one of the first to write about him,

Hitting duds

Luke Scott (recommended Week 2, when his ownership was 14 percent Yahoo, 5 percent ESPN)

As of Josh's writing that Scott was a solid bet for the rest of the season, he was batting .333 with an OPS over 1,000. Since that peak, though, his average has been in a near-constant free fall down to its current .194 mark. In a feat of ineptitude and extreme bad luck, Scott has managed to go a Rays franchise record 39 at-bats without a single hit. He's known as a streaky hitter, but this is beyond anyone's normal ebb and flow of production. How he will perform the rest of the season is one giant mystery.

Michael Saunders (recommended Week 9, when his ownership was 17 percent Yahoo, 13.7 percent ESPN)

When I confidently proclaimed that Saunders should have universal ownership, he was in the middle of a tremendous hot streak. Over a stretch of 10 games, he had multi-hit performances in five of them. In nearly a month's worth of play since, he has just two. Saunders still possesses impressive tools, making him someone to always keep an eye on, but based on his play of late, he was a clear sell-high at the time.

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The impending arrival of Starling Marte

Paul Singman — 2012-07-03T07:51:15+00:00

Marte with a perfect-form bunt. (US Presswire)

Even though the Pirates are relevant as a team this year, for fantasy purposes their lineup is still mostly irrelevant. Outside of Andrew McCutchen and random fits of homers from Pedro Alvarez, the pickings are slim in Pittsburgh.

An easy target to blame for this is Jose Tabata, he of a .230 average and sub-.300 on base percentage. His bat seemingly oozing with fantasy potential after his rookie season in 2010—hitting .300 with five home runs and 19 steals in 100 games—Tabata has since oozed, for the most part, only outs from his bat.

On Monday, word came out that the Pirates are upset with Tabata's performance and effort level this year, and are increasingly likely to send him to the minors to get his act together. A major reason the Pirates are willing to send down their starting right fielder is the presence of a talented outfielder in Triple-A named Starling Marte.

At 23 years-old against Triple-A pitchers, Marte has batted .284 with eight homers and 16 steals, demonstrating his decent pop and plus speed. Over a full season, Oliver projects Marte is capable of a .280 average, 11 homers, and 24 stolen bases. Not huge numbers, but for a fourth outfielder in a 14-team leagues, he can suffice.

Scouting reports also indicate Marte is a plus defender, making the choice to promote him easier. I don't know who you're running out in your outfield at the moment, but consider bidding around $2 to make Marte one of your options. Considering the Pirates lineup is fluctuating a lot, factor in that he may find himself batting first or second fairly quickly if he produces out of the gate.

This is all assuming Marte does get the call in the near future, meaning Tabata doesn't miraculously turn his season around or Drew Sutton doesn't fill the role of the place-holder for too long. If I'm putting my money somewhere though, it's on Marte.

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A Team Singman Tout update

Paul Singman — 2012-06-25T05:19:15+00:00

It's been almost two months since I last gave you a Tout Wars update, so for those not following along at home, here's your chance to catch up. My team is a little different since last time, but one thing is the same, I'm still currently in first. For those wondering, it feels good.

Hitting

+-----+------------------+-------+
| POS | PLAYER           | PRICE |
+-----+------------------+-------+
| C   | J Saltalamacchia | $ 7   |
| C   | Martin Maldonado | $ 0   |
| 1B  | Lucas Duda       | $ 7   |
| 2B  | Jason Kipnis     | $ 7   |
| 3B  | Mike Moustakas   | $10   |
| SS  | Starlin Castro   | $25   |
| CI  | Brett Lawrie     | $28   |
| MI  | Mike Aviles      | $ 2   |
| OF  | Curtis Grandy    | $33   |
| OF  | Nick Swisher     | $11   |
| OF  | John Jay         | $ 0   |
| OF  | Josh Reddick     | $ 1   |
| OF  | Leonys Martin    | $ 2   |
| UT  | Carlos Quentin   | $ 1   |
+-----+------------------+-------+
| BN  | Jhonny Peralta   | $ 8   |
| BN  | Andrelton Simmons| $ 7   |
| BN  | Travis d'Arnaud  | $ 1   |
| BN  | Wil Myers        | $ 2   |
| DL  | Ryan Howard      | $ 7   |
| DL  | Andy Dirks       | $ 1   |
+-----+------------------+-------+

Taking a look at my hitting, it remains an unspectacular, yet solid bunch of guys leading me to earning at least 11 points in every hitting category. I've been lucky to avoid major injuries to my lineup, and as a result haven't had to change it much. Still, I make minor tweaks every week to make sure I have multiple options in case a player goes down. We'll take a look at those in a bit, first, I'll offer some thoughts on my players.

At catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia has been great, and I can only hope he keeps it up in the rest of the season. A little known fact is the third week of the season, back when Salty and Nick Hundley were my catchers, I actually tried to drop Salty by placing a $0 bid on Willin Rosario. It sounds ridiculous now, especially because Hundley was my other catcher, but at that point I wanted no part of Salty's .103/.161/.241 line. Luckily for me, it turned out Rotowire's Derek VanRiper bid $1 and he got Rosario, so nothing came of it.

Right now Martin Maldonado is doing well as my second catcher, though once Jonathan Lucroy returns I'll have to find someone else. I can only hope Travis d'Arnaud is in the majors by then, be it with the Blue Jays or somewhere else. I think he'd be an upgrade over J.P. Arencibia, but who knows what Alex Anthopoulos will do.

Lucas Duda has been a solid first baseman for me, and very luckily hasn't gotten injured since he's the only first base eligible player on my roster. I was actually not aware of this until I almost traded Duda along with J.J. Putz for Melky Cabrera, but had to cancel because then first base would be empty. That hopefully won't be the case in around a month if Ryan Howard ever comes off the DL. For now though, it's all Duda, baby.

Sometimes the universe works in strange ways, like when I somehow end up with a $7 Jason Kipnis in an auction when I had no intention of ever owning him. I was admittedly an Ackley-over-Kipnis guy in the preseason and am undeservedly reaping the benefits of owning him.

I'm not going to touch on all of my other players, but I'll mention it's nice to see Brett Lawrie pick it up in June after a boring start to the season. I need him to step up for guys like Mike Aviles and Josh Reddick, who probably won't have as productive second-halves as their first-halves were.

This week in FAABing I decided to bid $2 on Leonys Martin since the Rangers have no off day this week and face a streak of righties until Friday. Hopefully he gets a few starts and is productive, though I don't expect him to stay in my lineup every week right now. Later in the season if he carves on more of a role in the Rangers lineup, he could be a nice player to own as I mentioned in last week's Waiver Wire.

Pitching

+-----+------------------+-------+
| POS | PLAYER           | PRICE |
+-----+------------------+-------+
| P   | Cole Hamels      | $20   |
| P   | M Bumgarner      | $17   |
| P   | Chris Sale       | $ 7   |
| P   | Lance Lynn       | $ 1   |
| P   | Franklin Morales | $ 3   |
| P   | Chris Young      | $ 2   |
| P   | Justin Grimm     | $ 1   |
| P   | J.J. Putz        | $13   |
| P   | Brett Myers      | $ 5   |
+-----+------------------+-------+
| BN  | C Friedrich      | $ 2   |
| BN  | Greg Holland     | $ 2   |
| DL  | Frank Francisco  | $ 6   |
| DL  | Brandon Beachy   | $13   |
| DL  | Stephen Pryor    | $ 2   |
+-----+------------------+-------+

My pitching staff has a tremendous top three, but after that I've had to change a lot up. Regression-bound or not, losing Brandon Beachy was a tough loss. I'm lucky to get his $13 salary back for my FAAB budget at least.

Lance Lynn has been great, but I don't really trust him anymore after his sub-par last two starts. He draws the Pirates so I'm starting him this week, but one more ugly start and I'll almost be willing to cut ties.

I was fairly aggressive in bidding $3 for Franklin Morales this week, which is justified by his two starts this year: 11 innings, four runs, 17 strikeouts, and just one walk (and the fact that someone else bid $2). With a third start scheduled at Seattle this week, I suggest picking up Morales if he is available in your league. He could easily stick in the Boston rotation, even though he's technically just filling in for Josh Beckett.

Justin Grimm and Chris Young I view as less permanent options, but have relatively friendly match ups so I am starting them.

Lastly, if I lose a closer in Brett Myers due to a trade, hopefully I'll also gain one in Greg Holland for the same reason.

Final thoughts

Overall I think this team has the talent to remain in first and contend for a title. It will still take a lot of moves and additions throughout the season (and maybe a trade or two which I've yet to do) but at least I'm well positioned to do so with a fairly large FAAB budget remaining as well.

It should be a fun ride and you want to follow along it's easy to do so at the Tout Wars website. I'm also open to suggestions of course.

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AL Waiver Wire: Week 11

Paul Singman — 2012-06-22T09:17:15+00:00

Justin Grimm | Texas Rangers | SP | ESPN: 1.1 percent ownership, Yahoo: 1 percent ownership
YTD (AA): 1.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 7.83 K/9, 1.64 BB/9
Oliver ROS: 5.38 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 5.9 K/9

Grimm, whose name sounds more like a Tim Burton character than a baseball player, came up from Double-A and pitched six innings of shutout ball in his first major league start last week. In his dazzling debut he struck out seven and walked none. Impressive, right? What were you doing when you were 23 years old?

Sorry, this isn't about you. This is about Grimm, who impressed enough to earn a second start against the Tigers Monday, kicking Scott Feldman to the curb in the process. Alright, so Feldman has merely been moved to the bullpen, but he isn't too happy about it either way.

Sorry Scott Feldman, this isn't about you either. This is about Grimm, who may not get another start. If he does though, he's lined up for two relatively easy ones against the A's and Twins heading up to the All-Star break. Unfortunately there's a pretty good chance he just won't pitch that well and get sent down for more seasoning, but if you've recently lost Brandon Beachy or Brandon Morrow or any other Brandon to injury, consider replacing him with Grimm.
Recommendation: Can be added in 14+ mixed and deeper. In shallower leagues, it should only be if you're especially light on starting pitching.

Danny Hultzen | Seattle Mariners | SP | ESPN: 0.1 percent ownership, Yahoo: 3 percent ownership
YTD (AA): 1.19 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 9.44 K/9, 3.82 BB/9
Oliver ROS: 4.04 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.9 K/9

Hultzen is just a bird in the flock of incredibly talented pitchers from the 2011 draft class descending upon the majors as they ascend up the minors. Promoted yesterday after 75 dominant Double-A innings, Hultzen is the second of his kind to reach Triple-A (Trevor Bauer got there first).

Many believe Hultzen is on the fast track to the majors, though his call-up date is far from certain. His performance in Triple-A will have a large influence over that, and August is the earliest I think we could see him in the majors. So if you're jealous of all the people with Bauer on their roster, waiting for him to get called up, and want in the fun, here's your chance.

In general, I'd rather try my hand on a pitcher like Grimm with the present opportunity, but if you've got room to stash Hultzen, I won't stop you.
Recommendation: Probably should be stashed in most AL-only leagues, in mixed leagues, only if you've got the room. Depends on your team and league settings.

Garrett Richards | Los Angeles Angels | SP | ESPN: 14.8 percent ownership, Yahoo: 12 percent ownership
YTD: 0.86 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.29 K/9, 4.71 BB/9
Oliver ROS: 4.95 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.0 K/9

Richards has yet to give up more than one earned run in his three starts this year, which is a testament to the power of luck more than anything else. He's allowed just one home run despite a 43 percent flyball rate. His BABIP is .226. Even the people who argue against regression probably can't convince themselves that Richards is anywhere near this good.

What we see here is a mid-4.00s ERA pitcher who walks too many batters and luckily still has a rotation spot because Jerome Williams just went to the DL. Plain and simple, I'd stay away.
Recommendation: Doesn't need to be added.

Leonys Martin | Texas Rangers | OF | ESPN: 0 percent ownership, Yahoo: 1 percent ownership
YTD (AAA): .344/.414/.547
Oliver ROS: .271/.324/.404

Martin was recently called up to the majors as insurance in case Josh Hamilton's virus kept him out for an extended time. Fortunately Hamilton was able to return after only a few days, so now I'd expect Martin to be sent back down to get regular at-bats at Triple-A.

Although he's only played 31 games due to thumb surgery, Martin has played well and appears about ready to try the majors. On most teams he would probably get that chance soon, but Martin's on the Rangers, whose backup center fielder is batting .350. So no clear path to playing time exists, but injuries are always a real possibility in the Ranger outfield, which could lead to semi-regular time for Martin. Given the chance, Martin could post a solid .270-.280s average with a few homers and around 15 steals. Think Denard Span.
Recommendation: Can be ignored for now, but those in AL-only and deep mixed leagues should be ready to add if a Rangers outfielder gets injured.

Chris Archer | Tampa Bay Rays | SP | ESPN: 0.2 percent ownership, Yahoo: 2 percent ownership
YTD (AAA): 4.81 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 10.57 K/9, 5.28 BB/9
Oliver ROS: 5.56 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 7.1 K/9

Archer impressively went toe-to-toe with Strasburg in his debut Wednesday, allowing just three hits over six innings with seven strikeouts. His three runs allowed (one earned) sadly didn't earn him a win, but it was an impressive performance nonetheless. The story with Archer is he can strike plenty of guys out with his slider, but quite simply walks too many batters.

Filling in for Jeremy Hellickson he may only get one more start, but since it's against the Royals, those in deeper leagues should consider streaming him.
Recommendation: Should be added in AL-only leagues and 16+ mixed. Can be spot-started any league.

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Tradable closers

Paul Singman — 2012-06-20T10:13:15+00:00

As if there hasn't been enough closer turnover already this season, the July 31st trade deadline usually provides some chaos of its own as a few bullpen arms are likely to change teams. Although we can't know for sure who will stay and who will go, it's still important to be aware of who can stay and go. With that said, let's take a look at this year's closer trade candidates. Starting with the most likely:

Trade candidates

Brett Myers — No team has more of an incentive to move its closer than the Astros, since Myer's contract includes a hefty $10 million dollar option for next year if he finishes 45 games. The rebuilding 'Stros certainly don't want that sum on their books, so a trade makes sense.

Brandon Lyon and Wilton Lopez are the candidates to replace Myers as closer. Given his closing experience and Lopez's recent injury, I'd give the nod to Lyon as the more likely replacement, though Lyon is also someone who could be traded, so he's no lock to close even if Myers is dealt. Or, rather, when Myers is dealt.

Matt Capps — Even though he strikes almost no one out, give Capps credit, he's limited walks and enough hits to pitch pretty well this year. Granted, I surely wouldn't want Capps to be my closer. But he's still a valuable reliever, and could a be worth a secondary prospect to a contender. Either Glen Perkins or the surprising Jared Burton would step up if Capps is sent packing.

Huston Street —The building and then breaking of the Padres bullpen is likely to continue this year when Street is flipped for prospects. Personally, I think the Padres should keep all of their bullpen arms and assemble baseball's version of The Avengers. Imagine if they had done this and their bullpen was Street, Mike Adams, Ernesto Frieri, Cory Luebke, Heath Bell (the good version), and Luke Gregorson. Now that would be unstoppable.

Unfortunately, the Padres won't be receptive to this plan and probably will just look to deal Street. I'd expect Gregorson or Dale Thayer to get saves if Street's traded, by the way.

Jonathan Broxton — The Royals placed a $4 million dollar bet this offseason that Broxton could turn around his career, and that bet has paid off so far in the form of a 1.63 ERA over 27 innings. Now the Royals are probably hoping it pays off in another way, in the form of a prospect or two. The clear replacement is Greg Holland, who I covered in last week's Waiver Wire.

Rafael Betancourt — Betancourt has been one of baseball's best closers this year and also has a long history of success out of the bullpen. Any contending team should love to have his services, while the 25-40 Rockies haven't much use for them.

If a trade occurs, setup man Matt Belisle would likely slide into a closing role for the Rockies, though he is also a trade candidate himself. If both are shipped, former first-rounder Adam Ottavino has broken out this year and could be handed the closer's keys in Colorado.

J.J. Putz — Putz has one of the best strikeout-to-walk ratios of any closer, but some bad luck with balls in play and home runs has his ERA at 5.14 for the year. Despite the ERA, Putz still should be viewed as an elite reliever. Currently at .500, the D'backs might not be sellers at the deadline, but if they fall a few more games back of the Giants over the next month, they might have to accept if a good offer comes their way. David Hernandez would fill in if that's the case.

Final thoughts

The trade deadline usually plays out fairly unexpectedly, so it will be interesting to see where some of these names end up. As a last note, I expect the Cubs would love to move Carlos Marmol, but that would require eating lots of ~~salad~~ ~~celery~~ salary and, to be honest, who would really want Marmol at this point?

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AL Waiver Wire: Week 10

Paul Singman — 2012-06-15T06:36:15+00:00

Greg Holland | Kansas City Royals | RP | ESPN: 1.6 percent ownership, Yahoo: 10 percent ownership
YTD: 3.68 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 12.27 K/9, 5.32 BB/9
Oliver ROS: 3.51 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.9 K/9

Holland had a rough start to the season, finishing April on the DL with a ribcage injury and a 11.37 ERA. Since returning though, he's been the lights-out reliever we met last year, allowing one run in 16 innings with 19 strikeouts. His 3.68 ERA on the year still hasn't fully recovered from the beating it took in April, but Holland is clearly an elite reliever right now.

Jonathan Broxton is the man getting saves in Kansas City, but his renaissance in the "Paris of the plains" is only helping to punch his ticket to a contender in July. Holland is the clear setup man here, and has a very good chance to be the closer around a month from now. Wild speculation encouraged.
Recommendation: Should be added in any competitive saves league (assuming non-competitive saves leagues exist).

Adam Lind | Toronto Blue Jays | 1B | ESPN: 24.8 percent ownership, Yahoo:19 percent ownership
YTD: .186/,273/,314 (Triple-A: .419/.477/.699)
Oliver ROS: .260/.314/.458

If sending Lind to Triple-A was the baseball equivalent of a "time-out," I think the 28-year-old has learned his lesson. And while he's crushing the PCL like it's his playpen, replacement David Cooper's production has come a screeching halt. Lind should be back up with the big boys soon, and while he may never hit lefties, his power potential makes him a worthy addition in most leagues.
Recommendation: Should be re-added in 14+ team mixed leagues where he was dropped.

A.J. Griffin | Oakland A's | SP | Not in player pool
YTD: (43 Double-A innings) 2.49 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 1.45 BB/9, 9.41 K/9
(36 Triple-A innings) 3.22 ERA, 0.96, 1.49 BB/9, 7.93 K/9
Oliver ROS: 4.54 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 6.5 K/9

The A's rotation will soon be in a state of upheaval with Brandon McCarthy maybe hitting the DL, Bartolo Colon sure to be traded, and Travis Blackley's hold on the fifth spot tenuous at best. Even with Brett Anderson and Dallas Braden slated to return sometime in the second half, this presents the opportunity for a couple more young arms to jump up to the bigs.

Graham Godfrey already got his chance at the start of the season, but after four starts was 0-4 with a 6.16 ERA and returned to the minors. In Triple-A he's pitched well and could be first in line to move back up. After Godfrey, people will probably think Brad Peacock—one of the near major league-ready arms the A's received for Gio Gonzalez—but he hasn't been particularly sharp thus far.

On the other hand, Griffin has been stellar in both Double and Triple-A this year. He's no top prospect, ranked 19th in the A's system by Sickels (Peacock is fourth), and has been spoken of very little on the interwebs. His numbers, however, speak for themselves.

Griffin has struck nearly a batter an inning this year and has done a tremendous job limiting walks, issuing a mere 13 in 80 innings. He's not a highly touted arm so his stuff might not fool major league hitters, but he's pitching well enough to deserve a shot. The A's have a habit of producing quality arms, so add Griffin to your watch list.
Recommendation: Should only be considered in the deepest AL-only leagues. Otherwise just add him to your mental watch list.

Ryan Kalish | Boston Red Sox | OF | ESPN: 0.1 percent ownership, 0 percent ownership
YTD: (34 Triple-A plate appearances) .429/.529/.821
Oliver ROS: .267/.331/.430

Kalish's season recently began due to offseason shoulder surgery, and, boy, is he making up for lost time. Currently in Triple-A, he's posted the monster slash line you see above with three homers in seven games. Boston will likely give him at least a few more weeks to prove himself in the minors, but if he's still hitting then, a call-up is certainly possible. Even though regular playing time probably won't exist for Kalish given the mess that is the Red Sox outfield, by September I'd hope Ryan Sweeney and Daniel Nava don't prevent the Sox from getting a good look at one of their top prospects.

With decent pop and speed, and the ability to put up a respectable .270-.280s average, Kalish could be a valuable player to own come September.
Recommendation: Can be stashed in deep AL_only leagues. Everyone else, just watch for now.

Franklin Gutierrez | Seattle Mariners | OF | ESPN: 0 percent ownership, Yahoo: 1 percent ownership
YTD: four PAs, one hit, one walk, one HBP
Oliver ROS: .245/.296/.349

You may remember in 2008 and 2009 Gutierrez was a solid fantasy player capable of 15 homers and 20 steals. Then, injuries ruined his 2011 season. Since then he's been fighting to regain his health, and now, midway into the 2012 season, he finally appears healthy. In his first game last night, Gutierrez batted eighth and went 1-for-2 with an RBI single and a walk.

How he'll produce is anyone's guess—a .270 average with seven homers and 10 steals is about as optimistic as I'll get with FraGu. At least he's slated for regular at-bats as the Mariners center fielder, and in some leagues that makes him worthy of an add by itself.
Recommendation: Can be considered as an add in 16+ team mixed and AL-only leagues.

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Why we add the hot hitter

Paul Singman — 2012-06-12T07:30:15+00:00

It's been debunked in The Book, and there are probably a few internet articles I could link to, that prove hitter hot streaks largely not predictive of future performance. That is, a player who out of nowhere bats .400 with four homers in one week is essentially no more likely to repeat that line next week than a player who batted .100 with zero homers. This is, of course, assuming the two players had the same true talent estimate for hitting home runs and such things beforehand.

If this be the case, then why do so many fantasy baseball articles revolve around this very phenomenon, the hot hitter? Are we, the fantasy community, acting short-sighted by jumping furiously on every hot streak to flash across our respective monitors?

The answer isn't a straightforward "yes" or "no," instead pulled by conflicting factors and falling somewhere in between. I'll look at a few of those factors in the following paragraphs and argue that for the most part, the answer is in fact "no." Despite what research has proven, investing in hot streaks in fantasy baseball is not a bad idea.

Playing time and batting orders

Like fantasy baseball managers, major league managers often make lineup decisions based on who's performing and who is not. If this means that the hot player could be given a greater share of playing time in a platoon or moved from eighth to second in the lineup as a result of his good play, then that is a tangible benefit from playing well. Even if the hitter doesn't continue his hot-hitting ways, his value has still increased.

Injuries and the threat of demotion

There may be a research piece that refutes this, but it makes logical sense that a hot-hitting player is less likely to be injured than an underperforming one, at least in the short term. Injuries can often explain poor play, but it would be quite an amazing story for an injury to explain great play. Freak injuries, of course, would be excluded here, as Troy Tulowitzki will tell you.

Similar to the playing time reasoning above, a hot streak can decrease the chance of being demoted for a fringe player whose roster spot is in jeopardy.

Trade value

Given two identical players, except for whatever reason one has a greater trade value (say one was a top prospect), you would always take the player with more trade value. This is because being able to trade a player is like an option a fantasy owner can exercise on a player, and the more that player can return in a trade, the more valuable the option.

More often than not, a player on a hot streak will hold more trade value than a similar player who isn't. And let's say both players play very well the following week, which is fair because they are equally likely to do so. Now we have one player who people will still be fairly skeptical of with just one strong week. The other, the player who was hot before, now has two good weeks to his name and may start to convince people of his long-term ability.

If you hate trading with the people in your league, though, I guess you wouldn't value this point too much.

Final thoughts

The overarching theme here is of the discouraging sort: We know little of players' true talent levels and even less about how they'll perform in the short term, so the success of the personnel decisions we make is largely luck influenced. With that in mind, it makes sense to simply choose to add the hot hands for the extra benefits explained above.

No one is suggesting dropping a player who is clearly superior for a worse talent on a hot streak... but for two players ranked closely enough, there's no shame in trying to ride the hot hitter.

It's often more fun that way, or at least that's how you'll remember it.

Thanks to this Mr. Thell comment on a Fangraphs article yesterday for the inspiration.

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AL Waiver Wire: Week 9

Paul Singman — 2012-06-08T10:04:15+00:00

Michael Saunders | Seattle Mariners | OF | ESPN: 13.7 percent ownership, Yahoo: 17 percent ownership
YTD: .277/.346/.462
Oliver ROS: 45 R, 8 HR, 38 RBI, 10 SB, .220 AVG

With 18 hits in his last eight games, including seven of the extra-base variety, I'm guessing Saunders has already been picked up in most competitive leagues. If he hasn't been in yours though, this is your notice: Go pick him up! With six homers and nine steals already on the season, Saunders has surprising power and speed. Plus, with his recent hot streak he's been moved up from eighth to sixth in the lineup, which should only increase his RBI opportunities.

The only area where Saunders will struggle is batting average, where his current .277 mark is probably at its peak. Oliver projects a .218 average the rest of the way, which seems a bit harsh, but as long as he can hit around .240, his production elsewhere should make up for it. I don't think a .240 average is asking so much. Even Drew Stubbs can do that.

Interestingly Saunders has an extreme home/road split this season (.185 average 0 homers at home, .301 average and 6 homers on the road). Safeco is no hitters haven but the difference should be nowhere this extreme and is likely mostly just a small sample fluke. Still, the Mariners have their next nine games at home so it will be an interesting test to see if his hot streak can continue there.

Saunders has likely been playing over his head the past week, but as is the case with most hot streaks, the best course of action is to add the player, hope it lasts as long as possible, and trade him if you can get something of value in return. Saunders' streak is no different.
Recommendation: Should be added in all leagues.

Sean Doolittle | Oakland A's | RP | ESPN: 0.2 percent ownership, Yahoo: 0 percent ownership
YTD (minors): 0.72 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 2.52 BB/9, 17.3 K/9
Oliver ROS: 3.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.3 K/9

Doolittle has logged all of 27 innings in his professional career, and yet he's already in the majors and being recommended as a fantasy pickup. However, his path to the majors wasn't nearly as deliberate as that innings total suggests, since Doolittle is actually a converted first baseman and began pitching essentially this year.

Beginning the season in Single-A, he threw 10 innings there while striking out 21, walking just two, and allowing one run. After another 11 innings at Double-A Midland and four in Triple-A with similar success, the A's decided to add Doolittle to their major league 'pen.

On Tuesday he made his first appearance against the Rangers and faced four batters, here's the play log:

N. Cruz struck out swinging
M. Napoli struck out swinging
Y. Torrealba struck out looking
C. Gentry lined out to first

It was an impressive first appearance, against a couple of tough hitters no less. For now Doolittle will fall into a middle relief role, but the A's bullpen is likely to be shaken up in the coming month. Grant Balfour is very likely to be traded and current closer Brian Fuentes, even if not traded, doesn't look like he'll hold on the job much longer. If those moves occur, Doolittle will find himself on a short list of possible closing candidates for the A's. And even if he doesn't close, he may simply be valuable enough to own because of his ERA and strikeout numbers alone.
Recommendation: Should be owned in AL-only leagues, deep mixed leagues, and by anyone looking to speculate on saves.

Travis D'Arnaud | Toronto Blue Jays | C | ESPN: 0.2 percent ownership, Yahoo 1 percent ownership
YTD (AAA): .321/.374/.584
Oliver ROS: .252/.300/.443

In his first year at Triple-A, the 23 year old d'Arnaud is proving his worth with a .321 average, 13 home runs and a strikeout rate below 20 percent. Granted, this is one of those PCL "grain of salt" lines, but his 143 wRC+ shows that he's still hitting 43 percent better than the average PCL hitter. I consider this impressive.

Is it impressive enough to warrant a call-up? With catchers the answer is especially tricky considering you never really know if a team considers a catcher defensively ready. At least John Sickels praised d'Arnaud's defensive abilities in his write-up of him last year. A lot of the answer to that question though is dependent on the man currently catching for the Jays: J.P. Arencibia
.

At first glance fantasy owners may see Arencibia's nine homers, 29 RBI and think he's been a valuable catcher, but the Jays front office is probably looking more at his .267 OBP and 0.5 WAR and showing concern. If the Blue Jays are serious about contending this year, it might make sense to call up d'Arnaud sooner rather than later.

I don't think anything is particularly imminent here, but give it another couple of weeks of mediocre Arencibia play and then start to listen for the promotion grumblings. d'Arnaud doesn't need to be added in most leagues yet, but if you're in a two catcher league with George Kotteras as your second catcher as I do, D'Arnaud can be a good player to stash away if you have the room.
Recommendation: Worth stashing in 2-catcher AL-only and mixed leagues where there's a need.

Ben Revere | Minnesota Twins | OF | ESPN: 1.6 percent ownership, Yahoo: 4 percent ownership
YTD: .307/.337/.409
Oliver ROS: .274/.313/.329

Ben Revere will bat either first or second for the Twins and therefore should score ample runs. Ben Revere will also hit for at least a .270 average but could push a .300 average too with a little luck. Yes, it will be an empty batting average. Ben Revere will also steal 20-something bases the rest of the season.

Now let's see what Ben Revere won't do. He won't drive many batters in, and certainly he won't put many baseballs over the fence. To sum it up, Revere is your standard three-cat contributor, which isn't bad for a fourth or fifth outfielder on most teams.

Playing time used to be a major concern for Revere, whose spot in right field has been filled with an odd bunch of players this season. This bunch included Clete Thomas, Trevor Plouffe, Ryan Doumit, Erik Komatsu and Darin Mastroianni to name names. Mastroianni is the only one to actually play in right field the past few weeks, though, and his slugging percentage is currently the same as his batting average: .152. I hope that paints the picture of his ineffectiveness.

Revere, on the other hand, has been rather effective, slapping 20 singles in 23 games and almost never striking out (6.3 K percentage). He also plays tremendous defense, which can only help to keep his bat in the lineup. Twins center fielder Denard Span is widely considered to be a trade deadline mover, and if he gets traded that will open up center field and even more guaranteed playing time for Revere.

There's not much upside here, but Revere isn't likely to hurt you with his play, either. Any team light on steals should have no problem adding him.
Recommendation: Should be added in AL-only and 14+ mixed leagues. For anything shallower, the team should have a specific stolen base need.

Brandon Moss | Oakland A's | 1B/OF | ESPN: 0 percent ownership, Yahoo: 0 percent ownership
YTD (AAA): .286/.371/.582
Oliver ROS: .243/.310/.431

The latest victim in the A's revolving door of mediocrity at first base was Kila Ka'aihue, presenting an opportunity for the 28-year-old Moss. In Triple-A this year he batted .286 with 15 home runs, good for a 146 wRC+. Most importantly, he also cut his strikeout rate to a tidy 18 percent.

Expectations aren't very high for Moss, but its worth noting that Oliver likes what he sees, projecting a .243 average and 21 home runs given a full season of at-bats. Given that he will also play nearly every day for a week at least, Moss should be an intriguing add for those in deeper leagues where at-bats are a currency of their own.
Recommendation: Can be added in deep AL-only leagues, and 16+ team mixed.

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Prospect promotions: Lonnie Chisenhall

Paul Singman — 2012-05-30T06:31:15+00:00

Ball meets bat. (US Presswire)

In Cleveland the Jack Hannahan and Jose Lopez show at third base has taken a bow and the Lonnie Chisenhall main act is set to take the stage. And with a home run in his first game Monday, he's already grabbed a lot of attention. Now let's see how well he'll hold it.

Chisenhall, a former first-rounder, had a fairly lengthy pilot appearance in the majors last year, hitting .255 in 66 games with seven home runs. Fantasy-wise that's not bad, but when you walk only eight times as he did, the result is a .284 OBP, which isn't gonna cut it.

The Indians began him this year in Triple-A, where he worked hard at improving his BABIP, from .300 last year to its current .356 mark. Otherwise his strikeout rate is essentially the same at 16-17 percent and his walk rate has even dropped from 10 to just three percent this year.

His one area of improvement came in the power department, where he's hit four homers in his 27 games. Since four home runs is an improvement you should be able to infer that Chisenhall isn't much of a power hitter, but he could hit around 12-to-15 bombs the rest of the way. I don't see him breaking 20 though.

The increase in BABIP I joked about earlier isn't something to be just written off as luck—there probably is also an element of him actually hitting the ball hard more consistently, meaning an average in the .270s or even .280s is expected.

Unfortunately Chisenhall steals bases like he does computers, poorly, so he won't offer much there.

Overall, Chisenhall looks like a decent option at third base but he isn't a Matt Adams impact-bat type that you should be breaking the FAAB bank over or necessarily using a No. 1 waiver claim on. Another big reason for this I've yet to mention is playing time concerns.

While Hannahan is out for three weeks with back and calf strains, Chisenhall is all but guaranteed at-bats. However, despite what A's and Mariners fans might remember of Hannahan, he's hitting a respectable 113 wRC+ (13 percent better than average) this season and has a good reputation with the glove. When he's hitting, he's a sneakily valuable player and if Chisenhall doesn't go on a tear the next few weeks, I wouldn't be surprised to see the two in some sort of time-share at third when he returns or even demoted if he has options.

In mixed leagues with FAAB budgets of $100 I can't see bidding more than $3 on Chisenhall, which probably won't land him. That's fine by me, since I think there are more exciting prospects in the pipeline who could be called up soon. Speaking of...

Everyone knows about Anthony Rizzo, who should be called up once his wrist heals in a few days. There's also Royals outfielder (with catcher eligibility in Yahoo!) Wil Myers, who might not be as close to a promotion but has Troutsian talent and is likely worth a bench spot.

In the post-hype realm there is another Indian, Matt LaPorta, who is back to terrorizing Triple-A pitchers with a 191 wRC+, while Casey Kotchman and Johnny Damon aren't looking like the first baseman or left fielder a playoff bound team should start. LaPorta can deliver real power—he already has 13 homers in 40 games. Whether he can do that in the majors is still a major question, though. I'm willing to bet small amounts he can.

That's all I got for ya. Now excuse me while I pray for a Travis D'Arnaud callup.

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Which lineups should be feared?

Paul Singman — 2012-05-22T09:06:15+00:00

As fantasy baseball players we develop certain rules that we use as shortcuts when making personnel decisions. Stream pitchers against the Padres at home or avoid the Rangers lineup are two common examples. Admit it, you use these, too.

Everything is constantly changing in the baseball landscape though, so every so often it's a good idea to make sure the stats still support the rules. To do this I checked out the FanGraphs team leaderboard, which shows us how many runs each team is scoring. Here are the top 10 scoring teams in 2012:


+============+=====+
| Team       |	R  |
+============+=====+
| Rangers    | 235 |
| Red Sox    | 221 |
| Cardinals  | 217 |
| Braves     | 216 |
| Blue Jays  | 200 |
| Orioles    | 193 |
| Rockies    | 191 |
| Yankees    | 189 | 
| Dodgers    | 183 |
| Rays       | 182 |
+============+=====+

First off, notice that every AL East club makes the cut. Pity the modern-day AL East pitcher, for his challenge is great. Unless you are Jeremy Hellickson, of course.

Overall the top scoring teams look pretty much in accordance with what people expect, but there are a few surprises. Despite currently employing an outfield Theo Epstein might not even recognize, the Sawx are still a team to avoid. Their infield is one of the best offensive units and thankfully Will Middlebrooks is purportedly here to stay even when Kevin Youkilis returns.

The Braves are a somewhat sneaky offensive machine, lacking any real star power. Regardless, Michael Bourn and Martin Prado are great table setters and then Freddie Freeman, Dan Uggla, and Co. feast in driving them home. Bottom line: The Braves are not a team you want your pitcher pitching against.

Obviously right now the Rays are a bit less scary without Evan Longoria anchoring that lineup.

+===========+=====+
| Team      |  R  | 
+===========+=====+
| Tigers    | 180 |
| Indians   | 179 |
| Brewers   | 176 |
| White Sox | 174 |
| Mets      | 172 |
| Phillies  | 171 |
| D'backs   | 169 |
| Astros    | 167 |
| Mariners  | 164 |
| Royals    | 160 |
+===========+=====+

The next set of 10 teams features two that people generally associate with anemic offense, the Mariners and Astros. Give these teams some credit, though, they've been better this year and are no Sunday stroll for opposing pitchers. The Mariners in particular have been "dragon slaying" a lot of quality starters this year, most recently with their encore performance against Yu Darvish last night.

It's a little surprising to see the Tigers and White Sox here, considering how well both teams' stars have played. However both have a few clunkers at the end of the lineup, highlighted by Ryan Raburn's .144/.213/.216 line. How did this guy ever hit in the .280s in half seasons?

+===========+=====+
| Team      |  R  |
+===========+=====+
| Giants    | 155 |
| Nationals | 155 |
| Twins     | 155 |
| Reds      | 155 |
| Angels    | 153 |
| Marlins   | 152 |
| Athletics | 150 |
| Cubs      | 149 |
| Padres    | 133 |
| Pirates   | 118 |
+===========+=====+

Wow, the Pirates have really been that bad, creating a sizable gap between them and the second-to-last Padres? No wonder Justin Verlander almost no-hit them.

No surprise here with the A's and Cubs near the bottom, but seeing the Cincinnati offense ranked this low is unexpected. I still fully expect the Reds offense to heat up—keep in mind their home park is a haven to hitters—but right now they are a team not scoring many runs and striking out a lot. Especially away from their home, don't hesitate to start a pitcher against the Reds.

Lastly, it's sad to see the Angels ranked so low. Albert Pujols can't do all the heavy lifting on his own, I suppose.

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