The Hardball Times -- Paul Singman

Which lineups should be feared?

Paul Singman — 2012-05-22T09:06:15+00:00

As fantasy baseball players we develop certain rules that we use as shortcuts when making personnel decisions. Stream pitchers against the Padres at home or avoid the Rangers lineup are two common examples. Admit it, you use these, too.

Everything is constantly changing in the baseball landscape though, so every so often it's a good idea to make sure the stats still support the rules. To do this I checked out the FanGraphs team leaderboard, which shows us how many runs each team is scoring. Here are the top 10 scoring teams in 2012:


+============+=====+
| Team       |	R  |
+============+=====+
| Rangers    | 235 |
| Red Sox    | 221 |
| Cardinals  | 217 |
| Braves     | 216 |
| Blue Jays  | 200 |
| Orioles    | 193 |
| Rockies    | 191 |
| Yankees    | 189 | 
| Dodgers    | 183 |
| Rays       | 182 |
+============+=====+

First off, notice that every AL East club makes the cut. Pity the modern-day AL East pitcher, for his challenge is great. Unless you are Jeremy Hellickson, of course.

Overall the top scoring teams look pretty much in accordance with what people expect, but there are a few surprises. Despite currently employing an outfield Theo Epstein might not even recognize, the Sawx are still a team to avoid. Their infield is one of the best offensive units and thankfully Will Middlebrooks is purportedly here to stay even when Kevin Youkilis returns.

The Braves are a somewhat sneaky offensive machine, lacking any real star power. Regardless, Michael Bourn and Martin Prado are great table setters and then Freddie Freeman, Dan Uggla, and Co. feast in driving them home. Bottom line: The Braves are not a team you want your pitcher pitching against.

Obviously right now the Rays are a bit less scary without Evan Longoria anchoring that lineup.

+===========+=====+
| Team      |  R  | 
+===========+=====+
| Tigers    | 180 |
| Indians   | 179 |
| Brewers   | 176 |
| White Sox | 174 |
| Mets      | 172 |
| Phillies  | 171 |
| D'backs   | 169 |
| Astros    | 167 |
| Mariners  | 164 |
| Royals    | 160 |
+===========+=====+

The next set of 10 teams features two that people generally associate with anemic offense, the Mariners and Astros. Give these teams some credit, though, they've been better this year and are no Sunday stroll for opposing pitchers. The Mariners in particular have been "dragon slaying" a lot of quality starters this year, most recently with their encore performance against Yu Darvish last night.

It's a little surprising to see the Tigers and White Sox here, considering how well both teams' stars have played. However both have a few clunkers at the end of the lineup, highlighted by Ryan Raburn's .144/.213/.216 line. How did this guy ever hit in the .280s in half seasons?

+===========+=====+
| Team      |  R  |
+===========+=====+
| Giants    | 155 |
| Nationals | 155 |
| Twins     | 155 |
| Reds      | 155 |
| Angels    | 153 |
| Marlins   | 152 |
| Athletics | 150 |
| Cubs      | 149 |
| Padres    | 133 |
| Pirates   | 118 |
+===========+=====+

Wow, the Pirates have really been that bad, creating a sizable gap between them and the second-to-last Padres? No wonder Justin Verlander almost no-hit them.

No surprise here with the A's and Cubs near the bottom, but seeing the Cincinnati offense ranked this low is unexpected. I still fully expect the Reds offense to heat up—keep in mind their home park is a haven to hitters—but right now they are a team not scoring many runs and striking out a lot. Especially away from their home, don't hesitate to start a pitcher against the Reds.

Lastly, it's sad to see the Angels ranked so low. Albert Pujols can't do all the heavy lifting on his own, I suppose.

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Save tonight

Paul Singman — 2012-05-15T09:03:15+00:00

Last night was a special night if you ask me. No, not because Bryce Harper hit his first home run (though it was pretty sweet). And no, not 'cause it was the season premier of The Bachelorette (a helicopter, really?)

Last night was special because not one save was blown by a closer. Not one.

These days it seems every night features at least one blown save, or often times more. When one of my closers enters a game with a one-run lead, I'm trembling. With a two-run lead, my breath quickens. With a three-run lead, I don't think there are any noticeable signs, but I could be wrong.

In memoriam of last night, let's do a recap of all of the closers who protected leads successfully:

Addison Reed — White Sox

We got a satisfying, complete look at the White Sox closing trio last night. Hector Santiago pitched the seventh, Matt Thornton shut down the middle of the lineup in the eighth, and then Reed got the call to close out the ninth and picked up his third save. My guess is Ventura stays true to his word that the three are truly in a committee and one of Thornton or Santiago gets the next opp.

The White Sox are playing a game of closer hot potato with the first to blow a save receiving a lesser piece of the timeshare. Based on skill, that points to Santiago being the most likely to drop out of the picture, but with closer hot potato anything can happen! It was nice to see Ventura still trusting Reed despite his Mother's Day meltdown.

One last note: Jesse Crain will likely come off the DL today and also could get in the mix.

Ladies and gents, Addison Reed. Not related to Elliot Reed. (US Presswire)

Sean Burnett — Nationals

Okay, so not every closer did his job last night since Henry Rodriguez got bailed out big by Sean Burnett, who induced a game-ending double play that cleaned a Rodriguez induced mess. While converting just one out, H-Rod managed to walk three Padres before getting yanked from the game.

You may recall that in Rodriguez's last appearance he also blew the save via Joey Votto's walk-off grand slam. So in terms of leashes, Rodriguez has to have his held tight right to his neck. H-Rod will probably stay the closer for now though one more blown save and I'd presume he's out. Brad Lidge and Drew Storen are both a few weeks from returning either way.

Rafael Soriano — Yankees

With a possible DL stint in line for David Robertson (oblique/ribcage strain), Soriano pitched a clean ninth for his second save. Soriano will likely have a chance to run away with the Yankees closing gig.

Rafael Dolis — Cubs

Dolis impressively struck out two Cardinals in a clean ninth to pick up his fourth save. His job looks safe for now but things will likely get more interesting when he starts pitching in line with how his poor peripherals say he should, and when Carlos Marmol comes off the DL in a couple of weeks.

Joel Hanrahan— Pirates

Hanrahan is one of the safer closer options out there but even he isn't quite right with an uncharacteristic nine walks in his 12 innings this year. It was nice to see him throw 11 of 15 pitches for strikes last night as he picked up save number seven.

Frank Francisco — Mets

Yes, Francisco got the save. And yes, he gave up a run. Hey, on the bright side it was only one! I'm guessing Mets fans would rather see anyone over Francisco in the closer role, even Oliver Perez. Okay, maybe not Ollie but at least Jon Rauch or Bobby Parnell.

Change is likely imminent here.

Sean Marshall — Reds

Marshall picked up save six, adding two more strikeouts in the process. The K rate is high (13.15) and walk rate low (2.08) so you have to like him going forward.

Jonathan Broxton — Royals

I'll give props to anyone who picks up a save against the Rangers, which is what Broxton did last night for his eighth of the season. Granted, he didn't face the meaty part of that lineup, but it's still been a nice comeback year for the former ace closer.

Chris Perez — Indians

Once again Perez is the major league saves leader, now with 12. Note that a guy I think could replace Perez if he loses the job, Nick Hagadone, served up a blast to Ryan Doumit in the eighth inning. Hagadone still has an impressive 1.74 ERA for the year.

Kenley Jansen — Dodgers

Jansen shut the door on the D-backs for his fourth save and has been effective as the closer since his inevitable takeover of Javy Guerra's ninth inning job. He could be a top-tier closer in next year's drafts.

Santiago Casilla — Giants

Casilla pitched a messy ninth, allowing an unearned run, but still got the save. It was save eight for the man filling in for Brian Wilson, He's filled in admirably and looks like he'll keep the role all year.

Quick reminder and a Tout Wars update

I keep track of every closer situation at Closer Watch. I know I've been unreliable in the past, but the past few weeks I've been updating it basically every night and as far as I know it's the most up-to-date closer chart online.

In Tout Wars this week I picked up Christian Friedrich for $2 FAAB dollars (looked great last night) and Jon Rauch for $5. I'm still sittin' pretty in the standings, dominating the pitching stats and holding my own in hitting. There's still a long way to go till the end of the season, though.

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Picking up pitchers

Paul Singman — 2012-05-11T06:14:15+00:00

Let's talk about adding players, pitchers specifically.

With adding pitchers as opposed to hitters, the short-term schedule is a much greater determining factor. If one guy has the Cardinals and Yankees on the upcoming schedule and another is facing the Padres in Petco and the forecast calls for strong inward gusts, you probably want the second pitcher. In that case, circumstance trumps talent.

If all you are looking for is a spot starter, then fine, add the pitcher facing the Padres for one start and then dump him after. No one's feelings get hurt.

If you want something more long term, though, then obviously one start at Petco isn't a deal breaker. In fact, I would argue it can be smart to look for a pitcher you're interested in who has an upcoming start against the Cardinals, Yankees, or even (gasp) the Rangers.

Think of that start as an opportunity for the pitcher to prove himself. Add him before and let him sit on your bench for the one start. If he does pitch respectably against the potent lineup, his stock will likely jump and then you can start him with confidence against whomever he faces next.

What's the point of adding a pitcher before he faces the Mariners if you aren't going to trust him after, even if pitches well?

A player who exemplifies my point is Drew Smyly. Smyly was an unproven youngster who was promoted aggressively into the Tigers rotation after spending only one year in the minors. After his first two starts against the Rays and Royals this year, he appeared on people's radars, having allowed one run in 10 innings with eight strikeouts.

Instead of adding him though, I would bet many people shied away, seeing his next two scheduled starts were about as bad as it gets—one at home vs. the Rangers and the next at Yankee Stadium against the Bombers.

Smyly ended up pitching great against both teams: going six innings, allowing one run, and striking out seven in both starts. Afterwards his value skyrocketed and he was already scooped up in most leagues. And since then, Smyly's tossed two quality outings against the White Sox and Mariners.

Of course, this strategy isn't foolproof. Just because someone shuts out the Yankees doesn't mean he won't get blown up by the A's in his next start. Stranger things have happened. Also, what I'm asking requires a roster spot to lay barren for a few days—a luxury you might not be able to afford.

In the right situation, though, thinking of a tough start as a opportunity for a pitcher to prove himself instead of simply avoiding it can pay dividends later. You might think quite differently of Jerome Williams if he holds his own against the Rangers on Saturday.

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Make them notice: Andy Dirks

Paul Singman — 2012-05-09T06:17:15+00:00

Let's see what you can do, Andy (US Presswire)

Yesterday I was perusing a few fantasy baseball articles, and this one with AL OF rankings by RotoGraph's David Wiers caught my attention.

Looking through the tiers I realized that Austin Jackson was nowhere to be found. You know, the Tigers outfielder with the insane BABIP. Scrolling down, I saw the commenters were quick to point this out, and he was quickly added to tier three. Crisis averted.

I started perusing again. I was looking in particular for where another Tigers outfielder, Andy Dirks was located. Tier five? Nope. Six? Nada. Surely he would be in tier seven I thought, but once again, negative. Rajai Davis and his non-existent production was in tier seven so my concern grew.

I arrived at the last and final stop, tier eight. Here's what I saw:

Tier Eight
Jacoby Ellsbury
Brennan Boesch
Delmon Young
Ryan Raburn
Carl Crawford
Alex Rios
Lorenzo Cain

I spy two injured stars, another injured player who was never very good, a washed-up White Sock, and then three other Tigers hitters. No Andy Dirks.

I quickly checked the comments and not even one person was puzzled by Dirks' lack of inclusion. This was intentional. For comedy's sake, here are the slash lines of those Tigers hitters:

Raburn: .127/.192/.169 in 79 PA
Young: .221/.291/.299 in 86 PA with a derogatory slur thrown in
Boesch: .209/.229/.330 in 118 PA and a recent demotion from the second to eighth spot in the lineup

And who was promoted to that coveted second spot in the Tigers lineup in front of Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera over the weekend? You guessed it, Andy Dirks.

In comparison, here's Dirks' current slash line: .333/.358/.608 in 53 PA. Refreshing, isn't it?

I don't expect Dirks to keep up that gaudy pace, but let's take a look at his past numbers to get a sense of what to expect from him going forward.

+------+------+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+------+-------+-------+-------+
| Year | Team | G  | PA  | HR | R  | RBI | SB | AVG  | BABIP | BB%   | K%    |
+------+------+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+------+-------+-------+-------+
| 2009 | A+   | 27 | 117 |  0 | 11 |  18 | 10 | .330 |  .370 | 11.10 |  9.40 |
| 2009 | AA   | 98 | 408 |  6 | 46 |  44 | 11 | .255 |  .287 |  8.80 | 15.00 |
| 2010 | AA   | 98 | 434 | 11 | 64 |  46 | 19 |	.278 |  .300 |  8.10 | 13.60 |
| 2010 | AAA  | 22 |  93 |  4 | 14 |  17 |  3 | .375 |  .397 |  3.20 | 12.90 |
| 2011 | AAA  | 41 | 172 |  7 | 30 |  24 | 12 | .325 |  .355 |  7.00 | 16.30 |
| 2011 | MAJ  | 78 | 235 |  7 | 34 |  28 |  5 | .251 |  .273 |  4.70 | 15.30 |
| 2012 | MAJ  | 16 |  53 |  2 |  9 |   7 |  0 | .333 |  .333 |  1.90 |  7.50 |
+------+------+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+------+-------+-------+-------+

The first thing that jumps out is the low strikeout percentage Dirks has maintained throughout his professional career. This should allow him to hit for at least a .280 average as long as he continues to make solid contact and post BABIPs around .300 or above. A .300 average isn't out of the question either.

Dirks has never displayed great power or speed, but you can see he provides a bit of both. A final line with 15 homers and 15 steals seems reasonable based on what he's produced in the past.

Finally, what puts it all together are the run and RBI opportunities Dirks will receive batting second for the Tigers on a everyday basis. Runs and RBIs are neglected stats in fantasy baseball because they can be tough to predict and batting lineups are fickle. Still, we shouldn't ignore the increased run producing opportunities Dirks will receive over similarly skilled players who might be batting eighth or in less potent lineups.

Putting it all together I see Dirks as a sneakily valuable player, similar to what Melky Cabrera was on the Royals last year. He most likely won't put up as bountiful a line as Melky did, but when he currently isn't even listed as a top 40 outfielder in the AL, I see a player that is clearly undervalued.

Even in 12-team mixed leagues, Dirks is someone I would add as a fourth or fifth outfielder.

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How to be in first in Tout Wars

Paul Singman — 2012-05-08T08:02:15+00:00

Last month I debuted my inaugural Tout Wars team here to the painfully honest THT crowd, whose feedback consisted of more constructive criticisms than compliments. Admittedly the criticism was well deserved as during the draft I essentially made every rookie mistake in the book. I left money on the table, overspent on closers, and drafted two hitters on the DL and another that would be sent down the minors not long thereafter. My lineup had more holes to fill than a Mark Reynolds swing.

One month into the season, lo and behold, my team has outperformed the other fourteen and I'm currently perched fairly comfortably atop the standings. Sometimes it is better to be lucky good.

We see you, Josh. (US Presswire)

Setting luck aside, I've done some nifty patchwork to my roster along the way that has contributed to my current standing. Specifically my past purchases have been:

Week 1: Josh Reddick ($1), Brian Bogusevic ($2)
Week 2: Ryan Sweeney ($1)
Week 3: Andy Dirks ($1), Tony Campana ($2)
Week 4: Michael Saunders ($7), Anthony Bass ($10*)

Bogusevic was dropped following the first week, but Reddick has been a productive fixture in my lineup ever since. I have similar hopes for Dirks who, with a healthy hamstring and Brad Eldridge sent packing. can become an everyday player. Based on his .313/.327/.583 slash line he deserves the chance. The Campana campaign might have already peaked but his burst of seven steals in two weeks was fun.

Last week I splurged a little on Saunders, who I thought would be a popular bid given his 20 homer power potential—a rarity amongst waiver players. Apparently I was the only one since I could have bid just a single dollar and still have gotten him. Oh well, I have a large FAAB budget remaining compared to other teams since I've avoided the insane closer bidding (read: $26 for Hector Santiago).

Speaking of closers, unfortunately I gained one this week in Chris Sale. Before this news I was already short a starter (which is part of the reason I was willing to pay up to $25 for Bass, but only paid $10 because of the Vickrey system) and now I'm short once again relative to other teams. I would prefer to trade a closer for a starter immediately but if no good offer pops up, I am willing to roll closer-heavy for a few weeks and build upon my lead in saves.

This week's bids

I took a long look at all the starters I could add and decided against Philip Humber, Brian Matusz, and Jerome Williams. However I did throw a $1 bid at Jeanmar Gomez and, as of midnight, I see that I got him.

+-----+------------------+-------+
| POS | PLAYER           | PRICE |
+-----+------------------+-------+
| C   | J Saltalamacchia | $ 7   |
| C   | Nick Hundley     | $ 3   |
| 1B  | Lucas Duda       | $ 7   |
| 2B  | Jason Kipnis     | $ 7   |
| 3B  | Mike Moustakas   | $10   |
| SS  | Starlin Castro   | $25   |
| CI  | Brett Lawrie     | $28   |
| MI  | Mike Aviles      | $ 2   |
| OF  | Curtis Grandy    | $33   |
| OF  | Nick Swisher     | $11   |
| OF  | John Jay         | $ 0   |
| OF  | Josh Reddick     | $ 1   |
| OF  | Tony Campana     | $ 2   |
| UT  | Andy Dirks       | $ 1   |
+-----+------------------+-------+
| BN  | Jhonny Peralta   | $ 8   |
| BN  | Michael Saunders | $ 7   |
| DL  | Ryan Howard      | $ 7   |
| DL  | Carlos Quentin   | $ 1   |
+-----+------------------+-------+

Gomez doesn't strike many batters out, but he limits walks and generates ground balls at over a 50 percent rate, so he has that Trevor Cahill-type profile of someone who can post low ratios without gaudy strikeout numbers. His match-up against the White Sox and Jake Peavy is just alright this week, but next week he draws the Twins and Marlins, two match-ups I'll look forward to.

After that, who knows what'll become of Jeanmar and I.

As for hitters, I decided to stick with my current squad, though I'm not sure yet who I plan to start. I've got five spots for Reddick, Campana, Dirks, Saunders, Jon Jay, and Jhonny Peralta. I should probably bench one of Saunders or Campana but looking at match-ups, I have a hunch Reddick might be in for a rough week. I still haven't decided, and suggestions are always welcome.

That's all I'll say for now. I know reading about someone else's league can have the same entertainment value as sitting in a doctor's office, but I'm hoping the combination of some player analysis and me being in first can make this interesting enough.

Bottom line, if you'd be interested in hearing next Monday about the bids I and others place and how my team did, let me know. If not, let me know too.

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Have all closers gone crazy?

Paul Singman — 2012-04-30T09:04:15+00:00

The new face of ninth-inning trust. (US Presswire)

Between fragile tendons, managerial impatience, and the risk of food poisoning, times are tough for the current crop of major league closers. Of the thirty players drafted as closers in the preseason, depending on when your draft was, about seven of those pitchers are currently on the DL, a few for season-ending injuries.

Additionally, O's closer Jim Johnson was recently hospitalized for a few days with food poisoning, and Jordan Walden, owner of a WHIP north of 2.00, has been temporarily relieved of his duties.

Walden is not the only pitcher to have held a closer title with a WHIP over 2.00, though. Before hitting the DL, Sergio Santos and Brad Lidge both were allowing over two baserunners per inning. Heath Bell and Alfredo Aceves are currently over that mark. John Axford, Carlos Marmol, Hector Santiago, Frank Francisco, and Jose Valverde are all dangerously close.

If you drafted a closer in the preseason, there is about a 30 percent chance he is no longer closing, making 2012 look like it will be a tough one for fantasy owners where saves are concerned. Put another way, Chris Perez is pitching like Chris Perez, with a 1.50 WHIP and 4.50 ERA, and you don't hear any of his owners complaining. At least not yet.

Not all is bleak in the closer landscape, though. Some of the well-established closer brands, such as Mo and Paps, are living up to their reputation, and there have been a few pleasant surprises, too. Huston Street has managed to stay healthy in Petco's safe confines, and Joe Nathan has avoided becoming the human piñata some thought he would down in Arlington. Fernando Rodney and Henry Rodriguez have been successful as replacement closers.

It is important to keep in mind that we are one month into the season, and many of these pitchers have thrown fewer than ten innings total, so obvious small sample size caveats apply. If a pitcher can throw one scoreless inning and have his ERA drop almost a full point, you know it's too early to make strong judgments.

Now for a few closer notes you may find relevant:

— Grant Balfour is pitching his way into a trade with a contender with a 1.38 ERA and six saves in ten innings with a sufficient number of strikeouts. Brian Fuentes is probably next in line for saves, but he truly is not a closer-worthy pitcher these days. Fautino de los Santos was once considered the sleeper option in the A's bullpen, but he completed just three shaky innings before getting sent down to Triple-A.

Ryan Cook, a throw-in from the Trevor Cahill trade, has looked stellar this season, allowing just one hit in ten innings with eight strikeouts (four of which came in one inning). Those in deeper leagues can add him to their radar, and he soon will be worth stashing if he keeps it up.

— Another closer trade candidate is Brett Myers despite comments from the Astros GM denying such rumors. Either way, Wilton Lopez has pitched well this year and is someone else to keep an eye on.

— My favorite bullpen prospect, Shawn Tolleson, is currently making a comedy routine of Double-A batters, with 15 strikeouts in eight innings, no walks and no runs allowed. The Dodgers bullpen has been a legitimate entity this year with Javy Guerra holding down the ninth-inning job and Kenley Jansen and Josh Lindblom pitching well. I don't believe there is much fantasy relevance to Tolleson this year, but he's a fun name to watch at the very least.

Any relievers catch your eye this year? Feel free to share in the comments.

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Tout Mixed 2012: Team Singman

Paul Singman — 2012-03-30T05:43:15+00:00

First off, I just want to say "Hi" to all the readers. I know I've been quiet this offseason but I'm hoping this article will get me jump started again on a regular writing schedule. This past weekend I traveled into the City for my first year in the Tout Wars League. For those unfamiliar, Tout Wars and LABR are considered the two premier expert leagues in the country.

I'm not one to overstate the importance and level of competition of such leagues, though they are as competitive as any high-money league you'll come across. As a first year player, I was placed into the 15-team mixed league (participants generally "graduate" into the AL or NL-only leagues as spots open up). The format for the draft is a live auction, which put me at a bit of a disadvantage since I've never drafted in this manner before. The amount of info you are required to keep track of during a live auction is much greater compared to online, or even a live snake draft, so keeping up without letting it distract me and affect my bids was a new challenge.

Madison Bumgarner. (Icon/SMI)

This is not all an excuse for drafting a poor team. Overall I feel my team is not the best nor the worst, somewhere in the middle. Here is a link to a spreadsheet with all the teams and below is my team with the price I paid for each player.

+-----+------------------+-------+
| POS | PLAYER           | PRICE |
+-----+------------------+-------+
| C   | J Saltalamacchia | $ 7   |
| C   | Nick Hundley     | $ 3   |
| 1B  | Ryan Howard      | $ 7   |
| 2B  | Jason Kipnis     | $ 7   |
| 3B  | Brett Lawrie     | $28   |
| SS  | Starlin Castro   | $25   |
| CI  | Jhonny Peralta   | $ 8   |
| MI  | Mike Aviles      | $ 2   |
| OF  | Curtis Grandy    | $33   |
| OF  | Nick Swisher     | $11   |
| OF  | Lucas Duda       | $ 7   |
| OF  | Ben Revere       | $ 4   |
| OF  | Carlos Quentin   | $ 1   |
| UT  | Mike Moustakas   | $10   |
+-----+------------------+-------+
| P   | Cole Hamels      | $20   |
| P   | M Bumgarner      | $17   |
| P   | Brandon Beachy   | $13   |
| P   | Chris Sale       | $ 7   |
| P   | Lance Lynn       | $ 1   |
| P   | J.J. Putz        | $13   |
| P   | Carlos Marmol    | $10   |
| P   | Frank Francisco  | $ 6   |
| P   | Brett Myers      | $ 5   |
+-----+------------------+-------+
| BN  | Eric Thames      | RSV-1 |
| BN  | Andrew Cashner   | RSV-2 |
| BN  | Cliff Pennington | RSV-3 |
| BN  | John Jay         | RSV-4 |
+-----+------------------+-------+

Overall I stayed away from the big name hitters but came away with Curtis Granderson, Brett Lawrie, and Starlin Castro as my middle-lineup guys. Not a great core but with the extra cash I was able to get my targets later in the draft, like Lucas Duda and Jason Kipnis.

To compensate, I got two top pitchers: Cole Hamels and a very reasonably priced Madison Bumgarner for $17, probably my best purchase. Brandon Beachy and Chris Sale round out my rotation as two high-strikeout guys who solidify my staff as one of the best. I didn't spend for a top-tier closer but did come away with four so I should be competitive in saves.

Paying $7 for Salty was merely a function of me having extra cash at the end of the draft and not enough talent to spend it on. Ditto for the $10 Moustakas bid as well. Despite these overpays I still finished the draft with $16 left over, so clearly I did not spend as much as I could have earlier in the draft. With optimized budgeting my team could clearly have been better, but I still feel I managed to assemble a competitive roster.

What are your thoughts on my team? If you can, try to look at the other teams so you can a sense of how it compares.

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AL Waiver Wire: Week 22

Paul Singman — 2011-09-02T06:32:15+00:00

Derek Ambrosino (the first four entries) and Paul Singman fill in this week for for Josh Shepardson, who is updating THT's "Top 100" prospect list.

Mike Moustakas | Kansas City | 3B | 9 percent Yahoo ownership
YTD: .232/.284/.292
OLIVER ROS: .254/.296/.427

Wow! What is there to say about the disappointing hot corner prospect extraordinaire? In 250 at-bats, Moustakas hasn’t managed to slug Prince Fielder’s weight, collecting all of 13 extra base hits, and failing to homer in his last 245 ABS. Duane Kuiper, look out!

But things are actually looking up for Moustakas. He’s in the midst of a 14-game hitting streak, over which he’s popped six doubles, raising his batting average approximately 40 points and his OPS by about 80. Other good news is that his contact rate is not a major problem, as it often is for rookies who are touted as having power. Additionally, Moustakas is sitting a 38 percent flyball rate, and a HR/FB mark of under 2 percent. That simply is not going to last.

Even if Moustakas is not set to be the second coming of George Brett at third base in Kansas City, these numbers correcting themselves in the fashion of an average professional third-sacker would be a windfall for an owner looking for deep value if he had Moustakas when the pendulum swings the other way.

Totally anecdotally, and as a Mets fan, the type of struggles Moustakas is having reminded me of Lucas Duda. A big and powerful young hitter, Duda saw nothing go his way in his first taste of the Show, but his failure was so astounding that it was simply unsustainable. Duda finally got some breaks and got hot at the very end of last season, and now actually strikes me as an intriguing young hitter with a potentially bright future.

Recommendation: Should be owned in AL-only leagues. Should be considered in larger, mixed formats as a replacement for an injured player, or bench depth.

Eric Thames | Toronto | OF | 5 percent Yahoo ownership
YTD: .281/.324/.487
OLIVER ROS: .267/.327/.455

Eric Thames gets regular at bats in a perfectly adequate lineup and is sporting an OPS of .811 over about a half season’s worth of at-bats. If you double his numbers to get him to 140 games, he’d be offering 86 runs, 20 homers, and 60 RBI. Does this sound like a player who should be owned in a mere 5 percent of Yahoo! leagues?

I’m going to keep this one short and sweet; there are probably several players on the current rosters in your fantasy league, many of whom are getting regular fantasy reps, over whom Thames’ production would be a clear and immediate improvement. It doesn’t really make a whole lot of sense for the player who is penciled into his team’s lineup card right ahead of Jose Bautista to be unowned in 95 percent of leagues.

Recommendation: Should be considered in standard mixed league formats and owned in all AL-only leagues.

David Robertson | New York | RP | 19 percent Yahoo ownership
YTD: 1.35 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 13.7 K/9, 4.9 BB/9
OLIVER ROS: 3.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 10.1 K/9

Reliever wins are unpredictable. Owners don’t have enough room on their rosters to load up on players who skew your likelihood of getting at least one big source of middle relief wins. I issue this preamble because the only reason David Robertson’s ownership is current number is because he has only three wins. If he had six or seven, it would be due to nothing but randomness and minimally predictive of his ability to continue to accrue wins at a similar rate, but it would boost his ranking and cause plenty more owners to own him.

But those no-earned run, two strikeout innings add up over time. Owning elite middle relievers is like saving your quarters over the course of a year: You don’t think much of it at the time, but at the end of the year you’re staring at a couple hundred bucks. Robertson is a great asset for teams whose starting staff is a bit light on the K-power.

Recommendation: Should be owned in standard mixed leagues and beyond

Brandon McCarthy | Oakland | SP | 21 percent Yahoo ownership
YTD: 3.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 1.5 BB/9
OLIVER ROS: 3.78 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 5.8 K/9

McCarthy is a competent major league pitcher with an impressive minor league record and a bit of upside. The 2011 season represents the first time he’s been in a relaxed and pitcher-friendly situation and he is showing us some of what made many scouts perk up and notice. Fantasy-wise, McCarthy pitches for a team that plays in a very weak offensive division and in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. In the minors, McCarthy flashed both excellent control and plus punch-out ability. Thus far in the bigs, he has demonstrated his exceptional control, but pedestrian K numbers. However, he has shown glimpses of an ability to elevate his strikeouts a bit, and a little improvement in that area is all is needed to move McCarthy to a shallow league rotation guy.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all mixed leagues with more than 12 teams.

Coke would have made a great truck driver if pitching didn't get in the way. (Icon/SMI)

Phil Coke | Detroit | SP/RP | 3 percent Yahoo ownership
YTD: 4.28 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 5.61 K/9, 1.75 K/BB
OLIVER ROS: 4.03 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 5.5 K/9

The Tigers' experiment with Coke in the rotation earlier in the season was a clear failure, producing an ugly 4.82 ERA. In July, a transition to the bullpen didn't work either, but Coke persevered and finally all his hard work paid off in August. In 12 August innings he struck out 20 batters, allowed 10 baserunners, and nary a runner crossed the plate. Yesterday, in his first September appearance, Coke coughed up three runs. Assuming last night's events are not a precursor for the rest of September, Coke is a potentially valuable reliever to own down the stretch with starting pitcher eligibilty, important for leagues that distinguish between starters and relievers.

Recommendation: Can be owned in any league with a limited number of relief spots or in deep AL-only leagues.

Dayan Viciedo | Chicago | 3B | 12 percent Yahoo ownership
YTD (AAA): .296/.364/.489
YTD (Majors): .538 (7-for-13), 1 HR, 1 SB
OLIVER ROS: .268/.310/.432

Earlier in the summer there was much anticipation surrounding a Viciedo call-up because of the blech the White Sox were using at third base and his solid Triple-A numbers, but for whatever reason he remained in the minors. Finally after a lot of people forgot about him, Viciedo was called up five days ago. In the four games since he's been on a tea,r batting over .500 with a homer and steal. Viciedo should continue to find his way into the lineup all over the field (meaning outfield and maybe first base eligibility soon) and keep producing.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Cliff Pennington | Oakland | SS | 13 percent Yahoo ownership
YTD: .266/.322/.365
OLIVER ROS: .261/.315/.371

Coming into this year Pennington was a popular shortstop flier because he stole 30 bases the year prior without laying waste to your average. By June, though, hopes of him as a fantasy-relevant player were lost when he wasn't doing much hitting or stealing many bases. Since the All-Star break however, Pennington has been a different player. He's batted .331 since the break and over the past week has swiped four bags. Particularly at shortstop, I think he can be a valuable player down the stretch.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues 14 teams and deeper. Can and probably should simply be universally owned.

Lookin' good, Alfredo. (Icon/SMI)

Alfredo Aceves | Boston | SP/RP | 11 percent Yahoo ownership
YTD: 2.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 6.07 K/9, 1.88 K/BB
OLIVER ROS: 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 5.5 K/9

At first glance it may appear like Aceves is in line for a major regression to his high-twos ERA given his mediocre strikeout rate and .229 BABIP. Looking at his monthly splits, though, reveals that lately his pitching has been worthy of such a mark. Over the month of August Aceves achieved a 1.79 FIP while striking out more than a batter an inning. Interestingly, Aceves credits his success to the Red Sox nutrionist, which either means this nutrionist is world-class or that Aceves just wasn't too great to being with.

While I'm not necessarily endorsing Aceves for anything long-term, he could be a sneakily valuable reliever in Septembe,r picking up the occasional win, as he has nine times already, and also by working more an inning at a time, unlike typical setup men owned in fantasy. As with Coke, Aceves also has that desirable SP eligibility (and he also allowed two runs to score last night).

Recommendation: Can be owned in any league where his skill set could be useful.

David Murphy | Texas | OF | 17 percent Yahoo Ownership
YTD: .251/.317/.352
OLIVER ROS: .271/.330/.416

Nelson Cruz is out for a couple of weeks with a hamstring strain, so David Murphy should get fairly regular playing time for a few weeks. Murphy is an all-around guy who contributes everywhere but doesn't excel in any one dimension. In deeper leagues he should make for a good fourth or fifth outfielder. If you are desperately looking for speed, Leonys Martin might be the better add of the two Rangers outfielder

Recommendation: Should be owned in AL-only and 16-team mixed leagues or deeper. Can be owned in most 14-team and some 12-team leagues.

Mike Trout | Angels | OF | 16 percent Yahoo ownership
YTD (AA): .326/.414/.544
YTD (Majors): .250/.307/.515
OLIVER ROS: .277/.335/.429

The 20 year old phenom is back in the bigs and making more of an impact this time with four homers in just eight games. This kid is gonna be a superstar; it is only a matter of when. He obviously won't realize his full potential this September, but I think he will be a productive fantasy player with regular playing time.

Trout has not stolen many bases in the majors, but people seem to overlook his 45 steals in 2010 and 33 in Double-A this year. If he wasn't the No. 1 prospect, people wouldn't worry about his hitting stats so much and advise adding him just for speed. Well, Trout offers a lot more than just a pair of legs and I wouldn't pass up the opportunity to own him, even if just for a month.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

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Predicted 2012 closers - NL (Part 1)

Paul Singman — 2011-09-01T10:10:15+00:00

Below is my best guess as to who will be pitching the ninth inning for National league teams next season. I decided 16 teams was too much for one week, so I broke it up into two pieces. The first eight NL teams are contained here, with the final eight to come next week. As always, if you feel you know something I don't or just want to highlight something, share it in the comments.

Astros — Mark Melancon — The Astros don't have much going for them in the present, so it would be a move of the shocking variety if they spent money on bullpen help this offseason. With that said, Melancon has not done great, but well enough to make me think he'll remain the closer come next spring. Wilton Lopez may be the better pitcher of the two, but he should stay a setup man unless Melancon falters.

Braves — Craig Kimbrel — Emerging as perhaps the No. 1 closer in the majors this season, Kimbrel leaves little up to chance with a 14.6 K/9. That's 40 percent of the time it wouldn't matter if Rosie O'Donnell or Mark Reynolds were in the field.

Kimbrel does not possess the best control (3.53 BB/9) but limits hits so well, in particular home runs—in fact in his entire 235-inning major and minor league combined career he has allowed a mere five home runs—that ninth-inning rallies are a minor miracle off of him. His contemporaneous setup man, Jonny Venters, is also one of the best, but he will have to be satisfied atop the holds, rather than saves, leaderboard.

I couldn't pass up the opportunity to showcase Axford's exquisite mustache...errr... goatee setup. (Icon/SMI)

Brewers — John Axford — The unlikely savior in the wake of the 2010 Trevor Hoffman meltdown, Axford has impressed everyone and maybe even himself with his strong repeat performance this year. He currently is tied with Kimbrel for the most saves with 40 and has a mere two blown saves to his name.

Although 28 years old, he was a late bloomer and will continue to make near league-minimum, meaning Axford is under contract for at least the next few years. If Francisco Rodriguez leaves town, the Brewers likely will sign a solid reliever this offseason, but that player will come to Milwaukee to set up for Axford and not the other way around.

Cardinals — Jason Motte — The Cardinals have had a circus of a bullpen this year, putting on an act that started with Ryan Franklin falling from a tightrope through a ring of fire and onto his family-room couch.

Mitchell Boggs, Eduardo Sanchez, Fernando Salas, and now Motte each have had time in the spotlight, with Salas proving himself a worthy closer and Motte—complete with the requisite 96 MPH heater and beard—showing great improvement over the past month.

The Cards' offseason strategy will revolve around the massive question that is what will Albert Pujols do, and with enough in-house options to fill a small house, I don't think they will look for much outside help. I listed Motte as the closer for next year, though the palindromatic Salas is just as likely a candidate.

Cubs — Carlos Marmol — Marmol has had a much less electrifying year than his 138 strikeout campaign in 2010. He also has been fairly ineffective, with a 3.82 ERA and eight blown saves. Still, the Cubs extended Marmol through 2013 in the offseason for one reason—to make the ninth inning exciting for an otherwise unexciting ballclub. If Marmol implodes or get injured, the untouchable Sean Marshall is certainly capable of filling the role.

D-backs — J.J. Putz — The D-backs turned one of ugliest bullpens of 2010 into one of the most trustworthy, largely through the signing of Putz this offseason. The former Seattle star appears to have found a new permanent home in Arizona, having converted 33 of 37 save chances with a shiny 2.70 ERA. As we saw in early July, if Putz gets injured, David Hernandez is the man to own.

Dodgers — Kenley Jansen — Javy Guerra is currently the Dodgers closer and pitching well after making the jump from Double-A to the majors in May. Unlike his predecessors, he's closed out games with relative ease, converting 11 of 12 opportunities.

I am skeptical, however, that he will be the closer long-term. In the minors he periodically struggled with control, so I wouldn't be surprised to see his current 2.5 BB/9 rate rise into the threes or maybe even the low fours at some point next season. Couple that with his less-than-stellar 7.4 K/9 rate, and I see a pitcher prone to stringing together blown saves with a little bit o' bad luck.

Now enter Jansen, a pitcher capable of streaks of spectacular dominance who also suffers from wildness at times. He's thrown 18 innings since June and hasn't given up a run in any of them. He also came off the DL recently for one of the more concerning injuries for a stressful job like closer, an irregular heartbeat. That's an injury you can never be sure a player is completely past, but if Jansen's heart issues are behind him, I believe it will be sooner rather than later he regains his closer's role.

Giants — Brian Wilson — Wilson is under contract for another season, and the Giants will certainly keep him the closer out of fear of what he would do if he were removed. After an impressive two seasons, Wilson has definitely taken a step back this year, walking 5.2 batters per nine.

I'm sure his elbow soreness has a good deal to do with that, and if healthy next year, I'd expect him to pitch more like his 2009 and 2010 seasons. If not, Sergio Romo is a machine in the eighth inning, and with a similar beard, I'm sure many people wouldn't even know the difference if they switched roles.

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Predicted 2012 closers - AL

Paul Singman — 2011-08-09T13:21:15+00:00

Below is my best guess as to who will be pitching the ninth for American league teams next season. Some teams—like the Yankees—were easy to predict and for others—like the Jays, Mariners, and Twins—it was difficult, so it is more important to read the blurb that follows rather than just the one name I listed. Feel free to share any insight I failed to mention in the comments for the greater good. National League will come next week.

One of the more awkward post-save celebrations courtesy of Walden. (Icon/SMI)

Angels — Jordan Walden — Walden has been effective in his first year as closer, though has a surprising number of blown saves, seven, for his 2.80 ERA. That is most likely just poor timing rather than a flaw in Walden, but it is a small red flag. He's under team control for five more years so he isn't going anywhere soon.

Athletics — Andrew Bailey — When healthy Bailey is an elite closer but he has often struggled with his health, landing on the DL three times in the past two years with throwing arm injuries. He will be arbitration eligible for the first time and the A's are likely to keep their Jersey-bred flamethrower. In the event of a serious injury or an unexpected trade the A's have Grant Balfour under contract for another year, plus a club option for 2013. Fautino De Los Santos, who possesses the typical closer makeup, could also find himself in a closer's role somehow if he improves his control.

Blue Jays — Frank Francisco — The Jays have one of the messiest bullpens in all the baseball land so there were multiple names I could have chosen here. Remember the Jays gave up Mike Napoli to get Francisco so I am skeptical they will let him walk after a down year in which he maintained solid peripherals. Still there is a club option on Rauch that could be picked up, a Casey Jannsen that has closer potential, and countless potential in-house and free agent options. I don't see the Jays throwing one of the youngsters the responsibility of closing to start the season so Francisco makes a nice potential bridge to one of them, most notably Joel Carreno or Danny Farquhar.

Indians — Vinnie Pestano — The horrible 26/20 strikeout-to-walk ratio of Chris Perez is starting to catch up to him and he's allowed eight runs in his last ten appearances with two blown saves. The Indians are clearly in win-now mode with the acquisition of Ubaldo Jimenez so I believe they will skip the niceties and let Vinnie Pestano try his hand at closer, if not this year, then sometime early in 2012. Tony Sipp is also a potential saves candidate, despite his left-handedness.

Mariners — Brandon League — League was retained at the trade deadline so he's either in the Mariner's plans for next year or the right offer just did not come along. League has pitched well enough to deserve a closer's role but the M's might not want to spend around five million on a bullpen arm. It is also difficult to know their front office's plan for David Aardsma and free agents this offseason. Maybe they will sign Jonathan Broxton, who knows.

Orioles — Kevin Gregg — Gregg has somehow performed adequately as the closer this year despite a WHIP on the wrong side of the 1.50 mark. He is under contract for $6 million to continue increasing the number of heart failures in the greater Baltimore area with dramatic bases-loaded jams next season. When Gregg becomes unbearable sometime next season, Jim Johnson seems perfectly capable of handling the job with less sweat.

Rangers — Mike Adams — Neftali Feliz has struggled to say the least in the closer's role this season with plently of walks and blown saves and not too many strikeouts. With Adams brought in at the deadline, I expect the Rangers to make the still young Feliz a starter next year, for real this time.

Looks like someone taught Gregg chin-and-chest to the plate...especially chest. (Icon/SMI)

Rays — Kyle Farnsworth — The Rays have a club option on Kyle Farnsworth and I see no reason for that not to get exercised. He's exceeded all expectations and looks much better than Jake McGee.

Red Sox — Jonathan Papelbon — The lastest I've read indicates the most likely place Papelbon goes is nowhere in his first year of free agency. Papelbon has shown his best this year but not many teams are looking to overspend on a closer this offseason and Boston can afford to make its fanbase happy by retaining him. Daniel Bard will keep his role as Robin if Paps stays, though he is the obvious replacement if Papelbon does manage to leave the town.

Royals — Joakim Soria — There are grumblings of Soria joining Aaron Crow in moving from the bullpen to the rotation in 2012, but those are mere grumblings. Still, Kansas City all of sudden has one of the most exciting young bullpens with Louis Coleman and Greg Holland having Kimbrel-and-Venters-esque rookie years. Either of those two arms seems capable of handling the ninth so maybe, just maybe Dayton Moore will finally decide to try something bold and put Soria in the rotation.

Tigers — Jose Valverde — Valverde has been "perfect" this season in terms of converting saves with 32 out of 32 converted this season. Regardless there is much controversy surrounding his nine million dollar club option that may or may not be optioned. My guess is it will be picked up despite Valverde's 34 years of age and increasing showing of it with a declining strikeout and ever-increasing walk rate that now sits at 4.74 BB/9. If it isn't, Joaquin Benoit or Al Alburquerque will look to step into Valverde's shoes.

Twins — Joe Nathan — Nathan's 12.5 million dollar option won't be exercised but Nathan likes Minnesota and will probably re-sign with the Twins for less money. From there Nathan could keep the closer role, Glen Perkins could get a shot, or the Twins could sign someone from outside the organization. Jim Hoey is the in-house option to keep an eye on.

White Sox — Sergio Santos — Santos has managed to earn some respect from Ozzie Guillen by pitching brilliantly in his second year in the majors. Expect the White Sox bullpen situation to be much less complicated than it was at the beginning of this season with Santos as the clear-cut closer.

Yankees — Mariano Rivera — Mariano will be 42 years old in 2012 but there's no sign of aging in his stats. So far this year he's been as good as ever and short of a certain Mayan prediction bearing true, 2012 figures to be more of the same. I've actually met Mariano and shook his hand and I swear it felt human, but every year I can't help but wonder.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the details on player contracts.

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