The Hardball Times -- Richard Barbieri

The Hardball Times -- Richard Barbieri http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2012 2012-02-10T11:32:15+00:00 The all-month team: February http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-all-month-team-february/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-all-month-team-february/#When:09:42:15
Before we begin this month’s list—which I am curious to see, given February’s status as the shortest month—a quick review of the ground rules: each player’s date of birth is as listed on his Baseball-Reference.com page and the player must have played at least 50 percent of his games at a position to qualify for the spot. And—most importantly of all—I reserve the right to realize I made a terrible mistake and change the team up to next December when we compare.

Having gotten that out of the way, let’s begin:

Catcher: Elston Howard

Generally speaking, I use Baseball-Reference’s WAR to pick each of these positions, though I am not necessarily wedded to it. In this case, for example, Elston Howard is technically second in WAR by a February catcher to Smoky Burgess. Burgess was a fine player—he would be a fine choice behind the plate—but never reached Howard’s heights in peak value. Moreover, Burgess spent much of his career as a pinch hitter, never catching more than 113 games in a season.

Also of note: By the end of his career, this spot might belong to Brian McCann. The Braves’ catcher seems unlikely to ever match Howard’s peak, but having started as a regular at 22, could accumulate enough value to overwhelm that advantage.

First Base: Eddie Murray

Conversely, there was no question for picking Eddie Murray at the first base spot. In addition to his substantial lead in WAR over second-place Wally Pipp, Murray is undoubtedly an all-time great. Playing primarily for the Orioles, the switch-hitter finished his career with more than 500 home runs and placed fifth or higher in the MVP voting every year from 1981 through to 1985.

His time in NY was not the best, but no one can question Roberto Alomar's greatness (Icon/SMI)

Second Base: Roberto Alomar

Every month seems to have a position where there is a wealth of good choices. For February, that position is second base. In addition to Alomar—about whom more in a moment—the Groundhogs (what else would a February team be called?) could turn to Hall of Famer Joe Gordon or Hall of Famer Red Schoendienst.

Despite those names, Alomar is an easy choice. The switch-hitting second generation player was a 12-time All-Star, 10-time Gold Glove winner at second (no one has more) and four-time Silver Slugger award winner.

Third Base: Ron Santo

Finally elected—a year too late to see it, shamefully—to the Hall of Fame this past December, Ron Santo is one of the 10 best third basemen who ever lived. Santo’s skills, including leading the National League in walks four times and finishing in the top five eight times, were severely underappreciated in their time but will be on Team February.

Shortstop: Honus Wagner

There have been some tremendous shortstops in baseball history: Hall of Famers like Cal Ripken, Arky Vaughn and recent electee Barry Larkin. They go along, of course, with recent and still active greats like Alan Trammell (a February birth himself) and Derek Jeter. But Honus Wagner stands alone as the greatest. The Flying Dutchman—an outstanding nickname, incidentally—remained a dominant offensive force while playing short through age 38 and his performance in the years before that was simply outstanding. If, as the saying goes, great teams are built up the middle, February is in good shape with their double-play combination.

Left Field: Monte Irvin

Monte Irvin did not debut in the Major Leagues until age 30 and because of this played fewer than 775 games. This holds his career numbers down considerably; he has fewer than 750 hits, 500 RBI and 100 home runs. He earns the spot on the all-February team, ahead of players with better career numbers like Chick Hafey and Rondell White because Irvin’s debut at age 30 came in 1949, nearly as soon as he could if not for baseball’s segregation policy.

Irvin—who made five Negro League All-Star teams and hit a reported .358 over his Negro League career—was clearly ready for the Majors long before ’49, and any reasonable person would have to award him credit for that time.

Center Field: Cesar Cedeno

On the subject of players, like Santo, who are underappreciated, we come to Cesar Cedeno. Cedeno was the victim of his home park, one which made his actual performance appear far less than it was. At age 21, for example, in 1972, Cedeno put up a total line of .320/.385/.537 in Houston’s Astrodome. He finished sixth in the MVP voting. The third place finisher was Pittsburgh’s Willie Stargell, who hit .293/.373/.558 at Three Rivers Stadium.

In raw terms, Cedeno’s OPS was nine points lower. If one adjusts for their home parks, however, and puts Stargell into the Astrodome his line drops to .291/.371/.551, identical OPS to Cedeno with a batting average nearly 30 points less.

Right Field: Hank Aaron

What is there to say about Aaron that you don’t already know? Outside of Barry Bonds, no one has ever hit more home runs. (And inside of Barry Bonds, as Groucho Marx almost said, it is too dark to hit home runs.) If not for Babe Ruth, Hammerin’ Hank could lay claim to being the best right fielder of all-time. For this team though, he and Wagner form a tremendous one-two punch, the best seen on any month team thus far.

Just Verlander, climbing the list of February greats (Icon/SMI)

Starting Pitchers: Pete Alexander, Wilbur Cooper, Wes Ferrell, Herb Pennock, Justin Verlander

Yikes, that is some drop from staff ace down to the rest of the staff. Of course, when one is discussing a pitcher as great as Alexander—who is arguably a top five starter of all-time—there will be inevitably be a slump in quality. None of which is speak ill of Wilbur Cooper and his cohorts. For his part, Cooper won 216 games pitching primarily for the Pirates in the teens and early ‘20s. Wes Ferrell could not match that total for victories; he won 193 over his career, but made up substantial value with his bat: he was a lifetime .280 hitter and was a greater than two WAR player with the bat alone in 1935.

Herb Pennock is actually second all-time in February wins, behind Alexander. Most of Pennock’s 241 wins came after age 30. Already 29, and owner of a 77-72 lifetime record, the Knight of Kennett Square was traded to the Yankees in 1923 and proceeded to go 164-90 for the rest of his career.

Verlander is a bit of an unusual choice. Though several February pitchers had better careers, a peak does count for something and Verlander’s last three years (averaging 238 IP with a 140 ERA+) are pretty impressive. Moreover, Verlander is still on the “right” side of 30, and while pitchers are always dangerous to predict, it seems a strong bet that by the time his career is over, this spot will be his without question.

Relief Pitcher: Dan Quisenberry

These days, I suspect Quisenberry is remembered as much for his wit (I found a delivery in my flaw…Natural grass is a wonderful thing for little bugs and sinkerball pitchers, etc.) and his tragic early death at age 45, as he is for his pitching. That’s too bad. At his absolute best, “Quiz” was a masterful reliever in what might be roughly called the Mariano Rivera Model of Relief Pitching: force the other guys to beat you. That is, no walks, no home runs, make them string together a bunch of hits to beat you. That earned him his place on the February team.

(The other way to do it is what might be called the Billy Wagner Model of Relief Pitching: giving up the occasion—or more than occasional—walk or home run, but covering your sins with a huge number of strikeouts.)

Manager: Pat Moran

February, if we’re being honest, is a little shallow in the managerial department. Nonetheless, one could do far worse than Pat Moran. Moran’s greatest gift was apparently his leadership in his first season. First taking over the Phillies in 1915, who finished 74-80 the year before, Moran led them to a 90-62 record and the National League pennant. The Phillies would finish second the next two years, before Moran lost his job after a 55-68 year in 1918.

Taking over the Cincinnati Reds the next season, Moran again led a turnaround, taking the Reds, who finished 68-60 the year prior, to a 96-44 record and a trip to the World Series. The Reds’ victory in that World Series, is, of course, somewhat tainted by the “Black Sox” scandal, but Moran nonetheless led his team to victory.

For his career, Moran finished with 748 wins and a .561 winning percentage—the latter number higher than that of names like Bobby Cox, Miller Huggins and Sparky Anderson.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Richard Barbieri 2012-02-02T09:42:15+00:00 On Edgar Martinez http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/on-edgar-martinez/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/on-edgar-martinez/#When:09:15:15 Edgar Martinez set a new high in his percentage for the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately, for Martinez, that percentage was barely more than a third of eligible voters. While usually such predictions are left to our Nostradamus of the Hall of Fame ballot, Chris Jaffe, it seems a safe bet that, though Martinez will spend the full 15 years on the Hall of Fame ballot, his chance of being elected is relatively low.

And if it were up to me, that’s just the way it should be. Though Martinez has his adamant supporters—his Baseball-Reference page is sponsored by a fan linking to an article by ESPN’s David Schoenfield in favor of Martinez’ case—I remain largely unimpressed.

Before we get into the reasons I don’t believe Martinez belongs in the Hall of Fame, it is only fair I point out that were he to earn election, he would hardly be the worse choice. The list of players worse than Martinez in the Hall is not a short one and includes names like Lou Brock, Ross Youngs and everyone’s favorite recent inductee Jim Rice.

Having said that, there are three reasons I believe Martinez does not belong in the Hall. These are presented in no particular order, although I’m saving the most subjective—and by extension, probably most debatable—point for last.

(1) He Didn’t Play Enough

This was part of the comment I made explaining why I did not support Edgar in the THT Hall of Fame vote. It was not until Martinez was 27 that he received 500 at-bats in a season. It is almost indisputable that Martinez should have been playing long before that. In 1987, coming off a year when he put up a .329/.434/.473 line at Triple-A Calgary, Martinez earned a September call-up with the Mariners. In just under 50 plate appearances, Martinez hit .372 and slugged .581 for a mediocre (78-84) Seattle team.

Like Edgar Martinez, David Ortiz does not spend enough time doing this (Icon/SMI)

Instead of giving their obviously ready young hitter a chance, in 1988 the Mariners stuck with the dreadful Jim Presley who hit .230 and posted a .635 OPS—worse than all but fourteen batting title qualifiers that year. In a related story, the Mariners went 68-93. Meanwhile, Martinez proved he had nothing else to learn at Triple-A, hitting .363 with a .983 OPS, putting the power into the Calgary Cannons.

The Mariners still didn’t learn from this as it was not until 1990—at age 27, as I mentioned before—that Martinez finally earned a full-time job. Unfortunately for Martinez, though he would be a regular when healthy for the rest of his career, health issues (and later interleague play) limited his action. Martinez played until he was 41 but still only had 10 seasons of 550 or more plate appearances.

For his career, he only came up to the plate 8,672 times. Had the Mariners given Martinez a job when he deserved one—likely before the ’87 season—and he had the benefit of better health, that might be enough to push him over the top of Hall of Fame worthiness.

(2) His Best Wasn’t Quite Great Enough

There’s no denying that at his best Martinez was a tremendous hitter. In 1995, he won the American League batting title, while also leading in good measure in runs, doubles, and slugging percentage. Just to prove this was no fluke of the hitter-friendly Kingdome, Martinez led the league in OPS+ by six points over Frank Thomas. Further cementing his legend, Martinez terrorized the Yankees—and by extension, my 11-year old self—in the ALDS putting up a ridiculous .571/.667/1.000 line which included the series-winning double.

Despite this, Martinez simply does not have the numbers to support his induction. As someone whose Hall of Fame has to be defined entirely by offensive production—and despite playing in a strong hitters ballpark for much of his career—Martinez’ ranks in offensive statistics are underwhelming. In the “Black Ink Test,” which rewards a player for leading his league in meaningful statistics, Martinez accumulated fewer points in his entire career than names like Ryan Howard and Don Mattingly. As great as Martinez could be, he was never quite as dominating a hitter as people sometimes remember.

(3) Being a DH is Easy

As mentioned earlier, this one is subjective. Nonetheless, I think it is a major part of why Martinez does not belong in the Hall of Fame. For his career, Martinez played less than 600 games in the field. After suffering an injury—something of a fluke owing to a temporary field at Vancouver’s BC Place stadium—before the 1993 season, Martinez was essentially finished as a defensive player. Martinez’ last season of more than 100 defensive games was in 1992, and by the time the strike was resolved prior to the 1995 season it was clear that Martinez’ days as anything but a DH were essentially over. (And indeed, from 1995 until he retired, he played well under 50 games in the field.)

This means that from 1995 on, Martinez had all the benefits that being a DH has. He could train in the off-season able to focus entirely on hitting, with no concerns for his defense. Martinez never had to come to the plate after spending a day in the field in roasting August heat or freezing April sleet. A DH never has to bat having just endured a rough slide on a double play, nor had the wind knocked out of him diving for a ball in the outfield.

Most statistical measures attempt to account for a DH in some manner, usually centered on penalizing them for their defense—or lack thereof. This is something which obviously needs to be accounted for, but I remain convinced that the standard for a full-time DH needs to be set tremendously high when you consider the multitude of inherent advantages.

As I said at the outset, while Martinez would hardly be the worst choice for the Hall of Fame—I’d still rather see him in than Jack Morris—I would not be giving him my vote, a view it appears I share with the majority of the Hall’s voters.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Richard Barbieri 2012-01-19T09:15:15+00:00 The all-month team: January http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-all-month-team-january/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-all-month-team-january/#When:09:13:15
Before we begin this month’s list, a quick review of the ground rules: each player’s date of birth is as listed on their Baseball-Reference.com page and the player must have played at least 50 percent of his games at a position to qualify for the spot. And—most importantly of all—I reserve the right to realize I made a terrible mistake and change the team up to next December when we compare.

Having gotten that out of the way, let’s begin:

Catcher: Darrell Porter

The all-December team, you might remember, featured an embarrassment of riches at catcher with the likes of Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, Josh Gibson and Gabby Hartnett all born in December. January is not so lucky. Darrell Porter is no slouch—he would back-up Ted Simmons on the all-underrated team—but he’s obviously not at the level of the likes of Bench or Gibson. Meanwhile, behind Porter the talent is underwhelming with names like Walker Cooper and Mike Lieberthal in the top five all-time.

First Base: Albert Pujols

On the other hand, while first base was a relative weak spot for team December, it is an abundance for January. Besides Pujols—obviously a Hall of Famer when the time comes—January could also choose from Hall of Famer Johnny Mize or Hall of Famer Willie McCovey or Hall of Famer Hank Greenberg. Even the fifth best first baseman on the January list, Jason Giambi, is better than what December had to offer.

Erstwhile Cardinal teammates Pujols and Holliday, reunited for their month (Icon/SMI)

Second Base: Jackie Robinson

There is, let’s face it, very little (and maybe nothing) I can say about Jackie Robinson that hasn’t already been said. So I will instead take this time to focus on the man Robinson beat out for second base on the all-January team: Bobby Grich. Grich had the misfortune of being a player whose best skills—getting on base, in particular—were underappreciated in their time. Even more so for a man like Grich, who had a lifetime OBP of .371 while playing second base at a Gold Glove level. His falling off the Hall of Fame ballot after just one year remains one of the worst—and maybe the worst—examples of voting in recent memory.

Third Base: Bill Madlock

Only nine players—with names like Cobb, Gwynn, Wagner and Musial—have ever won more batting titles than the four Madlock won over the course of his 15-year career. He had other skills (from 1979 through 1982 he stole 84 bases in 117 chances) and could handle third base defensively, but was criticized for being focused on the batting title even at the cost of hurting his team. Bill James, for example, cites a story that reporters would take bets in the press box on the days when Madlock would claim injury to remove himself from the line-up in order to protect his average.

Shortstop: Art Fletcher

It’s hard to imagine double-play partners with a greater difference in the public consciousness than Robinson and Fletcher. Fletcher spent all but the tail end of his career with the Giants, manning shortstop for John McGraw. During Fletcher’s time, the Giants won four pennants, though they lost in the World Series all four times. For his part, Fletcher was a strong contributor posting six seasons of 4 WAR or better. His greatest skill as a ballplayer—offensively, at least—lay in taking one for the team: Fletcher led the league in HBP five times and still ranks just outside of the top 25 all-time.

Left Field: Matt Holliday

Pujols and Holliday may no longer be teammates in reality, but they remain so here on the all-January team. Left is a competitive position on the team, January birthday boy Kevin Mitchell actually played most of his career games here, though the team would probably prefer to exploit his versatility—he played 25 or more games at both outfield corners, third base and even shortstop. (This is the source of Mitchell’s otherwise baffling “World” nickname.)

Center Field: Max Carey

Carey is one of those guys—there’s a fair number of them on his team, actually—who nobody except real baseball history devotees have heard of, despite being pretty fair players. A speedy centerfielder, Carey led the league in steals 10 times, and at the time of his retirement only Ty Cobb and Eddie Collins had nabbed more. Carey is currently ninth all-time and is arguably the greatest base stealer in NL history. Not surprisingly, he was a strong defensive player (to the extent he was nicknamed “Scoops”) and earned himself induction to Cooperstown—via the Veterans Committee—in 1976.

Right Field: Elmer Flick

Speaking of pretty good players who are largely forgotten, here we come to Elmer Flick. In addition to his frankly hilarious name, Flick was a power-hitting outfielder whose bat covered his defensive shortcomings before going to pieces at a relatively young age. Those defensive shortcomings were no small thing; in 1899 Flick’s teammate Nap Lajoie was instructed to make a full effort on all balls in shallow right field. This displeased Flick so much that the next season the two apparently got into a fistfight over who owned a bat, which ended with Lajoie missing Flick with a punch but connecting with the wall and breaking his thumb.

For his part, Flick developed stomach problems in 1907 and was never the same player again. To age 31, he earned more WAR than men like Frank Thomas, Roberto Alomar and Sam Crawford. But his career was essentially over—he played less than 100 total games the next three seasons before leaving the majors for good.

All-January Manager Davey Johnson (Icon/SMI)

Starting Rotation: Nolan Ryan, David Cone, Early Wynn, Dizzy Dean, Jon Matlack

Ryan has done a pretty good job running the Texas Rangers the past couple of years, but there can be little doubt that given only one role in the team, “The Ryan Express” should be a pitcher. The pitchers behind Ryan are an interesting bunch. Cone was a masterful pitcher who finished with an ERA of three or below five times, no small feat for a pitcher in modern times. Ryan and Wynn have much in common; both were workhorses who hung on as effective pitchers for years, with Wynn posting an All-Star season at age 40. Meanwhile, at his peak, Dean might be the best pitcher of the bunch. From 1934 through 1936 he averaged an astounding 317 IP and 27 wins. Despite a short career, he led the league in strikeouts four times. Matlack does not have the resume to compare to his rotation mates, but did win the 1972 Rookie of the Year award and twice led the National League in shutouts.

Closer: Bruce Sutter

To some extent, this pick is a matter of taste. One could just as easily choose Francisco Rodriguez for this spot—and it seems likely that by the time his career is over K-Rod will have more accumulated value than Sutter. On the other hand, Sutter is in the Hall of Fame (though probably not deservedly) and was the kind of fireman who threw inning totals in individual seasons that Rodriguez has never approached. If you prefer a hybrid choice of the two styles, one could also make a reasonable case for Jeff Montgomery who had a relatively short career (13 seasons, less than 875 innings) but also represents a step on the path from reliever types like Sutter to those like Rodriguez.

Manager: Davey Johnson

Johnson returned to managing Major League Baseball last year, with the Nationals, for the first time since he left the Dodgers after the 2000 season. Prior to his underwhelming two-year stint in LA—just over .500—Johnson had success everywhere he went. His first stop, with the Mets, peaked with the 1986 World Series title, of course, but also saw the team never finish below second place. After a rough start in Cincinnati, Johnson had the team in first place when the strike came in 1994 and led them to the playoffs in 1995. Taking over the Orioles in ’96, Johnson took the team to the ALCS both years at Camden Yards and the team won the AL East start-to-finish in ’97.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Richard Barbieri 2012-01-05T09:13:15+00:00 The all-month team: December http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-all-month-team-december/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-all-month-team-december/#When:09:24:15
But it occurred to me—at work, where I do most of my best column-related thinking, of course—that if one constructed teams based around players born in each month that would be a fair comparison. So this will be in the first in a year-long series of pieces of making a team for each month. Next December, when the teams for each month have rolled out, we can find out just which month will be the best.

For this exercise, the ground rules are simple. Each player’s date of birth is as listed on his Baseball-Reference.com page—I don’t imagine there will be much confusion on this point, but it never hurts to head it off at the start—and the player must have played at least 50 percent of his games at a position to qualify for the spot. And of course, I reserve the right to realize I made a terrible mistake and change the team up to next December when we compare.

Having gotten that out of the way, let’s begin:

Catcher: Johnny Bench

This is the strong spot on the All-December team, as Bench’s back-up catcher is Carlton Fisk who could start for a lot of months. And just in case either Bench or Fisk suffers an injury, another Hall of Famer, Gabby Harnett, could also play for the team. This is as impressive a line-up at any catcher as any month can hope for, especially given there are only 12 catchers in the Hall of Fame who played Major League baseball entirely (or primarily) in the 20th century.

First base: Steve Garvey

If December were a real team, it would likely either move one of its Hall of Fame-caliber catchers to first base, or attempt to make a trade. But here under my rules, the team is stuck with Garvey. Now this is not a truly terrible thing since Garvey was not by any means a bad player. Nonetheless, he is surely not on the same level as some of the rest of the men in the December infield.

The All-December second baseman acknowledges his fans (Icon/SMI)

Second base: Craig Biggio

Luckily for both Biggio and the all-December team, his move from out behind home plate to second after the 1991 season earns him this spot on the team. Biggio hung on too long in the quest for 3,000 hits—his last season in particular was pretty brutal—but that should not take away anything from the career he put together which including leading the league in steals, runs (twice), doubles (thrice) and HBP (five painful times).

Third base: Stan Hack

There was a time—not too long ago really—when I would have written that Hack was just keeping this space warm for David Wright. The Mets stalwart might yet take over this spot, since he remains young enough to regain his form of years past. For now though, the spot belongs to Hack. The lifetime Cub led the league in hits twice and stolen bases in back-to-back years in 1938 and 1939. (Stealing a combined 33 bases—the late ‘30s were not a running time.)

Shortstop: Ozzie Smith

Since there’s nothing anyone likes more than hearing a writer complain about the process—I assume—I will say that the one bad part about writing these columns is that it is often difficult to find something to say about a great player that hasn’t already been said. Of course, we all know Smith was a brilliant defensive shortstop and even developed his bat into an asset late in his career. So instead I will say that Jay Bell, probably the second best shortstop born in December, would rank as the back-up infielder on the team since he can play all of the middle infield positions, while Eric Chavez would back up at the corners.

Left field: Rickey Henderson

He’d probably still be playing today—at 52—if someone would give him a job. And he could probably still get on base better than some players holding down everyday roles, even if that might be his only plus skill left. Of course, the young Rickey was not lacking for talent. A 10-time All-Star, 1990 American League MVP and two-time World Series winner, Henderson is almost comfortable ensconced as the all-time leader in stolen bases where no active player is within 850. Alex Rodriguez is the only player with a reasonable shot at Henderson’s all-time lead in runs (he is less than 500 away) but will still need to average more than 78 runs per season for the rest of his Yankee contract—a figure he hasn’t bettered since 2008.

Center field: Ty Cobb

For players with a similar set of skills—getting on base, stealing bases, scoring runs—it is hard to imagine two people more different in the public consciousness than Rickey Henderson and Ty Cobb. Rickey is a figure of fun, and the source of a million goofy stories, some of which are actually true. Cobb meanwhile is the personification of the excesses of a win at all costs attitude, a caricature villain who sharpened his spikes, fought fans in the stands and was a galloping racist to boot. Both are more complicated than that, but as we get farther from their respective times, it seems likely the images will only be entrenched.

Right field: Al Kaline

A Detroit Tiger for his entire career, Al Kaline is among the small handful of players to have a truly outstanding season at a very young age (20 in Kaline’s case) and then never quite better it. Of course, there is no shame for Kaline who hit .340 in 1955 with 200 hits and 321 total bases, all league-leading totals. Even if he never topped ’55, Kaline continued to be an offensive force into his 30s—he had 55 extra-base hits at age 32—and at the time of his retirement after the 1974 season, only Mel Ott and Hank Aaron had hit more home runs as a right fielder.

Starting rotation: Steve Carlton, Sandy Koufax, Fergie Jenkins, Mike Mussina, Ted Lyons

That’s a pretty solid one-two punch at the top of the rotation. Depending on how one feels about career value compare to peak, Carlton and Koufax could arguably be two of the top left-handed pitchers of all-time. I’m glad to see Mussina make this team since Moose (as I’ve probably complained before) is a chronically underrated pitcher. Lyons, meanwhile, would presumably be counted on to start more frequently than he did in his later years when he was known as “Sunday Teddy” for pitching almost exclusively on that day of the week—a plan which allowed him to lead the American League in ERA (2.10) at age 41.

Mike Mussina, most recent ace born in December (Icon/SMI)

Closer: Lee Smith

Closer has almost the same wealth as catcher for the All-December team. Of the 22 pitchers with 300 or more saves, three—Smith, Tom Henke and Rick Aguilera were all born in December. In a few years, December may have another name to that list as another career resurrection from Brad Lidge might give him the 77 saves needed to reach 300. But even without Lidge, the pen for December has some strong arms.

Manager: Walt Alston

Alston is a figure—like a couple of others—who watched the game evolve around him. At the time he took over as Dodgers manager the team still played in Brooklyn and never traveled farther than St. Louis for a road trip. By the time he retired, he had led the team to the west coast and into an era of free agency and unprecedented player movement. More importantly for his place on this team, Alston won more than 2000 games—still ninth all-time—along with seven pennants and four World Series titles.

As this is my last column of 2011, I would to take the chance to thank all of you who read it and especially those who take the time to comment—even when you’re pointing out my mistakes. It is always appreciated and never something I take for granted. I wish everyone the best for the holidays, and will see you all in 2012.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Richard Barbieri 2011-12-15T09:24:15+00:00 This annotated week in baseball history: Dec. 4-Dec. 10, 2011 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/this-annotated-week-in-baseball-history-dec.-4-dec.-10-2011/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/this-annotated-week-in-baseball-history-dec.-4-dec.-10-2011/#When:09:42:15
Of course, everyone else doesn’t need to be such a completist when it comes to these books. As such, the following are my suggestions for the best of baseball history in book form. You can give them with confidence to a loved one, or to yourself when the time comes to use the Amazon.com gift cards. Some are better known and perhaps already widely owned, while others are slightly more obscure. Nonetheless, all merit a place on the shelf of a baseball fan.

Although it is something of a shameless plug, I would recommend The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2012 even without my own contribution. My own piece aside, I enjoyed James Holzhauer’s Diary of a Mad Sports Bettor, Max Marchi’s People Will Most Definitely Come and Rob Neyer’s GM in a Box: Theo Epstein but everything in there is, at the least, pretty good.

While we’re on the topic of works by those associated with THT, I cannot say enough nice things about Chris Jaffe’s Evaluating Baseball’s Managers. It is a frequently useful point of reference in my column writing, but as often as not I find that I go to look up some relatively minor point and end up lost in reading an interesting bit of history or analysis.

In particular I recommend the book to Red Sox fans since they can read to compare how new skipper Bobby Valentine will differ from the departed Terry Francona. Fans who read carefully will likely find themselves able to impress friends with predictions of Valentine’s tendencies as opposed to the ex-skipper.

Speaking of books in which it is easy to get lost, Jim Bouton’s Ball Four is an all-time classic. Though the book has since lost much of its then-revolutionary bite—these days it seems hard to believe the idea of portraying Mickey Mantle as a drinker was once controversial—it remains eminently readable. In fact, the book now functions best as a slice-of-life for the period in which it was written.

Chris Jaffe can tell Red Sox' fans what to expect from this man (Icon/SMI)

1969 was an interesting era for baseball, after integration and western expansion but before free agency and Bouton does an excellent job of capturing the game as it was then. Even more so, he manages to give a sense of America at the time covering issues from Vietnam to the Civil Rights Movement.

Like the movie version—half an hour too long, a bit taken with its own cleverness and weirdly insistent on using Ron Washington in the “Magical Negro” role—Moneyball the book is not without its flaws. Nonetheless, in its own way, it is every bit as influential as Ball Four. As big a Bill James fan as I am, nobody, not James, not Billy Beane nor Rob Neyer, did more to spread the ideas of sabermetrics than Michael Lewis.

Even more than spreading word of sabermetrics, Moneyball is worth reading because it might be the last of its kind. Someday a ballplayer might write another Ball Four, but the chance that another general manager grants a writer of Lewis' quality essentially unfettered access to his front office for an extended period is so little as to be basically zero.

Though they played one of the more compelling World Series of the last 25 years, the 1997 Marlins are a team whose place in the popular consciousness is unenviable. They are either forgotten as a footnote in the midst of the late-1990s Yankee dynasty, or worse, mocked as a one-year wonder that couldn’t even win their own division or draw fans until October.

It should come as no surprise then, that Dave Rosenbaum’s If They Don’t Win, It’s a Shame: The Year the Marlins Bought the World Series is currently out of print. But that too is a shame because it is a hugely enjoyable chronicle of the Marlins’ season, from signing the free agents—like Alex Fernandez and Bobby Bonilla—that made a World Series wining team, to the dismantling of that team less than a year later. The book is not always complimentary; Jim Leyland and Kevin Brown come off especially badly, but it presents an interesting view of nearly every major figure (both player and executive) associated with the Marlins that season.

It can still be found from some re-sellers, and for a slightly more obscure pick this holiday season—and one particularly relevant as the Marlins begin their new life as the Miami Marlins and again seem willing to spend free agent dollars—I recommend it highly.

Finally, because I cannot help myself, I will suggest one novel to give the baseball history buff this season. Though I’ve not yet read Chad Harbach’s much-praised The Art of Fielding it will difficult for it to top The Celebrant, by Eric Rolfe Greenberg, as the best baseball novel. Just about lost to obscurity, The Celebrant mixes the fictional story of a family of Jewish immigrant jewelers with the real-life feats of Christy Mathewson and the New York Giants. The book is brilliantly written and will be a treat for anyone familiar with baseball’s early days—and probably inspire interest for those not.

One need not build a baseball book collection the size of mine—the exact number of which I am deliberately omitting—to have a strong selection. And of course, the best possible news for the baseball history fan is that there is always more history being made and within a few years this list will no doubt have some notable additions.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Richard Barbieri 2011-12-08T09:42:15+00:00 This annotated week in baseball history: Nov. 13-Nov. 20, 1862 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/this-annotated-week-in-baseball-history-nov.-13-nov.-20-1862/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/this-annotated-week-in-baseball-history-nov.-13-nov.-20-1862/#When:09:03:15 On November 13, 1862, Podge Weihe was born. Richard takes us through the path that leads to Anthony Bass, and explains why you want to do that.

It has been a while since I did a chain column; that is, walking through history from one player of the very distant past to one of very recent memory through shared teammates. These columns are always a fun way to go from the past to the present while stopping in at various points.

Today, we’ll start with Podge Weihe—who was the earliest player to make his debut born on November 13, the beginning of this week—and finish with Padres’ prospect Anthony Bass, who was the most recent player to debut born on November 19, the end of this week. Without further ado, let’s begin:

Podge Weihe Played with Jerry Dorgan (1884 Indianapolis Hoosiers)

I think the name is pronounced “Pod-ge” (rhymes with “dodge”) rather than “Po-dge” (rhymes—more or less—with “loge”) but that’s really just a guess. In any case, Weihe’s Major League career was brief—just one full season in the American Association for the above-mentioned Hoosiers. It is surprising Weihe did not appear more, since he was just 21 at the time of his year, and his .646 OPS was above average for the dreadful Hoosiers who went 29-78 that season.

Nonetheless, the unorganized nature of early baseball means that it is easily possible Weihe went to ply his trade for a league without Major League status and whose records have now faded into obscurity.

Tommy John, in better days than 1989 (Icon/SMI)

Jerry Dorgan Played with Deacon McGuire (1885 Detroit Wolverines)

For the record, the baseball franchise here—founded in 1881—was stealing their nickname from the University of Michigan sports teams, whose teams were the Wolverines as much as 20 years earlier.

In any event, Jerry Dorgan was a back-up outfielder for the Wolverines in his final season at the Major League level. He batted a respectable .286 that year (the Wolverines as a team hit just .243) but was blocked from more action because the team’s best hitters, including future Hall of Famers Ned Hanlon, occupied the outfield.

Deacon McGuire Played with Roger Peckinpaugh (1910 Cleveland Naps)

McGuire is kind of cheating on a list like this, because his time with the Naps in 1910 was more of a gimmick experience than anything else. At the time he was 46, the team’s manager and had not been a regular since 1904. In fact, McGuire played just one game this season, though he did at least manage to record a hit and be hit by a pitch during the game.

But novelty appearances like this shouldn’t mask the authentic longevity of McGuire’s career. Debuting in 1884 at age 20, he played at least as many as 50 games every year from 1890 through to 1906. At the time of retirement from regular play, McGuire was in the top 25 all-time in games played.

Roger Peckinpaugh Played with Ossie Bluege (1922 Washington Senators)

Though the Senators have a long (and not undeserved) reputation for being terrible, 1922 was the last of the truly awful Senators teams for more than a decade. Obviously no one was going to be confusing the team with the Yankees in those years, but from 1923 through 1933 the Senators never lost more than 81 games. More importantly, they won 90 or more games six times, which earned them three trips to the World Series, including a victory in 1924.

Watching the ’22 Senators, it would seem hard to believe a World Series victory was just two years away. The team finished 16 games under .500, and in sixth place 25 games behind the Yankees. Combined with second baseman Bucky Harris, Peckinpaugh anchored the infield defense for the quality Senators teams, doing well enough to earn the American League MVP in 1925.

Ossie Bluege Played with Early Wynn (1939 Washington Senators)

Unfortunately for Ossie Bluege, who lived through the Senators’ glory days, by 1939 those days were gone. After losing the 1933 World Series, the team finished over .500 just once in the next nine seasons. While there was plenty of blame to go around, some had to fall on Bluege, who hovered around replacement level for most of the post ’33 years.

Early Wynn Played with Tommy John (1963 Cleveland Indians)

Wynn, as I’ve probably said before, was the first of the last 300-game winner. That was in 1963, for those of you keeping track at home. But fear not, terrible sportswriters everywhere are ready, willing and able to tell you that Randy Johnson will be the last man to win 300 games.

For his part, Wynn barely dragged himself across the 300 mark. The White Sox found his 1962 performance (7-15, 4.46) so ineffective that they released him even though he was sitting on 299 wins and had thrown three shutouts in ’62. The Indians picked up him and thus earned their mention on this list, in addition to Wynn’s three-hundredth victory and 55 effective innings.

Tommy John Played with Al Leiter (1989 New York Yankees)

This was just about the end of the line for Tommy John, who was 46, which is older even by crafty lefty standards. More than a dozen years into the second career launched after John had his now-namesake surgery, he went just 2-7 with a 5.80 ERA. Unfortunately for the lefty that would be the last season of his career—no surgical miracles this time—leaving him 12 wins short of 300 and likely short of the Hall of Fame.

Anthony Bass, the final link in the chain (Icon/SMI)

Al Leiter Played with Heath Bell (2004 New York Mets)

I didn't intend it this way, but this seems to run through a lot of players (and teams) on the downswing on their career. This was Leiter's penultimate season, compared to the last years for both Wynn and John. But I’m actually going to write about Leiter’s next—and last—year, with the 2005 Marlins, because the 2004 Mets, candidly, were not a particularly interesting team and final years are always fun things to compare.

Unfortunately for Leiter, at least concerning his time in Florida during his last year, he wins the honor of worst performance on this list, going just 3-7 in 17 games (16 starts) with a gruesome 6.64 ERA. The Marlins cut bait—see what I did there?—on the lefty in July, shipping him to a Yankee team that won 95 teams despite getting a combined 32 starts from pitchers with an ERA of six or higher, including five pitchers whose ERA was in the double-digits. This being the case, it is easy to see why Leiter, who posted a 5.49 ERA in New York, was a welcome addition.

For their part, the 2005 Marlins were better than the likes of the '89 Yankees (to say nothing of the dreadful Hoosiers) but were perhaps the last Marlins' team with a substantial link to their World Series successes. Either during or after the season, Jack McKeon, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, Juan Pierre, Jeff Conine and Leiter—all big parts of the title winning teams in 1997, 2003, or both—departed the franchise.

2005 was something of an inglorious end for Leiter—though he did earn a victory in ALDS Game 4, his final Major League appearance, which isn't a bad way to go out—who, in addition to his title in Florida, was part of the Blue Jays' 1993 World Series team, and the pennant winning Mets of 2000.

Heath Bell Played with Anthony Bass (2011 San Diego Padres)

And at long last—eight players and some dreadful teams later—we arrive at Anthony Bass. As I mentioned above, Bass is a Padres’ prospect. Though he does not project to be an ace, the Padres have already gotten good value from a man picked one-hundred and sixty-fifth overall in the 2008 draft.

The game has changed a lot since it was played by Podge Weihe—not in the least because people are no longer nicknamed “Podge”—and will doubtless change nearly as much by the time we are in 2138, the same distance from Bass’ debut that Podge’s is from Bass. I’m pretty unlikely to be here chronicling it (although if I am more than 150 years old, the idea of staying in to write baseball columns will be pretty appealing) but we will see what becomes of baseball in that time.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Richard Barbieri 2011-11-17T09:03:15+00:00 Offseason decisions: Should the Yankees sign CJ Wilson? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/offseason-decisions-should-the-yankees-sign-cj-wilson/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/offseason-decisions-should-the-yankees-sign-cj-wilson/#When:09:36:15 One of a series on dilemmas facing major league teams this winter.

In my younger days, I went through a brief period when I liked nothing more than to collect team yearbooks. As such, I have a collection of them dating from the period when both the Yankees and Mets were at their early 1990s nadir. The 1993 Yankees’ yearbook—in addition to featuring the odd sight of current Red Sox owner John Henry pictured as a Yankee Director—includes a line that notes the team received “the free agent heave-ho [from] the likes of Greg Maddux, Barry Bonds and David Cone, whose bait-and-switch tactics revealed their true insincerities.”

I bring this up not only because it sounds like it was written by 15-year old girl whose boyfriend just broke up with her, but also because until Cliff Lee spurned the Yankees last off-season, the team’s failure to land any of Maddux, Bonds or Cone was the last time the team aggressively pursued a marquee free agent only to lose out. All of which is to say that while nothing is ever a sure thing, it seems likely that if the team decides they want to sign CJ Wilson, they will get him. But is that the right move?

The Pros

There can be no dispute that the Yankees need starting pitching. Though re-signing CC Sabathia without significant drama improved the situation, the team still has a serious need for starters. Dan Szymborski’s recently released ZiPS projections forecast the Yankees having less than 400 innings of above-average starting pitching on the roster for 2012—all of it from Sabathia and second-year pitcher Ivan Nova. In 2011 the Yankees were lucky to catch lightening in a bottle with a thoroughly unexpected season from Bartolo Colon and a surprising one from Freddy Garcia. But counting on either for next season—to say nothing of AJ Burnett (now dreadful for two consecutive years) and Phil Hughes (who took a major step backwards in 2011)—is a risky proposition at best.

Will Yankee fans be happy to see this man in Pinstripes? (Icon/SMI)

There is little doubt that if Wilson maintains the performance level he set in Texas, he would add significantly to the Yankees’ starting pitching. Over the past two years, only nine American League pitchers threw more innings than Wilson’s combined 427.1, and only four—Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver did it with a better ERA+. Wilson’s track record is not as long as those pitchers—a point we will discuss more in the “con” section—but since his move to the rotation Wilson has pitched at an ace level. His short track record as a starter does also give him the benefit that while he is entering his age 31 season—and he pitched in the Majors since 2005—he has barely over 700 regular season innings, significantly fewer than many pitchers the same age.

Another advantage for the Yankees is that Wilson will cost them only money. Though the Yankees payroll has flexibility issues upcoming—in 2013 alone they have nearly $50 million committed to Burnett, Rafael Soriano and Derek Jeter alone—they could plausibly afford Wilson, whose deal seems likely to end up in the range of $15 million per year for five years. And unlike the assortment of young pitchers the team is forever rumored to be involved in acquiring—ranging from King Felix to Matt Cain to Wandy Rodriguez—signing Wilson would allow the Yankees to add a starting pitcher without sacrificing either top prospect Jesús Montero or any of the organization’s young arms.

The Cons

The most obvious con with Wilson is that he has just two good seasons as a starter, and even those years have some red flags. Prior to 2010, Wilson had made just six career starts at the big league level (all in his rookie season) and even now he has significantly more games finished (110) than started (73). Few free agent pitchers commanding big money as starters have such a short history in that role. It seems reasonable to ask if Wilson will be able to maintain his status as a consistent 200-innng, above-average starter.

And that question is only more reasonable when you consider that a five-year deal for the pitcher would cover his age 31 through 35 seasons. Teams from the Yankees (Burnett) to the Braves (Derek Lowe) to the Red Sox (John Lackey) have been burned in recently memory by signing pitchers on the wrong side of age 30, some of who had far more extensive histories of quality than Wilson. As noted above, while his light workload in years past might aid him in remaining an effective pitcher as he ages, it remains a fact that long-term contracts for pitchers in their 30s are a real risk.

It is perhaps an even bigger risk for Wilson, whose peripheral numbers raise some questions. Though his performance has been strong during his starting days, it is also true that Wilson led the American League in walks in 2010 (with 93) and was seventh his year. The lefty saw an uptick in strikeout numbers pushing his K/BB ratio to nearly three but prior to this season it was under two for his career. Among American League ERA qualifiers the past two seasons (i.e., those who pitched at least 324 innings) Wilson is just one—along with Burnett—of six pitchers to have a BB/9 above three and a half.

The Conclusion

Ulitmately, I cannot endorse the Yankees’ signing Wilson. This is in part because of his weaknesses but also because it seems a poor allocation of the team’s resources in general. While my personal preference is for the team to acquire Japanese ace Yu Darvish—who might cost slightly more in raw dollars than Wilson, but whose posting fee would not count against the team’s luxury tax—there are other routes the team could go.

GM Brian Cashman is said to be in contact with the agent for Roy Oswalt, and a shorter commitment for the former Astros and Phillies hurler would give the team more flexibility should a true ace—like Tim Lincecum who will currently be a free agent after the 2013 season—hit the market. The signing of Oswalt, combined with bringing back Freddy Garcia, would likely allow the team to comfortably project as serious contenders while both keeping their options open for trades and the possibility of development of young pitchers like Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances.

Only time will tell if the Yankees set an aggressive pursuit of Wilson, and if the lefty will be tempted. But the team may ultimately be glad if the pitcher chooses the path taken by pitchers like Maddux and Lee and passes up the Yankees’ millions.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Richard Barbieri 2011-11-10T09:36:15+00:00 This annotated week in baseball history: Oct. 30-Nov. 5, 2009 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/this-annotated-week-in-baseball-history-oct.-30-nov.-5-2009/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/this-annotated-week-in-baseball-history-oct.-30-nov.-5-2009/#When:09:01:15 On November 4, 2009 the Yankees won the World Series. For the Yankees, this represented their 27th championship, but was also an important win in another tally. Richard explains why.

Watching the World Series this year, it occurred to me that Texas’ win in Game 5 was the first time a Texas team had held a lead in a World Series. The Astros were swept in their only World Series appearance, while the Rangers had managed just one win in the 2010 series.

In fact, this meant that going into the 2011 World Series, the state of Texas was a collective 1-8 (.111) in the World Series, the worst collective record by any state with more than one appearance. A loss in seven games may not sound like much of an improvement—and I’m sure it is cold comfort to Ranger fans—but until then the World Series was not exactly a case of Don’t Mess with Texas.

More generally though, this got me thinking about the all-time World Series by state. As such, I went through and calculated the record for every state (and Canadian province and the District of Columbia) to send a team to the World Series. So we’ll review those states which have seen the most success, the least, and give you my thoughts on what the future might hold.

Most World Series Wins by State
{exp:list_maker}1. New York 203
2. Missouri 71
3. California 65
4. Pennsylvania 61
5. Massachusetts 49
6. Ohio 39 {/exp:list_maker}

First, and most obviously, is the incredible lead New York has on the field. You need the rest of the top five—which is actually five states—to beat their total. This is in no small part from the dominance of the state’s teams prior to the Dodgers and Giants move across the coast. New York teams played each other 14 times in the World Series, nearly 15 percent of the time, and every win in those series was a win for New York. There is a fairly obvious downside to that as well, which we will get to in a bit.
California got a late start in the running, of course, not winning a World Series game until 1959. But it also has the advantage of playing, since 1969, with five teams while no other state has more than two. In fact, given the sheer number of teams, it is surprising that California has only won 11 World Series games in the last 22 years.

I put Ohio and its 39 wins because of the state they just edge out. Illinois is in seventh place all-time with 36 wins. It is possible that had the 1919 White Sox not thrown the World Series that season they could have beaten out the Reds and would put the Land of Lincoln there. For now though, the Buckeyes hold on to their place.

Most World Series Losses by State
{exp:list_maker}1. New York 175
2. Missouri 74
3. California 67
4. Pennsylvania 66
5. Illinois 46 {/exp:list_maker}

Here we see the shortcoming of all the Subway Series games, as New York has nearly as commanding a lead in losses as they do when it comes to wins. But New York can at least take comfort in knowing they are in the only team among the top five in losses who nonetheless have a winning record in World Series play.

California and Pennsylvania have been switching on-and-off with that spot a lot recently. Prior the Phillies recent run of success, Pennsylvania had 61 losses, but the Phillies one loss in 2008 and defeat at the hands of the Yankees in 2009 left the states tied. The Giants, meanwhile, put the Golden State back alone in third with their loss in Game Three of the World Series two seasons ago.

Illinois, meanwhile, shows the effects of having two teams which have won a grand total of one World Series title since 1917.

Highest WS Winning Percentage (Minimum 2 Appearances)
{exp:list_maker}1. Ontario .666 (8-4)
2. Massachusetts .590 (49-34)
3. Maryland .576 (19-14)
4. New York .537 (203-175)
5. Minnesota .524 (11-10) {/exp:list_maker}

Two appearances is the same as eight games, of course, which means at least two Series wins, which seems like a reasonable standard to me. If you increase the appearances to more than two, you lose Ontario and Minnesota and move Florida (.500, 9-9) and California (.492, 65-67) move into the top five. It seems a little silly having teams in the top five of winning percentage to be teams at and below .500, so I’m sticking with my minimum. If you eliminate any minimum at all, Arizona (.571, 4-3) would slot in ahead of New York.

Lowest WS Winning Percentage (Minimum 2 Appearances)
{exp:list_maker}1. Texas .250 (4-12)
2. Georgia .379 (11-18)
3. Illinois .439 (36-46)
4. Washington DC .444 (8-10)
5. Michigan .450 (27-33) {/exp:list_maker}

Ouch, a state does not want to appear on that list. The issues Texas has had in the World Series I covered in the introduction—had the Rangers closed out Game Six, it would not have been enough to clear the state from the bottom spot on this list, but would have improved its winning percentage up to .333. The struggles of the Bobby Cox led Braves (who were 11-10 after winning Game 2 in the 1996 World Series) in the Fall Classic put Georgia into the second spot on this list.

Until I put this list together, I never really thought of Michigan as a state that struggled in October, but most of its struggles come from the early part of the 20th Century when the Tigers won three straight pennants and went a downright Texan 4-12. Since then, the state is 23-21 (.522) which is rather better.

If you drop the two appearance requirement, Colorado—which was swept in 2007—takes over the bottom spot, while Wisconsin (3-4 in 1982) would slot in before Illinois.

Of course, every year brings a new chance for states to redeem themselves. A successful trip to the World Series for the Diamondbacks will put Arizona into the top five all-time in winning percentage, which is also true of a good season from either the Rays or Marlins for Florida. New York’s spot as the leader in wins and losses is no doubt very, very secure but much else is up for grabs.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Richard Barbieri 2011-11-03T09:01:15+00:00 Postseason Yankees: CC and the question marks http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/postseason-yankees-cc-and-the-question-marks/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/postseason-yankees-cc-and-the-question-marks/#When:10:01:15 The season in review
What went right—briefly:

Curtis Granderson had a disappointing first season in New York in 2010, battling injuries and early-season struggles. Given a second chance in 2011, Granderson has exploded.

He is posting the best season of his career with the bat while seemingly solving his long-term issue with lefties, hitting .277 with 16 home runs. This follows batting averages of .234 and .245 against lefties the previous two seasons with just six homers combined. (All numbers are through Sept. 22.)

Despite missing some crucial pieces (more about that below), the bullpen is once again a strength. In addition to the ageless Mariano Rivera, this year has been about the emergence of David Robertson. The Alabama native has a 1.11 ERA and is striking out nearly 13.5 batters per nine innings. Other strong performers include bounce-back veterans Cory Wade(6-1, 1.98) and Luis Ayala (2-2, 1.69).

Can Alex Rodriguez regain his 2009 playoff form? (Icon/SMI)

Through July 7, Derek Jeter was posting just a .649 OPS and seemed every bit as finished as his detractors claimed. But on July 9, Jeter recorded his 3,000th hit—a home run, famously—and since then he has hit .341 and has a shot to finish the year above .300.

What went wrong—briefly:

Whose numbers are these: 66 innings, 3.27 ERA, $19.4 million in salary? Unfortunately for Yankee fans, that’s the combined statistics for Rafael Soriano, Joba Chamberlain, Pedro Feliciano and Damaso Marte.

Combine that with the performance of Boone Logan—ostensibly the Yankees’ top lefty out of the bullpen despite actually posting reverse platoon splits—and the Yankees' bullpen success is even more improbable.

Alex Rodriguez made $32 million in 2011, but has struggled with injuries (he will play his fewest games since 1995) and poor performance. This season will end Rodriguez’s streak of thirteen straight years with 30 home runs and 100 RBI.

Jorge Posada—troubled by the switch to DH and the debacle of his asking out of the lineup when assigned to bat ninth—has led to an ungraceful end to the Yankee career of one of the cornerstones of their recent title teams. The bench has also been hit-or-miss, with questionable defense and a recent slump by Eduardo Nunez and erratic performances from Francisco Cervelli but strong play by Andruw Jones.

The playoffs

What’s to come—less briefly

Barring a remarkable comeback from the Angels, it seems likely the Yankees will open the playoffs facing either the Detroit Tigers or Texas Rangers. In a five-game series like the ALDS, analysis of the opponent is always difficult, sometimes bordering on futile.

The Tigers' advantage is primarily in their starting pitching, as Justin Verlander—who will run away with the Cy Young award and may yet win the AL MVP—and Doug Fister pose a formidable one-two punch. But the Tigers are relatively weak offensively, regularly running out multiple players with sub-.325 on-base percentage.

Despite the quality of C.J. Wilson (2.97 ERA, more than 200 strikeouts) and emergence of Derek Holland (8-1, 2.92 ERA since the All-Star break) the Rangers cannot match the starting pitching quality of the Tigers. But the team ranks in the top three in hits, runs, batting average, on-base and slugging percentage.

Perhaps the most important Yankee in October: Ivan Nova (Icon/SMI)

Neither team makes for an easy match-up for the Yankees, who in the last two years under Joe Girardi have gone 6-0 in the LDS, sweeping a seemingly hapless Twins team both times while outscoring them by a combined 32-13.

Given the strength of the Yankees’ offense, it seems likely that the pitching—especially the starting pitching—will determine how long an October journey they take.

CC Sabathia, winner of 19 games and having arguably his finest season in pinstripes, will be carrying the load in the playoffs. Girardi has all but announced that the team will go with a three-man rotation in the LDS, pitching Sabathia on short rest in a possible Game Four.

The second starter is likely to be Ivan Nova. Since returning to the majors after a brief demotion, Nova has gone 8-0 with a 2.92 ERA, a development owed to the slider Nova refined throughout his season.

Of course, this is taking an already small sample and reducing it even further, which is, in statistical terms, a very bad thing. Nonetheless, if Nova can maintain his recent performance, that will go a long way to carrying the Yankees to World Series glory.

The third starter remains an open question. Bartolo Colon had been the team’s second-best starter much of the season, but at age 38 and not exactly a fitness buff, he may be fading. Since August, Colon is 0-4 with a 5.58 ERA.

Meanwhile, Freddy Garcia has been doing his Eddie Harris act to much success for the year, but he also has performed badly of late.

This means the best option for the third starter might be Phil Hughes. Hughes has endured a largely awful year but posted two strong starts in September before back spasms kept him from making his last start. A.J. Burnett (6-9, 6.02 since May 15) will likely make the postseason roster but is unlikely to start a game.

Outside starts from Sabathia, and perhaps Nova, the Yankees will lean heavily on their bullpen. Though he struggled early, Soriano has posted a 2.42 ERA since his return from injury and combined with Robertson and Rivera, gives the Yankees perhaps the best bullpen Cerberus outside of Atlanta.

As Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver proved in the 2006 playoffs—posting a combined 2.45 ERA—unexpected arms can come up big in October. The Yankees likely will need some of their unexpected arms—perhaps Nova and his slider or Colon rediscovering his fastball—to step up and carry them back to the Canyon of Heroes. If the Bronx Bombers get that pitching, and combine it with characteristic offense, they will be a tough matchup for any team.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Richard Barbieri 2011-09-26T10:01:15+00:00 This annotated week in baseball history: Sept. 11-17, 1941 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/this-annotated-week-in-baseball-history-sept.-11-17-1941/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/this-annotated-week-in-baseball-history-sept.-11-17-1941/#When:10:01:15 On September 17, 1941, Stan Musial made his debut for the St. Louis Cardinals. That was the only franchise for which Musial would ever play. Richard looks at other similar players.

One of the prime complaints from the “good ol’ days” crowd of baseball fans is that player movement has eliminated the loyalty that once existed between a player, a team and the fans that supported both. Of course, a big part of “loyalty” was the force of the Reserve Clause, but that tends to be swept under the rug in the name of nostalgia.

Nonetheless, Musial’s debut today, wearing the only uniform he would ever wear, got me thinking about what kind of team you could construct entirely from players who spent their entire careers with only one franchise.

For the purposes of this exercise—excluding the DH spot—I required the player to see at least 51% of their time at the position. And the player could only have played for one team. Any appearance, no matter how brief, disqualified the player from the list.

Catcher: Johnny Bench

The greatest one-team catcher of all-time: Johnny Bench (Icon/SMI)

But for four games Yogi Berra played for the Mets in 1965, this might be a highly debated position. But instead it is Bench running away.

Most other great catchers, including Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez and Carlton Fisk, played for at least two teams, and sometimes many more.

Of some note is that the sole-team list of great catchers, Bench aside, is dominated by Yankees.

None of Bill Dickey, Thurman Munson nor Jorge Posada—to date—played their home games anywhere but the Bronx.

First Base: Lou Gehrig

This is the only position under serious attack right now, although the 2011-12 offseason will go a long way to showing us just how perilous Gehrig’s position is.

At the moment, the Iron Horse is ahead of Albert Pujols, both in performance and length of career. However, Pujols is fewer than 500 games behind Gehrig, and figures to play for at least another decade.

Should Pujols sign a long-term deal with the Cardinals and finish his career in St. Louis, he has a reasonable shot at taking over this position.

Second Base: Charlie Gehringer

Taking nothing away from Charlie Gehringer— and more about him more in a moment—this is one of two positions where the team has a player who is ordinarily brilliant, rather than an all-time elite player.

Dubbed “The Mechanical Man” by Lefty Gomez for his consistency, Gehringer spent 19 seasons in Detroit. During that time, he led the league, at various times, in batting, runs, hits, doubles, triples and stolen bases. He helped drive the Tigers' back-to-back pennant winners in 1934 and 1935 and won the American League MVP in 1937. The award represented the peak of a career which saw him finish in the top ten for MVP voting ten times.

Third Base: Mike Schmidt

Like Gehrig, Schmidt would have this spot no matter how many teams other third baseman played for. This is not to knock the other one-team third baseman, including the likes of George Brett, Chipper Jones (to date, but a fair assumption, I think) and Brooks Robinson.

Also an interesting note is that Eddie Matthews—arguably the second-best third baseman of all-time—called five different cities his home: Boston, Milwuakee, Atlanta, Houston and Detroit. But the first three of those all came with the Braves franchise that couldn’t stay put during Matthews’ time with the club.

Shortstop: Cal Ripken, Jr.

Perhaps not surprisingly given the rarity of truly great shortstops, a substantial majority of them played with only one team: Ripken, Derek Jeter, Robin Yount, Luke Appling, Barry Larkin, Pee Wee Reese and Alan Trammell.

Even Honus Wagner sort of counts on this list, since although he played the first three seasons of his career with the Louisville Colonels, he was transferred to the Pirates when owner Barney Dreyfuss bought that franchise as well and moved most of Colonels there.

Indeed, Alex Rodriguez and Arky Vaughan are the only truly elite shortstops to switch teams, in the conventional sense, in their prime.

Left Field: Ted Williams

Poor Carl Yastrzemski. Yaz is an unquestionably brilliant player, and for virtually any other franchise he would be the finest left fielder ever to take the field. But when it comes to the Boston Red Sox, the list starts with Ted Williams and that’s that. And, of course, Williams also sends Yastrzemski to the bench on the one-team team. Teddy Ballgame also does the same to a pair of Pirates who played decades apart, Willie Stargell and Fred Clarke.

Center Field: Mickey Mantle

Just as Yankees dominate the one-team catchers, they have a similar stranglehold on the center field list. Of the top 30 center fielders by Baseball-Reference’s WAR listings, all have played for more than one team save five: Mantle, Joe DiMaggio, Bernie Williams, Kirby Puckett and Earle Combs.

Of those men, only Puckett played for a team other than the Yankees. In addition to the Yankees’ strong place on the list, the DiMaggio brand does well, with both Joe and Dom DiMaggio occupying spots as center fielders on the squad.

Right Field: Mel Ott

Excluding players who appeared on more than one team is about the only way a list like this will end up without Babe Ruth or Hank Aaron in the right field spot. But if the end result of such exclusion is giving credit to players like Ott, Al Kaline and Roberto Clemente, one could certainly do worse. For his part, Ott debuted at age 17 playing for John McGraw and played well enough—and long enough—that by the time of his last active season he was managing the Giants.

Designated Hitter: Stan Musial

Musial was never actually a designated hitter, of course, but he earned this place as the best one-team player not otherwise in the starting line-up. Other notables who only played for one team but didn’t make the starting line-up include Jeff Bagwell, Ernie Banks, Jeter, Bill Terry, Tony Gwynn and Jackie Robinson, In fact, it should be no surprise that you could form a pretty good squad with the bench of the best of the one-team players.

Starting Pitcher: Walter Johnson

The rest of the one-team rotation, for the record, is Bob Gibson, Bob Feller, Carl Hubbell and Jim Palmer. Those men averaged 291 wins for their career—anchored by Johnson’s 417—and all five are in the Hall of Fame. That list leaves a few very solid one-team pitchers, including the likes of Whitey Ford and the player who was probably the toughest omission, Sandy Koufax.

Relief Pitcher: Mariano Rivera

I don’t—really, I don’t—pick my column topics just to give me an excuse to write more great things about Rivera, but it does seem to work out that way a lot. Relievers, being a relatively modern concept and subject to swings in performance even among the greats, probably switch teams more frequently than any other position. In the top 25 of relievers by WAR, only three (Rivera, John Hiller and Bob Stanley) spent their career with just one team. That’s fewer than the number who played for four or more teams.

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