The Hardball Times -- R.J. Anderson http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-17T08:57:15+00:00 Five questions: Tampa Bay Rays http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-tampa-bay-rays2/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-tampa-bay-rays2/#When:10:30:15 What wacky lineups will Joe Maddon produce?
As of this writing, the projected 25-man roster features Ben Zobrist, B.J. Upton, Sean Rodriguez and Willy Aybar. With the exception of Aybar, the quartet shares a common positional genesis at shortstop, so it should be no surprise that versatility is in high supply.

Zobrist has 130 major league appearances at shortstop, 99 at second base and 89 in the outfield (he actually appeared at every position except catcher and pitcher last season). Upton has more than 350 starts in center field, but also 63 appearances at third base, 48 at second and 16 at short. When Jason Bartlett suffered an injury last season, Upton actually took grounders at shortstop just in case. Aybar is being restricted to third and first base this season, but has taken reps at short and second for the Rays and Rodriguez is essentially the new Zobrist.

Having four players with the capability to play, well, everywhere provides a ridiculous amount of flexibility for Maddon. Factor in that the Rays have a number of platoon-heavy hitters and things are going to be in constant flux. If Hank Blalock somehow makes the roster, there’s a chance the Rays could produce this lineup versus righties (career wOBA versus righties):

C Dioner Navarro (.334)
1B Carlos Pena (.382)
2B Ben Zobrist (.335)
3B Evan Longoria (.377)
SS Jason Bartlett (.310)
LF Carl Crawford (.345)
CF B.J. Upton (.332)
RF Matt Joyce (.357; small sample size)
DH Hank Blalock (.362)

And then this one to face southpaws (career wOBA versus lefties):

C Kelly Shoppach (.419)
1B Carlos Pena (.333)
2B Sean Rodriguez (.289; small sample size)
3B Evan Longoria (.364)
SS Jason Bartlett (.372)
LF Carl Crawford (.307)
CF B.J. Upton (.343)
RF Ben Zobrist (.366)
DH Pat Burrell (.389)

That’s four changes and without taking Aybar and his switch-hitting ability or Gabe Kapler and his .363 wOBA versus lefties into account. That’s also assuming the southpaw hitting Reid Brignac isn’t around and, well, you get the point. This club is deeper and more complex than a painting by M.C. Escher. Maddon is no stranger to mixing and matching either. During his four years with the Rays, he’s used 125, 100, 100 and 93 different lineups.

How many innings for Rafael Soriano?


Team owner Stuart Sternberg and the acquisition of Soriano have produced some quality quotations. Before the offseason began, Sternberg said something to the ilk of, "There aren’t any $7 million closers coming here." To which Andrew Friedman, who runs the baseball operations, said, "Hey, about that." Now the Rays did not pursue or acquire Soriano because he’s a closer, but more because he’s a good pitcher. Nevertheless, Sternberg said the Rays intend to have a little fun with their shiny bullpen toy, which raises the question: How thin is the line between an efficient workload and abusing the arm? Fingernail thin when that arm is under contract for only one season and that one season is the most important in team history.

The 30-year-old Soriano posted a career high in appearances and innings last season, which suggests that the Braves' Frank Wren and Bobby Cox intended to stretch the boundaries as well. Throughout Soriano’s career, he’s been death to righties (.520 OPS against) and an irritating annoyance to lefties (.707 OPS), which means calling upon him to face batters of either hand is no issue.

Soriano figures to rack up something like 30-35 saves in 2010. Of those with at least 30 saves in 2009, only Jonathan Broxton and Fernando Rodney pitched at least twice as many innings as they had saves. Brian Fuentes was the low man, with 1.1 innings per save, and the average of the group was 1.7. Expect Soriano’s innings per save ratio to be higher than Troy Percival’s in 2008 (1.6) but lower than J.P. Howell’s in 2009 (3.9).

The risk the Rays run is that Soriano’s arm will give out. He has a history of arm injuries and one caused him to miss most of 2008. Under Maddon’s watch the Rays have never had a reliever top 90 innings (Howell came awfully close in 2008 though, literally outs away). How Maddon balances Soriano’s duties as the Rays’ harbinger of finality will be something to watch for, if only to see what the Rays’ definition of fun is.

Will the Rays trade Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena?


The last time the Rays dealt with relevant players nearing the end of their contracts, they chose against the draft picks and took the security of choosing the prospects. Such efforts netted them a mixed bag of results.

In 2006, they dealt relievers Danys Baez and Lance Carter to the Dodgers for starting prospects Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany. (Jackson was later traded for Matt Joyce.) A few months later they finished the job, moving first baseman Aubrey Huff and cash to Houston for (then) shortstop Zobrist and starter Mitch Talbot. (Talbot was recently traded for Shoppach.)

Friedman also spun two deals with the Dodgers. First, he shipped starter/giant Mark Hendrickson, catcher Toby Hall and cash for starter/arsonist Jae-Weong Seo, catcher Dioner Navarro and outfielder Justin Ruggiano. Then, as the trade deadline came into view, he dealt shortstop Julio Lugo for outfielder Sergio Pedroza and infielder Joel Guzman.

Throughout the years, the Rays have demonstrated a high level of success in player scouting, whether it be domestic or international, prospect or amateur. The clash between team preference (seemingly taking the controlled variable, i.e. the prospects, rather than rolling the dice) and the reality of their contender status is compelling, if not ultimately won by the chance at a championship. The problem is that the Rays must rely not upon their scouts' eyes and notes, but first upon Elias’ algorithm to correctly identify Crawford and Pena as being worthy of Type-A status. Neither, surprisingly, is a lock. Evidently being the best defensive left fielder in baseball for many years running just isn’t worth as much to the Elias’ system as it should be.

The flip side to the Type-A status dilemma is that Pena very well could accept arbitration if offered. He loves the area and the team. Plus, with a first base market that includes Lance Berkman, Derek Lee, and oh yeah, Albert Pujols, the chance of Pena breaking the bank in free agency seems less certain than before. Agent Scott Boras’ tumultuous offseason with Johnny Damon could certainly fuel the flame of Pena sticking with the Rays.

That’s not to say the Rays haven’t been stocking up on first basemen like suntan lotion this offseason. The 2008 cult hero Dan Johnson and former prospect Ryan Shealy are in the system, as is the aforementioned Blalock. There’s also Matthew Sweeney, a poor-fielding third baseman with offensive potential whom they acquired in the Scott Kazmir trade. And the Rays signed Cuban outfielder/first baseman Leslie Anderson to a contract worth nearly $4 million.

The most comforting news for fans of the team who share a passion for amateur talent is that the club will hold six of the top 90 selections this June, including compensatory picks for failure to sign their first- and second-round selections in 2009 and a supplementary selection for the loss of Gregg Zaun. So whether Crawford and Pena stay or leave via trade or free agency, the Rays will be making a ton of early selections over the next two Junes which, along with the rise of arms like Matthew Moore and Alexander Colome, should keep the Rays’ farm system amongst the best in baseball, even with the graduation of guys like …

Will Desmond Jennings see the majors this year?


The short answer: Probably not until September.

The long answer: Jennings is the undisputed top prospect for the Rays. He’s a 23-year-old center fielder who bats right-handed, throws right-handed, and possesses five tools. Last year, Jennings played in 132 minor league games across Double- and Triple-A and combined for a batting line of .318/.401/.488 with 11 homers, 31 doubles and 52 steals in 577 plate appearances.

Many will tell you that Jennings is the typical Rays prospect. That’s a quick way to say the player is hyper-athletic with huge upside and likely has dark skin. Jennings is all of that. Some would say he’s a walk-conscious version of Carl Crawford, or a hybrid of B.J. Upton and Crawford. The Rays chose Jennings out of an Alabama Juco in the 10th round of the 2006 draft, the same draft that produced Longoria.

The problem—and literally, it might be the only problem—with Jennings has been health. He missed most of 2008 with a strained back and his spring training experience ended prematurely with a sprained wrist. The other problem, and this isn’t so much with Jennings or so much a problem, is that the Rays have incredible outfield depth in the majors already. Crawford, Upton, Kapler and Joyce form a solid foursome, with Zobrist and Rodriguez being able to take reps there as well. There’s also future poet laureate Fernando Perez and Jaime Cevallos’ newest patient Ruggiano roaming around Durham, just itching for a crack at St. Petersburg.

Will James Shields ever be appreciated?


Minus the 2008 playoffs and the now infamous "Big Game" nickname controversy, Shields has avoided the spotlight like his favorite meal is blood. Yet, over the last three seasons, Shields has a lower xFIP than John Lackey, Chad Billingsley, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Verlander, Andy Pettitte, Gil Meche, Scott Kazmir, Scott Baker, Mark Buehrle and John Danks. He’s thrown more innings than everyone in baseball except CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay and Dan Haren over that period as well.

So, why doesn’t the guy get more love? It’s hard to say. Nothing about Shields’ approach is spectacular. His velocity doesn’t win him radar gun groupies, his change-up is fantastic but he’s taken to using it less and less as the opposing hitters expect it more and more, and his mellow persona doesn’t allow for much in the way of imagination. He’s just James Shields. He’s just the guy who never reached top prospect status and appeared in 2006 under the name of Jamie. He’s just the guy who took the win in Tampa Bay’s first playoff game and lays claim to the only positive World Series decision in franchise history.

He’s just James Shields, the old chew toy on a staff of young guns. He’s just James Shields, and that means he’s just on the wrong end of some bad luck. He’s never won 15 games in a single season (which would be a Rays record) despite being just fantastic throughout most of his career. His run support per game started has dwindled (from 3.8 to 3.7 to 3.3) despite the Rays’ offense setting a franchise record for runs per game in 2009.

He’s the dude with the chin hair who wears number 33 and warms to the violent sounds of Du Hast. He’s the dude who hasn’t missed a start due to fatigue or injury since 2006, and missed a start in 2008 only because he tried being James Braddock. He’s one of only two long-term investments on the Rays, alongside that Longoria guy, and he’s under contract through 2014 for an average salary of roughly $7 million despite the Rays buying out a pair of free agency years. Consider this: Shields won’t make more than $8 million in a single season until 2013. Former teammate Edwin Jackson will make nearly $8.5 million next season. Here’s the kicker. Jackson’s career best season (as judged by xFIP) would be Shields’ worst.

Shields is probably going to pitch pretty well in 2010. He’ll probably do it without much fanfare or attention either, which is fine, that’s just who he is.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> R.J. Anderson 2010-03-16T10:30:15+00:00 Five questions: Tampa Bay Rays http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-tampa-bay-rays1/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-tampa-bay-rays1/#When:05:05:15 Who is the fifth starter?
Probably Jason Hammel. Jeff Niemann seems more likely to be in the long-term plans than Hammel, which is exactly why he’ll be shipped to the bullpen. Niemann has a past of injury concerns mixed with long warm-up times, which combined makes for someone who should probably become comfortable pitching in a non-starting capacity.

Niemann is the sexier pick, but as mentioned has his own set of issues. Hammel was the Rays' long-relief man and spot starter last season, filling in for Scott Kazmir early in the season. He did a serviceable job, if not an outstanding one. A comparison to Edwin Jackson seems apt, minus the golden arm and hype, as the Rays will hopefully see Hammel put together a few starts and gain trade value.

Either way, David Price will be in the rotation before long, and unlike most people, the Rays seem to realize how valuable Andrew Sonnanstine is. With James Shields, Scott Kazmir, and Matt Garza entrenched, there won’t be too many holes to fill for the next few years, whatever that means for Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Jeremy Hellickson, and the dozen other pitching prospects of note in the system is to be determined.

Can the team maintain heath?


That is a horrible question because there is absolutely no one who knows the answer. Last year, Kazmir, Garza, B.J. Upton, Troy Percival, Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, Willy Aybar, Jason Bartlett, Carlos Pena, Dioner Navarro, and Cliff Floyd missed time with injuries. In fact, using the handy DL list tool, we can figure the number of days missed:
{exp:list_maker}Kazmir, 43 days
Garza, 16
Upton, 34
Percival, 52
Crawford, 47
Longoria, 29
Aybar, 49
Bartlett, 21
Pena, 23
Navarro, 18
Floyd, 33{/exp:list_maker}

Coincidentally, the sum of those DL stints is 365 days.

Whether the idea that youth equals health (or diapers = crossed out medical cross in Joe Maddon’s math book) is going to withstand as true is going to be an interesting development. It sure didn’t last year.

Can they make a move at the deadline?



Probably not, at least not if it increases payroll.

Owner Stuart Sternberg basically said as much just this week and in the process almost wrote a raise in payroll for next season as well. The magic number here is $60 million. After 2010, nearly $30 million will roll off the books as the contracts of Carl Crawford, Pat Burrell, and Carlos Pena expire. The latter two are unlikely to be retained due to age-related declines. Crawford is an interesting case though. A look at his career win values suggests his best years were a few scores ago. Last year, Crawford suffered a batting average on balls in play lower than usual; whether that rebounds or not will determine his offensive game, and his defensive levels were likely unsustainable on a year-to-year basis.

What does all of that mean?

Well, if the Rays can send one of their expandable assets with a relatively high price tag—hello Dan Wheeler—for a piece, then so be it. Otherwise, it might have to be young player for young player. Of course, with a team so young and loaded around the diamond, this might not be as big an issue as you would expect and a lot can change if the area responds to the Rays like it did to the Buccaneers and Lightning championship runs.

Who is the non-roster invitee of note this year?


Andrew Friedman has a tendency of finding at least one useful contributor from the non-roster types. Ty Wigginton, Carlos Pena, and Eric Hinske pop to mind. This year the two players most likely to contribute are both former St. Louis Cardinals; reliever Jason Isringhausen and “infielder” Adam Kennedy. Infielder is in quotes because Kennedy has actually taken reps in the outfield during spring games. This is not an uncommon practice for non-starting infielders. For instance, Elliot Johnson and Ben Zobrist have both played the outfield despite being middle infielders by trait.

Isringhausen is in the running for a bullpen spot, but reportedly will exercise his veteran right to become a free agent if asked to take an assignment to Triple-A Durham. Given that Isringhausen didn’t sign until a few weeks ago, it seems unlikely that he will find a guaranteed gig anywhere barring a mass exodus of relievers to Japan. Depending on what the Rays do with Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann, there does not seem to be a spot for Isringhausen.

Meanwhile, Kennedy is in the running for the final bench spot alongside Matt Joyce.

How great was last year?


The 2008 season made all the losing, jokes, and frustration worth it.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> R.J. Anderson 2009-04-01T05:05:15+00:00 Five Questions: Tampa Bay Rays http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-tampa-bay-rays/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-tampa-bay-rays/#When:04:30:15 1. Does the Longoria era begin March 31?
The Rays have been a model for mediocrity since their inception. But ignore the putrid records for now and focus on the third base position. Since 1998 the team has used 38 starters at third. Some of the names are flat-out embarrassing (Alex S. Gonzalez at third, really?); some inspire no words you care to see here (Geoff Blum, Chris Truby, Nick Green); and a few, for Rays fans, inspire a bit of nostalgia (who doesn’t remember Vinny Castilla essentially robbing the Rays of a few million, or Aubrey Huff being the “franchise player”?).

You have to know where you’ve been to know where you’re at, and with that out of the way it seems like the team is ready to unleash the poster child for the new ideals of the organization. Sure, he actually asked a team official after being drafted which season was the last time the Rays made the playoffs, but he also hit .299/.402/.520 between a pitcher’s park in Double-A Montgomery and a hitter’s park in Triple-A Durham while playing a solid third. “He” is Evan Longoria, the third overall selection in the 2006 draft, and someone the team fell in love with so much that they scrapped a deal with Tim Lincecum to take Longoria after the Colorado Rockies passed on him.

Longoria is going to be very, very good one day, but the question this spring has been whether he’ll begin the season with the team or in the minors for “seasoning.” A similar tactic to gain an extra year of team control was used by the Milwaukee Brewers with Ryan Braun. The Brewers last year finished within a few games of the playoffs, and the murmurs are out there: Would they’ve made the playoffs with Braun starting since Day One? On the other end of the spectrum were the Kansas City Royals. Undoubtedly K.C.'s approach to Alex Gordon—starting him at third on opening day—was more justifiable to fans, but it leaves organizations with a perfect copout in the future with these situations. After all, do you really want the franchise’s next big thing to bust rather than spend a month in the minors?

If Longoria’s imminent takeover of the third base position is delayed, look for some combination of former top Dodger prospects Willy Aybar and Joel Guzman to play third, though as of this writing nothing is set in stone.

2. Is Andrew Friedman the new Billy Beane?

Perhaps that’s a bit hyperbolic—Friedman likely won’t have a book written about his approach on market efficiency anytime soon—but you have to admire the job the first-time general manager has done with some of the lowest payrolls even for the Rays’ meager history. Friedman has managed to combine talented prospects with a few steady veterans and some breakout candidates to the extent that PECOTA sees the Rays winning 88 games while only “paying” around $2 million per victory.

A former Tulane outfielder who found his playing days over after wrist and shoulder injuries, Friedman took over as the Rays’ Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations (a.k.a. general manager) in late 2005 after mainstay Chuck LaMar was canned along with most of the rest of the old front office. Despite not yet being 30 years old, Friedman was promoted from his job as the Rays’ Director of Baseball Development. Not too shabby for a guy who just years prior had been an analyst for Bear Stearns.

In 2006 it was Ty Wigginton, Greg Norton and Ruddy Lugo, three free agent/waiver pickups that made impacts far larger than expected. Last year Brendan Harris, Scott Dohmann, Al Reyes, Akinori Iwamura and, of course, Carlos Pena impressed with above-average performances. Can Friedman keep this run of turning lead into gold going? Eric Hinske, Scott Munter and John Rodriguez seemingly have the best shot of “breaking out."

However, without a doubt Friedman’s reputation will lay heavily on his now signature move: trading Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie for Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan. A risky move without a doubt, the Rays asserted that Delmon’s attitude issues had grown old, and they used the 21-year-old to effectively fill two holes while landing a decent young relief prospect.

3. How’s the leather?

Last year, the Rays were among the worst defensive teams in the league. Bartlett—one of the finest defensive shortstops in the league—along with the realignment of Iwamura should make the middle-infield defense a position of strength. Thus far in the spring some murmurs are popping up that the Rays finally have weapons on defense similar to what the Blue Jays have with the so-rangy-they-belong-in-a-circus-act-wonder-twins of John McDonald and Aaron Hill. But Tampa's guys should have more success at the plate than the Jays pair could coax out.

4. Now batting, your right fielder, … ?

In August of 2006 the Rays had Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Jonny Gomes, Josh Hamilton, Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes in the organization; a year and a half later only Crawford and Gomes figure to play any type of role in the Rays season. Baldelli is still around, but a mysterious mitochondria disease has all but ended his playing career and begun the glorious chants of “Win one for Rocco!” Of course, remember that Hamilton had barely been reinstated by Major League Baseball prior to injuring his knee and being taken in the Rule 5 draft, Dukes had a laundry list of issues, and Delmon essentially segregated the clubhouse into “Delmon” and “everyone else” in terms of the locker room hierarchy.

Obviously this has left a bit of a hole in right, with Gomes and another injury attractor, Cliff Floyd, being the only two “starting” options. However both were supposed to platoon at designated hitter while Baldelli took most of the field reps. So where does the team go from here? Apparently Hinske is an option, as are non-roster invitees Jon Weber and John Rodriguez. It seems the team is being proactive about the situation, offering Kenny Lofton a contract (which he declined) before they must settle on a career Triple-A player without great success in Weber or limited success in Rodriguez. Some other names being tossed around include St. Louis right fielder Skip Schumaker, Anaheim outfielders Juan Rivera and Reggie Willits, and Indians outfielder David Dellucci.

5. You mean the Rays have to pitch too?

To state the obvious: If Scott Kazmir’s injury requires missing a long stretch, this whole season is a bust. It appears that Kazmir will miss the first time through the rotation, leaving James Shields, Matt Garza, Andrew Sonnanstine, Jason Hammel and Edwin Jackson as the opening day rotation, the latter two of whom really don’t belong on a major league team. Jeff Niemann is a stone's throw from getting a chance to start every fifth day.

The bullpen is likely average with the additions of closer Troy Percival and Trever Miller to go with a resurgent Dan Wheeler, older Al Reyes, and the rather unfortunately locked-in Gary Glover. Grant Balfour, Juan Salas, Calvin Medlock and groundball flamethrower Scott Munter will be stored in Durham while Scott Dohmann and J.P. Howell figure to get the last bullpen spots.

At least the so-called “bum factor” is relatively low without the likes of Casey Fossum, Jon Switzer and Tim Corcoran. Really that’s reason enough to be optimistic about the Rays—not to mention the new hats which are, to quote the players, 'fresh," a word that can also be applied the atmosphere and clubhouse in St. Pete for the first time in ages.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> R.J. Anderson 2008-03-27T04:30:15+00:00