http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-21T08:09:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0402/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0402/#When:09:05:15 Julio Lugo | Baltimore | 2B/SS
2009 Final Stats: .280/.352/.405
Composite Projection (in STL): .251/.323/.354 ($1 in NL league – from lastplayerpicked.com)

Julio Lugo has had a somewhat underappreciated career. From batting 3rd in Lou Piniella's lineup with the woeful Devil Rays, to signing with Boston and being called “the 3rd-best shortstop in all baseball” by a Red Sox staffer at the time, to being fodder for Ned Colletti antagonism as the he was traded for “megaprospect” Joel Guzman during the Dodgers playoff push of 2006. Well, he had his knee rebuilt last year, and his career-long history of being an average defensive shortstop who could hit a little bit came to an end. He still hit – anytime a middle infielder can post a .350 OBP and steal some bases, that's an asset – but at 34, his ability to again perform at the elite level required of a major-league middle infielder is very much in question.

For fantasy purposes, all that matters is how much he'll play. Obviously, the big factor here will be whether gritty Brian Roberts is too damaged to play 155+ games, as he has each of the past three seasons. And Lugo – questionable knee and all – will likely see time at shortstop. Cesar Izturis hasn't shown the ability to play a lot of games, and he can't hit, and the Orioles will be trailing a lot, opening up opportunities for Lugo to pinch hit and stay in the game. This writer is in two AL-only leagues, and will be placing a claim on him in one (futile, since we go in reverse order of 2009 finish), and dedicating some valuable FAAB dollars to him in the league which was written up two weeks ago. The composite batting projection above is flawed in that Lugo has always hit when healthy – not like Derek Jeter, but well enough – and the $1 value increases in the 12-of-14 context in the AL, compared to 12-of-16 in the NL. Oh, and it's entirely reasonable to expect some of his speed skills to rebound as the injury is further behind him.

Will Michael Brantley Steal A Job? ... (Icon/SMI)

Fausto Carmona | Cleveland | SP
2009 Final Stats: 5.7 K/9, 1.13 K:BB, 6.32 ERA
LIPS ERAs (2006-2009): 4.75, 4.27, 5.64, 5.42
2010 Composite Projections: (bad)

Like Francisco Liriano a few weeks ago, Carmona is a player who needs to be evaluated on scouting reports, not on stats. There's no way to make his 2008-2009 performance into anything good. It was utter [anagram for “hits”], and hits were something he was familiar with. But in spring training, he's looked like his devastating 2007 self again - walking just 2 batters in 26.0 innings, and watching grounder after grounder turn into outs with Jhonny Peralta no longer playing shortstop. The LIPS scores may slightly under-rate his 2007 performance, but it's good to keep in mind that his 3.06 ERA that season did involve significant luck, and he's probably closer to a 4.00 ERA pitcher at his best. Cleveland should put enough runs on the board to get lots of wins for a guy like that, since he also piles up innings with his efficient style. Again, a reminder that these are best-case scenarios, and his 2008 and 2009 seasons did happen, and it's not unlikely that whatever haunted him the past two years will again undermine his present success. But for a waiver-wire or late-round pickup, he has the potential to pay enormous dividends.

In a flashback, two players who were called up last September and reviewed in this space, one of whom just made the squad, and should make a great waiver wire pickup, the other who was certainly taken on draft day, but might be cheap in a trade. From 9/4/2009:

Michael Brantley | Cleveland | OF
YTD: .400/.455/.400
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Brantley was 46-5 in stolen base attempts at AAA. Essentially, that's all that needs to be said about him, but it's also nice that he doesn't strike out, with a Ct% near 90% in Triple-A. Just pretend his Triple-A batting average says .310, since there's no way his stats support a continued .288 BABIP. He has a GB% of 49%, LD% of 21%, bats lefty, has speed to burn, and the aforementioned Ct%. His great speed reportedly hasn't translated into good defense, which could take a bite out of his playing time going forward, but we expect Eric Wedge to get a long look for himself in September. Should be worth 1-1.5 SB/week.

Wade Davis | Tampa Bay | SP
YTD: 7.9 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 3.40 ERA (AAA)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
If you lost track along the way, this is Entry No. 932 in the Rays' Endless Stream of Studly Starters. Davis will get the ball Sunday, and should be claimed in formats where young players can be kept. As far as how good he'll be, he's probably on a par with Tillman and Matusz of Baltimore, but has the advantage of facing the O's instead of the Rays. Only mess with him for 2009 if you are desperate, and/or you have an awful pitcher active who needs to be replaced.


Michael Brantley | Cleveland | OF
2009 Final Stats: .280/.352/.405
Composite Projection: .271/.345/.346 266 AB ($9 in AL-only)

... or will he come up short?(Icon/SMI)

As MLB.com notes, “GOODYEAR, Ariz. -- The Indians purchased Michael Brantley's ticket to Triple-A Columbus the day they signed Russell Branyan to a one-year, $2 million contract last month. The plan was to have Matt LaPorta in left field, Branyan at first and Brantley doing his time with the Clippers. “ Brantley posted a terrific .431 OBP in spring training, though he was just 2-3 on stolen base attempts. He has top-tier speed, and as long as he's in the majors, it's unlikely he'll be riding the bench. This is one of the highest-risk players in the AL right now, due to the question marks about his playing time. But he'll be a legitimate fantasy force if and when he manages to secure full-time work. As a natural center-fielder, he may not be a great fit for Cleveland, but if Juan Pierre can earn a starting LF job, anything is possible.

Wade Davis is only mentioned as a reminder. With his less-than-stellar spring and daunting divisional rivals, it may be easy to write him off entirely, but he could be an above-average starting pitcher this year, though it may take him a couple months to settle in.

Chris Getz | Kansas City | 2B
2009 Final Stats: ..261/.324/.347
Composite Projection: .277/..339/.370, 405 AB ($10 in AL-only)

Getz is another light-hitting player whose fantasy value is tied up in his speed. When the trade was made to KC, it appeared he was buried behind the much harder-hitting Alberto Callaspo. But the inscrutable Trey Hillman announced that Getz was his second baseman at the beginning of spring training, and Callaspo's injuries have just solidified the role for the speedy Getz. As posted at Baseball Daily Digest on February 14 (As Good as it Getz - http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/2010/02/14/as-good-as-it-getz/ ), it seems reasonable to expect Getz to post Juan Pierre numbers and play average defense at second base. With marginal hitters like Getz, there's always the danger that he'll slip out of the starting job, but if he stays somewhere around .340/.370, as projected, he should be fine. It's not like the Royals have Gordon Beckham looking to take his position away.

C.J. Wilson | Texas | SP
2009 Final Stats: 10.3 K/9, 2.63 K:BB, 2.81 ERA
LIPS ERAs (2006-2009): 4.03, 4.36, 4.81, 3.46
2010 Composite Projections: 3.79 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, $9.

C.J. Wilson Delivers for the Rangers (Icon/SMI)

When he threw strikes in 2009, C.J. Wilson was utterly dominant, holding opposing hitters to a meager .234/.325/.326 batting line. He continued his career-long trend of being much better against lefty batters (.195/.291/.286 in his career, an outstanding line, compared to an ugly .281/.367/.430 line vs. righties in his career), but was so good overall that he was still effective (.249/.329/.373 vsR). All this is especially important for him, as he embarks on a journey into the treacherous waters known as “Rangers starting pitching”. We're going to advise much caution with C.J. Expect shorter outings than most SP, and less-than-typical run support, especially with Kinsler being dinged. That will make him only marginally more valuable than a great setup reliever, and in facing more righties his ratios can be expected to rise to levels which are barely helpful.

I am not one for long goodbyes, but I'd be remiss to not thank the great folks at The Hardball Times for the opportunity to participate in THT Fantasy. Most especially, however, I'd like to thank you, the readers. Knowing that there are people out there who love the games of baseball and fantasy baseball as much as I do and are willing to spend part of their week reading my work is what motivates me. I'm humbled and thankful to you all!

Rob McQuown is a lifetime Cubs fan, longtime SABR member, and former STATS, Inc. employee. He also writes for Baseball Daily Digest and other sites and can be reached via email (robmcquown@yahoo.com; baseball email is always welcome) and followed on Twitter (robmcquown).


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Rob McQuown 2010-04-02T09:05:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-al-0319/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-offseason-al-0319/#When:08:00:15 Baseball Daily Digest.

Nick Swisher in Spring Training (Icon/SMI)

It's not an excuse, in the sense that I knew the draft was coming a month ago, but I was only able to take about 60 minutes to prepare, and—despite that—I thought I was in great shape after taking Neftali Feliz, as having $53 remaining put me almost in control of the auction as people had been splurging early. Sure, I was pitching-heavy, but I was set to grab some guys I thought would hit well and be underpriced, such as Daric Barton, Travis Hafner, Carlos Guillen, and Magglio Ordonez. Instead, I made a rookie mistake and got into late-auction bidding wars on a couple players who were replaceable, Scott Downs and Nick Swisher. I was trying to handcuff my Jason Frasor position as best as possible, and I think Swisher will be great this year, but the inflation in the draft at that point meant that I shouldn't have been paying more than 65% for anyone.

Here is my draft, with the "Value" column coming from the convenient $ valuator at lastplayerpicked.com, using combined projections:



Having discussed the land mine I stepped on, here are some things I think I did do well:

1. Pitching is budgeted at 30% (approximately) in most drafts, due mostly to the fact that it's amazingly unpredictable. I feel like I invested in three pitchers who are among the least likely to crater: Felix, with that park and defense supporting his amazing skills; Papelbon, with more than his share of easy saves available, due to Boston getting big leads more than most teams; and Lackey, for the run support he'll receive in Boston.

2. Aaron Hill—I've reviewed Hill in this column in the past, and discussed his power/contact combination, and how he's similar to Aramis Ramirez in that regard. The lack of walks may hurt the Blue Jays, but I think the typical projections—which put him around 20 HR—are pessimistic.

3. Asdrubal Cabrera—Usually, I like taking a 2B/SS type early so that I have flexibility, but I already had Hill in this case, so there's no excuse. Except that he hits really well for a shortstop.

4. Brendan Harris—Sure, he's not very good, but he's slated to be the starting third baseman for the Twins.

5. da Aza—Don't ask. I figured that I'd need some $1 guys eventually, and didn't have a nominee queued up. But he's young, and probably has more core ability than Juan Pierre, and is crushing the ball in spring training, so you never know.

Anyway, it was a long draft, and it's NCAA Tourney time (except for Georgetown). Here's the league link; happy to field questions: FantasyPros911.com Expert League

Rob McQuown is a lifetime Cubs fan, longtime SABR member, and former STATS, Inc. employee. He also writes for Baseball Daily Digest and other sites and can be reached via email (; baseball email is always welcome) and followed on Twitter (robmcquown).


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Rob McQuown 2010-03-19T08:00:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0312/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0312/#When:08:00:15 Kouzmanoff Catching Flies (Icon/SMI)
Kevin Kouzmanoff | Oakland | 3B
2009 Final Stats: .255/.302/.420
2010 THT Projections:: .266/.311/.447

Using the new handy-dandy tool to visualize batter hit distribution in an alternate park, it doesn't appear that Kevin Kouzmanoff will benefit much from Oakland Coliseum.

Feel free to give the tool a try and see the key for the various colors as well, but suffice it to say that blue is good. The lack of ballpark aid really doesn't come as a big surprise, and he'll further be facing Felix Hernandez better American League pitching as well. At least his career Interleague stats are robust (.309/.344/.559), and he's hit well in the Coliseum (14 PA, 1.000 OPS), but he won't get to feast on Oakland pitching anymore (.348/.400/.522). He's not a high-walk player, so he'll rack up lots of at-bats, and while that should be somewhat neutral in bigger leagues, it's something to watch out for if he's snagged as a cheap power source in shallow leagues.

Jason Frasor | Toronto | RP
2009 Final Stats: 8.7 K/9, 3.5 K/BB, 2.50 ERA
LIPS ERAs (2006-2009): 4.22, 4.01, 5.44, 3.62
2010 THT Projections: 8.1 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.80 ERA

We gave a rosy prediction for him to have a 1-in-3 chance to keep the closer's role after the season, and he kept pitching very well and the Jays upped it to “50-50”, but then brought in Gregg. We are pretty sure that Gregg will get first crack at closing, with Downs and Frasor picking up scraps based on matchups. Tough division, bad team, some good pitchers vying for saves, and it all adds up to Frasor being an unappealing pick at this point, despite the great arm.

Scott Podsednik | Kansas City | LF
2009 Final Stats: .304/.349/.412
2010 THT Projections:: .271/.325/.363, 16 SB

At the risk of over-editorializing, Scott Podsednik is the sort of player who gives fantasy sports a bad name among any right-thinking Sabermetrician. Even if you think standard valuations undervalue speed (which this author believes, though things have improved in recent years), the outs that “Pods” racks up on the basepaths drive everyone from Ozzie Guillen to Ken Harrellson to John Dewan crazy (we're guessing, since we didn't track Mr. Dewan down and ask him). And he can't hit. And his throwing arm is terrible. And he's not nearly as rangy as his speed would suggest. [steps down off soapbox...] Anyway, the steals projection is low, as Podsednik will likely approach his 30 SB from 2009 again if he manages to hit enough to stay in the lineup, though it's easy to understand why a projection system would assume that his manager would be smart enough to give him the red light more often. We're going to bank on the light staying green, however, and he should be a cheap source of steals.

David Dejesus | Kansas City | LF
2009 Final Stats: .281/.347/.434
2010 THT Projections:: .271/.337/.404, 2 SB

Dejesus is moving to RF, and the Royals are hoping his back problems are a thing of the past. He attempted 13 steals last year, so expect him to get more than 2 SB this season, even if it means a lot of outs ... see Pods commentary. It also wouldn't be shocking to see him exceed his projection, as his career stat line is .286/.358/.425 and he was playing hurt for most of 2009 and is just entering his age-30 season.

Luke Scott | Baltimore | DH/OF/1B
2009 Final Stats: .258/.340/.488
2010 THT Projections:: .248/.330/.458

Scott has big-time power, as can be seen from his ISO and projected ISO. He's popped 48 HR in the past two seasons, playing only about 2/3 of the time. While people will say that spring training stats don't count, Felix Pie's spring training stats have to be considered to count against Luke Scott at this point, as he's a much better defender than Nolan Reimold, who would end up as the primary DH if Pie wins the job. For now, Luke has a hold on another 2/3 of a season (vs. righties), but it's tenuous. Not for the shallow (leagues) or the faint (of heart).

Delmon Young | Minnesota | LF
2009 Final Stats: .284/.308/.425
2010 THT Projections:: .289/.323/.421

Delmon Young is being drafted in barely 10% of mock drafts. This is a serious mistake in judgment unless your league uses OBP, and even then it's unlikely to be wise to disregard him.

Check Out Delmon Young (Icon/SMI)

We won't pretend he's going to be a superstar still; he was always overrated as this author has pointed out since his minor-league days. But he's still a talented hitter whose power should improve as he matures. He's been healthy over the years, and Gomez won't be around to push Span over to LF this year. He posted full-season highs in ISO and FB% in 2009. While he's not a particularly valuable MLB player, fantasy ball is primarily about playing time, and Delmon rates to be useful in fantasy leagues. Not worth more than a very late pick pick, since he's not being drafted in most leagues, but worth rostering.

Shaun Marcum
2009 Final Stats: (played in minors – 15.2 IP)
LIPS ERAs (2006-2008): 4.97, 4.24, 4.21
2010 THT Projections: 7.1 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 3.79 ERA

Shaun Marcum has been cleared medically, and looks healthy. He's slated—somewhat shockingly—to start opening day and is being taken in only 12.8% of mock drafts. Here's what we wrote on July 17, none of which has really changed: “Marcum is a strike-thrower (99 BB in 310 IP in 07/08) who allows too many home runs to be a truly top-notch starter. Don't expect much ERA help, and the IP should be low as he's coming off an injury, but he could be a nice boost for WHIP in any format and pick up a few wins. “

Quick hits:

Carlos Santana | Cleveland | C
2009 Final Stats: .290/.413/.530
2010 THT Projections:: .243/.338/.422

Probably not worth it for 2010, though AL-only 2-catcher leagues would make for enough positional scarcity to consider the upside.

Austin Jackson | Detroit | CF
2009 Final Stats: .300/.354/.405 (AAA)
2010 THT Projections:: .254/.308/.366 – 9 SB

Austin Jackson gets scouts excited a lot more than Statheads, but few in either camp think he'll be ready to do much in 2010. Detroit is a tough ballpark, and the lineup rates to be weak; look elsewhere.

Rob McQuown is a lifetime Cubs fan, longtime SABR member, and former STATS, Inc. employee. He also writes for Baseball Daily Digest and other sites and can be reached via email (; baseball email is always welcome) and followed on Twitter (robmcquown).


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Rob McQuown 2010-03-12T08:00:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0305/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0305/#When:08:00:15
Derek Holland | Texas | SP
2009 Final Stats: 7.0 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 6.12 ERA
LIPS ERAs (2009): 4.81


In analyzing pitchers, especially ones who are coming off bad years, there is almost always conflicting data. Holland was downright miserable from Aug. 14 onward: 3-6, 8.18 ERA, 31 K, 17 BB, 12 (yes, 12) HR in 47.1 IP. Batting line against was .321/.382/.592. Anyone who saw him during that stretch would take some convincing to believe he actually has a future as a good fantasy pitcher. Then again, before the 2009 season, BA's Prospect Handbook had him ranked No. 2, behind the amazing Neftali Feliz and ahead of guys like Andrus and Smoak. On Aug. 14, he was coming off some spectacular wins against some bad offensive teams, and we were convinced that he was for real, and ready to be at least a “solid” starting pitcher.

Worse still, the various “stuff” (or “peripherals”) metrics don't agree at all about how well Holland actually pitched in 2009. The gun had him at 92.5 average for his fastballs. That much is known with some certainty. And his “velo” wasn't down in September, as he averaged 92.7 mph on Sept. 6, nearly touching 95 (94.9) on one pitch. His changeup and slider (his 2a and 2b pitches) have good separation, coming in about 8-11 mph slower. Neither scouting nor Pitch F/X have indicated that his fastball has become “flat,” rather that it's still showing good movement. Many experts are predicting a good year for him. And xFIP agrees with them, normalizing the BABIP and HR/FB% to indicate that he should have had a fine 4.34 ERA in 2009. BUT ... Fangraphs.com's preferred pitching metric, tERA, is closer to his real ERA, at 5.46. And LIPS, which we like at THT for it's strong historical correlations to reality, splits the difference at 4.81.

We love the left side of the Rangers' defense (where many balls should go with Holland pitching), and believe in the Rangers' vision for their pitching. We think that it's very likely that Holland will grow in confidence as he watches hard-hit balls routinely turned into outs by Andrus, Young, and whoever plays left field (Hamilton, Murphy, Cruz can all pick it). We also like the idea of facing the other three teams in the AL West frequently. The Angels scored a lot in 2009, but with Chone in Seattle, Godzilla replacing Vlad, and some of the other guys having years which suggest some slippage in 2010, it seems possible that all three division rivals may be below average in run scoring. So, we'd trust the stuff to some extent. The worry points are that as badly as he was being hammered late in 2009, he could have been hiding an injury or tipping his pitches. For now, we're going with the “inexperience” theory; he only had 26 innings in Double-A before 2009. But he's still relatively inexperienced, so some bad (read: “ugly”) outings wouldn't be a shock, and Texas is still his home park, so we're not talking Cliff Lee here.

Alexei Ramirez | Chicago | SS
2009 Final Stats: .277/.333/.389


Off topic, but Eric Seidman Tweeted Thursday that “Tanner Scheppers threw one pitch 132 mph, and Chris Carter hit a 725-foot home run off of it. Only Heyward leapt 100 ft to snare it.” While this was commentary on the hyperbole frequently used in Spring Training reports, it brought to mind the sort of nonsense that has been spewed out of airwaves and all over print media in Chicagoland regarding Alexei Ramirez, starting from about the time he arrived in town. In 2008, he was this amazing young superstar, who, after a slow start, was tearing up the league—ending with 21 HR in 480 AB, and being clearly better at shortstop than the incumbent, Orlando Cabrera (at least according to many accounts, including all the announcers who weren't reluctant to point it out). That was 2008.

Alexei Ramirez - Sox Shortstop (Icon/SMI)

Then came 2009, and the slow start wasn't expected. After all, he'd proven himself in 2008. Then came “Golden” Gordon Beckham, who may have one scout convinced he can play shortstop at the MLB level ... provided, of course, that he has a dog named “Scout.” But he didn't make those stupid-looking plays on April 24; that was Alexei. And the way he's battering Double-A pitchers, it's clear that he'll out-hit Alexei too. Well, the last part was true, as Beckham truly is a phenomenal talent, but from June 4 (when Beckham debuted), Ramirez hit .290/.350/.419. For the season, his “awful defense” (seriously, you have to read/watch/listen to the “journalists” in this town to believe how often this mantra is repeated) resulted in a 2.4 UZR/150. That means that after having not played shortstop regularly for four years, Alexei Ramirez was better than an average MLB shortstop defensively (per UZR). GM Kenny Williams “had his back” in November, too, stating flat-out that he was staying at shortstop, "because Alexei is better than Gordon at short.” Like Kenny, we expect the throwing errors to drop in 2010, as he gains experience at the position. Frankly, given the sub-par defensive stats Alexei posted at second base in 2008, White Sox fans should have been outright exuberant about his defensive performance. It's not like anyone can tell the difference between a .969 fielding percentage (Alexei 2009) and a .972 fielding percentage (AL average).

That's a lot of talk about defense for a fantasy column, of course. We wanted to drive home the point that Alexei Ramirez is the White Sox shortstop, beyond any possibility of confusion, however. As a hitter, he evokes images of Shawon Dunston, and his age-26/age-27 seasons have resulted in OPS+ scores of 103 and 87, compared to 100 and 87 for Dunston at the same ages. He's still very undisciplined, but there's no reason he won't grow more in that area than Dunston did, so some growth can be expected, and a league-average hitter playing in U.S. Cellular as a shortstop is a nice fantasy asset, especially if he is a low-OBP guy (walks don't help in most fantasy leagues) and has a little speed—“The Cuban Missile” has more speed than his modest SB and triples totals indicate, which suggests that he should keep stealing about 15 bases per year. Given his limited U.S. experience, we expect more from him at age 28 than we would from other players, and think he's a very solid fantasy option for 2010.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Texas | C
2009 Final Stats: .233/.290/.371


This author made Jarrod Saltalamacchia a pick in the Baseball Daily Digest “Dream Draft” before the 2009 season, wherein 12 baseball experts from various sites drafted 10 players they wanted for 2009-2014 performance. Fast forward to Thursday, when he went 2-for-3 with a three-run homer to kick off the spring festivities, and all is on track for this young, up-and-coming star catcher, right?

Nice thought, except for this thing called “reality.” Thoracic Outlet Syndrome diagnoses can vary widely in terms of long-term effects. At any level, it's about as welcome in a catcher's medical report as a labrum tear for a pitcher. In some ways, the worse news for prospective Salty owners (and the Rangers) is that he wasn't showing nearly the hoped-for offensive growth even before the injury, though it has to be assumed that the shoulder was bothering him long before he went out.

We have cautious optimism about Salty at this point, even in the face of all the negative events. He is a gifted hitter, as catchers go. He plays in Texas, and they seem committed to making him the starter. He hits enough that he could pick up some AB at 1B or DH. But he does combine unproven offense with the playing time issues of a Mike Napoli (i.e., even less than the typical catcher). We wouldn't suggest passing on any good players to take him, but Saltalamacchia playing in Texas could probably provide more fantasy value than Rob Johnson in Seattle ... even if he batted one-handed.

Heater Magazine has begun publishing its daily report of box scores, The Rundown. Don't miss a box score today, this weekend, or any day for the rest of the season. Subscribers to Heater receive a nifty little PDF via email (in Spring Training, it's usually sent in the evening after the games). This perk lasts through the regular season and the playoffs. Get a free issue of The Rundown here.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Rob McQuown 2010-03-05T08:00:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0226/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0226/#When:08:00:15 Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland | SS (+2B)
2009 Final Stats: .308/.361/.438


If the Indians hadn't spent the first two months digging their graves, and the rest of the season lying in them, Asdrubal Cabrera's first full season would have gotten more attention, as he ramped up his all-around offensive game significantly while making an in-season position shift from second base to shortstop. He reversed his bias toward hitting LHP, hitting .311/.364/.456 while batting lefty. He showed great basestealing skills, going 17-for-21, easily the best he'd done at any level besides his 2007 in Double-A (23-for-30 in 425 PA). He mashed 42 doubles and four triples to go with his six homers. Overall, he had the seventh-best wOBA among MLB shortstops in 2009!

Asdrubal Against Minnesota (Icon/SMI)

It may be for the best that Asdrubal is getting out of the danger zone that is second base. He wrestled with knee, hamstring, and elbow issues in 2009, and had minor surgery to clean out his elbow after the season. Reducing the plays on which runners are trying to do him harm has to be to his advantage. And he has plenty of range and arm to play shortstop, by all indications. In just over 1,000 innings played at shortstop, his UZR is below average, but MLB average for a shortstop is very rangy, and the Indians have every reason to believe that he will improve his defensive statistics with a steady position, as opposed to changing back and forth between the two middle infield spots. Besides, he has the luxury of following Peralta, who has very limited range at shortstop, so the bar will be set pretty low at first.

2010 will see Cabrera's BABIP decline from the unreasonably high perch at .360, but his seasonal age will be just 24 years old, and some maturation can be expected. He wouldn't really help his game by trying to hit more homers, but expect at least a handful of that copious batch of 2009 doubles to turn into homers in 2010. In what should be a quietly potent lineup, he should have ample run production, regardless of his lineup slot, which is currently slated to be No. 2 again.

The Emperor Awaits his AL East foes... (Icon/SMI)

Kevin Youkilis | Boston | 3B/1B
2009 Final Stats: .305/.413/.548


In Sabermetric scoring systems or sim games, Kevin Youkilis really shines. He's been seventh in WAR in the AL each of the past two years, and—despite playing a position where offense is plentiful—is just a notch behind the top dogs like Mauer, A-Rod, Longoria. Without stealing bases, hitting homers, or racking up 650 AB (in addition to nagging injuries such as back spasms limiting him to around 600 PA, his walks drag down the AB total—and the value of his batting average—somewhat), he's not going to excel in many 5x5 categories, though runs and RBI should continue to be ultra-strong, totaling near the 200 mark. And being 3B-qualified really amps up his relative value for 2010. While there's always a nagging fear that he's playing over his head (he slugged just .439 in his lengthy minor-league career and .453 was his high before 2008), he's not really a huge HR guy even slugging .550, so his value wouldn't drop too much if his slugging fell below .500. CHONE projects him at .473, and the Fans at .532, we'll split the difference and suggest he'll check in around .500. Don't pay for his 2009 levels, but don't fear much of a decline, either.

Nick Markakis | Baltimore | OF
2009 Final Stats: .293/.347/.453


The helium seems to have drained out of the fast-rising Markakis baloon in 2009. Strat-O-Matic players may not have noticed, since he still womped RHP (.312/.376/.504) and got his “1” (the best) range rating on defense. But his +/- and UZR fielding metrics collapsed (-5.8 fielding runs on Fangraphs), and his overall batting line represented a sharp decline from his stellar 2008 season, which, in turn, was a step up from a very good 2007 campaign. So, what's to come in 2010? Is he on the Ben Grieve Death Spiral? Is the .262/.305/.376 batting line against LHP a sign of future platoondom? Will he remain anchored at first base after swiping 18 bags in 2007?

In one of those ultra-imprecise judge-from-a-distance verdicts, our short answers to the above are that we think Markakis will be just fine as a hitter because he was mostly just fatigued in 2009 ... with a few caveats. His fade at the end of the season came after a long (bad) season for the O's, and he was at .306/.358/.481 on August 29. Facing the tough pitching of the top AL East teams down the stretch didn't help, but even the Indians got him out in September. As for his speed and fielding, we don't have any good reason to expect those to return to form. The bunting he's been working on—as noted by Heater e-Magazine Orioles expert Brian Joseph (though it didn't make the cut for this week's edition)—isn't likely to help his value any, either in real life or in fantasy leagues. Player statistics show variance, and Markakis' 2008 was buoyed by a .350 BABIP, and his .317 BABIP in 2009 was probably lower than expected, assuming he's retained some of his once-good speed. So, entering his age-26 season, coming off a “down” year, we can certainly expect some rebound ... just don't expect him to vault right back up to the curve he'd been on pre-2009.

Here is a 16-page preview of Graphical Player 2010. Acta Sports is currently SOLD OUT. Until they publish more, the book can be ordered through major booksellers.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Rob McQuown 2010-02-26T08:00:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0219/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0219/#When:08:00:15 Scott Kazmir | Los Angeles | SP
2009 Final Stats: 7.1 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 4.89 ERA
LIPS ERAs (2006-2009): 3.66, 3.56, 3.71, 4.40



First the bad news: Kazmir's K/9 rate has dropped annually since posting 11.4 K/9 in 2007. Worse, he went from 7.4 to 6.4 after his move to LA from TB. Through 2008, he averaged 9.7 K/9, so he was entering 2009 with sky-high expectations for 2009, as he was still just 25 years old. Of course, all the various “stuff” metrics, such as FIP and its descendents (LIPS being the current front-runner), suffered mightily. These are all highly reliant on the strikeout rate, to the point where it can obscure the other factors of a pitcher's skill set.

Scott Kazmir 2009 (Icon/SMI)

Let's consider those "other factors" of Kazmir's skill set. First off, he's never thrown overwhelmingly hard, though in his first year—as a rookie trying to impress—his fastball averaged 93.7 mph for his eight games (seven starts). After that, he posted 92.6 in his second season, and hasn't topped 92.1 since. Well, he dropped down to 90.7 as a Ray in 2009. Of course, he faced tougher opposition than most pitchers while on Tampa Bay, as well—.763 OPS average for opponents (courtesy of baseballprospectus.com). And he was wasn't fooling these good hitters at all. His brutal 5.92 ERA as a member of the Rays was worse than his ERA estimators, but those were all bad as well, even his tERA (4.65 in TB), which isn't dependent upon K/9, except in as much as strikeouts are a very “rewarding” event since there isn't any chance for anything good happening.

So, who is this guy who showed up in Cali after seemingly forgetting how to pitch in Florida? His velocity suddenly returned, with an average fastball velocity of 92.5 mph. His tERA was a killer 2.70, even if his “stuff”-based metrics didn't seem “ace-like” (his LIPS in LA was 3.83, while his xFIP was 4.79). Part of his success can be attributed to facing lesser opponents; getting Seattle (twice), Oakland, and Chicago among his six starts led to an average opponent OPS of .730, but carving up .730-OPS-level MLB hitters like he did is still impressive ... even if his K/9 didn't rebound to levels he'd reached in previous seasons.

As with the Liriano summary, the only really important information here is probably that he was healthy and had his velocity back. This is a guy who has a proven track record of knowing how to get batters out when he has his good stuff. Escaping the clutches of the AL East can only help him. Neither Seattle nor Oakland appears to be very interested in scoring runs, and while he's not Mark Buehrle, he's created about as many outs (29 CS and 25 PkOff) in his career as he's allowed stolen bases (50 SB total). That's important with the speed in the division. Further, Texas isn't the same offensive powerhouse it was recently, with none of their batter projections ranking in the top 50 by wOBA using CHONE (thanks to fangraphs.com); and if Borbon makes the lineup, the Rangers would have two elite speed guys as well. In conclusion, we're as bullish about Kazmir as is possible for a guy who's coming off a 4.89 ERA season. He's unlikely to ever rack up tons of innings, but should be high-impact when he pitches.

Rich Harden | Texas | SP
2009 Final Stats: 10.9 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 4.09 ERA
LIPS ERAs (2006-2009): 2006-7: 3.84, 2008: 3.26, 2009: 3.50



This author will start off by suggesting a well-written THT article by fellow Cubs fan Harry Pavlidis as a must read.

Jim Hendry said he was looking for 25 games in 2009 from Harden, and the “rest on occasion” strategy Lou Piniella used eked 26 starts out of the fragile righty. Of course, that was only good for 141 innings, and Cubs management was clear that the pressure of having such a limited-playing-time pitcher was the primary reason for not bringing him back in 2010 despite his good contributions to the Cubs.

Mr. Pavlidis begins: “The scope of most Rich Harden articles usually ends up including his gaudy whiff rates...”, and then proceeds to discuss other important aspects of Harden's performance. At the risk of being shallow, we'll happily jump into the “most articles” camp and rave about those K's. But 2009 showed something which had previously seemed impossible—Harden was uninjured and not great. Even with his average fastball velocity dropping to 92 mph over 2008-2009, Harden is one of those pitchers who makes everyone around stop and watch when he's pitching; his “stuff” is so terrific. Batters shake their heads, pitchers drool with envy, and opposing managers start wondering how they are going to scratch out a run or two and when they will be able force him out of the game.

We'll unabashedly suggest that Harden will be great in 2010 primarily because he's still fanning batters at a “striking” rate. Add to that the unsustainable 15% HR/FB% he suffered in 2009, the popgun offenses in the AL West, and the fact that his quick move to home makes him good at preventing steals compared to other righties. Top that off with Pavlidis' conclusion that the Andrus/Kinsler tandum and a return to “normal” luck should pare down his BABIP, and there's every reason to expect him to perform at an ace-like level again in 2010...

… until he gets hurt.

Julio Borbon | Texas | OF
2009 Final Stats: .312/.376/.414



In a Jan. 22 comment, I put off writing about speed-burner Julio Borbon with this comment:

As a brief preview, I can tell you my initial take on Borbon is that his roto value will be based almost entirely on playing time, and he seems to be just good enough—or bad enough—that spring training could have a big role in determining his first-half PT. If he plays, he’s a force. A knee-jerk projection would be something slightly better than Bourn’s first season in Houston. I may put him off a couple weeks in the hope that maybe some more clues to the OF situation in Texas arise.

Wednesday, Derek Ambrosino discussed the generalities of this type of high-risk player, using Borbon as an example.

Julio Borbon—on the fast track (Icon/SMI)

Sean Smith has incorporated TotalZone for minor leaguers, and CHONE projects a 10-run savings as a 500-AB CF (approximately; it's really 14 runs as a 518-AB side outfielder, but he's slated to play CF). Obviously, the “error bars” on any projection based on such potentially specious data are going to be huge, but there's no good reason to presume he won't be an above-average defender. His job security will come down to his bat. CHONE thinks he will do quite well, projecting .297/.349/.400. Heater e-Magazine (heatermagazine.com) Rangers expert Joey Matschulat has projected him to lead off against both LHP and RHP, based on a combination of team statements and expected success.

So, what's not to like? Well, either of Nelson Cruz or Josh Hamilton is able to play center field. The team clearly does not want this to happen, and will probably try swapping Andrus and Borbon in the lineup at the first sign of struggles. But it's safe to say that if Borbon isn't hitting by June, the team will take other measures (think 2009 Jordan Schafer in Atlanta), either playing one of their corner guys out of position in CF or making a deal.

Counting stolen base opportunities (SBO) the way baseball-reference.com does, his rate of SBO/PA was about what could be expected given his OBP, at .43, but a lot of that is dependent on what the batters do behind him. Brian Roberts (.356 OBP and a goodly number of extra-base hits) was .38 in 2009, higher than it had been in previous years when his OBP was higher. Jeter, with his .406 OBP, was .58. If Borbon's OBP is reduced to the projected .350 level in 2010, that will offset the advantages of leading off. Bundled all together, he's very likely to have between 250-300 SBO in 2010. If he's allowed to run as often as in 2009 and is successful at a similar rate (he had 19 SB in just 77 SBO), that's upwards of 60 steals! Of course, it would be unwise to rely on some of these assumptions. Given that his peak SB season in the minors was 53 in 594 PA, it's clear he was getting more opportunities against some of the easier batteries in 2009 (the four steals he had in five AB against Carl Pavano—33-6 opponent SB-CS against in 2009—jump out from scanning his BvP stats, for example). But we'd say that CHONE's 35-SB projection is very conservative, and with a full allotment of playing time, he'll sail beyond the 40-SB mark.

Matt LaPorta | Cleveland | OF/1B
2009 Final Stats: .254/.308/.442



Elvis Andrus | Texas | SS
2009 Final Stats: .267/.329/.373



Ryan Rowland-Smith | Seattle | SP
LIPS ERAs (2007-2009): 3.93, 4.42, 4.32




Here is a 16-page preview of Graphical Player 2010. Acta Sports is currently SOLD OUT. Until they publish more, the book can be ordered through major booksellers.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Rob McQuown 2010-02-19T08:00:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0212/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0212/#When:08:00:15 Elvis Andrus | Texas | SS
2009 Final Stats: .267/.329/.373

Who says defense doesn't count? (Icon/SMI)

We'll give ourselves a bit of a “pat on the back” for predicting that Andrus wouldn't slip from his early July levels when many thought he would. But the harder question is estimating the amount of growth he will show in 2010. It seems like a safe bet that if he's a dedicated worker, he'll eventually improve his offensive game, given the clearly remarkable hand-eye coordination and body control he has.

On the one hand, his 82 OPS+ was identical to that of The Wizard back in '78, but Ozzie was 23 that year, compared to just 20 for Andrus. Ozzie collapsed to a pathetic 48 OPS+ the following season, and it took him four years and a move to the “old school” turf (and a manager who understood how to utilize said playing surface to its fullest) to top 80 again. Another slick-fielding shortstop—Tony Fernandez—posted an 84 OPS+ when he was 22, and quickly improved upon that. Among projection systems, most seem to think that Andrus is due for a reprise of his 2009 stats, which would be quite satisfactory to the Rangers. Somewhat surprisingly, Marcel sets the curve for Andrus expectations in 2010 at .280/.346/.410. The flaw in relying on Marcel is that—as a player who puts 55% of his balls in play on the ground—Andrus is very unlikely to follow the “typical” power growth expectations, as measured across the entire population of baseball players. Since Marcel projects growth along these curves, without considering uniqueness factors of various players (it's supposed to be a monkey, remember? “See no groundball, hear no groundball, speak no groundball...”), it lumps in Andrus' age-20 performance (6 HR, 25 2B+3B in 480 AB) with all other players.

The majority opinion certainly makes the most intuitive sense for the immediate future of Andrus, as well. It's too much of a stretch to suggest that Andrus will break the .340 OBP. So, don't expect him to be on base a lot more often than he was in 2009. He should, however, get a full complement of plate appearances and should easily top 40 SB, even playing for a manager who doesn't allow players to try to steal very often. With that in mind, lightning-fast players who put the ball on the ground a lot can rack up some great BABIPs. If Andrus switch-hit (or batted lefty), he'd be more likely to post .350 BABIPs as he did in the minors, with the step of a head start to first base. As it is, his best chance of expanding his BABIP is going to be to keep hitting extra-base hits to keep fielders honest enough for him to surprise them with bunt singles and infield choppers. In case it needed to be written, he's great on defense, and will undoubtedly get as much time as he needs to accomplish the growth in his offensive game, as did Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel before him. Unfortunately, there's no guarantee that that time will come in 2010.

Nelson Cruz | Texas | OF
2009 Final Stats: .260/.332/.524


It's not often when a hitter entering his age-29 season is projected to have stats better than both his previous season and his career line, but that's what's happened with Cruz in almost every projection system. Marcel The Monkey is “confused” by these other systems, weighing recent seasons as he does and coming up with a .261/.332/.483 batting line. But numerous other systems are predicting a .340+ OBP, with PECOTA going all the way to .363! Mock drafters over at Mock Draft Central are on board, taking him 64th in Average Draft Position, the 18th outfielder taken—ahead of roto stalwarts like Bobby Abreu and Carlos Lee. That's what happens when a guy jacks 33 HR and steals 20 bases in just 462 AB, as Cruz did in 2009.

There's a slight measure of “bad” news with Cruz. His owners will be annoyed that Ron Washington sits him against pitchers he can't handle well, but that (presumably) helps his overall rate stats somewhat and he's shown that he can be an excellent contributor with just 500 AB. The worse part is that not being valued by one's own manager is often a precursor to a trade, and Texas is a great setting for hitters. Another slight worry point is the loss of Rudy Jaramillo. Not to overstate a hitting coach's role too much, but it's hard to conceive of a way that losing Jaramillo's support could have a positive impact on Cruz.

By both reputation and stats, Cruz is a very good defensive outfielder, covering lots of range, making few errors, and throwing out lots of runners. Assuming that 2009 was an “up” year for his homers, and that he won't suddenly receive 700 PA and mash 45 HR (the pace he was on), the most likely situation for Cruz is probably a slight reduction in his rate stats (a la Marcel's projection), with his HR/SB totals increasing very slightly (or remaining the same despite more playing time), though his runs and RBI should increase with the extra PT. A .265-35-100-20 season should be considered an above-average result from Cruz in 2010, but it wouldn't be surprising at all. And his “upside” is even higher, though obviously much less likely.

Kurt Suzuki | Oakland | C
2009 Final Stats: .274/.313/.421


Has anyone noticed lately how many players on the A's fail to draw a high number of walks. And it's not like walks have become “expensive”, which would reduce the “market inefficiency” of buying them ... free agents such as Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell can attest to that fact. Anyway, Suzuki's walk total in 2009 was a paltry 28 in 614 PA, after drawing 44 in 588 the previous year. Other than that, he's a typically average MLB hitter playing in a bad park for hitters. He's good at the agility and game-calling aspects of defense and until the “youth movement” pitching rotation in 2009, he'd thrown out runners pretty well in 2008, too. Of course, 190 innings of Greg Smith can help those stats a ton (he's arguably the best pitcher at thwarting the running game active today). It's safe to say that when the pitcher holds the runner, Suzuki is capable of making accurate throws, but doesn't have the cannon arm of the top defensive catchers. And that's sort of his entire game in a nutshell ... he's “adequate” to “good” at almost every aspect of baseball, with no appreciable weaknesses (other than the evaporating walk rate); he even stole eight bases in 2009! As a fantasy pick, he's about as safe as a catcher can be—he's durable and very projectable. He's not quite a good enough hitter to force his way into DH duty unless a team is devoid of hitters like the '09 A's, but you know what you're getting. Expect a marginal improvement across the board from 2009, as he enters his age-26 season.

James Shields | Tampa Bay | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.8 K/9, 3.2 K/BB, 4.14 ERA
LIPS ERAs (2006-2009): 4.12, 3.67, 3.97, 4.05


In some ways, Shields is a “chuck and duck” pitcher like the two Twins we covered last week: Baker and Slowey. His fastball barely averages over 90 mph, and he's allowed well over 1.0 HR/9 IP while walking fewer than 2.0. If anything, he tried to be more in this mold in 2009, posting a career-high “F-Strike%” (from fangraphs.com) of over 63%, compared to his career norm of 60%. As usual for AL East pitchers, he was among the top pitchers in “opponent OPS” (courtesy of baseballprospectus.com), finishing 12th among 73 pitchers with 162+ IP (.761 OPS for his average opposing hitter). So, when Shields is able to post LIPS scores averaging under 4.00, that's more significant than Baker and Slowey doing so.

Some may worry about Shields' walk rate going up from 1.51 to 1.67 to 2.13 the past three seasons, and the trend this suggests, especially since it's dropped his K:BB rate from 5.11 to 3.21 in that span. But he's throwing with the same velocity, throwing more first-pitch strikes, and is generating about the same percentage of swings, with just as many missed swings on balls in the zone. In 2007, the contact% on swings against balls he threw outside the zone was particularly low, but his overall contact% allowed has been very consistent. In short, all his peripheral numbers point to consistency, and there's every reason to expect him to put up a season in keeping with his past three seasons ... so about a 3.80 to 3.90 ERA

Here is a 16-page preview of Graphical Player 2010. Acta Sports is currently SOLD OUT. Until they publish more, the book can be ordered through major booksellers.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Rob McQuown 2010-02-12T08:00:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0205/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0205/#When:08:00:15 Francisco Liriano | Minnesota | SP
2009 Final Stats: 8.0 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 5.80 ERA

Liriano Wasn't at his Best in 2009 (Icon/SMI)

Rotoworld.com's latest blurb - January 28 - about Liriano begins:

Francisco Liriano allowed just one hit and struck out 10 over five innings Thursday in the final game of the Dominican Winter League championship.
Liriano looked incredibly sharp, hitting 95 MPH consistently with his fastball and displaying a tight break on his slider.

Expounding on the good news further, MLB.com's Winter League stats report that he walked just 2 batters in 11.2 IP in the DWL. Now, he wasn't facing too many guys like Miguel Cabrera in the Dominican Winter League, but the “buzz” seems very much warranted with him, as he's proven in the past that when healthy he's able to mow down MLB hitters just about as easily as Winter Leaguers. Barring a reversal in spring training – either a negative health report or unexpected control problems ala Rick Ankiel or Rich Hill - we recommend being very aggressive about acquiring him for 2010. In most contexts, it's easy enough to find “filler” innings, but the subset of pitchers who are able to make an significant impact to ratio stats is very small. With the potent Twins offense behind him, he'll be a 4-category difference-maker for the innings he's able to go.

Scott Baker | Minnesota | SP
2009 Final Stats: 7.3 K/9, 3.4 K/BB, 4.36 ERA



Baker is something of a Sabermetric “sweetheart”, in that his low walks and good strikeout numbers send hearts of analysts a-fluttering, regardless of the way the numbers are broken down. GP2010 is the least bullish on him, suggesting 4.29/1.25, which are about his career norms. His LIPS ERA's the past two years have averaged about 3.90, so right in line with his composite 2008-2009 ERA. His projected ERA's using other systems likewise shows him in the 3.90 ERA range. The one concern with Baker, of course, is the high FB% and the resultant homers. The leverage these longballs create can be seen clearly between his 2008 and 2009 stats:

2008 – 7.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.4 K/BB, 1.18 WHIP, 45.8% FB%, 3.86 LIPS
2009 – 7.3 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.4 K/BB, 1.19 WHIP, 47.1% FB%, 3.93 LIPS

Yet, in 2008, his ERA was 3.45, and it rose all the way to 4.37 in 2009! Why? Well, the observant readers notice that HR/FB% wasn't included in those nearly carbon-copy stat lines (or even HR/9). And, honestly, going up from 8.5% to 9.7% doesn't sound like an immense increase. But it jacked the HR/9 up from 1.04 to 1.26.

Aside from GP2010, most projection systems seem to think Baker's HR/9 will split the difference between 2008 and 2009, and so his ERA will likely also split the difference. But an HR/FB% of 9.7 isn't particularly high. So much will depend on the new park with Baker, in fact. Despite the outdated monicker of “Homerdome” the Metrodome played like one of the better pitcher's parks in the AL for years before 2009, when it played “smaller” again. The new park design has left the center-to-right dimensions the same, including the high wall in RF (presumably NOT a “baggie” again). But – as the New Yankee Stadium's environmental factors surprised everyone - it's unknown how the weather will play at the new park. Without a good reason to assume that his HR/FB% will decline, and with Carlos Gomez no longer around to pair with Span and turn flies into outs, it's hard to find any reason to be more optimistic than GP2010 is about Baker. In most leagues, where people are reading the widely available Sabermetrically-guided projections, it's unlikely Baker will be much of a bargain.

Kevin Slowey | Minnesota | SP
2009 Final Stats: 7.4 K/9, 5.0 K/BB, 4.86 ERA



That's right, Kevin Slowey posted a 5.0 K:BB ratio! He also allowed 15 HR in 90.2 IP, and watched batters post a .352 BABIP against his junk, which must have seemed little more than batting practice to MLB hitters. That he was able to throw strikes so often with a wrist injury in 2009 is somewhat amazing, but he's expected to be fully healthy in 2010. Much of the same analysis of Baker applies to Slowey, though he's even more adept at pounding the strike zone and throws even slower – even when healthy. Don't expect him to have a .290 BABIP or a sub-.10% HR/FB%, but even at .310 and 11%, he's going to rack up a lot of innings, strikeouts, and wins... while keeping his WHIP low enough to help a fantasy team. Due to ending 2009 with an injury, he could end up being one of the best players to target in 2010.


Colby Lewis | Texas | SP
2009 Final Stats: 9.3 K/9, 6.8 K/BB, 2.68 ERA (Hiroshima Toyo in Japan Central League)

In 2008, Colby Lewis led the league in strikeouts, shutouts, K/9, H/9, and WHIP. In 2009, he backed that up with another strong campaign, posting a 2.98 ERA (8th in league). NPB Roto players everywhere are bemoaning/celebrating the loss of this dominant ace pitcher from the Central League (depending on whether they owned him). Will the Rangers be as happy as the Carp were? Will US fantasy players be hailing Lewis-san? Well, BP has never been shy about projecting Japanese players, and PECOTA's translations/comparables suggest that Lewis will post a fine 3.89 ERA and a great 1.23 WHIP... in over 160 IP. That would make the $5MM Jon Daniels and the Rangers have invested in him (over the next 2 years) seem like chump change if it came to pass. And why not?

Colby Lewis (Icon/SMI)

The hardest thing about projecting any athletic performance is the “mental” aspect. This author's typical perspective on performance “psychology” is that these are all highly-paid athletes who are super-competitive, and will take whatever steps are necessary to maximize their skills, in essence “growing” beyond any “mental” barriers to peak performance. Of course, that's false. Some guys are knuckleheads (for lack of a more scientific term) and just never “get it” mentally. Some are so good that they are able to survive at the highest level despite delivering only a small fraction of their potential and never do the hard work required to rise above. And, for the most part, a favorite Steve Stone aphorism applies heavily to pitchers – the difference between a good major-league pitcher and an incompetent one is very small. Tying this all into Colby Lewis, I don't think anyone really knows how he'll react mentally. He was dominant in the US minors for years, even in his final year before heading East – when he posted a 1.88 ERA for Sacramento. Yet, he's never experienced success at the highest level.

That said, we're impressed with the “positive” atmosphere in Texas these days, especially among the pitchers. We like guys who post full-season BB/9 rates of 1.4, no matter which league it's in. And, as noted, the usual reaction is to rely on the numbers... and Colby's numbers have been very good and promise to convert nicely to the US. It's still Texas, so the ballpark won't help him. And we don't expect a heroic ERA, but something around 4.00 seems reasonable, though we'd expect it to be slightly above that mark instead of below. Further, pounding the strike zone should allow him to pile up innings while keeping the WHIP low.


Jack Cust | Oakland | DH
2009 Final Stats: .240/.356/.417



It's sort of a shame for Oakland fans and Cust - and hence prospective fantasy owners in OBP/SLG leagues - that the organizational philosophy doesn't acknowledge that there's such a thing as a player who has a pronounced platoon split. Cust has hit an “okay” .226/.353/.382 against LHP in his career, but that's nothing compared to the hearty .244/.382/.483 feast he's enjoyed from “Northpaws” (most of this done while calling an adverse hitter's park “home”). Well, they ran him out there for 26.5% of his PA against LHP again in 2009, far exceeding the AL average of 20.4% (for LHB against LHP). And, again, he contributed against the non-LH hurlers with a .247/.369/.461 line. Many worry overly much about players with “old player skills” aging faster, and while that's true, Cust isn't really old yet, being 3 years younger than Russ Branyan for example. The ability to play an outfield position without hurting himself (notice we didn't add “or the team” here) sets him ahead of Jim Thome in the “must DH lefty power bats” category, and his higher salary represents that. He would have done wonders for the South Siders in US Cellular, though the Twins may be out of reach this year anyway.

Alex Avila | Detroit | C
2009 Final Stats: .279/.375/.590
2009 Final Stats (minors): .264/.365/.450 (AA)

Alex Avila 2009 (Icon/SMI)

Back on August 21, when Avila was first recalled, we had this to say about him:

Oh, the nepotism! The son of assistant GM Al, Alex was taken in the fifth round in 2008 out of Alabama, where he just became a full-time catcher in 2008. But wait, this guy can play ball! He's burst into the Tigers' pennant race and wrested at least half the playing time already. After showing great hitting and on-base skills in the tough Midwest League in 2008, the Tigers vaulted him over High-A to Double-A. He didn't slow down at all, and even added power (12 HR) and a 44% CS% to his game. If the “True Talent” projection represents his ability now, it will soon be outdated. This guy is on the fast track, and not just due to his family ties.

For the record, “True Talent” at the time projected .241/.311/.358. Somehow, his unexpectedly great performance in Detroit worsened that for the GP2010 projection. And other projection systems don't think he'll do much in 2010 either. And BA's scouting department thinks he's only good for 6th-best in their organization. But – frankly – it's unclear what they don't see in this guy. We'd never suggest taking him expecting a 2010 contribution, and part of his value is in his defense, which won't show up in fantasy ball. But in trading Dusty Ryan, the Tigers have made it clear that they expect Avila to be their catcher as soon as Laird's “expiration date” arrives. And he won't be a bad 2nd catcher in an AL-only league for this year, though there are probably better to be had if you can't keep him long-term.



Here is a 16-page preview of Graphical Player 2010. You can order the book from Acta Sports here.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Rob McQuown 2010-02-05T08:00:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0129/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0129/#When:20:00:15 Carlos Quentin | Chicago | OF
2009 Final Stats: .236/.323/.456


“Staying healthy is not a skill at which Quentin excels,” this author understated in GP2010. An oddity about Quentin's injuries is that none of the major ones have derived from his huge HBP totals—a self-inflicted hand injury ending his 2008, followed by a mysteriously slow-healing foot problem in 2009, and even going back to his Tommy John surgery in 2003 and his labrum and hamstring issues in 2007. Oft-injured players like Quentin are such a tease for fantasy owners. Is he really a Schleprock, who can be expected to continue finding varied new ways to get hurt? Or is it really just a matter of the dice coming up “craps” twice in his three “full” major-league seasons? Even with the injury in 2008, he contributed mightily.

Quentin... when healthy(Icon/SMI)

First off, Quentin's a guy who is going to help in a setting where OBP matters, so Sabermetrically friendly fantasy leagues and sim games are contexts where his offensive contributions will be fully appreciated. Some may see that his walk totals aren't exactly overwhelming, and while he makes good contract for a slugger (career Ct% over 82%), he really is skilled at leaning into pitches. He ranks 75th on the active HBP list, and has just 1,422 PA to his credit. If he manages to get 600 PA, the extra 25 HBP (or so) will vault him into top 50 territory, and his HBP:PA ratio is 8% higher (38% vs. 30%) than active leader Jason Kendall ... and HBP is definitely a stat that (statistically) keeps going up with age. So, anyway, don't dismiss him as a low-OBP guy based on the fact that he walks under once per 10 PA, and is unlikely to hit over .300.

The other aspect of run production is slugging, and Quentin has a career slugging of .491, which is good-not-great, considering the parks he's played in. But then again, his ISO is .237, which—thanks to the P-I tool at baseball-reference.com—is the 28th-best ISO among active players with 1000+ PA. As a player who hits a lot of fly balls, distributed in a manner which leads to a lot of homers in US Cellular field, there's really no reason to expect his ISO to drop, and (here's that qualifier again)—if healthy—his age 27 season could even see growth in this area. So, the question is really whether he can lift his .254 career batting average. Not a fast runner at his best, the foot problems were responsible for a lot of the 2009 BABIP depression (.223 on the season). The fly balls, however, are taxing on BABIP, and he may “deserve” some of the .258 career BABIP he's compiled. That said, that's an extremely low figure for a guy who hammers the ball with such authority. Expect to see this rebound to around his 2008 figure of .280, and his batting average to likewise climb back into the .280 range.

In summary, health is the issue with Quentin. It would be easy to take a “confident” stance that he's going to get nearly 600 PA and put up nice triple-crown stats (e.g. .280-35-90), and that looks good in the postseason reviews if it happens. And it's certainly a good possibility, perhaps moreso than most people think. But he still should be viewed as a player to take in a “bargain” round (or at a “bargain” auction price), or else a bit earlier by a team that needs some breaks to contend anyway (due to inferior keepers).

Alex Rios | Chicago | OF
2009 Final Stats (Overall): .247/.296/.395
2009 Final Stats (Chicago): .199/.229/.301


Kenny Williams became the laughing stock of the Internet blogging community when he spoke out about how “disappointing” some players were to him in 2009. But the team was one game out on Aug. 5, and after splitting a pair with LA, had upcoming series with non-contenders CLE, SEA, OAK, KC, and BAL before facing a meat grinder of Boston, NY, and MIN. That the Sox went from four games over .500 to two games over .500 in that stretch before the Boston series was not aided by the fact that Alex Rios joined the team on Aug. 12. The theory was that Rios only needed to play like he's played for over 3,000 PA in the past, and the White Sox would realize a big upgrade to their gaping hole in CF. No, in this we have to take exception to our fellow bloggers and suggest that Kenny Williams had every right to be disappointed with the ridiculously poor stats his new center fielder put up.

Projecting Rios could be a case study in the “statistical sample size” vs. “what have you done for me lately” aspects of performance expectations. On the “lately” side, only the last 10 games of 2009 gave any inkling of hope (he hit .333/.400/.556 in 40 PA). But while we know that 10 games is a “throwaway” sample size, could it be that the entire 2009 is also? BABIP is shown to track with career BABIP, and Rios still sports an excellent .323 career BABIP, due to his line-drive hitting ways (before 2009), good speed, and decent power. So, do we assume that his BABIP will rebound to the .320 range? His BB% and ISO were down a little in 2009 (5.8% vs 6.6% career BB% and .148 ISO vs .163 career ISO), but nothing that seems out of place from a random fluctuation. And his contact rate remained virtually unchanged (though he struck out more after coming to Chicago). About every projection which will be published for Rios will combine these two aspects in some manner ... usually by weighting the most recent season much more highly than previous seasons, but not excluding those priors, either. In general, the “long view” tends to be right much more often than not, and with most of his core indicators staying similar to career numbers, Rios should rebound to somewhere near his career norms, which are quite useful. On top of that, the ballpark should aid his numbers somewhat, compared to Toronto. It seems likely that he will be undervalued on draft day in many—if not all—leagues.

Josh Hamilton | Texas | OF
2009 Final Stats: .268/.315/.426


It may seem contradictory to be bullish on Quentin and bearish on Hamilton, but that's how we see it this season. This author has been resisting trade offers for him in a keeper Strat-O-Matic league, so it's not like we're writing him off totally, but for fantasy purposes, he's too likely to miss time to be a front-line option. Further, back injuries can often sap a hitter's power, and he underwent two “root-nerve injections” in his back and ended the season not being able to play. His past personal problems—and the indications that he'd struggled with them again recently—wouldn't necessarily be a reason to stay away, but given the severe consequences if things get out of control again, his likelihood of having a career-ending “event” happen has to be considered higher than most players. Add in that hitting guru Rudy Jaramillo is now in Chicago, and the risk factors just keep compounding.

Now that we've scared off anyone with any risk aversion tendencies whatever, this is still Josh Hamilton, arguably one of the most gifted natural hitters of our generation. The .304–32–130 season he posted in 2008 wasn't a mirage or a fluke (though the RBI total has to be considered lucky). Even though the park factor in Texas has been declining in recent years, it's still a nice place to hit. So, if he's sitting there in the later rounds, and it's a choice between a “safe” pick like Franklin Gutierrez or him, it could be better to go with the “upside” guy and presume you can figure something out from “replacement level” players if something bad happens. This is a classic case of a guy having much more value in shallow leagues than in deep ones, however ... since “replacement level” is so much stronger in shallow leagues.

Franklin Gutierrez | Seattle | OF
2009 Final Stats: .283/.339/.425


Gutierrez is a runaway leader in the “outfield fielding runs” category in those roto leagues which use fielding. For the rest of us, the terse synopsis back in July still applies: “Nobody in Cleveland is surprised that Franklin Gutierrez is dominating the CF defensive stats this year (.986 RZR, 60 OOZ plays, both tops among CF qualifiers). With the [...] rotation needing all the flycatching support it can get [...], his job is virtually slump-proof. [D]on't expect a star, but for AL-only leagues, just playing every game has value."

As with former M's center fielder Mike Cameron, Gutierrez faces a tricky situation in terms of maximizing his value. Playing in a park with a huge outfield (like Seattle) saps his power, and expecting more than his 18 HR from 2009 seems optimistic. Yet, parks with smaller outfield territories reduce the influence he can have on the pitching stats. At least in his first year, his “home cooking” outweighed the “big park” effect, and he actually posted an excellent .386 OBP at home (.317/.386/.443). His good speed translated into 16 SB in 2009, and he can be expected to again have about that many in 2010. All-in-all, he seems like one of the more likely hitters to put up carbon-copy numbers in 2010.

Travis Snider | Toronto | OF
2009 Final Stats: .241/.328/.419


A high-school outfielder is drafted for his bat, and is considered the best HS hitter in the draft, yet falls outside the top 10. He reaches the majors at a young age, and posts eye-popping stats in a meaningless sample size and gets a serious “buzz” going about his future. The next year, he disappoints, despite getting on base about a third of the time. The strikeouts, many fear, are going to seriously limit his potential. Despite the obvious similarities to Jeremy Hermida, Travis Snider's situation is somewhat different. Hermida was “pretty good” at High-A and Double-A at ages 20 and 21. Snider was “pretty good" at Double-A at age 20, and has done nothing short of embarrass Triple-A pitching since then, hitting .337/.431/.663 in 204 PA there in 2009 after 70 great PA in 2008. Perhaps more important, his contact percentage (Ct%) at Double-A was 77%. We're not talking Dustin Pedroia here, but for a 21-year-old with limitless power and good plate discipline to have a Ct% that high against Triple-A pitching is a great sign.

Then, of course, came the regular gig in Toronto. Snider was so awful against LHP (20 K in 40 AB!) that he wasn't used against some tough lefties. He did draw five walks, get hit by two pitches, and even lay down a couple bunts, so he managed a .333 OBP against southpaws despite all the whiffs. The good news from the struggles against lefties is that he slugged .448 vs RHP, which is inching toward the power a team wants from a corner outfielder. At 21, there's every indication that number will skyrocket upward. And if he's bombing RHP, he'll get every chance to work on his approach vs LHP. Whether or not he will have an epiphany along the way and suddenly turn into a two-way hitter is not clear, but even if he stalls out as a should-be platoon guy, a la Jason Kubel (.240/.314/.356 career vsL), there's little doubt that he'll hurt righty pitching badly enough to be a valuable contributor both to the Blue Jays and to fantasy teams for years. Expect significant growth in 2010, but temper expectations a bit, as he'll still be just 22 years old.

Scott Sizemore | Detroit | 2B
2009 Final Stats: .308/.389/.500 (AA-AAA)


Sizemore is an interesting case. He's a “grindy” player who has overachieved what was expected. Scouts don't think much of him, and he's even ranked 10th in the thin Tigers organization in BA's 2010 list. One knock on him is that he plays no part of the second base position well enough to acquit himself at the major league level, so his bat is going to have to carry him (let this be a warning to those considering drafting Tigers pitching). Then the scouts watch his game and don't see the standout batting skills they want, other than an adequate ability to hit for average. On the flip side, his “overachieving” makes him a favorite with coaches, and the stats he's put up (he has hit for average, some power, drawn walks, and even stolen a few bases) make his projections come out just fine, if somewhat pedestrian. He's a bit of an “older” prospect, but just made his pro debut in 2006 and didn't stall out at any level, having his best half-season at Double-A in 2009 to earn his promotion—and likely earn Polanco his ticket out of Motown. It would not be surprising to see him falter somewhat in 2010, but become sort of a late bloomer a la Mark DeRosa. It's unclear how much rope he'll be given, though the Tigers don't appear to have any other reasonable options at the position.

Here is a 16-page preview of Graphical Player 2010. You can order the book from Acta Sports here.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Rob McQuown 2010-01-29T20:00:15+00:00 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0122/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0122/#When:08:00:15 Max Scherzer facing Royals (Icon/SMI)
Max Scherzer | Detroit | SP
2009 Final Stats: 9.2 K/9, 2.8 K/BB, 4.12 ERA
1. Mark Prior 2003: 2.13
2. Jake Peavy 2005: 2.22
3. Frank Tanana 1975: 2.55
4. Jake Peavy 2004: 2.87
5. Pedro Martinez 1996: 2.91
6. Dwight Gooden 1984: 3.01
7. Jim Maloney 1963: 3.16
8. Mark Prior 2005: 3.19
9. Max Scherzer 2009: 3.33
10. Tim Lincecum 2008: 3.33



Strikeouts have been typically higher in recent years, but it's still significant that only 30 times has an ERA qualifier of seasonal age 24 or less posted a K/9 rate of 9.0 or more, and Scherzer's 2009 was the 26th-best. Arguably much more important is that only eight pitchers had lower BB/9 rates than Scherzer among those 30. (see top 10 above)


So, Scherzer is a young pitcher, throws hard, posted a historically significant strikeout rate, and has a great pedigree going back to at least college, when he was regarded as one of the nation's top arms. Why would Arizona even consider trading this guy for Edwin Jackson, whose second-half performance looked remarkably similar to his performances before his “breakout” first-half in 2009? Well, we can be pretty sure it wasn't because he was reading The Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus, and fangraphs.com (which he reportedly does). “Pitching for FIP” was already trendy for most pitchers before the term was popularized, since it involves striking people out, not walking batters, and keeping the ball down ... and every pitcher knows that K's are $$, and the other two elements any pitching coach reiterates anyway. The only real worry with Scherzer is his “sloppy” delivery, and the thinking by many that he'll end up in the bullpen.


For a one-year fantasy pick, Scherzer should be great. As mentioned last week with Valverde, the Tigers may have lost some defensive ability with their offseason moves, but they still won't be butchers. And the park difference for Scherzer should more-or-less make up for the league shift. Add another year of maturity, and there's little reason to expect anything other than a solid 200-IP season with good strikeout numbers and a very good ERA and WHIP. The Tigers don't have much offense, but with the White Sox apparently trying to collect the guys on the bottom of the WAR rankings, and KC still searching for its first clue, he should log his share of wins. We're not even slightly worried about his delivery. It may increase his chance of breaking down, but all pitchers are fragile, and some guys with suspect deliveries stay consistently healthy, while some guys with picture-perfect deliveries (a la Mark Prior) break down for no apparent reason. The difference in “chance to get injured” for one season is not something which would cause us to worry.

David Aardsma | Seattle | RP
2009 Final Stats: 10.1 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 2.52 ERA


The old saw is that pitching is all about confidence. And few things can inspire confidence in a pitcher like seeing a Grand Canyon-sized ballpark with an outfield patrolled by the likes of Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro. And all but scrapping his breaking pitches and throwing heater after heater (87% of the time, per fangraphs.com, in 2009) worked wonders for him. A lofty flyball percentage of almost 54% kept things exciting, but most of those went to die in the gloves of the rangy outfielders in spacious Safeco.

It's not unheard-of for relievers to become dominant after overcoming control problems in their youth, a la Bobby Jenks and Matt Thorton of the White Sox, or another former Mariner, J.J. Putz. But, there are also plenty of examples of one-year wonders, pitchers like Derrick Turnbow, who posted a career-best 3.2 BB/9 at age 27 (he was over 4.5 BB/9 in the minors), only to revert to his wild ways and succumb to injury woes. Considering that Aardsma was this author's No. 1 “Miss” of the 2009 season, in terms of projecting players, as he was ridiculed with the monicker “BB-rdsma,” it would be easy to assume that he's going to be another Turnbow story. And the fact that he only allowed four HR in all those fly balls (4% of fly balls were homers) does suggest some correction in the stats. But we're not going to sell short the value of confidence here. And defense. And a big ballpark. Look for him to be a solid middle-of-the pack closer again in 2009.

David Price | Tampa Bay | SP
2009 Final Stats: 7.2 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 4.42 ERA


Similarly to Matt Wieters, there was probably no way David Price could have lived up to his hype. But how do we evaluate him now? The (primarily or wholly) formulaic forecasting done by various sources such as BIS (The Bill James Handbook, CHONE, Marcel, and GP) all seem to indicate that WYSIWYG—a pitcher with an ERA around 4.5 or just under (his xFIP was 4.49 in 2009). But the “Fans” polling at FG suggests a reasonably dramatic improvement in 2010, to an ERA of well under 4.0.

When I began writing this, I assumed that Price had seen tougher-than-average competition in 2009. But it turns out it was even tougher than I'd guessed. The first query I did on the BP “Pitcher Quality of Opposition” was with 120 IP minimum, and he's tops on that list, with an average opponent OPS of .776 in 2009. And there were 108 such pitchers in MLB, going all the way down to a .707 mark against. Also, his second half was far better than his first half, when he was—essentially—just getting his feet wet in the majors. In the second half, his batting line against was a very good .241/.296/.380. Not to jump to any conclusions, but that's a lot better batting line than fellow lefty and Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee sports for his career. And Lee's frequently been near the bottom of the AL Quality of opposition listings (during his AL seasons, of course).

The last two “linked” fangraphs.com stories about Mr. Price (August and September) talk about “missing groundballs” and “missing sliders,” but this is a guy who held his own in baseball's toughest division in his rookie season, and showed development over the year. His velocity on his fastball averaged almost 93 mph. For fantasy purposes, the quality of opposition won't get any easier, especially with some noted RH bats who hit lefties joining the division in Beltre, Cameron, and Atkins. Now, we were the first to roll our eyes at the over-hype status Price had, but we see him as a great candidate to “break out,” even with the adverse setting. He'll probably be better to own in a simulation-game context, one which adjusts for things like opposition strength, ballparks, etc. And we're not suggesting he'll be a No. 1 or even No. 2 fantasy starter for a team trying to compete in all 10 categories, but he could be a good No. 3, and in some leagues he won't be “priced” as such (no pun intended), due to his “disappointing” 2009.

Neftali Feliz | Texas | SP
2009 Final Stats: 11.3 K/9, 4.9 K/BB, 1.74 ERA


GP 2010 starts off about Feliz, “He is the greatest thing ever. No, really.” At the risk of falling into the same “trap” as people did with David Price a year ago, Feliz really has shown enough to be considered among the best pitchers in baseball already, and he'll be just 21 on opening day! Now, extrapolating “he's the best” to fantasy results is more problematic. He went backward in innings in 2009 missing some time with a minor injury and logging just 108 IP after 127 IP the year before. And don't expect the Rangers to take chances—if he adds 40 innings in 2010, it would be a shock; a total under 140 is more likely. And some more bullpen time is a possibility, though the organization will give him every opportunity to be a rotation anchor instead. Anyway, while he really is awesome (without cheapening the word), it's very possible that he won't be a pitcher to target in a 2010 fantasy draft. It will all depend on how others view him.

Billy Butler | Kansas City | 1B
2009 Final Stats: .301/.362/.492


Few things are more rewarding for an organization than seeing a highly regarded first-round pick round his game into shape and become a star. Many of the game's best hitters entered the draft out of high school, and were known to have a high likelihood of being middle-of-order hitters even at such a young age. Butler was one such player, and that he fell to 14th in the 2004 draft is a symptom of ever-present concerns over his defense. But hit he can, and he'll be just 24 in 2010. His second-half stats were particularly good, as he raked at a .314/.385/.540 clip.

The reports out of KC were that Butler was becoming a much better fielder this year at first base, but his +/- and UZR show a slight decline, though there wasn't much data before 2009. First base defense is very tricky to measure, so we're going to assume that the “lyin' eyes” reports are at least as valid in this case, especially since the sample size isn't huge nor does his defense rate out as being horrible (just below average at -7 runs/150). Whatever it is, he's entrenched at 1B, as the organization believes he's fine there and there really isn't anyone else (yes, we know that Kila Ka'aihue is rotting away in Triple-A like some leftovers from a great restaurant that Dayton Moore forgot he had in the fridge). If the Royals didn't have the idea that “upgrades” including Yunieski Betancourt, Scott Podsednick, Josh Fields, and Chris Getz were what they needed, it would be easier to get excited about Butler. But, playing in obscurity, he may come cheaply on draft day; just remember that he won't get the runs or RBI of a player on a better team, even if he hits .310 with 30 HR, which is distinctly possible for him.

Here is a 16-page preview of Graphical Player 2010. You can order the book from Acta Sports here.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Rob McQuown 2010-01-22T08:00:15+00:00