The Hardball Times -- Ryan Richards http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-24T08:08:15+00:00 Five Questions: Cleveland Indians http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-cleveland-indians5/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-cleveland-indians5/#When:06:03:15

If the Indians aren’t going anywhere, what’s the goal this season?


Some of the moves (replacing Eric Wedge) came almost as a relief, while others (the trades of Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez) were expected, probably necessary, but all the same excruciating to a fan base that’s been let down regularly. That’s why this season’s success rests only indirectly on wins and losses. Because unless the casual fan is re-energized, it will be difficult to build on any on-field improvement. Ownership seems to be unwilling to get out in front of fan interest, so ticket sales will need to drive payroll, not vice versa.

For the casual fan to regain interest in the Indians, and not treat the club as a passing diversion between LeBron in the spring and the Browns in the fall, the club will need to show tangible improvement over the course of the season. Right now, it’s hard to identify what specific steps the Indians need to take to compete for the division, but by the end of the season, those steps should not only be identifiable but easily obtainable. Do that, and interest will return, along with the all-important season ticket sales.

What’s the biggest problem area on this team?

By this time next year, the Indians will have taken a big step forward if they have only a couple spots in the rotation to fill, instead of having to fill the entire rotation. In other words, it would be nice to reasonably expect three starting pitchers to pitch at least 180 innings, make 28-30 starts, and a roughly league-average ERA. I don’t expect any Indians starter to accomplish that this season for a variety of reasons including a lack of 2009 innings, a lack of big-league experience or major mechanical flaws.

The absence of starting pitching throughout the organization was what largely led to last year’s mid-season trades of Lee and Martinez, and while the Indians now have some depth thanks to those deals, they don’t yet have a credible rotation. The three pitchers who are expected to head the staff (Jake Westbrook, Justin Masterson, and Fausto Carmona) all have serious flaws, and in most rotations would be classified as back-end projects. Westbrook hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors in almost two seasons, Carmona was a disaster in 2009, and Masterson is still transitioning from the bullpen. Again, that’s the top of the rotation.

At the bottom of the rotation are several pitchers working their way into the majors. Aaron Laffey, David Huff, and Mitch Talbot are the three frontrunners for the final two spots, though Talbot has a procedural advantage because he’s out of options. Laffey is the most accomplished major-leaguer of the bunch and was the best pitcher on the staff after Cliff Lee was dealt. Huff racked up the most innings of the returning pitchers, and though he stuck around mainly through a lack of other credible or even quasi-credible rotation options, did show improvement as the season wore down. Talbot came over from Tampa for Kelly Shoppach this winter, and should make the team if he has a competent end to the exhibition season. He hasn’t pitched in the majors since the end of the 2008 season, and spent much of the 2009 campaign coming back from an elbow injury, though his career minor-league stats are promising enough to justify a shot.

What about the other part of run prevention: defense?


Depending on who makes the club, the Indians could start the season with a rotation full of groundball pitchers, so the range of the infielders will play a key role. The Indians, though, return three starting infielders (Asdrubal Cabrera, Luis Valbuena, and Jhonny Peralta) with negative 2009 UZRs. Cabrera and Peralta’s jobs are safe, but Valbuena could lose playing time when one of the more extreme groundballers is on the mound.

The outfield seems a much better defensive group. Grady Sizemore has excellent range and a poor arm in center, while right fielder Shin-Soo Choo has decent range and an excellent arm. Depending on the health of Russell Branyan, either Matt LaPorta or Michael Brantley will be patrolling left field, with Brantley being the better fielder.

So with a young, shaky, groundball-throwing starting rotation pitching in front of an infield that’s not likely to cover much ground, run prevention is going to be a major problem with this team.

Is the lineup good enough to make up for the pitching?


Not even close, though the offense should rank among the best in the league. The Indians potentially have a very nice core of offensive players, led by Sizemore, Cabrera, and Choo. All three are threats at the plate and on the base paths, with Cabrera lagging a bit behind the other two in the power department. Sizemore played with an injured elbow most of last year, and a clean bill of health should mean another 30-30 season. Choo had a fantastic offensive season in 2009 (.300/.394/.489, 21-for-23 in stolen base attempts) which was largely ignored because of how poorly the team played. Cabrera was the other pleasant surprise; he solved right-handed pitchers, his previous weakness, and did everything but hit home runs.

The supporting cast is also good. Branyan and Travis Hafner, if healthy, will give the lineup traditional power threats. Valbuena has surprising power for a player of his build. And LaPorta and Brantley, promising prospects received for CC Sabathia in 2008, should both get regular at-bats for the first time. Brantley gives the lineup another base stealer, though he’ll either have to hit for power or rack up the walks to stick around as a left fielder. LaPorta is a more typical corner outfield prospect, a power hitter with a very quick bat. Catching prospect Carlos Santana, when he’s ready defensively, will contribute with the bat right away

What happened to Jhonny Peralta, and what are the Indians going to do with him?


It had been several years since the Peralta-to-third calls began, but with the emergence of Asdrubal Cabrera, the time was right to make the move last season. Jhonny wasn’t happy with the position change, and even this spring still thinks himself a shortstop. But the major problem right now is his offense; he hit .254/.316/.375 in 2009, an anemic batting line for just about any position. Instead of hitting line-drive extra-base hits the other way, Peralta hit more pulled ground balls than in past seasons. His 11 home runs were his lowest full-season total in his career. He’s coming into the last guaranteed season on his contract, and though it would make sense to deal him in July, a third baseman who isn’t hitting for power is a poor trade chip. In a perfect world, Peralta will rebound, allowing the Indians to trade him for a couple of prospects at the deadline and give prospect Lonnie Chisenhall some at-bats in August and September.

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Young hitters like Shin-Soo Choo and Kelly Shoppach fueled the second half surge; Victor Martinez wasn’t healthy until September, and Travis Hafner, even when he played, was hampered by a painful shoulder that he eventually had off-season surgery on.

After the season, the Indians signed closer Kerry Wood, traded for Joe Smith to try to stabilize what was an awful bullpen, and acquired Mark DeRosa to replace Casey Blake at third base. In addition, they bolstered their farm system through trades during and after the season, adding (among others) outfielders Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley (Sabathia), catcher Carlos Santana (Blake), and second baseman Luis Valbuena (Franklin Gutierrez).

How are the Indians going to fill out their rotation?


I think the starting rotation is the key to the Indians’ season. By the end of last season, the Indians’ top four starters to start the 2008 season were either not with the team (Sabathia, Paul Byrd) or missing due to injury (Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook). The fifth starter was Cy Young winner Cliff Lee, so things aren’t looking that bad for this years’ rotation, but there’s a lot of innings that need to be picked up. The 2007 rotation that lead the Indians to the ALCS in 2007 was made up of pitchers both young and old that went deep into games; this rotation is mostly just young.

After Lee and Carmona, there’s no lock in the rotation. Although the Indians can choose from six credible starters to fill those last three spots, only one of those six threw more than 100 major-league innings in 2008, so there’s probably going to be a revolving door at the back end of the rotation. Carl Pavano and Anthony Reyes have already won two of the spots, Scott Lewis and Aaron Laffey are currently in a battle for the fifth spot, and David Huff and Jeremy Sowers (along with the loser of the Lewis/Laffey competition) will be lurking in Columbus waiting for an opportunity.

Pavano, last seen not pitching with the New York Yankees, was brought in to fill one of the remaining three spots. Although Pavano’s contract isn’t much of a financial risk, he also hasn’t made a full season’s worth of starts since 2004, his last season with the Florida Marlins. The Indians are hoping that a change of scenery and lots of motivation can overcome not pitching much over the last four seasons. I’m not expecting much.

Reyes, acquired from St. Louis last summer after a falling out with Cardinals’ coaching staff, pitched well in 34.1 innings with the Indians, but is out of options, meaning the Indians will have to live with a bad stretch in order to keep him in the organization.

Jake Westbrook, recovering from Tommy John surgery, is slated to return to the rotation in June or July, so if the Indians can find two dependable starters by then to go with Lee and Carmona, the rotation could end up being a strength down the stretch, or at least not a weakness.

Will the old Travis Hafner ever return?


From 2004-2006, Travis Hafner was as good a hitter as anyone in baseball; he averaged a 170 OPS+ during this period, combining a great eye at the plate with outstanding ball-striking ability. His 2006 season, cut short a month due to a hand injury, was his best campaign; he hit .308/.439/.659, and slugged a career-high 42 home runs. The next season (2007), his production fell off considerably (118 OPS+), but he was still by league standards a valuable hitter. That summer, the Indians signed him to a $57 million extension through the 2012 campaign.

That new contract now looks like a major liability. Hafner spent several months on the disabled list last season thanks to a shoulder injury, and when he was in the lineup his bat speed seemed slow and his plate discipline wasn’t the same. The weakness in his shoulder continued throughout the season, and he eventually had arthroscopic surgery in the off-season. The surgery was a success, and he’s regained the strength in his shoulder, but it’s an open question whether he’ll regain his hitting stroke. He’s struggled this spring against live pitching, although perhaps he just needs to get his timing back. I think a return to his 2007 production is about as good as you can expect, and even that may not be seen until later in the season, after he’s gotten some additional at-bats under his belt.

Can the Indians finally get some offense from their corner outfielders?



Although the Indians get exceptional offensive production from their up-the-middle position players, they’ve recently had trouble getting contributions from their corner positions, most particularly, their corner outfielders. Getting just average production from their non-Sizemore outfielders should place the Indians’ offensive attack in the top quarter of the league.

Neither Ben Francisco nor Shin-Soo Choo were starters for the Indians at the beginning of last season. Francisco got his opportunity after the Indians punted on Jason Michaels, and was for a time the best hitter in the lineup. He cooled off as pitchers adjusted to him; he loves inside fastballs, and he was instead getting a diet of off-speed pitches after the All-Star Break. Choo replaced Franklin Gutierrez as everyday right fielder, and hit .312/.399/.544 in the second half. Francisco needs to make some adjustments of his own at the plate to remain in the starting lineup, while Choo seems to have turned a corner in his development, and should give the Indians at least one solid corner outfielder.

What can the Indians expect for an encore from Cliff Lee?


The Indians held Lee back for the first couple weeks of spring training, trying to limit his workload, since he threw a career-high total in innings last season. Given how iffy the rest of the rotation looks, the Indians are going to need Lee this year to recapture at least a good part of his pitching prowess from last season.

Lee’s breakthrough last season was fairly simple: he was able to spot his fastball with incredible accuracy. He was able to stay down in the zone, almost flipping his career groundball/flyball ratio. Being able to get ahead in the count with a fastball on the corner turned his curve and slider into out pitches, and as his walks dropped, his strikeout rates soared. Lee will probably never again approach his 2008 season, but he’s not going back to the pitcher he was in 2007.
Now that Kerry Wood is in the fold, the bullpen will be fine…right?

In the recent past, the Indians have alternated between stellar and brutal bullpens. Their most recent good bullpen, in 2007, featured a closer with mediocre stuff backed up by several top-quality setup men. This bullpen seems the inverse of the one two years ago: a closer with great stuff backed up by several setup men with mediocre stuff, at least if we go by their 2008 performances. Rafael Betancourt, who was a constant for years, finally had a poor season a year ago, and Masa Kobayashi, who had a successful career as closer in Japan, faded badly down the stretch, and hasn’t looked good this spring. Jensen Lewis has supplanted both Betancourt and Rafael Perez as the primary setup man by virtue of being the lone consistent reliever down the stretch. The bullpen would have looked a whole lot better if Adam Miller had been healthy; instead, Miller will probably undergo season-ending surgery on his pitching middle finger.

Conclusion/2009 prediction


I like what the Indians have done to reinvent themselves over the past six months, and they should get better over the next couple seasons as the prospects they received in last July’s trades begin to contribute. But I think there are too many unknown quantities on this year’s club, especially in the rotation, for them to win the AL Central.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Ryan Richards 2009-03-28T05:03:15+00:00 Five Questions: Cleveland Indians http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-cleveland-indians3/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-cleveland-indians3/#When:04:15:15 1. Was doing (essentially) nothing this offseason a smart move for the Indians?
Here's a summary of the offseason transactions affecting the Indians' 2008 major-league roster (don't worry, it won't take long):

To understand the Indians' free agent philosophy is to understand why the Indians stood pat this offseason. Cleveland signed Jake Westbrook and Travis Hafner to contract extensions earlier in the season; Westbrook would have been a free agent, and Hafner would have been eligible for free agency after the 2008 season. So there was no need for the Indians, who have been very reluctant bidders on the free agent market, to pursue any free agent of significance. And even when the team has a hole to fill, they'll generally skip the top tier of free agents in favor of the underrated free agent or a trade. Combine this reluctance with a very poor free agent class and it's not surprising why the Indians made little noise in this area. The one free agent signing they did make was a good value: Kobayashi's contract in both length and dollars was very reasonable when compared with contracts signed by MLB free agent relievers.

But the trade market held some intriguing possibilities for the Indians. Even if we limit the possibilities to trades that actually took place, two acquisitions would have been perfect fits. Dan Haren would not only have made the Indians' rotation the deepest in the league this season, but would have cushioned the blow of losing C.C. Sabathia to free agency this winter. And Nick Swisher would have been a big improvement over the David Dellucci/Jason Michaels left field platoon. Both players were several years away from free agency, and most importantly, their salaries were locked in during those years of control.

So yes, the Indians were justified in largely staying away from free agency, but also missed some golden opportunities on the trade market.

2. Who was impersonating Travis Hafner last season?

In his three seasons before 2007, Travis Hafner averaged a 170 OPS+. Last season, despite staying off the disabled list, he only managed a 118 OPS+. The problem for Hafner wasn't plate coverage, but contact: his groundball percentage spiked to 47.8 percent, which was a huge departure for a guy who was a line-drive slugger. Because the Indians now have almost $60 million dollars invested in Hafner, the franchise's success is tied to him; this isn't a team that can afford a bad big contract.

If an established player has a season way beyond anything he's done before, we always say he'll regress toward his career averages the next year. In this situation, regression toward the mean isn't a bad thing. I’m more inclined to believe Hafner will have a vintage 2004-2006 campaign of mayhem than a kinder, gentler repeat of 2007.

3. Did the Indians make a Faustian bargain by pushing Carmona last season?

To clarify the question: the concern is not that Carmona threw 215 innings per se; it's that those 215 innings followed a season in which Carmona threw 102.1 professional innings. And most of his 2006 major-league innings came in relief. Even though Carmona's 2007 outings were rarely taxing, that jump in innings for a young hurler is a huge concern. Heck, just throwing that many innings at his age is a red flag.

I'd expect the Indians to be as careful as they dare with Carmona. They have enough starting depth (the losers of the Cliff Lee-Aaron Laffey-Jeremy Sowers battle royale) to handle a skipped Carmona start early in the season. But all that caution will go away if the Indians find themselves in a race late in the summer.

4. Is Andy Marte the answer at third?

Marte will make the team as a reserve infielder, but obviously the Indians are hoping that he becomes much more than that. They acquired him in 2006 hoping he'd be their long-term third baseman, and targeted 2007 as his first full season. But those plans went awry; they had to move Casey Blake back to third after Marte got hurt and never got on track. Blake filled in admirably, but he probably won't be viable at third too much longer.

The Indians need to give Marte an appreciable major-league stint to make a decision on him, so Eric Wedge has to get Andy at-bats while at the same time winning games. Perhaps the two goals aren't mutually exclusive, and the transition from Blake to Marte takes place gradually. I think the more likely outcome is that neither will be the Indians' 2009 Opening Day third baseman.

5. Who will be the fifth starter? And who should be?

Lee will probably start the season in the rotation, with Laffey and Sowers going to Buffalo. All three pitchers have options remaining, but it would take a complete implosion from Lee for the Indians to send him down again. In fact, it took a meltdown (giving up 21 runs in three starts) last July for the Indians to swap Lee out for Laffey, who was very adequate in nine starts down the stretch. The major advantage Lee has over his competition is past success and a guaranteed contract, neither of which makes him a better pitcher this season.

If it were my decision, I’d trade Lee and give the job to Laffey. Lee’s reputation rests largely on his 18-win* season in 2005. Since then, his strikeout rates have consistently dropped and his walk rates and SLG% have both risen. Even though it’s always difficult to give up healthy starting pitching, this is an instance where the Indians should sell high.

*Lee’s ERA+ in 2005 was 111

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Starting pitching

Boston:
Josh Beckett: 14.0 IP, 1.93 ERA, 18 K, 1 BB
Curt Schilling: 11.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 8 K, 0 BB
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 9.2 IP, 5.59 ERA, 9 K, 2 BB
Tim Wakefield: 4.2 IP, 9.64 ERA, 7 K, 2 BB

Cleveland:
C.C. Sabathia: 10.1 IP, 10.45 ERA, 9 K, 7 BB
Fausto Carmona: 6.0 IP, 16.50 ERA, 7 K, 9 BB
Jake Westbrook: 12.2 IP, 3.55 ERA, 7 K, 4 BB
Paul Byrd: 5.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 4 K, 0 BB

Indians starters pitched less innings, struck out less, and walked more than their counterparts. Sabathia and Carmona, the Indians’ best pitchers, were mostly horrible. After the Indians stole Game 2, Westbrook and Byrd gave the Indians two decent starts, which was really all they needed. Sabathia was decent in his second start, but Carmona’s two efforts were anything but. The short outings of Carmona and Sabathia meant Indian relievers needed to take over as early as the third inning, something they weren’t accustomed to. It’s possible the back end of the bullpen simply wore out towards the end of the series.

Relief pitching


Boston:
Jonathan Papelbon: 5.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3 K, 2 BB
Hideki Okajima: 5.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3 K, 2 BB
Mike Timlin: 3.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3 K, 0 BB
Manny Delcarmen: 1.2 IP, 16.20 ERA, 3 K, 2 BB

Cleveland:
Joe Borowski: 4.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1 K, 3 BB
Rafael Betancourt: 8.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 6 K, 1 BB
Jensen Lewis: 5.2 IP, 6.35 ERA, 3 K, 0 BB
Rafael Perez: 1.0 IP, 45.00 ERA, 0 K, 2 BB

Betancourt and Lewis were fantastic until Game 7; both played a key role in Game 2, throwing 4.2 scoreless innings between them. Borowski retired the Red Sox in order in his only save opportunity of the series. It was Perez who really let the team down, first in Game 2, necessitating long outings from Lewis and Betancourt, and later in Game 5. He wasn’t used again, and rightfully so, but his absence from the regular bullpen rotation meant more innings for the relievers who were left.

Offense

Boston:
Manny Ramirez: 22 AB, .409/.563/.727, 1 2B, 2 HR
David Ortiz: 24 AB, .292/.424/.542, 3 2B, 1 HR
Mike Lowell: 27 AB, .333/.375/.519, 2 2B, 1 HR
Kevin Youkilis: 28 AB, .500/.576/.929, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR

The Indians couldn’t contain these four; which was fine as long as the rest of the Sox lineup wasn’t hurting them. But after Game 4, Boston’s lineup turned into a top-to-bottom weapon.

Cleveland:
Grady Sizemore: 27 AB, .222/.313/.407, 2 2B, 1 HR
Victor Martinez: 27 AB, .296/.367/.444, 1 2B, 1 HR
Travis Hafner: 27 AB, .148/.207/.296, 1 2B, 1 HR
Jhonny Peralta: 27 AB, .259/.276/.556, 2 2B, 2 HR

The Indians couldn’t match Boston’s consistent attack, though they scored seven runs in an inning twice in the series. Hafner was the main culprit, disappearing offensively as the series went on. Hafner’s struggles meant that Martinez, who hit behind him, didn’t have as many opportunities to drive in runs. Conversely, once Dustin Pedroia got hot, Boston’s offensive output erupted.

Game 7

Even with the statistical disparity in almost every category, the Indians were up 3-1 at one time, and had an opportunity to win Game 7. Starter Jake Westbrook settled down after a shaky first three innings and left the game having gotten the Indians through six. It was probably the best start of the series by a Cleveland starter, and exactly what the Indians needed. Betancourt and Lewis, the duo who had handled the Red Sox all series, were both available for multiple innings. Down just one run, all the Indians needed was an opportunity, and they got a golden one in the seventh when Julio Lugo dropped a Kenny Lofton pop fly, leaving Lofton on second with just one out. Franklin Gutierrez then lined a single right down the third base line, and with Lofton getting a good jump, it appeared he would easily score the tying run. But third base coach Joel Skinner held him up, Casey Blake grounded into a double play, and Lofton never scored.

The second devastating blow came just minutes later. Blake played a Jacoby Ellsbury grounder into a two-base error, and two batters later Betancourt gave up just his fifth home run in almost 90 innings of work, a two-run shot off the bat of Dustin Pedroia. Betancourt got out of the inning without allowing any more damage, but the Red Sox finished him and the Indians off in the eighth, scoring six more runs.

Conclusion

Although the Indians got unexpected help from some of their supporting cast, the poor performances from players expected to carry the team, especially Fausto Carmona, Travis Hafner, and Rafael Perez, allowed the Red Sox to first extend and finally win the ALCS. The 2007 campaign should be counted as a success especially given where the Indians were a year ago, but blowing a 3-1 series lead against any team, even one as good as the Red Sox, is a disappointing coda to an otherwise promising season.

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Game 1

Boston's ace is Josh Beckett, one of the front runners for this year's Cy Young award. Beckett rebounded from a disastrous 2006 season, slicing his walks, increasing strikeouts, and halving his home runs allowed. This is the guy Boston thought they were getting from Florida after the 2005 season. In his ALDS start, he shut down the Angels, pitching a complete game four-hitter.

Cleveland counters with its own Cy Young candidate, C.C. Sabathia. C.C.'s been building towards this season for a couple years now, getting better with control while at the same time missing more bats. This season is the culmination of that process; he made 34 starts, averaging seven innings per appearance. He threw 241 innings this season, and lead the league in strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.65). So it was very surprising when Sabathia barely got through five innings in his ALDS start against the Yankees. He walked six, and had to throw 114 pitches just to qualify for a victory. Sabathia's wildness may have had to do with a small strike zone, but Boston's lineup drew the most walks in the AL this season, so he'll have to throw more and better strikes to stick around longer than his last start.

Game 2

The Red Sox started Daisuke Matsuzaka in Game 2 of the ALDS, but for the Championship Series opted for Curt Schilling instead. Curt's not a power pitcher any longer, but he's successfully made the transition to finesse artist without too much trouble. He's been especially good in September, allowing nine runs in his four starts (3.16 ERA). He also had little trouble with the Angels, shutting them out over seven innings in the ALDS clincher.

Facing Schilling is Fausto Carmona, who allowed the Yankees just one run and three hits in nine innings of work. He may have the best pitch in baseball right now: a mid-90s sinker that moves drastically down and in to right handed hitters. Carmona is also a Cy Young candidate, and just missed winning the ERA title.

The above matchups are critical to the Indians’ success; offensive production won’t come as easily to the Indians in this series, and I like Boston’s back of the rotation better than Cleveland’s. So Sabathia and Carmona need to have good performances to keep the series within reach.

The schedule

The structure of the series is such that the Game 1 starter could start three games in the series if he goes again on three days’ rest in Game 4. I don’t see either starter doing that unless the opposing team was up 3-0; it’s too much of a risk outside a must-win game. So we should see a repeat of Game 1’s match up in Game 5, and the Game 2 combatants should meet again in Game 6.

If the two teams go with their fourth starters in Game 4, the Indians will go with Paul Byrd, while the Red Sox are likely to tab John Lester, who pitched well against the Tribe in his season debut. Paul Byrd mesmerized the Yankees last Monday, and he’ll get almost as difficult a challenge, facing a lineup just as patient as New York’s.

Relief pitching

Red Sox relievers ranked first in the AL in ERA, so Cleveland’s bullpen will have little room for error. Due to Boston’s right-heavy lineup, I’d expect to see more of Rafael Betancourt and Jensen Lewis than Rafael Perez. Betancourt’s been, as relievers go, extremely consistent since his arrival in the majors, but he’s had a career year in 2007, boasting a 8.89 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Indians have an excellent foundation to their bullpen, but their capstone, Joe Borowski, has accomplished in the same season the singular feat of leading the league in saves and gaining a total lack of confidence in his abilities from outside observers. In the world of saving games, he’s done well; in the world of run prevention, not so much.

The three off days during the series also helps the bullpens. Because at no point in the series will the teams play on three consecutive days, I’d expect both managers to use the front end of their bullpens sparingly. Most of Cleveland’s top setup men can be used for multiple innings, and don’t need pulled if a pinch-hitter is used.

The offense


Indians pitchers will be facing a Manny Ramirez completely different than his regular-season statistics indicate. Manny torched the Angels, hitting .375/.615/1.125 for the series, including a mammoth home run over the Monster to win Game 2. The Indians’ top slugger, Travis Hafner, is also hitting closer to his career numbers than his season stats; he hit .316/.414/.551 in September. But these two are the best of good ensembles, not offenses unto themselves; Boston lead the league in walks, and finished third in runs. Cleveland’s lineup boasts seven hitters with at least 10 home runs, and five with at least 20.

Conclusion

I believe this is going to be a very competitive series. Neither team seems to have a huge advantage in any one area. This series is probably going at least six games—that means four games in which either C.C. Sabathia or Fausto Carmona pitch. Because of the off days, the Indians can stick to a short bullpen, and minimize the outs their lesser arms have to get. Their offense is coming off an impressive performance in the ALDS, with almost everyone in the lineup having a good series. Winning the pennant isn’t going to be easy, but the Indians have the talent in place to do it.

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The New York Yankees came into the postseason a hot team; they had gone a league-best 51-25 in the second half of the season thanks mostly to a much-improved starting rotation. That modest improvement was more than enough help to an offense that needed little. The addition of talented youngsters Phillip Hughes and Joba Chamberlain put the finishing touches on a 94-win season.

The Cleveland Indians likewise finished well, running past the Detroit Tigers in August and September to win the AL Central. The Indians relied on their strong starting staff to keep afloat during an post-Break offensive drought; when the team started to score runs again, the pitching drove the Indians to 96 wins and their first playoff appearance in six years.

The opening game of the series was influenced mostly by Bruce Froemming's miniscule strike zone, which conveniently expanded after the game was no longer in doubt. Chien-Ming Wang didn't make it through five innings, and C.C. Sabathia barely made it through the fifth. Wang’s sinker wasn't sinking, and those pitches on the periphery of the plate weren't being called strikes. The Indians turned a tense 4-3 contest into a blowout after chasing Wang and pummeling his successor, Ross Ohlendorf.

Game two featured the only two quality starts of the series. Fausto Carmona dominated, pitching nine innings and allowed just three hits. Andy Pettitte had to pitch differently keeping the Indians off balance, and defusing rally after rally. Midges, prematurely hatched by the unseasonably warm weather, emerged from Lake Erie late in regulation, bugging players on both sides, most notably Joba Chamberlain, whose two wild pitches plated the tying run. Travis Hafner’s bases-loaded single in the 11th ended a string of 16 fruitless at-bats with RISP.

In Games three and four, the Yankees were again forced to pull their starters early. Roger Clemens left Game Three in the third inning with a hamstring injury; Phillip Hughes filled in admirably, buying the Yankees enough time to get to Indians starter Jake Westbrook in the fifth and sixth innings. Armed with a five-run lead, Chamberlain and Rivera closed out the game.

Chien-Ming Wang made his second start of the series on short rest, and he again was unable to keep his sinker down in the strike zone. He was pulled in the second inning, but this time the Indians’ pitching held up. Starter Paul Byrd and his mystical array of junk gave the Indians five innings, and the bullpen finished the game, with closer Joe Borowski walking the tightrope in the ninth.

As a team, the Indians did several things well:

Their relief pitching was outstanding, allowing just two earned runs in the series, and striking out 15 in 14 innings pitched. Rafael Perez pitched six of those innings, going multiple-inning stints in all three of his appearances. He was a key tactical weapon against the Yankees’ lefty-heavy lineup.

Indians hitters collected 20 walks, doing to Yankee pitchers what their offense usually does to opposing pitchers. More to the point, those walks were the end result of the hitters being patient against struggling pitchers. Perhaps those pitchers were going to struggle anyway, but the Indians didn’t give them any breaks.

Among the many outstanding individual performances:

Carmona (9.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 5 SO): pitched nine innings (two of which involved dealing with midges) of three-hit ball in game two. On his final pitch, he struck out Alex Rodriguez on a mid-90s sinker.

Kenny Lofton (16 AB, .375/.444/.438) drove in four runs in game one, all with two outs. Jhonny Peralta (15 AB, .467/.579/.667) barely missed a home run in game two, and had three hits in game four. Grady Sizemore (16 AB, .375/.524/.688) seemed to be in the middle of everything, from scoring on Joba Chamberlain’s wild pitch in Game 2, to leading off Game 4 with a home run.

In addition to the regulars producing, the Indians got production from their bench. Trot Nixon, who was inserted into the Game 3 lineup for his ability to hit Roger Clemens, hit a home run off the Rocket in his first at-bat. Jason Michaels doubled in his only at-bat of the series. And Kelly Shoppach, who was in game four’s lineup because he was Paul Byrd’s personal catcher, went 2-for-3 with a double.

The biggest decision Indians manager Eric Wedge made in this series was who to pitch in Game 4: CC Sabathia (on three days’ rest), or Paul Byrd, who had gotten lit up in his only game against the Yankees this season. Byrd looked even worse when you look at his platoon splits (LHB hit .322/.345/.459 against him in 2007), given the leftie-heavy lineup the Yankees put out to face him. But the Indians had the lead in the series, and Sabathia had pitched on short rest just one other time in his career (September 2001), and that start involved a strict pitch count. The decision paid off: Byrd went five innings, and both C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona will be available and well rested for the ALCS.

In my series preview, I noted four things the Indians needed to do to beat the Yankees: limit walks, have the better starting pitching, utilize their bullpen whenever possible, and use the depth of the lineup to get to the Yankees’ starters. In other words, play from in front. The Indians followed this formula in two of their wins, and Fausto Carmona’s great performance allowed them to stick around long enough to tie and eventually win a third.

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The Yankees' strength is first and foremost scoring runs. They have both patience (.366 OBP) and power (.463 slugging percentage); they rank first in the AL in both categories. They can even steal a base (123, fourth in the AL). Even by Yankees standards, this year's offense is one of their best. Alex Rodriguez is the headliner, but Jorge Posada is also having an incredible year, hitting .338/.426/.543 as a switch-hitting catcher. If their offense can get a lead, the combination of Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera makes coming back late difficult.
So how do the Indians match up against the Yankees, and how can they win this series?

Limiting Walks

To me, the heart of this series is the matchup of the Indians’ very good starting pitching versus the Yankees’ great lineup. Because of what the Indians’ pitchers do (or, more exactly, what they don’t do), I believe that they’ll succeed where others have failed.

The Indians' pitching staff has been remarkably good at throwing strikes. Tribe pitchers walked the fewest batters of any AL staff. C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland's ace, has been especially economical with his pitches (walking just 37 in 241 innings). Paul Byrd (scheduled to pitch game four) is also stingy with walks, though he has much less margin for error than Sabathia. Rafael Betancourt, the Indians’ top setup man, has walked just nine batters all season. In other words, the Indians staff is built to take away what the Yankees offense runs on: the walk.

The rotation

But the Indians rotation doesn’t just throw strikes: It prevents runs better than anyone else. Tribe starters rank first in the AL in ERA and innings pitched, even with three projected starters missing time due to injury or ineffectiveness. Sabathia, who the Yankees haven’t seen in three seasons, is one of baseball’s best pitchers. Fausto Carmona, his ill-fated stint as closer behind him, went from reliever to sixth starter to Cy Young candidate in the span of 12 months. Jake Westbrook, former Yankees farmhand, has posted a 3.44 ERA in the second half of the season. Byrd has been a nice innings eater, an improvement over his disappointing 2006 season.

While the Indians missed out on the eight-day ALDS, they can take advantage of facing the Yankees’ third and fourth starters. After their top two starters, the Yankees don’t really know what they’ll be getting, whether it be Roger Clemens or Mike Mussina. Clemens has made just two starts in September, his most recent one was on the 16th, and hasn’t been able to go very deep into games; the last time he pitched seven innings or more was July 23rd. Mussina ended the season with a decent September, but his last start against the Orioles (5 IP, 11 H, 6 ER) doesn’t exactly instill confidence that he’s turned his season around.

The bullpen

Because the Indians’ starters have gone deep into games, the primary relievers in the Tribe bullpen come into the postseason rested and effective. Betancourt, perhaps the American League’s best reliever, has been consistently good for several years now, but he got some help this season. Rafael Perez, a starter turned reliever, has rendered left-handed hitters helpless (to the tune .145/.209/.241). Perez isn’t just a left-handed specialist, though; he’ll go multiple innings in an appearance. Jensen Lewis has emerged down the stretch as the key sixth or seventh inning reliever; he blanked Detroit for three innings on September 18th. If given a lead, the bullpen, including (gulp) Joe Borowski will more times than not keep it.

The offense

The Indians are a bit above average in most offensive categories, but thanks to their pitching, didn’t need to have a lot of offense to win. That need may change for this series, but there are some reasons to believe that the Indians will be able to get even better production than their averages indicate.

Run production has been down from 2006, but the offense has gotten better towards the end of the season. Gaping holes were filled with the additions of Franklin Gutierrez (for Trot Nixon), Asdrubal Cabrera (for Josh Barfield), and Kenny Lofton (for an injured David Dellucci). In a nice bonus, all three of the replacements are better defensively than the players they supplanted.

Travis Hafner, who signed a large contract extension during the season, hasn’t had a season worthy of the money he’ll soon be getting; he’s hit an unPronk-like .266/.385/.451 in 2007. But there is hope: he hit .316/.414/.551 in September. Victor Martinez has hit well all season, posting career highs in slugging percentage, home runs, and doubles. Thanks to a platoon scheme with Ryan Garko and Kelly Shoppach, Victor’s played more first base this season, keeping his bat in the lineup while keeping him rested.

What the Indians do have is power throughout the lineup: five hitters have over 20 home runs, and seven have hit at least 10. Hitting one out is the easiest way to score against playoff pitching (the pitcher only has to make one mistake), and the Indians will have players throughout their lineup who can take advantage of that one mistake. Jhonny Peralta has hit 16 of his 21 home runs at Jacobs Field, so the home field advantage should help him.

Conclusion

To win against the Yankees, you need to play from out in front; the New York offense and back end relief is much too difficult to attempt to play catch up. To that end, the Indians are well equipped to combat these strengths. Their starting pitching is a decided advantage, and they have a bullpen that can keep a lead, at least until the ninth inning. Add in home field advantage and the “short” ALDS schedule, and you can begin to understand why the Indians should win this divisional series.

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1. So what's with all these platoons?

They're pretty affordable, for starters. David Dellucci and Jason Michaels, the left field platoon, will be making $5.75 million between them this season, about half of what Carlos Lee will be making in 2007. And effective platoons can turn two part-time players into a pretty good amalgamation of a full-timer:
Dellucci vs RHP, career: .271/.359/.468 (.208/.275/.315 vs LHP)
Michaels vs LHP, career: .303/.387/.464 (.268/.342/.394 vs RHP)

In this case, the Indians already had Michaels, who was destined for either a non-tender or at the very least a demotion to the bench, on hand. They signed Dellucci to a three-year deal, then extended the arbitration-eligible Michaels through 2008 with a team option stuck on the end of the deal, so they could keep the pair together through 2009.

Signing Trot Nixon didn't really create a platoon; it merely replaced one of the participants. Shin-Soo Choo was supposed to be platooning with Casey Blake in right field; now he'll be in Buffalo. Ryan Garko is the third leg of the platoon; he'll play first against left-handers, while Casey Blake will move in from the outfield to play there against southpaws. Got all that?

Will all this platooning work? It can if manager Eric Wedge can effectively divvy out the playing time, and stick to the platoon even if it involves sitting the hot hand. And, of course, everyone staying healthy is going to be factor, especially when the discussion includes Nixon.

2. So why is Ryan Garko stuck behind Casey Blake?

To answer that question, let’s first review where Ryan came from. The Indians drafted him in the third round of the 2003 draft as a senior catcher. He got poor marks from scouts as a defender, but also was an outstanding hitter. Of course, if he couldn’t stay behind the plate, he wasn’t much of a prospect, right? Garko remained a catcher throughout much of his minor-league career, and while his defense was still thought not good enough, he continued to hit, to the point where his offense justified a move out from behind the plate. He played first base in 2005’s Arizona Fall League, and moved there permanently the next season, splitting his time between Buffalo and Cleveland.

So it's mainly his defense. I'd say when he reaches the point of serviceability, the job will be his. The Indians would love to solve everything by having Travis Hafner play more at first, leaving Garko his more natural position of designated hitter, but Pronk's elbow has given him problems when he's played in the field. So the temporary fix is to ease him into playing every day. Blake is the primary backup at several other positions, so Garko should be able to get fairly regular at-bats.

3. Can Jhonny Peralta remain at shortstop?

Last season saw Peralta regress dramatically both on offense and defense. His range, which was never good, deteriorated greatly. He was charged by the Indians front office to work on his defense over the winter, and the early returns are promising; he's looked much better this spring. He also underwent Lasik surgery to correct nearsightedness, which won't be a panacea, but can't hurt, either.

Jhonny’s struggles at the plate, more specifically, were mainly due to his failure to adjust to pitchers’ new game plans against him. In 2005, Peralta was very adept at hitting fastballs on the outside portion of the plate to the opposite field; last season opposing pitchers adjusted by setting him up inside with hard stuff, and then throwing breaking pitches that tailed away from him, which he would invariably chase. He’ll need to adjust his approach to counter this.
Last year's offense overcame Peralta's Wile E. Coyote-style offensive plunge to the tune of 870 runs, but much more is expected of Jhonny. There's not much on the depth chart behind Peralta (Luis Rivas and Mike Rouse are the current front-runners to back him up), so he's the guy for now. If he can regain some semblance of his former hitting prowess, I’d venture that the Indians (and their fans) would be more apt to overlook some of his defensive shortcomings.

4. Will quantity over quality work in the bullpen?

The Indians gave out four one-year deals to relievers this winter, hoping that there was safety in numbers. Keith Foulke, who was probably going to be the team's closer, retired before throwing a single pitch, elevating Joe Borowski into ninth inning duties. Borowski carries with him his own set of injury questions.
Roberto Hernandez and Aaron Fultz were also brought in on one-year deals. Hernandez, who’s 42, still has the stuff to be an effective setup man, while Fultz, who's the lone left-hander in the bullpen, should rack up a lot of appearances. The three signings by themselves aren't going to vault the Tribe bullpen to elite status; they're intended to just get the relief corps back to respectability.

The real key to an improved bullpen is whether Fernando Cabrera and Jason Davis, the bullpen's "live arms," can take on much more meaningful roles. Cabrera rarely was able to combine command and control at the same time last season, and was a huge disappointment. Davis, who's been in every pitching role imaginable in his five major-league seasons, has had trouble pitching out of jams, a flaw you absolutely can’t have in a middle reliever. Both pitchers are out of options, so it's sink-or-swim time for them. And as they go, so the Tribe bullpen will go.

5. Will Eric Wedge be fired if the Indians don't make the playoffs?

A qualified yes. The qualification is there because general manager Mark Shapiro likes continuity, and may give Wedge another year if the Indians come close. But if the team tanks like they did in 2006? He's gone; results at some point have to matter, and there's simply too much talent on the roster to accept another losing season.

Wedge's perceived flaw, at least the one espoused most frequently by the local writers and talk-show hosts, are the team's lack of fundamentals, which can include things like bunting, stealing, hit-and-running, clutch hitting, fielding percentages, sacrifice hits, and other various Little Things. Yes, for a market that most recently marveled at the mid-'90s offensive machines, the Little Things are extremely important. This incarnation of the Indians is likewise not inclined to succeed playing Whitey Ball; there are not many base stealers on this team, and many players you absolutely would not want even attempting to run. Grady Sizemore, who has the best wheels on the team, hits two in front of Travis Hafner, so in most cases there's no reason for him to steal a base, for he's already in scoring position with a single or a walk. In other words, the Indians are playing the style of baseball their personnel dictates they should play.

Wedge's real flaw has been his handling of bullpens, or more specifically, his insistence on assigning roles. He'll set up a pecking order by inning, and then stick to it to the point of exasperation. That's great when you have an excellent and consistent bullpen, like the Indians had in 2005, but a recipe for disaster when there are injuries or just plain inconsistency. Last season, three relievers went on the DL in April, and the bullpen never really recovered. The result was a team with a losing record (78-84, to be exact) that also happened to outscore the opposition by 88 runs. That's a huge disconnect between their actual record and what they should have done. There wasn't a particular week or even month that the bullpen caused havoc; the havoc was spread quite consistently over the entire season. This is a bit of “black box” analysis, but constructing a somewhat reliable bullpen is one of the few things I believe a manager and pitching coach should be able to do on a regular basis. The bullpen is always going to be small Sample Size Theater, and in cases of instability, the manager should be playing general manager on a micro scale, assigning roles and appearances based on their latest observations. For whatever reason, Wedge wasn’t able to adjust after the bullpen fell apart in April.

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1. How did the Indians win 93 games in 2005?

I’d say the biggest reason was health. Everyone in the rotation made 30 starts, and the projected starting lineup remained largely intact throughout the season. Part of that may have to do with the overall youth of the team, but to stay that healthy over the course of a year was very fortunate nevertheless.

Another important reason was team defense. The Indians finished third in Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER) in 2005, which helped their ball-in-play pitchers immensely. Cliff Lee and Scott Elarton, flyball pitchers, were helped by the ranges of Grady Sizemore and Coco Crisp in left and center, respectively, as well as the surprisingly good performance of Casey Blake in right. Jake Westbrook and Bob Wickman, both groundball dependent, were helped by good defensive performances from Ronnie Belliard and Jhonny Peralta. While the pitching performances were good in and of themselves, the defense made them look very good.

A third reason was the emergence of Sizemore and Peralta. Both were promising young players, but I don’t think many anticipated this kind of production this early in their careers. The Indians brought in Juan Gonzalez and Alex Cora to help ease the two young players into a full-time job, but their services weren’t needed. Peralta had the highest Equivalent Average (EqA) of AL shortstops (.310), and Sizemore was first among AL center fielders (.295). That injection of young talent made a pretty good offense even better.

Finally, the bullpen was incredible. Wickman got a lot of the credit, but the setup men did most of the heavy lifting. Bob Howry and Arthur Rhodes were outstanding sharing the eighth-inning duties, Matt Miller and Scott Sauerbeck formed an effective ROOGY-LOOGY platoon, and Rafael Betancourt was extremely good in a hybrid setup-middle relief role.

2. Why trade Coco Crisp?

The short answer: Andy Marte.

The long answer: Boston, after losing Johnny Damon to New York, had a gigantic hole in center field to fill and no one left in free agency to fill it. The Indians took advantage of this need by trading a player less valuable to them and more valuable to Boston for a player that would not normally be available to them. Moreover, Marte fills an organizational hole: Matt Whitney and Corey Smith, two high draft picks, had faltered in the past couple years, leaving Kevin Kouzmanoff as the best the system had to offer.

But, in order for the deal to work, a decent patch in left field had to be obtained. At first, the Indians tried to woo Brian Giles and Nomar Garciaparra via free agency, and when the two signed elsewhere, they explored the trade market. There were some rumors floated about Ryan Langerhans, but eventually the replacement was Jason Michaels, a fourth outfielder who hadn’t really gotten a chance in Philadelphia.

From a philosophical standpoint, the trade highlights what Mark Shapiro is trying to do in Cleveland: contend every season but also build for the future.

3. So who exactly will make up the 2006 bullpen?

Four of the 2005 regulars (Wickman, Miller, Sauerbeck, and Betancourt) will return in 2006. Guillermo Mota is projected to take over for Arthur Rhodes as the team’s primary setup man, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Fernando Cabrera gets some high leverage experience before the year is over. Cabrera is the logical choice to take over for Wickman as closer in 2007, and he is one of baseball’s most promising relief prospects. Andrew Brown, the PTBNL in the Milton Bradley trade, is in the running for the last bullpen spot, as are reanimation projects Steve Karsay and Danny Graves, and Jason Davis, last year’s sixth starter.

Bullpens are by nature volatile creatures, and when the top two relievers in your bullpen are injury risks, the chances of flameout increase all the more. But the Indians still have enough depth where total collapse seems unlikely. The great bullpen numbers last year were an ensemble achievement, not the handiwork of two or three relievers.

4. Why can’t the Indians find any productive corner bats?

It is amusing that the Indians’ best offensive players (save Travis Hafner) are up the middle on the diamond, and their biggest liabilities are at traditional power positions. Marte should fill one hole, and once Ryan Garko learns how to play first base he should evict Ben Broussard from the lineup. But that’s probably a couple months away from happening. To illustrative the massive difference in production, here’s PECOTA’s 2006 VORP projections:

Up the Middle
Victor Martinez: 30.6
Jhonny Peralta: 34.1
Ronnie Belliard: 14.8
Grady Sizemore: 36.5

Corners
Ben Broussard/Eduardo Perez: 25.1
Aaron Boone: 7.4
Casey Blake: 8.3
Jason Michaels: 17.3

Marte and Garko are just about ready to play at the major league level, but if the Indians need to upgrade in right field this season, they’ll probably have to look outside the organization. Franklin Gutierrez and Brad Snyder are both promising outfield prospects, but they aren’t really ready. If Aaron Boone is pulling his weight, the Indians might entertain moving Marte to the outfield on a short-term basis.

5. How will the revamped pitching staff fare?

The Indians brought in Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson to replace Kevin Millwood and Elarton in the rotation. Byrd and Johnson came cheaper than the pitchers they replaced, but will they be as productive?

Because the offense didn’t take advantage of Millwood’s outstanding pitching performance, the Indians were a below-.500 team (14-16) on days when Kevin started. Which is mind-boggling considering the Indians finished fourth in the AL in runs scored. So while it’ll be difficult to replace Millwood’s 2005 production (52.3 VORP), replacing Millwood’s wins will be fairly easy to do, assuming the offense treats Byrd better than it did Millwood.

You can say the exact opposite of Lee, who went 18-5 despite posting inferior numbers to Millwood; he got tremendous run support in 2005, and he will probably win fewer games even if he’s better production-wise.

Now let’s look at production.

2005 VORP
Kevin Millwood: 52.3
Cliff Lee: 39.8
CC Sabathia: 35.3
Jake Westbrook: 15.4
Scott Elarton: 17.6
Total: 160.4

2006 VORP (projected)
CC Sabathia: 33.0
Cliff Lee: 21.4
Paul Byrd: 19.1
Jake Westbrook: 28.2
Jason Johnson: 15.5
Total: 117.2

The biggest difference is between Millwood v. 2005 and Byrd v. 2006. For what it’s worth, Millwood’s projected VORP with Texas is 25.0, so Byrd looks like a better bang for the buck. Westbrook has the highest projected improvement, and Cliff Lee the largest projected regression.

This is a rotation of inning-eaters: each pitcher threw at least 195 innings in 2005. If someone gets hurt or becomes ineffective, Fausto Carmona and Jeremy Sowers are next in line. Beyond those two, the Indians can call on Stanford, Davis, Jeremy Guthrie, and Kazuhito Tadano if need be; the organization is blessed with a lot of young pitching depth.

In Conclusion ...

The Indians have the pieces to contend again this season, but they might need to upgrade the offense at some point during the season. The starting staff needs a breakout season from Sabathia to counter the loss of Millwood. The team needs better production from Boone: if not, Marte is a phone call away. The back end of the bullpen needs to stay healthy. All those issues aside, the Indians should be a strong team in a very competitive AL Central.

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