The Hardball Times -- Troy Patterson

The Nationals’ stellar rotation

Troy Patterson — 2012-07-18T09:00:15+00:00

The Nationals took some chances this offseason, going after two potential strong arms who have suffered control issues in their young careers. Counting on their own young talent to supplement the reinforcements left most analysts expecting growing pains from the Washington franchise. The team has been a nice surprise, and with a playoff-contending Orioles team right next door, there is some interesting baseball to be played in August in the DC area for the first time in a long time.

The Nationals made two key pickups this offseason by adding Athletics starter Gio Gonzalez and free agent Edwin Jackson. Gonzalez was a target by many teams over the winter, but his control issues were a big question, and some wondered if leaving Oakland would hurt his numbers. Jackson had the same questions, as his control has been good some years and bad in others.

Gio Gonzalez

The move to the NL was sure to help Gonzalez, but while his ERA was near 3.00 the past two years, his skills suggested that mark would be closer to 4.00 in a neutral park. His home runs-per-fly ball the past two seasons averaged near eight percent, which was sure to rise when he left the AL West. That hasn't been the case so far this season as his HR/FB has been 5.2 percent, suggesting some ability to limit home runs.

The big change has been that Gonzalez has gone from a solid strikeout pitcher with worrying walk totals to a dominating ace. His strikeouts-per-nine innings has jumped from 7.67 in 2009 to 8.78 in 2011 and has climbed again in 2012 to 10.62 through 107.2 innings. That improvement, on top of a slight drop in walks, has given him a 3.02 K/BB this year, far and away the best mark of his career.

For those worried about his strikeout rate being unsustainable, Gonzalez has some positive signs above and beyond simply moving to the NL. His velocity has increased for the second straight season, and his drop in contact rate seems to go with the lower contact rate of NL hitters.

Edwin Jackson

The addition of Jackson has not been as stellar, but he is a solid addition and is giving them fair value for his contract. He is clearly a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher, but Jackson's 3.89 ERA is thirtieth among starters in the NL with qualified innings. That's a fair return for the Nationals' $11 million owed to Jackson this season.

Unlike Gonzalez, it appears Jackson is pitching much the same as he did last season. His strikeout and walk rates are nearly identical, and his groundball rate is, as well. He has seen some luck with a BABIP of .251, but it shouldn't worry the Nationals too much.

Depending on the outcome of the 2012 campaign, the Nationals probably would love to bring Jackson back next season on a similar deal, but with Scott Boras running the show, that seams unlikely. While he has been solid this season, Jackson is going to be 29 next season, and signing him to a long-term deal at similar money to this one would be a mistake.

The returning pitchers

The Nationals had some injury concerns with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann. Also, Ross Detwiler has never topped 100 innings in the majors. Strasburg is the staff ace and while he has dominated this season, his velocity is still down a bit from his first season in 2010. His long-term health should be a question mark, but the encouraging signs are all there. He has returned to strikeout rates over 30 percent and is not walking hitters often, which frequently is an issue after Tommy John surgery.

The one pitcher who looks to be pitching well beyond his skill right now is Zimmermann. His ERA stands at 2.48, but his numbers just don't look like he can sustain that for the rest of the year. His strikeout rate and walk rate are both similar or slightly worse than last season. This isn't all bad, as no one went in expected anything near this from Zimmermann. His FIP of 3.59 is something much closer to what you would have called a "good" season for Zimmermann and what we should expect in the second half.

The Nationals rotation hasn't been just luck and surprise. They are a really good staff who have only youth to limit their expectations. There maybe some hiccups in the second half, but the rotation should be strong enough to keep Washington in the NL East title race. The offense, on the other hand, may be limited and will need to show some improvement to make a playoff run. The fact that Strasburg is the sixth-best player based on positional WAR and Zimmermann is tenth should be sign enough that the offense must get better.

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Latos dealing with Great American Ballpark

Troy Patterson — 2012-06-27T09:03:15+00:00

After an offseason trade that sent Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal to the Padres, the Reds ended up with Mat Latos. As a strikeout pitcher who is by no means a flyball pitcher, it was debatable excatly how much Latos would struggle leaving the friendly home of Petco Park. The switch has been worse than anyone could have predicted so far, but is Latos doomed to be a mediocre pitcher in a home run park?

Mat Latos (US Presswire)

Through 15 starts this season, Latos has been almost the exact same pitcher as before when you break down his numbers. His velocity is the same, as well as his strikeouts and walks per inning pitched. He still has a ratio of groundballs to flyballs that is close to one.

The only difference is that this season Latos has given up 17 home runs in 15 starts, while he gave up 16 long balls in 31 starts last year. The season before, he gave up the exact same 16 home runs in 31 starts.

The problem clearly is Great American Ball Park, as his home park accounts for 12 of his home runs compared to just five on the road. His teammates have suffered the same fate, with only Johnny Cueto among the starters having a HR/FB rate under 10 percent.

The team as a whole has suffered from higher HR/FB rates since calling Great American Ball Park home. The league average has been down the past few years but still around 10 to 11 percent each year. The Reds pitchers, though, have had to deal with a higher rate. Since 2009, their rate has only been below 12 percent once.

All of this would make an expectation of Latos' HR/FB rate returning to his "normal" range—or even the league average—tough to predict. His xFIP stands at 3.92, which is up a bit from his career level of 3.58. That 3.92 is probably still out of reach since that projects a HR/FB mark of 11 percent.

It's difficult to see anything else besides home runs being a problem for Latos this season. His movement is right in line with historical data, as well as his velocity. The only pitch that stands out as a concern might be his sinker or two-seamer depending on the Pitch-f/x classification. According to Fangraphs, it has been costing the Reds 3.36 runs for every 100 thrown.

That pitch historically has been his worst for home runs with a HR/(FB+LD) rate of 12.5 percent, but in 2012 that rate now stands at 17.9 percent. Seems like something he should cut back on, as it had been average before but is terrible in the new park.

If Latos could stop throwing the two-seamer without making any other changes, he could perhaps improve his numbers, even with the overall home run troubles still hanging around. In the end, he still wouldn't be anywhere near his numbers in San Diego. The Reds gave up a lot to add Latos as a rotation anchor and have to be a bit disappointed what they have received so far, but to have expected him not to struggle would have been short sighted.

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The Knuckleball as a strikeout pitch

Troy Patterson — 2012-06-19T09:45:15+00:00

R.A. Dickey (US Presswire)

The knuckleball pitch is known for a few things, but control and strikeouts aren't one of them. Of the best in history at throwing the knuckleball none has ever even approached striking out a batter an inning. The closest to that was Hoyt Wilhelm who threw 90 strikeouts in 93 innings of work in 1962. None of the rest even came close including Jesse Haines, Phil Niekro, Tim Wakefield or Tom Candiotti.

This season, however, after 103 career starts and 826 innings pitched R.A. Dickey has thrown a strikeout per inning through 13 games and 90 innings. Before this season Dickey struck out less than 6 batters every nine innings and had a season high of 134 strikeouts in 208.2 innings pitched last season.

Wakefield might be the only solid comparison during the Pitch F/x era and he threw what would be considered a batting practice knuckleball compared to Dickey. Wakefield had a knuckleball that averaged 66 mph in his career and would top out at 75 in his younger years. Dickey was around 70 mph a few years ago, but has been averaging 76 the past two years and has a "blazing" 84 mph fastball compared to Wakefield.

In the past two years Dickey has also weaned off his change up and is almost exclusively a two pitch pitcher. He throws 85 percent knuckleballs, which is very similar to Wakefield in his career. It's tough to say if taking what Wakefield did and adding 10 mph to his knuckleball would have made him a better strikeout pitcher, but it could help explain his success so far. Dickey has only been throwing the knuckleball since 2005 and varied his usage from season to season.

Trying to look into the "movement" of the knuckleball is pretty much a lost cause. His average knuckleball has essentially no vertical or horizontal movement. Of course, the movement of each pitch varies wildly and it's tough to say if he's doing anything differently. It does appear to be hitting the zone more as his ball percentage is down from 34 percent in 2011 to 31 percent this season.

His knuckleball also has a 28 percent whiff rate, which is up from 21 percent in his career. It's tough to compare him to anyone else as he is the only pitcher in baseball using the knuckleball right now. And other than Wakefield there hasn't been another pure knuckleball thrown in baseball during the pitch f/x era according to Fangraphs.

It's hard to see Dickey keeping up this level of strikeouts as not only has he never done this before, but no leading knuckleball pitcher has done this in baseball. Batters are swinging at pitches more out of the zone and making less contact on strikes. The easy assumption is that those numbers will return to normal, but since the knuckleball is so hard to break down it's just possible that Dickey has it figured out. If he does and wins the Cy Young he would be the first pure knuckleballer in history to win the award.

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The power of Adam Jones

Troy Patterson — 2012-06-06T09:04:15+00:00

Adam Jones (US Presswire)

There has been no bigger breakout this season than Adam Jonesin Baltimore as his power and defense are at career highs.

With the Orioles still hanging around at the top of the AL East, the big question right now is how real is the power, and will he still be dominating pitchers this September?

In the first 54 games, Jones has been slugging at a career-high rate. His best season before now was 2011 when he slugged .466, but so far this season he has jumped over 100 points to .602.

That is a huge jump and about the only thing 2012 Jones is doing much better than 2011 Jones.

While Jones has gotten better in his contact at the plate, he has never had much patience. This season is no exception with a 5.6 percent walk rate compared to a career rate of 4.9 percent. He won't be leading the league in on-base percentage any time soon, but that doesn't take away from his other skills.

While his walks are at career levels, his strikeout rate has dropped to a career low of 16.7 percent, which has helped him post a .315 batting average so far this season. Obviously, hitting 16 homers and the .287 ISO have helped as well.

Only three other players this season currently have a walk rate under six percent and more than 10 home runs. None of those three (Dayan Viciedo, J.J. Hardy and Adrian Beltre) have more than 12 long balls, and only Viciedo has a strikeout rate above 14 percent. That isn't to say it's not possible to be a great power hitter with a low walk rate, but there are few who do it well. Last year followed much the same pattern as only Hardy and Beltre had a walk rate lower than six percent and topped 30 homers.

You would think Jones is benefiting from playing in Camden Yards with his pull power. Here is a graph showing his 2012 hit data.

Adam Jones Hit Chart, texasleaguers.com

That approach surely will benefit him, although he does spray a bit to right field, which might hurt him at home. The thing is, Jones has done much better on the road with 11 homers coming away from Camden Yards. If he starts to use his home park, it's possible we could see Jones become the 2012 version of Curtis Granderson. Even regression projection systems like ZIPS update his projected HR total for 2012 to 34.

I'm curious if Jones can maintain this new level without any changes at the plate. It's tough to say this is anything more than either luck or a growth in natural power. Jones is not swinging at any more pitches with a 53-percent swing rate versus a career rate of 54.5 percent. He's also making the same level of contact on pitches in and out of the zone.

Without any major changes, it's tough to see Jones maintaining this level of power. I also wonder when his power at home will match the road numbers. In his career, he has hit for slightly more power at home, making it possible he could even be better right now. That should be a scary thought for AL East opponents for years to come.

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Chris Sale goes from reliever to ace

Troy Patterson — 2012-05-30T07:47:15+00:00

Chris Sale(US Presswire)

The Chicago White Sox had entered 2012 with Chris Sale pegged for a rotation spot after dominating in 100 innings as a reliever in 2011. Sale was given five starts before elbow soreness caused the White Sox to change their mind.

The White Sox decided to move Sale to the closer role in response to the elbow problem. I can't say I understood this one at all after so many injuries seen in the past few years to pitchers being moved back and forth from the rotation to the pen.

The move didn't last long. Sale made one relief appearance and convinced the team to send him back to the starting rotation. He also has a clean MRI and things have only gotten better since then.

After 10 appearances overall, Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball with a 6-2 record and an ERA of 2.34. His strikeouts per nine have been stellar even though dropping a bit from his role as a reliever. His rate stands at 9.52 so far this season, down only slightly from 10.01 last season in the pen.

On top of dominating hitters Sale is also walking fewer. Last year Sale was throwing in the zone 49 percent of the time; for this season he is at 51 percent. Hitters are swinging at 45 percent of pitches up from 41 percent in relief last season.

So Sale is hitting the zone more and hitters are swinging more, although they are making more contact. Sale is falling behind early, with his first pitch strikes down from 60 percent to 52 percent this season. It hasn't hurt him so far, but getting the first strike should help maintain his early success. (The league average this season is 59 percent first pitch strikes.)

The really interesting data are in Sale's splits. Since he's a left-hander, you might assume his numbers are best against lefties. In fact, he's been close to just as good against righties.

Overall his K/BB against lefties stands at 3.44 in his career and 3.14 against righties. The difference is minimal and comes down to a great change-up he uses on right handed hitters. He uses mainly his fastball and slider on left-handers, but goes with four pitches against the right-handers (fastball, sinker, slider and change-up).

The slider is very impressive and has a whiff rate this season of 46.9 percent, which is about 27 percent better than league average for change-ups. Right-handers have just as much trouble with it, whiffing 48 percent of the time on the slider.

After 10 games and nearly two months of the season, Sale is top ten in the league in ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA. He has been a bit lucky with a BABIP of .264 and a HR/FB of 6.1 percent. None of those are enough to make him look less appealing in the rotation, and you would hope the White Sox feel the same way.

Even with the regression that ZiPs is projecting, he would finish with 13 wins, 180 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.27. The White Sox will need Sale and Jake Peavy to maintain their excellent starts to stay in the playoff hunt. As long as he stays healthy and has no future elbow troubles, Sale should establish himself as one of the better starters in the AL.

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Has Daniel Bard been squeezed?

Troy Patterson — 2012-05-22T06:22:15+00:00

Never a great control pitcher, but known for his strikeouts, Daniel Bard this year has had even more trouble keeping hitters from getting free passes. His strikeouts have dropped as well, and he is struggling even with the outstanding number of ground balls he is inducing.

He is having his worst season of his career hitting the zone, but for comparison I included his zone percentage as given by PITCHf/x as apposed to theuUmpire.

      	      Zone %    Zone % Pitch f/x
      2009    51.70%      50.80%
      2010    47.80%      50.90%
      2011    48.30%      52.90%
      2012    43.50%         51%

It looks like he was squeezed slightly in 2010 and 2011, but this season umpires have been really tough on Bard. There is a 7.5 percentage point difference between the two. For comparison, the league average pitcher has a 45.4 percent in-zone by umpires and according to PITCHf/x they're throwing 45.4 percent in the zone.

Trying to identify why umpires are squeezing him I broke it down by pitches. His change-up was the first suspect, as it is a pitch he is using significantly more. It is a strike 54 percent of the time, which includes foul balls and swings out of the zone. Here is his strike chart showing it hasn't been called too tightly

Daniel Bard 2012 Change-up

Before we look at the slider and fastball, we should get an idea of how many pitches umpires have "missed." Bard has thrown 702 pitches this season and that seven percent would represent 49 pitches. It looks like those pitches are represented in the next two slides for fastballs and sliders.

Daniel Bard 2012 Fastball

Daniel Bard 2012 Slider

Clearly Bard has suffered from some tight calls up in the zone with fastballs and down in the zone with the slider. Seems like a lot of close calls as well that could be given the benefit of the doubt for the umpire. Bard's slider is probably the bigger concern as he is clearly hitting the corner and not getting the call.

While there is some amount of data to suggest Bard is being squeezed, he's also not doing the job himself. He's also not getting swings on his out-of-the-zone pitches like he used to. In 2010 and 2011, batters swung at 32 percent of pitches out of the zone, but it looks like they are reading him better in 2012—they are swinging only 25 percent of the time.

Heading into 2012 I expected Bard could hit the zone better by dropping his velocity, but still throw the high heat when he needed it. That hasn't been the case so far and he's been worse on every front. Bard is not doing anything right now to give the Red Sox reason to defend him as a starter in the rotation and he can't blame it all on the umpires. He's going to need a turnaround soon or risk a return to the bullpen.

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Bryan LaHair is Cubs’ silver lining so far

Troy Patterson — 2012-05-15T08:20:15+00:00

Bryan LaHair of the Chicago Cubs (US Presswire)

Even after adding Anthony Rizzo this offseason the Chicago Cubs entered 2012 firmly stating Bryan LaHair would be their starting first baseman. While Rizzo was no veteran, he had 169 plate appearances to LaHair's 219 dating back to 2008 with the Mariners. Surely the Cubs wanted to give Rizzo some more seasoning, but at age 29, LaHair was worth one more shot to see if he could be more than a Quad-A player.

LaHair has amassed 653 games at the Triple-A level and done very well with a slash line of .297/.368/.528, but with all that time spent in the Pacific Coast league, it was doubted if he could do anything like that in the majors. He received only one shot while a member of the Mariners in 2008 and hit .250/.315/.346 in 150 plate appearances.

Still playing in the Pacific Coast League with the Cubs Triple-A affiliate he continued to mash with slugging numbers of .557 and .664 in 2010 and 2011 respectively. The Cubs decided to give him a shot to finish 2011 and, while he played only 20 games, he showed the team he might be worth a longer look.

The Cubs gave him a major league minimum deal to start 2012 and handed him the keys to the first base job to start spring training. That commitment has paid off so far with LaHair hitting as arguably the second best first baseman in the NL right now. Only Joey Votto has been better. Depending on your stat of choice, you could even argue that Lahair has been the best.

How long that will last is a big question. His slugging has been amazing, but his contact has been troubling. He is striking out 30 percent of the time and swinging at pitches out of the zone a high amount (32.8 percent compared to league average of 29). His contact rate stands at 58.5 percent while league average is 67.1 percent. He might be able to smash the ball, but eventually his contact issues are going to drive his average down.

Currently, LaHair has a BABIP of .456, which is best in the league, if you believe he can keep that up. I for one won't bet on that and assume his line will look more like John Sickels of minorleagueball.com projected this offseason.

I can't see him hitting for a high batting average in the majors, but I bet he can hit .250/.330/.450 and knock 20 homers if you gave him enough at-bats.

Obviously the power numbers look primed to pass what John gave him, but the average and OBP are still distinct possibilities with LaHair striking out nearly as much as Pedro Alvarez right now.

In the long term the Cubs will be counting on Rizzo to take over the position. To his credit Rizzo has been tearing up the Pacific Coast League as well with a slash line of .338/.407/.638. The problem is with the team si x games out and not much prospect of playoffs, there is really no reason to rush Rizzo this season. It's also fairly possible LaHair plays himself into trade bait and could be moved before the year is out. The Cubs need pieces to build and at 29 years old LaHair might make a better trade piece than first baseman for the Cubs.

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Bobby Valentine will let them throw

Troy Patterson — 2012-05-01T08:53:15+00:00

In his time in Boston Terry Francona was known to be quite a stickler for pitch counts. In 2011 his pitchers averaged 97.1 pitches per game started, which was only slightly lower than his average in Boston of 98.5. While Bobby Valentine has had to count on his starters to avoid using his bullpen right now, he's had no fear in topping 100 pitches for his starters.

In April the Red Sox starters have averaged 102.4 pitches per start. Only Clay Buchholz is below 100 pitches.

Pitcher	Pitches/GS
Jon Lester	107
Josh Beckett	102.4
Clay Buchholz	98
Felix Doubront	101.5
Daniel Bard	101

It's especially interesting to see that the two starters who spent all or much of 2011 as relievers have also been allowed to go to more than 100 pitches consistently.

It wasn't like Valentine didn't warn us this spring. In an interview with Tim Britton of the Providence Journal he was quoted as saying "The one thing that doesn't compute is less is better. It doesn't match. More is better."

Valentine also said he was sent to meet with Dr. James Andrews in 1987 as a manager of the Texas Rangers, but claims he saw much of the advice as arbitrary. The interesting thing is that at the time it doesn't look like he was ready to challenge the status quo. In Texas, his staff was ahead of league averages thanks to Nolan Ryan and Charlie Hough. It looked like he was throwing pitchers quite a bit, but in New York with more pressure to control pitch counts and no longer the horses he had in Texas, his pitch counts seemed more in line with league averages.

Valentine then spent some time in Japan—with a completely different environment regarding pitch counts—and he seems to have brought that experience back to his position in Boston. Japanese pitchers have much different approaches, including throwing 200-pitch sessions between starts and plenty of pitches even before the season starts. It's difficult to say who's system is "right," but Valentine seems ready to lay his money on the eastern system.

Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that the manager with a short, two-year contract and at the age of 61 is best able to challenge the system, but should the Red Sox front office be concerned? There really hasn't been much conclusive data that proves or denies any of the pitch count rules. Year after year we see Tom Verducci write that young pitchers with big jumps in innings break down, and teams stick to their pitch rules, but year after year we see young pitchers fall to elbow and shoulder troubles. As Valentine points out, the Nationals counted and watched every pitch by Stephen Strasburg very closely, but he still fell victim to Tommy John surgery.

The issue I see is trying to set general rules based on averaged data to deal with health and injury. No two pitchers are perfectly the same and then you add in mechanics that may be good or bad. None of that is accounted for when you set a pitch limit of a general value like 100. Whether you limit pitchers to 100 or you don't, there will still be injuries and someone will claim the other system is better.

We need more intensive research with general physical stature and pitch counts. Once this is all tied to injury data you might be able to set some general rules, but even then you're dealing with something that might be too unpredictable.

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Video game review: OOTP 13 Baseball

Troy Patterson — 2012-04-24T07:35:15+00:00

I've always been a fan of general manager modes and sport simulators. My favorite one is Football Manager for those who like the beautiful game. In comparison OOTP stands up very well, but falls short in one regard. Let's take a look at the game from top to bottom.

In the 2013 version (I've not played earlier versions) of OOTP baseball you start by taking a job as general manager of a major league team. You can also choose to be coach of a minor league squad. but lose ability to move players or make major roster changes. You deal mainly with in-game decisions and roster or rotation choices. I actually enjoyed this version and it's a very good intro into the subtleties of the game. Once you take over a major league team the game makes you a GM, and I could not find a way to just coach the team. I would have liked this as an option as I felt like it missed a step.

The day to day changes can be as in depth as you want and the GM still has "manager" controls of his team. I took control of the 2012 San Diego Padres and could either allow Bud Black to take the rains of his roster or tell him what to do. It would have been interesting to have the manager be more of an independent source and have to pick coaches who agree or don't with your decisions. Once I took a GM job, I liked to allow the coach to manage the lineup, but once I gave up that control on a day to day I couldn't overrule something without turning off the control. I would have liked some way I to say, "Bud you can do anything else, but bat this guy and play him at first every game."

Screenshot of 2012 Padres Season

The interaction with free agents is very good and involves potential competitor bids and a good AI to avoid low bids. You also have to deal with your scouting department, which is only as good as you make it. Upon signing a four-star player as a shortstop, I watched him suddenly graded a one-star by the same scouting staff after half a season of flailing and being benched by the coach. I've only completed one season, but I'm sure this will follow from your future draft picks who were graded by the same scouting staff.

As a GM or a manager you can either simulate games or "manage the game" at bat by at bat. This I found to be the one area I prefer a game like Football Manager as the game flows and you can watch like a manager. I'm not sure I can think of a better way for OOTP to handle the in game, but it's a tad slow and the game is stop and go.

I have been critical of the game, but only in regards to what I think might make it better. I found the game very engaging and love the format of player engagement. You can play pretty much any league you want , and you can even replay a season from the past. You can also empty the rosters and have your own fantasy draft with the current league settings or add and subtract teams.

You also have more to do than just signing and trading players as you also have to deal with the all important budget. You have a limit and must keep amounts for extensions, new free agents, development and staff. If you fail to pay attention to this, your younger players may suffer from a lack of development money or perhaps you can no longer sign the free agent to solidify your playoff run. Also your budget can change when the season is over based on how well you did. After claiming the NL West in 2012, my Padres budget increased for the next season, but I might have had some hard choices if I hadn't made the playoffs.

The 2013 version of OOTP baseball is a real gem and great for all baseball fans. There is also an online game system I haven't had the chance to use yet. Based on the single player system, though I would highly recommend buying the game and I would give it a 9/10. If the in game system was more visual and engaging, I would easily give it a 10/10. You can purchase the game here or read more about the latest developments and game information here.

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Padilla develops the lollipop

Troy Patterson — 2012-04-10T05:37:15+00:00

This Sunday Vicente Padilla of the Red Sox showed off his lollipop curve, throwing several in a four-inning appearance against, among others, Prince Fielder. When pitching to right-handers he throws a standard curve ball in the mid 70s, but when facing left-handers he splits his curve between that one and a slow curve around 50 mph.

His lollipop curve would grade as the slowest recorded on FanGraphs, slower ever than Tim Wakefield's 60 mph curve. The pitch Padilla throws to lefties has a modest downward movement, but has a higher break, as you can see on his pitch charts.

Vicente Padilla pitch movement

The other pitches give perspective on how much higher the curve breaks versus left-handers. In the graph below you can see the separation of the two curves over the years starting in 2008 and 2009.

Padilla vertical movement by year

As you can see there is a closer grouping of curves in 2007 and 2008, but in 2009 and 2010 the two separate and his slow looping curve gets slower. While the data here can't tell us how good the new looping or lollipop curve is, we can look at how he has done against left-handers over the past five or six years.

Padilla has never been a great pitcher against left-handers, although that hasn't stopped teams from using him against lefties. He has faced 3,072 left-handers and 3,081 right handers in his career. His stats against right-handers have been good, with a career FIP of 3.74 against them. On the other hand, his FIP against left- handers before 2009 was 5.71 and he struggled to get outs.

Since the addition of the looping curve, his numbers have improved. They aren't stellar, but he's been able to become a passable pitcher against lefties. In 2009 and 2010 his FIP against lefties fell to 4.93 with the addition of the looping curve. His strikeouts per bases on balls is still low at 1.77, but compared to his career rate of 1.35 against lefties, he has improved.

We'll need to separate out his looping curve data from his regular curve to see what kind of swing data there is, but the overall data seem to show an improvement against lefties with the arrival of the "trick" pitch. Do hitters even swing at the slow curve? What do they do with it if they make contact?

This season, Padilla will be throwing in a relief role for the first time consistently since 2001. That skews the data, since his previous bullpen work was more than 10 years ago, but he was much better in the relief role. His career xFIP as a reliever is 3.15 versus 4.39 as a starter. It's fair to say Padilla might be the surprise addition to the Red Soxbull pen this season, packing a surprising looping curve that is sure to draw attention, but also gets results when he faces tough lefties. It might not be enough to make Padilla a great closer option, but if the bullpen struggles to close out games, Padilla could find himself in that role and certainly could succeed with his looping curve.

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