The Hardball Times -- Troy Patterson

Rockies building a troubling rotation

Troy Patterson — 2012-02-07T06:10:15+00:00

Humidor or not, everyone knows that the best strategy in Colorado is to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. That's why the Rockies have gotten quite a few questions after an offseason adding Guillermo Moscoso and Jeremy Guthrie. Quite an interesting approach for a team that finished 21 games out last season with an offense based around two players in Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.

Moscoso in a much friendlier place. (Icon/SMI)

In January, the Rockies added Moscoso after a solid 2011 with the Athletics when he posted an ERA of 3.38 with 74 strikeouts to 38 walks. His FIP was a solid, but unimpressive, 4.22 while his xFIP displayed a troublesome trend at 5.02. In 142.2 major league innings, Moscoso has given up 54.8 percent fly balls and his total of 55.5 percent in 2011 was the most among any pitcher with more than 120 innings. Moscoso is the ultimate fly ball pitcher and is headed to one of the three best home run parks in baseball.

In Oakland, Moscoso was able to mask his fly ball rate playing in the spacious Coliseum, which ranks bottom five in home runs against. His HR/FB rate currently stands at 6 percent, but is sure to increase in Colorado. Even a slight uptick in home runs will damage his value and his addition to the Rockies.

On top of the home runs, Moscoso has benefited from a bit of luck in BABIP. His current rate of .234 is unsustainable for any pitcher even with an elite defense. Once his BABIP and HR/FB regress to the mean, you are potentially looking at a below average to replacement level pitcher. His K/BB of 1.91 is pedestrian and his only skill so far has been to pitch in a spacious home park with a bit of luck on balls hit in play.

Adding Moscoso might have been worth the sho,t as he has been able to post solid seasons in the minors (though he's had some rough seasons as well). The problem came when the Rockies decided to add Orioles starter Jeremy Guthrie on Monday. He is not as prone to the fly ball as Moscoso, but has a nearly perfect one to one ratio of ground balls to fly balls.

While not able to hide from the home run in Baltimore, Guthrie has been another one of those who has been able to maintain some level of control over his BABIP. His current rate of .273 is slightly below league average and helps him beat his FIP and xFIP. His career ERA of 4.19 beats his FIP of 4.68 by nearly half a run. Baltimore might not be a pitchers' park, but looking at most home run factors, Coors Field is still a much tougher place to keep the ball in the yard. With a career HR/FB of 10.2 percent it's tough to see that exploding upward, but we can be fairly certain it won't go lower.

Guthrie will see some boost from the switch to a weak NL West from his days in the AL East and he'll enjoy a few road games in San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego. Moscoso won't get much out of the switch except some boost from the weaker lineups of the NL.

The switch from Jason Hammel to Guthrie is probably a neutral to slight upgrade in terms of wins in 2012. The move for Moscoso, on the other hand, could be a big problem for the Rockies. His small sample size of data so far tells us he is absolutely not a pitcher who is likely to succeed in Coors Field. That move could be a big regret for the Rockies front office in 2012.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

The new golden age of catching

Troy Patterson — 2012-01-31T06:10:15+00:00

Since 1976, the total fWAR accumulated by all catchers has been higher than that totaled in 2011 only once. That was in 1977, when catchers in both leagues totaled 86.1 fWAR. Last season in nearly an extra 500 games, catchers had an fWAR of 84.3. Considering that 2011 includes FanGraphs base running skill, but pre-2002 years do not, the comparison is even more impressive for the seasons after 2002, since in no year have catchers had a base running value higher than -45.8.

In the half-decade before 2010, the value in catching was concentrated in mainly five players: Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, Jorge Posada, Russell Martin and Victor Martinez.

During the span from 2004 to 2009, only Ivan Rodriguez was among that group in fWAR and he was the only one largely included for defensive value. That group was always the best of the best, with Mauer being the far and away best. Then, in the span of two seasons, we saw an influx of talent both at the plate and behind the plate.

In 2010 the majors saw seven players top 3 fWAR at catcher including Buster Posey in his first full season. There were also a few random blips in the cases of Miguel Olivo and Carlos Ruiz, who were not young players and had little history of being that level of catcher. Olivo benefited from a solid season defensively to reach this level. This seemed like a nice season from the backstops, but what happened next was a boon of catchers.

Last season 11 players totaled more than 3 fWAR; not one was by benefit of an above-average defensive value. This new group included Mike Napoli (pictured) in a breakout season, Alex Avila, Matt Wieters, Yadier Molina, Carlos Santana, Nick Hundley, Chris Iannetta and Wilson Ramos. Surprisingly Mauer and Martinez missed this group, making this influx of new talent even more impressive.

That list also misses Posey after his gruesome leg injury and 2012 will welcome Jesus Montero to the majors. Although playing in Seattle might hurt his overall numbers offensively, his Oliver projections give him enough to enter this group in 2012 with a projected WAR of 3.2. A few players might come down to earth or play less time behind the plate, but 2012 looks to continue the elite play at backstop.

Explaining the new catchers

This sudden boom of catching talent seems to coincide with many teams and analysts trying to put a value to catching defense and most finding the value is quite a bit less than had been thought. Sure, there are some butchers with the glove, but the highest lost value in most seasons is 10 runs or one win. So a player like Napoli is going to cost you a few runs behind the plate, but spending a majority of his time there still makes him a better team asset than at first base or DH.

So teams are willing to slide even poor defenders behind the plate to see their offense carry a poor glove. Dave Cameron did a look at this value when reviewing where to put Montero. Even his theoretical worst catcher makes sense behind the plate over the DH spot. That's not to say someone like David Ortiz should have been playing catcher all these years, but perhaps the Red Sox should not view Ryan Lavarnway as a future DH just to keep Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate.

Lavarnway is an excellent example of the new catcher. He played outfield in high school and his early college career until 2007 when he moved to catcher. His defense has grown in the two college years and three minor league seasons since, but he still is labeled most often as future DH. If his glove and arm do just enough not to embarrass or draw negative attention to himself, then he is exactly the type of catcher the majors have seen emerge recently.

So the new catching group is allowed to make some defensive gaffes because the offense at that position is so valuable. This seems to come with a fan and manager limit, though. If a player like Martinez just can't throw anyone out, then the manager and fans just can't agree with any numbers. The same is true when you look at Napoli—his label as defensive liability has pushed him to limited catching duty.

As many have said, there are plenty of ways we could be discounting the defensive value or cost. Regardless, the consensus is that one to one-and-a-half wins is the limit for any catcher to gain or lose for his team. If you can find someone who is passable behind the plate, it's a lot simpler to find another bat to fill your DH spot than the other way around.

Next season

According to Oliver forecasts, seven catchers are headed for WAR totals over three. That includes Montero at the position and another season of Napoli at catcher for at least most of his games. There doesn't seen to be a benefit to moving catchers away from the position and teams have started to take advantage of that. The 2011 season was arguably the best by catchers in 35 seasons and with last year's catchers expected to stay behind the plate in 2012, there is no reason we shouldn't see another great year from catchers.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

The greatest eye in baseball

Troy Patterson — 2012-01-24T06:58:15+00:00

As a fan of numbers, I always look for the player who did something better than anyone else. We all know the best power hitters, for instance, but what about something a bit more subjective? When you ask what player had the best eye, you might say Ted Williams' OBP of .482 is a pretty good measure and call it a day, but that wouldn't be much fun, and I also don't think it's the right answer anyway.

On-base percentage is a combination of too many things outside just a good eye at the plate. A great hitter like Williams can use power to add some hits that another hitter might not. So perhaps then walk rate might make the best hitter. That leads us to a similar discovery, though, when we look at the top 15 walk rates of all time.

Name              BB%
Ted Williams      20.6
Barry Bonds       20.3
Max Bishop        20.0
Babe Ruth         19.4
Ferris Fain       18.4
Eddie Stanky      18.3
Roy Cullenbine    17.8
Gene Tenace       17.8
Jack Crooks       17.6
Eddie Yost        17.6
Mickie Mantle     17.5
Bill Salkeld      17.4
Bill Joyce        17.3
Randy Milligan    17.2
Jack Cust         17.2

So Williams, Barry Bonds, Max Bishop and Babe Ruth seem to be the best all time at taking a walk. Few would complain if we said they had the best eyes in all of baseball, but something doesn't feel right about just using walk rate. When Jack Cust can crack the all-time top 15 in a stat, I have to make sure I'm doing it right.

The next place to look would have to be strikeouts, but K percentage is littered with players at the low end who make good contact and yet can't walk. I decided the best way to go would be BB/K. This list was something completely different and quite surprising.

Name          BB/K
Joe Sewell        7.39
Monk Cline        6.33
Johnny Bassle     5.4
Cupid Childs      5.26
Tris Speaker      5.20
Eddie Collins     4.23
John McGraw       4.15
Bill Gleason      4.00
Mickey Cochrane   3.95
Tommy Holmes      3.93
Willie Keeler     3.58
Davy Jones        3.56
Dan Brouthers     3.53
Ferris Fain       3.46
Johnny Evers      3.44

At first, the list looks like a bust as nothing matches with our first list, and perhaps we again are seeing a lot of extremely low strikeout guys with okay walk rates. That's not what I set out to find when looking for the greatest eye in baseball history. That's when I noticed one name repeats on both lists. Ferris Fain ranks fifth in baseball history with a walk rate of 18.4 percent, but he also has a walk per strikeout rate of 3.46, making the top 15 on that list. Could Fain be the greatest eye in baseball, or is he just an anomaly that fits the search criteria?

Fain was a first baseman who played only nine seasons, all in the American League, from 1947 to 1955 and had the great nicknames Burrhead and Cocky. He spent time with the Philadelphia Athletics, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians. His debut was delayed due to military service from 1943-1945. His skills were that of the perfect leadoff hitter but odd for a first baseman. In 4,904 plate appearances, Fain carried a line of .290/.424/.396 and led the league in average twice and OBP once. He never struck out more than 7.6 percent in any season and had his best BB/K of 5.12 in 1950.

Fain was a very interesting character and known for a hot temper, which led to several barroom brawls, including a broken hand during a fight after the 1952 season. The temper and the fighting didn't affect him on the field until 1954, when he suffered a broken leg and played only 65 games with his lowest walk rate at 14.2 percent. This, along with the drinking and fighting, seemed to spell his demise. He was still amazing at the plate in 1955 with 114 games and a walk rate of 26.2 percent, but that would be the last season for Fain and what might have been the greatest eye in baseball. At only 34, it's a shame he had only nine years in the majors.

His final fWAR of 31.6 was very good for a player of nine seasons, with a wOBA of .390 and wRC+ of 127. He wasn't a Hall of Fame candidate, but thanks to his amazing eye at the plate, he was an All-Star-level player. Now perhaps we can recognize him as the greatest eye in baseball.

After baseball, things didn't get better for Fain as he was arrested twice for growing marijuana. The first time, he was placed under house arrest, and the second time he received 18 months in prison. In response to questions about his marijuana production, Fain was quoted saying, ''I knew how to grow the stuff. I was as adept at it as I was in playing baseball.'' He died in 2001 at the age of 80, regretting only that his off the field behavior likely kept him from a managerial chance later in life.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Clone Wars: James Shields and Roy Oswalt

Troy Patterson — 2010-03-15T08:11:15+00:00

While Roy Oswalt has been the ace in Houston for some time James Shields has just taken the role for the Rays. The similarities in their struggles this year are quite striking. We can take this chance to see what these similarities tell about their 2010 season and beyond.

Both pitchers had lower strikeout rates last year going from career rates over 7 down to 6.85 per nine innings for both of them. For neither pitcher that is a career low so not a huge concern. These two pitchers are not largely known for their strikeout abilities.

Both pitchers are control specialists with great walk rates. Shields has a career rate of 1.96 and Oswalt is only slightly higher at 2.06. Oswalt was right at his career rate with a BB/9 of 2.08 and Shields was only slightly up at 2.13.

So they declined slightly in K/BB, but they were still very good. Oswalt has had better groundball rates in the past and that seems to have played a role in his drop last year. He went from a 50 percent groundball rate the previous season to a 43 percent. That was the biggest reason for his struggles last year as his xFIP went from 3.55 to 3.88. The xFIP shows his 4.12 ERA was also a bit unlucky, but with a career xFIP of 3.58 and a career ERA of 3.23 it's surprising to see him trail his xFIP like this.

His LOB% seams to be the main explanation at 72.7 percent this year down from a career rate of 76.2 percent. His struggles of 2009 centered around a slightly lower K/BB, a drop in ground balls and a bit of bad luck. All things we should expect to regress in a new season and be fine. His age is a bit more concerning that things will start to age, but it's better to expect the Oswalt of 2008 over the one we saw last season.

Shields, on the other hand, does have some bigger concerns. His makeup was built on elite K/BB numbers due to a very low walk rate. His ground ball rate was never at Oswalt's level and he had to have a good K/BB number to make up for it. So far he has with 5.11 in 2007 and 4.00 in 2008 and while his 3.21 in 2009 was very good, it's not the level he has shown.

His pitching approach has changed over the past few years with fewer fastballs, which is his worst pitch with a career run value of -0.66 per 100 pitches. At the same time, he has also dropped his number of change-ups, which is by far his best pitch. Going from 30 percent of his pitches down to 23 percent in 2009. It's unclear why he is making this change, but the pitch has always maintained run values over 1 per 100 thrown.

Much like Cole Hamels, he must rely on his change-up and get back to throwing it 30 percent of the time. If he can return to 30 percent of his pitches being change-ups then he can start to regain the form we saw in 2008 and 2009, but if not he will be the solid pitcher of 2009 without ace level stuff.

While an older option, Oswalt probably makes the more solid and reliable selection in 2010. He didn't change anything and is dealing with more luck-based changes. His defense is no where as good as Tampa's, but solid enough for fantasy purposes. If Shields returns to his pitching arsenal that was so successful in the two years before 2009 then he could match Oswalt, but that has more to do with what he does and not luck.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Clone Wars: Jonathon Papelbon and Daniel Bard

Troy Patterson — 2010-03-08T08:54:15+00:00

As a fantasy player you must always be looking for the next guy to claim the closer role and when to make the jump. Obviously with a deal set for 2010, Jonathon Papelbon is set at the closer role this year unless injury occurs, but many have speculated that Daniel Bard can not only replace him, but be as good. Minor league track record will be a start, but we have some trouble comparing these numbers since Papelbon was primarily a starter in the minors.

Both players received their major league debuts at 24 and entered their age 25 season ready to break spring training with the team. Papelbon of course struggled with injuries that year, but we'll just look at what their minor league numbers look like.

Bard did start in his first season, but was atrocious at Single-A and high A. His K/BB at both levels was 0.60 with an insane 9.4 walks per nine innings. That is in 75 IP and was a big reason he hasn't started since. He turned it around quickly though in 2008 as he returned to A ball as a reliever and absolutely dominated.

In 28 IP at A ball he had a K/9 of 13.8 and a BB/9 of 1.3 and moved up quickly to Double-A where he proved he could continue to pitch well, despite struggling with walks. His BB/9 rose to 4.7, but he still showed a dominant ERA at 1.99. After a short 16 IP in Triple-A starting 2009 he did show the great K/BB skills again at 5.80. All together as a reliever he threw a 13.1 K/9 and a BB/9 of 3.36.

It's tough to judge relievers in the minor leagues as they have so many small sample sizes at so many levels. Let's see how this compares to Papelbon when he was in the minors: Papelbon threw plenty of innings due to being a starter and should be able to see his skill, but must remember that pitchers gain strikeouts when moving to the pen.

Papelbon had some very good numbers in the minors. His K/9 was 9.7 across all levels, but fell to 8.6 at Double-A and Triple-A in 2005. While his strikeout rate has now climbed to over 10 he did show he would have good control with a 2.5 BB/9 across all levels.

This maybe the biggest difference between the two. Bard has a slightly lower level of control and will result in a higher walk rate. This means he needs to maintain his elite strikeout levels of 2008 and 2009 just to have K/BB numbers near Papelbon's best.

Bard's numbers did follow this pattern so far as he held a K/9 of 11.5 last season, but his walk rate was at 4.0. Papelbon did have a similar first year with a walk rate of 4.5. Will Bard follow in his path and show better control this year? That's unclear, but even if he's not pitching like a perfect clone of Papelbon he's going to be the closer of the future.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

MLB 2K10 Fathead Jr. Giveaway

Troy Patterson — 2010-03-03T15:45:15+00:00

2K Sports has offered the chance to win an Evan Longoria Fathead Jr. to THT Fantasy readers to promote the release of MLB 2K10. In case you have never heard of a Fathead it is a wall "sticker" that can be placed on and removed from a wall easily. For a look at the Longoria one you can check here: http://2ksports.com/whats_hot/mlb2k10/375

I figured why not give it to the person with the quickest Google search since that's all modern trivia online is. There are two questions, so please answer both and the first correct pair in the comments below will win the Fathead Jr. Both questions are Evan Longoria related since he is the MLB 2K10 cover athlete and on the winning Fathead Jr. (make sure to include your email in the comment so I can contact you).

Question #1: Evan Longoria attended St. John Bosco High School and graduated in 2003. What former ROY winner also attended that school and graduated 12 years before?

Question #2: Longoria transfered to Long Beach State after his freshman year, but was blocked from continuing to play shortstop by what current MLB shortstop?

The game is released this week and for those who don't have the quickest Google skills, you can order the game through this link before April 2 and also receive a free Fathead Jr. of Longoria. http://2ksports.com/whats_hot/mlb2k10/375

Here are a couple of screen shots to whet your appetite for the game. I will be giving my thoughts on the game in a short time once I have played it, but this year the game has upped the ante by offering $1 million to the first player to pitch a perfect game. You can get more details from the 2K Sports site about how to enter the contest, but it needs to be a video recorded game and with certain matchups and settings.

MLB 2K10

This year also includes the "My Player Mode" which lets you create your own player and pick your team (not on all systems). You then play only as that player and attempt to create the next Hall of Famer.

MLB 2K10

You can also get more details about the game by following @2KSports and their Facebook page.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Clone Wars: Dexter Fowler and Carl Crawford

Troy Patterson — 2010-03-01T08:23:15+00:00

While Dexter Fowler is an up-and-coming speedster, he is not going to catch Carl Crawford this year, but my aim here is to show how he could someday. Last year Fowler was very impressive in his first full year, stealing 27 bases and getting on base at a decent clip. This may be his one advantage over Crawford and something that can help him down the line.

While Crawford is a great player, he does lack plate discipline. He has a good contact rate, but with a career walk percentage of only 5.2 percent his career OBP sits at .332. That is average at best and a strong reason why this great speedster has only surpassed 100 runs twice in his career. If he could supply a .350-plus OBP he would be much more valuable.

Fowler, on the other hand, has shown he knows how to take a walk and that will only make him better with each passing year. His walk rate last year was 12.9 percent giving him plenty of chances to steal and score with a .363 OBP even though he showed he was a bit of a free swinger with a 26.8 percent strikeout rate.

While the better OBP will help Fowler steal bases and score runs, he won't have the average that Crawford does. So if you play in a 5x5 league with batting average, you can expect Fowler to continue to hit around the .270 mark. He might improve a bit, but he'll never be the .300 guy that Crawford can be.

For power, Fowler has to grow into his body. Crawford also hit only five homers in his first full year. Fowler has the makeup to hit more and playing in Colorado is still beneficial. It's unlikely he reaches the 15-plus level of Crawford in 2010, but down the road he should.

The reason you go to either of these guys is speed. Fowler stole 27 bags last year and Crawford was able to swipe 60. Crawford has swiped 50 or more bags in all but two of his full seasons. Fowler doesn't appear to have those wheels, but with growth and practice he could be looking at 40 to 50 a season.

According to the Bill James speed score, they compare really well on the bases. Crawford was at his lowest in 2009 with a 7.7 speed score. Likely a fluke, but it was essentially equal to the 7.6 score for Fowler. Again Folwer is likely a step back, but is only one year into his career while Crawford is going to be 29 this season.

This pick is a similar grouping and not really a direct "clone" choice. I don't expect Fowler to be in the Crawford value range in 2010, but for draft or auction cost Fowler might be the better bet for your limited-power speedster. I can't see paying top dollar for the Crawford- or Jacoby Ellsbury-type when you can get Fowler or Nyjer Morgan, Michael Bourn or Dernard Span.

Speaking of Span, he might make the best comparable to Fowler. Span has the best plate discipline and contact of the group, while his OBP of .392 should make sure he scores 100 or more runs in 2010. With Crawford going around No. 17 and Fowler going 251 you can see why it's just as well you wait for the Colorado Speedster. Span fits in right in the middle at 121 ADP and would make another great choice. If you can collect one of these speedsters for 2010 you should be making an excellent choice and making solid ground in your steals category.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Clone Wars: Johnny Damon and Curtis Granderson

Troy Patterson — 2010-02-15T08:12:15+00:00

Curtis Granderson is eight years younger than Johnny Damon, but based on where they are in their careers they have many similarities. This is strictly a fantasy/offensive assessment, though, as Granderson is a much better defender for the Yankees.

Before last season Damon had never had a strike out rate over 15 percent, but in 2009 he struck out nearly 18 percent of the time. That is not surprising as he is getting older and contact is one of the skills to decline at this age. At the same time, Granderson has taken a step forward the past two years with a K percentage of 20 and 22 percents the last two years. That is still a significant difference, but much closer than it would have been in Damon's prime.

As for plate discipline, Granderson has again made huge strides getting his walk rate over 10 percent these past two seasons. That is better than the career rate of Damon at 9.2 percent, but very similar to the rates he has posted for the past four seasons.

Granderson had a very tough year on his BABIP at .276, but with a career rate of .323 that should help his OBP return to much better numbers. He had some learning to do, much like Damon, as his OBP was below .340 for his first three years before his skills grew. He had two seasons with an OBP over .360 and would have done the same in 2009 if his BABIP had been neutral.

Of course the big question is the power. Damon had a great year for home run power, but his ISO also had a huge bump. It was at .207, which was a career high with only 2006 coming close at .197. He just doesn't have this type of power away from Yankee Stadium and could suffer wherever he winds up.

Granderson had a good year for homers with 30, but his overall power was down with a ISO of .204. His career rate is similar at .211, but being moved to Yankee Stadium can only help. Perhaps this is where the two will differ. Granderson should see a bump in his power, homers and OBP.

On the base paths Granderson does not appear to have the numbers of Damon's prime, but once again he is very similar to where Damon is now. Granderson had a speed score of 6.1 in 2009 and Damon was at 5.8, which was his lowest rate of his career.

Damon is a better bet for run totals as he is a leadoff hitter unless his new team in 2010 doesn't ask him to fill that roll. This means his RBI chances are quite low, but his run totals are impressive. Granderson is a candidate for the top of the order, but his power should keep him in a lower spot and in New York his run and RBI totals should be great.

Granderson is the better option this year and going forward, but mainly due to the decline in Damon's skills. He would be behind Damon in runs, steals and batting average in their prime, but now it's much closer. With Granderson's ability to hit 30 homers outside of Yankee Stadium he gains that much more.

The Yankees not only get similar numbers in Granderson, but his much better defense and younger legs. Your fantasy team will get somewhat similar results as well with no worry about Damon's noodle arm. Granderson is currently the No. 51 pick according to MockDraftCentral, but Damon is going at 121. While Granderson has the better situation right now, I wouldn't take Granderson that far ahead of his clone.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Clone Wars: Clay Buchholz and Felix Hernandez

Troy Patterson — 2010-02-08T08:21:15+00:00

Clay Buchholz has struggled to establish himself in the Red Sox rotation ever since starting with a bang. Since his no-hitter he has held a major league ERA of 5.73 in the following two seasons. I was running a review of him a few weeks ago and found an interesting comparison though when looking at his skills. That pitcher is none other than Felix Hernandez, although he was much quicker to establish himself in Seattle.

Looking at his number so far you might wonder where the comparison comes from. So far their strikeouts and walks have been far from identical.

                   K/9      BB/9
Buchholz          7.65     4.11
Hernandez         8.06     2.85

Clay Buchholz's early major league career has been defined by high peaks and low valleys. (Icon/SMI)

Buchholz has closed with strikeouts, but is quite a ways away from him in walks. Like most pitchers he has struggled with his walk numbers early on and even Hernandez has been over 3.50 in his career. Buchholz has a minor league BB/9 of 2.50, so it's fairly reasonable to expect that rate to come down to a solid number.

We saw that this past season he made some adjustments late in the year and saw some changes in his rates. In the last seven games of 2009 his K/9 was 7.53, but his BB/9 dropped to 2.38. What changed is tough to say, although his changeup rate dropped game by game and as Evan Brunell discussed here perhaps that has been why he struggles with left handers. I have my doubts about this theory on the whole as it's a small sample size in the majors and for his overall lefty/righty splits. If you compare his tOPS splits (92/109) to the 2009 American league average (92/108) there isn't much to say that he was any more interesting than anyone else.

So what changed in those last seven games that allowed him to gain control and can he repeat it? His number of sliders per game rose and his number of changeups dropped as well. He's also still dealing with a change in arm slot the Red Sox requested of him in 2008. That change coincided with a huge spike in walks in 2008 and it seems he is still figuring out how to pitch from the new slot. This should help keep him healthy, but hopefully he has figured this out.

Getting outs and limiting walks is not the only challenge for Buchholz to be like King Felix, though. He needs to maintain his elite groundball numbers. Not only does Hernandez pitch half his games in a great stadium for pitchers, he also keeps the ball on the ground to great levels. His numbers have dropped recently, but his career rate of 56.8 percent grounders is sixth among pitchers with 900-plus IP since 2002.

Buchholz has grown in his ability to keep the ball on the ground going from 38.5 percent in 2007 to 47.7 percent in 2008. He then made a bug step forward last year reaching 53.8 percent. There is reason to believe he can maintain these levels as his 2009 Triple-A rate was 52.5 percent. This isn't the elite levels of Hernandez first few seasons, but near his 52 percent and 53 percent of 2008 and 2009.

Other things going for Buchholz this year is the defense surrounding him should be improved. He had a BABIP of .289 last year, so he didn't suffer from that, but that shouldn't suddenly swing the other way either.

Buchholz is looking at finally getting that shot he has earned to start a full season with the big team. The fan base and fantasy owners will be looking for big things and a comparison with King Felix will surely make those expectations even higher. Perhaps this might be the farthest apart two players have been that I compared in ADP. Buchholz currently has an ADP of 190 and Hernandez is at 28 according to MockDraftCentral. While they aren't going to finish neck and neck, this comparison can show us how much more valuable Buchholz can be than his draft position.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.

Clone Wars: Matt Wieters and Mark Teixeira

Troy Patterson — 2010-02-01T08:42:15+00:00

Matt Wieters did not have the rookie campaign predicted for him, but that's no reason to give up hope. (Icon/SMI)

Last year Matt Wieters entered the season with plenty of hype, and after PECOTA projected a weighted mean of 106/31/100/4/.311 it was an all out blitz for him in just about every league. He was limited by playing time first, but ended up playing in 96 games for the season. His PECOTA comparable also called his No. 1 comp Mark Teixeira. They were both drafted fifth overall in the MLB draft, in 2001 and 2007, respectively. Let's see after that first season how they still look next to each other.

Wieters didn't quite have his power going in his first year as he totaled only a .124 ISO. That was much lower than expected after his PECOTA number was .244. I think expecting that much power in his first season and after starting at Triple-A is a lot to ask. Teixeira did not have trouble in his first year, hitting 26 homers with a .221 ISO.

While Teixeira had a quicker start to his career, they had more similarities from their minor league numbers. They each spent a first season split between High-A and Double-A to start their careers with Wieters spending 39 games at Triple-A in his second season. During that first season they totaled the following stat lines.

Teixeria:  .318/.413/.592
Wieters:   .355/.454/.600

Wieters compiled that line in 530 plate appearances and Teixeira only had 375. That is quite a line for Wieters and gives reason to believe the hype.

At the plate both players have a similar approach.

           O-Swing%   Z-Swing%   Swing%  O-Contact%   Z-Contact%  Contact%     Zone%   F-Strike%
Wieters     25.4 %     70.2 %      47.1 %     61.2 %      83.7 %     77.5 %	 48.5 %    53.0 %
Teixeira    23.8 %     74.6 %      49.2 %     37.7 %      87.8 %     75.6 %	 49.9 %    57.6 %

This is rookie season numbers for both, and show how close they are in plate discipline and contact skills. Wieters is better in this sample at contact on pitches out of the zone and slightly better in overall contact. They both had walk rates around 7 percent and strikeout rates around 22-24 percent. Obviously Teixeira has had some different numbers since, but in everything but power they were very close in their rookie years.

Heading into 2010, the projections systems don't like Wieters to reach the second season numbers of Teixeira. The power again seems to be a concern with Bill James giving him the highest SLG at .484 where Teixeira posted a .560 SLG in his second season.

Being only 24 this season Wieters has plenty of improvement headed his way as he continues to grow. Hitting only 20 homers this year would seem to be low for him after the power he showed in the minors. The projection systems seem to weight the rookie season more and place his power closer to the 2009 numbers.

Perhaps the comparison will lose some basis going forward, but the only failing of Wieters in year No. 1 was his power swing. His home park shouldn't hurt him at all and of course his power will come as he grows. For fantasy purposes this all makes Wieters an extreme value again. He should be one of the top catchers off the board in 2010 and with a comparable like Teixeira it makes sense to value him there.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.