The Hardball Times -- Vince Caramela http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en studes@hardballtimes.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-23T08:50:15+00:00 Five questions: Los Angeles Dodgers http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-los-angeles-dodgers8/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-los-angeles-dodgers8/#When:07:10:15
Sure, things were bad, but deep down, Dodgers fans knew that once McCourt was gone, things would improve. The team had the built-in Band-Aid of being located in the second largest market in the country. It had a modest payroll which included two franchise players on the right side of 25. And the new owners would be negotiating a new television deal so profitable that Major League Baseball is still trying to figure out what to make of it in terms of revenue sharing.

That brings us to today. McCourt is out, Magic Johnson and the Guggenheim power brokers are in and the team has become a viable contender while rejuvenating its fan base. On paper the team looks improved, with money redirected to international scouting, player development and payroll. But with all that money come more questions this team will need to address this season.

Will Hanley Ramirez remain as the team's shortstop by midseason?



Before spring training, the team said that Ramirez will be its starting shortstop and thus the only person who will move Hanley... is Hanley himself.

But is it really that simple? Have the injuries of 2012 and lack of range taught us anything about one of the former best players in baseball? As far as I can tell, three very possible scenarios could force Ramirez off the position.

The first one is injury. Last season was a lost one, first stemming from chronic lower back pain, then from a season-ending shoulder injury caused by an errant defensive play. Over the offseason, the Dodgers were hoping Ramirez would get himself back into shortstop shape, but that was derailed due to a shoulder injury suffered during a winter league game in Puerto Rico. The injury proved to be minor but it did lead to him missing valuable time at the position over the offseason.

The next scenario is what to do if third baseman Luis Cruz pumpkins by mid-May? Last season, Cruz played surprisingly well in 78 games, posting a line of .297/.322/.431 with a .326 wOBA. Glancing over his numbers one can see many red flags; an incredibly low walk rate of three percent coupled with an abnormally high swing rate outside the zone at 41 percent. He also posted an unsustainable 23.6 percent line drive rate that helped keep the BABIP high.

In a nutshell, the Dodgers are fooling themselves into thinking Cruz can be anything more than a defensive sub at third, but with Nick Punto and Juan Uribe penciled in at backup, the options go from ugh to outright embarrassing and could force Ramirez to move back to third.

The third possible scenario would involve Ramirez going into a further offensive decline. Since 2010 his strikeout rate has shot up from 15 percent to 17.1 percent to 19.8 percent last season. Sure, strikeouts have increased across the board, but combined with his dwindling power numbers this would suggest a peak has passed him by.

Age and weight may have caused Ramirez to slow down a step, but his speed score and BABIP did come alive during his brief stint in Los Angeles. It's doubtful that Ramirez will ever be the four WAR player he was several years ago, thereby making the $31.5 million owed to him through next season unjustifiable, but if he can stay healthy and not embarrass himself too much with the glove, the Dodgers would be more than happy to see a line around .275/.325/.445 over the next few seasons.

Should the Dodgers trade one of their starters before the season?


This past offseason, the Dodgers committed roughly $209 million in acquiring Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu to fill out their already crowded rotation. With eight starters, one would think a trade is an absolute necessity in terms of roster space, but with the questions surrounding at least six of these starters. This surplus may only be an illusion.

Top of the rotation (2012 stats):
Clayton Kershaw: 227.2 IP, 9.05 K/9, 2.49 BB/9, ERA 2.53, 2.89 FIP, 5.5 fWAR
Zack Greinke: 212.1 IP, 8.48 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 3.48 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 5.1 fWAR

No question marks here. This combination gives the Dodgers, arguably, the best top two starters in baseball. Kershaw is a legitimate ace and Greinke is the perfect No. 2 starter.

Middle of the rotation:
Chad Billingsley: 149.2 IP, 7.70 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 3.55 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 2.7 fWAR
Josh Beckett: 170.1 IP, 6.97 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 4.65 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 2.3 fWAR
Hyun-Jin Ryu (ZiPS projection): 180.3 IP, 8.44 K/9, 2.85 BB/9, 3.99 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 1.6 fWAR
Ted Lilly: 48.2 IP, 5.73 K/9, 3.51 BB/9, 3.14 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 0.5 fWAR

Here is where things get dicey. Billingsley is key in terms of providing this rotation a much needed bridge. He keeps the ball in the park, shows an above-average K/BB rate and can reach 190-plus innings. However, he seems to have a time bomb strapped to his pitching elbow. Late last season, Billingsley was diagnosed with a UCL tear. He elected to keep pitching in an effort to finally "blow it out." Amazingly his elbow stayed attached and he decided to avoid the recommended Tommy John surgery, opting to receive platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injections instead.

This injury has kept the Dodgers from making any serious moves. Going down the list, Beckett has shown the ability to be a viable third option, but his injury history combined with his steady decrease in velocity makes him a risk. Ryu is an exciting addition but, according to scouts, is a mixed bag. Those on the supporter side point to his ability to mix pitches well which helped him shine in the 2009 World Baseball Classic and the 2008 Olympics. On the other side, poor conditioning (he reported to camp an alleged 40 pounds above his listed weight) and a spotty injury history makes him a legitimate boom or bust candidate.

Lilly is recovering from shoulder surgery. He has been undergoing limited bullpen sessions in the hopes that he can avoid any setbacks. However, his age (37) and injury should make him a non-factor, at least, for the first half of the season.

Bottom of the rotation:
Aaron Harang: 179.2 IP, 6.56 K/9, 4.26 BB/9, 3.61 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 1.5 fWAR
Chris Capuano: 198.1 IP, 7.35 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, 3.72 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 2.1 fWAR

These are the two pitchers often discussed as being trade possibilities. Last season, both Harang and Capuano pitched better than expected. Harang, despite entering his age 35 season and diminished velocity, still relies on his above-average slider to be a capable back-end starter, but a rising walk rate and FIP suggesting that 2012 was reliant on luck should give inquiring teams some caution.

Where Harang was a former top-of-the-rotation starter, Capuano was a bit of a surprise in that he has posted two consecutive healthy seasons. Having undergone two Tommy John surgeries as well as a labrum surgery, Capuano still shows excellent command and the ability to effectively mix his pitches with some success (given that he is able to stay ahead of hitters, since his fastball doesn't play too well in hitter counts).

Which brings us to our question: Assuming that Kershaw's hip injury in 2012 is a thing of the past, let's imagine that the No. 1 and No. 2 starters are locked in. Worst case scenario is that Billingsley blows out his elbow, Beckett starts the season the DL with some minor ailment, Ryu is ineffective and told to report to Albuquerque. That leaves us with Mike Magill or Stephen Fife battling it out for the fifth spot.

But that scenario is a bit extreme. A more likely case is that, again, Billingsley "blows it out" and Beckett moves into the third spot with Ryu holding it down in the fourth position. Even with Beckett not expected to log more than 160 innings, the team should still have the depth to capably fill out the bottom two slots.

Looking outside their division, the Cardinals, Cubs, Indians, Angels and Rangers should be in the market for a low-cost back end starter. Trading either Capuano or Harang won't net you anything close to a steal, but if one of them can bring in a capable right-handed bat and defensive option off the bench. That should only help the team improve.

How much can we expect from Carl Crawford?


After an abysmal 2011 season, Crawford missed all but 31 games last season, recovering from a wrist operation and a sprained UCL ligament in his throwing elbow that would later require Tommy John surgery (he, too, tried the PRP injection but it didn't take).

With $105 million owed through the 2017 season, the acquisition of Crawford represents one of the biggest gambles the Dodgers made last season. Crawford will begin the season at the age of 31, a time of slight decline for speed players, so it would be naive for us to expect him to return 2009 and 2010 levels.

Before we can attempt to predict Crawford's value in 2013, we need to get a sense of his positive and negative attributes.

First, the bad: Crawford's strikeout rate has been on a steady rise, going from 14.7 to 15.7 to 19.3 in 2011. Last season, this rate did fall in a handful of plate appearances but his walk rate further dipped, going from 7.6 to 6.9 to 4.3 to 2.9. As was stated earlier, strikeouts have been on the rise with the average hitter going from 16.8 in 2006 to 19.8 percent last season so this could merely point to wider overall trend in baseball.

Taking his strikeout total in a different context, Crawford's swing strike percentage has hovered around nine percent, the same as during his height in Tampa Bay, but his plate discipline has derailed, going from swinging at pitches outside the zone at a clip of 31 percent in 2009 to 37.9 and 38.4 percent the last two seasons. The latter is eight percentage points higher than the major league average.

Now the good (sort of): Despite having only 125 plate appearances in 2012, Crawford did show an uptick in his isolated power and speed scores. But these power numbers don't pass the pizza cutter test since ISO doesn't become reliable until around 550 plate appearances. A stat that could be studied a bit more reliably in this sample is contact percentage. Last season his total was 83.5, his highest since 2009.

Crawford has admitted to not feeling 100 percent healthy regarding arm strength. Typically it takes position players from six to nine months to fully recover from TJ surgery. Since arm strength is a necessity for outfielders, it would probably be wise for the Dodgers to wait to fully activate him until mid May.

Hurt arm aside, it will still be a tall order for Crawford to consistently perform at a level that will justify a salary of $20 million per season. It's within his reach to perform as a 2.5 to 3 WAR player this season and beyond. For a small market team where Crawford would be the focus, this would be devastating, but for a team fat with cash like LA, this will probably turn out just fine.

Did the Dodgers really need to spend $22.5 million at three years for a mid-tier relief pitcher?


Get used to it, America! The Dodgers have money, lots of it, and what good is it if it can’t be spent?

When Brandon League (mid-tier relief pitcher in question) was acquired at last season's trade deadline, the Dodgers saw this as a way to improve their depth for a possible stretch run. The team already had lost a few key relievers to injury but when its closer, Kenley Jansen, was forced to go on the DL, a love affair between the Dodgers and League immediately blossomed.

Of course this love story had its roots when the team’s coaching staff announced that League was pitching better after a mechanical fix to his delivery. Some may consider it a product of small sample data, but League was much more effective once the change was made, posting his highest strikeout rate in three seasons at 8.9. He was also effective in the swinging strike category, which rocketed from eight percent with the Mariners to 14 percent. However, before we get all excited, League was still prone to trouble with left-handed hitters. And his control sputtered a bit even with the fix.

Jansen comes with all the qualities most teams like to see in its closer. He's young and cheap, and has a cut fastball that dominates to the tune of striking out 40 percent of all batters faced in his career. Another attractive quality is that he has been able to keep his velocity in the mid 90s while improving his command: His walk percentages fell from 4.36 in 2011 to 3.05 last season.

The major question mark with Jansen is his health. In the past two seasons he has suffered from an irregular heartbeat that causes fatigue. Surgery over the offseason to cauterize the troublesome valve was declared a success, but the Dodgers may want to wait and see how he holds up for a full season.

If the team was looking for an insurance policy for Jansen, surely the Dodgers could have found other cheaper options, although the 2013 market for viable free-agent closers was a bit then. Sure they could have pursued a Ryan Madson or Joakim Soria for a fraction of the Brandon League price and figured either would be ready by early to late May, but what fun is that? The team figured it would buy another ninth-inning guy, name him the closer and maybe luck into using Jansen in other high leverage situations in the seventh or eighth inning. And, besides, if League sticks as the closer over the next few years, the Dodgers could stand to save a few bucks when Jansen is due for arbitration in 2014. See, spend 22.5 million bucks and you might just save four or five million over that span.


With a $200 million-plus payroll, the Dodgers should dominate the National League... right?


When the Guggenheim Partners took full control of the team last season, it was expected that money would be spent, but no one expected the team's payroll to jump from last season’s Opening Day total of $105 million to the expected $213 million come April. That is certainly one of the largest one-year increases in sports history, but as we see with another major market team, in New York, a payroll that big doesn't come with any guarantees.

Despite all the questions this team has, fans are certainly happy; but how happy will they be come mid-May if the team is feeling the effects of a slow start? Despite its expense, it is one of the biggest boom or bust teams recently assembled.

One could argue that this team is better suited as a playoff team, with its pitching concentrated more at the top as well as having a collection of talented bats with questionable long-term production and durability.

Last season the Dodgers finished with 86 wins, a full eight games behind the Giants but only two behind the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot. With the Astros gone to American League and the NL Central expected to be improved, it may take only 86 wins to clinch a playoff spot. If all goes right, the Dodgers should easily find themselves as a 95- or 96-win team, which should be enough to dethrone the Giants in the West.

However, if this team has trouble with its pitching depth and if Ramirez and Crawford are injured or underperforming (in addition to Adrian Gonzalez going into a further power decline), things could get ugly real fast… for a very long time.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Vince Caramela 2013-03-15T07:10:15+00:00 Five questions: Texas Rangers http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-texas-rangers7/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-texas-rangers7/#When:08:08:15 Will this be Josh Hamilton’s final season with the Rangers?
I’ll admit that I really didn’t want to address the recent relapse or the growing talk of “distractions,” since I figured Hamilton to be professional enough to make baseball his main focus once camp opened in Arizona. However, the timing of this event does put his future with the team in doubt.

Obviously, the Rangers are a little shy when it comes to passing out long-term contracts. The A-Rod contract debacle was awhile ago, but it’s something the current front office has learned from in its efforts to make this franchise healthy again. It’s a reason the team elected to let C.J. Wilson defect to the Angels and a huge reason why Prince Fielder was never seriously factored into any long-term plans in Arlington.

In many ways, Hamilton is one of the major driving forces for the Rangers' success, but he is also a member of a team that prides itself on youth, versatility and depth. This is a fact that established stars like Michael Young, C.J. Wilson and Neftali Feliz had to learn, since prior roles can be either eliminated or redefined on this team.

From what I hear, Hamilton seems like a good clubhouse guy and he’s a great draw in Texas, but he can be a bit stubborn when it comes to organizational issues. For the past few seasons, Hamilton has been at odds with management over its preference to make him an everyday left-fielder. Hamilton prefers center and came to camp 15 pounds lighter for the sole purpose of reclaiming the position.

Hamilton has also been vocal about his insistence on batting third (his whole day seems to be blown if this doesn’t happen), his daytime struggles being associated with his eye color (blue eyes tend to be troubled by sunlight, or so Hamilton says) and his refusal to save his body from the occasional errant slide.

Since Hamilton’s incident with alcohol, contract extension talks have ceased. Both sides have been careful in what they say and I gather this shouldn’t become too much of an issue during the season, but it may have closed any possible window of extending Hamilton's time as a Ranger.

If Hamilton can stay healthy in 2012, his value should rise, but he will be turning 31 in May. I can’t imagine the Rangers offering him more than a three-year contract and easily backing down if they are outbid.

How concerned should we be about the starting rotation?


As we saw with the Reds last season, putting a lot of faith in young pitching can backfire. As of this writing, Colby Lewis will be penciled in as the Opening Day starter with Derek Holland, Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison and Neftali Feliz following. Lewis is the elder statesman, beginning this season at the age of 32. He is good for another 200 innings, but his struggle to keep the ball in his home park isn’t something you want when matched up against an opponent’s ace.

Holland and Harrison look like promising front-end starters, but the team would like to keep a righty between them. Last season, Holland and Harrison saw a big increase in their innings, with Harrison seeing the biggest jump from 85.2 innings in 2010 to 185.2 last season. Harrison has battled shoulder issues in both 2009 and 2010 and his durability is not guaranteed.

But looking at Harrison’s 2011, there is a lot to like. His velocity has been trending upward and his repertoire is solid, especially his changeup against right-handed batters. I do expect his home run to fly ball rate to regress a bit back to normal, but if he can post another 180-plus innings this season, chances are we could be in store for further improvement. This spring, Harrison has gone back and forth working on his cutter and slider as a possible out pitch.

Holland finished strong last season despite the healthy jump in his innings. He had to battle through shoulder inflammation in 2010, but his ability to get through 32 starts last season was promising.

Last season Holland saw an increase in his velocity while also improving his command. I’ve always been a fan of Holland and watching him overcome his struggles as a rookie in 2009 to become a 16-game winner last season has been fun. He is a favorite to struggle in Tom Verducci’s annual “year-after effect” list, which is always a concern. My hope is that he works to improve upon his secondary pitches, which will be key if he is to improve in 2012.

We round out the rotation with two pitchers already grabbing the attention of Rangers fans this spring. Brian Cartwright recently broke down all the many reasons why Oliver projects Yu Darvish to absolutely dominate in his first major league season. I understand that Darvish will be expected to work through some adjustments, especially going from the Japanese custom of six days to our standard five days of rest. It’s also been observed that Darvish comes from the Nippon Professional Baseball League, which is currently going through a dead-ball era since changes were made to its baseball making it a bit heavier and thereby resulting in a suppressed flight path.

Those are the negatives. But Darvish does have a lively fastball and healthy command of his secondary pitches and his ability to induce a high frequency of ground balls (even before the Nippon ball turned into a shot put) should help him adapt.

The last pitcher penciled into the rotation is Feliz. Every spring Feliz is brought in to work as a starter and every time an issue pops up either about his inability to command his pitches or refusal to make the mental adjustment needed to transition from reliever to starter. This spring, Feliz may not have much of a choice. With Joe Nathan signed as the new closer, Feliz won’t have the same fall-back option he had last spring.

Early reports have Feliz focusing on establishing a feel for his change-up and the feedback regarding his attitude has been positive. I know he’ll be under a constant media microscope and any signs of struggle will inevitably have Roy Oswalt’s name attached. But I’m expecting the Rangers to commit to Feliz as long as the attitude remains positive. This transition isn’t expected to be accomplished in a mere month and the Rangers management seems well aware of that.

What’s with the obsession to trade Koji Uehara?


Leading up to the opening of camp, many Rangers blogs and local reports seemed intent on finally shipping Uehara and the $4 million he’s owed this season off to anybody willing to take him. It was everywhere and, with reports having deals nearly reached with the Blue Jays, Orioles and Athletics, seemed to have an air of desperation not usually associated with the Rangers front office.

Before I get into the possible reasons for a trade, let me list Uehara’s stat line:

2009: 66.2 IP, 6.48 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9, 4.05 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 4.42 xFIP
2010: 44 IP, 11.25 K/9, 1.02 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9, 2.86 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 2.70 xFIP
2011: 65 IP, 11.77 K/9, 1.25 BB/9, 1.52 HR/9, 2.35 ERA, 3.03, 2.33 xFIP


Separating his 2011 standard stats between his time in Baltimore and Texas:

2011 BAL: 47 IP, 11.9 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 1.72 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 2.50 xFIP
2011 TEX: 18 IP, 11.5 K/9, 0.5 BB/9, 2.5 HR/9, 4.00 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 2.02 xFIP


It’s obvious that Uehara’s struggles centered on his elevated home run rate during those 18 innings and that the rest of his stats were exceptional. Arlington is known to be a hitter-friendly park and his high fly ball rate (54 percent average) isn’t exactly optimal, but Uehara actually produced fewer fly balls during the time he was a Ranger (57 percent of his 2011 fly balls came during his time as an Oriole and only 43.4 percent as a Ranger, according to Baseball Info Solutions).

Another possibility for the Rangers to force a trade could be injury. Uehara suffered some elbow setbacks in 2009 that caused him to miss that season’s final month. This is always a possibility with pitchers, but with team physicals required to make a trade complete, this doesn’t seem likely and, besides, his peripheral stats show no red flags.

One motive for a potential trade is money. The Rangers extended themselves by signing Darvish this offseason and in order for them to acquire luxuries like an established left-handed reliever (read Mike Gonzalez) or a veteran pitcher (like, say, Oswalt), the team would like sell off one of its pricier relievers.

Another possibility is the manager’s lack of confidence, especially after Uehara’s sub-par postseason appearances. The Texas front office is known for its smarts, but it is also known to defer a lot of field decisions to its manager. Ron Washington is known to play favorites, especially in the ‘pen, but reports out of spring training have him praising Uehara’s split-finger fastball.

I suspect with the beginning of spring underway, the team will elect to stick with Uehara. The Rangers are a bit heavy in the right-handed reliever market, but Uehara is still a solid back-end option and could be due for a major home-run-to-flyball ratio correction in Arlington.

Besides Darvish, what other rookies could make an impact in 2012?


Since Jon Daniels took over as general manager before to the 2006 season, the Texas Rangers have prided themselves on scouting and player development. This strategy has been successful and entering the 2012 season, the Rangers have been recognized as having a deep pool of minor league talent.

The Rangers will be looking at how pitching prospects Martin Perez and Neil Ramirez perform this spring. Perez is a left-hander who has gained accolades since breaking out in Low-A in 2009 at the age of 18. He has had his share of bumps, which may have tempered expectations and down-graded him from being a “potential number one ace” to a “probable mid-rotation starter.” Most reports say he should be ready in 2012 and his ceiling could rise if he can harness his command.

Ramirez is a righty who gained a lot of press by flying through many levels at the age of 22. He is a bit lanky but he is expected to fill out his tall frame. He has struggled with his command, which could paint him as a future reliever, but he will be given a long look this spring and could in the mix as the fifth starter if an injury or a Neftali Feliz command-implosion occurs.

Tanner Scheppers will finally be given the developmental path as a reliever after struggles with his command and health made this inevitable. However, he is right-handed and, right now, the team has a bit of a surplus in that department.

One reliever who could make an impact is lefty Miguel De Los Santos. The team is still focused on developing him as a starter, but injuries have kept his innings from growing. De Los Santos can rack up some amazing strikeout numbers (434 Ks in 274 innings) since he was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2006. It’s likely that the team will order De Los Santos to return to Double-A before the season begins, but it would be nice to see what would happen if he were named as the lefty reliever.

On the field, Cuban-import Leonys Martin is expected to make an impact since center field is considered a wide-open position. Last season, Martin made his way to the big league club but seemed to run out of gas late in the year after a long layoff during his defection process. It’s expected that he’ll be in better “baseball shape” in 2012 and could be ready to become an impact top-of-the-order hitter.

One positional favorite of mine is Mike Olt, and his move to first base this season is promising. Mitch Moreland recently admited to being a bit miffed over the possibility of Prince Fielder joining the Rangers and will be motivated to improve this season. If Olt makes further strides to cut down on his strikeout rate, he will be knocking loudly on the big league door and thus providing Moreland with a bit more "motivational inspiration."

Even with the Angels' spending spree, are the Rangers still favorites to repeat as AL West champs?


The recent additions of Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson make the Angels look formidable in 2012, but how worried should the Rangers be?

There are two keys to the Rangers repeating. First, the starting rotation needs to perform as expected. The rotation has a lot of promise and could become one of the more enviable staffs in baseball. If either Harrison or Holland can build upon last season’s success and Darvish can perform at a level near his Oliver projection, then the rotation will be fine.

The other key will be health. It’s probable that Nelson Cruz will fall to an injury, and Hamilton, Ian Kinsler and Adrian Beltre have seen their share of missed time. Another issue is Mike Napoli’s ankle and whether this becomes a concern as we approach the regular season. Last season was promising in terms of Kinsler's ability to stay on the field for 155 games and this offseason has both Cruz and Hamilton reporting to camp noticeably slimmer, but it will be a tall order to expect this core to be on the field for a majority of the 2012 season.

The Angels have an advantage in terms of starting pitching but, offensively, the advantage falls on Texas’ side. The signing of Pujols will bring some life to the Angels' offense but when you factor in Mark Trumbo and the ramifications he could face in trying to learn a new position, the sad probability that Vernon Wells will return as the everyday left fielder and the mountain of questions surrounding Kendrys Morales' return, it's easy to see the Angels coming up short.

If pressed to choose, I would say the Rangers are concerned but I still lean toward Texas returning to the postseason as division champs. The advantage will fall on depth and the Rangers are a more complete team. That will also be advantageous if a deal needs to be made at the trade deadline.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Vince Caramela 2012-03-23T08:08:15+00:00 Five questions: Arizona Diamondbacks http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-arizona-diamondbacks7/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-arizona-diamondbacks7/#When:09:00:15 With the threat of regression in the air, will the Dbacks repeat as 90-game winners?
Two major factors were behind the Diamondbacks' success in 2011: pitching and defense. According to UZR scores, the team ranked first in the National League in team defense with an overall score of 6.5. Breaking this down, we see the team also led in outfield defense with 8.8 and was above average in overall infield defense. Understanding that UZR, or any current defensive metric, is far from perfect, how much of a negative or positive shift can we expect in 2012?

This upcoming season, the team will have Paul Goldschmidt as the full-time first baseman (currently grades as below-average defensively) and Aaron Hill at second (score varies from slightly above-average to average, entering his age-30 season, which could point to the negative).

Willie Bloomquist and John McDonald will be subbing for the injured Stephen Drew for an undisclosed period of time. Bloomquist was capable as a defense shortstop last season, but in 1400-plus innings in his career, he scores as slightly below average. On the other hand, McDonald makes his living as a defensive-minded infielder. It’s just unfortunate that he has a .265 career wOBA as the trade-off.

Finally, Jason Kubel was brought in to add some left-handed power to the lineup. However, he rates as a major defensive downgrade.

Looking at the pitching, last season Arizona starters posted an overall ERA of 3.84, which is solid but falls below their overall FIP and xFIP of 4.13 and 4.11, respectively. In 2012, the team will be adding Trevor Cahill to this unit as the expected No. 3 starter.
Ian Kennedy: 8.03 K/9, 2.23 BB/9, .270 BABIP, 2.88 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.50 xFIP
Daniel Hudson: 6.85 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, .295 BABIP, 3.49 ERA, 3.28, 3.79 xFIP
Josh Collmenter: 5.71 K/9, 1.73 BB/9, .259 BABIP, 3.59 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 4.33 xFIP
Joe Saunders: 4.58 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, .271 BABIP, 3.69 ERA, 4.78 FIP, 4.38 xFIP
Glancing over these numbers, we see all four of the above pitchers showed excellent command and, with the exception of Kennedy, didn’t post any high strikeout numbers. This suggests a pitch-to-contact approach that will be hard to replicate successfully if we expect a defensive downgrade. Over the offseason, the team acquired Cahill as the team’s No. 3 starter.
Trevor Cahill: 6.37 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, .302 BABIP, 4.16 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 3.90 xFIP
Looking over Cahill’s brief 2011 stat line, we see a similar pitcher who doesn’t rely on any overpowering stuff and utilizes a heavy sinker to, hopefully, induce weak contact. He also will need a capable defense in order to show any effectiveness.

Using Oliver as a quick projection model, I have added up all the current WAR projections for the team’s probable 25-man roster, and the numbers fall between being an 84- to 85-win team. This falls well short of last season’s 94 wins.

Based on last season’s runs scored and allowed, the D-backs should have won 89 games, which points to luck playing a slight role. Even with a slight downgrade on defense, I still expect Arizona Dbacks to perform above average defensively; however, I do expect the low BABIP total to rise, which will, in theory, affect the team’s padded ERA totals and shave off some wins in the process.

Is Justin Upton anywhere near his peak in terms of performance?


If we are to believe that offensive players peak at the age of 26 to 27, then Upton, who will be 25 in August, should be in line to show further improvement over the next few seasons.

Currently, our 2012 player forecast sees Upton performing at similar levels previously established, but is it possible that he will eclipse last season’s production level?
image
Upton has the speed and athleticism to assume the favorable position near the top of the provided chart, which is promising in terms of sustaining production. But if you look at the two players most similar to Upton (according to his Baseball-Reference.com page) one will see two names provided at the top: Ruben Sierra and Andruw Jones.

Like Upton, both players were athletic outfielders who made an impact by the age of 20 in the big leagues, and both players were able to parlay their athletic skillset into prolonging their careers into their mid-30's. However, Sierra peaked rather quickly, posting his best season at the age of 2,3 while Jones performed as an above-average power-hitting outfielder before posting his best season at the age of 28.

To further illustrate this, let's go to one of my current obsessions: generating WAR graphs via Fangraphs:

image

In no way is this definitive, since it only involves three names, but it does pose a curious line of trajectories that Upton could follow, eclipse or fit in between. Physically, all three players were listed as 6-foot, 1-inch, but while Sierra was always "leaner," Upton seems more likely to put on extra weight in line with how Jones developed.

To get a general comparison of these three players, one can see that through the age of 23, Sierra well below average in terms of plate discipline while Jones and Upton were similar according to walk-to-strikeout ratio.







































Total PA BB% K% ISO BABIP OPS+
Andruw Jones 2619 8.8 19.6 .220 .284 105
Ruben Sierra 2464 6.0 14.4 .207 .280 113
Justin Upton 2402 10.1 23.9 .211 .337 119

(all stats were taken through the player's age 23 season)

Looking at Upton's season numbers, his walk and strikeout numbers do fluctuate similar to what Jones displayed during his time in Atlanta. Last season, Upton did work to cut down on his strikeouts, going from 26.6 percent in 2010 to 18.7 percent last season while still keeping his swing-and-miss percentage high at 11.6 percent.

This could suggest that adjustments have been made in two-strike situations, which calls for further study, but I do see Upton making further progress overall and posting a few forty-home run seasons before the age of 30.

Are the D-backs making a mistake relegating Gerardo Parra to fourth outfielder?


I’ll admit that having Parra available on the bench is a luxury usually afforded to an elite team, but what if the argument can be made that he is better than the player set to replace him?

Surprisingly, Jason Kubel was one of the more divisive free-agent signings this offseason. When it was announced that Arizona signed Kubel to a two-year deal in December, many saw this as a positive since having Kubel return to an everyday role away from Target Field would give the D-backs a solid source of left-handed power. Others saw this as a drain on the team’s budget and antithetical to the qualities that led to the team’s success.

As an everyday player, Parra does have his limitations. Praised for his excellent arm and ability to patrol left field, Parra doesn’t have the plus power we like to see from our corner outfielders. This season, Parra will be 25 and isn’t a total tweener since he has enough gap power, along with the pitch selection ability, to post an OPS in the .750 to .800 range. On paper, Kubel presents a power upgrade, but his questionable health, struggles against left-handed pitching, and atrocious defense makes him a zero-sum player.

I understand Chase Field is much more favorable to left-handed hitters, and if Kubel can produce thirty-plus homers, then the switch makes sense, but the team is trading off two valuable qualities in age (Kubel will be 30 while Parra is 25) and defense. And with offensive production down across the board, I’ll guess we’ll see if squeezing 10 to 12 extra home runs out of the left-field position will be beneficial at the cost of defense.

What contribution can we expect from Trevor Bauer in 2012?


After compiling an obscene number of innings at UCLA, it was expected that the Diamondbacks would limit Bauer’s appearances during his stint in the Cal and Southern Leagues last season. (In his brief professional career, he has already posted 43 strikeouts in 25-plus innings.) Bauer has been invited to his first big-league camp, but the the preferred developmental plan is to have him report back to Double-A.

However, if Collmenter turns into a pumpkin or Saunders proves completely ineffective, I could see Bauer logging time in the 2012 rotation. His ability to dominate hitters will be a welcome addition to this franchise, but based on his struggles in Double-A Mobile last summer (20 hits allowed in 16.2 innings), it’s probably wise to have him return to Double-A at the start of the season. With that written, I fully expect Bauer to become major league-ready quickly; the question is how soon?

My prediction is that Bauer tears through Double-A hitters and logs about 100 innings before being promoted to Triple-A for about four or five starts and makes his debut in Arizona in late August as a reliever and spot starter. That should set up his next step for 2013 quite nicely.

When can we expect Stephen Drew to return to full health?


Watching Drew suffer an ankle injury on July 20 gave many Arizona fans reason to panic. The team was four-and-a-half games behind the Giants and preparing itself to make a second-half run.

Ankle injuries can be serious and looking at the video, it’s obvious some serious ligament damage occurred based on the fact that his foot was pointing the wrong direction for a few seconds. Since camp began, Drew has been on the field trying to shake off some rust but the team has been extremely cautious in his rehab.

At the time of the injury, Drew was underperforming offensively, hitting only .252/.317/.396, but his defense was key to keeping the D-backs competitive at the time of his injury (for the past few seasons, UZR has rated Drew as an above-average defender).

Drew posted his best offensive season at the age of 27 in 2010, hitting .278/.352/.452 with a .354 wOBA and 133 wRC+ and showing a healthy rise in walk percentage and isolated power that nicely translated into an fWAR of 5.1. This would suggest Drew's first-half numbers last season were an outlier, but even if he returns to complete health, Drew has shown an alarming rise in his strikeout rate that may be indicative of a three-season trend of increasing whiff rates as well as a falling contact rate.

Since 2009, Drew’s overall contact percentage has fallen from 85.3 percent to 82.6 in 2010 to 79.3 percent last season. This also correlates with his increasing swing-and-miss rate that was 6.8 percent in 2009 and has trended upwards from 7.4 percent in 2010 to 8.7 percent in 2011.

It's still early to fully gauge Drew's ability to regain his lateral movement since he hasn't been cleared to play any games this spring, but this injury certainly doesn't help matters. It may take until after the All-Star break until Drew is cleared to return as an everyday player.


Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Vince Caramela 2012-03-19T09:00:15+00:00 2011 Winter Meetings preview http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/2011-winter-meetings-preview/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/2011-winter-meetings-preview/#When:09:48:15
It wasn’t an annual event at the time and, if this corner of the internet is correct, was nothing more than a small gathering of owners designed to massage egos and settle old scores. Times were simple then, baseball players were lucky to make anything close to a livable wage and were about as expendable as a low-level factory employee.

Fast forward a whole lot. The game obviously has changed, and the economics have driven this sport and its subsequent meetings along a curious trajectory. From the days when Babe Ruth was sold to the Yankees for a much-needed $100,000 to the time when Curt Flood famously described himself and his colleagues as “well-paid slaves,” the market has become much more player driven and has complicated many day-to-day operations.

Gone are the days when owners and general managers could act like rowdy pioneers and pull off ten-player trades on cocktail napkins. These days, executives are dealing with expensive commodities steered by many opinions according to market and player analysis.

Don’t get me wrong, baseball executives still drink and pontificate over napkins, but it's probably done in their respective suites while team scouts and baseball operations employees (our eras new "low-paid slave," I suppose, if one is lucky enough to land the job) present their reports while we wait for the agents to set the prices.

Regardless of these changes, this year's winter meetings are set to begin in Dallas, Texas, and the trade show/media storm/job fair/industry get together still should give baseball fans a lot to chew over.

Last year’s meetings started off with the Adrian Gonzalez trade and concluded with the Red Sox’s still staying active and signing Carl Crawford late into the evening. It wasn’t the raucous affair of 1971 or even the 1980 Whitey Herzog trade show, but it supplied everyone with enough surprises and headscratchers to keep us all alert through the new year.


Leading up to the annual event


Since so much of offseason baseball analysis focuses on the speculative, here at The Hardball Times we have been running a series called “Offseason Decisions.” So far we have profiled close to 20 teams, focusing either on a single need or an overall direction.

Going into this offseason, everyone knew Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes and Prince Fielder would be the top prizes among this year’s free-agents. Last night, Reyes signed as soon as the Marlins increased its previous offer to a six-year deal worth $106 million with a seventh-year option. This is expected to decrease Pujols' options significantly, but we have offered opinions in our profiles of the Cardinals and Brewers.

The Nationals and Mariners have threatened to be active in the next few days, and both teams' general managers have hinted in interviews of their plans to become more competitive via the trade and free agency market.

Below is a quick chart of the top free agents as well as the teams linked to them this offseason:

image

The Marlins proved they were serious in taking home at least one offseason prize and will probably bow out of the Pujols sweepstakes, though there are rumors they will make one more run at the slugging first baseman over the next two days.

Reyes' deal with Miami is surprising on a few levels, one of which is that he may have left money on the table as a Plan B option for a few teams, especially if the Giants fail to land Carlos Beltran and if Pujols and/or Fielder find themselves playing for different teams next season.

C.J. Wilson is leading what has become an over-valued arms race. Both the Yankees and Red Sox could use his services, but do they want to add another $100 million contract to their growing baggage? The Angels, Marlins and Nationals have publically courted Wilson, but no one seems ready to pull out the checkbook. The Rangers remain interested but are expected to act only if his price comes down.

After Wilson, teams will have the choice to pursue other options like Mark Buehrle and Edwin Jackson. Both are fine mid-rotation additions. The only problem is that they want to be paid more than they are worth. If that isn’t enough, the Yu Darvish $100 million-plus sweepstakes is rumored to begin after the meetings.

Jimmy Rollins should be retained by the Phillies, but the sticking point seems to be the five-year deal he is requesting. Rollins is 33 years old, but age isn't exactly something the Phillies frown upon.

Finally, Yoenis Cespedes is a name expected to get a lot of attention of the next few days. Both the Yankees and Red Sox have shown interest, but they will have to compete with the Nationals, Tigers and Marlins, all of which are promising to put forth competitive bids.


The trade market


The Giants made the first major trade of this offseason, sending Jonathan Sanchez to the Royals for Melky Cabrera. A few days ago, the Rockies became active by shipping off Chris Iannetta to the Angels in exchange for Tyler Chatwood.

In light of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement announced recently, teams in the mid-to-lower markets hoping to remain competitive through the amateur draft and international market may have to rethink that strategy.

Gone are the days when the Pirates, Rays, and Blue Jays could stockpile and pay over the recommended slot on a slew of compensation- and later-round picks. The new strategy, at least initially, may be to focus on the trade market. The Rays did recently flip John Jaso for the controversial, albeit talented, minor-league reliever Josh Lueke. I wouldn't be too surprised if they finally pull the trigger on trading B.J. Upton and/or Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis for offensive needs.

The Pirates have an attractive commodity in closer Joel Hanrahan. The Bucs could also explore trading Pedro Alvarez. He certainly would draw some interest, but his value is very low, and it may benefit the team to hold on to him until (or if) he figures out MLB pitching.

The Rockies could be interesting. They already flipped a few key players and are drawing interest from other teams for Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Stewart and closer Huston Street. The Braves have been linked to them frequently, but many feel the team is stubborn in its asking prices for Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado.

The White Sox have vowed to "let the kids play," but with a minor league system this bare, it may be time to part with Carlos Quentin and John Danks.

One team selling from an area of strength is the Oakland A's. This franchise has never had problems developing pitching, and with offense being a desperate need, they should have little trouble finding interest in pitchers Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Brandon McCarthy and Andrew Bailey.

Both the Reds and Mets are holding on to everyone's favorite speculative trade targets in David Wright and Joey Votto. The Mets are exploring Wright's value, but his contract makes him a free agent next offseason if traded. The Reds, according to to our recent offseason piece, may not be as inclined to move Votto as many originally hoped.

Finally, the Astros are in a peculiar situation. The team's plan, post 2011 CBA, was to model itself after the Rangers and Rays by focusing on scouting and player development. The plan is still feasible, but it will take some creativity to pull off. They do hold an effective trade chip in Wandy Rodriguez, but I wouldn't expect any transactions to take place until the team lands a long-term general manager.


Which team could surprise during these meetings?


At last year's winter meetings, the Nationals came out of nowhere to snag a big fish in Jayson Werth. The offseason before that, the Mariners were surprising in their activity. Could the Diamondbacks jump out of the bushes and sign Wilson? He definitely would be an upgrade over Joe Saunders.

What about the Indians or the Royals? The AL Central is for the taking, but I can't see anyone beyond Wilson even close to these teams' radar.

The Mariners seem frisky and somewhat serious about landing Fielder. I think that would qualify as surprising if it happened.

Finally, the team that is in a position to blow everyone out of the water is the Cubs. They have the revenue to land a serious blow against their rivals, the Cardinals, by snatching Pujols away. They have been coy since the front office transition, but with restrictions imposed upon amateur and international spending, they could easily say "Screw it!" and flex some spending power now and figure out things later.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Vince Caramela 2011-12-05T09:48:15+00:00 Baseball GMs land in Milwaukee http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/baseball-gms-land-in-milwaukee/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/baseball-gms-land-in-milwaukee/#When:05:06:15
Unlike the winter meetings scheduled for early next month, this annual get-together is a bit more relaxed and allows all 30 general managers to meet and lay out their plans for the offseason. Owners are scheduled to meet on Thursday, when the focus is expected to be on new Astros owner Jim Crane a new collective bargaining agreement.

Here's a look at each general manager who will be at his first such meeting, at least with his current team. Some are returning from last season with a new team, others have been out of commission for a while and a few can finally know what it feels like to have this exclusive title.


Dan Duquette, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 53
Previous experience: Began as a scout for the Milwaukee Brewers; 1992-93 served as GM of the Montreal Expos; 1994-2002 served as GM of the Boston Red Sox.

It’s no secret that Duquette was the team’s distant fifth or sixth choice, but after scaring off other promising candidates the Orioles settled on this front office veteran. Duquette was a major architect of the successful 1994 Expos and later helped lay the foundation for the multiple World Series winning Red Sox during the 2000s. Duquette promises to govern in a way similar to his days in Montreal. He is an active trader and capable of finding success on a budget, but he will have his work cut out for him.

What we can expect this offseason: The team can go in two very different directions. First, he could blow up the team by trading off valuable players like J.J. Hardy, Adam Jones, Jeremy Guthrie and even Mark Reynolds. This strategy would leave the team incredibly bare and would only serve to shave off close to $27 million for next season. That’s not a whole lot of money when you take into consideration the key positional players who are being dealt, so the return would have to be look promising to make it worth it.

The other option is to keep these players and try to add some extra wins by investing in a cheaper mid-rotation pitcher and see if Luke Scott’s shoulder is healthy enough come January. Assuming the Orioles project as 70-74-win team next season. will it be worth it to pay for a few extra wins in the hope of reaching 78-80? Based on the strong competition in the AL East, where 78 wins could still mean last place, I don’t think so. But this seems to be the direction that owner Peter Angelos and manager Buck Showalter are heading. I just hope the team drafts well over the next few seasons.

Terry Ryan, Minnesota Twins
Age: 58
Previous experience: Began his career as a scout for the New York Mets; hired as the Twins' scouting director in the late '80s; served as Twins GM from 1994-2007; remained as senior advisor to the Twins 2007-2011.

Ryan is an excellent player evaluator and is very shrewd in off-loading veterans for young, major league-ready talent. The question is for how long can we expect Ryan to be the acting general manager? Will he remain through the winter meetings? Step down before spring training? Strong rumors do suggest that Mike Radcliffe, the Twins' current minor league scouting director, could get the job fairly soon.

What we can expect this offseason: The Twins signed Jamey Carroll for two years at $7 million total. They have declined the option on Joe Nathan and don’t seem particularly interested in bringing back Matt Capps, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. Ryan is known to flip affordable veterans for useful prospects, so it’s expected he’ll listen to offers on Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker.

Josh Byrnes, San Diego Padres
Age: 41
Previous experience: Scouting director for the Cleveland Indians in 1998; named assistant GM for the Colorado Rockies 1999-2000; assistant GM of the Boston Red Sox from 2002-2005; GM Arizona Diamondbacks from 2005-2010; named VP of baseball operations for the San Diego Padres 2010-2011.

Byrnes is your classic boom-or-bust GM. He's not afraid to take chances and is open-minded to new strategies. His tenure as GM of the D-backs had its share of good and bad moments with trades for Chris Young and Ian Kennedy still paying dividends for the current squad. He did have some misses in firing a bit early on Carlos Quentin and the return haul he received when he shipped Randy Johnson off to the Yankees was a bit underwhelming for fans in Arizona. Owner Jeffrey Moorad has all the confidence in Byrnes and his staff, so expect him to be very active this offseason.

What we can expect this offseason: Jason Bartlett should fetch some interest from teams like Atlanta or St. Louis and others looking for an affordable shortstop. Chase Headley is a named frequently mentioned by opposing teams. Byrnes has been known to trade some of his highly regarded prospects for a big name player if the contract makes sense.

Jed Hoyer, Chicago Cubs
Age: 37
Previous experience: was co-assistant GM of the Boston Red Sox from 2005-2009; named GM of the San Diego Padres 2009-11.

Both Hoyer and the team's new ,president of baseball operations, Theo Epstein, are entering an offseason very similar to the one they had when they were first tabbed to improve the Boston Red Sox. The Cubs generate a lot of revenue, so spending above the average payroll shouldn’t be a problem. Hoyer’s background is in quantitative analysis, but he values the opinions of his scouts, especially Jason McLeod, who was named senior vice president of scouting and player development and was also a key member of the Red Sox' successful front office.

What we can expect this offseason: The Cubs do have the spending power to make a big splash this offseason, but the team may fill some of itsr needs with short-term options. So far the market has been higher than last offseason for such fringe utility infielders—Willie Bloomquist, Jamey Carroll and Mark Ellis all received multi-year deals. For a team that has been saddled with so many bad contracts, it looks like some light is at the end of the tunnel. Epstein and Hoyer both seem firm on not bringing back Aramis Ramirez and will be looking to fill third base with no one spectacular unless a trade is made. Carlos Marmol could be an interesting name offered for a position of need.

Ben Cherington, Boston Red Sox
Age: 36
Previous experience: Began as an advance scout for the Cleveland Indians in the late '90s; named co-assistant GM of the Boston Red Sox 2005-2009; named assistant GM of the Red Sox 2009-2011.

And then there was one. After the Red Sox spent years building a dream team of front office types in Boston, Cherington looks to be the last man of note with the Red Sox. He comes from a strong background in both statistical and scouting analysis and has his work cut out for him as he looks to quickly re-mold one of the league's storied franchises to his liking.

What we can expect this offseason: I'm sure the Red Sox's aren't ready to give Cherington complete autonomy this offseason, which is probably smart in light of last season's spending spree. Boston's new GM will have to decide on the structure of next season's bullpen while also factoring in the ramifications of losing David Ortiz to free agency. The market for relievers has gone haywire with Jonathan Papelbon's recent defection as well as the contract nearly given to Ryan Madson. Up until last September Daniel Bard seemed like a lock to be the closer in 2012. I think he still has a chance and as insurance it may help to look at a cheaper option like Joe Nathan.

Jerry Dipoto, California Angels
Age: 43
Previous experience: Scouting director for the Colorado Rockies 2003-2004; named scouting director and director of player personnel for Arizona Diamondbacks 2005-2010; named interim GM of Arizona Diamondbacks 2010.

Dipoto made quite a name for himself during his brief tenure as interim GM of the D-backs during the second half of 2010, though by current estimations he seemed to whiff on the Dan Haren deal for Joe Saunders and prospects. However, he came out on top in the trade that sent Edwin Jackson to the White Sox for current D-backs ace Dan Hudson.

What we can expect this offseason: Dipoto has shown the ability to effectively cut payroll and move veterans for younger players with interesting upside. Current Angels owner Arte Moreno surprised many insiders when he signed his new GM to a five-year contract. The team is expected to not shoulder much of a payroll past last season's $141 million. Some money is coming off the books with Joel Pineiro and Fernando Rodney expected to walk as free agents. Dipoto will be looking for back-end starters and some depth in the bullpen. Expect him to slash payroll through trades, but this could be tough since most of the enviable players like Peter Bourjos and Howie Kendrick aren't as expensive as some of the albatrosses they would like to kick out.

Other GM notes


Will the Astros have a new GM before the start of next month’s winter meetings? Jim Crane is expected to take over as principal owner on Nov. 21 and current Astros GM Ed Wade has been on the hot seat since the team was sold last May.

It’s expected that new ownership wants to operate on a low payroll, in the short term, while focusing on improving their farm system. Wade has pretty much operated under Crane’s plan, so it’s possible that he remains on board through the rest of the offseason.

The Dodgers' hiring of Alex Tamin received a lot of buzz last week. I’m sure he’ll do a fine job as the team looks to find a fair long-term price for Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. Tamin looks like an excellent addition and provides the team with a legitimate chance to finally replace Kim Ng, who departed earlier this year. What’s curious is how Dodgers GM Ned Colletti has jumped all over this as proof that he ready to turn a new leaf… into the crazy and dangerous world of statistical analysis.

We’ll see if the new owners will buy it.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Vince Caramela 2011-11-15T05:06:15+00:00 Offseason decisions: Are the Braves over-reaching? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/offseason-decisions-are-the-braves-overreaching/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/offseason-decisions-are-the-braves-overreaching/#When:09:44:15 One of a series on dilemmas facing major league teams this winter.

After the team’s epic collapse in September a meeting was held between Braves general manager Frank Wren and his manager, Fredi Gonzalez. The meeting was designed to accomplish two things. First, it was a chance for both sides of the organization to go over terms like team philosophy, player attitudes and other general topics. The second part was for management to placate its angry fan base and decide who should be sent out for public execution.

After a season of a paltry .243/.308/.387 and a team wOBA of .304, it was obvious that the blame should be directed at the offense. Sure, Brian McCann, Jason Heyward, Chipper Jones, Martin Prado, Nate McLouth and Alex Gonzalez all missed a combined 190 games due to DL time and day-to-day injuries. But Wren focused on the Braves' high frequency of strikeouts, which resulted in 20.8 percent of the team’s output. This along with the team’s failure in “situational hitting” was all it took for both men to decide that first-year hitting coach Larry Parrish would be asked to not return for next season.

The Derek Lowe trade


The decision to trade Derek Lowe wasn’t surprising. Fans and beat writers were expecting this about a year after he signed his four-year, $60 million contract in 2009. Make no mistake, he was a serviceable pitcher, but he was never impressive enough to carry that high a price tag in Atlanta. Before the final season of that contract, the Braves finally got their wish, although they will be saving only about a third of his remaining pay.

It wasn’t how they envisioned it, but moving Lowe as a pure “roster dump” was necessary to make some space for their upcoming major league-ready prospects. As it currently stands, the 2012 Braves rotation consists of:

Tim Hudson (signed through 2012 with a club option in 2013)
Tommy Hanson (one season left before arbitration, free agent before the 2016 season)
Jair Jurrjens (due for arbitration, free agent before 2014)
Brandon Beachy (not due for arbitration until after 2013)

That is an enviable foundation for just about any team in baseball. Then, you factor in the options available for the fifth spot: Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Kris Medlen. Things look quite promising.

The Braves' ultimate plan


Knowing what the team needs offensively as well as taking advantage of the weak starting pitching market, the Braves offered Jurrjens and Prado to the Royals for outfield prospects Lorenzo Cain and Wil Myers. The deal was reportedly rejected by the Royals, but the Braves seem to be firm in their belief that Jurrjens should net a sizeable return.

The Braves are showcasing Jurrjens as exactly what he is on the surface: a young, affordable pitcher capable of fitting into a team’s No. 2 or No. 3 rotation slot while primed to improve upon last season’s stats of 13 wins with a 2.96 ERA. However, looking under the hood shows a pitcher with an alarming reduction in velocity as well as a shrinking strikeout rate that went from 6.7 in 2010 to 5.3 last season.

Jurrjens missed some time due to knee ailments that surfaced toward the end of the 2011 season. This further complicates Jurrjens’ stock since this was the same knee that was operated on one year earlier. But the Braves seem determined to shop Jurrjens this offseason and, as they say, all it takes is one buyer, but with GMs like Ed Wade and Ned Colletti firmly planted in seller mode and Omar Minaya still looking for a job, it’s going to be hard to sell high on a pitcher basically on the merits of wins and ERA.

If no team takes the bait on Jurrjens, what’s next?


Assuming that many of their key players will be healthy next season, the Braves should see an offensive boost based on their current roster. But the huge vacancy at shortstop needs to be addressed.

Looking at the current team and adjusting for probable arbitration settlements and the $10 million owed to Lowe next season, the current team payroll comes in at around $89 million. The team has said it plans to raise its payroll for next season to the $91 million range in 2011. This will allow Wren and company some flexibility to address the team’s needs outside of the trade market.

The extra spending does come with a cap, which is why the Braves haven’t courted the services of big ticket players like Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins. Currently, Tyler Pastornicky has been penciled in as the de-facto starter at short, but team officials feel he isn’t quite ready to be an everyday major league player. If Wren’s master plan of flipping Jurrjens for either J.J. Hardy, Alexei Ramirez or Asdrubal Cabrera as well as legitimate prospects (I’m joking on all three of those scenarios) doesn’t work, then I think it would benefit the Braves to pursue cheaper defensive options like Clint Barmes or Ronny Cedeno.

Looking over the defensive metrics the past few seasons, we can see that the Braves could use some help in that department. As the Braves move toward a younger pitching staff, the focus on defense could be that extra advantage it needs.

With Michael Bourn firmly planted in center field and Heyward as the probable everyday right fielder, the search begins to find an upgrade over Prado in left. Since no internal options are ready (although Joey Terdoslavich could be interesting this spring) and assuming no one is brought in via trade, the market could pose some interesting, albeit limited, choices.

David DeJesus isn’t getting any younger but he does bring some positives that the Braves could use. He is an excellent defender and makes contact while showing patience at the plate. The Braves keep Prado, he and DeJesus could serve as a useful platoon next season, although Prado hits lefties and righties with equal value.

All the promise Conor Jackson once had could be a thing of the past. He’s probably no more than a utility option, but if the Braves want to gamble on something close to a minor league contract, they could do worse.

Ryan Ludwick could be a buy-low option in the outfield. His right-handed bat should mix well, but he has a lot of drawbacks, including his age (33) and high strikeout percentage.

Grady Sizemore may get his tires kicked. He’s open to a one-year deal and a move to a corner outfield spot, if necessary. But he is a major injury risk and his growing strikeout rate is alarming.

Unless Prado and Jurrjens can be traded for something better, this may be the best the Braves can hope for. This may seem hopeless, but the team can benefit from standing pat this offseason since the offense should immediately improve once health settles in.

As we saw with last season’s Reds team, nothing is guaranteed when a team enters spring training armed with a depth of young pitching. Hudson is expected to shoulder another 200 innings, but with Hanson’s shoulder injury and Jurrjens' knee issues and dropoff in velocity, this team could find its depth tested next season.
This offseason, Hanson has undergone a regimen designed to strengthen his shoulder, but nothing will become known until January.

The rest of the rotation will consist of Beachy, who has shown excellent progress in his development despite the lopsided home run rates he allowed in June and July. His innings progression has also been well-managed (maybe even a bit conservatively) going from 135 in 2010 to 146.2 last season. Like all young pitchers, he’s still learning his craft and has some areas to improve upon (keeping his percentage of fly balls in check) while also hoping to replicate others (mostly his incredible strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.67).

Mix all this with some high-upside pitching prospects and late season fortunes could be smiling for the Braves next season.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Vince Caramela 2011-11-11T09:44:15+00:00 Offseason decisions: The Rangers and C.J. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/offseason-decisions-the-rangers-and-c.j/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/offseason-decisions-the-rangers-and-c.j/#When:08:29:15 One of a series on dilemmas facing major league teams this winter.

A few days ago, general manager Jon Daniels announced that the Rangers were going to pick up the club option on Colby Lewis for 2012. The decision was a no-brainer. For a solid mid-rotation starter like Lewis, a club option of $3.5 million is a bargain in today’s market.

Predictably, Daniels was asked about the future of the Rangers organization. With wounds still fresh from the heartbreaking loss in the recent World Series, the mood became somber but the overall message was optimistic. Daniels stressed that the franchise is committed to winning and that its “team process and philosophy” has proven successful. As far as the ownership is concerned; nothing is going to change and the team will stay focused on keeping its course to winning for next season and into the future.

That process has certainly paid off well, The Rangers have reached the World Series the past two seasons and are a favorite to contend next season. This success has brought the team some financial flexibility which grants the Rangers the luxury to become major players in the free agency market.

The Rangers' offseason mantra: depth and versatility



In same press conference announcing Lewis' signing, Daniels stressed that the key focus will be depth and versatility as he and his staff go assemble the 2012 team.
However, keeping the current team together will be expensive.

According to fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement), the Rangers had a team total of 60.6 which was best among major league teams last season. Even more impressive was the fact it was assembled on a budget of $92 million, a payroll close to the league average of $95 million.

Of course with all that quality comes a price. This offseason the team faces a high number of players qualifying for arbitration—nine. Many of these players will be necessary if the team expects to continue forward in 2012.

The Rangers are likely to retain the services of many arbitration-eligible players such as Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, Mike Adams and Mike Napoli. But some of these cases could become contentious: Napoli, Andrus and Harrison are expected to qualify for some hefty raises that should see their salaries nearly double and even quadruple.


































































Name Pos Class 2011 Salary 2012 Salary Proj.
Mike Napoli C 1B Arb 4 $5.8 M $9.2 M
Nelson Cruz RF Arb 2 $3.6 M $5.7 M
Mike Adams RP Arb 3 $2.5 M $4.5 M
David Murphy UT OF Arb 2 $2.4 M $3.2 M
Elvis Andrus SS Arb 1 $0.4 M $2.9 M
Matt Harrison SP Arb 1 $0.4 M $2.9 M
Mark Lowe RP Arb 3 $1.2 M $1.6 M
Andres Blanco UT IF Arb 1 $0.5 M $0.5 M


To retain those above players, the payroll for the 2012 season will push well past last season’s $92 million budget toward something closer to $105 million. With the team enjoying a steady increase in revenue as well as a new television deal set to take off in 2014, the Rangers can easily move into a higher pay scale, but one major piece is missing.

The case for signing C.J. Wilson



The popular guess has Wilson signing a five year deal worth around $75 million. That factors to around $15 million per season and seems to be on par with other front-end starters. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2010, Wilson has averaged well over 200 innings while showing improvement in his overall effectiveness, going from a 1.83 K/BB ratio in 2010 to 2.78 last season. He has also compiled a 10.5 fWAR total since becoming a starter.

According to current WAR valuations, a win is likely worth between $4 million and $5 million next season. If Wilson can come close to the 5.9 fWAR, then the Rangers could find themselves on the right side of this deal. Even a lower average of 4.0 will net the team a good return on its investment.

Wilson will turn 31 this month. As a starter, his velocity has taken the expected dip dropping from an average of 93-94 mph to 90-91, but how much of this can be attributed to age? Properly assessing a pitcher’s aging curve can be difficult since factors like “situational pitching” can improve with age while power pitchers tend to peak earlier.

Wilson is in a unique category in that he began his major league career in the bullpen after two failed starts in August of 2005. He never had a blazing fastball, but being a left hander with the ability to throw an effective slider as well as having a feel for the change-up made him worth a roster spot. Looking at our Oliver forecasts through 2017, Wilson is expected to age well as he becomes a solid mid-rotation pitcher averaging a 3.6 WAR during that time.

Without Wilson in the rotation, the Rangers would be expected to depend on Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison to keep things in order at the top. All three pitchers are very capable, but can they sustain their increase in innings?

Probable 2012 Rangers rotation (2011 stats)






























































IP K/9 BB/9 HR/FB FIP xFIP fWAR
Derek Holland 198 7.36 3.05 11% 3.94 3.76 3.6
Alexi Ogando 169 6.71 2.29 7.8% 3.65 3.94 3.6
Matt Harrison 185.2 6.11 2.76 7.1% 3.52 3.85 4.2
Colby Lewis 200.1 7.59 2.52 11.9% 4.54 4.1 2.3
Scott Feldman 32 6.19 2.81 12.5% 3.99 3.72 0.3


Looking at the table above, only Colby Lewis was able to reach the 200-inning plateau. Holland, Harrison and Ogando came close, but a workload increase that averaged around 127.1 innings had to be achieved.

The Rangers don’t subscribe to the theory of restricted pitch counts, extended rest and mandatory time spent in certain minor league levels. I did wrongly predict that Wilson would fall to some injury time prior to the 2011 season, based on his jump in innings. Injuries are tough to predict and it’s entirely possible that everyone listed above comes back fully healthy and ready to shoulder 200 plus innings. Or, based on Holland’s age (25 next season), Ogando’s tendency to wear down in July and August, and Harrison’s past shoulder problems, this unit could unravel due to a hangover effect.

The case against signing Wilson



When addressing needs such as depth and versatility, one doesn’t expect the focus to be on a single elite player. Last season, the Rangers made a push to re-sign Cliff Lee and felt they were in a good position to retain him. When Lee decided to go elsewhere, the team regrouped and courted its first major free agent since Daniels came on board by signing Adrian Beltre at a cheaper rate over the same amount of years it would take to keep Lee.

Now, Daniels is faced with another major piece of his starting rotation ready to depart. He hasn’t made a firm commitment yet to the team’s intentions regarding Wilson, but seems more inclined to wait and see how the market plays out.

Wilson is certainly the most attractive pitcher available in the free agency market, but the lack of other choices may be superficially driving up his price. Wilson has said that he wants to be made to feel special this offseason. The Rangers will certainly keep their eye on him, but I doubt any serious courting and desperate late night phone calls will be made. The team is well aware of its internal options, but could any of them realistically be included in the 2012 rotation?

Neftali Feliz: Even if Wilson is retained, I expect the team to re-visit the idea of converting Feliz into a starting pitcher. Last season had its ups and downs for him; early during spring training, Feliz seemed resistant to the idea of recreating himself into a different pitcher after his 2010 sucess. This was expected, but after he worked with pitching coach Mike Maddux on developing a two-seam fastball some positive news began to surface.

Now if the team decides to try Feliz out again for a spot on the starting rotation, he may have to do it without the services of Maddux. since it’s looking very possible that he becomes a manager next season.

Martin Perez had his struggles in the Pacific Coast League last season. I haven’t seen him pitch but many prospect mavens see his ceiling as a solid No. 2 or No. 3 pitcher. He turns 21 in April and could benefit from a little more seasoning in Triple-A. Some reports noticed his strikeout percentage on the rise toward the end of last season.

Neil Ramirez had issues with shoulder fatigue but could be pressed into starting duty if all signs say go. Scouts don’t see No. 1 potential, but he could serve as a solid mid-rotation starter. He does have a tendency to be a fly ball pitcher, which should be addressed.

Miguel De Los Santos: I was able to watch him start an Arizona Fall League game a few weeks ago. He flashed a solid fastball and sneaky change-up when ahead in the count. His command eventually got sloppy after four innings, which is why scouts figure him as a high leverage reliever.

If the minors don’t prove fruitful, Daniels could look into the trade market, where James Shields, Wandy Rodriguez and (gasp!) Tim Lincecum could be available this offseason. (Please note: Lincecum’s name was added after a fun, speculative piece yesterday on FanGraphs… nothing official.) The Rangers do have access to some enviable prospects and affordable major league talent, making their phone calls welcome to any team looking to barter.

Finally, the Rangers have a wealth of options available if another team caves in on Wilson’s expected price. But if the Rangers feel that Wilson is worth the $15 million per season, that should drive the 2012 payroll up to $120 million. That isn’t out of line, especially for a team whose revenue has been on the rise.

However, the team could stand firm and looks toward a mega-trade for a younger, more prototypical No. 1-type starter. This also would allow them to fill any rotation leaks with other internal options and possibly save their payroll for another bat.

Perhaps the Rangers can entice one of those expensive first basemen to come south to bat cleanup next season. Fom what I understand, the Rangers face another dilemma next offseason when Josh Hamilton declares himself a free agent. Having a Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols on the 2013 roster could make a Hamilton departure much easier to swallow, but let’s save that for next year.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Vince Caramela 2011-11-04T08:29:15+00:00 The surprise World Series http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/2011-world-series-preview/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/2011-world-series-preview/#When:10:28:15
The odds were not good that these two teams would be here. Even before the season, both had to forge ahead after losing the services of their ace pitcher. The Rangers were spurned by Cliff Lee, who went to Philadelphia, while the Cardinals were left with serious doubts after Adam Wainwright fell to an elbow injury days before spring training began. And if that wasn’t enough, both teams had to deal with the potential fallout of clubhouse leaders Michael Young and Albert Pujols going public with their dissatisfaction with the teams front offices.

Still, through 162 games and into playoff time, both teams relied on timely hits, steady power and a deep and efficient bullpen to advance to the final series of 2011.

Combined postseason statistics


In the 11 games against the Phillies and the Brewers, the Cardinals combined to hit .288/.345/.448 in 430 total plate appearances. The Cardinals had some major question marks at the start of the postseason, due to a late-season hand injury to Matt Holliday. But, after pinch-hitting in Game One of the NLDS, Holliday came back, looks healthy and has helped the Cardinals' 3-4-5 hitters produce a combined .354/.422/.580 in the postseason.

In the 10 games against the Rays and Tigers, the Rangers' combined offense was .259/.330/.434 in 390 plate appearances. ALCS MVP Nelson Cruz completely disappeared against the Rays (going 1-for-15 with five strikeouts) but more than made up for that against the Tigers by clubbing six home runs in his next 24 plate appearances.

The struggles of both teams' starting pitchers have been widely discussed. The Rangers are still waiting for the 2011 regular season version of C.J. Wilson to show up. He leads a staff that has posted a 5.34 ERA after both series. A bright spot: In 49.2 innings pitched, Texas’ starters have 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings.

For St. Louis, things haven’t been much better as Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse and Edwin Jackson have combined for a 5.68 ERA with a paltry 5.91 strikeouts per nine innings.

Projected lineups and pitching match-ups


Warning: the following tables have been posted based upon the author’s speculation and/or ignorance. In no way do these reflect or represent the official decisions made by both the St. Louis Cardinals or the Texas Rangers.




























Rangers Cardinals
Game One C.J. Wilson* Chris Carpenter
Game Two Colby Lewis Jaime Garcia*
Game Three Matt Harrison* Kyle Lohse
Game Four Derek Holland* Edwin Jackson

(*indicates left-handed pitcher)

Nothing is official as of this writing but it's probable that the Rangers will go with C.J. Wilson for Game One with Colby Lewis bumped to being the Game Two starter because he's pitched better on the road this season.

I have Derek Holland and Jackson set to face off in Game Four but that could easily be flipped for the Matt Harrison-Lohse match-up. There is some talk that Jake Westbrook could be added on to the World Series roster. Both manager Tony La Russa and Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan have stressed the importance of countering the Rangers offense in Arlington by having them face more groundball pitchers in Games Three, Four and Five.

This could also force the Cardinals to move Jaime Garcia (54.9 percent career groundball rate) to Game Three starter while Kyle Lohse (41.8 percent career groundball rate) gets bumped up to the second game. Adding Garcia to start Game Three in Texas could also force manager Ron Washington to stretch the lineup a bit more, since Michael Young will probably remain the first baseman with Yorvit Torrealba making an appearance at DH. This will also force David Murphy’s bat out of the game for some time but, defensively, the Rangers will upgrade with Craig Gentry moving to center while Josh Hamilton shifts over to left field.




























































































Rangers Cardinals
1 Ian Kinsler 2B SS Rafael Furcal** 1
2 Elvis Andrus SS CF Jon Jay* 2
3 Josh Hamilton* CF 1B Albert Pujols 3
4 Michael Young DH/1B RF/DH Lance Berkman** 4
5 Adrian Beltre 3B LF Matt Holliday 5
6 Mike Napoli C 3B David Freese 6
7 Nelson Cruz RF RF(@ AL) Allen Craig 7
8 David Murphy* LF C Yadier Molina 8
9a Mitch Moreland* 1B (@ AL) 2B Nick Punto** 9a
9b Pitcher Pitcher 9b

(*indicates left-handed hitter; **indicates switch-hitter)


Assorted keys to success


The Rangers' hitters could benefit from the Cardinals' lack of strikeouts, especially from their starting pitchers. If the Rangers can work to make consistent contact, things could move in a positive direction for their offense.

For the Cardinals, Lance Berkman will need to get hot, especially against left-handed pitching. Berkman hasn’t shown much power since Game One of the NLDS, but he has made consistent contact. Prior to this season Berkman didn’t look like a viable option as a right-handed hitter (in 2009-10 he hit a combined .270 wOBA against lefties). This season, he seemed to make the proper adjustments, posting a .353 wOBA and a 126 wRC+ against southpaws. With three lefties in the Rangers rotation, Berkman looks to be doing a lot of hitting from the right side of the plate during this series.

The DH could bring an advantage to the Cardinals since it should allow Allen Craig a few more plate appearances. This will also help the Cardinals' defensive scheme since it’ll be expected that Berkman will DH in Texas while allowing Craig to play in right field.

The 3-4-5 hitters for the Rangers have had their ups and downs during this postseason. Josh Hamilton has shown some consistency at the plate but the combined 16 strikeouts between Young and Adrian Beltre against the Tigers could become problematic if adjustments aren’t made (although it should be noted that they combined for only three strikeouts in the ALDS.

The possible addition of Mark Lowe to the Rangers bullpen may spell the end of Koji Uehara’s 2011 postseason.

Finally, this should prove, once again, to be a battle of the bullpens. Both teams are incredibly deep in this department and with each team having four or five capable set-up men as a bridge, things could come down to whoever has a bad game or makes a mistake.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Vince Caramela 2011-10-19T10:28:15+00:00 What to look for in the Division Series http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/2011-division-series-preview/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/2011-division-series-preview/#When:09:56:15 Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees



























Game One Det @ NYY Sep. 30, 2011
Game Two Det @ NYY Oct. 1, 2011
Game Three NYY @ Det Oct. 3, 2011
Game Four* NYY @ Det Oct. 4, 2011
Game Five* Det @ NYY Oct. 6, 2011

Pitching match-ups: Since both teams secured their postseason spots well in advance, the Tigers and the Yankees had the luxury of resting their Game One starters. Tonight, Justin Verlander, Detroit Tiger and AL Cy Young Award favorite, will be matched up against the Yankees' CC Sabathia.

Both pitchers had an excellent regular season, with Sabathia showing he’s still a solid workhorse while succeeding in one of the most competitive divisions in baseball. However, Verlander’s 24 victories and a nationally televised no-hitter on May 7 against the Toronto Blue Jays probably gives him the edge when awards are handed out this offseason.

Below are some selected full season stats of both pitchers.




































K/9 BB/9 BABIP GB% SwStrk% ERA FIP xFIP
CC Sabathia 8.72 2.31 .318 46.6 11.2 3.00 2.88 3.02
Justin Verlander 8.96 2.04 .236 40.2 10.2 2.40 2.99 3.12


They are pretty evenly matched, though since August Sabathia has been hounded by a high BABIP, which has allowed opposing teams to compile double-digit hits in five of his last 10 starts.

During that same span, Verlander has given up more home runs than usual. In his last 69.1 innings dating back to Aug. 6, he has watched 10 home runs sail over the wall. Looking at the data supplied by HitTracker, these 10 were classified as either “plenty” or “no doubters” and would have easily cleared most major league fences.

The second game should see Detroit calling on Doug Fister against the Yankees' Ivan Nova. Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello should get the call as Detroit’s Game Three and Four starters. On the Yankees side, manager Joe Girardi announced that he'll go with three starters in the ALDS, with Freddy Garcia slated to start Game Three and Sabathia set to return on three day’s rest if Game Four is necessary.

Both bullpens figure to be solid, especially with Detroit’s Al Alburquerque harnessing his command since returning from injuries. He and Joaquin Benoit will be heavily used but the key will be for Jose Valverde to continue finding success despite some statistical warning signs: His K/BB ratio is 2.03 and his FIP (3.55) and xFIP (4.01) far exceed his 2.24 ERA.

Surprising roster moves: The Yankees could be carrying only 11 pitchers with the addition of Chris Dickerson to the active ALDS roster. Since the Tigers’ lineup isn’t too left-handed heavy, the team figured it was unnecessary to roster either Raul Valdes or Aaron Laffey as a second lefty-specialist.

The Tigers seem to have no surprises with Carlos Guillen expected to sit out with a calf strain. This should allow manager Jim Leyland to grab one of his favorite futility... er, utility players. I know Andy Dirks forgot to bring his lucky bat when the Tigers were putting on a laser show this month, but he does bat left-handed and that has to translate into value somewhere.

Keys to success: With everyone bemoaning the state of the Yankees rotation, it’s no surprise that Girardi decided to use a three-man set with A.J. Burnett, Bartolo Colon and Phil Hughes as likely shadows. Sabathia has long claimed to feed off the adrenaline of do-or-die starts on short rest (and the small data samples do confirm this), but we’ll see if he has enough gas in the tank if the Yankees advance.

The Tigers have been one of the better offensive teams, hitting .310/.374/.519 with a .384 team wOBA during the final month of season. Part of this was fueled by the league’s highest team BABIP of .357 and the second-highest team homer-per-fly ball ratio of 15 percent. Knowing how fickle these stats can be, especially at a team level, it will be a tall order to expect this kind of production to continue.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers





























Game One TB @ Tex Sep. 30, 2011
Game Two TB @ Tex Oct. 1, 2011
Game Three Tex @ TB Oct. 3, 2011
Game Four* Tex @ TB Oct. 4, 2011
Game Five* TB @ Tex Oct. 6, 2011

Pitching match-ups: With David Price used in Wednesday’s finale, the Rays announced that rookie Matt Moore will be the Game One starter, with James Shields set for Game Two in Arlington. Price will get the call on normal rest for Game Three with Jeremy Hellickson as the logical candidate for Game Four.

Prior to the Moore announcement, Jeff Niemann looked to be the de facto starter. Niemann was always a dicey option to start the first game due to the alarming frequency of home runs he has surrendered the past two months. In September, Niemann has given up six home runs in only 23.1 innings, which translates into an alarming 2.31 HR/9 as well as a 28.6 percent HR/FB ratio.

But putting this into further perspective, let’s eliminate the higher-than-usual home run rate from Niemann’s bloated September ERA of 6.94. That leaves us with an xFIP of 3.94. Niemann has pitched better over the second half and that huge divide between his ERA and xFIP is proof that a quality pitcher exists somewhere in that 6-foot-9 frame. Wade Davis was also a possibility, but his struggles against right-handed hitters this season (4.70 K/9; 3.48 BB/9; 1.41 HR/9; 5.37 FIP) should squash that idea, especially with a potent lineup as right-hand heavy as the Rangers.

On the Texas side, C.J. Wilson has been a consistent ace this season. Wilson will start Game One at home with fellow southpaw Derek Holland next. They'll be followed in some order by Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis. Lewis hasn’t been quite as effective as he was last season, but he does have value on the road. Most of Lewis’ troubles have been due to the long ball: He's allowed more home runs this season, with a HR/FB rate of 12 percent, despite similar peripherals to last season.

High fly ball pitchers like Lewis rate closer to 12 percent and this should be normal as we go forward. However, he has struggled to keep the ball in the park at home (15.8 percent HR/FB; 2.14 HR/9) compared to away (8.5 percent HR/FB; 1.09 HR/9). He is still effective against right-handed batters since his slider grades above average according to weighted pitch type values, but his other off-speed pitches haven’t been as effective.

Surprising roster moves: Rangers manager Ron Washington has rostered three catchers, including with Matt Treanor, which will sacrifice an extra arm in the bullpen. No surprise that the Rangers decided to place Alexi Ogando in the bullpen, but the addition of Scott Feldman is interesting since he will probably factor in as the long relief option, allowing Ogando to see action in later, high-leverage innings.

As of this writing, the final roster for the Rays has yet to be released but the team was reported to be leaning toward 14 position players and 11 pitchers. With Niemann pushed into a long relief role, it figures that Wade Davis will be the odd man out in this series.

Keys to success: Like last season’s ALDS, this is a rematch between new-school and old-school ideologies. The decision to name an unproven rookie like Moore is one that only the Tampa Bay Rays would have made. I could not imagine any other team making that call.

On the other hand, Washington’s possible decision to go full time with Josh Hamilton in center field and David Murphy in left would seem short-sighted to a team like the Rays, since it negates the defensive value of a player like Craig Gentry, who should be used in center especially when the team is opposing a left-handed starter.

I'm having a hard time believing that Murphy will play left field full time, especially with his career wOBA of .286 in 511 plate appearances against left handed pitchers.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies





























Game One STL @ PHI Oct. 1, 2011
Game Two STL @ PHI Oct. 2, 2011
Game Three PHI @ STL Oct. 4, 2011
Game Four* PHI @ STL Oct. 5, 2011
Game Five* STL @ PHI Oct. 7, 2011

Pitching match-ups: The Phillies are hoping to take advantage of what has been considered the best rotation in baseball, with Roy Halladay named as the Game One starter. Cliff Lee will follow at home for Game Two, followed by Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt in St. Louis for Games Three and Four.

Finding a weakness in this rotation will require a lot of nit-picking. This unit is solid and should perform as expected.

Former fifth starter Vance Worley should find a place in what has been criticized as a very uneven bullpen. At the top, Ryan Madson has been excellent in the closer’s role while Antonio Bastardo and Brad Lidge provide excellent support. Michael Stutes can be a bit up and down but he has found his bearings in the final few days of the season. Not much to see after that.

With the Cardinals having needed to win their final few games, their rotation may look a little thin at the top with Kyle Lohse given the keys for Game One. Edwin Jackson, Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia round out the rest of the staff.

Lohse won’t miss a lot of bats and his season low .269 BABIP did help his overall numbers, but he did pitch very well in September, posting a 7.52 K/9 and 1.71 BB/9 with a 2.04 FIP in four starts. He started the season very well but ran into some struggles from June through August: 4.74 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.42 HR/9, 4.89 FIP in 81.2 innings. It is reasonable to wonder which version of Kyle Lohse we can expect come October.

Over the past few seasons, Jackson has shown the ability to handle opposing left-handed batters well. This could come in handy on Sunday.

Surprising roster moves: The Phillies are said to be mulling the idea of adding Joe Blanton to their active roster. Blanton has pitched only n seven innings during the final month, but manager Charlie Manuel will find a way to talk himself into including him among the 11 probable pitchers.

Keys to success: The health of Matt Holliday will be important for the Cardinals this week. When his hand injury occurred on Sept. 14, many figured Holliday would be shut down for the remainder of the season, but things changed over the past 48 hours. If he is still having trouble gripping a bat, it will be better to remain with Allen Craig, who has been tearing the cover off the ball in September (.327/.364/.692; .448 wOBA in 55 plate appearances).

On the Phillies side, the ability of their starters to control the game will dictate how far this team goes in the postseason.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers





























Game One Ari @ MIL Oct. 1, 2011
Game Two Ari @ MIL Oct. 2, 2011
Game Three MIL @ Ari Oct. 4, 2011
Game Four* MIL @ Ari Oct. 5, 2011
Game Five* Ari @ MIL Oct. 7, 2011

Pitching match-ups: The D-backs will open with Ian Kennedy as their Game One starter with Daniel Hudson taking the mound for Game Two. When the team returns home, it’s assumed that Joe Saunders and Josh Collmenter will be the starters for Games Three and Four.

Saunders and Collmenter gave up a high frequency of home runs in September, but both were able to survive off a low BABIP (.258 for Saunders; .253 for Collementer). That and a low walk rate—less than two per nine innings—helped keep the damage from escalating. This could be a problem as they get ready to face one of the better offensive teams in the National League.

The Brewers announced that Yovani Gallardo will be the Game One starter with Shaun Marcum, Zack Greinke and Randy Wolf following in that order.

Despite a 4.35 ERA in September, Gallardo was dominating during his final five starts, posting a 14.23 K/9 and 2.03 BB/9. Greinke also finished well, with 9.75 K/9 in his last six starts.

Surprising roster moves: The D-backs figure to roster 11 pitchers, with lefties Wade Miley and Zach Duke as possible long relief options. On the Brewers side, Marco Estrada should factor in on what has been an incredibly efficient bullpen down the stretch. However, nothing should qualify as too surprising unless the D-backs decide to activate Jarrod Parker via the 60-day DL loophole.

Keys to success: Despite their success in 2011, the D-backs have the distinction of leading the National League in swinging strike percentage at 10 percent (this is a statistic that is provided by Fangraphs that measures the percentage of pitches a batter swings and misses on). With the team facing two of the top K/9 performers this season in Gallardo and Grienke, things could get troublesome during key situations at the plate.

Defense and starting pitching were two of the main elements that made the D-backs contenders. Manager Kirk Gibson would be wise to keep this in mind when he assembles the final roster.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Vince Caramela 2011-09-30T09:56:15+00:00 Offensive players who were surprisingly terrible in 2011 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/offensive-players-who-were-surprisingly-terrible-in-2011/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/offensive-players-who-were-surprisingly-terrible-in-2011/#When:10:03:15
But what if age isn’t a factor? What if a successfully established player fails to perform to his expected levels at the age of 27 or 28? What if a player praised for his athleticism fails to effectively perform at the age of 29 or if a consistent middle-of-the-order thumper suddenly self-destructs at the age of 31? Of course, injury could be a culprit; perhaps a broken finger or strained shoulder has sapped his power?

The purpose of this exercise is to look at some offensive players who were surprisingly terrible in 2011. In the attempt to avoid an extensive list, some rules have been put in place.

First, all offensive players must have a minimum of 400 pate appearances by Sept. 14. Second, no players battling major injuries for a large portion of this season will be considered. This leaves players like Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer and Shin-Soo Choo free from analysis as well as Justin Morneau and Jason Bay. (Although Bay has insisted that last season’s concussion is behind him, I still have my doubts).

Third, these struggles had to be surprising. I know the Angels thought it was a good idea to pick up the remaining tab on Vernon Wells, but his struggles this season should surprise no one except for Angels owner Arte Moreno and, maybe, four or five people in his front office. That doesn’t count.

Finally, and most importantly, these players had to perform truly badly while expected to be a major part of their team’s offense. Players like Orlando Cabrera, Gordon Beckham, Alex Rios and Aaron Hill have been offensive drains, but none was expected to be an offensive centerpiece.

(Although Rios' and Beckham’s importance could be argued, I will make the stand that Rios’ struggles weren’t that surprising and Beckham’s return to his 2009 levels was a hopeful possibility—albeit an overall luxury—for the White Sox).


Adam Dunn
Age 31 (11 seasons)
Current 2011 line: .162/.292/.285 448 PA; .269 wOBA, 61 wRC+, -2.6 fWAR

We all knew Dunn eventually would decline, but we never knew the worst possible scenario would nestle together this rapidly.

Looking at early-season projections, Dunn was expected to reach 28-35 home runs, fueled by a consistent Isolated Power Score (ISO) somewhere in the mid to high 200s. Dunn is your classic young player with old-player skills—entering the major leagues at the age of 21 with a heightened awareness of on-base ability—who took big hacks with a boom-or-bust approach.

Dunn seemed to peak at the age of 24 and was successful for the next six seasons. Before the 2011 season, Dunn was signed to a four-year deal with the intention to be the cleanup hitter for the Chicago White Sox. So far, that’s not happening.

The overall loss of power is the most troubling. Going from a career ISO of .271 to a below-MLB-average of .122 is not something most healthy 31-year-old sluggers do. Looking at park factors, U.S. Cellular may be a bit more friendly to right-handed hitters (LF/123, LCF/120), but this isn’t CitiField, as the Cell is notorious for its close fences, and successful shots to right (RF/98, RCF 113) are fairly reasonable.

Looking at the data from HitTracker, one can see and expect a troubling decline in both speed off the bat and batted ball distance.













































Avg. True Distance Avg. Speed Avg. Standard Distance
2006 412.2 105.1 402.7
2007 410.6 104.9 406.5
2008 418.7 108 414.5
2009 411.9 104.8 405.7
2010 411.6 105.1 406.1
2011 401.9 103.5 392.9

Without a true measurement of bat speed available, it’s tough to truly make sense of the above data in comparison to previous seasons. This season Dunn is fouling off more pitches (30 percent compared to his 27 percent average) while also seeing a sharp rise in his infield fly ball percentage (IFFB) to 14.4 percent.

Another troubling trend is the amount of four-seam fastballs missing his bat based on PITCHf/x data provided by Joe Lefkowitz.

Four-seam fastballs from RHP






























Selection % Swing % Whiff % avg. velocity
2009 45.8 42.2 16.2 91.7
2010 32.6 44.7 19.8 91.6
2011 42.8 42.7 21.8 92.8


Four-seam fastballs from LHP






























Selection % Swing % Whiff % avg. velocity
2009 44.8 42.3 22.1 91.7
2010 45.7 45.3 35.9 91.6
2011 42.1 45.4 33.7 92.8

(note that average velocity is a combination of both RHP and LHP)

Understanding that there are flaws and classification issues with prior seasons using MLBAM, I decided to avoid listing the 2008 data, since I wasn’t sure how four-seamers were being calculated. Obviously, the information above could be flawed, but it does present some compelling questions to be further explored.

What does this mean for Dunn going forward?

Players in his age classification curve do see an even further drop in their age-32 season but a slight bounceback around the age of 33 before falling completely off the table. (For more info on the age charts I’m referring to, see Jeff Zimmerman’s graphs and explanations here).

Since Dunn peaked earlier than the average player in his class, maybe the scale can be moved up a bit, but I’m afraid this may only buy him some time in the mediocre scale, and his days as a dependable slugger may be over.


Jason Heyward
Age 21 (2 seasons)
Current 2011 line: .223/.317/.386 419 PA; .312 wOBA, 96 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR

This could be tricky for two reasons. First, he was slowed by a shoulder injury that he first received in spring training, only to re-aggravate it in May, costing him a good portion of that month and some weeks in June. Second, his age makes this difficult since we aren’t sure what to expect from his probable peak seasons despite already recording over 1,000 plate appearances.

The decision to let Heyward languish on the bench has upset a lot of analysts excited about his future development. Shoulder injuries have been known to sap a player’s power, but the .253 ISO he recorded during his first 113 plate appearances through April doesn’t occur when a player’s shoulder is hurt. The following months were cut short due to the injury. Upon his return, teammates questioned his durability as Jose Constanza and Matt Diaz threatened to push this future franchise player into the role of a fourth outfielder.

Looking at his struggles, it’s safe to assume that he may be pressing. His walk rate has decreased from 14.6 percent last season to 11.3 percent. His BABIP has also taken a tumble from .335 a year ago to .253 this season. A sharp reduction in his line drive rate to a low 13.4 percent and having the third-highest infield flyball percentage in baseball (min. 400 PA) at 22 percent can do that to the ol’ BABIP.

Another trend that could point to the “pressing” department is his reduction in pitches per plate appearance that went from a healthy 4.13 last season to 3.89 in 2011. Heyward has also been much more aggressive in terms of swinging at the first pitch. In 2010, this stat came in at 20 percent but has risen to 26 percent as he has also found the time in his day to swing at more pitches outside the strike zone, going from 24.2 percent last season to 28.5 percent so far this season.

If these issues can be corrected, Heyward still has the chance to develop into a special player, as his ability to work the count hasn’t diminished.
2011 Batter ahead: .302/.503/.526 163 PA; .309 BABIP
     Even count: .238/.242/.369 124 PA; .274 BABIP
     Pitcher ahead: .138/.156/.276 128 PA; .156 BABIP
Compared to the previous season:
2010 Batter ahead: .366/.573/.613 279 PA; .399 BABIP
     Even count: .227/.243/.390 177 PA; .252 BABIP
     Pitcher ahead: .228/.251/.346 167 PA; .355 BABIP
As we can see, further developing this aspect of his game will be important to his success.


Jayson Werth
Age 32 (7 seasons)
Current 2011 line: .234/.336/.397 602 PA; .328 wOBA, 105 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR

More was expected from Werth this season despite many analysts questioning the logic of the Nationals signing a 32-year-old player to a seven-year contract. Defense is the only thing keeping his WAR value at a respectable level. Unfortunately, he wasn’t paid to occasionally amaze his fans with the glove.

After four solid seasons of OPS+ growth (2007: 120, 2008: 121, 2009: 129, 2010: 143) as well as positive ISO trends, it’s easy to blame his troubles on the less friendly confines of National Park.

Of course, his previous home in Philadelphia was more conducive to a hitter of his skill set. Never one to merely pull the ball, Werth took advantage of the shorter power alleys as a member of the Phillies (Citizens Bank Park: LCF 121, RCF 124) and the numbers show this isn’t too easy in DC (National Park: LCF 88, RCF 108). Looking over Werth’s numbers, his ISO has taken a hit at .162, and his OPS+ is a pedestrian 101, but this may not tell us the whole story.

Werth has shown significant improvement since the month of August, posting a line of .274/.361/.463 in 108 PA as well as a .368 wOBA and 132 wRC+. Looking at the data provided by HitTracker, no regression or red flags can be found in terms of his batted ball distance, as we can see below:







































Avg. True Distance Avg. Speed Avg. Standard Distance
2007 403.5 107.4 404.4
2008 404.8 103.3 402.2
2009 396.7 103.2 393.9
2010 396.6 103.3 394.6
2011 403.8 104.2 402.9

One of the major trouble areas for Werth this season has been his production against left-handed pitching. As a right-handed batter, Werth has been successful against LHP with a career line of .278/.383/.524 1011 PA; .387 wOBA, 136 wRC+.

Now match that to this season’s line against lefties: .173/.307/.337 127 PA; .286 wOBA, 76 wRC+, .211 BABIP. I’m willing to bet this is an outlier that should fix itself next season.


Carl Crawford
Age 29 (10 seasons)
Current 2011 line: .253/.289/.402 487 PA, .304 wOBA, 85 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR

Crawford has always been a free swinger; however, he has shown some positive trends in his walk rate and developing power. These trends have been conservative, going from a low 3.9 percent walk rate in 2005 to a 6.9 percent rate last season. Over his career, Crawford has averaged about 3.54 pitches per plate appearance, which is short of the MLB average of 3.77.

This approach has made opposing pitchers avoid the strike zone a bit more than usual, since he has a higher frequency of chasing pitches. So far this season, Crawford has swung at pitches outside the zone at a rate of 37.9 percent, which is well above the MLB average of 30.5 percent. In previous seasons, he has maintained a high rate in this department, with a rate of five to six percent higher than the average.

Last season saw a rise in Crawford’s strikeout rate, going from 12.4 percent in 2008 and 14.7 percent in 2009 to 15.7 percent in 2010. This can be alarming, but his usual high BABIP (.331 career rate in Tampa Bay) and increasing ISO rate, going from .126 to .147 to .188 in that same span, was enough to put a heavy shine on his numbers. This season the K rate has continued to rise to an all-time high of 19.7 percent, but his BABIP and ISO scores have reversed.

In a nutshell, what seems to be ailing Crawford this season?

He did get off to a horrible start, posting a .196 wOBA, 11 wRC+ during the first month of the 2011 season. Crawford did miss some time due to a thigh strain that put him on the shelf during the middle of June until early July. During the first half of the season, Crawford’s walk rate was incredibly small at 3.2 percent.

Throughout his career, Crawford’s distribution of facing opposing pitchers during various counts has slightly leaned toward the pitcher being ahead:
Batter ahead: 1,624 career plate appearances (.363/.488/.578; .370 BABIP)
Even count: 2,244 career plate appearances (.305/.306/..472; .320 BABIP)
Pitcher ahead: 2,001 career plate appearances (.233/.238/.315; .306 BABIP)
Most elite hitters are able to work the count into their favor and see more situations where they are ahead in the count. This season, Crawford has more plate appearances where the pitcher is ahead, and the 2011 results can be seen below:
Batter ahead: .282/.405/.495 127 PA; .329 BABIP
Even count: .287/.286/.489 175 PA; .282 BABIP
Pitcher ahead: .195/.202/.253 179 PA; .283 BABIP
Crawford never had a season where he recorded more plate appearances that ended with him ahead in the count. At this stage, it shouldn’t be expected for him to suddenly develop. It’s a shame since one could only imagine how much better he would be if he was able to work the count to his advantage.


Ichiro Suzuki
Age 37 (11 seasons)
Current 2011 line: .274/.311/.337 660 PA; .291 wOBA, 84 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR

I resisted putting Ichiro in this class since his age is such an obvious red flag. How much longer were we expecting a player entering his late-30s to still effectively leg out infield hits? The answer is, we were expecting some discernible regression from Ichiro, but we never expected it to emerge this dramatically.

BABIP seems to be an important element to his offensive game. His walk and strikeout rates have remained relatively consistent, with a slight bump or drop here and there. His ISO has always been small, but it comes in waves, topping off around the 110s one season and then settling into the low 75s next season.

But Ichiro's BABIP could always be counted on being high around the .350 mark. This season it has fallen to .296, and his rapid decline and fears about how he will finish his final season in Seattle next year are open to speculation.

Ichiro did start off the season well and has been threatening to get his BABIP back up to his usual levels. His contact rates have been similar to previous seasons, but without any way to measure the nature or the “strength” of this contact, we’ll just have to ponder his lower batting average and wonder what went wrong.

Click here to learn about THT's download subscriptions.]]> Vince Caramela 2011-09-15T10:03:15+00:00