THT Fantasy Focus

Chase Utley out 4-6 months: fantasy fallout

Chris Neault — 2008-11-21T14:44:00-05:00

Fantasy baseball managers everywhere were likely found gasping for breath today when news broke that Chase Utley is going to undergo surgery on his right hip. This will probably be the biggest question heading into the 2009 fantasy baseball drafting season. This is a similar situation to last season, when many were debating where to select Albert Pujols due to questions about his elbow. The difference in this case is that we know that Utley will be having surgery, so the questions are when he will return, and how effective he will be going forward.

Injury in review

It had been known throughout the midway part of the season that he was dealing with some hip pain, but it had apparently worsened in the waning months of the year. When exactly the hip pain began is not certain, but there has been word that he had irritated the joint during offseason workouts.

His decline in slugging percentage in the last three months of the season was notable (SLG% of .443, .477 and .443 in July, August, and September, respectively), though his monthly batting average splits actually held steady (.278, .294, .284). His .220 postseason batting average was a glaring downturn, however, despite smacking three home runs and totaling nine RBI. His .292 season average, though excellent, was significantly lower than the .332 average of 2007 and .309 in 2006. Whether this slide was due to his hip pain is anyone’s guess.

The issue with Utley’s hip is with the integrity of the acetabular labrum, which is a rim of cartilage that lines the outer aspect of the hip joint. It is often torn when the hip is repetitively forced into flexion (knee towards chest motion) and rotation—especially during weight bearing activities where the head of the femur (ball) approximates against the acetabulum (socket). When the cartilage tears, it either needs to be excised (removed) or repaired, depending on the size and location of the tear.

Clouding the situation is that it is not known if any additional damage is present to the bone or ligament structure of the hip joint. The more structures involved, the more sensitive the joint will be postoperatively, and the slower the progress will have to be, so as to not irritate the tissue during rehab. Bone trimming is a commonly-performed aspect of a hip labrum surgery because it increases the chances of a successful outcome. If a simple debridement of the labrum is needed, the recovery time would also be shorter than if a repair is performed. Keep in mind that Mike Lowell has a similar problem with the hip labrum, but he is only expected to miss two to three months, which means that the doctors probably know that his situation is worse than Lowell’s. The surgery is set for some time next week, so we should know more then.

Second base has historically been a fairly thin position in fantasy—though it has been a deeper position in recent years—but owners are probably wondering what this means for the 2009 season.

Where do I draft him?

For keeper league owners, this hip surgery is a huge point of interest. If you had/have the luxury of keeping Utley, there is no way you can leave him off your roster due to this...right? You have one of two options in keeper leagues:

1. Keep him, stash him, and draft a stopgap for the interim.
2. Release him, and hope that you can get him at a discounted price.

If it were my team, I would simply keep him. If you have budget issues, or really don’t want to gamble with an average second baseman, you might consider No. 2.

In yearly re-draft leagues, the immediate question is: Where do I select Utley? This is a very difficult question, mainly because of the cloudy prognosis for recovery. Depending on the damage within the joint, he could be out for as little as four months, or as long as six—we just don’t know yet. What we do know is that Utley apparently has an excellent pain threshold, and that he is young and extremely well-conditioned. His work ethic is well-known to be outstanding, so we have no need to worry about him slacking in his rehabilitation.

If he is out for only four or five months, that would put his return sometime in the end of March or April. With a four-month return, I would still draft him in the late first round or sometime in the second round—even despite any lingering questions about his health. A five-month return might force you to wait until the late second round or early third round.

If he has a more serious procedure, or if there are setbacks in his recovery, the six-month time frame would push his return into late-May or early June. In this scenario, you would be forced to bypass Utley in the first three rounds altogether, unless you are the gambling type (depending on who is being selected), or unless you have a very deep bench/DL roster and are comfortable with drafting an additional second baseman later in the draft.

If he is out until June, nobody would chastise you for bypassing Utley altogether and targeting a player like Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Brian Roberts or Dan Uggla. Another point to remember is that many second basemen seem likely to slip far in drafts this year – Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips and Yunel Escobar come to mind.

Not that this is any guarantee of his return date, but Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. expects Utley to be back on time, or close to it: “Our feeling is that he’s going to be fairly close to ready, if not be ready, by Opening Day.”

What to expect production-wise

If no setbacks or major issues arise in the rehab process, I would expect Utley to return fully and without gross limitations. It is not uncommon for patients who undergo this type of surgery to have residual discomfort in the anterior (front) of the hip or groin region. Soreness is a common occurrence, and is usually alleviated by rehabilitative modalities, range of motion activities, manual therapy, and exercise.

Most of his limitations would likely be apparent with his defense and/or base running—if at all. In particular, getting into a low crouch to field a ground ball combined with pivoting to throw would be an activity that could create discomfort. Turning and exploding out of a lead from first base may also be difficult in the presence of an uncomfortable hip, so his stolen base totals could suffer early in the year. His ability to pull his hits to right field for power may initially be hindered, as he gets acclimated to rotating rapidly and forcefully over his front hip.

Once again, I am banking on a fairly quick recovery from Utley, so my projections are based on what I am anticipating. I would also figure the Phillies would give him some extra days off over the course of the season in any event:

Projections: 138 games, 514 AB, .292/.374/.520, 23 HR, 96 RBI, 9 SB

Order the Hardball Times Annual 2009 today!]]>

Consistency meter: Nick Markakis

Paul Singman — 2008-11-21T05:06:01-05:00

Markakis rounding the bases after a home run. Can we expect more of this in '09? (Icon/SMI)

In the first edition of Consistency Meter I looked at consistent producer Aramis Ramirez last week and concluded that he might undergo a regression in 2009 after five consecutive seasons of high production. That conclusion was unforeseen by most everybody (including me), showing that you can never be sure of any player regardless of how consistent he has been in the past.

In that vein, we will examine another "consistent producer" today. This time it will be... Nick Markakis.

Background

+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+
| YEAR | AGE | TEAM    | AB  | AVG   | HR | RBI | R   |	SB |
+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+
| 2006 |  22 | Orioles | 491 | 0.291 | 16 |  62 |  72 |  2 |
| 2007 |  23 | Orioles | 637 | 0.300 | 23 | 112 |  97 |	18 |
| 2008 |  24 | Orioles | 595 | 0.306 | 20 |  87 | 106 |	10 |
+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+

Markakis will be 25 at the start of the 2009 season, so there is no reason to believe he will fall off because of his age. If anything, you would boost his stats slightly as he nears his prime years with more major league experience. Markakis has also never experienced a major injury.

Looking at his surface stats for the last three years, you see that from his rookie season in 2006 to 2008 he has basically put up the same numbers. His averages over those years: .299 batting average, 20 home runs, 87 RBI, 92 runs and 10 stolen bases

Markakis can hit for average, his bat has decent pop, and he can wreck some havoc on the base paths. Let's see if we can expect him to increase his production in any of those areas. We will start with the pop.

Power skills

+------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+
| YEAR | AGE | TEAM    | AB  | HR | tHR | HR/FB | tHR_FB | nHR/FB | RAW | OF/FB% |
+------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+
| 2006 |  22 | Orioles | 491 | 16 |  11 |    14 |     10 |     11 | 3.6 |     27 |
| 2007 |  23 | Orioles | 637 | 23 |  18 |    12 |     10 |     10 | 0.5 |     35 |
| 2008 |  24 | Orioles | 595 | 20 |  20 |    13 |     13 |     13 | 0.7 |     31 |
+------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+

+----------+-------+------+-----+--------+-----+-----+--------+-----+
| LAST     | FIRST | YEAR | AB  | OF/FB% | FL% | LD% | IF/FB% | GB% |
+----------+-------+------+-----+--------+-----+-----+--------+-----+
| Markakis | Nick  | 2006 | 491 |     25 |   5 |  16 |      2 |  51 |
| Markakis | Nick  | 2007 | 637 |     29 |  10 |  14 |      2 |  45 |
| Markakis | Nick  | 2008 | 595 |     24 |  16 |  12 |      2 |  46 |
+----------+-------+------+-----+--------+-----+-----+--------+-----+

Looking at the breakdown of his batted ball types further, we see he is not going in the slugger direction. He is still primarily a groundball hitter with a high percentage of "fliners." (A fliner is a mix of a fly ball and line drive, the kind of ball that either falls in the gap for a single or double or goes right to the outfielder and you say the hitter got robbed.) League average fliner rate is 11 percent, so Markakis has become above average in that department. As a result, he is now below average in outfield fly ball percentage (OF/FB%).

So while all of these fliners are good for his batting average, they do not ~~do much~~ do anything for his home run numbers. It would take a conscious effort on Markakis' part to hit more fly balls to get his home run numbers up. The result of hitting more fly balls would a be a decreased batting average, so every approach has its drawbacks.

The bottom line is that unless Markakis can increase his home run per fly ball percentage (HR/FB), he is never going to become a 30 home run hitter. The possibility of that happening remains open, though, because he has still not reached his prime power years. Looking at his Raw Power (RAW) and True HR/FB percentage (tHR/FB) in the first table, we see a slight increase in both, which is promising. If those stats continue to climb in 2009 and in subsequent years as I expect them to—albeit not by much—Markakis can potentially hit about 25 home runs in 2009 and possibly more in years beyond.

Contact skills

+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+
| YEAR | AGE | TEAM    | AB  | BA    | tBA   | CT% | BABIP | mBABIP | LD% | BIP/HR | BIP/tHR |
+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+
| 2006 |  22 | Orioles | 491 | 0.291 | 0.287 |  85 | 0.315 |  0.322 |  20 |     26 |      38 |
| 2007 |  23 | Orioles | 637 | 0.300 | 0.288 |  82 | 0.335 |  0.330 |  18 |     23 |      29 |
| 2008 |  24 | Orioles | 595 | 0.306 | 0.290 |  81 | 0.351 |  0.330 |  21 |     24 |      24 |
+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------

Markakis' True Batting Averages (tBA) have been fairly close to his actual batting average and very consistent on a year-to-year basis. The .10 disparity between the two—tBA and actual BA—can be attributed to the slight difference in his Marcels BABIP (mBABIP) and his actual BABIP. Not much going on there. Maybe Markakis' batting average will come down a few points in 2009. No big deal.

Speed skills

+------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------------+
| YEAR | AGE | TEAM    | AB  | SB | SBA | SBO%  | SBA% | SB%  | FAN_SPEED | FAN_BALLOTS |
+------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------------+
| 2006 |  22 | Orioles | 491 |  2 |   2 | 0.264 |    1 |  100 |        70 |          25 |
| 2007 |  23 | Orioles | 637 | 18 |  24 | 0.258 |   13 |   75 |        68 |          57 |
| 2008 |  24 | Orioles | 595 | 10 |  17 | 0.297 |    8 |   59 |        69 |          72 |
+------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------------+

Markakis has never ran wild on the base paths, but has put up double-digit steals the past two seasons. He has been ranked about the same by the fans who voted for Tangotiger's Fan Scout Report, but in reality has had varied success stealing. In 2007 Markakis stole bases at a somewhat disappointing 75 percent clip. Then in 2008 he was successful on only 59 percent of his attempts. That is atrocious!

Rightfully so, Markakis attempted to steal at a lesser rate last year than in 2007, probably when manager Dave Trembley saw he was getting thrown out at about the same rate he was stealing successfully. Markakis did get into more stealing opportunities in 2008, mostly because of his increased walk rate (8.7 percent in 2007, 14.3 percent in 2008) which kept his steals total in double digits, barely.

Markakis is still young and reasonably fast (assumed from his great fielding numbers), so I am expecting him to be more successful at stealing bases in 2009. I am concerned, though, that he will be seeing the green light less. A total of about 10 steals again seems right; anything from 10 to 13 would not surprise me. Just don't think Markakis is good at stealing because, surprisingly, he is not.

Final thoughts

To sum things up, I expect much of the same from Markakis in 2009. Perhaps a couple more home runs are on the way, but I do not expect any sweeping changes to occur. The stats I predict are a .292 batting average with 24 home runs and 11 stolen bases. Draft accordingly!

Order the Hardball Times Annual 2009 today!]]>

Before the beginning, think of the ending

Jonathan Halket — 2008-11-20T05:04:00-05:00

In my previous article, I wrote about choosing fantasy league rules that increase the happiness (broadly defined) of the players in your league. In particular, I warned against using rules that were drawn from Major League Baseball rules without first thinking about the effects that they would have on your league’s competitiveness. This week, I want to pick up on this theme and discuss a particular problem that many leagues have: How to keep the last half of the season interesting.

To make things easy, let’s take a simple 12-team rotisserie league, where the winner takes all. By August, there will likely be several teams that do not have a realistic shot at winning, perhaps due to a key injury or a poor trade. Football season is starting, so some of the cellar-dwellers may stop updating their roster, leaving injured or inactive players on their active roster, and so on. Steadily, the inactive teams become less and less competitive. So while a team that starts the All-Star break in last-place in your league is probably still competitive in a few scoring categories, an inactive team will likely be at the bottom of most categories by the end of August.

What are the effects of inactive teams on the rest of the league? Inactive teams generally drop out of competition faster in the counting stats (like home runs) than in the average stats (like WHIP), since injured players don’t get strikeouts (for instance) but have a neutral effect on WHIP. Competitive teams with mediocre counting stats are rewarded, since they will move up in the standing. It is like you’re competing against 12 teams in the batting average category, but only eight in home runs. It can also make it a lot harder for teams to move up in the standings, as the last place teams are unlikely to overtake a top team in any particular category.

What rules can a commissioner use to try to prevent this fall in league attention? The key, of course, is to give something for the lower tier teams to compete for, that is, give them a reason to want to be in, say 10th place instead of 11th (and so on). For instance, keeper rules, which let teams keep some players for next season, may give a team a reason to remain active, searching for undervalued talent. But the best rules will be the ones that encourage competition without distorting other aspects of the league.

A much simpler incentive scheme than keepers is to make the reward system contingent on the place of finish. For example, instead of having a 10-team league where each manager puts in $10 and the winner gets $100, imagine each team putting in $55. Then let the first place price still be $100, but give the second place $90, third $80, and so on. The idea is to spread the difference in prizes enough so that no team will want to drop out.

Alas, this also means that each manager could lose a lot more money (4.5 times more in the example above). Many leagues may not want to have so much money (if there is any to begin with) at stake. Fortunately, there are other ways to incentivize.

A common rule in multi-year draft leagues is to set the draft order in reverse order of finish from the previous year. Last year’s stinker team gets this year’s number one draft pick. Most professional leagues (NFL, MLB, NBA, etc.) have a version of this for their draft.

Using this rule is a terrible idea for most fantasy leagues. The fewer keepers your league allows, the worse the reverse draft order rule is. It is a good example of sacrificing fantasy competitiveness for the sake of verisimilitude. If it was hard to incentivize the lower tier teams to compete before, with a reverse draft order in place, you’d actually be encouraging teams to tank! Indeed, two years ago, I was in a league where I was one of the tankers-in-chief. In a league with no keepers, all teams start the next season with a blank slate and on completely even footing, so there's no reason to give the worst team from the previous year the first pick the following year—except perhaps out of pity.

I would encourage most draft leagues to get rid of the reverse draft order. Your league could revert to the same scheme that you probably used in the league's first year, determining the draft order by random lottery.

But why not use draft order to reward competitive teams? This past year, one of my leagues decided to adopt a more complicated NBA-style lottery to determine draft order. Instead of giving the teams that finished at the bottom the highest probabilities of getting the top draft picks, we gave the higher probabilities to the teams that finished near the top. Of course, you don't need something this elaborate; for instance, just make draft order follow the order of last year's finish rather than the reverse order.

Order the Hardball Times Annual 2009 today!]]>

Fantasy fallout: Ryan Dempster re-ups with Cubs

Derek Carty — 2008-11-19T04:01:00-05:00

Ryan Dempster took a big step forward in 2008, but can he sustain that level of performance in 2009? (Icon/SMI)

The first big free-agent signing of the off-season occurred yesterday as Ryan Dempster re-upped with the Chicago Cubs for 4 years and $52 million. Dempster moved to the rotation in 2008 after spending four years as a reliever and was tremendous with a 2.96 ERA. Here was his full fantasy line:

+------+------+-------+----+------+------+-----+----+
| YEAR | TEAM | IP    | W  | ERA  | WHIP | K   | SV |
+------+------+-------+----+------+------+-----+----+
| 2008 | Cubs | 206.7 | 17 | 2.96 | 1.21 | 187 |  0 |
+------+------+-------+----+------+------+-----+----+

Let's look a little deeper to see what we should expect in 2009.

Numbers

If you're new to THT Fantasy Focus and are unfamiliar with LIPS ERA, K/BB RI, or any of the other stats I'm using, check out our quick reference guide. These stats provide a much clearer picture of a player's talent, so it's well worth taking a couple of minutes to learn them.

+------+-----+----+----+-------+------+----------+-----------+------+------+---------+------+
| YEAR | AGE | G  | GS | IP    | ERA  | LIPS ERA | DIPS WHIP | K/9  | BB/9 | K/BB RI | xGB% |
+------+-----+----+----+-------+------+----------+-----------+------+------+---------+------+
| 2004 |  26 | 23 |  0 |  20.7 | 3.92 |     3.98 |      1.50 | 7.84 | 5.66 |   -0.13 |   53 |
| 2005 |  27 | 63 |  6 |  92.0 | 3.13 |     3.46 |      1.43 | 8.71 | 4.79 |    0.22 |   58 |
| 2006 |  28 | 74 |  0 |  75.0 | 4.80 |     4.40 |      1.48 | 8.04 | 4.32 |    0.18 |   50 |
| 2007 |  29 | 66 |  0 |  66.7 | 4.73 |     4.19 |      1.38 | 7.43 | 4.05 |    0.06 |   48 |
| 2008 |  30 | 33 | 33 | 206.7 | 2.96 |     3.87 |      1.28 | 8.14 | 3.31 |    0.35 |   49 |
+------+-----+----+----+-------+------+----------+-----------+------+------+---------+------+

While Dempster's 2.96 ERA was somewhat lucky, his 3.87 LIPS ERA shows that he did have a legitimately good season. A .288 BABIP, 77 percent LOB%, and a 7.7 percent HR/FB all helped his actual ERA to be nearly a full point lower than it would have been with neutral luck, but his strikeout, walk, and ground ball numbers were all very solid.

While this is a great sign for 2009, we need to be very careful not to get too enamored by Dempster's 2008 season and ignore the previous years, which were generally worse and came in relief innings. In fact, there are quite a few things that could give us pause in projecting an equally good season for Dempster next year.

The fact is, 2008 was one of the best year's of Dempster's career. His strikeout rate was higher than it's been in every year except 2000 and 2005 (when he was in the bullpen), and his walk rate was the lowest of his career. Where did that come from...and at the age of 30?

Looking at Dempster's PITCHf/x data, he doesn't seem to have improved any of his pitches. His fastball was still good, his change-up was still very good, and his slider was still kind of crappy. He did use the slider less frequently than in year's past, which likely helped to some degree, but there was very little overall change in Dempster's physical skills. Perhaps we'll do a more in-depth look at some of the mental pitching skills sometime in the near future.

There was a discussion at The Book Blog yesterday about the possibility of Joakim Soria moving to the rotation which can be applied to Dempster's move this past year. Quoting Tom Tango, "the rule of thumb is to add 1 run to convert to a starter (not a hard and fast rule)." While this isn't an absolute measure (as Tango noted), let's take a look at what Dempster's 2004-2007 LIPS ERA would look like if we applied this rule:

+------+-----+----------+
| YEAR | AGE | LIPS ERA |
+------+-----+----------+
| 2004 |  26 |     4.98 |
| 2005 |  27 |     4.46 |
| 2006 |  28 |     5.40 |
| 2007 |  29 |     5.19 |
| 2008 |  30 |     3.87 |
+------+-----+----------+

I also included his actual 2008 LIPS ERA (no adjustment needed since he spent the season as a starter) for easy comparisons. Here, we see that Dempster far exceeded what we would have expected for him at the start of the season. He jumped a full 1.32 points of ERA from 2007 to 2008 and 1.53 points from 2006. Those are huge numbers, and it makes me wonder — at the very least — how repeatable his 2008 line will be.

Finally, I'd like to take a look at some of the cool new plate discipline stats up over at FanGraphs.

+------+-----+------+------+-----------+----------+-------+
| YEAR | AGE | K/9  | BB/9 | F-Strike% | O-Swing% | Zone% |
+------+-----+------+------+-----------+----------+-------+
| 2005 |  27 | 8.71 | 4.79 |      55.1 |     22.4 |  47.2 |
| 2006 |  28 | 8.04 | 4.32 |      59.4 |     22.7 |  50.7 |
| 2007 |  29 | 7.43 | 4.05 |      57.8 |     31.7 |  46.9 |
| 2008 |  30 | 8.14 | 3.31 |      57.8 |     28.5 |  49.4 |
+------+-----+------+------+-----------+----------+-------+

Eric Seidman recently posted an article with correlations for these stats. Here are the results we're interested in:

+------+-----------+----------+
| Stat | F-Strike% | O-Swing% |
+------+-----------+----------+
| K/9  |      0.19 |     0.28 |
| BB/9 |     -0.72 |    -0.49 |
+------+-----------+----------+

Essentially, F-Strike% (which is how often the pitcher gets a first-pitch strike on the batter) predicts walk rate very well and strikeout rate decently. O-Swing% (which is how often the pitcher induces swings on pitches outside the strike zone) predicts walk rate pretty well and strikeout rate moderately well.

If we look back up at Dempster's stats, though, we see that his F-Strike% didn't move at all from 2007 to 2008 and is right in line with his four year average. His O-Swing% actually decreased from 2007 to 2008 (though it was still better than 2005 and 2006). So while Dempster's K/9 and BB/9 both got better this year, these stats really don't support such drastic improvements.

I also included Zone% (which is simply how often the ball is thrown in the zone), which I assume correlates relatively well with walk rate since you can't walk a batter if you never throw outside the zone. This did improve from 2007, but it was worse than 2006 when Dempster posted a BB/9 a full-point higher (albeit with a lower O-Swing%).

Concluding thoughts

Overall, we have to give Dempster credit for what he did in 2008, but we must also use this information in conjunction with what he's done in the past and with what some of the underlying indicators suggest.

I would be much more comfortable putting Dempster down from something like a 7.8 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. This, in conjunction with a 50 percent ground ball rate, would still allow Dempster to post an ERA in the low 4.00s. Just make sure you aren't fooled by that 2.96 ERA or even the 3.87 LIPS ERA, because the odds seem to be against a repeat of either.

Order the Hardball Times Annual 2009 today!]]>

Season review: starting pitchers

Paul Singman — 2008-11-18T05:01:00-05:00

It's November and every hitting position already has been recapped. Don't think I forgot about the men on the mound; their turn is right now. Let's start with that chart, slightly modified:

En masse

+------+-----+------+------+--------+
| Year | SPs | ERA  | FIP  | WPA/LI |
+------+-----+------+------+--------+
| 2004 |  91 | 4.24 | 4.30 |  0.574 |
| 2005 |  99 | 4.04 | 4.12 |  0.469 |
| 2006 |  88 | 4.34 | 4.35 |  0.582 |
| 2007 |  89 | 4.17 | 4.30 |  0.722 |
| 2008 |  97 | 4.08 | 4.18 |  0.531 |
+------+-----+------+------+--------+

In a majority of the hitters' charts, 2006 was a great offensive year, with 2007 and 2008 below it in terms of production. That trend is reflected in the pitchers' stats, whichever one you focus upon. The one major outlier is under WPA/LI, which is WPA with the Leverage aspect removed, in 2008 when a .200 point reduction in the stat occurred. Remember that a lower ERA and FIP is better while inversely a higher WPA/LI is better. Both ERA and FIP agree that pitchers have gotten better over the last couple of years; why WPA/LI disagrees I would like to know.

I'd like to find someone out there who thinks starting pitchers have gotten worse over the last few years, because the position is as deep as it has ever been. The number of pitchers in 2008 who threw at least 150 innings, had an ERA at or below (the arbitrary) 3.75, and compiled at least 150 strikeouts was 24. The same number in 2007 is 21, and just 12 in 2006. Whether you consider that manipulating the data or not, if you looked for yourself it would be tough to argue that the starting pitcher position has gotten shallower over the past three years.

To me, that means I will take pitchers late in drafts. I know that there so many philosophies on when to select pitchers in drafts or how much money to allocate for them in auctions. Whatever I suggest with be agreed upon by some people and disagreed upon by many others. Therefore, I am not going to go into as much detail as I did in the other reviews on my general drafting strategy when it comes to pitchers. What I will say is that I never draft elite pitchers. Players you will never find on my team after a draft: Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, or any other pitcher typically taken in the first five rounds. I laugh when someone takes a pitcher in the first round, but again, that is just my opinion. Let's move onto those risers and fallers.

Individuals

The Risers

Some pitchers who were "risers" in 2008 have been talked about ad nauseum already. I'll create a little list of those pitchers and then talk more in-depth about more less-noted pitchers:
{exp:list_maker}Cliff Lee
Justin Duchscherer
Ryan Dempster
Ervin Santana {/exp:list_maker}
Ricky Nolasco came out of nowhere to post a 3.58 ERA in 2008. The 26-year-old certainly gets his share of strikeouts, at 7.88 per nine, but most impressive was Nolasco's control. His BB/9 was 1.78, good for 10th in the majors! I took a quick glance at his minor league walk rates and while they were good, they were never that good, and pitchers' walk rates usually do not go down as they move up in the minors. Nolasco had a great season, but I question whether he will be able to replicate his success.

With more walks than strikeouts, Fausto needs to spend more time looking at the strike zone than his glove. (Icon/SMI)

Edison Volquez had the tough job of dueling it out with Josh Hamilton, with whom he was swapped for in the offseason, and Volquez at least made it competitive with a 3.21 ERA and more than 200 strikeouts.

It is important to note that Volquez perhaps became fatigued as the season wore on; there is a dramatic difference between his first and second half splits. His first half ERA was 2.29 and his second half ERA was more than two points higher at 4.60. I'm not such a strong believer in second half splits, but for a young pitcher under Dusty Baker who saw a significant workload increase—as Volquez did—it is something to keep your eye on.

The Fallers

One-year wonder Fausto Carmona was terribly awful in 2008. Not much of a strikeout pitcher even in 2007, Carmona survived by keeping his walk totals down and inducing ground balls. In 2008, the screws completely came off. His already low strikeout rate dropped to 4.33 per nine innings and his BB/9 rate rose to 5.22(!), meaning he gave up more walks than he got strikeouts. Simply inexcusable.

Josh Beckett had a somewhat disappointing season: His ERA rose from 3.27 to 4.03 in 2008. An article by Peter Bendix at Fangraphs a couple of days ago shows how literally nothing changed between Beckett's 2007 and 2008 peripheral stats. Expect his ERA to hang out closer to 3.27 than 4.03 in 2009.

After three years of a 3.70-3.80 ERA, Aaron Harang's ERA shot up a full point to 4.78 this past season. What stands out is the full loss of a point in K/9, the half-point gain in BB/9, and the increasing number of fly balls he is allowing. I don't think an ERA under 4.00 can be expected from Harang anymore, but I also do not agree with those who think Harang's ERA with be close to 5.00 next year either. Low to mid 4.00s sounds about right to me.

Javier Vazquez had teased fantasy owners for several years from 2004 to 2006, posting great K/BB ratios, and yet he could never get his ERA below that 4.00 mark. In 2007, Vazquez finally accomplished that feat (something he did regularly earlier in the century when in 2007 his ERA dropped to 3.74). But then he went back to disappointing again in 2008: His ERA jumped back up to 4.67. Give me a crystal ball and I might tell you what Vazquez's ERA will be in 2009, but even that would be risky.

Hypothetical situation: a 25-year-old second overall pick who has compiled a 3.74 ERA through his first 399 career innings pitched. This pitcher sounds excellent, right? Right. The player I am referring to is Justin Verlander, selected ninth among starting pitchers in this year's drafts. Verlander outplayed his xFIP in both 2006 and 2007, but in 2008 it caught up to him and his ERA rose to 4.84. As is a common theme among pitchers on this list, Verlander saw his K/9 level fall and his BB/9 level rise significantly. I have reserved emotions about 2009.

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Nick Swisher: Overrated?

Victor Wang — 2008-11-17T05:06:00-05:00

For this article I was originally planning to write about value picks for next year. One of the guys I was planning to include was Nick Swisher. However, some recent discussion has caused me to question whether Nick Swisher will be undervalued for next year. Typically a guy with Swisher's past season would be a great value target for the following year. I'm not sure if this applies to Swisher, though.

None of Swisher's skills were out of line of what we would expect him to produce. However, he had a very low BABIP of .249 for the year. Usually when a player puts up a BABIP that low there is some bad luck involved. In the past, most people would look at that .219 batting average and avoid Swisher in their fantasy drafts. That would allow some more savvy owners to pick a guy like him up for cheap and get solid production.

It seems to me, though, that this is not the case with Swisher. It seems like most people understand that Swisher likely had some bad luck last year and has a pretty good chance of bouncing back this season. In fact, it appears that some people think that since Swisher had some really bad luck this year he's due for some really good luck next year. However, that is a topic for some other time. People appear to better understand concepts like regression to the mean and looking at more than just a player's last season. So what does this mean for the future of projections?

I feel like the situation with Swisher is proof that we are at a point of diminishing returns when it comes to projecting offensive rate stats. There is only so much more improvement left in that area for projection systems. Not only that but people are better understanding the concepts that go into these projection systems. However, variance projection is an area where improvement would be very beneficial for fantasy owners. While projections like the one linked above and for PECOTA give a range of outcomes, these ranges have not been empirically tested. Therefore, I have to question their reliability.

So what if the fantasy market is becoming more efficient and guys like Swisher can no longer be considered as sleeper targets? Where can we find some good value picks? One class of players would obviously be guys who take the next step and show a change in their true talent. For example, this would typically be a younger player who has a lot of talent but hasn't put everything together like Delmon Young.

A second class of players could be those that you're gambling will stay healthy despite past injury problems. These would be players who have shown a track record of past success but may have had recent injury problems.. For example, this past year Milton Bradley and Justin Duchscherer would be examples of this. For next year, someone like Gary Sheffield or Brad Penny could be a potential target.

In conclusion, players with good skill sets but bad luck may no longer be undervalued like they would in the past. There are two main types of players where I see potential for looking at for sleeper picks. The first type is the kind every writer likes to project in spring training. These are the breakout players, the usually young guys ready to take the next step. The other kind are players with a past history of high playing time variation, typically due to injury. So while you may not be able to count on a guy like Nick Swisher as a sleeper pick this year, there are other places you can look. However, these players are ones that projection systems may struggle with, requiring you the owner to make some more subjective judgments.

Order the Hardball Times Annual 2009 today!]]>

Breakout party: James Loney

Derek Carty — 2008-11-17T04:44:00-05:00

James Loney celebrates with his team after Game 3 of the NLDS. Will drafting him improve your fantasy team's prospects for a 2009 championship?(Icon/SMI)

Over the past few weeks, I've discussed some players who I believe over performed in 2008. In my next few articles, I'd like to discuss some who I believe underperformed in 2008 and who should be undervalued going into 2009.

Today, we'll talk about Dodgers first baseman James Loney. Check out his fantasy line from this past year:

+------+-----+-----+-------+----+-----+----+----+
| YEAR | AGE | AB  | BA    | HR | RBI | R  | SB |
+------+-----+-----+-------+----+-----+----+----+
| 2008 |  23 | 595 | 0.289 | 13 |  90 | 66 |  7 |
+------+-----+-----+-------+----+-----+----+----+

This is a solid line, but he doesn't really seem to excel in any one category, and as a first baseman, is rather unspectacular. Let's check out some more advanced stats to see how things could change next year, though.

Power

+------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+
| YEAR | AGE | TEAM    | AB  | HR | tHR | HR/FB | tHR/FB | nHR/FB | RAW | OF FB% |
+------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+
| 2006 |  21 | Dodgers | 102 |  4 |   3 |    12 |      9 |      9 | 0.0 |     36 |
| 2007 |  22 | Dodgers | 344 | 15 |   9 |    16 |     10 |      9 | 1.1 |     32 |
| 2008 |  23 | Dodgers | 595 | 13 |  22 |     8 |     14 |     14 | 0.0 |     31 |
+------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+

If you're new to THT Fantasy Focus and are unfamiliar with True Home Runs (tHR) or any of the other stats I'm using, check out our quick reference guide. These stats provide a much clearer picture of a player's talent, so it's well worth taking a couple of minutes to learn them.

Many people considered Loney's power this year a disappointment. In just 344 at-bats in 2007, he pounded 15 long balls, making him a popular speculative pick this year. In 250 additional at-bats, though, Loney hit two fewer home runs. I suspect a lot of fantasy owners, in re-evaluating this post-hype Loney, will see this drop-off, see that he didn't show much power in the minors, and conclude that Loney is simply a 12-15 home run player.

This might not be the case, though. While Loney only hit 13 home runs in 2008, True Home Runs thought he should have hit 22. That's quite a difference, and a very favorable sign for 2009.

We do need to take note that his tHR/FB was just 10 percent in 2007, and the jump to 14 percent in 2008 is based on a one-year sample size. While Loney didn't post big power numbers in the minors, he was generally young for each level he was at (i.e. 21 and 22 years old at Triple-A). So while we need to temper expectations a little bit, it is certainly possible that Loney did experience a legitimate breakout in 2008 (which went unnoticed due to some bad luck), and at age 24 it will simply continue this pace.

This is the scenario fantasy owners should hope for, and one that would likely make Loney significantly undervalued in 2009.

There is one more reason to take pause, though. Loney doesn't hit a lot of fly balls to begin with, and if we split up his batted ball stats to include fliners (which are balls that are borderline flyballs/line drives), we see that he took a step backward in 2008:

+------+-----+---------+-----+--------+-----+-----+--------+-----+
| YEAR | AGE | TEAM    | AB  | OF FB% | FL% | LD% | IF FB% | GB% |
+------+-----+---------+-----+--------+-----+-----+--------+-----+
| 2006 |  21 | Dodgers | 102 |     30 |   9 |   9 |      3 |  49 |
| 2007 |  22 | Dodgers | 344 |     27 |  11 |  15 |      5 |  42 |
| 2008 |  23 | Dodgers | 595 |     21 |  19 |  13 |      3 |  44 |
+------+-----+---------+-----+--------+-----+-----+--------+-----+

Without including fliners, his outfield fly rate was steady from 2007 to 2008 (32 and 31 percent, respectively). When we refine our stats, though, we see that many of those 2008 flies were actually fliners, meaning they were closer to being line drives than true fly balls. Since fliners only go for homers at rate of 5 percent (and outfield flies at 12 percent), you can see why this change could hurt his power if it continues.

This could be the result of slight change in his swing (either intentional or unintentional), or it could just be random fluctuation. Overall, though, the power downside for Loney is essentially his 2008 numbers. He probably won't hit fewer than 11 or 12 homers, but his upside is 25 home runs, which very well could be worth chasing. We'll make a final determination on that at the end of the article.

Contact

+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+
| YEAR | AGE | TEAM    | AB  | BA    | tBA   | CT% | BABIP | mBABIP | LD% | BIP/HR | BIP/tHR |
+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+
| 2006 |  21 | Dodgers | 102 | 0.284 | 0.299 |  90 | 0.284 |  0.312 |  12 |     23 |      31 |
| 2007 |  22 | Dodgers | 344 | 0.331 | 0.303 |  86 | 0.352 |  0.339 |  22 |     20 |      33 |
| 2008 |  23 | Dodgers | 595 | 0.289 | 0.307 |  86 | 0.320 |  0.323 |  22 |     39 |      23 |
+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+

Loney had a tremendous rookie year in 2007 with a .331 batting average. This was largely driven by an inflated home run rate and an excellent (though not that lucky) BABIP. True Batting Average saw him as a .303 hitter, and this improved to .307 in 2008. There was a drop in his mBABIP, but the favorable True Home Run numbers (which we discussed above) helped push his tBA up.

When dealing with young players, it's also important to look at their minor league BABIP track record since Marcels (and therefore mBABIP) doesn't take minor leagues into account. In 2006, Loney's Triple-A BABIP was a ridiculous .404 in 366 at-bats. If we convert this to an MLE, though, it falls to a more reasonable .341. In 2007, his MLE BABIP was .294 in 233 at-bats (here, we should note that his contact rate and power were out of line with what he had done previous and what he's done since, so it's possible he wasn't himself, either due to injury or some other reason).

So while there may be some upside for Loney as he matures as a hitter, his Marcels BABIP seems to have him about right. If you want to ignore his 2007 minor league BABIP and include his 2006 one, you might get away with bumping his 2008 mBABIP up to .330, which would cause his tBA to rise to .313. Plus, as he approaches his prime, that BABIP only figures to rise.

It's unclear how other owners will view Loney's contact skills, but we should look upon them favorably. He probably won't bat .331 this year, but he should easily be able to eclipse .300, well-above his 2008 figure.

Speed

+------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+------+
| YEAR | AGE | TEAM    | AB  | SB | SBA | SBO%  | SBA% | SB% |
+------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+------+
| 2006 |  21 | Dodgers | 102 |  1 |   1 | 0.198 |    5 |  100 |
| 2007 |  22 | Dodgers | 344 |  0 |   1 | 0.269 |    1 |    0 |
| 2008 |  23 | Dodgers | 595 |  7 |  11 | 0.246 |    7 |   64 |
+------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+------+

Loney didn't do much running at the major league level until this year. He managed to steal seven bases, but he didn't do it very efficiently, succeeding on just 64 percent of his attempts. Luckily for Loney, though, manager Joe Torre likes to let his players run, often finding his teams in the top 5 for stolen base attempts. He's let his team attempt 160 or more steals three years in a row and has averaged 155 attempts since 1994. Because of this, Loney could very well steal five to 10 bases again this year, even if he's thrown out just as often as he succeeds.

Loney's minor league history looks very much like his 2008 campaign in terms of steals (single digit successes mixed with quite a few failed attempts), so as long as Torre gives the okay, I'd imagine Loney would be comfortable attempting 10-15 steals. The only word of warning comes from his 2007 season: manager Grady Little attempted a lot of steals that year (187) and during his career, but Loney only attempted one.

Market value

The usual disclaimer still applies here: we're looking at a small-ish sample and some year-end data that may not actually be measuring exactly what we're looking for. Once more rankings start coming out we'll have more to look at. For now, here's what Loney's value is shaping up as:

CBS Sportsline Expert Draft No. 1: 14th 1B (121st Overall/R11)
CBS Sportsline Mock Draft No. 1: 15th 1B (125th Overall/R11)
Mock Draft No. 1: 16th 1B (116th Overall/R10)
CBS Sportsline: 16th No. B (134th Overall)
ProTrade Value: 19th 1B (82nd Hitter)
Yahoo! Big Board: Not Listed - Outside Top 11 1B (Top 107 Overall)

The general impression of Loney seems to be a .300+ hitter with 12-15 home run power and the ability to steal a few bases. As a first baseman, this isn't super-valuable, and means most people will use him as a corner infielder. No one above saw Loney as a top 12 first baseman, sometimes even taking guys like Chris Davis and Conor Jackson ahead of him.

Concluding thoughts

While I'd prefer to get him in round 12 or 13, if an 11th-round pick is needed, Loney still deserves serious consideration. He should hit at least .300—most likely higher—and may well be turning into a legitimate power threat. The sample size we're looking at is somewhat small, but the numbers we have are favorable and he's at a good age for progression. Batting fourth or fifth should allow him to drive in 100 runs if the power spike turns out to be for real, and 75 or 80 runs would come along with it (this number could rise if he starts walking more).

Worst case scenario is a line like .290-12-80-60-0 (ignoring the possibility of injury). Best case is a line like .310-25-110-80-10. Even if Loney hits the worst case scenario, you're really not losing much value with an 11th round pick. If he approaches the best case line, though, he is a steal. If you're looking to take risks, or at least looking to mix some high-upside guys into your draft plan, Loney would be a nice choice.

Order the Hardball Times Annual 2009 today!]]>

THT fantasy mailbag

THT Fantasy Mailbag — 2008-11-14T05:06:00-05:00

Welcome to the THT fantasy mailbag. This is our first shot at this, so we hope you enjoy this feature and find it useful. If you'd like your question to be answered in the next mailbag, please send it to THTFantasyMailbag@gmail.com.

A couple of notes: (1) It is helpful for our authors to know your league setup (number of teams, roster spots, any other important specifics), so if you'd like to raise the chances of getting your question answered and receiving a good answer at that, please include that information in your e-mail. (2) Though we'll consider any question, we prefer general questions that might be useful to our other readers. Those questions are also more likely to get answered, though again, we encourage any question you would like to ask.

And now, on to the mailbag!

For a keeper league, are any of these guys worth a gamble?:

Jason Jennings
Morgan Ensberg
Matt Murton
Jorge Sosa
Jason Hirsh
Brad Hennessey.

Thanks!

Alan

Alan,

It depends on the type of league we're dealing with and how the keeper system works. In a mixed league (unless it is very deep), I would have to say that none deserve consideration. Even in an "only" league, Sosa, Hirsh and Hennessey are simply too poor to consider keeping, so they are out of the question for any kind of mixed league. For the other guys it would depend on the individual circumstances. If you absolutely had to keep one guy, Murton would likely be my choice. He's got solid potential but is far from a sure thing. In a deep mixed league, again depending on the exact situation, he might deserve consideration.

- Derek Carty

What do you think of Chris Davis going forward? In particular how do you see his BA playing out next year given that we have a half season of MLB experience and data to add to his minor league stuff. Hit me with some sabermetrics. I looked up his stats on him on your site, which is cool, but I don't really know how to interpret yet.

Background:

I have him in a freezer league (10 team 4X4 AL only, freeze six guys per team). I can freeze him for free this year and decide next year if I want a long-term contract. I'm in love with his power potential, but I'm afraid he's going to hit .250 because of his contact rate. I think he's a no-brainer compared to some of my other bottom end freezer options (Damon, Aviles, Shields). I figure there's a decent chance he's the best of that group next year, but with added potential value of a long-term big-time power guy (which we're short on with Ellsbury/Upton/Rivera/Granderson as other freezers). I don't think I can pass on him. I'm really not big on SP, so though I love Shields I'd be unlikely to freeze him over any of my other bats.

Also: What do you think for N. Cruz and Aviles next year? They're both guys we could freeze, but expect we can probably get them back in the draft.

Thanks,
Mark

Mark,

Everything you said about Davis is true. He has fantastic power potential but has definite batting average risk. I see no reason why Davis can’t keep putting up big power numbers. However, he has a few indicators that would suggest there is batting average downside. Davis struggles to make contact. which is one of the most important indicators for batting average.

Also, Davis had a 25.5 percent line drive rate and .351 BABIP. It will be quite difficult for him to keep these numbers up and thus his batting average will likely regress next year. With that being said, Davis should be considered as a keeper. As you said, the group of players you are considering keeping doesn’t have great power numbers. If you decide to keep Davis,, you could also go after a high batting average like Placido Polanco to balance out the batting average risk with Davis. What you also need to consider is that Davis will most likely be eligible for third base next year.

In the end, though, it depends on your risk preference. Are you willing to accept the batting average risk and limited sample size that Davis brings? Or would you rather face the risks that Shields brings as a pitcher?

Finally, I would say no for sure for Aviles. Aviles probably isn’t going to perform as well as he did last year. When it comes to Cruz, everyone is going to be looking for the next Ryan Ludwick next year and Cruz could be a popular target. However, we need to remember that the chances of picking a specific player to break out like Ludwick are very low. If you feel that you can get a good return for Cruz in a trade, it might be worth considering keeping him. Otherwise I would rate Cruz a distant third behind Shields and Davis.

- Victor Wang

How horrible is Mark Reynolds? Will he every stop the strikeouts?

Cory

Cory, to be concise, most likely no, he will not strike out less next season. And for this reason alone, his fantasy value will remain low because of the .239 batting average he puts up. You can play around with any of the more advanced plate discipline statistics mentioned in this article. But all of them say the same thing: He is too aggressive a swinger for someone who makes contact as little as he does.

The one thing he could do to lessen the amount of strikeouts he gets without actually increasing his contact skills is to swing much less. So instead of his current 47 percent swing percentage, he could drop to the Jack Cust level of 38 percent. I still, however, see no reason why he will stop striking out next season at the rate he does, except that perhaps he does not want to set the strikeout record again.

- Paul Singman

What do you hear about Bobby Abreu going to the Cubs? What round would you project him at?

John

John,

I have not heard/read any rumors regarding Abreu and his potential homes for next season, at least nothing solid. I believe he has filed for free agency, and according to Rotowire, its not clear if the Yankees will try very hard to re-sign him. That being said, I'm not convinced the Cubs really have a need for a 35-year-old, defensively challenged right fielder. (I believe John Dewan's +/- system ranked Abreu as the second worst right fielder in 2008), as two larger concerns are finding an adequate center fielder and filling in the hole in the rotation, since Ryan Dempster also has filed for free agency.

If the Cubs do sign Abreu, I think it would be safe to say that they are trying to win now, since their lineup won't be getting any younger with this addition. But again, I haven't heard anything that's worth betting on...

As far as fantasy goes, I don't think Abreu's value will drop considerably just because he is out of New York. I'm not the biggest believer in lineup protection, so I'm not too concerned about his performance from that aspect. He is awfully consistent, and pretty durable (150-plus games each season since 1998), so unless he moves to a place like PETCO or Dodger Stadium, I'd expect the consistency to continue.

I can't answer ihat round I would take him in, since that depends on the format of the league, but generally speaking, I would rank him slightly below guys like Nick Markakis and Alex Rios.

- Marco Fujimoto

It's early, but I'm thinking about optimal parameters for my league's setup next year.

C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, UTIL
P (x9)
Bench (x2)
DL (x2)

Members: 10
Scoring: Roto
Categories: HR, RBI, NetSB, OBP, SLG | K, W, IP, ERA, WHIP
GS max: 162

I am in leagues this season that do not differentiate between OFs, so I am unsure if Yahoo! or ESPN has accurate positional designations, and how difficult it is to play one player in each slot. It seemed as though a good portion of my free agent pickups this past season were outfielders, but I'm not sure whether that was just natural variance or whether the fact that there was no difference between OF slots just made me feel as though there were more of those pickups. (It didn't help that the league I was most active in had five starting OF slots).

I am aiming to give hitters and pitchers roughly equal value, so I have nine starters of each, as well as three counting stats and two rate stats for each. I enjoyed the generic pitcher slot much more this season than strict starting and relief slots. The tight bench aims to prevent an overabundance of swapping pitchers out for spot starts, as does the max games-started limit. The tight bench also makes the league a bit more difficult overall.

The stats I've chosen give a much more realistic sense of value to players' statistics; I think 10 categories is a good number as opposed to eight. I have thus included RBI and wins—while not the best indicator of player value, they do have some relevance and are counting stats (I got burned using too many rate stats in the league I formed this year). Net steals also give a much more realistic sense of how a player is helping his team.

Any thoughts on the parameters of this league would be appreciated.

John

(This question was of quite a bit of interest to our authors, so we're publishing two responses.)

John, interesting that you bring up league settings. They often go overlooked and can make for a much better league so long as you make reasonable variations of traditional 5X5 scoring. I especially like the net steals category which, as you said, better shows how a player's steals helped or hurt his team. Dustin Pedroia (20 steals, 19 net) rightfully becomes worth about the same as Chone Figgins (34 steals, 21 net).

Without a runs category, I am concerned that leadoff guys might become a bit undervalued, as they do not get as many RBI. I know you want to keep the same number of rate stats for both hitters and pitchers, but I would consider changing OBP and SLG simply to OPS---a combination of both--- and then making Runs the fifth hitting category. I don't think there is necessarily a correct answer here, but I would consider the change.

I like having innings pitched as a category since it makes having a roster of elite set-up men to win WHIP and ERA much less valuable, but I see then saves were left out. As unimportant a stat saves are, I find they are one of the more fun fantasy categories to compete in. Without saves, I can also see the RP market getting annoyingly saturated. If you willing to go 6X6, my suggestion is to keep OBP and SLG as you have it, and then to add runs and saves as sixth categories. If you decide to scrap innings pitched as a category, make sure you set a high minimum innings pitched limit as well.

- Paul Singman

The challenge in structuring fantasy baseball (and, for that matter, and group competition) is in ensuring that as many players as possible can enjoy the experience. And for most of these players, enjoying the experience involves some sense that they could, on any given day, beat any other team.

In every league, there are casual players and there are folks like us, who live, breathe and sleep fantasy baseball. We look at stats and we're already coming up with our draft board even though the 2008 season has been over for maybe 11 days. If the folks who put the most time and nerdly effort into it were the ones who won the league every year, it would quickly cease being fun for the more casual players.

I'm convinced that this is why fantasy leagues run by Yahoo and other websites have put in a number of measures to help ensure parity in the leagues. The biggest of these is the head-to-head structure, in which results are laughably luck-induced. A second factor is the presence of some pretty good preseason rankings. Yahoo's "O-rank" in particular, is frustratingly similar to my preseason draft board each year. Assuming my projections are good, this mutes my advantage in player valuation over other managers—they can spend 10 seconds looking at O-rank to make their choice, and be on just about equal footing to me, who spent 10 hours combing various projections.

And that's my main point about your league. For better or worse, you've substituted categories like runs and batting average, which are subject to a lot of season-to-season variation in each player, for OBP and SLG, which are much more stable. Whereas a savvy fantasy baseball player will be able to identify "lucky" and "unlucky" seasons that a player has in batting average and adjust his valuation of that player accordingly, OBP and SLG tend to have less variation from year to year. The top 10 last year will be pretty similar to the top 10 this year. You can't really say that about BA.

So in short, I like your league settings because I think they come closer to measuring the true value of a player. On the other hand, my one piece of advice is that the categories you've chosen probably will help some of the otherwise weaker managers perform pretty well. Which is great for parity and for having them want to play again next season... but not as good for helping your chances of winning the league and securing bragging rights!

- Michael Lerra

If you would like your question answered in the THT Fantasy Focus mailbag, write to THTFantasyMailbag@gmail.com.

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Fantasy fallout: Closers on the move

Derek Carty — 2008-11-14T05:05:01-05:00

There has been quite a bit of movement in the closer market over the past few days, so let's take a look at the ramifications of these moves.

To recap:

Salomon Torres announced his retirement. Torres saved 28 games for the Brewers last season, and with a $3.75 million team option, most assumed the Brewers would bring him back and he could begin 2009 as the closer.
It seems that Trevor Hoffman and the Padres have cut their ties. Early in the offseason, most assumed Hoffman would either re-sign with the team he's been with for 15 years or retire. Now, it looks as though he'll be signing elsewhere.
The Florida Marlins traded Kevin Gregg to the Chicago Cubs for pitching prospect Jose Ceda. A Gregg trade was expected, but now we know where he's going and how it affects those involved.

Let's check out how these moves affect your fantasy plans.

Fallout: Brewers

With Torres gone, the Brewers could go after a free agent closer or trade for one. Doug Melvin, however, recently had this to say: "We're not going to spend a big chunk of money on a closer. We've found closers in the past. You usually don't find that out until later (in the offseason)."

However, the other guys who were in the mix in 2008 (Eric Gagne, Guillermo Mota and Brian Shouse) are all free agents, leaving us to wonder who will close in 2009. There was a good article at Brew Crew Ball highlighting the candidates.

The three front-runners seem to be David Riske, Seth McClung and Carlos Villanueva. These were the three guys Melvin mentioned: "We're going to have to retool the bullpen a little bit. We have Riske back, McClung back, unless he goes into a starting role, and then Villanueva. We do have some holes to fill, but we had holes last year to fill, too." The Gazette also said that "Melvin mentioned hard-throwing right-hander Seth McClung as an internal option to try as closer."

Let's take a quick look at these three candidates:

None are awe-inspiring, but Villanueva is clearly best (though McClung took a big step forward this year after pitching just 12 innings in 2007 and then coming over from the Rays last offseason). Riske took a nose-dive this year, though his leverage index (1.30) topped Villanueva's (1.18) and McClung's (0.61). Riske wouldn't last long in the role, although Villaneuva probably could survive if given the opportunity.

I'll go on the record as saying my choice would be a guy we haven't mentioned yet: Mark DiFelice (9.0 K/9, 1.1 BB/9 in 189 Double- and Triple-A innings). Todd Coffey would be another option. He's never been great at the major league level, but he has been great in the minors over the past couple of years and induces a lot of ground balls. Joe Bateman also has a very good minor league record and makes for a solid darkhorse candidate.

Another option for the Brewers would be to sign a low-priced free agent, a la Gagne last off-season. Given how many potential closers seem to be available this offseason, it wouldn't be a surprise to see someone like Hoffman or Brandon Lyon forced to settle for a cheap contract. The Brewers haven't had problems going with risky or unproven closers in the past, so unless a situation like this occurs, one of the in-house options we discussed figure to begin the year in the role.

Fallout: Padres

Following Hoffman's departure, the Padres have two real options: acquire a new closer or give the job to Heath Bell. Since money seems to be very tight for the Padres, since Bell is an excellent reliever, and since the Padres surely know this, giving the job to Bell seems the most likely scenario. Adding another quality reliever (and assuming him as a closer) could help the bullpen as a whole and shouldn't be ruled out, but it's unlikely the Padres could acquire someone better than Bell for the pennies they're willing to spend.

Let's check out Bell's numbers:

+------+-----+----+------+------+----------+------+-----------+------+------+---------+------+
| YEAR | AGE | G  | IP   | ERA  | LIPS ERA | WHIP | DIPS WHIP | K/9  | BB/9 | K/BB RI | xGB% |
+------+-----+----+------+------+----------+------+-----------+------+------+---------+------+
| 2004 |  26 | 17 | 24.3 | 3.33 |     2.33 | 1.15 |      1.03 | 9.99 | 2.22 |    1.14 |   45 |
| 2005 |  27 | 42 | 46.7 | 5.59 |     3.23 | 1.48 |      1.29 | 8.29 | 2.51 |    0.59 |   48 |
| 2006 |  28 | 22 | 37.0 | 5.11 |     3.83 | 1.68 |      1.35 | 8.51 | 2.68 |    0.64 |   56 |
| 2007 |  29 | 81 | 93.7 | 2.02 |     3.04 | 0.96 |      1.09 | 9.80 | 2.88 |    0.93 |   58 |
| 2008 |  30 | 74 | 78.0 | 3.58 |     3.81 | 1.21 |      1.24 | 8.19 | 3.23 |    0.38 |   46 |
+------+-----+----+------+------+----------+------+-----------+------+------+---------+------+

He had a bit of a down year in 2008, but he has a very good record and would still be plenty good enough to close games even if he puts up the exact same numbers as in 2008. He is 30 years old now (blame a poorly run New York Mets organization for not giving him an opportunity sooner), so big improvements shouldn't be in order, but Bell looks like a great keeper and an excellent sleeper for 2009.

Fallout: Cubs

Following the acquistion of Gregg, the Cubs announced that they wouldn't be re-signing Kerry Wood. That leaves the closer's role vacant, with Gregg and Carlos Marmol as the two options to fill it. Most of the early reports are saying that the Cubs want Marmol to close with Gregg joining guys like Jeff Samardzija, Angel Guzman and Neal Cotts in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings.

Marmol is vastly superior anyway and is the correct choice. Gregg was solid enough in 2007, but he wasn't nearly closer material in 2008 and should work in a seventh- or eighth-inning role for the Cubs. This trade destroys his value. He could have closed if he had stuck with the Marlins, or he could have closed if he were traded to another team (like the Mets, who might have just dodged a bullet)

Let's quickly check out Marmol's numbers:

+------+-----+----+------+------+----------+-------+------+---------+------+-------+------+
| YEAR | AGE | G  | IP   | ERA  | LIPS ERA | K/9   | BB/9 | K/BB RI | xGB% | BABIP | LOB% |
+------+-----+----+------+------+----------+-------+------+---------+------+-------+------+
| 2006 |  23 | 19 | 77.0 | 6.08 |     5.63 | 6.90  | 6.90 |   -0.64 |   28 | 0.270 |   70 |
| 2007 |  24 | 59 | 69.3 | 1.43 |     3.22 | 12.46 | 4.54 |    1.29 |   30 | 0.264 |   91 |
| 2008 |  25 | 82 | 87.3 | 2.68 |     3.18 | 11.75 | 4.23 |    1.10 |   31 | 0.174 |   78 |
+------+-----+----+------+------+----------+-------+------+---------+------+-------+------+

He was awful in 2006 (mostly as a starter), but has been excellent over the past two seasons after converting full-time to a reliever. His strikeout numbers are enormous (big enough to compensate for his below-average control and extreme fly ball tendencies) and he's entering his prime, so Marmol looks like an excellent fantasy selection next year. Also, while we're still looking at small samples, his BABIP and LOB percentage have been excellent over the past two seasons. If those turn out to be repeatable, he should easily be able to beat his LIPS ERAs (which are still very good in and of themselves).

He's received lots of hype in the past, so it'll be interesting to see where he gets drafted now that the closer's role seems to be his.

Fallout: Marlins

This one is pretty straightforward. A Gregg trade was expected, and seeing as how the team let Matt Lindstrom close in his absence last year (and even let him continue closing once Gregg returned from the disabled list), he is the obvious favorite heading into 2009. While his ERA was almost identical to 2007, his skills experienced a big-time regression. Take a look:

+------+-----+----+------+------+------+------+---------+------+-------+------+-------+
| YEAR | AGE | G  | IP   | ERA  | K/9  | BB/9 | K/BB RI | xGB% | BABIP | LOB% | HR/FB |
+------+-----+----+------+------+------+------+---------+------+-------+------+-------+
| 2007 |  27 | 71 | 67.0 | 3.09 | 8.33 | 2.96 |    0.52 |   46 | 0.333 |   73 |   2.9 |
| 2008 |  28 | 66 | 57.3 | 3.14 | 6.75 | 4.08 |   -0.17 |   49 | 0.335 |   76 |   2.0 |
+------+-----+----+------+------+------+------+---------+------+-------+------+-------+

Lindstrom had a great rookie campaign in 2007, but he took a big step backward in 2008. The strikeout rate went down and the walk rate went up, resulting in his K/BB Run Impact falling into negative territory. The low HR/FB rates are nice to see, but at just 124.1 innings, it's far too early to call it a repeatable skill.

He's the guy to own at the start of the year, and he receives a big value boost from this trade, but unless changes are made, he won't be able to keep the job all year. If the Marlins realize this, they could sign a cheap veteran (think maybe Rafael Soriano or Jason Isringhausen) to compete with him or as a backup plan.

Jose Ceda goes (the return for Gregg), is a guy scouts really like and who has posted big strikeout numbers but whose control has been lacking. Marlins GM Larry Beinfest said that "Jose is a big, strong kid with a real live arm. We think he can help us in the back end of our bullpen in the very near future, if not right away." If Lindstrom struggles and Ceda makes strides with his control, he's a guy to keep an eye on in the second half of 2009.

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Chris Carpenter: injury outlook

Chris Neault — 2008-11-14T05:04:00-05:00

To say that Chris Carpenter’s career since 2003 has been a whirlwind of heartbreak would be a mammoth understatement.

In 2003, he had right shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum, then missed the 2004 World Series against the Red Sox due to nerve irritation arising from compression in his right biceps muscle.

The next couple of seasons were considerably more positive. He won the NL Cy Young Award in 2005 with a 21-5 record and 213 strikeouts in 241-plus innings. But his workload in 2005, followed by another heavy-volume season in 2006 (22-plus IP), was likely a major factor in the physical problems he has faced since.

He lasted only one game into the 2007 season before succumbing to right elbow pain and subsequent Tommy John surgery. Attempting to return in 2008 about 12 months after his operation (at the early end of the normal 12-15 month return time frame), Carpenter again lasted only a short period (three games, 14 IP) before a triceps strain (later found to be a teres major strain) shelved him for the balance of the season.

The offseason brought news of nerve compression in his shoulder, primarily to the musculocutaneous nerve. Could this be the same problem that causes him to miss the Series in 2004? It sure sounds similar—especially since this nerve serves the biceps muscle, the very same muscle that apparently caused his nerve irritation in 2004.

As a result of his symptoms, surgery was being considered as an option to release the nerve from its compression. But after Carpenter received four opinions from various specialists, it was decided that he would not have the surgery because there was no guarantee that it would alleviate his symptoms. In addition, the specialists felt that the risks were too great.

It was then determined that Carpenter needed ulnar nerve transposition surgery, which is performed at the medial elbow, and is often done during a Tommy John surgery. The surgery was performed on Nov. 4, by Dr. George Paletta. The team said Carpenter’s elbow surgery was not expected to “interfere with or prolong” his current shoulder therapy and rehabilitation.

I look back to earlier in the 2007 season, when there was concern that he had ulnar nerve irritation, and wonder if there was anything that could have been done then to address this situation. Obviously, you never want to rush into an invasive surgical procedure, but if there is smoke there is usually fire. Extinguish the fire if it is present.

Outlook for 2009 and beyond

Carpenter is among the highest of injury risks in fantasy drafts for 2009 and for the years beyond. The biggest concern is that he has dealt with numerous pitching arm/shoulder injuries over the past five seasons. In addition to having a labrum repair, he has suffered nerve irritation (from many locations) as well as muscle strains that are likely in part due to secondary muscle weakness from the nerve involvement, as well as time spent sidelined.

Once nerve tissue is inflamed or scarred, it is highly reactive to becoming aggravated once again. Since it is likely that there are some areas of nerve compression in his shoulder, I find it hard to imagine that Carpenter will be able to make it through any meaningful volume of outings in 2009. I will not be drafting him in any mixed league, but NL-only managers might want to gamble on him as an end-of-the-rotation type starting pitcher.

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