THT Fantasy and Buy on the Rumor

Waiver Wire Offseason: AL

Rob McQuown — 2009-11-20T08:00:15+00:00

Rajai Davis | Oakland | OF
2009 Final Stats: .305/.360/.423

With a batting average and on-base percentage about the equal of Carl Crawford last year, and a slugging percentage close enough to call “close” after park adjustments, Davis had a 108 OPS+ with 41 SB in just 432 PA, a very Crawford-esque two-thirds of a season all told (Crawford has a career 103 OPS+). Yet the Oakland righty was probably taken as a late-round source of steals and nothing more in 2009. What can be expected from the surprising 29-year-old-to-be? Here are some projections from various sources:

Heater/Graphical Player: 455 AB, .274-69-5-44-42 (AVG-R-HR-RBI-SB)
Bill James Handbook: 496 AB, .284-74-4-44-50
CHONE (baseballprojection.com): 341 AB, .267-48-4-30-31
Career 162-G average (baseball-reference.com): 393 AB, .280-62-3-37-45

The career line is highly warped by the fact that he was used as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement for much of his career before breaking through with a starting job in 2009.

So, the first obvious question is: “How much will he play?” With Ryan Sweeney's fielding stats belying his reputation as a just a mediocre center fielder, the A's appear to have another in-house option to roam center field, though Rajai roams a bit more of it, and certainly looks like more of a center fielder. And though the sample size is still wanting, Scott Hairston's conversion to the outfield seems to have resulted in about average defensive skills in CF. Cunningham was a center fielder in the minors but appears to be limited to side-field duty now. All this suggests that if the A's want to try to force some of their slow DH/1B types (Barton, Wallace, Carter, Doolittle, Buck, etc.) into the lineup in 2010, they may reprise the Cust-to-outfield experiment, and Rajai could end up on another team or on the wrong end of a platoon with lefty Ryan Sweeney (though the A's have been reluctant to use straight platoons in recent years). Our mindset is that Rajai gets his regular gig in CF back (he started playing almost every day about midway through the season), as Oakland has quietly turned into a pitching, speed and defense team. And you can count on Beane heating up the trade lines shopping him around, too—both Chicago teams might have a use for him, for example. In short, anything under 450 AB would be somewhat surprising, but that “surprise” would be predicated on …

“How will he do?” Almost certainly, the CHONE system balanced out his PT based on his expected offensive contributions. They have the lowest predicted OBP at .326, but nobody seems to think he'll exceed .340 OBP again since his .366 BABIP stemmed from an unlikely .305 batting average. Still, the difference between CHONE and the other predictors is fairly minute—14 points of OBP over 500 PA is just seven times on base all season. And his career average stands at a decent .280, so predicting a decline to .267 seems overly pessimistic. One thing nobody disagrees about is his game-impacting speed, which will lend itself to pinch-running opportunities even if he's not playing regularly—as it has in seasons past. For raw speed, the “extra bases taken%” (from baseball-reference.com) probably is the most indicative as he's posted 60% for his career against an MLB average of 39%. His 78% career SB% sounds decent, with 93 SB in 358 SBO, but he's also been picked off 16 times (10 in 2009 alone), so actual straight steals aren't necessarily adding as many wins as would be assumed for a guy with one steal per 10 PA. All this combines to suggest that somewhat of a downtick in his stealing attempts could happen in 2010, but he still seems a great bet to log 40-50 SB, given 500 PA.

Wrapping it all up, we have a batter who clearly had a career year in 2009, isn't terribly efficient in his copious stealing attempts (due to the pickoffs), might get traded away, and yet is still a contributor of the coveted stolen bases needed for fantasy success. There are several risks with Rajai—and some outcomes which could cause his value to crater—but the chances of him finishing at or around 450 AB, a .275 AVG and 45 SB are pretty good. It seems very likely that he'll be valued much less than that on auction/draft day in most leagues. Not a great pick for a team that is already good and is conservatively trying to protect an advantage, but the “performance over price” possibility is large.

Aaron Hill | Toronto | 2B
2009 Final Stats: .286/.330/.499

When he was first starting out with Toronto, there were many who likened Hill's approach at the plate to former Blue Jay (and WAY former second baseman) Paul Molitor. Well, in 2007, he started showing some signs of Molitorism, hitting .291/.333/.459. “Molly” would obviously have been chagrined at the lack of patience, but for a guy whose career slugging percentage was .409 entering 2009, the power was a somewhat unanticipated turn in the right direction offensively. But 2008 was a lost season for Hill, with the struggles and the concussion, and then finally being shut down. But worries about his career going the way of Corey Koskie or Ryan Church were assuaged early, as Hill started 2009 with hits in nine straight games, including three multi-hit games and two homers. And he was extremely consistent all season long, driving in 108 runs (tied for fifth in AL) with 36 HR (T-3rd). This sort of production from a Gold Glove-caliber second baseman made him one of the league's best players in 2009.

Since the three “early” projection systems are almost entirely based on mathematical results derived from past statistical patterns, it's unsurprising that all think Hill's power rampage in 2009 was mostly a fluke. CHONE, BJHB, and Heater/GP project his homers at—respectively—21, 20, 22. And all three predict a .282-.283 batting average. Well, we're here to tell you those are not to be believed!

Playing time:

Certainly, the concussive symptoms could return, but this is a guy who played 155, 160, and 158 games in the three years surrounding his concussion-impacted 2008. So, CHONE and BJHB predicting lots of missed time seems off base. The GP projection is based on the Toronto expert for the book, and is a more-reasonable 643 AB. Hill's the type of player who doesn't come out of the lineup easily, and with his combination of offense and defense, no manager is going to be in a hurry to give him an off day, though giving him “rest” when the team faces an extremely hard righty like Jered Weaver will probably happen a handful of times. If the power stays high, it will be hard for the Jays to continue to bat him second 100 percent of the time, but his opportunities for runs and RBIs should only be dampened by Scutaro's departure. Whether he'll capitalize as well on them is another question...

Home runs:

Hill's HR/FB% was 3.6% in 2006, 8.6% in 2007, and 14.9% in 2009 (again, we're not treating 2008 with much gravity). In the same span, he's slightly increased his fly ball% (to 41% in 2009, compared to 39% for his career). The net result is that 15% of 41% of his 584 balls in play went for home runs, or about 6%. With his relatively high contact percentage (for a power hitter), he struck out only 14.4% of the time, which is why he was able to put almost 600 balls into play. For comparison, these numbers are quite similar to Aramis Ramirez's career rates (15.2% strikeouts, 44.5% FB%, and 13.7% HR/FB). While Hill has improved his strength, we think an Aramis Ramirez comparison is still out of reach, but many aspects of that type of power/contact hitter are likely to be repeating qualities. Expect around the same total of 584 balls in play. To fall back to 20 HR, Hill would have to reduce his HR/BIP% to just 3.5%. That's essentially what his HR/BIP% was in 2007 (3.36%). We're going to temper our enthusiasm, and use a 3:2 weighted average of 2009 and 2007 percentages of HR/FIP (which comes out at almost exactly 5%), and predict 29 HR for Hill in 2010.

Batting Average:

As we know, batting average is a tough stat to predict. For beginners, there's so much variance that a spot-on prediction can easily look terrible due to random sampling. But—as I noted in an article on Freddy Sanchez at the time of the trade—the better the contact skills, the less variance (duh!). Anyway, Hill has a .310 career BABIP. While he's hitting more fly balls than ever before and this number may drop a little, his .290 in 2009 seems overly low. We see a good chance that his batting average tops .290 with an increase in his BABIP more than making up for the decline in homers we've anticipated.

Putting together the pieces, it seems like Hill is a great buy-low candidate, in leagues where people put too much stock in the standard projection systems. He might not come up with a .290-29-90 season, but it seems very likely he'll come close to it.

Edwin Jackson | Detroit | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.8 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 3.62 ERA

2009 was a coming-out party of sorts for the former Dodgers phenom who has bounced around. His value was so low preseason that one well-known blogger called the trade of Matt Joyce for him “ridiculous” for the Tigers. Clearly, the trade didn't hurt the Tigers, but there are reasons for the Tigers (and E-Jax owners) to be worried that perhaps he won't repeat.

Starting with the list of accomplishments—he was just 25 years old, and had his innings bumped up to 214 in 2009, a total arrived at gradually, which should alleviate the risk of overuse. He went 13-9, 3.62, and helped the Tigers almost make the playoffs. He struck out 161 to just 70 walks. His WHIP was 1.262, just missing the top 10 in the AL.

But it really is a “what have you done for me lately?” sport, and Jackson was far better than this at the break, with a 7-4 record, 2.52 ERA, 97 K in 121.2 IP, and just 10 HR allowed with a 2.77 K:BB ratio. The second half, though, was more of “bad Edwin” (that would be the pitcher who had a career ERA of 5.15 entering 2009, with a 1.632 WHIP and 55 HR allowed in 456 IP). After the break, Jackson was over .500 (6-5), but his ERA was 5.05, and his WHIP soared to 1.527 (it had been barely over 1.0 in the first half). Possibly worst of all was the fact that he managed to allow 17 HR in just 92.1 IP.

In the final stats for the 2009 season (or two half-seasons in Jackson's case), he had a 4.34 FIP, which was an improvement over past seasons. He had a 4.58 xFIP, which—again—was an improvement. One thing that has been shown with pitchers is that second-half performance is roughly as predictive of next-year performance as using the entire season is. But what to do when the two are completely different? The conservative approach would be to assume that either a) the lucky BABIP and HR/FB% in the first half was lending him confidence, and he was pitching far over his head, or b) that he was hiding an injury in the second half. In either the (a) or the (b) case, it's prudent to stay away from him in fantasy.

The less conservative approach would be that all pitchers are unpredictable, and Edwin Jackson was downright nasty in the first half, even if his “luck” stats made him look better than he was. He has one of the fastest fastballs in the game (94.5 MPH on average), and his O-Swing% (from fangraphs.com) is 5% higher than MLB average, showing that hitters are often fooled into swinging at pitches not in the zone.

We won't suggest that predicting pitchers is easy. Bill James has declared it to be impossible in the past, and there are certainly enough examples every single season to make this declaration seem valid. But E-Jax is even less predictable than most. It's not like Daniel Cabrera was, with the “stuff” but never getting “results,” since Jackson got the results. But the concept is similar, in that he could help a team in every single SP category if he pitches like he did in the first half of 2009. Yet, he could easily be an almost complete waste of auction money if the second half (and his entire career before) is really him. He probably has the biggest difference between his likely upside (i.e. an upside which is likely to occur, not something that's more akin to dreaming, as is true of listed “upsides” for many other pitchers) and his likely downside of anyone entering the 2010 season.

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Waiver Wire Offseason: NL

Michael Street — 2009-11-20T06:00:47+00:00

Jake Fox | Chicago | CIF/OF
2009 Final Stats: .259/.311/.468

For all the things that went wrong with the 2009 Cubs, count Jake Fox among the few things that went really right. A power prospect with six years of minor-league experience, Fox started 2009 by leading Triple-A in every offensive category. Many critics pointed to his long road through the minors, his defensive inconsistency, and his whiff-tastic tendencies (479 Ks in 2,355 minor-league ABs) as reasons he'd never make it in the majors.

Despite this, his absurd .423/.503/.886 Triple-A line through the end of May, combined with a slow start by the Cubs, made Fox's call-up a no-brainer, though there was no real room for him on the field. Drafted as a catcher, Fox has since been moved to 1B, where his glove is barely competent, and where he's blocked by Derrek Lee, who had a resurgent 2009 season. Fox has played a bit of 3B and LF to give him a better avenue to the bigs, but he hasn't impressed at those positions, either.

When he did play in May and June, Fox was dynamite, hitting .320/.350/.528 in 53 ABs and just 11 starts. But even when Aramis Ramirez went down, Fox still couldn't get on the field regularly; he played a mix of 3B, DH and the corner outfield spots during those first two months. Fox continued to spot-start at 3B and the OF through July and kept hitting to the tune of .300/.339/.660, and it seemed that he'd really arrived. By the end of July, his overall slash line was .311/.345/.592, leading to ramped-up playing time in August.

At this point, however, Fox started to slide back down to more expected levels. Over the final two months of the season, he hit just .212/.280/.354 and, more significantly, his plate patience evaporated. In his 103 ABs through July 31, Fox displayed unusual patience, striking out just 14 times against six walks. But in 113 August through October ABs, he struck out 33 times, with eight walks. The seven HRs and eight 2Bs he'd clubbed before that point diminished to four HRs and four 2Bs.

This, along with an uncertain PT situation, makes his future very shaky. Neither Lee nor Ramirez is going anywhere, nor is LF Alfonso Soriano. Though Bradley has been the subject of trade rumors, the Cubs are saying they want a CF, meaning current CF Kosuke Fukudome would slide into Bradley's spot in RF.

The Cubs' new ownership has given no indication that they'll make any big lineup changes (which might make room for Fox), but they say they'll remain very active in the trade market. And that's where Fox is likely to have the most value.

His atrocious glove and roadblocked path to a starting job make him an excellent DH candidate, though he could also go to a team like the Giants, who are looking for a power-hitting first baseman. The Cubs would be foolish to hang onto Fox if they can get something in return for him; the team that might deal for him, however, would be equally foolish to assume that he's going to continue to produce at this rate.

Fox's history of hacking has followed him to the majors. His career BB/K ratio of .38 slipped to .29 in MLB, showing how little that part of his game has changed. The other knock on him has been that he can crush a fastball, but can't hit offspeed stuff. Fangraph's Pitch Type Values shows that's true—against fastballs and cutters, he scored 1.9 and 3.7 runs above average, respectively. But against sliders, curves and changes, he hit -3.8, 0.0, and -2.6, respectively.

Most likely, pitchers figured that out in the second half and started feeding him offspeed stuff. He could still learn, of course, and the right hitting coach combined with playing time could reverse those trends. But it doesn't bode well for a 27-year-old entering only his second full major-league season, and strike zone knowledge isn't a skill he can develop at that age.

Fantasy owners will want to see where he ends up in 2010; with the Cubs, he's practically worthless, barring an injury or blockbuster trade, but he could be a good power gamble as a DH or 1B with the right team. He's not as good as he seemed in the first half of 2009, but he might not be as bad as his second half indicates, either. Just don't pay too much to find out.

Jordan Zimmermann | Washington | SP
2009 Final Stats: 9.1 K/9, 3.2 K/BB, 4.63 ERA

Zimmermann rocketed through the minors as their top pitching prospect, before a visit to The Dreaded Dr. Andrews ended his season this past August. Tommy John surgery will keep him from returning to full strength until 2011, and he might not even toe the slab for all of 2010.

That's a shame, since The Other Zimmermann (note that extra "n" to distinguish him from All-Star teammate Ryan) had impressed coaches and scouts at every level. Already gifted with a sinking two-seamer and four-seam fastball in the mid-90s, Zimmermann has worked on perfecting his curve and slider, while trying to develop a changeup. Right now, just those first four pitches are above-average, but imagine if he can develop a fifth plus pitch for his repertoire.

He was drafted as the third player in the second round of the 2007 draft, and quickly served notice to the other teams who passed him by. In short-season A ball, he racked up 12.1 K/9 and 3.9 K/BB rates, en route to a 2.38 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He continued to average better than a strikeout per inning as he rose to Triple-A over the next two seasons, throwing just 5.1 IP in the minors in 2009 before earning his call-up.

His overall minor-league numbers were equally eye-popping, with that gaudy 9.9 K/9 leading the way, followed by a 3.2 K/BB, 0.7 HR/9, 2.81 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. With barely 195 pro innings under his belt, he got the early call from Washington, joining the pitching-hungry big-league club in time for his April 20 debut against the Atlanta Braves.

He won that start, as well as his next one against the Mets, for a 2.39 ERA, 6.4 K/9 and 2.7 K/BB. Zimmermann wouldn't win another start until June, after a rocky May when he only gave up fewer than fewer earned runs once in six starts, for a 7.27 ERA, 10.1 K/9, and 3.54 K/BB.

His control wasn't a problem, but his 1.6 HR/9 clearly was, along with the defense behind him. Overall, his FIP ERA for 2009 was .99 lower than his actual ERA, not surprising from a team that scored dead last in the NL in R/G, fielding percentage, errors (their 143 muffs led 15th-ranked Arizona by 19, or about 13%), and 15th in defensive efficiency.

Zimmermann righted the ship in June, giving up two or fewer runs in all four starts, for a 1.90 ERA, 8.4 K/9 and 3.7 K/BB. For all that Washington fans had to moan about, this was something that gave them hope for the future. That is, before July.

In that month, he started four times and gave up two or more runs in each outing. His strikeouts were still strong—9.6 K/9 brought him back over a strikeout per inning—but his walks were up, to 3.75 BB/9 to bring that K/BB down to 2.6. Worse, his elbow was bothering him, so the Nats pulled him from the rotation. A short rest and rehab didn't help, and when they sent the MRI results to Dr. James Andrews, Nats fans braced for the worst.

They got it. Zimmermann is out for the usual TJS timeframe of 12-18 months, so you can safely ignore him entirely in next year's draft and monitor him for 2011. Keeper owners will have a tough call to make, as he looked excellent, and is still just 23 years old. Whether you want to hang onto him all next year will depend on your league's depth, whether you have an open DL slot, and whether you're building for the future or the present.

TJS is more of a rite of passage these days than a cause for long-term concern, but it's got to diminish his rising star significantly, at least until 2011 or 2012. The good news is that he might return in two seasons to an improved team, sort of like waking up from cryogenic sleep to find that all the world's problems have been solved and everyone finally has those jet packs they've been promising us since the 1950s.

Hey, it could happen, and it's only slightly less likely than Zimmermann returning to a competitive Washington team. You never know.

Mat Latos | San Diego | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.9 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 4.62 ERA

Like Zimmermann, Latos was his team's top pitching prospect before shooting through the minors to earn a hasty promotion by a crummy team wanting a sneak peek at its future. Unlike Zimmermann, Latos is two years younger and finished the season hale and healthy. But there are other differences, too.

The Padres didn't take Latos until the 11th round, not because of his skills, but because of his reported attitude problems—according to BA, he's got a poor work ethic and "rubs teammates the wrong way with his flippant attitude." But those skills are something else. He's got a 95-plus mph heater, tight curve and hard slider, and has averaged more than a strikeout per inning throughout the minors, along with increasingly sharp control.

As a 19-year-old in short-season A-ball, Latos struck out 74 and walked 22 in 56.1 IP, giving up just pne HR. Those 22 free passes would represent the most he'd give up in the minors, and he would continue to strike batters out while keeping the baseball in the yard. At three levels in 2008, his K rate would dip slightly from 11.8 to 11.1 K/9, while his K/BB grew from 3.4 to 5.3; only his HR/9 rose to 0.6 from 0.2. His 2.57 ERA and 1.11 WHIP confirmed his dominance.

Amazingly, almost all would continue to improve in 2009. Though his strikeouts fell to 9.1, his K/BB continued to rise to 6.1, his HR/9 fell to 0.1 (1 HR in 72.1 IP), and his 1.37 ERA and 0.75 WHIP were at elite levels. The Padres could wait no longer and promoted him straight from Double-A for his July 19 start against Colorado.

He lost that first start, despite giving up only two ER in 4.1 IP, but such is the fate pitching with the Padres' offense behind you. But he won his next two starts, ending the month with 7.0 K/9, 3.3 K/BB, and a 2.70 ERA. His problem, though, was the longball, as he gave up four for the month. This trend continued through August, as he would ultimately give up at least one HR in each of his first six starts.

He also began to struggle finding the strike zone; after just four free passes in his first three starts, he walked 12 in his next four. The bottom fell out in a loss at Chicago, when it took him 92 pitches to get through just 3.2 IP, coughing up five ER on seven hits and four BBs against just five Ks.

It speaks very well of Latos' makeup and perhaps his improved maturity that he rebounded from this to pitch seven scoreless frames against the Braves, needing only 89 pitches to shut down 23 hitters (two more than his brief performance against the Cubs), striking out four, while walking none and surrendering just two hits.

The Padres shut Latos down two starts later to preserve his arm, since he'd thrown 120 IP at both levels and—lest we forget—this kid's only 21. In those two final starts, he again regressed, giving up six ER in 6.1 total IP against the Marlins and Dodgers, striking out six, walking seven and giving up seven hits. Possibly, he was getting tired, physically or mentally, but San Diego made the right call regardless.

Though his numbers don't look great for the year, Latos showed the stuff to cement his status as one of the top young pitchers in baseball. He's slotted for the Padres' rotation next year, and PETCO Park, plus the team's solid defense, should help smooth out the expected rough spots in his performance.

What those can't help, of course, is the battle that goes on between Latos' ears. It's one of the cruel ironies of baseball that a hard-working team player like Zimmermann goes down for TJS, while a reputed head case like Latos soldiers on. I couldn't find any reference to clubhouse problems with the Padres, so it might be that Latos has reformed—or it might be that he takes a while to get under his teammates' skin.

Just like the Padres, fantasy owners should be cautious about drafting Latos too highly, at least until he's got more MLB innings under his belt. But his talent is undeniable, and keeper owners should hang on to him, while everyone else should consider him a good mid- to late-round pick or moderate gamble with a decent bid.

Why am I being so cautious? Young pitchers can implode for a variety of reasons, and a pitcher with a reputation for irritating teammates and shirking a disciplined approach to the game has more red flags than most. Bid appropriately.

Keep offering your suggestions for players you'd like to see covered below. Next week is Brewerfest, with Corey Hart, Matt Gamel and Ben Sheets.

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Top 10 prospects for 2010: Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers

Matt Hagen — 2009-11-19T10:00:35+00:00

Chicago White Sox

1. Tyler Flowers: If he can stay at catcher, an All-Star-level bat could be in the works. He combines good patience with the ability to hit for average and power. If he is moved to first base, which seems more and more likely, his bat may get lost in the crowd. He will be above average at best as a first baseman.
2. Dan Hudson: Hudson had a breakout campaign in 2009, but he is not a blue-chip, powerhouse pitcher. Nevertheless, he has the potential to be a No. 2 starter with his consistent low-90s fastball to go along with a strong repertoire of secondary offerings, highlighted by his potentially plus slider.
3. Brent Morel: If his bat development continues to go well, Chicago may have a very solid major league third baseman on its hands in Morel. I cannot envision his stolen base and home run numbers translating to higher levels, but he does have good speed and some power to supplement it. The key will be whether or not the rest of his offensive game takes the next step.
4. John Ely: Ely isn't an ace in training, but he isn't completely a smoke-and-mirrors guy either. He has a consistent low-90s fastball with good movement, supplemented by a plus change-up. He won't miss a lot of bats, but he will keep hitters off-balance, even in the majors.
5. Jared Mitchell: In my mind, Mitchell was not a first-round talent in the 2009 draft, but Chicago saw potential in him and selected him at No. 23 overall. Until he proves me wrong, I will be skeptical of his bat. He is way too raw for a college hitter, and his power and stolen base potential are not what they are cracked up to be. He is a first-round pick, though, so he has to be on the radar screen.
6. Jordan Danks: Defensively, Danks is quickly becoming a great center fielder. His bat is not where it needs to be, however. He has a little bit of power, some decent speed and a solid approach at the plate, but his swing still has holes that need to be ironed out, causing his batting average to suffer.
7. Dayan Viciedo: The hype surrounding Viciedo was ultimately unwarranted. He still could become a solid major leaguer, but he is not a star in waiting. His approach at the plate is too undisciplined, and his power/speed combination falls short of the initial scouting reports.
8. David Holmberg: Holmberg brings a great mix of pitches to the mound, including a curveball and change-up that have the makings of plus pitches. His fastball falls flat right now, but further velocity is expected as his frame fills out. He's the most intriguing pitching project in Chicago's system.
9. Josh Phegley: His bat speed is lacking and littered with holes, but Phegley has a nice line-drive swing. His defense isn't anything special, but he should stick behind the plate. If everything works out right, Phegley could be an average all-around major league catcher.
10. John Shelby: Shelby has a nice power/speed combination and some solid contact skills to back it up, but his stats don't back up his skill set. He's at the age where he needs to start picking it up, as his prime is quickly approaching. Overall, it's hard to know what to make of Shelby.

Detroit Tigers

1. Jacob Turner: Sporting the most electric fastball of any high school pitcher in the 2009 draft class, Turner is a pure but exciting project. His curveball has the best chance of developing into his out pitch, but it has a long way to go. He is one of the more raw but talented players in minor league baseball.
2. Scott Sizemore: Perhaps the best second base prospect in baseball, Sizemore has the kind of power/speed combination that could make him an All-Star. The only downside to his stock is that he will be 25 years old by the start of the 2010 season.
3. Casey Crosby: Crosby came back beautifully from Tommy John surgery to post stellar Single-A stats. I'm holding back a bit on his stock until I see his mechanics stabilize and his powerful left arm perform against better competition, but he might be one of the game's best pitching prospects by this time next year.
4. Alex Avila: Avila rose from relative obscurity to post a solid Eastern League season. He was then promoted to the majors for a brief but head-turning stint that firmly placed him on the prospect map. I don't think he has All-Star ability, but we may be looking at Detroit's long-term answer at catcher.
5. Ryan Strieby: Strieby continues to clobber the ball at every minor league stop he makes. Detroit has played it safe and moved him up one steady level at a time, but the fact is that it's difficult to project his bat moving into the big leagues. I don't think he will hit for much of a batting average, but he could settle in as a legit 30-homer threat. Or he could become another in a long line of Quadruple-A first basemen. All you can do is invest cautiously and cross your fingers.
6. Andrew Oliver: Despite coming out of the bullpen in the Arizona Fall League, Oliver will get every opportunity to become a starter. On the downside, he is very raw for a player his age, and every bit of his game needs refinement. On the upside, he has a lively fastball and the makings of a plus slider.
7. Cody Satterwhite: While his command still needs refinement and his slider and change-up are still developing, Satterwhite has the superior fastball required to be a future closer.
8. Wilkin Ramirez: The tools are still there, but time is beginning to run out. Ramirez has the potential for plus power, and he has some deceptive, workable speed, but he has gaping holes in his swing. And his overly aggressive plate approach isn't doing him any favors. His defense is a liability as well. The odds are stacked against him at this point, but I'm not giving up yet.
9. Cale Iorg: Iorg's defense has Detroit excited, but his bat has been downright dreadful since he was drafted in 2007. It makes me wonder what I still see in this kid. Well, if he can eventually improve his patience and consistency at the plate, his bat has some pop in it—a rare commodity from a shortstop.
10. Casper Wells: Wells doesn't have much power projection left in his bat, he strikes out too much for his average pop, and his patience at the plate is still lacking. Yet, his prowess on defense will make sure that he gets a shot in the majors soon—as a fourth outfielder at least.

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Acey-deucey

Jonathan Halket — 2009-11-19T10:30:29+00:00

Ace and Wild Card?(Icon/SMI)

I've moved across the Atlantic, to a country where "hardball" connotes a five-day-long game with occasional breaks for tea. But that won't stop my rants from coming. Today's will be about fantasy values and pitching depth. Does it matter if a pitcher is an ace on his own team?

On a recent martially inclined fantasy baseball podcast, one of the round-table members argued that one reason why Clayton Kershaw would likely be more valuable than Jonathan Sanchez is that Kershaw is probably going to be the "ace" on his team, while Sanchez is at best behind Lincecum and Cain on the Giants. (By the way, their conversation was spurred by Troy Patterson's provoking article.) I'm not going to relitigate the Sanchez-versus-Kershaw debate, but rather just focus on whether a pitcher being an ace or not affects his value. This canard about the value of aces is actually repeated too often to ignore.

Of course aces are better pitchers than their mid-rotation counterparts. Johan Santana is better than Mike Pelfrey. That's why Santana is the ace of the Mets. Aces are often associated with some harder-to-quantify characteristics like "a big-game pitcher" and the ability to bring losing streaks to a halt. You can bring those attributes to the conversation if you want to argue whether Josh Beckett or Jon Lester is the ace of the Red Sox, if you like. Ace status is updated infrequently: In March, a pitcher is chosen as an ace based on his expected performance for the season, and he usually remains the ace, barring injury or a trade, unless performance issues become extreme (e.g. Chad Billingsley and Kershaw this year).

In any case, the important thing is to not confuse the causational flow: A pitcher's ability affects his qualifications to be a team's ace, not the other way around. In fantasy, you don't care whether the games are big or small or whether the pitcher's team previously lost its last five games (a losing streak) or just lost five out of its last six (not necessarily a losing streak).

If pressed, I'm sure some of those who argue the "ace theory" will come up with some scanty points to support their case. I'm not going to use any data to dispel these points, in part because data on a pitcher's spot in his rotation is hard to find. A bunch of points that really go either way are:

Ace pitchers may get a start or two more on average over the season if the manager starts them on Opening Day and after the All-Star break and otherwise reshuffles his rotation favorably. On the other hand, aces may be held out at the end of the season to make sure they're ready to go for Game One of the playoffs.

Aces, if anything, are more likely to play against tougher opponents. A manager might try to get his best pitcher to pitch against the team's rival. And, at least on Opening Day, the ace is more likely to have an opposing ace as a starting pitcher.

A young pitcher, like Kershaw, may benefit by being the second-best pitcher, if the ace tutors him a bit. However, Kershaw could just as easily get that help if Greg Maddux or Pedro Martinez become the fifth starter on the team.

In any case, these are likely extremely marginal issues. Was Dan Haren any more or less valuable to your fantasy team when Brandon Webb was injured? Was Cole Hamels any better or worse because the Phillies acquired Cliff Lee? Should you care if Roy Halladay ends up on your keeper's team (assuming he stays in the rotation)? I don't think so.

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Player Profile: Rick Porcello

Mike Silver — 2009-11-18T09:03:47+00:00

Rick Porcello is quite the prospect. After losing his rookie status following the 2009 season, "prospect" may be a bit of a misnomer. Still over a month short of his 21st birthday, Porcello is just as much projectability as he is a polished product.

Drafted 27th overall out of Seton Hall Prep in the 2007 draft, Porcello was widely considered the top high school pitching prospect in the draft. Baseball America was particularly high on his outlook, going so far to state that he was the best high school pitching prospect since Josh Beckett.

After signing a $7.285 million contract that included a $3.58 million bonus, Porcello debuted at High-A Lakeland to begin 2008. His initial taste of professional ball was sweet, as he posted a 2.66 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 125 innings. Facing 527 batters, Porcello walked just 33 for a 0.0626 BB percentage, allowing only seven home runs. The control and groundball tendencies were a welcome sight from the right-hander. However, the lack of strikeouts was a bit puzzling, as Porcello's great raw stuff was expected to blow away the competition, especially in the low minors. With just 72 strikeouts on the season (.1366 K percentage), many felt that Porcello's curve would have benefited from remaining in the minors for at least another season. Detroit saw it differently, however, skipping the young pitcher all the way to the majors for his MLB debut in 2009.

Though he wasn't great his rookie year, Porcello's 2009 was about as good as anyone could reasonably have expected from a 20-year-old with one professional season under his belt. Though a few of his secondary indicators were less-than-ideal, especially his strikeout rate, Porcello's rookie year was a success. His 4.77 FIP was good for such a young pitcher and his 3.96 ERA should help his confidence. A .281 BABIP went a long way toward sub-4 ERA, but Porcello's high home run rate at 14.1 percent did much to erase the benefits of his lucky BABIP.

Still, the real story is not Porcello's FIP, ERA nor his BABIP, but rather, his strikeout and walk rates. While his 2.74 BB/9 is very good, Porcello disappointed in his strikeout rate for a second straight year, posting just a 4.69 K/9. With an 84.9 percent contact rate, Porcello's stuff was very hittable, giving major league hitters few problems making contact with his offerings. This is not all bad, however, as the added balls in play helped to keep his walk rate low. Still, strikeouts are a hitter's best friend, and any pitcher aside from Joel Pineiro and vintage Roy Halladay will struggle without them. His other plate discipline indicators were not all that encouraging, either. His 49.0 percent Zone% is below average, as is his 25.1 percent O-Swing%, meaning that he probably should have had a few more walks than he ultimately accumulated.

There was a good deal to like, however. For one, Porcello had a great groundball rate his first year, at 54.2 percent. His high GB% was very much the result of an approach centered around pitching low in the zone and using his two-seamer. That groundball rate will come in handy, as the fewer home runs Porcello gives up, the better his ERA will be.

When valuing Porcello, it is key to remember that he is still young and an incredible prospect with great projectability. However, he doesn't seem to offer a whole lot of value for 2010, given the assumption that he does not see a large upswing in his K rate. Until he offers a good deal of strikeouts—probably somewhere in the 7.0 to 7.5 K/9 range—he won't have much value to your team. Porcello's ERA may not crack the 4.00 barrier next year unless he ups that K rate, and Detroit seems bent on shedding salary next season, which may make wins hard to come by.

So, the strikeouts are in jeopardy next season, as are the wins. And, without Halladay-esque control, he won't post great ERAs or WHIPs, either. This gives Porcello a poor outlook for next season as a fantasy pitcher. If he doesn't make the requisite improvement in his K rate, he won't be good enough to make your rotation, except in very deep leagues. Should he maintain a strikeout rate below 6.00 K/9, he seems likely to post about a 4.3-4.5 ERA with a WHIP around 1.4. In other words, this is not a valuable player, yet.

However, it is important to remember that strikeouts can occasionally spike very quickly for young pitchers, seemingly without warning. Ben Sheets is a great example of a pitcher who couldn't translate stuff into strikeouts for his first few years in the bigs. Sheets posted just a 6.44 K/9 in his first 588 innings, before erupting in his age-26 season with a 10.03 K/9 rate. His first season was not all that unlike Porcello's, as Sheets only put up a 5.59 K/9 his rookie year. Yes, they're different pitchers, but stuff usually shines through in the end, and Porcello's got plenty of that. It would be nice to see a little more giddy-up on that fastball, as it was good, though not quite as good as advertised. Sitting at 91 mph last season, many expected it to be around 93 mph last season.

No, Porcello didn't shine his first season, but he had plenty to be excited about. Next year, he is worth a flier, but not much more. Early in the season, be sure to watch his fastball velocity and strikeout rates. If these two rise, a good season could be in store. If they don't change, he will probably post a season much like 2009. Because of his underwhelming stats, he should come on the cheap next year, so there's no need to rush to the counter for his services. Just stay vigilant and act quickly if he shows signs of breaking out, as he'll be much harder to pry away once a breakout becomes acknowledged.

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A rock in Colorado

Paul Singman — 2009-11-17T09:20:37+00:00

Todd Helton, smiling, as he prepares to unleash on the oncoming pitch. (Icon/SMI)

What Todd Helton means to the Rockies is the definition of a franchise player. He was drafted by the Rockies back in 1995, came up through their farm system, and ever since 1998 has played consistently excellent baseball for the major league club. With 2008 as an exception, Helton has put up a wOBA of at least .375 in his 11 other seasons with the Rockies.

+------+-----+-----+----+-----+----+-------+
| Year | AB  | R   | HR | RBI | SB | AVG   |
+------+-----+-----+----+-----+----+-------+
| 2006 | 546 |  94 | 15 |  81 |  3 | 0.302 |
| 2007 | 557 |  86 | 17 |  91 |  0 | 0.320 |
| 2008 | 299 |  39 |  7 |  29 |  0 | 0.264 |
| 2009 | 544 |  79 | 15 |  86 |  0 | 0.325 |
+------+-----+-----+----+-----+----+-------+

In recent years Helton has scaled back from the 30-plus home run seasons he routinely achieved in the earlier half of the decade and has transitioned nicely into a high average hitter with mild power. None of these seasons are worth bragging about to your girlfriend, though none of them (with 2008 as the exception again) is an embarrassment either.

Following 10 straight seasons of good health, Helton burned fantasy owners in 2008 when he missed close to 80 games because of a lower back injury that required surgery. Helton was picked on average that year at No. 120 in drafts, not a particularly large investment. However, because of his previous consistency, his general ineffectiveness when playing and eventual lost season were particularly upsetting for 2008 owners.

Most fantasy players have a memory that spans the offseason and come 2009, they remembered the disappointment Helton brought the year before. He was picked almost 100 picks later on average in drafts at pick 215 and to the people who selected him then, Helton did not disappoint in 2009. With his good health intact, Helton was able to put up season numbers of a .325 average and 15 home runs with decent run and RBI totals.

The people who owned him in 2008 must be feeling the sentiment I described at the beginning of my last article.

Looking ahead

With the 2010 season a ways away, yet still approaching, the questions that remain are what will Helton's 2010 season numbers look like and where will he be taken in drafts?

After the 2008 season, many people felt Helton had begun what would become his eventual decline. Knowing that makes his 2009 season all the more impressive—a renaissance of sorts. Instead of foreboding the beginning of his end, 2008 looks like more a blip on the radar than anything else.

Power

Supporting that claim are his home run stats, shown below:

+------+-----+-----+----+-------+--------+
| YEAR | AGE | AB  | HR | HR/FB | OF/FB% |
+------+-----+-----+----+-------+--------+
| 2007 |  33 | 557 | 17 |    10 |     34 |
| 2008 |  34 | 299 |  7 |     8 |     36 |
| 2009 |  35 | 544 | 15 |     9 |     36 |
+------+-----+-----+----+-------+--------+

Although his home run total dropped in 2008, the rate at which he hit home runs remained virtually the same, at about nine percent. Since Helton is not hitting home runs at tremendous rate in the first place, there is a good chance he continues to post home run totals in the mid-to-low double-digits, even as he continues to age in his 36-year-old season.

Plate discipline

Helton continues to have one of the best sets of eyes in baseball, routinely accomplishing one of my favorite feats for batters—walking more times in a season than striking out. (As an aside, by my count 15 batters accomplished this feat in 2009.) Impressively, Helton has done this each of the last seven years, exemplifying his great discipline at the plate:

To learn these stats or for a refresher on them click here.

+------+-----+----+----------+------+-------------+-----------+
| Year | BB% | K% | Judgment | A/P  | Bat Control | Bad Ball  |
+------+-----+----+----------+------+-------------+-----------+
| 2007 |  17 | 13 |     134  | 0.04 |        95   |       84  |
| 2008 |  17 | 17 |     134  | 0.05 |        90   |       80  |
| 2009 |  14 | 13 |     129  | 0.07 |        93   |       80  |
+------+-----+----+----------+------+-------------+-----------+

Helton continues to have a Judgment rating through the roof, though 2009 did show the beginnings of perhaps some deterioration. Even if that deterioration continues into next year, Helton will still possess the ability to post an average above .310 and certainly one above .300.

Final thoughts

Even as he has aged, Helton has retained the ability to hit for a high average with low double-digits power. Therefore, another season of a .310-.320 batting average with 12-15 home runs seems the most likely path for Helton in 2010. The greatest risk to his season is injury, magnified by his 2008 back injury that was termed "degenerative." I am unsure how much of a threat that back injury continues to be, so if there are any injury experts around, feel free to share your thoughts.

What I do know is that while a .315-14-90-90 first basemen is not spectacular, it certainly is solid and if Helton falls past the James Loneys and Billy Butlers of the world, I might find myself taking a chance on him.

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Fetch me my slippers

Derek Ambrosino — 2009-11-16T08:52:04+00:00

I want to say from the start that pure player evaluation is not my greatest asset when it comes to fantasy baseball. I don’t consider myself a master prognosticator and I am only considered to be a numbers junkie by those who don’t know any true numbers junkies. One thing I do think I am good at is balancing risk and reward when constructing a team. Often, what this comes down to is the simple principle of buying low on players with high ROI potential.

There are certainly plenty of young upstarts who I like, but the Andrew McCutchens of the world will also command pretty hefty price tags. While I’ll take a chance on players like that if I’m interested enough and I think the price is right, what I really like doing is drafting players who slip in the draft because they are coming off of busted seasons or injuries.

Here, I’d like to briefly lay out some players who are likely to slip further than they probably should in next year’s drafts. I am not saying that every one of these players will bounce back in 2010 in a big way, but rather that they will likely have higher upside and/or a better history of producing value than many of those drafted similarly.

It’s important to note that if you are investing in high potential players late in the draft, you do not need to hit on every pick. Succeeding on just a few can often make up for the lost value of the busts, especially in a shallower league where there are options to fill out rosters on the waiver wire. So, let’s get going now.

Cole Hamels: Hamels was victimized by BABIP last year. His HR/9 and K/9 were exactly the same as in 2008, while his BB/9 experienced a negligible .1 up tick. Still, his H/9 rose by a full two to 9.6 — a rate that is clearly an outlier when looking at Hamel’s career. Hamels will still not come cheap, but I can easily see his ADP fall a good 40 spots. Hamels clearly has the potential to be in the top tier of pitchers. Consider taking another premium bat when others are grabbing their ace and targeting Hamels a few rounds later. Then double up and get one of the better Tier Two starters a few picks afterwards to help balance the risk.

J.J, Hardy: Hardy struggled with injuries and poor play last season. Prior to that, however, Hardy averaged 85 runs scored, 25 homers and 77 RBIs, while hitting .280 during his age 25 and 26 seasons. That’s not bad production for a shortstop. Hardy was just acquired by Minnesota where he’ll have a chance to erase last season’s disappointments. I have a feeling Hardy will slip really far in drafts this year. If he does, he’ll be a quality option at a steep discount at an increasingly thin position.

Chris Iannetta: Iannetta is something of a tough case to figure out. Many thought he was poised to break out last year, but he did not. Still, I’m not sure his season was as bad as it looked. He did still manage to hit 16 homers and drive in 52 runs in fewer than 300 at bats. We saw a drastic increase in his FB%, and substantial decreases in both his GB% and LD%, which partially explains his .250-ish BABIP, but also how he was able to hit 16 homers out of 66 hits. (Half of his hits last year were for extra bases.) Between a small sample size and trajectory rates that are all over the place for his balls in play, it seems difficult to predict where Iannetta will level out. But, he still has all the potential he had last year, and the price is likely to have dropped.

Howie Kendrick: I’m not sure if any player had a more of a roller coaster ride last year than Kendrick. In mid-June, Kendrick was sporting a .230 batting average and a .280 OBP and was sent down to the minors. At the beginning of July, Kendrick was brought back up and went on a tear to finish the season, amassing 37 runs, six homers, 39 RBIs and five steals over his final 54 games. He put up OPS marks of .981, .835 and 1.093 in July, August and September, respectively. Just looking at the composite numbers of Kendrick’s season tells an incomplete story. Last year, Kendrick showed us his best and his worst. If you felt fine taking him as a top 10 second baseman last year, I don’t see why you shouldn’t feel the same way this year. The price will likely have dropped though.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: Dice-K had performed terribly over the early part of the season, before losing time to injury. He returned toward the end of the season to make four consecutive quality starts and earn wins in three of them, striking out 20 in 24 innings along the way. Matsuzaka did struggle with walks, but that has been part of his make-up all along. It’s likely that Dice-K will be the last pitcher with realistic 200K potential available in your draft.

Alex Rios: In a terrible season Rios still managed to drive in 70 runs and combine for more than 40 homers (17) and steals (24). Surely, his season was a major disappointment, and he was even jettisoned to the waiver wire in shallower leagues, but Rios has a history of producing valuable fantasy seasons and will only be 28 next year. He hits in a homer-friendly ballpark and in a potent line-up. The question will be where in that line-up he hits. Rios was a borderline top 50 draft pick the past two seasons and will be starting for the Chi Sox next year; don’t give up on him.

James Shields: Like Hamels, it seems that the difference between Shields’ numbers in 2009 was greater than the difference in his performance. Shields saw a spike in BABIP, but also saw an increase in line drives hit off him. His walk rate jumped a bit, from 1.7 to 2.1 per nine innings, but his K/9 and HR/9 remained stable. I think Shields is a solid pitcher who might be able to be had some 150 picks into a draft. I like him as a value pick next year.

Geovany Soto: Soto came on like gangbusters to win the 2008 ROY. Last year was a mix of injuries and poor performance. It was a lost season for the promising young backstop. I thought he was too highly ranked last year, but this year he may fall entirely off of some owners' radars. I normally preach not spending highly on catchers, and I maintain that philosophy. But, sometimes a player with the potential to be elite at a position falls so far that you can’t ignore it. That may happen here.

Rickie Weeks: Weeks was on his way to the best season of his career last year, when an injury ended his season about a quarter of the way through. He was hitting more balls in the air than ever before, both liners and fly balls, and looked like he was on his way to putting up the power numbers many had speculated he was capable of. Weeks might be a forgotten man at an increasingly deep position next year; keep an eye out for him in the late rounds.

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Clone Wars: Jonathan Sanchez and Clayton Kershaw

Troy Patterson — 2009-11-16T07:56:31+00:00

This doesn't follow my normal comparison as I usually have two players with similar stat lines and try to explain why one player might be better or more surprising. This time I found two players who couldn't have looked more different in 2009, but looking at the numbers they should have been more similar. These two pitchers are two of the better strikeout pitchers, but they also can't keep from giving up the free passes.

Name                 W   L   ERA   WHIP   K     BB    IP     K/9   BB/9  K/BB  GB%     FB%     HR/FB%
Jonathan Sanchez     8   12  4.24  1.37   177    88   163.1  9.75  4.85  2.01  40.70%  43.10%  10.30%
Clayton Kershaw      8   8   2.79  1.23   185    91   171    9.74  4.79  2.03  39.40%  41.60%   4.10%

This matchup in 2009 came down to one thing. Kershaw gained a huge advantage in his number of homers allowed. You could argue he is going to continue this since he's pitching in Dodger Stadium for half his future games, but as we know AT&T Park is not friendly to hitters either. Kershaw had the lowest HR/FB% in baseball this year and less than half the amount of any other pitcher on the Dodgers staff. On the other hand Sanchez threw a fairly high HR/FB% based on other Giants pitchers such as Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum. Using xFIP we can get an idea of how similar they are with Kershaw at 3.94 and Sanchez at 4.22.

MLB: OCT 15 Phillies at Dodgers - NLCS Game 1
Oct. 15, 2009: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw throws against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Dodgers lost 8-6 to the Phillies in Game One of the 2009 NLCS at Dodger Stadium. (Icon/SMI)

Obviously we are dealing with two pitchers who came into the league in very different situations. Kershaw was drafted seventh overall in 2006 out of high school while Sanchez went to college and lasted until the 27th round of the 2004 draft. Also using John Sickels ratings from Minor League Ball we see Kershaw was rated an A-grade pitcher and Sanchez was a B-grade pitcher.

Kershaw has the pedigree of a much better prospect and spent so little time in the minors we have very little to work with in minor league numbers. He struggled with control in the minors, though, topping 3.8 walks per nine innings at A ball and Double-A. His EqERA in Double-A was 6.94 in 2007 and 5.19 in 2008, which is also a bit concerning. On the other hand, Sanchez did not top 3.8 walks per nine innings until Triple-A in a small sample size of 44.1 innings. Their strikeout rates are comparable as they averaged around 11 strikeouts per nine in the minors.

These two pitchers do come at hitters just slightly differently. Kershaw has a two-pitch approach going with fastballs and his dominating curve nearly 90 percent of the time. Sanchez goes with a fastball and a slider nearly 90 percent of the time. This seems to be a trend as you could probably add lefty J.A. Happ who also is throwing two pitches nearly 90 percent of the time (fastball and a cutter).

Many pitchers take a few years to work out control problems once they make the majors and these two have almost the same amount of experience at 66 games started for Sanchez and 51 for Kershaw. Next year will be a defining moment for these youngsters.

Looking to the Bill James projections here is what we see for 2010 so far:

Name                 W      L      ERA    K/9    BB/9   HR/9   FIP
Jonathan Sanchez      8     12    4.24    9.59    4.6    0.88   3.92
Clayton Kershaw      13      7    3.25    9.4     4.55   0.55   3.42

Seems like more of the same for both here. The projections expect both to have big control problems with each walking more than a batter every 2 innings. At the same time, Kershaw is expected to be much better at home run control than Sanchez. Unless they expect Kershaw to improve his groundball numbers, I don't think we should expect the HR/9 to be this widely separated between the two.

I am not confident either one can make huge strides in their control. Based on this, though, Sanchez makes a better value in 2010 as he will be largely forgotten compared to the publicity Kershaw already got before finishing 2009 with a 2.79 ERA. Based on the unpredictability of HR/FB it could easily be Kershaw with the 4+ ERA next year.

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Waiver Wire Offseason: NL

Michael Street — 2009-11-13T08:31:38+00:00

Jeff Francoeur | New York | OF
2009 Final Stats: .280/.309/.423

Sometimes, a change of scenery is all it takes. Francoeur, who had lived in the Atlanta area his entire life, never lived up to the promise he'd shown in bursts throughout his career, particularly when he hit .300/.336/.549 as a 21-year-old rookie in 2005.

He followed this up with two seasons of .276/.315/.446 baseball, both 100+ RBI seasons, but with poor peripherals—his 0.25 BB/K ratio in particular was problematic, despite his .80 contact rate. His power numbers sagged, thanks to an HR/FB rate that dropped from 13.2 percent to 7.8 percent over that time, and an XBH% that fell from 12.8 percent to 8.5 percent.

Then came 2008, when he did so poorly that the Braves sent him all the way back to Double-A to work on his swing, uniting him with his former hitting coach, manager Phillip Wellman, but Frenchy actually hit worse upon his return. He finished the year with a .239/.294/.359 line, including a scant 11 home runs and 71 RBIs. Those kind of numbers wouldn't be acceptable for a middle infielder, let alone a corner outfielder.

And so when he started 2009 in a similar vein, hitting .250/.282/.352, they shocked him by sending him to the Mets for the oft-concussed Ryan Church. Shaken, Francoeur found his hitting stroke in Citi Field. Despite a similar number of at-bats, he racked up a .311/.338/.498 line with the Mets, doubling his home runs from five to 10 and nearly doing so with his doubles, which rose from 12 to 20. His BB/K rate remained fairly steady (.26 with New York vs .24 with Atlanta) while his line drive rate jumped from 18 percent to 24 percent, and his HR/FB rate more than doubled from 4.7 percent to 10 percent.

Incredibly, he accomplished this despite tearing the collateral ligament in his left thumb while making a catch on Aug. 23, after which his line improved to .319/.342/.493 over the remaining 36 games. Francoeur underwent surgery on the thumb at the end of the season and is expected to be fine for spring training. Speculators wonder if that injury could diminish his power, but it didn't seem to hold him back much while it was torn; hard to see it hampering him when it's healed.

The Mets see Frenchy as a vital part of their future plans, and are reportedly looking to sign him to a three-year deal. He would be arbitration-eligible otherwise, with an expected free agency date of 2012. Are the Mets buying high on a 75-game sample? More importantly, what should fantasy owners do?

I wouldn't offer the Mets' excitement over Frenchy's resurgence as a reason to recommend Francoeur, but there have been some good signs of late. His poor plate discipline has held steady in the .25-.30 BB/K range, but 2009 saw him reverse a GB% that had been hovering in the 45 percent range the past three seasons; with the Mets, he lowered that to 34 percent, while bringing his LD% to a career-high 24 percent.

His subpar 2008 could have been due to a .274 BABIP, which continued in 2009 with a .276 BABIP in Atlanta before he jacked it up to .336 with the Mets. A more telling stat would be his lack of aggression in 2008—always a hacker on pitches inside the zone (80-plus percent for his career), he dipped to 76 percent in '08, probably because of coaching to tell him to take more pitches, even ones that look good.

Unfortunately, that's not Frenchy's M.O.—he's a free swinger, both inside and outside the zone. Always well above league average in making contact on pitches inside the zone, he's also gotten better at making contact with pitches the rest of the league would leave alone. While he only made contact with 45 percent of pitches outside the zone in 2005, he can now get wood on 66 percent of those same balls, a rate that exceeds the league average of 61%. In that same time, he's improved his overall contact skills from 72 percent to 82 percent.

He's a free swinger, but he also makes contact, which can keep him alive in counts and maybe even land a few bad balls fair. That's a good thing from a guy who doesn't know how to take a walk, and it's dropped his strikeout percentage from 23 percent to 16 percent since his rookie year. Not knowing a strike from a ball doesn't matter as much to Francoeur, since he can still get a bat on it, no matter what the ump thinks it will be.

That's not a lot to recommend a guy on, particularly one with a history of disappointing fantasy owners like me, and many of you, and coming off an injured thumb. There are better gambles to make, but don't forget that the kid's only 26 next year, so he could still regain a bit of his tarnished luster. And you may find that he's undervalued by other owners, making him a good late-round or low-bid gamble. It looks like he'll get ample chance to prove he's really arrived in New York, so you don't have to worry about a hasty hook from the manager, but he remains a guy with a marginal skill set and a moderately low ceiling for a corner outfielder.

Kyle Blanks | San Diego | 1B/OF
2009 Final Stats: .250/.355/.514

Blanks was Baseball America's choice for top Padres prospect in 2009, and it's easy to see why. He's a big fella (6'6", 280 lbs) who doesn't hit like one—yet.

A career .304/.393/.505 hitter in the minors, he has steadily improved his batting eye (rising from .51 BB/K to .62 in five seasons) and contact rate (rising from .70 to .82 in his last full minor-league season). Despite his size, he's not a pull hitter and hits well to all fields, an approach that has nonetheless resulted in 73 home runs and 93 2Bs in 1662 at-bats in the minors.

That's what makes scouts salivate over Blanks: he's got the tools to be a great power hitter, but hasn't started to try to swing for the fences. Power is something that hitters can develop as they get older (Blanks turned 23 this season), while strike zone judgment and contact skills are abilities that tend to plateau fairly quickly. Equally promising, he hasn't shown much of a platoon split in the minors, actually hitting a tad better (.914 OPS) against fellow righties than southpaws (.869 OPS).

After only a half season at Triple-A in 2009, Blanks got the call to the majors in mid-June and had some great moments, including a 10-game stretch to finish July when he hit .343/.465/.800, with five home runs but just nine RBIs, thanks to the Padres' moribund offense. That was but a taste of what Blanks could bring in the future, once he figures out major-league pitching (his contact rate slipped to 63% and his BB/K fell to .33 in his 148 at-bat debut).

He ended the season on a down note, as the Padres shut him down due to a torn plantar fascis tendon, or a more severe form of plantar fasciitis. This is not a serious condition and shouldn't affect him next year, so long as he stretches his feet better to avoid reinjuring it.

The question with Blanks isn't so much his makeup, as he did little to diminish the expectations around him, as it is where he'll play. He played first base almost exclusively in the minors, with a few games at outfield when they were ready to promote him. He's blocked at first base by Adrian Gonzalez, whose fate lies in the hands of new Padres GM Jed Hoyer. Hired at the end of October, Hoyer has announced his desire to build the club from within, and rumors about a swap of Gonzalez followed almost immediately.

Even if the Pads elect to keep Gonzalez, Blanks has played well enough in the outfield to merit a corner role there, most likely in left. Assuming they don't trade their current outfield talent or bring in any free agents, Blanks is expected to share time with Will Venable, Chase Headley and Tony Gwynn, Jr. Despite his fairly impressive 2009 season, Gwynn is probably the odd man out in that configuration, although Headley could move to third if San Diego trades Kouzmanoff.

For fantasy owners, Blanks has more value as a corner outfielder, though he's no slouch at first base, either. Regardless of where he plays, he should get nearly full-time at-bats, with that "nearly" qualifier removed if he impresses early. Obviously, his chances to maximize his playing time are improved with any trade of Gonzalez or any of the other outfield components, but Blanks is going to be in the field, no matter what. Hitting at PETCO will water his numbers down a bit, but Gonzalez hasn't suffered all that much, and Blanks' ability to use the entire field makes him an even better candidate to excel at baseball's least friendly hitting environment.

Keeper leagues should have him, leagues that count OBP should be especially watchful of him, and every owner should be ready to bid an extra buck or two. Don't go crazy, as he's still fairly green, but Blanks is an excellent long-term bet and a very good short-term one.

Scott Elbert | Los Angeles | SP
2009 Final Stats: 9.6 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 5.03 ERA

In 2004, the Dodgers made Scott Elbert their first pick, 17th overall in the first round, and ahead of current major-leaguers like Huston Street and J.P Howell, but he hasn't lived up to expectations yet. This has largely been due to shoulder surgeries that kept him off the mound for chunks of 2007 and 2008, though he hasn't been great in the bigs, either.

With a fastball in the mid-90s, a hard curve and a change that are all plus pitches, lefty Elbert could be a starter or reliever, and he's done a little bit of both so far. In the minors, mostly at Double-A, his 3.27 ERA, 1.29 WHIP are due to his 10.5 K/9 and 0.7 HR/9, but his 4.8 BB/9 have been problematic. He's shaved that rate as he's progressed; his 4.1 in 2009 (at Double-A and Triple-A) is his career best.

Elbert reached the majors in 2008, but pitched only briefly, and then spent 2009 racing to and from Chavez Ravine, with four call-ups that saw him pitch only 19.1 major-league innings, all in relief. In that time, he struck out 9.6 per 9, only walked 3.2 per 9, but gave up four home runs for a poor 1.8 HR/9 rate.

It's not surprising to see a guy struggle when he's had fewer than 35 innings of work at Triple-A. One of the concerns was his increased hit rate, which shot from 4.8 last year to 8.7 this year, undoubtedly the product of his attempt to keep the ball in the zone and his walks down.

Something else he needs to work on is his platoon splits. Elbert has controlled lefties well in his minor league career, with a .154 BAA and a 2.87 FIP. Righties, on the other hand, have tuned him up (relatively speaking) with a .216 BAA, but (more importantly) a 4.02 FIP. Lefties hit 51.5 percent ground balls against him (40 percent vs. righties), which has translated into righties hitting 13.6 percent line drives (10.5 percent vs. lefties).

That may not seem like much, but his 2009 numbers in the minors have showed that split widening, not shrinking. He held lefties to a .162 BAA and a 1.44 FIP, but righties hit .276 and his FIP was 3.88 against them. Here, too, lefties hit 57.5 GB% (43 percent vs. righties), and righties hit 20.6 percent line drives (12.5 percent vs. lefties).

These are correctable, particularly from a 24-year-old, but they may hint at his future: if those platoon splits continue to diverge, he's going to slot in as a reliever, possibly a lefty specialist, which is not what the Dodgers necessarily expected when they picked him so early.

Also, Los Angeles is currently shopping for a No. 1 starter on the market, which puts several young candidates ahead of him in the rotation: Kershaw, Billingsley and Kuroda will all be there in 2010, and all are much farther along than Elbert. Add a free-agent No. 1 to the mix, and that leaves just one rotation spot for Elbert.

He should compete for that spot in spring training, but I'm betting he's going to return to Triple-A for at least part of next season. He needs some polish, and his undetermined role means he's even less valuable for fantasy owners. His talent (and the Dodgers' ability to train young pitchers) means he's still someone to keep an eye on, but I'd expect that to be late 2010 or 2011 at the earliest. Don't draft him, but keep him on your watchlist, particularly if the Dodgers' staff struggles.

Next week, we'll talk about Jake Fox, Jordan Zimmerman, and Matt Latos. We'll follow that with a Brewers' fest of Corey Hart, Matt Gamel, and Ben Sheets. Chris Ianetta, Joe Blanton and Madison Bumgarner will come the week after, along with whomever else THTF readers want to hear about.

Leave your suggestions in the comments below!

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Waiver Wire Offseason: AL

Rob McQuown — 2009-11-13T08:07:59+00:00

John Danks | Chicago | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.7 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 3.77 ERA

John Danks had a true breakout season in 2008, knocking a full point off his xFIP, which led to two points off his ERA. He has good stuff despite a fastball which isn't overpowering, and had very good control in 2008, walking just 2.6 batters per game. He's also smart, allowing himself to be “mentored” by cagey veteran Mark Buehrle. Given the paucity of other top-tier talent on the White Sox entering 2009, he was clearly their most valuable asset in terms of price vs. performance. So, things looked dire indeed for Chicago when his ERA stood at 5.10 on June 10. He posted a 3.21 mark thereafter (virtually identical to his 2008 ERA), but his peripherals showed a weakening in 2009, as his xFIP was up to 4.65. Unlike Buehrle, he uses a big overhand curve sometimes, and—partly for this reason—his ability to prevent the running game is nowhere near as good as Buehrle's. We expect some improvement in peripherals, but the ERA was somewhat “lucky” in 2009, so don't look for much improvement there.

Gio Gonzalez | Oakland | SP
2009 Final Stats: 9.9 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 5.75 ERA
This may be the cheapest you'll ever find a 10.0 K/9 starting pitcher entering his age-24 season. That's right, 24. It only seems like he's been around as long as Mike Gonzalez. In 2009, he was awful in two starts early, and demoted to Triple-A. He proceeded to destroy Triple-A hitters, reminding everyone why he was so highly regarded as a White Sox prospect. Then as a Phillies Prospect. Then—again—as a White Sox prospect. Then as an Oakland prospect... (you get the idea).

Anyway, upon his recall, his first five games (four starts) were even worse, as he allowed a .405/.463/.738 batting line against en route to a 10.31 ERA over these games. But this was July, not April, and the A's had had their delusions of competing in 2009 dispelled, so he was left in the rotation. Maybe he was shocked into effectiveness after absorbing 11 earned runs in a July 20 start against the Twins, but he was a significantly better pitcher after that, allowing a 4.40 ERA in 13 starts the rest of the season, and holding hitters to a .248/.342/.398 batting line. It's still not what you'd want from a starter long-term, but with the overwhelming strikeout totals, his xFIP was just 4.16 on the season, and that is something to build upon. There's little doubt that he had a hand in his ultra-high BABIP (.369!) and HR/FB (14 percent). But a lot of those “hittable” pitches were coming early in the year, when he had no confidence, and his stuff abandoned him (or did the egg come before the chicken?) With the A's subpar offense and his control problems, we wouldn't go gung-ho bidding on him, but he's on the short list of guys who could vault into preeminence with just a minor improvement in control.

Brandon Morrow | Seattle | SP
2009 Final Stats: 8.5 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.64 ERA
From Wikipedia, “Morrow is an English word meaning 'the next day' (the morrow of the feast) or 'tomorrow'”. Seemingly, that's about as far ahead as the Mariners want to commit to planning for the big righty, as well. After his final start of the season, it was reported that, “Brandon Morrow tossed eight innings of one-hit shutout ball in a 7-0 win over the Athletics on Wednesday night.” And the conclusion drawn by the rotoworld.com analyst was, “Hopefully the former first-round pick will have a clear role headed into 2010.”

Morrow entered 2009 poised to be the full-time closer for the M's. He blew a couple saves early, and was officially pulled from the role on May 15. On May 18, manager Don Wakamatsu said, "I talked with Brandon today. We’re going to keep him in the bullpen but not in the closer role. We’re going to get him some innings and get him to where he feels like he can command the baseball." On June 10, he returned to a starting role, and was expected to get optioned to Tacoma. Instead, he struggled in the Seattle rotation for a month before his July 11 demotion. He was okay at Triple-A, and posted a 40 strikeouts, 23 walks and two homers in 55 innings. He was called up again on Sept. 12, and had a 2.66 ERA (with 18 strikeouts, 13 walks and one home run) in 23.2 innings over four starts. But with his final game of the season against the hapless A's being his only game score over 53 all year, don't be shocked if Morrow is a reliever on the morrow in Seattle. He's getting the winter off, and will be preparing for a role in the rotation. But at this point, it would take a major breakthrough for him to have much fantasy value in 2010. Perhaps an excellent Spring Training would auger such a breakthrough, but keep in mind that even Seattle's park and defense can't save him from his wildness.

Ryan Rowland-Smith | Seattle | SP
2009 Final Stats: 4.9 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 3.74 ERA
We counted “RRS” among the best “hits” on the year-end review of “hits” and “misses”, and the reasons can't be repeated often enough... fantasy baseball is NOT real baseball. In real baseball, a “chuck and duck” pitcher like Rowland-Smith is a reasonable innings-eater for a team like Seattle. In fantasy, he has a chance to be a force in the WHIP category, while helping ERA some also. While you'll need to go elsewhere to find wins and strikeouts, a full-time SP with a sub-1.20 WHIP and a 4-ish ERA is always nice to have. And the fact that he should still be available in the later rounds (or for nearly minimal dollar values) is just gravy. Some may point to his .253 BBIP and suggest that it will rebound to .300. Why? He allows a lot of fly balls, which inherently have lower BABIP rates, and Seattle has assembled a suffocating outfield defense, which cuts that rate even more. Don't get into a bidding war, since you can probably get nearly as much utility from a top-notch non-closing reliever, but keep him in mind.

Carl Crawford | Tampa Bay | OF
2009 Final Stats: .305/.364/.452

With each increase in OBP being so much more important for someone who is such a threat to score, it can be argued that Crawford had his best season in 2009, topping his .315/.355/.466 rate stats from 2007. His 60 steals were a career high, as was his .366 OBP. The 16 times he was caught mitigate the impact somewhat, but don't expect Joe Maddon to stop giving him the “green light” anytime soon.

Stolen bases disproportionately valuable in fantasy baseball. As game-players, we can't afford to be “baseball purists”, and instead must figure out how to work with them. Most valuation systems start by assuming that a “replacement player” would get X stats in a category, and—as the adage about “get steals in the auction” implies—replacement level for steals is very nearly zero. Sure, one owner can get lucky and snag a Pedro Borbon when he's promoted, but banking on a guy like that appearing on your waiver wire is about as dicey as a bank extending bad mortgages. Better to lock up steals when they are available. Crunching the numbers for the past few seasons, “replacement value” for most positions indeed shows almost zero stolen bases (2.4 for outfielders) in AL-only leagues, and the stats-per-SD rate is about 10. If you figure that each Standard Deviation nets about $2.50 (based on a 70/30 hitter/pitcher allocation of auction money), Crawford's 60 SB were worth about $15 all by themselves.

But here's where SB are so tricky. For most players, the variance from year-to-year on steals is quite large. And higher variance is why fewer dollars are generally spent on pitching stats, so why would it be good advice to lock them up in the auction? The answer is that the top stolen base contributors do nothave higher variance in steals than in their other stats. Crawford (remember him?) is perhaps the best example, despite his jump from 25 stealsin 2008 to his lofty 2009 total. Crawford has now played seven full seasons (counting his injury-plagued 2008 as “full”), and has averaged 50 steals per year, with a standard deviation of 12. That's the equivalent of a 25-home run player having a standard deviation of 6 home runs perseason ... and about as reliable as you'll find.

So, for 2010, we think Crawford will generate between $10 and $13 in value from his steals alone (we don't think 60 again is likely), and we like the uptick in OBP without a huge BABIP increase (.346 vs. career BABIP of .332), and think he's likely to again generate something akin to $15 in non-SB value, making him a good bet to approach $30 in value again.

Jacoby Ellsbury | Boston | OF
2009 Final Stats: .302/.355/.415

It would be easy to focus on Ellsbury's similarities to Crawford, as both are exceptionally fast left-handed outfielders who have shown just enough power to make people expect a lot more of it. Ellsbury now has 129 steals in just over 1400 plate appearances, which is essentially two full seasons for a healthy leadoff hitter. At 70-for-82, his success rate has been significantly better than Crawford's, and he's two years younger (the great basestealers in history have all had their best SB seasons pre-27, though they tend to lose speed “gracefully,” by getting on base more and getting more chances to steal).

Because he is an historical anomaly, it's hard to discern what the future portends for Ellsbury's steals. Looking at Boston's top-10 SB seasons, Ellsbury has two of the top four, with the only others of recent vintage Otis Nixon's 42 in 1994 and Tommy Harper's 54 in 1973. In Fenway's high scoring environment, steals just aren't all that important. But stealing at an 85 percent rate helps a team, regardless of offensive environment (even after adding in the seven pickoffs, he was still successful 79 oercent of the time in 89 opportunities).

With speed like his, we don't think there's much reason to worry about him not stealing a ton of bases. The worry with Ellsbury is that his OBP isn't great (just .346 vs. righties, with three of his 32 walks coming as IBBs), and advanced fielding stats suggest he's really killing Boston afield. So, there's some danger of one of two things happening with him, each of which would harm his fantasy value. Boston could replace him, trading him to a team in a pitcher's park which could “make better use of his speed” (depending on treatment of players departing for the NL, this could end up helping a fantasy team if he steals more); or he could end up batting deeper down in the order, which would reduce his plate appearances as well as his runs scored totals. Granted, these aren't huge concerns, and he should still be near the top of any AL draft list. I expect another gradual advance in his batting rate stats (if he stays in Boston), and another league-leading stolen base total, though 70 again would be a surprise.

Chone Figgins | Los Angeles? | 3B?
2009 Final Stats: .298/.395/.393

Figgins has played 274 games in the past two years, 259 of these have been at third base. While this seems to have had an agreeable effect on his play on the field, the lost versatility is no good for fantasy owners. Figgins had 62 steals in 2005, in just 259 steal opportunities, but was down to just 42 steals in 59 tries (with 11 pickoffs) in 313 SBO in 2009. Both his BABIP and OBP were career bests, as was his runs scored total of 114. The latter stat was a function of the best Angels offense in years, and a totally healthy season from Figgins.

I see this as a classic case of numerous indicators pointing to a big crash in 2010. First off, expecting more than 625 plate appareances from Figgins is optimistic, so more than 10 percent of his value evaporates. The Angels are unlikely to repeat their offensive heroics from 2009, or Figgins may be on a team with a less-potent offense, eating into his run (and RBI) totals. His speed shows numerous indicators of being in steep decline. The quick take is that he's had 34-plus steals for six straight seasons, up to 42 in 2009. But there are enough yellow flags that counting on even 30 steals is optimistic for 2010, as would be counting on his rate stats to stay at such high levels.

Nolan Reimold | Baltimore | OF
2009 Final Stats: .279/.365/.466

One of the first Waiver Wire subjects, back on May 15, we predicted Reimold would “match Luke Scott's production, with a few steals thrown in.” Since Luke Scott is a career .264/.350/.495 hitter, Reimold was very comparably valuable in terms of rate stats, and stole eight bases in 411 plate appearances, making that prediction seem spot-on. The next question concerns what the to-be-26-year-old Reimold will do in 2010.

Opinions vary on this, with the Bill James Handbook suggests a .292/.373/.524 season (29 home runs, 84 RBIs), while Heater's “True Talent” feature thinks he'll hit just .254, with only enough at-bats to hit 18 home runs and drive in 61 runs. BJHB has a long track record of over-projecting hitters, especially if they've had a great Triple-A experience the previous year (even if it's too small of a sample size to have much statistical significance); but the “True Talent” projection is unduly pessimistic. With a contact rate that should approach 80 percent, a respectable walk rate, and decent athletic ability, there seems every indication that Reimold will be able to keep his average around .280 while pushing his slugging closer to .500 as he matures. A .280-25-80-10 season from him is possible, and (with a healthy Adam Jones) would give the O's a great outfield trio with the potential to mature into the game's best (with a good No. 4 in Pie as well)!

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