THT Fantasy and Buy on the Rumor

Waiver Wire Offseason: AL

Rob McQuown — 2009-11-06T08:00:03+00:00

Derek Jeter | New York | SS
2009 Final Stats: .334/.406/.465

Congratulations to the New York Yankees on their World Championship! Has anyone heard how many this is for them? ... It's not as though every single article mentions it today. But, love them or hate them, the New York Yankees are a monumentally large part of baseball history. And this team was worthy of taking its place alongside some of their other awesome squads. “The Captain” was “Mr. November” again this year, and there's no doubt that he was a huge part of their 103-win season (even though Pythagorean suggests they were only a 95-win team). Jeter responded to the move to the leadoff role with his second-best season since age 26, even stealing 30 bases—a total he's only exceeded twice. The combination of stamina (716 PA) and excellence is rare in older players in general, and almost unheard of amongst middle infielders. Ripken and Larkin each had a great rate-stat season in their later 30s, but both were with many fewer plate appearances. We wouldn't bet a lot against the future Hall of Famer, but a serious decline seems highly likely for age-36 Jeter in 2010.

Mark Teixeira | New York | 1B
2009 Final Stats: .292/.383/.565

Did we mention that the Yankees won? (cue John Sterling) Well, they had a lot of high roto value players helping them. Gun-for-hire Mark Teixeira fit into the New York scene like he'd been there all his life, and his lousy postseason won't be held against him as winning is the “great deodorant.” We'd like to add something clever or insightful here about Teixeira, but what can you say? He's about as consistent as you'll find—expect .290/.380/.550 with 110-plus RBIs in that lineup, and it's unlikely he'll disappoint. If he has a big postseason in 2010, he will take his place in the hearts of Yankees fans. He's been in the hearts of fantasy baseball fans for years already, though.
[ed - As a side note, I was reading the comments about Derek Carty's great results in expert leagues this season, and in the comments was the quip that "you can't win a league early, but you can lose it." I've happily drafted Teixeira with late first-round picks in numerous leagues over his career, and don't think I've ever been disappointed. Probably now that he's a Yankee, the days of him being a "draft bargain" are gone, but there is a lot to be said for "banking" a high-consistency guy like this, even if it's a slight over-draft. - Rob]

Paul Konerko | Chicago | 1B
2009 Final Stats: .277/.353/.489

Paul Konerko put up stats that were so close to his career line you'd think it was a misprint. Even the BABIP was just two points different, and hitters' BABIPs tend to regress to their own norm (yeah, we know, that's a very nebulous concept, but so far the predictors of BABIP haven't done a great job), unlike a regression to norm of the entire MLB sample as pitchers' BABIPs tend to do. Still, the three-year totals for Konerko aren't that great, and he'll be 34 in March. Better players have had careers without much success after age 33, including Steve Garvey, whom Konerko highly resembles as a hitter (both are RH, don't walk much, and have very similar career OPS+ scores). Garvey had a “last hoorah” at age 34, so anything is possible, but with Thome and Dye departing, the RBI chances and runs scored may not improve as White Sox fans would hope after the team's awful offensive season. The present void at DH might keep Konerko in the lineup when he'd otherwise need an off day, but then again, Tyler Flowers will be pressing for playing time soon. We don't think the push for free agency money will drive Konerko any more than he already is, so expect across-the-board declines, and while they should be gradual, don't be shocked by a big downturn. From age 32 on, Garvey hit just .277/.309/.411 (which was good for a 101 OPS+ back then, thanks to baseball-reference.com), so a 100 OPS+ type season from Konerko wouldn't be shocking.

Chad Gaudin | New York? | SP
2009 Final Stats: 8.5 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.64 ERA

Having gotten his first taste of the majors at age 20, Gaudin is still just 26 years old (27 in March). Cut by the Cubs in the same offseason where they gave him a $2 million contract, he bounced around before making the World Champion Yankees playoff roster. In many ways, Gaudin looks very much like a league-average starting pitcher. His career ERA is 4.50, good for a 93 ERA+ (which adjusts for the numerous parks and leagues in which he's played). The splits for starter/reliever don't show much of a preference for either, though he relieved more when he was younger (and presumably less ready). His xFIP was about 4.5 each of the past three seasons (including his almost-200 IP 2007 season for Oakland). Room for improvement may even exist, as he's added some K/9 (8.5 in 2009 after 6.5 previously). There have, however, been rumors that he's worn out welcomes for reasons other than his performance, and that fits, since at $2 million, he's a bargain, even if it's not the sort of pitcher a team wants starting playoff games. To the public, he's always expressed a preference for starting but a willingness to relieve, as needed. This should make him an ideal “Swingman” for a good team, such as, say, the Yankees?

Tommy Hunter | Texas | SP
2009 Final Stats: 5.1 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 4.10 ERA

They finally found the name that works in Texas: “Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.” Well, at least it works to provide a neutral “park factor,” using a multi-year measure of run scoring. That's good news for the pitchers who are expected to throw extra innings on “The Ryan Plan” (no, not something from a Tom Clancy novel). One such hurler is Tommy Hunter, and he needs the help—he's going to let some balls get hit (low 5.1 K/9), and hit in the air (42% FB%). He's young and improving, which should be almost enough to counterbalance the somewhat lucky BABIP (.284) and HR/FB% (8.3%) from 2009. He has a lot of counterbalancing to do, though, as his xFIP (4.99) was much higher than his ERA (4.10). As a Judo expert with a huge body, he should know about balance, though. And he definitely looks durable, as his pitching style and results suggest another big-bodied pitcher—Joe Blanton. With the worries about the luck factors reversing and the park turning back into the hitters' paradise it used to be, we wouldn't go too crazy over Hunter, but he should be good for a lot of IP without causing too much damage to ratios in an AL league.

Matt Garza | Tampa Bay | SP
2009 Final Stats: 8.4 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 3.95 ERA

The smart readers here at THT don't lob up “cookies” for us to smack out of the park, and Garza isn't an easy outlook to decipher. The first thought, of course, is that at age 25 last year, he added more than two K/9 to his power, while adding just 0.62 BB/9, which is a tradeoff usually associated with a step toward true ace-level dominance. His HR/FB% went over 10% after being under 9% for his career before 2009, but he still allowed just a .384 slugging percentage on the season (1.11 HR/9). As for the future, it appears that Garza has some similarities to Carlos Zambrano. They are two of the best RH pitchers at shutting down the running game, which keeps their actual ERAs under their FIP/xFIP estimates, partly due to the fact that they don't rely heavily on big, looping breaking balls—but rather the natural movement on their fastballs—most of the time. Unlike Zambrano, Garza has to face some of the strongest lineups in MLB, loaded with nine hitters instead of eight. Will he fail to take more steps forward, as Zambrano has so far, or will he parlay the extra strikeouts into frequent Cy Young contention? We'd stick with the conservative position for now, as too many things have to go right for him to take that next step. But he's still plenty good as is.

Koji Uehara | Baltimore | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.5 K/9, 4.00 K/BB, 4.05 ERA

It's difficult to post a 4.00 K:BB ratio in the major leagues and not be highly successful, but Uehara is used to being even better, with an 8.1 to 1.1 career ratio pitching for Yomiuri in the Japanese Central League. However, the one thing that can temper success in such cases is injury. And he's also familiar with those, having missed all or parts of several of his 10 years in Japan, while being a frequent Sawamura Award (best pitcher) contender while healthy. As happens in the U.S., his team tried all sorts of things to keep their star pitcher healthy, including a full season of relief work in 2007. Unfortunately for Baltimore, he brought his seemingly balsa wood fragility with his nasty stuff over from Japan. With a swarming hoard of top-tier pitching prospects invading Baltimore, and their closer role wide open, it wouldn't be inconceivable to see Koji the Closer in 2010, though the team will likely try free agency and trade routes first. If he remains in the rotation, expect something akin to the maddening Rich Harden Experience (without as many strikeouts), where he's highly effective for spurts, and then breaks down, and then perhaps returns.

Billy Wagner | Boston? | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.5 K/9, 4.00 K/BB, 4.05 ERA

Normally, we'd say to take a 15-IP sample size with a salt mine full of the stuff. But Billy Wagner isn't normal, and he made a great career move accepting the shift to Boston and the AL, despite not closing games. He showed that he could be a dominant reliever, even in the rugged AL East (1.1 WHIP in Boston). He struck out 26 batters overall in those 15.2 IP. And, if it becomes important, he's shown that he can excel in a non-closer capacity. His average fastball velocity returned to his pre-injury level, and he's apparently ready to become The Man in some town. Expect some team to get a fairly good price on a top-tier closer in 2010, due to concerns over his injury history and—to a lesser extent—his age. Some fantasy owner could similarly reap the rewards of reduced interest, and our position is that pitchers get hurt all the time ... nothing makes Wagner significantly more risky than any other pitcher who was healthy at the end of 2009.

Thanks for the great suggestions ... please keep them coming! Don't worry if they've been written up recently, we'll either get the latest dish (maybe a shorter blurb), or postpone it for a couple weeks if there's pending news, such as with free agents).

I'll try to post the ledger of who was reviewed when, and keep it on the bottom weekly, starting next week. For now, you can access the history of THT Fantasy articles at the URL with the date in it, as such:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/archives_art/2009/10/30

Friday dates with Waiver Wires:
May 1, 8, 15, 22, 29
June 5, 12, 19, 26
July 3, 10, 17, 24, 31
Aug. 7, 14, 21, 28
Sept. 4, 11, 18, 25
Oct. 2, 16, 23, 30

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]>

Waiver Wire Offseason: NL

Michael Street — 2009-11-06T06:00:24+00:00

Eugenio Velez | San Francisco | 2B/OF
2009 Final Stats: .267/.308/.400

In his second full season in the majors, Velez endured a bumpy ride. A slow start that had him hitting .216/.222/.438 through the first two months of the season earned him a ticket back to Fresno, where he hit .297/.340/.451 before returning to the Giants (lest you think that minor-league line is all that fantastic, he hit .310/.372/.509 there in a nearly identical number of games and ABs in 2008).

Still, this seemed to energize him, and he finished the year with a .277/.321/.426 final two-plus months, largely due to the 14-game hitting streak he began immediately upon his return, which saw him post a .417/.444/.633 line. After that point, he hit .233/.283/.360, a lower OPS than he'd had before his demotion. Even worse for his fantasy owners, he only collected 11 measly steals, the source of much of his fantasy value.

The team as a whole had its worst SB totals in several years; the Giants' 78 swipes were their fewest since 2006 and the lowest in the Bruce Bochy Era. The 2009 Giants weren't a team built for speed, with Velez, Randy Winn and Emmanuel Burriss the nominal speedsters, and none of them cracked 20 steals, with Winn's 16 leading the way. With a team that was fourth-worst in the NL in runs per game, and had the lowest OPS+ in the league, it's likely that Bochy didn't want to risk runners when he had them.

Of course, as the Giants and Velez both know, to steal a base, you've got to get on base, and neither did so very well. As a team, the Giants had a horrific .309 OBP—also last in the NL and further evidence of their amazing pitching in '09—but even Velez, their most frequent leadoff hitter, couldn't beat that awful number. This, however, shouldn't be too surprising, as Velez hasn't shown the plate discipline in his career to be a leadoff hitter.

In the minors, he showed a .36 BB/K ratio; even though that peaked at .53 in 2008, that's still not leadoff-worthy. And in the majors, it's been as bad or worse, with last season's .35 dropping to .29 in 2009. He was a leadoff hitter in San Francisco because of his contact skills (.81 in the minors, .83 in the majors) and his speed (164 SBs in seven minor-league seasons). It should be noted, however, that those minor-league speed numbers are inflated by 113 SBs in Single-A and Double-A; he's only got 28 SBs above that level.

There's no doubt he's got speed, but it looks like it's more likely to manifest itself in doubles and triples (he has 29 doubles and 14 triples in the majors, and 24 doubles and seven triples in Triple-A). His batting average should ratchet up near .300 because of his foot speed and contact ability, but he doesn't bring significant power, dragging his value down further.

Velez's problematic future in San Francisco is compounded by the issue of where to play him. The Giants inked Freddy Sanchez to a two-year deal at the end of October, blocking Velez's best fit at the keystone. As an outfielder, he's a classic 'tweener—not enough leather for center, not enough wood for the corners.

Plus, the Giants are likely to sign a free-agent outfielder next season, and are stuck with Aaron Rowand's whopper of an unloadable deal through 2012. Randy Winn's undoubtedly gone and Fred Lewis has disappointed, but both Nate Schierholz and John Bowker have to be ahead of Velez in any outfield depth chart.

At this point, his future looks to be as a fourth outfielder and backup second baseman, who might bring you a hollow BA with the possibility of some steals. He had some nice moments in 2009 and could reel off another hot streak if he's in the lineup, but if you can predict the two-week stretch when he's going to do that, you ought to be betting on things more lucrative than fantasy baseball.

Ian Desmond | Washington | SS
2009 Final Stats: .280/.318/.561

It's taken Desmond five years to claw his way up through the minors, as the Nats have waited for his bat to catch up with his glove. The glove's significant, though his tendency at every level has been to make the highlight reels while muffing the easy ones. That's common with a young player, and he's got the defensive talent for that to settle down eventually.

But what fantasy owners want to know is whether that batting line is for real. Twenty-one games and 89 PAs is an awfully small sample space, and 13 of those games were against the Braves and Mets, teams playing out the string. It's much more instructive to look at his much lengthier minor-league record.

The closest he came to that a .561 slugging percentage was actually this year, when he slugged .494 in Double-A—his third crack at that level. His overall numbers in the minors are .259/.326/.388, although scouting reports give him decent power and good bat speed. As testament, he's got 39 doubles and 19 homers in the past two seasons, and has thrown in 127 career minor-league steals for good measure.

What he doesn't have is particularly good pitch recognition (.39 BB/K) or contact skills (.78). Some of that is dragged down by his earlier, younger years—though his contact rate has remained steady, he's recorded a .50 BB/K over the past three seasons and .44 BB/K over the past two. In the brief debut he's had, those stats have remained fairly steady, with a .36 BB/K and a .83 CT in that short time. Still, nobody expects him to keep plugging along with an OPS of .879.

Desmond, however, has the advantage that Velez doesn't: playing time. The Nats are going to shift Cristian Guzman over to second to accommodate Desmond, something that should benefit both of them, as Guzman's not the defender he used to be. And there's nobody significant lurking in the minors to breathe down Desmond's neck; their better SS prospect, Danny Espinosa, won't be in the bigs for another year or two, at least.

There are lots of question marks in the Washington offseason, from the free agents they're likely to sign to whether Jim Riggleman will return as manager. Washington probably will bring Riggleman back, and he's already said he's comfortable with Desmond as his starting shortstop. With all the other holes they have to fill, and with Guzman as a fallback plan, Desmond shouldn't face any competition from free agency, either.

So it's a good news-bad news thing for fantasy owners. Yes, he'll be Washington's shortstop, failing injury or utter collapse, for 2009 and probably 2010. And, no, he's not going to produce at the levels he attained in that month-plus of major-league PT. A guy with good bat speed could run into a few longballs and a hot streak, and an OPS in the .725-.750 range with a handful of steals makes him a decent NL-only SS option. But don't be fooled by a 21-game stretch.

Dan Runzler | San Francisco | RP
2009 Final Stats: 11.4 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 1.04 ERA

I'll be honest and say I didn't even have Runzler on my radar, but requests are requests and Evan asked for a writeup—and I'm very glad he did. A third-round draft choice, Runzler is one of those guys who doesn't make too many prospect lists but still holds some value.

Runzler is a 24-year-old lefty reliever who put up the above stats in just 8.2 IP with the Giants down the stretch. He rocketed up through the minors in just three seasons, rising all the way from Single-A to the majors in 2009. He sports a fastball in the mid-90s with late movement but had control problems early on in his career.

Clearly, he seems to have overcome those, a testament to the pitcher's factory that is the Giants' organization. In the minors in 2009, he racked up a 0.76 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 59 IP, striking out 83 while walking just 24. As impressive, his 65% ground ball rate minimized any damage, although the .119 BA and .188 BABIP had to help, too. On the other hand, his 2.61 FIP suggests he was helped by his defense.

Runzler carried those stats over to his short stint with the Giants, albeit in slightly less dramatic fashion. Opposing batters hit only .188 against him, with a BABIP of .250, while he induced ground balls at a 48% rate, to go along with those pretty ratios you see above. FIP, too, was a bit pessimistic, as it gave him a 4.19 ERA, but the Giants did feature one of the best defenses in the NL.

The question is, as always: Will he continue?

The Giants seem to think so, as he's already being mentioned as a bullpen fixture for next year. Even though he's a lefty, his major- and minor-league splits were practically even against lefties and righties, so he's not a specialist, and Bochy didn't use him that way.

Where he did use him was in late innings, and he got better the later he pitched: batters hit .250 off him in the seventh inning and .154 in the eighth. That carried over from the minors, where hitters hit .160 in the seventh, .103 in the eighth, and .115 in the ninth.

That means he's got the chance and the skills to stick in the majors, but in what capacity?

The Giants already have the back end of their bullpen nailed down, with Brian Wilson arbitration eligible until 2013 and Jeremy Affeldt signed through 2010. Runzler will be the seventh-inning guy ahead of them, ready to step in should either falter, and could occupy a more prominent role if the Giants move Wilson.

What that means to fantasy owners, unfortunately, is that Runzler's unlikely to provide more than ratio help and holds, barring anything unpredictable. That, combined with the possibility he could regress after just one season of dominance, makes him a marginal pick at best, but still someone to keep your eye on. Thanks to Evan for putting him on our radar!

Next week, we'll take a look at Jeff Francoeur, Kyle Blanks and Scott Elbert. The weeks following will feature Kyle Blanks, Matt Latos, Joe Blanton and Ben Sheets. Please offer other suggestions in the comments below.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]>

Top 10 prospects for 2010: Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles

Matt Hagen — 2009-11-05T10:20:19+00:00

Tampa Bay Rays

1. Desmond Jennings: As one of the most dynamic players in minor league baseball, Jennings represents the future leadoff hitter for a Tampa Bay organization hoping to compete year after year.
2. Jeremy Hellickson: He is a control artist with the repertoire of a mid-rotation starter. However, improved movement and an uptick in his secondary offerings could lead to even greater things. If Hellickson can stay healthy, he is the most sure thing that Tampa Bay has to offer.
3. Wade Davis: His overall repertoire has ace written all over it, but Davis' control needs to improve across the board if he's going successfully transition to the big leagues.
4. Matthew Moore: Representing the third true potential No. 1 starter in Tampa Bay's farm system, Moore has fantastic stuff but needs to improve his control if he's going to succeed at higher levels. He still has a ways to go.
5. Tim Beckham: He was an overdraft at No. 1 in the 2008 draft, but there is no denying his upside. As a true work in progress, his glove needs just as much improvement as his bat.
6. Reid Brignac: You would like to see him cement his play in the major leagues, but Brignac has a little bit of everything you look for in an everyday shortstop. A very solid player is in the works.
7. Nick Barnese: His stuff doesn't turn heads, but Barnese has all the makings of a mid-rotation big-league starter. It's doubtful at this point, but if one of his secondary pitches develops into a truly dominant "out" pitch, even greater things could be on the horizon.
8. Jake McGee: Back from Tommy John surgery, McGee threw limited innings in 2009. His goal in 2010 will be to recover what he had before the surgery, namely his plus fastball. Tampa may move him to the bullpen permanently, but I'm still willing to invest.
9. Kyle Lobstein: His reputation gets a bit overblown at times, but there is no denying Lobstein's deliberate mechanics and solid repertoire. I do have to question how much projection is left in his arm, however.
10. Cody Rogers: Offering considerable upside, Rogers quietly put together a fantastic Appy League debut. He needs a lot of refinement, but he has a nice combination of power and speed to go along with his natural contact skills.

Baltimore Orioles

1. Brian Matusz: Matusz has everything you look for in a front-of-the-rotation prospect, including an arsenal full of potentially plus pitches, a feel for the type of control it takes to succeed in the big leagues, and an intimidating demeanor on the mound.
2. Jake Arrieta: He has an average four-pitch mix and a fastball that can occasionally touch the mid-90s, but it is time to question Arrieta's endurance. It's the only thing holding back his No. 2 starter upside.
3. Brandon Erbe: Erbe sports impressive stuff, but he doesn't possess an out pitch and, frankly, he is far too hittable right now. His control is not where it needs to be either. He is more raw than he should be at his point, and he looks like a mid-rotation starter.
4. Matt Hobgood: With great endurance and advanced movement for his age, Hobgood has a good amount of upside. His repertoire has a long maturation process ahead, though.
5. Zach Britton: His groundball rate and natural, sinking action are his best assets, but Britton doesn't have enough ability to miss bats, which will become more apparent as he moves through the system.
6. Josh Bell: Bell's home run power busted out in 2009, but his overall upside is not indicative of his numbers. He has the makings of an average third baseman with his strong eye, solid contact skills and above-average power.
7. Xavier Avery: Avery is an eye-catching ballplayer. His raw playmaking ability is something every team craves, but the numerous holes in his swing and lousy plate patience have forced me to be patient.
8. Mychal Givens: Givens is a tremendous athlete with a killer arm at shortstop. He needs a lot of refinement in both his offensive and defensive game. He has a long way to go in order to obtain the smoothness needed to succeed as a line-drive-hitting shortstop.
9. Brandon Snyder: If Snyder weren't a first baseman, his bat would be playable at the major league level. But his offense projects as below average as a first baseman. More development is needed, but his bat could be maxed out.
10. Ryan Adams: With some upside left, Adams has the contact skills to play at higher levels, but the question is whether or not his power, speed and patience will ever develop into usable tools at the same time.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]>

Ifs and buts

Jonathan Halket — 2009-11-05T10:00:18+00:00

"Hmm. If I'm healthy next year, I could be your fourth-round pick." (Icon/SMI)

Warning, this is a rant—a rant with a purpose, but nevertheless one full of unnamed conspirators and false friends. I can't even say for sure that I haven't been guilty of these crimes. The point here isn't to name and blame, but rather to enjoy a bit of therapy. It is healthy for me to let it all out every now and then, and if it helps you—well then we're both smiling. Today's exorcism focuses on two ways that experts (and others) often give non-answer answers.

The ifs

How would you feel about the following hypothetical question and answer?

Desperate fantasy player:
"Dear Guru,
My league does our 2010 draft during this year's World Series. Who would you draft first: Johnny Damon or Raul Ibanez?"

Roster Quack:
"It all depends on who stays healthy. If Ibanez can stay on the field, then he'll have the greater value. If he's not 100 percent healthy, though, and if Damon re-signs with the Yankees, then Damon might be a better pick."

What's wrong with this diagnosis? Well, the Quack doesn't actually answer the question. Instead he has provided a bunch of conditional statements. Linguistically, conditional statements often look like: if event X happens, then the value is Y.

There's nothing wrong with a conditional statement. A bunch of them can often provide more information than a single unconditional statement (which would be, e.g., "Ibanez is worth more right now than Damon"). They're useful for explaining one's reasoning: "Ibanez is worth more than Damon because if Ibanez stays healthy he'll outproduce Damon AND I don't think he's a big injury risk." But just as often, gurus use them to avoid (intentionally or otherwise) giving an answer to the hard part of the question.

For instance, how helpful is a statement like: "If Curtis Granderson could hit lefties as well as he hits righties, he'd be a second-round pick"? Well, if you didn't know that Granderson had terrible splits, then it would be useful. But if you were wondering about his value for next year, you'd be left a little short.

Sometimes substituting a conditional statement in place of an unconditional one is helpful as long as it is accompanied by a little honesty. For instance: "I'm terrible at projecting injuries, so you should use your own expectations concerning injuries. But, if Ibanez is healthy, he is worth more than Damon." Here, the guru is telling you that he could give you an unconditional statement like "My projections are that Damon is worth more than Ibanez," but that it might be based on some unreliable injury forecasts. So, instead he provides you with the part of his forecast that he feels is more reliable, while at least being upfront about his unfamiliarity with the repercussions of Ibanez's current ailments.

The buts

"But for Ibanez's hot September (when he hit seven home runs), he was terrible after the All-Star break. You can't expect that kind of September again, so I think Ibanez is due for a regression."

Nearly everything about this guru's prognosis is correct. Ibanez did have a great September and had an equally desultory July and August. Let's ignore that he also hit seven or more home runs in April and May and grant that such months are rare events. Still, the logic above is almost certainly incorrect.

Suppose I tell you I have a die numbered 1 through X. It could be a 100-sided die (1-100), a standard six-sided die (1-6), etc. You don't know what X is—that is, you don't know how many sides it has. But I do tell you that the die rolls are each independent of each other—the result of one die roll does not affect the outcome of the next (just like any normal die). Ask yourself if there is any difference in the following pieces of information:

1) I tell you that I rolled the die 200 times and only the first four rolls came up with the number 1.
2) I tell you that I rolled the number 1 four times in 200 rolls.

The first outcome—rolling 1 four times in a row to start (and then never again)—is the far rarer outcome. Imagine a 100-sided die—then the probability of doing it would be one time out of 100 million! If we were strato-mating a baseball season with that die, probably we would never get that outcome again. Nevertheless, both statements are equally informative about how many sides the die has (that is, what X is). Statistically, this is due to the independence assumption—which means that the order in which events occur is uninformative.

Now replace "rolls a 1" with "hits a home run." As long as the independence assumption holds in baseball, then it makes no difference whether Ibanez hits all his home runs in September or not. Only the sheer number of home runs is informative, not when they occurred.

There are many discussions of the independence assumptions—for instance, if there is such a thing as a hot or cold player. Most research points against streaks and for independence. It doesn't really matter here actually, unless you believe that streaks can carry over through the offseason and into the next. Off the top of my head, many gurus use "buts" to remove rare events from consideration. Few of them, I would venture, believe in multi-season streaks.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]>

Player Profile: Jay Bruce

Mike Silver — 2009-11-04T09:34:07+00:00

Since his entry into the major leagues, Jay Bruce has been both brilliant and frustrating—teasing owners with his potential while falling short of those expectations.

The saga of Jay Bruce begins all the way back in 2005, when he was drafted 15th overall by the Cincinnati Reds. Premiering in rookie ball that year, Bruce showed good power for an 18-year-old, hitting nine long balls in 192 at-bats. A good-but-not-great debut saw the young outfielder hit .270/.331/.500 and .257/.358/.457 between the Gulf Coast League and the Pioneer League that year. His 22 walks were a good showing for the youngster, but 53 strikeouts were somewhat troubling. Still, his projectability and positive overall line earned him a promotion to A-ball in 2006.

The next season saw Bruce premier for Dayton in the Midwest League. Bruce again produced, with a .291/.355/.516 line in 492 plate appearances, with 16 home runs. Bruce flashed a bit of speed, as well, posting 19 steals. His plate discipline was a bit underwhelming, however, as he managed just 44 walks against 106 Ks.

2007 was quite the season for Bruce, as he slugged his way through three levels, reaching Triple-A in time to post 203 plate appearances. His power numbers made some dramatic leaps, as he was able to hit 26 home runs in 521 at-bats. Still, his plate discipline lagged behind his tools, as the 20-year-old walked just 47 times against 135 strikeouts.

The 2008 season finally saw the arrival of the Reds' prized prospect, as his .364/.393/.630 showing at Triple-A Louisville finally forced the Reds to call up their outfielder. Bruce continued to hit well, raking upon promotion, though tailing off by the end of the season. Still, he performed right along with his minor league indicators: plenty of power but little plate discipline. His 21 home runs in 413 at-bats were a great sign, but 33 walks against 110 strikeouts were troubling. Still, Bruce was young, so strike zone judgment problems were acceptable.

2009 was quite the downer for Bruce. His overall line of .223/.303/.470 was very poor, and he missed 57 games between July and September with a hand fracture. Still, there was a lot to like about Bruce's year—and the poor overall line sets him up to be quite the value pick for the 2010 draft.

First off, don't take his overall line at face value. Sure, he had an awful 13.0 percent line drive rate, but a .222 BABIP is just too low for a hitter of Bruce's caliber to sustain. This, alone, is the primary factor in Bruce's poor line. We'll assume, for argument's sake, that Bruce posted a .300 BABIP. With this improvement, his batting average would rise to the high .270s. With Bruce's hitting ability, his .298 BABIP in 2008, and post-injury conclusion to the season, we have reason to believe that Bruce can turn his woes around in this department. Still, when assessing his prospects for 2010, err on the side of caution when assessing his 2010 BABIP.

There is more to like besides just his BABIP, however. Bruce made some big strides with his plate discipline this past season. He became a more patient hitter, dropping both his O-Swing percentage (30.4 percent O-Swing in 2008, versus 26.0 percent in 2009) and his swing percentage (51.2 percent in 2008, versus 48.0 percent in 2009). This means that Bruce was becoming more selective at the plate, a great indicator for any hitter, especially one with as much power potential as Bruce. In addition, his contact percentage made a nice improvement, rising from very poor in 2008 (71.6 percent) to adequate in 2009 (75.9 percent). Further, pitchers gave even more respect to Bruce's power in 2009, dropping the percent of pitches thrown to Bruce in the zone to a lowly 45.7 percent.

All told, these were very encouraging developments for Bruce. With improved selectivity, he should be able to translate the better offerings into more power, while adding walks. Even though he showed good improvements in his walk rate in 2009, at 9.9 percent, his plate discipline statistics are more indicative of a walk rate around 12 percent. However, his K-rate may take a rise as well, as his rates suggest a strikeout rate around 23 percent. The plate discipline hurdle is a major one for any hitter with a middling sense of the strike zone, so these improvements are very important to Bruce's development.

Bruce's 2009 was very much a tale of two seasons—his putrid pre-injury and excellent post-injury performances. While an injury is never a good thing for an athlete, especially a wrist fracture to a power hitter, the mishap could have actually saved Bruce's season. Hitting a paltry .207/.283/.441 line before the all-star break, he finished the season on a very positive note, hitting .326/.426/.652 in 54 plate appearances, including four homers, eight walks, and 12 strikeouts. In addition, his BABIP recovered, sitting at a cool .366 through the end of the year. Sure, the small sample size is unfortunate, but the success is a great sign for Bruce next season.

Overall, the young Bruce is quite the prospect, both for real life and fantasy. He has great power, demonstrated by his 22 home runs in 345 at-bats and career 18.3 percent HR/FB rate. He hit more fly balls in 2009, 48.5 percent, which, for a power hitter, is a huge positive. And, he is improving in almost every phase of his game. However, his lefty-righty splits still bear watching, as he hit 20 homers in 245 at-bats against righties, with just two shots in 100 at-bats against lefties. His 2010 performance will be interesting in his future outlook, though he is still young enough to find success against southpaws.

While at first glance, Jay Bruce's 2009 season seems like a step back in his development, he actually made a number of significant improvements that will progress his career. He improved quite significantly in his strike zone judgment and selectivity, while also improving his fly ball tendencies. While wrist issues are always problematic for a hitter, he seems to have put these concerns to rest with a strong September. For 2010, expect a very different Jay Bruce, one who finally lives up to his No. 1 prospect billing. A .275-.285 average with 30 home runs doesn't seem out of the question. If he is able to maintain his plate discipline gains, he could post an OPS in the .900s as well, with the high .900s a possibility and 1.000—while a reach—not out of the question. After such a poor 2009, he should go significantly lower than where his true value lies, so don't be afraid to draft him earlier than his big board listing. For next year, watch his contact rate and O-swing percentage, as well as his line drive rate—as they go, so do Bruce. In the end, he looks to be a very good outfielder in 12-team mixed leagues, with an outside chance at stardom. Especially if you're in a keeper league, don't miss out on his 2010 season.

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Avoid closers at your own risk

Paul Singman — 2009-11-03T08:08:36+00:00

Two full MLB seasons have now been played since Derek Carty laid out his strategy for drafting closers. At the conclusion of that article he states that "taking closers early in a mixed league or shallow AL- or NL-only league is simply a mistake" and instead suggests drafting closers later and having some reliance on the waiver wire for saves.

In general I would call that sound advice since saves are a relatively unpredictable commodity and more easily found on the wire than the other fantasy categories. Before we take a step forward let's first take a look at the saves in 2009 that could have been acquired cheaply. We will show this first in a graph of each reliever's ADP against his save total, for every reliever chosen within the first 210 picks of drafts:

As you can see toward the right side of the graph, quite a few closers drafted near the 200th pick still contributed 20-plus saves. The two dots farthest up and right are Ryan Franklin and Fernando Rodney, who had fantastic seasons that far exceeded anyone's expectations.

As a side note, this graph does a good job of showing how the elite closers do not necessarily get you more saves than closers drafted later, but almost guarantee you will get a fair amount out of them. In 2009 at least, of the 14 closers drafted in the first 150 picks, 13 earned at least 20 saves. The one outlier was the injured and ineffective B.J. Ryan.

Do not be fooled in thinking the only cheap saves came from the players represented in the graph above. Plenty of closers—or perhaps relievers-turned-closers—went undrafted in most leagues but still earned saves through some means. In 2009 those players were:


Player            Sv
David Aardsma	  38
Andrew Bailey	  26
Leo Nunez	  26
Mike MacDougal	  20
C.J. Wilson	  14
LaTroy Hawkins	  11
Jason Frasor	  11
Ryan Madson	  10
Jim Johnson	  10
Scott Downs	   9
Juan Gutierrez	   9
Franklin Morales      7
Ramon Troncoso	   6
Randy Choate	   5

Some of these closers took over for their injured peers and others simply pitched their way into the role. The common theme, though, is that in the preseason it was incredibly difficult to picture any of these players having the success they did, and all of these players made their way on fantasy teams via waivers or free agency.

With so many saves available late in drafts and for free on the waiver wire, you would think it would be easy to get saves without drafting a closer early. The truth is, however, that it is fairly easy to get squeezed out of the saves market.

There are two basic ways in which you can acquire saves and they are through drafting and through the waiver wire. Yes, trading for closers is an option, but you should not head into a season expecting to acquire saves through trades.

Focusing on just drafting and adding, ideally you would acquire all of your closers through free agency since there is no cost in doing so. Few things are ideal though, and it is important to estimate in the preseason how many saves you can expect to get from free agents. The way you make that estimation is by knowing what type of league settings lead to more competition in adding free agents and whether that competition will benefit or hurt you. This was discussed in my article a few weeks ago on the impact of 3G phones on fantasy sports, which I suggest reading.

The more you can lean on free agents, the less you have to invest on closers in the draft and vice versa.

Although this idea sounds simple enough, many fantasy owners fail to appropriately estimate how many saves they can squeeze out of free agency over the course of the season. They follow seemingly sound advice like Derek's, pick a few closers late in the draft and leave a dependency on the wire to give them an extra boost in saves. As the graph of ADP vs save totals shows though, the owner gambling on closers late is doing just that—gambling.

If the closers this owner took a chance on fail—which is fairly likely—then this owner better be aggressive in finding saves in free agency lest he be forced to either punt the category or trade away talent on his team for closers. Through simple planning, it is easy to avoid having to go down either of those two undesirable routes.

While Derek's advice from two years ago follows a good thought process, it assumes that you can have at least some dependency on waivers for saves to supplant the ones you draft. If, however, you appropriately estimate that your league-mates will simply beat you to the wire most of the time, then I suggest following the advice Derek Ambrosino gave in the comments section of my article linked to above. He said:

If you know you are traditionally slow to the wire, you may have to bump the top-tier, reliable closers up your sheet on draft day.

This is not to say that elite closers are 100 percent reliable and risk-free, but as the ADP vs Saves graph above shows, elite closers are substantially more dependable than their less-touted counterparts.

In many ways being a good fantasy baseball player is being a good estimator and it is extremely important to be able to accurately estimate how much production you can get out of free agents. Those who are disillusioned to their situation and think they can wait to draft closers on draft day will ultimately pay the price come the end of the season.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]>

Approaching unconscious competence

Derek Ambrosino — 2009-11-02T06:18:43+00:00

How do you prepare for auctions/drafts? Do you refer to rankings or projections during the draft? Do you spend hours and hours copiously reviewing rankings for weeks or months in advance? Personally, I think if you prepare correctly, by learning the concepts of fantasy baseball, doing incredible amounts of legwork reaches the point of diminishing returns pretty quickly.

For the most part, I just make sure I’m briefed on players who changed teams in the offseason and those who have experienced injuries. I keep a list of rankings (from anywhere, really, it’s just to have a list of names, not for the rankings themselves), and a list of each team’s closer. For repeat roto leagues, I also take the standings from the past year and mark off what the 50th and 75th percentiles and the winning totals were for each category. I don’t really use formal projections (mainly, but not entirely, because I’m too cheap to pay for them), but do try to keep a rough running tally as I select players, using a conservative estimate of what I can expect from each, by category. I aim to be competitive in each category, measured against the benchmarks of the previous season.

But, in terms of preparation, it is much more important to learn strategies, theories, trends and concepts than to spend time tweaking rankings. Many people spend way too much time deliberating about individual decisions regarding high ranked players. Those are not the decisions that sway leagues. You don’t win or lose a league on the basis of deciding between Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard. You lose a league because you only have one viable source of stolen bases, or maybe because your top picks were all power-hitting corners and you have no plus middle infielders.

Let’s take a step back and consider one of the most popular models to explain how people develop skills.

In psychology, the “four stages of competence” refers to a model explaining the psychological states one goes through in the process of developing a skill. The four stages are as follows.

Unconscious incompetence: You don’t know how to do something, and are unaware of your deficiencies. This attitude is expressed by many who do not play fantasy baseball and demean the whole endeavor, and people who repeatedly play poorly and dismiss the repeated success of others (and their own failures) as entirely due to luck.

Conscious incompetence: You are still inept, but you recognize that you don’t really know what you are doing. This is often the stage where players realize that fantasy baseball has its own distinct strategies and dynamics, and that the relationship between knowledge of the real, corresponding sport and the fantasy sport are not apples to apples, but more like a Venn diagram.

Conscious competence: You know what you are doing, but executing requires a great deal of concentration and premeditation. These are the guys who pour over rankings, have extremely rigid, but well-crafted draft strategies. Preparation is key in this stage. As one progresses through this stage, players begin to learn how to adapt to trends in drafts/auctions as they develop and how to exploit any inefficiency in how a league is set up.

Unconscious competence: Executing the skill at a high level is second nature to you. You can join a league of strangers a half-hour before the draft, take a quick look at the settings and draft a competitive team. You can determine pretty quickly what other players’ strategies are and make reads on which types of players are over- and under-drafted.

When I embark on learning a new skill, I try to do so in a way that promotes the development of unconscious competence. I don’t want to focus on isolated tasks; I want to understand underlying themes. I’ve helped a number of people throughout the years prepare for standardized tests, particularly the SATs, and I always told them they should spend most of their time (especially if they don’t have much) on learning things that are guaranteed to benefit them no matter what the actual questions on the test are. How is the test scored? When is it in your advantage to guess? What are the question archetypes? What can you learn by analyzing the potential answers to a question without even considering the question? How should you budget your time?

Those who spend an exorbitant amount of time going over long vocabulary lists are making highly inefficient use of their time. (At the very least, study roots, suffixes and prefixes instead.) This information is only of use if the test happens to ask about a specific word, and the whole exercise is only applicable to one portion of the test. Spending time considering Miguel Cabrera vs. Evan Longoria in next year’s draft is akin to studying vocabulary lists for the SATs. It’s very limited in scope, and chances are you won’t even be in a situation where you have to make that decision.

So what should you spend your time thinking about? Here are a couple of more broadly applicable exercises one might want to do in preparation for next year:

Monitor trends in positional scarcity. Most THT readers are pretty savvy about the importance of considering the depth of high-level options at each position when determining value. While corners are usually more plentiful than middle-infielders, the overall trends tend to ebb and flow. It seems that third base is thinner today than it was just a few years ago. Additionally, in deeper leagues that use more than three outfielders, outfield isn’t as deep a position as many people seem to think it is.

Look at past year’s draft results for patterns. Even if your league provider does not index previous year’s leagues, you should print out the draft results of each league so you can refer to them in the future. In one of my regular leagues, the group just tends to value closers very highly. What you do with this information is up to you. You may decide that you have to take closers earlier than you planned to counteract this trend, or you may decide that you want to try to take advantage of this trend by stocking up on extra bats or loading your starting rotation. Regardless, being aware of the trend will inform your decisions. Looking at past draft results is like estimating a customized version ADP.

Make a list of one-trick ponies. Though it is best to avoid having to draft a player who only contributes in one or two categories, sometimes the best laid plans don’t work out. So, make sure you have contingency plans in the case you realize you’re late in the draft and have a categorically imbalanced roster. You may need a Jack Cust, or a Luis Castillo even if that player isn’t the overall best option on the board.

Benchmark a winning season. Think about your team as a unit, not a collection of individual players. Figure out what you need to average from each of your active roster spots to finish in the 75th percentile of each category. This will help you draft players whose skill sets compliment each other.

How do you budget your time when preparing for an upcoming season? What tools do you use? What activities do you feel are indispensable and which are inefficient uses of your time and resources?

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]>

Waiver Wire Offseason: AL

Rob McQuown — 2009-10-30T08:00:25+00:00

Victor Martinez | Boston | C
2009 Final Stats: .303/.381/.480

From a fantasy perspective, Martinez is like Joe Mauer “lite.” He contributes in four categories, doesn't get credit in most formats for his good OBP, and plays a lot of games elsewhere when taking days off from catching. Entering 2009, there were serious concerns that his 2008 injuries had diminished Vic's skills, but nothing could be further from the truth—it's almost like the rest rejuvenated him, as at age 30 he surpassed all his excellent career norms. And, with his newer, friendlier ballpark and lineup, don't be surprised if he keeps it up. Getting at least 100 more PA than a typical catcher, and a lot less hype than Mauer or Wieters, Martinez may actually be undervalued on draft day, considering the huge dropoff after the Big Three to the rest of the pack of AL catchers.

Miguel Cabrera | Detroit | 1B
2009 Final Stats: .324/.396/.547

As a fan of “the game of baseball”—even above any team fandom—the “incident” involving Cabrera's personal life late in the 2009 season was very disappointing. With less fanfare than Pujols, Miguel Cabrera has staked out a claim as the second-best young hitter with his .311/.383/.542 career batting line (though ex-teammate Hanley Ramirez may dispute said “claim”). Entering his age-27 season in 2010 with 4,441 PA already, he has a chance to post some amazing career totals still. He had to drive in 19 runs in the final 24 games to get over 100 (103) this year, but expect his RBI to “rebound” to more than 110 again as Granderson's OBP rises back above .327. We won't profess to know what will happen in M-Cab's off-field life, but while we're hoping for the best—that he lives his life as excellently as he hits baseballs—we'd suggest tempering mathematical valuation projections by $1-2, since off-field events that generate public backlash can occasionally spiral out of control. Not much of a hedge, though, since when it comes to racking up fantasy stats, he's about as good as you'll find in the AL.

Adam Jones | Baltimore | OF
2009 Final Stats: .277/.335/.457

Two months do not a season make, as Adam Jones will attest. On June 2, he knocked two hits against the team that drafted him, the Mariners, putting his stat line at an amazing .347/.402/.611! The former shortstop prospect looked great defensively in center, putting him among the most valuable players in the league at that stage. Rumors of Felix Pie and a voodoo doll weren't substantiated, but Jones hit like Pie had the rest of the way—.230/.290/.353 (and Pie picked up the pace shortly thereafter ... things that make you go “hmmm”?). Mystic explanations aside, Jones is starting to show signs of being one of those players who is constantly injured, which isn't much fun for anyone—fan or fantasy owner (though Pie benefited). Here is a list of injury reports from 2009:

April 20 – hamstring
May 19 – hamstring
June 14 – shin
June 30 – neck/shoulder (after collision with wall)
July 12 – fluid drained from both knees
August 23 – back injury
September 1 – ankle – out for season

No direct causality around the June 2 collapse, but it's easy to understand how he wasn't able to break out of a slump when he was constantly injuring different body parts. Expect to read about how he's “worked harder than ever” and is “in the best shape of his life” in spring training—the usual pablum. But he's clearly in the “high risk” category now. The awesome start to his 2009 season indicates that he's a guy who has almost unlimited four-category upside, but don't be the team that pays full value for his “potential.”

Michael Cuddyer | Minnesota | OF
2009 Final Stats: .276/.342/.520

Where did THAT come from?! Long thought to have great hitting skills, for which the Twins made him the ninth overall pick in the 1997 draft, Cuddyer hadn't been very impressive, hitting .268/.344/.441 in his first eight seasons with the Twins (2,646 PA), and playing mediocre defense. It wasn't totally a surprise that he slugged over .500, as he'd done so in 2006, also. Nor was it a surprise that he drove in 94 runs (he had 109 in 2006), but he was coming off a brutal .249/.330/.369 season, which followed a sub-par 2007, and gave him a distinctly downward-pointing trend line. With the way he kept the team alive after Morneau went down, he has cemented his role on the team, almost certainly insuring that his 2011 club option is picked up. Since he appears totally healthy, expect slightly more than his .270/.344/.457 career stat line, and lots of Mauers—er, baserunners—on base to drive in.

Jon Lester | Boston | SP
2009 Final Stats: 10.0 K/9, 3.5 K/BB, 3.41 ERA

By request, we're discussing what to expect from Jon Lester. The short answer is: Expect more of the same. His ERA was 3.41, his FIP 3.25, his xFIP 3.33. His second-half improvement of over 1.00 ERA bodes well for his 2010, though much of it was “luck balancing,” as his first-half BABIP was .336, compared to .286 in the second half. He's not only unperturbed by pitching in Boston, he's been better at home, allowing just five HR compared to 15 on the road. When his biggest claims to fame were being a cancer survivor and wildness that limited his effectiveness, it seemed quite the reach for Steve Phillips (formerly of ESPN) to tab him as the first pitcher he'd take to build around, but that's not looking so absurd anymore. He had some trouble throwing strikes to the Angels this year in the postseason, but his career postseason ERA stands at 2.57 (in 42.0 IP), so “clutch” pitching doesn't appear to bother him. We wouldn't take him first, but he's a very good bet to have an ERA under 3.5, and a WHIP under 1.3, both of which he's accomplished each of the past two seasons.

Justin Verlander | Detroit | SP
2009 Final Stats: 10.1 K/9, 4.3 K/BB, 3.45 ERA

What number is next in this xFIP sequence: 4.67, 4.38, 4.78? If you said “3.41,” you win! And the Tigers won with Verlander, as he went 19-9 in 2009. His 2008 season had many of the warning signs of a pitcher who'd been overused in his formative years, including a decline in average fastball velocity (“down” to 93.6 mph, but he'd been around 95 the previous 2 years). Well, he rediscovered the triple-digit heat that got so many raves pre-draft, averaging a career-best 95.6 mph on his fastballs. And he also reined in his control, reducing his walks to a scant 2.5 BB/9. Verlander is a flyball pitcher, and can be expected to give up a homer about every 10 IP, so he was slightly “lucky” in 2009, but his BABIP was .323, which can be expected to adjust downward. With the Central being the weakest division, Verlander is arguably the preeminent AL fantasy pitcher to get in 2010, though we'd probably rank a couple of the other heavyweights above him for now, until he shows he can maintain his great control for another season.

In answer to the reader query, we'd take Verlander over Lester, but either should be great. Mike should be commenting on Carpenter on the NL side, but it's presumed that he'd be third in that group, just due to the uncertainty of his injury history.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]>

Waiver Wire Offseason: NL

Michael Street — 2009-10-30T06:00:21+00:00

Ryan Doumit | Pittsburgh | C
2009 Final Stats: .250/.299/.414

Stick your thumb up like you're hitchhiking. See that triangular pocket formed by your tendons? It's called the "anatomical snuffbox," and underneath it is the scaphoid bone, one of several bones that make up your wrist joint. It's also the same bone that Doumit broke on April 19, knocking him out for nearly two months and possibly leading to his awful season.

For what it's worth, this bone is nearly always broken by a fall, the kind where you try to stop yourself with the heels of your hands. Doumit claimed he hurt it while swinging a bat, but it's more likely he hurt it at some other point. There wasn't a play at the plate on the day he hurt it, and his swing was no more violent than usual, at least to my eye. Is this one of those hidden off-the-field injuries? Do with it what you will.

Whatever its cause, Doumit's wrist certainly seemed to bother him for the rest of the season. He wasn't really tearing off the cover in the dozen games he'd played before losing seven-plus weeks, but he limped through most of the season after he returned. His best month was September, when he hit .329/.406/.459, displaying unusual patience, with a .58 BB/K ratio—if that doesn't sound so hot, compare it to the .30 he put up the rest of the year.

Overall, however, 2009 simply stunk for Doumit. His .268 BABIP and .164 ISO were the lowest since 2006 and 2005, respectively. That low BABIP could either signal bad luck or hitting with less authority; that his 17.9 LD% was his lowest since 2006 would point towards the latter. Since it's rare for a guy's power to suddenly vaporize at his age 28, this is most likely wrist-related. To wrap up the anatomy lesson from above, some people can take up to six months to heal completely from a scaphoid fracture, and loss of hand and wrist strength (sometimes permanent) isn't unusual.

On the bright side, his .73 GB/FB ratio, 11.6% HR/F and 3.3 HR% all held steady, so he hasn't changed his swing and he's managing to get the ball out of the yard when he does get a hold of it. He's probably going to recover some of that power as his wrist heals completely.

Pittsburgh fans can also expect to see him behind the plate for the next several seasons—he's signed through 2011, and they've said they have no plans to move him from catcher. Given Doumit's injury history, they may change their tune eventually, and he did get a few starts in RF partway through the season when they were looking for more offense, but that's not going to happen soon. That's more good news for fantasy owners, since his value is clearly tied to his position. The Pirates actually look like they might be a bit better next season, so he might even have a chance to knock in some runs.

Doumit's still a free-swinger, but that power and a CT% in the low- to mid-80s is what makes him such a great option at C. Next season, he's going to be undervalued because of his downer 2009, and you should exercise caution, too. But he's still a good early mid-round gamble with a good upside. I'd expect a year somewhere between 2008 and 2009, but don't be surprised to see him hit the DL again.

Jay Bruce | Cincinnati | OF
2009 Final Stats: .223/.303/.470

Bruce is another power hitter who ran into serious wrist problems. The difference with him was, he didn’t seem to be performing all that well before the injury. Bruce was hitting .207/.283/.411 when he fractured his wrist on July 11—sorry, guys, couldn’t get the scoop on which bone he broke, so there’s no anatomy lesson this time around. When he returned in mid-September, he only got to play in 18 games, but he mashed, hitting .326/.426/.652.

Of course, that screams small sample size, and it probably didn’t hurt that he hit down in the order after he returned, in more low-pressure spots like sixth and seventh. But overall in 2009, he had an OPS almost identical to 2008; he actually improved from .767 to .773, all of that improvement coming from SLG, which went from .453 to .470.

And behind those numbers, he showed even more improvement. He sharpened his batting eye and contact skills, going from .30 BB/K and 73 CT% to .51 and 78% in 2009. He boosted his extra-base hits, too, going from 8.6 XBH% in 2008 to 10.1% in 2009, with 51% of his hits going for extra bases in 2009, as opposed to 37% in 2008.

On the downside, he saw reductions in LD% from 21.1% to 13%, and his HR/FB% also dropped slightly, from 18.5% to 15.4%. That suggests he wasn’t making consistently solid contact, a notion further supported by a BABIP that fell from .296 to .221. Coming back strong from his injury says to me that these are likely to turn around.

Plenty of players have sophomore slumps, and Bruce didn’t really get the chance to figure his out in 2009, even if he showed signs that he was beginning to do so. Though he dropped in OPS each of the two months before getting hurt, he demonstrated a clear shift in his approach to the plate in June. After two months of a free-swinging .37 BB/K, he changed dramatically to a .93 BB/K in June, when he also started making better contact. It’s very likely that he would have pulled out of his apparent nosedive, one that—it should be noted—really was only two months long, hardly something to be concerned about in such a young player.

All of this bodes well for 2010, assuming his wrist injury is behind him. Hideki Matsui (who is much older) suffered a very similar injury in 2006, and saw his SLG dip six points the following year. Not a significant drop, and one that can’t even be reliably attributed to the wrist injury, as Matsui was 33 at the time and some dropoff, or at least leveling off, isn't unusual at his age.

Doctors were pleased with the cleanliness of Bruce’s break, and (again) he came back stronger after returning. Given an offseason ahead of him to continue rehab and strengthening work, and the fact that he’s only 22, I think we can assume Bruce will be fine next season. Try to remember when you were 22 and healed quickly from injuries like this—he’s gonna be fine.

He’ll return to a Reds squad with several young hitters, and picturing him in the midst of guys like Votto, Phillips and Stubbs should make fantasy owners and Reds fans very happy. If you find him undervalued in your draft because of his perceived dropoff in 2009 or concerns about his wrist, go the extra dollar or two. He’s young, he’s talented, and he’s going to keep getting better.

Chris Carpenter | St. Louis | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.7 K/9, 3.8 K/BB, 2.24 ERA

Among pitchers, arm injuries are obviously far more serious, and Carpenter missed most of the past two seasons after two separate procedures: Tommy John Surgery and a repair job on a compressed nerve in his shoulder. In fact, The Original CC hasn't had a DL-free season since 2005. That includes this year, of course, when he missed more than a month with a torn oblique muscle.

But when he's healthy, he's amazing. Of the past three healthy seasons ('05, '06, and '09), his worst WHIP was 1.069 in 2006, a number that led the NL. That's because he gave up about 7 H/9 and under 2 BB/9 in all three years; that plus his .63 HR/9 tells you why he registered a sub-3.00 ERA in that time.

This year, he was as impressive as ever. In 26 starts after coming back from that oblique tear, he reeled off 22 Quality Starts. Two of those were moderate shellings: a six-run, 5.0 IP outing against the Giants on June 30 and a seven-run, 6.0 IP outing against Atlanta on September 13. Chuck those out, and he's got a 1.72 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He's got a solid defense behind him, as evidenced by the .731 DER, but his FIP-ERA was a measly 0.57. This is a guy that deals.

It's hard to read this season as an anomaly, either. His 79.5% strand rate was a touch high, his .274 BABIP and 5.2% HR/F both low, but those are the only stats that look especially skewed. He walked 13 in 41.0 September innings, likely due to fatigue, something that carried over to the middling postseason performance against the Dodgers where he walked four, struck out three and gave up nine hits (including an uncharacteristic dinger).

Overall, his strikeouts have dipped as his GB% has risen, so his fantasy points might be a bit depressed, but he's still one of the top pitchers in the game when he's healthy. That's the crux of the problem with Carpenter: When might he hit the DL again? He'll be 35 in 2010, but with the recovery from TJS behind him, you've got to like his health chances, at least in the short term.

With my crystal ball currently in the shop, I can't tell you if he'll tear another oblique, but pitching coach Dave Duncan is now expected to wear his wizard cap for at least another season, so his mechanics should remain solid. Some of the slightly depressed numbers outlined above say to me he's due for a but of a correction, and I'd expect to see those strikeouts continue to dwindle down the road. He's signed with St. Louis through at least 2011, giving him the comfort of familiarity (and hopefully Dave Duncan) for some time to come.

Carpenter's health concerns push him out of the top tier of pitchers, and keeper owners have to calculate the chances of a serious injury shutting him down again, but he's not far out of that top tier. As a rule, I don't blow a lot of bucks on my pitchers and try to minimize risk, so I'd only take him for my team if he seemed especially undervalued. But I'd put his chances at another excellent season far higher than his chance at serious injury or sudden collapse. And another run at the Cy Young is well within the realm of possibility.

Next week, I'll be looking at Eugenio Velez, Ian Desmond, and Dan Runzler; then, I'll cover Jeff Francoeur, Kyle Blanks, and Scott Elbert; followed by Jake Fox, Matt Latos and Joe Blanton.

Keep offering your suggestions for other players you'd like to hear about, particularly those with offseason questions—injuries, contracts, playing time—looming.

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Top 10 prospects for 2010: New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox

Matt Hagen — 2009-10-29T10:10:29+00:00

2010 top 10 prospects: New York Yankees

1. Jesus Montero: His bat has all the makings of a perennial All-Star. The only question is what position Montero eventually ends up playing.
2. Manuel Banuelos: As an 18-year-old, Banuelos has an attacking approach beyond his years. With some refinement and added velocity he could be an ace in the making.
3. Jairo Heredia: After battling an injury for most of 2009, Heredia posted some respectable numbers in a short period of time. His 2010 Double-A excursion will be the first true test for his mid-90s fastball.
4. Austin Romine: The Yankees are developing Romine with a one-level-at-a-time approach, to fine success. A solid all-around catcher could be in the works.
5. Kelvin De Leon: De Leon's five-star potential is very real, and the Gulf Coast League got a taste of it in 2009. Patience is the key with this terrific young man.
6. Slade Heathcott: This first-round pick has a full toolbox to work with, and he has the ability to be a .300 hitter with a good power/speed combination. But Heathcott has a long way to go.
7. Arodys Vizcaino: His fastball touches the mid-90s, and his change-up/curveball secondary combination has Yankee fans excited. Keep an eye on Vizcaino.
8. D.J. Mitchell: While there isn't much upside left in his right arm, Mitchell sports strong command, a good groundball ratio and an eye-popping low home run rate.
9. Austin Jackson: His power and plate discipline may be his downfall, but there is still time for development. Jackson's speed could be a weapon at the next level.
10. Zach McAllister: His best asset is the consistency that he brings to the mound. McAllister's low-90s fastball and heavy sinking action have all the makings of a back-of-the-rotation starter at the very least.

2010 top 10 prospects: Boston Red Sox

1. Lars Anderson: His 2009 season was nothing short of forgettable, but Anderson's power potential is among minor league baseball's best. I haven't given up on him.
2. Casey Kelly: Boston won't be experimenting with Kelly at shortstop for too much longer, as the mound is where his future lies. For a player of his age, his overall arsenal and polish are virtually unrivaled.
3. Ryan Westmoreland: Even though it may be premature, I'm not afraid to say it: The start to Westmoreland's career has me seeing stars. His true breakout could come in 2010 with Greenville.
4. Michael Bowden: He has middle-of-the-rotation stuff and little left to prove in the minor leagues. But Bowden's brief major league outings have been unsuccessful so far.
5. Stolmy Pimentel: Added velocity is coming, and his overall repertoire is impressive. I can't wait to see Pimentel against advanced competition.
6. Ryan Kalish: As a generally unheralded prospect, Kalish has taken his development one step at a time, and his true breakout season could be coming soon.
7. Junichi Tazawa: He doesn't bring much velocity, but Tazawa has a plethora of secondary offerings at his disposal and a good amount of command over all of them.
8. Josh Reddick: He has the makings of an average major league corner outfielder, but Reddick's questionable power will hinder his stock in the long run.
9. Reymond Fuentes: The best tool is his plus speed, and while Fuentes has good bat speed and line drive power, ultimately, I don't think he has All-Star potential.
10. Michael Almanzar: His tools have not suddenly disappeared, but Almanzar has a long way to go and needs to show a better work ethic if he's going to reach his outrageous potential.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]>