THT Fantasy and Buy on the Rumor http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy en pitchin432@gmail.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-20T10:35:15+00:00 The daily grind: 5-20-13 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-20-13/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-20-13/#When:09:35:15 The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): Scott Kazmir is currently posting some of the best peripherals of his career. The only blemish is an extremely elevated HR/FB ratio: 21.2 percent of fly balls have left the yard.

Jake Odorizzi will make his first start as a Ray today. He was posting solid numbers in Triple-A, including a strikeout rate above nine per nine innings and a walk rate around three per nine. He may be in the rotation for only a few starts while David Price is out.

In terms of expectations, Odorizzi will probably provide top waiver quality output—something like eight K/9, four BB/9, a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. His ownership could shoot up quickly since he's a prospect.

I saw Jeremy Guthrie was facing the Astros today and then I saw he's owned in 61 percent of leagues. I hope about 40 of that 61 percent picked him up as a stream starter, but I know better. Tsk tsk.

Pitcher (bum): There are a couple epic exploits in play for today.

Zach Duke versus Ryan Vogelsong promises fireworks aplenty.

Josh Lindblomt—a relievert—is starting against the A's today.

Alex Sanabia tends to bend but not break. He's a good bet to allow four runs on five innings.

Shaun Marcum is coming off his best outing and could be in the process of turning the corner. I'm going to continue betting against him for the time being.

The Yankees should enjoy a reunion with Freddy Garcia.

Hitter (power): Travis Hafner has dropped off his epic pace, but you can try him out against Garcia.

Domonic Brown is a solid play against Sanabia.

Play the Seth Smith and Brandon Moss train today, although they'll face a mix of righties and lefties.

Hitter (speed):
Eric Young Jr. will start against lefty Patrick Corbin. You may also want to try Gerardo Parra against Jon Garland.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): Matt Garza is 59 percent owned, but in the leagues where he is not owned, this may be your one shot to scoop him up.

Jose Fernandez barely qualifies for a recommendation at 48 percent owned. He's done well against the Phillies in two outings and they may be without Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz.

Pitcher (bum):
Go ahead and stack Angels against Aaron Harang.

The Cardinals will face erratic righty Edinson Volquez.

Tyler Cloyd has been roughed up by Triple-A lineups worse than the Marlins all season. For daily league owners, this might be a rare opportunity to lean on the Marlins offense for cheap points.

Mike Pelfrey's looking pretty ugly this year. The Braves aren't likely to go hungry tomorrow.

Hitter (power):
Juan Francisco will bring his hard swing against Pelfrey.

Dan Straily has struggled with command, making him a solid match-up for David Murphy.

Jonny Gomes will get to face another non-elite lefty in Jose Quintana.

Did you know that "the Royals are 5-0 when Wade Davis allows four runs or fewer but 0-3 when he does not." Thanks MLB.com. Now try Carlos Pena against him.

Hitter (speed):
Kelly Johnson has a good match-up against Ramon Ortiz.

You can hang onto Parra for his start against Jhoulys Chacin.

Noteworthy news


Johnny Cueto is back in action today.

Jurickson Profar has been recalled and will start at second base while Ian Kinsler recovers from bruised ribs. It will likely be a short stint on the disabled list, so don't cut a key contributor for Profar. Yahoo surprisingly gave him only UTIL eligibility.

Garza will make his first start of the season tomorrow.

Weather watch


Games in Baltimore and Chicago may see isolated storms today, but the weather seems manageable otherwise.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Brad Johnson 2013-05-20T09:35:12+00:00 The Hot Seat http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-hot-seat3/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-hot-seat3/#When:08:21:15 Jurickson Profar was called up on Sunday to replace the injured Ian Kinsler and is slated to start at second base on Monday.

If he’s on the waiver wire in your league, even in standard mixed leagues, go pick him up right now. If you’re in an AL-only league, he’s almost certainly already owned, but in mixed leagues he’s likely available, seeing as his ownership on Yahoo is currently 29 percent and just 9.8 percent on ESPN.

Profar, regarded by many as the best prospect in all of baseball, earned a cup of coffee with the big-league club last season as a 19-year-old after he hit .281/.368/.452 in Double-A. He started this year in Triple-A, and while his .278/.370/.438 line looks pretty good to start with, especially for a middle infielder, he has been absolutely raking lately. In his last ten games, Profar is hitting an absurd .415 with four walks and four strikeouts in 46 plate appearances, and he homered twice on Saturday before receiving the call-up on Sunday.

Still just 20 years old, Profar has a tremendously mature approach at the plate, as evidenced by the fact that he has 180 walks and 212 strikeouts in his minor-league career. He also possesses one of the best hit tools in the minors, and because of those two factors, he should be able to hit for a high average in the majors right now. Reaching 15 homers and 15 steals wouldn’t be out of the question in a full season, and with his on-base ability, he has the potential to score runs in bunches in the Rangers’ potent lineup.

The big question, of course, is what the Rangers will do with Profar when Kinsler is healthy. As the Twins have shown with Oswaldo Arcia—and which I predicted in this column three weeks ago—there are ways to get a talented player into the lineup on a full-time basis merely by using him to give the regulars days off. I certainly could see the Rangers following this model.

Another option would be to trade him to fill a need elsewhere, such as in the outfield or the rotation. Both Elvis Andrus and Kinsler are locked up for years and, on a pure baseball level, Profar has more value to other teams as a shortstop than he has to the Rangers as a second baseman/utility man. Every team wants an above-average defensive shortstop who can hit; the Rangers just happen to have one already.

Of course, the Rangers could just send him back down to Triple-A. After all, the kid is only 20 years old. If he doesn’t perform in the majors until Kinsler returns, it would be easily justifiable, and even practical, to send him back down. If he does perform, as I fully expect he will, the Rangers will have a very nice problem on their hands.

So why, with all the questions about his potential playing time, am I recommending owners in standard mixed leagues pick him up? It all comes down to a philosophical belief of mine regarding fantasy sports. My response to a question I received on Twitter regarding Profar sums it up nicely:



I can’t tell you whether Profar will be back in Triple-A three weeks from now. I can’t tell you if he’s ready for the majors. What I can tell you is that you do not win fantasy leagues if you are not willing to take risks. This used to be my Achilles’ heel in fantasy.

I was just not willing to take chances, and I always overvalued the players on my roster because I so badly wanted them to all be awesome. As a result, I perennially finished anywhere between third and sixth in my long-running, 12-team home league. I almost always made the playoffs, but I never won. It took me years to figure out why.

Not everyone on your roster is awesome. Jurickson Profar could be. Just go add him already.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Scott Strandberg 2013-05-20T08:21:23+00:00 Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 8, Vol. 1 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-8-vol.-1/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-8-vol.-1/#When:07:08:15 Denard Span and Will Venable have done basically nothing in the days since we had them on the waiver wire, though I remain optimistic that both will see their ownership levels rise as the next few weeks unfold. Meanwhile, our old friend Patrick Corbin continues his ridiculously hot start to the season, even if a major market correction looms, while Yonder Alonso has seen his ownership levels droop slightly despite maintaining a decent batting average.

But that’s in the past. Let’s talk about some fresh faces as we kick off Week 8 on the waiver wire.

David Phelps | New York Yankees | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership; 4 percent ESPN; 38 percent CBS
YTD: 42.1 IP / 3.64 FIP / 9.78 K/9 / 3.83 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 134 IP / 4.06 FIP / 8.33 K/9 / 3.45 BB/9

Every team should be as fortunate to have a Phelps among its pitching corps, and no, I’m not being facetious. Having aided the team’s October run late last summer, Phelps, 26, now finds himself a member of the starting rotation, having posted a 1-1 record with a 2.84 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over four starts. On Saturday, Phelps neutralized the (albeit struggling) Blue Jays, allowing just one earned run over seven strong innings.

That performance continued what’s been a strong major league career so far for Phelps, who’s been a strikeout-per-inning pitcher since his debut last year and has been stingy yielding free passes throughout his professional tenure.

Granted, his current strikeout penchant is not supported by an ability to generate swinging strikes, which portends a drop there, and the career 4.12 FIP is probably closer to Phelps’ future as a back-of-the-rotation guy rather than the savior he’s been over his past few outings. But why carp? A guy who can pitch competently on a first-place team is a no-brainer add in mixed leagues, right?

Not so fast, because the question about Phelps’ fantasy value has less to do with his ability to be a decent major league starter than it does whether he’s the best option at the Yankees’ disposal when Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda get back.

We’ll start with Nova, who looked primed to return last week from a triceps injury, only to suffer a setback with an injury to his side during an extended spring training game, and it’s currently unclear when he’ll return to active duty.

Pineda, of course, is still recovering from that awful labrum injury he suffered last year, and although he’s throwing again (and reportedly hit 95 mph on the radar gun earlier this month), the Yankees don’t expect him back until mid-June at the earliest.

Long story short, neither Nova or Pineda is coming back soon enough to prevent Phelps from making at least a few more starts, and frankly, their return might not be enough to squeeze him out of the rotation anyway. We’ll find out for sure as they get healthy, but in the meantime, I think Phelps will provide solid fantasy help across the board, making him a worthy pickup in deeper leagues.

Recommendation: Can contribute in standard mixed leagues.

Jake Odorizzi | Tampa Bay Rays | SP | 7 percent Yahoo ownership; .1 percent ESPN; 24 percent CBS
YTD: N/A
ZiPS updated: N/A

The fantasy world held its breath last week when Rays ace and reigning Cy Young Award winner David Price went down with what’s being described as a right triceps injury. On the surface, that doesn’t sound too bad, but his fastball had lost velocity from last year, and there’s speculation that the company line is merely a cover for a far more serious ailment. Time will ultimately tell, but in the meantime, it’s probably prudent to wave bye-bye to Price for at least the next few weeks.

In his place comes 23-year-old Odorizzi, a key part of both the 2010 trade that sent Zack Greinke to Milwaukee and the offseason James Shields/Wil Myers deal last year. Boasting a fastball, curve, slider and changeup, Odorizzi appeared on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list in each of the past three years, and came up for two starts last year in Kansas City.

He’s considered a good, not great, prospect, though he was off to a nice start in Triple-A this year, posting a 4-0 record over eight starts with a 3.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a 9.5 K/9. A former first-round draft pick, Odorizzi seems primed for a solid major league career, even if his ceiling has more in common with a mid-rotation role than an ace’s responsibility.

That being said, it seems he’ll have an opportunity to make his mark as Joe Maddon says Odorizzi will gobble up Price’s starts while he’s on the shelf. In Week 8, that makes him a two-start option as Odorizzi prepares to face the hapless Blue Jays in Toronto this afternoon, and, barring disaster, the Yankees at home on Sunday.

Those aren’t impossible matchups for the neophyte, but they’re not exactly charitable foes, either, so while I’m interested to see how Odorizzi does this week, I’m not sure a sense of urgency surrounds him outside of the deepest mixed leagues in which his two starts are absolutely necessary.

Recommendation: Pass in mixed leagues until he pads his resume.

Raul Ibanez | Seattle Mariners | OF/DH | 8 percent Yahoo ownership; 8 percent ESPN; 12 percent CBS
YTD: 94 PA / .236 / .277 / .562 with 8 HR and 0 SB
ZiPS updated: 404 PA / .237 / .287 / .456 with 20 HR and 1 SB

By the time May dawned, the soon-to-be 41-year-old Ibanez, hitting just .158 at the time, was a fantasy corpse, an afterthought in all but the deepest AL-only leagues. But as the weather heated up, so did Ibanez’s bat, and after helping the Mariners tie up Saturday’s game with a home run against the Indians’ Chris Perez, Ibanez has suddenly seen his ownership pick up thanks to a month that, entering Sunday’s action, had him bashing to a .375 average with six home runs and a ridiculous 1.425 OPS.

Anyone who tuned in to the ALDS between the Yankees and Orioles knows that Ibanez still can provide help on a baseball diamond, and he managed to hammer 19 home runs with 62 RBIs last year. But while the past few weeks have reminded us that Ibanez can still provide fantasy help, it’s important to remember that he’s basically a platoon player in Seattle, splitting time with Jason Bay.

In Week 8, the Mariners will face no fewer than three lefties (Scott Kazmir, C.J. Wilson and Derek Holland), which more or less neutralizes Ibanez's bat fantasy-wise in the immediate future. Players like Ibanez are definitely useful while they’re hot, and I have nothing against salvaging old parts to help the fantasy war effort (right, Travis Hafner?). But I’m going to pass on picking him up right now.

Recommendation: Strictly AL-only league material.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Karl de Vries 2013-05-20T07:08:29+00:00 The daily grind: 5-17-13 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-17-13/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-17-13/#When:09:41:15 The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): Jeanmar Gomez is the best available starter today, which is not a good thing.

Pitcher (bum): However, there are plenty of bad starters to sift through.

Jordan Lyles, Rick Porcello, Vance Worley, and Burch Smith all look particularly exploitable. In addition to those names, Brandon Maurer is opposed by Ubaldo Jimenez in a probable slugfest.

Hitter (power): Lucas Duda has a nice match-up against Edwin Jackson.

Garrett Jones will see Lyles while Daniel Nava will face Worley.

The Giants seem to directing some frustration at Brandon Belt despite solid performance. I expect Brett Pill to see starts against lefties, although I suppose we'll find out tonight.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain has a solid match-up against Jarrod Parker.

Chris Denorfia should start against Gio Gonzalez.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): I would usually recommend Hector Santiago, Marco Estrada and Justin Grimm, but they face the Angels, Cardinals, and Tigers respectively. So I'm avoiding them.

I mention them because I can't point at anybody else without it being a pure gamble. If you want that gamble pick anyway, it's Juan Nicasio against the Giants. But don't credit/blame me for the results.

Pitcher (bum): Joe Blanton has looked lost at times this season. The White Sox aren't a difficult match-up, but they're good enough to cause trouble.

Erik Bedard has yet to settle in this season. He's been unusually prone to walks and home runs—a bad combination.

Chris Capuano has a tough assignment against the Braves.

The Orioles are throwing the always talented TBA.

Hitter (power): Ervin Santana gives up some home runs, which makes it a good day for Seth Smith and Brandon Moss.

Brandon Belt ought to be owned more frequently than 33 percent. A game against Nicasio is likely to help his numbers.

Chris Johnson should like batting against Capuano.

Jonny Gomes finally sees a mid-tier lefty - Scott Diamond

Hitter (speed): Eric Young Jr. or Charlie Blackmon against Tim Lincecum might produce a steal or two.

Noteworthy news


Word on the street is that expanded replay could hit the shelves as early as 2014. The game will be poorer for it. You can't tell, but that was biting sarcasm.

Weather watch


Minnesota, Atlanta, and Chicago have possible thunderstorms in the forecast.


Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Brad Johnson 2013-05-17T09:41:53+00:00 Strength of schedule: Adjusting hitter values http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/strength-of-schedule-adjusting-hitter-values/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/strength-of-schedule-adjusting-hitter-values/#When:06:44:15
In fantasy baseball leagues, being aware of that disparity could lead to enormous advantages in valuing players much more accurately than your league mates, because at this point, strength of schedule just isn’t something the average baseball owner factors in. This week, I’m going to focus on the hitters with the best and worst SOS in certain metrics, and next week I will write up the pitchers.

Note: All of the data used in this article is from BaseballProspectus.com, and only includes hitters with a minimum of 75 Plate Appearances.

Nate McLouth, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and the rest of the Orioles lineup:
Baseball Prospectus has a metric called Opponent Slugging (oppSLG), which is the aggregate slugging average of all the pitchers faced against a hitter. The Orioles have nine of the top 20 performers in oppSLG so far this season. Basically, Baltimore as a team has faced pitchers who have given up an inordinately high slugging percentage so far this year, so all of the power-performances on the team must be taken with a slight grain of salt.

I still buy into Adam Jones, Chris Davis and even Nate McLouth as legitimate fantasy performers, but their power production pace might dwindle the rest of the year. That is particularly true in the cases of Chris Davis (11 HR, .659 SLG) J.J. Hardy (7 HR, .396 SLG) and Manny Machado (5 HR, .541 SLG).

The Blue Jays Lineup vs. the Tigers Lineup
At this point in the season, all of these opponent-gauging metrics seem to come in team-wide waves. One of those stats is Opponent On Base Percentage (oppOBP), which measures the aggregate On Base Percentage of all of the pitchers a batter has faced for the year. The Blue Jays have six of the 10 lowest oppOBP’s in major league baseball, and nine of the bottom 18, whereas Detroit actually has six of the top seven performers in the statistic.

The truth of the matter is the Blue Jays have just faced one of the hardest pitching schedules in baseball so far this year, and the Tigers have faced one of the easiest. Players like Brett Lawrie, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Melky Cabrera have all been adversely affected by that fact, and players like Alex Avila, Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter have all been greatly helped by it.

For example, the difference between Lawrie’s oppOBP (.298) and Torii Hunter’s (.330) makes the 100 point disparity in their OBPs more understandable—Hunter has faced significantly worse competition than Lawrie.

While the ratio of how much oppOBP affects a player’s actual OBP isn’t one to one, a shrewd fantasy owner should acknowledge that it has some tangible effect and downgrade some of what Hunter has accomplished this year, while upgrading what Lawrie has done. Both oppOBP and oppSLG should be used as a general tool to modify a player’s value slightly rather than to overhaul it entirely.

Buy Low On: Buster Posey
Posey has managed a .286/.391/.508 triple slash so far this season. The most impressive part of that is certainly the slugging percentage, as Posey is among the bottom thirty in oppSLG. Most fantasy owners are disappointed that Posey only has 5 homers so far this year, but I think that number should spike the rest of the way and owners will be thoroughly satisfied. Posey has also both increased his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate, so he is maturing as a hitter plate discipline-wise despite some bad luck. Now is a prime opportunity to buy low on the guy who is still clearly the best catcher in Major League Baseball.

Sell High On: Coco Crisp
Coco Crisp is tied for the tenth highest oppOBP in baseball. The reason I’ve singled out Crisp from that list as a sell high candidate is that his skillset in particular benefits greatly from facing a lot of high on base allowing competition. Speed-first guys are extremely prone to having value inflation due to their fluky OBP’s, and Crisp seems like a prime example of that phenomenon.

See, stolen bases are all about opportunities, and logically, the more a player gets on base, the more opportunity they will have to steal bases. So not only did Crisp’s value get inflated in the form of a higher batting average, more runs, and a higher OBP, it also gets inflated (disproportionately so) because Crisp now has significantly more stolen bases than he normally would have up to this point in the season. I still like Crisp, but his pace of eight stolen bases in 25 games is completely unsustainable, and I’d project his .375 OBP to regress to around his career norm of .330. If you can still get top 50 player rater value for him, I would pull the trigger on moving Crisp.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Moe Koltun 2013-05-17T06:44:53+00:00 Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 7, Vol. III http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-7-vol.-iii/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-7-vol.-iii/#When:06:43:15
Sometimes you're a quarter of the way into the season, all of your teams are in first place, all is right with the world, the sun in shining, the gods are smiling upon you, you're walking tall and feel like a million bucks, and then you happen to notice on twitter that David Price (a key cog on your dynasty team) felt something in his triceps, and then felt it again, and then came out of the game. And then seemingly all at once you think to yourself:

Oh god this is the worst thing that has ever happened to me, how could this happen to me? And to David? Poor, sweet David. I wonder if there's anything I can do to help. Would chicken noodle soup help? I have no idea, I'm not a doctor. It always makes me feel better, I guess. How would I even get chicken noodle soup to him? The mail? Delivery? Is he a spaghetti man? Egg noodles? Fusilli? THIS IS A COMPLETE DISASTER. TAKE ANYONE BUT POOR, SWEET DAVID. TAKE ME! TAKE. ME.

Like I said, baseball is funny.

Unfortunately for certain fantasy baseball writers (hey, that's me!) injuries are a part of the game, and they're part of what bring us together here. Dumpster diving is necessary because you always need a Plan B. Even if Plan A is David Price, who has been really durable and just plain great the entire time you've had him on your team. Plan B. You need one. Before we look at some potential Plan B guys today, let's recap a few of our past subjects.

Recent Waiver Wire honorees Mitch Moreland, James Loney, and Will Venable were all among the most added players on CBS this week. Each can provide value in the right circumstances (those circumstances being that you need help, and not a savior).

John Lackey continues to be a very useful pitcher, despite his tough start against the Rays this week, and is still owned in just 34 percent of CBS leagues. He's out there, and he's undervalued.

Matt Garza is making potentially his last rehab start as this is being written, and could rejoin the Cubs early next week.

Let's start today's coverage with Scott Kazmir, since nobody seems to be doing much of that these days.

Scott Kazmir | Cleveland Indians| SP | ESPN: 20.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 23 percent; CBS: 65 percent
YTD: 2-2, 5.33 ERA, 5.58 FIP, 3.87 xFIP in 25.1 innings pitched
ZiPS Projection: 4-7, 5.80 ERA in 73 innings pitched

Kazmir received all kinds of press last week after he spun a pair of gems against Minnesota and Oakland, and as a result was CBS' most added players last week, jumping from 22 percent to 64 percent. I'm not here to recommend him, though, for a few reasons:

1. He's still a pretty extreme flyball pitcher (getting just 36.5 percent groundballs right now) and one who has seen a career rate of 9.5 percent of them leave the yard. It's worth noting that his home run rate is more than twice his career average right now, so a likely drop in that will improve his 5.53 ERA and 5.58 FIP close to his xFIP of 3.87. But still, those are not great numbers.
2. His control has been better, but we're still just looking at a sample of 25.1 innings pitched, and I'm not ready to buy that he's made significant strides there.
3. Because he gets a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks, and because that gets his pitchcount high early, he has a tough time pitching deep into ballgames. In points leagues, this is a real problem.
4. His strand rate right now (82.2 percent) is high, even for a guy who strikes out as many batters as he does.

Recommendation: He's one of the hot topics this week, and his strikeout totals might be pretty at times, but my hunch is his ERA, walks, and lack of innings will make him much less useful to fantasy owners than he will be in real life to the Indians. There are better options available in your league right now. Pass.

Eric Chavez | Arizona Diamondbacks | 3B | ESPN: 1.8 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 5 percent; CBS: 7 percent
YTD: .310/.376/.536 in 94 plate appearances
ZiPS Projection: .284/.347/.480 in 262 plate appearances

Hey, remember this guy? Would you believe me if I told you he was still just 35 years old? (Yes? Okay, well, good. It wasn't a trick statement or anything, he's 35 years old).

Chavez has to be on everyone's short list for "most frustrating/sad career paths." From 2001-2006, in his Age 23-28 seasons, he racked up 29.1 wins above replacement, combing stellar defense with an offensive profile you dream about. He hit for average, he walked, he hit for power. He accrued plenty of runs and RBI and was just generally a fantasy monster. Then injuries set in. He missed half of 2007 and then played just 122 games combined over the following four seasons. Last year he got his health more or less in order (certainly by his standards, at least) and was able to play in 133 games for the Yankees. He wasn't the monster he once was, but Chavez was sneakily good for New York, putting up a .360 wOBA while posting a strong batting average, walk rate, and ISO.

This year, Chavez has been able to play in 29 of the Diamondbacks 41 games, and is mostly just sitting against lefties. When he's in the lineup, he's been hitting cleanup, and producing at the plate just like the good old days. He is quite literally the biggest injury wild card you could ever have, but his .387 wOBA is worth the gamble. If he stays healthy, this pickup could solidify a championship run. If he adds another in a long line of injuries, well, at least you gave it your best shot.

Recommendation: It's hard to believe a guy with an OPS north of .900 is so widely available at this point of the season, but it's likely the fantasy market isn't buying what Chavez is selling because it's been burned so many times before. Add him now and ride the wave.

Munenori Kawasaki | Toronto Blue Jays | 2B/SS | ESPN: 0.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 1 percent; CBS: 3 percent
YTD: .235/.337/.279 in 83 plate appearances
ZiPS Projection: .257/.311/.311 in 402 plate appearances

Let's be clear, this is pretty deep digging for fantasy purposes, and Kawasaki is not going to help you (like, at all) in terms of batting average or power. Now that we've gotten that out of the way, let's talk about what he can do, which is walk, steal bases, and potentially score runs when he's in the lineup (against right-handed pitching, mostly) while Jose Reyes is on the shelf.

In 83 plate appearances this year, Kawasaki has a very strong walk rate of 13.3 percent. There's a lot to like about his plate discipline numbers, including a very low O-Swing% of 18.7 percent, and an incredible contact rate of 94.4 percent. Essentially, he's not swinging at anything outside the zone, and is making contact with pretty much everything he does offer at. With the amount he's getting on base, he's been able to steal five bases, and has only been caught once.

Recommendation: Kawasaki is not a game breaker by any means, and his value will probably evaporate completely when Reyes returns, but in the short term he can provide some value to teams desperately needing middle infield help.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Jack Weiland 2013-05-17T06:43:09+00:00 The daily grind: 5-16-13 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-16-13/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-16-13/#When:09:40:15 The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): Today is not a good day to stream. If you must, Jose Quintana, Jerome Williams, Francisco Liriano and Felix Doubront look like the best options.

Pitcher (bum): Hiram Burgos is probably exploitable on a good day and he's had a long rest. Most pitchers don't like that.

Aaron Harang still seems like he's a few starts from putting it all together.

Edinson Volquez will face a depleted Nationals lineup. It sounds like Harper could miss another game.

Hitter (power): Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay face Harang.

Garrett Jones draws Burgos.

Hitter (speed): Eric Young Jr. continues to be an everyday option for steals. I have a suspicion he may be coming off the bench tonight in favor of Charlie Blackmon.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): Jeanmar Gomez will face the Astros, who have turned into a feast or famine unit. They starve a lot more frequently than they feast, but Gomez is still hard to justify using.

Pitcher (bum): Jordan Lyles seems to be having trouble adjusting to life in the major leagues.

Brandon Maurer versus Ubaldo Jimenez could produce many runs. The same goes for Jeremy Hellickson versus Jason Hammel.

The Rangers will aim to exploit Rick Porcello. Free Drew Smyly.

There are other exploitable pitchers, but I'll draw the line at Vance Worley against the Red Sox.

Hitter (power): Lucas Duda will face Edwin Jackson, whose 6.02 ERA is balanced by a 3.50 FIP.

Continue using Jones.

Daniel Nava is a good play against Worley.

Brett Pill may start against Jorge de la Rosa in place of Brandon Belt.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain goes against Jarrod Parker.

Chris Denorfia will see Gio Gonzalez.

Noteworthy news


Francisco Rodriguez is expected to join the Brewers soon. Don't expect him to take over the closer's gig immediately. In fact, I wouldn't speculate on him unless you're in desperate need of saves or don't have any other use for the roster spot.

Yasmani Grandal is starting his minor league assignment and is expected to return to the Padres May 28. He will likely platoon with Nick Hundley until he can prove himself.

Weather watch


The Mets and Cardinals might see thunderstorms, but otherwise the coast is clear.


Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Brad Johnson 2013-05-16T09:40:06+00:00 Of Uggs and Uggla http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/of-uggs-and-uggla/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/of-uggs-and-uggla/#When:07:03:15
Last week, in my shallowest league, a cold Dan Uggla surfaced on the waiver wire. I hadn’t entered the store of available players to look for a power-hitting middle infielder, or any middle infielder at all, actually. I had just stopped in to browse the spot starting pitchers section. But, like when you are in one of those discount stores and you see an item from a brand normally too high-end to show up at that store, my interests were certainly piqued. Now, this is not the nicest model the second baseman brand makes, and as mentioned, I had no intent to pick up a middle infielder, but the allure of discounted luxury goods can be alluring… even if there’s a chance this Dan Uggla is an irregular. So, I picked him up.

But, did I make the right decision? Is it a good idea to pick up a player simply because he represents a bargain?

In some cases, I think there is a very strong argument for this philosophy – amass talent and decide what to do with it later. And, if you are going to employ this strategy, early in the season is the time to do it. However, the other variable with this strategy is whether your team has current glaring needs. In my case, my offense has been stellar but my pitching has been atrocious. Beyond that, I’m falling a bit too far behind the pace in innings. Even if I feel that much of my staff will come around in the long run (and, I do), I still need the flexibility of that roster spot to take advantage of decent waiver wire options matched up against the Astros and Marlins.

So, I did what your favorite rapper or pop star does with the $8,000 outfit from his/her video. I used my Dan Uggla once or twice and then I returned it. After dropping it off, I bought a lovely start from Nick Tepesch against the Astros and then a productive day from Lyle Overbay on the travel day. I was hoping Uggla would remain available, and allow me to use him regularly on those travel days, when I typically look for spot bats as opposed to spot arms. He may have even convinced me to drop or trade somebody else to make room for him as a regular part of my wardrobe. But, unlike when actually shopping, I couldn’t hide a sweater in the housewares section so I could buy it next time I returned to the store. So, a day or two later, somebody else picked up Uggla.

At the end of the day, I’m comfortable with my decision to prioritize need over value in a vacuum. I have way more room to improve in pitching and need to try to augment my rotation via the wire, either by repeated wise plays or by catching lightening in a bottle on that end. The name of the game is to earn the most points, not accumulate the most talent or value.

How do you balance need vs. value when combing the available players in your league?

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Derek Ambrosino 2013-05-16T07:03:03+00:00 The daily grind: 5-15-13 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-15-13/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-daily-grind-5-15-13/#When:09:47:15 The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Yesterday was a bit of a disasterpiece. I hope few of you used Scott Kazmir or John Lackey (I used both). There's still reason to be cautiously optimistic about both guys, but I would emphasize the caution part more going forward.

Today's grind


Pitcher (to start): Phil Hughes is up to 52 percent owned and remains the best streaming option for the day. He will face the Mariners.

Mike Leake is a decent fallback due to his match-up with the Marlins.

Pitcher (bum): The Phillies got to lefty Scott Kazmir last night, and I predict they'll hit well against Corey Kluber too.

The only thing keeping Mike Pelfrey from being an everyday mention in the exploit column is the five-day rotation.

Coming off four bad outings to start the season, Shaun Marcum has a tough assignment against the Cardinals.

Wade Davis versus Barry Enright sounds like a high-scoring affair.

Hitter (power): Colby Rasmus and Adam Lind may benefit from facing Ryan Vogelsong.

Domonic Brown homered yesterday and has a friendlier match-up tonight.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain has spent some time circling the waivers in my leagues. He has a nice combination of speed and power. He'll also face Kluber today.

Nate Schierholtz faces Jon Garland.

Eric Young Jr. is starting and leading off on occasion. Use him with impunity.

Tomorrow's grind


Pitcher (to start): Honestly, don't try to force it tomorrow. Nobody has a match-up where I can comfortable expect an ERA under 4.00. If you absolutely must use somebody, Jose Quintana, Jerome Williams, Francisco Liriano and Felix Doubront are the best dice throws.

Pitcher (bum): Hiram Burgos got skipped after blowing up against the Reds. The Pirates have a solid offense and will look to exploit any rust he shows.

Aaron Harang will likely struggle against the voodoo Yankees.

Edinson Volquez may be lucky enough to not face Bryce Harper or Jayson Werth, but the Nationals lineup will still be a challenge for him.

Hitter (power): If Harper is out another game, Tyler Moore will get the lovely Volquez match-up.

Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay should enjoy facing Harang.

Garrett Jones will see Burgos.

Hitter (speed): Keep on using Young.

Noteworthy news


Zack Greinke and Curtis Granderson return to the lineup.

Harper was held out yesterday, citing nausea (among other things). That's a bit worrying. The team docs said he did not have a concussion, but nausea is a symptom of a concussion. It bears watching.

Weather watch


There is currently a small risk of storms in St. Louis and Philadelphia, but otherwise it's another fine weather day.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Brad Johnson 2013-05-15T09:47:22+00:00 Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 7, Vol. II http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-7-vol.-ii/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-waiver-wire-week-7-vol.-ii/#When:07:08:15 Andrew Bailey isn’t as close to returning as I may have thought late last week, giving Junichi Tazawa a more lengthy look at the closer’s job in Boston. Problem is, he’s been somewhat terrible since inheriting the job, leading to speculation that a closer platoon with him and Koji Uehara might be possible. Meanwhile, Heath Bell has settled in as the D-Backs closer, though a blown save last week reminded us that he’s hardly a lock for 25-30 saves the rest of the way.

Going even further back in this column’s 2013 track record, Aaron Hicks belted two homers the other day against the White Sox, though that just soothes my ego after the collapse of Jake Westbrook’s fantasy value and Felix Doubront’s recent problems.

But if you wanted to talk about last week’s column, you’d be reading it, wouldn’t you? Let’s look at some new blood.

Will Venable | San Diego Padres | OF | 11 percent Yahoo ownership; 7.6 percent ESPN; 20 percent CBS
YTD: 106 PA / .247 / .327 / .452 with 5 HR and 7 SB
ZiPS updated: 479 PA / .246 / .319 / .421 with 15 HR and 25 SB

Twitter pal Lee Wilson on Friday asked me for my quick thoughts on Venable vs. Craig Gentry and Jordan Schafer. After a quick eyeballing of the three players’ stats, I favored Venable, based on his more consistent playing time and better speed. But the real reason I like Venable—well, at least to the extent one can like a guy with a career .742 OPS—is his 15.4 percent line drive rate entering Wednesday, which is more than three percentage points below his career average. When that climbs, we’ll see his BABIP creep up toward his career .315 level, which will raise his .247 average.

The good news is that Venable is starting to heat up after hitting just .206 last month. Since May began, he’s hit .360 with three home runs and four steals entering Wednesday’s action. Not coincidentally, that hot streak began just after the Padres regained their best offensive player in Chase Headley and Jedd Gyorko began hitting as well. It’s also been encouraging to see Venable hit .327 at Petco Park—yes, that average is inflated by a lofty BABIP, and we’re just talking about a friggin’ six-week stretch here, but for a guy who’s struggled in San Diego throughout his career, perhaps the moved-in fences are a sign that he’ll begin to play better at home.

The 30-year-old Venable, of course, is hardly a newcomer to fantasy circles, having been a full-time player for the past three years after debuting with the Padres in 2008. He's a left-handed-hitter who remains an extreme platoon player, evidenced by a putrid .580 OPS against southpaws. But despite his familiarity as a not-great-but-not-awful fantasy option and someone who’s averaged 26 steals over the past three years, he’s still available in plenty of leagues. He’s never going to be a must-grab, but a hot hand is a hot hand, and the stolen bases alone give him should merit him consideration in five-outfield leagues.

Recommendation: Pass in standard mixed leagues, but pick him up while he’s hot everywhere else.

Jeff Locke | Pittsburgh Pirates | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership; 8.5 percent ESPN; 44 percent CBS
YTD: 39.2 IP / 4.88 FIP / 4.99 K/9 / 4.31 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 154 IP / 4.61 FIP / 6.05 K/9 / 3.92 BB/9

When I saw the southpaw’s CBS ownership jump by more than 20 points in the past week, I figured he was ripe for a spin in the waiver wire. After all, Pittsburgh is about as good a place to stay anonymous as there is in baseball, and perhaps this guy is the real deal looking for just a little positive PR to get his ownership going.

Locke, 25, was drafted in the second round by the Braves in 2006, and was traded, along with two other players, in the 2009 deal between Atlanta and Pittsburgh for Nate McLouth. In the minors, Locke pitched well, compiling a better than 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, a fine 1.26 WHIP and an ability to get strikeouts. Armed with a fastball that doesn’t zoom beyond the low-90s, the Princeton grad was never tabbed as a spectacular prospect, but is expected to hang around the majors as a back-of-the-rotation hurler on a good team.

So what explains the jump in his ownership? Well, a 2.95 ERA certainly doesn’t scare away prospective fantasy owners, and a 3-1 record in seven starts isn’t half bad. Unfortunately, that’s where the good news ends. Want proof? Take your pick: A 4.84 xFIP. A crazy 81.5 percent strand rate. A 21 percent balls in play average. A 7.1 swinging strike rate. Yeah, seven starts is not a gigantic sample size, but it’s not a trend that portends a happy ending, either.

I’m not here to discredit Locke as a big leaguer or wish a pox upon his house, and if he can continue to pound the strike zone and limit walks, I don’t think a 4 ERA with a 6 K/9 is impossible by the time 2013 is over. But a market correction is right around the corner, and when that happens, you’ll want to be someplace else, preferably wearing a helmet while nestled in a concrete bunker.

Recommendation: Stay away in mixed leagues.

Denard Span | Washington Nationals | OF | 19 percent Yahoo ownership; 23.9 percent ESPN; 56 percent CBS
YTD: 151 PA / .277 / .344 / .350 with 0 HR and 5 SB
ZiPS updated: 595 PA / .275 / .335 / .369 with 3 HR and 18 SB

Can I ask a dumb question? Why is the leadoff hitter on arguably the best team in the National League hanging around the waiver wire in so many leagues? What’s wrong with a guy who steals bases, scores runs and posts a decent batting average?

Well, past history, for starters: Fantasy owners went ga-ga over Span’s 97 runs, .311 average and 10.4 percent walk rate back in 2009. But they then watched with abject disappointment as his on-base percentage collapsed in subsequent years, a situation compounded by a nasty concussion he suffered in 2011 and a shoulder injury last year that limited him to 128 games. Even after a 3.6 WAR season last year, his wOBA was off by more than 30 points from his 2009 season, and his stock entering 2013 was nowhere near what it was back in his salad days.

Then there’s the dearth of power. We’re talking about just 23 home runs over more than 2,800 career plate appearances (none so far this year) and despite once leading the league in triples, his career ISO barely breaks .100. For Span to be considered a mixed-league outfielder, he needs to keep up his production in his three categories to offset the damage he’ll do to an owner’s batting average and home runs.

So far this year, I’d say the results are mixed. His on-base percentage is acceptable but not ideal, as is his stolen base total, the byproduct of just six attempts. Span’s also suffering from a nasty 19.2 percent infield flyball rate, which will come back down to earth soon enough, and a 14.6 percent strikeout rate that stands to regress back to his career average. As for his health, he had appeared in all but three of the Nationals’ games entering this season, so there’s little reason to believe he’s not 100 percent.

And therein lies the key to Span’s fantasy value: Staying on the field. Assuming a baseline batting average of .280, he could very well produce 90 runs hitting atop a lineup that will produce better as the season unfolds, and I don’t think a return to 20 stolen bases is out of the question. I realize Span, a solid defender, is much more valuable in real life than in fantasy, and in a perfect world, an owner would prefer a more well-rounded stolen base producer than him. But Span does enough things well to justify a hike in his ownership levels, and as the summer progresses, I think that will happen.

Recommendation: It’s time to think about Span in standard mixed leagues again.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Karl de Vries 2013-05-15T07:08:35+00:00