The Hardball Times Live

A baseball card mystery: Ontiveros and Schmidt

Bruce Markusen — 2012-02-10T08:15:15+00:00

If you’re a collector looking to acquire Mike Schmidt’s 1976 Topps card in mint condition, you’ll have to pay a fairly stiff price.

But if you simply want Schmidt on any card from that set, and want it at a bargain rate, just pick up Steve Ontiveros’ card. The card shows Ontiveros, wearing a cap and no helmet, cutting the third base bag and making a hard charge for home. We can clearly see Schmidt off to the right, looking toward the outfield for an impending throw that may or may not be too late to record an out at the plate.

Schmidt’s presence on the card doesn’t do much for the value of a ’76 Ontiveros, but it does provide an interesting juxtaposition between a Hall of Fame player and a player of the run-of-the-mill variety. Schmidt, one of the greatest players I’ve ever had the privilege of watching, is universally regarded as the finest third baseman in the history of the major leagues. Other than striking out with some frequency, he had no tangible weakness in his diversified game.

Ontiveros, whom I also saw play, was not anywhere near that caliber, but he was not a bad player either. Also a third baseman, he put up an .813 OPS for the Cubs in 1977, batted .274 lifetime, and totaled more walks (309) than he did strikeouts (290). On the other hand, he had very little power, hitting only 24 home runs in over 2,500 plate appearances, and was not a particularly smooth fielder at the hot corner.

So if you were looking for a third baseman to play for your team in the mid-1970s, you were far more likely to end up with a Steven Robert Ontiveros than a Michael Jack Schmidt.

When two players appear on the same card, it also provides us with an opportunity for a baseball card mystery. In this case, the question is obvious: In what game was this photograph taken? And was Ontiveros safe or out at the plate? Since it’s a 1976 card, the photo was most likely taken during the 1975 season. Schmidt is wearing his home whites, so the game must have been played at Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia. Let’s narrow it down a little further: The Giants played a grand total of six games at The Vet in 1975.

So who will be the first to come up with the answer?

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.

20,000 days since Herb Score’s injury

Chris Jaffe — 2012-02-08T08:34:15+00:00

20,000 days ago, a promising young career came to a screeching halt.

It was May 7, 1957, and the Cleveland Indians hosted the New York Yankees. On the mound for the home team was Herb Score, one of the brightest young stars in the game. Two years earlier, a then 21-year-old Score had a national coming out party, fanning 16 batters in a 4-1 victory.

In his 1955 rookie season, he went 16-10 with a league-leading 245 strikeouts. Only one other pitcher in the AL struck out over 160. He averaged 9.7 K/9 in a league that averaged 4.4.

The next year, Score was even better, enjoying his first 20-win season while leading the league in shutouts, ERA+ and, of course, strikeouts. His 263 punchouts that year were 71 more than runner up Billy Pierce.

He was so well thought of that before the 1957 season began, the rival Red Sox offered the Indians $1,000,000 for Score—and Cleveland turned down Boston. That’s how highly his team thought of him.

The early going in 1957 made the Cleveland front office look smart. In his first four games, Score was 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 35.1 innings. In his wins, he’d allowed one run in 18 innings. Even in his other games he was impressive. He fanned 10 in 11 frames in his only loss, and in a no-decision he fanned 12 while recording 19 outs. Not bad.

That led up to the game occurring 20,000 days ago. Against the defending world champion Yankees, Score quickly dispatched leadoff hitter Hank Bauer on a groundout and then faced Gil McDougald.

It was the at-bat that nearly ended Score’s career and ruined his promise.

McDougald made solid contact with a Score offering and sent a screaming liner right back up the middle—and right into Score’s eye socket. He was bloodied and suffered several broken bones in his face.

Eventually Score recovered, but he would not pitch again that season. Early in 1958, it looked like he was on the way back as he threw a complete-game shutout with 13 strikeouts against the White Sox on April 23, 1958. Then, in his next start against Washington, Score injured his arm and had to change his delivery.

Was it the eye injury that ruined him or the less dramatic arm injury? Normally, the arm means the most, but how did missing 11 months due to an eye injury affect his arm strength? Score probably was headed for an arm injury even without his ghastly eye socket injury. He not only struck out a lot of batters, but he walked tons, as well. In his first start in 195,7 he was in double digits in walks and strikeouts, for instance. That’s a lot of mileage on an arm.

Regardless of what might’ve happened, what did happen is that a line drive shattered Score’s eye socket, and a once promising career never really lived up to its hope after that. And that shattering line drive happened exactly 20,000 days ago.

Oh – and there’s one little side note from that game. After Score left, Cleveland had to put veteran Bob Lemon in to pitch. He lasted the rest of the game and his 8.1 innings pitched proved to be the longest relief appearance of his career. He posted the win as the Indians topped the Yankees, 3-2.

Aside from that, plenty of other baseball events celebrate their “day-versary” or anniversary today. Here they are, with the better ones in bold if you’d prefer to just skim the list.

Day-versaries

5,000 days since Roger Clemens wins his 20th consecutive game, the last one in an impressive winning streak. During this period, here are his numbers: 30 GS, 5 CG, 211.1 IP, 161 H, 68 R, 63 ER, 73 BB, 240 K, and a 2.68 ERA. Oh, and of course a 20-0 record.

6,000 days since Cal Ripken makes history by appearing in his 2,130th consecutive game, tying Lou Gehrig for the all-time record. In the contest, the Orioles belt four homers in the second inning, including three in a row at one point.

6,000 days since the Astros and Reds have a brawl that will lead to a half-dozen suspensions. Both managers will be suspended, as well as Doug Drabek, Ron Gant, Pat Borders, and Xavier Hernandez. Houston wins the game handily, 10-1.

6,000 days since Greg Maddux tosses his fourth consecutive complete game, something that rarely happens in the 1990s.

6,000 days since John Jaha belts the 10th grand slam by a Brewer batter on the season, tying the 1938 Tigers and 1987 Yankees for a one-year club record.

6,000 days since Matt Lawton makes his big league debut with the Twins.

6,000 days since shortstop Rich Aurilia makes his big league debut.

7,000 days since the Atlanta Braves land one of the greatest free agent signings of all-time—arguably the greatest, in fact. They sign defending Cy Young Award winner Greg Maddux.

7,000 days since the Cubs sign Randy Myers. He’s a great reliever, but the Cubs clearly lose more than they gained 7,000 days ago.

7,000 days since the Boston Red Sox sign longtime NL outfielder Andre Dawson as a free agent.

7,000 days since Marlins club president Carl Barger dies of a heart attack at age 62. The team has yet to play a game, but they’ll retire a number in his honor.

7,000 days since the Marlins sign free agent Fred McGriff.

7,000 days since the Royals and Expos engage in a four-player trade that sends Mark Gardner to Kansas City and Jeff Shaw to Montreal.

7,000 days since the Dodgers sign free agent reliever Todd Worrell.

7,000 days since Reds owner Marge Schott apologizes for inflammatory comments she’d made publicly.

9,000 days since Alan Trammell hits his 100th career home run.

9,000 days since the Angels sign aging pitcher Jerry Reuss.

9,000 days since the Astros trade longtime third baseman Phil Garner to the Dodgers.

9,000 days since Orel Hershiser sets a personal best by striking out 14 batters in a game. It’s the only time he fans more than 11 in one contest. His numbers for the day: 10 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 14 K. He gets the loss when he surrenders the winning run in the 11th inning.

25,000 days since Arky Vaughan gets his 2,000th career hit. It takes his just 1,658 games.

30,000 days since Red Sox manager Bill Carrigan quits. It’s the second time he’s left the team, and it ends his managerial career.

40,000 days since the birth of Cardinals pitcher Wild Bill Hallahan.

Along these lines, at some point today it’ll be 1,000,000,0000 seconds since Hall of Fame starting pitcher Rube Marquard dies at age 90. Some point today also will mark one billions seconds since Carlton Fisk’s 1,000th hit, and Vance Law’s big league debut.

Anniversaries

1867 Bug Holliday, outfielder, is born.

1887 The National League’s St. Louis Maroons franchise is sold to a group from Indianapolis for $12,000. They get the players in the deal, and the former Maroons are now the Hoosiers.

1915 Former Cubs pitcher Ed Reulbach signs with the Federal League’s Newark Pepper club.

1920 Babe Ruth asks the Red Sox for $15,000 of the money they made by selling him to the Yankees. Ruth later tells the press of the Sox owner, “The son of a bitch wouldn’t even see me.”

1926 The AL announces that, despite a recent joint-league decision by the Rules Committee to allow hurlers to use a rosin bag on the mound, AL hurlers can’t do that. (The league will backtrack and reverse itself two months into the year).

1932 The A’s release Hall of Fame pitcher Waite Hoyt.

1933 Brooklyn trades longtime star pitcher Dazzy Vance to the Cardinals.

1940 The Red Sox sell pitcher Elden Auker to the Browns.

1941 The Tigers release former Indians star Earl Averill.

1942 Fritz Peterson, pitcher and wife-swapper, is born.

1946 The Braves release aging veteran Joe Medwick.

1956 The Senators and Yankees engage in a seven-player trade that sends Whitey Herzog to Washington and Mickey McDermott to New York.

1956 Boston purchases Pumpsie Green. He’ll later become their first black big league player.

1956 Connie Mack dies at age 93.

1956 Long Tom Hughes, pitcher from the early 20th century, dies.

1962 The Federal Trade Commission accuses Topps Chewing Gum of illegally monopolizing the baseball card industry. This case will stretch on seemingly forever until a 1980 court decision opens the playing field for Fleer and Donruss.

1965 Ray Kremer, 1930s pitcher, dies.

1973 MLB announces that “early bird” spring training camps are cancelled until the collective bargaining agreement with the players’ union is concluded.

1978 Milwaukee purchases hard-hitting centerfielder Gorman Thomas from the Rangers.

1982 The Dodgers trade longtime second baseman Davey Lopes to the A’s.

1983 Commissioner Bowie Kuhn orders former Yankees great Mickey Mantle to cut ties with Atlantic City casinos. Mantle will refuse, causing him to become persona non grata in MLB for the rest of Kuhn’s tenure as commissioner.

1995 Atlanta signs free agent reliever Gregg Olson.

1994 The White Sox sign amateur free agent Carlos Lee, “El Caballo.”

1995 A new era begins as the Dodgers sign Japanese pitcher Hideo Nomo. He’s only the second Japanese player in North American history, but his signing begins a consistent stretch of NPB baseball players crossing the ocean to come here.

1995 The Giants release outfielder Darryl Strawberry.

2001 The Dodgers sign free agent LOOGY Jesse Orosco.

2008 Baltimore trades fragile starting pitcher Erik Bedard to the Mariners for a slew of players: Adam Jones, Kameron Mickolio, George Sherill, Chris Tillman, and Tony Butler.

2008 The A’s sign free agent reliever Keith Foulke.

2009 Texas signs free agent Andruw Jones.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.

A baseball card mystery: Bill Sudakis and the strange light

Bruce Markusen — 2012-02-07T18:27:15+00:00

Diehard Yankee fans of a certain age will remember Bill Sudakis. Tall, muscular, and blond-haired, Sudakis brought a defined and distinctive look to the baseball field.

He had the appearance of a California surfer. He also reminded me of the actor David Soul, who famously played Detective Ken Hutchinson in the 1970s cop drama, “Starsky and Hutch.”

As a ballplayer, Sudakis was a journeyman. At one time, he appeared to be a star third baseman in-the-making, part of a young and promising Dodgers team known as “The Mod Squad.” But the Dodgers had depth at third base and felt that Sudakis could withstand the strains of catching, so they tried him behind the plate.

Unfortunately, the Dodgers were wrong; Sudakis developed knee trouble. He also struggled in making the transition to catching, particularly when it came to throwing out opposing baserunners. In 38 games behind the plate in 1970, Sudakis threw out six percent of base stealers. That’s no misprint, six percent.

During the spring of 1972, the Dodgers tried to slip the switch-hitting Sudakis through waivers, but the Mets put in a claim, sent the waiver fee to the Dodgers, and made him part of their bench. Continuing knee problems derailed his time with the Mets, who ended up trading him to Texas.

From there, he returned to New York, this time with the Yankees, where he became a third-string catcher behind Thurman Munson and Rick Dempsey.

Sudakis' tenure with the Yankees would become memorable, not for his role as a utility man-DH, but for a vicious fistfight with Dempsey at the famed Pfister Hotel in Milwaukee. Late in the 1974 season, Sudakis and Dempsey engaged in a knockdown brawl, even launching pieces of hotel furniture at each other like flying projectiles. (According to one report, one of the combatants threw a lamp as if it were a javelin.)

Remarkably, neither man suffered a serious injury. A peace-loving Bobby Murcer broke up the fisticuffs, only to suffer a broken pinky finger in the process. The loss of Murcer, one of the best players on the team, ended up costing the Yankees, who were desperately trying to win the American League East on the final weekend of the season.

By the time that his 1975 Topps card came out, Sudakis was no longer a Yankee. Upset with him over his antics at the Pfister, the Yankees traded him to the Angels in a wintertime deal for relief pitcher Skip Lockwood.

Sudakis’ 1975 Topps card has always intrigued me, especially in regard to the lighting. I cannot tell whether this photograph was taken at the height of a sunny afternoon or during a night game.

At first glance, it looks like a night game, with the bright light around the plate magnified by a stanchion located up above. Topps, however, almost never took pictures of players during night games. Almost all of their photographs were taken during the daytime, either before or during afternoon games.

So perhaps this is a case of the cameraman snapping the shot of Sudakis while looking into the sun, making the light around home plate appear almost artificial in its brightness.

The other question has to do with the location. I cannot figure out which ballpark provided the setting for this photograph. I’m tempted to say Texas, or perhaps Baltimore, but I’m not sure. Or maybe it was taken in Milwaukee, the site of Sudakis’ great Yankee infamy.

So where did this take place? And was it taken during the night or the daytime?

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.

20,000 days since Hank Aaron’s worst game

Chris Jaffe — 2012-02-07T06:29:15+00:00

Everyone has their bad days on the job. Everyone has terrible days on the job. Thus it’s no surprise that the best baseball players have absolutely rotten games. And 20,000 days ago, one of the game’s best had maybe his worst game ever

It was Hammering Hank Aaron, playing for the Milwaukee Braves against the Brooklyn Dodgers on May 6, 1957.

He should’ve been feeling good heading into the day. The day before he’d gone 4-for-5 with a double and a homer. Two days before that he’d missed the cycle by a single. The day before that he’d gone 5-for-6. Yeah, that’s pretty good. But all yins must have their yang, and today would be that day for Aaron.

It started off generically enough. In the first inning, he harmlessly flew out against a 20-year-old Don Drysdale, making just his 15th big league start.

Two innings later Aaron got another chance against Drysdale. With the Braves trailing 3-1 and a runner on first, Aaron represented the tying run. However, this time he helplessly fanned on four pitches. Well, it’s not an ideal start but he still had plenty of time left.

In the fifth, it was still a 3-1 Dodger leader when Aaron came up in a crucial situation. The Braves had two on and two out against a struggling Drysdale. This was Aaron's chance to do some damage. He quickly fell behind, no balls to two strikes, but then battled Drysdale for several pitches evening the count. Then Aaron hit one into play – only to see it turn into an inning-ending double play. No, that can’t be what he hoped would happen.

Later, in the seventh, Aaron came up a fourth time against Drysdale, and again it was a crucial situation. It proved to be the highlight of Aaron’s day. With runners on second and third and two out, Drysdale pitched around Aaron, walking him to load the bases. The Dodgers went to their bullpen and got out of the jam.

And on the game went. In the ninth, Aaron came up for the fifth time on the day. At this point, the game was tied 3-3 and Milwaukee had the winning run on first base with two out. Aaron couldn’t help him though, and an easy fly out ended the inning. To date, he’d come up with six runners on base, advanced none, and driven in none. He’d also ended two innings.

But the game went into extra innings, and wouldn’t you know it—in the 11th inning Aaron came up. (As it happens, it’s the sixth straight odd-numbered inning for him to appear in.) Again there were runners on base—first and second this time—and again there were two outs. Aaron grounded out to second base to end the inning. He was now 0-for-5 on the day with a walk.

Both teams scored once in the 12th, and the game soldiered on. It wouldn’t be an odd-numbered inning without an Aaron appearance, and sure enough he came up with two out and a runner on first in the 13th frame. This time he meekly tapped one back to pitcher Roger Craig for the ground out.

A Dodger homer in the 14th ensured there wouldn’t be another chance for Aaron to come up.

Here was Aaron’s day: seven times up, one walk, but no hits in seven plate appearances. There was at least one runner on base in six of his seven plate appearances – nine runners hoping to score in all. None of them scored, and Aaron never advanced a single one. He ended four separate innings with an out.

Yeah, that’s a bad day. He’d have four other 0-for-6 games, but this was the only one in which he also hit into a double play along the way. In all but one of them he also drew a walk (and in the remaining game he reached base on error, stole a base, and scored a run). In all, it was a perfectly miserable day that saw him blow multiple chances to help his team win.

But, being Hank Aaron, the day’s disappointment left no lingering effect. The next day he was 2-for-4 with a triple. He wound up winning the NL MVP that year.

Aside from that, many other events celebrate their anniversary or “day-versary” today. Here they are, with the better ones in bold if you’d prefer to skim.

Day-versaries

1,000 days since the first reversal of a home run call since baseball began officially using replay for home runs. An Adam LaRoche homer against St. Louis is overturned.

1,000 days since Gerardo Parra of the Diamondbacks homers in his first big league at bat. He becomes the 100th player to do it.

1,000 days since Ken Griffey Jr. endures his worst game ever, according to WPA. He is 0-for-5 with two strikeouts and a GIDP as Seattle falls to Texas 6-5. His WPA on the day: -0.460.

2,000 days since Ken Griffey Jr. sets a personal record. Against Jeff Weaver, he homers on the 12th pitch of an at bat, his longest battle to result in a dinger.

3,000 days since the Cardinals trade first baseman Tino Martinez to Tampa.

4,000 days since the Dodgers trade Devon White to Milwaukee for Marquis Grissom.

5,000 days since Cliff Floyd loses a home run. Though replay won’t officially be around for 4,000 more days or so, umpire Frank Pulli uses it anyway to deprive Floyd of a homer, as his Marlins end up losing 2-1 to the Cardinals.

6,000 days since Kirby Puckett enjoys his 13th and final multi-home run game.

6,000 days since Jorge Posada makes his big league debut. Less impressively, Mark Loretta also debuts on this day.

6,000 days since Albuquerque Dukes player Ron Maurer plays all nine positions during a 4-2 loss to Las Vegas.

6,000 days since Robin Ventura hits two grand slams in one game as the White Sox thrash Texas, 14-3. In all, Ventura is 3-for-5 with a double, two homers, a walk, and eight RBIs.

7,000 days since a busy day of free agent signings. The big news is Barry Bonds signing with the Giants, ending his days in Pittsburgh. In other news, the Marlins land Charlie Hough, Kansas City gets David Cone, the White Sox get what’s left of Dave Stieb, and Toronto signs Dave Stewart and also trades Kelly Gruber to the Angels.

10,000 days since George Brett hits his second and final career grand slam.

10,000 days since Baltimore’s Jim Traber makes an interesting big league debut. His on-field performance is nothing noteworthy, but he sings the National Anthem before the game.

10,000 days since Reggie Jackson lays down his first sacrifice bunt in 12 years. He’ll never do it again.

15,000 days since baseball holds its 1971 winter draft. The most notable players drafted include: Phil Garner by the A’s, John Wathan by the Royals, and Jerry Remy by the Angels. Those guys will all sign with those clubs. The most prominent guys drafted who will not sign on this occasion include: Roy Smalley, who the Red Sox drafted; Rich Dauer, who the A’s drafted, and Rick Langford, who the Cardinals drafted.

25,000 days since Joe Medwick sets a personal best by driving in six runs in one game. He’s 3-for-5 with a double and home run as his Giants torch the Dodgers, 12-0.

25,000 days ago Sweet Lou Piniella is born.

Also, at some point today it’ll be 1,000,000,000 seconds since Gary Carter legs out his second and final career inside the park home run.

Anniversaries

1876 Pat Moran, one of the best managers not in the Hall of Fame, is born.

1881 The Providence Grays sign free agent pitcher Old Hoss Radbourn. This is a good move. A really good move.

1899 Earl Whitehill, 200 game winner, is born.

1899 Now that the Baltimore Orioles and Brooklyn Dodgers have the same owners, the best Baltimore players are sent to the bigger city. Joe Kelley, Wee Willie Keeler, Hughie Jennings, and manager Ned Hanlon all head north. The only stars left behind in Baltimore are John McGraw and Wilbert Robinson.

1905 In Lynn, Massachusetts A’s pitcher Rube Waddell prevents a fire by carrying a burning stove out of a store and throwing it in a snow bank.

1908 The St. Louis Browns purchase the highly talented by mentally erratic pitcher Rube Waddell from the A’s.

1921 The Chicago Cubs release former star pitcher Claude Hendrix.

1937 Juan Pizarro, pitcher, is born.

1942 The Braves purchase Ernie Lombardi from the Reds.

1949 Joe DiMaggio makes financial history, becoming the first ballplayer to sign a $100,000/year contract.

1950 Starting pitcher Burt Hooton is born.

1953 Dan Quisenberry, brilliant 1980s reliever, is born.

1957 Carney Lansford, one of the only players to participate in the Little League World Series and the actual World Series, is born.

1958 The Dodgers officially become the “Los Angeles Dodgers, Inc.”

1959 White Sox president Dorothy Rigney agrees to sell the team to Bill Veeck.

1959 Hall of Fame second baseman Nap Lajoie dies at age 84.

1962 Boston hires ex-Indianapolis Clowns scout Ed Scott as their first full-time black scout.

1979 The Dodgers sign what’s left of Andy Messersmith. He left the team a few years earlier at the very beginning of baseball free agency.

1985 Baseball owners approve of auto dealer Marge Schott gaining controlling interest in the Reds. She had been a limited partner since 1981. This decision won’t end well for anyone.

1994 The Indians sign free agent catcher Tony Pena.

1994 The White Sox sign basketball star Michael Jordan to a minor league contract.

1996 Dave Winfield, 3,000 hit man, officially retires.

1997 The White Sox sign free agent swingman Danny Darwin.

1999 El Presidente Dennis Martinez announces his retirement.

2005 Detroit signs free agent outfielder Magglio Ordonez. This works out pretty well for them.

2005 Milwaukee signs free agent Jeff Cirillo.

2008 Brian McNamee gives a seven-hour deposition to the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform about performance enhancing drugs in baseball.

2009 Sports Illustrated breaks a story that Alex Rodriguez once tested positive for steroids in 2003.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.

Super at the right time

Joe Distelheim — 2012-02-06T13:52:15+00:00

The message may be: Never give up.

Or perhaps it's: We live in an age where mediocrity is good enough.

Over the past year in sports:
{exp:list_maker}The New York Giants won the Super Bowl after barely making the playoffs with a 9-7 regular-season record.
Alabama won the college football championship, such as it is, after not even qualifying for the Southeastern Conference championship game.
The Dallas Mavericks won the NBA championship after finishing second in their division.
Connecticut won the NCAA basketball tournament after going 9-9 in the Big East.
And finally, getting to our sport, the St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series after barely making the postseason, not winning their division and having only the eighth-best regular season record in the majors. {/exp:list_maker}You want purity or parity? You decide.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.

Would the Nationals consider holding back Strasburg?

Brad Johnson — 2012-02-06T09:25:15+00:00

The signing of Edwin Jackson presents the Nationals with the kind of problem that every club strives for—they have more starting pitchers than rotation slots. They actually have a LOT more starting pitchers than spots. Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and Jackson are all locks while Chien-Ming Wang, John Lannan, and Ross Detwiler will battle for the last spot. Tom Gorzelanny makes for an above-replacement-level also ran.

The Nationals have another rotation-related problem. They are on the cusp of relevance. Their improvements this offseason should put them within shouting distance of the Wild Card (especially if there are two in 2012). Few will be surprised if the Nationals are playing for a playoff berth when the calendar turns to September.

That's not the problem, though. The problem is, their ace, Strasburg, is expected to be on a fairly strict innings cap in 2012 that will expire right as the team is pushing for the playoffs.

But what if the Nationals solved one problem with another by optioning Strasburg to extended spring training, using two of Lannan, Wang, and Detwiler through April, and then activating Strasburg once his innings cap stretches into October?

There are certain attractive elements to that plan. While a win is a win no matter what month it comes in, knowing Strasburg is available late in the season to stifle the competition could serve as a rallying point for the team. And the team's financial planners probably like the idea of Strasburg pitching in meaningful September games in front of a full house. The Nationals traditionally draw poorly in September.

More importantly, Strasburg would be available to pitch in the postseason. The club would find it hard to resist the urge to use Strasburg—innings cap or no—but a delayed start to 2012 means he could throw deep into games against the Phillies, Diamondbacks, or whatever other team reaches the postseason.

Of course, many of you out in reader land are shaking your head, and you are probably right to do so. Despite certain alluring qualities, this plan has its share of problems.

To the best of my knowledge, no club has tried this before. The Nationals could and should be wary about wading into uncharted waters with their generational talent. It's also unclear if the club could successfully run Strasburg through a delayed spring training. They would have to design a unique, delayed schedule, which could have unexpected consequences.

Holding him back also changes the club's incentives. If Strasburg reaches his innings cap in late August, the club is more likely to stick with the original plan of shutting him down. If he reached his limit in late September, the club would have an awfully difficult time shutting him down right before the playoffs.

The Nationals could always thumb their nose at their innings cap. Research has repeatedly shown that the Verducci Effect is largely hogwash. Clubs probably shouldn't limit their pitchers based purely on innings, but rather on a robust personal evaluation of each player. Warning signs like reduced velocity or movement, physical fatigue, and release point consistency should be monitored closely. By the end of August, the Nationals may be satisfied that Strasburg has the physical durability to continue into October.

The Nationals may consider such an idea when trying to solve their two "problems." Or it may never cross their minds. At the end of the day, it would be a shame for the Nationals to reach the postseason for the first time only to have their best pitcher unavailable because of an innings cap.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.

10,000 days: 500th homer for Mr. October

Chris Jaffe — 2012-02-03T06:34:15+00:00

Ten thousand days ago, Reggie Jackson made a bit of baseball history for himself. On Sept. 17, 1984, the most feared slugger of his generation did something long expected of him, bashing his 500th career home run.

It came in the seventh inning off current Padres manager Bud Black. It was the only bad pitch Black threw that night, as he led the Royals to an easy 10-1 win over Jackson’s Angels.

That shot, though, made Jackson the 13th member of the 500 home run club. There are currently 25 members, so exactly as many men have joined the club since Reggie Jackson did as joined it before him.

Perhaps you wouldn’t expect that. After all, there have been only 27 seasons since Jackson hit No. 500. But it’s worth noting there have been nearly as many homers hit from Opening Day 1985 as beforehand. In those last 27 seasons, baseball has had 120,775 homers, which is 46 percent of all homers hit in baseball history.

Then again, maybe you would expect there to be that many homers hit in recent times. There is expansion, PEDs, and possibly juiced ball (league-wide home rates went up rather oddly prior to the 1998 home run race and all that).

It’s also worth noting that the upsurge in members of the 500 home run club actually isn’t a new thing. It also happened during Jackson’s career. A month before Jackson debuted, Mickey Mantle became the sixth member of the club. Four years and four months later, Frank Robinson became the 11th member. The club more than doubled in five seasons with Mantle, Robinson, Ernie Banks, Eddie Mathews, Harmon Killebrew and Hank Aaron all joining it. And Willie Mays entered the club just a little before them, too.

As for Reggie, he ended his career with 563 dingers. His favorite victim was former White Sox knuckleballer Wilbur Wood, who surrendered eight blasts to Jackson.

Jackson’s 563 home runs included 10 walk-off homers and four inside-the-park shots. In fact, one homer was both a walk-off and an inside-the-park homer. That came against Boston’s Sonny Siebert in the second game of a doubleheader on Aug. 22, 1971. It was the last of his career inside-the-park homers.

Jackson also belted six pinch-hit homers in his career. Two of them were grand slams. Once pinch-hit slam came off Chicago’s Terry Forster on Aug. 22, 1976—exactly five years after his inside-the-park walk-off blast. Reggie really liked Aug. 22, I suppose. In all, he blasted 11 slams, pinch-hit or otherwise.

Despite that, according to WPA, his clutchest home run was neither a grand slam nor a walk-off home run. It was a three-run homer in the top of the ninth with two outs and his Angels trailing Toronto 6-4 on June 18, 1983. That gave California a 7-6 lead and gave Jackson a value of 0.724 WPA with one swing.

It’s interesting that his best WPA home run would come against a Blue Jay. In general Jackson had trouble homering off Toronto pitchers. He faced longtime Blue Jay Jim Clancy 62 times without ever homering against him. That’s the most plate appearances he ever had against a pitcher without a homer. The runner-up with 55 PA is Dave Stieb, Clancy’s longtime teammate.

Regardless, Jackson did get to 500 homers, and it happened exactly 10,000 days ago.

Aside from that, many other events celebrate their anniversary or “day-versary” today. Here they are, with the better ones in bold if you’d prefer to just skim the list.

Day-versaries

1,000 days since Zack Greinke loses 1-0 and sees his ERA rise to 0.51.

4,000 days since Bill Rigney, longtime baseball manager, dies.

5,000 days since Cleveland signs amateur free agent Willy Taveras.

6,000 days since Paul O’Neill hits three home runs in one game for the Yankees.

6,000 days since Mike Moore appears in his final game.

9,000 days since Hall of Fame manager Dick Williams wins his 1,500 big league game. He’s the 13th manager to do so. His record: 1,500-1,366.

9,000 days since Mike Schmidt collects his 2,000th hit. He does it in style, too, with three home runs in this game. It’s the third time he’s had at least three homers in one game.

9,000 days since the Reds release veteran pitcher Jerry Reuss.

10,000 days since Harold Baines belts three home runs in one game for the second time in his career.

15,000 days since Elmer Flick, Hall of Famer, dies.

20,000 days since Hank Aaron gets five hits in a game for the second of three times in his career.

20,000 days since Roy Campanella experiences his worst WPA game: -0.617 WPA. He is 0-for-7 with a K, and a GIDP as the Cards top the Dodgers 3-2 in 16 innings.

20,000 days since Robin Roberts fans 13 batters in one game, his personal best. His line: 9 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 13 K. He beats the Cubs. 4-2.

25,000 days since the A’s lose their 20th consecutive game. They lose this one in the bottom of the ninth to the White Sox. Then they win the second game of the doubleheader to end the losing skim, 8-1.

25,000 days since Carl Hubbell appears in his final game.

Anniversaries

1885 Slim Sallee, pitcher, is born.

1886 Former pitcher and future Hall of Famer Albert Spalding opens his sporting good company with $800.

1890 Hall of Fame executive Larry MacPhail is born.

1898 The Reds trade Red Ehret, Dummy Hoy, and Claude Ritchey to Louisville for Bill Hall.

1900 Rival forces vie to claim Union Park Ball Grounds in Baltimore. John Grounds men camp around a fire they created at third base. Ned Hanlon’s guys group at first base.

1910 The Reds trade Miller Huggins and two other players to the Cardinals for a pair of players.

1920 Rube Foster forms the Negro National Baseball League.

1934 The Cardinals and Browns agree to cease broadcasting their home games on the radio in hopes of building their attendance.

1938 The Dodgers sign free agent outfielder Kiki Cuyler.

1942 Baseball owners okay President Roosevelt’s suggestion for more night games. There will be 14 per year for the 11 teams with lights, which is double the previous limit.

1947 Joe Coleman, pitcher, is born.

1952 Fred Lynn, center fielder, is born.

1954 The Milwaukee Braves release Walker Cooper.

1961 The Yankees say they’ll stay at the same spring training hotel despite that fact that it won’t allow blacks there, stating “We don’t run the state of Florida.”

1977 The Phillies sign free agent second baseman Davey Johnson.

1978 F. J. “Steve” O’Neill buys the Indians.

1979 Minnesota trades veteran infielder Rod Carew to the Angels.

1983 Baltimore signs free agent defensive specialists Aurelio Rodriguez.

1986 The Players Association files a grievance against the owners, charging collusion.

1987 The Expos trade Jeff Reardon to the Twins.

1989 Bill White named the new NL president.

1990 Darryl Strawberry is admitted to an alcohol treatment center in New York City.

1993 Marge Schott is fined $250,000 and banned from day-to-day operation of the Reds for a year.

1996 The White Sox sign free agent pitcher Kevin Tapani.

1998 Brian Cashman becomes the new Yankees GM.

1999 After 16 years, the Mets don’t ask announcer Tim McCarver to return to their broadcast booth. Tom Seaver will replace him.

2006 The Padres sign free agent catcher Mike Piazza.

2006 The Giants rename their stadium AT&T Park.

2011 The Yankees sign free agent pitcher Freddy Garcia.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.

Edwin Jackson finally signs

Matt Filippi — 2012-02-02T22:35:15+00:00

Fans had been waiting patiently for the last chip to fall. All of the big free agents had signed (Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, C.J. Wilson, etc.) except for one. That one was Edwin Jackson, and he signed with the Washington Nationals yesterday for one year worth somewhere around $10 million. At first glance, this looks like a pretty good deal for the Nats.

First, let’s take a look at it from Jackson’s point of view. No teams were biting on his original request for five years and $60 million, and a lot of teams didn’t even want him for three years. Despite the small amount of very good starting pitching on the market, teams didn’t want to overpay for someone as inconsistent as E-Jax.

His strikeout and walk rates seem to fluctuate by about one per nine innings every season, and despite his FIP being in the threes both of the last two seasons, he’s still a gamble because of his unpredictable inputs. He was still able to get good money for the lone year that he signed for, and he’s able to hit the market again next offseason at the still ripe age of 29 for hopefully a longer and more lucrative deal.

This all being said, the Nationals definitely got the better part of the deal. They are getting a 28-year-old pitcher who has made 30-plus starts each of the last five seasons and whose numbers are trending upward. Jackson will join a very young rotation headlined by Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmermann. This should prove to be a very strong staff, and it gives the Nationals some pitching.

With a full rotation, it’s not a far-fetched idea that they could move a starter and turn it into something else. I’m not sure how much they can get back for John Lannan since he’s not a high strikeout guy, but he could definitely have some value to a team that needs a back-end piece.

With a solid team, a weak National League, and another wild card being added to October, the Nats definitely can’t be counted out, so expect them to contend for a playoff spot in 2012. The great part of this deal is that Washington gets Jackson as an innings eater, and they don’t have to worry about him sustaining his strikeout or walk numbers over a long period of time because it’s only a one-year pact.

It’s a good move all around, and now with the last big fish of the offseason being fried, we can finally look forward to the start of spring training.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.

THT Forecasts - 2012 fantasy price guides

Greg Tamer — 2012-02-02T17:01:15+00:00

In addition to the Oliver database, reports, projections, and watch lists, THT Forecasts also has a fantasy price guide that you can customize with your league specifications (although note that not all stat categories you can imagine are present yet; we'll work on that!).

Also, the fantasy price guides are updated as the season progresses and new data are added to the Oliver database, thus changing the projections for the remainder of the season to assist you with waiver wire pick-ups, trades, etc.. You can then return to your price guide at the end of the season to evaluate players and see what they should have been worth before the season started (thus best to transfer and save your pre-season fantasy price guide for comparison).

Note that the fantasy price guide lists players according to their dollar values for an auction draft, but the rankings can still be applied to a snake draft. For a league that uses a points structure, you can switch to the customizable reports, download and open them with your favorite spreadsheet, and then include your stat-cat modifiers to calculate point totals for the players.

Finally, using Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball's default league auction and roto settings, here are the top projected offensive players:

Pos   Players      2012 Value
C     Mike Napoli     $34
1B    Albert Pujols   $55
2B    Dan Uggla       $30
3B    Jose Bautista   $40
SS    Troy Tulowitzki $32
OF    Matt Kemp       $57
OF    Mike Stanton    $47
OF    Ryan Braun      $44
Util  Miguel Cabrera  $52
Util  Joey Votto      $46

THT Forecasts is available for the 2012 season, with Brian Cartwright's Oliver database providing over 9000 projections for major and minor leaguers. Visit Forecasts today to learn more and sign up for only $14.95!

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.

A baseball card mystery: Ken Holtzman’s 1974 Topps card

Bruce Markusen — 2012-01-31T08:28:15+00:00

Whether you call it gold or mustard or just plain old yellow, the color simply glows on the 1974 Topps card of the underrated Ken Holtzman. A’s owner Charlie Finley liked to refer to this color as “California Gold,” which may or may not be available at your local paint store.

In 1964, Finley adorned his Kansas City Athletics in green and gold, making them the first team in major league history to sport multi-colored uniforms (that is, if we don’t consider white and gray to be true colors). The A’s retained that look when they moved to Oakland in 1968. In addition to California Gold, Finley proudly boasted about his A’s wearing “Kelly Green” and “Polar Bear White,” giving the A’s the most distinctive look of any team in the '60s and early '70s.

By 1972, the A’s switched from a button-down, vested look to a pullover design, but retained the green and gold color scheme. They generally wore white pants, switching the jersey color from green to gold on a given day. For Sunday home games, the A’s wore all-white uniforms. Only occasionally during the 1973 and ‘74 seasons did the A’s sport the all-green or the all-gold look, the latter being quite evident on Holtzman’s 1974 card.

Given the relatively few number of times that the A’s used the all-gold uniforms, I’m wondering if it’s possible to pinpoint the exact date of the game seen on the Holtzman card. We have only a few clues. The photo, presumably from the 1973 season, appears to have been taken at the Oakland Coliseum. Obviously, it is a day game. We can assume that it is not a Sunday afternoon game, due to the absence of the all-white uniforms. We also know that Reggie Jackson, seen in the background, was playing the outfield that day, most likely in right field.

This might be our most challenging baseball card mystery to date. Most of the time, I’ve been confident that our sharp readers would come up with a correct answer, and they have. But this time, I’m not so sure due to the lack of information. Do we have a sufficient number of clues to pinpoint the date? Well, it’s worth a shot.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.