Baseball. Blogging. Whenever.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Great Moments in Omertà

No matter what you think of Bonds, Anderson or anyone purposefully thwarting the nation’s rule of law, the level of loyalty here is something to behold. Judge Illston said last week that she can’t find a precedent “where someone was imprisoned for a year during grand jury proceedings and then called to trial and jailed again.”

Every other identified steroid dealer in baseball – Kirk Radomski, Brian McNamee, etc. – quickly made deals with prosecutors, trading information for leniency.

Anderson, on the other hand, has served time not as punishment for something he did, but for something he wouldn’t do, in this case talk. Most folks try to avoid a punishment they deserve. Anderson had already done the time for his crime and double jeopardy laws protect him from further prosecution.

He’s volunteered his freedom to protect Bonds.

Bonds, who made nearly $200 million in salary playing baseball, could agree to take care of Anderson and his family for his loyalty. It’s what the Corleones did for Frank Pentangeli when he played dumb at that congressional hearing.

Doing so is legal. While perceived hush money for a convicted felon might hurt Bonds in the court of public opinion, that’s not the concern anymore.

Too Low for Zero

If only anyone had any money to invest . . .

The stock market is tanking, while real estate values show no signs of coming back any time soon. Ten-year Treasuries are yielding less than 3% interest, as are three-year certificates of deposit.

So where to park your money? Try sports collectibles. Even as a rough economy has shot a soft underbelly into parts of memorabilia world, the steady flow of quality pieces making their way into the market has most prices standing firm.

"Overall, prices are holding their own or appreciating steadily," says Leila Dunbar, a former Sotheby's senior vice president who now runs her own appraisal and consulting business for sports and entertainment collectibles. No one is saying that about any other asset class right now.

Attendance Clauses

In 1997, the St. Louis Cardinals drew 2.63 million fans. So when they signed Mark McGwire, they agreed to give him $1 per for each fan that entered Busch Stadium beyond 2.75 million. McGwire earned $445,691 extra when the home run race of 1998 brought in a then team record 3.19 million fans that season.

In 2002, Kenny Lofton had an attendance clause in his contract that stated that if the White Sox went above a certain attendance number, he'd earn $1.4 million. Lofton was later traded to the Giants and it was eventually negated.

In 2004, Roger Clemens took a hometown discount and agreed to a $5 million deal with the Houston Astros that included attendance incentives. He reportedly earned $3 million from the attendance bump that year.

Comment of the Day

I don’t believe the Alyssa Effect has received sufficient attention by the statistical community. I took a closer look at the data based on dating information provided by this site.

While only 3 of her 26 documented relationships are major league starting pitchers, I think the results are interesting and reasonably predictive in the event she reneges on her 2008 pledge to swear off dating baseball players.

Exhibit A: Carl Pavano (2003)
During their 2003 relationship, Pavano made 33 starts and posting 12 wins with a 4.30 ERA (33/12/4.30). In 2004 after their breakup he improved dramatically to (31/18/3.00). However this euphoria proved short lived, as Yankee fans can attest, and he regressed in 2005 to (17/4/4.77).

Exhibit B: Barry Zito (2004-05)
Zito’s dating numbers averaged (34.5/12.5/4.53), remarkably similar to Pavano’s. After the breakup he also improved in 2006 to (34/16/3.83), nearly as big an improvement as Pavano’s. What happened the year after? You guessed it, regression to (33/11/4.53).

Exhibit C: Brad Penny (2006)
Penny’s dating year of 2006 was also an unspectacular (29/7/3.90). He then experienced what I am now terming the Milano Bounce with a nice (33/16/4.33) and continued this into 2008 with a (33/16/3.03). Because we are not using precise dates on the relationship, the numbers are only estimates but it appears Brad remained mentally strong for a longer period before succumbing to the inevitable Milano Meltdown with a 2009 line of (19/6/6.27).

Conclusions:
For GM’s and fantasy enthusiasts, the conclusions from a small but consistent sample size are: (1) expect mediocrity during the dating period, possibly related to distractions brought on by the newly smitten couple, (2) buy low as soon as a breakup is announced to take advantage of the Milano Bounce, and (3) sell high after one season to be safe before the predictable Milano Meltdown sets in.

MoneyLaw

When asked whether his firm might reduce prices in light of the meltdown, Linklaters senior partner David Cheyne replied, "[Clients] might have doubts as to whether a firm is really able to deliver quality at a suicide rate."

I'm sure Mr. Cheyne is a supremely capable person, and perhaps he was misquoted, but he appears to be saying: quality = cost.

So can Linklaters deliver quality at $900/hour, but not at $700? Does that even begin to make any sense? Of course, if Linklaters can find enough clients who will buy their hours at $900 instead of $700, they will sell their hours for $900--that's how markets set prices. But what does that have to do with quality? If clients will only agree to buy hours at $700, will the firm's lawyers go on a quality sit-down strike? The banks that lost nearly a trillion dollars, were they using the $700 lawyers; and did the banks that avoided losses use the $900 lawyers?
Or does equating quality with cost just obscure our understanding of quality? . . .

. . . In nearly every field our understanding of quality has moved from capabilities to outcomes, from generalities to specifics, from one-shot to systemic, from lore to metrics, from entitlement to performance. As in so many other areas, law is behind this evolution, and now must catch up.

Alyssa Milano writes

Alyssa Milano is in love; she has been for some time. But the object of her affection isn't the subject of tabloid gossip or an actor; in fact, it isn't even a guy. It's a game, a game of nine innings that uses a ball made of leather and cork. A game called baseball.

Now in Safe at Home, Alyssa Milano, the mind behind the bestselling sports-clothing line Touch, tells the story about her lifelong obsession with baseball, revealing what the game has meant to her and why everyone should take a chance on nine innings. Like it does for so many of us, Alyssa's baseball story begins with a father. A native Brooklynite who scorned the Dodgers for abandoning the city he loved, her father was reunited with the team when he and his young daughter moved out west for a fledging TV show called Who's the Boss. It was then that Alyssa learned one of the fundamental truths of the game: No matter where you are, no matter how old you are, baseball connects you to your past.

The Lerners are incredibly cheap

Washington Nationals General Manager Jim Bowden said on Monday that he has done nothing wrong. The federal investigators looking into Bowden still aren't so sure, a source familiar with the investigation said. The Nationals, meantime, are waiting to find out, and want to learn more about Bowden's possible involvement in a growing baseball-wide scandal before they determine whether he retains his job.

But behind the scenes, according to sources, some within the team's ownership group -- which includes Managing Principal Owner Theodore N. Lerner, seven principal owners and nine founding partners -- are eager to cut ties with the general manager they inherited almost three years ago, and see the investigation as a way of facilitating Bowden's exit. The Nationals, one source said, are encouraging the investigation to return an answer on Bowden so the parties can "go on their merry way."

The latest on Manny

The Dodgers open Cactus League play Wednesday; Boras previously told The Times he expected Ramirez to be signed in time for spring training. "When I talk about spring training, I talk about when the games begin," Boras said.

Take 5

The Boston Red Sox today announced that start times for 2009 regular season games played at Fenway Park previously scheduled for 7:05 p.m. will be moved to 7:10 p.m. This time change will not affect games scheduled for other start times, including Sunday match-ups as well as weekday and Saturday matinees.

"During the week approximately 60 percent of our fans enter the ballpark after 6:30 p.m. Moving the starts by even a few minutes will give them a little more time to make it to Fenway Park from work or home, take advantage of pregame festivities and ballpark amenities, and reach their seats before the first pitch.