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Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Comment of the Day

I don’t believe the Alyssa Effect has received sufficient attention by the statistical community. I took a closer look at the data based on dating information provided by this site.

While only 3 of her 26 documented relationships are major league starting pitchers, I think the results are interesting and reasonably predictive in the event she reneges on her 2008 pledge to swear off dating baseball players.

Exhibit A: Carl Pavano (2003)
During their 2003 relationship, Pavano made 33 starts and posting 12 wins with a 4.30 ERA (33/12/4.30). In 2004 after their breakup he improved dramatically to (31/18/3.00). However this euphoria proved short lived, as Yankee fans can attest, and he regressed in 2005 to (17/4/4.77).

Exhibit B: Barry Zito (2004-05)
Zito’s dating numbers averaged (34.5/12.5/4.53), remarkably similar to Pavano’s. After the breakup he also improved in 2006 to (34/16/3.83), nearly as big an improvement as Pavano’s. What happened the year after? You guessed it, regression to (33/11/4.53).

Exhibit C: Brad Penny (2006)
Penny’s dating year of 2006 was also an unspectacular (29/7/3.90). He then experienced what I am now terming the Milano Bounce with a nice (33/16/4.33) and continued this into 2008 with a (33/16/3.03). Because we are not using precise dates on the relationship, the numbers are only estimates but it appears Brad remained mentally strong for a longer period before succumbing to the inevitable Milano Meltdown with a 2009 line of (19/6/6.27).

Conclusions:
For GM’s and fantasy enthusiasts, the conclusions from a small but consistent sample size are: (1) expect mediocrity during the dating period, possibly related to distractions brought on by the newly smitten couple, (2) buy low as soon as a breakup is announced to take advantage of the Milano Bounce, and (3) sell high after one season to be safe before the predictable Milano Meltdown sets in.

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