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Wednesday, August 05, 2009
Did J.P. really “botch” the Halladay business?I'm prepared to admit that there are many reasons to fire J.P. Ricciardi but, contrary to what Heyman says, not trading Roy Halladay is not one of them.
As far as I know, there was never a truly great offer on the table for him. The Indians kind of killed the market anyway by taking as little as they did for Cliff Lee. Contrary to what seems to be increasingly popular belief, Roy Halladay is not now plummeting in value for the Jays. He's extremely valuable and will remain so for a long time, partially because he's a fabulous pitcher and teams need those, but also because losing him would have been a really tough pill to swallow for Jays fans, whose devotion to the team tends to wane as Leafs camp approaches anyway. Simply put: you don't want to give those guys an excuse to bail on you, because in Toronto, they probably will.
Ricciardi should have probably not talked as much about dealing Halladay as much as he did -- I would have said nothing publicly aside from the "we always listen to offers" line -- but by this point you can set your watch by J.P. putting his foot in his mouth. What no one has adequately explained to me yet is why it was so, so, so important to trade Roy Halladay. At least so important that not doing so justifies canning the GM.
Posted by Craig Calcaterra at 3:45pm
TRADE Ricciardi for Minaya- just for some new jollies!
Posted 08/05 at 04:15 PM
Tim Kelly said...
The prevailing opinion seems to be that it was really really really important for JP to trade Roy Halladay before the deadline because he will become less valuable as a trade chip until such time as his deal runs out.
That’s all fine and nearly indisputable but it ignores the reality that the Jays have an alternative: keeping Roy Halladay. He’s an immensely valuable pitcher for Toronto and a key component to any chances they have in 2010.
If I had a $100 bill and I’m given a best possible offer of $75 for it, I think I’d keep it too.
Posted 08/05 at 04:25 PM
I’ve been toying with a theory. What better way to garner attention for a perennial bridesmaid in Cy Young voting than generating trade talk and getting people South of the border to take notice? Maybe there was no actual (or at least very little) intention of trading Halladay, but helping a guy who is consistently amazing get the recognition he deserves…
Posted 08/05 at 04:31 PM
Michael Martin said...
Halladay’s value is the same to be sure, but having a loudmouth like JP be the guy to deal you can’t be helping the Blue Jays’ cause. I think the guy needs to shut his mouth and wait for the right offer when it comes, instead of going off on the idea of trading Halladay all over again.
Posted 08/05 at 04:32 PM
It was so, so, so important for the Jays to trade Doc because the media said it was. Now they look stupid for saying that a trade was inevitable and are trying to cover their own asses by ripping on Ricciardi.
Posted 08/05 at 05:22 PM
Bill B. said...
As Halladay gets closer and closer to free agency, his value will progressively drop. He was never more valuable as a trading chip to the Jays than he was in July this season.
Sure, you can keep a player and be perfectly happy with him; that’s no problem if that’s the mindset you take. However, as a GM, when you realize that the 2009 season is a wash and 2010 likely is as well, and you have a pitcher with a season and a half and over $20 million left on his contract. It’s a good idea to trade that pitcher, unless he is a significant box office draw (and a cursory look at the Jays’ attendance figures doesn’t indicate this is the case).
The Jays will not get as much for Halladay in the off-season or around the July 2010 trading deadline as they could have gotten a week ago. Sure, as time goes on, Halladay gets less expensive which means more teams can afford to pay him (and more competition = more profit) but that is not the only way to measure value. Halladay will also be cheaper to the Jays and they will be more inclined to keep him and the two prospects from his Type A status than trade him for an offer they’re not particularly warm to.
Sorry for rambling, but it was a crucial misstep for the Jays to not trade Halladay. Unless, of course, they legitimately believe they can win the AL East or Wild Card in ‘09 or ‘10.
Posted 08/05 at 08:40 PM
Mike H said...
Halladay’s trade value should have been at its highest at the deadline, yes. His value should be less in the offseason, yes, because a team trading for him will have him for less time. This makes perfect sense. Of course, we’re presuming that the value offered in return matched (or was close enough to) what his value should have been. The Lee trade says this might not have been the case. The only piece of frontline talent they received was a pitcher in low-A, out with shoulder fatigue, with an impressive fastball and much less impressive secondary stuff.
The the offer of $75 for the $100 bill is a great illustration of this, Tim.
Posted 08/06 at 01:18 AM
I don’t think it was a bad move by not trading Halladay this year. The fans in Toronto love Roy, but they are put off by all of the losing, and the play of Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. The ridiculous amount of pitching injuries didn’t help. The really bad move was not trading AJ Burnett at last year’s trade deadline, only to lose him to the New York Billionaires, err, Yankees. In the offseason teams will have certain salaries coming off the books, and Toronto will have better opportunities to find more starting pitching alternatives should they decide to actually trade Roy Halladay. Wishful thinking on certain media for him to be traded this year. Heyman is a joke, i would prefer Olney anytime.
Posted 08/06 at 01:33 AM
Of course he botched it. As much as folks say the Phillies didn’t give up alot for Lee, that was only because they didn’t give up what people think was a future superstar. However Marson, Donald, Carassco all will be major league players, Marson should be a good starting catcher in the league in the mold of Jason Kendall. The x factor is a hard throwing kid like Knapp. If he developes this turns out to be a good deal for Cleveland. Now from Toronto’s standpoint, they are not a good team. They could have got from the Phillies Marson who would replace Barajas immediately at the MLB level, Happ who is pitching like a number 2 in the majors right now, he probably projects to a 3, Donald who could play in a the majors right now, again not a star but a solid player. Long and short of it is I would take 5 solid players on a team like Toronto over 1 star pitcher who pitches every 5th day
Posted 08/06 at 07:37 AM
To go along with your $100 bill analogy. I think its more like this.
So you have a $100 coupon for something but the object is mor than the $100. You hope and hope that the slim chance that something falls under 100 dollars to be able to use the coupon. Well someone tells you, hey i’ll give you $75 cash for your coupon. Do you take the offer because hey, its $75 cash that you can do anything with, or do you hope that a miracle happens and you can buy the object. The only thing is that you have to take the offer right then, if you wait any longer its gonna decrease.
Personally, i think you make the trade, partly because i think it was more like 85/90 for the 100 dollars. And lets face it, the Jays arent making the playoffs next year either, and you either get 4 or 5 prospects who atleast have some upside, where as you get 2 draft picks who maybe you will get lucky with and one will be a superstar in return. Hey its a gamble either way, but you have to take the more sure bet i think.
Posted 08/06 at 08:08 AM
Your $100 dollar bill is gonna walk out of your pocket and sign with the Yankees or Red Sox next season. Take the $75 dollars now that has the potential to turn into $150 in the near future.
Posted 08/06 at 09:20 AM
In trading a pitcher like Roy Halladay - you absolutely must get a solid package headlined by some big upside youth. The reported Phillies package didn’t offer that. The Phils substituted out the 2 guys the Jays wanted (Drabek, Brown)& offered other players. Why should the Jays be crucified for not jumping on that? - because the Tribe took a crap deal? People will mention Knapp & Taylor - but the Jays never got a good look at Knapp because he was hurt (why would they take that kind of chance?) & perhaps they just weren’t enamored with Taylor? Makes sense to me.
Heyman & Stark were the guys losing their minds at the prospects of a Halladay trade. They’re angry they didn’t get the big trade they thought they were promised. Must be real tough for them.
Posted 08/06 at 09:46 AM
Chris Fiorentino said...
The Jays screwed this deal up and here is why; they got way too greedy. The fact is that JP is the worst GM in the AL right now(were Ed Wade still not a GM, JP would be the worst in all of baseball). How he didn’t make a deal for Halladay is insane. Roy clearly wanted to go to a contender. The contender(Phillies, Red Sox) clearly wanted him. How he could not make a deal with either of those teams is dumb.
Who is going to want Halladay in the offseason? And how do we know Halladay is going to waive his no-trade without knowing how well the team is going to play? I mean, he may say “nah, I’ll wait until July 31 to make sure the team I get traded to is going to be good.” And then the Jays are royally screwed…because they don’t get as much for a 2 month playoff-run rental as they could have received this year.
The $100 for $75 trade example is lame, and here is why. That $100 will be worth $60 in the offseason, $40 on July 31st next year, and $0 on August 1st next year.
Posted 08/06 at 10:10 AM
If you guys are going to keep on with the $100 analogy, then this is the deal…
1) Let’s assume Halladay is worth $100.
2) Let’s assume that there were 5 teams in the pennant race, who had the desire for Halladay along with the prospects and money to trade for him without any other moves needed to make salary space. a) Boston b) Texas c) Philadelphia d) Los Angeles - AL e) Los Angeles - NL
3) Assuming that they were offered $80 for the $100. Realize that $100 will be worth $90 after the season.
4) Teams enter every season looking with hope at the upcoming season, meaning that now you have teams who can move payroll (Tampa Bay, New York - NL, Atlanta) to make a run at him, which adds to the suitors.
5) Chances are with more suitors for Halladay’s services, teams are going to give you $90-95 to get the player they believe puts them over the top. So while they will most likely never get $100 in value, it’s reasonable to expect $90 and maybe even $95.
6) One of the biggest problems was that many of the teams were trying to buy in the wrong currency. They were giving maybe even $90 for the $100, like the Rangers were, but the problem is that they were giving it in $90 worth of Euros. The problem is that it cost money to have somebody transfer your currency.
7) What the Rangers were giving wasn’t exactly what the Blue Jays need, they didn’t need a ton of pitching, and they didn’t need an awesome hitting 1B. They needed middle infield help, something Texas wasn’t willing to part with (see Andrus). The Phillies had Donalds and Drabek, two of the things that the Blue Jays wanted, but they were offering $80 on the $100, which is the same thing as having to exchange currency.
8) Toronto wanted at least $90 for their $100, knowing full well that $90 would become $150 (sticking with the said number for the sake of argument), but they didn’t want $80 for their $100 and they didn’t want $90 worth of Euros for their $100. Phillies didn’t want to give up enough and the Rangers didn’t want to give the right currency.
My guess is that Halladay ends up a Blue Jay in the offseason. They’ll just miss the playoffs in TB and so ownership will do what is necessary to secure a playoff roster. Kazmir will be traded for a couple prospects, probably to Seattle to replace Bedard leaving through free agency. Crawford will be traded, maybe also to Seattle with a need in LF and a supposed 3-way deal for Kazmir being talked about during the deadline. Either way Crawford and Kazmir will be off the payroll with Joyce taking over one corner in the outfield and Jennings taking over the other. The extra salary room will make Halladay’s contract do-able. Tampa DOES have the prospects to get a deal done and enough of them to not worry about paying market value. Figure the trade would be Jeremy Hellickson, Jeff Niemann, Reid Brignac, and Fernando Perez… They might even get them to throw in John Jason to make it 5 for 1. This gives them a middle infielder, a centerfielder, two starters, and potentially a catcher could be added to the mix, filling their needed holes longer term, which can’t be accounted for by their system. The trades of Kazmir and Crawford should bring 4-5 prospects of equal or maybe a little less than what they would give up for Halladay, but they would probably be younger prospects that will spread the talent through their system better.
I think bringing out Halladay before the deadline was to see what teams wanted to give, then the Jays told the enquiring teams what they wanted in return to give up Halladay, and finally teams will know to put Halladay on their winter meeting shopping list, and that probably effected a lot of teams and how they did business at the deadline. I think Milwaukee for one is planning to wait until the offseason and then make a move for Halladay… Trading for Washburn or Lee would have crippled their system and made Halladay a dream, but now they can go for him in the offseason with a package revolving around J.J. Hardy, Corey Hart, Manny Parra, and maybe another talented young arm like Jeremy Jeffress. They would get their stud ace to lead the rotation with Gallardo as a very talented #2. They could put Escobar at SS to start the season next year, bringing up an OF prospect like Lorenzo Cain to throw out a name or sign somebody on the cheap to man RF. Halladay would easily replace whatever value Parra gave to the rotation, and as talented as Jeffress is, he’s still too far from the majors for his golden arm being traded to even cause a tremor on the parent club.
Posted 08/06 at 10:32 AM
Chris Fiorentino said...
@Kurt “Tampa DOES have the prospects to get a deal done and enough of them to not worry about paying market value. Figure the trade would be Jeremy Hellickson, Jeff Niemann, Reid Brignac, and Fernando Perez… They might even get them to throw in John Jason to make it 5 for 1.”
You are ABSOLUTELY INSANE if you think that ANY TEAM is going to give up 5 prospects for a one year rental of Roy Halladay…because that is what it will be for Tampa.
Posted 08/06 at 10:37 AM
My guess is that Halladay ends up a Blue Jay in the offseason.
My guess is that Halladay ends up staying a Blue Jay until the offseason.
Meaning that he won’t clear waivers to be traded, even as much as everyone says it could be easy to clear a player with so much owed like Halladay.
Posted 08/06 at 10:37 AM
For one thing missing the playoffs in a mid market city with a small market attendance will make you overpay for talent to keep what fans you have coming through the door. Additionally, I said MAYBE FIVE, not definitely 5 and they would be keeping Davis, Jennings, Price, Beckham, etc. It’s not like they would be giving away their top prospects. Trading prospect for prospect never happens, but if it did, I guarantee you that Neftali Perez, Justin Smoak, Derek Holland, and Julio Borbon (the supposed package) would crap all over the 5 guys I just listed from the Rays, but it’s one of the few teams besides the Brewers that could give up a talented young SS in the deal. Stop focusing on the number five and start focusing on the talent level. The Rangers were going to trade away TWO “A” level prospects, ONE “B+” level prospect, and ONE “B” level prospect. The guys I listed are TWO “B-”, THREE “C+”... Gain some perspective before you start talking to me about your ability to count to 5.
Posted 08/06 at 10:48 AM
Chris Fiorentino said...
@Kurt “The Rangers were going to trade away TWO “A” level prospects, ONE
This makes my point exactly…JP blew it when he did not make the trade at the deadline. If you think the four guys they were “offered” from the Rangers at the deadline would “crap all over” the five you think they will be able to get during the offseason, then what you are essentially saying is that JP screwed up and should have taken the deal at the deadline.
Posted 08/06 at 11:51 AM
Craig Calcaterra said...
Halladay was reported to have nixed any trade to the Rangers and would not have dropped is no trade clause for such a deal.
Posted 08/06 at 11:54 AM
Chris Fiorentino said...
@Craig “Halladay was reported to have nixed any trade to the Rangers and would not have dropped is no trade clause for such a deal. “
If this report is true, doesn’t it make JP look like an even bigger ass for talking to a team before he gets an OK from Halladay? The guy is a buffoon and should immediately be fired at season’s end.
Posted 08/06 at 11:59 AM