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Wednesday, August 05, 2009
Did J.P. really “botch” the Halladay business?I'm prepared to admit that there are many reasons to fire J.P. Ricciardi but, contrary to what Heyman says, not trading Roy Halladay is not one of them.
As far as I know, there was never a truly great offer on the table for him. The Indians kind of killed the market anyway by taking as little as they did for Cliff Lee. Contrary to what seems to be increasingly popular belief, Roy Halladay is not now plummeting in value for the Jays. He's extremely valuable and will remain so for a long time, partially because he's a fabulous pitcher and teams need those, but also because losing him would have been a really tough pill to swallow for Jays fans, whose devotion to the team tends to wane as Leafs camp approaches anyway. Simply put: you don't want to give those guys an excuse to bail on you, because in Toronto, they probably will.
Ricciardi should have probably not talked as much about dealing Halladay as much as he did -- I would have said nothing publicly aside from the "we always listen to offers" line -- but by this point you can set your watch by J.P. putting his foot in his mouth. What no one has adequately explained to me yet is why it was so, so, so important to trade Roy Halladay. At least so important that not doing so justifies canning the GM.
Posted by Craig Calcaterra at 3:45pm
Jeff Passan over at Yahoo! is a good writer, but his article arguing that Riccardi should be canned for not trading Roy Halladay (the best pitcher in baseball since 2001) was simply wrong. The beauty of owning the rights to a perennial Cy Young candidate is that you, and only you, own those rights. JP only should have traded Roy Halladay is the right offer was presented; that offer never came, so JP rightly held onto Halladay. As you say, he probably should have kept his mouth shut, but arguing he should be canned for not making a bad trade is wrong-headed. Passan (and other writers arguin g that Riccardi should be canned for not making a bad deal) might want to think about sticking his foot in his mouth on this one.
Posted 08/06 at 01:32 PM
Posted 08/06 at 01:35 PM
Chris Fiorentino said...
The right offer was presented by the Phillies. Happ, Carrasco, Marson, Donald, and Knapp would have gotten it done. That is 5 of the Phillies top 10 prospects at the beginning of 2009 according to Baseball America. Happ is ready now, Carrasco has #2 stuff. Some scouts say Knapp is better than Drabek. Marson would be a good replacement for Barajas. JP chickened out on the deal, and when he gets his pink slip at the end of this year, he will regret not making the deal.
Posted 08/06 at 01:36 PM
Chris Fiorentino said...
Peavy had Atlanta on his list of 5 teams, and then nixed the trade, so he screwed the Pads on that one. Then they figured they would do a deal without asking, since when they asked, it didn’t matter anyway.
Posted 08/06 at 01:38 PM
Posted 08/06 at 01:38 PM
First of all, I respect each and every one of your opinions. I’m not saying any person is right or wrong, but I’m going to throw a few things down on the table that I think answers the question “Should J.P. be fired?”.
First of all, you don’t set the market for your own players—the market sets itself. You can say all you want about Player A being worth $100 but if teams are only willing to bid $75-$80 for him, then he is not worth $100. It just means your asking price is ridiculous (as it was in this case, IMHO). And yes, that value dropped SIGNIFICANTLY on August 1st, 2009. Halladay wouldn’t net half of what Texas or Philly offered in the off-season no matter how many teams are bidding on him.
Secondly, you HAVE to make a deal. The currency of baseball has changed from dollars to prospects because the interest rate on prospects is much, much higher. If you get offered five or six highly rated players with huge upside, you take the deal. Doesn’t matter how close they are to the big leagues or if they don’t fit in with your immediate needs. Those things have a way of working themselves out—either a need in those areas will arise or you can trade those prospects for other players/prospects that do fill a need. Look at Texas’s return from Atlanta in the Mark Teixeira heist of 2007: Saltalamacchia (starting catcher), Andrus (starting short-stop), Harrison (starting pitcher), Feliz (bullpen pitcher), and Jones (still in minor leagues). Only one of those guys was MLB ready—Salty—and even that was debateable. But it didn’t matter because Texas was going to have to take that gamble to re-invent themselves as a contender, something Ricciardi didn’t realize was necessary for the Blue Jays (face it, there is extremely little chance Toronto makes the playoffs this season or next). Just two years later, Texas has found itself in the heart of a pennant race, reaching 15 games over .500 and getting contributions from four of those five players. And look at what Teixeira netted Atlanta in 2008: Casey Kotchman and Steven Marek. That now looks like Adam LaRoche and Steven Marek.
I hate to break it to you Jays fans, but J.P. just forced Toronto into taking LaRoche and Marek instead of Andrus, Feliz, Salty, Harrison, and Jones. So yes, he needs to be fired and not trading Halladay is the straw.
Posted 08/06 at 02:17 PM
Halladay currently makes 14.25 M per season and he probably will get around 22 M per season when he signs elsewhere. Personally, if I were the Jays, I would try to resign him for 22 M or more.
Trade the overpaid guys not the underpaid ones and who cares what you get for Overbay because you gave up nothing to get him in the first place.
Posted 08/06 at 03:32 PM
Mike H said...
Hey Pat, I see where you’re coming from on your first point - the market will dictate the trade value. It’s right, of course in that if I have a shiny bauble and you offer me 5 magic beans and someone else offers me 7, the market has been set at 7. If a legitimate market doesn’t materialize for a player at a given time, however, and there is no impetus to deal, why sell low? Sabathia netted a near-ready top prospect plus a couple good secondary ones for a 2 month rental last year. Holliday did the same. This is the floor at the trade deadline next year, and the value only goes up before that. There was no reason JP should settle for less than 2 top prospects that are near-ready, plus talent on the back end of the deal. That’s probably still the starting point this winter. A Kyle Drabek should not be a roadblock to acquiring a perennial Cy Young contender for a year and a half. Not if you’re serious about it. That Cleveland seemed to want low-upside filler-spects (and Knapp) isn’t JPs fault, nor is it something he should necessarily emulate.
As for your second point, if you don’t get a legitimate offer, there is absolutely no reason to make a trade. It absolutely does matter how close prospects are to the big leagues, especially pitchers - this helps with certainty. The Tex trade in particular had Salty ready and Harrison near-ready. Looking at the reported Happ, Drabek, Brown request, Happ has had 1/2 year in the majors, Drabek has 1/2 year at AA, and Brown was at high A at the time. Salty was in the majors, Harrison was at AA for the whole season, and Andrus was at high-A. Given where they were at and what their regard was, these were quite comparable. And as far as we know, Toronto wasn’t also asking for someone who threw 100mph.
Basically, if you’re not getting a couple top prospects and more for a year and a half superstar level pitcher, you’re not getting enough, and you don’t make the trade. Near history has shown that’s what the market will bare… since it wasn’t, JP took his shiny bauble and went home for today. Don’t worry, though, he’ll be back out tomorrow.
Maybe I’m being dumb, but how is 2 top prospects and a #4-5 pitcher an unreasonable starting point? Continuing to use the Philly offer as an example, I’m sure if they didn’t want to give up a pitcher who they might move to the bullpen in favor of Pedro, they could have found an alternative configuration.
I gotta get this posted before I keep rambling.
Posted 08/06 at 04:22 PM
“If I had a $100 bill and I’m given a best possible offer of $75 for it, I think I’d keep it too.”
Not if that $100 bill was walking away next year. Idiot.
Posted 08/06 at 05:22 PM
I think the better analogy is having a $1000 car that someone will give you $800 for now, $600 for in 6 months, $400 for in 1 year, and $100 for in a year and a half, but if you sell the car you have to quit your job because you need the car to get there.
Posted 08/06 at 09:15 PM
I live just outside Toronto so I’m close to all the local media stuff. J.P has got to go,almost eight years for him and not even a sniff of playoffs. Love Halladay to death but he’s walking after next season there is no building around him. If the Yanks or Bosox offer is good,take it and run. All of Roys success has been in the A.L and he has admitted he does not like hitting. Not to mention he’s a work horse so the N.L would be his secondary choice. There is a good chance Roy signs with one of the above mentioned teams anyway as the only two teams in the past 13 yrs. to make the playoffs has been the Rays. Halladay wants to win and has taken a hometown discount before on his last contract.He deserves a legit. shot at a title as much as anyone.Lastly Do we really want J.P in charge of making this deal anyway? not me. either way best time to deal in my opinion is the winter meetings or spring training don’t let it go into the season to long or you’ll be at the other teams mercy cause they know he’ll be leaving at season end.
Posted 08/06 at 09:18 PM