@Chris -
Disagree; GM’s always get deals in place first before they ask permission to make a deal.  Same thing happened with Peavy earlier this season; Padres had a deal in place to send Peavy to Atlanta, then Peavy said he didn’t want to pitch in Atlanta.  Then they had a deal in place to send Peavy to Chicago, and Peavy nixed that one too.  You don’t go to the player first; GM’s almost always line the deal up and then seek permission from the player.

@JT

Peavy had Atlanta on his list of 5 teams, and then nixed the trade, so he screwed the Pads on that one.  Then they figured they would do a deal without asking, since when they asked, it didn’t matter anyway.

Hey guys,

First of all, I respect each and every one of your opinions. I’m not saying any person is right or wrong, but I’m going to throw a few things down on the table that I think answers the question “Should J.P. be fired?”.

First of all, you don’t set the market for your own players—the market sets itself.  You can say all you want about Player A being worth $100 but if teams are only willing to bid $75-$80 for him, then he is not worth $100. It just means your asking price is ridiculous (as it was in this case, IMHO).  And yes, that value dropped SIGNIFICANTLY on August 1st, 2009. Halladay wouldn’t net half of what Texas or Philly offered in the off-season no matter how many teams are bidding on him.

Secondly, you HAVE to make a deal. The currency of baseball has changed from dollars to prospects because the interest rate on prospects is much, much higher.  If you get offered five or six highly rated players with huge upside, you take the deal.  Doesn’t matter how close they are to the big leagues or if they don’t fit in with your immediate needs.  Those things have a way of working themselves out—either a need in those areas will arise or you can trade those prospects for other players/prospects that do fill a need.  Look at Texas’s return from Atlanta in the Mark Teixeira heist of 2007: Saltalamacchia (starting catcher), Andrus (starting short-stop), Harrison (starting pitcher), Feliz (bullpen pitcher), and Jones (still in minor leagues).  Only one of those guys was MLB ready—Salty—and even that was debateable. But it didn’t matter because Texas was going to have to take that gamble to re-invent themselves as a contender, something Ricciardi didn’t realize was necessary for the Blue Jays (face it, there is extremely little chance Toronto makes the playoffs this season or next).  Just two years later, Texas has found itself in the heart of a pennant race, reaching 15 games over .500 and getting contributions from four of those five players.  And look at what Teixeira netted Atlanta in 2008: Casey Kotchman and Steven Marek. That now looks like Adam LaRoche and Steven Marek.

I hate to break it to you Jays fans, but J.P. just forced Toronto into taking LaRoche and Marek instead of Andrus, Feliz, Salty, Harrison, and Jones. So yes, he needs to be fired and not trading Halladay is the straw.

Hey Pat, I see where you’re coming from on your first point - the market will dictate the trade value. It’s right, of course in that if I have a shiny bauble and you offer me 5 magic beans and someone else offers me 7, the market has been set at 7. If a legitimate market doesn’t materialize for a player at a given time, however, and there is no impetus to deal, why sell low? Sabathia netted a near-ready top prospect plus a couple good secondary ones for a 2 month rental last year. Holliday did the same. This is the floor at the trade deadline next year, and the value only goes up before that. There was no reason JP should settle for less than 2 top prospects that are near-ready, plus talent on the back end of the deal. That’s probably still the starting point this winter. A Kyle Drabek should not be a roadblock to acquiring a perennial Cy Young contender for a year and a half. Not if you’re serious about it. That Cleveland seemed to want low-upside filler-spects (and Knapp) isn’t JPs fault, nor is it something he should necessarily emulate.

As for your second point, if you don’t get a legitimate offer, there is absolutely no reason to make a trade. It absolutely does matter how close prospects are to the big leagues, especially pitchers - this helps with certainty. The Tex trade in particular had Salty ready and Harrison near-ready. Looking at the reported Happ, Drabek, Brown request, Happ has had 1/2 year in the majors, Drabek has 1/2 year at AA, and Brown was at high A at the time. Salty was in the majors, Harrison was at AA for the whole season, and Andrus was at high-A. Given where they were at and what their regard was, these were quite comparable. And as far as we know, Toronto wasn’t also asking for someone who threw 100mph.

Basically, if you’re not getting a couple top prospects and more for a year and a half superstar level pitcher, you’re not getting enough, and you don’t make the trade. Near history has shown that’s what the market will bare… since it wasn’t, JP took his shiny bauble and went home for today. Don’t worry, though, he’ll be back out tomorrow.

Maybe I’m being dumb, but how is 2 top prospects and a #4-5 pitcher an unreasonable starting point? Continuing to use the Philly offer as an example, I’m sure if they didn’t want to give up a pitcher who they might move to the bullpen in favor of Pedro, they could have found an alternative configuration.

I gotta get this posted before I keep rambling.

I think the better analogy is having a $1000 car that someone will give you $800 for now, $600 for in 6 months, $400 for in 1 year, and $100 for in a year and a half, but if you sell the car you have to quit your job because you need the car to get there.